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Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr.

Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024

The Reko Diq deposit is in the Balochistan province. (Image courtesy of Barrick Gold.)

BACKGROUND: TORONTO – December 15, 2022 - Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD)(TSX:ABX) said today that
it had completed the reconstitution of the massive $7 billion Reko Diq project, having received a favorable opinion
from the Supreme Court of Pakistan and the required legislation having been passed into law.

One of the largest undeveloped copper-gold projects in the world, Reko Diq is owned 50% by Barrick, 25% by three
federal state-owned enterprises, 15% by the Province of Balochistan on a fully funded basis and 10% by the Province
of Balochistan on a free carried basis.

Barrick president and chief executive Mark Bristow said the completion of the legal processes was a key step in
progressing the development of Reko Diq into a world-class, long-life mine which would expand the company’s
strategically significant copper portfolio and benefit its Pakistani stakeholders for generations to come.

“We are currently updating the project’s 2010 feasibility and 2011 feasibility expansion studies. This should be
completed by 2024, with 2028 targeted for first production,” Bristow said. Barrick plans to deliver production from
Phase 1 in 2028 at a cost of around $4 billion, with Phase 2 to follow in five years at a cost of $3 billion.

“With its unique combination of large scale, low strip, and good grade, Reko Diq is expected to have a life of at least
40 years. We envisage a truck-and-shovel open pit operation with processing facilities producing a high-quality
copper-gold concentrate. We expect it to be constructed in two phases with a combined process capacity of eighty
million tonnes per annum.”

Reko Diq will be a major contributor to Pakistan’s economy which is expected to have a transformative impact on
the underdeveloped Balochistan province where, in addition to the economic benefits it will generate, the mine will
also create jobs, promote the growth of a regional economy, and invest in development programs. The province’s
interest in the mine will be fully funded, which means that Balochistan will reap the dividends, royalties, and other
benefits of its 25% shareholding without having to contribute financially to its construction and operation.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
“Reko Diq’s ownership structure is a further manifestation of Barrick’s commitment to partnership with its host
countries and communities and to sharing the value our operations create fairly with all our stakeholders,” Bristow
said.

“We are making sure that Balochistan and its people will see these benefits quickly. Starting early next year, Barrick
will implement a range of social development programs prioritizing the improvement of healthcare, education,
vocational training, food security and the provision of potable water. Our investment in these is expected to amount
to around $70 million over the feasibility and construction period. In addition, Reko Diq will advance royalties to the
government of Balochistan of up to $50 million until commercial production starts.”

During peak construction, the project is expected to employ 7,500 people and once in production it will create
around 4,000 long-term jobs. As elsewhere in the group, Barrick prioritizes the employment of local people and host
country nationals.

Bristow said Barrick already had the industry's best gold assets and the addition of Reko Diq would promote its
copper portfolio into the world-class league, accelerating the company towards its goal of creating the world's most
valued gold and copper mining business.1

1 Massive Reko Diq Project Gets All Clear, Barrick Starts Updating Plans -
https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2022/massive-reko-diq-project-gets-all-clear-barrick-starts-
updating-plans/default.aspxEnquiries: Investor and Media Relations - Kathy du Plessis
+44 20 7557 7738 - Email: barrick@dpapr.com
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
Study Questions:
1. Country risk. Prepare an assessment for Pakistan with a focus on mining issues. Use country reports, IMF Article
IV’s, country ratings briefs from the major credit agencies – as available, and any other sources you wish to
incorporate. Review the ratings history – Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch. What is the bond market saying
about risk and return in Pakistan – use 10-year yield to maturity data to help quantify the country risks;
furthermore, please look at how the yields have changed over the last ten years – if you can? Fundamentally,
ask if Pakistan is a good country for major mining investments. How important is the mining industry to Pakistan?
What is Pakistan’s Gini Index and the literacy rate for women; compare this data with Chile, China, India,
Mozambique, Peru, South Africa, and the United States.
Overall, what do you conclude about Pakistan’s country risk – meaning both the politics of the country and its
economic prospects.
See links:
2022 Article IV Report from the IMF – imf.org - 1PAKEA2022001 (1).pdf and
Pakistan (PAK) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners | The Observatory of Economic Complexity
(oec.world)
Pakistan: Hard work for a fragile government | Coface

2. History of mine. Briefly summarize how Barrick became involved with the Reko Diq project and the
ownership structure now. What was the role of the Chief of Army Staff in resolving the dispute concerning
Reko Diq?
3. Commodity risks. Reko Diq is, mostly, a gold, and copper mine. Prepare an assessment of price history in the
global copper and gold markets. FRED has commodity prices. What do you estimate prices of each commodity
will be in 2028? What factors influence international demand for copper and gold? The website www.gold.org
may be quite helpful.
4. Cash Costs. Is Reko Diq a low-cost producer? Given what you know about this project, or can surmise, and the
prices of gold and copper, is the mine financially viable given reasonable assumptions? If Reko Diq is primarily a
copper mine, what sort of copper price does Barrick need to make the project viable – assume that the non-
financial challenges have been dealt with? You do not need to prepare a full financial model. Does the mine
have “technology” risk; if so, describe the risks and how these should be managed?
5. Free Cash Flow. Consider Barrick’s FCF position over the last ten years, in general. Use FactSet to help you assess
Barrick’s FCF challenges and performance on that score as well as any discernable impact of the FCF on share
price. How does NOPAT, or Barrick’s equivalent, compare with their Capital Expenditures. How do commodity
prices and cash extraction costs figure into the equation, especially as these metrics pertain to Reko Diq? Are
they moving targets? How important is Reko Diq to Barrick’s portfolio of cash flows, by amount and geographical
diversification? Can Barrick’s management manage this project, meaning “are they good operators”?
For the Reko Diq Project, how do you think about an appropriate discount rate. Start with the country risk
premium, the spread between Pakistan’s 10-year bond yield and the U.S.’s 10-year bond yield. Then, as you
deem appropriate, adjust for the industry risk – mining.
6. Financing. The financing for this project is expected to be 50% Debt and 50% Equity.
• What is the difference between Corporate Finance and Project Finance? See your notes on the Chad Cameroon
pipeline – the presentation is posted on Brightspace.
• Major international banks, including Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank of Canada, Citibank N.A., HSBC, Habib Bank
– Pakistan, Standard Chartered Bank, UBS – Zurich, Barclays Bank plc – London, Deutsche Bank, BNP – Paris,
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group – Japan, Industrial and Commercial
Bank of China and China Construction Bank are expected to lead and arrange the Debt syndicate.
• Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Nomura – Japan will manage the Equity underwriting.
• Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund has made noises about investing $1 billion in this project.
• Major Export Credit Agencies and Multilateral Credit Agencies including IFC are expected to join in the financing
with a mix of debt, subordinated debt, and equity.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
• Tranches of Islamic finance and Commodity loans will be considered too. In the aftermath of Pakistan’s recent
election, there seems to be a move toward more Islamic finance – how would that work? While the project
will produce gold, copper will be the most important metal produced.
• As discussed in class, consider the importance of the following – Off-Take Agreement, Cash Sweep, Revenue
Management Plan2
7. Environment and Indigenous Peoples. Comment on any environmental challenges – especially water, and the
rights of Indigenous peoples - as appropriate. See Las Bambas, Peru presentation – posted on Brightspace.
8. Completion risk. – Consider the cases we have studied to date. Discuss how you would measure “Completion” for
this project and compare that test with the other projects – The Airbus A380, Nord Stream 2, and Alba. Discuss
where the “deep pockets” are in this case.

What You Have to Do:


As a first step, read the materials /articles referenced below and posted on Brightspace. Second, consider the study
questions and what additional research may be required to write a short management report about the issues facing
Barrick and the government of Pakistan.
Put yourself in the position of the Bank of Montreal, (“BMO”) or any other financial institution that might participate
in the deal. As the head of the mining group at BMO in Toronto, are you prepared to support up to $750 million in
loans and other credit facilities to Barrick for the Reko Diq, Pakistan project.3 What do you need to do to convince
BMO’s risk management executives to approve the credits with respect to mitigation of the risks; after all, the bank
will want to be repaid in an orderly manner. Stipulate terms and conditions, including cash flow tests as you deem
appropriate, use your imagination and common sense. 4
• Talk to your classmates over the course of the next three weeks to frame issues. That said, your deliverable
reports are to be done on an individual basis. Please submit one file electronically to puhlmann@bentley.edu
• Submissions should include:
• Title page – Please include your name and student number. Please keep the graphics simple.
• Executive Summary – one page – it is a good idea to raise section headings from the study questions and bullet
points to support your findings and conclusions - use a smaller font to make it fit. Use data when you can;
mitigate risks wherever possible. Be clear about what you, as the Bank of Montreal, want to do with this
opportunity.
• Text and primary analyses, including any tables, charts, calculations, and other appendices – not exceeding
five additional pages of text and exhibits. You do not need to repeat the study questions, rather develop
headings of your own that summarize the thrust of your arguments. i Please number the pages of your paper.
Please do not use fonts smaller than 10 and spacing of less than 1.15, except for exhibits where smaller fonts
are acceptable. Kindly respect the page limit. References do not count toward the page limit.
• “Assume that you have never had an original idea in your life,” footnote everything. 5 The paper must
include, at least, twenty (20) footnotes in proper form. Use http://www.bibme.org/ to help you. Please use
the Chicago Manual of Style. For help with your bibliography please use: https://www.grammarly.com/ to
help you.

2
In the Chad-Cameroon Pipeline case, the Revenue Management Plan was put in place to distribute revenues, it
was a good idea on paper. But the RMP had a serious flaw – no one had imagined that the price of oil would spike
as high as it did. The government of Chad was able to cream off the extra revenues from the higher oil prices and
buy more weapons.
3
BMO is a relationship bank for Barrick.
4
The basics of lending money – 1. What is it for? 2. When are we getting it back? 3. What are they giving us –
collateral or cash flow covenants? 4. Are they smart? 5. How much do we make? Wise words from the late great
Paul Farrar, SVP, Special Loans, CIBC, Toronto.
5
A quote from Stephen Saunders Webb, Professor of History Emeritus, Maxwell School, Syracuse University
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
• Any Artificial Intelligence not properly cited will be deemed a violation of the Honor Code.
• Please ask if you have questions.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
Neighborhood Map6:

Resources:
Interview with CEO Mark Bristow - short
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7NTcbode4I

https://www.mining.com/barrick-gold-to-go-ahead-with-7bn-reko-diq-project/
Barrick Gold to go ahead with $7bn Reko Diq project in Pakistan.
Cecilia Jamasmie | December 15, 2022 | 9:58 am Intelligence News Top Companies Asia Canada Copper Gold

Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD)(TSX:ABX) is going ahead with construction of its Reko Diq copper and gold project in
Pakistan after the country’s top court cleared the path for the Canadian miner.
Receiving the court’s endorsement was a condition outlined in the settlement reached by Barrick and the
government of Pakistan in early December to resume work on Reko Diq.
The project, which hosts one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits, has been on hold since
2011 due to a dispute over the legality of its licensing process.
Barrick solved the long-running clash with Pakistan in March this year, reaching a preliminary out-of-court
deal that cleared the path for a final agreement on how to run the mine and profit-sharing arrangements.
Chief executive Mark Bristow said the completion of the legal processes was a key step in progressing Reko Diq
into a world-class, long-life mine, which will boost Barrick’s copper portfolio.
The Toronto-based gold giant plans to invest $10 billion in the massive project, located in the southwestern
province of Balochistan, bordering Afghanistan and Iran.

6
Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Pakistan-insurgents-behind-China-attacks-
threaten-Barrick-Gold-mine
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
“We are currently updating the project’s 2010 feasibility and 2011 feasibility expansion studies. This should be
completed by 2024,” Bristow said.
Two-phased plan
Reko Diq’s conceptual design calls for an open pit with a life of more than 40 years. It would be built in two phases,
starting with a plant that will be able to process about 40 million tonnes of ore per annum, which could be doubled
in five years. Barrick plans to deliver production from Phase 1 in 2028 at a cost of around $4 billion, with Phase 2
to follow in five years at a cost of $3 billion.
The gold miner owns 50% of Reko Diq, with the rest divided 25% by three federal state-owned enterprises, 15% by
the Province of Balochistan on a fully funded basis and 10% by the Province of Balochistan on a free carried basis.
“Reko Diq’s ownership structure is a further manifestation of Barrick’s commitment to partnership with its host
countries and communities and to sharing the value our operations create fairly with all our stakeholders,” Bristow
said.
During peak construction, the project is expected to employ 7,500 people and once in production it will create
4,000 long-term jobs during the expected 40-year life of the mine.

MORE
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
https://www.mining.com/barrick-targets-2028-for-first-production-from-reko-diq/MAPS

Barrick targets 2028 for first production from Reko Diq


Staff Writer | January 16, 2023 | 12:21 pm Top Companies Asia Copper Gold

Barrick Gold has targeted 2028 as the year of first production for Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper-gold mine. Barrick
Gold photo

Having recently received the go-ahead for its Reko Diq project in Pakistan, Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX) is now targeting
2028 for first production from the giant copper-gold mine.
On Monday, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow informed respective Pakistani authorities that following the completion of
the legal processes and definitive transaction agreements last month, the company now plans to finish the Reko
Diq feasibility study update by the end of 2024 and aims for first production by 2028.
Should all go to plan, Reko Diq will be the first copper-gold mine in the country’s Balochistan province.
Bristow, accompanied by senior Barrick executives, had met with Balochistan chief minister Abdul Quddus Bizenjo
and other provincial leaders to brief them on the extensive social and economic development opportunities that
would be generated by the mine, which is projected to have a life of at least 40 years.
The meeting, according to Barrick, was attended by a wide spectrum of provincial stakeholders and leaders,
including opposition leader Malik Sikandar Khan and leaders of the Balochistan Awami Party, Jamiat Ullema Islam,
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, and Awami National Party.
After the meeting, Bristow and Khan signed a memorandum of agreement which specifies the timetable for the
disbursement of committed funds to the province. The agreement provides for an initial payment of $3 million this
month and includes advanced royalties and social development funds, ensuring that the people of Balochistan
start earning benefits from the project well before the mine goes into production.
In December 2022, Barrick announced plans to invest $10 billion as part of its intent to go ahead with the
construction of Reko Diq following approval from Pakistan’s top court. The project has been over a decade in the
making and is said to boast the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
The gold miner owns 50% of Reko Diq, with the rest divided as follows: 25% by three federal state-owned
enterprises, 15% by the Province of Balochistan on a fully funded basis, and 10% by the Province of Balochistan on
a free-carried basis.
Reko Diq is expected to have a life of at least 40 years as a truck-and-shovel open pit operation with processing
facilities capable of producing high-quality copper-gold concentrates in the amount of 80 million tonnes annually.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
RATING ACTION COMMENTARY

Fitch Downgrades Pakistan to 'CCC-'


Tue 14 Feb 2023 - 6:56 AM ET
Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 14 Feb 2023: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Pakistan's Long-Term Foreign-Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC-', from 'CCC+'. There is no Outlook assigned, as Fitch typically does not assign
Outlooks to ratings of 'CCC+' or below.
A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Further Worsening in Liquidity, Policy Risks: The downgrade reflects a further sharp deterioration in external
liquidity and funding conditions, and the decline of foreign-exchange (FX) reserves to critically low levels. While we
assume a successful conclusion of the ninth review of Pakistan's IMF programme, the downgrade also reflects large
risks to continued programme performance and funding, including in the run-up to this year's elections. Default or
debt restructuring is an increasingly real possibility, in our view.
Reserves Under Pressure: Liquid net FX reserves of the State Bank of Pakistan were about USD2.9 billion on 3
February 2023, or less than three weeks of imports, down from a peak of more than USD20 billion at end-August
2021. Falling reserves reflect large, albeit declining, current account deficits (CADs), external debt servicing and
earlier FX intervention by the central bank, particularly in 4Q22, when an informal exchange-rate cap appears to
have been in place. We expect reserves to remain at low levels, though we do forecast a modest recovery during
the remainder of FY23, due to anticipated inflows and the recent removal of the exchange rate cap.
Large Refinancing Risks: External public-debt maturities in the remainder of the fiscal year ending June 2023
(FY23) amount to over USD7 billion and will remain high in FY24. Of the USD7 billion remaining for FY23, USD3
billion represent deposits from China (SAFE) that are likely to be rolled over, and USD1.7 billion are loans from
Chinese commercial banks which we also assume will be refinanced soon. The SAFE deposits are scheduled to
mature in two instalments: USD2 billion in March and USD1 billion in June.
CAD Declining but May Widen Again: Pakistan's CAD was USD3.7 billion in 2H22, down from USD9 billion in 2H21.
As such, we forecast a full-year deficit of USD4.7 billion (1.5% of GDP) in FY23 after USD17 billion (4.6% of GDP) in
FY22. The narrowing of the CAD has been driven by restrictions on imports and FX availability, as well as by fiscal
tightening, higher interest rates and measures to limit energy consumption.
Reported backlogs of unpaid imports in Pakistan's ports indicate that the CAD could increase once more funding
becomes available. Nevertheless, exchange-rate depreciation could limit the rise, as the authorities intend for
imports to be financed through banks, without recourse to official reserves. Remittance inflows could also recover
after they were partly switched to unofficial channels in 4Q22 to benefit from more favorable exchange rates in
the parallel market.
Difficult IMF Conditions: Shortfalls in revenue collection, energy subsidies and policies inconsistent with a market-
determined exchange rate have held up the ninth review of Pakistan's IMF programme, which was originally due in
November 2022. We understand that completion of the review hinges on additional front-loaded revenue
measures and increases to regulated electricity and fuel prices.
Challenging Political Context: The IMF's conditions are likely to prove socially and politically difficult amid a sharp
economic slowdown, high inflation, and the devastation wrought by widespread floods last year. Elections are due
by October 2023, and former prime minister Imran Khan, whose party will challenge the incumbent government in
the elections, earlier rejected an invitation by Prime Minister Shehbhaz Sharif to hold talks on national issues,
including IMF negotiations.
Funding Contingent on IMF Programme: Recent funding stress has been marked by the apparent reluctance of
traditional allies - China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates - to provide fresh assistance in the absence of
an IMF programme, which is also critical for other multilateral and bilateral funding.
The Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR also reflects the following factors:
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
Renewed Commitment by Authorities: The authorities appear close to agreement on the ninth programme review
after the conclusion of the IMF's staff visit to Pakistan on 9 February and have already taken action that should
facilitate agreement. This includes an apparent removal of a cap on the rupee exchange rate in January. The prime
minister has repeatedly expressed the intention to remain in the programme.
Funding in the Pipeline: In addition to remaining IMF disbursements of USD2.5 billion, Pakistan stands to receive
USD3.5 billion from other multilaterals in FY23 after agreement with the IMF is reached. There have been reports
of over USD5 billion in additional commitments being considered by allies, on top of rollovers of existing funding,
although details on the size and conditions are still pending. Pakistan received USD10 billion in pledges at a flood-
relief conference in January 2023, mostly in the form of loans.
Government Committed to Debt Service: The prime minister has also expressed the intention to remain current
on all debt obligations. Pakistan repaid a sukuk due in December 2022, and the next scheduled bond maturity is
not until April 2024.
Restructuring Cannot be Fully Excluded: The previous finance minister said before resigning that Pakistan would
seek debt relief from non-commercial creditors.
In addition, the prime minister had appealed for bilateral debt relief within the Paris Club framework, although no
official request has been sent and this is no longer under consideration according to the authorities. Should Paris
Club debt treatment be sought, Paris Club creditors would be likely to require comparable treatment for private
external creditors in any restructuring. We believe local debt might be included in any restructuring, despite
macro-financial stability considerations, as it accounts for 90% of the government's interest burden.
ESG - Governance: Pakistan has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5' for both political stability and rights and for the
rule of law, institutional and regulatory quality, and control of corruption. These scores reflect the high weight that
the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model (SRM). Pakistan has
a WBGI ranking at the lower 22nd percentile.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
- Public Finances: Signs that a default of some sort appears probable; for example, indications that the authorities
are considering debt restructuring, or further deterioration in external liquidity and funding conditions making
traditional payment default more likely.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
- Public Finances: Strong performance against IMF programme conditions, ensuring continued availability of
funding.
- External Finances: Rebuilding of foreign-currency reserves and easing of external financing risks.
SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Pakistan a score equivalent to a rating of 'CCC+' on the Long-Term Foreign-
Currency IDR scale. However, in accordance with its rating criteria, Fitch's sovereign rating committee has not
utilized the SRM and QO to explain the ratings in this instance. Ratings of 'CCC+' and below are instead guided by
the rating definitions.
Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs eighteen variables based on
three-year centered averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a Long-Term
Foreign-Currency IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to
the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or
not fully reflected in the SRM.
BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO
International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance and Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three
notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three years. The complete
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the
methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings,
visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Pakistan has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for political stability and rights, as WBGIs have the highest weight in
Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Pakistan
has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective governance indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit
profile.
Pakistan has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for rule of law, institutional & regulatory quality, and control of
corruption, as WBGIs have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are
a key rating driver with a high weight. As Pakistan has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective governance
indicators, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.
Pakistan has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for human rights and political freedoms, as the voice and accountability
pillar of the WBGIs is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As Pakistan has a percentile rank below 50 for the
respective governance indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.
Pakistan has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for creditor rights, as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to
the rating and is a rating driver for Pakistan, as for all sovereigns. Pakistan participated in the Debt Service
Suspension Initiative in 2020 and had earlier restructurings of public debt in 2001 and 1998.
Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score of 3. This
means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature
or to the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance
Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg

Moody’s

https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Pakistan-Government-of-credit-rating-
600014774/reports?category=Ratings_and_Assessments_Reports_rc|Issuer_Reports_rc&type=Rating_Action_rc|A
nnouncement_rc|Announcement_of_Periodic_Review_rc,Credit_Opinion_ir_rc|Issuer_Comment_rc|Issuer_in_De
pth_rc

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/sp-global-lowers-pakistans-long-term-sovereign-credit-rating
S&P Global lowers Pakistan's long-term sovereign credit ratingCredit: REUTERS/PRESS INFORMATION
DEPARTMENT
December 22, 2022 — 09:29 am EST

Written by Shreyaa Narayanan and Asif Shahzad for Reuters ->


Updates with Pakistan reserves
Dec 22, 2022 (Reuters) - Global ratings agency S&P Global on Thursday cut Pakistan's long-term sovereign credit
rating by one notch to "CCC+" from "B" to reflect a continued weakening of the country's external, fiscal, and
economic metrics. Pakistan's already low foreign exchange reserves will remain under pressure through
2023 unless oil prices slump or foreign assistance improves, the agency said.
The country's central bank said on Thursday its reserves had fallen $584 million to $6.11 billion during the week
ending Dec. 16 due to external debt repayments, barely enough to cover a month of imports.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
Pakistan also faces elevated political risks that may affect its policy trajectory over the next year, the agency said.
This year's severe floods, surging food and energy inflation as well as rising global interest rates are also expected
to depress Pakistan's economic and fiscal outcomes, with refinancing challenges over the medium term, the
report said.
The agency maintained its outlook at "stable".
With the depleting reserves and a review by the International Monetary Fund pending since September, the South
Asian nation is in dire need of external financing support.

EXIM – April 13, 2023 – Country Limitation Schedule

February 22, 2024


Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
Export Development Canada

EDC Canada – Pakistan


https://www.kfw-entwicklungsbank.de/International-financing/KfW-Development-Bank/Local-
presence/Asia/Pakistan/ - accessed May 17, 2023

World Bank information:


https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/pakistan

United States State Department https://www.state.gov/countries-areas/pakistan-2/

U.S.-Pakistan Relations
The United States established diplomatic relations with Pakistan following the country’s independence in 1947. We
have a multi-faceted relationship with Pakistan in areas ranging from counterterrorism to energy to trade and
investment. Pakistani forces have made significant sacrifices in recent years to reclaim parts of the country
previously held by militant groups. Pakistan also has taken some action against externally focused militant groups
and UN-designated terrorist organizations operating from its territory in accordance with its National Action Plan
against terrorism and Prime Minister Imran’s Khan’s public commitments. In line with the South Asia strategy
announced by the President in August 2017, the United States continues to urge Pakistan to take decisive and
irreversible action against these groups. Pending this action, the United States suspended security assistance to
Pakistan in January 2018, with certain narrow exceptions for U.S. national security interests. The United States has
been one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment in Pakistan and is Pakistan’s largest export market.
Trade relations between the United States and Pakistan continue to grow and the U.S. government supports this
relationship by funding reverse trade delegations, business conferences, technical assistance, and business
outreach.

Bilateral Economic Relations


Pakistan is the fifth largest country in the world by population and the 42nd largest economy in 2019. The United
States is Pakistan’s largest export destination country, while China is Pakistan’s largest import partner. U.S.-Pakistan
trade in 2019 stood at $6.5 billion, with Pakistan running a modest surplus of $1.3 billion. The United States has been
one of the top investors in Pakistan over the last two decades, with major U.S. investments concentrated in
consumer goods, chemicals, energy, agriculture, business process out-sourcing, transportation, and
communications. In his July 2019 meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, President Trump called for a
dramatic expansion of U.S.-Pakistan commercial ties. Since then, the U.S. government has worked to operationalize
that vision through enhanced bilateral economic coordination.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
In February 2020, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross met with senior Pakistani officials in Islamabad to discuss how
to deepen trade and investment ties; and in July 2020, U.S. International Development Finance Corporation CEO
Adam Boehler paid a similar visit to discuss potential investment support for development projects. However,
Pakistan’s significant business climate issues, including regulatory barriers, weak intellectual property protections,
and discriminatory taxation, have impeded U.S. firms from operating in the country. Pakistan has made some
progress address with its recent economic reforms, ranking 108 in the World Bank‘s Ease of Doing Business rankings
in 2019, a 28-slot improvement from 2018. The United States continue to work with Pakistan to achieve further
business climate enhancements.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024

Barrick Gold - "Gold" - Monthly Share Prices Since 2010


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i Headings in the paper may mirror the headings in your Executive Summary.

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