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Barrick Gold Corporation - Reko Diq Project, Pakistan - March 2024 Midterm Exam
Barrick Gold Corporation - Reko Diq Project, Pakistan - March 2024 Midterm Exam
Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
The Reko Diq deposit is in the Balochistan province. (Image courtesy of Barrick Gold.)
BACKGROUND: TORONTO – December 15, 2022 - Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD)(TSX:ABX) said today that
it had completed the reconstitution of the massive $7 billion Reko Diq project, having received a favorable opinion
from the Supreme Court of Pakistan and the required legislation having been passed into law.
One of the largest undeveloped copper-gold projects in the world, Reko Diq is owned 50% by Barrick, 25% by three
federal state-owned enterprises, 15% by the Province of Balochistan on a fully funded basis and 10% by the Province
of Balochistan on a free carried basis.
Barrick president and chief executive Mark Bristow said the completion of the legal processes was a key step in
progressing the development of Reko Diq into a world-class, long-life mine which would expand the company’s
strategically significant copper portfolio and benefit its Pakistani stakeholders for generations to come.
“We are currently updating the project’s 2010 feasibility and 2011 feasibility expansion studies. This should be
completed by 2024, with 2028 targeted for first production,” Bristow said. Barrick plans to deliver production from
Phase 1 in 2028 at a cost of around $4 billion, with Phase 2 to follow in five years at a cost of $3 billion.
“With its unique combination of large scale, low strip, and good grade, Reko Diq is expected to have a life of at least
40 years. We envisage a truck-and-shovel open pit operation with processing facilities producing a high-quality
copper-gold concentrate. We expect it to be constructed in two phases with a combined process capacity of eighty
million tonnes per annum.”
Reko Diq will be a major contributor to Pakistan’s economy which is expected to have a transformative impact on
the underdeveloped Balochistan province where, in addition to the economic benefits it will generate, the mine will
also create jobs, promote the growth of a regional economy, and invest in development programs. The province’s
interest in the mine will be fully funded, which means that Balochistan will reap the dividends, royalties, and other
benefits of its 25% shareholding without having to contribute financially to its construction and operation.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
“Reko Diq’s ownership structure is a further manifestation of Barrick’s commitment to partnership with its host
countries and communities and to sharing the value our operations create fairly with all our stakeholders,” Bristow
said.
“We are making sure that Balochistan and its people will see these benefits quickly. Starting early next year, Barrick
will implement a range of social development programs prioritizing the improvement of healthcare, education,
vocational training, food security and the provision of potable water. Our investment in these is expected to amount
to around $70 million over the feasibility and construction period. In addition, Reko Diq will advance royalties to the
government of Balochistan of up to $50 million until commercial production starts.”
During peak construction, the project is expected to employ 7,500 people and once in production it will create
around 4,000 long-term jobs. As elsewhere in the group, Barrick prioritizes the employment of local people and host
country nationals.
Bristow said Barrick already had the industry's best gold assets and the addition of Reko Diq would promote its
copper portfolio into the world-class league, accelerating the company towards its goal of creating the world's most
valued gold and copper mining business.1
1 Massive Reko Diq Project Gets All Clear, Barrick Starts Updating Plans -
https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2022/massive-reko-diq-project-gets-all-clear-barrick-starts-
updating-plans/default.aspxEnquiries: Investor and Media Relations - Kathy du Plessis
+44 20 7557 7738 - Email: barrick@dpapr.com
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
Study Questions:
1. Country risk. Prepare an assessment for Pakistan with a focus on mining issues. Use country reports, IMF Article
IV’s, country ratings briefs from the major credit agencies – as available, and any other sources you wish to
incorporate. Review the ratings history – Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch. What is the bond market saying
about risk and return in Pakistan – use 10-year yield to maturity data to help quantify the country risks;
furthermore, please look at how the yields have changed over the last ten years – if you can? Fundamentally,
ask if Pakistan is a good country for major mining investments. How important is the mining industry to Pakistan?
What is Pakistan’s Gini Index and the literacy rate for women; compare this data with Chile, China, India,
Mozambique, Peru, South Africa, and the United States.
Overall, what do you conclude about Pakistan’s country risk – meaning both the politics of the country and its
economic prospects.
See links:
2022 Article IV Report from the IMF – imf.org - 1PAKEA2022001 (1).pdf and
Pakistan (PAK) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners | The Observatory of Economic Complexity
(oec.world)
Pakistan: Hard work for a fragile government | Coface
2. History of mine. Briefly summarize how Barrick became involved with the Reko Diq project and the
ownership structure now. What was the role of the Chief of Army Staff in resolving the dispute concerning
Reko Diq?
3. Commodity risks. Reko Diq is, mostly, a gold, and copper mine. Prepare an assessment of price history in the
global copper and gold markets. FRED has commodity prices. What do you estimate prices of each commodity
will be in 2028? What factors influence international demand for copper and gold? The website www.gold.org
may be quite helpful.
4. Cash Costs. Is Reko Diq a low-cost producer? Given what you know about this project, or can surmise, and the
prices of gold and copper, is the mine financially viable given reasonable assumptions? If Reko Diq is primarily a
copper mine, what sort of copper price does Barrick need to make the project viable – assume that the non-
financial challenges have been dealt with? You do not need to prepare a full financial model. Does the mine
have “technology” risk; if so, describe the risks and how these should be managed?
5. Free Cash Flow. Consider Barrick’s FCF position over the last ten years, in general. Use FactSet to help you assess
Barrick’s FCF challenges and performance on that score as well as any discernable impact of the FCF on share
price. How does NOPAT, or Barrick’s equivalent, compare with their Capital Expenditures. How do commodity
prices and cash extraction costs figure into the equation, especially as these metrics pertain to Reko Diq? Are
they moving targets? How important is Reko Diq to Barrick’s portfolio of cash flows, by amount and geographical
diversification? Can Barrick’s management manage this project, meaning “are they good operators”?
For the Reko Diq Project, how do you think about an appropriate discount rate. Start with the country risk
premium, the spread between Pakistan’s 10-year bond yield and the U.S.’s 10-year bond yield. Then, as you
deem appropriate, adjust for the industry risk – mining.
6. Financing. The financing for this project is expected to be 50% Debt and 50% Equity.
• What is the difference between Corporate Finance and Project Finance? See your notes on the Chad Cameroon
pipeline – the presentation is posted on Brightspace.
• Major international banks, including Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank of Canada, Citibank N.A., HSBC, Habib Bank
– Pakistan, Standard Chartered Bank, UBS – Zurich, Barclays Bank plc – London, Deutsche Bank, BNP – Paris,
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group – Japan, Industrial and Commercial
Bank of China and China Construction Bank are expected to lead and arrange the Debt syndicate.
• Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Nomura – Japan will manage the Equity underwriting.
• Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund has made noises about investing $1 billion in this project.
• Major Export Credit Agencies and Multilateral Credit Agencies including IFC are expected to join in the financing
with a mix of debt, subordinated debt, and equity.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
• Tranches of Islamic finance and Commodity loans will be considered too. In the aftermath of Pakistan’s recent
election, there seems to be a move toward more Islamic finance – how would that work? While the project
will produce gold, copper will be the most important metal produced.
• As discussed in class, consider the importance of the following – Off-Take Agreement, Cash Sweep, Revenue
Management Plan2
7. Environment and Indigenous Peoples. Comment on any environmental challenges – especially water, and the
rights of Indigenous peoples - as appropriate. See Las Bambas, Peru presentation – posted on Brightspace.
8. Completion risk. – Consider the cases we have studied to date. Discuss how you would measure “Completion” for
this project and compare that test with the other projects – The Airbus A380, Nord Stream 2, and Alba. Discuss
where the “deep pockets” are in this case.
2
In the Chad-Cameroon Pipeline case, the Revenue Management Plan was put in place to distribute revenues, it
was a good idea on paper. But the RMP had a serious flaw – no one had imagined that the price of oil would spike
as high as it did. The government of Chad was able to cream off the extra revenues from the higher oil prices and
buy more weapons.
3
BMO is a relationship bank for Barrick.
4
The basics of lending money – 1. What is it for? 2. When are we getting it back? 3. What are they giving us –
collateral or cash flow covenants? 4. Are they smart? 5. How much do we make? Wise words from the late great
Paul Farrar, SVP, Special Loans, CIBC, Toronto.
5
A quote from Stephen Saunders Webb, Professor of History Emeritus, Maxwell School, Syracuse University
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
• Any Artificial Intelligence not properly cited will be deemed a violation of the Honor Code.
• Please ask if you have questions.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
Neighborhood Map6:
Resources:
Interview with CEO Mark Bristow - short
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7NTcbode4I
https://www.mining.com/barrick-gold-to-go-ahead-with-7bn-reko-diq-project/
Barrick Gold to go ahead with $7bn Reko Diq project in Pakistan.
Cecilia Jamasmie | December 15, 2022 | 9:58 am Intelligence News Top Companies Asia Canada Copper Gold
Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD)(TSX:ABX) is going ahead with construction of its Reko Diq copper and gold project in
Pakistan after the country’s top court cleared the path for the Canadian miner.
Receiving the court’s endorsement was a condition outlined in the settlement reached by Barrick and the
government of Pakistan in early December to resume work on Reko Diq.
The project, which hosts one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits, has been on hold since
2011 due to a dispute over the legality of its licensing process.
Barrick solved the long-running clash with Pakistan in March this year, reaching a preliminary out-of-court
deal that cleared the path for a final agreement on how to run the mine and profit-sharing arrangements.
Chief executive Mark Bristow said the completion of the legal processes was a key step in progressing Reko Diq
into a world-class, long-life mine, which will boost Barrick’s copper portfolio.
The Toronto-based gold giant plans to invest $10 billion in the massive project, located in the southwestern
province of Balochistan, bordering Afghanistan and Iran.
6
Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Pakistan-insurgents-behind-China-attacks-
threaten-Barrick-Gold-mine
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
“We are currently updating the project’s 2010 feasibility and 2011 feasibility expansion studies. This should be
completed by 2024,” Bristow said.
Two-phased plan
Reko Diq’s conceptual design calls for an open pit with a life of more than 40 years. It would be built in two phases,
starting with a plant that will be able to process about 40 million tonnes of ore per annum, which could be doubled
in five years. Barrick plans to deliver production from Phase 1 in 2028 at a cost of around $4 billion, with Phase 2
to follow in five years at a cost of $3 billion.
The gold miner owns 50% of Reko Diq, with the rest divided 25% by three federal state-owned enterprises, 15% by
the Province of Balochistan on a fully funded basis and 10% by the Province of Balochistan on a free carried basis.
“Reko Diq’s ownership structure is a further manifestation of Barrick’s commitment to partnership with its host
countries and communities and to sharing the value our operations create fairly with all our stakeholders,” Bristow
said.
During peak construction, the project is expected to employ 7,500 people and once in production it will create
4,000 long-term jobs during the expected 40-year life of the mine.
MORE
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
https://www.mining.com/barrick-targets-2028-for-first-production-from-reko-diq/MAPS
Barrick Gold has targeted 2028 as the year of first production for Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper-gold mine. Barrick
Gold photo
Having recently received the go-ahead for its Reko Diq project in Pakistan, Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX) is now targeting
2028 for first production from the giant copper-gold mine.
On Monday, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow informed respective Pakistani authorities that following the completion of
the legal processes and definitive transaction agreements last month, the company now plans to finish the Reko
Diq feasibility study update by the end of 2024 and aims for first production by 2028.
Should all go to plan, Reko Diq will be the first copper-gold mine in the country’s Balochistan province.
Bristow, accompanied by senior Barrick executives, had met with Balochistan chief minister Abdul Quddus Bizenjo
and other provincial leaders to brief them on the extensive social and economic development opportunities that
would be generated by the mine, which is projected to have a life of at least 40 years.
The meeting, according to Barrick, was attended by a wide spectrum of provincial stakeholders and leaders,
including opposition leader Malik Sikandar Khan and leaders of the Balochistan Awami Party, Jamiat Ullema Islam,
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, and Awami National Party.
After the meeting, Bristow and Khan signed a memorandum of agreement which specifies the timetable for the
disbursement of committed funds to the province. The agreement provides for an initial payment of $3 million this
month and includes advanced royalties and social development funds, ensuring that the people of Balochistan
start earning benefits from the project well before the mine goes into production.
In December 2022, Barrick announced plans to invest $10 billion as part of its intent to go ahead with the
construction of Reko Diq following approval from Pakistan’s top court. The project has been over a decade in the
making and is said to boast the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
The gold miner owns 50% of Reko Diq, with the rest divided as follows: 25% by three federal state-owned
enterprises, 15% by the Province of Balochistan on a fully funded basis, and 10% by the Province of Balochistan on
a free-carried basis.
Reko Diq is expected to have a life of at least 40 years as a truck-and-shovel open pit operation with processing
facilities capable of producing high-quality copper-gold concentrates in the amount of 80 million tonnes annually.
Finance 685 – Corporate Financial Strategy Dr. Phil
Barrick Gold Corporation – The Reko Diq Project, Pakistan:
Spring 2024 – Midterm Exam – Due by end of day, Friday, March 22, 2024
RATING ACTION COMMENTARY
Moody’s
https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Pakistan-Government-of-credit-rating-
600014774/reports?category=Ratings_and_Assessments_Reports_rc|Issuer_Reports_rc&type=Rating_Action_rc|A
nnouncement_rc|Announcement_of_Periodic_Review_rc,Credit_Opinion_ir_rc|Issuer_Comment_rc|Issuer_in_De
pth_rc
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/sp-global-lowers-pakistans-long-term-sovereign-credit-rating
S&P Global lowers Pakistan's long-term sovereign credit ratingCredit: REUTERS/PRESS INFORMATION
DEPARTMENT
December 22, 2022 — 09:29 am EST
U.S.-Pakistan Relations
The United States established diplomatic relations with Pakistan following the country’s independence in 1947. We
have a multi-faceted relationship with Pakistan in areas ranging from counterterrorism to energy to trade and
investment. Pakistani forces have made significant sacrifices in recent years to reclaim parts of the country
previously held by militant groups. Pakistan also has taken some action against externally focused militant groups
and UN-designated terrorist organizations operating from its territory in accordance with its National Action Plan
against terrorism and Prime Minister Imran’s Khan’s public commitments. In line with the South Asia strategy
announced by the President in August 2017, the United States continues to urge Pakistan to take decisive and
irreversible action against these groups. Pending this action, the United States suspended security assistance to
Pakistan in January 2018, with certain narrow exceptions for U.S. national security interests. The United States has
been one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment in Pakistan and is Pakistan’s largest export market.
Trade relations between the United States and Pakistan continue to grow and the U.S. government supports this
relationship by funding reverse trade delegations, business conferences, technical assistance, and business
outreach.
5/1/2013
10/1/2013
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1/1/2015
6/1/2015
11/1/2015
4/1/2016
9/1/2016
2/1/2017
7/1/2017
12/1/2017
5/1/2018
10/1/2018
3/1/2019
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1/1/2020
6/1/2020
11/1/2020
4/1/2021
9/1/2021
2/1/2022
7/1/2022
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5/1/2023
i Headings in the paper may mirror the headings in your Executive Summary.