CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

TO: DJTFP SENIOR TEAM

FROM: TONY FABRIZIO
RE: BIDEN’S ABORTION MIRAGE AND VULNERABILITY
DATE: APRIL 15, 2024

As you have all seen, the media has been hyperventilating and the Biden team salivating since
the Arizona Supreme Court Abortion ruling. According to their narrative, this is a game-changer
for Biden and the trajectory of this race.

Well just like Team Biden was wrong about voters buying that inflation was actually coming
under control or that Biden couldn’t do anything to stop the flood of illegals across the border,
they are wrong again about the impact of the ruling. We took a look at Arizona this week1
before and after the ruling came out and the data completely upends the Biden and media
theory. Here’s the key take-aways of what we found:

• Overall, Arizona voters are NOT preoccupied with the Abortion ruling, it is
largely Democrats.

Overall, 11% of Arizona voters say they are following the news about the Arizona ruling, coming
in behind stories about Israel/Gaza and the Border. Even when combined with more general
mentions of abortion/women’s rights, it totals 16%, tying it with news about Israel. As you can
see, more than a third of Democrats mention the ruling or abortion generally compared to only
9% for Indies.

“Over the past couple of days, what ONE story about politics or world affairs has captured your
attention enough that you are following that story? If there hasn’t been one, just say so.”

Persuad-
Overall GOP Indy Dem
ables
Gaza/Israel and Gaza/Hamas/Pales0ne/ Biden support of
16 14 12 17 22
Israel
Border/illegal immigra0on/open border 13 - 26 11 1
Arizona abor0on ruling/abor0on ban 11 7 5 6 24

1
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted a survey of 400 likely general election voters in Arizona, conducted April 7-
11, 2024. The interviews were split 40% SMS to web/35% live-operator cell/25% live-operator landline. Geography
was matched to votes cast in previous general elections. Gender, age, race/ethnicity, party registration, and
education were matched to demographic profiles of likely voters based on voter files, AP VoteCast, and exit poll
data. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of registered voters. The margin of sampling error at the 95%
confidence interval is ±4.9%. Trend data is based on a survey of 600 general election likely voters in Arizona
released by the Wall Street Journal and conducted March 17-24, 2024.
 Trump trial/criminal cases/ indictments/ judicial system
7 4 7 7 5
handling Trump case poorly
Abor0on/women's rights 5 - 2 3 10
Infla0on/cost of living 5 12 6 5 2
Biden/Following Biden campaign 4 7 2 8 -
Ukraine war 3 - 4 2 1
All poli0cal affairs or world affairs (general) 2 - 2 1 3
Crime/safety 2 2 1 3 -
Trump/Following Trump campaign 2 - 1 - 4
Bal0more bridge 2 4 1 2 1

• Abortion is far from the top issue deciding Arizona voters’ minds in the
Presidential race

Not surprisingly, Arizona voters say that immigration and border security is their top issue when
it comes to deciding their votes for President – roughly three times as many as those who say
abortion. Again, by far it is Democrats who cite abortion while Indies and persuadables rank it
much lower.

“Now, from the following list, please tell me which issue is personally MOST important to you in
deciding your vote for President?”

Persuad-
Overall GOP Ind Dem
ables
Immigra0on and border security 23 12 36 25 6
Protec0ng democracy 19 13 9 17 35
Infla0on and rising prices 12 22 12 16 5
Honesty in government 9 13 4 16 4
Abor0on 8 3 5 2 18
Jobs and the economy 7 3 11 5 6
Taxes, government spending and debt 5 14 6 6 3
Foreign policy and military defense 3 3 3 4 2
Law and order and crime 3 2 7 3 -
Educa0on 3 5 1 3 8
Social Security and Medicare 3 2 3 - 7
Health Care 2 3 2 1 4

• Post-Abortion ruling, race remains statistically unchanged with President

Trump still in command

Comparing our current data with the last public media survey in Arizona (Wall Street Journal),
President Trump maintained his lead in each of the ballot permutations and remains in
command of the race in the state.
 Full Ballot 4-Way Ballot Head-to-Head Ballot
March April 7- Net March April 7- Net March April 7- Net
WSJ 11 Shi_ WSJ 11 Shi_ WSJ 11 Shi_
Trump 39 42 +3 43 44 +1 47 48 +1
Biden 34 37 +3 37 39 +2 42 44 +2
Stein 1 2 +1 5 4 -1
Mapstead 3 1 -2 3 2 -1
RFK Jr. 13 10 -3
West 2 <1 -2
Undecided 9 8 -1 12 11 -1 11 8 -3
NET
+5 +5 - +6 +5 -1 +5 +4 -1
TRUMP

• Arizona voters clearly favor Trump’s Abortion position over Biden’s by

double-digit margin

Overall, a majority of voters favor President Trump’s abortion position by double-digits over
Biden’s. Indies also favor Trump’s position by double digits and his position even edges out
Biden about persuadables. Interestingly, nearly twice as many Democrats favor Trump’s
position as compared to the number of Republicans who favor Biden’s.

“Now I’m going to read you two candidates positions on abortion, after I read you both, please
tell me which candidate you are MOST likely to vote for based on this information?”

Persuad-
Overall GOP Ind Dem
ables
Donald Trump believes that the decision on abor0on
laws should be le_ up to the states so that voters in
each state can decide. However, Trump is opposed to 51 45 83 50 13
late-term abor0on and would end federal taxpayer
funding of abor0ons.
Joe Biden supports unrestricted access to universal
abor0on - including abor0on up through the 9th month
40 41 7 39 79
of pregnancy and he supports taxpayer funds to pay for
abor0ons for any reason.
Unsure/DK/Refused 9 14 10 11 8
NET TRUMP POSITION +11 +4 +76 +11 -66

Bottom Line: Not only has the race in Arizona not changed as President Trump continues to
lead, but Arizona voters are not as focused on the Abortion ruling or abortion as an issue
overall as Biden and the Beltway Media want everyone to believe. As importantly, despite all of
the Biden/Media spin, it is Biden’s abortion position that is a vulnerability and faces serious
headwinds when compared to President Trump’s.