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EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT

March 21, 2024

BUILD-A-BEAR WORKSHOP, INC.


(NYSE: BBW)

Based in Missouri, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. is a global brand that develops and KEY STATISTICS
markets a wide array of consumer focused toys and experiences through more than Key Stock Statistics
500 interactive brick and mortar locations, with an array of corporately-managed, Recent price (3/20/24) $29.19
third-party retail, and international franchise models. The company also markets its
Fair Value Estimate $47.00
products through e-commerce/digital channels and is expanding its brand beyond
52 week high/low $30.49-$17.85
retail by creating engaging content through social media channels.
Shares outstanding (M) 14.0
Market cap ($M) 408.7
COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS Dividend $0.80
* A Driver of Mall Traffic: Build-A-Bear Workshop is a global brand that creates Yield 2.7%
unique consumer experiences and personalized customer relationships by mar-
keting a wide array of customized plush toys and accessories. We see Build-A- Sector Overview
Bear Workshop’s prime retail thrust driving traffic to malls. Through fiscal 2023, Sector Consumer Discretionary
corporate-owned locations accounted for more than two-thirds of its locations. Sector % of S&P 500 10.6%
The company leverages data from its customer database that drives planned and
repeat visits, which we think represents a significant barrier to entry for potential
Financials ($M, as of 2/3/24)
competitors.
Cash & Mkt Securities 44.3
* Expansion of “Asset Light” Location Footprint: We view positively Build-A- Debt/Lease Liabilities 0/83.6
Bear’s further leveraging its renowned brand by expanding into more third-party Working Capital 44.0
operated retail locations, including leading global tourist destinations, as well as Current Ratio 1.5
international locations, mostly through franchise relationships. Through these third Payout ratio NM
party (wholesale) and franchise (royalty) models, we see Build-A-Bear driving Revenue (TTM) 486.1
brand expansion, using modest capital compared with its company-operated Net Income (TTM) 52.8
stores, thus achieving and increasing its sustainable free cash flow. Third-party Net Margin (TTM) 10.9%
partners accounted for around 60% of fiscal 2023’s 37 new location openings, and
we expect a comparable breakdown among from the more than 50 new locations Risk
planned for fiscal 2024. Beta 1.65

(continued on next page) Inst. ownership 83%

Valuation
P/E Forward EPS 8.1
PRICE CHART
EV/Revenue (TTM) 0.9
EV/EBITDA (TTM) 3.6
Free Cash Flow Margin (%, TTM) NA

Top Holders
Vanguard Group Inc.
BlackRock Inc.
Cannell Capital LLC

Management
President/CEO Ms. Sharon Price John
CFO Mr. Voin Todorovic
COO Mr. Christopher Hurt
Company website www.buildabear.com

COMPANY SPONSORED REPORT. SEE LAST PAGE FOR DISCLOSURES.


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* Profitable Across All Retail Segments: In our view, Build- over fiscal 2023, despite one less week in the 2024 fiscal year.
A-Bear has achieved robust operational results, with all of its It also anticipates pretax income growth in the low single digit
North America retail stores being profitable, with an average range in fiscal 2024.
contribution margin of over 25% and a less than two-year * Fair Value: Based on its strong fundamentals and return of
investment payback period. These results have driven higher capital to its shareholders, we see the current valuation, trading
returns on invested capital compared with retail peers. We also around 8-times our fiscal 2024 EPS estimate of $3.62 and less
like its profitable e-commerce business (despite some recent than one-times our fiscal 2024 revenue estimate of 498.5 million,
softness) and expect investments to position that segment as considerably below what we think is warranted, compared
positively, noting its large potential in the multibillion-dollar with a peer EPS multiple around 16-times. Applying what we
gifting category. We think these factors are underappreciated view as a reasonable multiple of 13-times to our fiscal 2024
by investors. EPS estimate of $3.62, which is a nearly 20% discount to its
* Improving Margin Profile: Despite navigating inflation across peer group, we arrive at a fair value estimate of $47 per share.
its footprint, particularly in wages and global freight cost chal-
lenges, we are encouraged by the company’s 190 basis point COMPANY/INDUSTRY BACKGROUND
gross margin improvement in fiscal 2023 (up nearly 900 basis Build-A-Bear Workshop was founded in 1997 as a mall-based
points compared with pre-pandemic levels in fiscal 2019.) We vertical retailer and has since become a globally recognized brand,
see Build-A-Bear as having strong control over its inventory delivering positive customer experiences through its sale of nearly
and distribution efficiencies, which are driving robust cash 250 million teddy bear and animal friends and the associated store
flows. experiences.
* Robust Licensing Model: Build-A-Bear Workshop enhanc- As of February 3, 2024, the company had 525 global
es its visibility and organic growth by creating proprietary locations, through a combination of corporately managed, (di-
products and content, which are complemented by strong rect-to-consumer, 359), third-party retail, (wholesale, 92) and
licensing partnerships with over 75 world-class collaborators. international franchise (royalty, 74) models. All of these entities
Its customer reach and focus has expanded to include adults operate under the Build-A-Bear Workshop brand. In addition to
and collectors, who now account for approximately 40% of stores, its products are sold on the company’s e-commerce sites,
end users. third-party marketplaces and franchisee sites and through retailers’
* Emerging Omni-Channel Capabilities: In recent years, Build- wholesale agreements.
A-Bear has expanded its digital strategy to use data and tech- In fiscal 2023, the company opened 37 new corporate and
nology to provide customers with value-added sales channels, partner-operated stores. In March 2024, Build-A-Bear announced
new products and media content distribution. Initiatives have plans to open more than 50 new locations in fiscal 2024.
improved warehouse, inventory and distribution efficiencies, In our view, the Build-A-Bear experience is unique and
and the company focuses on permanently integrating these supportive of its premium market position, in that customers can
efforts across multiple touch points in the customer chain. create their own products to feature customized sounds, scents,
accessories and names, each with a product birth certificate. Fur-
* Strong Balance Sheet: As of February 3, 2024, Build-A-Bear thermore, in-store products are stuffed in front of the customer,
Workshop had cash and cash equivalents of $44.3 million, creating a very personalized experience that we think represents
compared to $42.2 million as of January 28, 2023, despite significant barriers to entry for potential competitors. We believe
having returned $42.4 million to shareholders through dividend these features differentiate Build-A-Bear products from peers
payments and share repurchases in fiscal 2023, and more than including Vermont Teddy Bear and Funko and Ty, as well as more
$90 million over the past three years. Importantly, the company general toy manufacturers including Mattel, Hasbro, Lego, Ganz,
had no borrowings on its revolving credit facility. We view and Steiff.
positively BBW’s recent launch of a quarterly dividend program Importantly, the Build-A-Bear Workshop experience is atyp-
of $0.20 per share, with an annualized yield of 2.7% at current ical among retailers, as it tends to be a driver of mall traffic, rather
levels, beginning in April 2024. than being reliant upon it for its sales. According to company exit
* Fiscal 2024 Outlook: The company’s fiscal 2024 guidance
calls for revenue growth in the low-to-mid single digit range (continued on next page)

PEER COMPARISON
Recent 52-Week 52-Week Mkt. Cap 1-yr Price 1-yr Rev 1 YR EPS
Company Ticker Price ($) High ($) Low ($) ($MIL) Change (%) Growth (%) Growth (%) P/E Ratio Beta Yield (%)

BUILD-A-BEAR WORKSHOP INC NYSE: BBW 29.19 30.49 17.85 409 20 4 19 8.0 1.65 2.7

HASBRO INC NASDAQ: HAS 54.28 73.58 42.66 7545 9 -15 NM NM 0.71 5.2

MATTEL INC NASDAQ: MAT 19.54 22.64 16.00 6842 17 0 NM 32.6 0.96 NA

1-800-FLOWERS.COM INC NASDAQ: FLWS 10.79 12.09 5.98 668 2 -9 NM NM 1.67 NA

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EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT

surveys, it estimates that up to 80% of its store visits are planned Cruise Line, Great Wolf Lodge Resorts, Six Flags, and Kalahari
as a special trip rather than being a by-product of a typical trip to Resorts. These relationships enable Build-A-Bear to drive en-
the mall. For the third consecutive year, in fiscal 2023, all of its gagement in additional markets, particularly among tourists. We
retail stores in North America were profitable on an EBIT basis, view positively recent market research that has correlated store
with an average contribution margin over 25%, which has more performance to customer distance from their homes, and tourist
than doubled since 2012. purchases driving future traditional in-store traffic.
Over time, the company has improved its footprint to opti- Lastly, the company appears to be at an early-stage of pen-
mize its locations, thus achieving superior sales per square foot. etrating additional global markets, both under company owned
In fiscal 2023, average net retail sales per store were nearly $1.3 and franchising models. Under the franchise model, Build-A-Bear
million, more than double the $0.6 million of fiscal 2020, which can produce solid returns on capital from product royalties, with
marked the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, the company modest direct investment required. To date, it has entered fewer
is successfully diversifying its revenue base with the emergence of than 10 countries, including China, India, England, Ireland and,
new channels, including e-commerce, third-party, and franchising, most recently, Italy with two locations. We think the latter can serve
which has resulted in more than 35% of its locations being located as an entry point towards penetrating the high-growth continental
outside of traditional malls. We believe these factors will continue European market and see this effort as a potential growth driver
to provide leverage in negotiating favorable lease terms with mall over time.
operators, since company locations tend to drive traffic to other
stores in the malls in which they operate. INVESTMENT THESIS
In recent years, Build-A-Bear Workshop has also diversified In fiscal 2023, revenues increased by approximately 4%, navigating
through its use of data and technology to provide customers with several retail sector challenges, related to inclement weather and
value-added sales channels, new products and media content consumer spending trends, as well as delays in e-commerce sales
distribution. In our view, this digital transformation has enabled due to the revamping of its website. Despite near-term choppiness,
the company to broaden its consumer base beyond the traditional we see Build-A-Bear executing its growth strategy by maintaining
children’s demographic, to be more multi-generational and achieve sufficient capital to invest in growth initiatives, while expanding the
penetration among teens and adults as well, who currently repre- brand’s global footprint and returning capital to shareholders. For
sent approximately 40% of its customers. This user base has been fiscal 2024, the company expects to achieve its fourth consecutive
expanded to include collectible enthusiasts, corporate gifting and record year for revenues and pre-tax revenue.
brand building, among other groups. As mentioned earlier, Build-A-Bear is a driver of traffic to
We view Build-A-Bear’s brand as a key value driver, and its company operated locations, many of which are in mall-based
think that recognition among North America’s most influential settings. In our view, the company’s strong fundamentals are driven
retailers, as recently recognized by brand analytics platform BAV by its ability to capture first-party customer data during its inter-
underscores the customer experience it has cultivated. In our view, actions, including customer demographics, which it can leverage
this visibility and growth has been supported by Build-A-Bear’s to offer new loyalty club and marketing programs, increase store
emergence as a co-brand, with a strong licensing portfolio of more traffic and repeat transactions.
than 75 world-class collaborators and licensees, many of which We see these capabilities having supported overall store
are pop culture icons such as Harry Potter, Pokemon, Star Wars traffic growth in fiscal 2023, despite periods of softness seen
and TV show Ted Lasso. across the retail sector, albeit at a low single digit revenue per
Importantly, these relationships and co-branded products transaction decrease compared with fiscal 2022. Between fiscal
retain the essence of the Build-A-Bear brand while appealing to the 2012 and 2021, Build-A-Bear was able to leverage its brand value
licensor’s fans who tend to be in an older targeted demographic. We and pricing power with co-developed product tie-ins to produce
estimate that licensing activity impacts more than one-third of its a 50% increase in average dollar per transaction to over $53 from
total business. We also see licensing supporting a premium-pricing $35. Over the last two years, the company has seen retail traffic
model that enables Build-A-Bear Workshop to maintain and, in supported by marketing promotions that tend to result in lower
some cases, expand its product gross margin. average revenue per transaction over the short-term, but are a key
Through its third-party retail model, partner companies bear customer acquisition tool to drive loyalty club expansion, and re-
the cost of workshop build out and operation, while Build-A-Bear turn store traffic that has consistently remained ahead of national
Workshop sells them inventory on a wholesale basis. Revenue store traffic rates, and ultimately lead to increased total revenue.
from the commercial segment increased by approximately 37% These marketing programs include the company’s loyalty
in fiscal 2023, following a 60% increase in fiscal 2022. While club’s Count Your Candles program and the sale of Birthday Treat
currently accounting for a modest 5% of Build-A-Bear’s fiscal Bears, where a customer can purchase a bear for the age they
2023 revenues, we view the profitability of these locations, the are turning. We see these programs driving long-term customer
minimal capital requirements and their high margins as accretive acquisition and loyalty and, in turn, driving future purchases. In
to Build-A-Bear’s cash flow, which supports its capacity to invest addition, we see the re-opening of in-store parties, which resumed
across the business. during fiscal 2022 (following the pandemic) and that historically
We are encouraged by the strategic partnerships in this seg- accounted for around 5% of sales, as providing a longer-term
ment to date, with such leading hospitality vendors as Carnival tailwind for store activity and customer acquisition.

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Overall, we think that the company’s inventory management we see as building an evergreen concept for future content releases,
is an under-appreciated aspect of its broader execution, as its verti- including from the Merry Mission series.
cal retail model provides flexibility in its inventory management to
help drive higher margins. Build-A-Bear Workshop is able to test RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
new products in various channels, including e-commerce, before Build-A-Bear Workshop shares are listed on the New York Stock
introducing them to its physical store locations. The company is Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol “BBW”. In 2023, the stock
also diversifying its sourcing factory footprint and ships product declined by 4%, compared with a 24% increase for the S&P 500.
directly from its stores, leveraging its store fixed costs to serve as Year-to-date in 2024, the stock has risen by 27%, versus an increase
distribution centers for online orders, while utilizing technology of 10% for the S&P 500.
to determine optimized shipping routes. We note that the In March 2024, Build-A-Bear reported results for the fourth
company tends to realize swift redemptions of gift cards, with quarter and full-year of fiscal 2023, ended February 3, 2024.
many customers spending more than the value of the redeemed gift Full-year results were highlighted by 4% revenue growth to $486
card. In addition, it sees below industry-average product returns, million, representing its third consecutive all-time-high. Revenue
given the ubiquitous sizing of many of its items. We believe these growth benefited from a 53rd week in fiscal 2023. EPS amounted
trends contribute to effective inventory management. to $3.65, compared with $3.08 for fiscal 2022. Excluding tax
In addition to the favorable in-store operating metrics, we benefits from the release of a prior valuation allowance related to
believe that Build-A-Bear Workshop remains in the early-stages tax assets in the UK, adjusted EPS was $3.42.
of driving additional organic revenue growth through its emerging In March 2024, Build-A-Bear issued guidance for fiscal
digital and omnichannel approach. In recent years, the company 2024, calling for revenue growth and pretax income growth in the
has made significant investments in its IT infrastructure, including mid-single digit range, compared with the non-GAAP, normalized
its e-commerce business that experienced softness in fiscal 2023, 52-week fiscal 2023.
but has since tripled its sales from pre-pandemic levels. We expect In March 2024, Build-A-Bear announced that its board of
these investments to begin to yield positive results in fiscal 2024, directors authorized a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share, ini-
and are encouraged by early signs in this regard. We believe this tially payable in April 2024.
should play a large role in supporting the continued evolution of In March 2024, Build-A-Bear disclosed the opening of a
the brand towards appealing to an older customer base, particularly second retail location in continental Europe, in Rome, Italy. During
in the multi-billion dollar gifting industry, beyond the traditional fiscal 2023, a store was opened in Milan, Italy.
children’s experience market. In November 2023, Build-A-Bear partnered with U.S. movie
Beyond traditional e-commerce, we have a positive view chain Cinemark to cross-promote Glisten and the Merry Mission
of Build-A-Bear’s digital transformation that is integrating its in select theatres for the U.S. holiday season.
products into new mediums and digital channels to expand the In May 2023, Build-A-Bear Workshop and Kalahari Resorts
company’s marketing and customer engagement ecosystem. The & Conventions entered into a partnership to include Kalahari’s four
company leverages its social media platform to generate incremen- resort locations in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas.
tal annual media impressions. Recent programs include its After In May 2023, Build-A-Bear Workshop and Axiom Space
Dark product line, Baby Yoda (Star Wars) and a its partnership partnered to include a teddy bear named GiGi along with Axiom
with Axion Space to fly a teddy bear named GiGi into space along Mission 2 astronauts. The campaign generated more than 500
with a team of astronauts. million PR impressions following its launch.
Additionally, the company has driven viewership and interest In April 2023, Build-A-Bear Entertainment, a subsidiary of
through digital content, including film production, new digital the company, entered into a content development relationship with
games on leading social platforms such as Roblox (where its Odd Dot, a division of Macmillan Publishing, to create and pro-
Build-A-Bear Tycoon game, among other properties and tie-ins duce an offering of books inspired by Build-A-Bear brand-related
based on intellectual property. characters and stories.
All of these capabilities were highlighted in Build-A-Bear’s In April 2023, Build-A-Bear Workshop paid a special cash
first animated feature for the 2023 holiday season, which was based dividend of $1.50 per share.
on its seasonal Glisten and the Merry Mission collection. Since its In January 2023, the company announced the hiring of Dara
2014 launch, the Merry Mission product line has generated more Meath as senior vice president, chief technology officer and a mem-
than $150 million in revenue. The film was released digitally ber of the company’s Senior Leadership Committee, reflecting its
on streaming devices and in limited theatrical release, through a commitment to its digital transformation and expanded technical
partnership with movie chain Cinemark to tie-in merchandise with capabilities. Ms. Meath brings more than 20 years of experience in
movie tickets in various co-located U.S. malls. Ahead of the mov- various technologic leadership roles to Build-A-Bear Workshop.
ie’s release, Build-A-Bear cited more than 4 billion social media In December 2022, it announced the release of a new virtual
impressions, and the company introduced its first animatronic, community space, “Build-A-Bear Tycoon”, over the popular global
interactive bear based on the movie’s characters. The movie, which online platform Roblox. The offering represents the next launch
drove Merry Mission sales to increase by 65% year-over-year, into the Metaverse in partnership with Gamefam and enables users
was also supported by the launch of a gaming app, music videos, to build their own fantastical Build-A-Bear universe and experience
a tie-in with the Roblox game, and other integrated features that the brand in a new way.

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In July 2022, Build-A-Bear Workshop was recognized as FINANCIAL STRENGTH & DIVIDEND
one of Newsweek’s ‘America’s Best Retailers of 2022’ as well as Our financial strength rating for Build-A-Bear Workshop is High.
being named on Newsweek’s list of ‘America’s Fastest Growing At February 3, 2024, the company had $44.2 million in cash and
Online Shops 2022.’ equivalents, compared with $42.2 million at the end of fiscal 2022.
Working capital was $44.0 million, resulting in a current ratio of
EARNINGS & GROWTH ANALYSIS near 1.5. Importantly, the company had no borrowings outstanding
We forecast fiscal 2024 revenues of $498.5 million and fiscal on its revolving credit facility.
2025 revenues of $520 million, which would represent growth As of February 4, 2024, inventory was $63.5 million,
of 3% and 4%, respectively, compared with fiscal 2023’s $486.1 down from $70.5 million at the end of fiscal 2022. We note that
million. We expect revenue growth will be somewhat back-half prior-year inventories were increased by the company to avoid
weighted, as new locations, both company-owned and partnered, potential supply-chain disruptions amid higher freight costs.
open throughout the year. We also expect incremental improvement Given its strong balance sheet and working capital position,
from e-commerce channels, which saw lower sales in fiscal 2023, we see Build-A-Bear as well positioned to continue to manage
but note that Build-A-Bear has invested heavily to enhance this its inventory levels, particularly as distribution and inventory
channel and has already noted early momentum in this regard. levels can fluctuate as partner-driven locations stock and then
While we expect commercial revenues, which currently represent replenish their inventories over time. In addition, the company
only 6% of revenues, to increase at a higher percentage rate than has cited some rising freight costs due to global geopolitical
company-owned stores, given a robust share of Build-A-Bear’s conflicts.
new store openings across fiscal 2023 and 2024, over a smaller In fiscal 2023, capital expenditures were $18.3 million and
revenue base. We also note that the current fiscal year will be 52 depreciation and amortization amounted to $13.7 million. In our
weeks long rather than the 53 weeks of the prior fiscal year. view, Build-A-Bear Workshop is in an elevated capital expendi-
In our view, the company is well positioned to maintain its ture phase as it grows its business. We expect near-term capital
gross margins near fiscal 2023 levels above 54%. This compares expenditures to remain around $20 million annually, with a focus
favorably to the 40%-45% prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, as on growth and technology investments, over those aimed at store
Build-A-Bear has realized efficiencies in its retail footprint, and maintenance. In fiscal 2023, Build-A-Bear incurred $13.7 million
leveraged its fixed occupancy costs across an expanding revenue in depreciation and amortization expense, up from $12.5 million
and merchandise base. We forecast gross margins of 54.4% in fiscal in fiscal 2022. We expect such expenses to rise to around $15-$16
2024 and 54.5% in fiscal 2025, though we see potential for some million in fiscal 2024.
volatility from elevating freight costs amid geopolitical conflicts We view Build-A-Bear Workshop as well positioned to
globally. We expect operating expenses to remain somewhat ele- maintain robust free cash flow that enable continued investments
vated compared to fiscal 2023, as Build-A-Bear invests in its digital and capital returns to its shareholders. We think that the company
infrastructure and marketing for long-term growth, and navigates has generated superior returns on invested capital compared to its
the impact of inflation in the retail channel, particularly from higher retail peers, which is underappreciated by investors.
labor costs. In fiscal 2023, SG&A expenses were 40.9% of total Over the past three years, Build-A-Bear has returned more
revenues, compared to 39.3% in fiscal 2022. We anticipate SG&A than $90 million to its shareholders, through the issuance of special
expenses inching up to around 41% of revenues in fiscal 2024 but dividends and share repurchases. The company has paid special
foresee a slight moderation to 40.5% in fiscal 2025. one-time dividends of $1.50 and $1.25 per share in fiscal 2023 and
We also expect that the company’s long-term margin profile fiscal 2021, respectively. In March 2024, it initiated a quarterly
will be boosted by expansion of its partner-operated model, which dividend of $0.20 per share, initially to be paid in April 2024, which
sells products at wholesale, but requires minimal internal resource represents an annualized yield of 2.7% at the company’s current
allocation besides product inventory. Based on an estimated stock price.
depreciation and amortization expense of approximately $15.5 In fiscal 2023, Build-A-Bear Workshop used $20.4 million
million in fiscal 2024 and $16 million in fiscal 2025, we project to repurchase shares, and subsequent to fiscal year end, it had used
fiscal 2024 EBITDA of $82.8 million and fiscal 2025 EBITDA of $2.6 million towards share repurchases. As of March 11, 2024, it
$90.3 million, compared with $79.1 million in fiscal 2023. had approximately $23.5 million available under its $50 million
We forecast pretax income growth of 3% for fiscal 2024 and board authorized stock repurchase program.
10% in fiscal 2025, compared with 7% in fiscal 2023. We project With approximately 14 million shares outstanding, we note
earnings per share of $3.62 in fiscal 2024 and $3.98 for fiscal 2025. that the company has repurchased more than 10% of its outstanding
That would represent a 1% decline from fiscal 2023’s $3.65 (6% shares since the end of fiscal 2021.
growth over adjusted fiscal 2023 EPS of $3.42, which excludes a In fiscal 2022, net cash provided by operating activities was
one-time tax allowance that boosted fiscal 2023 results) and 10% $3.5 million ($39.8 million provided in fiscal 2021, $59.5 million
growth in fiscal 2025, driven by moderating expense growth. used in fiscal 2020). Cash provided by financing activities in fiscal
Despite some variability, we forecast a normalized tax rate 2022 was $26.4 million ($6.9 million used in fiscal 2021, $30.2
around 26%. With around 14 million shares currently outstanding, million provided in fiscal 2020). Cash used in investing activities
supported by share repurchases, we see Build-A-Bear Workshop in fiscal 2022 amounted to $60.1 million ($27.4 million in fiscal
having inherent earnings growth leverage. 2021 and $18.1 million in fiscal 2020).

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MANAGEMENT VALUATION
Sharon Price John has served as Build-A-Bear’s president and Since 2023, the shares have traded in a range between $17.85
chief executive officer (CEO) since March 2016, and had been and $30.50, and are currently trading near the high end of the
was appointed to the Board of Directors in June 2013. Previously, range, which we attribute to investor confidence in the company’s
Ms. John served as president of children footwear designer and prospects, upon its initiation of a quarterly dividend, as well as
marketer Stride Rite Children’s Group. Earlier in her career, she execution on its omni-channel growth strategy.
had held various roles of increasing responsibility at multi-national Despite its robust stock performance year-to-date, increasing
toy company Hasbro, Inc. and Mattel Inc., and founded and served by more than 30%, the shares continue to trade below a basket of
as CEO of Checkerboard Toys and as vice president of the U.S. leisure-product peer companies that includes toy makers Mattel and
toy division at VTech Industries, Inc. She also serves on the Board Hasbro, among others. This is based on various metrics, including
of Directors of Jack in the Box Inc., a publicly traded restaurant forward P/E (around 8.1-times our 2024 EPS estimate versus near
company. 16-times for the peer group) and Enterprise Value-to-Revenues
Voin Todorovic has served as Build-A-Bear Workshop’s (below 1-times versus 1.2-times) and EV/EBITDA (5.6-times
chief financial officer (CFO) since September 2014. Previously, versus 8.7-times).
Mr. Todorovic served as the head of finance and operations for the We believe the company’s pricing power as a premium brand
Lifestyle Group of global footwear and apparel company Wolverine can be impacted by broader measures of consumer sentiment and
Worldwide, Inc. His experience also includes executive leadership macro-economic factors, such as the company experienced during
roles at brands such as Stride Rite, Collective Brands, Inc. and the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, which, along with costs associ-
Payless ShoeSource. ated with operating its corporate-managed store footprint, does
Build-A-Bear’s board of directors includes six independent represent some risk during declining economic periods. That said,
directors of the seven total members, which we view favorably for over the past three years, the company has successively produced
its corporate governance. its best periods since inception.
That said, the current valuation does not, in our opinion,
RISKS appropriately reflect Build-A-Bear Workshop’s long-term organic
Risks for an investment in Build-A-Bear Workshop include its revenue growth, margin expansion, proprietary media creation,
sensitivity to discretionary spending by consumers, which can superior inventory management, strong balance sheet, and com-
be affected by economic conditions including inflation, levels of mitment to returning capital to investors. Additionally, we think
employment and consumer confidence and weather related issues the company is poised to continue expanding its footprint, with
that can reduce store traffic or result in closures; profitability that additional store openings planned, further supporting its revenue
can be impacted by supply chain issues such as freight costs and growth prospects.
inventory transportation availability; demand from and continuity While we foresee some of these challenges persisting over
in relationships with brand licensors for its co-branded products the near-term, we expect the labor market will remain tight and the
and experiences; and reliance upon maintaining an available company will continue to leverage its premium market reputation,
e-commerce platform to test various products and direct consumer which we believe warrants a valuation closer to this market peer
traffic. Lastly, we note that Build-A-Bear Workshop does not own group.
or operate its production factories and that in recent years, the Thus, we apply a multiple of 13 to our 2024 EPS estimate of
company has purchased 77% of its merchandise from five vendors, $3.62 to arrive at a fair value of $47, compared with current levels
which represents some concentration risk. above $29.

Steve Silver,
Argus Research Analyst

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EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT

INCOME STATEMENT
Growth Analysis ($MIL) FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 Q1 2024E Q2 2024E Q3 2024E Q4 2024E 2024E Q1 2025E Q2 2025E Q3 2025E Q4 2025E 2025E
Revenue 411.5 467.9 486.1 121.6 113.0 112.0 151.9 498.5 127.2 117.7 116.4 158.7 520.0
Gross Profit 218.0 245.9 264.4 271.2 283.3
SG&A 167.7 183.9 199.0 203.9 209.0
Operating lncome 50.3 61.9 65.4 67.3 74.3
EBITDA 62.6 75.0 79,1 22.1 14.8 14.2 31.7 82.8 24.4 18.9 15.2 34.8 90.3
Net Interest 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.1 1.0
Pretax Income 49.4 61.9 66.3 18.5 11.2 10.6 28.2 68.5 20.6 12.1 11.5 31 75.3
Tax Rate (%) 23 24 22 26 26
Net Income 38.3 47.0 52.8 50.7 55.7
EPS 2.37 3.08 3.65 0.98 0.59 0.56 1.49 3.62 1.09 0.64 0.61 1.64 3.98
Diluted Shares 16.1 15.2 14.5 14.0 14.0
Dividend Per Share NA NA NA 0.8 0.8

Growth Rates (%)


Revenue 61 14 4 3 4
Operating Income NM 23 6 3 10
Pre-Tax Income NM 25 7 3 10
Net Income NM 30 12 -4 10
EPS NM 23 19 -1 10

Valuation Analysis
Price ($): High 23.50 26.87 30.49 NA NA
Price ($): Low 4.65 12.47 17.85 NA NA
PE: High NA 11.3 9.9 NA NA
PE: Low NA 5.3 5.8 NA NA
PS: High 1.5 1.0 0.9 NA NA
PS: Low 0.3 0.5 0.6 NA NA
Yield: High NA NA NA NA NA
Yield: Low NA NA NA NA NA

Financial & Risk Analysis ($MIL)


Cash 32.8 42.2 44.3 NA NA
Working Capital 32.6 46.2 44.0 NA NA
Current Ratio 1.3 1.5 1.5 NA NA
LTDebt/Equity (%) NA NA NA NA NA
Total Debt/Equity (%) NA NA NA NA NA

Ratio Analysis
Gross Profit Margin 53.0% 52.5% 54.4% 54.4% 54.5%
Operating Margin 12% 13% 13% 14% 14%
Net Margin 9% 10% 11% 10% 11%
Return on Assets 11.9% 14.2% 14.8% NA NA
Return on Equity 58.7% 45.1% 42.5% NA NA
Op Inc/Int Exp NM NM NM NM NM

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EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT

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