1704356695014-MASVN RS 2024outlook EN

[Yearly report] January 04, 2024
2024 outlook
Navigating opportunities amid uncertainties
Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) JSC

Research research@miraeasset.com.vn
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
[ 2024 report ]
Part I
━
Macro and Strategy
[Summary]
CONTENTS
① Key global themes 3
Global outlook for 2024
US: Fed pivot and soft landing expectations
HL: làm phần 1 + chỉnh phần 2
Europe: Facing stagnation risk
China: Signs of further relaxation to avoid contagion risks
Key global geopolitical events to watch in 2024 Nhớ kiếm thêm nguồn nha
② Vietnam's macroeconomics 11
GDP growth and drivers in 2023
Vietnam’s government aims to maintain high GDP growth
Public investment expected to be key driver Kiếm nghị định giải ngân vốn đầu tư công 2024
Vietnam remains attractive destination for FDIs
Exports: Further recovery in 2024
Industrial production: Improving
Private consumption expected to maintain recovery momentum
Tourism continues to recover
Inflation: Well below government target
Fed pivot provides room for Vietnam’s monetary policy
Credit growth to accelerate in 2024
New amendments passed by 15th National Assembly Rảnh thì kiếm thêm luật
③ Vietnam’s stock market 26

Vietnam’s stock market and key events
Plan to develop Vietnam’s stock market
2023 marked selling pressure from foreign investors and ETFs Dung: Phần 3
Valuations: Historical average reversion

Appendixes
[Summary] Key global themes
• US: Fed pivot and soft landing expectations

1) Better than feared: With foreseeable heavy pressure from fast-rising interest rates, market expectations in early 2023 tilted toward recession, or at
least technical recession. However, US GDP growth so far appears resilient, thanks to consumption and government investment.
2) US inflation heads toward Fed target: Inflation-swap pricing also suggests that CPI inflation could drop from 3.1% in November 2023 to 2.2% over
the next 12 months, approaching the Fed’s 2% target.
3) Fed cuts rates and US Dollar strength cools off: With weakening macro-outlook, both easing US inflation and a cooling labor market have raised
hopes that the Fed may be nearing the end of its current monetary policy tightening cycle, with three quarter-point rate cuts possible in 2024.
However, we view market participants as overly optimistic, as futures markets are pricing-in six 25bp rate cuts in 2024, according to CME FedWatch.
• Eurozone and UK: High uncertainty surrounding the bloc’s growth prospects
1) Unlike the US, economic activity in the Europe weakened significantly, due to tightened financial conditions. The Europe could experience a
technical recession if it suffers two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
• China: Signs of further relaxation to avoid contagion risks
1) China is transitioning away from its reliance on real estate for economic growth, focusing on high value-added industries, like EVs and
semiconductors. This transition, combined with internal factors stemming from the overheated growth cycle of 2015–2020, has brought about risks
that extend beyond the control of real estate developers themselves, putting pressure on related industries, such as banks, investment funds,
building materials, and construction. The Chinese government has implemented a wide range of measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis, which
are expected to smooth the adjustment process and restore market confidence.
2) Deflation risk, coupled with sluggish economic growth, to pave the way for monetary policy loosening: Nevertheless, the effects of aggressive
loosening monetary policy over the depreciation of the yuan (i.e., the US$/CNY exchange rate) should be closely watched. Policy ineffectiveness and
weak consumption are two other main risks to watch in 2024.
3) As China is still an X-factor to watch going forward, some of its neighbors are benefitting from supply chain diversification, or the China+1
strategy.
4 | Vietnam macro and stock market Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research
[Summary] Vietnam's macroeconomics and stock market
• Vietnam’s government aims to maintain high GDP growth.

• Public investment is expected to be the key driver for high GDP growth rates over the medium term, given the ample fiscal space.
• Acceleration in infrastructure investment, along with supportive policies and commitment to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, will be the basis for FDI
attraction in long run. Amid structural transitions, manufacturers will be motivated to look for new markets to locate factories, or consider the China+1
strategy. We see potential FDI attraction, with the recent signing by Vietnam of comprehensive strategic partnerships with the US and Japan.
• There are signs of export and manufacturing-led industrial production recovery, despite likely global consumption headwinds.
• Private consumption is expected to maintain recovery momentum, driven by falling interest rates and improving economic growth.
• Against the backdrop of global malaise from 2020 to date, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has taken swift actions to provide a more favorable backdrop
for economic growth, as well as for foreign investors to manage both inflation and FX risks. Looking forward to the possibility for three quarter-point rate
cuts in 2024, following the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections, we view Vietnam’s monetary policy leeway as more favorable than in 2023.
• Bank credit still plays a key role in financing for the economy; thus, credit growth will accelerate in 2024. Commercial banks continuously cut deposit rates
in 2023, paving the way for lower lending rates.
• The government has issued policies and short-term initiatives to alleviate bottlenecks for bond issuers, as well as the real estate sector. Supportive policies
have resulted in more favorable macro-conditions, giving troubled companies time to recover.
• Vietnam’s government is currently focusing on the development of capital markets, with the following targets: 1) Stock market capitalization to reach 100%
of GDP in 2025, to 120% in 2030; 2) corporate bond market size to reach 20% of GDP in 2025, to 25% in 2030; 3) the number of stock accounts to reach 9mn
in 2025, to 11mn in 2030; and 4) reclassification to Secondary Emerging Market status in 2025.
• We maintain our expectation for the stock market's P/E to reverse to the historical average level of 16–17x (vs. the current 15x), a level that would make
Vietnam’s stock market valuation comparable to those of most other global stock markets. Thanks to falling lending rates and supportive policies, we
expect investment, production, and consumption to recover further; thus, EPS growth in most industries is expected to pick up in 2024, after posting
negative growth in 2023 (expected: -4% YoY).
• On downside risks, we are closely watching: 1) Uncertainty surrounding the timing and scale of future Fed rate cuts in 2024; 2) the impact of high global
interest rates on debt rolling, business activities, and consumption; 3) the widening fallout from China’s real estate crisis; and 4) geopolitical risks.
① Key global themes
Global outlook for 2024 • Global growth is likely to slow much more than the market expected (i.e., consensus for 2024 GDP growth: -30bps vs. 2023 consensus) amid a high interest rate
environment. Thus, investors should remain cautious on debt rollover challenges in 2024, as well as pressures on business activities and consumption. That said, we
believe that adverse effects could be less severe than in past economic cycles. In particular, the US is expected to see a soft landing, although the EU and China could
face stiff growth headwinds.
• Global inflation will stay on a downward trajectory, with the consensus for global inflation easing to 5.1% in 2024, versus 6.5% in 2023. In particular, inflation is set to
further ease in advanced economies, like the US and Eurozone, partly thanks to base effects. Inflation in China is expected to stay low, with deflation risk. Meanwhile,
inflation in other Asian countries could pick up. Against this backdrop, policy rate cuts are surely in store, but the pace of transition will vary among countries.
Global GDP growth consensus Global inflation consensus
(%) World US Eurozone Asia Ex-Japan (%) World US Eurozone Asia Ex-Japan
Vietnam China Japan S. Korea
9 Vietnam China Japan S. Korea 9
8
7
7
5
6
3 5
1 4
3
-1
2
-3
1
-5 0
-1
-7
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg on Dec. 29, 2023 Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg on Dec. 29, 2023
① Key global themes (cont’d.)
The US: Fed pivot and soft • With foreseeable heavy pressure from fast-rising interest rates, market expectations in early-2023 previously tilted toward recession, or at least technical recession.
Although high rates and tightened financial conditions already affect certain sectors and heavy-leveraged firms, US GDP growth so far appears resilient, thanks to
landing expectations consumption and government investment. Indeed, 3Q23 GDP growth recorded 4.9% QoQ, with consumption and government investment contributing to 2.11%p
and 0.99%p, respectively. The growth rate is expected to slow in upcoming quarters, due to the lagging effect of the Fed’s unprecedented rate hikes. Notably, the
labor market appears to have cooled off, as intended by the FOMC, with job growth slowing to 232K per month in 2023 on average (vs. 2022: 399K; 2021: 606K).
• November PCE figures showed headline and core inflation easing further to 2.64% and 3.16% YoY, respectively; both far below the market consensus of 2.8% and
3.3%, respectively. Inflation-swap pricing also suggests that CPI inflation could drop from 3.14% in November 2023 to 2.2% over the next 12 months.
• With a weakening macro-outlook, the combination of easing US inflationary pressure and a cooling labor market have raised hopes that the Fed may be nearing the
end of its current monetary policy tightening cycle, with three quarter-point rate cuts possible in 2024. However, we believe that market participants are overly
optimistic, as futures markets are pricing in as much as six 25bps rate cuts in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a greater than 80% chance that the
Fed will begin cutting rates from March 2024. Accordingly, the US Dollar’s strength against other major currencies is weakening, with the DXY Index dropping to
around 101 points, its lowest level in five months. Also, the 10-year bond yield retreated to below 4%, its lowest level in five months, underscoring the Fed’s
expectations for a sharp pivot.
• That said, inflation risk is still a major threat to the aforementioned expectations, especially amid geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, overconfidence for an early
pivot by the Fed turned to be the biggest downside risk for risky assets.
Summary of FOMC economic projections 2024 FOMC meetings
CME-implied rate Assumed

Projections 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Long run Meeting date Probability
(upper) rate move
Real GDP growth 0.7 2.6 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 Jan. 31–Feb. 1 5.50% 83.5%
September 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 March 20–21 5.25% -25bps 72.8%
Unemployment rate 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 May 1-2 5.00% -25bps 70.6%
September 3.8 4.1 4.1 4 4
June 12–13 4.75% -25bps 66.8%
PCE inflation 5.9 2.8 2.4 2.1 2 2
Jul. 31–Aug. 1 4.50% -25bps 60.2%
September 3.3 2.5 2.2 2 2
Sept. 18–19 4.25% -25bps 56.6%
PCE core inflation 5.1 3.2 2.4 2.2 2
Nov. 7–8 4.00% -25bps 40.3%
September 3.7 2.6 2.3 2
Fed funds rate 5.4 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.5 Dec. 18–19 4.00% 37.5%
September 5.6 5.1 3.9 2.9 2.5 Total -150bps
Source: Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) of FOMC December 2023 meeting. Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from CME on Dec. 31, 2023. Meetings having SEP are highlighted.
The US labor market appears to have cooled off US inflation remains on right track Futures markets are pricing in six 25bps rate cuts in 2024
Inflation swap market implied (%) Fed rate (Upper bound)
('000) Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) NFP: Private (% YoY) 8 months
US headline CPI
1,000 10 7.0 Effective rate
US core CPI
900 US PCE Index 6.5 Futures implied rate
US core PCE index 6.0 8 months
800 8 15 months
5.5
700 5.0
600 6 4.5
4.0
500
3.5
400 4 3.0 7 months
300 2.177 2.5
2 2.0
200
1.5
100 1.0
0 0 0.5
Nov 18
Nov 19
Nov 20
Nov 21
Nov 22
Nov 23
Nov 24
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Mar 22
Mar 23
Mar 24
Jul 19
Jul 20
Jul 21
Jul 22
Jul 23
Jul 24
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 0.0
21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 Dec 99 Dec 02 Dec 05 Dec 08 Dec 11 Dec 14 Dec 17 Dec 20 Dec 23
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg
Both US 10-year bond yield and DXY index retreated US yield curve: Bullish flattening Higher premium valuations for US equities
(%) US 10Y bond yield US$ Index (R) (points) (%) (x)
Interquartile range Current
5.0 115 5.6
42
113 5.4
4.5
37
111
5.2
4.0 109 32
5.0 31/10
107 27.6
3.5 27 25.3
105 4.8
23.0 21.9
3.0 4.6 22 20.3
103
18.5
2.5 101 4.4 17 15.4
30/11
99 4.2
2.0 12 13.6
97 11.7
4.0 31/12/2023
1.5 95 31/12/2022 7
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 3.8 MSCI MSCI MSCI US Japan China Taiwan S. Korea India
21 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 1M 2M 3M 4M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y DM EM FM
Note: Data updated as of Dec. 29, 2023 Note: Data updated as of Dec. 29, 2023
Europe: Facing stagnation • Like the Fed, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) are expected to soon conclude the most aggressive rate-hike cycles in their
histories, as inflation is already cooling down, although the pace of transition will vary among central banks.
risk • However, unlike the US economy, economic activities in Europe weakened significantly, due to tightened financial conditions, with industrial production
weakening. The cumulative effects of monetary tightening could be much greater in 1H24. Thus, the Eurozone and UK could experience a possible technical
recession if they see two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. In all, the uncertainty surrounding the bloc’s growth prospects is high.
Quarterly GDP growth: Possible technical recession Industrial production in Europe weakened significantly Easing inflation put rate cuts on the table
(% QoQ) (% MoM) (% YoY)
Eurozone UK Eurozone UK Eurozone UK
1.6 12
5
1.4 10
4
1.2 3
8
2
1
6
1
0.8
Pre-pandemic 0 4 3.9
0.6 0.5
-1
2.4
2
0.4 -2
Pre-pandemic
0.4 -3 0
0.2
-4
0 -2
-5
Nov 18
Nov 19
Nov 20
Nov 21
Nov 22
Nov 23
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Mar 22
Mar 23
Jul 19
Jul 20
Jul 21
Jul 22
Jul 23
Dec 22
Aug 22
Sep 22
Nov 22
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 22
Jun 22
Feb 23
Oct 22
Apr 23
Jun 23
Oct 23
Mar 22
May 22
Jan 23
Mar 23
May 23
Jul 22
Jul 23
-0.2
Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22 Sep 22 Dec 22 Mar 23 Jun 23 Sep 23
China: Signs of further • China is transitioning away from relying on real estate for economic growth, focusing on high value-added industries, like EVs and semiconductors. This transition,
combined with internal factors stemming from the overheated growth cycle of 2015–2020, has brought about risks that extend beyond the control of real estate
relaxation to avoid developers themselves, putting pressure on related industries, such as banks, investment funds, building materials, and construction. The Chinese government
contagion risks has implemented a wide range of measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis, including easing mortgage requirements for homebuyers, reducing down-
payments, providing income tax rebates, upgrading infrastructure, initiating affordable housing programs, and making special loan commitments. These
measures are expected to smooth the adjustment process and restore market confidence.
• China had set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2023, following 3% expansion in 2022. In 3Q23, China posted GDP growth of 4.9% YoY, slowing from 6.3% in
2Q23, adding the concerns over China’s slow post-Covid economic recovery. Deflation risk, coupled with sluggish economic growth, will pave the way for monetary
policy loosening. That said, the effects of aggressive loosening monetary policy over the depreciation of the yuan (i.e., US$/CNY exchange rate) should be closely
watched. Policy ineffectiveness and weak consumption are two other main risks to watch in 2024.
• As China is still an X-factor to watch going forward, some of its neighbors are benefitting from supply chain diversification, or the China+1 strategy. Indeed, China's
balance of international payments (BOP) showed that 3Q23 was the first time that FDI inflows to China have fallen to negative figures since 1998.
Concerns over China’s slow post-Covid economic recovery Deflation will pave the way for monetary policy loosening Shift of supply chains away from China
(%) GDP growth (% QoQ) GDP growth (% YoY) Inflation Core inflation China 1Y LPR FDI to China
(%) (US$bn)
20 China 5Y LPR China 1Y MLF
5.5 120
Thousands
5
15 100
4.5
4
10 80
Pre-pandemic 3.5
7.1
3 60
5
4.9 2.5
2 40
0
1.5
20
1
-5
0.5
0
0
-10
-0.5 -20 -11.8
Sep 12
Sep 13
Sep 14
Sep 15
Sep 16
Sep 17
Sep 18
Sep 19
Sep 20
Sep 21
Sep 22
Sep 23
Mar 19
Mar 12
Mar 13
Mar 14
Mar 15
Mar 16
Mar 17
Mar 18
Mar 20
Mar 21
Mar 22
Mar 23
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Sep 19
Sep 20
Sep 21
Sep 22
Sep 23
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Jun 22
Jun 23
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Mar 22
Mar 23
Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Key global geopolitical events to watch in 2024
Country Event Date
Taiwan Elections (Presidential & Legislative) January 13, 2024
US Federal government shutdown deadline, part 1 January 19, 2024
US Federal government shutdown deadline, part 2 February 2, 2024
China Two sessions (meetings of China's top legislative body and political advisory body) March 2024
Russia Election (Presidential) March 17, 2024
Ukraine Election (Presidential) March 31, 2024 (TBC)
South Korea Election (Legislative) April 10, 2024
India Election (Legislative) April–May 2024
EU Election (Legislative) June 6–9, 2024
US Election (Presidential & Legislative) November 5, 2024
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compiled
② Vietnam's macroeconomics
GDP growth and drivers • Vietnam’s GDP growth reached 5.05% YoY in 2023; of these, final consumption increased by 3.52% YoY, contributing 41% to the overall growth rate of the economy;
asset accumulation increased by 4.09%, contributing 26.6%; net exports contributed 32.3% to the overall GDP growth (export of goods and services: -2.54%; imports
in 2023 of goods and services: -4.33% YoY).
• The government set 2024 Vietnam’s GDP growth target at 6–6.5% YoY and 2024 CPI at 4–4.5% YoY, while consensus called for about 6% YoY and 3.5% YoY,
respectively.
• Based on consensus, economists were confident that Vietnam’s GDP growth is expected to outperform in 2024. We expect Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth to be
supported by a recovery in global and domestic demand, exports to rally at a modest pace, and strong investments from state capital and FDI flows.
Vietnam’s GDP growth Vietnam’s GDP growth and its drivers Spotlight on 2024 consensus for Vietnam
(% (% YoY) 2024F GDP growth 2024F inflation

GDP growth Final consumption
YoY) (% YoY)
Accumulated assets Exports 7
8.0 20
Imports 6.5
7.5 Average 6.8 6
7.0 6.5 6.5
5.5
6.5 15
6.0 Average 5.73 5
5.5 4.5
5.0 4
10
4.5 3.5
4.0 3
3.5 2.5
3.0 5
2
2.5
2.0
1.5 0
1.0
0.5
0.0
-5
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from GSO. Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from GSO Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg
② Vietnam's macroeconomics (cont’d.)
Vietnam’s economic target by 2030: Commitment to maintain high growth over medium term
Contribution of Total Factor

GDP structure GDP growth GDP per capita
Productivity to GDP growth
Target 2030: Services ~ 50% 2016–2020 average: 6.3%

2011–2015 average: 34.75% 2023: US$4,284 (+3.9% YoY)
(vs. 2023: 42.5%) 2021–2023 average: 5.2%
Target 2030: Industry and Target by 2025: US$5,000

2016–2020 average: 46% Construction ~ 40% Target of 2021–2025 average: 6.5%
(vs. 2023: 37.1%) (2023–2025 CAGR: 8.0% pa)
Target 2030: Agriculture, forestry, Target by 2030: US$7,500

Target by 2030: 50% and fisheries ~ 10% Target of 2026–2030 average: 7.5%
(vs. 2023: 12.0%) (2025–2030 CAGR: 8.4% pa)
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, compiled from GSO data and National Assembly plan for 2030 (No. 81/2023/QH15)
Public investment is • Public investment has become the key driver of economic growth, as other growth drivers see only modest rallies. Realized investment capital increased by
6.2% YoY in 2023 (versus +11.3% YoY in 2022), driven by the disbursement of the state budget (+14.6% YoY) to implement public investment projects, while FDI and
expected to be the non-state sectors weakened. The official data showed that public disbursement soared in November (+48% YoY) and December (+34% YoY); in sum, cumulative 12-
key driver month disbursement increased up to 33% YoY.
• We believe that Vietnam’s government will take further steps to disburse public investment, thanks to ample fiscal space. Public debt was estimated at about
37% of GDP by end-2023 (vs. 2022: 37.1%), much lower than the ceiling of 60% set by the National Assembly. In 2023, the accumulated state budget deficit reached
VND14.1tn (compared with the estimated deficit of VND455.5tn set at the beginning of the year). For 2024, the National Assembly passed a Resolution on the
estimated state budget with an estimated deficit of VND399.4tn (equivalent to 3.6% of GDP) and public investment capital plan with a total amount of VND677.3tn
(equal to 95.6% of the public investment capital plan for 2023).
Vietnam’s realized investment capital Public disbursement State expenditure for investment and development
Total investment capital The State 2021 2022 2023 (VNDbn) Investment and development expenditure (% YoY)
(% YoY) (YTD, VNDbn)
Growth (R)
Non-state FDI 800,000 30%
20 700,000
750,000 25%
600,000 (82% of plan)
15 20%
700,000
500,000
15%
650,000
10
400,000 10%
600,000
5%
300,000
5
550,000
0%
200,000
500,000
0 -5%
100,000
450,000 -10%
-5 0 400,000 -15%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 (Month) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024P 2025P 2026P
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from MOF

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from GSO Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from MOF
Vietnam remains an • FDI disbursement continued to improve in the last months of 2023, reaching US$23.18bn (+3.5% YoY) in 2023. In 2023, total registered FDI, capital contribution, and
share purchases by foreign investors maintained double-digit growth (US$36.6bn; +32.1% YoY). Of this, the total registered FDI capital of Processing and Manufacturing
attractive destination expanded by 39.9% YoY, while Real Estate turned into a positive territory (+4.8% YoY in 2023, compared with -31.4% YoY in 11M23).
for FDIs • Vietnam will apply the global minimum tax of 15% from January 1, 2024. To maintain competitiveness in attracting FDI, Vietnam will continue to implement special
investment incentive mechanisms for projects in the fields of innovation, R&D, and high technology.
• Opportunities to attract FDI investment from comprehensive strategic partnerships: 1) The comprehensive strategic partnership with the US could pave the way
for additional US FDI projects (accounting for about 2.5% of the FDI capital of valid projects), especially in semiconductors and renewable energy; and 2) Vietnam and
Japan (accounting for 15.8% of the total FDI capital of valid projects) upgraded their bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership at end-November.
• Long-term drivers: 1) Acceleration in infrastructure investment; 2) supportive policies and commitment to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050; 3) motivation of
manufacturers to look for new markets to locate factories or consider the China+1 strategy, amid structural transitions, persistent geopolitical risks, and China's
economic transformation; and 4) the cost competitiveness of Vietnam’s workforce compared with other Asian countries.
FDI Cumulative registered FDI of valid projects as of Dec. 20, 2023
FDI disbursement Registered FDI South Korea Processing and Manufacturing

(US$bn) (% YoY)
Disbursed FDI growth (R) Registered FDI growth (R) 1.1%
Singapore Real estate
45 40 1.2%
Japan 1.3%
Generation and distribution of electricity,
40 12.3% 2.4%
30 gas, water, air conditioning
18.3% Taiwan 5.2%
35 2.5% Accommodation and food services
2.4%
20 2.8% Hong Kong 2.8%
30 3.0%
Construction
China 8.3%
10 3.0%
25
British Virgin Islands Wholesale and retail; repair cars,
4.8% 15.9% motorbikes, and motorbikes
20 0 60.7%
Netherlands 14.6% Transportation and warehouse
15
5.9%
-10 Thailand
Professional, scientific and technological
10 7.3%
activities
15.8% Malaysia
-20 8.4%
5 Information and communication
US
0 -30 Others
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Others
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from MPI Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from MPI
Large FDI projects in 2023 Plans to move plants to Vietnam going forward
Project Country Registered FDI capital Province Registered

Project Country Province
FDI capital
LG Innotek S. Korea ~ US$1.9bn Hai Phong
Jinko Solar China ~ US$1.5bn Quang Ninh Chinese solar panel maker Trina Solar China US$420mn Thai Nguyen
Amkor Technology US ~ US$1.25bn Bac Ninh Dutch semiconductor companies and suppliers are planning
manufacturing investments in Vietnam
Hyosung S. Korea ~ US$1bn Vung Tau
Motor GP of Pavilion International Group represented by
Hao Hua China US$0.5bn Binh Phuoc Malaysia US$1.4bn Can Tho
partner Global Partnership Co., Ltd
ECOVANCE S. Korea US$0.5bn Hai Phong Ba Ria-
Hyosung Group S. Korea US$720mn
Vung Tau
Victoria Giant Tech China US$0.4bn Bac Ninh
Apple’s relocation of iPad production to Vietnam in 2024
Foxconn Taiwan US$0.35bn Nghe An
Liteon Quang Ninh Factory Taiwan US$0.69bn Quang Ninh Thai Binh LNG thermal power plant project Japan US$2bn Thai Binh
US semiconductor giant Marvell Technology is planning to
Luxshare Precision Industry Co China US$330mn Bac Giang US Ho Chi Minh
establish a world-class design center
Some key provinces attracting FDI flows set high GRDP growth rate in 2021–2030
GDP structure Average labor

Average GRDP growth Total factor productivity
Province/City Agriculture, Forestry, GRDP per capita productivity growth
rate (2021–2030) Industry-Construction Services for GDP growth
Fishery rate
Ba Ria-Vung Tau 8.1–8.6% 58–58.5% 29–29.5% 6–6.5% US$18,000–18,500 56% 7%
Hai Phong 13.5% 51.7% 43.2% 1.0% US$21,700 56–59% 8.9–10.7%
Bac Ninh 8–9% 72.7% 21.7% 1.6% US$13,480 8.3–9.5%
Thanh Hoa 10.1% 57.0% 33.3% 5.1% US$7,850 40–45% 8.1–9.6%
Long An 9% 61.8% 24.2% 7.5% US$7,000
Ha Tinh 9% 60.3% 26.6% 7.9% US$6,610 11.30%
Quang Ninh 10% 47–48% 38–39% 3–4% US$19,000–20,000 Above 50% Above 8%
Thai Nguyen 8–8.5% 60.0% 32.8% 7.2% US$8,900
Bac Giang 15–16% 66–67% 24–25% 6–7% US$9800 50% 13%
Hai Duong 9.5% 62.7% 24.1% 5.1% US$7,000 50% 8.50%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compiled
Exports: To recover • Exports and imports turned into positive territory in the four last months of 2023 (with estimated exports of US$355.5bn (-4.4% YoY) and imports of US$327.5bn (-
8.9% YoY) in 2023), with a record high annual trade surplus (US$28bn) over the last ten years. Exports and imports improved in the last months of 2023, thanks to
further in 2024 recoveries in most key markets and a surge in Computers, Electronics and Components.
• Exports are expected to recover further in 2024, in light of: 1) signs in recent months of improvement in demand in some export markets; 2) a decline in US
inventories from their peak; and 3) a significant narrowing of declines in imports of input materials.
• Long-term drivers: Vietnam's deepening participation in the global supply chain. Vietnam is a member of many free trade agreements (FTA) and has established
comprehensive strategic partnership with key markets.
• Risks to watch: Slower-than-expected economic growth and subdued consumption in Vietnam’s main trade partners.
Vietnam’s exports and imports
(US$bn) Trade balance (R) Exports (US$bn) Imports (US$bn)
380 30.0
25.0
330
20.0
15.0
280
10.0
230
5.0
0.0
180
-5.0
130 -10.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
AFTA (ASEAN) WTO VJEPA (Japan) VKFTA (S. Korea) CPTPP EVFTA RCEP
FTAs
1993 2007 2009 2015 2019 2020 2022
Comprehensive China Russia India South Korea US Japan

Strategic Partnership 2008 2012 2016 2022 9/2023 11/2023
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from GSO and Customs
Vietnam’s monthly exports and imports Cumulative imports of input materials narrowed their declines in 2023
(US$mn) (US$mn) Input materials Consumer goods
Trade balance Exports ( R) Imports ( R)
6,000 40,000
Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23
5,000
35,000 0.0
4,000
3,000 30,000 -5.0
2,000 -10.0
25,000
1,000
-15.0
0 20,000
-1,000 -20.0
15,000
-2,000 -25.0
-3,000 10,000
-30.0
Dec 19
Aug 20
Dec 20
Aug 21
Dec 21
Aug 22
Dec 22
Aug 23
Dec 23
Apr 20
Apr 21
Apr 22
Apr 23
Feb 20
Feb 21
Feb 22
Feb 23
Jun 20
Oct 20
Jun 21
Oct 21
Jun 22
Oct 22
Jun 23
Oct 23
(% YoY)
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, compiled from GSO and Customs Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, compiled from GSO
Manufacturing PMIs of main trading partners Vietnam’s export growth breakdown by key market
Vietnam Global US
China EU ASEAN (% YoY) US China EU ASEAN South Korea Japan
60 South Korea Japan Taiwan

80.0
Improving
58
56 60.0
54
52 40.0
50
20.0
Deteriorating
48
46 0.0
44
42 -20.0
40
-40.0
Dec 21
Dec 22
Dec 23
Aug 22
Aug 23
Apr 22
Jun 22
Apr 23
Jun 23
Feb 22
Feb 23
Oct 22
Oct 23
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
19 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from S&P Global Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, compiled from GSO and Customs
Industrial production: • The cumulative Index of industrial production (IIP) continued to remain in positive territory for four consecutive months to reach +1.5% YoY in 2023,
although the 2023 IIP was weaker compared with previous years. On a positive note, imports of input materials significantly narrowed their declines, which may
Improving signal a further rally in production going forward.
• Vietnam’s Manufacturing PMI in December signalled a fourth consecutive monthly decline in business conditions, but experienced a more modest rate of
deterioration compared with November (December: 48.9 points; November: 47.3 points). On a positive note, purchasing activity and employment were broadly
unchanged.
• We expect industrial production to maintain its recovery momentum, thanks to export improvements in some of Vietnam's key trading partners and narrowing
declines in imports of production materials.
• Key risks to watch: 1) Weaker-than-expected demand amid economic difficulties; 2) a second successive month of decline in new orders in December, amid waning
demand.
Monthly industrial production and import-export activities recovered recently Vietnam manufacturing PMI and cumulative manufacturing IIP growth
(% YoY)
IIP (R) Manufacturing IIP (R) Monthly export growth Monthly import growth
(% YoY) PMI YTD cumulative IIP growth (point)
60 30
25 75
50 25
20 70
40 20
30 15 15 65
20 10
10 60
Improving
10 5
5 55
0 0
0 50
-10 -5
Deteriorating
-5 45
-20 -10
-30 -15 -10 40

Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Dec 23
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Apr 20
Apr 21
Apr 22
Apr 23
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from GSO and Customs
Note: To remove seasonal effects due to the Lunar New Year holiday, we combined Jan. and Feb data. Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from GSO and S&P Global
Private consumption is • 2023 retail sales growth reached +9.6% YoY; much lower compared with the 2022 figure (+22.3% YoY), due to differences in the base level. However, total retail sales
have returned to the pre-pandemic growth trendline, thanks to support policies, such as the extension of 2%p VAT reduction to support consumption and stimulus
expected to maintain policies to promote tourism.
recovery momentum • We maintain our expectation for improving consumption demand in 2023, with drivers of consumer retail to include: 1) declining interest rates and continued
economic growth; 2) extension of the 2%p VAT reduction until mid-2024; 3) continued low unemployment rates; and 4) an ongoing recovery in tourism.
Monthly retail sales Monthly retail sales growth
Total retail sales (% YoY) (% YoY)

(VNDbn) Retail sales of goods Services Monthly retail sales Retail sales of goods Services (R)
120 300
600,000
100 250
500,000
80 200
400,000 60 150
40 100
300,000
20 50
200,000
0 0
100,000 -20 -50
-40 -100
-
Feb 20
Feb 21
Feb 22
Feb 23
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Dec 23
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Apr 20
Jun 20
Oct 20
Apr 21
Jun 21
Oct 21
Apr 22
Jun 22
Oct 22
Apr 23
Jun 23
Oct 23
Jan 15
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 18
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Jan 22
Jan 23
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from GSO Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from GSO
Tourism continues to • Tourism revenue almost returned to pre-pandemic levels, reaching VND678.3tr (+37% YoY). Of this total, 2023 domestic visitors increased by 6.8% YoY and 31%
compared with the totals in 2019, while international visitors to Vietnam still lagged compared with the pre-pandemic period (equivalent to 3.4-fold the figure in
recover 2022, but only 70% of 2019 totals).
• Tourism continues to recover, thanks to the policy of e-visa extension for international travellers to 90 days since mid-August and improving demand in tourism in
2024.
Vietnam’s tourism revenue International and domestic tourists in Vietnam
(Million China South Korea (Million

(VNDtn) arrivals) arrivals)
Tourism revenue Tourism revenue growth (R) (% YoY) Eurozone Others
800 200 Total international visitors (R) Total domestic visitors (R)
6 +31% 110
700 +1.1% 100

150
5 2023 90
600 compared
with 2019 80
100
500 4
70
-16%
60
400 50
3
50
300
0 40
2 -70%
-33%
200 30
-50 20
100 1 -30%
10
- -100
- -
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from GSO.

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Vietnam national authority of tourism
Inflation: Well below • Average headline and core inflation were 3.25% and 4.16% YoY in 2023, both well below the government’s target of 4.5%. Inflation cooled down, driven by
Transportation (-2.5% YoY), Telecommunications (-0.8% YoY), and crude oil price (-10.9% YoY), while the 2023 CPI was pressured by rises in medical service prices,
government target tuition fees, and rice prices.
• Going forward, inflation will continue to be pressured by: 1) the increase in average retail electricity price, up 4.5% since November 9, 2023; and 2) the move by the
National Wage Council to increase the region-based statutory minimum wage by 6% from July 1, 2024. Conversely, other factors should lead to an easing of inflation,
in 2024, thanks to: 1) the recent cooling of global inflation, which should help Vietnam to reduce pressure from imported inflation; and 2) the reduction of the
environmental protection tax rate on gasoline and oil by 50%, effective in 2024.
Vietnam CPI breakdown
2022 2023
Inflation (% YoY) Proportion Trend
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average
CPI 1.9 1.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.9 4.3 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.1 3.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.3
Core CPI 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0 4.2
Food and foodstuff 33.6% -0.1 -0.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.7 5.1 5.2 5.2 6.1 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.4
Housing and construction materials 18.8% 3.5 0.4 1.7 2.7 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.4 4.4 5.4 6.0 7.1 6.9 7.9 6.7 5.2 6.4 6.5 6.5 7.1 7.3 6.9 5.9 5.7 6.6
Transportation 9.7% 14.5 15.5 18.3 16.6 18.4 21.4 15.2 8.9 6.7 1.8 0.9 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -4.9 -3.9 -8.9 -12.0 -9.3 -0.3 3.2 3.9 1.6 2.6 -2.5
Household appliances 6.7% 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 2.1
Education 6.2% -3.8 -3.3 -3.2 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 -2.0 -0.6 8.4 10.6 11.0 11.8 11.6 10.4 8.4 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.0 7.2 7.1 8.2 8.4 7.4
Garment, footwear, hats 5.7% 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.2
Health care 5.4% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 3.4 5.5 1.2
Culture, entertainment and tourism 4.6% -0.1 0.3 0.5 1.8 2.8 3.4 4.3 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.3 4.7 4.7 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 2.5
Telecommunications 3.1% -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -0.8
Beverage and cigarette 2.7% 2.8 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.4 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.5 3.3
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compiled data from GSO. The red and green spots in the graphs indicate the highest and the lowest values, respectively.
Note: Core CPI is calculated by directly excluding 16 groups of food, fresh food, energy and prices governed by the government.
Fed pivot provides room • With the outlook of Fed rate cuts in 2024, the US Dollar’s strength against other major currencies has weakened since November 2023, with the DXY index dropping
from 107 to around 101 points, its lowest level in five months. With a big drop in the DXY index in 2023 (-2.1% YoY), depreciation of the Vietnamese Dong (VND) eased
for Vietnam’s monetary to comfortable levels of under 3% YoY in 2023.
policy • Against the backdrop of global economic malaise from 2020 to date, the SBV has taken swift actions to provide a more favorable backdrop for economic growth, as
well as for foreign investors to manage both inflation and FX risks. We note that Vietnam has maintained FX reserves of around three months of imports since 2018.
As of end-October 2023, Vietnam’s FX reserves were around US$87.2bn (+US$2.5bn YTD). We believe that the SBV will build up FX reserves in the months ahead,
thanks to a trade surplus (2022: US$12.14bn; 2023E: US$28bn), stable FDI disbursement (2022: US$22.4bn; 2023E: US$36.6bn), and solid remittances. Looking forward
to the possible three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024 following the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections, we view Vietnam’s monetary policy leeway as more
favorable than in 2023. We also expect the spread between US$ and VND overnight rate to narrow, alleviating selling pressure from foreign investment on the stock
market.
Easing pressure on US$/VND exchange rate Easing depreciation pressure of Asian currencies vs. US$ Vietnam maintains FX reserves of around 3 months of imports
SBV bid-ask
9% Foreign reserves
Commercial banks Unofficial rate
US$ Index (R) (US$bn) Foreign reserves in months of imports (R) (months)
JPY
25,500 115 110 5.0
7%
113
25,000 105
111 4.5
2023 percent change

5% MYR
109 100
24,500
107 CNY 4.0
3% VND 95
24,000 105 KRW
90
103 1% 3.5
23,500 INR
101 85
IDR TWD
THB
99 -1% PHP 3.0
23,000 80
97
US$ Index
-3% 75 2.5
22,500 95
3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%
Apr 21
Apr 22
Apr 23
Oct 21
Oct 22
Oct 23
Jan 21
Jul 21
Jan 22
Jul 22
Jan 23
Jul 23
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
21 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 2022 percent change
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg, SBV data Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg data Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg and CEIC
Note: Data updated as of Dec. 29, 2023 Note: Data updated as of Dec. 29, 2023
Credit growth • As of end-October 2023, credit improved in some industries, such as Trading and Commerce (+15.3% YoY), Logistics and Telecommunications (+11.2% YoY), and
Manufacturing & Industrials (+6.5% YoY versus +4.9% in 9M23), while Real estate and Construction continued to slow.
accelerated recently • Credit growth has accelerated in recent months, driven by continued decline in lending rates on lower deposit rates, acceleration in both the disbursement of
public investment and consumer spending, and signs of improvement in exports. Notably, at end-November, SBV sent a document to credit institutions announcing
credit room extension for some banks. According to SBV estimates, credit growth accelerated to 9.15% YTD as of end-November, to 9.87% YTD as of December 13,
and to 10.85% YTD as of December 20, and surged to +13.5% YoY (+4% MoM) as of end-December.
• Total deposit growth has recovered sharply since August, expanding by 8.6% YoY as of end-September (versus +7.6% YoY and +5.9% YoY as of end-August and end-
July, respectively), led by a rally of institutional deposits (+7.7% YoY, versus +5.9% YoY in August) after a period of tight liquidity. As of end-2023, banks have cut their
deposit rates by an average of 2.6%p, 3.3%p, and 3.3%p YoY, respectively, for 1-, 6-, and 12-month terms.
Credit and deposit growth Credit growth by industry as of October 2023
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries Manufacturing & Industrials

(YoY) Institutional deposit growth Household deposit growth Construction Trading & commerce
Logistics & telecommunications Others
32% Total deposit growth Loan growth (YoY)
28% 25%
24% 20%
20%
15%
16%
10%
12%
5%
8%
0%
4%
0% -5%
Apr 19
Apr 20
Apr 21
Apr 22
Apr 23
Oct 19
Oct 20
Oct 21
Oct 22
Oct 23
Jan 19
Jul 19
Jan 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
Jan 22
Jul 22
Jan 23
Jul 23
-4%
Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from SBV Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from SBV
Credit growth will • The government has set a target of 15% YoY for 2024 credit growth. In our opinion, bank credit still plays a key role in financing for the economy; thus,
credit growth will accelerate in 2024, in light of expected improvements in production and import-export activities, improving spending demand, and policies to
accelerate in 2024 support the economy. In addition, commercial banks continuously cut deposit rates in 2023, paving the way for lower lending rates.
Commercial banks continuously cut deposit rates in 2023 Continued decline in lending rates on lower deposit rates Credit growth
6M Lending rate for medium and long term (Min)
12M (YTD) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Cumulative change of 6M rate (R) Lending rate for medium and long term (Max)
18% 16%
Cumulative change of 12M rate (R) 2022 14.17%
14% 2019 13.65%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
16% 2021 13.61%
0 0.0
12% 2020 12.17%
-10
-0.5
14%
-20 10%
-1.0
-30
12%
8%
-40 -1.5
-50 -2.0 10% 6%
-60
-2.5 4%
8%
-70
-3.0 2%
-80
6%
-90 -3.5
Nov 12
Nov 13
Nov 14
Nov 15
Nov 16
Nov 17
Nov 18
Nov 19
Nov 20
Nov 21
Nov 22
Nov 23
May 15
May 13
May 14
May 16
May 17
May 18
May 19
May 20
May 21
May 22
May 23
0%
(bps MoM) (%p YTD) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (Month)
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from commercial banks Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Fiinpro Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from SBV
Changes in new amendment laws passed by 15th National Assembly expected to support real estate market development going forward
Key contents Assessment
Overseas Vietnamese that retain Vietnamese nationality subject to the same Additional demand source for Vietnam real estate industry;
rights and obligations related to land as domestic Vietnamese citizens. additional incentives to attract remittance capital flows.
Restricts real estate investors from collecting advance payments/deposits of

Real Estate Business Law (amended),
more than 5% of the total value for the sale or lease of built and to-be-built Limits risks for buyers and lease-purchase parties.
effective from January 1, 2025
properties.
Imposes stricter legal requirements on investors before they can

Investors are required to complete financial obligations regarding land before open future projects for sale and collect money from home buyers.
putting future real estate products into business. Helps ensure a healthy development environment for the real
estate market in the long term.
Expands the group of buyers eligible for social housing. Stipulates that social
Ensures access and affordability of social housing for low-income
housing buyers can only resell the home to the investor or to individuals
individuals and workers.
eligible to buy social housing. Abolishes regulations on residency conditions.
Exemption from land use fees/land rent for land allocated for social housing
Housing Law (amended),
projects, while eliminating procedures to determine land use fees. Eliminates
effective from January 1, 2025 Provides a clearer and more flexible legal framework for real estate
mandatory requirement to set aside 20% of land in commercial projects for
investors.
social housing and provide alternative options for investors to fulfil social
housing obligations.
No regulations on fixed terms for apartment ownership, but additional Resolves issues related to the renovation of older apartments in
regulations on fixed terms for apartment use. many localities.
Other amended laws will be considered in 2024 meetings: Land Law, Law on Credit institutions, and Law on Value Added Tax
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research
③ Vietnam’s stock market
Vietnam’s stock market and key events: Series of policy solutions to help the economy overcome difficulties
Evergrande Group’s filing for Chapter 15 US-Vietnam Comprehensive strategic National Assembly
VN-Index bankruptcy protection in a US court partnership The National
approves the extension Wage Council
12/2023/ND-CP: Extends the deadline for paying tax and
Country Garden and Zhongrong International 25/2023/QD-TTg: of 2%p VAT reduction in agrees to
1,250 land rent in 2023
Trust Co. Ltd. miss payments Reducing 30% of land until 1H24 increase the
rent in 2023 region-based
statutory
10/2023/ND-CP: Amendments and supplements to a 06/2023/TT-NHNN on amendments to minimum wage
33/NQ-CP: Solutions to resolve difficulties in number of articles guiding the implementation of the 39/2016/TT-NHNN prescribing lending by 6% from July
the real estate market, including credit Land Law (2013). transactions of credit institutions and 1, 2024
1,200 package for social housing, loan foreign bank branches with customers, Thai tax residents with foreign
extension/deferral of real estate businesses effective from Sept. 1, 2023 The Fed holds sourced income will be taxed
338/QD-TTg: Approval of social housing construction
interest rates in Thailand, effective from 1
08/2023/ND-CP: Legal grounds project for the period of 2021−2030 Fed raises
unchanged, but January 2024
for bond term extension interest rates
by 25bps to signaled that it's Fitch
5.25%−5.5% open to an upgrades
Federal Reserve Average retail
1,150 Chair comments
additional rate
electricity price
Vietnam to
Reducing VAT from 10% to 8% hike, if 'BB+' from
on slowing the Official opening rose by 4.5%
necessary 'BB'; Outlook
pace of rate hikes of individual
Vietnam cuts Stable
corporate bond
refinancing rate and trading system
81/2023/QH15: Vietnam discount rate by 50bps 10/2023/TT-NHNN on
1,100 targets average GDP growth suspending some contents
in 2021−2030 of 7%/year Fed holds interest rates of 39/2016/TT-NHNN (added
(2031−2050: 6.5−7.5%) Approval of Power unchanged at 5%−5.25% after at 06/2023/TT-NHNN),
Development Plan 8 10 previous consecutive hikes effective from Sept. 1, 2023
Vietnam cuts refinancing

1,050 rate by 50bps The Fed holds interest
rates unchanged
Fed hikes rates by
25bps to 5%−5.25%
Vietnam cuts Vietnam cuts China's Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, a Draft Circular amending and
02/2023/TT-NHNN: Stipulates
discount rate refinancing rate leading wealth manager, announces supplementing several articles
1,000 restructuring of repayment
of 16/2021/TT-NHNN dated
by 100bps by 50bps terms and keeping debt group the possibility of insolvency
November 10, 2021 regulating
unchanged
The Japan-Vietnam Comprehensive the purchase and sale of
strategic partnership corporate bonds
Fed slows the pace of rate Fed slows the pace of rate Fed hikes rates by 03/2023/TT-NHNN: Allows
increases to 50bps increases to 25bps 25bps to 4.75%−5% credit institutions to redeem The Government approves the
corporate bonds 107/2023/QH15: Addresses the application of top-up
950 stock market development
tax under the global anti-base erosion rules;
strategy until 2030
8975/UBCK-TT: The State Securities Commission
1435/QĐ-TTg: Establishment of the Prime Minister's requires securities companies not to carry out
Working Group in order to remove obstacles for the activities that make customers/investors
market and implement real estate projects understand that the securities company has the
function of accepting deposits.
900
Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, compiled from Nov. 15, 2022 to Dec. 29, 2023
③ Vietnam’s stock market (cont’d.)
Plan to develop • Vietnam’s stock market has made considerable progress, growing from only 20% of GDP as of 2011 to around 91% as of March, 2022. However, after the strong
correction, the capitalization level fell to around 55% as of end-2022, relatively low compared with most Asian peers, as well as the global average of 100%.
Vietnam’s stock market
• This capitalization level shows that Vietnam companies mainly depend on bank credit, rather than equity and bond mobilization. Thus, Vietnam’s government is
currently focusing on the development of capital markets, with the following targets:
• Stock market capitalization to reach 100% of GDP in 2025, to 120% in 2030
• Corporate bond market size to reach 20% of GDP in 2025, to 25% in 2030
• Number of stock accounts to reach 9mn in 2025, to 11mn in 2030
• Reclassification to Secondary Emerging market status in 2025
Stock market capitalization in percent of GDP as of 2022 Vietnam mainly depends on bank credit Number of stock accounts is currently around 7.3mn
(% of GDP) (% of GDP) Deletion (R)

2022 value 1Y change (%p, R)
Newly-opened in month (R)
Bank credit Stock market cap LCY corporate bonds 8,000,000 600,000
Total stock accounts
140 0 140 135.8
Total accounts of local individuals
116 -5 122.1 7,000,000

120 120 400,000
109
106
101 100 -10
98
100 100 6,000,000
89 90.6 200,000
-15
80 -20 5,000,000
80
59 57 0
60 55 -25
51 60 60.2 4,000,000
-30
40 54.9 -200,000
40 3,000,000
-35
20
-40 20 17.1
10.4 -400,000
2,000,000
0 -45
0
1,000,000 -600,000
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Sep 22
Sep 23
Mar 22
Mar 23
Jun 22
Jun 23
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep
20 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 23 23 23
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg, ADB, Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from VSD
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg
SBV Data as of Sep. 30, 2023. Data as of Dec. 29, 2023.
Data as of Dec. 31, 2022.
③ Vietnam’s stock market
2023 marked selling • Foreign investors net bought a total value of up to VND32.6tn from November 2022 to January 2023, when the P/E of the VN-Index was at a 10-year low. Foreign
investors were taking their profits amid the rising spread between US and Vietnam yields, and US dollar appreciation against the VND. In sum, foreign investors sold
pressure from foreign
VND24.3tn in 2023 after buying VND29.6tn in 2022. Headwinds from Fed rate hikes and a strong DXY have diminished recently, as well as for our 2024 outlook. We
investors and ETFs expect the gap between Vietnam and US yields to narrow after the Fed’s rate cut; thus, FII will return to other markets outside the US. We also note that Vietnam’s
efforts to be reclassified to EM status is a plus.
• As for ETFs, Vietnam saw net injections throughout 2017–2022. Notably, in 2022, extremely low valuations attracted ETFs, especially the Fubon FTSE (US$519mn) and
DCVFMVN Diamond (US$299mn). By contrast, 2023 marked the first year of ETF outflows, led by DCVFMVN Diamond (US$136mn) and SSIAM VNFinlead (US$86mn).
• Local individuals turned to be net buyers (2023: +VND26.3tn; 2022: -VND16.5tn) as the deposit rate has fallen significantly. We also believe that local individuals
(accounting for above 80% transaction value on average) will remain the main players. We note that local individuals opened an average of around 107k new
accounts every month in 2023 (vs. 2022: 215K; 2021: 128K), strongly favoring the implementation of the KRX system in the near future.
Sluggish market liquidity, selling pressure from foreigners Cumulative inflows/outflows by investor type from 2021 Cumulative net inflows/outflows by ETF from 2021
(VNDbn) Foreign investors (VNDbn) Local individuals Local institutions Foreign investors (US$mn) Total ETF flows VanEck Vietnam
Domestic institutions (VNDtn)
Domestic individuals Fubon FTSE Vietnam DCVFMVN30
120 1,600
Daily average traded value (R)
20,000 31,000 DCVFMVN Diamond SSIAM VNFIN LEAD
100 1,400
15,000 80 1,200
26,000
10,000 60 1,000
40 800
5,000
21,000
20 600
0
0 400
16,000
-5,000
-20 200
-10,000
11,000 -40 0
-15,000
-60 -200
-20,000 6,000 -80 -400

Jan 21 Jun 21 Nov 21 Apr 22 Sep 22 Feb 23 Jul 23 Dec 23 Jan 21 Jun 21 Nov 21 Apr 22 Sep 22 Feb 23 Jul 23 Dec 23 Jan 21 Jun 21 Nov 21 Apr 22 Sep 22 Feb 23 Jul 23 Dec 23
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Fiinpro Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Fiinpro
Data as of Dec. 29, 2023.
Data as of Dec. 29, 2023. Data as of Dec. 29, 2023.
Valuations: Historical • The Vietnamese stock market has recovered since November 2022, sending the VN-Index's P/E valuation from 11x to 17.1x in early-September 2023. After the P/E
struggled around the 17x threshold (i.e., a VN-Index of around 1,250 points), the market has suffered a heavy selloff since September and October 2023 (an 18.3%
average reversion
correction from the 2023 peak). With lower-than-expected inflation in the US, global market sentiment whipsawed to euphoria, with expectations of a sharp Fed
pivot in 2024. As a result, both the DXY index and the US 10-year bond yields retreated in November and December 2023. Against this backdrop, the Vietnam’s stock
market also rebounded in November and December, with the VN-Index closed 2023 at around 1,130 points.
• We maintain our expectation for the market's P/E to reverse to the historical average level of 16-17x (vs. current: 15x), a level that would make Vietnam’s stock
market valuation comparable to those of most other global stock markets. Thanks to falling lending rates and supportive policies, we expect investment, production,
and consumption to recover further; thus, EPS growth in most industries is expected to pick up in 2024, after posting negative growth in 2023 (expected: -4% YoY).
That said, the focal point is EPS from continuous operations of listed firms, which have lagged significantly since COVID. This is a reflection of how firms have
become more vulnerable to global headwinds and structural changes than in the pre-COVID period, which has undermined the market sentiment. In terms of
downside risks, we are closely watching: 1) uncertainty surrounding the timing and scale of future Fed rate cuts in 2024; 2) the impact of high global interest rates
on debt rolling, business activities, and consumption; 3) the widening fallout from China’s real estate crisis; and 4) geopolitical risks.
We maintain our expectation for the market's P/E to reverse to the historical average level of 16-17x
(points)
(EPS)
100 EPS EPS from continuous operations VN-Index (R) 1600
Levels of economic improvement Same as 2023 Strong Very strong
90 EPS growth in 2024 0% 13% 19.6%

1400
VN-Index
1,250 1,400 1,500
at its long-term average P/E
80
1200
70
1000
60
800
50
600
40
30 400
Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg data as of Dec. 29, 2023
Global stock markets were led by the US, on hopes for Fed rate cuts, a big drop in the DXY index, and US bond yields
Market Market performance EPS growth (% YoY) P/E EY ROE (%)

Country Index Last trade
cap 1M 3M 6M 2023 2Y Trend 2019 2020 2021 2022 TTM (x) (%) 2019 2020 2021 2022 TTM Trend
Vietnam VNINDEX 188 1,130 3.3% 10% 1% 12% -25% 6% -4% 45% 12% -15% 15.0 6.7 14.7 12.8 15.7 15.3 11.8
MSCI DM MXWO 66,693 3,169 4.8% 14% 7% 22% -2% -6% -34% 90% 6% 1% 20.3 4.9 11.6 7.6 13.8 15.1 14.3
MSCI EM MXEF 20,402 1,024 3.7% 12% 3% 7% -17% -9% -26% 63% -13% -12% 15.2 6.6 11.0 8.4 13.0 12.9 10.8
MSCI FM MXFM 386 507 3.0% 10% 4% 7% -24% 8% -27% 43% 8% -9% 11.6 8.6 14.3 10.4 15.5 17.7 14.1
US SPX 41,738 4,770 4.4% 14% 7% 24% 0% 2% -25% 77% 6% 0% 23.0 4.3 15.2 11.2 18.5 19.4 17.9
Japan NKY 4,291 33,464 -0.2% 6% 1% 28% 16% -12% -40% 139% -20% -15% 27.6 3.6 9.7 5.8 11.9 8.4 6.7
China SHCOMP 6,333 2,975 -1.5% -1% -7% -4% -18% -1% -7% 22% -3% -7% 13.6 7.4 10.0 9.0 10.8 9.9 8.9
Taiwan TWSE 1,851 17,931 3.0% 12% 6% 27% -2% -20% 7% 86% 12% -37% 21.9 4.6 9.2 9.7 15.9 17.4 10.1
S. Korea KOSPI 1,586 2,655 5.6% 16% 4% 19% -11% -33% -32% 137% -13% -32% 18.5 5.4 5.9 4.0 9.0 7.8 5.0
India SENSEX 1,704 72,240 7.8% 13% 12% 19% 24% -5% 11% 22% 30% 11% 25.3 4.0 9.2 9.8 10.9 12.3 11.5
Indonesia JCI 760 7,273 2.8% 8% 9% 6% 11% -7% -38% 32% 84% -13% 17.4 5.7 10.5 6.6 8.3 13.2 10.7
Thailand SET 506 1,416 2.6% 2% -6% -15% -15% -22% -37% 45% 25% -15% 19.4 5.1 9.2 5.9 8.0 9.1 7.8
Singapore STI 379 3,240 5.0% 5% 1% 0% 4% -10% -45% 9% 91% 7% 11.5 8.7 8.9 5.0 5.3 9.6 10.1
Malaysia FBMKLCI 221 1,455 0.1% 1% 6% -3% -7% -1% -25% 61% -11% 18% 15.1 6.6 8.6 6.6 10.4 8.9 9.8
Philippines PCOMP 161 6,450 3.3% 8% 0% -2% -9% 19% -47% 30% 40% 9% 12.6 7.9 8.6 6.6 10.4 8.9 11.6
Median 3% 10% 4% 10% -5% -6% -26% 53% 7% -10% 18.0 5.6 9.8 8.0 11.4 12.6 10.4
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg data (as of Dec. 29, 2023). Red and green spots in graphs indicate the lowest and the highest value, respectively.
Vietnam’s stock market also recovered in 2023, led by Financial services, Software & Services, Capital Goods, Materials, and Energy
Market cap Price performance NPATMI growth (YoY) NPATMI growth (YoY)
Market cap
GICS industry group # of firms Weight
(VNDbn) trend since 2022 1M 3M 6M 2023 2Y 2019 2020 2021 2022 TTM 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
VN-Index 395 4,554,604 100% 3% 10% 1% 12% -25% 15% 0% 38% 3% -8.6% -31% -18% -2.9% -9.3%
Banks 17 1,719,877 37.8% 3% 4% 3% 20% -4% 31% 16% 32% 36% -0.5% 21% -2.6% 1.2% -0.3%
Real Estate 50 702,730 15.4% 4% 13% -8% -3% -48% 39% 0% 9% -2% 1% 7% 34% 58% -40%
F&B 33 424,159 9.3% 3% 9% -6% -14% -31% -1% -12% 29% -22% -28% -85% -53% -18% -19%
Materials 68 394,212 8.7% 4% 20% 9% 40% -28% -12% 56% 117% -48% -58% -87% -82% -68% 261%
Utilities 27 294,598 6.5% 0% 2% -4% -3% 0% 14% -20% 12% 46% -19% 62% -6% -27% -49%
Capital Goods 73 216,384 4.8% 5% 24% 11% 44% -35% -3% 3% 20% -43% -38% -140% -55% -19% 2%
Transportation 28 170,764 3.7% 5% 13% 6% 7% -16% -19% -173% -9% 26% 56% -2339% 976% 313% 7%
Financial Services 17 176,611 3.9% 5% 33% 31% 96% -9% -23% 38% 148% -53% 19% -89% -55% 132% 162%
Software & Services 3 132,390 2.9% 5% 17% 28% 46% 44% 19% 13% 24% 22% 14% 4% 20% 19% 19%
Retailing 10 93,152 2.0% 9% 15% 6% 9% -25% 20% 0% 41% -8% -79% -58% -93% -106% -87%
Energy 11 73,735 1.6% 0% 12% -1% 22% -23% 5% -58% 82% -42% 117% 48% 160% 2546% 118%
Consumer Durables & Apparel 17 49,777 1.1% 6% 17% 16% 9% 1% 1% 37% 8% 28% -35% -33% -32% -53% -48%
Insurance 5 40,749 0.9% 1% 2% -8% -10% -27% 14% 28% 27% -20% 16% -29% 7% 41% 23%
Pharmaceuticals 10 31,755 0.7% 2% 2% -9% 15% -5% 4% 8% 8% 24% 3% 19% 24% 10% -21%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg data (as of Dec. 29 , 2023). Red and green spots in graphs indicate the lowest and the highest value, respectively.
Note: Net profit after tax and minority interests (NPATMI) is compiled from the financial statements of HOSE-listed companies.
Relative valuation based on trailing 12-month P/E and ROE VN-Index traded under the long-term P/E median VN-Index’s P/E is around historical lows, dragged down by VN30
Japan (x) (x)

P/E Q1 Median Q3
28 27 Interquartile range Current
India
26
25 27
US
24
Taiwan 23
22
Thailand MSCI DM 21 22
T12M P/E (X)
20 S. Korea
19
18 18
Indonesia 17
17
16 16
Malaysia Vietnam
15 15.0
14 MSCI EM
China 14 12
Philippines 13
12 Singapore MSCI FM
10 11
4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 7
T12M ROE (%) 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 MSCI EM MSCI FM VNINDEX VN30 VN70
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg data Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg data Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg data
2023 marked selling pressure from foreign investors and ETFs Trading value of foreign investors has fallen over past 3 years Sharp rise in newly-opened accounts by local individuals
Net foreign investment inflows (HOSE) Attracted by Vietnam’s

(US$mn) historical low % of domestic individuals % of domestic institutions % of foreign investors # of local individuals # of local institutions # of foreign investors
Net ETF flow valuations in late 2022 3,201
2,500 13% 8% 8% 9% 4,439
16% 15% 18% 16% 2,856 2,673
2,000 7% 7% 7% 1,564
7% 9% 8% 3,208
1,500 8% 14%
3,921
1,000 5,733
500
0
-500 -29 2,581,909
86% 85% 84% 1,532,637
-1,000 FII has been attracted to the US market 77% 76% 74% 79%
since 2020 due to: 1) the strong -807 70% 392,527 391,109
-1,500 appreciation of the US$; 2) large-scale 140,236
-2,000 US stimulus packages; and 3) strong 204,924
254,214 187,825
-2,500 rallies in the US stock market
-3,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg data Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Fiinpro data Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from VSD
[ 2024 report ]
Part II
━
Stock recommendations
CONTENTS
Sector Stock Company 12M Target price (VND) Upside
Banks VCB Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam 95,200 14%
Banks VPB Vietnam Prosperity JSCB 23,800 26%
Banks TCB Vietnam Technological And Commercial JSB 35,800 12%
Banks MBB Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank 22,500 19%
Gas Utilities GAS PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation 98,300 30%
Water Utilities BWE Binh Duong Water-Environment Corporation JSC 50,600 24%
Commercial Real Estate VRE Vincom Retail JSC 32,000 39%
Residential Real Estate VHM Vinhomes JSC 63,000 47%
Conglomerate VIC Vingroup JSC 55,500 26%
Construction VCG Vietnam Construction and Import-Export JSC 28,400 16%
Construction DPG Dat Phuong Group JSC 44,700 15%
Steel HPG Hoa Phat Group JSC 31,500 15%
Steel NKG Nam Kim Steel JSC 29,300 23%
F&B VNM Vietnam Dairy Products JSC 77,000 13%
Pharmaceuticals DHG DHG Pharmaceutical JSC 130,500 19%
Pharmaceuticals IMP Imexpharm Corporation 72,300 27%
Textile STK Century Synthetic Fiber Corporation 32,500 26%
Aviation AST Taseco Air Services JSC 65,200 29%
IT FPT FPT Corporation 111,600 16%
Seaport VSC Vietnam Container Shipping JSC 35,400 23%
Source: Mirae Asset Vietnam Research (closing prices on January 2, 2024)

[Summary] Stock recommendations
Banks: We divided our investment thesis into two main categories, based on risk and return perspectives. On a low-risk basis, our preference lies with banks
that boast resilient asset quality and proven track records, such as state-owned commercial banks, ACB, TCB, and MBB. Among these, TCB and MBB are
poised for a robust increase in their stock prices, as we believe they have been overly discounted, due to their relatively high exposures to corporate bonds
and high-end real estate. Concerns over these factors have been eased to some extent. In terms of return, only few banks are poised for a strong turnaround
in 2024, including HDB and VPB.
Oil & Gas: Record-breaking US production will offset ongoing OPEC+ production cuts amid geopolitical crises. As a results, we believe that the oil price will
continuously anchor around US$80/bbl in 2024 (-2.8% YoY). Vietnam’s natural gas is depleting with an average reduction of 0.5mn bcmpa (accounting for
6.6% of FY23F output). The LNG import coupled with two key development upstream projects (Block B O Mon and Su Tu Trang 2B) will be the main additional
source to compensate for the problem. Despite successfully importing LNG since August 2023, the lack of legal framework is still a bottleneck for the
consumer market. According to GAS, the company proposed a price mechanism for LNG to the Ministry of Industry and Trade in December 2023 and expected
it to be presented to the Prime Minister in 1H24.
Commercial real estate: Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, with limited land bank, continue to be the fertile commercial leasing markets. In 2024-2025, the market
is expected to launch about 218 thousand m2 of floor space in Hanoi and 96 thousand m2 of floor space in Ho Chi Minh City. By 1H23, the commercial floor
area per capita in Hanoi (0.14 m2) and Ho Chi Minh City (0.12 m2) remains relatively low compared to other cities in the region, such as Kuala Lumpur (0.35
m2), Manila (0.52 m2), Bangkok (0.92 m2). Large shopping mall model also spreads to other provinces. In the South and Center, Central Retail expanded its
supermarket system in Dong Nai and Quang Nam; Aeon experimented a new mall model in Binh Duong, and Thiso opened its third Emart in Go Vap district,
HCMC.
Residential real estate: In 2023, real estate companies have proactively bought back bonds before maturity. This strategy has helped many developers
reduce financial pressure in the future, but at the same time, the downturn in market sentiment has presented challenges for many developers to sell their
units. Circular No. 02/2023/TT-NHNN on restructuring debt repayment term and retention of debt category, is under consideration for an extension by the
State Bank of Vietnam to support both banks and developers in accessing capital.
Construction: The construction sector is expected to expand alongside the growing economy. We expect growth of 8–10% for the sector in 2024. In light of all
the projects currently underway, we maintain our view that government spending in infrastructure will have a significant impact on economic growth and fuel
that growth over the next 3–5 years. Because of the long rally since the beginning of 2023, P/E ratios have remained on top of the band for most of
companies. P/B ratios, on the other hand, are more reasonable, with seven companies staying close to their mean.
Steel: For the prospects of Vietnam's steel industry in the period of 2024 - 2025, we make a Positive rating based on: 1) Continued benefits in markets where
Russia and Ukraine have reduced output, especially in Europe; (2) Reduced competitive pressure as major global steel companies halt expansions in basic
steel lines like rebar or box steel, (3) Sustained growth in public investment, and (4) Gradual warming up of the domestic real estate market. We forecast that
the total sales volume of the steel industry in 2023F / 2024F / 2025F to be 26mn tons (-4.4% YoY) / 27.95mn tons (+7.1% YoY) / 29.9mn tons (+7% YoY),
respectively. Of which, the export market is estimated to reach 7.91mn tons (+26% YoY) in 2023, driven by significant growth in HRC sales, and we forecast that
export steel volume will maintain a growth of 12% in 2024.
[Summary] Stock recommendations (cont’d.)
Pharmaceuticals: From the beginning of 2023, new legal documents, including Resolution No. 80/2023/QH15, Decree No. 07/2023/ND-CP, Resolution No.
30/NQ-CP, and Circular No. 06/2023/TT-BYT, have been released. Decision No. 1165/QD-TTg issued in October 2023 sets the goal of achieving self-sufficiency
in domestic generics drugs. These legal improvements are expected to foster growth within the pharmaceutical industry. Major changes in disease patterns
and the rapid expansion of the middle class are expected to drive the pharmaceutical growth at a CAGR of 6% in the period of 2023 - 2028. In particular, the
ETC channel is expected to grow stronger than OTC channel thanks to health insurance coverage reaching 93% of the population.
Textile: Despite facing challenges amid international uncertainties, the Vietnam Textile industry continued its recovery trend, especially in fiber segment.
According to WB, the 2023 real GDP forecast of Vietnam’s key markets continued to grow: The US (+1.1%); EU (+0.4%); Japan (+0.8%); and China (+5.6%).
Continued growth in these economies should lead to recovery in income and demand in these markets. At end-3Q23, the inventory-to-sale ratios of key
brands like Nike, Inditex, GAP, H&M, and Puma remained at low levels, while sales showed signs of increasing amid the upcoming holidays. Positive signals in
sales should lead to increases in 2024 orders.
Aviation: New visa policy creates conditions for international tourism to return to Vietnam. To help tourism rebound and boost socio-economic development,
the Vietnamese National Assembly officially adopted Law No.23/2023/QH15 amending some Articles of Law on Entry, Exit, Transit and Residence of Foreigners
in Vietnam, effected from 15 August 2023. The amendments significantly expand the e-visa availability and length of stay, allow for multiple entries, and
extend the period for visa-exemptions. In addition, the aviation market has benefited from a sharp decrease in the price of aviation fuels, plummeting to
US$105/bbl (-24% YoY). We forecast that the number of international passengers flying through Vietnam airports in the period of 2023F / 2024F / 2025F will
reach 34.2mn (+185% YoY) / 42.1mn (+23% YoY) / 50.9mn (+21% YoY), respectively.
IT: The industry is expected to maintain strong growth thanks to increasing local demand for digitalization spanning both private and public sector, robust
software and IT services exports, and emerging opportunities in chipmaking. Vietnam’s digital economy is expected to record a fastest growth in Southeast
Asia with a 31% growth in Gross Merchandise Volume during the 2022-2025 period and 19% during 2025-2030, of which cloud computing and ICT (Information
and communications technology) services will play an integral role. Decision No. 749/QD-TTg brings forward two ambitious targets: (1) advance Vietnam to
the world’s top 50 countries in terms of the UN E-Government Development Index (EGDI), and (2) the digital economy accounting for 30% of the country's
GDP by 2030.
Seaport: THE Alliance announced plans to suspend two key East-West routes to stem the decline. Amid weak demand, we expect further actions from major
players to reduce supply until mid-2024 that should result in a recovery of shipping prices. This will support companies whose revenue mainly comes from
shipping. Based on Vietnam-US comprehensive strategic partnership, we believe Vietnam’s seaport sector and logistics industry should be one of the biggest
beneficiaries of the improving Vietnam-US relationship, as the US is the largest customer of Vietnam goods.
[Summary] Stock recommendations (cont’d.)
Sector recommendation (by market cap)
0.1%
1.0%
Banks Construction F&B
6.5%
0.4% 8.8%
Gas Utilities Seaport Textile
44.2%
20.8%
Real Estate Water Utilities Steel
0.1% 9.5%
0.2% 7.6% Pharmaceutical Aviation IT
0.8%
Beta
2.10
1.80
1.50
1.20
0.90
0.60
0.30
-
NKG HPG VCG DPG VHM VIC VRE VSC TCB VPB MBB VCB FPT STK GAS VNM DHG IMP BWE AST
Steel Construction Real Estate Seaport Banks IT Consumer & Utilities
Source: Vietstock, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Banks - Overcoming adversity
• Pursuit of credit expansion in the last days of the year: As of December 20, 2023, the YTD credit growth stood at 10.85%, with a preliminary year-end estimation reaching as high as
Waiting for 13.5%. Put differently, the credit expansion observed in 4Q23 is nearly equivalent to that of the 9M23 combined. Overall, the credit growth in the banking sector has nearly reached the
lower bound target of the SBV of 14-16% YoY. Although the late surge in disbursement may not immediately manifest in bankers' 2023 income statements, there is optimism that it will
substantial recovery contribute to a profit rebound in 2024. Furthermore, the heightened credit growth is expected to have a positive impact on reducing NPL.
in both the economy • In 3Q23, business banking continued to be a significant driver of credit growth, while credit demand from the retail segment remained low: In the 4Q23, we expect no significant
change in the incremental credit structure observed in the 9M23, while expectations for the credit segment in 2024 should reflect more balanced growth.
and credit sector
• Lending rates continued their downward trend in 3Q23, providing some relief: Lending rates have declined by roughly 200–220bps, following a series of central bank interest rate cuts
in the 9M23, totaling 150bps. However, we note that lending rate benchmarks remain higher than pre-COVID-19 levels.
• Sustaining high credit growth targets in 2024: Initially, the SBV has communicated a credit growth target of 15% for 2024, surpassing the historical norm of 14% YoY due to lower-than-
expected credit expansion in 2023 (13.5% vs. 14-16%). Based on assumption of much resilient macroeconomic theme both domestically and internationally in 2024, we expect that a credit
growth target in the range of 14%-15% will be more attainable, aligning with the central bank's medium-term growth objectives.
YTD credit growth (2018–2023) Retail proportion of banks Corporate bond issuance
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2021 2022 3Q23 RE Banks Other
90.0%
90.0%
14.2%
87.8%
13.9%
13.6%
13.5%
13.5%
12.3%
10.9%
65.0%
64.8%
10.3%
64.0%
56.6%
135,299
9.4%
9.4%
55.3%
53.9%
53.0%
52.3%
49.3%
47.9%
47.7%
47.1%
47.0%
7.9%
7.8%
46.0%
44.0%
43.4%
7.4%
41.5%
41.2%
6.9%
37.8%
6.4%
37.5%
6.1%
35.1%
32.8%
32.4%
30.8%
172,638
5.0%
4.7%
65,267 56,698
3.7%
3.5%
3.1%
3.0%
2.6%
120,329
1.3%
136,363
187,162
51,833 70,563
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 VIB ACB VCB* BID TCB CTG VPB HDB MBB 11M21 11M22 11M23
Sources: SBV, Company data, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam, VBMA
Note: (*) refers to 2Q23 data
Banks - Overcoming adversity (cont’d.)
• While deposit growth continued in 3Q23, we note a clear distinction between banks: Banks like HDB and VPB stand out, with significant YTD growth in new deposits. Funding
The exchange rate has rates are approaching historic lows, with both primary market (deposits) and secondary market (interbank) rates reversing since 2Q23.
temporarily stabilized • Looking ahead to 2024, we are optimistic for deposit growth driven by an improved economic outlook: While the Fed has not officially declared the conclusion of the monetary
tightening cycle, the prospect of further interest rate hikes appears to be ruled out. Instead, there are indications pointing toward potential rate cuts in 2024. Globally, economic
prospects are expected to improve. Domestically, while inflation and the exchange rate are at least temporarily under control, the poor economic performance in 2023 will likely
prompt authorities to adopt pro-growth measures. Despite slow progress in public investment compared with the annual plan (59%) in 11M23, YoY growth has been significant, at
+36% YoY. We expect public investment to continue to serve as a crucial driver of economic growth in 2024. A strong trade surplus in 11M23 also alleviates concerns about the
necessity of monetary tightening.
• While the exchange rate has temporarily stabilized, concerns about VND depreciation persist: As of end-November 2023, the VND exchange rate has depreciated by
approximately 3.4% YTD against the US dollar. Despite the interest rate parity, favorable factors, such as a surging trade surplus, substantial foreign direct investment, and robust
international tourism are supporting the Vietnamese exchange rate. In other words, maintaining the current interest rate gap carries the risk that the VND may continue to depreciate
if there are adverse changes in other supporting factors.
YTD deposit growth Interbank rates (%) Average deposit rates (%)
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q ON 1WK 1MTH 6.0

15.0%
9
5.5
13.9%
8
12.8%
7 5.0
6
9.6%
9.1%
8.6%
8.4%
4.5
7.9%
5
6.7%
6.6%
6.3%
5.9%
4
4.8%
4.0
4.7%
4.5%
4.4%
4.2%
3
3.6%
2.2%
2.2%
2
1.9%
3.5
1.1%
0.3%
1
0 3.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 May-21 Nov-21 May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Sources: SBV, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam
• In 3Q23, the Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) saw minor changes (+0.1%p QoQ, reaching 83.1%), while short-term funding to medium- and long-term lending ratio (SFMLL)
Signs of relief presents mixed picture: Despite the prevailing economic downturn, no extensions were granted to the SFMLL cap. The SBV maintained its path of tightening liquidity ratios within
the banking industry to promote more sustainable growth. While banks with high SFMLL are adjusting to the new standards, others are experiencing an increase in SFMLL, trying to
curb the decline in NIM. Conversely, lower lending rates are expected to stimulate CASA recovery, potentially worsening the situation. On a positive note, the expected yields of
investment assets, such as treasury bonds and deposits, are declining, easing concerns about rising funding costs.
• Capital Adequacy Ratios (CAR) of banks mostly declined in 3Q23: CAR followed a consistent trend across the banking sector in 3Q23 and 9M23, reflecting ongoing challenges, such
as reduced asset quality and weakened earnings. Excluding exceptional cases, such as VPB's private placement, we do not expect banks’ CAR to enjoy any notable short-term recovery;
instead, it should remain stable, due to subdued credit demand.
• Asset quality continued to deteriorate amid challenging economic conditions: 3Q23 results reveal a consistent rise in non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, with the NPL climbing to
3.5%, up 0.2%p QoQ and 1%p YTD. In absolute terms, NPLs reached VND208.5tr (US$8.5bn), indicating a 9.8% rise from the previous quarter and a substantial 52% surge since the
beginning of the year.
• Despite the ongoing rise in NPLs, several indicators suggest that the peak may be imminent: Factors such as declining interest rates in recent months, economic recovery, and a
slower pace in the development of overdue loans should contribute to the assumption. The decline in interest rates is expected not only to alleviate the growth of new NPLs, but also
to coincide with economic recovery, fostering credit expansion. This, in turn, should reduce the NPL ratio and generate earnings to absorb provisioning burdens. The gross NPL ratio
of listed banks, including groups 2–5, presented some divergence in the third quarter, but overall showed a reduction. Additionally, the formation of new bad debts (pre-write off) has
been gradually decreasing over the past four quarters. In summary, it is reasonable to assume that NPL levels could peak in late-2023 or early-2024.
NPL Quarterly incremental NPL (listed banks) (VNDtr) SFTMLL and regulated SFMLL timelines
2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
60.4
10/01/2023
35.0%
5.7%
5.7%
50.3
30.0%
44.1
39.2
25.0%
33.8
3.7%
3.7%
30.3
20.0%
27.3
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
24.5
2.5%
2.5%
2.2%
15.0%
2.2%
1.9%
1.7%
15.2
13.7
1.5%
1.4%
1.2%
10.0%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
7.1
5.0%
0.0%
VPB OCB VIB SHB TPB MSB LPB STB MBB TCB VCB 1Q21 3Q21 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 TCB OCB MSB VIB MBB VPB CTG ACB HDB
Sources: Company data, SBV, Mirae Asset Vietnam
• The decline in loan loss reserve ratio (LLR) showed no unexpected changes in 3Q23: Listed banks saw a decline in average LLR to 93.9% by end-3Q23, down 28.6%p YTD and 4.3%p
Systematic risks have QoQ. Additionally, the number of banks with an LLR of 100% or higher dropped to five, representing a YTD decrease of five banks. While an LLR lower than 100% does not necessarily
somewhat eased indicate a shortage in regulated provisions, some banks have struggled to maintain their LLR norms, due to subdued earnings and the pace of NPL formation. Notably, banks with
high LLR are utilizing their provisioning buffers to absorb the surge in provisioning, whereas those with lower LLR are experiencing profit strain, as they endeavour to sustain required
LLR. With expectations of a recovery in banking earnings and a slowdown in NPL formation, LLR is likely to recover in 2024.
• Systematic risks do persist, but they have somewhat eased: A concentration of matured bond batches is observed in 2023 and 2024. Having passed most of 2023 without major
events, other than concerns about potential bond defaults by major developers, the balance of corporate bonds maturing in the first three quarters of 2024 is relatively moderate
compared with previous quarters. The largest corporate bonds are set to mature in 4Q24, by which time the economy is expected to have had recovered for a considerable period.
While systematic risks still exist, they have been mitigated to some extent.
Loan loss coverage Corporate bonds to mature (VNDtr)
4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 CIs Bond Other
98
317.4%
270.1%
76
238.0%
216.8%
64
64
188.4%
57
55
172.4%
159.3%
158.4%
46
125.0%
122.0%
94.6%
93.0%
28
70.4%
25
54.4%
54.2%
53.9%
42.7%
41.4%
5
VCB CTG BID MBB ACB TCB HDB VPB VIB 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24
Sources: VBMA, Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam
• The ongoing reduction in interest rates has positively impacted the current and savings account (CASA) ratio during the mid-quarters of FY23: Despite variability in CASA
CASA shines, NIM is movements among banks, overall, there have been increases in 2Q and 3Q23. On average, the CASA of listed banks has risen by 1.4%p from its low in 1Q23 to 19.8% (-1.5%p YTD). We
nearing bottom expect the CASA ratio to continue its gradual recovery in the upcoming quarters, as relatively low funding rates lead to reduced funding costs.
• Despite facing pressure in 3Q23, there are signs that net interest margin (NIM) is nearing bottom: Due to deteriorating asset quality and significantly higher funding costs, NIM
has experienced a continuous decline. Specifically, the average NIM (TTM) for listed banks decreased by 75bps YTD, reaching 3% by end-3Q23. Fortunately, there is evidence that the
NIM of major banks has decreased at a slower pace, or even recovered. In addition, the average NIM of our coverage universe remained unchanged in 3Q23, at 4.1% (-60bps YTD). Key
assumptions for NIM recovery in 2024 include the bottoming-out of CASA, lower funding costs, and the expected resumption of high credit growth, although asset quality remains a
significant obstacle. However, the recovery should vary, based on the nature of each lending portfolio and the capability to optimize structure in terms of tenor.
CASA NIM
2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
7.8%
6.5%
40.6%
5.9%
37.1%
5.8%
37.0%
36.0%
35.5%
34.9%
5.5%
5.4%
33.9%
5.3%
33.6%
5.2%
5.1%
5.1%
32.0%
5.1%
5.0%
31.3%
4.9%
30.4%
4.8%
30.0%
4.7%
4.7%
4.6%
4.4%
4.4%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.0%
3.9%
24.2%
22.3%
3.5%
20.9%
20.6%
20.2%
3.3%
20.0%
3.2%
18.9%
18.7%
3.0%
3.0%
18.3%
3.0%
18.1%
3.0%
17.7%
2.9%
2.9%
17.0%
16.8%
2.7%
16.2%
2.7%
2.6%
15.0%
14.2%
13.8%
13.0%
12.9%
12.1%
10.6%
7.8%
7.4%
7.2%
MBB TCB VCB ACB CTG BID VPB VIB HDB MBB VPB VIB HDB TCB ACB VCB CTG BID
Sources: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam
• Despite adopting a cautious outlook, some banks have underestimated the upcoming challenges: In early-FY23, banks set conservative profit growth targets, expecting a
Earnings to improve in reasonable increase of around 13.5% YoY. Within our coverage, only four banks are on track to achieve their annual targets, while others may struggle. In 9M23, net interest income
medium term (NII) and net service income (NSI) experienced modest increases of 2.9% and 3.8% YoY, respectively, while net other income (NOI) declined by 3.4% YoY. In conjunction with weak
earnings, operating expenses and provisioning rose by 4.6% and 7.6% YoY, respectively. Overall, the adverse growth in non-interest income sources, coupled with increased
provisioning costs and operational expenses, resulted in stagnant performances by our coverage universe in 9M23.
• Earnings to improve in medium term: While we expect provisioning to continue at the current pace throughout 2024, with a decline in incremental NPL, most banks should see their
asset quality metrics return to pre-COVID-19 levels by FY24, or 1H25 at the latest. Profit momentum should resume from 2024 onward, driven by positive catalysts, such as the recovery
of net interest margin (NIM), significant credit growth from the low base established in 2023, and the overall economic recovery. In the interim, the muted returns from bancassurance
services present an unpredictable variable that could drive profit expansion once mortgage segment recovers. Simultaneously, the implementation of digitalization is seen as a way to
effectively reduce the positive correlation between operating expenses and incomes.
Pre-tax profit forecast (VNDbn)
2023 4Q23
2022 YoY 9M23 9M22 YoY Completion 4Q22 YoY 2023F 2024F YoY
(plan) (per plan)
ACB 20,058 17,114 17% 15,024 13,503 11% 75% 5,034 3,611 39% 19,576 21,383 9.2%
BID 26,460 23,058 15% 19,763 17,677 12% 75% 6,697 5,381 24% 24,048 30,525 26.9%
CTG N/A 21,113 N/A 17,401 15,764 10% 0% 23,114 27,472 18.9%
HDB 13,197 10,268 29% 8,632 8,016 8% 65% 4,565 2,252 103% 10,454 13,241 26.7%
MBB 26,138 22,729 15% 20,019 18,192 10% 77% 6,120 4,538 35% 25,973 30,451 17.2%
TCB 22,000 25,568 -14% 17,115 20,822 -18% 78% 4,885 4,746 3% 23,783 28,686 20.6%
VCB 42,973 37,359 15% 29,550 24,940 18% 69% 13,423 12,419 8% 45,154 52,693 16.7%
VIB 12,200 10,581 15% 8,325 7,814 7% 68% 3,875 2,767 40%
VPB 24,003 21,220 13% 8,279 19,837 -58% 34% 15,724 1,383 1037% 11,957 23,190 93.9%
Sources: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam
• We believe that the worst is behind us, with the local economy on the verge of recovery, and banks will successfully weather the storm, laying the foundation for investor confidence in
The journey of hope an upcoming recovery. We divided our investment thesis into two main categories, based on risk and return perspectives, as outlined below:
• Risk: On a low-risk basis, our preference lies with banks that boast resilient asset quality and proven track records, such as state-owned commercial banks, ACB, TCB, and
MBB. Among these, TCB and MBB are poised for a robust increase in their stock prices, as we believe they have been overly discounted, due to their relatively high exposures
to corporate bonds and high-end real estate. Concerns over these factors have been eased to some extent.
• Return: Only few banks are poised for a strong turnaround in 2024, including HDB and VPB. Catalysts for these banks include the recovery of consumer credit and
optimization of their asset structures. In addition, VPB possesses other positive factors, such as a low earnings base in 2023 and a fresh capital injection.
• Disappointing results overshadowed by positive prospects: The key short-term risk lies in the sharp declines in asset quality, coupled with the significant amount of bond batches
set to mature in 2024. However, growing confidence in the banking sector should help banks to weather the storm, thanks to insight recovery of local economy. Moreover, exchange
rate stability, along with the Fed's anticipated rate cuts in 2024, should encourage global economic growth. Given the changes in economic conditions, we expect negative factors to
gradually be replaced by positive ones. As a result, we believe that most of our coverage banks are good candidates for long-term strategical investments. Despite the uncertainties,
prevailing investor sentiment indicates that this could be an advantageous period to accumulate banking shares, especially during market corrections.
Banks’ stock performances Current market cap, ROE, and trailing P/B (avg. P/B of 12 top banks: 1.34)
30.0% 30.0
VIB
25.0
10.0% MBB ACB
VCB
HDB
20.0
ROE (%)
BID
-10.0% MSBOCB TPBSTB
CTG
15.0 TCB LPB
-30.0%
10.0 VPB
-50.0% 5.0
Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
P/B
VN-Index Banks-Index PJCBs SOCBs
Sources: Bloomberg (December 5, 2023), Mirae Asset Vietnam
Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB VN) Banks
Beyond the price tag

Nguyen Nguyen, nguyen.ndc@miraeasset.com.vn
Overview: JSCB For Foreign Trade Of Vietnam (Vietcombank–VCB) officially came into operation on April 1, 1963. Being the first state commercial bank chosen for pilot privatization
(Maintain) TRADING BUY by the Government, VCB became a CJSB on June 02, 2008, after successfully implementing the equitization plan through IPO. VCB has been listed on HOSE since 2009.
Investment points – Tightly managed expenses and robust incomes provided a strong foundation for profit growth
Target price • As of the end-3Q23, the total assets of VCB stood at VND1,731tr (US$70.7bn, -4.6% YTD or +1.6% QoQ). Net loans to customers increased by 2.7% YTD to VND1,500tr (US$47bn).
95,200
(VND, 12M) This growth underscores the bank's risk-averse stance in turbulent economic conditions, as it represented the lowest among the growth rates within our coverage. The retail
banking segment (+6% YTD) emerged as the primary driver of loan book expansion, while business banking grew slowly at 2.2% YTD. Despite the macro challenges, loan quality
remained relatively resilient to our coverage. The non-performing loan ratio (NPL) and gross NPL (including group 2 loans) increased by 53bps and 81bps YTD, reaching 1.21%
Current price
83,500 and 1.85%, respectively. In addition, the loan loss coverage ratio declined 47.3%p to 270.1%.
(1/02/24)
• Income from interest is poised to be the primary driver for profit growth and asset quality reinforcement in 2024. Despite having the capacity and leeway to significantly expand
its credit portfolio in 2023, VCB has opted not to do so. The bank has chosen to leverage existing resources to sustain profit growth without increasing credit exposure during a
Expected return 14% period of heightened risk. This once again underscores the consistent commitment to a cautious approach to VCB's risk profile. In 2024, we expect the bank to be more flexible
in disbursement, with credit growth expected to reach around 14-15%, given the brighter macro-outlook. Additionally, a private placement deals, aside from fortifying capital
buffers to support medium-term credit growth, will showcase VCB's appeal to investors, indirectly stabilizing the bank's perceived high valuation.
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 42,356
• We revised our target price for VCB to VND95,200 (up from VND79,700), equivalent to FY24 target P/B of 2.2x. The adjustment in the target price is based on the upward revision
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) NA
of profit projections for 2024 and 2025 by 1.5% and 16.3%, respectively. We incorporate a 20% premium into the original target price to account for VCB's leading position in
EPS Growth (24F, %) 17 both asset quality and profitability, as well as to factor in the potential upside risk from the private placement in 2024. A notable risk associated with the stock is its relatively
high valuation compared to other listed banks, potentially causing apprehension among investors, particularly the retail group.
P/E (24F, x) 9.3
Market cap (VND bn) 472,278 FY (31/12) 12/20 12/21 12/22 12/23F 12/24F 12/25F
Shares outstanding (mn) Net interest inc. (VNDbn) 36,285 42,400 53,246 61,318 67,983 71,495
5,589
Net non-interest inc. (VNDbn) 12,777 14,324 14,836 16,108 17,656 18,907
Free float (%) 25.2
Operating profit (VNDbn) 23,050 27,389 37,359 45,154 52,693 55,609
Foreign ownership (%) 23.4 NP (VNDbn) 18,451 21,919 29,892 36,297 42,356 44,700
52-week low (VND) 67,909 EPS (VND) 4,975 5,910 6,316 7,670 8,950 9,445
ROE (%) 21.1 21.6 24.2 23.2 22.9 22.7
52-week high (VND) 93,700
P/E (x) 15.8 12.1 12.5 10.9 9.3 8.8
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/B (x) 3.6 3.1 3.2 2.3 1.9 1.6
Absolute -1.7 -5.0 20.8 BVPS (VND) 25,370 29,421 29,158 35,952 43,782 52,083
Relative Total assets (VNDbn) 1,326,230 1,414,673 1,814,188 1,869,106 2,091,702 2,342,722
-3.9 -5.5 11.2
Equity (VNDbn) 94,095 109,117 137,988 168,743 205,482 250,740
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB VN) Banks
A twist of positivity
Overview: Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB), formerly known as Vietnam JSCB for Private Enterprises, was established in 1993. The Bank has its core business in mobilizing capital and
(Maintain) BUY crediting. In addition, VPBank also engages in international banking services, trades foreign currencies, financial investment, risk management and capital protection. VPBank has
been listed and traded on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) since August 2017.
Investment points – FE burden eased, paving the way for earnings recovery
Target price
23,800
(VND, 12M) • Within our coverage of banks, and even across the entire group of listed banks, VPB is projected to undergo the most substantial turnaround, largely attributed by its low base
in 2023. The key factors driving consolidated profit growth include the robust performance of the parent bank and the foreseen shift of the credit arm – FEC – from losses to a
positive position. In detail, the recovery of NIM is expected to be bolstered by the rebound of CASA, which has displayed signs of stabilization and a gradual increase to 16.8% in
Current price
18,850 3Q23 from its low of 14.2% in 1Q23. The upward trend of CASA somewhat reduce VPB's funding costs. Additionally, the robust loan growth experienced in 2023 (+24%), coupled
(1/02/24)
with the high growth in 2024 (+19%, thanks to a substantial capital injection from the private placement in late 2023), should bolster interest income growth in 2024.
• By the end of 3Q23, the bank's total assets grew significantly to VND780.2tr (approximately US$32bn, +23.6% YTD). The asset composition improved in terms of risk weight, with
Expected return 26% the interbank balance in IEA mix increasing from 10.1% in 2022 to 15% in 3Q23. Loans to customers reached VND521.6tr (US$21.3bn) as of 3Q23, up by 19% YTD, driven mainly
by a 31.9% YTD growth in commercial lending. Asset quality also improved, with a reduction in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 5.74%, being unchanged from 2022 but
down by 78 bps from the 2Q23 peak. The gross NPL ratio (including group 2) decreased by 94 bps QoQ to 13.77%.
• VPB's consumer credit division has announced that, after a period of restructuring, FE Credit has started to experience a gradual reduction in losses and has successfully
achieved positive profit growth in 3Q23. Along with the anticipated recovery of the consumer lending segment in 2024, VPB is expected to have both the capital and capabilities
EPS Growth (24F, %) 57 necessary to address FE Credit's long-term challenges and rekindle growth momentum, reminiscent of the pre-COVID era. During 3Q23, there was a notable rebound in the
consumer credit portfolio, exhibiting an 8.5% QoQ increase and surpassing the growth rate observed in retail portfolio of 5.4% QoQ.
P/E (24F, x) 8.3
7,934
Free float (%) 73.9
ROE (%) 21.9 17.0 19.1 9.5 12.2 14.5
P/E (x) 5.1 8.1 7.9 13.1 8.3 6.7
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/B (x) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.9
Absolute -2.3 -3.6 5.3 BVPS (VND) 22,187 17,891 14,490 17,406 19,743 22,963
Relative Total assets (VNDbn) 419,027 547,626 631,013 789,851 899,626 1,004,196
-5.0 -4.1 -7.1
Equity (VNDbn) 52,794 86,451 103,502 138,681 157,211 184,626
Vietnam Technological And Commercial JSB (TCB VN) Banks
The interplay of positives and negatives

Overview: Vietnam Technological And Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Techcombank) was established in 1993. The Bank has its business in mobilisation and trade of capital, and
(Maintain) TRADING BUY provision of relevant financial services. Techcombank has become a public company since 2007 and listed its shares on Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HOSE) since 2Q18.
Investment points
Target price • Bank profits are expected to rebound soon, accompanied by promising long-term growth prospects. The bank maintains robust liquidity, with a high CAR of 15% and a low LDR
35,800
(VND, 12M) of 76.7%, that would lay strong foundation for substantial credit growth in the years ahead. It is anticipated that the retail segment of the bank should see a notable recovery in
2024, particularly in mortgage, thereby bolstering its NIM during the period. On the other hand, we are cautious not to set overly optimistic expectations for a robust NIM, as
Current price seen in the 2020-2022 period, when the bank's tenor structure seemed to achieve a balance (SFMLL is approaching the new ceiling).
32,100
(1/02/24) • The expected reduction in provisioning based on the anticipation that NPL will soon reach their peak; and potential recovery in key income sources, such as bancassurance and
corporate bonds related services, are supposed to contribute to TCB's net earnings growth. Overall, the bank's bottom line is forecasted to see a growth of 20% in 2024.
Expected return 12% • As of 3Q23, the bank's total assets reached VND781.3tr, marking an 11.8% YTD increase. In detail, the credit portfolio expanded by 13.4% YTD, reaching VND524tr, driven by
increased business banking (+53.6% YTD) and wholesale banking (+17.1% YTD). Meanwhile, retail lending decreased by 7.5% YTD, totalling VND210tr. The change in credit
structure, along with higher funding costs, led to a 1.1% YTD reduction in the NIM to 4.2% as of 3Q23 - the lowest since 2019. Loan quality also deteriorated, with a higher NPL
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 22,266 ratio of 1.36% (+45bps YTD) and a lower loan loss reserve ratio of 95.9% (-29.9%p YTD).
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) NA • The bank continues to grapple with concentration risk, which has proven to be persistent. Loan exposure to large corporations increased significantly, rising from 35.9% in 2022
to 45.8% by the end of 3Q23. In addition, considering exposure to specific industries, the credit portfolio related to the real estate sector surged to 74.2% in 3Q23, marking a
EPS Growth (24F, %) 20
3.2%p YTD increase. The growth was primarily attributed to the expansion in business lending (+61.9% YTD) rather than mortgage lending (-12.8% YTD).
P/E (24F, x) 4.8
3,523
Free float (%) 65.0
ROE (%) 18.0 21.5 19.5 15.1 15.7 16.5
P/E (x) 9.0 6.1 5.5 5.7 4.8 4.1
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/B (x) 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6
Absolute 7.9 1.7 24.2 BVPS (VND) 21,289 26,505 32,248 37,126 43,192 50,607
Relative Total assets (VNDbn) 439,603 568,811 699,033 773,479 865,547 954,062
5.2 1.3 11.8
Equity (VNDbn) 74,615 93,056 113,425 130,776 152,374 178,799
Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBB VN) Banks
Robust growing bank

Quan Ton, quan.td@miraeasset.com.vn
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY Overview: Founded in 1994, Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBB VN), also known as MB Bank, initially served military enterprises engaged in commercial production. Viettel
Group, a state-run telecom conglomerate, became MBB's strategic partner in 2008, holding a 12.3% stake in the bank. MBB is notable for its robust CASA ratio, emphasis on
Information Technology development, and diverse financial ecosystem encompassing securities, consumer lending, insurance.
Target price
22,500
(VND, 12M) NIM improvement expected in 2024: In 9M23, MB’s PBT reached VND20,018bn (+10% YoY), achieving 76% of the 2023 profit plan. With this figure, MB surpasses TCB and
currently places the 2nd position in PBT rankings, behind VCB. MB's CoF had risen continuously since 1Q22, likely peaked at 4% in 2Q23, and saw the first sign of reduction in 3Q23.
We project the CoF to decrease to 3.7% in 4Q23 thanks to maturing high-interest deposits and an improved funding structure with a higher CASA ratio. We forecast MB’s 2024 PBT
Current price
18,850 to reach VND30,451bn (+17.2% YoY) thanks to: (1) NII improvement driven by recovering credit growth and an enhancing NIM through CoF reduction, (2) increasing fee income as
(1/02/24)
the insurance sector rebounds from phase of intense regulatory scrutiny, and (3) controlling provision expenses amid reducing NPL risk.
Stronger than industry credit growth: By end-3Q23, MBB recorded a 13.7% YTD credit growth at VND577tr, significantly higher than the industry’s 6.9% growth rate. Corporate
Expected return 19% bond holdings decreased by 13% YTD to VND41tr (representing 5% of MB’s total assets). We forecast MBB's loan growth of 22.5% in 2023, based on the outstanding CAR ratio
(11.3%) and increasing credit room granted by SBV (24%).
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 23,394 NPL increased notably, but rise has decelerated: By end-3Q23, MBB’s NPL increased to 1.89% from 1.4% in 2Q23, marking its highest level since 2016. Provision expenses for
3Q23 also surged by 50.5% YoY and LLR dropped 34%p QoQ to 122% (ranking 4th among banks). A bright spot has been the reduction in the ratio of Group 2 loans, which has
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) N/A
decreased to 3% from 3.6% in 3Q23.
EPS Growth (24F, %) 1.9
Risks: (1) Continued macro weakness and a rising NPL ratio could lead to increasing provision expenses, impacting profitability; (2) overall lackluster demand for credit,
P/E (24F, x) 4.8 particularly the real estate sector.
(%) VN-Index MBB VN
130
5,214
125
Free float (%) 55.0 120
115
110
52-week low (VND) 14,609 105 EPS (VND) 2,876 3,229 3,673 3,645 3,717 3,976
100 ROE (%) 18.4 22.6 24.6 22.3 21.1 20.7
52-week high (VND) 19,400 95 P/E (x) 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.5
90
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/B (x) 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
85
Absolute 0.8 6.5 18.6 BVPS (VND) 17,441 15,892 16,727 18,159 19,474 21,175
80
Relative Dec 22 Feb 23 Apr 23 Jun 23 Aug 23 Oct 23 Dec 23 Total assets (VNDbn) 494,982 607,140 728,532 874,241 1,018,229 1,173,089
-0.6 6.6 12.2
Equity (VNDbn) 50,099 62,486 79,613 99,394 122,584 150,619
Oil and Gas – The year of story-driven stocks Oil & Gas
Future outlook: Geopolitical crises trigger oil price volatility
Anchoring around Since post-pandemic, geopolitical tensions have been a key factor, causing instability in world energy markets. Notably, Russia – Ukraine conflict has reshaped the market flows, leading to a
significant surge in oil flow through the Red Sea. According to Clarkson, 12% of oil products and 8% of crude oil pass through the Red Sea, with this ratio reaching 20% for Suezmax or smaller
US$80/bbl crude oil tankers. Consequently, current hotspots of conflict in this region may trigger large swings in oil prices and potentially create short-term supply imbalances.
Ongoing OPEC+ production cuts with diminished impact
At least four times in the past 15 months, OPEC+ members have cut oil production, but could not restrain the decline in oil prices. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC+ has
seen its share of the oil market shrink to 51%, the lowest since 2016. The efficacy of OPEC's production curbs in bolstering oil prices seems to have diminished, given the dramatic surge in
non-OPEC supply, particularly amid sluggish global economic growth. Especially, OPEC members are at odds over agreeing to cut output following Angola’s exit from the cartel due to
disagreements over quotas.
Record-breaking US production
According to EIA, the US, the world's leading oil producer, showed a record high of 13.2mnbpd (+8% YoY) in the crude oil and condensate production in September 2023, pushing the Brent
crude oil price drop to US$75/bbl by beginning-December 2023. Record-shattering production is helping to counter aggressive supply cuts meant to maintain high prices by OPEC+,
particularly by key players like Saudi Arabia and Russia. The abundance of the supply could reduce the concerns about short-term shortages.
Future outlook: Anchoring around US$80/bbl
Given the aforementioned factors, we believe that the oil price will continuously anchor around US$80/bbl in 2024 (-2.8% YoY). However, black swan events are always present, and they could
generate potential upward shocks in oil prices. Such events could force prices to surpass our anticipated levels, as witnessed in 3Q23.
The Red Sea is once again a vital oil route due to Russia – Ukraine conflict (mn bblpd) Geopolitical risk triggered higher oil prices
(US$/bbl)
130
Pre-conflict
110
2022: 99.5
90 2023: 82.3
Post-conflict 70
50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 04/2022 07/2022 10/2022 01/2023 04/2023 07/2023 10/2023
Russian crude Middle Eastern crude Clean products Dirty products Brent WTI Average Brent price
Source: Bloomberg and Kpler
Note: The pre-conflict period: Jan 1 to Feb. 20, 2022, the post-conflict period: June 1 to Nov. 30, 2023.
Oil and Gas – The year of story-driven stocks (cont’d.) Oil & Gas
Facing the resource depletion

LNG is a must As primary oil fields naturally enter a phase of depletion, domestic oil production has experienced an annual decline of 11% from 2016 to 2020. Looking ahead to 2021-2025, this trend is
expected to persist, with an estimated continuous annual decrease of 6%, as projected by PVN.
The natural gas is also depleting with an average reduction of 0.5mn bcmpa (accounting for 6.6% of FY23F output). Major gas fields in the Cuu Long basin, including Bach Ho, are witnessing a
significant decline, with an annual drain-out of 10–15%, marking the end of the project lifecycle. The Nam Con Son 1 Basin faces a similar challenge. The early deployed fields like Lan Tay - Lan
Do/Block 06.1 and Rong Doi – Rong Doi Tay/Block 11-2 are experiencing rapid output declines.
Petroleum Law amendments applied since July 1, 2023, that has helped partly resolve the supply shortage by expanding investment mechanisms concentrating on small fields. However, they
fall short of fully addressing the current depreciation challenges. As a result, the LNG import coupled with two key development upstream projects (Block B O Mon and Su Tu Trang 2B) will be
the main additional source to compensate for the problems.
LNG investment is a must
According to the National Power Development Plan VIII, LNG thermal power capacity is expected to reach 22,400 MW by 2030 (accounting for 14.9% of total power capacity). To meet this
surge in LNG demand, promoting investment in LNG terminals is necessary, delivering a huge of workloads for upstream entities like PVS, PVX through many EPCI contracts.
Despite successfully importing LNG since August 2023, the lack of legal framework is still a bottleneck for the consumer market. According to GAS, the company proposed a price mechanism
for LNG to the Ministry of Industry and Trade in December 2023 and expected it to be presented to the Prime Minister in 1H24. While waiting for the Nhon Trach 3&4 plans to be operational,
industrial customers are poised to be the primary market for LNG consumption.
This energy transition is expected to mark a new era for the Vietnamese energy market, leveraging increased LNG imports to offset natural gas depletion.
New projects (including LNG source) will offset the depletion of existing basins
(bn bcm)
Existing gas source Block B Su Tu Trang 2B LNG import
30
Su Tu Trang – phase 2B: first-gas @1H27
25
Block B: first-gas @late-2026
20
LNG import: commence @2H24

15
10
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
Source: GAS, PVN, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation (GAS VN) Gas Utilities
Exploring growth opportunities in new projects

Duy Nguyen, duy.nk@miraeasset.com.vn
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY Overview: As a member of the Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group, the PV Gas Company was founded in 1990, with the mission of extracting, shipping, processing, storing, and
selling gas and gas products. The company was listed on HOSE in May 2012. PVGAS is the main supplier of dry gas to Vietnam's power facilities and fertilizer factories.
Target price Unlocking long-term growth potential: The prospective projects including the LNG Thi Vai terminal and Block B O Mon gas pipeline are expected to become operational in 2025
98,300 and late 2026, respectively, making substantial contributions to revenue. In detail, the gas supply from the Block B O Mon gas field is expected to reach approximately 5.06-5.7
(VND, 12M)
bcmpa (~65% of the current gas supply), offsetting the 7% annual depreciation in gas field exploitation. Meanwhile, the main growth driver in 2025F-2026F will be the rise in LNG
consumption for industrial customers. Operating the LNG Thi Vai phase 1 at full capacity for the Nhon Trach 3-4 power plants will generate up to VND13,000bn in annual revenue.
Current price
75,600
(1/02/24) Block B O Mon project update: On October 30, 2023, PetroVietnam (PVN) held a signing and implementation ceremony for the Block B O Mon gas-to-power value chain project.
This included signing of: 1) The Heads of Agreement (HOA) for the Block B project between PVN, MOECO (Japan), and PTTEP (Thailand). 2) The Minute of Agreement for the Gas
Sales Agreement (GSA) for the O Mon 1 power plant between PVN and GENCO2. Regarding construction, awarding of the Upstream EPCI#1, EPCI#2, and onshore pipeline packages
Expected return 30% between PQPOC, PVS, and relevant entities, representing the contractor consortium with the value of US$1.1bn, US$400mn and US$300mn, respectively, was continuously
announced in October – December 2023. Thus, the FID approval is imminent as key milestones are underway.
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 11,316 A quiet year ahead: In 4Q23, the consumption by the gas-fired power plants (70% of dry gas volume) will be reduced continuously (9M23: -3.6% YoY) due to EVN’s lower
mobilization from these plants. However, concerning on geopolitical risk in Middle East has boosted the average FO price in 4Q23 to US$466/tons (+17.7% YoY), offsetting the
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) NA reduction of consumption. As a result, PVGAS announced preliminary revenue of VND93,000bn (-7.7% YoY) and NPAT of VND11,300bn (-23.6% YoY) in 2023, which were 11.9% and
EPS Growth (24F, %) 1 1% higher than our forecast. We anticipate a relatively quiet year for GAS in 2024 as existing gas resources deplete without new sources. We forecast revenue and NPATMI to be
YoY flat at VND93,636bn and VND11,316bn, respectively, based on the following assumptions: 1) A marginal 1% YoY decrease in dry gas consumption (50% of total revenue) and a
P/E (24F, x) 15.2 flat YoY gas selling price; 2) LNG consumption will start to contribute to revenue with estimated initial capacity of 10% for industrial customers and gradually increase thereafter.
Market cap (VND bn) 173,634 FY (31/12) 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Shares outstanding (mn) Revenue (VNDbn) 64,135 78,992 100,724 83,132 93,636 99,373
2,297
OP (VNDbn) 8,694 10,374 17,799 13,085 13,409 13,682
Free float (%) 4.2
OP margin 13.6 13.1 17.7 15.7 14.3 13.8
Foreign ownership (%) 2.7 EBITDA 11,250 13,494 20,933 16,024 16,536 17,042
52-week low (VND) 74,200 NP (VNDbn) 7,855 8,673 14,798 11,182 11,316 11,656
EPS (VND) 4,104 4,531 7,732 4,869 4,927 5,075
ROE 16.1 17.4 26.6 17.4 16.3 15.7
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E(x) 19.9 20.7 13.1 15.3 15.2 14.7
Absolute -2.7 -4.7 -10.6 P/B (x) 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.2
-5.4 -5.2 -23.0
Equity (VNDbn) 49,500 52,193 61,174 69,489 73,348 78,387
Binh Duong Water-Environment Corporation JSC (BWE VN) Water Utilities
Accelerating growth through M&A

Duy Nguyen, duy.nk@miraeasset.com.vn
Overview: BWE, formerly known as Binh Duong Water Supply Center, was established in 1975. BWE enjoys a monopoly in providing clean water and waste treatment services in
(Maintain) BUY Binh Duong province. With a total designed capacity of 820,000 bcmpd, BWE ranks third in the sector, following Sawaco and REE. Its shares were officially listed on HOSE in 2016.
Investment points:
Target price
50,600 • Accelerating growth through M&A: Facing sluggish organic growth at Binh Duong market with a flat YoY water consumption in 11M23, BWE has aggressively expanded
(VND, 12M)
footprints in other provinces through M&A since 2023. In 2023, BWE successfully completed 14 deals with a total investment value of VND1,350bn. These transactions targeted
entities dominating market share in key regions experiencing high urbanization. Post-M&A, BWE has increased the effective capacity to 930,000 bcmpd (+12.4% YTD). As a result,
Current price the acquisition of BWE Long An is expected to contribute VND150bn and VND35bn in consolidated revenue and NPAT. Meanwhile, the associates will also bring a double joint
40,700
(1/02/24) venture income stream of VND40bn per annum.
• Sharp reduction in interest expense to support the margin: To capture the growth strategy, BWE raised approximately VND750bn in 9M23. Totaling long-term debt of
Expected return 24% VND3,434bn, coupled with high interest rate environment increased led to a 75% YoY increase in interest expenses in 9M23. Fortunately, financial conditions have currently
eased to make refinancing the existing debt balance, especially the offshore loans referencing to LIBOR rate (accounting for 55.7% long-term debt). The reduction in exposure
expense is expected to affect earnings in 2H24 thanks to the potential rate cuts by central banks for the first time.
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 887
Forecast and valuation: In 2023, BWE is expected to record a YoY flat earnings due to: 1) modest water consumption growth in Binh Duong amid unchanged ASP; 2) higher
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) n/a interest expense to distort net profit. In turn, this sets a low foundation for 2024 growth. In detail, we forecast the revenue and NPATMI to achieve VND4,026bn (+7.5% YoY) and
VND887bn (+16.9 YoY), respectively, based on some assumptions: 1) a 5Y CAGR of 10% in waste and water sewage; and 2) aforementioned factors. We evaluate BWE using FCFE
model at VND50,600/share. The current stock price has been significantly discounted, although the outlook for BWE remains promising.
P/E (24F, x) 10.3
193
OP (VNDbn) 747 845 919 971 1,003 1,142
Free float (%) 3.5
OP margin 24.7% 27.1% 26.4% 25.9% 24.9% 26.1%
Foreign ownership (%) 16.6 EBITDA 1,218 1,503 1,488 1,704 2,042 2,249
52-week low (VND) 39,700 NP (VNDbn) 535.4 748.6 742.8 759.0 887.0 1,037.3
EPS (VND) 2,748 3,254 3,196 3,383 3,954 4,624
ROE 19.09% 20.59% 17.64% 16.1% 17.1% 18.0%
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E(x) 11.5 13.2 15.1 12.0 10.3 8.8
Absolute -4.6 -6.4 -17.8 P/B (x) 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4
-7.3 -6.9 -30.2
Equity (VNDbn) 2,200 3,409 3,925 4,538 4,944 5,459
Clean water consumption in 11M23 was moderate Spare capacity is sufficient to fulfill rising further demand
(mn bcm) mn bcm

2021 2022 2023 Water supply capacity Clean water productivity Sold clean water productivity
17.0 290 267 267
250 236
16.0 227
216.3
207 204.8
210 193.9
185
15.0 174.5 174.5 174.5 176
170 152.6 164
140.6
14.0 125.2
130 106.8
113.5
103.8
85.4 85.4 85.6 91.3
13.0 80.9
90
62.8
54.6 81.2 74 83 98 113 132 155 165 174 181.2 191.5 202.2
12.0 50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Water consumption per customer at Binh Duong province has been diminishing since 2018 Higher debt exposure and higher interest expense decreased the earnings
(number of (bcm per customer)

Acc. customer Consumption per customer Short-term loans Long-term loans Average interest rate NPATMI margin
customer)
500,000 600
6,000 30.00%
588
570
400,000 563 5,000 25.00%
546 540
533 4,000 20.00%
300,000 531
513 510 3,000 15.00%
502
200,000 492
480 2,000 10.00%
100,000
450 1,000 5.00%
0 420 0 0.00%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Sources: BWE, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Water supply ecosystem (parent company owns 760,000 bcmpd of designed capacity)
Charter capital Designed capacity Historical cost

Name Ticker Location Owned by BWE
(VNDbn) (bcmpd) (VNDbn)
Financial investment
Dong Nai Water JSC DNW Dong Nai 1,000 19% 500,000 361
Associates
Can Tho Water Supply - Sewage JSC CTW Can Tho 280 25% 97,500 153
Can Tho 2 Water Supply JSC CT2 Can Tho 118 49% 55,000 149
Long An Water Supply Sewerage JSC LAW Long An 112 38% 46,000 93
Vinh Long Water Supply JSC VLW Vinh Long 289 18% (*) 48,000 191
Gia Tan Water JSC GIWACO Dong Nai 412 36% 20,000 164
Quang Binh Water Supply JSC NQB Quang Binh 172 41% 38,000 95
Subsidiaries
BWE Long An JSC DNP LA Long An 484 93% 60,000 635
Bang Tam Water and Environment Corp. Long An 12 77% N/A 30
Can Giuoc Urban Project JSC Long An 4 97% N/A 35
Chau Thanh Urban Project JSC Long An 7 96% N/A 31
Sources: BWE, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research (* holding through a subsidiary)
Commercial real estate – Room for expansion
- Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, with limited land bank, continue to be the fertile commercial leasing markets. In 2023, Hanoi opened Lotte Mall Lakeview Shopping Center,
Vietnam is the fertile meanwhile Ho Chi Minh City reopened Hung Vuong Plaza Shopping Center. Both shopping malls have achieved full occupancy rates, showing the high demand in this sector. In
land for commercial 2024-2025, the market is expected to launch about 218 thousand m2 of floor space in Hanoi and 96 thousand m2 of floor space in Ho Chi Minh City.
leasing - Large shopping mall model also spreads to other provinces: In the South and Center, Central Retail expanded its supermarket system in Dong Nai and Quang Nam; Aeon
experimented a new mall model in Binh Duong, and Thiso opened its third Emart in Go Vap district, HCMC.
- Rising rental prices amid scarce supply over the past two years: Asking rental prices in the central area of Ho Chi Minh City nearly doubled from US$150/m2/month in 2021 to
about US$250/m2/month in 3Q23. In Hanoi, although prices are lower, they have also increased by 1.5x from approximately US$100/m2/month in 2021 to more than
US$150/m2/month currently. In contrast, suburban areas did not see major changes in rental prices.
- Expansion potential compared to regional markets: By 1H23, the commercial floor area per capita in Hanoi (0.14 m2) and Ho Chi Minh City (0.12 m2) remains relatively low
compared to other cities in the region, such as Kuala Lumpur (0.35 m2), Manila (0.52 m2), Bangkok (0.92 m2). Despite market challenges, retail revenue growth was high, up 6.5% YoY
in 1H23, surpassing the growth rates of most countries in the region such as Malaysia (6%), Singapore (1.1%), and Thailand (1%), and only being slightly lower than that of Indonesia
(7.9%).
- Short-term challenge: The footfall at many large shopping malls has not yet returned to pre-epidemic levels, while consumer confidence remains subdued.
GFA per capita compared to several regional cities (m2) Rental prices (US$/m2/month)
1.09 Rental prices - HCMC central Rental prices - HCMC non-central
Rental prices - Hanoi central Rental prices - Hanoi non-central

0.92
300
250
0.52 200
0.48
150
0.35
100
0.14 0.12
50
0
Singapore Bangkok Manila Jarkata Kuala Lumpur Hanoi HCMC 2020 2021 2022 Q1/2023 Q2/2023 Q3/2023
Source: CBRE, VRE, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Residential real estate – Tight supply
Persistently HCMC market
challenged market ⁃ 9M23 supply is low, with only about 8,000 apartments offered for sale. We anticipate that 2023 will mark a record low in supply. On top of that, most apartments launched in 9M23
came from the high-end segment, and the situation will continue in the next 1-2 years. Selling prices have hardly decreased since last year. However, to support potential buyers,
despite policy developers have many promotional programs such as loan support, or delayed payment options.
support ⁃ In the townhouse segment, 2023 supply in the primary market is extremely limited, while transactions in the secondary market are also few and far between. However, we expect the
market will make a comeback in 2024 with the launch of new projects in the East and the South, such as the An Hung Residence project (Nha Be) or Global City (Thu Duc). Asking prices
have experienced no significant fluctuations since the substantial land fever in early 2022, and developers also offered incentive packages such as rental commitments to attract home
buyers.
Hanoi market
⁃ Hanoi market in 9M23 only had about 7,000 apartments for sale, with another 5,000 units being available in 4Q23. This brings the total number of units in the year to 12,000 units,
marking another year with low supply, similar to the situation in Ho Chi Minh City. Scarce supply, coupled with a focus on the high-end and mid-end segments, has propelled average
asking prices in these segments to the highest levels in recent years (VND60mn/m2 for the high-end segment and VND40mn/m2 for the mid-end segment).
⁃ The townhouse segment in Hanoi is expected to have about 3,000 units in 2023 thanks to projects in Hung Yen as well as in the West and the North of Hanoi. Although the supply is
lower than last year with nearly 20,000 apartments from Vinhomes projects, it is still almost unchanged compared to the 2018 – 2021 period. The absorption rate remains stable, partly
thanks to a slight decrease in selling prices after reaching its peak in 3Q22 and developers’ flexible sales strategies.
HCMC apartment market Hanoi apartment market
16,000 250% 7,000 180%
14,000 6,000 150%

200%
12,000
5,000
120%
10,000 150%
4,000
8,000 90%
3,000
6,000 100%
60%
2,000
4,000
50%
1,000 30%
2,000
- 0% - 0%
Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23
Supply Demand Absorption rate Supply Demand Absorption rate
Source: CBRE, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Real estate – Potential comeback in 2024
Listed developers’ Stabilization of financial health
⁃ In 2023, real estate companies have proactively bought back bonds before maturity, and gradually reduced debt. In 10M23, the total value of repurchased bonds was up to VND161tn
financial health is (2022: VND219tn). New issuance was also limited, with only VND71tn of bonds issued in 10M23, compared to a record amount of VND214tn in 2021.
improving ⁃ This strategy has helped many developers reduce financial pressure in the future, but at the same time, the downturn in market sentiment has presented challenges for many
developers to sell their units. Among the top 10 major real estate companies, only KHG, VHM and VRE recorded a significant improvement in the EBITDA/Debt ratio, the remaining
businesses experienced a decline in debt repayment ability compared to the same period last year.
⁃ In addition, Circular No. 02/2023/TT-NHNN on restructuring debt repayment term and retention of debt category, is under consideration for an extension by the State Bank of Vietnam
to support both banks and developers in accessing capital.
Housing law and real estate business law will come into effect in 2025
⁃ The 2023 housing law introduces significant changes, expanding eligible subjects for developing and purchasing social housing. It includes additional preferential policies for social
housing buyers and removes the requirement for developers to allocate a minimum of 20% of the commercial land bank for social housing, a hurdle for many real estate developers.
⁃ The new real estate business law mandates that the deposit should not exceed 5% of the total transaction value, and the first payment should not surpass 30% of the total value. While
this protects home buyers, it may pose challenges for some developers in balancing cash flow.
Maturing real estate bonds (VNDtn) Total loans/Total assets
27.0 3Q22 3Q23
0.40
23.3
0.35
19.1
17.2 0.30
15.6
14.7 0.25
12.4
10.7 0.20
7.7 8.3 0.15
0.10
2.7 3.2
1.9 0.05
0.00
Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 DXG HDC KDH KHG NLG NVL PDR VHM VRE
Source: VBMA, Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Vincom Retail JSC (VRE VN) Commercial Real Estate
Achieving new heights

Long Tran, long.tt@miraeasset.com.vn
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
• Overview: Vincom Retail Limited Company (VRE) was established in 2012. In 2013, it became the Vincom Retail Joint Stock Company. In 2017, its shares were listed on the Ho Chi
Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE).
Target price • We expect the commercial real estate segment to continue its recovery. Footfall in 3Q23 reached 89% of pre-Covid level, and is expected to return to pre-Covid levels in 2024.
32,000
(VND, 12M) Rental prices are still high, despite the slowing down economic situation. In 2024, VRE will open Vincom Megamall Grand Park in Ho Chi Minh City (46,000 m2, April 2024),
Vincom Megamall Ocean Park 2 (56,000 m2), and a number of Vincom Plaza projects in Ha Giang, Bac Giang, Dien Bien, Dong Ha. They will provide the market with a significant
Current price amount of supply (~ 160,000 m2) and contribute to revenue growth for VRE by 13% and 7%, respectively, in 2024 and 2025.
23,100
(1/02/24) • Additional projects in progress include Vincom Megamall Phu Yen, Vincom Megamall Co Loa. According to VRE, the company has allocated a land fund for the development of
2-3 shopping malls in Ho Chi Minh City and one shopping mall in Long An. VRE plans to hand over about 100 shophouses at the project in Dong Ha, Quang Tri in 4Q23.
Expected return 39% • Occupancy rate increased slightly YoY to 85.4% in 3Q23 (2Q23: 85.5%, 3Q22: 84%), and management aims to improve the rate to 90% by end-2023. Total debts decreased
significantly from VND3.2tn in 2022 to VND2.2tn in 3Q23 (-32% YTD), while cash increased to VND8.8tn (+24% YTD), showing strong financial health.
• 9M23 saw VRE earn VND7.4tn in revenue (+43% YoY) and VND3.3tn in net profit (+72% YoY), completing 70% of the profit target. In 9M23, revenue from leasing operation
reached VND5.8tn (+19% YoY) while revenue from real estate handover reached VND1.5tn (+600% YoY).
• VRE stock is trading at 2024F P/E 12x and P/B 1.8x, 58% and 19% lower than the 5-year average, respectively.
P/E (24F, x) 12.0
2,272
OP (VNDbn) 3,093 1,757 3,453 5,115 6,147 6,856
Free float (%) 26.4
OP margin (%) 37.1 29.8 46.9 54.2 50.8 54.4
Foreign ownership (%) 31.9 PBT (VNDbn) 4,841 3,626 4,725 5,165 5,483 6,321
52-week low (VND) 21,600 NP (VNDbn) 2,382 1,315 2,776 4,132 4,387 5,057
EPS (VND) 1,048 578 1,222 1,774 1,883 2,171
ROE (%) 8.5 4.4 8.3 11.7 11.9 12.8
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 30.0 52.1 21.5 12.7 12.0 10.4
Absolute 3.5 -14.3 -9.3 P/B (x) 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6
1.5 -12.5 -18.8
Equity (VNDbn) 29,336 30,651 33,425 35,228 36,886 39,615
Vinhomes JSC (VHM VN) Residential Real Estate
Sustaining the lead

Investment points
(Maintain) BUY • Overview: Vinhomes JSC (VHM) was established in 2008. In 2011, it became a public company. In 2018, its shares were listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE).
• Sales are expected to maintain growth momentum in 2024: We forecast VHM will have another good year with three projects launched: Vinhomes Vu Yen project (877ha, Hai Phong),
Vinhomes Co Loa (385ha, Hanoi), Vinhomes Wonder Park (133ha, Hanoi). Furthermore, three social housing projects in Hai Phong, Thanh Hoa, and Quang Tri are slated for launch in 4Q23
Target price and 2024. In 2024 – 2025 period, we expect the real estate market to improve at a relatively slow pace. However, most of VHM' projects are in prime locations and have full legality, and if
63,000
(VND, 12M) mortgage rates continue to decline, buyer sentiment will bounce back. We forecast VHM' revenue growth of 15% and 8% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
• Higher debt burden hurt market sentiment: VHM' debt increased to VND43.1tn (+21% YoY) in 3Q23, with around VND13.5tn — or 32% of total debt — due in less than a year. In
Current price November 2023, VHM disclosed a resolution to issue private bonds, anticipating a continual rise in total debt. The proposed issuance has a total par value of VND2,000bn and a maximum
43,000 maturity period of 24 months. In 3Q23, bank loans comprised 60% of total debts, all backed by collateral assets. Meanwhile, outstanding bonds was VND6.5tn, in which, about 65% of total
(1/02/24)
value did not have collaterals. Despite a debt/total asset ratio of VHM of 10% by end-3Q23, still being much lower than those of its peers, VHM’s stocks may suffer from market’s fear that
the company may shoulder higher debt burden for the whole Vin Group.
Expected return 47% • 9M23 business results:

• VHM reached VND94.6tn of revenue (+203% YoY) and VND32.4tn (+62% YoY) of EAT in 9M23, exceeding the profit target by 8%. As factoring in revenue from BCC contracts and
financial income, its total revenue reached VND108tn in 9M23, exceeding this year’s target.
• In 3Q23, VHM recorded VND11.3tn in bulk sales from the project in Vu Yen, Hai Phong, accounting for 70% of total presales. Presales grew by VND16.1tn (-9% YoY) in 3Q23 and
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) Na thus increased total presales in 9M23 to VND56.1tn, down by 50% YoY because VHM opened the Ocean Park 2 for sale in 1H22.
• Unbilled bookings by end-9M23 decreased to VND76.9tn, divided equally among the Ocean Park 1, 2, 3 and a small part of Smart City and Grand Park. On top of that, four new
projects have been licensed, with a total area of more than 950 hectares in Tuyen Quang, Hai Phong, and Bac Giang.
P/E (24F, x) 2.9
FY (31/12) 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Market cap (VND bn) 179,400 Revenue (VNDbn) 71,547 84,986 62,393 111,460 128,759 139,375
Shares outstanding (mn) 4,354 OP (VNDbn) 21,062 42,402 37,973 63,724 71,947 75,415
OP margin (%) 29.4 49.9 60.9 57.2 55.9 54.1
Free float (%) 21.1
PBT (VNDbn) 36,517 48,183 38,643 65,596 74,105 77,762
Foreign ownership (%) 22.6
NP (VNDbn) 27,351 38,825 28,831 51,692 58,701 61,461
52-week low (VND) 36,750
EPS (VND) 6,396 9,015 6,621 11,871 13,481 14,115
52-week high (VND) 66,200 ROE (%) 38.6 36.9 19.6 27.3 24.4 21.0
P/E (x) 10.8 9.1 7.2 3.3 2.9 2.7
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/B (x) 3.4 2.9 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.6
Absolute 5.4 -25.6 -17.3
Total assets (VNDbn) 215,326 230,516 361,813 399,061 480,819 558,662
Relative 3.4 -23.8 -26.8
Equity (VNDbn) 89,130 131,407 148,522 192,547 242,967 296,486
Vingroup JSC (VIC VN) Conglomerate
Progress and challenges

Investment points
(Maintain) BUY Overview: Vietnam General Trading JSC, founded in 2002, transformed into VinGroup JSC through merge of Vinpearl and Vincom in 2012. The company, listed on the Hochiminh
Stock Exchange (HOSE) in 2007, operates in various sectors, including property development, hospitality, healthcare, electric vehicle (EV) production…
Target price Challenges ahead in 2024: The year 2024 poses challenges for Vingroup, particularly in the EV production segment, which has yet to break even, especially with its plan to expand
55,500
(VND, 12M) production and sales to 50 markets. On the other hand, other key segments of Vingroup such as residential real estate and commercial leasing, according to our forecast, will
continue to grow. We forecast that Vingroup’s revenue will grow by approximately 15% in 2024.
Current price The industrial sector has made significant progress although there are still many difficulties
44,000
(1/02/24)
Vinfast saw strong growth in 3Q23 as it delivered more than 10,000 electric cars (3Q22: 150 cars) and 28,000 electric motorbikes (double YoY), marking the most successful quarter
ever since. In 9M23, Vinfast has delivered 21,300 electric cars (of which about 14,000 were sold to GSM, a taxi company related to Vingroup) and 48,100 electric motorbikes, bringing
Expected return 26% VND17.1tn in revenue (+94% YoY). Despite the success in sales, the segment reported a gross loss of VND12.5tn in 9M23, a slight improvement from the VND15.6tn loss in the same
period last year. The accumulated gross loss for this segment since 2019 has reached VND49.2tn.
According to VIC, the Vinfast factory in the US is waiting for a construction permit, and Vinfast is also planning to expand the factory to the Indian and Indonesian markets. The
expected total capex investment in the next six months is about USD1.5 – 2bn.
Financial strain: Total debt remained high at VND193.5tn (+58.2% YoY) in 3Q23, in which, short-term debt doubled from VND40tn to VND95tn. Outstanding bond was VND65.8tn (-
EPS Growth (24F, %) 20 16% YoY) in 3Q23, accounting for nearly 40% of total debt; about VND48tn of bonds will mature within 12 months. Increasing the proportion of short-term debt may put pressure
on the Vingroup’s cash flow in the future.
P/E (24F, x) 29.8
FY (31/12) 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Shares outstanding (mn) 3,814 OP (VNDbn) (3,344) 3,120 8,004 5,761 6,277 8,001
OP margin (%) (3.0)% 2.5% 7.9% 3.4% 3.2% 3.5%
Free float (%) 25.9
PBT (VNDbn) 13,943 3,146 12,756 7,060 7,542 9,598
NP (VNDbn) 5,465 (2,514) 8,782 4,528 5,452 8,900
52-week low (VND) 38,700 EPS (VND) 1,503 (685) 2,367 1,170 1,409 2,301
52-week high (VND) 76,600 ROE (%) 7.1 (2.8) 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.2%
P/E (x) 64.0 NA 22.7 35.9 29.8 18.3
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/B (x) 4.5 3.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1
Absolute 5.0 -16.9 -21.2 Total assets (VNDbn) 577,407 619,606 626,706 667,946
422,504 428,384
Relative 2.9 -15.0 -30.8
Equity (VNDbn) 135,853 159,572 135,655 134,291 139,246 142,001
Vingroup JSC (VIC VN)
Despite being new, the electric vehicle industry in Vietnam shows many opportunities. Long-term debt amount to be paid since 3Q23
However, it still needs the government's support to be competitive with foreign carmakers.
Bonds Syndicated Loans Bank Loans
80,000
70,000
60,000
Strength Weakness
• Energy efficient and low • High EV prices and battery 50,000
operating costs. replacement costs.
40,000
• Home charging is convenient. • Limited availability of charging
• Traffic pollution reduced. stations and long charging time. 30,000
• Reduce pressure on fossil energy • The production and disposal of
EV batteries have negative 20,000
sources.
environmental impacts. 10,000
0
Less than 1 year 1 - 3 years 3 - 5 years More than 5 years
Debt ratio (%)
Loans / Equity Total debts / Total Assets

Threats Opportunities
160%
• Competition from gasoline and • The electric vehicle market still
hybrid cars. has much room for development. 140%
• Potential increase in electricity • The government supports the EV
120%
prices alongside rising demand. industry.
• Strong support from the • Growing public awareness about 100%
government is needed for environmental concerns.
businesses to develop and be • Create more jobs and income for 80%
competitive workers
60%
40%
20%
0%
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F
Construction - Growth indicators intensify
• Over the last 10 years, the sector has grown in tandem — both upwards and downwards — with the economy, displaying a strong correlation with the economy. After a steep drop
Strongly correlated from 3Q22 to 1Q23, the sector quickly rebounded, as the economy began to recover from 2Q23, reaching 8% YoY growth in 3Q23. Vietnam set an economic growth target of 6–6.5%
with the economy for 2024. The construction sector is expected to expand alongside the growing economy. We expect growth of 8–10% for the sector in 2024.
• Numbers fell short of FY23 target, but disbursement amount grew. By end-November 2023, the Vietnamese government’s estimated disbursement was VND460,980bn, achieving
59% of its FY23 target (11M22: 52.4%). Compared with the Prime Minister’s goal, government disbursement reached 65.1% (11M22: 58.3%); of this, domestic disbursement reached
VND449,827bn and foreign disbursement reached VND11,153bn, achieving 60.2% and 38.4% of the FY23 target, respectively. Although the plan’s completion is behind schedule, the
absolute number is significantly larger than that of 2022, up from VND338,319bn to VND460,980bn (36.3% YoY). By end-October 2023, the estimated accumulated disbursement amount
of seven key national projects was VND59,799bn, achieving 66.7% of the FY23 plan.
• As the government has boosted the speed of disbursement since the start of the year, Vietnam has reached 59% of its FY plan within the first eleven months of the year for
the first time. We note that disbursement tends to pick up in the latter part of the year, coinciding with acceleration of sales at construction companies.
GDP growth & construction sector growth Disbursement of key national projects
GDP growth Sector growth FY23 Plan 10M23 Completion

50,000 90%
12.0% 10.8%
10.0% 45,000 80%
84%
10.0% 9.2% 9.1% 40,000
8.7% 70%
8.2% 8.0% 35,000 70%
8.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 67% 60%
6.7% 6.8% 6.8%
6.2% 30,000
5.9% 6.0% 8.0% 59% 58% 50%
VNDbn
5.4% 5.3% 55%
6.0% 5.3% 25,000
40%
20,000 44%
4.0% 3.3% 30%
2.9% 15,000
2.6%
10,000 20%
2.0%
0.6% 10%
5,000
0.0% - 0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3Q23 North-South North-South KH-BMT BH-VT CD-CT-ST Ring Road 4- Ring Road 3-
Expressway Expressway Expressway Expressway Expressway Hanoi HCM
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 1 Phase 1 Phase 1
Source: GSO, MOF, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Construction - Growth indicators intensify (cont’d.)
• Infrastructure mega-projects:
P/B ratios are at
• Vietnam expects that the North–South Expressway, with a total investment amount of ~VND200,000bn (~US$8.5bn) will be fully integrated by late-2025, transporting goods,
reasonable levels, services, and passengers through the North-South axis without interruption.
staying close to their • In addition, for the period of 2025–2030, Vietnam will prioritize investment in expressways for the East–West axis. Last June, the government began construction on three
mean expressways on this axis with total investment estimated at ~VND85,000bn (~US$3.6bn)
• In light of all the projects currently underway, we maintain our view that government spending in infrastructure will have a significant impact on economic growth and
fuel that growth over the next 3–5 years.
• Performances & valuations:
• As the industry has been recovering since 3Q23, some companies are on track to meet their FY23 plans, while others are unlikely to reach their targets. HHV, CTD, and DPG
are the most likely to fulfill their FY23 plans, in terms of both revenue and net profit.
• Because of the long rally since the beginning of the year, P/E ratios have remained on top of the band for most of companies. P/B ratios, on the other hand, are more
reasonable, with seven companies staying close to their mean.
Completion timeline for mega-projects P/B band valuation 2 within +/- 2 STDVs (5Y)
Components Date Value (VNDbn) Investment framework
3.5x
North–South Expressway-Phase 1 2017–2020 78,461 PPP,PI
3.0x
North–South Expressway-Phase 2 2021–2025 119,644 PI
Chau Doc-Can Tho-Soc Trang Expressway 2023–2026 44,700 PI 2.5x
Khanh Hoa-Buon Ma Thuot Expressway 2023–2026 21,935 PI 2.0x

Bien Hoa-Vung Tau Expressway 2023–2026 17,837 PI
1.5x
Dau Giay-Lien Khuong Expressway 2023–2025 36,585 PPP, PI
1.0x
Dong Dang-Tra Linh Expressway 2020–2025 22,691 PPP
Long Thanh International Airport (Phase 1) 2023–2026 35,233 PI 0.5x
Ring Road 3 HCMC 2023–2026 75,400 PI

0.0x
Ring Road 4 Hanoi 2023–2027 85,813 PI C4G CTD DPG FCN HHV LCG VCG
-0.5x
Source: MOT, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research, PPP: Public – Private Partnership, PI: Public Investment
Vietnam Construction and Import-Export JSC (VCG VN) Construction
Trade–off between growth and profit

Lam Tran, lam.td@miraeasset.com.vn
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY Overview: Founded in 1988, VCG officially transferred into a joint stock company in 2006. In 2008, its shares were traded on Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), followed by a listing on the
Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) in 2020. VCG operates in the construction of diverse projects, spanning civil, industrial, transport, irrigation, and hydropower sectors.
FY24 outlook & valuation: We expect a continued expansion in 2024 revenue, building upon the elevated base established in 2023. Of this, the construction segment will continue
Target price to dominate with a 30%-35% YoY growth, driven by a substantial increase in workload. Earnings, however, will be likely to decline due to a drop in revenue and gross profit
28,400
(VND, 12M) contribution from the RE segment. Other earnings will remain stable, given their relatively defensive nature (Hydropower, Water plant) and stable performance (Education). In
general, we forecast an 8.4% YoY growth in revenue but a significant reduction of 19.6% YoY in gross profit in 2024. Applying the P/E valuation with peers’ ratio, we maintain our
target price at VND28,494.
Current price
24,400 9M23 earnings results:
(1/02/24)
• VCG reported 9M23 revenue of VND8,915n (+33.1% YoY) and gross profit of VND875bn (+16.5% YoY). Gross profit rose thanks to a surge in revenue from the construction and real
estate segments. VCG reversed a provision of VND312bn in 9M23. As a result, management costs contributed VND49bn in income during 9M23, a significant contrast to the
Expected return 16% incurred costs of VND116bn during 9M22. Although revenue has enjoyed impressive growth, interest expenses continue to eat away at VCG’s profits, as total debt levels remain
high. Overall, NPATMI reported at VND231bn (-77.0% YoY) in 9M23. However, we note that VCG reported a one–off profit of VND662bn last year from revaluation.
• Construction: The segment continued to dominate the company’s growth, accounting for 60% of revenue, mostly infrastructure projects, including bridges and expressways.
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 215 However, 9M23 saw a deterioration in gross margin to 2.1% from 4.7% (YoY). With revenue increasing as gross margin shrinks, the company has made a trade-off between
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) NA growth and profit.
EPS Growth (24F, %) -59

• Real estate: The RE segment recorded growth in both revenue and gross profit, with revenue of VND1,938bn (+254% YoY) and gross profit of VND493bn (+511% YoY). Revenue
likely came from the handover of Green Diamond tower and several of the 99 villas in Cat Ba Amatina, although the company did not disclose details of revenue recognition.
P/E (24F, x) 55.9 • Manufacturing: Along with the currently-operating Ngoi Phat plant, we expect VCG’s two hydropower plants (Dakba) to generate stable income for the company.
Market cap (VND bn) 13,175 FY (31/12) 2020H 2021H 2022H 2023F 2024F 2025F
(%) VN nde VCG VN
Shares outstanding (mn) 534 1 0 Revenue (VNDbn) 5,551 5,749 8,453 14,059 15,242 17,038
GP (VNDbn) 836 829 917 1,562 1,256 1,464
Free float (%) 54.0 170
GP margin 15.1% 14.4% 10.8% 11.1% 8.2% 8.6%
Foreign ownership (%) 10.7 150
NP (VNDbn) 1,605 394 782 520 215 530
130
52-week low (VND) 10,000 EPS (VND) 3,667 950 1,607 1,067 441 772
110 ROE 23.0% 7.1% 10.7% 6.4% 3.7% 4.7%
0 P/E(x) 13.1 57.5 17.7x 23.1x 55.9x 31.9x
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/B (x) 2.9 3.4 2.0x 2.0x 2.2x 2.1x
70
Absolute 5.1 24.5 46.6 Total assets (VNDbn) 19,609 30,969 31,999 33,628 35,774 37,961
50
Relative 4.5 24.4 40.3 Dec 22 Feb 23 Apr 23 un 23 Aug 23 ct 23 Dec 23 Equity (VNDbn) 7,052 7,526 9,931 10,618 11,016 11,546
Dat Phuong Group JSC (DPG VN) Construction
Construction sector rebound

Lam Tran, lam.td@miraeasset.com.vn
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY Overview: Founded in 2002, DPG became a public company in 2007. In 2017, its shares were traded on UPCOM market, and listed on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) in 2018.
FY24 outlook: As the fourth quarter usually generates the highest quarterly output for Hydropower, we expect revenue from this sector to stabilize in 4Q23. In addition, workloads in
Target price the Construction segment enjoyed a robust upturn in 3Q23, which is a positive sign for upcoming quarters. For FY24, we project a positive revenue expansion of 13.1% YoY across its
44,700 three key segments: Construction and Energy (+10.0% each, YoY), and a rebound in the Real Estate segment (from VND30bn to VND130bn). As a result, our forecasted net earnings
(VND, 12M)
will see a strong rebound of VND273bn (+40.1% YoY), and EPS of VND4,328 in FY24.
Current price 9M23 earnings results:

39,000
(1/02/24)
• DPG reported 3Q23 revenue of VND867bn (-1.5% YoY) and gross profit of VND95bn (-51.3% YoY). As of 9M23, revenue and gross profit reached VND2,026bn (-8.9% YoY) and
VND367bn (-44.5% YoY), respectively. Despite the modest decrease in revenue, gross profit fell substantially, due to a steep contraction in the Energy sector. Conversely, the
Expected return 15% Construction sector exhibited an opposite result.
• Construction: In 3Q23, the sector returned strongly, posting increases of 35% and 29% in sales and gross profit, respectively, thanks to increasing workloads in infrastructure
projects. Moreover, gross margin rose more than 4%p, to 10.5% from 6.2% (YoY), thus contributing greatly to DPG’s profits. In 3Q23, DPG added several infrastructure projects,
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 273 including bridges and expressways.
• Energy: In contrast to 1Q and 2Q, outputs from the Hydropower sector fell sharply in 3Q, with revenue dropping to VND59bn from VND105bn (-43.8% YoY).
P/E (23F, x) 10.3
Market cap (VND bn) 2,457 FY (31/12) 2020H 2021H 2022H 2023F 2024F 2025F
(%) VN nde DPG VN
Shares outstanding (mn) 63 170 Revenue (VNDbn) 2,118 2,545 3,319 3,056 3,455 4,051
GP (VNDbn) 594 875 921 574 711 981
Free float (%) 50.7 150
GP margin 28.1% 34.4% 27.7% 18.8% 20.6% 23.5%
130 NP (VNDbn) 195 342 383 195 273 391
110
52-week high (VND) 47,800 ROE 17.9% 28.2% 26.0% 11.4% 14.4% 18.0%
0 P/E(x) 7.4 13.8 6.4x 14.5x 10.3x 7.2x
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/B (x) 1.4 3.5 1.5x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x
70
Absolute 1.8 20.7 32.2 Total assets (VNDbn) 4,820 5,951 6,139 6,571 6,979 7,655
Relative 1.2 20.6 25.9 50 Equity (VNDbn) 1,406 1,782 2,207 2,408 2,714 3,181
Dec 22 Feb 23 Apr 23 un 23 Aug 23 ct 23 Dec 23 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Steel – Growth prospects in both domestic and export markets
The global steel market's recovery has been slower than anticipated, primarily due to China's economic struggles and a housing oversupply situation in its real estate market.
Recovery in • Projected global steel sales volume in 2023 was only 1.72bn tons (+0.5% YoY), 3%p lower than expectations from the end of 2022. We see the main reason leading to lower growth in
Vietnam's steel steel consumption compared to with expectations mainly coming from the weakness of the Chinese real estate market, which is struggling with a housing oversupply status. China, a
major player in steel production, faced challenges as its output in 11M23 was 952mn tons, just a 1.5% YoY increase and 4%p lower than market forecasts. Among the top 10 steel
export market amid consumers and producers globally, only India demonstrated double-digit growth, with its domestic steel volume reaching 128mn tons in 11M23 (+12.1% YoY), driven by robust public
global challenges investment policies.
• In addition, the weakening of the world economy also calmed the demand for construction steel. Only the bearing steel market for automotive products continues to grow in value,
estimated to reach US$113bn (+5.5% YoY) in 2023 (according to Research & Market). We see a strong shift in global steel manufacturers in the world such as JFE, Posco, Arcelo, US Steel
etc. when manufacturers are suspending investment in construction steel product lines. Instead, they focused on high-strength steel lines, alleviating competitive pressure on
domestic construction steel manufacturers like HPG, NKG, and HSG.
Vietnam's steel export is taking advantage to fill in market demand
• Despite challenges in the domestic real estate market, Vietnam's steel industry experienced positive signs as it leveraged export markets and public investment projects.
• According to VSA, steel consumption output in 11M23 was 23.7mn tons (-5.6% YoY). However, based on data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's total steel export
volume was 9.14mn tons (+30.7% YoY) with export value was US$6.95bn, including non-VSA members. For VSA members, export sales output in 10M23 was 5.3mn tons (+26.1% YoY).
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) exports experienced substantial growth, reaching 2.83mn tons, a remarkable 300% YoY increase. In contrast, construction steel exports decreased by 27% YoY,
impacted by the ongoing decline in the Chinese real estate market, and the demand for imported steel billets from Vietnam also decreased in tandem.
HRC price gap between US and China 11M23 output of the 8 largest steel producing countries
USD/ton
Volume Volume
2500 80% Unit: Ton % YoY % YoY
%Gap China US November 2023 11M23
60%
2000 China 76.1 0.4% 952 1.5%
40% India 11.7 11.4% 128.2 12.1%
1500 20% Japan 7.1 -0.9% 80 -2.8%
1000 0% USA 6.6 6.11% 73.9 -0.5%
-20% Russia 6.4 12.5% 70.2 -6.4%

500
-40% Korea 5.4 11.9% 61.3 -1.1%
0 -60% Germany 2.7 -2.4% 32.8 -4%
Turkey 3 25.4% 30.5 -6.1%
Global 145.5 3.3% 1,715 +0.5%
Source: Worldsteel, Mirae Asset Research Vietnam
Steel – Growth prospects in both domestic and export markets (cont’d.)
Iron ore
Stability expected in
• According to Steel Radar data, the iron ore supply in 2023 will reach 2.2bn tons (flat YoY). Major iron ore-producing companies globally are not expected to significantly expand mines,
raw material maintaining a balance in iron ore prices. We project the iron ore exploitation volume of the world's three largest iron ore exporters, Tio Rio Tinto, Vale and FMG, to be 831mn tons (+2%
production costs as YoY) in 2023 and to grow at a 3% CAGR in the period of 2024 - 2027.
the decline in coke • In addition to supply control, the potential upward trend in iron ore prices is attributed to signals from the Chinese government aimed at stabilizing the real estate market. Currently,
iron ore prices have increased to US$130/ton and show no signs of decreasing. In 2024, we believe iron ore prices will trade in a wide range of US$120-150/ton.
prices will offset the
Coking coal
possibility of an
increase in iron ore • In contrast to the iron ore market, the coking coal market is expected to experience limited fluctuations as supply and demand find equilibrium and countries exhibit a trend of
reducing coal power mobilization. According to the IEA, global coal consumption is estimated to reach 8.5bn tons (+1.2% YoY) in 2023. However, global efforts to tighten environmental
prices standards in alignment with Climate Change Conference targets are anticipated to drive a 2% CAGR reduction in total global coal consumption from 2024 to 2027.
• The US and European markets are expected to continue to reduce coal mobilization consumption due to being heavily constrained by the cost of CO2 emissions. Estimates from Bank
of America (BoA) and IEA suggest an annual reduction in total coal consumption in the US and European markets by approximately 2-4%. Meanwhile, China is benefiting from cost-
effective coal purchased from Russia amid export sanctions. While supply seems to outstrip demand, we forecast that coking coal prices in 2024 will fluctuate around US$260–300/ton
(-10% YoY).
Iron ore and coking coal prices at Newcastle Australia port in the period of 2019 - 2023 (FOB prices)
USD/ton USD/ton
Iron Ore (LHS) Coking Coal (RHS)
250 700
600
200
500
150 400
100 300
200
50
100
0 -
1/2/2018 6/2/2018 11/2/2018 4/2/2019 9/2/2019 2/2/2020 7/2/2020 12/2/2020 5/2/2021 10/2/2021 3/2/2022 8/2/2022 1/2/2023 6/2/2023 11/2/2023
Source: Research & Market, Worldsteel, OICA, Mirae Asset Research Vietnam
Steel – Growth prospects in both domestic and export markets (cont’d.)
• Public investment will play a supporting role for the steel industry before the residential real estate market recovers. Vietnam remains committed to fostering investment in
Growth prospects in infrastructure, directly impacting construction steel manufacturing enterprises such as HPG. Steel cost in projects like highways, airports, and seaports can constitute approximately
both domestic and 10% of direct material cost.
export markets • For the prospects of Vietnam's steel industry in the period of 2024 - 2025, we make a Positive rating based on: 1) Continued benefits in markets where Russia and Ukraine have
reduced output, especially in Europe; (2) Reduced competitive pressure as major global steel companies halt expansions in basic steel lines like rebar or box steel, (3) Sustained growth
in public investment, and (4) Gradual warming up of the domestic real estate market.
• We forecast that the total sales volume of the steel industry in 2023F / 2024F / 2025F to be 26mn tons (-4.4% YoY) / 27.95mn tons (+7.1% YoY) / 29.9mn tons (+7% YoY), respectively. Of
which, the export market is estimated to reach 7.91mn tons (+26% YoY) in 2023, driven by significant growth in HRC sales, and we forecast that export steel volume will maintain a
growth of 12% in 2024. 2023F domestic steel output is estimated to reach 18.18mn tons (-13.5% YoY) due to the impact of the real estate market. However, recovery is expected from
2024F, with projected sales volume reaching 19mn tons (+5% YoY).
Vietnam’s steel export market structure in 2022 and 9M23 Vietnam's domestic and export steel sales volume in the period of 2018 - 2025F
ASEAN
23%
12% EU
31.8%
China
6%
42%
USA
6.5% 8%
Korea
11% Japan
Inner circle 2022
9.6% 17% India
/ Outer circle 9M23
24.3%
Others
Source: VSA, Mirae Asset Research Vietnam
Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG VN) Steel
Initiating a new cycle

Thien Nguyen, thien.nd@miraeasset.com.vn
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY Overview: Hoa Phat Group, initially established as a construction machine and equipment trading company in 1992, has undergone gradual expansion across various sectors,
including furniture, steel pipe, steel, refrigeration, real estate, and agriculture. The company has been listed on the HOSE since 2007.
Profit recovery to continue in the period of 2024 – 2025.
Target price
31,500 In 2024, the real estate market is poised for gradual recovery, buoyed by completed legal frameworks. Coupled with intensified public investment efforts, this positive trend is
(VND, 12M)
expected to translate into a resurgence in steel output across various segments. CBRE's report indicates an anticipated improvement in apartment supply in 2024, with 20,000
apartments in Hanoi and 12,000 units in HCMC.
Current price We forecast that the volume of construction steel in 2023F / 2024F / 2025F will be 3.6mn tons (-15% YoY) / 4mn tons (+11% YoY) / 4.35mn tons (+8% YoY), respectively.
27,450
(1/02/24) Corresponding revenue forecasts for construction steel are VND54,858bn (-25.3% YoY) / VND62,102bn (+13.2% YoY) / VND68,377bn (+10% YoY) in 2023F / 2024F / 2025F. The HRC
segment emerges as a vital support pillar, compensating for subdued demand in domestic steel pipe and galvanized steel pipe sectors in 2023. Projected outputs for HRC in 2023F /
2024F are 2.7mn tons (+4% CK) and 2.89mn tons (+6% CK), respectively.
Expected return 15%
We project total revenue of HPG in 2023F / 2024F to be VND119,853bn (-16.1% YoY) and VND135,873bn (+13.4% YoY), respectively. Stable material prices in 2024 are expected to
bolster HPG's gross profit margin by 2.7%p. Therefore, our forecast for NPAT in 2023F and 2024F will reach VND6,597bn (-22% YoY) and VND11,703bn (+77.4% YoY), respectively.
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 11,704 Profits maintained recovery momentum for three consecutive quarters (QoQ). In 3Q23, despite a decline in revenue (-16% YoY) due to weak domestic construction demand,
profit after tax reached VND2,000bn (3Q22: loss of VND1,786bn). Revenue in 9M23 reached VND85,430bn (-27% YoY). 9M23 NPAT recorded VND3,830bn (-63% YoY), yet showing
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) NA resilience and maintaining a recovery trend for three consecutive quarters (QoQ). In 11M23, according to HPG, total sales output was 5.96mn tons (-10% YoY). Of which,
construction steel output in 11M23 was 3.3mn tons (-15% YoY) due to the impact of the sluggish civil real estate market. However, exported HRC output has reached 1.06mn tons
(11M22: 71,452 tons), helping HPG maintain over 90% utilization for blast furnaces 3 & 4 in Dung Quat Complex.
P/E (23F, x) 13.9
FY (31/12) 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Market cap (VND bn) 159,616
Revenue (VNDbn) 90,119 149,680 141,409 119,854 135,873 149,990
Shares outstanding (mn) 5,815 OP (VNDbn) 17,120 37,669 13,078 10,787 16,169 22,199
Free float (%) 46.1 OP margin (%) 19.0% 25.2% 9.2% 9.0% 11.9% 14.8%
EBITDA (VNDbn) 21,919 43,745 19,850 18,032 23,997 31,899
NPATMI (VNDbn) 13,504 34,521 8,444 6,597 11,704 15,873
52-week high (VND) 29,400 ROE (%) 22.9% 38.1% 8.8% 6.5% 10.3% 12.3%
P/E (x) 10.2x 7.9x 12.3x 24.6x 13.9x 11.6x
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/B (x) 1.7x 2.3x 1.1x 1.8x 1.6x 1.4x
Absolute 2.0 1.7 52.5
Relative -0.6 1.2 40.1
Equity (VNDbn) 59,220 90,781 96,113 102,288 113,661 128,844
Nam Kim Steel JSC (NKG VN) Steel
Restart the major project

Investment points
(Maintain) BUY Overview: Established in 2002 and subsequently going public in 2010, NKG’s shares were listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) in 2011. Specializing in processing,
manufacturing, and trading of corrugated iron products, galvanized steel, and steel pipes, NKG urrently has a capacity of about 1.2mn tons.
Target price A 2.5x YoY expected net profit in 2024

29,300
(VND, 12M) In 2023, NKG took advantage of the gap in the European and US markets, which had supply disruptions due to high production costs as well as the loss of output supply from
Russia and Ukraine. This move led to a boost in sales volume, with galvanized steel sheets reaching an estimated 713,689 tons (+4% YoY). On the contrary, the steel pipe segment,
Current price which depends heavily on the domestic market, will continue to decline to 140,513 tons (-18% YoY). We estimate that NKG's total revenue and NPAT in 2023 to be VND19,476bn (-
23,750
(1/02/24) 15.5% YoY) and VND246bn (2022: a loss of VND125bn), respectively.
In 2024, we expect that inflation has peaked, and the resurgence of public investment demand will fuel consumption, particularly in European, Indian, and North American
markets. We forecast that the sales of galvanized steel sheets and steel pipes in 2024 will reach 792,025 tons (+11% YoY) and 147,539 tons (+5% YoY), respectively. Projected net
Expected return 23%
revenue and NPAT in 2024 are VND22,076bn (+13.3% YoY) and VND631bn (+156.5% YoY), respectively.
Nam Kim restarts the project “Nam Kim Phu My” with a total investment of VND4,500bn, doubling its capacity to 2.4mn tons by 2027. In particular, the focus of the Phu My factory
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 632 will be on new products, particularly galvanized steel for household electrical appliances, requiring advanced production techniques. While not included in the current forecast due
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) NA to potential changes in time and investment plans, this project holds significant potential for future growth.
EPS Growth (24F, %) 157 Being profitable again: In 3Q23, net revenue saw a marginal decrease to VND4,262bn (-4% YoY), with a net profit of VND24bn (3Q22: a loss of VND420bn). The 9M23 financials
reported revenue and net profit of VND14,155bn (-24.7% YoY) and VND109.7bn (-62% YoY) respectively. Galvanized steel output in 9M23 remained flat YoY at 543,317 tons, with
P/E (23F, x) 10.2 coated steel exports constituting the majority at 71% of the total sales volume in 9M23 (75% in 9M22).
Shares outstanding (mn) 263 Revenue (VNDbn) 11,560 28,173 23,071 19,476 22,076 24,219
OP (VNDbn) 509 2,739 154 526 883 1,066
Free float (%) 59.3
OP margin (%) 4.4% 9.7% 0.7% 2.7% 4.0% 4.4%
Foreign ownership (%) 16.1 EBITDA (VNDbn) 886 3,118 532 846 1,144 1,379
52-week low (VND) 12,350 NPATMI (VNDbn) 295 2,226 -125 246 632 718
EPS (VND) 1,121 8,453 -474 935 2,399 2,726
ROE (%) 9.3% 38.9% -2.3% 4.5% 10.4% 10.7%
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 8.3x 3.8x -25.7x 26.3x 10.2x 10.7x
Absolute 3.7 35.7 93.9 P/B (x) 0.9x 1.5x 0.6x 1.5x 1.3x 1.2x
1.0 35.2 81.5
Equity (VNDbn) 3,181 5,723 5,378 5,529 6,082 6,721
Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN) F&B
Weak consumption hampers growth prospects

Chau Bui, chau.bn@miraeasset.com.vn
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY Viet Nam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN) is the leading dairy corporation in Vietnam, and boasts the largest domestic market share in the liquid milk segment and second largest
market share in the formula milk segment. VNM currently operates 15 farms in the Indochina region and is a major buyer of fresh milk from farmers, with total cows of nearly
150,000. VNM also has a wide distribution system, with over 300,000 points of sale throughout the country, providing it with a solid competitive advantage over peers. In addition,
Target price VNM’s recent moves to penetrate abroad markets via M&A deals and joint venture has positive signals. We believe that VNM is a worthy investment, as the dominant corporation
77,000 in Vietnam dairy market.
(VND, 12M)
Rebranding: According to the company, the packaging change began in August. VNM expects the rebranding initiative to have a more meaningful impact from 4Q23. The
packaging revamp breathed fresh air into consumer perception, encouraging upselling by POS partners and boosting salesforce performance.
Current price
68,300 2023 & 2024 forecast: For 2023, amid recent slowdown in FMCG and dairy sectors and the rebranding are still in process, we lower our revenue forecast to VND60,970bn (+1.5%
(1/02/24)
YoY) (prior: VND62,265bn). In turn, we lower our 2023F forecast NPATMI to VND8,880bn (+4.3% YoY) (prior: VND9,452bn). In 2024, for the base case scenario, we believe domestic
consumption will be sluggish, as export-oriented workers, a major group of consumers, may need time for income recovery. Thus, the likelihood of growth in sales volume is low
Expected return 13% and should be flat YoY (9M23 domestic dairy consumption of -0.5% YoY, according to AC Nielsen). On the other hand, we expect VNM’s general sales price to increase around 2%,
due to its branding power and current lower price level versus peers. Thus, we forecast VNM’s 2024 revenue at VND62,189bn (+2% YoY). Meanwhile, we assume milk power and
fresh milk input prices of US$2,700/MT and VND12,000/kg, respectively. This will enable gross margin to grow and 2024F gross profit to reach VND25,117bn (+3.9% YoY). In turn, we
forecast 2024F operating profit and NPATMI at VND11,461bn (+4.7% YoY) and VND9,304bn (+4.7% YoY), respectively.
Valuation: We had some major updates for our VNM model. Using the discounted free cashflow to the firm (FCFF) method with some key assumptions: 1) a WACC of 11%; 2)
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) N/A terminal growth rate after 2033 at 3% (prior: 2% from 2027). We lowered our NPATMI forecast for FY24–FY25 by 12% on average, compared with the previous one. Thus, we lower
EPS Growth (24F, %) 4.8 our target price for VNM to VND77,000 (prior: VND81,800) and downgrade our rating to Trading Buy (from Buy).
Key risks: We believe the key risks to our rating and valuation include: 1) the drop in Vietnam milk import tariffs to zero from FY18, increasing domestic competition; 2) changes in
P/E (24F, x) 17
input prices; and 3) changes in VNM’s M&A, investment plans.
Market cap (VND bn) 144,207 (%) VN nde VNM VN FY (31/12) 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Shares outstanding (mn) 2,090 130 Revenue (VNDbn) 59,723 61,012 60,075 60,970 62,189 63,433
OP (VNDbn) 13,539 12,728 10,491 10,939 11,461 12,144
Free float (%) 35.2 110 OP margin (%) 22.7 20.9 17.5 17.9 18.4 19.1
Foreign ownership (%) 54.5 Pre-tax income (VNDbn) 13,519 12,922 10,496 10,939 11,461 12,144
0
52-week low (VND) 65,500 NPATMI (VNDbn) 11,099 10,532 8,516 8,880 9,304 9,859
70 EPS (VND) 4,770 4,517 3,632 3,824 4,007 4,245

ROE (%) 35.5 30.6 25.0 27.0 27.5 28.0
(%) 1M 6M 12M 50 P/E (x) 33.9 29.3 24.1 17.8 17.0 16.3
Absolute -0.9 2.8 -13.8 P/B (x) 3.5 4.5 3.8 4.7 4.6 4.4
30
-2.9 2.2 -20.7 Dec 22 Feb 23 Apr 23 un 23 Aug 23 ct 23 Dec 23
Equity (VNDbn) 33,647 35,850 32,817 33,584 34,737 36,394
Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN)
Milk powder price VNM’s yearly revenue growth vs. GDP VNM’s profit margins
(US$/MT) (%) (%)

Revenue GDP GM OPM NM
3,000 10
50
2,900
2,800 8
2,700 40
6
2,600
2,500 4 30
2,400
2
2,300 20
2,200 0
2,100 10
2,000 -2
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
-4 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
VNM’s CFO, CAPEX & Dividend VNM’s Dupont analysis VNM’s cows & fresh milk input volume
(VNDbn) ROE NI margin (Ton) (Cows)

CFO CAPEX Dividend (x) Fresh milk input volume Cow herd
(%)
Assset turnover Financial leverage
15,000 410,000 180,000
40 1.6
400,000 160,000
10,000 35 1.4
390,000 140,000
30 1.2
120,000
5,000 25 1 380,000
100,000
20 0.8 370,000
0 80,000
15 0.6 360,000
60,000
10 0.4 350,000 40,000
-5,000
5 0.2 340,000 20,000
-10,000 0 0 330,000 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
Source: Global Dairy Trade, Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Pharmaceuticals – Moving to higher quality
• Population trends: During the 2009-2019 period, Vietnam’s population increased at CAGR of 1.14%. The elderly population experienced a more significant annual increase of 4.35%,
Legal reforms for adding 400,000 elderly individuals each year. During the 2019-2021 period, the elderly demographic saw an average annual rise of 600,000. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s birth rate in 2021 was
15,863 births per 10,000 people (-2.22% YoY). As a result, Vietnam is expected to move from an "ageing" society to an "old" society by 2036.
industry growth
• Only 8% of pharmaceutical factories meet group 1&2 bidding standards: Currently, Vietnam has more than 250 drug factories, with 228 factories meet WHO-GMP standards or
higher. However, only 16 companies comply with EU/GMP or PIC/S-GMP standards. Moreover, the number of pharmaceutical companies engaging in the research of specialized drugs
remains limited.
• The pharmaceutical industry is poised to maintain a CAGR of 6% in the period of 2023 – 2028:
• Pharmaceutical spending per capita in Vietnam surged from an estimated US$5.4 in 2000 to US$63.5 in 2020. However, the period of 2020-2022 experienced market
congestion due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic and changes in pharmaceutical policies. We estimate pharmaceutical spending per capita in 2022 at US$66.
• Major changes in disease patterns and the rapid expansion of the middle class are expected to drive the pharmaceutical growth at a CAGR of 6% in the period of 2023 - 2028.
• Vietnam pharmaceutical industry value is forecasted at US$7.24bn (+3.4% YoY) in 2023 and US$7.89bn (+9.1% YoY) in 2024. In particular, the ETC channel is expected to grow
stronger than OTC channel thanks to health insurance coverage reaching 93% of the population. The value of ETC segment in 2023F/2024F is estimated at US$5.48bn (+3.5%
YoY) and US$6bn (+9.4% YoY), respectively.
• Legal reforms for industry growth: From the beginning of 2023, new legal documents, including Resolution No. 80/2023/QH15, Decree No. 07/2023/ND-CP, Resolution No. 30/NQ-CP,
and Circular No. 06/2023/TT-BYT, have been released. Decision No. 1165/QD-TTg issued in October 2023 sets the goal of achieving self-sufficiency in domestic generics drugs. These
legal improvements are expected to foster growth within the pharmaceutical industry.
Forecast pharmaceutical spending per capita in the period 2000 - 2028F Pharmaceutical spending per capita by countries in 2022
120 Recover after Covid and 30% 300 US$/capita

moving to higher quality
100 25% 242
250
Growth rate decelerated
Estimated global average spending on medicine (excluding US): US$188/capita 210
80 due to Covid-19 pandemic 20% 200
60 15% 150
40 10% 100
66 155
44
20 5% 50 27
0 0% 0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23F24F25F26F27F28F
Pharmaceutical Spending (LHS) Growth rate % (RSH)
Source: IQVIA, Fitch Solutions, GSO, MoH, PwC, EEUA, Mirae Asset Research Vietnam
Pharmaceuticals – Moving to higher quality (cont’d.)
Comparison pharmaceutical auction results between 2022 & 9M23 by types Forecast pharmaceutical spending by sector in the period 2015 - 2025F
5.5% ETC (LHS) OTC (LHS) ETC Growth (RHS) OTC growth (RHS)
7,000 25.0%
16.2% 5.8%
21.8% Brand name 6,000 20.0%
16.7%
31.6% Group 1 5,000
15.0%
3.0% Group 2 4,000
4.3%
Group 3 10.0%
3,000
Group 4 5.0%
13.0% 15.9% 2,000
Group 5
36.1% 0.0%
1,000
USDbn
- -5.0%
30.6% Inner circle 2022 / Outer circle 9M23 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Auction result of some domestic listed company in 2022 Auction result of some domestic listed company in 9M23
Tenamyd Tenamyd
CDP CDP
Savipharm Savipharm
DBD DBD
IMP IMP
VNDbn
PME PME VNDbn
0 500 1,000 1,500 - 200 400 600 800 1,000
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5
75 | Vietnam macro and stock market Source: DAV, GSO, MoH, IQVIA, Fitch Solutions, Mirae Asset Research Vietnam Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research
DHG Pharmaceutical JSC (DHG VN) Pharmaceutical
Investment for growth

Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY Overview: Established in 1974 as the 2/9 Pharmaceutical State-owned Enterprise under the Southwest Health Department, Hau Giang Pharmaceutical JSC underwent equitization
in 2004. The company's shares were listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) in 2006.
The new Japan-GMP factory in 4Q24 for long-term growth
Target price
130,500 Over 100 products, out of DHG's extensive portfolio of more than 300 drugs, are currently manufactured on Japan-GMP production lines. During 1H22 – 4Q24, DHG continues to
(VND, 12M)
invest in the Japan-GMP factory with a total investment of nearly VND700bn for a capacity of one billion tablets/year (~25% of existing capacity). This investment will be a key driver
for DHG's growth post-2025.
Current price However, in 2023-2024, we believe that DHG net revenue will be difficult to grow strongly because the existing factory has reached over 90% capacity and the expansion trend of
110,000
(1/02/24) the ETC channel. In terms of consumer choice, it is likely that greater focus on quality of care (prescription drugs) and utilization of health insurance in a difficult economic climate
will continue. We forecast net revenue in 2023F/2024F at VND4,859bn (+3.9% YoY)/VND5,192bn (+6.8% YoY), respectively. DHG’s net profit forecast in 2023F/2024F will reach
VND1,031bn (+4.3% YoY)/VND1,080bn (+4.8% YoY), respectively.
Expected return 19%
The shift in product lines from OTC to ETC affected revenue growth
In 9M23, DHG experienced slowed growth post-Covid-19 with a decline in demand for pain relievers (accounting for 23% of DHG's revenue). We estimate that DHG's revenue from
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 1,081 the fever and pain reliever segment in 2023F will reach VND1,069bn (-5.9% YoY). On the contrary, after Covid-19, demand of anti-biotics grew significantly and thanks to sustainable
supply chain, DHG took advantage and increased about 2% market share in antibiotic segment. The growth in the antibiotic segment, including Klamentin and Haginat products, is
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) NA expected to be a primary driver for DHG in 2024-2025. Antibiotic revenue is forecast to reach VND1,603bn (+7.2% YoY) in 2023.
EPS Growth (24F, %) 4.8 In 9M23, net revenue and net profit of DHG reached VND3,480bn (+4% YoY) and VND790bn (+5% YoY), respectively. The OTC channel, accounting for 87% of DHG's pharmaceutical
revenue, faced significant competitive pressure amid economic slowdown conditions. 9M23 discount rate was 2%p YoY higher.
P/E (24F, x) 12
FY (31/12) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23F FY24F
Shares outstanding (mn) 131 OP (VNDbn) 691 809 861 1,076 1,096 1,169
OP margin (%) 17.7% 21.5% 21.5% 23.0% 22.5% 22.5%
Free float (%)
PBT (VNDbn) 713 821 864 1,100 1,160 1,228
NP (VNDbn) 631 739 776 988 1,031 1,081
52-week high (VND) 140,000 ROE (%) 16.2% 19.7% 19.4% 21.1% 21.2% 20.8%
P/E (x) 18.4x 16.2x 16.3x 11.2x 12.6x 12.0x
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/B (x) 2.5x 3.0x 3.0x 2.3x 3.2x 2.9x
Absolute 6.4 -16.0 29.6
Relative 3.7 -16.5 17.2
Equity (VNDbn) 3,378 3,568 3,793 4,292 4,781 5,338
Imexpharm Corporation (IMP VN) Pharmaceutical
Sustaining robust performance

Investment points
(Maintain) BUY Overview: Established in 1983 as Dong Thap Pharmaceutical Enterprises under the Dong Thap Health Department, the company underwent a transformation in 2001, evolving into
Imexpharm Pharmaceutical JSC. In 2006, its shares were listed on HOSE.
EU-GMP factories pave the way for long-term growth in the ETC channel
Target price
72,300
(VND, 12M) Currently, IMP has 11 drug production lines meeting EU-GMP standards, which positions among the top 8% of domestic drug manufacturers meeting the bidding standards for
groups 1&2 in the Vietnam’s ETC channel. In the context of Circular 15/2019/TT-BYT prioritizing the use of high-quality domestic drugs, we highly appreciate the room for IMP
growth in both revenue and profit in the period of 2023 - 2028. Especially, with the participation of major shareholder SK Investment Vina III Pte Ltd, we anticipate substantial
Current price
57,000 support for IMP's drug R&D process, facilitating advancements in infusion and pill product lines.
(1/02/24)
According to the Vietnam Drug Administration, the winning result of IMP's ETC channel in 9M23 reached VND845bn, nearly equivalent to the whole year 2022 result of VND894bn.
This was also the first time that IMP's winning bid surpassed Tenamyd’s result, and we anticipate this positive trend to persist following the EU-GMP certification of IMP 4 factory in
Expected return 27% November 2022. We forecast ETC revenue in 2023F/2024F to reach VND823bn (+37% YoY) and VND968bn (+17.5% YoY), respectively.
On the contrary, we project a slower growth rate for OTC revenue due to market competition. Forecast revenue of OTC segment in 2023F/2024F reach VND1,137bn (+10% YoY) and
VND1,232bn (+8.3% YoY), respectively. Based on the assumption of maintaining robust growth in the ETC segment, we forecast that MP’s net profit in 2023F/2024F will reach
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 390 VND325bn (+45.6% YoY) and VND389bn (+20% YoY), respectively.
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) NA 9M23 sustaining growths: In 9M23, IMP's net revenue and pre-tax profit continued to maintain strong growth, reaching VND1,385bn (+27.6% YoY) and VND285.8bn (+44.7% YoY),
respectively. IMP's most outstanding point has lied in the increase in ETC channel revenue since 2018 (the proportion of ETC revenue contribution of 19% in 2018 to 36.7% in 2022).
This enhanced EBIT margins over the past three years (9M23: 19.8%, 9M22: 18.5%, 9M21: 17.4%).
P/E (24F, x) 10.2
FY (31/12) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23F FY24F
Shares outstanding (mn) 70 OP (VNDbn) 203 263 234 297 397 480
OP margin (%) 14.5% 19.2% 18.5% 18.0% 20.2% 21.8%
Free float (%)
PBT (VNDbn) 202 255 239 291 407 488
NP (VNDbn) 162 210 189 224 325 390
52-week high (VND) 71,429 ROE (%) 11.6% 15.3% 14.9% 13.6% 16.6% 17.7%
P/E (x) 16.6x 17.8x 25.1x 16.8x 12.3x 10.2x
(%) 1M 6M 12M
P/B (x) 2.4x 2.3x 2.8x 2.1x 2.4x 2.1x
Absolute 4.0 -4.2 -0.6
Relative 1.3 -4.7 -13.0
Equity (VNDbn) 1,559 1,730 1,794 1,894 2,151 2,398
Textile – Gradual improvement
• Exports gradually recovered and garment market share improved: Despite facing challenges amid international uncertainties, the Vietnam Textile industry continued its recovery
Continued recovering trend, especially in fiber segment. Updated to November 15, 2023, YTD fiber export value reached US$3.8bn (-9.8% YoY, 10M23: -10.8% YoY) while garment export value seemed to
weaken, reaching US$28.9bn (-12.7% YoY; 10M23: -12.4% YoY). Update to end-October, in the US and South Korea, Vietnam’s market share improved to 18.1% (7M23: 17.4%) and 29.9%
(7M23: 28.3%), respectively. Notably, China’s share in these two markets continued to fall, while rivals like Bangladesh, Indonesia, and India are taking bigger pieces of the pie.
Meanwhile, Vietnam’s market share in Japan continued increasing to 16.4% (7M23: 16.2%).
• Fiber exports to China improved: In 11M23, Vietnam’s fiber export value to China reached US$2.1bn (+5.0% YoY; 9M23: flat YoY), accounting for 53.8% of Vietnam’s total fiber exports.
China’s textiles experienced recovery trend since mid-2023, with textile manufacturing volume by end-September increased by a modest 0.8% YoY (July: -0.4% YoY). Also, Vietnam’s
fiber exports to South Korea narrowed the decline to -20.2% YoY (10M23: -24.2% YoY), reaching US$284.1mn.
• Textile and garment production activities continued to recover: Domestic textile production continued to recover in 11M23, particularly in weaving activities. The IIP of the
weaving segment in 11M23 increased 5.9% YoY, while the IIP of the garment segment also narrowed its decline, with -1.3% YoY growth (10M23: -1.3% YoY, 7M23: -5.5% YoY). In
addition, the weaving labor employment index recorded 12.1% YoY growth at the beginning of November 2023.
• Economies continue to grow: According to WB, the 2023 real GDP forecast of Vietnam’s key markets continued to grow: The US (+1.1%); EU (+0.4%); Japan (+0.8%); and China (+5.6%).
Continued growth in these economies should lead to recovery in income and demand in these markets.
• Key brand inventories and sales: At end-3Q23, the inventory-to-sale ratios of key brands like Nike, Inditex, GAP, H&M, and Puma remained at low levels, while sales showed signs of
increasing amid the upcoming holidays. Positive signals in sales should lead to increases in 2024 orders.
Rating & target price of coverage companies
Mkt. cap Market price Target price

Name Ticker Rating Upside (%) FY23F P/E FY24F P/E
(VND bn) (December 8, 2023) (VND)
TNG Investment and Trading JSC TNG VN 2,168 19,000 18,800 Hold -1.1 9.1 6.3
Song Hong Garment JSC MSH VN 2,816 37,550 38,000 Hold +1.2 12.0 8.4
Vietnam National Textile & Garment Group VGT VN 5,950 11,900 11,700 Hold -1.6 85.7 13.7
Binh Thanh Import - Export Production & Trade JSC GIL VN 1,862 26,600 27,500 Hold +3.4 NA 40.7
Century Synthetic Fiber Corporation STK VN 2,456 26,300 32,500 Buy +23.6 25.5 12.9
2023 & 2024 forecast of coverage companies
2023 forecast Consensus 2023 Guidelines 2024 forecast %YoY

9M22 NPAT 9M23 NPAT
Name Ticker % YoY Revenue NPAT Revenue NPAT Revenue NPAT Revenue NPAT
(VND bn) (VND bn) Revenue NPAT
(VND bn) (VND bn) (VND bn) (VND bn) (VND bn) (VND bn) (VND bn) (VND bn)
TNG Investment and Trading JSC TNG VN 231.4 170.9 -26.1 6,936 217.2 6,745 240 6,800 299 7,004.7 341.3 +3.0 +57.3
Song Hong Garment JSC MSH VN 280.1 163.9 -41.5 4,471 221.3 4,938 270 4,800 290.5* 4,600 314.2 +2.9 +41.9
Vietnam National Textile & Garment Group VGT VN 1,074.5 197.8 -83.6 16,549 221.7 NA NA 17,500 536.8* 18,204 694.2 +10.0 +526.3
Binh Thanh Import - Export Production & Trade JSC GIL VN 351.5 -63.6 NA 948 -54.5 NA NA 1,500 103.5 1,264 51.9 +33.3 NA
Century Synthetic Fiber Corporation STK VN 197.5 55.7 -71.8 1,631 90.6 1,681 137 2,149.3 253.1 2,705 179.4 +65.8 +98
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research (*VGT targets 2023 pre-tax profits of VND610bn, *MSH targets 2023 pre-tax profits of VND350bn)
Century Synthetic Fiber Corporation (STK VN) Fiber
Overcoming adversity
Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
▪ Investment thesis: Century Synthetic Fiber Corp (STK VN) is a textile company that concentrates on polyester filament products. The company’s main products are virgin and
recycled DTY, FDY, and POY. STK currently operates two spinning factories, located in HCMC and Dong Nai province, with a total capacity of 63,000 tons/annum. Moreover, STK
Target price is the only company in the ASEAN area that enjoys strategic cooperation with Unifi Inc. to develop high-value and recycled filaments. As recycled and man-made filaments are
32,500 becoming increasingly popular in the textile world, we believe STK is on the right path to success.
(VND, 12M)
▪ 2024 forecast: In 2024, we believe that new fiber products should become the key driver for STK’s revenue growth. The Unitex Phase 1 project, which is slated for completion in
Current price 1Q24 and to become operational from 2Q24, should add about 18,000 tons of high-value fiber to STK’s total output (about 50% of Unitex Phase 1’s maximum capacity).
25,700
(1/02/24) However, we forecast a potential sluggishness in the recovery of current fiber products, attributed to geopolitical uncertainties and low level of household savings in the US. In
all, we expect 2024 revenue to increase significantly to VND2,704.8bn (+65.8% YoY). 2024 gross margin should be higher thanks to new products, at 14.7% (2023F: 12.8%). In
addition, a new factory will result in higher SG&A with an estimated surge of 86.6% to VND121.7bn in 2024. As a result, our 2024F operating profits and NPATMI are at
Expected return 26% VND199.4bn (+98% YoY) and VND179.4bn (+98% YoY), respectively.
▪ Valuation: Thanks to the Unitex project, we believe STK has good growth potential, especially in recycled and high-value fiber products. Thus, we applied the free cash flow to
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 179 the firm (FCFF) method to value STK stock at VND32,500.
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) NA ▪ Key risks: A possible increase in the requirement on importing scrap and recycled plastic by Vietnam’s government; VND/US$ ratio fluctuations; Oil and PET price fluctuations,
Textile and garment demand in key export markets are the key risks to our rating and valuation.
P/E (24F, x) 13.9
Market cap (VND bn) 2,475 (%) VN nde STK VN FY (31/12) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23F FY24F FY25F
94
OP (VNDbn) 164 285 271 101 199 255
Free float (%) 150
58.9
OP margin (%) 9.3 14.0 12.8 6.2 7.4 9.2
130
Foreign ownership (%) NA Pre-tax income (VNDbn) 164 286 269 101 199 255
110 NPATMI (VNDbn) 144 278 242 91 179 230
52-week low (VND) 20,478
0 EPS (VND) 2,091 4,084 3,341 963 1,907 2,442
70 ROE (%) 13.3 23.8 17.3 5.9 11.7 14.4
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 10.0 13.9 9.1 27.5 13.9 10.1
50
Absolute -4.5 4.3 17.2 P/B (x) 1.3 3.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
30
-6.6 3.7 10.3 Dec 22 Feb 23 Apr 23 un 23 Aug 23 ct 23 Dec 23
Equity (VNDbn) 1,083 1,259 1,541 1,509 1,547 1,636
Aviation – International travelers spearhead growth
New law attracts • New visa policy creates conditions for international tourism to return to Vietnam. To help tourism rebound and boost socio-economic development, the Vietnamese National Assembly
officially adopted Law No.23/2023/QH15 amending some Articles of Law on Entry, Exit, Transit and Residence of Foreigners in Vietnam, effected from 15 August 2023. The amendments
international visitors significantly expand the e-visa availability and length of stay, allow for multiple entries, and extend the period for visa-exemptions. For instance, the visa period has been extended
from 30 to 90 days, and for countries unilaterally exempting visas, the validity of temporary residence has been prolonged from 15 to 45 days. These changes have resulted in a
significant increase of tourists since September 2023, coinciding with the peak tourist season. The number of international visitors from August 15, 2023 to the end of November 2023
was about 5.6mn people (+180% YoY). For 11M23, the General Department of Tourism reports 11.2mn international visitors to Vietnam (+380% YoY; equivalent to 68.9% of the 2019
figure). We estimate the number of international tourists coming to Vietnam in 2023 will reach 13mn visitors and reach 17mn visitors in 2024.
• In addition, the aviation market has benefited from a sharp decrease in the price of aviation fuels, plummeting to US$105/bbl (-24% YoY). We forecast that the number of international
passengers flying through Vietnam airports in the period of 2023F / 2024F / 2025F will reach 34.2mn (+185% YoY) / 42.1mn (+23% YoY) / 50.9mn (+21% YoY), respectively.
Domestic tourism
challenges • The domestic tourism landscape faced challenges, with a total of 92mn domestic tourists recorded in 11M23 (-4.5% YoY). We believe that unfavorable factors such as high airfare prices
in 9M23 and the general impact of the economic stagnation have decreased domestic tourism demand. We forecast that the total number of domestic tourists in 2023 and 2024 will be
around 102mn, equivalent to that of 2022; and the number of domestic passengers will reach 85.3mn (-2% YoY) in 2023 and 87.9mn (+3% YoY) in 2024.
International tourists to Vietnam Domestic and international passengers through Vietnam airports in the period of 2018 – 2024F
China Korea Japan Others Domestic International %y-o-y domestic %y-o-y international
Mn visitors Mn
21 140 2500%
18 120 2000%
15 100
1500%
12 80
1000%
9 60
500%
6 40
3 20 0%
0 0 -500%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 11T2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Source: General Department of Tourism , Mirae Asset Research Vietnam
Taseco Air Services JSC (AST VN) Aviation
Maintaining steady performance

Investment points
(Maintain) BUY Overview: Taseco Air Services JSC (AST), formerly known as Taseco Noi Bai Aviation Services JSC, was established in 2015 to operate service business activities in Noi Bai airports.
AST's diverse business segments encompass Merchandise Souvenirs, Duty-Free Goods, Airport Lounges, Food and Beverage, Transportation, Hotel, and other support services.
Presently, AST's stores are strategically positioned in the six largest airports in Vietnam, with future expansion plans targeting new airports like Phan Thiet and Long Thanh.
Target price
65,200
(VND, 12M) Revenue and profit projections (2023-2024): We assess that the increase in passenger numbers through airports will continue to boost AST's revenue in the period of 2023-2024.
Our forecast for AST's revenue in 2023 and 2024 stands at VND1,082bn (+79% YoY) and VND1,423bn (+31% YoY), respectively. The revenue from duty-free stores is expected to
experience robust double-digit growth, propelled by the purchasing power of foreign tourists, reaching VND308bn (+195.6% YoY) in 2023 and VND504bn (+63.6% YoY) in 2024.
Current price
50,500 NPATMI is expected at VND129bn (+460% YoY) in 2023 and VND162bn (+25.5% YoY) in 2024, respectively.
(1/02/24)
9M23 business results: In 9M23, AST witnessed a remarkable recovery, with revenue reaching VND810bn (+109% YoY) and net profit soaring to VND110bn (13x YoY higher). The
resurgence of AST is linked to the recovery of international air traffic, supported by new visa policies and the elimination of flight barriers between countries, following a prolonged
Expected return 29% period of disruption caused by the Covid epidemic. According to data from the Vietnam Aviation Administration, airports nationwide welcomed 89mn passengers (+20% YoY) in
9M23, with international passenger numbers reaching 23.7mn (+266.8% YoY), while domestic visitors experienced a slight decline of 3.6% YoY, totaling 65.2mn.
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 162 Valuation: We recommend Buy for AST stock with a target price of VND65,200 based on the FCFE method.
P/E (24F, x) 14.2
Shares outstanding (mn) 45 Revenue (VNDbn) 359 154 604 1,082 1,423 1,655
OP (VNDbn) (65) (107) 34 141 206 265
Free float (%) 20.8
OP margin (%) -18.2% -69.7% 5.7% 13.0% 14.5% 16.0%
Foreign ownership (%) 45.0 EBITDA (VNDbn) (26) (69) 72 183 248 309
52-week low (VND) 48,000 NPATMI (VNDbn) (49) (118) 23 129 162 205
EPS (VND) (1,080) (2,600) 510 2,839 3,564 4,523
ROE (%) -10.5% -34.5% 8.5% 32.1% 35.0% 40.5%
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) -50.2x -18.4x 71.8x 17.8x 14.2x 12.8x
Absolute 1.6 -15.7 -11.4 P/B (x) 4.2x 4.9x 4.3x 4.3x 3.7x 3.2x
Relative Total assets (VNDbn) 625 503 579 703 828 935
-1.1 -16.2 -23.8
Equity (VNDbn) 490 373 398 453 522 572
IT – Accelerating demand for digital transformation
• The industry is expected to maintain strong growth thanks to increasing local demand for digitalization spanning both private and public sector, robust software and IT
Being poised for services exports, and emerging opportunities in chipmaking.
robust growth • Vietnam’s digital economy is expected to record a fastest growth in Southeast Asia with a 31% growth in Gross Merchandise Volume during the 2022-2025 period and 19%
during 2025-2030, of which cloud computing and ICT (Information and communications technology) services will play an integral role. Decision No. 749/QD-TTg brings
forward two ambitious targets: (1) advance Vietnam to the world’s top 50 countries in terms of the UN E-Government Development Index (EGDI), and (2) the digital economy
accounting for 30% of the country's GDP by 2030. According to the Ministry of Information and Communications, the share of the digital economy in GDP has expanded
continually, from 11.91% in 2021 to 14.29% in 2022, and nearly 15% in 1H23.
• Solid growth momentum of Vietnam's software & IT services exports, with the advantages of labor resources and increasing consolidation of Vietnam’s worldwide software
outsourcing. As of 2023, Vietnam ranks 7th globally on Kearney’s Global Services Location Index (GSLI), which measures the attractiveness of outsourcing locations for IT
services. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC), digital transformation spending is forecast to reach 2021−2026 CAGR of 16.3%.
• Following US President Joe Biden's visit to Vietnam, there is a positive outlook for future collaboration between the US and Vietnam. The US$500mn ITSI Fund, established
under the US CHIPS Act of 2022, is set to support a comprehensive review of Vietnam's semiconductor ecosystem and regulatory framework. As of 1Q23, Vietnam ranked 3rd
in chip exports to the US behind Malaysia and Taiwan, accounting for 10% of the total imports. However, recent trend in 1Q23 showed a remarkable shift as Vietnam recorded
a 62.6% YoY growth while Malaysia recorded a decrease of 32.3% YoY and Taiwan slightly increase by 8.1% YoY.
Vietnam’s digital economy is expected to record a fastest growth in the SEA Vietnam to increase proportion of digital economy (% GDP)
Digital economy GMV CAGR (%) 2022-2025 Digital economy GMV CAGR (%) 2025-2030 35.0%
Expected nominal GDP CAGR (%) 2022-2025 Expected nominal GDP CAGR (%) 2025-2030 30.0%
30.0%
35%
31%
30% 25.0%
20.0%
25% 20.0%
19% 20% 20%
20% 19% 15.0%
17% 17% 14.3%
15% 15.0%
11.9%
15% 13%
11% 10.0%
10% 7%
7%
5.0%
5%
0% 0.0%
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 2021 2022 1H2023 2025 2030
Sources: Google, Temasek, Bain & Company, Ministry of Information and Communications, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
IT – Accelerating demand for digital transformation (cont’d.)
Vietnam targets 50th rank in E-Government Development Index by 2030 Vietnam ranked 7th globally in Kearney’s GSLI for IT services outsourcing locations
Singapore Financial attractiveness People skills and availability Business environment Digital resonance
Malaysia
India
Thailand
Brunei Darussalam China
Indonesia Malaysia
Viet Nam 0.6787 Brazil

th
Philippines (2022 ranking: 86 of 193) United Kingdom
Asia-SEA average
Indonesia
World
Vietnam
Cambodia
United States
Myanmar
Thailand
Timor-Leste
Lao People's Democratic Republic Mexico
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Vietnam ranks 3rd in US chip imports with accelerating YoY growth (TTM) Valuation of IT companies in major markets
(US$bn) 2022 Q1 2023 Q1 TCS IN

50
6.0
5.0 40
INFO IN
4.0
FPT VN
30
3.0 MPHL IN COFORGE IN
ROE (%)
HCLT IN
2.0 20
CTSH US 002439 CH
1.0
10 002544 CH
CMG VN
0.0
IBM US
0354 HKG ELC VN
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
P/E (x)
83 | Vietnam macro and stock market Sources: UN-EGDI, Kearney, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research
FPT Corporation (FPT VN) IT
Solid market penetration

Quan Ton, quan.td@miraeasset.com.vn
Investment points
(Maintain) TRADING BUY Overview: Established in 1988, FPT’s main business is in software, information and system integration, telecommunications, and education. As a global technology company, FPT
has 178 headquarters, offices, and branches in 26 countries and territories globally. Its technology infrastructure covers 59 out of Vietnam’s 63 provinces and cities. FPT is also one
of Vietnam’s leading telecom and internet service providers. The company was equitized in 2002 and listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) in 2006.
Target price
111,600
(VND, 12M) Growth challenges in 2024: In 11M23, FPT’s Global IT segment, constituting 46.8% of total revenue, grew impressively at 29% YoY, offsetting challenges in the domestic economy
and driving the technology segment 's overall performance. In 3Q23 results call, FPT anticipates 20%-30% revenue growth in key global IT markets in 2024. We forecast 2024’s net
revenue of VND61,947bn (+18% YoY) and NPAT of VND7,621bn (+18.7% YoY).
Current price
95,900
(1/02/24) • Global IT and domestic IT: The Japan and APAC markets witnessed impressive revenue growth of 46% YoY and 30.2% YoY, respectively, in 11M23. However, subdued growth is
anticipated in both global and domestic IT due to challenges in banking, automotive, and the retail industry. Despite the promising prospects, contributions from the
semiconductor business and downstream AI work to earnings in the short-term seem unlikely. On a positive note, inflation pressure on IT wages (an important cost driver) has
Expected return 16% eased.
• Recent M&A activities in line with global expansion plan: FPT's recent strategic partnership with Landing AI, a U.S.-based computer vision platform, aims to implement
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 7,621 computer vision solutions across various industries, including automotive, manufacturing, and healthcare. The collaboration will also focus on educating and training
individuals in AI in Vietnam. Dr. Andrew Ng (Landing A ’s founder and CEO, cofounder of Google Brain and Coursera) will serve as advisor to FPT to create “a comprehensive AI
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) N/A
curriculum for students from grade 1 to grade 12”. FPT has also acquired Cardinal Peak to reinforce its product engineering capabilities.
• Risks: (1) Enterprises’ spending pressure and tightened budgets due to macro weakness may impact sales volume. (2) Foreign exchange risks have notably impacted the
P/E (24F, x) 14.1 Japanese market.
Market cap (VND bn)

(%) FY (31/12) 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
105,132 FPT VN-Index
170 Revenue (VNDbn) 29,830 35,657 44,010 52,283 61,947 72,813
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,269
OP (VNDbn) 4,605 5,415 6,795 7,958 9,634 11,419
150
Free float (%) 85.0 OP margin (%) 15.4 15.2 15.4 15.2 15.6 15.7
Foreign ownership (%) 49.0 130 EBITDA (VNDbn) 6,095 7,059 8,628 10,120 12,009 14,156
NPATMI (VNDbn) 3,538 4,337 5,310 6,422 7,621 8,995
52-week low (VND) 66,200 110
EPS (VND) 4,115 4,342 4,420 4,617 5,479 6,467
52-week high (VND) 99,000 90 ROE (%) 23.8 25.8 27.2 28.0 28.4 28.7
P/E (x) 18.7 17.7 17.5 16.7 14.1 11.9
(%) 1M 6M 12M 70
P/B (x) 4.2 4.3 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.8
Absolute 5.3 31.5 43.3 50
Relative Dec 22 Mar 23 Jun 23 Sep 23 Dec 23
3.8 31.6 36.8
Equity (VNDbn) 15,746 17,941 21,046 24,775 28,904 33,777
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Seaport – Heading towards recovery
• Gradual recovery in export-import and clearance activities: In 11M23, export-import value maintained the recovery trend when the decline narrowed gradually, at US$619.4bn (-
Key players' actions to 8.2% YoY; 10M23: -9.5% YoY). Most of Vietnam’s key export products saw narrower declines, with some even growing in value, including: Electronics (+1.8% YoY; 10M23: +0.7% YoY);
Phones (-11.8% YoY; 10M23: - 12.6% YoY); Machinery (-6.7% YoY; 10M23: - 7.1% YoY). In 11M23, growth in exports to China reached 5.1% YoY (10M23: +5.1% YoY, 8M23: +2.5% YoY), while
combat low shipping other major markets narrowed their declines, including the US (-13.1% YoY; 10M23: -15.2% YoY); Korea (-4.0% YoY; 10M23: -5.1% YoY). Clearance activities also showed signs of
recovery, with 8M23 throughput volume estimated at 495.8mn tons, returning to a positive growth rate (+0.1% YoY). Of this, the volume of export and import goods was estimated at
price 115.7mn tons (-4.7% YoY, 7M23: -4.8% YoY) and 145mn tons (+2% YoY; 7M23: +1.5% YoY), respectively. In terms of container volume, 8M23 results also showed positive signals, with a
narrowing rate of decline. 8M23 total container volume was estimated at 15.9mn TEU (-6.1% YoY; 7M23: -6.3% YoY).
• Domestic manufacturing and FDI: Manufacturing activities recorded some improvements, with Vietnam’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) continuing its upward trend since May,
reaching 5.8% YoY in November. In addition, in October, FDI saw positive signals, with newly-registered capital of US$5.1bn and 354 new projects, the highest monthly figures in 2023.
• Key players' recent actions to combat low shipping price: THE Alliance announced plans to suspend two key East-West routes to stem the decline. THE Alliance, including members
Hapag-Lloyd, Ocean Network Express, Yang Ming Marine Transport, and HMM, will "temporarily" stop the EC4 and FE5 routes operating from Asia to the US East Coast and Northern
Europe. Amid weak demand, we expect further actions from major players to reduce supply until mid-2024 that should result in a recovery of shipping prices. This will support
companies whose revenue mainly comes from shipping.
• Impact of Red Sea attacks on transportation costs: The surge in attacks on the Red Sea, leading to temporary restrictions on access and a shift in shipping routes via South Africa,
might result in a short-term escalation of transport prices. However, in the long term, we expect the US and Western countries to not let the situation persist because it will affect
inflation control and oil supply.
• Vietnam-US comprehensive strategic partnership: Thanks to warming bilateral ties, issues such as market access barriers have been addressed via the Trade and Investment
Framework Agreement. We believe Vietnam’s seaport sector and logistics industry should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the improving Vietnam-US relationship, as the US is the
largest customer of Vietnam goods.
Clearance output of major seaports Shipping rate indexes Vietnam’s sea & waterway shipping volume
(% YoY) (Mn Tons)
Singapore Hong Kong Drewry HK-Los Angeles WCI freight rate Sea Inland waterway
Total Mainland China Major North America
15 12,000 500
450
10
10,000
400
5
350
0 8,000
300
-5
6,000 250
-10
200
-15 4,000 150
-20 100
2,000
-25 50
-30 0 0
Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Dec-18 Sep-19 Jun-20 Mar-21 Dec-21 Sep-22 Jun-23 11M19 11M20 11M21 11M22 11M23
Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Vietnam Research
Vietnam Container Shipping JSC (VSC VN) Logistics
Continued growth in revenue

Investment points
(Maintain) BUY
▪ Investment thesis: Vietnam Container Shipping JSC (VSC VN) is a logistics company that conducts business mainly in Northern Vietnam via a system of seaports, depots,
warehouses, and transport vehicles in the Dinh Vu region of Hai Phong. The company has enjoyed steady growth and aims to become the largest seaport service provider in
Target price Northern Vietnam through the acquisition of Nam Hai Dinh Vu port. We see VSC as a steadily growing logistics company with a strong financial position and solid cashflow.
35,400
(VND, 12M) ▪ 2024 forecast: In 2024, we believe the key driver of VSC revenue growth should come from the strategic business combination with NHDV, according to the company’s plan to
increase its holding to at least 79% (2023: 35%). Thus, total VSC’s seaport output should increase by 50% to 1,500,000 TEU in 2024. In addition, depot output is expected to return
Current price to around 900,000 TEU (+5% YoY), thanks to the NHDV combination and logistics demand recovery in the Northern Vietnam. The output of other businesses, like transport and
28,850 warehouse, will maintain growth rates of 5% in 2024. Therefore, our forecast for VSC's 2024 revenue stands at VND2,415bn (+18.5% YoY). Gross margin may improve slightly
(1/02/24)
while SG&A also rise because of the combination with NHDV. We forecast VSC’s 2024 operating profits and NPATMI at VND328.9bn (+40.2% YoY) and VND213.1bn (+40.2% YoY),
respectively.
Expected return 23%
▪ Recommendation: We used the discounted free cashflow to the firm (FCFF) method to valuate VSC stock, with the following assumptions: 1) Required rate of return at 12%
(WACC of 11.1%); 2) long-term growth rate in 2033 of 5%; and 3) the average unit service price remaining flat until 2033. We maintain our target price of VND35,400 for VSC.
NPATMI (24F, VNDbn) 213 ▪ Key risks: Changes in VSC’s investment plans; capacity expansion in Dinh Vu-Lach Huyen area; weak export-import activities; changes in service prices by the government are
Market consensus (24F, VNDbn) NA the major risks to our forecast, valuation, and rating.
EPS Growth (24F, %) -30
P/E (24F, x) 27.2
Market cap (VND bn) 3,908 (%) VN nde VSC VN FY (31/12) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23F FY24F FY25F
133
OP (VNDbn) 320 473 484 235 329 359
Free float (%) 91.7 110 OP margin (%) 18.9 25 24.1 12 14 14
Foreign ownership (%) 2.5 Pre-tax income (VNDbn) 336 483 477 235 329 359
0
52-week low (VND) 22,900 NPATMI (VNDbn) 240 350 314 152 213 232
70 EPS (VND) 2,024 2,682 2,451 1,048 735 729

ROE (%) 12.2 16.8 12.7 6.0 6.8 6.2
(%) 1M 6M 12M 50 P/E (x) 14.1 14.7 12.4 28.5 27.2 24.9
Absolute 9.9 1.2 0.7 P/B (x) 1.7 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2
30
7.9 0.6 -6.2 Dec 22 Feb 23 Apr 23 un 23 Aug 23 ct 23 Dec 23
Equity (VNDbn) 2,171 2,996 3,201 3,236 4,721 4,825
APPENDIX
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings
Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) JSC, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
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The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are subject to Vietnamese securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof.
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) JSC (MAS) policy prohibits its
Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as
otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the
compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of MAS, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by
overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do
not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or MAS except as otherwise stated herein.
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No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of MAS.
Mirae Asset Securities International Network
Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. (Seoul) Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd. Mirae Asset Securities (UK) Ltd.
One-Asia Equity Sales Team Units 8501, 8507-8508, 85/F 41st Floor, Tower 42
Mirae Asset Center 1 Building International Commerce Centre 25 Old Broad Street,
26 Eulji-ro 5-gil, Jung-gu, Seoul 04539 1 Austin Road West London EC2N 1HQ
Korea Kowloon United Kingdom
Hong Kong
Tel: 82-2-3774-2124 Tel: 852-2845-6332 Tel: 44-20-7982-8000
Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc. Mirae Asset Wealth Management (USA) Inc. Mirae Asset Wealth Management (Brazil) CCTVM
810 Seventh Avenue, 37th Floor 555 S. Flower Street, Suite 4410, Rua Funchal, 418, 18th Floor, E-Tower Building
New York, NY 10019 Los Angeles, California 90071 Vila Olimpia
USA USA Sao Paulo - SP
04551-060
Brazil
Tel: 1-212-407-1000 Tel: 1-213-262-3807 Tel: 55-11-2789-2100

PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Mirae Asset Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) JSC
District 8, Treasury Tower Building Lt. 50 6 Battery Road, #11-01 7F, Le Meridien Building
Sudirman Central Business District Singapore 049909 3C Ton Duc Thang St.
Jl. Jend. Sudirman, Kav. 52-54 Republic of Singapore District 1, Ben Nghe Ward, Ho Chi Minh City
Jakarta Selatan 12190 Vietnam
Indonesia
Tel: 62-21-5088-7000 Tel: 65-6671-9845 Tel: 84-8-3911-0633 (ext.110)
Mirae Asset Securities Mongolia UTsK LLC Mirae Asset Investment Advisory (Beijing) Co., Ltd Beijing Representative Office
#406, Blue Sky Tower, Peace Avenue 17 2401B, 24th Floor, East Tower, Twin Towers 2401A, 24th Floor, East Tower, Twin Towers
1 Khoroo, Sukhbaatar District B12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang District B12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang District
Ulaanbaatar 14240 Beijing 100022 Beijing 100022
Mongolia China China
Tel: 976-7011-0806 Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 (ext. 3300)

Shanghai Representative Office Ho Chi Minh Representative Office Mirae Asset Capital Markets (India) Private Limited
38T31, 38F, Shanghai World Financial Center 7F, Saigon Royal Building Unit No. 506, 5th Floor, Windsor Bldg., Off CST
100 Century Avenue, Pudong New Area 91 Pasteur St. Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai – 400098
Shanghai 200120 District 1, Ben Nghe Ward, Ho Chi Minh City India
China Vietnam
Tel: 86-21-5013-6392 Tel: 84-8-3910-7715 Tel: 91-22-62661336

1704356695014-MASVN RS 2024outlook EN

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[Yearly report] January 04, 2024

Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) JSC

③ Vietnam’s stock market 26

Valuations: Historical average reversion

• US: Fed pivot and soft landing expectations

• Vietnam’s government aims to maintain high GDP growth.

Global GDP growth consensus Global inflation consensus

Summary of FOMC economic projections 2024 FOMC meetings

CME-implied rate Assumed

September 5.6 5.1 3.9 2.9 2.5 Total -150bps

Country Event Date

Taiwan Elections (Presidential & Legislative) January 13, 2024

US Federal government shutdown deadline, part 1 January 19, 2024

US Federal government shutdown deadline, part 2 February 2, 2024

Russia Election (Presidential) March 17, 2024

Ukraine Election (Presidential) March 31, 2024 (TBC)

South Korea Election (Legislative) April 10, 2024

India Election (Legislative) April–May 2024

EU Election (Legislative) June 6–9, 2024

US Election (Presidential & Legislative) November 5, 2024

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compiled

(% (% YoY) 2024F GDP growth 2024F inflation

Contribution of Total Factor

Target 2030: Services ~ 50% 2016–2020 average: 6.3%

Target 2030: Industry and Target by 2025: US$5,000

Target 2030: Agriculture, forestry, Target by 2030: US$7,500

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from MOF

FDI Cumulative registered FDI of valid projects as of Dec. 20, 2023

FDI disbursement Registered FDI South Korea Processing and Manufacturing

Project Country Registered FDI capital Province Registered

GDP structure Average labor

Vietnam’s exports and imports

(US$bn) Trade balance (R) Exports (US$bn) Imports (US$bn)

Comprehensive China Russia India South Korea US Japan

60 South Korea Japan Taiwan

-30 -15 -10 40

Monthly retail sales Monthly retail sales growth

Total retail sales (% YoY) (% YoY)

100,000 -20 -50

Vietnam’s tourism revenue International and domestic tourists in Vietnam

(Million China South Korea (Million

700 +1.1% 100

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from GSO.

Vietnam CPI breakdown

2023 percent change

Credit and deposit growth Credit growth by industry as of October 2023

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries Manufacturing & Industrials

14% 2019 13.65%

-50 -2.0 10% 6%

Key contents Assessment

Restricts real estate investors from collecting advance payments/deposits of

Imposes stricter legal requirements on investors before they can

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Vietnam cuts refinancing

(% of GDP) (% of GDP) Deletion (R)

116 -5 122.1 7,000,000

-20,000 6,000 -80 -400

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; compiled from Bloomberg

90 EPS growth in 2024 0% 13% 19.6%

Market Market performance EPS growth (% YoY) P/E EY ROE (%)

Japan (x) (x)

Net foreign investment inflows (HOSE) Attracted by Vietnam’s

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023