HAWASSA UNIVERSITY WONDO GENET COLLEGE OF FORESTRY AND

NATURAL RESOURCES

DEPARTMENTS OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SCIENCE (GISc)

Modeling Runoff Effect on Agricultural Land use Productivity

In Toga Watershed

Submitted BY: KETEMAW MISAYE

ID:1492
Advisor Name: OYTISA ONATO

January,2023
Wondo Genet,
Ethiopia

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Acknowledgement
At first and at most I would like to thank the one almighty God for giving me the courage and
wisdom to reach this point in my life. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor,
Mr. Oyitsa Onato, for his unreserved assistance, constructive and timely comments at all stages
of my work and also for supplying me relevant materials to carry out the research. I should
strongly appreciate his patienceful guidance in a lot of discussions we made on various
problems. Finally we express our great thank to all members of the department staff for their
valuable advice and help to complete the research successfully.

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Abstract
Runoff, the movement of water across land, poses significant challenges in assessing,
monitoring, and managing Toga watersheds due to lack of spatial data integration, limited real-
time monitoring tools, and inadequate community awareness. Excessive runoff can lead to
erosion, soil degradation, and nutrient loss in agricultural fields, affecting crop yields and water
depth. This research aims to investigate and quantify the impact of runoff on agricultural land
productivity using a hydrological model, providing insights for effective mitigation strategies
and sustainable land management practices in the Toga watershed.

The research aims to improve water resource management and agricultural sustainability by
modeling the impact of runoff on agricultural activities in the Toga watershed. It will evaluate
erosion potential, assess agricultural productivity using time series NDVI anomalies, and
determine the extent of erosion caused by agricultural activities. This study focuses on the runoff
effect on agriculture in the Toga watershed system, analyzing inputs and output goods crop
variation at the farm level. It will use primary and secondary data sources, including direct
observation, household surveys, and focus group discussions. The research design will involve a
comparative cross-sectional survey using GIS, combining quantitative and qualitative
information.

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Table of Contents
Acronym’s....................................................................................................................................................ii

1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Background of Study..................................................................................................................1
1.2 Statement of the problem..........................................................................................................2
1.3 Objectives...................................................................................................................................3
1.3.1 General objective...................................................................................................................3
1.4 Research Questions/ Research hypothesis.................................................................................4
1.5 Significances Of the Research.....................................................................................................4
1.6 Scope of the Study.....................................................................................................................5
1.7 Limitation of the study...............................................................................................................5
1.8 Organizations of the study.........................................................................................................5
2 Review of literature.............................................................................................................................6
2.1 Hydrological Model....................................................................................................................6
2.1.1 SWAT Model..........................................................................................................................7
2.1.2 Model Selection.....................................................................................................................7
2.2 Characterizing production impacts.............................................................................................8
2.3 Runoff.........................................................................................................................................8
2.3.1 Types of Runoff......................................................................................................................8
2.4 Watershed Factors that Affect Runoff........................................................................................9
2.4.1 Land Slope..............................................................................................................................9
2.4.2 Shape.....................................................................................................................................9
2.4.3 Soil.........................................................................................................................................9
2.4.4 Land use Land cover...............................................................................................................9
3 Description of study area...................................................................................................................11
3.1 Location and Topography.........................................................................................................11
3.2 Climate and Hydrology.............................................................................................................11
3.2.1 Rainfall.................................................................................................................................11
3.2.2 Temperature........................................................................................................................12
3.3 Research Design.......................................................................................................................12
4 Methodology.....................................................................................................................................12
4.1 Materials and Data Used..........................................................................................................12
4.2 Data Types and Source.............................................................................................................12
4.2.1 Digital Elevation Model (DEM).............................................................................................13

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 4.2.2 Land Use/Cover Map............................................................................................................13
4.3 Sampling Techniques and Sample Size.....................................................................................13
4.4 Data Analysis............................................................................................................................14
4.5 Hydrological Component of SWAT...........................................................................................15
4.6 Surface Runoff Generation.......................................................................................................15
4.7 Watershed Delineation............................................................................................................16
5 Expected output................................................................................................................................17
6 TIME TABLE........................................................................................................................................17
6.1 Work plan.................................................................................................................................17
6.2 BUDGET BREAKDOWEN............................................................................................................17
7 Reference..........................................................................................................................................18

Acronym’s

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GIS Geographic Information Science
QGIS Quantum Geographic Information System
QSWAT Qualitative Soil and Water Assessment Tool
SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool
HRU Hydrological Response Unit
ITCZ Inter-tropical Convergence Zone
DEM Digital Elevation Model
LULC Land Use Land Cover
RS Remote Sensing

List of Table
Table 1: Work Estimation..............................................................................................................20
Table 2: Budget Estimation...........................................................................................................21

Table of Figure
Figure 1: Location Map.................................................................................................................14
Figure 2: flow chart of QSWAT....................................................................................................19

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1 Introduction

1.1 Background of Study

A watershed is a land area in which all water flow into a single point called outlet. (Narayan et
al., 2016).Watershed management is a critical aspect of sustainable land use planning in Africa,
particularly in agricultural areas where runoff can have a significant impact on productivity. By
effectively managing watersheds, it is possible to reduce erosion, improve water quality, and
enhance overall land productivity(Kaburi & Odera, 2014).One of the key components of
watershed management is modeling the runoff effects on agricultural land use productivity.
Runoff can lead to erosion, sedimentation, and nutrient loss. By modeling runoff, land managers
can better understand how water moves through the landscape and how it affects agricultural
productivity (Abdulahi, 2021).In Ethiopia, where agriculture is the main source of livelihood for
the majority of the population, modeling runoff is crucial for ensuring sustainable land use
practices. By understanding how water moves through the landscape, land managers can
implement measures to reduce erosion, improve soil fertility, and enhance water availability for
crops(Aher, Adinarayana, Gorantiwar, et al., 2014).Toga watershed is vital region for
agricultural production yet it is becoming erosion and runoff prone area. To overcome such
environmental problems facing in the watershed, an in-depth modeling is required to
comprehend and regulate the effects of runoff on agricultural land more effectively(Pandey et al.,
2005).
The consequences of precipitation runoff on soil erosion, nutrient loss, and total land
productivity can be profound, therefore developing precise models to evaluate and control these
effects is crucial(Thakkar et al., 2017). Through the process of modeling and examining the
relationships among precipitation, land use, soil composition, and topography, scientists may
offer significant perspectives on managing watersheds, planning land uses, and implementing
sustainable farming methods. The significance of simulating runoff's impacts on agriculture
within a watershed and the possible advantages of this research for agricultural sustainability and
environmental preservation will be discussed in this introduction(Roy, 1979). Hydrological
models are useful for assessing and choosing among various land use and management

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strategies. To assess the characteristics of water runoff that are impacted by agricultural land
management at the field and watershed scales, several simulation models have been created. The
most recent and successfully utilized model among them is the Quantum Soil and Water
Assessment Tool (QSWAT), which simulates runoff, sediment production, and water quality of
an agricultural watershed in its entirety(Patel et al., 2023).

In the proposal development, they will be using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation
(RUSLE), which is modeling by GIS and remote sensing techniques, an attempt is made to
estimate and map the geographical pattern of the soil loss rate by water and also determine,
understand and identify runoff effect on agricultural.(Pandey et al., 2005). For this development,
the toga watershed is choices since there was a dearth of data on soil loss and appraisal of the
risk of possible soil erosion, as well as no help from GIS or remote sensing tools(Twumasi &
Merem, 2006).

By modeling runoff effects on agricultural land use, land managers can reduce erosion, improve
water quality, and enhance overall land productivity(Aher, Adinarayana, & Gorantiwar, 2014).
In Ethiopia, where agriculture is the main source of livelihood, modeling runoff is essential for
implementing measures to reduce erosion, improve soil fertility, and enhance water availability
for crops. In the Toga watershed, an erosion and runoff-prone area, in-depth modeling is needed
to understand and regulate the effects of runoff on agricultural land(Parupalli et al., 2019).
Hydrological models, such as the Quality Soil and Water Assessment Tool (QSWAT), are useful
for assessing and choosing land use and management strategies. The Revised Universal Soil Loss
Equation (RUSLE) is used to estimate and map the geographical pattern of soil loss rate by
water, identifying runoff effects on agricultural.

1.2 Statement of the problem

Runoff is the movement of water across the land surface .Runoff, in hydrology, quantity of
water discharged in surface streams(Tufa & Sime, 2021). Around tikurwuha many area continue
to face challenges in effectively assessing, monitoring, and managing toga watersheds. The lack
of full spatial data integration, limited tools for real-time monitoring, and inadequate community
awareness are hindering the development and implementation of sustainable effective watershed
management. Excessive runoff due to heavy rainfall can lead to erosion, soil degradation, and

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nutrient loss in agricultural fields. This can result in reduced crop yields, decreased soil fertility,
and decrease depth in water bodies.

The impact of runoff on agricultural land, including soil erosion, nutrient loss, and water
contamination, poses significant threats to the sustainability and productivity of farming
activities(Barnard, 1978). Despite these problems, therefore, there is a critical need to investigate
and quantify the impact of runoff on agricultural land productivity using a hydrological model.
By determining the specific impacts of runoff on agricultural land, this research will provide
valuable insights for developing effective mitigation strategies and sustainable land management
practices to support the resilience and productivity of agriculture in the watershed(Teklewold &
Koḧlin, 2011).This research aims to address knowledge gap by assessing hydrological processes
and their impact on agricultural practices in the Toga watershed, providing insights for effective
mitigation strategies. There is a lack of complete understanding of the specific effects of runoff
on agricultural practices in the Toga watershed. As a result, it is necessary to analyze and
quantify the impact of runoff on agricultural land production using a hydrological model because
there is no more research’s was done until to this time.

1.3 Objectives

1.3.1 General objective

The overall objective of study is modeling the runoff effects on agricultural activities in the
toga watershed and to improve water resource management and agricultural sustainability.
1.3.2 Specific objectives

1. To determine the impact of runoff on agricultural practice in the toga watershed using a hydrological
model.
2. Evaluate the potential for erosion due to agricultural activities and their influence on runoff in the
toga watershed.
3. To assess the agricultural productivity of the study area using time series NDVI anomalies

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1.4 Research Questions/ Research hypothesis

 How can a hydrological model be used to predict and assess the impact of runoff on
agricultural practices in the Toga watershed?
 What is the extent of erosion in the Toga watershed caused by agricultural activities?
 How does the agricultural productivity of the study area vary over time based on time series
NDVI anomalies?

1.5 Significances Of the Research

Modeling runoff effects on agriculture in Toga Waters is important for a number of reasons,
including the opportunity to raise awareness about the issue. Research allows us to have a better
understanding of the direct and indirect effects of runoff on agriculture in Toga Waters.
Researchers can quantify the magnitude of runoff and its implications for agricultural output by
looking into the various factors that contribute to it, such as land use, soil erosion, and
precipitation trends. Researchers can identify sections of Toga Waters that are especially
sensitive to agricultural runoff by simulating runoff effects. This data can help policymakers and
farmers focus their efforts and resources on mitigating the negative consequences. Research can
provide insights into sustainable agricultural techniques that reduce runoff consequences.
Researchers can provide effective strategies for preventing soil erosion and nutrient loss by
examining the performance of various tactics such as contour plowing, cover cropping, and
terracing.

The findings of this research is assist in developing legislation and regulations aimed at reducing
runoff's impact on agriculture. Modeling runoff effects can also help us predict how climate
change will worsen the situation in the future. By incorporating climate forecasts into the
models, researchers may investigate future changes in runoff patterns and their implications for
agriculture. This knowledge can help farmers build adaptation strategies and plan for future
challenges. To summarize, research on modeling runoff effects on agriculture in Toga Waters is
vital because it raises awareness of the issue, identifies vulnerable areas, promotes sustainable
practices, informs policy creation, engages stakeholders, and aids in climate adaptation(Daniel et
al., 2010).

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1.6 Scope of the Study

This study will be focus only on special analysis of runoff effect on agriculture, which is
participating, predominantly in the watershed system on the inputs and output goods crop
variation at the farm level. In addition, the study is limited only in the Toga watershed area with
limited GIS application in terms of time and financial.

1.7 Limitation of the study

One of the study's main weaknesses is the availability and quality of data. Modeling runoff
effects requires accurate and detailed data on rainfall, soil properties, land use, and crop types.
However, getting such data might be difficult due to a variety of variables, including limited
resources, time constraints, and the requirement for extensive field surveys. As a result, the study
may rely on inadequate or out-of-date data, reducing the quality and reliability of the
findings(Badjana et al., 2017). Modeling runoff effects on agriculture requires establishing
certain assumptions in order to simplify the complicated interactions between many components.
These assumptions may oversimplify the real-world problem, resulting in potentially inaccurate
outcomes (Chatterjee & Bandyopadhyay, 2014).

The modeling process will not take into account future climate possibilities, such as changes in
rainfall patterns or an increase in the frequency of extreme weather occurrences. This constraint
limits the study's capacity to provide information about the long-term viability of agriculture in
the Toga Watershed. Future study should focus on addressing these constraints in order to
improve the accuracy and applicability of modeling studies in understanding runoff effects on
agriculture in the Toga Watershed.(Popovska & Sekovski, 2011).

1.8 Organizations of the study

This thesis report consists of five parts. The first part outlines the introduction, problems, and
objectives for the topic selected. Part 2 reviews theories and literature related to the research
problems. The third part consists of the Description of study area of the study. Part 4 focuses
methodology and discussion. The final one is the conclusion and expected output.

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2 Review of literature

2.1 Hydrological Model

Modeling is the process of generating a simplified model of a complicated system in order to

gain insight into its behavior and anticipate future consequences(Daniel et al., 2010). In the
agricultural toga watershed, modeling entails combining multiple parameters such as land use,
soil properties, climatic patterns, and hydrological processes to simulate runoff on the watershed
Concept of modeling(Pandey et al., 2005). Modeling enables academics and policymakers to
evaluate the potential impact of agricultural practices on watersheds. Simulating diverse
scenarios allows them to find the most sustainable land use practices and build effective
mitigation methods(P. BETSON, 1964).

Modeling aids in the efficient distribution of resources such as water, fertilizer, and pesticides.
Understanding runoff patterns enables farmers to make informed decisions about irrigation
schedules, nutrient application, and erosion control techniques, resulting in increased resource
efficiency(Popovska & Sekovski, 2011). Accurate modeling provides policymakers with
valuable insights into the potential consequences of different agricultural policies. This
information can guide the formulation of regulations and incentives that promote sustainable
land use practices and protect the watershed(Orkodjo, 2014).

Modeling enables the assessment of a watershed's vulnerability to climate change. By including

future climate scenarios, researchers may identify potential risks and design adaptation measures
to reduce the impact on agricultural output and water supplies. Modeling the runoff effect in the
agricultural toga watershed is an important step toward sustainable land use and watershed
management(Narayan et al., 2016). Modeling provides significant insights into the potential
implications of agricultural activities by combining many components and simulating numerous
scenarios. It aids in optimizing resource allocation, developing effective policies, and adapting to
climate change. To ensure the models' accuracy and usefulness, obstacles such as data
availability, uncertainty, and stakeholder participation must be addressed(Badjana et al., 2017).

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2.1.1 SWAT Model

SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is a hydrological model that simulates the effects of
land management techniques on water quality and quantity in watersheds. It is a popular tool for
watershed management and planning, as well as determining the impact of climate change and
land use changes on water resources(Orkodjo, 2014). The SWAT model is built on a set of
physical and empirical equations that represent a variety of hydrological processes such as
rainfall-runoff, evapotranspiration, sediment transport, nutrient cycling, and pesticide migration.
It employs a geographically distributed method, separating the watershed into several sub-basins
that are further subdivided into hydrological response units (HRUs) based on land use, soil type,
and slope. he SWAT model provides a comprehensive tool for watershed-scale water resources
management and planning, helping decision-makers and stakeholders to make informed
decisions for sustainable water management(Geza & McCray, 2008).

2.1.2 Model Selection

The selection of a specific model is a key issue in getting satisfactory answers to a given
problem. There are currently numerous hydrological models simulating the hydrological process
at different spatial and temporal scales. Although there are no clear criteria for choosing between
models, some simple guidelines can be stated(Iverson & Dervan, n.d.) Choosing the "right"
hydrologic model involves a variety of criteria. These criteria are always project-dependent, as
each project has unique requirements and needs(Iverson & Dervan, n.d.). Among the different
project-dependent selection criteria, there are four basic, fundamental ones that must be
consistently answered:
1. Does the model accurately predict project-related variables like peak flow, event volume, and
long-term flow sequence?
2. Can the model accurately simulate hydrologic processes like reservoir operation, snow
accumulation, and melt?
3. Is the model's input data available within the project's time and cost constraints?
4. Is the investment justified for the project's objectives?

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2.2 Characterizing production impacts

The explanatory power of average temperature as a predictor of future (simulated) runoff effect
on crop fields. Yield benefits can generally be expected in cooler and/or higher elevation

locations, up to current average temperatures. It is likely that the extent of climate-related

hazards is under estimated in the analysis above, because important extreme events such as
runoff and flooding are not being directly taken into account. In addition, the analysis does not
fully account for the fact that the variability of weather pattern in many places is increasing and
with it the probability of extreme events and natural disasters occurring. Changing rainfall
variability may have critical effects on several of the dimensions of agricultural lands; in addition
to impacts on food availability, variability may strongly affect the stability of food supplies and
vulnerable people’s ability to access food at affordable prices(Vieira & Gonzalez, 2003).

2.3 Runoff

Runoff is the movement of water across the land surface, which is commonly caused by
precipitation events(Barnard, 1978). It transports a variety of contaminants, sediments, and
nutrients, all of which have a substantial impact on agricultural systems(Badjana et al., 2017).
According to the research, excessive runoff can cause soil erosion, nutrient loss, waterlogging,
and lower agricultural yields(P. BETSON, 1964).

2.3.1 Types of Runoff

2.3.1.1 Surface Flow

Surface flow refers to water that remains on the surface and travels as overland or channel
flow(Dubreuil, 1985).

2.3.1.2 Interflow

Interflow is defined as water that enters the top soil profile, flows laterally through it, and then
reappears as surface flow downstream. The lateral flow is created by a comparatively
impermeable zone that precludes further descent. Under certain soil, geological, and land use
circumstances, interflow can contribute significantly to total direct runoff. It is abundant in
forested places with moderate to steep slopes and permeable soils of intermediate depth over

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bedrock. The forest and ground litter provide high infiltration for water to enter the soil, while
the slope provides energy for lateral flow.

2.3.1.3 Base flow

Base flow is water from a saturated groundwater zone that sits beneath most land regions. It
commonly appears downstream, where the channel height is lower than the groundwater table.
Ground water produces stream flow during dry spells with little or no precipitation. Ground
water may enter a canal through seepage along its lower banks. This type of flow is not typically
a significant contributor to flood runoff(Orkodjo, 2014).

2.4 Watershed Factors that Affect Runoff

2.4.1 Land Slope

The principal effect of land slope is on the rate of runoff. Runoff will flow faster on a steeper
slope. This results in higher peaks at downstream locations. The effect of land slope on the
volume is usually minor.

2.4.2 Shape

The shape of the watershed affects the rate of runoff. A long narrow watershed will have lower
runoff rates than a fan-shaped watershed(Dickinson & Whiteley, 1970).
2.4.3 Soil

The kind of soil has a significant impact on runoff because of its infiltration rate. Infiltration is
the movement of water through the soil surface and into the soil. Pore size and distribution are
crucial. Sand pores are stable because the particles do not shatter or swell. Soils containing silt or
clay are susceptible to crumbs breaking up during raindrop impact and soaking. The aggregate
melts, and the extremely minute particles floating on the surface penetrate and block existing
pores, decreasing infiltration(Tufa & Feyissa, 2019).

2.4.4 Land use Land cover

Land use and land cover influence hydrological processes within a watershed.. The complex link
between land use, land cover, and runoff has far-reaching consequences for water resource

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management, flood control, and ecological health(Orkodjo, 2014). This article will look at the
numerous elements that determine land use and land cover in the Toga Watershed, as well as
how they affect runoff(Ben Khélifa & Mosbahi, 2022) .The Toga Watershed includes a wide
variety of land uses and land cover types, including as urban areas, agricultural fields, wetlands,
and bodies of water(Sewnet, 2016). Each land use type has unique characteristics that influence
the volume and pace of runoff produced after a precipitation event(Ben Khélifa & Mosbahi,
2022).

The Toga Watershed is a complicated system in which land use and cover changes have a
substantial impact on runoff patterns. Urbanization, agriculture, wetland degradation, and
changes to water bodies all have an impact on the hydrological cycle. Understanding these
interactions is critical for effective water resource management, flood control, and ecosystem
health(Tukura & Akalu, 2010). Land use significantly impacts runoff, evapotranspiration, and
surface erosion within a catchment. The land use/cover map depicts the research area's numerous
land use/cover classes, as well as their spatial extent.

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3 Description of study area

3.1 Location and Topography

Figure 1: Location Map

3.2 Climate and Hydrology

3.2.1 Rainfall

The moisture for precipitation in the area originates from southwest equatorial air stream, which
moves northwards with inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ),(Ayenew et al., 2007). June to
September rainfall contributes 44% to the mean annual precipitation in the catchment. The
climate in the area is dry to sub-humid according to the Thornthwaite’s system of defining
climate or moisture regions

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3.2.2 Temperature

The mean annul temperature in tikurwuha lies between 15-200c the highest temperature found in
low land area of catchment. The hottest month are in spring before the rain start in march and
April, with mean monthly temperatures in in lowlands around Shashemene laying in the range
20-250c and falling to 15-250c in the high lands .Temperature lowers during the rainy season
and coldest month are July and December, with temperatures in the range 15-200c in the low
land and 10-150c in the highest part of sub-basin.

3.3 Research Design

The research design for this study will be a comparative cross-sectional survey study in GIS
based approach with both quantitative and qualitative information and modeling analysis of the
runoff effects.

4 Methodology

4.1 Materials and Data Used

The following spatial (image) data, soil map and historic time series of hydro meteorological
data have been collected and used in this study for the assessment of the impact of vegetation
cover reduction on hydrology, by using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), remote
sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS).rials and Data Used. Some materials and
data uses such as GIS,satellite image data and hydro metreorological data, soil data, Q
SWAT,DEM, Land use land cover map, ARCGIS10.8 and QGIS 3.34.

4.2 Data Types and Source

Both primary and secondary data sources will collect for this research. Primary data will be
collected by direct observation of the watershed area key informant interviews, household
survey, focus group discussions. Secondary data will be taken from the agricultural office of the
study districts of the watershed. Different Landsat image bands will be stacked and Geo-
referenced to get clear band composition and true geographical location of the watershed.

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4.2.1 Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) provides spatial input data such as elevation and slope, as
well as the location of the stream network within a basin. SWAT requires the Digital Elevation
Model as one of its inputs in order to divide the watershed into a number of sub-watersheds or
sub basins. The DEM is used to examine the watershed's drainage pattern, as well as stream
lengths and channel widths. The raw DEM is process and project using ArcGIS 10.3.

4.2.2 Land Use/Cover Map

Land use significantly impacts runoff, evapotranspiration, and surface erosion within a
catchment. The land use/cover map depicts the research area's numerous land use/cover classes,
as well as their spatial extent. The land use/cover data combine with the soil cover data generates
the hydrologic characteristics of the basin or the study area, which in turn determines the excess
precipitation, recharge to the ground water system and the storage in the soil layers. Landsat
satellite images contain image data and maps were obtain from Global Land Cover Facility
(GLCF) web site of different years.

4.3 Sampling Techniques and Sample Size

To investigate the impact of runoff on agriculture, utilize a purposive sampling technique and
select an adequate sample size. Determine which agricultural areas or regions are affected by
runoff. This could include specific farms, fields, or locations where runoff is a major concern.
Also determine which farms, fields, or locations within the target population you will include in
your research. Consider the severity of runoff, agricultural methods, and accessibility. The
sample size will be determined by a variety of criteria, including the level of precision required,
available resources, and time restrictions. You can utilize statistical methods or speak with a
statistician to determine the optimum sample size for accurate results. Once you've determined
the sample units, gather relevant information about the impact of runoff on agriculture. This
could include agricultural yield metrics, soil quality parameters, or other pertinent variables.
Analyze the collected data using the proper statistical techniques. Compare the findings from
different sample units to identify the influence of runoff on agriculture. Based on the data
analysis, develop conclusions about runoff's impact on agricultural output or other important

13
results. Discuss the ramifications of your findings and propose possible mitigation strategies.
Remember that purposive sampling enables you to choose certain sample units based on your
research aims. However, it is vital to identify any limits or biases that may occur from this
sampling technique.

4.4 Data Analysis

Determine the impact of runoff on agricultural practice in the toga watershed using QSWAT
model. QSWAT is the interface of SWAT , is used to preprocess GIS data. QSWAT is an
ArcGIS-based version of the SWAT model. It has a graphical user interface that allows you to
readily format GIS data for use in SWAT model simulations. QSWAT divides preprocessing into
four major steps: watershed delineation, hydrologic response unit (HRU) analysis, weather data
definition, and SWAT simulation, which includes sensitivity analysis and calibration. To
understand how each component works within the modeling process, one must first grasp the
conceptual framework of each stage, as well as the data used and how it is integrated into Q
SWAT.

To evaluate erosion potential, use QSWAT to collect important data on the land and agricultural
practices. This includes information regarding the soil type, slope of the ground, land use
methods, and weather conditions. Field surveys, soil tests, and weather records are all options for
gathering this information. After collecting the data, the next step is to enter it into the QSWAT
program. This can be accomplished using the software interface, which allows users to enter data
on the land and agricultural methods in a user-friendly style. The program then calculates the
probability of erosion based on characteristics like soil type, slope, and land use patterns. After
entering the data into the QSWAT application, the following step is to assess the results. The tool
will provide a risk assessment of erosion on the property, allowing farmers and land managers to
identify high-risk regions and take appropriate preventative steps. This may include applying
erosion control methods such as cover crop planting, terrace construction, or conservation tillage.
The final phase in the procedure is to assess the success of the erosion control measures that have
been deployed. This can be accomplished by frequently measuring soil erosion rates on the land
and making changes to management measures as needed.

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To assess the agricultural productivity of the study area using time series NDVI anomalies.
Collect time series NDVI data for the research area using satellite imaging sources such as
MODIS or Landsat. Preprocess the NDVI data to reduce noise and errors, and then calculate
NDVI anomalies by comparing each pixel's NDVI value to its long-term average NDVI value.
Load the NDVI anomalies data into the QSWAT model, a hydrological model that simulates the
effect of land use and land cover change on agriculture productivity.
Run the QSWAT model with the NDVI anomalies data to simulate how changes in vegetation
health affect agricultural productivity in the study region. Analyze the QSWAT model findings
to assess the association between NDVI anomalies and agriculture.

4.5 Hydrological Component of SWAT

Watershed hydrology is simulated in two parts. The land phase of the hydrological cycle
regulates the quantity of water, sediment, nutrient, and pesticide loadings into the main channel
of each sub-basin. The hydrological components simulate in the land phase of the hydrological
cycle include canopy storage, infiltration, redistribution, evapotranspiration, lateral subsurface
flow, surface runoff, ponds, tributary channels, and return flow. The second division is the
routing phase of the hydrologic cycle, which refers to the transportation of water, sediments,
nutrients, and organic compounds through the watershed's channel network to the outlet.

4.6 Surface Runoff Generation

Surface runoff, also known as overland flow, is a flow that happens down a sloping surface when
the rate of water application exceeds the rate of infiltration. It is an important part of the
hydrologic cycle. Surface runoff generation is an important activity in the hydrologic cycle. It
refers to the movement of water across the land surface before eventually finding its way into
streams, rivers, and other water bodies. Surface runoff generation in the Toga Watershed is a
complex process influenced by various factors such as precipitation, soil characteristics, land
use, and topography. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for effective water management,
including flood risk assessment, water supply planning, erosion control, and climate change
adaptation, reduce runoff effect on crop yield. By studying surface runoff generation, we can
ensure the sustainable use of water resources in the Toga Watershed.

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 4.7 Watershed Delineation

In Toga watershed delineation, the DEM with 30x30 pixel size, which provides topographic
information of the watershed, is use. The study area will be delineate using “Soil and Water
Assessment Tool Software” which is GIS interface.

New Layers:
Streams, Basins and Sub basins

DEM

DEM SWAT
Watershed Watershed Delineation Simulation
Outlet Land

Land Cover Sensitivity

Soil
HRU Analysis
Slop New Calibration and
Validation

Temperature New Layers:- HRU layer

Weather

Precipitation

Weather Data
Relative Humidity
Definition

Solar radiation

Figure 2: flow chart of QSWAT

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5 Expected output

The expected output would provide a comprehensive understanding spatially runoff effect on
agriculture, enabling informed decision-making for optimizing agricultural practices and
improving productivity. Based on the results of the analysis, Modeling may be providing for
farmers or land managers on how to optimize crop yield by using runoff. These Modeling may
include soil amendments, precision agriculture techniques to address Runoff effect identifie in
the analysis.. Identification of spatial patterns or clusters of high or low crop yields in relation to
specific soil properties. This analysis may involve techniques such as clustering algorithms or
hotspot analysis to identify areas with similar yield patterns.

6 TIME TABLE

6.1 Work plan

No October November December January February march

1 Proposal writing x x
2 Contact with stakeholders X
4 Lab Practical X
5 Proposal submission x
6 Proposal defense x

Table 1: Work Estimation

6.2 BUDGET BREAKDOWEN

No Description Sub-total ( Birr)

1 Premium 30,000
2 Software cost 20,000
3 Data collection cost 20,000
4 Transport 10,000
5 Total 80,000

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Table 2: Budget Estimation

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