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Chapter 2 Aggregate Demand and Fiscal Polcicy
Chapter 2 Aggregate Demand and Fiscal Polcicy
Chapter 2 Aggregate Demand and Fiscal Polcicy
CHAPTER
2
The Influence of Fiscal Policy
on the Economy
Outline
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Consumption
Consumption (C)
refers to the goods and services purchased by consumers.
Components
The spending by households on goods and services
It includes spending on: food, clothing, shelter, health,
education, etc.
Consumption
Determinants of consumption
Theory
The Life-Cycle Hypothesis (Modigliani, 1954)
The Permanent Income Hypothesis (Friedman, 1957)
Key determinants
Current income level,
Historical income levels,
Amount of asset ownership,
Expectation, etc.
Consumption
The consumption function
According to Keynesian, consumption is a function of current
disposable income
C = f (Yd)
In particular, it can be express as
C = c0 + c1 .Yd
c0 autonomous (minimal) consumption
c1 Marginal Propensity to Consume,
Yd disposable income
c1 = ∆C/∆Yd or c1 = C/Yd, 0 < c1 < 1
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Saving
Definition
is the amount of disposable income left over after consumption
it can be in the form of cash, bank deposit, life insurance, etc.
The saving function
S = Yd – C
S = Yd – (c0 + c1.Yd)
S = – c0 + (1 – c1).Yd
set s1 = 1 – c1 c1 + s1 = 1, 0 < s1 < 1
S = - c0 + s1.Yd
C = Yd
C,S 450
c0
Y0 Yd
-c0
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An example
A country with the consumption function
C = 200 + 0.75 Yd
The saving function is
S = - 200 + 0.25 Yd
Graph the consumption and saving curves ?
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Investment
Investment
The investment function
The reduced form of the investment function
I = f ( i, Y)
I = i0 + i1 . Y + i2 . i
i0 the autonomous level of investment,
i1 the marginal Propensity to Invest (= saving/GDP)
i interest rate
i2 the relationship between investment and interest rate
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Investment
The investment function
When interest rate unchanged, the investment function is
further reduced to
I = i0 + i1 . Y
Example
I = 100 + 0.2Y
I
I = i0 + i1.Y
i0
Government purchases
Government spending
(Government) purchases of goods and services
(Public) investment
Transfer payments
Loan payment, etc.
Determinants of government purchases
The size of the society
The size of the economy
Economic growth
The government’s decision, etc.
The government purchases function
G = g0
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Tax
Net tax revenue
… is the difference between tax revenue and transfer payments
net tax revenue = tax revenue - transfer payments
Determinants of tax revenue
The size of the economy (Y)
Tax rate
The (net) tax function
T = t0 + t1Y
T net tax revenue
t0 is the autonomous tax level,
t1 is the tax rate
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Export
Exports: the value of goods and services produced within the
country and consumed abroad
Determinants of exports
Income (the size) of the exporting country (Y)
Income (the size) of the rest of the world (Y*)
Exchange rate (E)
The export function
X = f (Y, Y*, E)
the effect of Y* on X is more important than that of Y
Y* and E are not determined within the country itself (exogenous)
X = x0
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Imports
Imports the value of goods and services produced abroad and
consumed in the country
Determinants of imports
Income (the size) of the exporting country (Y)
Income (the size) of the rest of the world (Y*)
Exchange rate (E)
The import function
M = f (Y*, Y, E)
the effect of Y on X is more important than that of Y*
E is not determined within the country itself (exogenous)
M = m0+ m1.Y
Aggregate demand
Aggregate demand is the total expenditure on final goods and
services in an economy
AD = C + I + G + NX
where
C = c0 + c1Yd
I = i0 + i1Y
G = g0
X = x0
M = m0 + m1Y
T = t0 + t1Y
AD = ?
Aggregate demand
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let
AD
AD0
45
°
Y1 Y0 Y2 Y
AD
Y0 Y
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY 29
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An example
An economy VN has spending functions estimated as follow:
C = 200 + 0,75Yd
I = 100 + 0,2Y
G = 580
T = 40 + 0,2Y
X = 350
M = 200 + 0,05Y
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AD
AD2
AD02
AD1
AD01
Y1 Y2 Y
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AD = C(Y – T) + I + G + NX
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AD P
AD2 G, T
AD02 P1
G, T AD1
AD2
AD01
AD1
Y1 Y2 Y Y1 Y2 Y
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AD P
AD1 G, T
AD01 P1
G, T AD2
AD1
AD02
AD2
Y2 Y1 Y Y2 Y1 Y
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Recall: I = i0 + i1 . Y + i2 . i
Expansionary fiscal policy AD Y
Y money demand
In money market: money supply unchanged, higher money
demand i
i I AD
So, the size of the AD shift may be smaller than the initial fiscal
expansion.
This is called the crowding-out effect.
AD P
AD2
G, T
AD’2
AD02 P1
G, T AD1
AD2
AD01 AD’2
AD1
Y1 Y2 Y Y1 Y2 Y
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Y = G . kG + T . kT
Y = G . kG (1 – c1)
Automatic stabilizers
Automatic stabilizers:
The tax system: in recession, taxes fall automatically,
which stimulates aggregate demand.
Govt spending: in recession, more people apply for public
assistance (welfare, unemployment insurance). Govt spending on
these programs automatically rises, which stimulates aggregate
demand.
AD = C + I + G + NX
AD = C(Y – T) + I + G + NX
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1961:
John F Kennedy pushed for a
tax cut to stimulate agg demand.
Several of his economic advisors were
followers of Keynes.
2001:
George W Bush pushed for a
tax cut that helped the economy
recover from a recession that
had just begun.
Due to these long lags, critics of active policy argue that such
policies may destabilize the economy rather than help it:
By the time the policies affect AD,
the economy’s condition may have changed.
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