THE

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STEPHEN bJY
A8J!R BOOKS
HOUGHTON MIFFLIN H1Rf6181
b=N * N< 1 h
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Fit MmerBook ed|t|on2009
Copygt 2008 by Suphen mer
All right reserved

Fo inraton about perssin to reproduce
selectio mmts book,wte U Permissios,
Hougton MnHamm Publishng Compay,
2r5 P Aene SomNYIYr 10003.
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Librr o n Ct-tn-blcatn Dta
mr,Srephen,date.
Te nuerati I Stehen Bar.
p.e.
Iudes bibliograhica refnces.
M 978-0-68-7846-8
. Matematca models-Sodaaspects. 2, Ha
beavior-Mateatica models. 3.Matematca
statistics-Data

rocessing.1. Tue.
Q0I.B352008 303.48'3-d2
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Pited i theUredSt+tesof Aenc
1LL ]0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION > 1
1 WORKER> 17
2 SHY?LT 41
3 TET > 67
4 BLOG G E T > 96
. 5 TE T T 0T lS T > 123
6 PAT lEN T > 154
7 LOVE R > 182
CON C LU S ION > 201
Acknowledgent zIg
Notes zzI
Sources and Further Readin
g
z]I
Jmc z]
+

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1
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THE N. U ME RAIl
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INTRODUCTION
IMAGI NE YOU
'
RE I N a ce, pcrhaps thc noisy onc l'm sit-
ting In at this momcnt. P y

ung woman at a tablc to your

rigtisgingonhcrlaptop.Youturnyourhcadandlookat
hcrscrccn.ShcsurIsmclntcrnct.Youwatch.
Hours pass. Shc rcads an onlinc newspapcr. You noticc
that shc rcads thrcc articlcs about China. Sh scouts movics
Ior Friday night and watchcs thc trailcr Ior Kn
g
Fu Pand.
Shc clickona ad thatpromiscstoconnecthcrtooldhigh
schoolclassmatcs.Yousitthcrctakingnotcs.Withcachpass-
ingminutc,you'rclcarningmorcabouthcr.Mowimagincmat
youcouldwatchI]O millionpcoplcsurhngat thcsamctimc.
That'smorcorlcsswhatOavcMorgandocs.
"at is it aboutromantic-moviclovcrsi" Morgan asks,
aswcsitinhisMcwYorkomcconadarkcningsummcrcr-
g
on.Thcadvcrtisingcntrcprcncurishushwithdctailsabout
ourramblingsonlinc. c cantraccthcpattcrnsoIourmigra-
tions, as iIwc wcrc swallows or humpback whalcs, whilc wc
movcfromsitctositc. Rccnuyhc'sbccomc intrigucdby mc
pcoplcwhoclickmostohcnona admt c rcntals.Aong
thcm,thclargcstgrouphadpaidavisittoonlIncobituarylist-
ings.Jhatmakcsscnsc,hcsay,ovcrthcpattcroIrainagainst
2 H N U M 8 A T |
thc wndOw. oOmcOnc dc, O yOu hy tO thc mncra and
rcnt a car. but t thcccOnd-argctgrOuQ that ha NOrgan
cratchngh hcad. KOmantc-mOvc Ovcr. Or Omc rcaOn
NOrgan cant tathom, Oad Ot thcm

ccm drawn tO a banncr

adtOrPMO KntPLar.
NOrgan, a chccry q]-ycar-Od, wcar h har Quhcd tO
thc dc, a t whcn hc wa young h mOthcr dQQcd a cOmb
ntO watcr, drcw t acro, and thc har]ut taycd mcrc. c
grcw uQ nLcarbcd, a ma tOwn n wctcrn cnnyvana
a hOrt drvc lrOm unxutawncy. Lvcry ycar On thc ccOnd
day Ot cbruary, hahay bctwccn thc wntcr Otcc and thc
vcrna cQunOx, a crOwd n that tOwn gathcr arOund a largc
cagcd rOdcnt t _rOggy trOm hbcrnatOn. hcy tudy thc
anma rcQOnc tO t Ow badOw. PccOrdng tO anccnt
Lctc Orc, that ngc bt Ot data tc thcm whcthcr Qrng
w cOmc Qucky Or hOd Odunt atc Narch. NOrgan ha
mgratcd a tat a can bc trOm uch IOQrcdctOn. Pt h
!cw1Ork tart-uQ,acOda, hc hrc tattcan tO track Out
Wandcrng On thccband bgurc Out Our ncxt mOvc. NOr-
gan wa a QOnccr n ntcrnctadvcrtngdurng thc dOt-cOm
bOOm, tartng uQ an agcn cacd zql)Kca Ncda. urng
thc but thattOOwcdhc tOundcd anOmcr cOmQany,acOda,
andmOvcdcamcyntO what hc awa thc ncxt bg thng:
hcQng advcrtcr QnQOnt thc mOt QrOmngcb urtcr
tOrthcrmcagc.
acOdacntrcbuncgOrgcOn data.bc cOmQany ha
truck dca wth thOuand Ot Onnc QubcatOn, trOm thc
Ne Hr Tmes tO Buiness wek. hcr tc aOw acOda tO
drOQ a bt OtcOmQutcr cOdc cacdacOOKc ntO Our cOmQut-
cr.h ctJacOda tracc Our Qath trOm Onc tc tO thc ncxt.
hc cOmQy tOcuc On Our bchavOr ad dOcDt bOthcr
bndng Out Our namc or Othcr QcrOna dcta .[hatmght
QrOvOkc a backah cOnccrnng Qrvacy.) butacOda can t
| N I 8 0 0 U C I | 0 N 3
carn Qcnty. ct ay yOu vt thc Boston Globe and rcad a
cOumn On thcJyOta ru.hcn yOuOOk atthc O cctOn
On PL. LOOd chancc yourc n thc markct tOr whcc. oO
aOOda htyOu at OmcQOntn yOurcb Wandcrng wth
a O ad. Lck On t, and acOda gct Qad by thc advcrtcr
-and gcan Onc mOrc dcta abOut yOu n thc QrOcc. hc
cOmQany harvct 2O bOn Ot thcc bchavOra cuc cvcry
day.
oOmctmc NOrgan tcam QOt grOuQ Ot cb urtcr
whO aQQcar tO mOvc n ync. hc chacngc thcn tO bgurc
Out what trggcr thctr mOvcmcnt. Lncc th ccat, thc ad-
vcrttcr can antcQatc Qcogc Onnc ]Ourncy-and Qrn-
kc thcr Qath wth]ut thc rght ad.h rcQurc rccarch.
akc thc curOu cOnncctOn bcmccn tan Ot r Jmancc mov-
c and tbc PamO Kcnt P Lar ad. O comc tO grQ wth t,
NOrgan and h cOcaguc havc tO dg dccQcr ntO thc data.
O car rcntcr artvcnargcrnumbcr trOma ccrtan t_c Ot
rOmancc mOvc, maybc Onc that takc Qacc n an cxOtc O-
cac: O mcmbcr ot th grOuQ havc Othcr tavOrtc tc n
cOmmOnJhcanwcrcnthctrngOtOncandzcrOthat
Our cOmQutcr cnd tOrth. Naybc thctattcwshOw that
thcaQQarcnt nk bcmccn mOvctan and rcntcr wa]ut
a tattca Qurk. Lr QcrhaQ NOrgan tcam w uncarth a
brOadcr trcnd, a cOrrcatOn bcmccn rOmancc and travc, ut
andwandcrut.hatcOudcadtOaKndOtadvcrtngn-
ght. n cthcr cac, NOrgan can Ordcr uQ hundrcd Ot tct.
th cach Oncbcc gcanattc btmOrcabout uadtar-
gct thc ad wth cvcr mOrcQrccOn. c taknganaymat
OnccranthrOughanadvcrtcrgt, andrcQacngt wthc-
cncc. crc h gunca Qg-Or grOundhog-and Wc nccr
tOQwOrkng tOr hm.
4 H N U M 8 A |
Hf I T COMES tO QrOducng data, wcrc QrObc. hOc
Ot u wcdng cc QhOnc, aQtOQ, and crcdt card mttcn
Our dgta dOscr cvcry day mQy by vng. uc mc. A
I Wrc On m Qrug mOrnng, VcrzOn, myOc QhOnc cOm-
Qany, can Qn mc OOwn wthn cvcra yard of th cae n
!cw)crcy.Nsac tctqmatmwcO cnatcd,QrObaby
tO OvcrcOmc thc bcct Ot thc Ortugucc wnc bOught at
nght at8:1y.hwa]utn tmctOrWatchng a cOcgcba-
kctba gamc, whO, aVO mght kOw, I tumcd of ahcr
mc brt ha occurty camcras caQturc tmc-tamQcd magc
Otmc ncar cvcry ba and cOnvcncncc tOrc. Pnd dOnt gct
mctartcdOn mycb wadcrng. hOc arcarcady a mat-
tcr OrccOrd tOr dOzcn Ot ntcrnct Qubhcr and advcrt-
cr arOundmcwOrd. LavcNOrgan]ut Onc n a argc and
curOu crOwd. atc n thcQzt ccntury, tO comc uQ wth th
cvc Ot rcQOrtng, thc L_at Lcrman gOvcrnmcnt had tO cnt
tcnOtmOuandof tctcna Qc.OdayWcQyOnOur-
cvcandcndccctrOncuQdatcm nutcbymnutc.
h a tartcd wth OOmQutcr chQ. \nt thc 1y8O,
thcc bt Ot cOn, brtng wth mOn Ot mcrOcOQc
trantOr, wcrct novcq butthcyvcgrOwnchcaQcrand
mOrc QOwcrm ycar by ycar, and nOw manutacturcr thrOw
thcm ntO vrtuay anythng that can bcncbt hOm a dab Ot
mart.hcyQOwcrOur cc QhOnc, thccOntrO n Our car,
Ourdgtacamcra, and,OtcOurc, OurcOmQutcr.LvcryhO-
day caOn, thcQackgc wc OQcnbrng mOrc chQ ntO Our
vc.hcccQc rccOrdcvcQntructOnmrcccvcand
cvcryOb mcy dO.hrctatdOu nOtc takcr. hcy rccOrd
thcmnutacOtourvc.ucnaOnc, caObtOt nlOrmatOn
ncary mcanngc. but Qut thc bt togcthcr,and thc Qat-
tcrn dccrbc Ourtatc and yQtOm, OurOutncat wOrk,
thcQamwctrcadmrOughthcmaandthcsuQcrmarkct.Pd
| N 8 0 0 U C | 0 N 5
thcsc strcams oI data circlc thcglobc. Scnda Iricnda smilcy
IaccIromyourccllphonc.ThatbitoIyourbchavior,thattiny
gcsturc, is instantIy rushing, with billions oI othcrs, through
hbcr-opticcablcs. lt'ssoaringuptoasatcllitcandbackdown
agaIn and chccking in at a scrcr Lrm in Singaporc bctorc
you'vcputthcphoncbackinyourpockct.Withsomanybits
hyingaround,thcvcryairwcbrcathcistccmingwithmotcsoI
inIormation.
lIsomconccouldgathcrandorganizcthcscHr-hungclcc-
tronic gcsturcs, our livcs would pop into Iocus. Jhis would
crcatc an cvcr-chging, up-to-thc-minutc mosaic oI human
.

bchavior. Thc prospcct is cnoug to makc markctcrs quivcr
withcxcitcmcnt.nccthcyhavcabcadonourdata,thcycan
dccodc our dcsircs, our Icars, and our nccds. 1hcn thcycan
scllusprccisclywhatwc'rchankcringIor.
But it sounds a lot simplcr than it

s. Sloshing occans oI
data, Irom c-mailsandporn downloads to salcs rcccipts, crc-
atc immcnsc chaotic wavcs. ln a singc month, Yahoo alonc
gathcrs lIO billionpicccsoIdataaboutitscustomcrs, accord-
ingtoa zoo& studybythcrcscarchhrmcomScorc. Eachpcr-
sonvisitingsitcs inYoo'snctworkoI advcrtiscrs lcavcs bc-
hind, on avcragc, a trail oIz, ;zo clucs. Piccc togcthcr thcsc
dctails, you mightthink,andourportraitsasshoppcrs, trav-
elcrs,andworkcrswouldgcIlinaninstant.Summoningsuch
clariq, howccr, is a slog.cn visitYahoo's hcad oI rc-
scarch,PrabhakarRagan,hctcllsmcatmostoIcdata
trovcisdigital garbagc. Hccmlsit"noisc"andsays matitc
casilyovc~hclmYoo'scomputcrs. lIoncoIRghavanssci-
cntistsgivcsanimprccisccomputcrcommandwhilctrawling
througYahoo'sdata,hccanscndthccompanysscrvcrswhir-
ring madlythroug thc noisc Ior days on cnd. Buta timcly
twcakinthcscinstructionscanspcdupthchuntbyaIactor
6 T H N U M 8 k T |
Ot ]O,OOO.bat rcduccs a 2q-hOur QrOccsstO abOut tbrcc scc-
Onds.s QOnt s tbatQcOQcwm mc rgbt smarts cansum-
mOn mcann_trOm tbc ncary bOttOmcss sca Ot data.ts nOt
ca, DuttbQcanbnd usthcrc.
Jbc OnqtOksWbO Oan makc scnsc Ot tbc data wc crcatc
arc crackmatbcmatcMs, cOmQutcr sccntsts, and cngnccr.
bcyKOwbOwtOturntbcbtsOtOurvcsntOsymbOs. y
tbsncccssary:magnctbatyOuwantcdtOkccQtrackOtcVc-
jbng yOu atc tOr a ycar.t yOurc m was n tbc tOUrtb
gtadc, yOu gO tOtbcstatOncry stOrc and buy a tatstackOtn-
dcx carCs.Jbcn, at cvcp mca yOu wrtc tbc dcrcnt tOOds
Onrcsb Oatds.Ncat Om oQnacb.aQOca Quddng.Lbccr-
Os.Pcr a tcw days, yOu bavc a grOwng Qc Ot card.bc
QrODcm , thcrcsnO way tO cOuntOr anayc tbcm. brc
]ustabuncbOtwOtds. bcscarc symbOstOO, OtcOursc, cacb
Onc rcQrcscntng a tbng Or a cOnccQt.but m arc ncar m-
QOssDctOaddOrsubtraOt, OrtOdrOQDtOagraQbustratng
atrcnd. uttbcscwOrdsnaQc, andthcyadduQtOwbattbc
sQcczstscaunstructurcddzta.hat`scOmQutcrtaktOra
bg mcs. P Dcttcr aQQrOacb wOudbc tOabc a tbc mcats
wtbM m tbc gtccn vcgctabcswtb , a tbc candcs wtb
C andsOOn. LncctbcwOrdsarcrcduccdtOs
)
bOs,yOuc
QuttbcmOnasQrcadsbcctandcacuatc, say,bOwmanytmcs
yOu atc mcat Orcandyn agvcnwcck. Jbcn yOu can mc a
graQbnkngyOur dcttOcbangcs nyOur wcgbt OrtbcQm-
QccOuntOnyourtacc.
bckcytOtbsQrOccssstObnd smartcs andQattcms.
cbumansdOtbsnstnctvcy. tshOwwcbgurcd Out, Ong
agO, Wbcb Qants tO cat and bOw tO tak.but wbc many
Ot uswctc tOcusngOn sQccbOcbzcngcs, Otbcr wcrc tbnk-
ng mOrc symbOcay. Qcturc cary bumans sung atOund
a brc.oOmc, naturay, arc ]Oustng tOr tbc bggcst Qccc Ot
| N 8 0 0 U C T | 0 N 7
mcatOr busy Wtb matng rtuas.but OdtO tbc sdc,a sccct
tcwarctOyngwtbstOncs, tbnkng,tcacbOt tbcsc Qcbbcs
rcQrcscntsOncmammOtb, tbcntbstOck ... Latcr, nOtcsO-
basLantzgnNumber: The Langage o/Science, tbcbOmans
uscd tbcr wOrd calul, mznng Qcbbc, tO gvc a namc tO
tbstbOugbtQrOccss. buttbcQcbbcwasusttbcstart. bccs-
scncc Ot cacuatOn was tO advancc trOm tbc Qbysca Qcbbcs
tOccr-bghcrrcamsOt abstractrcasOnng.
bat sccncc dcvcOQcd Ovcr tbc ccnturcs,and wc nOw
bavc cxQcrts whO arc cOmtOrtabc wOrkng wtb rdcuOusy
argcnumbcrs, tbcbOnsandtrOnstbattbcrcstOtusbnd
cmcrunmagnabcOrrrccvant. bcyarcbcrstOtbcsccncc
tbat tums Our cvcryday rcatcs ntO symbOs. P tbc data wc
QrOducccOntnucstOcxQOdcandcOmQutcrsgrOwrccntcssy
strOngcr,tbcsOmacstrOs gan n QOwcr.o Ot mcm madc a
bg sQasb n tbc atc IyyO by tOundng LOO_c.Or tbc agc
wcrc cntcrng,LOOgc s tbc marQucc cOmQany.ts but a-
mOst cntrcy uQOn mam,and ts vcry QurQOsc s tO bcQ us
bunt dOwndata.LOOgcs brcakthrOu@,wbOb transtOrmcd
a smQc scarcb cngnc ntO a mcda gant,was tbc dscOvcry
tbat Our Qucrcs-tbc wOrds wc qQc wbcn wc bunt tOr cb
Qagcs-arcOtmmcnscvauctO advcrtscrs. bccOmQanybg-
urcd Out bOwtOturn Our data nt
'
mOncy PdOtsOtOtbcrs
arc OOkng tO dO tbc samc tbng.Lata wbzzcs arc QOurng
ntO bOOgy,mcdcnc,advcrtsng,sQOrts,QOtcs.bQ arc
addngusuQ. carcbcngQuantbcd.
cn tbs QrOccss bcgan,a bat-ccntury agO,mc hrst
cOmQutcrs wcrc QrmtvcbOxcs tbc szc Ot a garbagc truck.
bcykcQt tbcrdstancctrOm us, Qurrngaway n ar-cOnd-
tOncd rOOms.Pt tbs cary stagc,tbc cOmQcxq Ot tbc bu-
mananma was tOOmucb tOr tbcm. bcycOudntcvcn bcat
us at cbcss.but n ccrtan numcrca dOmans,tbcy sbOwcd
8 I H N U M 8 k I |
promisc. P ca tcst invo|vcd consumcr crcdit. In tp;6, two
Stantord graduatcs, a mathcmatician namcd i|| air and his
cnginccr tricnd Ear| Isaac, O c up with thc idca ot rcplacing
loan omccrs with a computcr. Jhis hu|king machinc kncw
practica||y nothing, not ccn what thc applicants did tor a |iv-
ing. It ccrtain|y hadnt |carncd it thcyd gottcn a raisc or h|cd
tor divorcc. Lcgions ot human |oan omccrs, by contrast, wcrc
swimming in data. Jhcy ohcn kcw tbc tami|ics ot thc |oan
app|icants. Jhcy wcrc acquaintcd wth how much mc app|i-
cant had strugg|cd in high schoo| ad how his cngagcmcnt
had Iallcn through, probab|y bccausc o a drinking prob-
|cm it hc was anything |ikc his unc|c). Jhc |oan omccrs had
cnough dctai|s to writc socio|ogica| monographs, i| thcy wcrc
so inc|incd, about thc amiics in mcir towns. ut tbcy |ackcd
a scicntihc systcm to ana|yc tt a. Bankcrs dcpcndcd, tor thc
most part, on tbcir gut.
y contrast, thc computcritcd approach zcrocd in on on|y
a sma|| sct ot numbcrs, most ot thcm conccrning bank ba|-
anccs, dcbts, and paymcnt bisto. Barc boncs. air and Isaac
bui|t a company to an
a
|yc thc pattcrns ot thosc pumbcrs.
Jhcy dcvc|opcd a wiy to dctcrminc thc odds that cach cus-
tomcr wou|d dctau|t on a |oan. Lvcryonc got a numbcr. }hcsc
risk scorcs provcd to bc much bcttcr prcdictors than thc gut-
trusting humans. Most borrowcrs with high crcdit scorcs
madc good on thcir oans. ^nd morc pcop|c guahcd lor
thcm. Jbc machinc, ahcr a||, didnt discriminatc on thc basis
ot anything but numbcrs. It was cqua|-opportunity banking.
!ikc a |ot O!ana|yica| systcms, it was laircr. Its narrow scopc,
paradoxica|l,, rcturncd broad-mindcd rcsu|ts. Wat`s morc, a
|ot ot pcop|c turncd out to bc bcttcr bct than thc |oan om-
ccrs suspcctcd. Jhc mkct tor crcdt cxpandcd.

Sti||, thc computcr kncw its p|acc. It thrivd in thc wor|d
| N 8 0 0 U C | 0 N 9
ot numbcrs, and it staycd thcrc. Jhosc ot us who spcciizcd
in words and music and imagcs barc|y noticcd it. Yct ovcr thc
tollowing dccadcs, thc computcr grcw in powcr, gobb|ing up
cvcr morc oncs and zcros pcr mil|isccond. It got chcapcr and
smlcr, and it linkcd up with othcrs around thc wodd. It pro-
duccd jaw-dropping cmcicncics. Ad trom thc vicwpoint ot
thc humanitics crowd (inc|uding this history major), it sw-
|owcd cntirc tcchnologics. It supplantcd gcwritcrs and
movcd on, likc an impcria| torcc, to rout rccord p|aycrs and
hlm camcras. It took ovcr thc mighty tc|cphonc. in|y, in
mc IyyO, cvcn thosc ot us who had long vicwcd computcrs
icns hom thc bascmcnt wodd ot gcckdom startcd to makc
room tor thcm in our homcs and omccs. Vc lcarncd that wc
cou|d usc thcsc machincs to sharc our words and movics and
photos wim thc cntirc wodd.
In tact, wc had littlc choicc. Jhc old ways wcrc |augab|y
s|ow. ut thcrc was onc condition: wc had to rcndcr cvcry-
thing wc scnt, thc vcp stuh ot our |ivcs, into oncs and zcros.
Jhat`s how wc camc to dclivcr ou richcs, thc kcy to commu-
nications on carth, to thc mastcrs ot mc sybo|ic |anggc.
Now thcsc mathcmaticians and computcr scicntists arc in a
position to rulc thc intormation ot our livcs. I call thcm thc
Numcrati.
ON A SWELTERING summcr ahcmoon, Oavc Morgan sits
1n his Spartan omcc vcrlooking Scvcnth Avcnuc. Hc has thc
shadc drawn to kccp out thc hcat, and hc can`t hgurc out how
to turn on thc huorcsccnt light. Sitting in thc shadows, hc tclls
mc how markcting has changcd ovcr thc past gcncraion. Jra-
ditiona|ly, hc says, markctcrs conccntratcd on big groups ot
us. c wcrcn`t much morc divcrsc, trom thcir point ot vicw,
!0 T H N U M 8 k I |
than thc nc Ot Lcncra NOtOrs car: Ladac and buck
tor mc rch and wannabc, LhctOt thc mddc ca, On-
tac tOryOunghOthOt, and QckQ trucktOr tarmcr.hcy
ddnt nccd tO knOW much mOrc than tbat bccauc m

dccn-
tu Pcrcan tactOrc, whcthcr thcy wcrc QrOducng buc
]can Or Qcanut buttcr, Wcrc manumcturng ma Quanttc.
omacr, mOrc tOcucd run cOt tOO much mOn. ourc, ccr-
tan ncghbOrhOOd n cOata ctc attractcd ccccntrc whO
drOvc tOrcgn car and wakcd arOund n cdcrhOcn Or bc-
rct. but tor thc mOt Qart, wc atc, wOrc, and drovc wbat thc
ma-QrOductOnmctOrcchurncdOut, and wc carncd abOut
tthtOughthcmamcda.hmOdc, crcatcdn thc\ntcd
otatc, Qrcad n thc dccadc tOOwng Otd Nar acrO
LurOQcandtOmuchOtPaandLatnPmcrca.twaancm-
ccnt way tOrcach muOn Ot cOnumcr wth machnc-madc
gOOd.

Pvcrtng n th ndutra cOmQc, NOrgan ay, wa

mQc. YOu cut thc QOQuatOn ntO bvc Or b dcmOgraQhc
grouQ, bacdOnncOmc,gcndcr, andncghbOrhOOd,andyOu
advcrtcd :n thc magnc thcy rcad and on thcV hOw
thcy watchcd. n an agc Ot vrtuay ndtnguhabc QrOd-
uct, brand wcrc cruca.hha a changcd. n ;o ycar,
NOrganays,thrOughthcdatknc, wcvc gOnc trOm a cOm-
mand-and-cOntrO ccOnOmy to Onc drvcn by cOnumcr.
OwddthhaQQcn Ortartcr, cOmQutcrmadcthcrway
ntO mctOrc. h gavc manumcturcrs nc hcxbg. t bc-
cMcmuchcacrtOmcccrcaOrsOdatOcrcatcnuttcrOr
mOrccmOnybcnd.thamQccOmmand,OOmwcavng
a trQcd Qattcrn wtchcd tO Qad. h want much hardcr
than t tOr mc tO changc thc tOnt hOmmcO aQyrua
wttctbOhaQtcr.Pnd1tmcantthatndutrycOudQrOducc
thOuands Ot ncwVaratOn.Pt thc amc tmc, gObazatO
| N 8 0 0 U C 0 N !!
was dumping products trom a|| ovcr thc word practica||y on
our doorstcp. Joday, choiccs arc ncar|y |imit|css. inning in
this crowdcd markctplacc rcquircs tar morc than industrial ct-
hcicncy. Jhc trick now is to dclivcr to cac ot us thc prccisc
havor and tcxturc and co|or wc want, at just mc right pricc.
Consumcrs run thc show, Morgan say. It`s not control|cd by
manutacturing or distribution.
Jhis mcans mat markctcrs must scopc us out as individu-
a|s. nc approach wou|d bc to dcp|oy batta|ions ot psycho|-
og and |it majors armcd with c|ipboards to knock on our
doors. Jhat`s impractica|. Jhc scnsib|c way to study us is to
track and ana|yzc thc data wc ncvcr stop spcwing. And Mor-
gan is strctching bcyond that. Hc tc||s mc ot cxpcrimcnts his
tcam is dcvc|oping to monitor thc spark ot rccognition in tbc
brain as pcop|c Iook at on|inc ads. Jhc tcsts tocus on a brain
wavc ca||cd poo. Jhc L.S. Navy has run simiIar tcsts to scc
how pi|ots distinguish tricnds trom tocs in thc air.) It a poo
wavc hcats up within a traction ot a sccond ot a subjcct`s scc-
ing an ad, mc Jaqoda tcam W makc Uc casc that thc viccr
has not on|y lookcd at thc spot but has proccsscd it mcnt|y.
Jhc ncxt stcp: iguring out whic tc ot pcop|c proccss ccr-
tain tcs ot ads. Likc othcr Numcrati in a widc rangc ot in-
dustrics, Oavc Morgan is scrutinizing humans and scarching
tor hiddcn corrc|ations. hat do wc do, hc asks, that migbt
prcdict what wc`|| do ncxt:
HEN I TELL pcoplc about this book, thcy ohcn say, c`rc
just going to bc numbcrsl
Ycs, say, but wc`vc long bccn numbcrs. Jhink ol thc cnd-
|css row ot workcrs thrcading togcthcr c|cctronic cab|cs in a
Mcxican asscmbly pant or uc mousands ol soldicrs rushing
1 T M N U M 8 k T
into machinc-gun hrc at Vcrdun-cvcn thc b|isscd-out crowd
pushing throug thc turnsti|cs at a Gratcm| Ocad conccrt.
rom managcmcnt`s point ot vicw, a|| ot us in thcsc sccnar-
ios migt as wc|| bc nc|css and mcc|css. c`rc uttcr|y intcr-
changcab|c. Jurning u into simp|c numbcrs Vas what hap-
pcncd in mc industria| @c.Jhat wa ycstcrdays story
Jhc Numcrati havc much morc ambitious p|ans tor us.
orgct sing|c digits. Jhcy want to ca|cu|atc tor cach ot us a
bugc and co
g
p|cx mazc ot numbcrs and cquatious. Jhcsc arc
mathcmatica| modc|s. Scicutists havc bccn using thcm or dc-
cadcs to simu|atc cvcrything trom hccts ot trucks to nuc|car
bombs. Jhcy bui|d thcm hom vt co||cctions ot data, with
cQ piccc rcprcscnting a mct or a probabi|ity. Lach modc|
must rchcct, in numbcrs, mc physica| trum: its sizc and
wcight, thc charactcristics oI its mcta| and p|astics, how it rc-
sponds to changcs in air prcssurc or hcat. omp|cx modc|s
c havc thousands, or ccn mi||ions, ol variab|cs. Ad thcy
mus intcract with onc anothcr mathcmatica||y just thc way
th do in thc rca| wor|d. ui|ding thcm is painstaking work.
Ad somctimcs thcy hop. Jhc dramatic markt conv|sions ot
zoo8, tor cxamp|c, stcmmcd hom mu|q modc|s tbat g|osscd
ovcr thc comp|cxity-and thc risk-associatcd with rca| cs-
tatc oans.
Ocspitc such stumb|cs, today`s umcrati arc p|owing tor-
ward, with an cyc on us. Jhcy`rc a|rcady stitching bits ot our
data int

prcdictivc modc|s, and mcyrc just gctting warm

d
up. In mc coming dccadc, cach ot us wi|| spawn, ohcn unwt-
tingy modc|s ot oursc|vcs in ncar|y cvcry w
a
|k ot |itc. c`||
bc modc|cd as workcrs, paticnts, so|dicrs, |ovcr, shoppcrs,
and votcrs. n thcsc carly days, many ol thc modc|s arc sti||
primitivc, making us |ook |ikc stick hgurcs. Jhc u|timatc goa|,
though, is to bui|d vcrsions ot humans that arc just as comp|cx
| N I 8 0 0 U C I | 0 N
'
!J
wc arc-cach onc uniguc. Add a|| ot thcsc chorts togcthcr,
and wc`rc witncssing ( wc| cxpcricncing) thc mathcmati-
ca| modc|ing ot humanity. It promiscs to bc onc ot thc grcat
undcrtakings ot thc mcnty-hrst ccntury. It W grow in scopc
to inc|udc much ot thc physica| wor|d as mathcmaticians gct
thcir hands on ncw hows ot data, trom constc||ations ot at-
mosphcric scnsors to thc tccds trom mi||ions ot sccurity cam-
cras. It`s a para||c| wor|d that`s taking shapc, a |aboratory tor
innovation and discovcry composcd ot numbcrs, vcctors, and
algorithms. And you and I arc in thc midd|c ot it.
Wat wi thc Numcrati |carn about us as thcy turn us into
diting combinations ot numbcrs: irst thcy nccd to hnd us.
Say you`rc a potcntia| S\V shoppcr in thc northcrn suburbs
ot Ncw York, or a churchgoing, antiabortion Ocmocrat in A-
buqucrguc. Maybc yourc a |ava programmcr rcady to rc|ocatc
t Hydcrabad, or a jazz-|oving, Chianti-sipping Sagittarius
|ooking tor snugg|cs by thc hrcp|acc in Stockhom. Mcavcn
hc|p us: maybc you`rc cagcr to strap bombs to your waist and
cimb onto a bus. hatcvcr you arc-and cach ot us is a |ot
ot things-companics and govcrnmcnts want to idcnti and
|ocatc you. Considcr this: Goog|c grcw into a mu|tibi||ion-
do||ar scnsation by hc|ping us hnd thc right cb pagc. How
much morc va|uab|c wi|| it bc, in cvcry conccivab|c industp,
to hnd thc right pcrson: Jhat intormation is worth tortuncs,
and thc pcrsona| data wc tbrow oh draws count|css patbs
straight to our door. Lvcn il you bod back your nc, it`s
a cinch to hnd you. A Carncgic Mc||on \nivcrsiq study rc-
ccnty showcd that simp|y by disc|osing gcndcr, birth datc,
and posta zip codc, 8)pcrccnt ot pcop|c in thc \nitcd Statcs
cou|d bc pInpointcd by namc.
Jhc Numcrati a|so want to a|tcr our bchavior. It wc`rc
shopping, thcy want us to buy morc. At thc workp|acc, thcyrc
14 T H N 0 M 8 k T |
out to boost our productiviq. Ppaticnts, thcy want us ba|th-
icr and cbcapcr. P companics such as M d ^mazon roU
out car|y modc|s ot us, thcy can prcdict our bchavior and cx-
pcrimcnt with us. Jhcy can simu|atc changcs in a storc or an
omcc and scc how wc wou|d |ikcly rcact. Ad thcy can at-
tcmpt to ccuIatc mathcmaticm|y how to boost our pcrtor-
mancc. How wou|d shoppcrs |ikc you rcspond to a s:oorcbatc
on top-ot-mc -|inc Nikon camcras: How much morc produc-
tivc wou|d you bc at thc omcc il you had a s6oo coursc on
sprcadshccts: How wou|d your co||cagucs copc it rhc com-
pany c|iminatcd thcir positions or to|dcd thcm into opcra-
tions in angorc: Jhc Numcrati wi|| bc p|acing our modc|s
in a|| kinds ot sccnarios. Jhcy|| try out dihcrcnt mcdicincs or
advcrtiscmcnts on us. Jbcy|| scc how wc might rcspond to a
ncw cxcrcisc rcgimcn or a job transtcr to a distant division. c
dont havc to participatc or cvcn know that our mathcmati-
ca| gosts arc |aboring nigbt and day as |ab rats. c`|| rcccivc
thc rcsuIts ot thcsc studics-thc optimum coursc- hc|pm|
suggcstions, prcscriptions, or marching ordcrs.
Jhc cxp|odng wor|d ot data, wc`|| scc, is a giant |abora-
tory oI human bchavior. t`s a tcst bcd tor thc socia| scicnccs,
tor cconomic bchavior and psycho|og. Kcscarchcrs at com-
panics such as Microsoh ad Yoo arc busy hiring scicntists
trom bcds as divcrsc as mcdicinc and |inguistics to hc|p thcm
grapplc with thc bits ol our livcs that arc pouring in. Jhcsc
strcams ot digit data dont rccognizc ancicnt boundarics.
Jhcyrc dchncd by gorithms, not discip|incs. Jhcy can casi|y
cross-tcrti|izc. Jhis mcans that psycho|ogists, cconomists, bi-
o|ogists, and computcr scicntists can co||aboratc as ncvcr bc-
torc, a|| ot thcm sihing tor answcrs through count|css dctais
ot our |ivcs. |ack Linhorn, thc chicI scicntist a a Ncw York
mcdia start-up ca||cd Inlorm Jcchno|ogics, prcdicts tbat thc
|
| N T 8 0 0 U C T | 0 N !5
grcat discovcrics ot thc twcnqhrst ccntury will comc trom
hnding pattcrns in vast archivcs ot data. hc ncxt |onas Sa|k
will bc a mamcmatician, hc says, not a doctor.
IT` S MI DS UMMER gridlock in Manhattan. y c timc I rcach
thc rcnch bistro in Chclsca, Oavc Morgans a|rcady sitting at
a tablc by an opcn window, rcading c-mails on his Jrco. Hc
sccms distractcd as wc cat, glancing trom timc to timc at thc
handsct. |ust as thc waitrcss drops thc dcsscrt monus on our
tablc, his machinc bccps. Morgan 1ooks at it, apologizcs, and
hurrics Ointo thc summcr hcat. rom my scat at thc win-
dow, I watch him angling across thc strcct and trotting uQ mc
tar sidcwalk.
.
Jhc ncxt timc I scc Morgan, it`s ctobcr. Hc`s movcd
trom Jacodas Scvcnth Avcnuc omccs and is ncwly instlcd
at thc hcadquartcrs ot AL, high abovc tbc skating rink at
Kockctcllcr Ccntcr. I mcct bim at thc door ot what hc calls
); Rock, ad wc wk to a ce. Hc tclls mc that on thc day
wc had lunch, hc and his invcstors agrccd to scll Jacoda to
ALL. Jhc rcportcd pricc was sz,; million. Jhc lumcrati,
it should bc notcd, tcnd to mc a lot ot moncy.) Morgan is
working, at lcast tor thc timc bcing, as a scnior advcrtising
cxcc at ALL. c ccrtainly docsn`t nccd thc sa|ary. ut hc says
hc`s tcmptcd to stick around. y tapping ALLs rcsourccs and
its miions ot uscrs, hc says, hc can cam cvcn morc about
cb surtcrs and targct us with cvcr grcatcr prccision. It`s a
long proccss, hc says. c`rc just at thc bcginning.
I ask him about thc corrclation hc told mc about carlicr,
thc onc bctwccn romantic-movic tans and ^lamo Rcnt A Car.
It takcs a momcnt tor him to rccall it. h ycah. Jhcy wcrc
oh thc charts. Oid his rcscarchcrs, I ask, cvcr omc up with
!6 T H N U M 8 k |
an cxplanation tor it? Hc nods. 1t had to do with wcckcnds.
It was ^|amo ads promoting cscapcs that attractcd thc attcn-
tion ot thcsc cb surtcrs, hc says. Jhc romantic-movic tans
bookcd |cisurc rcnta|s, |argc|y tor wcckcnd gctaways. crhaps
thcy wantcd to act out thc kinds ot sccncs that drcw thcm to
thc cincma. anncrs tor wcckday rcnta|s apparcnt|y |ch thcm
co|d.
Jhis brings Morgan to a dihcrcnt insight, onc that in-
vo|vcs not just who wc arc but how wc tcc|. No doubt p|cnq
ot romantic-movic tans, hc says, rcnt cars tor busincss trips.
ut cr rcading thc rcvicw ol thc |atcst cand|c|ght-and-
kisscs movic, thcy`rc thinking about gctaways to apa Va||cy
or Nantuckct. ork, at |cast for thc momcnt, is tar away. Jhc
cha||cngc ahcad is to map not just our tastcs and prctcrcnccs
but our shihing moods. It you think about it, hc says, thc
movics and music that pcop|c c|ick on tc|| us a |ot about thcir
statc ot mind at that momcnt. Ac thcy happy: Arc thcy rc-
bcctivc: Hc considcrs thc trovc ot mood mcssagcs that pour
through our cc|| phoncs. Jhat`s a ncw tronticr and a potcntia|
go|d minc ot bchaviora| data. Hc gocs on about thc advcrtis-
ing possibi|itics ot music sitcs inc|uding ALs, whcrc thcy
can scc us c|ickng on chccrm|, sad, or inspirationa| songs.
`m not so surc about that. t I c|ick on a happy song, I
say, maybc I`m just |ooking tor a pick-mc-up. Morgan shrugs.
Hc won`t know unti| hc docs morc rcscarch. Jhis mcans morc
ot our data to co||cct and morc numbcrs to run. |ust thinking
about it makcs him smi|c. utsidc thc s[ grows dark, and
rain scattcrs thc crow at Rockctc|Icr Ccntcr. P Oavc Mor-
g hcads back to his bchaviora| |aborato at ); Rock, hc
covcrs his hcad with his hands and sprints.
C H A P T E R 1
Wrker
T` S RUSH OUR in Ncw York. stop by Hank stand on
q)th Strcct, spcnd a buck and a quartcr tor a swcctcncd cot-
tcc, carry it to thc c|cvator, and ridc big up in a Midtown
s|crapc. A big pi|c ol Wl Steet Joural' uscd to wait at
rcccption, onc tor cach ot us. Mo morc. Mow wc`vc bccn in
structcd to rcad thc papcr ou|inc. ith that, cvcn morc oI our
work movcs onto thc computcr.
pry thc |id oh thc cohcc. I ca|| up Yahoo, rcad my pcr-
sona| mai|, ad te a quick rcp|y to M -ia trom my sistcr.
Jhcn chcck thc hi|adc|phia papcrs tor bascba|| ncws. Jhc
hi||ics got crushcd . . . t`s :on.u., thc cohcc`s a brown stain
on thc bottom ot thc cup, and `m just gctting to thc Wl
Stet Joural on|inc. Or maybc `m not.
mcc workcrs havc had p|casant |itt|c staing routincs
torcvcr, and it hasnt mattcrcd much. thcr |aborcrs havcnt
bccn so |uc| A ccntury ago, mcn carrying notcbooks and
stopwatchcs madc thcir way into mctorics and startcd to mcas-
urc thc movcmcnts ot workcrs. Jhcy turncd industria| pro-
duction into a scicncc, which rcachcd its zcnith in |apancsc
auto p|ants. Jhcy pcrlcctcd Statistica Qaaity Contro|, and
!8 T H N U M 8 k I
today th ana|yc cach spray gun, cach mrnacc, and,
by cxtcnsion, cach workcr, minutc by minutc. It any onc ot
thcsc c|cmcnts is missing a bcat, te c ad|ust it on thc spot.
Many omcc dwccbs, by comparison, |uxuriatc in privacy \n-
. .
|css wc happcn to bc snoring |oudcr than usua| in our cubi-
c|c whcn thc boss stro||s by, our work habits rcmain our own
|ituc sccrct. c`rc scorcd on rcsu|ts, not proccss. Sc|| a housc,
win a tria|, wow thc boss with c|cgant |incs ot soharc codc,
and wc`rc go|dcn.
Jhings arc changing, though. In thc past dccadc, much ot
thc work wc do has movcd away tro

thc pi|cs on our dcsk,
m c notcbooks and ncwspapcrs and ost-its stuck to thc door.
It h migratcd right onto thc computcr, which is now |inkcd
to a nctwork. c`rc ticd to a workmatc cquippcd with a phc-
nomcna| mcmory, an uncanny scnsc ot timc, and no |oya|q
to us. Hc works tor mc boss, who c mcasurc our chorts
with no nccd tor a notcbook or a stopwatch. Jhc computcr
wi||rat on us, cxposing cach onc ot our on|iuc sccrcts with-
out a nanosccond ot hcsitation or rcgrct. At work, pcrhaps
morc than anyhcrc c|sc, wc arc in dangcr ot bccoming data
scrts-s|avcs to thc intormation wc producc. Lvcq kcytrokc
at thc omcc c now bc rccordcd and mathcmatical|y ana-
|ycd. cdont own thcm. It our bosscs wantcd to, thcy cou|d
ordcr up an c-mai| chart tor cach ot us. It wou|d disp|ay thc
words wc writc most ohcn, in proportiona||y sizcd tonts. You
cou|d on|y pray that movies or beer wou|dnt show up biggcr
on your chart than thc mcdicincs you scl| or thc stocks you
rccommcnd. Jhat on|inc vcrsion ot thc Wll Steet Jourl?
ur cmp|oycrs c to||ow which artic|cs wc rcad. Jhcy can
a|so buy soharc to crcatc maps ot thc pcop|c wc commmi-
catc with -our socia| ncmorks. rom thcsc, thcy c draw
powcm| conc|usions about our productivity, our happincss
n 0 8 K 8 !9
at wOtk,and Our rcatOns Wm cOcagucs. |ust Wbat knd Ot
tcamQycrarc yOu, anyay:NcrOsOhcvcnbcdn zoo6tO
Qatcnta tccbnOO@tOmOntOrtbcbcattratc, DOOdQrcssurc,
_zvanc skn rcsQOnsc,and taca cxQrcssOns Ot OmOc WOrk-
crs.Jbc dca,accOrdng tO thcaQQcatOn,s tbat managcrs
wOud rcccvc acrts t wOrkcrs wcrc cxQcrcnOng bc@tcncd
trusttatOnOrstrcss. oucbsystcms arcntbc cary stagcsOtrc-
scarcb.but cVcn wtb tOdays tccbnOO@,t yOur cOmQany s
nOt scOurn_tbc Qattcrns Ot yOur DcbavOr at tbc kcyoard,
ts Ony bccausct dOcsntcbOOsctO-Or basntgOttcnarOund
tO tt yct.

y wOud cOmQancs ntrudc kc tbs: Ncry smQy tO

bOOst Our QtOductvty. Or ccnturcstbcyvc cOnccntratcd On
rcsutsDccausc,kc tbcncwsQaQcradvcrtscrsnOw rusbngtO
Lavc NOrgans Omccs at JacOda,tbcy bavcnthad tbc mcans
tOmOntOranddsscctWbatWcactuaydO.POwUc tOOsarc
at band.LOnt tbcy bavc a rcsQOnsDty tO sbarcbOdcr tO
QuttbcmtOuscandQumQuQQrOductVty andQrObts:Jbats
tbc way tbcy sct.

POw as OOk at tbc wOrkQacc tbrOugb tbct QurQOscm

cycs,m arcady tccng a tracc Ot nOstaga tO r tbc dc mO-
mcnts and wastcm rOutncs tbat Drgtcn my day.ottng
n my q]rd-bOOrOmcc, O uQ YOuJuDc and cck On a y
NOrQbng lugvdcO. PanmatcddOgdanccsand sngs a r-
dcuOus sOng. wOndcr wbat tbat nvcstmcnt Ot q] sccOnds
Ot uttcr nOnscnsc cOud QOssby say tO my DOsscs abOut mc.
s tbcrc a OOrrcatOn Dcwccn NOrQbng lug watcbcrs ad
Qrzcwnnng ]Oumasm: It's dOubtm.Pnd ts a mattct Ot
tmcDctOrc managcmcnt starts rccOrdng sucbDcbavOr . Jbc
vcry tbOugbtbsmcwthsucbrcgrcttbatcckOntbcvdcO
OnccmOrc, nOt sO muO tOaugat tbc dOg as tOOuQtbc
On-tbc-jObhccdOmt rcQrcscnts.
20 T H N U M 8 A |
n a latc spring morning l drivc ovcr thc Jappan Zcc
Bridgc,acrossthcwidccxpanscoIthcHudson.Jhcnl hook
lch,awayhomcYorkCityandupintomcIorcstsoIWcst-
chcstcrCounty,tothchcadquartcrsoI lBM'sJhomas|. Wat-
son Rscarch Laboratory. !t sits likc a mrtrcss atop a hl, a
long, curvd w
@
oI gass rchccting thc couon-ball clouds
boating abovc. l havc a datc thcrc with S
@
cr Jakriti, thc
Syrian-born mathcmatician who launchcd mc on mis cntirc
projcct. Hc was mc onc who dcscribcd to mc carly on how
his tcam
q
as building mathcmatical modclsotthousandsoI
lBM's tcch consultants.Jhc idca, hc said, was to piccc to-
gcmcr invcntorics oIalloI thcir skills and thcn to calculatc,
mathcmaticaly, how bcst todcploythcm. l camc away Irom
thatmcctingconvinccdtha

iIakiticouldmodclpcoplcas
workcrs, thcncvcntly wc'd also be modclcd as shoppcrs
and paticnts -in short, in a wholc rangc oI our activitics a
humans. Mowl'mgoingbacktohndouthowJakitiandhis
tcam plan to turn lbM's workcrs into numbcrs-and what
thlldowiththcmandwithus)iIthcysuccccd.
Jakriti,aslim|c-ycar-old
q
ithwidc,languidcycs,opcns
thc door oI his small omcc. Hc wcars a rugby shirt tuckcd
tigtIyintoblucjcans.Hc'sonaconIcrcnccclbutavcsmc
in. OnoncwloIhiswindowlcssomccisawhitcboardcov-
crcdwt mathcculationsthatmcannothingtomc.Jakriti
is quict on thc O , just saying, A hum, a hum." look to
mcothcr wall, which is dccoratcd with an clcctricity gnd oI
McYorkandPcnnqlvani

.Jhis isanartIIact IromJakriti's

prciousliIc, whcnhcuscdmathtomodcl cunksoIthcold
cconomy,mingslikcstcclmandpowcrplants.Storyhasit,
Ja
g
iti say ahcr hchangsup, that thc originJmitiswcrc
warriors who marchcd Irom Saddams nativc city, Jikrit, in
lraq. HisbranchoIthcIamily, hctcllsmc,cvcntuallyscttlcd
n 0 8 K 8 !
\
inSyria.A topcnginccringstudcntinOamascus,akritiwon
a cllowship in thc mid-:p8os to study at thc Univcrsity oI
Michigan. HcIcllhcadovcrhcclsIormath. ln:pp6, by thcn
aPh.O.,hclandcdarcscarchjobatlBM'sIablcdWatsonRc-
scarchCcntcr,ahalI-houtdrivcnorthotMcwYorkCityhis
sonoIikritwartiorsnowwalkcdongthcgodsoImath.
Jakiti'sspccialty wasstochasticanalysis.Jhisisthcmath
that attcmptstoticprcdictionstotandomcvcnts.Sayitrains
inucson Irom zcro to six timcs pcr month, and youlistcn
to mc wcathcr rcport, which has bccn right :p oI thc past
zo days, only thrcc timcs a weck. nc otyour thrcc jackcts
is sucdc. What arc thc chanccs it'll gct drcnchcd tomorrow:
lmagincthatsamcqucstionwithoncthousandvariablcs,and
you`vcstcppcdintothcstochasticworld.
A gcncration ago, a crcw oI math whizzcs lcd by Myron
Scholcs and FischcrBlackIocuscdthcirmastcry oI probabIl-
ityonhnancc,whcrcthcycculatcdriskandputpriccsonit.
JhislcdtoapanoplyoIncwhnancialptoducts,Itomoptions
tohcdgingstratcgics.ltwasamathrcvolutionOnW Strcct.
hcmathcmaticianswcrc rcplacinghunchcs,wholcsalc, with
scicncc.akriti says that by thc timc hcrcachcd lBM, many
oI mc samc math tools wcrc bcingrchttcd Ior othcr indus-
ttics.
Likccncrg.akritidocsntlikctobroadcastit,buthclch
Big Bluc in :ppp Ior Houston, whcrc hc workcd Ior Enron.
ackmcn,Entonwnotonly innovatingthckndoIcotpo-
ratcIraudthatwouldlcadtoitscollapsc. ltalsoranaworld-
cIassmathcmaticslaboratory.Jhccntircworld,asEnronsaw
it andwassoontodcmonsttatca toovividly)wasawashin
unccrtainty.PcoplcnadttillionsoIdollatsridingonchancc.lI
youlookcd atwcathct as a topsy-tury matkct, Iorcxamplc,
thcmcpatkswctcbcttingonsunshinc,Iamctsontain.Entons
H N U M 8 k T
mathtcamcouldcalculatcthcwcathcrrisksandthcndcvclop
indcxcs and hnanci options Ior cold Ironts and dog days.
Evcryonc could hcdgc thc wcathcr, and Enron would tum
thIsIntoabusincss.Civcncnoughmathcmaticians,itsccmcd,
cvcrychanclcmcntinthcworldcouldcvcntuallybcquanti-
hcd,modclcd,andturncdintoahnancialinstrumcnt.
akiti'sstocksoarcdatEnron.Ad whcnlBMcallcdin
latc 2OOO, thcyohcrcdhim thctopjobinstochasticanalysis.
akritijumpcd. HcgotoutoIHouston,ittumcdout,barcly
a ycar bcIorcEnron'scollapsc. Hisncw Iocus at lBM would
bccvcry bita hardto quanri[andptcdicta hashhoodsin
thc Mojavc Ocscrt or thc lcomingcorporatc bankrupt in
Houston.akritiwouldbcmodclin
Q
humanworkcrs.
l tcllJakitithatbcIngmodclcddocsn'tsoundlikcmuch
mn. l picturc an l-k owing boss anticipating my cvcry
movc,pcrhapsscndingmcanc-mailwiththcsimpIcmcssagc,
"Nol" bcIorc l cvcn gct up my ncrvc to ak Ior a raisc. But
akitiIocuscsonthcpositivc.lmagincthatyourbosshnally
rccognizcsyourstrcnghs,hcsays-maybconcs thatarchid-
dcncvcntoyou.Jhcnhc"putsyouintosituationswhcrcyou
willmrivc."
lIyourpcrIormanccisstcllar,companicscvcntuallycould
wicld your mathcmatic modcl a a spccimcn oI workplacc
ONA. Ad thcycoulduscit, inascnsc, tocloncyou. lmag-
inc,saysAcksandraMojsilovic,oncoIakiti'smodclcrs,that
thc company has a supcriorworkcr namcd|oc Smith. Man-
agcmcnt couldusctwoorthrccothcrs]ustlikc him, orcvcn
adozcn. nccthccompanyhasbuiltrichmathcmaticpro-
hlcsoIthcircmployccs,itshouldntbctoohardtosihthroug
thcm to idcntiq thc cxpcricnccs or routincs that makc |oc
Smith so good. "!I you had thc mll cmploymcnt history,
you could cvcn computc thc stcps to bccomc a |oc omU,
n 0 8 K 8
J
bc ay. NOt Ot tb, Ot COutc, WOud nVOVc ttanng QtO-
gtam, nOt gcnctC manQuatOn. Pnd tbc tca )Oc omtb may
baVc ntutVc matt Ot a KnaCk tOt dcgn that ]ut CannOt bc
tcQCatcd. ``m nOt ayng yOu Can tc-Ctcatc a Ccntt, Ot a
Qantct, Ot a muCan, NO]OVC ay. `but tbctc atc a Ot Ot
]Ob tOc tbat atc tcay COmmOdtc. Pnd l QcOQc tutn Out
tO bc QOOty dcgncd tOt tbcc ]Ob, tbcy bc tcCOnbgutcd,
btt matbcmatOay and tbcn n tc.
Ncn oamct JaKtt t dOWn tO dcbnc Onc Ot b CO-
caguc n ymbO, bc OOK tO cCOnOmt and ndutta cn-
gncct tOr gudanCc. JbcyVc bccn mOdcng COmQcX ytcm
Ot dcCadc. tCOnOmOay, bc tcgatds u a COmQOncnt n a
abOt matKct. Lut Vauc tc and ta Wtb dcmand. n tbat
cnc, Wc bt ntO tbc bnanCa cQuatOn dcVcOQcd On a
ottcct. Pnd Wbcn Wc`tc cmQOycd, Wbat dO Wc dO c WOtK
Wtb COlcaguc tO bud tbng and Ctcatc Vauc. oO, bOcd
dOWn tO numbct, Wc batc at cat a tcW matbcmatCa QtOQ-
cttc Wtb tbc COmQOncnt tbat atc unOadcd cVcty day at
bN` bugc mCtOQtOCcOt taCtOty uQ tbc tOad, n bk,
cW YOtK. OOK at u Onc Way, and Wc`tc tOCk. Lban_c tbc
QctQcCtVc, and Wc`tc maCbnc Qatt.
Lt COutc, tb n`t cnttcy tat c`tc mOtc tban tOCK
and Qatt, Qutc a bt mOtc. Jat tbc btt tO admt t. t`
bcCauc Wc`tc O dbctcnt-O batd tO QtcdCt-tbat Jatt
nccd a tcam Ot qO b. L. `, tmm data mnct tO ngut, tO
dcCodc Out bcbaVOt and out ttat. bcy CataOg Wbat tbcy
bnd-caCb Ot Out gctutc, caCb Ot Out k -ntO ybO
tbat a COmQutct Can dgct. `tVctytbng mut bc tumcd ntO
numbct, aKrt ay.
Lnc Ot JaKrt` Cbacngc tO bcQ bN dcVcOQ a t-
OnOmy Ot tbc K Ot t ]OO,OOO cmQOycc. Ln t baanCc
hcct, bN ay Out tbc Vauc Ot many Otbct act, ttOm u-
24 H N U M 8 k T |
QctCOmQutct tO WVcng PctOn dcK Oat. cn tratc-
gt at tbc COmQany atc bgutln_ Out Whctbct O c a dV-
On Ot nVct mOtc mOncy, tbcy QOtc OVct tbcc b_utc. Jh
KctOb Out tOy and gtm OcnatO. Jbcy dO tbc numbct.
ut bOW dO tbcy dO tbc numbct On yOu and mc Yc, '
e KnOW bOW uCb Wc COt. Png tbat` OOuntcd n
CuttcnCy ht ncaty ntO tbct cQuatOn. but What dO tbcy
gct tOt tbat mOncy OW c tbat bc mcautcd Nbat` OUt
QOtcnta tbctc bc a @ut Ot QcOQc Kc u n mc nct
tc ycat P bOttagc annct Wnt anWcr. JO Catty Out
tbcc OaCuatOn, m baVc tO tutn u ntO Omcthng tbat,
kc bnanca nttumcnts, c bc mcautcd OVct tmc. C-
tutc an aVctagc WOtKct n an ddutty tbat` Cbuggng aOng
at t uua Qacc. Pt tbc tK Ot ccmng COd-bcattcd, ct` gVc
tbat magnaty abOtct a tanK bacd On h Outtcnt Vauc. C
bm a L. t tbc ndutty bcat uQ ad mOtc uCb WOtKct atc
nccdcd, b Vauc tc, mayc tO L+ Ot cVcn b. tbc QCK uQ
mOtc Kt Ot tatt WtKng batdct, tbc amc tbn_ baQQcn.
tOO tc. but t tbc ndutty Qungc ntO tcCcOn and
COmQanc but dOWn OQctatOn, Out WOtKct bnd bmct n
a utQus matKct. tOCK Qummcts, dOWn tO a L Ot cVcn
an c`tc a tOO fHa Wtb m dynaC. OtKct bnd
]Ob n bOOm tmc and gct ad of n umQ. but Ohcn tbc
QtOCc ba tUc tO dO Wtb a WOtKct` Vauc. n Omc COmQa-
nc, tbc ast WOtKct btcd atc tbc btt tO gct tbc bOOt. Jbat
tcWatd OngcVty, nOt Vauc. bOmctmc t` tbc ttcndy WOtK-
ct WhO utVVc, Ot cVcn wotKct WbO baVc a Kncc-btcakng
OOun n tbc mOb. Jbcc atc mcttC a CaVcman COud gtaQ.
bc umctat baVc a ddctcnt Qan atOgcthct. but hOW W
mcy OaCuatc Out WOttb OW W tbcy tum u ntO Quantb-
abc bnanCa nttumcnt
Jbc btt tcQ tO btcak u dOWn ntO ttlc QcOc. Jbcc
atc tbc ObataCtcttC Wc batc Wtb Otbct, tbc bt Olu tbat
w 0 8 K 8 5
c bc Qucczcd ntO COumn and agncd numbct. LOm-
Qutct, ahct a, atcnt yct CaQabc Ot aQQtcCatng u a tbc
ntcgtatcd and COmQcX bcat mat cO JOtOy WtOtc abOut.
YOu mgbt baVc tbc nOct mc On cattb and WOndctm taQ-
QOtt Wtb COcaguc. Naybc yOutc mcan, Ot mc Kc On-
On. Jbctc` nO tOOm, at cat n tbc caty VctOn Ot bN`
cmQOycc databac, tOt tbOc QctOna dcta. oOmc Ot tbcm
may bc CtuCa. bcy may tcQtccnt tbc tca yOu. but tbc data-
bac undcttand u atgcy a a mOaC Ot resume' tcm, ttOm
]Ob CatcgOtc tO matcty Ot tbc COmQutct anguagc L++ tO
hucn n Nandatn.
t` QatbctCay baOW. LOndct Wbat baQQcn Wbcn yOu
t dOWn n a tOOm tO, ay, bammct Out a ncW matKctng Cam-
Qagn Wtb bVc COcaguc. Jb tc n tbc anaO_ WOtd. YOut
bt1n, by tat tbc mOt OQbtCatcd COmQutng dcVCc KnOWn
n tbc unVctc, QrOCcc an atOnbng tangc Ot data. t Qct-
OcVc a WtnKcd nOc, a dcWay ganCc, a bnt O atCam, a
bab Ot ddan. t tc tOgctbct mc and Ound, and t nK
tbcm Wtb Otbct mcmOtc and cOn ttOm tbc Qat. Pdd uQ
tbc WOtd and OOK and gctutc, and yOut btan QCK uQ
tbOuad, Ot cVcn mOn, Ot gna cmanatng ttOm tbOc
bVc QcOQc. n b bOOK Stangers to Ourselves, mOmy On
Ot tbc \nVctty Ot Ntgna nOtc tbat a data ttcam n ttOm
Out bVc cnc, tbc btan gtaQQc Wtb mOtc tban II mOn
dQatatc QcCc Ot ntOtmatOn Qcr cCOnd. JOday` COmQutct
cannot badc ucb comQcXty. bN` matbcmatca ytcm
may Can caCb Ot u tOt a mctc bVc Ot tcn data QOnt. `Vc bad
dO_ mat dg dccQct ntO buman natutc. OWcVct, OnCc Wc`tc
tcQrccntcd a bt O matb, tbc maCbnc c dO Omctbng u-
Qctbuman. t c mb and matCb u n a ttaCtOn Ot a cCOnd
Wtb a mOn, Ot IOOmOn, Otbct. bat Cac QtOm ncW
cmccncc -and ngbt.
magnc Wbat bN` bcan COuntct W bc abc tO dO
5 H N U M 8 A T |
Oncc a OttbccOmQayswOrkcrs arc Oasshcdbythcr sks.
bcystart runnng cVcr mOrcdctacdnumbcrs on wOrkcrs
-]ustas tbcydO OnOtbcr nVcstmcnts. bcy` attcmQt tO ca-
cuatctbchnancarcturntOrcacb]Ob catcgOryandcacbsk,
wbctbcr t` )aVa QrOgrammcrs Or Omcc managcrs. b
cOmQarcQrOductVtyncVcr-gtcatcr dcta,wOrkcr bywOrkcr
md rcgOn by rcgOn. bs w bcQ tbcm dccdc wbcb ] Obs
tOscndOdsbOrc. Ad tbcy bc abc tO mcasurc QrOductVq
bascd On dOzcns OtyardstOK. Ow QrOduOtVc arc wOrkcrs
n yOur catcgOry as tbcy rcacb agcs q, O, and O Lncc tbc
cOmQany bas tbOsc numbcrs, tbcy mgbt bc abc tO caOuatc
nOt]ust tbc Qrcs0nt Vauc OtwOtkcrs but asO wbat tbcy Dc
wOrtbdOwntbc rOad.
bs w takc sOmc gcttng uscd tO. O datc, wc`Vc man-
agcd Our buman rcatOns n an Od-tasbOncd cOOnOmy, Onc
argcy ackng D numbcrs and mctrcs. Or tbc mOst Qart,
wbctbcrwc`rc OOkng tOr a taVOr OrcVcn a matc, Wc`Vc bar-
tcrcd.hcrc`swbat`QrOVdcyOu,bcrc`swbatwantnrcturn.
OtbngIO mcasurc, ttc tO cOunt. Orccnturcs, cVcn cOm-
mcrccWOrkcdtbsway. YOuwOntgVc mctbOsctwOgOatstOr
tbs tabc OwabOutt tbrOw nabammcrbs QrOccss s
QanmyncmOcnt. tac bartcrcastOr mOrcbag@ng.Na-
ucs huOtuatc. O surQrsc, tbcn, mat bartcrngrctrcatcd ntO
tbc bs as sOOn a sOcctcs camc uQ wtb a numcrc symbO
tOrVauc-mOncy bswas atrumQb Ottbc carcst umc-
rat. tQrOVdcdamatbtOO tO cOunt andcacuatcand cOm-
Qarc a wOrd Otddcrcnt tbngs. Ad t cVcntuay cd tO cX-
Qandcd cOmmcrcc, gOba markcts, tbc numbcrs bazng On
tbc Qud crysta sOrccns OttbcOjO otOck tXcbangc. Ow
akrt and bs tcam arc turnng us ntO symbOs sO tbat wc
c takc Our Qacc n ncwbuman markcts.
|ust tbc way brOkcrs run QOrttOOs Ot ]unk bOnds Or
w 0 8 K 8
cmcrgng markct stOcKs, tbc umcrat arc drOQQng us ntO
QOrttOOs OtQcOQc. t`s baQQcnng n ndusttyahcr ndustry.
PamO KcntP Lar, tOrcXQc, buys aQOrttOO OtrOmancc-
mOVcOVcrs1rOmacOdaand tbcncOmQarcsts QcrtOrmancc
tO tbat OtOtbcrs. takrt and bs tcam managc tO rcducc
bN`s wOrk IOrcc ntO a cObcrcnt QOrttOO Otsks -sOmc-
mngacOmQutcrcOudundcrstand-bNcOudsOOndcQOy
ts abOr n muOb tbcwaytbat tmanagcs ts hnanOa nVcst-
mcnts. bat`sQrccscywbataktbas nmnd.
bsbas bccn mc casctOr ycars n bascba. Ln my sbct
baVc a mt cnQcOQcda stng bacba statstcs On cVcry
ma]Orcaguc Qaycrsncctbc I88Os. but nOwmcbacbau-
mcrat arc scnganddcngtbc datancaryas mtas tbcNM
otrcct Quants [QuanttatVc anaysts, tbat s) . bcyrc cOmng
uQ wtb ncw mctrcs-ncwways tO mOdc tbc Qaycrs matb-
cmatCay. Lnc ncw statstc s OacdWA wns abOVc rc-
QaccmcntQaycr. LnaQuantstccacd bascbarOsQcctus,
`m OOkng at a QrOhc OtLarOs bctran, tbc ccgant sWtcb
bttcr wb
_
QatrOs ccntcr hcd tOr tbc c1OrkNcts. n atc
zOO(, bc sgncd a scVcn-ycar cOntract tOr $IzO mOn, Or an
aVcragc Ot$I8 mOn a ycar. Pcr a stcar zOO scasOn, bs
WA stOOd at IO. . bat mcans tbat t tbc Ncts sWaQQcd
bm tOr aCOmmOdqrcQaccmcnt Qaycrmakngalaugabc
batmOn aycar, tbc tcam wOud
y
nncaryII tcWcrgamcs
n aIz-gamc scasOn. acbaddtOnaVctOry, by tbcsc num-
bcrs, would cost thc Ncts $I. z million-an afordable price
tOr arcbc 1Ork tcam. butwbctrMsWAbcncary
as bgb n zOIO, wbcn bc`s a c

caj ]] ycars Od oady, basc-

ba

rOsQcctVc says nO. t Qrcdcts tbat bctran`s Pby

tbc dccadc`s cnd W dccnc tO ]. and tbat bc` bc wOttb
Ony$j. 8m1On-tar css tba bc` carn.
Is that calculation rigt? It's anybodys gess. Does the
28 M N U M 8 A |
PacOOunt tOr bctran ntagbcs, a tbOsc mmcasur-
abcQuatcs-tbcbcQmbattngtQsbcgVcsarOOkcOrtbc
waybcdstracts tbc Otbcr tcams Qtcbcr as bc danccs Odbrst
basc nOmcrwOrds,do tbcnumbcrsrcbcct rczttynaOtts
cOmQcXty'hcn tbcyL sbOrt, cVcn n tbc statstca y cX-
ubcrant rcam Otbascba. OktbcwrOng numDcrs, and tbcy
c c. bat`s nO sccrct. but]usttrymangtbat atgumcnt tO
yOut bOsswbcnyOurnumbcrs sumQ.
COntcss tOakttbathndmcQrOsQcctOtbcngscOrcd
kc LarOsbctrana btuncttng.t`sncc, `VctOund, tOVc
andwOrKOdtbcdatabasc, n tbctOg@bartctccOnOmy ruc,
t`s a rca hcadacbc 1Or bcan cOuntcrs. but tbc unmcasurcd
unVcrsccanbcatOrgVngQacc. omcs,trcndsbQs,andcVcn
artmy sQun yarns a cOunt tOr sOmctbng mcrc-maybc a
smdgcnOt] ObsccurqOrcVcnarasc.Orkcrs namcasurcd
wOrkQaccarcOntbcrOwnadmOrckcytOrscOrwtb
tbcrnumbcrs. rccOustcwOttbcmbaVcscVcn-ycarOOntra

ts
kc LarOs bctran. And lOr tbcsc Quanthcd masscs, tbc sc-
cutty Ottbc bOck tadcs away. Pcr a, cacb y O ncOm-
Qctcnt wOrkcr wbO surVVcs n tbc matbcmatcmy asscsscd
wOrkQacc rcQrcscntsamarkctncmccnQ. LnOctbcmcasurc-
mcnts arc n Qacc, tbcsc wOrkcrs wm Qrcsumaby Qungc n
Vauc Or bc Qurgcd, ]ust kc an undcrQcrtOrmng stOCk u a
QOrttOO.
bnkyOu Oan managc tc n a QOrdOO OtWOrkcrs t
cOudbctbcbcst

tbngmatcVcrbaQQcncdtOyOu.oOmcstOcks
sbOOt tbrOugb tbc rOOt, anO ccrtanWOrkcrsw tOO. but bc-
ngdrOQQcdntOaQOrttOOsOnytbcbcgnnng.akrtand
bs tcam arcarcadybudngtbc ncXtstagc, nwbcbwc` bc
undcrstOOdandDtcrQrctcdntar grcatcrdcta.
w 0 8 K 8 9
ON A NOVEMBER mOmng n zOO, bN`s carman, oam
amsanO, stcQQcd uQ tO a QOdum n tbc

Orbddcn LQ
n tbc bcart Otbc]ng. c bad an annOunccmcnt tO makc.
amsanO was drcsscd n bs standard busncss sut and wOrc
bs tradcmark bOrn-rmmcd gasscs. but as bc madc bs way
tO tbc Qodum, sOmctbng abOut bm OOkcd nOt Qutc rca,
mOrckcacartOOn.JbswasnOttbcrcaamsanO,tturncd
Out, but a aVatar rcQrcscntng bm. Ad tbc Orbddcn Lty
bcVstcdwasadgta smuatOn. bNtccbncansbad but
tandmOuntcdtwtbntbcVrtuawOrdcacdoccOndLtc.
|Ournasts wbO wantcd tO bcar amsanO`s annOunccmcnt
gtumbcdabOuttbsVcnuctOrwccks.bcybadtOsgnuQ tOr
occOnd Ltc andattcndas mcrOwn aVatars.
by stakng bN`s buc hag n a smuatcd wOnd, am-
sanOwasQOntngtOtbccOmQanys mturc.Prcady cngnccrs
arOund tbcwOnd usc c
g
mQutcrsmuatOns tO dcsgnccctrc
tutbncs and Dnc-tunc tbc trMc hOws n major ctcs. bc
waybN sccst,cntrcbusncssQrOccsscswOncdayDcsm-
uatcd. cturc managcrs, tbcr bsts grasQng]OystcK, tryng
OutncwndustraaQQrOacbcs andcabratngOQcratOns as t
tbcyWcrc runnng tbcr Own vcrsOn Otmc VdcO gamc bc
oms. takrt and bs tcam mastcr tbcr ncXt assgnmcnt,
tbc aVatars On tbc scrccnw bc tbc matbcmatca mOdcs Ot
bN`swOrkcrs.
bs QrOccss s ]ust bcgnnng, and akrt arcadyWcs
nOstagc tOr tbc Od days, wbcn t was macbncs tbat wcrc
mOdccd. bcyrc smQcr. Nacbncs dOnt cbcat, tcud, QOut,
dcVcOQscrOusdrnkngQrObcms,OrgctdcQrcsscd.Pndtb
dOnt cOmc uQ wtb grcat and transtOrmatVc dcas. akrt
gOcs On tOr a wbc abOut tbc maddcnng randOmncss Ot
bumans.
ntcrruQt tO askabout mcmatbnVOVcd. 1 QOnttO mc
30 T H N U M 8 k 1 |
Whtc bOad COVctcd Wth tOtmua ad nOtatOn, Omc Ot
thcm naKn_ uQ and dOWn tO maKc tOOm tOt Othct. `Nat
atc yOu WOtKng On hctc [oOmc Ot thcc nOtatOn atc ncW
tO mc.)
c htu_. aktt, Kc many umctat, tcnd tO dOWn-
Qay mc COmQcXty Ot thc tOtmua hc Ctbbc O cbOttcy.
c tc]cCt thc nOtOn that hc and h COnttctc dtaW thct a-
_Otthm and cQuatOn tOm a ma_Ca tOObOX. att Ot tb
mOdcty. but JaKtt aO ha mc COnVCtOn that cVcn thc
ntty-_ttq Ot tOOhatC CaCuu WOud bc Ccat tO Outdct t
Wc ]ut at t and Qad attcntOn. c tatt tO cXQan Onc Ot
thc tOtmua. hcn hc tOQ. t thc human that atc hatd tO
h_utc Out, hc nt. `Nath thc cay Qatt.
Ot dcCadc, bN tccatChct haVc bccn ttantOtmn_ b_-
_ct and b__ct QcCc Ot thc COmQany bunc ntO math.
hc CcnCc tbcy uc, KnOWn a OQctatOn tccatCh, Wa bOm
dutn_ Word Wa . LctmaD ubmatnc, KnOWn a \-bOat,
Wctc attaOKn_ COnVOy ad nKn_ Ot Ot hQ. How hOud
mc OOnVOy be dcQOycd, thc mathcmatCan Wctc aKcd, tO
mnmzc thc damac Wa t bcttct tO ttaVc n lat_c _tOuQ,
cCOttcd by many dcttOyct Lt WOud mact Onc bc hatdct
tOt mc\-bOat tO ttaCK dOWn
Nam WhZc at thc \. o. Pntubmatnc Nattatc LQcta-
tOn KccatCh LtOuQ [PoNLKL) but mathcmatCa tcQtc-
cntatOn Ot thc COnVOy. Jhcc Wctc mOdc, and thcy OQct-
atcd Wthn a ct ot COnttantCOndtOn mQOcd by thc
tca WOtd. hc hQs COudnt mOVc tatct than a ccttan Qccd,
tOt cXamQlc, and tbcy had tO Cty cnOug tOOd and mc tO
tcaOh thct dctnatOn. hcy had tO tcct Ccat Ol Ccbct_.
hc mathcmatOan aO had tattC On thc \-bOat thc
zc Ol thc hcct, thc tan_c Ot thc ub, thc dcadnc Ot tbct
mc. \n_ tb ntOtmatOn, mcy COud mOdc thc naVa
w 0 8 K 8 J!
Wat. LaCh Vcc Wa nKcd tO Othct by numbct, by thc QtOb-
abty mat Omcthn_ _OOd, bad, Ot nddctcnt WOud haQQcn
tO t. hcc dcct n thc Otm PtantC cXtcd n thct mOdc
a a Wcb Ot tattCa tcatOnhQ. Pthc tccatChct tnkctcd
Wth thc dcct n thc mOdc, tbc Odd Ohm_cd. hc ASWORG
tcM Wa abc tO CaCuatc that iat_c COnVOy Wth b_ cCOtt
Wctc _nhCanty atct. hcy dctctmncd hOW tat dOWn tO
cnd dcQth Chat_c tO ndCt thc mOst dama_c On cncmy ub.
P thc \.o. ay Qut thcsc tOtmua ntO QtaCtCc, thc attt-
tOn Ot thc COnVOy hQ dtOQQcd. ohQmcnt tcaOhcd btt-
an. by thc cnd Ot thc Wat, mathcmatCan Wctc un_ mlat
mcthOd tO bOOt thc cmCcnQ Ot ant-atCtah dctcnc and
mc UcQOt.
aKtt tcn_ mc abOut Onc Ot mc _ant Ot thc hcld,
LcOt_c antz_, Whcn hc ]umQ tO h tcct, tcaChc h_
On a hct tOt a b_ tcXtbOOK, and tatt dQQn_ thtOu_ t.
`antz_ dd thc mathcmatC Ot matta_c, hc ay. `waybc
t Omcthn_ yOu Can uc n yOut datn_ ChaQtct. antz_,
catn, tc_atdcd mutQc cXua QMtnct a Vatabc, and hc
aucmQtcd tO QtOVc that mOnO_amyat cat ltOm thc COO-
hcadcd QctQcCtVc O an OQctatOn tccatChctycdcd, bct-
tct tcut man QOy_amy. akt dOcnt hnd thc dcta n

hc
bOOK. Naybc COud hnd t On thc cb, hc ay. hat tutn
Out tO bc a CnCh, thOugh thnK t atc tO ay that antz_
tudy, Whc taCnatn_ tO thc Pumctat, ch thc nttutOn
Ot matta_c at_cy untOuOhcd.
but Outdc Ot mattmOny, h nducnOc Wm u cVcty
day n Iyq], thc bctKccy-ttancd mathcmatCan Camc uQ
Wth thc O-Cacd mQcX a_Otthm. A a_Otthm nOth-
n_ mOtc than a tcCQcan Otdctcd ct Ot COmmand. h
Onc Wa a tcCQc tO _udc ntc_cnt dcCOn makn_. htm-
ct Wmtcd tO KnOW WhCh t_c Ot ccd tO Qant n a QattCu-
JZ H N U M 8 A |
at O, Ot t tccmakct WOndctcd Whcthct tO ha COa On
ttuCK Ot bat_c, OQctatOn tccatChct had anWct. hcy
]ut nccdcd thc numbct, thc OOnttants, and thc _Oa. \n_
antz_ a_Otthm, thcy COud hnd thc QOnt Whctc thc Ob-
]cCtVc, Whcthct t nVOVcd dOat Ot tOnna_c, tcaChcd t zc-
nth, t OQtmum QOnt. hcn thcy COud CaCuatc, WOtKn_
baOKatd, hOW tO COmc uQ Wth that tcut. OWn a OQt-
mzatOn, th QtOOc nOW gudc O_tC mdQannn_ and
ncwOtK dc_n n muCh Ot thc mOdctn WOtd. t yOu Want
tO hy tOm O P_c tO PcYOtK, taVcOCq OQumza-
tOn QtO_tam hg at _htnn_ Qccd thtOu_h IO,OOOQObc
tOutc and hnd thc ODc that W maKc mc mOt cnc tOt yOu
and thc mOt mOncy tOt taVcOCty and t Qattnct [QtOht
Onc Ot t COnttant) . Ntaty Qannct OQtmzc hcOOQtct
tOutc OVct nut_cnt hOtbcd n taQ. Pnd Whcn yOu mac a
Cal On yOut Cc QhOnc, an OQtmzatOn QtO_tam ChOOc thc
bct QathWay Ot tOWct tO COnVcy thc _na.
b8OK Whcn antZg Wa Quttn_ thc hna tOuChc On h
a_Orthm, bN tccatChct Wctc atcady QtcQatn_ tO aQ-
Qy OQctatOn tccatOh t tbct OWn bunc. hcy had thc
mOmct Ot a tct tOt t: bN maVc uQQy Chan. O bud
t tcnOWncd OmCc maChnc [WhOh ddnt yct nCudc COm-
mctOa COmQutct) , HN bOu_ht QaO and taW matcta
ttOm uQQct a OVct thc WOtd. atutaQ thcc Wctc a ma-
jOt cXQcnc. tthc cqmQany OOud uc th ncW math tO Ot_a-
nzc t a, thc aVn_ WOud dtOQ ttaght tO thc bOttOm nc.
hc math WOtKcd. n taCt, bN Wa abc tO tutn th
QattCuat KnOW-hOW ntO a bunc. hc COmQany cXQctt
hcQcd Othct cOmQanc OOnVctt thcr OWn OgtO ntO math
and thcn OQtmzc thcm . h Whctc thc tO tutn ndc
Out, a bt kc tbat dtaWn_ by N. L. LCbct, Whctc thc attt
hand dtaWn_ tct n mc Qat OOuQc Ot dcCadc, bN
w 0 8 K 8 JJ
tOc mOVcd hOm manuactutng tO sctVccs. hc cOmQany
nOW scs mOtc cXQcttsc tban macbncty. t unOadcd ts Qct-
sOna cOmQutct dVsOn tO Lbnas LnOVO n 2OO], and bN
LOba octVccs has grOWn ntO a $qO bOn busncss. oO t
bNs cXQctts Wctc tO OQtmzc tbct suQQy cban tOday, U
WOud baVc tO mOdc and hnc-tunc tbcmsclVcs. bats Qtc-
cscly Wbat aktts tcam s busy dOng.
)ust tbnk Wbctc tbs cOud cad. cVc sccn, Wtb suQQly
cbans, bOW tbc cOmQany uscd tsct as a abOtatOty t mas-
tctcd tbc QtOccss tOt tsct and tbcn sOd tbc cXQcttsc tO Otb-
cts. Ow tbc cOmQany s mOdcng ts WOtkcts. t tbs lcads
tO bg gans n QtOductVq, dO yOu tbtnk tbat cQcttsc Wll
rcman Ockcd uQ nsdc bg uc dODt. magnc mathc-
matca mOdclcts attVng at tbc dOOts Ot yOut cOmQany Onc
day, ctbct as a QbaanX Ot buc-Cad cOnsutants Ot QctbaQs
cncOdcd n a Qccc Ot sOhatc. bct tOcus W bc On yOu.
SITTI NG I N HI S sma Omcc, Onc buc-]cancd cg ctOsscd
OVct mc Otbct, oamct aktt cOntcsscs tO mc tbat bcs nct-
VOus. cant bamc bm. ms assgnmcnt s tO cOnsttuCt dc-
tacd matbcmatc mOdcls Ot ]O,OOO Ot bs cOcagucs. Nctc
nOt takn_ abOut smQy Qacng wOtkcts and thct ]Obs utO
tbc knd Ot batc-bOncs taOnOmy Wc dcsctbcd catct. bats
cOmQcatcd cnOugb. bc gOa bctc s tO butd cnutc mOd-
cs, cOmQctc Wth a QcrsOns Qutks, day cOmmutc, and acs
ad cncmcs. bcsc mOdcs m
g
bt Onc day ncudc Whctbct
tbc WOtkcts cat bcct Ot QOtk, bOW sctOusy tb takc mc oab-
bam, Wbcmct a bcc stng Ot a Qcanut saucc cOuld ay tbcm
OW. O dOubt, sOmc Ot tbcm tbtVc ccn n tbc fty ar n
bc]ng Ot Mec Lty Wbc Otbcts Wbcczc. t sO, tbc mOdcs
WOud cVcntuay tncudc tbs dcta, amOng cOuntcss Otbcts.
akttsjOb s tO dcQct bcsb-and-bOOd bumans as matb.
34 T H N U M 8 A |
tt s nOt gVcn tO bOd tOtccats. but t bs systcm s
suOccssml, bctcs DOW t wlWOtk: Otutc an bN managcr
wbO gcts an assgnmcnt tO scnd C tcam Ot hVc tO sct uQ a cl
Ocntct n Nana. obc sts dOWn at tbc cOmQutct and flOut
a tOtm. ts aOst lkc bOOkng a VacatOn Onlnc. ohc Quts
n mc datcs and cc On mcnus tO dcsctbc tbc ]Ob and tbc
sklls nccdcd. ctbaQs sbc stQuatcs tbc dcal budgct tangc.
bc tcsults cOmc bac, tccOmmcndn_ a Qattculat tcam. P
tbc sklls atc tcQtcscntcd. Naybc tbtcc Ot tbc hVc QcOQlc baVc
a hstOty Ol WOtkng togctbct smOOtbly bcy a baVc Qass-
QOtts ad lVc ncat atQOtts Wm dtcOt b_ts tO Nanta. Lnc
Ot tbcm cVcn sQcs JOg. LVctyng lOOKs hnc, cccQt tOt
Onc lnc tbats b@l_tcd n tcd. bc budgct. ts $qO,OOO
OVctl bc managct sccs mat mc cOmQutct atOtcCt On tbc
tea s a Vcttablc umnaty a guy wbO gcts Wtttcn uQ n
tbc ttadc Qtcss. outc, bcs a y8. ] Qctccnt ht tOt tbc ]Ob, but
hc cOsts $I,OOO an bOut. ts as t sbc sbOQQcd tOr a Wcckcnd
gctaWay n at ad WOund uQ Wtb a QcntbOusc sutc at tbc
bU.
mmmm. bc maagct asks mc systcm tOt a chcaQct M-
cbtcct. cW OQtOns COmc baOk. Lnc s a ncw 2y-ycat-Old
OOnsutant bascd n nda WbO cOsts Only $] Qct bOut. bat
WOud ccHy Qatcb tbc bOlc n tbc budgct. \ntOttunatcly
bcs Only a 6y Qctccnt ht tOt mc ]Ob. otll, bc c bandlc t, aC-
cording to the computer, if h

gcts wO wcck of training. Lan
tbc ] Ob bc dclaycd
h s managcmcnt n a WOrld tunby Pumctat . bN
sccs t, mc cOmQany bas lmc COcc. bc WOrk tOtcc s toO
bg, tbc WOtld tOO t and cOmQlcatcd tOt managcts tO gct
a gtQ On tbct WOtkcts tbc Old-mbOncd way-by takng tO
QcOQc WhO kOW QcOQlc WbO knOW QcOQlc. Otd Ot mOutb
s tOO tOg@ and sOW tOt tbc gOba ccOnOmy ctsOna cOn-
n 0 8 K 8 J5
ncctOns atc tOO cOnsttctcd. Nanagcts nccd tbc zQ Ot autO-
matOn tO uncartb a cOnsutant n cW Lcb, ] ust tbc Way a
gcnctatOn agO tbcy Ocatcd a sbQmcnt Ot cOndcnscts n O-
Qcka. Ot tbs tO WOtk, tbc cOnsutant-]ust kc tbc cOndcns-
cts -must bc tcQtcscntcd as a scrcs Ot numbcts.
O Qut tOgctbct tbcsc QtOcs, at tcQurcs mOuntans
Ot tacts abOut cacb cmQOycc. c bas uncasbcd a sQuadtOn
Ot b. L. s, ttOm data mncts and statstCans tO antbtOQOO-
gsts, tO cOmb tbtOugb WOtkcrs data. ctsOnnc hcs, Wbcb
ncudc annua cVauatOns, atc Oh mts at bN. but Qtact-
cl y cVcty Otbct bt Ot data s mt gamc. ohng tbtOugb tc-
sumcs and QtO]cct tccOtds, tbc tcam caD asscmbc a QtOhc
Ot caOb WOtkcts sks and cXQctcncc. Lnnc cacndats sbOW
bOW cmQOyccs usc tbct tmc and WhO mcy mcct Wtb. by
ttaOkng tbc usc Ot cc QbOncs and bandbcd cOmQutcts,
akts tcscarcbcts may bc abc tO maQ tbc WOtkcts mOVc-
mcDts. La tccOtds and c-mas dcbnc tbc sOca nctWOtK Ot
cacb cOnsutant. O dO tbcy cOQy On tbct c-mas O tbcy
scnd bnd cOQcs tO anyOnc bcsc bddcn mcssagcs cOud
QOnt tO tbc gtOWtb Ot ntOtma nctwOtks Wmn tbc cOm-
Qany. bcy may sbOW tbat a mdcVc managct s Qucty lcad-
ng an mQOttant gtOuQ Ot cOcagucs -and tbat bs bOss s
Out Ot tbc OOQ. Naybc tbOc wO sbOud sWtOh ]Obs.
bc ntctQtctatOn Ot Out sOca nctWOtks s an cXQOdng
hcd Ot tcscatcb, ttOm bN tO tbc tcttOt-ttaOkcts at mc a-
tOna occurty Pgcn n Ott Ncadc, Naland. Lnc cad-
ng ab s at Latncgc NcOn \nVctsty, n ttsbutgb, Wbctc
a QtOtcssOt namcd tbccn Latcy s budng an cnttc sOcal
ncwOtk cmQtc Wtbn tbc cOmQutct sOcnccs dcQattmcnt.
cn mcct Wtb Lat, sbc bas ]O gtad studcnts ] ammcd
ntO ] ust a bandm Ot bascmcnt Omccs. bcytc anayzng tbc
ncworks Ot cOntagOus dscascs, suOb as Psan hu. btc
J5 T H N U M 8 A T |
cOmQarn_ tbc dynzmcs OtddcrcntctwOrks ntbc Nddc
tast.
atc tbssOcanctwOrkanayssdVugcabOutwOrk-
crs at bN Or cscwbcrc LOts. otartwtb c-mau Lacy`s grad
studcnts can tccd a cOmQutcr a Ota cOmQanys c-mas OVcr
a
_
crtan QcrOd Ottmc. bcy Qractcc wtb tbc c-mas cX-
cbangcq durng mctrantc dyng mOntbs OttnrOn. Kccascd
as cVdcncc n tnrOn!ras, tbcyVc bccn dsscctcd cVcr snOc
bysOca nctwOrkrcscarchcrs arOund tbc wOnd. Larcys sy-
tcm nOtcs tbc scndcrs Otc-ma, tbc tmc tbc mcssagcs wcrc
scnt, and tbc rccQcnts. tbOut cVcn rcadng tbc cOntcnt
Otbc c-mas, a sOharc QrOgram bcr tcam bas but draws
VarOus dagrams Ot tbc Or@zatOn. Lnc Ot tbcm sbOws
wbO cOmmuncatcs wtb WbOm. cn sbc sbOWs t tO mc,
tOOKs athrstkcasQagbctt cOOk-Od.bc OrganzatOn-t
yOu c ca ttbat -tcaturcs ddcrcnt tangcd Qcs, cacb Onc
wtb tsOwnsctOtmcatbas. ongc nOOdcs ctcnd ttOmOnc
QctO tbc Otbcrs. tacb mcatba, naturay, rcQrcscnts a Qcr-
sOnwtbntbc OrganzatOn, and tbcQcsrcQrcscntgrOuQsOt
QcOQcwbOcOmmuncatcbcaVywm OncanOtbcr.
LOgca cnOu@. bc hnancc QcOQc, tbc gas QcOQc, mc
cga tcam, tbcy a cOmmuncatc wtbn tbcr grOuQs, wtb
an OccasOna c-ma tO anOtbcr dcQartmcnt. but t`s nOt tbat
smQc. occ tbs grOuQ hcrc Larcysays, QOntngtO aOus-
tcr Otmcatbas n a swrng mass. t`s an ntOrma ncmOrk,
sbc says. t tOOk sbaQc as LnrOn cOaQscd. Jbs grOuQ scnt
Out abOut Onc tbOusand mcssagcs a day and bccamc a clcar-
u@Ousc tOr nsdc dOQc. ttbc

cOmQanybadbccn studyng
msnctwOrk,cXccutVcsmgbtbaVcntcrQrctcdtas an nsur-
gcncytaKngsbaQc. nascnsc,twas,snccagrOwngncwOrk
OtcmQlOyccs was tradng cVcr mOrc drc rcQOrts and rumOrs
abOut a cOmQanyn crss -and bcQng Onc anOmcr QrcQarc
tOrtcahcrLnrOn.
n 0 8 K 8 J
LOtQOtatOns cscWhctc, ncudng bN, ca dtaW a
knds Ot nsgbts ttOm tbct cmQOyccs nctwOtks. b can
maQ cacb QctsOns ctcc Ot cOntacts. bcy can asO sQOt Out-
cts, QcOQc WbO atcnt cOmmuncatng mucb Wtb anyOnc.
hcsc cmQOyccs, Latcy says, atc WOttb sctutnzng: tbcy
may bc dcQtcsscd Ot abOut tO caVc, Ot cVcn cOnsOttng Wtb
tbc cOmQcttOn. Vcn WtbOut tcadng a tbc c-mas, mc
cOmQany can autOmatcay sQOt tbc mOst cOmmOn WOtds mat
ctcuatc Wmu cacb gtOuQ. bs Qctmts tbcm tO maQ nOt
Ony cacb WOtKcts cOntacts but asO tbc natutc Ot tbOsc nk.
bcy can asO scc bOW cOmmuncatOns sbh Wtb tmc. WO
WOtkcts may dscuss sOhatc QtOgtammng ucsday tbtOugh
tday but sQcnd mucb O tbct tmc On NOnday scndng
c-mas abOut mc Qast Wcckcnds tOOtba gamcs. bc ncXt
bg stcQ, Lat says [a bt OmnOusy) , s tO takc tOOs kc
tbs and tc tbcm tO scbcdung and QtOductVq QtOgtams.
tcad tbs tO mcan tbat Wc OmOc WOtkcts atc Wc On Out Way
tO bcng OQtmzcd.
oOund scaty t may dcQcnd On Wbctc yOutc Qctcbcd On
mc tOOd cban. cmcmbct tbc $I,OOO-Qct-hout cOnsutant
WbO amOst gOt dsQatCbcd tO tbc hQQncs mc ddnt cnd
uQ gOng, and nstcad, m bNs scbcmc, bc tcmancd On tbc
bcncb. aktt smcs. Jbats Wbat Wc ca t, bc says.
tbnk tbc tctm cOmcs hOm sQOtts. bc QucstOn, Ot cOutsc,
s bOW Ong bN Wants tO baVc tbat bgb-Qtccd talcnt sttng
On tbc bcncb. t tbctc snt any WOtk tO ] ustq bs mmcnsc
tacnts, sbOudnt tbcy Qut bm On sOmctbng csc, ] ust tO kccQ
bm busy
Ot ncccssaty, says aktt. |Ob satsmctOn s Onc Ot bs
systcms cOnsttants. t WOtkcts gct angty Ot bOtcd tO tcats,
tbct QtOductVty s bOund tO Qummct. bc autOmatc man-
@ct kccQs tbs n mnd |n a mannct Ot sQcakn_. P yOu

mgbt cXQcct, t dcas Vcty gcndy Wtb suQctstats. oncc mcy
38 T H N U M 8 k |
makc Ots Ot mOncy tOt tbc cOmQany dutng sbOtt butsts
Ot actVq tbcy gct Qcnq Ot tmc On tbc bcnch. but gtunt
WOtkcts n tbs bctarcby gct tat css cOndctatOn. Jbcytc
OaOuatcd as cOmmOdtcs. Jbcr sks atc mngbc. bs
mcans tbcsc WOtkcts atc Vttuay ndstngusbabc ttOm Otb-
cts, Wbc
t
bct tbcytc n nda Ot \tuguay. hcy cOntrbutc t-
tlc tO QtOhts. t Qans akt tO say tbs, bccausc bumans atc
nOt macbncs. bcy baVc Vatyng sks and QOtcntM tO gtOW.
mc aQQtcOatcs tbs. but OOKng at t matbcmatcay, bc says,
tbc cOmQany sbOud kccQ :ts cOmmOdty WOtKcts abOtng as

cOsc as QOssbc tO roo Qctccnt Ot tbc tmc. !Ot mucb kOk-
back tmc On tbc bcnch tOt tbcm.
ctc s tbs a cadng QOsc tbc QucstOn Onc ahct-
nOOn tO cttc marcn. P b. L. trOm Nassacbusctts nsttutc
Ot JccbnOO@ and a QtOmncnt mcmbct Ot tbc (umctat, bcs
tbc tOundct and cbct cXcOutVc Ot LLL. ts a rcncb cOm-
Qany tbat uscs OQctatOns tcscarcb tO hnc-tnc ndustta sys-
tcms, cbartng, tOt cXaQc, tbc mOst cmccnt dcVcty tOutcs
tOt LOOts bcct. LLL macs aOWanccs tOt a knds Ot cOn-
sttants. Ot cXaQlc, a tcW ycats agO, mc ongaQOtc gOVctn-
mcnt Wantcd tO aVOd dQOmatc sQats at ts ncW atQOtt. oO
Omcas askcd LLL to syncbtOnzc tbc hOW Ot Qasscngcts,
makng sutc tbat tbOsc ttOm manand Lbna WOudnt ctOss
Qaths Wtb traVccts ttOm awan. matcn sQcas n a sttOng
tcncb acccnt. ctc tmkn
g
n thc Obby Ot a NdtOWn bOtc
n cW YOtk, and bc bas tO yc tO makc bmsct bcatd OVct a
Qattcuaty Oud tOuntan.

atcn says tbat tbc cdOtts undctWay at QaCcs m N
Wl nOt Ony brcak dOWn cach wOtkcr nto scts Ot sks and
knOWcdgc. bc samc systcms W asO dVdc tbct days and
cck ntO sma QctOds ot tmcbOuts, hat-bOuts, cVcntu-
ay cVcn mnutcs Pt tbc samc tmc, tbc ]Obs mat baVc tO bc
n 0 8 K 8 J9
dOnc, Wbctbct ts budng a sOhatc QtOgtam Ot dcsgnng
an atnct, atc asO btOkcn dOWn ntO ttny stcQs. n tbs scnsc,
matcn mgbt as Wc bc dcscrbng tbc ndustra cngncctng
tbat cd tO asscmby ncs a ccntuty agO. bg ]Obs atc Qatscd
ntO tbOusands Ot tasks and dVdcd amOng many WOtkcts.
but tbc WOtk atcn s dscussng s nOt dOnc by band, by-
dtauO Qtcsscs, Ot cVcn tObOts. t bOWs hOm tbc btan. bc
abOt s dchncd by knOWcdgc and dcas. P bc sccs t, tbat
cXQcttsc W bc taQQcd mnutc by mnutc actOss tbc WOtd.
bs ]Ob sbatng s atcady stattng tO baQQcn,

as cOmQancs
btcak uQ QtO]ccts and mOVc bg Qcccs Ot tbcm OdsbOtc. but
Oncc tbc WOtkcts atc tcQtcscntcd as matbcmatca mOdcs, t
W bc tat casct tO btcak dOWn mct days ntO babc mn-
utcs and scnd tbct smatts tO m ]Obs a OVct tbc WOtd.
LOnsdct bNs suQctstat cOnsutant. mcs tOuscd Od tbc
bcncb, Wbcthct bcs On a sk h at ot. Nottz Ot cadng a scm-
nat at PtmOnk. mc tcacbcs ntO bs QOckct and sccs a mcssagc
askng tOt tcn mnutcs Ot bs QtccOus tmc. mc m_t knOW
] ust tbc tgbt agOttbm, Ot QctbaQs a cOntact Ot a custOmct.
Naybc bc scnds back WOtd tbat bcs buy. [mcs a stat, ct
al.) ut t bc takcs Qatt, bc assumO bs Qacc n Wbat marcn
Cm a Vrtua asscmby nc. bs s tbc cQuVacnt Ot tbc n-
dustta tcVOutOn tOt Wbtc-cOat WOrkcts, atcn says.
oOmc Ot us kc tO tbnk tbat Out WOtk s tOO crcatVc tO
bc mcasutcd and mOdccd. uscd tO tcc tbs Way. Ot ycats
WOud Wtc attccs, and tbc Ony mcttc tbat mattctcd Was
Whctbct tbc cdtOr n cbct aQQtccatcd tbcm. bngs bcgan
tO cbangc Wbcn mc attccs mOVcd Onnc. bs madc t QOs-
sbc Ot managcts tO cOunt bOW many QcOQc tcad cacb at-
tcc. oOmc managcts tbcsc days tank Wttcts by Qagc VcWs
Ot bOW many tmcs cacb attcc s c-macd by tcadcts. s tbs
mt Ot n my VcW. tcmcmbct Onc tmc a cOcaguc QOstcd
40 T H N U M 8 k T |
On h bO_ a VdcO ad tcatutn_ at tOn. ohc Wan`t Wcat-
n_ muC, and hc Wa Wahn_ a Cat Wth a bg Wct QOn_c
n a Qahy ad QtOVOCatVc tahOn. bO_ attraCtcd

tcn
O thOuand Ot Vt that day, mOtc than Othct Ot u _Ot n a
mOnth. d hc OutQcttOtm u t dcQcnd OH What thc bOc
dcCdc tO COunt. P mc umctat _an Way n thc WOtKQaCc,
uCh QuctOn atc bOund tO ta_c.
t _ctt_ atc n aKtt OmCc. c cc tbat hc COn-
Octncd abOut my nc Ot QuctOnn_. Jh Vttua acm}
nc Ound mcnaCB_. hc utVcanCc has mOtc than a Whb
O_ DtOtbct. Ot thOc Ot u WhO atcDt LatO bcttan Ot a
$I,OOO-Qct-hOut COnutant, tc a a mathcmatiCa mOdc
Oundtn_ Kc ab]cCt data cttdOm.
ctc aKtt COuntctatgumcnt. P mc tOO hc bud-
ng maKc WOtKct mOtc QtOduCtVc, thc matkt w tcWatd
mcm. (So thctc a cCOnOmC bcnc
g
t, cVcn tO u cth. } at
mOtc, WOtKct W nOtcangy uc thct numbct tO

OQcn
dOOt Ot tbcmcVc. c atcady uc math QtO_tam tO maQ
Out ttQ and OOK tOt datc. NynOt uc tbcm tO maQ Out Ca-
tcct and nc_Otatc tOt bcttct Qay ct ay anaytCa tOO
hOW that a COnutant Vuc tO UCOmQany tOQQcd $2

m-
On Onc ycat. ohOudnt hc haVc aCCc tO that numbct and
bc ttcc tO u

t a a nc_Otat
_
_ tOO n a WOtKQaCc dchncd
by mcttC, cvcn mOc Ot u WbO Kc IO tbnK that Wctc bc-
yOnd mcasurcmcnt W mCc _rOWng Qrcssurc to bud Our Casc
Wth numbct Ot Out OWn.
C H A P T E R 2
Shopper
THE CALL COMES ttOm my Wtc at mc suQctmatkct. LO Wc
nccd OnOns
cbcck. Nc baVc Onc bg Onc, say, turnng t OVct gn-
gcty. but ts bccD sQtOutng tOt a WbR . . .
Lky, gct sOmc. mOW abOut mk
1Ou knOW tbc tOutnc. P tcW mnutcs atct, WbcbcVct Onc
Ot us s sbOQQng attVcs at tbc cbcckOut cOuntct. There, t Wc
tcmcmbct,Wc dg ntO a QOckct Ot Qutsc tOt
t
bc ttaycd cus-
tOmct Oyaty catd On tbc kcy cban. bc casbct scans t. Nc

gct a dscOunt On mc Otangc ]ucc Ot tOt badcs, and tbc su-
Qctmatkct catns abOut cVctytbng Wc buy. ts a dca Wc sbOQ-
Qcts baVc bccn makng tOt ycats. otOtcs gVc us Wbat amOunts
tO a cOuQc bucks a Wcck n cXcbagc tOt Out shOQQng sts.
mctcs tbc sttangc Qatt. O datc, tctacts baVc stOOkQcd
untOd mOuntans Ot Out QctsOna data, but tbcytc Ony nOW
Wakng uQ tO Wbat tbcy can dO wtb t. outc, managcts baVc
uscd tbc scans tO kccQ an cyc On nVcntOty. bcy can scc
Wbcn tO Otdct mOtc mangOcs Ot onckcts bats. bcy`Vc camcd
Qcnq abOut Out bcbaVOt cn massc but ncXt tO nOtbng abOut
us as ndVduas. cn Wc wak ntO a stOtc, cVcn t ts tbc
4 T H N U M 8 k T |
hundrcdth timcthisycar, thcsystcmdocsntrccognizc us. lt's
cluclcss.
Jhis cra is coming to an cnd. Rctailcrs simply cannot
ord to kccp hcrding us blindlythrough storcs and ma|ls,
hashingdiscountsonPampcrstowidowcrsinwhcclcbairsand
hamhocks to|cwswhokccp koshcr. lt'swastcml, and com-
petitors arc gctt|ng smartcr. Lookonlinc. Vcthcr it'sAa-
zon. comoratravclscrvicclikcrbItz,lntcrnctmcrchantsarc
workingcvcrydaytohgurcusout.
Jhcy`rc tracking cvcry click on thcir sitcs. Jhcy know
whcrc wc comc |rom, what wc buy, how much wc spcnd,
whichadvcrtiscmcntswcscc.Jhcycvcnknowwhichoncswc
lingcrovcr|oramomentortwo with ourmousc. ln thcon-
'lincworld,busincsscsnolongcrIookatusashcrdsbutasvast
colcctionso|individuals -cacho|usrcprcscntcdbyscorcsoI
cquations.Jhcyprovc cvcry day that mcrchants who know
thcir customcrshavcabigcdgc.Jhcycan studyourpattcrns
o|consumption, anticipatc our appctitcs, and cnticc us to
spcndmoncy.
Fcrsonal scrvicc is nothing ncw |or rctailers. For ccntu-
rics, it's becnaprivilcgcIor thcrich. Shopkccpcrs andtailors
know tbcir namcs d mcasurcmcnts and thcir tastc in prc-
micrcruburgundics.Jhcysoknowwhcrcto scndthcbm.
P |cw gcncrationsago, thc rcsto|us got pcrsonaI scricc on
aIarmorcmodcstsca|c)inourownncighborhoods. hc tc-
tailmodclwasashopkccpcr,a millincry,arugmcrchant,"says
|chSmith, amanaging partncro|thcrctailpracticcatAcccn-
turc, thctcchconsultinggiant. "oudidntscrvcyoursc[" hc
says. "Jhcystoodbchind countcrs andmndwhatyouwcrc
looking |or." Chummy rcations with customcrs gave thcsc
mcrchantsancdgc.

Following World Var ll, howcvcr, rctail took a hal|-

ccntury dctour into mass industrialization. Shoppcrs wcrc
5 H 0 k 4J
bandcd cart and ntructcd tO hnd tbcr OWn tud. Nctbcr
tbcyWcrcQubngtbOccarttbrOugb kcaOra-Nart, tbcy
bad cnttc WarcbOuc tO cxQOrc. Adtbc mcrObandc Wa
cbcaQ, n Qart bccauc tbc tOrc bad cmnatcd tbc mddc-
man-tbc bOQkccQcr at tbc Oca tOrc WbO kncW tbc cu-
tOmcr by namc. bcy matcrcd a tartng ncW cmccncy,
Wbcb camc trOm manumcturng and dtrbutng Wtb mar-
ta QrcOOn. bat Wbat tbc branac and tbcr cOmQutcr
WcrctOcucd On: OQcratOn.bccutOmcrA Wcmadc Our
WaytrOmtbcmaVcOt tbrOugb tbc cQuay maVc tOrc,
WcWcrcQrOcccdkc card-carryngbcrdanma.
OWrctacrarccbangng.Pcccnturcomtbcatback
tO tbc murc. ntcad OtdcQOyng mOn OtbOQkccQcr
tO twcnty-hrt-ccntury cOuntcr, tbcyrc rcyng On autOmatO
macbncry, trOm VdcO camcra tO ncwtangcd cutOmcr Oy-
aty card. bc OQcratOn run On data, Our data. bc gOa
tO tOOW Our tOOttcQ n mucb amc tbc Way tbat c-tacr
trackOurcck. ntbc markctQacc Otmcumcrat,Wcdc-
hnc OurcVc a bOQQcr n cVcr-grcatcr dcta mQyby gO-
n_abOutOurbusncnatOtc.cnmctOrcgcttOknOW
u, thcy rccOgnzc u tbc mOmcntWcwaknthcdOOr-ut
mc Way tbc cOmcr grOccr ucd tO. Pd uttkc mat grOccr,
tb knOW Our Wcck-tO-Wcck rOutnc and Our nOt-O-c-
OrctcraVng.JbcymaycacuatctbatWcrc QrObabyrunnng
bOrt On cat kbbc, and tbcyWOnt tOrgct mat Wc Qkc
gaOn Or wO OtcggnOgcVcrybOday can. |Pnd WOudnt
ttatcbcttcrWtb Qrcmum)amacan rum tbycarr) bc au-
tOmatc ytcms W cacuatc nOt Ony Wbat Wcrc kcy tO
buy but MO bOW mucb mOncyWc mac tOr thc tOrc. Nany
Ottbm W carn bOW tO aVb1tg Qcndcr Wtb Qcca at-
tcntOnandnudgccbcaQkatctOward tbc dOOr.
44 T H N U M 8 k T |
PN OLD bOQQng cart Qakcd ncXt tO tbc W at Pcccn-
turc ab, hgb abOVc dOwtOWn LbcagO. bc Omcc arc
OhOckflOttccbgadgctj. bnkngVdcO camcrabangtrOm
tbc ccng, tarng dOWn On tbcrccarcbcr. |Jhcyrc gunca
Qg n a ncW surVcancc ytcm dcgncd tO trackbOQQcr
and WOrkcr.) n Onc nOOk Ottbc ab a argc, aWay-On
VdcO cOnncctOn Wtb anOtbct Pcccnturc ab n ocOn Na-
cy. PrOund uncbtmc n LbOagO, yOu c cc tbc LatOr-
nacOntngcntcOmngtOWOrk,tcamngcOdcccuQnband.
YOu bcar tbcr QbODc rtn_ng Md thcr tOOttcQ ccbOng
acrO tbc Obby 2,OOO mc to tbc Wct. P Otm gadgctry
bacKcdbyaWraQarOundVcWOtLbcagO craQcr,Wm
akc Ncbgan hmmcrng n tbc dtancc. n tb tcbnO-
OgybOWcac, tbc bOQQng c OOk Out OtQacc and a t
dc tOrOtn. but t rcmnd Kayd Lban and b ma tcam
Otrccarcbcr Ottbcrkcy mOn: tO Qrcdct tbcbchaVOr Ot
QcOQc kc my Wtc, and yOu, and mc a Wc makc Our Way
tbrOughtOrc.
LbanmadcaQabn 2OO2WmatudyOtbOWacOth-
ngrctacr l bc LaQ OrLddtc baucr cOudautOmatcay
bud QrOhc Otu trOm tbc tbngWc buy. b Ound m-
Qc, but t add a tbckaycrOtcOmQcXtytO data mnng. t
yOu U cartb a Od rcccQt gatbcrng dust n yOur bcdrOOm,
yOu cc tbat Onc McrnOOn a fe mOntb agO yOu bOught,
ay, OncQarOtgrayQants,wOcOttOnbrt, andOmcOck.
atca tbc rctacrQObycarnabOutyOutrOmtb data
batyOurc abuman bcngWtbabOdyand, Qtcumaby, wO
tcctbtakctbatmuch tOrgrantcd.batyOuQcndanaV-
cragc Ot$86] Qcr ycar n tbc tOrcbat a tad mOrc ntcrct-
ng. buttcacbOncOttbctcmyOubOugbtcartcdabtmOrc
cOntcXtuM ntOrmatOn, Wbat cOmQutcr Ocnttt ca a aycr
Otcmantc dctat, mucbmOrcOtyOuWOud QOQ ntO tOcu.
5 H 0 P P 8 45
ct aytbcQantarc taggcd a urban yOutb. tb tb
bt OtknOWcdgc, tbc ytcm can mOVc bcynd yOur Qcnd-
ngbabt and tart tO dcVcntO yOurQcrOna tatc-muOb
tbc WayPaOH. cOm cacuatc tbcknd Otrcadcr yOu arc
trOm tbc bOOk yOu buy P cOtbng ytcm Wth cmantc
mart can cndyOu cOuQOn tOrgarmcnttbataQQca tO ur-
banyOutb. t can track tbc QrOcVtc Ottb trbc |tbata
WOrd markctcr adOrc) . Pd dcQcndng On tbc tOrc QrVacy
QOQt mgbtdccdc tO c tbatdatatO Otbcr cOmQanc ca-
gcr tO markct On@ Or tO mc amc grOuQ. oOmc, a Wc
cc atcr, mgbt cVcn uc trba data tO Qub mcmbcr tOWard
Onc QOtcacanddatcOr anOtbct. LOmQcatOn O dOubt.
Naybc yOurc a -ycar-Od WOman WbO bOu@t tbat Qar Ot
Qant tOr yOur I-ycar-Od On. Naybc bcbatcdtbcm. bat
nOtrcayyOuntbcrcccQt, andtnOtbmctbcr.aOcdWtb
ucb cOmQcXtyandcOntradctOn, macbnc nccd mart and
Qatcnttcacbcr tOgudctbcmnmakngcncOtu.
bat bOW Kyd Lban VcW bmct-a a QcrOna
tutOr tOr mc dOt aVant Wc knOW a OOmQutcrs. Lban
bOrt, a btrOund, and QucktO mc. mc OncOttbc hcHd-
ct tutOr b tudcnt cOud bOQc tOr |nOt tbat tbcyd nO-
tcc) . P aktstan WbO tudcd at tbc cOmQutcr Ocncc QOW-
crbOuc Larncgc NcOn, Lban WOud ccm tO ht rght n
Wtbtbcumcrat. but n tbcr rarchcd mk, bc mnga
tandard ngrcdcnt: a dOctOratc. aVng Ony a matcr n
bcrccvcWcdas abandcaQ. buttbc zy-ycar-Odoutdcr
ba grOWn accutOmcd tO caWng b Way uQWard. bc On
OttwO cOcgc QrOtcOr n racb, aktan, bc aQQcd tO
Pmcrcan cOcgc my aWarc tbat bc cOud M OrdOnytbOc
Odrnga mcbOarbQ. mcandcdat tbc \nVcrty Ottbc
oOutb, nocWancc,cnnccc. Lbancatabcraa cO-
cgc n mc mddc Otnowbcrc. ardy tbc dca QOt tOr a
46 T H N U M 8 k T |
buddn_ COmQutct Ccntt, t bcttct KnOWn tOt t thcOO_y
ChOO. ut Ouc ummct, Lhan WOn a ntctnhQ at Latn-
c_c NcOn, n ttbutg. c QUn_cd HtO a WOtd Whctc
Camatc Wctc tcaCbH_ Cat tO dtVc by thcmcVc and ttan-
n_ COmQutct tO Qca and tcad. c dcVcOQcd a QaOn tOt
maChnc catnD_. \QOn _taduatOn fom ocWancc, bc QtO-
Cccdcd tO a matct QtO_tam at LN\. 'han Wa n a hutty
c tattcd Qubhn_ QaQct ncaty a OOn a hc attVcd. Pnd
Whcn hc _Ot h matct, hc dcCdcd tO OOK tOt a ]Ob `at QaCc
Whctc thcy htc h. . . c andcd at PCCcntutc, and nOW,
at a a_c at WhCb many Ot h Camatc atc ]ut bHhn_
thct dOCtOtatc, hc tun thc anaytC dVOn ttOm h QctCh
n LhCa_O.
Lhan cad mc Out Ot h OmCc and OWatd thc bOQ-
Qn_ Catt. Ot tattCa mOdcln_, bc cXQan, _tOCcty hOQ-
Qn_ Onc O thc htt tcta nduttc tO COnQuct. D
bcCauc Wc buy tOOd COntanUy. Ot many Ol u, thc suQct-
matKct mnCtOn a a Cby, Nbatn_ anncX tO OmQan-
ttc. lWOud bct that mOn Ot ubutban PctCan Qcnd
. `
mOtc tmc n uQctmatKct tban H tbct tOtma Vn_ tOOm.)
Lut _tOOcty hOQQn_ u O QtOd_Ou that ]ut by tudyn_
Onc ycat Ot Out tcCcQt, tccatChct Can dctcOt a OH Ot Qat-
tcm tat mOtc than te Can catn ttOm a ycat Ot tcCOtd dc-
tang Out Othct, mOtc QOtadO QutCbac. [NOt Ot u, tOt
cXamQc, buy zctO Cat and zctO JNct n aygVcn ycat. )
htcc ycat a_O, LhaD tcam at PCcntutc bc_an tO WOtK
Wth a _tOCcty Chan. [hcytc nOt aOWcd t namc t.) h
QtO]cCt Camc WU a Wndta: twO ycat Ot dctacd CutOmct
tcCOtd. hc tOtc cH Out namc, a_c, and Othct dcmO-
_taQhC dcta, but nOnc Ot that mattctcd. hc 20,OO hOQ-
Qct Lhab and h COca_uc tudcd Wctc mQly numbct.
but by thct bchaVOt n thc tOtc, caCh numbct QtOduCcd a
dctacd QOtttat Ot a hOQQct.
5 H 0 P P R 4
ctaumcyOutc OncOttbOcnamcc bOQQct. Nbat
can tccatcbct catn abOutyOuPttum Out, Qcnty. by tbc
Qattcm OtyOut Qutcbac, an tbc amOunt yOu QcndWcck
Mct Wcck, mcy can cc tyOutc On a budgct. b can ca-
cuatc yOut Qcndng mt. ttbcy zdd Omc cmantc tag
tO mc data, tbcy can dtaW Otbct cOncuOn. cn tbcy cc
yOu tattng tO buykmmk, Ot QctbaQ tbOcmtacc mk
bakc, tbcyOanntct tbatyOutc Onadct.Pnd tbcybaVc nO
ttOubc ccngWbcn yOu aQc. batcatOn Otbcn &)cttys
nyOut catt, Ot tbc bgWbcc OtKOQuctOtt, agVcaWay. but
Wat| Naybc t tbc bOday caOn, Ot yOut bttbday P tcW
mOtcWcckOttcccQtWQcOutWbctbctyOutcutcbcat-
ngatUc Otnttcc ta. P Ot tbtbcycandOWtbtbcknd
OttattcaanayancgbtbgtadctcOud undcttand.
t gct a bt mOtc cOmQcatcdWbcn tbcy cacuatc yOut
btandOyaty. ct ayyOukcLbcttyLOkc.YOuugbOmc a
Iz-Qack cVctyWcck. mOWmucbWOud cQbaVctO ab tbc
Qtcc Ott d Lbctty LOa tO cntccyOu tO Wtch Lban
andtwOcOcaguc,tbattnatObtandLbadLumby,WatCb
bOWtbcbOQQcttcQOndtOMc andQtOmOtOnagVcaWay.
hcycOtccaOb bOQQct OnbtandOyaty, andcVcn OyatytO
ccttan QtOductWtbn a btand. oOmc QcoQc, tbcyVc tOund,
atclOya tOccttantOOd, uCba tMmaCatOnandcbccc.
but dOc tbat Oyaty cXtcnd tO Otbct tM QtOduct Ot a
ccttan gtOuQ OtbOQQct, t dOc. bcPcccntutc tca takc
nOtc.
at tbcybaVc On tbct band an cnOtmOu cataOg Ot
tbc catng babt Ota mM gtOuQ OtutbanPmctOan n tbc
hrt ycat Otth ccntuty. PntbtOQOOgt Ota ccttan bcnt
WOud tcat On t. but wbat gOOd dOc t dO a uQctmatkct
tO knOW tbatyOu, tOt cXamQc, baVc a sp;Wccky budgct, atc
hctOcy OyM tO LbcctO, and httcd Wtb tbc Ptkn dct at
batbccuc caOn at can tbcydO Wtb a tbat ntcgcncc
48 T H N U M 8 A T |
wcnthcydontdobusincsswithyouuntilyousup,loy-
alty card in hand, at mc chcckout countcr: At mat point,
you'vc doncyourshopping.Jhcchcc to ohcryoupromo-
tionsbascdonyour prohlchaspasscd. Surc, thcycan throw
a|cw coupons inyour bag. Maybcyoull rcmcmbcr thcm on
yourncxtvisit, butprobably not. Jhis iswhy, until now, su-
pcrmarkcts havc virtually ignorcd thc rccords olindividual
shoppcrs.Jhcyhadittlcopportunitytoputmcmtousc.
Jhcrcbrcakthrough will comcwhcn rctailcrs canspot
you grabbing an cmpq cart and pushing it into thc storc.
Jhishas bccnagroccrs'drcam|ordccadcs.lnaprcviousli|c
in thc rppos, thatsadlituc shopping cart atAcccnturcwas a
proudprotot_c o|a "smartcart," onctbat allowcdshoppcrs
to swipc thcirloyqcards throug a computcr attachcd to
thccart,whichwouldthcnlcadthcm to bargains. "Lvcryonc
tricd to

do it," Ghani says. Jhc attcmpts Icll hat. Jhc com-

putcrswcrc too priccy, mc anytics primitivc. But comput-
crsarc|archcapcrnow. CompanicslikcAcccnturcarcbctting
thcy can makc systcms so smartthat shoppcrs vicw thc
ncwsmartcartas apcrsonalassistant.
Jhchrsto|suchsmartcartsarcj uststartingto roll. Stop
Sbop is tcsting thcmin groccry storcs in Massachusctts.
Carts powcrcd by a Microsoh progr arc taking thcir hrst
turns in ShopRitc supcrmarkcts along thc East Coast. Jhc
Gcrman chain Mctro islaunchingthcmIn Osscldorl Ad
Samsung-Jcsco, a Korcan-ritish vcnturc, has thcm opcrat-
ing in coul. lcw things wc kowcvcn at this carly stagc.
Foronc, acomputcrona shoppingcartc m ahordtomakc
dumb mistakcs.Jbis sounds iomatic, but thc Iactis, wc'vc
longgivcn groccry storcs thc bcncht olthc doubtwhcn thcy
ohcr us hicrs and coupons that dont match our nccds or
wants, sincc thcydontprctendtoknowthcm. ut i|ashop-
5 H 0 P P R 49
Qcrba bccnbuytngkm mKtOraycarandtbc QcrOnazcd
c nt OnQrOmOttngbat-and-baJ tbc bOQQct mayWc
VcW tbc mart cart a dtOtc [and rcVcrt tO tbc tradtOna
dumb cartmatQcCazc n rOn_.
bcOtbcrcXtrcmc: ttbcccart gcttOO mart,ctkcy
vcW tbcm a crccQy. can jut magtnc rOtng tbrOugb my
nctgbbOrbOOd ng, Wbcn tbc cart tart habtng a mcagc.
STEVE: murry tO ac tbrcc tOr bargan On tWO OtyOur ta-
VOrtc FUNGAL MEDI CATI ONS, Qu m bOnu SELECTION
tOr mc mnguyOurc mOt kcy tO OOntraCt NEXTI Pt tbat
QOnt, d bc ncncd tO Qub t Out tO tbc trcct and undcr
tbcWbccOtan OncOmngtruck.
octtng atdc ucb trOubng ccnarO, bcrcNbat bOQ-
QngWtb Onc Ottbcccart m@ttcckc.YOugrab ac On
tbcWay tn anCWQc yOur Oyaty catd. bc WccOmc Ctccn
QOQ uQWtbabOQQtn_t.tbacdOntbcQattcrnOtyOur
Qat Qurcbacs. Nk, cgg, zuccbn, WbatcVcr. omart ytcm
migt QrOVdc yOu Wtb tbc QuOkct rOutc tO caOb tcm. \r
QcrbaQtbaOWyOutOcdttbctt, tOtct, tOrcXamQc,
ncVcr tO QtOmOtc OauhOWcr Or atcd Qc(ut agan. Jb
mQc tud. but accOrdtng tO PCOcnturctudc, hOQQcr
tOrgctan aVcragc OtttQcrccntOttbctcmtbcyntcndtO buy
ltOrc c cdcOtVcy rcmnd u OWbat Wc Want, tt mcan
tcWcrmdn@truns tO tbccOnVcntcncctOrctOru anOmOrc
ac tOrtbcm.
Things get more interesting when store managers' begin
tO manQuatc Our bcbaVOr. aytd Lban Qcn bt aQtOQ
andbOW mc tbc uQcrmarkct cOntrO Qanc tbatbc and b
tcambaVcbut. ctayyOuWanttOurhundrcdbOQQcr tO
WtCb tO a ccrtan brand OttrOzcn hb, bc ay. tb a cOu-
Qc Otctck, tbc managcr can cc bOW many bOQQcr at tbc
Store buythis ttem bcysit ngrOuQtng knOwn tnmarkcttn_
50 T H N U M 8 k |
n_O a `buCKctn tb Cac, tbc hOzcn-bb buCK0t. ct
ay t nCudc , OOO hOQQct. POn_ that _tOuQ atc tbOc
WhO buy tVa brand OtttOzcn bb. Jbcytc tbc tat_ct aud-
cnCc, andthcytnthtccmactbuCKct, ay, I,OOObOQQct
Qct tVa btand. LtthOc bOQQct, Onc-tbtd aQQcat tO bc
btaDdOyat;.1tWOudlKcytaKc b_dCOunt tO Qtytbcm
ttOmthchhmuuaybuy butthcOthct, Omc2,OOO,atc
mOtcbcXbcWbcn tCOmc tO btand.JbcyWttCcayand
Ohcn.
JbccbuCKct, a yOuCan cc, atc_cttn_nCtcan_ytc-
bucd. OWWctc dOwn tO tbc btand-bCKc buyct OtCcttan
tyQc OtttOzcnbh. Lhan Qay at tbc COnttO. tbc Cut
tbc QtCc by ]ut O Ccn a QOUndand cnd WOtd Ottbc
dCOunt tO thct matt Catt hc c cntCc a QtO]cCtcd IO
Ottbcm tO] umQ tOtbc tat_ct btand. Lhan OWct tbc QtCc
by anOtbOt ] Ccnt. At tbatcVc, an addtOna ]OO bat_an-
buntct WOud nc uQ tO buy thc bb. Jbc mana_ct c Qay
WthcndcVatabc. cc ad]uttbc tOtmuatOtacQtOt-
t, tO _OOc ac, tO QtOmOtc btand, tO ah nVcntOty. t a
Vttua QuQQct bOW al Ott bacd On QtObabty. bc QuQ-
Qct,nccdctO ay, atcmatbcmatCa tcQtccDtatOn OtU.
ctayyOutcnOtOtOuybCcWbcntCOmctObtand.
Vcn tbcmactbuCtuatOnwlQubyOuttOmLbcctOtO
catcandbackagan. tthc managcr ntctctcd nash-
n_ nVcntOty, yOutc Kcy tO bc n thc btt buCKct bc QC
uQ. AOutc an cay c. but ttbc _Oa tO WtCh yOut ac-
_anCc ttOm Onc btand tO Otbct, yOutc a Ouy bct. O Ot-
tcnc, butyOutcdOya, atcatn m COntct. AOuQOCKct
thc dCOunt and abandOn thc btand tbc Vcty ncXt tmc yOu
Can aVc a dmc. Jhc maDa_ct mgt tatc bcttct QtOmOtng
thc dCOunt tO thOc WbO tCK tO btand a bt On_ct Ua
yOu dO. !atutay, thcytc nanOtbctbuCKct.
5 H 0 P P R 5!
YOumayaOOcOutOndcOunt tyOubcWtO aWccky
budgct. ct ay yOu Qcnd abOut szo a Wcck On grOCcrc.
cytcmcacuatc tbatyOurc On abudgct bccauc, ay, ]
Qcrccnt Otthc tmc yOu QcndbctWccn sttj and sIz;aWcck.
tyOurc nOtrctrOtcdtO a tOrmamt,yOum@taWc bc.
Pumc tbattbcmanagcr cagcr tO gctrdOta mOuntan Ot
dctcrgcnt mOdcrng n mc WarcbOuc. mc Obcrng umbO
bOXc at wO tOr tbcQrcc OtOnc. obOud bc cnd tbc WOrd
tO yOur crccn Naybc nOt, Lban ay. bc rcaOn mQc.
OrcVcrydOyOuQcndOndcOuntcdQrOduct, tbats Onc
cdOaryOubaVc nyOurbudgcttOQcndatflQrcc.hat
burt QrOht.O gct rdOttbat dctcrgcnt, t martcr tO targct
QcOQntrccr-Qcndngbuckct.
PngtbcmOtunQcaantbuckctamanagcrmutcOn-
trOnt arc tbOc Oadcd Wtb barnacc bOQQcr. bat tcrm
cOmc trOm N umar, a cOnutant and markctng QrOtc-
Orattbc\nVcrtyOtLOnncctcut. barnacc, UOm a rcta-
cr QcrQcctVc, arc dctctabc crcaturc. c M knOW a tcW Ot
tbcm. bcytc tbc tOkWbOdrVctrOm tOrc tO tOrc, cQQcd
OOuQOn n band, buyng dcOuntcd gOOd -and Qract-
cay nOtbng cc. umar ca tbcm batnacc bccauc, kc
tbc mOuK cngngtO abQ, thcybtcbtrcc rdc and cOn-
trbutcnOtbngOtVauc. nmct, tbcy cOttbcrctacrmOncy
tb a tbc cOnumcr dataQOurng n, umar ay, t bc-
cOmnganaQ tO cacuatc aQrOjcctcdQrOht [OrO) tOrcaC
OutOmcr. umar, WhO c bs advcc tO KaQh Laurcn and
rOctcr Lambc, ay tbatrctacr bOud hrc cutOmcr
WbO OOkkcytOdragdOWn QrOht.
bt dOcnt mcanbrngmuccbOundbOunccr tODOck
tbcc bOQQct at tbc dOOr. butrctac c takctcQ ntbat
drcctOn. bcy Oan tart by rcmOVng barnacc hOm thcr
mangsts. ncrcangy, thcy asObavc thc mcan tO mac
5 T H N U M 8 k I |
adjutmcnt ndc tbc tOtc. t bOna hdc bataCc atc Qub-
ng matt Catt thtOugb a uQctmatKct, tOt cXamQc, t mgbt
makc cnc tO b tbct Otccn Wtb Ob-Quttng QtOmOtOn
tOt m-QtCcd CaVat and ttumc. [LCOut@ng unWantcd
bOQQct tat cact On thc ntctnct. tcady, Onnc mct-
Cbant atc asag tbct batnaCc Wth adVcttcmcnt. Pnd
t tbcc batgan buntct cCK tO btOWc tbc Qagc Ot a bOOK Ot
gaWK at tbc tcc QhOtO On a Qad-QOm tc, tbcy gct buntcd
tO tbc OWct ctVct, O tbat mWat and Wat.)
t yOu tbnK abOut t, batnaCc tbrVc n matKct Wbctc
Wc`tc a ttcatcd aKc. Jb tcat on OQQOttuntc tbat tbc tct
Ot u, tOt Onc tcaOn Ot anOtbct, ms. but nOW tctact atc
ganng tOO nOt Ony tO QOt batnaOc but aO to dCtm-
natc agant tbcm. batnaCc, Ot COutc, atc tbc btt tO nOtCc
Whcn th baQQcn. t` mct natutc tO kccQ mct cycs Wdc
OQcn. Pnd yOu c bct that thcy Cbacngc tb tyQc Ot d-
CtmnatOn n COutt. n a Ca-aCtOn ut n zoo;, aWyct
tcQtccntng Omc mOn ubCtbct tO PcthX, tbc bm-
by-ma tcnta ctVCc, Catgcd tbat tbc ctVCc Wa taKng On-
gct tO cnd mOVc tO t mOt aCtVc CutOmct. JbOc Wctc
tbc m bud WbO Qad a bat mOntby tcc OtsI). p tOt m-
tc tcnta and ttcd tO cc a my mOVc a |b COud
_ tOt tbct mOncy. Jb nVOVcd WtCbng a mOVc Ot wO tbc
Vcty day tbcy attVcd n tbc ma and tubng tO ma tbcm
baOK mc ncXt mOtnng. (I kow tbc tOutnc, tOt my btt fe
mOntb On ctbX, w an cagct batnaCc. ) ctbX OmCa
admttcd tbat tbcy mVOtcd c aOtVc [and mOtc QtObtabc)
CutOmct Wtb QtOmQt man@. Pd n a cttcmcnt, tbcy
gaVc mOn Ot ubCtbct a ttcc mOnm Ot ctVCc. but, g-
nhCanty, tb dd nOt VOW tO Obangc tbct batnacc-Qunb-
ng Way. Jbcy mQy ad]utcd tbc WOtdng n tbct tcnta
COnttaOt.
5 H 0 P P 8 5J
arnaccs arcn'tthconycrcaturcs in Kumar's mcnagcric.
Hc aso warns rctaicrs about buttcrhics," customcrs who
dropinatthcstorconoccasion,spcndgood moncy, andthcn
hitaway, somctimcstormonths orycarson cnd. Jhcyrc un-
rciabc, andrctaicrsarcwarncdto avoid avishing attcntion
on thcm. Youshoudntchasc thc buttcrhics," thc protcssor
says. Howcvcr, by studyingthcirpattcrns otbchavior, smart
rctaicrs maycarnwhich buttcrhics thcyc turn into rci-
abccustomcrs -abuckctthatKumarcastructricnds."
P mcrchants carn morc about us, it's goingto bc casicr
torthcm tohgurcoutwhichcustomcrsto rcward andwhicb
oncs to punish. Jhiswon't makc much dihcrcncc to buttcr-
hyshoppcrs.Jhcyrcobivious. utiuthcagcotthcrctaiing
Numcrati,itcforbarnaccsmigtgctgrim.
WITH ALL THIS TALK otbuttcmicsandbuckcts,laskGhani,
whcrcis thc individua: I cxpcctcd to scc mysctmodccd a
a shoppcr, and hcrc l a, sitting in buckcts with othcr tro-
zcn-hshbuycrsandbrandtraitors.Vat's bccomcotcustom-
ization:Vhcrc's thc mytormcd mathcmatica modc otthc
chcapskatcwho ncvcr pays thc cxtra buck lor ycow or rcd
bcpcppcrs! I'mtkingaboutthc rcuctantcothcs shoppcr,
mconcrushingthroughthcmawithatightcningbackwho
aways takcstwoapsaroundthcgaragcbctorchndinghiscar:
Inshort, whcrca I inathisdata:
Ghani smics ashcdcivcrsthcbadncws.Jhcrc'snomy
tormcdmc"inthatdata.Jhcrc's noyou, atcast notyct. Vc
cxistinthcscdatabascsasshardsotourbchavior, myhang-up
wth thc bc pcppcrs, your habit otcasuaytossing a bag ot
M&Msontothcpicasyouwaitatthcchcckout. ythcway,
thoscsccmingyimpusivcpurchascs, ohcnaccompanicdby a
54 T H N U M 8 A T |
what-thc-hcshrug,arcnoahcrthoughts, Ghani'sdatashows.
Many shoppcrs buy thc candy bs and brcath mints morc
prcdictaby than thpurchasc mik or toict papcr. ) In any
cc, a otthosc picccs otourshoppingscvcs rcsidc incnd-
cssbuckctswithothcrpcopc'ssivcrs.Muchaswcmighthnd
ithattcringto sitinauniqucbuckctabyouroncsomc,tor
rctaicrs thcrc's no point. Jhcydonthavca customizcd mar-
kctingcampaigntormcortoryou.Jhcywanttoscporkor
crcw-ncckswcatcrs.Andtorthis,thdikctobringtogcthcr
I,oooor;o,ooo pcopc. |utbccauscthcyikc to microtargct
docsnt mcan that th woudn't rathcr rcach ots otpcopc
witbthcsamcmcssagc.Jhcystiovcbignumbcrs.Jhcyj ust
prctcrtotargctcustomcrsmorcintcigcnty. Itwoudbccasy
to mistc thcscncwbuckcts torthc dcmographic groupings
markctcrshavcworkcdwithtor dccadcs.iispanics, yuppics,
socccrmoms, thcsupcrrichwhoinhabit thc pozIo zip codc
inLsAgccs.Jhoscarcbuckcts tco. utthcrc's awordot
dihcrcncc.
In tbc old days, markctcrs kncw ncxt to nothing about
thc individu, so thassumcdthathc or shc sharcdvucs
ad urgcs with simiarpcopc-thoscwho so madc six-hg-
urc saarics orhad aast namcwith avowc at thc cnd Jhis
wasacrudcindicator. utgivcn thc intormation thcyhad, it
wasthc bcstthcouddo. And inthcdccadcsotindustria-
ucd consumption, in thc Ip;os and ` 6os, itwasu't haltbad.
Choiccs wcrc imitcd. Vy bothcr carning about a pcrson
if chanccswcrc, hc hadittcchoicc but to watch The H6n-
Qm660rr:, cat onc otthrcc dihcrcnt kinds olpcanut buttcr
onbis sandwich, orbuyacarthatookcdprcttymuchikc a
Chcy: Vc havc tbousands morc choiccs now, trom thc su-
pcrmarkct shcvcs to thc rcmotc on thcJ\ not to mcntion
thc Intcrnct. So markctcrs,a JacodasOavcMorg dcmon-
5 H 0 P P 8 55
stratcs, can shih mcir tocus tromwho wc arc tohowwcbc-
havc. Iorthis,thcynccdthcncwbuckcts.
Jo scchowdihcrcntthcscncwgroupingsarc, considcrmc
dcmographicsotthcscbuckctswcinhabit. 5tartbyookingat
thc skinhintswho,ikcmc,torgothcpcasurcsotrcdandyc-
ow bc pcppcrs. In this grccn-pcppcr buckct I'wagcr that
I'msurroundcdbypcopcotaraccs. othgcndcrsarcrcprc-
scntcd thoughI'd imaginc, bascd onmytamiysampc, that
morc otus arc guys) . Vc drivc kinds olcars. Somc otus
hunt, othcrswoudjusras soonoutawguns. Jhc districtat-
torncymightbcinthcrc, sharingbuckctspaccwiththcII's
most-wantcd kicr. You coud saywchavc notbing in com-
mon, andyou'dbcabsoutcy right-cxccpttoronc thing. our
bchaviorwhcnitcomcstobuyingbcpcppcrs.
Jhcsc bits otour bchavior sit in thousands otbuckcts,
aotthcm crcatcdautomaticaybym
_
chincs. Mostotthcm
-ikcmygrccn-pcppcrbuckct-arcncvcruscd.tyoustrung
aotyourbuckctsonccrmcncxt,you'dsccyourownspc-
ciacombination,youruniqucshoppinggcnomc. Spcndumc
withmicrotargctingmarkctcrsthcscdays,andyou'hcarthcm
rctcr to thcsc bchavior pattcrns as a consumcr's ONA. Jhis
comparison is not tair or accuratc, though it sounds tcmpt-
ingysimpc. Lnikc ourgcncticcodc, ourbchaviorchangcs
a thc timc. Vc carn. Vho knows:Acr onc tasty Momc-
can mcaI mightbcinspircdtospringtorabaskct otcxorbi-
tantrcdpcppcrsimportcdtromHoand.)
Sti, torgct thosc tcchnicitics tor a minutc. Jhink ot
buckctsasgcncs.Lachbascpairotagcncwhichprovidcsin-
structionstoproduccamino acids) is dcscribcdbycombina-
tions ottwoottourchcmicas known asnuccotidcs.Jbcy'rc
rcprcscntcd by thc cttcrs A, G, J, and C. Jhat basic codc is
prctq simpc. ut thcrc arckcyvariations, bothin mc ONA
55 T H N U M 8 A T |
codc tor individu gcncs and in thc j. zbiIion basc prs in
tbc gcnomc. Jo a argc dcgrcc, thosc dihcrcnccs shapc our
bodics and our ivcs, distinguishing us not ony trom othcr
pantsandanimas,butasotromcachothcr.
Sincc thc Ipos, thousands otthcword's cading mathc-
maticiansandcomputcrscicntistshavcbccndrawingupago-
rithms to comb through vast databascs otONA and othcr
hcth data.Jhcyrc ookingtor pattcrns n thosc bilions ot
bascpairs matmight point to aprocivitytor cukcmia, crc-
ativc gcnius, acoboism, orpcrhaps a dcadyacrgyto pca-
nuts.Jhc rcscarch issti at a carystagc, butscicntistshavc
buit an cnormous mamcmatica toobox tor inking symp-
toms tovariationsinthcfourbuidingbocksotONA.
ydocsthatmattcrtoagroccr:Iornow,itdocsn't. Bu
ct's saythatasupcrmarkct, atcwycarsdown thcroad, orga-
nizcs cach aspcct otourshoppingdata into tour groups. Ior
campc,wcbuycandyatthcchcckout
1. , MorcthanyO pcrccntotthctimc
z. Immz;to&ppcrccnt
j. Iromttoz(pcrccnt
(. cvcr
Vithmodcrncomputing,Dwoudntbcthatbardtoorganizc
thousands, or cvcn miions, otour groccry-shopping ha

its
intosimi|argroupsotlour.Jhcy'|bc arbitraq,much|ikcthc
ccnsus orthc catcg
_
rics oninsurancctorms.Jhc point hcrc,
howcvcr, isnt to modclonc cntirc pcrson accuratcy but in-
stcad to dccodc thc pattcrns othuman bchavor. Considcr
tbc pcopc who buy uxu chocoatcs. Is mcrc anything in
thcir purchasing bchavior tbat appcars to triggcr chocoatc
ust!Groccrshavcwcstcdwitbthcscqucstionstorccnturics.
Jhcymakc scnsibc corrcations. Chocoatcovcrs migbt bc
5 H 0 P P 8 5
intcrcstcdinamonds. Catch thcmatmchoidaysandbctorc
Vacntinc's Oay. uthowaboutthc corrcations thathumans
woudn't minktoooktor, suchas Uc romancc-movicovcrs
whocickcdonAamocarrcntaads!Howdogroccrsuncarth
thoschiddcninks!
Jhis iswhcrc thc data-miningagorithms coud comc in
and cad to randomizcd cxpcrimcnts with shoppcrs, Ghi
says. nccthc rctaicrshavc ourbchaviorsgroupcdinto tour
variabcs,thcycanrctoooncotthcscgcnomicagorithmsand
tccd our shopping data to it. Jhc computcrs whir through
our purchascs, ooking at itcray biions otcombinations.
Jhc grcatmajoritya uttcryscnsccss. O pcopcwho buy
bothrusscssproutsandsugarcdccrcaasobuySwisschoc-
oatcs morc th thc mcan! No sanc pcrson woud bothcr
ookingtorsuch aconncction.Jhat'swhy it's thc pcrtcctj ob
torcomputcrs. Sct mcmonahunt, and mmight hnd cor-
rcations wc humans woud ncvcr mink to considcr. |ust as
thcyvchcpcdmcdicaIrcscarchcrshndgcncticmarkcrspoint-
ingtoccrtaint_csotbrcastcanccrandHuntington'sdiscasc,
thcymighttcgroccrswhatkndsottruittopromotctobuy-
crsotcanncd toodorwhatqpcsotmagazincs dog-toodbuy-
crs1cnd to rcad. Jhcsc suggcstions may sound trivoous. ut
ita rctaicrcanwcakpromotions,buckctbybuckct,andgain
aboostotcvcn zpcrccntotscs, it'scausctorushdown aisc
scvcn and pop a magnum otMumm's. Jhcy mcasurc pmht
marginsinthisindustrybythctcnthotapcrccnt.
P Ghani ts about shoppingpattcrns and gcnomic rc-
scarchcrs, I think about putting a thc pcopc wc'vc bccn
taking about- thc groccrs, thc microtargcting advcrtiscrs,
thcmamcmaticgcncticists-into oncroom.Jhcywoudn't
sccm to havc much in common. Yct thcydo. Inncarycvcry
industrythcdatawcproduccisrcprcscntcdbyoncsandzcros.
58 T H N U M R A T |
It a travcsthrough thc samc ncwork andvies torspacc in
thc samccomputcrs.Jhismcansthat thcmathcmatictoos
uscd to ayc thisdata C cross discipincs and industrics,
tromthcbarnyardtote aiscsotSa, mostchortcssy.Jhis
has a ncary miracuous mutipicr cdcct-thc brains work-
ing in onc industry can powcr brctbroughs in many oth-
crs. Kcscarchcrs longisoatcdin dihcrcnt hcds, dihcrcnt dc-
partmcntsoncampus,dihcrcntindustricsarcnowsovingthc
samcprobcms.Jhcanaysisotncmorks,torcxampc,cxtcnds
tromphysics tosocioog. Inascnsc, otthcsc scicntists arc
workinginoncgobancworkcdaboratory.
Alotwhichis to saythatrcscarchcrswhosctooswionc
day dcciphcrthc sccrcts o|your shopping-pcrhaps thcsub-
conscious pattcrnsyoudont cvcn knowaboutyct -may not
bcworking tor V-Mart or Googc or Ghani's tcam at Ac-
ccnturc. Joday thcy might bc studying cartmorms or nano-
tcchnoogy, or maybc thc bchavior otOcmocraticvotcrs in
swingstatcs. Iorcxampc, oncr
_
scarchcratMicrosoh,Oavid
Hcckrman, was hard at work buiding a program to comb
c-maitrcandidcnt|qspam. Hckncwthatspammcrssys-
tcmaticay tcrcd thcir mings to brcak through cvcr morc
sopbisticatcd dctcnscs. Hc w dcaingwith a phcnomcnon
simiar in naturcto bioogica mutations. His systcmhad to
anticipatcthcscvariations. Hcckcrman, aphysician a wc
acomputcr scicntist, kncwthatithistoocouddctcctmuta-
tionsinspam,itmigtsoworkinmcdicinc. Surccnough,in
zooj,hcshihcdhistocustoHI thcvirusthatcauscsPLo.
Histoos,wim thcircgainspam, coud cvcntuycadto
an^IOSvaccinc. It'smcvcrysamc sohwarcj code," hcsays.
In thc Numcrati's word, brcthroughs can comc tromany
dircction.
5 H 0 P P R b9
v
COut Dk rOk a momcnt thc cothcs you put on this
morning. !tKayid Ghani andhis cocgucs had apicturc ot

youasyoumadcyourwaydown tobrctastoroutthcdoor,
woud thcy kow trom your cothingwhat tribc to put you
in: Chanccs arc, thcycoudcomc prctq cosc. Humans hav

spcciaizcd in trib rccognitionsinccwc cimbcddowntrom

trccs. It'sasurvivaski.
uthowdocs Ghani tcachthatskitoamachinc: Com-
putcrs, ahcr a, havc to hgurc out what kind ot cothing
wc'rcbuyingitmcy'rcgoingtocassiqus a dwccbs,busincss
droncs,hip-hoppcrs,carthmothcrs,orwhatcvcrothcrtashion
buccts thc markctcrs crcatc. Itis truc, otcoursc,thatarmics
otpcopc coudhipthroughthcsc garmcnts, givingcach onc
atriba t. utthis proccdurcwoudcostabundlc, andUc
workcrs who thcmscvcs comc trom dihcrcnt tribcs) woud
surcydisagrcconwhat's sc, mshion-mrwrd, orrctro. Hu-
mans arc j ust too subjcctivc. Jhis is a job tor computcrs.
Howcvcr, whcn it comcs to classiqing dothing, Ghani say,
machincs tarc no bcttcr than thc mostcuccss othumans -
atcttornow.SothcAcccnturctcaminthcChicagoabhas
todcat.
Hcrc'show.Jhcyhircagroupofpcopctotcacthccom-
putcr.Jhcsctraincrssogthroughaqucstionna|rctromon-
inc dcpartmcntstorcc

taog. Iorscvcra hundrcd garmcnts,

thcyanswcrascrics otmutipc-choiccqucstions. Is i

torma
orcasu: Is it busincss attirc: n ascac otonc to tcn, how
sporty is it: How trcndy is it: Vat agc group is it tor: n
andon. Scvcr pcopccvuatc cad itcm.Jhissmoomsovcr
mcir individua quirks and produccs aconscnsus. P mc hu-
mansswcr
_
cscqucstions,
t
hccomputcrcarns about cach
piccc otcothing. Ititwcrc hu

an, pcrhaps itwoud bc abc

to dcvcop an cyc torwhat's sporty andwhat's hip, and thcn
bcabcto cIassiqthcrcstottbchshion univcrscbyitsct ut
50 T H N U M 8 A T |
computcrs don't yct havc such disccrning cycs. Instcad, thc
machinc tocuscs onthc promotionaanguagcthat accompa-
nicscachpicturc.Zest! Hot! Sprngfever! Itcarnsto associatc
thoscwordsw
t
hthcvmucsspccdoutbyitshumantraincrs.
Inthccnd, thccomputcrbuidsupamatrixotwords, a
otthcmdchncdbythcirstatisticarcationshipstocachcatc-
gory otcothing. Bra, tocitcanobviouscxampc,woudhavc
a ncar-zcro probabiiq otbconging in mcnswcar. In cvcry
cxampc markcdbythchumans, itshowsuptorwomcn. ut
thatdocsn'ttcthccomputcrwhcthcraccrtain brais sporq,
cu, orGcn1 Iorthat, itmusthndcucsinothcrwords.
Ghani shows mcthcvocabuaryhis systcmhas mastcrcd.
Hcclupconscrativc"wor
g
s.Jhccomputcrspitsouttou
ser clsic, ble Rlh, ad Lauren. Vords that rankowon
thcconscrvativcscc!Ghanicasitupdaugs."Leopard!
Jhat'sagoodonc."thcrsarcrose, chemie, staps, jir sray
silk, andpltrm. I'dsaythccomputcrhashgurcdoutathing
ortwo. cnGhaniasksittor high brand appca," DK
andimported show up, ongwth that now mmiIiar duo ot
Rlh andLalren. (Jhissystcm, GbanicxpIains,hasnotan
undcrstanding otcontcxt. \nikc othcr artihcia intcigcncc
programs,itisunburdcncdbygrammar. Itjustpowthroug
thc Lngishwordsit hascncountcrcdand pcgs cach onc to a
sctotprobabiitics. )
!iguringoutth

t accrtainwhitc bouscisbusincss attirc

toratcmacbabyooomcrismcrcysrcponcIorthccomputcr.
Jhc morc importanttaskis to buidaprohcotthc shoppcr
whobuy thatbousc. Lct's sayi

's mywtc. Shcgocs to Ma-

'sandbuys tourorhvcitcmstorhcrsct Lndcrcar, pants,
a coupc olbouscs, mayc a bct. Al otthc itcms ht that
boomcr prohc. Shc's coming into tocus. Jhcn, on thc way
out shc rcmcmbcrsto buy abirthdayprcscnttorourt6-ycar-
5 H 0 P P R 5!
od niccc. Last timc wc sawhcr, this girwaswcaringback
clothingwithaototwritingonit,mostotitangry Shctod
us shcwasa goth. So mywitc gocs into an atcrnativc" scc-
tion and-whatthc hc!-picks up onc otthosc dogcoars
bristingwithsharpspikcs.
How docs Ghani's systcm intcrprct this surprising dcvi-
ation! |aimc Carbonc, a protcssor ot machinc carning at
Carncgic Mcon, thinks about thcsc issucs a ot. Inmccary
days,hcsays, consumcrswcrcohcnavcragcd. Hcnoticcdthat
Aazon.com,torcxampc,sawthathcw intcrcstcdinCivi
Var history and in computation bioog So it combincd
thcm.Hcgotrccommcndationstorthchistoryotbioogyand
thcnorth-southdividc onsomcscicntihcqucstion. Jhcav-
cragcmodcingdocsn'tworkwc,"hcsays. Vc'rcnotthc av-
cragc of ourintcrcsts." Jhc ncwcr approach is to usccustcr-
ing sohwarc. Jhis dividcs his intcrcsts into dihcrcnt groups
andgivcshimrccommcndationsbascdoncadonc.
Lct's saymy witc's purchascs wcrc custcrcd. Jhc systcm

coudookat most othcrpurchascs andconcudcthatshc's a
tcmac boomcr. Jhc dog colar! It's what statisticians Ca an

outicr. In thcsc cary days, it's somcthing that's satcr to ig-

norc. utasanaysisgctsmorcsophisticatcd,itwiatconto
thosc bits otourivcs thatappcar to bc dcviations.Acr a ,
whichdctaisarcmorcikcytoayusbarc,ourday-to-daybc-
havior that appcars norma" or thc apparcnt quirks that wc
ohcn work to hidc! A dctcctivc wi opt lor thc outicr in a
NcwYorksccond.Jhcmanctcrmight too. ut it's tough to
makcscnscotsuchdatawithautomaticsystcms.
Inanycasc,supposcthatncxtwcckmywitcrcturnstomc
samcstorcandbuyspicrcingtoosandgrccnhairdyc.Atthat
point,thcsohwarcmigtturnthcspikccoarshcpurchascd,
thatapparcntouricr, intoitsowncustcr. Sowhatwoudthat
5 T H N U M 8 A T |
ncw custcr tc us about hcr: Hard to say. Is shc a middc-
agcdprotcssionawho commutcs Mondaythrough Iriday in
sobcrattirc andthcn, onwcckcnds, straps onthcspikcdco-
arandgocsgoth:/oudbc. rpcrhaps shc's buyingtortwo
pcopc. Ghanisaysthat somc systcms ingroccrystorcsookat
thcdihcrcntcustcrs andtocomctoconcusionsaboutthc
compositionolatamiy. thcrs ookatthcdihcrcntsignas as
varying dimcnsions otonc pcrson. Somctimcs, though, mu-
tuay cxcusivc" purchascsinthcsamccart-smasocks and
bighocs -indicatcthatmorcthanoncpcrsonisinvovcd.
Acccnturc's automatic tashion mavcn isntyct grapping
with such subtc distinctions. It's sti in thc rcscarch phasc.
utonccthist_cottcchnoogyisinthcmarkctpacc, storcs
wibavc strongsignas as to what typcs otshoppcrswc arc.
Atthcsamctimc,thcy'bccompiingcvcrmorcdctaicdand
vuabccustomcrists.Pwc'scc,pcntyotothcrmarkctcrs,
suchas thoscindatingscrviccsorpoiticagroup,woudpay
richytor, say,alist otto,oootrcndyGcnAwomcnin Scattc,
Chico, orMiami.Andycs, thcrcwbcivcymarkcts, no
doubt, torassortcdvaricticsotgoths.
LET
'
S SAY YOU go to a dcpartmcnt storc with a shopping
ist. Ityoucomcbackmissingacoupcotitcms, thcstorchas
taicd an important tcst. Lvcn ilyou ocatc and buy cvcry-
thing on thcist,yourvisit, homthc storc's pcrspcctivc, tas
short otan unquaihcdsucccss. No, thcyantyou to stum-
bcuponcountcsstcmptationsasyoumakcyourwayup and
downthc aiscs. Inthcirdrcams, you tcctcr up to
t
hc chcck-
out undcr such apic otscrcndipitous hnds thatyouhavc to
payayoungassistantortwotohcpyouugittothccar.
How to mc that happcn: Jhc hrst stcp is to map our
5 H 0 P P R 63
migrations through thc storc. In thc od days, somc storc
managcrs and muscum curators woud gaugc toot tramc by
thcwcaronthchoortics.Jhcnmcywoudrcdcpoythcirol-
tcring to drawcustomcrs ohthc bcatcn paths. ut that ap-
proacbisatadsowtorthcNumcrati.
Ghaniandhistcamhavcanomcridca.Pwcwaaround
thc Acccnturc omcc, camcras hanging trom thc cciing arc
trackingour cvcrymovc.Jhcrc arc about (o otmcm, Ghani
saysmattcr-oI-tactIy. Frommypcrspcctivc,it'sinsidiouswork-
pacc survciancc. Vith this kind otspy nctwork instacd
inmys|scrapcromccs inNcwYork, I thinkI'dhndmysct
rationing my trips to thc bathr

om. ut Ghani and his co-

cagucsvicwthccamcrasasjustoncmorccxpcrimcnt,thisonc
to track workcrs and customcrs. JhcAcccnturc workcrs arc
ohcringmcmscvcsasspccimcns,andthcydon'tsccmtomind
a bit.
Jhist_c otmonitoringsystcm isntthatrccvant toAc-
ccnturc's absctting,whcrcthchowotintormationcountstor
morcthan bodiymovcmcnts. ut Ghanisccsgrowingnum-
bcrsotcamcrastrackngthcmovcmcntsotcustomcrsandcm-
poyccsinbigstorcs,hotcs,andcasinos.Jhcycoudasohnd
ahomcintactorics.Suchcamcrasarcrcadyinstacdasasc-
curitymcasurc, Ghanisays.Sonowit'sjustamattcrotgiving
mcccraanothcrjob.
Vith this t_c ot snooping tccbnoog, managcrs can
start scrutinizing our movcmcnts. In thcsc cary days, thcy
tocus morc on ovcr pattcms ottrc man onindividuas.
Jhat'sbccausctodays camcrashavc to@yvision. Jhcysccus

as ittc morc thanmoving burs, Ghanisay.Jhdbchard-

prcsscd to idcntiq our taccs, cvcn itwc stood pcrtccty sti,
gazcd up at thcm, and mouthcd, cvcr so sowy, our namcs.
Most automatic survcicc systcms, which sccm to rccog-
54 T H N U M 8 A T |
nzc taccs sO Wc n te mOVcs, dOn`t yct WOtk sucb magC n
tbc tca WOtd. LOu_as PtnOd, dtcctOt at thc nsttutc tOt
Natbcmatcs and ts PQQcatOns at tbc \nVctsty Ot Nn-
ncsOta, says tbat taca tccOgntOn Was OVctsOd as tat back
as tbc !6os. Kcscatcbcts atc mng QtOgtcss, PtnOd says,
but t QcOQc statt tcyng On taca tccO_ntOn systcms tO-
day, tb`tc gOng tO bc butncd.
oO bOW W PcOcntutc`s camctas gck Out ndVdua WOrk-
cts and sbOQQcts Lban nttOduccs mc tO Wbat bc s mas-
sVc tcdundancy. bs nVOVcs gcttng Ots Ot Oamctas tO WOtk
tOgctbct as a tcam. Lacb Onc QtOVdcs a bt Ot dcta. t`s a ttc
kc a gtOuQ Ot Wtncsscs WbO scc a tbct dasb by. Lnc mgbt
tcmcmbct bs tcd hat, anOtbct tbc bandagc On bs band. P
mtd QOnts tO tbc acy hc tan dOWn. n Pcccntutc`s casc, tbc
systcm Can sttcb tOgctbct tbcsc smdgcns and cOmc uQ Wtb
a gucss as tO WbO cacb but s mOst kcy tO bc. bcy can bc
Qtctty sutc, tOt cXQc, abOut tbc dcntq Ot a sbOH, datk-
batcd hgutc Wcatng a buc shtt WbO cmct_cs ttOm Lban`s
Omcc aOOOmQancd by a tact sttangct Wtb an Oddy std
ncck [mc, bad hOtc QOWs) . otatutc, OOOts, and tbc Qattctns
Ot mOVcmcnt a ndcatc tbat thc QctsOn s Lban. Jbc sys-
tcm makcs smat CacuatOns abOut tbc Otbct PcOcntutc cm-
QOyccs On tbc bOOt. bs QtOduccs ttucKOads Ot Vsua data.
PcOcntutc`s cOmQutcts usc tbat ntOtmatOn tO tccd a sOtts Ot
aayss. bcy can Otcatc cbats sbOWng cacb QctsOns mgta-
tOty Qattctns, sOca bubs, and ycs, cVcn batbtOOm Vsts. om-
at anayss OOud bc tOcuscd On us as custOmcts. n tmc, Qct-
baQs a stOrc W tccOgnzc us by Out mOVcmcnts n tbc ascs
as kcy buttctbcs Ot batnaccs, Ot ccn QOtcnta sbOQhcts.
Pnd as tbc taca tccOgntOn sytcms mQtOVc, tbcy may sQOt
tbc batnaOcs amOng us thc mOmcnt Wc cntct tbc stOrc.
t cctas dOnt Qck us uQ,

a tadO tccbnOOgy knOWn as
5 H 0 P P 8 55
RIOjustmight.Jhcsc arc ittc computcrcipstastcncd to
a piccc otmcrchandisc, a shoppingcart, orcvcn a custo

cr
oyatycard. Lach chiphasauniquc numbcr, idcntiqingthc
itcm or thc shoppcr. utunikca bar codc,whichhas to bc
passcdundcrascanncr, thcsc chips canbcrcad byradiosig-
nasscntbyanautomaticrcadcrinthcarca.It'sgrcatlorogis-
tics. pcn ahugccargotruck, and
|
nstcad otpiing through
itandscanningcachbarcodc,thcchipsatransmitthcirdata
atoncc. Jhc dctaicd contcnts otthc shipmcnt pop up in a
spitsccond.
Jbcsc sc ch|ps can track us in storcs and at convcn-
tions. AianccJcch, a company inAustin, Jcxas, puts mcsc
radio tags intothcIO badgcspcopcwcararoundthcirnccks
or cippcd to thcir apcs at tradc shows. Jhc company aso
puts rcccivcrs into thc boothsthcyvisit.Jhcn, whcn IBM or
Jcxas Instrumcntswishcs toknowwhovisitcd its booth,A-
ianccJcch can givc thcm thc namcs otthc pcopc (at cast
thoscwhoagrccd to participatc) , thcircompanics andindus-
trics, and thc amount ottimc thcy spcntin thc booth. Jhcy
can cvcn scchowmuch timc thcscpcopc spcnt visitinga ri-
v'sbooth. Ityouookat mchowotcustomcr data, it's as it
thcwhoctradcshowistakingpacconthcIntcrnct.
Imagincwhatwoudhappcnitrctaistorcsusc thcsamc
tcchnoog. Somc arc moving in that dircction. Gcrmanys
Mctro, thc word's hhh-argcst rctaicr, is cquipping smart
cartswithradiotransmittcrs inscvcra otitsstorcs.Jhctcch-
noogy, saysAbrcchtvonJruchscss, aspokcsman tor Mctro
in Osscdor[ is mcant to providc shoppcrs with cnhanccd
scrvicc but not to compic thcirshopping-rcatcd data or to
prohcthcm OataprivacyisatarmorccxposivcissucinLu-
ropc than in thc Lnitcd Statcs.)P shoppcrs pusb thc smart
cart, thcy scan thc bar codc otcach itcm thcy toss in. Jhis
55 T H N U M 8 A T |
inlormation is scnt bywircIcss connection to thc computcr,
and, much Iikc a drivcr cruising throug an automatc toII-
booth, mc shoppcrc roII thc ctoutolthcstorcwithout
stoppingtopay. JhctcchnoIogyhastakcncarco|that.
ymappingthctraiolthosc scans, Mctro can tracc thc
minutc-by-minutc wandcrings olcach shoppcr. Evcn with-
out building pcrsonaI prohes, Mctro's anaIysts wI bc ablc
to study pattcms. Jhcymaydiscovcrthatmanyolthc most
carclrcc, s|-thc-Iimit shoppcrs nccrcncountcrthc dispIay
inaisIcthrccpromotingsinmIIyrich andcxpcnsivc) cIgian
chocolatc. |ustIikcawcbsite,` thcstorcha plentyoIoptions
tocnticctheconsumer.ltcanhagthcchocoIatcsonthcsmart
cart scrccns. Lt it can tweak thc Iayout of thc storc, pIac-
ing thc chocolates aIong mc pathways most popuIar among
spcndmrihs. Pitythedictcrswhodaretoshopinthcmarkcts
olthcMumcrati.
C H A P T E R 3
Vter
Qut cx. Vhodidyouvotctorintpp6!
Oocs that qucstion inspircjusta tracc otpanic! Ooyou
worry that you might not rcmcmbcr, or pcrhaps that you'
burt thc namc ot a candidatc who wasnt cvcn running!
Maybc you rcmcmbcr pcrtccty wc, but you'rc atraid that
ityou tc mc, I wi hound you with aggrcssivc toow-up
qucstions.Youvotcdtor HIM! Vhatin thcwordwas going
throughyourmind!
Ityoucxpcricnccthcsctcarsandanxictics,wccomctothc
cub.Yourcinthcmajority.Jhoscwhoactuycnjoypoitics,
who naturaythinkabout thcword thc waypoiticians do,
arcaminorityinjustaboutcvcrycountry. utbccauscmcm-
bcrsotthiscocubrunthcpoiticarcm,thcytcndtoana-
ycpoiticsasitcvcqonccscvicwcditwithcquahscination
andzca,andthcsamctocusonissucs. Jhat'swhythcytaito
conncctwithvotcrs, says|oshuaGotbaum,orcvcn to undcr-
standthcm.
|oshGotbaumisacard-carryingmcmbcrotthatminority.
Hcscrvcd, asayoungman, inthcCartcradministration, and
hcrcturncd inmiddcagctoworktor Prcsidcnt Cinton. Hc
hcd scnior posts at thc Pcntagon, thcJrcasury Ocpartmcnt,
58 T H E N U M 8 A T |
andthcmccOManagcmcntandudgct.VcnthcRcpub-
licans run thc show, hcmakcsmoncyandworks|or chariq.
Atonctimc,hcwasapartncratLazardFrrcs,thcinvcstmcnt
bank.Acrthctcrrorattacks o|zoot,hchcadcdthcScptcm-
bcrtt Fund. Latcr, hcmovcd to Honoluluandlcdthc chort
to pull Hawaiian Airlincs out o|bankruptcy. Mow, as I talk
tohim, hc'sattcmptingtorcsuscitatcancducation start-up in
McwYork, homomccshighabovcWal Strcct. uthc'scagcr
togctbacktoworkingingovcrnmcnt.Maturly, thckcyisto
hndmorcpcoplc inthcL.S.populationwho couldconcciv-
ablyvotc|oraOcmocraticcandidatcandtocomcupwithj ust
thcrightpitch|orcachvotcr.Jhctroublc,hcbclicvcs,isthat
millionso|potcntialOcmocratsarccamouhagcd.Foroncrca-
son or anothcr, thcypass |orRcpubicanvotcrs. Somclivc in
McMansions with |airwayvicws and drivc Hummcrs. Somc
nodoubtcarrywcapons,rcvcrcthcmiIitary, orspcndmucho|
thcir|rcctimepraying.thcrsarcstayinghiddcnbccauscthcy
havcn't bccn much imprcsscd to datc by Ocmocratic candi-
datcs.Jo turnthcscpcoplcintoOcmocraticvotcrs, Gotbaum
says,hispartynccdstosurpassthcRcpublicansinpinpointing
potcntiasupporters|romwiminmassivcdatabascs.
Jhc Rcpublicans sct thc standard |or politic microtar-
gcting in thc zoo( clcctions. First, thcylramcd thc issucs in
a |rcshway, avoidingmucho|thcpolicyvcrbiagc thatborcs
orbothcrsmostvotcrstodistraction.Jhcy|ocuscdonsimplc
dcsircs closcr to thc hcartthan thc hcad. Jhings likc |ccling
sa|c,lovingthcir country, andbcingsurroundcdbypcoplco|
|aith.Jhcyspcntmillionsonpolling,andthuscdwhatthcy
carncdtouncarththcirtargctvotcrs.MatthcwOowd,anaidc
to Prcsidcnt ushslongtimcopcrativcKarlRovc,joincdwith
twocoauthorsto dctaiIthis triumphinthczoo6bookAppl
bees Amerca.
MowGotbaum,hisauburnhairandmustachctingcdwith
0 T 8 59
grayhassctuphisownpoiticahrm, SpotightAaysis,and
raiscdst. ; miioninvcnturcmnding.HcvicwsitasthcOcm-
ocrats' ripostc. Succcsswim Spotigtcoudbchistickctback
to powcr. Jhcwayhc sccs it, thc parq that hgurcs out how
to harncss thc powcr otdata, and thc brains otthc Numc-
rati, is going to win at thc pos. It's not that microtargcting
wlcorrathc omiionor6omiionvotcrsthataprcsidcn-
tia candidatc nccds to win. Jhc traditiona approach-biz-
zardsotJVadsandimmcnscphoncanddoor-knockingcam-
paigns -bringinthcion'ssharc. utinraccsdccidcdbyonc
orwo pcrccntagc points, orcss, thcparty that pinpoints a
tcw thousandindividuavotcrshcrcandthcrccoudcocout
ontop. Itthcdatawccmit givcs ohcvcn thcsightcstwhih
otwing votcr," thc poitica Numcrati Wm bc hot on our
tracks.
Jhishasimpicationstorthcdccidcds"too, aspoiticians
start using thcir data to dcpoy imitcd rcsourccs morc cm-
cicnty. Ityou comcacross as a satcvotc, mccandidatcsyou
cndorsccandircctthcirpromiscs andstu
g
pspccchcstoward
wavcringsupportcrs. Jhis has ong bccn thc casc. ut tradi-
tionay, poiticoshavc appccd to

cntirc tcncc-
_
itting cans,
crahing onc appc tor rctirccs in

Iorida, tor cxampc, and

anothcrtorworricdautoworkcrs inMichigan. Now, though,
thcNumcratiarccocctingf morcdataonthcscswingvot-
crs and can study thcm with grcatcr prccision. Jhis mc
@
m can pacc mcm into cvcr-smacrgroups. P mcy crcatc
and tcst mcssagcs aimcd at cach sivcr otmc ccctoratc, mc
scicnccotthcNumcratiissu
}
pantingthctokwsdomotthc
prccinctchicL.
Jnt s t s THE CHALLENGE Gotbaummccsashctricstohnd
votcs. howdoyou cacuatcwhat movcs pcopcpoiticayi[
0 T H N U M 8 A T |
tOr many Otmcm, tbc cntrc ub]cct tOXc LOmQarcd tO
QOtc, bOQQng a cncb. cOQc Ong tOr tbng. bcyQcK
tbcm uQ. bcy buy tbcm. bcy caVc ccar rccOrd. cn
hyd Lban and b tcam at Pcccnturc dcct yOur uQcr-
markctrcccQt, tbc ccmatccrywOWccKyOubuy, ay,
a bag Otbrgbt grccn Lranny omm aQQc. n a cnc, yOu
VOtc1Or tbOc aQQcWtbyOurcrcdtcard. bacd Onthc Qat-
tcrn OtOtbcr aQQc buycr, tdocnttakc a bgcaQ On tbcr
Qart tO Qrcdct Otbcr tOOd yOu mgbt kc. Jbrc WOrkng
Wc wmn tbc rcMm Ottbc datayOu QroVdc. bc cOmQar-
On WbatWcm@tcaaQQctO aQQc.
OW cOndcr QOtc. Nany QcOQc dOn't kc tO tbnk
Or tak abOut t. bcy wtcb tbc cbannc Or turn mc Qagc.
tb tbc cXQOOn OtncW mcda, mcy baVc tcray tbOu-
and OtncW and cntcrtanmcntcbOcc -many Ottbcm, n
tbctOQnOn, aOtmOrcmntban QOtc.atmOrc, L. S.
ctzcn rct tOrma cdOrt tO mcaurc mcr QOtca cnt-
mcnt. tyOu tbnk m kddng, condcr m. Otcr ay
tbat a tcW a tz Qcrccnt OtPmcrcan bOtbcr tO rcQODd tO
thcr QbOnc ca.zt WOrc, trOm a databOunOQcrQcc-
tVc, tbOc mOVcd tO caVc tbcrbOuc On aranydayn O-
VcmbcrVOtc bcbndacurtan. tsccrct.
b mcan tbat QOtca OQcratVc mut dg ntO Otbcr
data tO hnd QOtcnta VOtcr. radtOnay tbcyVc cttcd tOr
QrOXc tOr Our bcbaVOr. Lur ncgbbOrbOOd ucd tO bc a
gOOd QrcdOtOr OtVOtng bcbaVOr. bc amc Wtb racc. but
mOt OttbOcbg catcgOrc abrcakng dOWn. Nc Wak c
and c n OcktcQ, andWcbaVc mOrccbOcc. Or tbc knd
Otanay LOtbaum Want, bc mut dcVc dccQcr. c htO
hnd Out nOt utWbcrcWc Vc and WOrk but Wbat Wc OVc,
WbatWc tcar, WbatWc tcc dccQ dOWn abOutQuby ubcct
kc cOmmunty and cOuntry. bc matbcmatc Ot QOtc,
0 E R !
strangcas itmigt sound, has to cxtcndbcyondthcgrasping
hngcrs otourinncr shoppcr and pungcinto tcrrain thatics
coscrtothcsou.Jo gctthcrc,rcscarchcrsmustmovcf past
mousc cicks and Googc qucrics, thosc commodity pics ot
pcrsonadatathat coursc through thc Intcrnct. Jhis invovcs
askingots otqucstions.

Hcrc's onc, just to givcyou an idca. Vat is your com-

munity!Conjurcitupinyourmind.Ityoucouddrawapic-
turc otit, whatwoud it ook ikc! Voud it1caturc pcopc
wavinghomwindow andporchcs inthcgroup othouscsup
and down your strcct or thc apartmcnts on your bock! Arc
mcsc physica ncigbors your community! r is it a group
wim sharcd vaucs, pcrhaps bascd in a church! Maybc your
communiq is a widcsprcad Intcmct group gathcrcd around
abogthattocuscsonOostocvs|snovcsorChianti. Maybc
youhavcancvcnmorccxpansivcve otcommunity, which
incudcs a otuswho ivcanddic onthis bucump otrock
circing thc sun. Ior somc, our community cxtcnds to ani-
mas.Yctj ustimagincthcbank
[
ooksapoiticianwircccivc

n ccrtain quartcrs itshc cvokcs a community mat incudcs

pigcons and piotwhacs. SomcvotcrsW writchcrohas an
aicn. Yct tor othcrs, shc's a kndrcd sou. It's sccond naturc
torskicdpoiticianstotwcakthcirmcssagc,orccnthcirac-
ccnt,tordihcrcntaudicnccs.ut

howcanyourcadthccrowds
whcnthcy'rcdispcrscdmross nctworks!
Jhinkotthchawordsandconccptsthatpop upnpo-
itics. Irccdom. Oc
_
ocracy |usticc. Sccurity. pportunity
Human rigts. Vcath. Poiticiansrchcxivcydrop thcm into
stumpspccchcsandJNads.Yctthcyasparkwidydihcrcnt
rcsponscs. Ior somc, thc wordjutce mcans cxccuting mur-
dcrcrs. Ior othcrs, it's giving poor chidrcn cqua opportu-
nitics in schoo. Itpoiticians coudgroup pcopc according
.

T H N U M 8 k T |
to how thcy vicw thcsc conccpts, thcywould bcttcr undcr-
standthcrolctbatcachpcrsonsecs|orgovcrnmcntinsocicty.
Jhat's what wc cxprcss whcn wcvote. And with that
g
owl-
cdgc,politicians could crmessagcsthatspcakto ourvucs
andappcalto ourconccrns.
Jhiswas a simpler job |or past gcncrations o|politicos,
bccausc wc Acrican organizcd oursclvcs in clcar groups
and workcdh toassimilatc.Tae myparcnts. lntp;(,thcy
movcdto alca|suburbo|Philadclphiawiththcir
_
rcc girls.
lwasntarouudyct.)Jhcypromptlywcntaboutthcbusincss
olhtting n. Jheyboughtabigrcdlymouthstationwagon
andputthcirnamcson

hcwaitinglists|ornoo|thcsnooti-
cstclubsonthccastcrnscaboard, onelortcnnis,theothcr|or
golf Jhcy bcgan attcnding avcncrablc Episcopalan church
|avorcdbythccstablishcdordcr.They subscribcd tothc now
dcmnct) Rpubl|can papcr, thc Evening Bulletn. And likc
mosto|thcirncwncighbors,thcyrcgistcrcdlocallyas Kcpub-
licans.
ltoncolthcpoliticMumcrati atthc timc suchas thcy
wcrc) had b

cn told to crcatc a mathcmat|cal modcl o|my

parcnts,hcprobablywould haveaskcd, "Vybomcr:"Jhcrc
was!ittlcnccd tocustomizcanything

|orthcm.Jhwcrcdo-
inga thcworkthcmsclvcs byadjustingto the loca| norms.
Jhcywcrc squcczing into an oh-thc-shcl|a|gorithm. !t dc-
fned a|arg

and po|itically modcrat

group kown as Rock-

c|ellcrRpublicans.Manyo|thcscLmilicshadbccnRpubli-
cans|ncethcdays olArahamLincoln,whcnRcpublicansin
mc Morthlcdthchgtto dclcat savcryandsavc theLnion.
From oilpaintingson thcwls oFour|ivingroom, a coup|c
o|ourn|nctccnth-centuryanccstorsstarcddownstcrnlyatus.
lalways assumcdthcywcrcRpublicans.Vasntthatwhatwe
wcrc:
0 T 8 J
Inthc cary tp6os, mytathcrvcnturcd into ocapoitics
andwon aspotonthctown board. Hccoudtcyou, bock
by bock,whichhouscs coud bccountcdontor Kcpubican
votcs -and which doors to skip on ccction day. Protcssors
atncarbycocgcs tcndcdtovotcthcothcrway. ) Jhingswcrc
prctty simpc. ut with thc grow otthc civi rights movc-
mcnt and thc Victnam Wa, changcs startcd to pcrcoatc in
ourKcpubicanhouschod.Jhcparqsnomincctorprcsidcnt
intp6q,ScnatorarryGodwatcr, stoodtartothcrightotmy
parcnts, cspcciayoncivirights.Mymothcrtcarcdhc'dpush
us into nuccarwar. So shc bccamc a Rcpubican tor Ly-
donj |ohnson," and shc broadcasthcr suppor

tor thc Ocmo-

cratbypacingabmpcrstickcronourstationwagon. Myta-
t
hcr, houndcdbyaocaconscrvativc coumnist, ost his ncxt
ccction. vcr mc ncxt tcw ycars, itwas as ita oo-ycar-od
dam had brokcn. My parcnts took buscs to Vashington to
march against thcwar. Jhcy quit mc country cubs and thc
bg church. And whcn thcy movcd out otthc housc in thc
car| tp;os, thcywcnt to considcrabc troubc to hndAri-
c Amcrican buycrs, thchrstinthcncigborhood.Atsomc
point duringmispro
_
cssthcybccamcOcmocrats.
Look at thcm trom a poitica postcr's point olvicw,
though, anditwas hard totcthcywcrcntsti Rcpubicans.
Jhcyivcd in privicgcd ncighborhoods and rodc thc stock
markct boom ot thc tp&os. My tathcr continucd to cimb
aboardthc samc commutcrtrains tbat traditionay shuttcd
suburban
g
cpubicansbackandtorthtromCcntcrCity. How
wasastatisticiantoknowthatinstcadottravcingtoarHar-
bor or St. Moritz, this particuar coupc was vacarioning in
Nicaragua, joining a human shicd" to dctcnd thc Marist
govcrnmcnt thcrc trom mc Acrican-backcd Contra rcb-
cs!Thcywcrccamouhagcd.Yctcvcnthoughmyparcntshad
4 T H N U M 8 A I |
abandoncd thc Rcpubicans, thc Ocmocrats didn't know cx-
actywhat to makcotthcm cithcr. LikcmanyAcricans ot
thc minority who arc poiticay cngagcd) , th had brokcn
oosc. Poitics no ongcr dcscribcd thcir inhcritcd idcntity. It
nowhtintoaongmcnuotconsumcroptions. Pciticamai-
ings arrivcd cvcry day, aong with mc crcdit card comc-ons
and gardcning cataogs. Jhcysihcd through thcm, ooking
tor candidatcs and issucs mat appcacd to thcm, and thrcw
thcrcst into thctrash.
Ityouthinkaboutit, mistrcc-rangc shoppinghasmovcd
into most cvcry tacct ot our ivcs. Pcopc now shop tor
ncighborhoods, rcigions, andcuisincsthatsuit thcirilcstyc.
Shoudyoukccpprcparingthcchimichangas orgouashyour
grandmothcrmadcorbccomcavcgan:It'sachoicc. Miions
otus now shop tor cimatcs and cvcn countrics, sctting in
Vancouvcr or arccona, or rctircmcnt havcns on thc cs
outsidc Guadajara. Lvcn mc sopc otour nosc has bccomc
a choicc. O why notpickandchooscinpoitics too:Jhat's
what morc and morc otus do. Jhis mcans that poiticians,
who uscd to ocatc us by our od groupings, must now hnd
t
g
c ncwtribcs and communitics wc torm, ohcn oncs bascd
onintcrcstsorvaucs.JhcwordsDemocrat andRep

blican arc
now toggy od tcrms that tai to dcscribc most otus. P t
_
r
as poIticians arc conccrncd, miions otus arc ost or dont
carc). iikc othcr markctcrs, thcyrc attcmpting to track us
downbytoowingourdata. nythcncanU cngagcus.
Jhis is a ta ordcr. How wi Gotbaum, with his mod-
cstmnding,digdowndccpwithinyouandmcandmasscsot
othcrvotcrs, andscopcoutourphiosophicamoorings:Lvcn
ithctaktoL,OOOpcopc,orIO,OOO,bowcanhccxtcndwhat
hc carns to chart thc poitica currcnts otan cntirc nation:
Adilmostotusdon'ttccikcthinkingortalkingaboutpo-
0 T k 5
itics, what kind ot data wi|| cxprcss our unspokcn and ohcn
unknown) po|itica| convicdons:
Gotbaum smi|cs and takcs mc back to |atc zoo;. t was
prctty ccar, hc say, that Kpub|icans had bccn spcnding
mon to undcrstand thc indcpcndcnt votcrs. got back trom
Hawaii, and thought, `Corporations spcnd a zi||ion do||ars
on markct rcscarch. Wy can`t that rcscarch bc madc avai|-
ab|c to Ocmocrats:` Jhat was my notion. So carly in zoo6
hc cal|cd in mo markct rcscarchcrs and a pair ot po|itic
po||stcrs, and hc dispatchcd thcm to sucy thc va|ucs ot
Amcricans.
Jhc raw matcria| tor this qc ot rcscarch -thc dctai|s
that makc up our |ivcs-is co||cctcd and so|d by a mst-grow-
ing group ot data companics. Choiccoint, hcadquartcrcd in
thc At|anta suburb ot A|pharctta, Gcorgia, is a primc cxam-
plc. Jhc company quict|y amasscs court ru|ings, t and rca|
cstatc transactlons, birth and dcath noticcs. Many ot thcsc rc-
cords havc cxistcd 1or ccnturics in h|c cabincts and courthousc
|cdgcrs. ut Choiccoint cmp|oy an army ot data co||cctors
to harvcst thosc mcts, somctimcs writing mcm down by hand.
Jhcn thcy put thcm into digita| h|cs.
ilcs mat uscd to cxist on dihcrcnt picccs ot papcr in dit-
tcrcnt bui|dings C now bc brought togcthcr. ur proh|cs
start to takc shapc, and thcy can g|idc around thc wor|d on
nctworks. Human rcsourccs managcrs dig up our Choicc-
Point h|cs to scc it wc`rc |ying on our rsums or havc nc-
g|cctcd to mcntion that ycar ot hard timc on Rikcrs s|and.
Wi|c Choiccoint sticks to idcntity data, p|cnty ot othcr
data companics, as Robcrt ` Harrow |r. writcs in his aumor-
itativc book No Plce to Hid; add hcsh and b|ood to thosc
barc boncs. nc ot thc |argcst, Acxiom ot Conway, ^rkansas,
kccps shopping and |ilcsq|c data on somc zoomi||ion Amcr-
5 T , H N U M R k T |
icans -ncaryccryadutinthc country. Aciomkows how
muchwcpaidtorourhousc,whatmagaincswcsubscribcto,
andwhichbookwcbougtwodaysbctorctingthattripto
CubMcdinthcAps. Jhccompanybuyjustaboutcvcrybit
otdataaboutus thatis sod,andth

n thcyscsccctions ot
ittoanyoncouttotargctusinacampaign.
Jhosc companics providcd data, but Gotbaum nccdcd
somconctoturnitintosomcthinguscm -atootohndpock-
cts otswing votcrs.
_
ntcr|. Vakcr Smith, prcsidcnt oIYan-
kcovich. Sincc mccarytp;os, this rcscarch company, bascd
inChapcHi,NorthCaroina,hasbccnsurvcyingthcshih-
ingattitudcsotthcAmcricanpubic. Itcompdcsthcsctrcnds
ina rcport ccdMonitor whoscmotto says it a. at in
thcwordarcthcythinking!"Itw thist_col rcscarch,Got-

baumbcicvcd, matwoudcnabchimtocrcatcancwt_cot
poitica| prohc-to ocatc miions otpotcntia Ocmocratic
votcrs.
At thchcartotMonitor arcthrccscts otqucstions, Smith
tcs mc, hom his omccs inAtanta. Iirst, whatdocs thc m-
turc hod: Oo

s it ook promising: Scary: Lciting: cak:

Jhc sccond qucstion ccntcrs on how pcopcw tarc in that
mturc. How do thcy dchnc succcss: P hcathy mmdy iIc:
Making
[
ics otmon: Grapping ccr upward in thc busi-
ncssword: Gningrcspcctas agood ncighbor, an upstand-
ing mcmbcr otthc community: Jhc third qucstion mcuscs
onthcskisandassctspcopcbcIiccthcywi||nccdtoachicvc
succcss in thc coming ycars and dccadcs. Jhcsc qucstions,
vaguc as mcy sound, gct to most otthc ssucs that havc us
gnawingonourhngcrnaisbydaymd tossingand tumingat
night.at's ahcad, both goodand bad: Vhcrc dowcwant
our ivcsto takc us! Howc wc mc m bappcn:Nkct-
crsinthcautoandtravcindustricshndthcscstudicsuscm|in
0 T 8
dcOdng WbOb tcaturcs tOQrOmOtc n tbcr QrOduOts. tthc
QubO mOOd n thcMonitor takcsaskttsbturn, tOrcXamQc,
aCarmakcrmgbtcmQbaszcantlOOkbrakcsandaObasss tbat
c tbstand a brusng cnOOuntcrWtban Oaktrcc.
csuggcstcdtO|Osbandbs tcamatoQOtgttbattbcsc
Vaucs OOud bc uscd tO QrOhc VOtcrs, omtb says. Jbc dca
Was nOt] ust tO dcntqVOtcrs n a kcy statc Or OOngrcssOna
dstrOt but tO grOuQ cVcry sngc VOtcr n tbc OOuntj aO-
OOrdng tO a sct OtVaucs. LOtDaum w On bOard rOm mc
start. but Otbcrs On tbc tcam tcarcd tbat a OOnsumcr surVcy
.
flOtVaguc Vucs QucstOns WOud cad tO a QOttOa dcad
cnd. omtb bmsctOOudnt guarantcc t WOd WOrk. c
WOudntknOW untWc trcdt, bc say.
oO tbcyWcnt abad. n a maratbOn scssOn n cary zoo6,
tb drcW uQ a surVcy tbat mXcd mc tradtOna AankcOV-
Ob battcry Wtb Ots OtOtbcr QucstOns. Jbcy askcd, tOr cX-
amQc, t takng Oarc Ot Our OOuntrys Obdrcn sbOud bc
tbcnumbcrOnc QrOtty ttbcOOuntry sbOud dO WbatcVcr
t takcs tO QrOIcOt tbc cnVrOnmcnt, lWc nccd tO rcbud
andstrcngtbcn Out sbarcdVsOH OnWbattmcans tO bc tbc
PmcrtOan OOmmunty. Jbcy asO Qanncd tO askVOtcrs WbOb
Qarty tbcy bad VOtcd tOr n rcOcnt ccOtOns. n tbc cnd, tbcy
hgurcdtWOudtakcanaVcragcVOtcrabOut j; mnutcs tO an-
sWcrtbcI(oQucstOnsOntbcsuCcyJbsWas aOttO ask, but
LOtbaum trustcd tbat cVcn QcOQcWbO bang uQ On QOtOa
QOstcrs and Otbcr QbOnc sQammcrs WOud takc tmc tO rc-
sQOnd tOQucstOns abOutmcrQcrsOna Vaucs. cOQckctO
abOut tbcmscVcs, bc say.
cncXtstcQWastO ObOOsc, oooQcOQc tO QartOQatc n
tbcsurVcyJbcscWOudbcOOmctbc tcstgrOuQ, tbcgOdstan-
datd. ntcrVcWngtbcscj,oooWOudbctbcQanstakngWOrk
Otbumans. LOmQutcrs WOud atcr bud uQOn tbc Qattcrns
8 T H N U M 8 A T |
Oucd trOm tbOsc 3, 000 tO Oassq, atWarQ sQccd, tbc rcst Ot
us. aturay, tbs grOuQ bad tO rcbcOt aOrOss scOtOn OtVOt-
crs. LOtbaum madc surc tbat caOb Onc Ottbcm Was arcady
rcQrcscntcd On 1ankcOVObs databasc OtPmcrOan OOnsum-
crs . JbatWay, bs tcamWOud baVc tat dOsscrs On cVcry Qcr-
sOnsurVcycd.JbcyWOudbc abc tO sOc and dOc tbc grOuQ
cVcryWbCbWay. ttbOscIOstOOnOcrncdabOuttakngOarcOt
tbc OOuntrysObdrcnaQQcarcd ddcrcnt n anyWayttbcy
Vcd n Ocrtan tyQcsOncgbbOrbOOds, Wcnt tO OburOb mOrc
Ohcn tban Omcrs, cVcn ttbcydrOVc !OntaOs Or atc susb n
dsQrOQOttOnatcnumbcrs -LOtbaumWantcdtOknOWabOut
t.JbcrcWOudbcnObanksatcsntbssamQc. sQOstcrs
WudstartWtbtccQbOncntcrVcWs andtbcnrcaObas many
OtbOsc QcOQc as QOssbctOrtO!OW-uQ QucsttOnsVatbc n-
tcrnct. [Jbs dcaasOgcncratcdbcatcdargumcnts, LOtbaum
says, bcOausc ts bard tO bnd a rcQrcscntatVc QOQuatOn On
tbcct.JbOscrcsQOndngtOntcrnctsurVcys arc kcytO b
sgbty rObcr, yOungcr, and Dcttcr cduOatcd tbau tbc VOtng
QOQuatOn as aWbOc. butsma start-uQs kc oQOtgbt takc
suOb sbOrtOuts tO savc mOncy and atcr ad] ust tbc rcsuts tOr
tbcbas. )
bysummcrtmc, tbc surVcyOrs bad OOnduOtcd tbcrntcr-
VcWs. Jbc oQOtgbttcamWa stttngOn rcams OtncW data.
LOtbaumaskcdYankcOVOb andOncmOrcOOrQOratcrcscarOb
brm, otrataNark, tO anayctbc ansWcrs abOut Vaucs. "I tOd
tbcm tO gOrc QOtOs, bc says. |ust tc us, tyOuWcrc gO-
ng tO scgmcnt tbs QOQuatOn On atttudcs andVaucs, Wbat
WOudtbc scgmcnts OOkkc
bOtb rcscarObcrs rcturncd a mOntb atcrWtb Qarac rc-
suts. LaOb Ottbcm OOnOudcd tbat VOtcrs tc ntO sX Ocar
Vaucs OatcgOrcs.JbcytOsscdOut tbcsmacstOnc, tbc2yVOt-
crsWbO aQQcarcd tO bc ctbcr angryOracnatcdtrOm tbc QO-
V 0 T 8 9
tOaQrOCcss.O scnsc n budngOamQagnstOr tbcm. Jbat
ch hVc grOuQs. P omtb dcsOrbcs tbcm, tbcy Wcrc tOOuscd
arOundtbcscVaucs.
t. ttcndng OQQOrtunqtO Otbcrs
z. OrkngWtbn aOOmmunq
j. PObcVngndcQcndcnOc
(. OOusngOntamy
;. LctcndngrgbtcOusncss
tdOcsnttakcan adVanOcddcgcc nQOltOa sOcnOc tO gucss
WbC Way a OOuQc Ot tbcsc grOuQs WOud VOtc. ttcnd-
ng OQQOrtunty sOunds kc a OOdc WOrd tOr bccdng-bcart
LcmOCrat. Pnd tbat rgtcOus hm grOuQaQQcars unmstak-
ablyOOnscrVatVc.
LOtbaum saW as muObbmsct c bardy bOtbcrcdWtb
thccXtrcmcs.JbcyWcrchrmy1ntbc LcmOOratOaUdQub-
Oan CamQs. ntcrcstDgy, tbc OOrc LcmOOratO grOuQ, Wtb
j) QcrOcnt Ottbc tOta, Was mOrc tban Oc tbc szc Otts c-
QubOan OOuntcrQart, Wbcb Onybad t6 QcrOcnt. Jbs mcant
tbat KQubOansWcrcmanngtO attraOt manymOrc Ottbc
mddc scgmcnts, tbc sWng VOtcrs. Jbc tbrcc sWng scOtOrs,
grOuQcd arOund OOmmunq, ndcQcndcnOc, and fi aO-
OOuntcd tOr () QcrOcnt Ottbc ccctOratc. Jbcsc Wcrc tbc VOt-
crsWbO gudcdtbc OOuntry trOm rgbt tO ch and baOk agan,
trOmKagan tO LntOn tO busb, tO . . . Wc, WbcbcVcr Oan-
ddatc hgurcd Out bOW tO OOnncOt Wtb tbcm. oOmc Ottbcsc
QcOQc saW gOVctnmcnt as a QOtcnta ay, Otbcrs VcWcd t
Wtb susQOOn.JbcydhcrcdgrcatyOnrcgOn. Pndyct Ots
OVOtcrs n caOb Ot tbcsc grOuQs Wcrc Ocary OQcn tO Qcr-
suasOn. atmOVcdtbcmJO Wn tbcm OVcr, LOtbaum bc-
cVcd, LcmOOrats bad tO aQQcatO tbcr OOrcVaucs. OOmmu-
80 T M N U M 8 k T |
nty, ndcQcndcnCc, ad tamy. If bcand b tcam COUd] ut
QtnQOnt tbOuand OtbccVOtct n a tatc Ot COn_tcOna
taCc, tbc LcmOCtat COud CtM CutOm-madc mca_c tOt
cCb _tquQ. Jbc Way LOtDaum Qanncd t, tbc ogOt_bt y-
tcm WOud OCatc QcthaQ zo,ooo Ot jo,ooo mcmbct O a
CcOan Vauc _tOuQ n a t@t COn_tcOna taCc. If tccatCb
hOWcdtbatmanyntb_tOuQ tcncdtOa Ccttan_OQcta-
dO tatOn Ot QctbaQ WatCbcd a COOKn_ bOW On CabcTV
tbc CamQa_nWOud

tcaCb tbcm Wtba tat_ctcd ad. P mOtc

QtcCcaQQmaCbWOudbctO bOmbatdcaCbOttbcVOtctWtb
Catcmy Cabtatcd cttct and btOCbutc. LOtbaum ddnt
yct KnOW cXaCtyWbat tbOc ad WOud tOCu On. Ot tbat, bc
Dccdcd tO Cc tbc dmOtc tbny.
Jbc oQOt_ht tcam tudcd caCb VOtct VcW tO cc bOW
dccQy tbcy Catcd abOut tbcc uc Ot QOtC and VaU0.
Omc n caCh_tOQWcrcbcaVyCOmmttcd, batd-COtc,Wbc
Otbcr aQQcatcd tO tOCu mOtc On Otbct aQcCt Ottc. t
WOtKn_ Wtb tbc Ot_tna tct _tOuQ, QOt_bt Qt caCb Ot
tbc bVc c_mcnt n tWO, On _tOuQ tbatWa mOtc COmmt-
tcd, Onc tbat Wa c. Jbc mOtc COmmttcdVOtct m_bt bc
batdcttO wDg. but tbcyWctc aO mOtc KcytO Qay attcn-
tOn, and tO VOtc. NOtcOVcr, tbc COmmtmcnt, cQcCay n
tbc mddc _tOuQ, ddHt ncCcaty _na unWctVn_ Oy-
aty tO Onc Qatty Ot tbc Otbct but ntcad tO QatCuat Va
uc. OOWn_ thc ttadtOn Ot COnumct matKctct, QOt-
_bt _aVc caCb Ottbcc tcn _tOuQ a dcCtQtVc namc, uCb
`b b M ` L P a atn ct, c cQct, Ot nnct OmQa.
LOtbaum tcs t, tbcc atc ttbc. P Otu atc mcmbct Ot
tbccVauc ttbc (ad COuntc Otbct) WtbOut cVcn KnOW-
n_ tt. Jbccttbc OtOut baVc nOO_O, nO btOQ, nObOmc
tut| nO QattCuat Cunc Ottc_Ou cann_.Jhcygan a
taCc and ctbnC_tOuQ. n tbat cnsc, tbtc a btKctbOsc
0 T 8 6
buOKcts OtbrOOOO catcrs Or Nars bars buycrs n tbc suQcr-
markcts.
stOQ and try tO tbnK OtanyOnc knOWWbO mgbt bc
a cartb ccQcr. ouOb QcOQc, aOOOrdng tO tbc oQOtgbt
burb, tOOus On tamy and tatb. but tbcy rcscnt attcmQts tO
QOtOzc tbcsc Vaucs. Jbcyrc tbc css OOmmttcd Otthc n-
dcQcndcnOc scgmcnt, nOt Qutc as rambunOtOus as tbc barn
ascrs.LOOKngataOOOr-OOdcdObart, scctbatbarnacrs
tcndtO bcmOtccntrcQrcncuraandmngcmOrcWtbn tbcr
OOmmuntcs, Wbc cartb ccQcrs, as tbcr namcWOud n-
dOatc, tOOus mOrc On tMy satstaCtOn. bOtb grOuQs ad-
bcrc tO tatb-bascd Vng and can cQubOan. but cartb
ccQcrs arc mOrcKcytO KccQ t tO tbcmscVcs, 1nd tbcyrc-
sst markctngntrusOns ntO tbcrQrVatclVcs. [JbcydOnt
sOund kc tbc mOst QrOmsng grOuQ tOr Onc OtLOtbzums
mOrOtargctcd OamQagn Oas. knOW yOu dOnt Kc tbs
KndOtOa, tbcVOuntccrsQrOmQtm@trcad. buttbs Onc
sdbcrcnt . . . )
OOK arOund tbc CObccbOusc Whcrc Jm Wrtng. Pny
cartbccQcrssQQngOaQQuOOnOsarOundbctcJbcOOcgc
studcnt tO my rgbt-sbag@bar, bannc sbrt, antbrO bOOKs
Ontbc tabc-bas bs tcctstrctObcd OutOn aObar. csWcar-
ng baOKOW-Out cds. ttbs s acatth ccQcr, bcs bdng
t.cXttObm, amddc-agcdmanWtbbOtn-rmmcdgasscs
s ]ust gcttng scttcd. c wcars a ncat N-ncOk buc sWcatcr
Vcst OVcr a trcsby rOncd QOWdcr-buc sbrt. LOud bc,
tbnK. tsounday, bcmaybaVcOOmcstragbttrOmOburOb . . .
but sbOudnt bc bc at bOmc, Wtb bs tamy OW hc OQcns
an JQcaQtOQ [cXaOtykc mnc) , and m Qucky rcVsng
my] udgmcnt. OOud bc n tbc QrcscnOc Ota tcObnO-trcndy
gbt LOk, anOtbct cQubOa-canng trbc. [Jbcsc QcO-
QcbOOkcdn Iyy2 tO tbc ndcQcndcnt Oandda Ot. Oss
6 T M N U M 8 A T |
crOt, atOrmcr bgb-tcObcDtrcQrcncur. JbcrQuctcr COusns,
tbc LVO ocntrcs, tcc css cOOnOmOay acnatcd
t
ban tbc
gbtLOksbutWOrrymOrcabOutsatctyandcOOnOmOscOu-
rty) LOnsdcrngWbcrcWcrcsttng,ntbcbcracW)crscy
cnCaVc OtNOntOar,
t
bsman OOudOOnOcVabybcamdcr-
atc nncr LOmQas -sOmcOncWbO!nssts On htncss, bOtb n
bOdy andbaanOc sbcct. c OOks Qrctty bud, atbOugb Wtb
sWcatcrs kc tbat yOu ncVct Oan tc . . . n tbc samc sWng
grOuQ arc tbOsc WbO Oarc mOrc abOut Oarccr satslaOtOn and
matcra suOOcss. tbc LrOssng Luards. LOud t bc n tbc
cnd, c sQcOuatc unt my OOdcc gOcs OOd. ttbs Wcrc a
tasbOn Or tcObnOOgy study, my ObscrVatOns WOud ntOrm
mc. OOuddOOumcnt myOOnOusOns. buttO dVnc tbc QO-
tOa VcWs OtOtbcrs -cVcn tbOsc QcOkng aWay ataQtOQs a
mcrc cght tcct aWay-s mQOssbc. bat s LOtbaums rc-
tran.NOtcrsdOntWcaruntOrms. \ncss gO OVcrtO bs tabc
and cad bm
t
brOugb tbc oQOtgbt QucstOnnarc, tbcrcsDO
Way OtknOWngWbObgrOuQbc bcOngs tO.
Lnc bustcry ahcrnOOn n cW1Ork, ask LOtbaum t
Oantakctbc tcst.1cs a ttc uncayabOut t, WOrrcdtbat
my knOWcdgc Ottbc QrOOcss W skcW tbc rcsuts. but bc h-

nay rccnts, aDd tbc ncXt daybc c-mas mc a QucstOnnarc.

Jbs snttbc ]O-mnutcVcrsOn, m dsaQQOntcd tO scc, but
a DOcd-dOWn samQcr. n tbc OOursc Ottbcr rcscarOb, LOt-
baum cXQans, tbc oQOtght tcam tOund I) QucstOns tbat
QrcdOt,Wtb pzQcrOcnt aOOura, bOWQcOQc WOud ansWcr
tbc Otbcrs. oO tbcy Out tO tbc Cbac. t taKcs mc abOut bVc
mnutcs tO ansWcr tbc mutQc-ObOOc QucstOns abOut rc-
gOn, sCbOOs, and my tccngs abOut my ncgbbOrbOOd ad
OOuntj. cn gct baCk tbc rcsuts, a dayatcr, carn tbat
ma otatcr.Jbs stbccss OOmmttcdWngOttbcOOrc
LcmOOratO grOuQ. ts tbc argcstOttbc tcn trbcs and rcQrc-
0 T 8 8J
scntsIyQcrOcntOttbcVOtngQOQuatOn.PtbOugb&)QcrOcnt
Ottbc otatcrs

dcntqWm LcmOOrats, tbcyrc ndcQcn-

dcnt-mndcd.rcadOn.JbcysccanarmatVcrOctOtgOV-
crnmcnt but stand baOk trOm tbc QOtOa Vanguatd. Jbc
hrcbrand acs Ottbc ot atcrs arc tbc csOurOctus. Jbcy
baVc css cstccm tban ot atcrs tOr cntrcQrcncurs. ctbcr
grOuQsbOWsmuOb ntcrcst ntatb-bascdVng.
tc LOtbaum tbat bcs nOt Wdy Odtbc mark. but as
QOnt Out, Wcnt tO bm and VOuntccrcd tO bc anayzcd.
NOst VOtcrs WOudnt drcam OtdOng tbs. OW Oan bc dc-
tcrmnc WbOb trbcs tbc rcst Ottbc ccOtOratc bts ntO OW
Oanbchnd, say, 10,000 barnasctsnJuscaOOsaOrLuutb
\ntbcOrganzcs thccntrcQOQuatOnntO trbcs, bsQOt-
OaOcntsWOntknOWWbcrc tO start.
Jbs s Wbcrc COnsumcr hcs Oamc n bandy, LOtbaum
says. JO QaOc a Otus n Our grOuQngs [WtbOut baVng tO
knOOkOn mOns OtdOOrs) , tbc oQOdgbttcam drcdgcdYan-
kcOVObs Vast databasc Ot:); mOn OOnsumcrs. [Jbats jj
mOn mOrc than VOtcd n tbc 2004 ccOtOns.) JbrOu@Out
thc summcr Ot 2006, statstOans and data mncrs scarObcd
tOr Qattcrns Wtbn tbc hcs tbat WOud bcQ sOt QraOtOay
mc cntrc VOtng QOQuatOn Ottbc \ntcd otatcs [aOngWtb
mOns OtnOnVOtcrs) ntO tbc tcnQOtOa trbcs.
JO budOurQOtOaQrOhcsandsOrtus ntO trbcs, tbcy
barVcstcd Oads Ottdbtstb Onytbc mOst tcnuOus rcatOn
tO QOtOs. Jbcsc a knOWn as QrOXcs, Or stand-ns. Jbcyrc
Wbat statstOans rcy On Wbcn tbcy dOnt baVc tbc ansWcrs.
crcs an cXamQc. magnc tbat yOurc Oatcrng a Wcddng
Qatqand-hOrrOrs|-yOuVcOstatbctOrmsthcgucstshcd
OutWtb tbcrdnncr sccOtOns. YOurc tOO QrOudOrsOarcd tO
takc mc smQc rOutc ad ask QcOQc Wbctbcr t
_
cy Qrctcr tbc
sausagcs Or mc Vcgctara trOasscc. oO yOu study tbc QcOQc
84 T H N U M 8 k T |
andOOktOtsgns tbatmgbt nKcaObOtbcmWtb Onc dsb
Ot tbc Otbct. Lnc man s tcng Oud]Okcs WtbWbat sOunds
kcasttOngsOOnsnaOOcnt.sOOnsntcs,WtbtbctLct-
man bcttagc, catOadsOtbtawtst, sOyOugVc bmtbcsau-
sagc. AOu gVc tbc Vcgctatan dsbtO tbc sknnyWOmcn, mcn
w QOnytas, a guy Wtb a SAVE THE WHALES buttOn On
bs aQc. PDyODc WbO`s OVctcgbt Ot dtnKng bcct nstcad
OtWnc gcts tbc szusagc. )udgng QcOQc by tbcsc QtOXcs s
Oumsy. 1ct t`s bOW mOst Ot us tbnk. Nc anayzc tbc Qat-
tctns Wc knOW [Ot bccVc) tO dtaW OOnOusOns abOut Otb-
cts. Jbc Otudcst Ottbcsc tOtm tbc tOundatOns OtQtc]udOc
and taOsm. Lhcn tbcy`tc WtOng, Ot untat. Pt tbs Wcddng
Qatq,Qutc a tcW Otthc gucsts W ncVtaby gct tbc WtOng
dsb. OWcVct, tyOu`tc smattn QOkngOuttbcsc ndOatOrs,
yOu`tc t@t mOrc Ohcn Ua yOu`tc WtOng. Pnd t, kc )Osb
LOtbaum, yOubaVc bundtcds of dataQOnts On caOb QctsOn
and a tcam OtstatstOan shtngtbtOugb tbcm, yOu Oan bc-
gtn tOQaOcmOns Otus ntOttbcs. [\suayWc cnduQ bc-
ng gtOuQcdWtbOtbcts n Out bOuscbOd, snOc mOst OtOut
dctas, ttOmtbcszcOtmcmOttgagctO a Fiel & Steam sub-
sOtQtOn, atcsbatcd.)
oO WbOb nuggcts Ot my data W cXQOsc mc [and my
Wtc) a otatcts oQOdgbt`s statstOans Can dcVc tntO a
kndsOtdctas. LatOWncts, omtbtcs mc, atc mOtckcytO
bcLcmOOtats. |c bavctWO Oats.) KcQubOas ttcnd tOWard
dOgs. [c`tc dOWn tO zctO, tbOugb `m nOt baQQy abOut t.)
otNatcts atc mOtc kcy tban tbct mOtc atdcnt OOusns,
tbc csOutOcms, tO bc OOcgc cduOatcd and matrcd, Wtb
Obdtcn Vng at bOmc. [1cs, ycs, ycs.) c otatcts sbOW
mOtcntctcstnOOOkngmanOtbctgtOuQsdO.PsubsOrQtOn
tO agOutmctmagaznc, omtbtcsmc,WOudbcQtOdcntq
mc. (No suOb uOk.) Jbcsc dctas abOut Qcts, kds, OOOkng,
V 0 T 8
85
and OOcgc cduOatOn arc QrOXcs. Jbcy may baVc statstOa
rccVanOc, but tbcyrc a tar Ory trOm cVdcnOc. Ln tbc Otbcr
sdc Ottbc sOac, Qarty rcgstratOn s a Ocar QOtOa statc-
mcnt. (L many ndcQcndcnt-mndcd ot Natcrs, dOnt
bcOng tO ctbctQarty. )PcVcnmOrcOOmQcngsgna s tbc
rcCOrd Ota hnanOa dOnatOn tO a QOtOa Oanddatc. [Ny
Wtc gVcs. tbcr dOnatOns arc nkcd tO mc, m mQOatcd,
] ustasmytatbcrWasbymymOtbcrsbumQcrstOkcr.) hcQOrts
OtcrsOna dOnatOns QrOVdc bard data. Jhcy
[
caVc bcbnd
tbc ncbuOus WOrd OtQrOXcs. ts as ttbc Wcddng Oatcrcr
saW tbc Oud mdWcstcrncr WOhng dOWn a Qatc O trank-
mrtcr bOrs dOcuVrcs. LnOc tbc dDcr bas cstabsbcd bmct
as a sausagc catcr, bs aOOcnt and Othcr statstOa QrOXcs arc
bcsdc tbc QOnt [tbOugbtsst QOssbctbatbc Ordcrcdtbc
Vcgctabc dsh) .
P tar as c hgurc, uncss tbc QOtOa data mncrs tc
mc tO my Wtcs dOnatOns [sbc bas a dbcrcnt ast Damc but
tbcsamc addrcss) , bcndntOa argc OrOWd OtVOtcrs. Jbat
mcans tbcy baVc t dg arOund tOr QrOXcs. Ob Otbcr
Oncstctbc stOryJbc tradtOna rOutc stO tOOus Onncgb-
bOrbOOds, ctbnCty, nOOmc cVc, gcndcr, and OburOb attcn-
danOca Ottbc tcms that rcmancd unObangcd1n myQar-
cmsOascandtacdtOsgnatbcrQOtOascaObangc. rctum
tO YankcOVObs omtb. Ob bts Otdata arc mOst tcng,

ask, mcsc agc-OdVarabcsOrtbctar mOrccXOtngstubabOut

Oats and OOOkng magazncs t dOcsnt baVc tO be a ObOOc,
bctcsmc. cstartsWtbtbc tradtOna grOuQngs andtbcn
uscs tbc ncWcrdata tO bgbgbt mOsc OtusWhO dOnt httbc
mOd. La tbcdctasnmyhc, tbc Onc omtbWOudsczc
Onhrststbat VcnLcmOOratOLscX LOunty, cW)crscy.
LOUntcsaOrOsstbcOOuntryarc bucOr rcd, bc says, andtbats
a gOOd QaOc tO start.
85 T H N U M 8 A T |
Jb augbaby Orudc. tc bm tbat Wbc my OOunty
mayVOtc LcmOOratO, t` cXtrcmcydVcrc. t cXtcnd nOrtb
ttOm tbc tOugb LcmOOratO Ward Ot cWark, tbtOugb b-
cra attc cnOaVc kc NOntOar, and ntO cQubOan ub-
urbs. crcQOndtbatm s nOt tbc cnd Ottbc anay, but
thcbcgnnng.OrLcmOOratOOOuntc,oQOtgbtrunana-
gOrttbm OOkng tOr QObc cQubOan. Jbcc arc QcOQc
tbcyrc cagcr tO btng baCk ntO tbc tOd, Or OOnVcrt. n rcd
OOuntc, tbcyQugn addcrcnttOrmuaOOKngOr gn Ot
buc. ntbccarytagcOttbOrtngrOCc,tbcyrchuntng
tOr cXOcQtOn tO tbc ruc. bOcWbO OOk dbcrcnt atc QO-
tcnta WngVOtcr.
at maKc tbcm ddcrcnt bc data mncr dg dOWn
ntO caOb OOunty and takc aOOk. NOncy tkcy. tOur ncgb-
bOr twO bOuc dOWn mc
t
brcc tmc a muOb a thc aVcr-
agc nOOmc On Our bOOk, Or ttbcy Qcnt twOc a muOb a
dd tOr my bOuc, tbcy tand Out. y dOnt tbcy !Vc Wtb
tbcr OWn knd t mght bc a gna tbat thcy baVc ddcrcnt
Vauc.Jbc oQOtgbt tOrmua OOk at tbcr agc andWbctbcr
tbcy baVc Obdrcn Vng at bOmc. ` tbcc tbng baVc a
bcatng, omttb ay. Ougbq 40 QcrOcnt to jO QcrOcnt Ot
tbcVatanOc nQcOQc`VaucOanbccXQancd]ut byknOW-
ng mcr tc tagc and bOucbOd CbaraOtcrtO. [Pnd O-
OWngmy ce, a OttbOc dcta OnyOOnhrm tbatmyWtc
and htncatyntOtbcQattcmOtaNOntcatrncgbbOrbOOd
tccmng Wtb ot atcr. ) but a tbcy dg dccQcr ntO tbc
data, maybctbcy` hndOmctbngt ct u aQatt. t` at tb
QOnttbatthcytartOOKngat mOrc QcOhO -nOudngtbc
ncWcrbcbaVOra data.
bOud QOnt Out tbat tb QrOtraOtcd QtOOc, WbOb
mgbt tcad kc tbc WOrk Ota ngc anayt DurrOWng trc-
cytbrOugbhcOabnct, OarrcdOutbyaOOmQutcrntbc
0 T 8 8
tncsttraOtOn OtascOOnd. tzQs UrOugbOurnc@bOrs,Our
gcndcrs andctbnOgrOuQs, tOOks at Our magnc subsOrQ-
tOns, OurOrcdtratng. t nOtcs Wbctbcr

Wc

Vc n a mObc
bOmc Or a rOWbOusc, Wbctbcr wcVc cVcr takcn a Crusc. P-
tOgctbcr, t dgcsts mOrc tban IOO ddcrcnt QcOcs Otdata tOr
caOb VOtcr. bObbng uQ and dOWn n tbat sca arc Oucs tbat
cad tbcm-at cast n tbcOrytO QrOhc caC Onc Otus a a
QOtOa anma and tO QrcdOt Our bcbaVOr. Jbcy dO sOOrcs
Ottbcscanayscs QcrscOOnd.
LctsOOkatbOWoQOdgbtmgbt dcntqtbc tcOhnO-Or-
cntcd Kgbt LOK, WbO aCOOunt tOr 6 QcrOcnt Ottbc ccO-
tOratc. (y tbc namc _bt LOks Oks WbO knOW tbcr
WayarOundOOmQutcrsknOWatbccXtratrOksyOuOan dO by
OOKngtbcrgbtsdcOttbcmOusc.JbcrcstOtusOOkmany
On tbc ch. ) @t LcK arc tbc mOrc OOmmttcd batOttbc
my-Otcntcd scgmcnt, WbOb mcy sbarc Wtb LVO ocn-
trtcs.JbcycanQubOan. buttaLcmOOratOOOngrcssOna
Oanddatc C OOmc uQ Wtb a st OJ say, IO,OOO Ot tbcm,
sbc Oan bt tbcm Wtb a drcOt ma aQQca tO tbcr tcObnO-
bcrtaran Vaucs. t m@t strcss, tOr cxamQc, tbat tbc gOV-
crnmcnts brOad surVcanOc Otntcrnct OOmmunOatOns s a
bg brOtbcry ntrusOn On Our QrVa-and tbat sbc WOud
Qusb tOr a mOrc tcObnOOgOay sOQbstOatcd aQQrOaOb to
hndngtcrrOrsts.
Jbc statstOa mctbOd oQOdgbt uscs tO tcrrct Out tbs
trbc s knOWn by data gccK a mutQc dsOrmnatc anay-
ss. \sng tbcOrgna tcstgrOuQ,rcscarObcrs Orcatca mOdc Ot
a @t LOk tbat tbcyW tbcn aQQy tO tbcVOtngQOQua-
tOn aI argc. Jbc mOdc cnOaQsuatcs a rankng Ottbc dctas
mOst kcy tO sct caOb grOuQ aQart. Pssumc, omtb tcs mc,
tbat mOstOttbc Kgbt LOKs n oQOdgts surVcycd QOQua-
tOn arc mac, mOst baVc a brOadband cOnncctOn tO thcIn-
88 T H N U M 8 A T |
tcrnct, and most arc wh|tc. Which o|thcsc thrcc variablcs is
most |ikcly todistinguishthcmIromthcothcr tribesi Civcn
thcnaturcotmcgroup, it'slikclytobcthcbroadband. Stand-
ingbyitscl[ it's thcrougcstoIprcd|ctors.PlcntyoIushavc
broadband.ButthcIocusisonthcstatisticalgap,orvariance,
inbroadbandsubscriptions. How muc moreohcndoRght
Clickshavcthcm thanthctcst oIusi Smith`s tccalculatcs
thatnumbcranduscsittobuildthchrstpicccoIthcmodcl
hc proccss continucs.hc tcam hnds thc sccond most im-
portantvariablc,andthcthird,andkccpsIccdingthcmtothc
computcr.hc rcscarchcrs dont quit, Smith says, until thcy
hnally gctdowtoacatcgory-itmigtbcmc ;oth,
9
r 6oth
-that they dccm statistically irreleant. Maybc thc Hct that
a particular votcr isdogcss ocsnt makc much oI a dihcr-
cncc. Wilc te rcscarccrs havc bccn introducing mc cvcr
lcssprcdictivcvariablcs, thcmachinchas quicuybccn digcst-
in
z
loIthcdImrcntprobabilityrankingandturningthcm
intoamathcmaticalprotoqpcoIaRgt Click.hisisaprc-
liminary modcl. Lsing it, thc machinc C thcorctically sih
through othcr consumcr rccords and succcssmlly pick out
Right Click. Jhc tcam tsts it. lI thc modcl Ialls short and
placcstoomanyBarnRiscrsorCrossingCuardsinthcRigt
Clickpool,thcytwcandtcst an.

hcsc modcls, whcn looscd, C snih out votcrs cvcry-

whcrc.lmagincapackoIbloodhoundroaming Acricascit-
ics,suburbs,andFarmlands. hcithcadsarcntswimmingwith
thcsccntoIsuspcctcdmurdcrcrsandrapiststhoscarcscnsory
data). lnstcadmrcpackcdwithmathcmaticalprohlcs.hc
ncigborhoodsmeyprowlcxistinadatabase.Evcrytimcthcy
passthchomcoIsomconcwhoappcarstomatchoncoImcsc
prohlcs, whethcrit`sa conscrativcBootsuappcr committcd
toindwiduinitiativcand"alloycdbyastrongbclicIinadi-
0 T R 89
vine hand in human afairs") or the nostalgic Stand Pats (who
long for a retur to past vues and feel that modern ambigui
ties "mnace a lifestle committed to patriotism, faith, family,
communit, and morality ) , these hounds paw, whine, bark,
or whatever it takes, in this matrix of numbers, to leave a rec
ord. (Good dog. Smart dog.) Yankelovich, in fact, has now
run Spo
t
ligt's values models through ever name in its j umbo
database. So now, some J]million of us are pegged as unwit
ting members of one or another of Spotlight's ten tribes.
PGotbaum describes this method to me, I'm thinking far
beyond these facifl dogs. If political sleuths can build mod
els Olcertain tes of people, how far cad others go? Aeri
can j ails and prisons house an ever-so-rich and varied popula
tion of criminals. P I write; other facilities, from the steamy
barracks at Guanranamo Bay to holding tanks in the Middle
East, house hundreds of suspected terrrists. Wat if research
ers trawled through the personal data of convicted child mo
lesters and then built a mathematical model of a pedophile?
Would it be okay for schools or churches to screen job appli
Cu by using this meaure? If the tool had a proven correla
tion-say O percent, or 8 percent-would they be meeting
their obligation to protect children if the ignored it? Would
they be legally liable? Wat about those of us who are inno
cent but turn up as false positives in these analyses? Can we
sue? Pthe Numerati advance, there going to be measuring
and profling countless aspects of hua behavior. This is go
ing to rase torturous moral questions, ones that until now we
never knew enough to ask.
Gotbaum tells me tat his project wa a success. His polit
ical snifers, he says, managed to tag the three groups of swing
voters with an accuracy rate of ); percent. In many realms,
getting one out of four wrong would be abject failure. But
90 T H N U M 8 A T |
for a politician in tese early days of microtargeting, reaching
7,500 voters with a targeted message is cause for celebration,
even if the message spills over to another 2,500. That's a far
higher hit ratio than broadcast TV can achieve. To reach my
communit in North Jersey WU a political ad, for example, ,
candidates ofen have to buy airtime on expensive New York
stations. This means that their message spills to millions in
New York and neighboring Connectcut who can never vote
for them. Theyre also paying to reach loads of children, illegal
immigrants, and the signifcant crowd of eligible voters who
dont bother going to the polls. For campaigns accustomed to
such staggering degrees of waste, rea<hing a targeted voter on
. three out of four tries sounds amost too good to be true.
Lookng at it te other way, one quarter of us -43. 75 mil
lion A(rican voters -are pegged to the wrong tribe. Got
baum says tat the errors put voters into a neighboring group.
In other words, the system is almost right and doesnt mis
take Bible.thumping conservatives for Communists. But still,
what kind of science gets it wong a quarter of the time? In
to words: this one. Here, as on the other stomping grounds
of the Numerati, the key is to forget about the truth-or at
least put it to one side. Wile trut is vital and higly relevant
in the world of machines (aviation engineers swear by it) , the
kind of statistical analysis we're ,discussing here, whether it's
predicting our behavior as house hunters or wine shoppers,
is by its nature approximate. It's based on probability. It in
volves all kinds of proxies in the place of real evidence. Truth
is not a make-or-break test for te Numerati. They triumph
if they come up wit better, quicker, or cheaper ansWers tan
the status quo. Google, for example, doesnt provide defnitive
answers. It simply leads us to promising Web pages. In less
than a second, uusualy plunks us in te right neigborhood.
0 T 8 9!
And because the earlier standard in Interet searching ofen
lef us lost and rudderless, Google rocketed to the top. Its ap:
. proximations, crude as they were, turned a crew of algorithm
writing Numerati into a juggeraut.
The same goes in politics. Can the Numerati build mod
els that connect candidates with voters at the right price? Are
there areas where they can whip todays status quo, the pre
cinct chiefs and TV advertising? Increasingly, both parties are
concluding that the answer is yes. That's why political micro
targeting-the domain of te Numerati -is the latest rage.
IN THE EARLY DAYS of 2001, President Bushs chief politi
c strategist, Kd Rove, was still wondering what had gone
wrng. Going into te last 72 hours of the previous Novem
bds elections, the Bush team had been leading in all the
polls -and yet A Gore had won the popular vote. And he had
come within a few dangling chads and one Supreme Court
vote of wnning the whole shebang. How could the Bush team
guarantee that this wouldn't happen again?
Rove gathered strategists over the following months into
the so-called 72-Hour Task Force. Later te task force con
densed their conclusions into a PowerPoint presentation that
circulated within the Republican Party. It called for all kinds
of improvements, from getting out a coherent message to. re
cruiting election-day volunteers. But one of te most promi
nent was micro targeting. "It's the oldest adage in advertising,"
say the notes accompanying the slides. "It is always easiest to
sell people what they want to buy." To that end, Rove's task
force urged party activists to "take every list you can get your
hands on, and add the information to your voter fle. This can
be everyhing from lists of realtors, lists of chamber of com-
9 T H N 0 M 8 A T |
merce members, church directories, professional associations
. . . We must adopt the idea that no list is too small."
In Applebee' Ameria, Bushs campaign strategist Dowd
and his coauthors detail te Rpublican approach. The goal
'
was to map the political DNA of voters in Michigan, an im
portant swing state. Like Spodight, the Bush team combined
surveying with )arge consumer-behavior databases. But the
approach was diferent. The questions hewed much closer to
political issues. Instead of searching for core values, the team
measured responses to political issues that had already arisen
in public debate. It was just a matter of fguring out which
ones moved them. Were voters upset by the prospect of gay
marriage? Did they fear terror attack? Were they outraged
\
by smog or child porn on the Internet? Wen the team got
through te surveying, they combined demographics and sur
vey data to create 31 fnely tuned segments, such as Terror
ism Moderates and Middle-Aged Female Weak Republicans.
Then they used every bit of data they could get their hands
on, from magaine subscriptions to voting records, to peg the
state's voters. "If John Doe earned $150,000, drove a Porsche,
subscribed to a golf magazine, paid National Rfe Associa
tion dues, and told a Bush pollster he was a pro-tax cut con
servative who backed President Bush's war on terrorism, the
Bush team fgured that anybody with similar lifestyle tates
, would hold similar political views," according to Dowd and
his team.
Let's imagine a voter who's harder to pigeonhole than that
gun-toting suburbanite. Maybe he lives on the very same cu
de-sac and makes piles of money, but he voted twice in te past
decade, according to the records, in a Democratic primary.
And he drives a ten-year-old Subaru, a liberal car uthere ever
was one. Hmmm. Political analysts increasingly look at voters
0 T 8 9J
andgivccmnumcricalgradcs,muchlikcFairIsaac'scrcdit-
riskscors. Ina2005 govcmor'sraccinVrginia,|orcxamplc,
cvcry singlc votcr in thc statc rcccivcd a "likclihood scorc,"
|romzcro to 100, thathc or shcwouldvotc |or thc Ocmo-
cratic candidatc,JimKainc.JhcinscrutablcSubarudrivcr I
justdcscribcd migt ratc a 50. Jhis scoringsytcmmadctar-
gctingcasy.JhcKainccampaignwrotcohthcvotcrswithlow
scorcs.Andthhardlybothcrcdwimmoscregistcringscorcs
o|90 orabovc cccpt as potcntial donors) . Jhat would bc
prcachingtothcchoirandawastco|rcourccs. Instcad, thcy
|ocuscd on promising swing votcrs, thosc with scorcs hom
55 to 75. "I|youwcrc a 60, youwcrc gctting communicatcd
with. Vc wcrc all ovcryou," rcca|ls Kinc's victorious cam-
pgmanagcr, MikcHcnry.
ut what mcssagc wcrc thcy dclivcring to mat pool o|
swng votcrs in Virginia |osh Gotbaum would arguc that
thoscvotcrsrcprcscntcdabigstcwo|arnKiscrs,CivicSc

-
trics,andHcarthKccpcrs,garnishcdpcrhapswtha|cwRight
Cl|cks and Inncr Compasscs. His approach would call |or
cachgrouptorcccivcadihcrcntstrcamo|mailandtdcphonc
calls. Evcn thc same issuc-raising thc minimum. wagc, |or
instancc-would bc |ramcd dihcrcnuy. Community-mindcd
Inncr Compasscs migt hcar that thcir ncighbors nccdcd a
dcccnt wagc to livc a hcalthy li|c, whilc thc morc conscrva-
tivc Civic Scntricswould lcarn that a highcr minimumwc
wouldgivchardworkngHilicswhatthnccdcdtomakcit
on thcir own. In thc Virginia racc, Kainc's tcam had to pick
issucsthatwouldappcalto a||o|thcscswnggroups. Follow-
ing a largc votcr surv, th |ocuscd on bcttcr schools and
wdcr roads. ut that was 2005. Hcnrysays that in coming
ccctions, thctargctingwillbcf moresophisticatcd.Hcand
thcrs -cspccially thosc working |or Ocmocratic prcsidcn-
94 T H N U M 8 A I |
tia nomincc arack bama-arc gcaring up lor an unprcc-
cdcntcdcxposionolpoiticawarlarcmccdbydata.
Jhcy bc wrcsting with aycr upon aycr olstatistica
compcxiq lar bcyond

hc tribcs I`vc mcntioncd. Jhink tor

a sccond about onc olthoscirginia votcrs. How much is
a yO worth ilhcvotcs onyoncc a dccadc! Howabout a
whobravcs bizzards andhoodsto makc itto thc pos!Jwo
variabcs, cvc olsupport and ikcihood olvoting, arc both
crucia.Ad nowthcpoiticaNumcratiarcrcachi
_
gintothc
tookitsolcconomists to cacuatc aprojcctcdratcotrcturn
lor ccq advcrtising d promotiona doar spcnt on cach
oncolus. Inomcrwords, howmuchwi itcostto turnyou
intoavotclorthcirsidc!
I w working with a mcorctica cconomist I wcnt to
graduatcschoowt," MarkStcitzistcingmc.Stcitz,aong-
timc1cmocraticconsutant,opcratcsoutolatownhouscjust
upConnccticutAvcnuchomthcccandbookshopsolOu-
pont Circc. Vc startcd tbinking abstracty about thc bcst
way to lormuatc this pro
g
cm," hc says. `Andwc camc up
withthistriangc."Hccickshiscomputcr,andarcd-and-buc
imagc appcars on thc scrccn. Jhis so-cacd simpcx triangc
rcprcscnts tbc univcrscolvotcrsin an ccction. Jhc position
olcac votcr on thc triangc is dctcrmincd by wo cacuIa-
tions. te probabiiq mat thc votcr lavors Kcpubicans or
Ocmocrats,andthcprobabiitythatbcorshcwivotc. Stcitz
drawsa vcrtica|ncuptbctriangc,aso-cacdisoquant.Lach
votcr ong this inc is olcqua vuc, hc says. Avotcr who
cans to thc Ocmocrats ] pcrccnt olthc timc and votcs in
cvcq ccction is on thc samc isoquant-and has thc samc
vauc-asavotcrwho'sIOOpcrccntOcmocratandvotcsthrcc
outoltourccctions.Jhoscwovotcrs, Stcitzsays, arcindis-
tinguishabctome.
"
Histriangc, atthisstagc, isargcythco-
0 T 8 95
retical. Yet as politicos learn more about voters, thell be able
to plug us into more of these tpes of mathematical formulas.
P this happens, the calculations grow only more com
plicated-a trend that plays to te strengths of the political
Numerati. Some votes, it turs out, are worth far more than
others. Each side in an election needs only 50 percent of the
votes, plus one. That one vote at the end could be worth mil
lions of dollars. Just think of the handfl of contested Florida .
votes in the 2000 election between George N Bush and A
Gore. And yet a vote that lifs a candidate to 60 percent, or to
40 percent, has only symbolic value. And that last wavering
voter, according to Steitis triangle, will be the most expensive
to acquire. P the Numerati develop tools to model voters and
measure the efectivtness of campaign spending-its "yield,"
in economic terms -politica parties will be able to look at
each election as a maretplace. P the polls swing, the relative
value of each voter rises and falls. Some of us are cheap, vir
tual throw-aways. Some wil be prohibitively expensive, not
worth the investment. But those of us who shape up as the
diference makers will be the targets of increasingly custom
ized come-ons. Aalysts will know which of us are wrestling
with college tuition and which of us fear that our jobs will
leave for India. Some might even voice a concer about an
outbreak of rabies that threatens our cats. If the politicians get
it right-which is no sure thing-the campaign messages will
address our concers ad refect our values. It'll be as though
the fnally understand us. Who knows? Maybe theyll even
learn not to cal us at dinnertime. We'll feel, if only for a few
short weeks of a frantic campaign, appreciated.
C H A P T E R 4
Blogger .
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" N OW LET ME tc you olmyongtacwhich I havc takcn
timc to tc." Jhcsc words draw mc in. I sip my cohcc and
scrodownthcpagc.
!t's a ongbogcntrywrittcnby awomanwho cashcr-
sctJcars otLust." Shcwritcsaboutdrivinga nightto Co-
umbus, Ohio, w|th hcrboyhicnd, Kcnny, and hcr sidckick,
Liz.Jhc
t
hrccotmcmarchcadcdto an animcconvcntion.
P Uy drivc throughthc night, Kcnnystartstotcc sic. y
mctimcthcyrcachCoumbus,hc's passcdoutonthc hotcj
d`

Kcnnycndsup inCoumbus'sGrantMcdic Lcntcr and

laccs a cmcrgcn appcndcctomy. Kcnny madc his phonc
cs to rcativcs bctorchcwcntundcr," Jcars otLustwritcs.
`dmcandLizwcnttomcwaitingarca.Vc watchcdKll
Bill d rcadamgazincto cachothcrbctorcrcturningto thc
catcwhichwascoscdbutthcyhadthcbcstvcndingmachincs
ikcthconcsthatrotatcdandthconcsthatwcrcrchigcratcd.
Itwas awcsomc."
Jhcstorygocson.It'samcdicasagawovcnwiththcwan-
dcringsandcravingsotaconsumcr. `toncpoint,"shcwritcs,
0 L 0 6 6 8 9
cnny] tbOugbtbcbcardbsdcadaunttakngtObmsObc
assumcdbcWas gOngtOdc durngsutgcry butcnnysut-
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Lust bas tO Omb gngctyOn

tQ, `kc a naugbqnutsc.

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and cXQandng QOO brmmngWtb sOmc OtOur mOst Qct-
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98 T H N U M R A T |
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cts WbO bOd nOtbng baOk, I t_c a mssQccd dabbrca n
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gtcatcXQcnsc, bybtngngtOgcmcttOOus gtOuQs.Jbcscsma
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!00 T H N U
g
8 A T |
not sure what you and I look like in numerical form. That's
one of the things I've come to Boulder to learn.
Kaushansk has smooth rounded features on a wiry frame,
neatly coifed graying hair, and the restless mien of a marketer.
In fat, he's a lawer by training, and he's been running busi
nesses in analytics and data mining for -the past L years. He
. builds and sells them. The last one was Athene Sofare, a
predictive analytics company he sold in 2OOI. W Umbria,
he's focusing the anaytics on blogs.
A bicycle wheel leans against the wall in Kaushansk's
ofce. I ask if he rides. He does, he says, brightening. Ex
tensively. I do too, I tell him. The area around Boulder is a
"dream" for cc'lists, he says. (I hold back from my spiel about
the unexpected biking jewels in New Jersey. People don't care.)
ask him where he lives. He points out the window toward a
anvil-shaped mountain, Flatiron. clives on the other side of
it. He sees . bear out there, herds of elk some mornings, coy
otes. Leave your domestic pets outside aer dark, he says, and
they'll get deoured. He spends weeks on end away from this
mountain spread, ying around the country. He's trying to
convince nearl every tye of company to tune in-throug
Umbri -to what their customers are saying on the blogs.
Kaushansk founded Umbria in 2OOq. Since then, the
company ha built a system tat automatically reads mil
lions of blog posts every day. The frst step, he tells me, is to
learn something about the author of each blog. Is the per
son a mae or a femae? A teenager? Atent-something? A
boomer? The computer looks for clues such as sentence struc
ture, word choice, quirks in punctuation. How many middle
aged men do you kow, for example, who end a sentence like
this: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ? Sometimes the computer reads through a post,
shrugs its digital shoulders, and gives up. It doesn't see the tell-
8 L 0 6 6 8 !0!
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!0 T H N U M 8 k T |
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8 L 0 9 9 R 103
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tOrmuatctbcQucstOns.
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css trba amatOns.LOrtOs muncbcrs,bkcts tOr Lbama,
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tbat amOst a Ot tbc angcr camc trOm Onc trbc. tbc QOwcr
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!04 T H N U M 8 k T |
hunChd over their handsets, sending e-mails and photos and
fooling around wit spreadsheets. The other tdbes -the fash
ionistas, the music lovers, the cheapsktes -shrugged of the
Bluetooth chage. Many of them probably didn't know hat
it was. With this intelligence, mc phone compay, conceiv
ably, could raise the price a few bucks on de handsets favored
by power users, and then ofer them "fee" Bluetooth. Mean
whUe, mcould continue charging everyone else.
This is a n stage in market intelligence . . WhUe still
primitive, it's easy to see where it's headed. The Numrati are
training computers to digest our words automatically The
are coming to conclusions . about who we are and what we
think Pd as these computer systems gain in speed and abU
ity, theyll feast on more of oUr communications, extending _
h beyond blogs. Automatic readers like Umbrias C stretch
into social networks like MySpace and Twitter, the meeting
places of entire generations. They C surf the comments on
interactive video games and dig deeper into our e-mails, pick
ing out our hobbieS d passions and selling that information
to adyertisers. Given technology like Umbrias, scores of com
panies with access to our words will be positioned to track,
minute by minute, the shifing patters of huan thought.
Umbria and its competitors, from Nielsen BuzzMetrics to
Google, are betting that marketers, government ofcials, and
politicians will pay richly for the insights they come up with.
Ad this analysis of our words may be speeding aead even
fster in te shadow. Following te terrorist attack of 2OOL,
intelligence ofcias in the United States gained access to enor
mous Hows of Internet and telephone trafc. The National
Security Agency, which has the largest staf of mathematicians
in the country, is mining the tfc hour by hour.
Until recendy our wordS, whether spoken, tyed, sung,
8 L 0 9 9 R !05
or scrawled, performed their magic beyond the range of
mathematicians. It wasnt just that language, with its count
less shades of tone and shifing nuances, resisted te rigid hi
erarchies of geometers and computer scientists. (That's still
an issue, as we'll see.) No, the problem was more fndamen- .
tal. Our words didn't hang around for analysis. The sentences
we spoke traveled through the air or along copper wires be
fore alighting, every so briefy, in forgetfl minds. They faded
faster than cut fowers. Our written words moldered on pages,
a select few of them stufed away in envelopes and noteboo.
Most of them weren't in the public domain, much less on the
hard drives of powerf computers.
That has changed. For starters, our queries to search en
gines provide a detailed timeline of what online humanit is
interested in-what we're looking for, what we woUld like to
buy But those queries, most of them just three or four words
long, are bare bOhes. They point in a direction but divulge
only odds and ends about the people who write them. Think
about what you searched for online over the past week. Those
queries might trace your pursuit of a high-defnition TV or
your research for a geology project on mc Pleistocene era. But
they coUld easily miss important events in a persons life-the
deat of a parent, perhaps, or a battle against addiction. Out
fts l Umbria are working to glean new marketing insights
from these online rambles. Imagine that they migt want to
create a bucket of several thousand female bloggers tring to
quit smoking. twoUldn't be hard. Now, do they appear more
interested than average in chocolates or in white wine? In these
early days, Umbria is focusing on simpler stuf But a wide
ranging sampler of human life is circUlating on blogs, ready to
be harvested. It's as if humanity itself were squeezed right into
Umbrias ofces, sheltered from the winter winds outside, typ-
!05 T H N U M 8 k T |
ing on command. Once the words show up, they're available
for eternit, to 'be matched, compared, crunched, parsed, and
repackaged as marketing intelligence.
Maybe you don't write a blog and you stay Ohsocial net
works. If so, you could be lulled into thinking that compa
nies like Umbria learn about other people, not you. But
that's not exacdy the case. Umbria and other analytics com
panies are going to school on blogs. Once this ne genera
tion of automatic reading and learning machines scopes out
the blog world, they can broaden their focus to eerything
else we write. In fct, it's already happening. Spam-fghting
companies such as Postini -a division of Google since mid
,2007-sif through millions of e-mails issuing from Fortune
500 companies. They check them for signs that employees are
leaing company secrets or carrying out insider deals. Other
companies sweep through the hard drives of corporate fotil
las of persona computers, scanning words to make sure that
employees arent using the equipment fqr their ow sordid or
, selfsh ends.
Companies ad governments aike are poring over our
|
written words. Most of te snooping is focused on crime pre-
vention. But as the tools improve, the market w change.
Instead of just looking for what we're doing wrong, ' com
panies and governments and pollsters will be eager to learn
what we're buying, where we're going, who we might vote for.
Theyre curious. P Umbria and' others gorge on data in the
blogosphere, they are sharpening the interpretive tools:
I READ Tears of Lust's blog, and it's easy to fgure out quite a
bit abolt the writer. She's a young woman. , She lives in a city
on the East Coast of the United States. If I had to guess, I'd
8 L 0 9 G R !0
say MewYork. utI cant bet on t. I cou|d cometo |ots o
omerconc|usions aboutherpassions, her|ove interests, and
eenwhatshe|kestoeat.
Jhs s a|| c|earto me. utshe'swrtngm my|anguage.
Practca||y ceq word makes sense. Jhe bm news, rom a
data-mnng perspectve, s that ttakes me a scanda|ous hve
mnutestoreadthroughertext.Inthattme, Umbrascom-
putersworkmroug],]OOb|ogposts.Jhismagctakesp|ace
wthnmo domans oarthca|nte||gence.

natura||anguage
processngandmachne |earning.Jheideas smp|e enoug.
JhemachnesHurnthrougthewords, usngmerstatstca|
genusandlormdab|ememorytomakesenseothem.Jo say
that they "understand" thewords s a stretH. It's |kesayng
thatab|ndbat,whchnavigates byprocessingthe geometry
osoundwaves, "sees" theopenwndowtdes mroug. ut
no matter. Icomputers can

draw correct conc|usons rom

mewords meypIowmroug,theypassthe|anguagetest.And
meycanrehnethoseconc|us|ons,addngcontextanda||ow-
ngorcaveats, thenthregettngsmart-or, assomewou|d
havet,"smart."
Fordecades, computerscientstshavebatt|edoverhowto
teach computers1anguage and thougt. Somc have pushed
or a|ogc approach.Jheyo||ow a tradton pioneered by
^istot|e, whch dvdes the entre world oknow|edge into
vastdomans,eachwthtsownacts, ru|es, andre|atonshps.
ne othe most ambitious otheseprojects,CycorpoAus-
tn, Jexas, s tryingto bu|dan arthca| nte||igence thatnot
on|yknow much othe wor|d's inormaton but a|so can
maksenseot.VenyouaskCycorp's computerordem-
ocratca||y e|ected |eaders n the Morthern Hemsphere, the
geography arm othe sytem starts whirring away country
by country: ritain s in Europe. Europe is n the Morthem
!08 T H N U M 8 k T |
Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere is north of the equa
tor. It knows each of these facts and skips from one to the
next. Then, according to Cycorp's Web page, it uses logic: if
region A is part of region B, and region B is north of region
C, then region A is north of region LTherefore, it concludes,
Britain is north of the equator. At that point, the geography
arm has tO ak its political cousin if Britain is a democracy.
And the analysis continues. The trouble wit this logical ap
proach is speed and fexibilit Facts change, challenging the
immense system to rejigger its bits of information and the re
lationships among them. In 1984, when Cycorp bega assem
bling its knowledge universe, the Soviet Union dominated te
Asian continent, and the "mouse" was barely pushing its nose
fom the domain of rodentia, a subgroup of mammals, into
the burgeoning arena of computer accessories.
The riva approach rejects this plodding logic and prefers
to see the computer purely as a counting whiz. Statistics are
king. Probability defnes truth. Speed and counting trump
knowledge, and language exists largely as a matrix of numeri
cal relationships. This is Umbrias tack-and it is this statisti
cal approach that most Numerati he to as they study us in
nearly every feld. Wat the computers in Boulder learn is a
cra quilt of statistics and geometry. They may come up with
startling insights. But the reach them through a labyrinth of
caculations. These learning machines swim in numbers.
The learning process starts with humans, a team of
readers at Umbria headquarters and 25 , colleagues in Banga
lore, India. These are the annotators. They go through thou
sand: of blogs manually, lookng for evidence of each blog
ger's age and gender. Is the person male or female? If so, how
old? Sometimes they' cant tell. But when they can, they mark
the blogs and put them into a digital folder. Their work is
8 L 0 9 9 8 !09
to bu|d a "g|d standard," a se|ecton oaccurate|y |abe|ed
b|ogs that can beused to teachthe machine. Inths process,
Kaushans| say, Umbria researchers put perhaps IOO,OOO
b|ogpostsinthego|dcnm|der.JheytakeyO,OOOothemand
introducethemtothecomputer.Jhey|eavetheotherIO,OOO
toonesde.
Howdothoseannotatorscometotheirconc|usionsabout
thcb|ogs:Inmanycases,theyre|yonow|edgeandcontcxt
Uatwou|dbehardtoteachamachine.IpretendI'mananno-
tatorandrereadJearsoLust'spost.Fromtheveryhrstpara-
gaph,I'mconvincedthatit'sawomanwritng. utwhatte||s
meths:1t'satoneIpickup,avoice.Jhescarehardthngsto
enumerate, nevermndimpart to a machine.Je||ingdeta|s:
Jhereareaew, buttheyrenotdehntve.Aman cou|dhave
a boyrendnamed Kenny Aman cou|d getdressed up wth
Littyand search orthrhstores. Isupposeamancou|deven
wrte "I dd a good job gettngaround Co|umbus and know
thecityprettywe||. Gome|"Itisntunt||aterinthepostthat
I read, "So as bromer, sister, and hanc wewent up to sur-
gerywherewemetwthp|entyodoctors."It'sa|itt|eunc|ear
who's wo. utI revcwthe sect|on unt| I'mjustaboutsure
thatKcnnysthebrother,Lzzysthesister,andJearsoLusts
thehance.IIwereanannotator,atthspontIwou|dconh-
denuymarkherb|ogpostF orema|e.
Acomputer,Jed Kremerte||sme,wou|dhaveto |ookor
other signs. lt wou|dnt recognize the author a the hance,
and itmigt notkowthatahance is awoman. Kremer is
thechiettechnca|omceratUmbra.Heworksinahugesun-
|it omce |ined wth whiteboards. He's b|ond, wth a square
fc, a pointed goatee, and near1imit|ess patience-at Ieast
whenitcomestoteachngbasicdatam|ning. ncetheanno-
tatorshavecreatedthergo|denh|es,hete|Ismehescraw|s
!10 T H N U M 8 k T |
onawhteboard, thescentstscombthroughthedocuments,
|ookngorhundredsolvarab|es mc computercan homen
on. Jhey|ook or te||ngwords and combnatons ovcrbs
andobjects. ("Go me|"m|ghtbeone.)Jhey|ookatpunctua-
ton, at ccrtan word groups, at the p|acement oadjectves
and adverbs. Jhey ad]ust Ior certan groups oIwords that,
taken ndvdua||y, cou|d be msunderstood. Jhe computer
has to know, or examp|e, that Oenver rocos are a oot-
ba|| teamand not, Kremersays,|aughng, `f ctyohorses."
Hs team a|so |ooks atstrange spe||ngs. Some b|oggers spe||
geat as g8. therssprnk|etherpostswth on|ine gestures
knownas emotcons, such as the sm|eytace, . ) . Jhe scen-
tstsnstructthe computer to keep an e onthe Ionts used
and tbeco|or ottheb|ogs' |etterng and background. (Jears
oLust, I note, usesab|uebac@roundcoveredwthpctures
oIaces, makngt|ook|keao||ywoodmove poster.)Add
taltogethcr,andthecomputermghthavemorethanI,OOO
d|hercnteaturestohndandcount.
Can the computer dstngush bemeen the sexes: Jhe
test |s ready. Jhe computerp|ows through the yO,OOO b|ogs
at |ghtnngspeed. It counts every one othe varab|es, and
tarrangesthembygender.Kemer'steamstudesthercsu|ts.
ArethcrecertanqurksorcaturesthatareIarmorecommon
n one gender's posts than the other's: Jhat's what Kremer's
team s hungryor. Corre|atons. !they hnd them, they as-
semb|ethemntoamode|.Jhssthesetonstructonsthat
te||s the computer how to te|| a me b|ogger rom a ema|e
one. It starts ohvth the casy stuU Some b|oggers, lor ex-
amp|, dent| themse|ves as M or F at the top part othe
b|ogkown a theheader.Jhat'sc|ose to asure bet. Certan
pbrasesarestrongndcators.
a
my dress," orcxamp|e, or"my
beard." But most othe mode| s a statstca| soup omore
8 | 0 9 9 R !!!
subtc sgnas, Ot Varyng Vcrb OOmbnatOns, QunOtuatOn,
andtOnts.LaCbone stcdtoaQrObabty. Jbcartn tbssO-
cnOcnVOVcs bOWmuObWc@ttO gVc caObOOmQOncnt.
bcn tbc sOcntsts baVc tbcr mOdc rcady tbcy t
Out On tbc IO QcrOcnt Ottbc gOd standard dOOumcnts tbcy
bad Qut asdc. Jbcy QuOky sccbOW many Ottbc dOOumcnts
thc mOdc sOrts OOrrcOtyand, mOrc mQOrtant,WbObOncs t
msscs. JbcyQOrcOVcrtbcsc, OOkngtO

sgns Othutyana-
ys. by dd t sOrcW uQ On OncmansQOst Ld t gVc tOO
muCb Wcgbt tO tbc grsb cXOamatOn QOnts Ld t OVcr-
OOk tbc Qbrasc Luy kc mc OW sy but thcn agan,
tbatQhrasc may nOtbaVcQOQQcd uQ n tbc hrst tcstbatOb, sO
tWOudntbcntbc mOdc.
Lkc a ObctWbOsc sOumc OOmcs Out tOO satyOr bat, tbc
sOcntsts ad] ust tbc Vrabcs.Jbcytwcak mcr mOdc. Jbcy
takcWc@t aWay trOm sOmc OOmQOncnts and add t tO Otb-
cts. AtcW ncW hnts maybaVc QOQQcd uQ n tbc atcst sam-
Qng. JbOsc c bchOtOrcdn.Jbs QrOOcss gOcs Onand On,
sOmctmcs tbrOu_b tcn tcratOns Or mOrc. n tbs scnsc, tbc
OOmQutcr samaddcnysOWcarnr. ttakcsancntrcabOra-
tOry OtsOcntsts, Ohcn skQQng tbc sOQcs On Wcckcnds and
OtdctngQzzaatcaI ngbt, tO tcaObtbcmaObucWbatWc bu-
mansknOWataganOc.PndWbcntbc OOmQutcrhnayQasscs
t gcndct tcst [\mbraWOnt dsOOsc tbc aOOurag ratc) , tbc
maObncsstaOngWytrOmgraduatOn. tmOVcsOntOtbc
ncXtstagc, carnng tO QcgcaObWrtcr to a gcncraton. mcrc,
sOmcOttbcmarkcrsarcsurQrsngysmQc. LdcrWrtcrs, tOr
cXamQc, usca grcatcrVarctyOtWOrds tbanyOungct Oncs dO.
LOuntngsuObWOrds sbardytOOQrOOJ buttgVcs tbc\m-
bra systcm a runnng start n gcncratOna grOuQng. t snt
uDttbcOOmQutcrbasWOrkcd tbrougb gcndcrandagc tbatt
taOcs ts mOst dmOut assgnmcnt. hgurngoutWbctbcr bog-
!! T H N U M 8 k T |
gers give a thumbsup or thumbsdown to whichever, food,
soda pop, music, or politica candidate theyre analying.
This is a tortured way of learning about us. Instead of
knocking on Otdoor, data miners break our documents into
.thousands of components ad then sif through them obses
sively, attempting to put together a mosaic of our thoughts
and appetites. It's snea. It reminds me of parents who, in
stead of asking teir teenager point.blank where he drives at
night, tiptoe into the garage, take readings fom the odome
ter, and ma their own prpjections on a map. This approach
is ofen less precise and a whole lot more 'ork. But data min
ing plays to the counting ad calculati!g genius of the com
puter, and above a to its speed. Pd it takes a wide detour
around the computer's weak points -specifcally, its limited
aUity to think and to understand.
I ask Kremer about this. It seems to me, I say that' a com
puter working from a set of instructions, no matter how ex
hausiive, must make loads of mistakes. Aer a , we humans
-each of us carrying a prodigious brain wired for communica
tion-misread each other's words and gestures daily. "What?" ,
we say "Huh? Are you kidding? Lb, I'm sorry, I thought . . .
No, what I meant . . . " If you listen, we're constandy amend
ing what we say Getting our meaning clear in someone else's
head and understanding what there trying to say is a strugge
to which we deote a enormous aount of our intelligence.
Entire industries, from psychology and law to literature, focus
on sorting u out. They neer run out of work. So computers,
I ask Kemer, poor' dumb computers that q count a rlon
trees without realizing that theyre dealing wit a forest, they
must sometimes get utterly confsed. Rght?
Sometimes; he says. He leads me over to his computer,
and we look at a blog post that's been analyed by Umbrias
8 | 0 9 9 R !!J
system. It's an artc|e aboutApp|e's Fod Shume. Fhrases n
redaredeemednegatve.Greenphrasesarepostve, andb|ue
unknown. I |ook Ior a secton n red. ne oIthem reads.
"|obs not on|y moved the exa|ted Shume to the top otthe
.
" menu . . .
I study the phrase and see nothng negatve about t.
Cou|d exalted besarcastc: It doesnt |ook|ke t. I caI| Kre-
mcr's attenton to the secton. He reads tand shrugs. "Fa|se
postve," hesays. "Ithappens." He

ponts tothe"not" nthe

sentence.Jhatsmp|enegatvemayhave|edthecomputerto
seetheentrephraseasa condemnaton.
Sarcasm, Kremersay, stumps me machne on a regu|ar
bass. It's probab|y ok to take a San Oego b|ogger at her
=ordwhen she exclams, "ILVEJHISVEJHER|"Yet
how C the system know that when a b|ogger I,OOO m|es
north, n sogg Port|and, writes thevery same sentence, love
mayverywe|| mean "hate": Jhcse arc the cha||enges oIma-
chne |earnng, and they me| graduate rcscarch n top pro-
gramsaroundthewor|d.Jack|ngsarcasmmaynvo|vcteach-
ng the machne to keep an eye out Ior messages n capta|
|etters, exc|amaton ponts, and the tenden olteens to n-
du|gentmoreohen than thergrandparents do. Perhaps n
the dstantmture, contextua||ysavmachnesw||bearmed
witha|ong |stometeoro|ogca| goomzones. Maybethey||
"understand" that salt n such |attudes ohcn reIers to hg-
wayssues,andnotcusne,andthatravesabouttheweather,
at|east durng certan seasons,are bound tobeacetous. ut
or a company se||ng servces today, such exercses are aca-
demc.
"I'vegotbggerhshtory,"saysMco|asMko|ov, Umbras
Hetscientst. A Romanan-born computer sccntst, Mco-
|ov got hs doctorate n Ednburgh beore movngto Aer-

!!4 T H N U M 8 k T |
ica, frst to IBM's Watson lab and then to Umbria. He has an
angular face and dark deep-set eyes, and he sports thick black
bangs -a bit like Jim Orrey in his early movies. He work in
a small, dark ofce down the hall from Kremer's sunny, ex
pansive digs. It feels like I've stepped into a cave.
Nicolov gives me an example of the kind of confsion he
has to sort out. Umbria does lots of work for consumer elec
tronics companies, he says. They want to know what kind of
buzz the latest gizmos are generating. But in this area, even
words like big and litle var with the context. "If a laptop
is big, it's negative," he says. "But if a hard drive is big, it's
d " goo .
Nicolov and his tea can teach these lessons to the com
puter. It helps enormously to train it for a specifc industry, or
what computer scientists call a
.
"domain." Within that area;
ulearns not only words but also groups Owords. Bigrams
are pairs, trigrams are triplets. Anyhing bigger than that is an
N gram. bO a sophisticated machine trained for laptops might
draw a green line under a trigra like "big hard drive." That's
positive. But it might not be quite so confdent when con
fronted with the Ngram "big honkng hard drive." That one
it migt miss.
Do these errors skew Umbrias results? Kaushansk main
tains tat he's chosen precisely the right market for inexact
results. "We're providing
.
qualitative research, not quanti
tative," he says. "It's directional. u gives early indications of
where things are going, what new issues are popping up for a
company." To mae his case, ' Kaushansk shows me Umbrias
tracking of President Bush dring his 2OOq reelection cam
paign. He has the favorable and unfavorable blog references
to the president on a chart alongside a series of Gallup polls.
The Umbria blog numbers appear to anticipate by two to four
8 | 0 9 9 R !!5
weeks theupsanddowns n the po||s. Kaushans|ssayng,

inehect,thatevenihiscomputermisinterpretsthewordson
ourndvidua| b|ogs, treadsourtrends. Ittracksourtrbes.
ut who cxact|y popu|ates those trbes: It's a bumng
queston among b|og anysts. Jhe trbes, aher a||, are de-
hnednotby neghborhood, race, taxbracket, or

the answers
checkedohon asurey. Instead, machnes ana|ye ourwords
anddrop us nto tribes wthpeop|ewe mghtbesurprsedto
encounter.Jhesetrbesarea|itt|e|kethebucketswe|andin
atthesupermarket-butwthanextra|ayerocomp|exty.At
thc grocery store, consumpton patterns are a|| that counts.
utKaushans|s trbes, |ike]osh Gotbaum's po|itica| group-
ngs,haveto embodyanentresetore|atedva|ues.
Kaushans| gves me an examp|e. Four years ago, a {-
year-o|d rendohs redscovered hs ado|escent passion or
skateboardng. He's a true anatc, Kaushans| says, and he
adoresnoton theskateboardbutthewho|ecu|turethatsur-
rounds it. Heta|ks |ike a teenager, inKaushans|'svew. He
|istens to a dherent generation omusc. Andbere's the m-
portant part. Kaushansky nssts that he wrtes |ke a skate-
board-obsessedteen onhs b|og. Ferhaps nadecadeortwo,
systems |keUmbrasw||beab|eto dstingush bemeen true
teensandmdd|e-agedposeurs. utnottoday. Intherstats-
tics,this{-year-o|ds|kc|ytoshowupasateen.Heachesto
beamemberothattrbe,Kaushans[says.AndorUmbras
purposes,whatdiherencedoesitmake:
.
Pewweek|aterI'mintheSanFranciscoomcesoJech-
norat, andI re|ate thestoryotheskateboarderto Oavd Si-
ry, the search engne's ounder. Slry, a transp|anted New
YorkerwithnotanounceoVestCoast coo| inhs expansive
body, exp|odes."VRMG| VRMG| "Amancanwrte|ke
awoman, he says, butdoes hebuy|ike awoman: Sitrygoes
!!5 T H N U M 8 k T |
on at length about the dangers of predicting people's behav
ior based on statistical correlations. "Let's say tat according
to my analytics, you said tat Mission Impossibl III was no
good and tat you cant wait to see Prairie Home Compan
ion, " he says. "I cant assume from that that you're an NPR
listener. That's where you get into trouble." That's mistaking
correlation for causation, he says,. It's common among data
miners -and most oter humans. How may times have you
heard people say, "They alway do that . . . "!
For Kaushansk, putting his skateboarding friend and a
few others in te wrong tribes may not turn out to be too se
rious. That's why advertising and marketing are such wonder
f testing grounds for the Numerati. If tey screw up, the
only harm is that we see the wrong ad or receive irrelevant
coupons. However, as the Numerati fle into oter industries,
such as medicine and policing, they wont have the luxury of
tossing loads of us, willy-nilly, into te same piles. Instead of
concentrating on what we have in common, theyll have to
search out te data that sets us apart. It's a much touger job.
ARLY I N

zoo;,blogging was developing into a crae. Politi

c bloggers haa swung their weight in the zoo( prsidential
capaign, and now some (o,ooonew bloggers were popping
up eery day. Nicolas Nicolov and his technica team at Um
bria couldnt have picked a better time to be deploying blog
crunching analysis. It was around then that a vice president at
Yahoo, Jef Weiner, awed by the phenomenon of blogs, mar
veled to me, "Never in the history of market research has there
been a tool like this."
But one big problem reared its head tat spring. P the
snow began to recede from Flatiron, Nicolov and others be-
8 L 0 9 9 8 !!
@ toseeanewandhazardousspecmenshowngupnther
resu|ts.Spamb|ogs,orsp|ogs,theycal|edthem.
Jhe puqose osp|ogswasto use themmensepowero
Goog|e to cashn on theast-grownghe|d oIb|ogadverts-
ng. Goog|e ohered a servce ca||ed Adsense. IyOu sgned
up or t, Goog|ewou|d automatca||y p|ace re|evant adver-
tscments onto your b|og orVeb page. Iyou wrote about
weddngs, thesystemwou|ddetectths and drop n ad ban-
ners, say, orhowers, gowns, dtuxedos. !areadcrc|cked
thebanner, theadvertserwou|dpayCoog|eaew ccnts, and
Goog|e womd sharethe takewth the b|ogger. For b|oggers,
t|ooked|keagreatwaytobrngnadvertsngrevenuewth
abso|ute|ynosa|esstah.]ustc|ckthebox, b|ogenergetca||y,
and wat or the check rom Goog|e. ut when I surveyed
b|oggers that sprngandaskedhowtheywereIarng, most o
thcmcomp|aned.Jhecheck usua||yweren'tenoughtokeep
themcahenated,much|esshouscdandIed.
Robots, ttumedout, were runnngawaywth mucho
the money. Jhese somare programs spawned b|ogs by thc
hundreds othousands (manyothem onGoog|e's Ireeb|og
servce) and engneered them to attract Goog|e ads. Jhcse
sp|ogs thencrcu|atedwth|thehuman b|ogs ande|bowed
asde ml|ons othem to harvestva|uab|e c|cks. Here'show.
Pcture a mture bnde |ookngor aweddngb|og. She types
"weddng'' nto the query box at a b|og search engne. Jhe
mostrecentpostththatwordnitappearsatthetopothe
b|ogresu|ts. She c|ck t. Chances are, she's dsapponted to
seeadog'sbreakastosentencergmentseaturngtheword
wedin
g
. Jhe b|og s utter trash. It's engneered byan auto-
maticprogram not to beread, but smp|y to entice Google's
robotstodropadvertsementsonto thepage. Maybethebrde
retreatsromthesp|ogbacktothesechengneand|ooksor
!!8 T H N U M 8 A T |
a |egtmate b|og.Jhenagan,maybeshec|cks on one othe
advertsements. K-ching! Jhesp|oggergets ff cents, a do|-
|ar,maybetwodo||ars.1hebrdemaynotrea|zca shec|cks
me ad that she's the on|y human n a drama domnated by
robots.
Jhssboundtohappenmoreandmorc. ecauseourn-
ormaton trave|s by tse|, untethered rom our bodes, ma-
chines can orge and p|agarte human communcaton on
a massve sca|e. Jhs poses a never-endng cha||enge in the
wor|d othe Mumrat. the better automatc systems undcr-
standus,thebettertheyCpretendtobeus.
Jhe phenoena| growth o sp|ogs n 2OO threatcned
Umbr|asentrebusness. Sudden|y, thecompany's marketre-
searchwas redectngthevews, concerns, andconsumerhab-
ts o. . . androds. Vo wou|d pay or mat: "Ityou don't
take care ospam," Mco|ovsays, "t makesyour anmyss bo-
gus." Inta||y thcLmbrateamtredtoweedoutthe sp|ogs
manua||y. utasthep|agucgrew,theysawtheyneededtode-
votemucholtherresearchehorttospamhghtng.
Foraewrantcmonthsn2OO, Lmbrascent|stsstrug-
g|ed to teach thermaHnes howto dstngush between the
work oother mach|ncs and that ohumans. For ths, Lm-
bras scentsts |ooked to geometry. Jhs maycome as a sur
prseto those ouswho assocate geometrywth the ponty
compassesandp|tcprotractorswe carred around nmd-
d|e schoo|. utadvanced geometrys agrowng orce nthe
expandngunverseotheMumerat.Fromthekng-szed|ab-
oratoresoGoog|etosma||shops|ikeUmbra, scentsts o-
ten describe the wor|d ol data a a doman o sharp ang|es,
co|Idngplanes,andvectorsshootngongend|esspaths.
Imagneavastmu|tdmensona|space,Mco|ovnstructs
me. RememberthateachdocumentUmbriastudeshas doz-
ens omarkers the strange spe||ngs, onts, word choces,
8 L 0 9 9 8 !!9
themes, co|ors, andgrammarthatsettapartromothers. In
ths enormous space I'm supposed to magne, each markcr
occupies ts own patch orea| estate. Jhs is a unverse that
spans the qurks, the tab|eocontents, even mepunctuaton
omeb|ogosphere.Icturethetheme|Fod"somewherenear
P|uto, and the emotcon . ( nthevcintyoltheMorth Star.
Jhousands o these markers are scattered about. And each
document -b|og or sp|og-s gven an assgnment. t must
produce a |ne-or vector-that ntersects wth each and
ceryoneotsownmarkersntheentreunverse.It'sa|tt|e
|kethosegrade-schoo|exercseswhereach|do||ows aseres
otnumbersor|ctterswthherpenclandendsupwthapc-
tureoapuppyoraChristmtree.

utUmbrasvectorsaren'tnear|ysosmp|e. Mico|ovtres
to draw a dagram on me whiteboard. ut he gves up
shortorder. It'smpossble,becausenawor|doImodmen-
sions,oreventhree,eachothevectorswou|dhave to squg-
g|e mad|y and perorm rdcu|ous L-turns to meet up wth
eachots markers.Jheresu|tngmapwould |ook more |ke
aplateospaghettthanthestraghtarrowsdemandcdbyths
so-ca||ed support vector machne. Even we ctpcture t
wmourearthboundminds, thecomputerhasnotroub|ede-
pctngthe documents -b|ogposts andsp|ogsa||ke-vec-
tors. Jha|| runneat|yromone dmensonthroughcount-
|ess others and, more mportant, through every one other
distinguishingmarkers.!ntergmacticarrowsga|ore.utmere's
acertainordertothem.Oocumentsthatresemb|eeachother,
natura||yenough, areneighborsinthsvectorspace.Jheones
about!raqcongregate aroundone constellation, those about
deodorantsaroundanother.Pblogaboutdeodorants inIraq
(be|evc me, they're out there) spans the two conste||atons.
|ogs that have a |ot n common tend to point at sim|ar
ang|es.
I0 T H N U M 8 A T |
In an ideal world, the splogs' vectors would all reside in
the same underworld. Then Nicoloy and his team cud se
quester them. But in the beginning, they usually mingle with
legitimate bogs. Their authors, afer all, tae great pains to
make tem ft in. This means that the Umbria tea must dig
for more variables, more qualities in a blog that set the hu
mans apart. The process is similar to the fraud detection that
human

have been engaged in throughout histor . . I remember
reading about German spies in World N8 II who spoke per
fect Aerican English. They knew about Franklin Roosevelt's
freside chats and Bett Grable's famous legs. They could .
talk about hig school life outside St. Louis, reminisce about
dancing to Glenn Miller's big trombone at the prom. Suspi
cious American interrogators had to look for precise mark
ers tO set them apart. They'd ask the spies about spitbals and
double pla. Maybe tey tried out some old "Kock, knock"
jokes. In tis sae way, Nicolov's tea searches for variables
that will betray the splogs -ard set their nast vectors careen
ing into a neigborhood of their own.
Wat next? The splog neighborhood must be cordoned
Oh, condemned. Imaine placing a big shield between the
. good and bad vectors. Speaking geometrically, the shield is a
plane. The spam fgters maneuver it with a mouse, up and
down, this way and' that. The plane defnes the order be
teen the to worlds, and as the scientists position it, the ma
chine churns throug thousands of r
u
es and statistics that di
vide legitimate blogs from spam.
ONE FRI GI D MORNI NG before dawn sit in the only open
cafe I can fnd in Boulder, and I blog. It's a post ketching
abOt annoying advertisements on the U. S. Airays fight
8 L 0 9 9 8 !Z!
romMewark to Ocnver. eore I've hnshedmy cohee, that
post s rocketingto acomputerserernMewYorkCtyand
up onto me b|og. Likeml|ons ototherpostseveqhour, t
sendsoutpngs.Jheseareupdatestothccomputersmontor-
ngtheb|ogwor|d.Jhanks tothesepngs,searchengnesand
b|ogana|ysts|keLmbradon'thaveto go huntngandgath-
ering n the wor|d ob|ogs. Jhat wou|d takc too |ongor a
medum thatchanges bythe mnute. Jheysmp|yopcn ther
digta|doorsandmeposts arrve. It'sastheyhavesubscrip-
tons.VtbInmnutes,lmbrasspam-hghtngsystemha re-
cevedmy humb|e postand drawn tas avector-hopem||y,
onehyingon the saesideothe spamp|ane. Latert s c|assi-
hedbygenderdgeneratonandsentment.
Oky. Umbra can turn my post nto a vector. ut can
M|co|ov and hs co|eagues tum me nto a vector: Aer a||,
each b|og post can be dehned geometrca||y, each b|o@er
c beas we||. It's justamatterobreakngdown ourb|ogs
nto peces, or varab|es. It mgt ana|yze the subjects and
b|ogswewrteabout,wherewe comerom, the|anguagewe
wrten. I askMco|ovt'spossb|e. course,hesays. ut
t'smuchsmp|er,ornow,tognorethendvdua|sandocus
ontheropnons.Eachpost, nthatsense,partcpatesnsur-
-veys. I\. o. Arways hres Umbra, theyw|| seethat at|east
oneb|ogger,apparent|yamdd|e-agedma|e,hasnegatvesen-
tmentsabourtheronboardadvertsng.Jhsana|ysssabt
|keane|ectonorthecensus.A|vocesareequa|.
utasthecomputerscastanever-wdernetorourwords
and on|ne gestures, growng numbers oMumerat w|| be
trainngthervectormachnesonthe ndvdu. uzzMetrcs
a|ready mode|s 2,OOO othe most popu|ar b|oggers. Each s
rcpresentedasanama|gamother|anguage, thethemesthey
cover,andtheomerb|ogsthey|nkto.Eachothesebloggers
I T h N U M 8 k T |
is a hub of activity. Aalyts can measure their infuence and
map the constellations of smaller bloggers deployed around
theI , Wt this information in hand, advertisers can ' buy
space on targeted blogs and measure, hour by hour, the buzz
that each one produces.
'
Ca the automatic tecnologies that parse the . words of
bloggers do the same thing for some mastermind in Islam
abad or London who's deployng battali(ns of suicide bomb
ers? Can that persons vector be isolated liKca splog? Ad what
about others of us -you, me, Tears of Lust-whose vectors
just happen to be passing through the same neighborhood?
Umbria ca screw up hundreds of times' each day. Aencies
tracking down terrorists wont have that luury.
C H A P T E R 5
Trrorist
A SCHOOL BUS pu||sup besidemycar. Kidsstreamoutand
make theirnoisywayintotheMationa| Cr_to|ogicMuseum
inFortMeade,Maryand-mydestinationaswel|. I'ma|itue
ear|y |ustaross a broad avenue, beyondan imposinghig-

techenceandavastacreageoparkngspace,standsthecoun-
trys headquarters oe|ectronicespionage, theMationa|Secu-
rity{ency. I recognize theb|ack, g|ass-wa||ed cubes othe
1SAroma rerigeratormnetariendgavemeacoup|eo
yearso.Itshowsabo|to|ightningshootingdownthroug
me purp|e evening s| onto the ta||er othe two bui|dings.
It appears eitherto besmitingthesecretiveworkhoporim-
buingitwithrighteousorce romabove, dependingonyour
perspective. I'm here or a ta|kwith the MSAs chiemathc-
matician, James Schatz. It's apparently a lot easier for him to
cross thestreetto this|itt|emuseummanormetogetsecu-
rityc|eanceandmakemywayintomeMSAIortress.
JheMSAwasatthecenteromeinlormationwaronter-
rorism |ong beore 9/ 1 1. ut the proh|e othe secretive spy
agenc roseol|owingthetacks.1t becamea|| tooc|earthat
te United States lacked on-the-ground intelligence in the
I4 T H N U M 8 k T |
Wat aganst P _acda. NOst sQcs and sQcOa tOtccs n tbc
Ndcast sttuggcd cVcn tO makc a QbOnc ca n Ptabc. cW
cOud bOQc tO nbttatc tbc tcttOr nctwOtk, mucb

css Ocatc
and caQtutc Lsama bn adcn. bc ansWct tO tbs sbOttagc,
tOt many, Wa tO cOmb tbtOugbd_ta data. t W bc tbct
sOns aganst Out scOn, WtOtc ctct ubct and tcd Ns
OtLJccbnOO@, ab@-tccb sutcancc cOmQany, n tbc
WntctOt2002.
at sOrts Ot data WOud mc tbc bunt tOt tcttOtsts
tactCay anythng tbc gOVctnmcnt cOud gct ts bands On.
n tbcycats tOOWng 9l I , tbc gOVctnmcnt sQcnt mOtc tban
$1 bOn tO mctgc ts cnOtmOus databascs, ncudng tbOsc
Ottbc baDd tbc CL.JbsWOudgVc datamncts a sngc
unbcd tcsOutcc. but tbat Wasnt a. bcyWOud asO ttaW
Occans Ot cOnsumct and dcmOgtaQbc dctas, arnc tccOtds
andhOtc tcccQts, aOngWtbVdcOs, QbOtOs, and mOns Ot
bOuts OtntctnatOnaQbOnc andntctncttt charVcstcdby
mc oP. bs ttOVc matcbcd anybng tbat tbc cb gants
YMOO and LOOgc Wctc gtaQQng Wtb. n Nay 2006, ncWs
suttaccdtbattbcbPWas scOtctycXtcndngts ncts cVcnmt-
tbct. L 1dj tcQOttcd tbat ma]Ot QbOnc cOmQancs bad
dcVctcdbundtcds OtbOnsOtQbOnc tcOOtds tO tbcgOVctn-
mcnt. bcscQtOVdcddctas OnWbOWas cangWbOm, hOm
Wbctc, tOt bOW Ong, and Wbctbct tbc ca Was tOtWatdcd.
ctc tbc oP stadasO stcnng n On tbc cas and tcadng
tbc c-mas bctc wa nO tcng. but tbc bush admnstta-
tOnmadcccattbatWbcntcamctOanttcttOtsmchOtts,cW
cgatc nVOVng cOngtcssOna dscOsutc OtcOutt aQQtOVa
shOud gct n tbc Way LOnscQucnty, tbc dctas OtOut Vcs
bOWntO tbOsc databascs, andtsuQtOgOVcmmcntdatamn-
cts tOWccdOutthc tcttOrstsamOngus.
Lan mc umctat at tbc oP usc tbc statstca tccb-
I R R 0 R | S I !5
niqucswc'vcsccn inpoitics andadvcrtisingto traccthcpath
ota tcrrorist! Ac thc bchavior pattcms otsuicidc bombcrs
simiarinmcaningmways tothoscottorcign-movicbumon
Ncthix, sociabuttcrhicsonaccbook, orouticrRcpubicans
inGrccnwichViagc!Jhcsc arc thc qucstions I mu as I sit
outsidcthcCr_tologicMuscum.
Iwasschcducdtohavcthismcctingmonmsgo. utthc
!P gotcaughtup in thc controvcrsysurroundingwirctap-
ping donc without a cg warrant, and I gt put on hod.
Lvcry timc I cncountcrcd onc otthcNumcrati whic thc in-
tcicwwaspcnding, I askcdaboutthcchacngcs mcingthc
datamincrs at mc NS^. at I carncdw sobcring. Jhc
hazardsottrackingtcrroristsaongpathsotcctronicdataarc
tormidabc, andmcrisksotscrcwingup cnormous. No pru-
dcnt rucrs, I'm convinccd, wouddrcam otcntrusting citi-
zcns' ivcsto mcsc mcmods -uncss thcsafctyotthcircoun-
hingcdon it and thcy had prccious fcw othcr options.
Jhis,sady, appcars to bcthcfcar. Ad manyotusmayhnd
ourscvcscaughtinthcirnct.
Whcn it comcs to data mining, potcntia tcrrorists dit-
tcr hom, say caviarbuycrs at Satcway in thrcc crucia ways.
irst, thcrc's a ack othistorical rccord. It's ncary impossibc
to buid a prcdictivc modc otrarc orunprcccdcntcd cvcnts,
sucbas thcattacks onSpanishtrains, anigtcubinai, and
thc VordJradc Ccntcr.Jhis is bccausc mam-bascd prcdic-
tionsrcyonpattcrnsotpastbchavior.Lct'ssayIhytoJwan
tomorrow and purchasc 2OO Michcin tircs wm my crcdit
card. Vithin minutcs, MastcrCamwi bc caing my housc
inNcw|crscy askingitmat'srcaymconanAsiansprcc.My
buyngpattcrnsandmoscotcardmicvcsarcctchcdintothcir
systcm.Pcomputcrprogramknownasancurancworkraccs
through miions ottransactims and cstabishcs thc imits ot
L5 T H N U M 8 A T |
normabchavior. It throws up a rcdhaghcn itsccs adcvia-
tion thatcoud signastocn cd. Jhist_cotprogram dc-
tcctcdhnanciairrcguaritics on thc ptolYork govcr-
nor Liot Spitzcrin2007. Jhctraiotthcsc monicscdto thc
discovcry otpaycnts tor prostitutcs and his rcsignation in
March2008.) Butsuchtoosarcusclcsswhcnitcomcstorcc-
ognizingorprcdictingsomcmingncvcrsccnbctorc-thcun-
cxpcctcdcarth-shakingcvcnts thatthcaudorNassimNicho-
asJacbdiscusscsinhisbook The Blck Swan.
Jhc sccond probcm is that suspcctcd tcrrorists, unikc
mostshoppcrsorvotcrs,takcmcasurcstoburthcdatasigna

tocovcrthcirtrack.Jhcsimpcstwayistoconductimportant
busincss ohthc ncwork-to holdmcctingshccto mcc and
scnd codcdmcssagcson papcr or committcd to thc mcmory
othumancouricrs. uttcrroristscanalsomanipuatcthcdata
thatgctspickcdup, distortingwhatindustryinsidcrs clthc
fccdbackoop.Jhc runprcparatonstorabigbombing
orhijacking, tor cxampc, clicit a rcsponsc hom Vcstcrn in-
tcligcnccagcncics -andthcnsimpyhodotbcatta.|crry
ricdman, a statistics prolcssor at Sttord, comparcs thc ct-
tcct otthis tactic to caraarms mat go ohconstanuy uling
pcopcintoignoringthcm.romthcdatamincrs'pcrspcctivc,
thcton-ccntappcarsto bcaHlscpositivc.Jhcymigbtcon-
cudc incorrccuymat thcir agrithms nccd an ovcrhau. y
tinkringwiththcdata, thetcrroristspayWm thcirhcads.

inay, miurc in this rcm otdata mining C dcstroy

ivcs. Rmcmbcr Jcd Krcmcr's shrug whcn his automatic
rcadcratLmbriamisrcadabogpostand concudcdmatthc
writcrwasdown onAppc! O carcd! Jhc machinc got it
rightmost otthctimc.or didit mattcr it|osh Gotbaum's
algorithmsmiscsihcdmca aarn KiscroraRghtCick.
Mypicotjunkmaiwoudbconysighuycssrccntthan
T 8 8 0 8 | 5 T !
usua.hcdcandusttcstOttbcumctatatctbOscnWbcb
mcycan gOOuQtcguatyand st tOQ tbc status QuO.bs s
hatdy tbc casc n tbc Wat @nst tcttOtsm. nnOccnt QcOQc
WhOgctswQtuQ nthctcttOtnctcanbndthcmscVcsVnga
n@tmatc. bs s a thc mOtc ttucWbctc ttadtOna QtOtcc-
tOns, such as QtcsumQtOn OnnOccncc and tbc tgbt Otba-
bcas cOtQus, atc nOt guatantccd, and tOttutcstOctatcd.
n mctcamOcOuntcttcttOtsm,bundtcdsOmOns O
us atc tcduccd tO thc tOc OtsuQQOttng Qaycts, cXttas. bc
tOcus s nO Ongct On us, as tWa at tbc Omcc and at mc su-
Qctmatkct. hc umctat at thc oP and smat agcnccs
atOund thcWOnd atc attcmQtng tO ttackdOWn Ony thc tny
hactOn Okcts nOut mdst. butbctcs tbc tub. Or tbc tc-
scatchcts tO Qck Out tbcsc Oudcts, tbcy must btst bgutc Out
Whats nOtma. ctutc OutsOccqOn a bgQccc OQOstct-
bOatd. Pt htst @anOc t OOks cnttcy
g
uc, mOnOcbtOmatc.
utstcQCOsct,andyOuscctnydOtsandsttngsOttcd.Jbat
bacgtOund O buc tcQtcscnts bOtng, aW-abdng [tOt tbc
mOst Qatt) us. Lut Ony mnctOn On tbs dsQay s tO btng
ntO tcctthc bts Ottcd. bOsc atc tbc susQcOtcd tcttOtsts.
aysts QanttbatbucWtbtbcdctas Otou Vcs. Ot ths
tOhaQQcn, Wcmust bccOmckOWn.dsOmctmcs, ttbca-
gOttbms atc a uc OdOt Out bcbaVOt as Out OtstcQ Wtb
tbcQaO, Out bucgVcsOdtbcsgbtcsttOsygOW.batsWbcn
ttOubccas.

Pt Qtccscy tcn OcOck, )amcs ocbatz atVcs at tbc mu-

scum Wtb bs Qtcss tcQtcscntatVc. cs bad and ncady
dtcsscd n a QtcsscdWbtc sbtt and a tc. cWaks Wtb tbc
QOstutc and QtccsOn O a gcOmctct. Vc bccn btctcd tbat
QO!g QucstOns W Dc Odmts. Jbc dscussOn W cc

tct
OnmcmatbcmatOaandstatstcaaQQtOacbcs tO ntcgcncc.
P Wc makc OutWay ntO a sma, sQatsc cOn!ctcncc tOOm at
I8 T H N U M 8 A T |
thc muscum and sct uQ Our tccOtdcrs, Ircca a tcccnt cOnvct-
satOn wtb tabbt haghaVan, te Obct Ot tcscatch at Xa-
hOO. c was dcsctbng hOw sOmc anaysts gct sO tangkd uQ
n hugc aOunts Ot data tbat tbcy sOt twO QcOQc whO shOud
bc n Ucsamc buOkct ntO dbctcnt Oncs. Naybc Onc Ot tbcm
s jL ycats Od, tOt cXamQc, and thc Othcr`s qy. hat bt Ot
data scnds tbcm ntO scQaratc buckcts, thOugb thctc` nO gOOd
tcasOn that t sbOud. IwOndct t mctc`s a smat QtObcm at
thc oP.
ochatz stcns gatcnty as ItcQaOkagc KghaVan`s cOncctns '
n a Qucston. Pc mctc tmcs, I ask, wbcn yOu ]ust haVc tOO
mucb data hcn t gcts n tbc way and cOnmscs tbngs c
sccms takcn aback by tbs nc Ot QucstOnng. NOtc data s
aways bcttct, bc says.

c cXQans mat sOmc OtganzatOns DaVc ttOubc manag-
ng Oads Ot data. Omc ask thc wtOng QucstOns. LtcOutsc,
bc wOnt tc mc abOut tbc natutc Ot data that mstcam s sh-
ng mtOugh actOss mc sttcct. c` Ony say tbat thc statst-
cans atc cn]Oyng a hcd day Md tbat tbc ntOtmatOn agc
has gVcn math a whOc ncw tc. but ccaty, whc QOtcans
and cv bcttatans wtangc OVct hOw many Ot Out QctsOna
dctas shOud bc thtOwn ntO ths natOna sccutq anayss,
QtObcm-sOVng matbOmatOans at tbc P atc aways baQQy
tO gct mOtc.
hc ntOtmatOn agc that Wc`t n s gOng tO bc an cn-
ttcy ncw cta Ot wbat wOud bc cacd aQQcd mathcmatcs,
chatz says. s umctat usc cVc statstca and mathcmat-
ca tOO n tbct atscna -tOQOogy, absttact agcbta, dbctcn-
ta cQuatOns, numbt thcOj tO Qccc tOgcthct ncwOtks,
QtcdOt mgtatOns, anayzc VOccs, and match QhOtOgtaQhcd
taccs tO Othcrs n a databasc. cbatz says thc agcncy has sccn
"
a cXQOsOn Ot mathcmatcs ntO ncw atcas. mc dcsctbcs
I R R 0 R | S I !9
mutdscQnaty tcams, Wbctc numbcts QcOQc WOtk cOscy
Wm cngnccts and cOmQutct sccntsts. Jbc custOmcts tOt
tbcsc tcams atc tbc ntcgcncc agcnts -Ohcn bcta atts
gtads, bc says [as nOd aQQtOVngy) . tcsumaby, mbaVc
tbc On-tbc-gtOundknOWcdgctO twcaktbc data mncts agO-
ttbms andstcctnVcstgatOts tOWatdknOWnbOtbcds OttcttOt
and mcnactng cans. ttbc agcnts baVc cads Ot, bcttct, cOn-
ctctc ntcg

ncc, tbcy C tutn a tOragng cXQcdtOn ntO a

mOtctatgctcdbunt.
bs sma ct_tOOgy muscum s a mOnumcnt tO tbc
cOdc-btcaktngbcrtagc Ottbc oP. LOVctnmcnts and atmcs
tbtOu@Out bstObaVc tccd On tbctccctcstgccKs tO dc-
Vsc scctct cOdcs tO QtOtcOt tbct Vtta mcssagcs. bVc asO
cOuntcd On tbcm tO back tbc scctcts cOmng ttOm tbc Otbcr
sdc. n Onc Ot tbc _ass cascs bctc s az Lctmanys m-
mOus Lngmamacbnc, WbOsc cOdcWas btOkcn byngcnOus
bttsb matbcmatcans. bs Was a kcy tO VctOty n Otd
at . tbtbctOundngOtmcoP, n1952, thc\. o. gOV-
ctnmcnt but cOdc btcaktng ntO an cnttc butcauctag. t
Qucky gtcW ntO tbc atgcst matb sbOQ n tbc WOt
g
[Wbcb
t tcmans tO tbs day, tbOu@ tbc agcncy ncVct dVugcs thc
numbcts) . bcsc cOdc btcakcts battcd On a kcy hOnt n mc
LOdat.ctbcLPOQctatVcsmctscOtctyWmsOutCcs,
hom satc bOuscs n bctn and NOscOW tO tbatcbcd buts
aOng tbc NckOng cta, tbct cOuntcrQatts at tbc oP cd
QuctctVcs. bcOmmutcdto omccs, btst nasbtngton,
tbcn atct tO tbcsc gass cubcs n subutban Najand. hctt
]Ob, Qutc smQy, WastO matOh matbcmatca WtsWm tbct
cOuntctQatts ntbcooVct\nOn.
bcn )amcs ocbatz sgncd On at tbc bP n 1979, ahct
gcttng

bts dOctO

atc n matb ttOm oytacusc \nVctsty, bc

stcQQcd tgbt ntO tbs ttadttOn. Ot bs htst 15 ycats, bc tcs
!J0 T H N U M 8 k T |
me, bcWOtkcdOnct_tOOgcamatb,dVngntO sOmc Ottbc
dccQcstandasyct unsOVcdcOnundrumsnmatbcmatcs, and
msbOnugtbcm

ntO asOttOtnumctcatmOttOWaQatOund
scctct cOmmunOatOns. O Qctcc tbs atmOt, tbc Otbct sdc
bad tO mastct sOmc cXttcmcy bcady matb. btOugOut tbc
LO!d at, cr_tOO@ Was at tbc ccntct Ot a matbcmatca
atms taOc.
back tbcn, tbc NSA tcam ddnt nccd tO dcVc ntO tbc
buman Qsycbc. bct mOtc sOcabc cOcagucs, tbc sQcs and
tbc dQOmats, bandcd tbat mut dOman. OWcVct, bytbc
tmc ocbatz Was QtOmOtcd tO bcad tbc matb dcQattmcnt, n
1994, cbangcs Wctc MOOt.bcbctna Wa nQcccs, and
tbc\ntcd otatcs ncWcncmcs, Wbctbct WatOtds, tcttOtsts,
OtntctnatOmmOncyaundctcts, Wctcscattctcda OVcttbc
WOtd. bc cbacn
b
c at tbc NSAWascss tO ctacktbct cOm-
muncatOns than tO bnd thcm. OW Wctc tbcy Otganzcdr
ctc dd tbcy gct tbct bnaucng at Wctc tbct Qans
bs ntOtmatOnddntttaVchgbycnct_tcdOnsccutcnct-
WOtks. Nucb Ott w mtngng ttccy Wtb tbc tcst Ottbc
gODcs Oattct. |ust !Kc tbc tcst Otus, mMy Ottbcsc Vans
Wctc m_tatng tbc dctas O tbct Vcs and tbct mssOns
. OntOmObucQbOncsandtbcntcmct.bcyWctc camOubagcd
byncwOtkcd bumantqJbs mcanttbat thc matbcmatOans
at tbc oP mccd a ncW and grOWug cbacngc. Nany bad
tO sbth tbctr tOcus ttOm Qutc matb tO tbc hur!y-buty bun-
dcs OtWOtds and Qctutcs and smu taccs and mOuc ccKs
tbat Wctc QOutng thtOugb tbc ncwOtks. oOmcWbctc n tbat
gtOWng mass Otunsttuctutcd data, tb bad tO bnd thc bad
gy and QcOc tOgctbct tbct nctwOtks. Ook at tbc whOc
tcccOmmuncatOns ndustp, a tbc ntOtmatOn tbats by-
ng atOund On tbc ntctnct, oOatz say. OW atc Wc actu-
ay gOng tO taQ a tbat tOt mc gOOd Otmanknd O Oj
I R R 0 R | S I !J!
outthercentra|msson-protectngus-themathematcans
at the MSA, |ke the Mumerate|sewhere, had to hgure out
humans.
THE YEAR WAS 2OO2. MAJ troops had stormed through
Aanstan. JheU. S. governmentwa threatenngto attack
Iraq.And]eh]onas,|kcmanyothers,w st||obsessedwith
the attacks that trggered thcse wars. ]onas, a sohare en-
trepreneur n LasVegas, cou|dn`t stopthnking about 9/ 1 1 .
GventhenIormatonthatthegovernmcntpossesseddurng
theweeksandmonthsbeorethetragedy, couldanextrcme|y
smartdatas|euthwiththerghttoo|spossb|yhaveunrave|ed
thebrewngp|ot ando|edt:]onaswas noexpertonnter-
natona| terrorsm, or onIs|amst jhad. At ths pont nhs
|e, hehadnevereventrave|edoutsdetheUntedStates. ut
hewas a |eadngexpcrton hnd|ng peop|ewhowantto stay
hdden. He thoughthsapproachaswormconsdcr|ng.
|onas,who'snowachescentstatIM,ste||ngmeths
storyoverChineseoodatastrpma||neartheLasVegasar-
port.He'sacat|ikehguredressednb|ackHe|eansacrossthe
tab|etowardmea he ta,

hsneat|ytrmmcdgoateehover-
ngovermyhedhsh. Fo||owngtheattack,hesays,hepored
overpub|crecords,romnewspaperartc|estograndjurytes-
tmony. Hewas |ookng |or paths that cou|d (and shou|d)
have drawn nvestgators to thebombers. Heoundthattwo
olme terrorists, MawaA|hm and Kid Amhdhar, had
been p|aced on the State OepartmentVatch List mo weeks
mer Fresdent ush got word about p|anned A Qeda at-
tack. It seems easy, wth hndsgt, to say that investgators
shou|d have trackd them down. ut|onas notes that these
twomenwere|nkdtoprevous attacksontheUSS Col and
132 T H N U M 8 k T |
the \..Embassy in Nairobi. They were aready targts of the
higest priority. "We're not talking about people on illegal vi
sas," he say, "That number is in the millions. We're talking
about known terrorist killers in the United States. That's a
small list."
If. investigators had looked for them, Jonas discovered,
they could have found them in the San Diego' phone book.
Day afer landing on the watc list, the tw! men reserved
plane tickets in teir own names. Even without knowng that
those 3c would turn into bombs, investigators should
have seen tose naes pop up. "These gy were hiding in
plain sigt," Jonas says; He w trough the evidence, step
by step. Roommates shared phone numbers and other con
nections linking them to the oter paticipants in the plot. It's
true that investigators, given these details, would still have re
mained clueless about what this network w ultimately up to.
They would have seen only that a group of people wt links
to past acts of terror were busy renting hotel rooms, making
phone cals, and buyng plane tickets. The arrests would be
based on the people's records and contacts -not what m
were planning to do. But detaining them may have foiled
their plot. The subtext of Jona's argument, of course, is that
investigators could have located tese killers by maing better
use of the data and the tools the had at hand.
Ny have I Hown al te wy out to L Vegas to spend
time wth Jef Jonas? I want to fnd out how a societ can
monitor itself yet remain fee ad uinhibited, even siffl,
by using the tools of te Numerati. Jonas is the ideal guide
, for tis. He's vehemendy opposed to the use of statistical data
, mining to predict the next terrorist attacks. He fs its intru
sions ad fse alerts. Yet he trusts that data and surlance
c protect our, freedoms wit,out sacrifcing our privcy. His
T 8 8 0 8 | 5 T IJJ
mcthodisn'tsodihcrcnttromthatotanod-tashioncddctcc-
tivc. Itstartswimacad.asuspcct,adoortoknockon, asign
otsuspicious bchavior.And ittoows thc trais otdatatrom
thcrc. Jhis is what I cl thc gumshoc approach, a tocuscd
atcmativc to prcdictivc datamining. |onas tod mc months
ago,ovcrlunchinMcYork,thatLasVcgaswasapcrtccttcst
casctorgumshocs.Jhat'swhatI'vccomctoscc.
|onas has buithisbusincss and his tortunc ontoowing
thrcads otdata. Hc bcgan dcvcoping his targctcd approach

bytrackingagroupotaquatickicrsandthcirvictims. Itwas
cary1995 whcnte youngsoharcwhizhrstarrivcdtowork
at thc Miragc Hotc in L Vcgas. Jhc hsh swimming inthc
massivc aquarium at thc Miragc wcrcworth $1 miion. ut
thcrcw aprobcm. ancyhshwcrc disappcaring-prcsum-
abyinto thcmouths otthcir tank matcs. |onas's jobwas to
buid a trackingsystcm tor hsh so that thc casino coud ca-
cuIatc thcsurviva ratc torcach t_c-andavoid invcsting in
Oarwinianoscrs. |onas, asuprcmcysocia anima, carncd a
ot about thc casino busincss whic acquainting himsctwim
thc movcmcnts ot tropica hsh. usincss was booming, hc
hcd, and thiswas crcatingvuncrabiitics. P thousands ot
pcopcstrcamcdthroughthcirdoors,thccasinoswcrchnding
ithardcrtokccpthcircycouttorthicvcs andchcatcrs.Jhcy
nccdcdasystcmmorcadvanccdthanthconc|onaswasbuid-
ing for thc aquarium. In thc hunt tor humans, thcywoud
bcookingtorspccihcprcdators. ordccadcs,thccasinohad
cntrustcdmisworkto pcopIc. utthingswcrcgcttingoutot
hand.Jhcnumbcrswcrctoobig.
So |onas buitsoharc to hcp casinos pinpointknown
chcatcrs, grihcrs, and goons -what casino cxccs rctcr to as
"subjcctsotintcrcst.CalcdMR,whichstandstornon-ob-
viousrcationship awarcncss, it spcciaizcd in rihing through
!J4 T H N U M 8 k T |
my didcrcnt poos ot intcrna casino data, trom pcrson-
nc hcsto crcditappications, ookng tor common thrcads.
NR might scc, torcxampIc, that Krista, who was on thc
suspcct ist, had thc same bomc phonc numbcr Jammy,
who had just appicd tor a job as a backjack dcacr. Vcrc
th partncrs in crimc! NRhighigbtcd thc corrcations.
Jhcn itwas up to humans to dig tor thc answcrs. ut picc-
ingtogcthcrthcscconncctionstrom ascaotdatawasinvalu-
abc. NR, quitc simpy, hcpcd straightcn out who was
who.
NR, unikc othcr data-combing sctups, docsnt ook
justbackamintimc.ltasorcachcsintomcmturc. Lct'ssay
a casino is on thc ookout lor thc cadcr ota gang who uscs
thcIntcrnctto puttogcmcrteams olcrooks. Jhisisagrow
ing probcm. ) Jhcyvc dug around and havc a tcw tacts on
him-say, an alias, two phonc numbcrs, and an addrcss. In
atraditionabackward-ookngdatahunt, invcstigators comb
througba otthcirrccordsookngtorsignsoIhim.Iothing
turnsup!Jhankgoodncss . a . Butwhatitthcvcryncxtdaya
hicndy, big-tippingtouristchccksinatthccasino.Jhcphonc
numbcrhcscrawsonmcrcgistrytormisoncotthcwotrom
thcist.Inatraditionasystcm,thccasinowontspothimun-
ti thcyhuntagain. utwithNOR, cach ncwpicccotdata
-cach phonc numbcr, cach nc d addrcss -crcatcs a
ncwquery. Itaskthe. system, "Hey, ayhing fshy about this
onc!Jhat's howNR cxtcnds torward in timc. !t's con-
stanuy at work, prospccting into thc mturc, asscmbing thc
bitsotcvidcnccastbcyrivc.
Acr|onas unvcicdLK, itwasjustamattcr ottime
bctorc othcr companics and govcrnmcnt agcncics bcgan
kockingathisdoor.The challenges othndingidcntiticsand
tracingconncctionswithinvastdatabascswcrchardyuniquc
T R R 0 R | 5 T !J5
to Las Vcgas. Anybody intcrcstcd in sorting tbrough data to
hnd and prohc shoppcrs or paticnts or votcrs or workcrs
or Iovcrs . . . in short, cntirc ranks otthc Mumcrati dcspcr-
atcy nccdcd NR, or somcthing ikc it. Jhos hungricst
tor NR wcrcwrcstingwith thc biggcst and mcssicst scts
otdata in thc word as thcyscarchcd tor thc idcntitics and
movcmcnts ottcrrorists. In|anuary 2001, In-QJc, thc vcn-
turc-hnancingarmotthcCcntraIntcigcncc{cncy, bought
a sharc ot|onas's c

mpany, Systcms Rcscarch and Ocvcop-

mcnt (SR) . Andtoowing thc attacks ot9/ 1 1 , NRwas
cnistcd in thc war against tcrrorism. Four ycs atcr, IM
boughtSROtorundiscoscdmiions.Jhismadc|onasarich
man and turncd thc cntrcprcncur into a distinguishcd cngi-
nccr and chict scicntist at ig uc. His start-up morphcd
into IM'sLntityAnaytics group. Inhis ncwroc,|onashas
aotto sayaboutthc usc ottcchnoogtornationasccurity.
Hc sitsonpancs, tcstihcs atinquirics convcncdbythcprcsi-
dcnt,andisacadcr inIM'schortsonthcdctcnsivctrontot
thisncwwar.
|onas tcs mcthathcwas a bcach bum and guitarpaycr
as akid. utinthc tcnthgradchcsigncdup tor a computcr
cass and thcn took anothcr onc. cn hc ran out otcom-
putcr courscs, hc tod himsct, I'm out othcrc. Hc passcd
thcgraduatccquivacncycxam anddroppcdout.ithin two
ycars, |onas was running a booming soharc busincss, Prc-
tcrrcd Programming Scrviccs. uthckncwaotmorc about
writing soharc than running a busincss. Jhc dcbt got out
othd, andhcwcntbankrupt. ythctimchcwas20, |onas
wassccpinginhiscar.
Hccawcd hiswayback into thcsoharc busincss. Lvcn
bclorchndingapacc toivc, hcstartcduphisncxtcompany,

SRO. Jhc busincss tookoh. utat agc 24, |onashitanothcr

!J5 T H N U M 8 k T |
big quning point. Wile checking Out a new BM he had a
saesma take him for a ride-and the saesman drove the c
of te road. Jonas broke his neck. For a short while, he was
paralyed. Aer he regained se of his , limbs, he worked his
way 'thrugh a long rehab ad back to ftness. But the center
of his spina cord, he says, is dead. Ad to this day he has only
slight feeling on the rgt side of his body. "I can feel the dif
ference between the point of a pencil and meeraser," he says,
poking his fngers with a fork. He grips a glass of ice water.
"But I cat tell the diference between heat and cold. Ad I
dont feel pain very well." Ever since te accident, Jona has
been a perpetual motion machine (with a sk-high threshold
for pain) . He schedules his bsiness meetings and conferences
in places like Singapore, btau, and New Zeaand to coincide
with Ironman Triathlons. One day he's telling a roomfl of
executives how to locate people with sofare, and the next
day he's swimming across a bay, biking up and down a moun
tain, and running for as long as Iq hours straight. He says he
thrives on such episodes. Sometimes, he says, he peels of his
shoe ad sees that he's ripped of a toenail.
"I think I can get you into a crow's nest," Jonas tells me
one afernoon. He's referring to the surveillance room high
above the casino foor. He's eager for me to look at the world
through the securit managers' eyes, not so much for all the
details they can see fom up there, but tOt what they ignore.
This is mc key to a kinds of sureillance, he says: what to
focus on. It's crucial in L Nc@. People come here to do
a kinds of things they dont dare, try back home. They crave
the freedom to blow money, drink way too much, and follow
virtualy every anima impuse that stirs them, ftom staring
down a bartender's dress to arranging a menage trois -al
of te record. In short, they want to sin anonymously, which
I R R 0 R | 5 I !J
s anOtbctWayOtsaytngtbat tbtc OOKng tOt ttccdOm and
QttVacy. Ottbts, Oddy cnOugb, tbcy cOmc tntO a datkWOtd
bttsttngWtmcamctas. tmaybcaVtstttO tbcmtutc, tnWbcb
camctas and Otbct scnsOts suttOund us and QtOtcct us ttOm
batm. c Can Ony Qtay tbat tbc QOWcts mat bcWt sttcktO
tbat mandatc and tcsQcct Out scctcts. |cd|Onas gucs tbat
casnOs baVc cOmc as OOsc as anyOnctO mastctng tbs baanc-
tngact.
H8R8 IT I S .
"
at
occWbatsbcddWtbhctband
ayttagan.
JbankstO|Ouass OOnncctOns,muQntbcctOWsncstOt
ama]OtcasnO tn LasNcgas. ts datk. NOstOttbctgbtcOmcs
ttOmtbc dOzcns OJNmOntOts bnKngttOmthcWa. Our
Otu atcgathctcdatOundOncOttbcscNs.ctcOOkngat a
yOungWOmanWbOsdttnkn_and]OkngWttbbcthtcndsand
baVng tbc bcst Ottmcs -Wbtc sbc cbcats at tbc back]ack
tabc. O bc tat, Wctc studyng cVcty band sbc ha Qaycd,
andWc scc bct cbcat Ony Oncc. t baQQcns Qutcky. Jbccatds
atc dcat. ct bct ts Qaccd. obc bas a back]ack, a Wnnng
band. PdWttb a gbtnng gcstutc-Wbcb bnd csQccay
tmQtcssVc, cOnsdctngbOWbcaVysbcs dtnKng-sbc adds
anotbcr $j cbtQ to bct bct. bats tcga, a gamtng VtoattOn,
as tbcyca tttnNcgas.
Ltantcd, sbcbasntsncakcdOadcddOcOntOtbcctaQsta-
bc Ot bcd dOWn tbc ba bcattngs n tbc tOucttc Wbcc. but
bct mOVc ts a ctmc, and m QtVy tO tbc dtscusstOn n tbts
dgta ctOWs ncst abOut bOW ]usttcc s tO bc admtntstctcd.
bts ts ttc at tbc bcatt Ota sutVcancc sOctcty, tbtnk, as
!J8 T H N U M 8 k T |
look around. It's an impressive view. The casinos have fed
cameras staring dow at every table. Trackng cameras cover
neay every inch of foor space. Alof tese send video to the
banks of TV screens in front of us . . Wen I arrived, we test
drove these tools by following one customer, a man who had
just waled into the casino. He was carryng a backpack ov

r
one shoulder. His eyes were probably still adjusting from the
desert glare outside to the dusk shades. of the gambling den.
The surveillance team tracked his movements, switching fom
camera to camera. They exchanged terse coordinates, l pi
lots on a bombing run. We watched fom screen to screen as
the man made his way through the banks of slot machines,
past the raps tables and the bar, and fnally to ' the hotel's
front desk. I was hoping, for his sae, that he wouldnt scratch
himself or stick an idle fnger into his ear along the way He
was performing for a crowd.
P few minutes later, the surveillance team got word fom
the foor to study the behavior of a woman at a blackjack ta
ble. She's the one we're watching now. She's in her tentes,
I'd say She's playing with to oters, both men. Theyre smil
ing and joking. She's wearing a low-cut blouse with spaghetti
straps. She taes sips from her drink, which she holds wit her
lef hand, and she occasional y reaches up to m a strap that
keeps falling from her shoulder. On one monitor we watch
the hands she's playing. She has to cards totaling Iqand asks
for another. She gets a king. Woops. That puts her over 2I,
which means she's lost te hand. It hardly seems to ruin her
fn. Meanwhile, at anoter monitor, someone else on te
team has rewound te tape. (Yes, it's a NL, which seems sur
prisingly primitive to me.) He's watching every hand she has
played. He's the one who sees her cheat. "Got it," he says, and
promptly cues it up for us. We watc the illega move an
J k k 0 0 | 5 J !J9
andagaininsowmotionlsntthcdcacrookingrightathcr!
Oidn'thcsccit!Oidthcothcrsdosomcthingtodistracthim!
lt'shardtotc.
om, thccasinohasconcrctccvidcnccthatshchasbrokcn
thc aw. P discussion cnsucs. ls shc apro! Is shcdrunk! !s it
possibcshcdocsntknowthcrucs!Jhcydccidcshc's nopro.
lt'sony$5, ahcral. Jhcyscndasupcrvisoronthchoortotak
to hcras shcandhcrhicnds arc cavingthc tabc. c wtch.
5hc's surpriscd, conmscd, and thcn gravc. Jhcn thc supcrvi-
or say somcthing that puts hcr at casc. Shc rccs, smics,
jokcs, and thcn gocs hcr tipsyway. Jhc authoritics havc ct
hcrknowthatshc,alongwitha thcothcrgambcrs,ays hcr
bcts undcr a cgion otwatchm cycs. ut thcyvc optcd this
timcnotto dampcn thcpartyingmood. lnhct, as shcwaks
awythcystidon'tknowhcrnamc.ltdocsntmattcr.
Jhc samc gocs torthc othcrgamcrs miing about bcow.
Vcthcrthrcsidcdupto thc bardowningCubaLibrcsor
grimytccdingquartcrstromapapcrcupintoasotmachinc,
thcyrctrcc.Nohngcrwagginghcrc.ltthcypaywithcashand
ookodcr man 21, no oncasksthcirnamcs.Jhrcanony-
mous. Adyct thcyrc at pay undcr thc gazc otpit captains
and sccuriqtorccs on thc hoorand thcir tcammatcs up hcrc
inthcsurvcianccroom.
Vatdctais,laskthcbossinthccrow'sncst,docsthcca-
sino nccd to cocct in ordcrto pick outthc handm otgrih-
cnandthiccs!atdatascparates thcmtromthcrcstotus!
Hcsayitbois down tomrccqucstions.Acmcyonthc ca-
sino's ist otknown crooks, chcatcrs, andcardcountcrs! Oocs
thcirbchaviorinthccasinoignamaiciousdcsigns!Adarc
thcywinningots otmoncy! Ityouthinkabout it, thcsc thrcc
qucstions arc thc undcrpinnings otmost poicc and intci-
gcnccwork. Oocs thcpcrsonhavc arccord!lshcactingsus-
.
!40 T H N U M 8 k T |
QOOusy, QcthaQs n cahOOts Wth Othcts Pnd s hc n Ot ncat
thc sQOt whcn sghcant cVcnts t
@
c Qacc, whcthct thcytc
bus bOmbngs n OndOn Ot a mbuOus Qncb-mc-and-tc-
mc-`m-nOt-dtcamng tun On a ctaQs tabc n Ncgas
t`s thc tOks hctc n thc ctOw`s ncst and On thc hOOt whO
sctutnzc thc bchaVOt Ot thc gambcts. hc sgnas thcytc
OOKng tOt atc mtOO sOQbstcatcd and nuaDccd tOt machncs
Ot data mnng tO Qck uQ. oOmc QcOQc, tOt CamQc, atcnt
smng Ot dtnktng. hcy OOk kc thcy`tc wOtKng, Dc says.
Omc Ot thcm mac gcstutcs that cOud bc sgnas. hcy takc
thct hands thtOugh thct hat nsstcnd Ot thcy makc a tQ-
Qng gcstutc w
t
h a dtnk. Omc Qut tny catd-OOuntng cOm-
Qutcts ntO thct sbOcs and mMc sma mOVcmcnts as thcy ht
butns wth thct tOcs. hcsc _cstutcs ht ntO Qattctns sut-
Vcancc tcams atc taugt. CKng thcm uQ tcQutcs ObscC-
tOn and human ntcgcncc.
Jhc f casct sgnas cOmc ttOm numbcts. Jbcy shOud
bc ]ust a Qtcdctabc, On aVctagc, as thc uans Qung ntO a
Zutch statOn. n tbc shOtt tun, thcy huctuatc, gVng hOQc
tO Ong-shOt gabcts. but Wth tmc, cach tOO hts ts stan-
datd tatc Ot tctutn-caOh Onc Ot thcm mVOtng te casnO.
cn casnOs scc dcVatOns hOm thc cXQcctcd numbcts, thcy
gO tac a OOk.
hc thtd catcgOty cOmcs ttOm data. hat`s wbctc tbngs
haVc cangcdand hctc QcOQc kc )ch )onas makc a dt-
tctcncc. n tbc caty ycats, LNcgas tccd On Qug_cd-n QcO-
Qc tO cOcct data. LQctts cOmbcd thtOu@ hOtc, ctcdt, and
QctsOnnc hcs, OOkng tOt fi whO aQQcatcd as sub]ccts

Ot ntctcst. hcy zctOcd n, Ot cOutsc, On knOWn ctOOKs and
chcatcts wbO shOud bc shOwn thc dOOt-Ot Ockcd uQ. but
thc data hOunds wctc asO On thc OOkOut tOt hgh tOcrs whO
shOud bc uQgtadcd tO uxuty sutcs Ot cOmQcd a magnum Ot
T R R 0 R | 5 T !4!
champagnc. cn it camc to spotting somcthing out otthc
ordinary, whcthcrpromisingorsuspicious, nomachinccoud
riv a smart and cxpcricnccd human. Jhink otHumphrcy
ogart's charactcrRckinthcmovic Caablnca. Hc'dcycba
thc hoor andscanthccdgcr namcs. Hckncwthc sordid sto-
rics. Hc kcpt up withthc cvoving tangc ottricndships and
aianccs. Hchadthcpaccscopcdout. utthcscjumbocasi-
noshavcgrowntar too bigIorthchumanapproach. Somc ot
thcm havc morc than 3, 000 rooms. Jhcy cntcrtain 100,000
visitors in a singc day-considcraby morc than Ricks gin
joint in Vcst Atrica. Jhcy nccd powcrm machincs to sort
through thc data. Ad thc approach thc casinos usc, |onas
says, coud hcp sharpcn thc tocus in thc battc against tcr-
rorism.
tcoursc, wc cant punch thc piow and ro ovcr,
conhdcnt mat thc most dangcrous tcrrorists wi pop up on
govcrnmcnt watch ists, obcdicnty pubish thcir namcs and
addrcsscs inphoncbooks,andrcscrvc panc tkkcts and ho-
tcroomstorthcirsuicidacohorts.Jhatwoudbctoomuch
towishtor. Vc don't havc athcsuspccts on rccord, not by
a ong shot. Jhc gumshocs arc short on cads. Oata mincrs,
mcanwhic, ohcn struggc to hnd mcaningm signas. Oocs
this mcan thatthc govcrnmcnt cas ohthc ccctronic hunt
tortcrrorists andthcNumcrati rctrcat to satcrandsurcrjobs
in advcrtisingandgroccrystorcs,whcrcthcirstatisticamcth-
odsworkhnc! Not onyour itc.Jhc nccdto cosc thc intc-
igcncc gap is urgcnt. ur satcq is at stakc. Sowc rcach tor
somcthing,cvcnitit'stauty,toprotcctus. Incuturcsthatarc
toug topcnctratcandundcrstand,dataminingat castohcrs
thc possibiityothndingsomcthing. In csscncc, wc compcn-
satctorourshortcomingsinanguagcsandon-thc-groundin-
rcligcnccwithahcavydoscotunprovcntcchnoogy
I4 T H N U M 8 k T I
Jhis is mcing a rcscarchcrs' god rush, a pcriod otwidc
and wid cxpcrimcntation. Jhc Numcrati arc rcaching into
any discipinc thc hnd,whcthcrit's cconomics, ghyics,
boogy, orsocioog,touncarthtormuasthatc bctwcakcd
to prcdict thc bchavior ottcrrorists. Jhrc not ony in thc
busincsolminingdata, thrca|sominingthcorics,manyot
thcmhatchcdongbctorc computcrs wcrc aroundto cruncb
thcnumbcrs.Jhcidcisthatccrtainpattcms, bothinhuman
bchavior and m naturc, pop up in dihcrcnt rcams. Maybc
somc otthcmwihcp cxposcsccpcrccsorbomb tactorics.
Rcscarchcrs havc ccnturicsotdata, torcxampc,onthcdim-
sion otpagucs and cpidcmics.Jhcycantcyou, matbcmati-
cay, thc danccs that thc sccds trom my dandcion-intcstcd
yard wi hoat onto my ncigbor's pristinc, manicurcd awn
across thc strcct. Oothc hatcm idcas ottcrrorists sprcad in
simiar pacrns! Lo tcrror ccs mcttasizc ikc canccr! Oo
te mutatc andcvovc ikc ccrtain viruscs! No! Howabout
ityouchangcavriabcorwo!5ociscicntistsstudythc

cv-
utionotnctwork, hom thosc on MySpacc to ccphoncus-
crs in Singapor. Who arc thc hubs in thcsc nctworks! How
do U risc to this status! Oo thcir sphcrcs otinducnccshih
withtimc!{n, what rcscarchcrs carn hcrc anbc boicd
dowto thcmathcmat
ics othumancommunication andor-
ganizationacrossnctworks.OocsPQacdatoowsimiarpat-
tcrns!
JUST AS OUR cxpcricncc on thc Intcrnct is moving bcyond
thc writtcn word, so is thc datapouring into NS^ comput-
crs. Much otit arrivcs as spokcn voiccs, imgcs, and vidco.
tmight bcatacc inacrowd inaghdad,orpcrhaps a raspy
voicc givingordcrs inarsi lromaS|c account somcwhcrc
T 8 8 0 8 | 5 T !4J
in thc Horn otArica.Jo minc this outpouringotdata, ma-
chincs must makc scnsc otthc words wc spcak in scorcs ot
anguagcs.Jhcymust carn to pickout onc orwotaccstrom
six biion omcrs. Jo cxtcnd thcir ncts into sounds and im-
gcs, thc countcrtcrrorists nccdncwtcchnoogics. Kcscarch-
crs aroundmcword,manyotthcmscoopinguprichgovcrn-
mcntgrants,arcbusyasscmbingthcm.
\
Jhis tcchnoogyhas bccn rcpaycdin thc movics soong
thatitsccmstiiar.P machincautomaticaysortsmrough
photos otpcopc at a cae in Jripoi or Krachi, orpcrhaps
crowd shots at thc ympics. Jhcn it matchcs thc taccs in
thcphotoswith adossicrotknown and suspcctcd tcrrorists.
Jhat'sthcgoa.P thcscsystcmstakcshapc,ourtaccswihnd
thcirway into cnormous databascs. Jhcn computcrs runby
govcmmcntsandcorporationswibcabc tomapthcmovc-
mcnts othumaniq Formost otus, in truth, thiswontmakc
muchdihcrcncc. Ourtaccswishowup aongthcsamctrais
drawn by our airpanc tickcts, crcdit card bis, and-abovc
a -ourccphoncs.Yctthcsctaciimagcs coudprovcvita
torpoicc.Jhcycoudcapturc dataonpcopcwho arc strug-
g|ngmightiytostayohthcgrid.Pphotorcadcrmighthnd,
tor cxampc, thatthcsamc grccn-cycd man with a bump in
his nosc andascaronhisip h travccd atctthrcc timcs
thisycarbcwccnNcark, thcroughParisiansuburbotSaint-
Ocnis, andCairo.Oocsthattaccpopup onothcrdatabascs!
P goba snooping ncwork is rcady cmcrging. Brirain
has bccn an carycadcr in instaingsccurity camcras, with
200,000 opcrating in London aonc. Jhc imagc otthc avcr-
agc riton, poiccsay, is capturcdbyas manyas 300 ccras
pcr day. ^crican citics, incuding Chicago and Ncw York,
arc rushingto toowsuit.Andatcin2007, accordingto thc
Ne Yrk Tmes, thc Chincsc govcrnmcnt announccd pans
!44 T H N U M 8 k T |
nOt Ony tO mOntOt tbc sttccts Ottbc sOuthctn cty Otobcn-
zbcnWtb 20,000 QOOc camctas butasOtO gVc QOcc tbctc
acOcss tO t)c tccds ttOm anOtbct 180,000 VdcO camctas tun
by tbc gOVcmmcntandQtVatccOmQaDcs.
Al OtDs, ttOm bOmbct tO subWay Qasscngcts, W Dc
Qayng cVct bggct tOcs n tbcsc sutVcanCc hms. but On
tbs gObastagc-unkc tbc cOcasnOs DaNcgas -tbctc
atcut ncaty cnOugb buman WOtKcts tO 1OntOt a tbc ac-
tOn. PdtbcmacbncjtO shtbrOugbaltbsVdcO sntyct
uQ tO tbc ]Ob. Pt ms QOnt, a autOmatcd systcm c cOm-
patc mug sbOts OtsusQcctsWm thOusand OtQbOtOs On bc,
andsuggcstabandmOttbcmtbatbaVcasmattacaQtObc
-bctOtc bandngOVcttbc ]Ob tO bumans. LcsQtcWbatO-
yWOOdWOud baVc yOu bccVc, dcntqng taccs n tbc tca
WOtd s st Vcty muCb a WOtk n QtOgtcss. accs duck n
andOutOtshadOWs. JbcytumttOmfltaCc tOQtObc.Jbcy
tgbtcnasWcaugbandbugcasWc cat.tbagc, tbcysQtOut
bcatds,Osctcctb,ganbch, gtOWIcWncs andmttOWs. n-
QOntug tbc samc tacc tbtOugb a tbOsc cbangcs s an m-
mcnscy cOmQcatcd tasktOt a macbnc. but tbc cOmQutcts
atc gcttug cOsct. Jbc \. . PatOna nstttutc tOt otandatds
andccbnOOgybcd a Ltand Lbacngc tOt tacc-tccOgntOn
systcms n 2006. Kcscatcbcts bad tO dcVcOQ 3-O mOdcs Ot
taOcssOtbattbcycOudbctccOgncdttOmaVatctyOangcs.
n tbc tOut ycars sncc tbc QtcVtOus cOmQcttOn, tcsuts m-
QtOVcdbyatactOtOttcn.

oOcntsts atc asO dcVngmOtc dccQyntO tbc nOscs Wc

makc. bcytc 8ayug nOt|ustmc WOtds Wc uttct but cVcn
tbc tmbtc On OutVOOc. Kcscatcbcts at bb ncat OstOn, tOt
cXamQc, baVc gOVctnmcut cOnttaOts tO study Uc cbccts Ot
cmOtOnOnOutVOccs. cnyOut

undcr strcss, yOuQtO-

duccsOundsddctcnty, says mcrbLsb, tbccbctsccntstat
T 8 R 0 8 | 5 T !45
thccompany. rc thcscdihcrcntfromwhcnyou'rcangry, or
sad! Naturally, thcy tacklc this challcngc, likc so many oth-
crs, by brcaking down thcvoicc into bits ofdata. Jhcystudy
thcpattcrns, almost as ifthwcrcstrandsofOMA, andcor-
rclatc thcm mathcmatically to thc cmotions thcy cxprcss. At
somcpoint,Gishsays, rcscarchcrswillhavctoolsto gaugc thc
likclihood that thc voicc cchoingthrough thc phonc linc or
ovcr thc Intcrnct comcs from apcrson who is sad, angry, or
tcnsc.Jhismcansmorcworkfordatamincrs.Jhcyhavcto
writcalgorithmstoburrowthroughvastaudiohlcs,scarching
notjustforkcywordsorncworkpattcrnsbutccrtainmoods.
Jhclcvclofcomplcxityshootscvcrupward.
A govcrnmcntslcuths digdccpcrinto nctworks anddata,
thcy hnd thcmsclvcs wrcstling with thc samc challcngcs as
thc umcrati clscwhcrc, at Googlc, at \mbria, and at Mi-
crosoh. Spics and advcrtiscrs arcworkingon thc samcmath.
Jhis lcads to a battlc for prccious brainpowcr. A gcncration
ago,thcNSAcouldlayclaim, initsquictway, tomanyotthc
brightcstmatbcmaticiansandcomputcrscicntistsinthccoun-
try. utnowthcyhavctocompctcwimIntcrnctgiantsworth
hundrcds ofbillions ofdollars. Jhcrc's a global racc for star
talcnt. cn hotshots likc Yahoo's Rghavan, a formcr star
at IM Rcscarch, stcp into thc Intcrnctjob markct, bidding
battlcs crupt. In Rghavans casc, it was bctwccn Microsoh
andYahoo.othcompanicsstrugglctokccpupwithGooglc,
whichhas bccnmintingmillionaircs all ovcr mcworld. How
can thc NSAcompctc!Vat's morc, thcIntcrnctcompanics
arc lrcctoopcnrcscarchdivisionsinIndia, China,|apan,and
Luropc-whichproducc morc mathcmaticians and scicntists
thanthc\nitcdStatcsdocs.Pdaswc'vcsccninncarlycvcry
chaptcrofthisbook,thcsccompanicshircplcntyofgihcdfor-
cigncrsinthc\nitcdStatcs.hc NSA, bycontrt, islimitcd
I45 T H N U M 8 k T |
to \. . citizcns -ascvcrc constraint. Schatz says thc agcncy
can sti and grcat oncs, pcopc who arc drawn to a scttcd
suburbanilc, nation scrvicc, and a chancc to grappcwith
outsizcdchacngcs.
Sti,whcnitcomcstotrackngdownthcikcsotAQacda
through data, thcgovcrnmcntcanhardydo thcworkaonc.
Sothcyfarmmuch Otout.Jhcy takc vasthcsofso-calcd
tcrroristdata.Jhcydcclassi|thchcsbychangingnamcsand
othcr fcaturcs. Jhcn thcy distributc thcsc scts to univcrsity
and corporatc rcscarchcrs. Jhis opcns thc job to thousands
who hnd thcmscvcs, as I do, outsidc thc fcnccd compound
ofthcNSA.
HAVE YOU EVER mctsomconcandmought,"sn'titstrangc
that I didn't mcct this pcrson bclorc: It's usuay somconc
whosc path crosscs with yours. Maybc you ivc in thc samc
ncighborhood. Maybc you ridc thc samc train cvcry morn-
ing,oryouhavcancxortwoincommon. Pcrbapsyouarcthc
onywo inyoursccpytowwhohavc picrccd tongucs and
grccnhair.
Nowimaginctryngtoprcdictmcncxtfricndyoumcct.
icb ofyour circcs wiI this pcrson cmcrgc from!ich
tacts aboutyoursct andaboutothcrs, arc mostikcyto cad
to thc conncction! Rcscarchcrs at Carncgic Mcon \nivcr-
siq arc scarching tor answrs as thcy wadc through gobs ot
uncassihcdsurvcilanccdatafromthcOcpartmcutofHomc-
andSccurity.
Lct'ssaythattbrccsuspcctcdbombcrswcrcspottcdawcck
agoinNairobi.Jhcrc'snosignotthcmnow.utchanccsarc,
thcywcrcmngpanswithcomradcs, pcrhaps mcmbcrs of
sccpcr ccs.o a thcsc hiddcn aics: hcn, says Artur
T 8 8 0 8 | 5 T !4
Oubrawsk, one o the LN\ researchers, the government
has data on |ots opeop|e. lt knows that a ew othem are
suspectedterrorsts, buteveryonee|sesjustaname. Sohow
do nvestgators kn

wwhereto |ook:Vch othose names

are most|ke|yto beassocatedwththose threewho passed
mrougMarob:
It's easer to magne the math nvo|ved here by pctur-
ng your own |e d your own rends. Say you're havng
our peop|e to dnner, d you want to hnd a hhh guest.
Jbiswou|ddea||ybesomeonewhowou|dhtneat|yntothe
group, ether throug shared rendshps or va|ues. Jhs s
whatthe LN\ teamwou|dO "anextriend."You andthe
Iourpeop|e nths tnyexamp|e are gong to bethe tranng
set. You're gong to add up thevarous|nks yousharewth
thos peop|e ad then use themto ca|cu|ate the most |key
f guest. Sogo att. Vateaturesdoyousharewiththese
peop|e`Let'ssaytwoothemare |awyers,|keyou. Jhreeare
women. nesarendoyoursster's. nesaormer|over.
ne oIthctwo|awyerswentto summercampwthyouback
in

the rp&os. He |ves upsta|rs. Jwo othem speak exce||ent

French, a |anguage you |ove, and a thrd cooks good French
ood. Someotheeaturesmayseemout|andshorbesdethe
pont. Maybe you knowor aIact that three othese peop|e
snore,orthattwool themusedtodatedp|omats.Includeeve-
rythng.Jhe rre|evant stuh-the noise- w|| bcbushed out
|ater.
Mow pcture yourse|| and your our guests as hve dots
on a graph. In the woud osoca| nemorks, these are ca||ed
nodes. (Andmost tranngsetshavehundredsorthousandso
them.) Each |nk shared amongthe hve peop|e s a |ne con-
nectngthem, aso-c|ededge. Inthecomputerwor|d,these
graphs exst n |mt|ess dmensons, |ke Umbras b|og un-
I48 T H N U M 8 k T |
verse. You dont have to worry aout tese thousands of edges
running into eac other and maing a mess, the way ' they
migt in a grade-school science project. There's space for a
of them. The next step is to caculate the importance of each
edge. This involves statistics. Which link most distinguish
your fiends from everyone else in the world? If you're invit
ing bot men and women to your dinner part the gender
link are meaingless predictors. In that respect, your part
refects the word. 'he Net Friend approach zeros in on the
links that set your party apart. The lawyer links, for example,
the French, the summer camp connection, those are probably
much more predicqve. So tere given a higher score, or coef
fcient. Those lines on the graph are thicker. Now it's time for
eMU's program to put a ,the numbers together and create
a composite profle of your most likly "net friend." Then it
will go throug a database of your fiends and give them each
a score. The higest-raing person on the list is its choice as
the most likly to enjoy dinner next Saturday with you. How
did that person get stch a sk-high score? In this case, it might
be a taste for , French food, some experience at summer camp,
or perhaps a litigious nature. In the more important national
securit case, the next friend of the three terrorists seen in
Nairobi migt tn out to have been in Mganistan during
the same period as to of the others. Or maybe they call the
j same phone numbers or have a brother in the same jail.
That's asuming that the declassifed database in eMU's
computer is bursting with the same kind of rich details that
you came up with to describe your dinner gests. This brings
us to a central problem in the electronic hunt for terrorists:
if data and incomplete fles. It shouldnt come as any sur
prise that we know our friends far better than we know our
enemies.
I R R 0 R | S I !49
Intcigcncc sciccs arc ohcn hummoxcd by cvcn thc
most basic piccc otdata in a

pcrsons hc. his or hcr namc.

Jhisisonc crucia arcawhcrcourcuturadivcrsiqdchcs thc
sortingandcountingmagicotthccomputcr.|ackHcrmanscn
knows this a too wc. Hc's bccnworking on thc ccctronic
rccognitionotnamcssincc1984, whcnhcgothisdoctoratcin
computationa inguistics trom Gcorgctown \nivcrsiq. Jhc
\. S. StatcOcpartmcntcacdonhimbackthcntohcphgurc
outwhicb ncs bcongcd towhich pcopc. It sccmcd ikc a
simpccnoughtask. igurcoutthcviations,tromcuturcto
cuurc, on thc spcingotanamc ikc Scan, Mohammcd, or
Chang, and stickthcmintoacomputcr. Jhcywantcd somc
inguisticDiry dustsprinkcdonthcirprobcm, hcsays. ut
Hcrmanscnkncwthatthcgobaintcrprctationotnamcswas
cndcssy compcx. Jbat Haj" in an Arab namc! Jhat j ust
mcans hc's madc thc pigrimagc to Mccca, but itwi show
up as aast namc insomc databascs. P Changwi appcarin
rcnd asJchang, or maybcJchung, and thc Gcrmans and
Russians wi havc dihcrcnt tcs on it. Jhc Chincsc aonc
havcttdihcrcntspcIingslorsamabinLadcn.
Hcrmanscn buit a namc-idcnti|ing company, Lan-
guagcAnaysisSystcms LS) . Its immcnsc mosaicotnamcs,
as thcyrc organizcdandspccdtromonc cuturc to anothcr,
cmbodics thcaborotanthropoogistsandinguists, notcom-
putcr scicntists. utthatcxpcrtiscgctspuggcdinto comput-
crs. In spring 2006, Hermanscn sod LS to IM. Now it
works coscy with |ch|onas's idcntity dctcction unit. Oc-
spitcprogrcss, Hcrmanscnsays, untanginggobanamcswi
continuc to contound us torgcncrations. Nygrandchidrcn
coudbcworkingonthis.
Jhis docsnt mcan that tcchniqucs likc thc Ncxt ricnd
ana|ysis wont bc uscm insidc thc NSA. ut thosc mutidis-
I5 T H N U M 8 A T |
ciplinary teams Schack talks about will need lots of guidance
from the intelligence ofcer. Hopeflly, that liberal arts grad
masters a foreign language or two. To understand te cultural
biases in selecting certain data, a strong dose of anthropology
cant hurt.
In the meantime, many tools and technologies that are
being honed for national security may fnd receptive. markets
doser to home. It makes sense, doesnt it? The intelligence
agencies may have spott data in their foreign fles, with all
sorts of tanged and duplicate names. The fles that we in
habit, by contrast, are brimming with usefl and intelligible
data. Our records at work, for example, have dear names and
schedules, and everone works on the same e-mail system.
Consider how Next Friend analysis could come in handy.
Say a colleague leaves ' a j ob at your company. Wo's the per
son most likely to be afected by his departure? Will that per
son be te next to jump ship? Managers c intervene. On
a darker note, what if a colleague is caught selling confden
tial information? Could a Next Friend analysis point to oth
ers who should be monitored? Scary perhaps, but look at the
bright side: once the Numerati master these techniques on us,
maybe they can use them to catch terrorists.
BACK IN LAS VEGAS , I try that same quip on Jef Jonas. He
doen't fnd even a hint of humor in it. The way he sees ' it,
the technology to monitor us, and to predict our behavior,
will continue to march ahead endlessly. "Everybody is try
ing to compete," he says, "whether it's governments compet
ing against each other" companies competing against each
other, or governments competing against [terrorist] threats.
Ad when you compete, you want to have .the best human
T 8 8 0 8 | 5 T !5!
rcsourccs, thcbcst minds, thcbcst toos, andthcbcst data.
You aways want morc dta, bcttcr toos, smartcr pcopc.
Hc cans Iorward. cn's that goingto cnd! Hc answcrs
his own qucstion. It's not, hc says. And thc machincs that
gathcrourdatawi continuc toproitcratc,withwirccssscn-
sos andcamcras toowingourmovcmcnts.Jhiscoudmcan
casino-stycsurvcilanccinmuchotthcrcstolthcword. I'm
minkng, man,whcn isthisgoingtosowdown!|on says.
Isthcrcanythrottingmcchanism!Voa,whoa,whoa|
Jhcmmttingmcchanismsthathc'stakngabout-ocks
andshicds to dctcndourprivacy-ohcn don'tappcar in thc
origina tcchnoogy. Jhcyrctackcdonatcr as mcs. yso!
Jhc naturc otinnovation is hrst to crcatc thc brcakthrough
scrvicc or product. Contro mcchanisms, ikc priva htcrs,
comc ahcrward. |onas himsct hc admits, was atc to grasp
thc impications othis own invcntions. Jhcrc hcwas, buid-

ng thc idcntitysystcms thatcoud bccomc piars otgoba

survciancc and, hcsays, Honcsty, tour orhvcycars ago, I
didntcvcnknowwhatthcwordprvac mcant|
Hcrc'sthcprimcdangcrhcsccs. Imagincthatgovcrnmcnt
datamncrssihthroughthc dctaisotourivcsbuttaitoun-
covcr tcrror ccs. Good chancc thcy ikcypush tor morc
data-makingthccascthatcocctingitisa mattcrotnationa
sccurity. Mishandcdormisundcrstood,thishuntthrcatcnsto
ransack our bcdrooms and mcdicinc cabincts, ripping away
what privacy wc sti hod on to. lt can impicatc innoccnt
pcopc-tascpositivcs indata-miningingo. Statistics, ahcr
aI,pointonytoprobabiitics, nottotruth.
Jhc damagc can sprcad cvcn mrthcr. Lct's saythat tcr-
ror scuths, whic taiing to hnd tcrrorists, comc across othcr
intcrcstingpattcms in our data. Maybc onc otus ooks ikc
a t chcat. Anothcr bcong to a intorma c-mai ncwork
I5 T M N U M 8 A T |
that incudcs pornographcrs. Vat thcn! Wi pri

a ad-
vocatcs and civi ibcrtarians darc to dctcnd suspcctcd pcdo-
phics! Orimaginc that your accountaut quicty runs an i-
cga sidc busincss a a bookc. Suddcny, says Oavid Lvans,
CLOotCairvoyanccLorp. , adataanaysiscompanyinitts-
burgh, you gct anaycd toranyothcrdatathatsupportthc
rcationship with thc bookic. Vcrc did that moncy comc
l
trom!crc thcrcwithdrawas incashtJhcscarc thc statistics
thatcoudbcuscdtocrcatcacascagainstyou.Jhis, says|o-
n, iswhywc nccd tcchnoogto protcct ouridc

titics and
poicics that satcguard ourrights. c'rc goingto nccdsomc
smart pcopc in poi, hc says. Vithout sound ovcrsight,
wc'rciabctogctthcworstotbothwords -asurvcianccso-
cictythatstitaistomakcussatc.

|onas says hc didn't undcrstand thcsc risks whcn hc was

buidingOR. Jhcn hc bcgan to scc how oncc thc intor-
mationaboutus in databascs is compicd, it coud bc uscd n
dihcrcntanddcviousways. Hccasitrcpurposing.Jhisatc
awakcninghas tumcd|ch|onas into a champion otprivacy.
Hc'sbuitastrongprivacy-protcctionsuppcmcnttorNOR.
c originaynamcditPP, a payon anonymity. low
thatit'sgonc corporatc, it'sbccn rcdubbcd IBM Anonymous
Kcsoution. It cncr_ts cach idcntiq into ong scrics otct-
tcrs and numbcrs known as onc-way hhcs. Govcrnmcnts
and companics can thcn scarch for conncctions -combing
through thc passcngcr ist ota cruisc ship, ooking lor thc
hashcs otsuspcctcdtcrrorists.Jhissystcm rcduccs thcriskot
data cak. Morc important, no onc sccs thc namcs
_
nti a
match appcs and thc

company gcts a to

ma| rcqucst to rc-

vcthcidcntitics.Wit

|onas'ssystcm,ourmostscnsitivcdata
is cxposcd, butnotattachcdtoapcrson's idcntiq. Butcvcnas
somc otthc Numcrati comc up with schcmcs to protcct us,
T 8 R 0 S | $ T !53
omctare taCn_aead 1n te datahunt Otte next woube
bOmbcts. The bOubd tO !ctn Ot atu B te process,
more. tan most of u a read to shae. ` tecnologists
ha better spend a ttcmOtc Umc Um_abOUtwa w're
ceatn
g
," Jona q.
C H A P T E R 6
Patient
I REMEMBER tngmymothcr, in hcr astycar, to thc doc-
tor. Oncotus hadto accompanyhcr,towritcdownthc ncw
dosagcsotthccightornincmcdicincsshcwastaking.Shcwas
traiandabittorgctm, andmuchtoobusytakingcarcothcr
bind p;-ycar-od husband to thinkmuchabouthcrscIL Hcr
doctorkcdqucstions. Oocsthatburt!c, ycs. Andthat!
Ur. Ycs,alittc. Hcscribbcdthcschanswcrsinhispad.
`7rcyouhavingtroubcsccping!hcaskcd.
o. Shcwaspcascdtoprovidcadchnitivcanswcr.
Ijumpcd in. Mom,wcrcntyou up makingcocoain mc
middc olthc night! c, shc aowcd, somc nights wcrc
bcttcr than othcrs. Jhc doctor kcpt scribbing. I was arcady
rcscarchingthisbook, andIrcmcmbcrwondcring,atkind
otdataisthis!
Miscrabc data, is Lric Oishms answcr. rom his rc-
scarchabat!ntc,justoutsidcPortand, Orcgon, Oishmanis
workingtcvcrishy to rcpaccthctog, Iorgctmncss, andwish-
m thinking othuman mcmorywith minutc-by-minutc up-
datcspouringintromccctronicscnsors.Jhis(o-ycar-odan-
thropoogisthas abroadtacc,withabu

rotdarkhairontop
P A T | N T !55
and a smic strctching across thcbottom. Hc's an cvangcist
tor a ncw approach to hcath carc bccausc hc sccs thc status
quo as untcnabc. Hiswords spi out in torrcnts. "I took an
unpaidcavc to go dcawimmywitc's grandmothcr,who tc
and dicd trom thc ta, hc tcs mc, as hvc mcmbcrs othis
tcam and I chowon Chincsc takcout in a contcrcncc room.
`Actuay, shc dicd trom horrcndous mcdica crrors that oc-
currcd,hcsays."Jhcnmygrandtathcrtc.Hcdidntdic,but
wcputhim into anursinghomcinNorth Caroina. I'm not
tryingto bccgoccntric, butI'maword-known cxpcrtinthis
hcd,andIcoudn'tstopthistromhappcning. IworkatIntc,
mc a dcccntiving, I knowthctcchnoog, I kowcvcry
CEO inthisindustry, Icancal scnators onthcscissucs.And
yct pcopc in his own mmiy tc victim to thc vcry hcam-
Cc disastcrs hc works to prcvcnt. "I osc onc rcativc, and
anothcr gcts torccd to movc into a nursing homc, hc says.
"Vathappcns ityou don't spcakEngish, ityoudon'thavc
thckindotacccss thatsomconcikcmchas:It'stcrri|ing.
Hcthinks thatovcrthc ncxt gcncration, manyotuswi
surround ourscvcs with thc kinds olnctworkcd gadgcts hc
and his tcam arc buiding and tcsting. Jhcsc machincs wi
busythcmscvcswith tarmorc than mcasuring pcopc's pusc
andcountingmc pis thcytakc,whichiswhattoday's statc-
ot-mc-art monitors can do. Oishman sccs scnsors cvcntuay
rccording and building statistica modcs otamost cvcry as-
pcctotourbchavior.Jhcytrackourpathways inthchousc,
thc rhythm otourgait.Jhcy' diagram ourthrashingin bcd
andchart our nighty trips to thcbathroom-pcrhaps kccp-
ingtabsonhowmuchtimcwcspcndinthcrc. Somcotthcsc
gadgctswicvcnmcasurcthcpauscbctorcwc rccognizcata-
miiarvoicconthcphonc.

P surciancc socicq gonc hayirc! Pcrson priva in

I55 T H N U M 8 k T |
tattcrs!Tot at a, say Oishman. Hc prcdicts that many ot
us W dcpoy thcsc scnsors to spy on ourscvcs in ordcr to
ivc hcathicr, happicr, and ongcr ivcs. c' do it, m othcr
words, bccauscwcchoosc to. Ad wc' comc to carn about
this tcchnoog, insidious as mismaysound, bytry|ngitout
ontbcodpcopcwcovc-cspcciaythoscwhoivcf away.
Jakc it trom mc. P Oishman wk mc throug his a
g
, a
ycar ahcr thc dcaths otmyparcnts and onytcn mics trom
thcir homc), I ookatcach ncscnsorandthink, Boy, wc
coudhavc uscd onc otthosc.
Hcrc's an cxampc. At that chcckup I wcnt to with my
mothcr,thc doctortodhcrtowigh hcrscIcvcrydayMd to
kccp a daiy og otthcrcsuts.Jhiswasimportant, hc said,
bccausc adramaticrisc inhcrwcigtmightindicatcthathcr
wcakcninghcartwaslaiingtopump huids. Hcdidn'tgointo
thcdctais,butuntrcatcd,thoschuidswoudmhcrungsand
k hcr. Latcr that ahcrnoon, I bougtan ccctronic scac. I
ke, ccn as I showcd it to hcr, that this pan was mtay
hawcdtorat cast thrcc rcasons. Shc woudnt aways rcmcm-
bcr to wcigh hcrscL Shc woud hnd itvcryhard to tap thc
scacwithcnougauthoritytoactivtcit.Pdcvcnifshcsuc-
cccdcd,shc'dhavcatougtimcrcadingthcccctronicdispy,
whichccnIsquintcdto scc.!nshort,cvcnthougthcdoctor
nccdcdupdatcsandmymothcrwaswingto
_
nish thcm,
cruciascnsor and rccording componcnts-my mothcr's cycs
and hcr mcmory-wcrc not up tothc job. or my tathcr,
bind and incrcasingy immobic, daiy wcighing was ncary
hopccss.)
Oishmanguidcsmctowardasmaticdscctionotkitchcn
hooring. It's a protogc, which hc cs thc magic carpct.
Ondcr cach otthc bcigc tics arc wcbs otwcight scnsors. It
mymothcr'skitchcnhadbccncquippcdwith amagiccarpct,
P A T | N T I5
hcr cvcry visit to thc ktchcnwouId havc dispatchcd dctaiIs
onhcrchangingwcightaongawirccsspathtromthcticsto
hcrcomputcr,andtromthcrctothcdoctor's omcc. romthis
thrcadotdata, thcdoctorwouIdnotonIybcabIcto monitor
hcrwcight, butcquimportant,hccouIdrcccivcanacrtit
oncdayshctaiIcdtowakintothckitchcn.Jhat'satactworth
knowing.
IcanjustimagincmyparcntsIaughingatthccxtravagancc
ota magic carpct in thcir kitchcn. It sounds Iikc somcthing
hom thc|ctsons. Yct in thc past hat-ccntury, whiIc mcdica
costs havc s|rockctcd, cIcctronics havc gonc mc othcr way.
Backin thctp6os,whcnmyparcntswcrc raisingus, ourdoc-
tor paid m ordabc housc caIs itwc had thc snimcs-and
ASAspcntmiIIions otdoIIars torcomputcrsnomorcpow-
crmI than thc battcrcd ccI phonc in my pockct. Considcr
how dramaticaythings havc changcd. or thc pricc otonc
singIcbot
g
cotmymothcr'shcartmcdicinc-s&o-shccoud
havcbougt awircIcssncworktor thcir homc. BcIicc mc,
I cncouragcd hcr to. Jhcir dia|-up modcm drovc mc baq.)
Shc couId havc rcpaccd hcr bugg oId computcr tor thc
cost otonc MK. car thc cnd, my parcnts wcrc spcnding
aboutst&o adaytorhomcnursing.orjustatractionotthcir
monthynursingbi, thcycouIdhavc thrown cnough bIink-
ingscnsors andnctworkinggizmos into mcirhousc to rccord
and transmitcvcrystcp, bitc, brcath, word, and hcartbcat in
thcirPortandhousc.
Butwhowoudhavc noticcd mis rivcr otdata! Mypar-
cnts,ikcmanyotus,hadahardtimcgcttingrcsponscstoonc
otthcsimpIcstandmostdchnitivcacrtsimaginabIc. aphonc
caI to thc doctor's omcc. lt doctors arc so undcrstahcd that
thcy struggIc to rcturn phonc caIs, I ask Oishman, how arc
thcy ccr going to intcrprctda

apouringintrommagic O-
I58 T H N U M 8 A T |
pctsandcoundcss othcrdcviccs: "Jhat'sprcciscythcpointl
hcsays. Jhc doctors arc too busy.Jhc

gadgcts by thcmscvcs
don't hcp much. Itwi bc up to thc Numcrati to porc ovcr
thcpattcms otmovcmcntsand spccch and socia intcractions
and thcn hgrc out what mcy mcan. ny good mam can
sih through thcsc hoods olncary mcaningcss data t pro-
vidc doctors with spccihc alcrts. Jhis isnt casy. In onc rc-
gon study, pcopc'sbcdswcrcwircdto monitor thcir nighty
movcmcnts and wcight. nc woman, rcscarchcrs wcrc star-
tcdto scc, gaincdcigtpounds bctwccn bcdtimc andbrcak-
tast.Pdangcrousaccumuationothuids!Jimcto caanam-
buancc! o. Hcrlittcdoghadjumpcd onthc bcdandscpt
withhcr. Cuingthcpugsandcorgisfromthcdatawibcup
tothclumcrati.
!vcn thc simpcst otthcsc algorithms must bc custom-
izcd. or somc invaids, lor cxampc, it's a rcd-ight acrt it
thcyrcoutofbcd.Maybcthcy'vcflcnorarctcctcringinthc
haway orhddingwiththcstovc. For hcalthicrpaticnts, it's
thcfaiurctocimboutotbcdatte usuatimcthatspcspo-
tcntialtroubc.
Jhisanysisisstiinitsintan.JhinkbacktothcIntcr-
nctinmcmid-tos.Pwclcarncdtoscndc-maisdcallup
cb pagcs,wcwcrccrcatingdata.u ittookatcwycarstor
data-crunching companics ikcJacoda, \mbria, and Googc
tocarnhowtoanaycourcCKandscarchqucricsandbog
posts, andbuidbusincsscsaroundthcm. Oishman's job now
istocnticcustouschisscnsors.nybyhookingusupcanhc
gcncratcthcstrcamsotdatamatthcNumcratitcaston.
Jhc gadgcts wont makc thcir way into many ot our
homcsuntithcypassimportanttsts.Jhcy mustbccasyto
usc and providc dcccnt scrvicc, whicaso protccting at cast
a bit otour priva Itthcsc machincs crcatc conmsion and
P A T | N T !59
hustrauon,thcywindupstackcdinacosct,gathcringdust,
IikcmatdigitascacIbougt.Adituscrshavcrcasontotcar
snooping, tmm markctcrs, scam artists, or insurancc com-
panics, mcy'II ikcy puI thc pug. Jhcsc arc mc chacngcs
ahcadtorthcccctronics andsohrccompanics, such as In-
tcI,Microsoh,andGoogc, thatarcrushinginto thc mcdica
busincss.
Oish
g
an sccsthismarch otmcdicamonitorsas incvita-
bc. Aging socictics around mc worId tacc cxpIoding hcam-
carccosts,cspcciaIyasthcjumbogcncrationbornahcrord
ar II starts rctiring in drovcs. It crcatcs a markct tor auto-
mation, which Oishmanspottcdongago. Hcworkcdto dc-
vcopmcscicnccinthc1990S aspartotastart-up hnanccdby
auI AUcn, thc cotoundcr otMicrosoh. But thc kcy to gct-
ting t
g
csc monitors into hundrcds otmiions othomcs was
to harncss thc powcr andrcach ota goba computing giant.
Hckockcdondoorsmroughoutthctcchwodd,mngthc
ccthathomccomputcrswoudbccomc,amongmanyothcr
things, homcnursingstations. Butthosc companics, hcsays,
hcttcd about sadding their youm brands wim gcriatrics.
Intchnrccntcd. Oishmanaunchcdthchomchcathdi-
visionwithj ustonccocagucin2001. JwoycarsIatcr,thcyis-
sucdaprcss rcIcasc aboutprcdictingAmcimcr's discasc.Jhc
pubic rcsponscwas immcnsc. Itas cd by pcopIcj ust Iikc
mc, Oishmansays,whowcrcavid tor tcchnoogthat coud
kccp aneye on their elderly pcnts. Sincc mcn, his division
hasopcncda rcscarch branch in Ircand and has carricd out
tcsts in morc than 1, 000 homcs in 20 countrics. Hc runs a
nation nonproht tor homc hcam cam, which invovcs 500
companicsandunivcrsitics
Jhis push to dccop ccctmnics isntjustamattcrotrc-
pacing doctors and nurses wim machines or using digital
!50 T H N U M 8 A T |
readings to supplement our faulty memories. Constant moni
toring is bound to change the ver nature of health care, een
tually giving each one of us the kinq of continuous health ur
veillance historically reserved for VIPs, such a vice presidents
with heart disease, billionaires, and astronauts. This change,
says Dishman, shifs the focus fom afer to before, from cri
sis response to prevention. If the Numerati get it right, they'll
note changes il our patterns of behavior long before we fal
ill. They'll know our tyica daily routines when in health.
Then, when they detect changes in our activities, they'll fgure
out what we're coming down wth and start treating our maa
dies before we get them-or at leat before we perceive them.
In many ways, these promises of preventive care echo oth
ers coming from genomics laboratories, another growing em
pire for the Numerati. In universities and pharmaceutical labs
around the world, computer scientists and computational
biologists are designing algorithms to sif through billions
of gene sequences, lookng for link beteen certain genetic
markers and diseases. The goa is to help us sidestep the dis
eases we're most likely to contract and to provide each one of
us wth a cabinet of personaized medicines. Each one should
include j ust the rigt dosage and the ideal mi of moleculs
for our bodies. Beteen tese to branches of research, ge
netic ad behaviora, we're being parsed, inside and out. Even
the language of the to felds is similar. In a nod to genet
icists, Dishmn and his team are working t catalog what
they call our "behaviora markers." The math is aso about
the same. Wether teyre scrutiizing our strands of DNA
or our nightly trips to the batroom, statisticians are search
ing for norms, correlations, and anomaies. Dishman pre
fers his behavioral approach, in part because the market's less
crowded. "There are a zillion people following biology," he
P A I | N I !5!
say, andtoo fe Iookingat bchavior. His gadgcts aIsohavc
an cdgc bccausc thcy C providc basic acrts hom day onc.
Jhctcchnoogy!ndicatingwhcthcr a pcrsongcts outotbcd,
tor cxampIc, isnt much morc compicatcd than thc scnsor
thatautomaticayopcnsasupcrmarkctdoor.Butthatnuggct
olintormation isvuabIc. Onccwcstarti
g
staIlingthcscscn-
sors, andmcccctronicscompanicsgctthcirtootinthcdoor,
thccxpcrtscanstartrchningthcanysistromsimpcacrtsto
sophisticatcdprcdictions-pcrhapsprcparingus lorthconsct
otarknson's discascorAzhcimcr's.
Standing on his magic carpct, Oishman shows mc j ust
howdccpy thc mcdicaI Numcrati may cvcntuay bcabc to
pccrinto ourIivcs simpIybyanaIyingourstcps as wc grab a
midnightsnackorwashthcdishcs.Hctakcsacoupcotquick
paccs across thc tics. Pvidco scrccn bchindhim dispay his
wcigt distribution wth a traiI otbIuc and rcd dots. ow
I'mputtingmorcprcssurconthistoot,hcsays,brcaking

into
an cxaggcratcd hobbIc. ItcantcII I'm Iimping.Jhatmigt
me thathc'shadataIIormaybcthathistocnaisnccdtobc
cut. Itsounds siy, but tccnai carc is somcthinggcrontoo-
gists kccp a cIosc c on. Lntrimmcd naiIs can signa othcr
pmbcms, homimmobiitytodcprcssionto thc onsctotAIz-
hcimcr's. And naiprobIcms can cad to ms, a cading haz-
ardtorthc cdcryandamajortocus for Oishmans tcam. Hc
says thatmsinthcLnitcd Statcscadto $100 biioninan-
nu mcdic ouuays.) Hc hops ohmc t|cs and tcls mc to
takc a turn. I stcp on.JhctUcsarcaituc squishy, morc ikc
cdboard than norma inocum. I wondcr it t
_
cy woud
havc absorbcdthcbrokcncggsandspicdcocoathatbccamc
so common in my parcnts' ktchcn. ) Jhc scrccn bchind mc
dispIays what Oishmancs mypostura sway. It ooks ikc
abuc Christmas trcc. I sccittitingto thc right and quicky
1b T H E N U M 8 A ' T |
make an adjustment. If! were one of the dders currendy test
ing the magic apet, the system woud record that Christ
mas tree pattern, establishing it as my "baseline sway." If the
pattern changed, Dishman say, it could mean muscle loss or
perhaps a side efect fom a medicine. "You start capturing
this data all the time, and you start to get some really nice
trending information," he says. "Basical y, every time Mom
walks, you want to compare it statisticaly to every other time
she's walked." He lf his voice a notch. "Wow, Dad!s stum
bling more, especially in the moring. Wy is that? Is it be
cause of a medication he took ovemigt that's not trailing of
in the morning? Or is it the onset of some cognitive disease?"
The mahine wont be able to answer those diagnostic
questions, at least not in te near fture. It will simply issue
alerts when it detects changes in patterns and perhaps urge
the user to schedule a medical appointment. It Wm be up to
doctors and nurses to follow up, fguring <ut why someone
is limping or swaying diferendy at the kitchen sink. But in
time, these sytems wilhave enough feedback fom thousads
. of users that the should be able to point people-either doc
tors or patients to the most probable cause. In this way, te
wlwork like the recommendation engines on NetHix or Am
azn. com, which point people toward books or movies that
are popular among customers wth similar patters. (Aaon
and NetHix, of course, don't alway get it rigt, and neither
W the anayis issuing fom the maic carpet. It will only
point caregivers toward statisticly probable causes.)
Dishmans team has instaled magic carpets in the homes
of people with neurologica disorders or a history of fling.
They're starting in the kitchen but would like to extend the
tiles into hallway, where they c capture more wg data.
There also trying out to other technologies, a amera that
P A T | N T !5J
montorstheentrebodyandac|p-onsensor, aboutan nch
wde,thatcapturesa||sortsodataaboutmovementandbody
t|t. Maybe, says Oshman, the magc carpet can report the
datarghtto theuserand act as ahtness coach. Hesaysthat
thet|es,work|ngwiththehomccomputer,w||beab|eto"|t-
era||y|eadyouthoughexercses."Adwh|ethsshappenng,
the machne-natura||y-s busyco||ectngeven more data.
Ithe userwearngone othose c|p-ons, itmghtcapture
heartrate andcustomzetheworkout, just|ike a StarMaster
at the gm. (I can't magne my own mother dongthat one
n her|astyears. Butperhaps somesprer eghty-someth|ngs
wou|dgvetago. )
Jhrty-our-year-o|d Mattha Fh|pose is one o the
quants n Inte|'s Seatt|e |abs. He and hs team pck apart
Oshman's data. I ca||hmup and askhowtheyusestatstcs
to nerourhea|th andbehavorromootsteps onaktchen
hoor. How ar are we rom mpromptu machne-|ed ca|s-
thencs: He |aughs. "Jhese too|s werent even round three
orIouryears@O,

hesays.Jo reachthekndsolsophstcated
ana|yses I'mtaIkngabout, th|| needtosttchtogether|ots
osma||erobservatons,eachwthtsownrangeolprobab|-
tes. Jhat's whaths team s workng on now. Start, or ex-
amp|e, wth atoothbrush. Inexperments, meInte| team has
wredthemwithradotags.Jhesesendana|erteachtmethe
toothbrush s moved. C Fh|pose's group ner that each
tmet'smoved, someone sbrushnghsteeth:Motnecessar-
|y. Someonemghtmove the toothbrushwhen c|eanng the
snk. So the statstcans create a chart otoothbrush move-
ment.Let'ssaytheysee|otsolactvtynthemornngandat
bedtme.Jogetherthosetwo perodsmghtrepresent90 per-
centotoothbrush movement. Fromthat, thcan ca|cu|ate
a90 percent probab|qthat toothbrush movement nvo|ves
164 T H E N U M 8 A I
tccth Ocanng. [bcy cOud tactOt n tmc Vatabcs, but thctc`s
mOtc than cnOu@ cOmQcXq acad, as wc` scc.) cXt mcy
l
mOVc tO thc btOOm and thc tcakcttc, and thcy ask thc samc
QucstODs. Jhc gOa s tO bud a statstca mOdc tOt cach O
us tbat w ntct ttOm a sctcs Ot ObsctVatOns what wc`tc mOst
kcy tO bc dOng.
hc tOOmbtush was casy Ot thc mOst Qatt, t stcks tO
Ony Onc ]Ob. but COndcr thc kcttc. at atc thc chanccs
that t`s bcng uscd tOr tca Naybc a QctsOn uscs t tO makc n-
stant sOuQ [whch s mOtc nutttOus than tca but dangctOusly
saty tOt QcOQc kc my mOthct) . Ow can thc ntc tcam
cOmc uQ wt a QtObabty Lnc way, Ot cOutsc, wOud bc tO
sutVcy thOusands Ot hOmcs and ask QcOQc what thcy dO Wtb
thct kcttcs. hats tOO much wOtk. hQOsc taVOts a smQct
aQQtOach.
LO tO LOOgc, hc say, and t_c `makn_ tca. Ow
many cD Qagcs dOcs t Ocatc I dO thc catch. Jt hnds
z6:,ooo.) hcn yOu dO anOthct scatch, but add thc wOtd
`kcttc,` hc says. [bs tmc t cOmcs uQ wtb zp, ;oo.)hat
gVcs sccntsts a tOugh OOndtOna mOdc. Itassumcs that Ot
thc ncdcnts assOcatcd wt maktng tca, a bt mOtc than
Onc Ot nnc nVOVcs kcttcs. Lkc sO many Ot thc statstca as-
sumQ
t
Ons, t statts as a ctudc cstmatc. but t`s a way tO QOQu-
atc a mOnsttOusy bg statstca tabc, Onc that cOmcs uQ wth
thc mOst m bcbaVOt tOt thOusands Ot sccnatOs. P mOtc
ObsctVatOns QOut n ttOm mOtc scnsOts, thc machnc tsct
C ad]ust and tchnc thc numbcts. bOOtsttaQQng s h-
QOsc`s wOtd tOt ths Vatcty Ot machnc catnng. hcsc knds
Ot mOdcs atc gOOd cnOu@ mat
t
hcy can statt bOOtsttaQQng
thcmscVcs, hc ays. P mcy dO, thcy cOmc uQ wth bcttct
and bcttct gucsscs abOut what wc`tc dOng cVcty mnutc Ot
thc day.
P k T | N T 165
n thcsc caty stagcs, hQOsc says, tbc ntc tca s bud-
ng statstca mOdcs atOund thtcc gtOuQs Ot ObsctVatOns:
mOtnng and bcdtmc ttuas, mOVcmcnt atOund thc hOusc,
and nutttOn. th thcsc mOdcs n hand, thcy can start
adaQtng thc samc statstca aQQtOachcs thc umctat usc tO
OOk tOt cOttcatOns amOng shOQQcts. n ths casc, dO QcO-
Qc whO usc thc kctdc Ot thc mctOwavc OVcn at unchtmc
haVc hgh sOdum cVcs n thct bOOd OW abOut a QctsOn
whO tOtgcts tO btush hs tccth mOtc and mOtc, and waks wth
sOwct stcQs thtOugh thc hOusc hQOsc`s numbcts wOnt tc
thc stOry by thcmscVcs, at cast at ths stagc. but mcy shOud
QOnt dOctOts and nutscs tOwatd thc QcOQc mOst kcy tO
nccd hcQ.
N ow, PI CTURE an cdcty cOuQc. Jhc husband sQcaKs. Jhc
wtc says, at c tcQcats. hc st CaD makc t Out. hc
ctOsscs thc tOOm, tutns an cat tOwatd hm, and what shc h-
nay hcats s ths: LO gct yOut cats chcckcd. O shc dOcs.
Pnd t tutns Out that hct hcatng snt thc QtObcm. t`s that
hct husband s sQcakng mOtc sOhy-QcthaQs as a tcsut Ot
atKnsOns dscasc. [Pnd by thc tmc hs VOcc sOhcns tO ths
dcgtcc, thc dscasc s adVanccd.) bs s a kcy atca tOt tcscatch
bccausc sgns Ot atknsOns can shOw uQ n VOCc Qattctns and
bOdy mOVcmcnts as mucb as a dccadc bctOtc thc dscasc s
usuay dagnOscd. aty ttcatmcnt, n cXctcscs and mcd-
cncs, can dcay ts dcVcOQmcnt and csscn ts mQact. Lsh-
man tcs mc that sQccasts studyng thc aOtOt Ncbac |. OX
n hs Od N sbOws can dctcct thc Onsct Ot atknsOns ycats
bctOtc OX hmsc kncw hc had t. s gat gtOws shOttct as
thc dscasc ctccQs uQ On hm. s VOcc Qattctns changc.
Ncty tcw Ot us haVc bccn ctcatng wccky hat-hOut VdcOs
166 I H N U M E 8 k T |
over the past 20 years that record our changing speech pat
terns and gestures. But wit todays technology, we're in a po
sition to tur the cameras, aong with dozens of other sensors,
on ourselves. Ad some of us will start doing just that. Think
of a the people who pack their diets with cancer-fghting an
tioxidantS and those who try to stave of heart disease (and
risk pneumonia) by jogging relentlessly through the winter
slush. My of us are
'
more ma ready to take agressive ac
tion when it comes to lengthening our lives. So it's only natu-
.
|
ral that at least some of us will train a few sensors on ourselves
and send the feeds to Numerati-powered consultants. Anyone
ofering this tye of predictive seryice in te next few years, I .
should add, is likely to be a charatan. For most diseases, te
behavioral patterns are not yet established. But once analysts
build up a decade or two Odata, theyll see the onset ,of dis
ease early enough, hopeflly, to nip it in the bud.
This power to predict is sure to raise a host of social and
economic issues. Wil those of us who resist using sensors be
viewed as reckless, like those today wo go for years without
getting a medica checkup? Will goverments demand a cer
tain level of electronic reporting? Will insurance companies
treat unmonitored custOmers as high risk, denying them cov
erage or saddling them with the same extortionate rates they
levy today on teenage and drunk drivers? These are not issues
yet, because the science is at a early stage. But Dishman's team
and others around the world are mang progress every day.
For now; some of their most usefl work is focused on
helping people already struggling with diseases such a Par
kinson's. In these cases, Dishman says, a stream of data can
help doctors refne medications. The status quo in many hos
pitas is to check patients once a year for 15 minutes to a half
hour and to give them prescriptions based on data gathered in
P A T | N T 167
thatbrictpcriod. Jhis rcgimcn is cspcciyil suitcd to ar-
knson`s, whosc symptoms huctuatc wdy cvcn ovcr thc
coursc otasingcday. It's aoncc-in-a-ycar shot in thc dark,
Oishman says. Jhink about it. You drivc thcrc, hnd apark-
ing spacc. Your bood prcssurc is probaby throug thc root.
Jhcnyougo into thisvcryunnaturascttingwhcrc thcygivc
youascricsotdiagnostictcsts.Andthcnastypart otitis that
ityourc having a particuary bad day, thcyrc going to in-
crcasc your cvodopa, thc drug tor arkinson's, which has a
bunchotsidcchccts.
Incinicatrias,Intcisinstinghvcarkinson's tcsts in
thchomcsotpcopcwiththcdiscasc. Somc otthcsc tcsts arc
tamiiarto paticnts. n onc thcyprcsstwopiano-t_ckcysas
quicky as possibc. Anothcr has thcm pacing tiny rcd and
grccn pcgs into what must bcmaddcningysma| hocs. Jra-
ditionay, anurscwithastopwatch mcasurcsthctimcittakcs
thcir trcmbing hngcrs to hnish thc job. Jhc Intc vcrsion
docs this ccctronicaIy and cvcn notcs thc pattcrns madc as
thc uscr drags thcpcgacross thc surtacc otthc boxinscarch
otthc hoc. Anothcr dcicc,whichooks ikc awatch, mcas-
urcs thc sccond-by-sccond shing otthc arm. In this cary
stagc, Intc is simpy gathcring thc data. But thc ncxt phasc,
saysOishman,wibcto coscthcoop,givingthcdatatoa

octorwho canprcscribc mcdicinc onaday-to-daybasis. Hc

prcdicts thatintimc, computcrswicstabishbchavioraIpat-
tcrns and makc thc rccommcndcd prcscriptions, hrst in thc
torm otsuggcstions to thc doctor and cvcntuay dirccty to
thcpaticnt.
NhicOishman's gadgctsmcasurcourbchaviortromout-
sidc our bodics, othcr rcscarchcrs arc busy dcvcoping scn-
sors to rcport on thc changing conditions insidc. Jcams ot
rcscarchcrs at thc Koch Canccr Institutc at MIJ arc arcady
!58 T H N U M 8 k T |
testing implantable nanosensors in mice. These are built on
a scae so infnitesimal tat it's hard to imagine. One build
ing block of these sensors, a cone-shaped grouping of mole
cules caled a carbon nanotube, is a small ompared to a soc
cer ball as that ball is to the earth. Tyler Jacks, director of the
Koch Institute, says these sensors can detect chemicals in the
blood that indicate the growh of a tumor. This technolog,
potentially, would mean that cancer survivors would not have
to wait nerously for their annual checkups to see if the cancer
had metastasized (ofen to an untreatable stage) . Instead they'd
receive radio alerts immediately, perhaps straight to their cell
phones. Doctors could then attack the nascent tumor. Eventu
alJacks envisions placing a host of microscopic sensors into
a us, with tools to measure all knds of conditions and alert
us to trouble down the road. For these to work, the Numerati
wll have to develop statistica norms for hundreds of our bio
logical patterns, fm sodium and sugar levels and blood cell
counts to the manufacture of alsorts of proteins; These will be
our baselines, just like my tilting Christmas tree as I stood on
the magic carpet. Developing te most precie models W be
especially important as doctors embark on the next step: au
tomatic treatment. "The neXt generation of embedded medi
c gizmos," Jacks says, "will kow what therapy you need and
W deliver it." Included in this micromedical cabinet, he pre
dicts, will be a apothecar of so-called smart bombs, nanopar
tices that can be dispatched for precision work, such as attack
ing cancer cells. It sounds promising, but a you might expect,
these new sensors and medications will have to wind their way
through years of development, trias, and regulatory approvals
before they work their magic inside us. Some animals, though,
dont have to wait neary so long.
P k T | N T !59
THEY SAY it'snoninvasivc. utI'dtcclinvadcd, Oan^ndrc-
scn tclls mc, "itsomconc stucka tool kit into mystomacb.
Hc points to a bigrust-colorcdstccr namcd Norman, who's
wcaringwhat looks likc awhitc plasticrisbcchalway down
his lch hank. Jhis is actualy a door, a hstu
|
a, which opcns
intothcsccondothistourstomachs.Itwassurgicayattachcd
whcnNorman cmbarkcdonlitc as abcc|, thrcc-qutcr-ton
lab rat on this rcscarch tarm at Kansas Statc \nivcrsity. is-
tulatcd cows arc common in cattlc country, whcrc hrmcrs
andrcscarchcrslikctokccpancycondigcstivcworkings. ut
whatpasscsthroughNorman'sdoorismostunusua.
Somctimc latcr this spring morning, onc otAndrcscn's
grad studcnts wl climb into Norman's ring. Ic'll unscrcw
thc stccr's hatch and drop a black plastic packct, about thc
sizcottcnnis bal, intothcsloshinggallonsothat-digcstcda-
tata. Insidc thatpackctisacircuitboardriggcdwithalsorts
ottcchnolog. Ithasscnsorsto mcasurc thc tcmpcraturc and
baromctricprcssurcinsidcthcanimal.Ithasa globalposition-
ingunittotrackNorman'sstcpsinthcunlikclycvcnthcbolts
homthis smlcorralandstros downthchillthrougcam-
pustothcshadysuburbanstrcctsotManhattan, Kansas. Nor-
manstoolkitaso includcsawirclcsstransmittcrwithasmall
antcnna and a mcmorychip big cnough to log thc animal's
movcmcnts and bodilymnctions. Muchotthis tcchnologis
aworkinprogrcss. ut onc day, whcnorman wandcrs to
the trough, the data wil hy trom his stomach to a wirclcss
rcccivcr, which will scnd it zipping straigt into Andrcscn's
computcr.
OanAndrcscn, who tcachcs computcr scicncc at Knsas
Statc, grcw up on a catuc ranch in castcrn Ncbraska. About
adccadc ago,AndrcscnhadlunchwimStcvcNarrcn, a soh-
warccnginccringprotcssorwhosospcnthisboyboodaround
cows. arrcn had comc to Kansas hom thcSandiaNational
!0 T H N U M 8 k T |
Labs in New Mexico, where he'd been working on health
monitors that people could strap onto their arm Qr around
their chest. People, it turned out, weren't the greatest test sub
jects. The devices were much bulier back then. And humans
ofen used their advanced brans and opposable thumbs to re
move them. Wat Andresen and Warren needed was a duller
and more pliant population. They had their idea before they
even paid for their sandwiches.
Togeter they would build a computer netork as vast as
the Great Plains. It would stretch from the parched brow
pastures of Knsas and the feedlots in Nebraska and Texas to
slaughterhouses in Iowa and Minnesota. This netork would
not only track the health ad movements of Aerica cows,
but it would aso exist on or inside them, perhaps in pack
ets behind their heads or encased in pellets te cQuld swal- .
low. Warren and Andresen planed eventualy to put a wire
less computer on half a milion cows in Kansas-a state where
the ] million cattle outnumber people by nearly three to one.
This would prduce untold mountains of cow data. Heart
beats, head bobs, munc-munch, a siesta under a shade tree, a
glug of water. Run tat strea of data 24/7 and multiply it by
a half-million, and it would create. perhaps te most tedious
realit show in the long history of agriculture. But the pat
terns in that data, analyed mathematically, could point to al
kinds of insights. Wo kew what tey migt fnd? Perhaps
theyd see fuctuations in cows' temperatures before the got
sick. Maybe theyd spot an epidemic working its way across
the state. The ke was this: instead of veterinarians checking
up on cows every few monts, computers would bcreporting
on them every single minute.
The to professors drew up a grant proposal and received
fnding fom the Nationa Science Foundation. Following the .
P A T | N T 171
tcttOtstattaOksOt2001, ntctcstntbcQtO]cOtgtcw. byttaOk-
ng cvcty anma ttOm bttb tO tbc saugbtctbOusc, and cVcn
tOOwng ts subscQucnt Qatts and byQtOduOts as tbcy Wcrc
ttansQOttcd andsOd, autbOttcs OOud tac a bg stcQ tOWatd
scOutng tbc natOns tOOd suQQy. n a scnsc, wtng tbc OOWs
WOud bcntO cQuQQng caObanma wtb atcOOtdngma-
Obnc, kc tbc baOk bOXcs atQancs Oatty. ta dnct n a tcs-
tautantanyWbctc n tbcWOtdbtntO anPmctOanstcaand
tc , tbctta OtntOtmatOnOOudbcQautbOtttcsttaOctbc
QtObcm nOt] ust tO a Octtan tcgOn Ot tccdOt, but OOnOcV-
aby tO a ndVdua OOW. bcy mgbt scc tbat On a Octtan
day, Wbc tbc OOwWasgtazngnaOcttanansas Qastutc, ts
Vta sgns abtuQUy Obangcd. bat knd Otdcta OOud hcQ
sOVctbc mytcty.

snt t sttangc, say tO Pndtcscn as Wc makc Out Way

baOkhOm Otmans OOtta, tbat wctcWOtkngtO mOntOttbc
hcatbOtcOW bctOrcWc gct atOundtO QcOQc
LOW dOnt Oatc muOb abOut QtVaOy, Pndtcscn says.
cs Wcang abtOWnOutbaOkbat tO kccQ tbc sun Odbs mt
mOc,Wbcbcsay butns casy. PdbcswcatngsOOks undct
hssandas, thcWaynOttbcm utOQcans dO. ttbcyOatc, bc
dd tb d

a s, Ont ctOn.
bcn agan, cVcn tOOWs kc Otman kncW and Oatcd
abOut QtVOy, WOud t bc uttctytOOsb Ottbcm tO saOthOc
a dOsc Ott tOt mcdOa mOntOtng LOnsdctyOutscL tthc
mcdcandustOamcuQWtbasytcmkcPndtcscns -Qtc-
sumaby Onc tbat ddnt nVOVc OamQng a hstua OntO yOur
stOmaC-WOud yOu sgn uQ bs s mc knd OtQucstOn
Wctc kcytO bctaOngas scnsOts andOOmQutcts andWtccss
nctwOtks grOW cct sttOngct and ObcaQct. Otgc abOut thc
tctOtthcbctd, tbcysay. c OanOtcatcaOustOmsctVOc] ust
tOtyOu-QtOVdcdyOutOtkOVctyOutdata.
172 T H N U M 8 k T |
Ptcady, autO nsutcts atc uQ tO sOmctbng Vcry smat.
n bttan, OwOb \nOn Odcts sQcOa tatcs tO dtVcts WhO
agtcc tO QaOc aDaOkbOXml OttcOOtdng nsttumcnts nsdc
tbct Oat. JhsWay, tbc OOm

any OanmOntOt dtVng bcbaV-

Ot and Odct mtmct dsOOunts tO dtVcts WbO KccQ tbc sQccd
dOWn and stay Ocat Obgb-tsK tOads and ncgbbOthOOds.
DOtbctwOtds,tbcnsutctsatcanayng nOt]usttbc dtVcts
QtOhcs OttcOOtds, but asO thctbcbaVOt.
Jbs atcadyhaQQcns n a tudmcntatyWayn hcath n-
sutanOc. omOkcts Ohcn Qay bgbct Qtcmums, tOt cXamQc.
ut magnc bOW muOb mOtc sOQbstOatcd tbs mOdc OOud
bcOOmc tWc Wcrc wtcdWtb scnsOts. cW nsutanOc mat-
Kcts OOud takc sbaQc, a Ottb

m tccdng On tbc huOtuatng

sgnas sttcamng n ttOm Out bOdcs. n tbs WOtd, buyn_
bcatbnsutanOcOOudstatttO cckctakngOutamOttgagc.
ctcs tbc ObOOc. OOK n a fd tatc, and thc OOmQany n-
sutcs yOu nOmattctWbat. but tOOsts a mnt. Ot OWct Qtc-
mums,yOumgbtOQttOtahOatngtatc,WtbQrcmumstbat
tscandtawtbyOurbcatbtsk.JbOscWbOQaytbcscnum-
bcts sbtcWdy COmc Out On tOQ n mcdOnc, tcQOatng tbct
s

OOcss nhnanOc.Jbcytc datamastcts.Jbc tcstOtus undct-

WtctbctWnnngs.
ca ]ustmagncangtyOangtbc bcQ ncWbcn scc
On an nsutanOc bu tbat my tatc cdgcd uQ a tcW dOats dc-
sQtctbcmQtcssVcdtOQ tnObOcstcrO. butyOutbOOd aOO-
bOWcntabOVcmctbtcsbOdsbtmcs, OOmcs aVOOc hOm a
dstantOOuntty ctutns adcatcat tO myatgumcnts mattcd
WncsQattOttbctcgmcn. . .
ctc sttngat atabc nPdtcscns OOmQutctab, WhOb
s ObOOK-a-bOOK W OOmQOncnts and OtOutty and bnK-
ng gbts. Pdrcscn, bsbatbangng bcbnd bm ttOmaOOQ
atOundbsncOk, s uQ attbcWbtcbOatd, dcsOtbnga t_c Ot
P k T | N T 173
OOWknOWnasadatkOuttct.JbcscatcasOOutgc.oOmcWbctc
aOng tbc nc-nO Onc knOWs cXaCty bOW Ot Wbcn-datK
Outtcts aQQcat tO baVc cXQctcnOcd sOmc sOtt Ot ttauma. P
a tcsut, tbctt mcat s busb nstcad Ottcd. t aQQcats tO bc
cmQtcdOttsbOOd.O mOtcJ-bOncs, QOttctbOusc stcaKs, Ot
tOQ-Ot-tbc-nc hcts mgnOns ttOm tbcsc bcats. bc sOc OQ-
tOn at tbc saugbtcrbOusc s tO gtnd datk Outtcts ntO ObcaQ
bambutgct. LaOb OnctcQIcscnts Ost mOncy.
OW cts magnc tbat a tcW ycats ttOm nOW, Pdtcscn,
atcn, and tbctt tcam baVc suCOcssmy sttObcd tOgctbct
tbctncwOtkOtCOWs.POcttannumbctOttbOscanmas, n-
cVtaby, WtutnOuttO bcdatkOuttcts. KcscatObctWhaVc
at tbct hngcttQs tbc ctmc tcOOtd Ot cVcty Onc Ot 1bcsc
OOW, caObWagOtts bcad, caOb snOOzc n tbc sbadc. Jbcy
bc abc tO tccd tbs data mtOugb tbct OOmQutcts and scatOb
tOt Qattctns. LO tbc datk Outtcts baVcanytbng n COmmOn
d tbcy sudct]Ots Ot gct tOO OOd On tbc tOad ttQ tO tbc
tccdOt Ld mcy sccQ css tban tbc Otbcts Ot cat at a ddct-
cnt tatc ts a gucssWtk at tbs QOnt. but Wbat tbcy ds-
OOVcrOOudcVcntuaycadtO ad]ustmcntsntbcWayOOWsatc
rascd OtttansQOttcd. ctbaQs Octtan QtaOtOcs bandcd dOWn
by gcnctatOns OtOOWbOys W baVc tO bc drOQQcd-and tc-
QaOcdbysOcnOc.
bat t tbc data sbOws tbat ttOm tbct catcst days as
OaVcs, datkOuttcts bcbaVcddctcnty KcscatObcts OOud tutn
tbs knOWcdgc nto a QtcdOtVc too. bs Woud gVc tbcm
a bcbaVOta QtOhc, ctObcd n matb, Ota datkOuttct. n tbc
samcWay, caOb OatOOud OOnOcVabybcsOOtcd On tbc kct-
bOOd mattWOudgtOWuQ to QtOduOcbadstcak.attbcn
Oud tanObcts Out tbct Osscs and scnd bgb-tsk OaVcs tO
bcsaugbtctcdtghtaWay
/
ouOb QucstOns atc at cast a tcW ycats aWay-at cast
I4 T H N U M 8 k T |
lor thc cows in Kansas. uiding a bovinc nctworkis an im-
mcnscy compicatcdundcning. Gctting a mc scnsors to
work in sync is a sog, and cad onc prcscnts its own cha-
cugcs.The hcartbcat,lorcxampc, ishardtodistinguishhom
thcsoundsolduidsandgascsgoingaboutthcirnoisybusincss
insidcthc

anima. Rdiosignasstruggc to cscapcthickws

olbccl Battcricswcardownanddic.Jhcnthcrcarcncwork-
ing conundrums. How do you updatc soharc on a thou-
sand hcad ofcattc, or protcct thcm-hcavcn torbid-hom
hackcrs!Sti,thoscarctcchnicissucs.an
)
olthcmrcscm-
bc tbc chcngcsthatcnginccrsmastcrcd in thc cc phonc
industryIf thc cconomic payohis big cnoug, thcywork
througthcm.
^nd whcnthcydo, thc locusWu incvitabymovc to
impanting thc dciccs in us. Govcrnmcuts ookng to cut
hcth-carc spcndingwi ccrtainy bc intcrcstcd. Ecctronics
companics, as ric Oishman wi attcst, vicw hcath survci-
ancc as a mouthwatcring mkct. Pd lor thc insurancc in-
dust, thc morc information tbcyhavc about us, thc bcttcr
tel bcabc to cacuatc riskand crcatca host olncwpcr-
sonaizcd scrviccs. Iut thosc groups togcthcr, and you havc
a migty coaition. o knows! Givcn thc potcntia hcam
bcnchts, manyolusmaywcchccrthcmon.
LODGED
'
SOMEWHERE onMicrosoh'smassivccomputcrsarc
ahostofc-maismymothcrscnttomyHotmai accountovcr
thc ycars. Shc avcragcd about thrcc awcck. P historian or a
socioogistcoudookmrougthcmandstudythcpattcrnsol
an^crican coupccary inthis ccntury marchingpurposc-
fl y into cxtrcmc od agc.Jhc c-mais rcport onJhursday
night dinncrs with thc grandchidrcn and dog waks in thc
P k T | N T 175
rain. Shcwritcs about hcr activitics on thc vcstry at durch
and about my tathcr's atcstcttcrs to thc cditor at thc Orr-
gonian, dcporing thc trcatmcnt otprisoncrs at Guantanamo
Bay. In a coupc otmc c-mais shcwritcsabouttakinga cab
toahcathccntcrinortandwhcrcshcandmytathcr partici-
patcdinastudyonagingandcognition, oras shcputitmat-
tcr-ot-tacdy, scniity
ow I hnd mysctat thc Orcgon Ccntcr tor{ing and
Jcchnoogy, or Orcatcch, a huking statc-ot-thc-art hcath
ccntcr on thc banks otthc Wiamcttc Kivcr. Insi

c, cgions
otortand's cdcrs abor on ong rows oltrcadmis. P catc
u mc spacious sunit obbyscs cxpcnsivc attcs. Outsidc, a
ski ih hoists doctors andpaticnts in agcaminggass pod to
a compcx othospitas at thc top ota hi. Jhis iswhcrc my
parcnts camc to cnd thcir brains to scicncc. But in thc m-
turc, Ircaizc,as Itakto rcscarchcrs, thccdcrycansavcthc
cab tarc.Withmc sprcad otscnsors, thccognitivcaboratory
movcs into our homcs, whcrc anaysts wi kccp tabs On thc
workingoIourbrainbytrackingthcpattcrnsotourdaiyac-
tivitics. cary cvcryming wc do-it studicd in mcticuous
dct-providcs a gimpsc insidc our hcad. I hcar this trom
rcscarchcrs constanty. cmcr thcyrc discussing thc chang-
ingpattcm otstcps on thcmagiccarpctorthcadhcrcncctoa
pharmaccutica rcgimcn, thcyadd, Jhis asogivcsusagood
cognitivcrcad. It'sl awo-tor-oncsac.Jcstanything, and
yougctbrainrcsutsasabonus. Inthist_cotanaysis,aong
stringotc-mais,thckndmymothcrscnttomc,woudq

a-
iqasLxhibitP.
How do anaysts corrcatc irrcguar tootstcps and t_os
WU dcmcntia!Jhc rcscarchstartsinthcaborato,withthc
scnsorsnowhcrcinsitc.Michaavc,aCzcch-bommathcma-
tician,cxpains how hc runs scniors through a scrics of drs
15 T H N U M 8 A T |
ovcrtimctotcstthcirmcmory. orcachpcrson, hc draws up
a modc otworking mcmory. Likcan actuariachart, itprc-
dictsthc surviv otcachpicccotintormation. Insomc, mc
incsarctairyhat.Jhcmcmoqshoding. Inothcrs, itcurvcs
sharpy. Ityouookat cachtorgottcn Iactas adcath, as avc
docs, som

otthcsc pcopc archostingm-bown cpidcmics.

c try to asscss thc probability that an itcm wi bc ost,
hc says. Is it a mnction ottimc or intcrvcning cvcnts! n
most cascs, hc says, it`s ncw cvcnts that push out mcmorics,
as itcach pcrson h a imitcd stor
_
gc spacc, what hc c
_
s
a mcmory buhc

. aturaIy, thc pcoplc to worry about arc

thoscwhoscbuhcrs arc shrinking. Onccavchas this mcm-
orydata,thcncxtstcpistostudythcrcstof thcscpcopc`sivcs
-thcirmousc dicks, word choicc, sccpingpattcrns-andto
draw corrcations with what`s happcning insidc thcir hcad.
Jhcworkhasbarcybcgun. butstudyingthcirwrittcnwords
isa naturapacctostart.
orccnturics, pcopchavc bccnscru

inizingcttcrstorin

sightsaboutthcirovcdoncs.cnhandwritingdctcrioratcd
andnonscquiturspoppcd

p,thcyhadrcasontoworry. Iccr-
tainy frcttcd as saw mymothcr`s c-mais grow shortcr and
css rcguar. Adwhcn bcgant

scc gosinmcssagcs trom

this tormcrcgasccrctary, Iwas aIarmcd. butthiswa atc in
thcproccss,onyaycarortwobctorcshcdicd. Coudarigor-
ous statistica analysis othcr ging pattcrns, scntcnccs, and
wordchoicchavc pointcdto probcmsycarsorcvcnadccadc
carlicr! In cascs otcary dctcction, doctors can quicky start
mcdicincsandthcrapicsto torcstaI orsowthc dctcrioration.
Oishman, mcanwhilc, is working on ; host ottcchnoogics
to hcp ^zhcimcr`s suhcrcrs copc. nc is a phonc prompt.
cnatricndortamiymcmbcrcas,thcpcrsonsphotoand
namcpopuponascrccu,aongwithsomcdctais,suchasthc
asttimcthatpcrsoncacd.
P k T | N T !
Wak ntO tbc mOdc bOusc n tbc LtOatcOb ab. ts
sttcWnWtb gadgcts tbattbcytc tcstngn tbc bOmcs OtsOOtcs
OtOttands cdcty n Onc OOmct s ascusOt-Wtcd bcd, kc
tbc Onc tbc ttc dOg]umQcd On. yngOn tbc hOOt s a Oanc
WtbabOXkcaQQcndagcattbc bOttOm. tsdcsgncdtO mcas-
utc bOW muOb tbc usct cans On t-sgnang tbc QOssbc
Wcakcnng Ot tbat QcrsOns cgs. Pmd tbcc gadgcts n tbc
mOdcbOuscatcwOOOmQutcts,WbOb tbnkOtas tbcbtan
and a scQatatc nctVc Ocntct. Lnc cOmQutct sts bddcn n a
OOsct. t QOks uQ a tbc Wtccss sgnas ttOm scnsOts atOun
g
tbc bOusc and tcays tbcm back t LrOatcOb. Jbc Otbct L
sts n Qan sgbt. ts Outhttcd Wtb a bOst Otgamcs, aOng
Wtb standatd WOrd QtOOcssng and c-ma QtOgtams. tVcty
ntctaOttOn Wtb tbc OOmQutct, cVcry kcysttOkc ad OOk Ot
tbcmOusc, scuds baOk dctas On OOgntVc ttcnds. bcscatOb-
cts atc st at tbc caty stagcs nOW, ttyng tO bud a bascnc
Ot caOb usct. butWtbn a OOuQc Otycats, says aVc, Wctc
gOngtO bc mcasurngtbc mOtOtsQccd, tbckcybOatdntctaO-
tOns, andtbc OOmQcXtyOttbcWOtdstbcygcnctatc.
Lnc mOdc tOt tbs anayss s a study Ottbc Wttngs Ot
tbc QtzcWnnng Dttsb nOVctst tts NurdOOb, WbO dcd Ot
Pzbcmcts dscasc n Iyyy. NurdOOb ch bcbnd dcOadcs
OtWtttcn manusOtQts, attcasutcttOVctOtOOgntVc tcscatOb-
cts, at \nVctsty LOcgc OndOn. Jbcy studcd bct WOtd
ObOOc at ddctcntQOnts n bctOngOatcctandtOundmatn
bct ast nOVc,Jackson' Dilemma, pubsbcd n Lyj, sbc uscd
a smQct and css VatcdVOOabuarytban n catct WOtks. n
taOt, tbcysaWtbatbcranguagctOOWcdaOutVc. tgtcWmOtc
OOmQcXtmm bcthtstnOVc, Und the Net, tO OncWtttcn at
tbc bcgbt Otbct Oztcct, The Sea, the Sea, bctOtc m ng Odat
tbc cnd. JbcsOatytbng |trOmmyQctsQcOtVc, atcast) stbat
Wtb adVanOcd statstOa anayss Otddctcnt Wttngs, trOm
bOg QOsts tO c-mas, tcscarObcts |Ot cVcn cmQOycts) may
I8 T H N U M 8 A I |
QOk uQ mc dOWnWatd ttcnd OtOut OOgntVc sk Ong bc-
tOtcWccVcn susQcOtt.
tOLsbmanstcamsscatObngtOtsmatCucsnsQccOb
andsOCa ntctaOtODs. n ]OO bOmcs n LtcgOn, tbcytc QcO-
ngtOgctbct mOdcs OtQcOQcs tcatOnsbQs. OW Ohcn dO
tbcymakcQbOncOas,andtO hOWmanyQcOQc OW Ohcn
dOttcndsVsttOtcaObQctsOn, tbcytctutnngtbsdatantO
a sOOtc, a sO-Oacd sOca bcatb ndcX. tQcOQcs ndcXcs
ta, ts an ndOatOn tbat sOmcmng bas Obagcd-QctbaQs
a dccQcnng Otdcmcnta. bcytc asO tcstng a sub]cOts tc-
sQOnscs tO tamat VOccs On tbc QbOnc. \suay, QcOQc tcO-
OgnzcVOCcs OtOOscttcnds andtamymcmbcts nstaDty. t
tbctcs acn_mcnngQauscbctOtc tbattcOOgntOn,tbcyWant
tO OaQtutc t. ctc OOkDg at mscOOnds Ot ddctcnOc,
bc says. Jbat mgbt bc an actt tbat tbctcs sOmc knd Ot
ttOubc.
bs anayss Can gct OOmQOatcd. Otutc yOutsc as
Onc OtLsbmans sub]cOts. YOutcWatObnga bakctba gamc
On N ts OVcttmc bctwccn Laas ad Sa PntOnO. Ony
atkct dtVcs tbc hme andstOucd.bcQbOnctngs andyOu
tcaObtOt t.

cO.
.
bats POWtzks sXtbtOu.cs sOtcamngatmctcL
LLL cOmcsyOutsstctsVOccttOmtbc QbOnc.
Os tbsyOusayabscnty, WatObngtbctcQay
N
'd'
"
c,yOuI tOt . . .
cnty Ottbngs bcsdcs tbc caty sgns Otdcmcnta c
ntcttctcWtb Out tbOugbt QtOOcsscs. NusO, angct, and sccQ-
ncss altbtOW us OhOut sttdc, as dO OOOktas. n tmc, bc-
baVOta sOcntsts W tO nOOtQOtatc tbcsc dsttaOtOns
DtO mct mOdcs. bc OnyWay tO dO t, as yOu mgbt baVc
gucsscd, s bycarnngcVcn mOtc abOut u.
P A T I E N T 179
Oishman is working

on onc gadgct that takcs this to an

cxtrcmc. t's a wcarablc dcvicc to hclp pcoplc dca wth hts
olhypcraggrcssivc angcr. Jhis invovcs a hcart monitor con-
ncctcdtoasoupcd-upccllphonc.Puscr, Oishmansays,starts
f
byhllingoutanclcctroniclormlistingthcpcoplc mostlikcy
- .
to strcss him out. His boss migt bc onc. Ncxt hc lists thc
placcsthatcauscstrcss. mightbcrclcdatthcpool,Oish-
man says, but morc strcsscd out t ntcl. Finally, thc uscr
makcs his clcctronic calcndar ava|lablc. y combining all ol
thiswiththclocationdatalromthccclphonc,thckcypicccs
arcinplacc.whcrcthcpcrsonis,whohc'swithandwhat hc's
up to. Soilthchcartstarts racing, Oishman says, thcsystcm
canlookatthc calcndarandsay, `hmy God, that's astrcss-
mmcctingbccauscKcvin'sinmcroom.Wc'vcgottogcthim
outolthcrcl Atthatpoin,thcphoncrings.Jhcuscranswcrs
andispromptcdbythccomputcr, accordingto thcmostdirc
sccnario, to lcavc thc room.Jhcn hc's cdthrough ascrics ol
qucstions. `rcyou clcndingyourjaw! itk. Yourhsts!
trccommcndstakingsomcslowbrcathsorgcttingadrinkol
coolwatcr.
For now, thc ntel tcam is trying out this tcchnology on
studcnts who don't havc hypcraggrcssivc disordcr. lt givcs
thcm cucs lor managing strcss. 'vc analycdyour cacndar,"
Oishmansaysinhismachincvoicc. `7ndsccyouhavcmcct-
ingscvcryhal-hour, backtoback,tor12 hours. Fivcolmosc
mcct|ngs arew|thpeopleyou'vc haggedasthcmoststressml,
includingyourbossandthisassholcatwork.Ooyouwantto
givcyoursclla brcak! \ltimatcly hcsays, this qc oldata,
lrom our schcdulcs to thc pcoplc most likcly to hll us with
ragc, shouldmcrgcwithourothcrhcathinlormation,incud-
ingourgcncticparticulars, thcmcdicationswc'rcon, andthc
lccdsstrcaminglromdozensolscnsors. Hcseeseachoncolus
evcntua|lybu|ld|ngwhathccallsadashboardtomanagcour
I60 T H N U M E R A T I
bcatb and Wcncss. Jbs W bc tbc COnttO Qanc tOt Out
Vcs bctc s amOst DOtbngabOutus tbat tbcsc dasbbOatds
Wt nOt bc cagct tO catn. Pd natutay tb nCOtQOtatc
a OttbctrcndsandmcdOansgbtsgatbctcdttOmtbc dasb-
bOatds OtcVctyOnc csc.
oObctcs a QucstOn. cts assumctbat sOmc tOtm OtLb-
maDsVsOntakcsbaQc, MdcaCbOncOtus buds atat mOtc
dctacdtcQOstOtytbanWe baVc nO

OtmcdCaandQctsOna
data.NOdOWcsbMcttWtbJbs COmcs uQ ncVctystudy
Wc dO, bcsays. OWdOyOubcQ an cdctWtbPzbcmcts,
WbOs nOt COmQutct aV, dcCdc WbO gcts mc data andWbO
dOcsnt ts a bugc dcsgn gtObcm. YOu gO ntO Onc hOusc,
and tbcy say, TyOnc Can baVc tbs data. YOu gO ntO an-
Otb0t, andtbcysay, `NysOnCbaVctbcdataOnhnaDOcs,my
daugbtctCanbaVc thcdataOn bcatb, and myOtbct sOnWbO
mQsscdatCaDtbaVcanydataabOutagng. LOmnguQ
WtbaWs and tcCbnOOgcs tO bcQ QcOQcWscymaagc tbc
QrVaOtmcdCatcCOtdss a CbacngccVctybt a dauntng
as QtcdCtDg Pzbcmcts Ot sbOtt-CtCutng a byQctaggtcs-
sVc ht.
P Lsbman gOcs On abOut QrVa, m QOndctng my
OWn mcdCa scOtct. O sbOud sbatc tbcm Wtb Jbcn
WOnct, mOrc tO tbc QOnt, bOWcagct a t catn abOut
tbcmmysctPtcscarCbadVaCcsntOQattcmsOtdscasc,bc-
baVOt, and gcnctCs, Wctc gOngtO bcbOmbatdcdWtbOads
OtstatstOa QtO]cOtOns abOut cVcty COnCcVabc maady. oay
yOucatntbatyOubaVc a20 QctCcnttskOtgOngbbdnOd
agcttOmmaOuatdcgcnctatOn.1OuCOWctmcOddsOrdc-
aytsOnsct,yOurcad,byatctDgyOutdct,QuttngsmOkng,
and takngsOmcQs. OyOuCbangcyOut tc tO tcsQOnd tO
tbattsk OWabOuta7 QctCcntCbanCc OtbaVnga sttOkcn
tbc ncXt tcnycats OWsctOusyWOudyOutakctbat at
P k T | N T 181
ilyourriskinsomcdiscascis 8 pcrccntandthcnationaavcr-
agc lor your agc group is 6 pcrccnt! s that worth payingat-
tcntion to!ur mcdica charts, covcrcd with numbcrs and
pmbabiitics,wistartto ookikcthcscorccardolaL Vc-
gas bookic.Wc'bcawashinthcoddsolourowndcmisc.
Hcrc'smyprcdiction.P thc anayis olourmcdica data
grows, ncw t_cs olconsutancics arcgoing to proccss thcsc
rcports lor us. Picturc a company, SparcMcJhcOctais. com.
Jhcy addup al olourrcports and givc us a itc prcscrip-
tion, a combination olmcdicincs, dictarytips, cvcn cxcrcisc
rcgimcns on thc magic carpct, a olthcm dcsigncd to kccp
variousscourgcsatbayloras ongaspossibc.Jhisproccss,ol
coursc, wi invovc sophisticatcd a|gorimms bascd on prob-
abiity, whicbwicrcatcoads olworklorthcNumcrati. ut
thcpointis that many olus, inanagc olcxpodingmcdica
dataandanaysis,maybchappytopaylorthcprivicgcolrc-
mning, to oncdcgrccoranothcr,inthcdark.
C H A P T E R 7
Lover
Mx WI FE S HOUTS ttOm dOWn n tbc OOmQutct tOOm. obc
says tbc Onnc datng stc s askng bct tO dcsOtbc tbc man
sbcsbOQngtOand. batdO WttcsbcasK.
)ust dcsOtbc mc, yc. mat tbc dnng tOOm tabc,
hngOuttbcsamcdatngtOtm OnmyaQtOQ.
bcatbctmuttctngbcOW. bbc nOtbaQQytbatmdtag-
gng bct ntO an cXQctmcnt tbat QtOmscs tO tcVca tbc agO-
tthms OtOVc. Want tO scc Wbctbct an Onnc datng sct-
VOc m OOKng ntO, Lbcmstty.OOm, W sh tbtOugb tbc
ansWcts and cssays Wc QtOVdc, tun tbcm tbtOugb tbct ana-
yss, andOhct caOb Otus tO tbc Otbct as a gOOd matOb. atct
bc takng tO tbc Kutgcts \nVctsty antbtOQOOgst WbO
dcVscdLbcmsttys matObmakngtOtmua, ccn sbct. obc
Was tbc OncWbO suggcstcd, n aQbOnc Oa, tbat myWtc and
trytbs tcst. agtccdand sttOng-atmcdmyWtc ntO]Onng
mc. c VOWcd, natutay, nOt tO rcsQOndtO anyOtOuttcOW
datcrs Ontbc sctVcc. c Wctc tcstng tbc agOttbms, nOt tbc
QcOQc. Ltantcd, tbctcs nOtbng sOcntbO abOut studyngOnc
OOuQc. Ot a knOW, Out mattagc s a ncat-mtaOuOus tt-
umQb agansttbc Odds.
| 0 V E 8 183
l cmbark on this rcscarch, l' admit, with pcnty ol
doubts. P individua's cmotions arc hard cnoug to dcci-
phcr, ct aonc prcdict. Wc'vc sccn in poitics how toug it
is to hgurc out what draws pcopc to onc party or anothcr.
Howmuchmorccompicatcdwiitbctomatchwopcopc,
cachoncascompcxasaunivcrsc!JhcNumcrati's approach
works bcst in arcaswhcrc scts olconsistcnt datarchcctlaith-
mywhatthcy'rcookinglor. urspcndingandcarningpat-
tcrns tc mcm about our risk as dcbtors. Jhat's casy. Supcr-
markct managcrs givcn a ist olpapaya ovcrs C bct that a
hcathysharcolthcmwircspondto adiscountonmangocs.
Picccolcakc. utwhatdatabcstdcscribcs us matcs! How
canyoumodcsomconcasaovcr!
l rcmcmbcr having dinncr a lcw ycars backwith lricnds
inPittsburgh.Jhchusbandwassayingthathiswilc's brothcr
rcaybcwitwhcnhcbrokcupwithhis girlricnd. Shcwas
un-bc-icv-abc," hc rccacd, shaking his hcad. Hc picd on
thc adjcctivcs. lncrcdibc, amazing. Ccary, thcrc was somc-
thing about thiswoman, somc piccc oldatathathcvicwcd
ashighydcsirabc, pcrhaps csscntia.Woudhcdarc sayitin
lrontolhis wilc, who was sitting right ncxt to him! l hnay
askcdhim.
Shchada grcat . . . " Hcpauscd to addcmphasis, and l
wasthinkingolathcpossibiitics. Pcrsonaity woudwork.
llhc said body," orworsc, ass," our lricndy dinncr was in
troubc.
|ob," hcsaid. Shcwasahigytraincdnurscwho coud
makc good moncy in any town in thc whoc countq. His
brothcr-in-aw, ilhchadknownwhatwasgoodlorhim,coud
havccnjoycdguarantccdincomcwhcrcvcrhcwcnt. lshoud
notc, justtopaccthc commcntin contcxt, thatthis lricnd's
wilchadosthcrjobaboutamonthcarlicr.)
184 T H E N U M E R A T I
lnthcory, hndingan oninc partncrlormylricndwoud
bcaciuch.|ustrankthcdatingprospcctsbyincomcorcrcdit
scorc, amost as il th wcrc appying lor a oan. Jhcn hc
coudstart tromthc top. ut l`m bctting tbis nursc hc ad-
mircd had ccrtain othcr quitics hc vaucd, pcrhaps oncs hc
woudn'tmcntioninlrontothiswitc.Maybchcbarcyrccog-
nizcdthcmhimscl.

Sohowdo scicntists brcakdownovcintopicccsthatcan

bc httcd into a statistica bicrarchy! Lovc has ong rcsistcd
such mcasurcmcnt, which is why it has stuck stubbomy to
thc rcam olpocts -and lrustratcd scicntists at cvcry stcp.
Shakcspcarc,nodoubt,undcrstooditlar bcttcrthancwon,
andwasoncolthc grcatcst cxpcrts othis day. Jhc chacugc
todayis to hndmodcrncxpcrts,whctbcrlromanthropoog,
ikc Hccn Fishcr, or psychoog, and to tcam thcm up with
today's Ncwtons. thc umcrati. Vhat thcy havc to do to-
gcthcr-andthisisthctric|part-Isdistiwhatm know
about human ovc andrcationships andhtitinto ascrics ol
agorithms. Somc think this is loy. ut thcsc oninc dating
sitcsprovidcabonanzaolrcationshipdata,morcthanShakc-
spcarc or cvcn Lr. Kinscy coudbavc imagincd. Jhc Numc-
ratiarcaboringinaboratoricsolovc.
Jo comparc thc od, intuitivc styc to thc scicntihc ap-
proach on thc wcbsitc, l scnd a c-mai to my lricnd who
manyycars ago, in Paso, Jcxas, sct mc up with my mturc
wilc.hich bits oldata, l askhim,cdhim tomakc this rcc
ommcndation! l gctbackarcsponscwithin minutcs.Jhc rc-
suting data, ilyou coud ca it that, isnt anythingthc most
gihcd O mc Numcrati coud mcasurc or modc. Hc writcs
thathccoudcommun|catcwcwitbbotholus, thatwchad
a simiarscnscothumor,andhclctancnormous amount
olpositivccncrg.Purc log, lromadata-miningpcrspcctivc.
L 0 V E R 185
Smawondcr,thcn,thatHccnishcrandhcrcocagucs ca
thcir scrvicc Chcmistry.com.Jhcyrctryingtouncovcrccrtain
data at our csscncc-pcrhaps thc quaitics that Shakcspcarc
d d "
,
th b d" d comparc to a summcr ay or aworm n c u -an
packcitinmatchmingagorithms.
sog through scorcs olqucstions on thc Chcmistry sitc,
whicworkingto qucamountinginsurrcctionlromdown-
stairs. Ccary, many arc dcsigncd to gaugc whcthcr 'm out-
going, advcnturcsomc, cautious, a stick|cr lor dctais. Somc,
though, archardcrtorcad. 'mshown aphoto olamanand
awomanhavingadrinkonatcrracc. rothcrandsistcr!Lov-
crs! Husband andwilc! gucss ovcrs, but it's hard to know
what that answcr says about mc.Jhcn 'm askcd to comparc
thccngtholmysccondandlourthhngcrs.Jhattooisamys-
tcry Jhc torm asks about rcationships that havc thrivcd.
dcscribcmywilc.inay,gctto thccssaywhcrc'maskcdto
dchnc mysct Jhis scicntihc systcm, 'm assuming, wi ana-
yc thcword sccction and thccngth and syntolmyscn-
tcnccs, and thcn usc thcm to pigconhoc mc onc typc ol
ovcroranothcr.MychoiccolwordsWmcvcnrcvcamyinncr
sccrcts,'vcbccn tod. ut lorthisto work, hgurcthc sys-
tcm has to scc thc lrcc-howing, uncditcd mc. So rcax and,
lor thcir computcr's bcncht, t_c copiousy about mysct
writcaboutaycarspcntongagoinSouthAcricaasancar
hcrmit. writc about this book, and about going to cohcc
shops and putting on noisc-canccing hcadphoncs and wit-
ing. goonandonwiththisstrcamolconsciousncss.Jhcn
hitthc scnd button. P lcw minutcs atcr, 'm appacd to scc
thisbamcr appcarvcrbatim onthcprohc, rightncxtto thc
bankspaccwhcrcmyphotowoudappcar.Jhiscssaywas no
quict ttc--ttc with a computcrl twas ad copy lor myscl
at docs that havc to do with data-crunching Numcrati!
186 T H E N U M E R A T I
Jhcyrc ony coaborators in this chort. Much oIit, at
cast at this stagc, invovcs scl-promotion. t's thc samc pro-
ccss wc go through whcn wc appy lor thc cass ol2OI at
Harvard ortryto and a six-hgurc consutingjob at McKin-
scyandCo.Wc putlorththcmosthattcringimagc-mucb
wchavcthroughouthistory.AndwcooklorthcNumcratito
hndusthcrightmatch. utwhatitwc'rcbothying!
Jhat's thc riskwc tc. Now thatwc'rc advcrtising our-
scvcs, manyoIusmaychoosctoittcrourprohcswithittc
whitcicsanddcawiththcconscqucnccsatcr.Watcounts,
as anyadvcrtiscrwiattcst,arcrcsuts. Lookatmypossibii-
tics. havc a t picturc otmysclthat might givc a

good
bouncc to myprohc on Chcmstq.com. f Photoshoppcd
away that sma hn-dc-sicc zit on my nosc, ightcncd thc
bags undcr my cycs, and addcd $]O,OOO to my rcportcd in-
comc, whoknowswhatthcyoumm, wcathicr and not cn-
tircyhoncst)mccoudaccompishonthnsitc!
s this scicncc! Jhat dcpcnds. Considcr thc dt pro-
vidcto Chcmistry.com. startwithdcmographicdctais, and
hand mcm ovcr knowingy. havc a prctty good idcabow
thcybcintcrprctcd.Somcmayhattcrmc.thcrspartwith
inthcrcsigncdspiritolm discosurc, orabcicvabclacsim-
ic. oO mypmspcctivcdatcscarnmyagc,addrcss,prolcssion,
cducation, rcigion, cvcnmyincomcif chooscto providc it
which dont) .Jhcqucstionnaircasks il ! havc chidrcn liv-
ing at homc. t poitcy rclrains lrom asking ilmy chidrcn
and arc iving mcrc with mywlc.) t thcn asks about thc
womcn 'mwiing to considcr. Oo prclcr to ccudc ccr-
taincigionsorbodyt_cs! xcudcno onc, say.)Am in-
tcrcstcdin tcctotacrs, highschoo dropouts, orwomcn tacr
thanmc! (Ycs,wantmcmal.) Jhcsct_csolqucstionsdatc
lromthcinlanolcomputcrdating,inthct6os.Jhcydont
L 0 V E R 187
dcmand sophisticatcd anaysis or modcing. Jhcy ony ask
thc computcr to carryoutsimplc matching chorcs, to put us
intopics.Jhcscarcthcdctaismarkctcrsandpoiticianshavc
lcastcd on lor dccadcs. Many stI swcarby thcm. And thcsc
prclcrcnccsarcaccompanicdbywhatmanyconsidcrtobcthc
most important piccc otdata in thc cntirc proccss. thc pho-
tograph. withhodminc.Jhis mayraisc suspicions among
mydatingprospccts, but'mintcrcstcdinhowmcNumcrati
intcrprct my data. Jhcy'rc not anaying thc photos, though
pcrhapsthcywiinycarsto comc.)
Ncxtcomcsastrcamolinvountarydatathatwasunavai-
abc to thc punch-card pionccrs olcomputcr dating. Jhis is
our bchavior onthcChcmistry.comsitc.Aaystsatthccom-
pany, Iikc thcir co|cagucs throughout thc c-commcrcc uni-
vcrsc, rccord our cc cick. Jh c mcasurcwhich gcs
olpotcntia dacs appcar to |ntcrcst us thc most. Jhcn thcy
c showcasc morc olthc samc gcnrc to us and pcopc ikc
us) .Jhcycan brcakus down, catcgoryby catcgory, and ook
lortrcnds.JhisanaysisisncaryidcnticatothatdoncbyJa-
codas Oavc Morgan andothcronincadvcrtiscrs.Jhcydont
prctcnd toknowus inanydcpth. urthumpinghcarts and
quivcringgis rcmain amystcryto thcm.Jhcysimpycount
ourcicks,studyourbchavior,andthcnputusinbuckctsand
markcttous.

Finay, wc vcnturc into thc ncwcst rcam ol data. thc

survcy rcsponscs, wh|ch, whcn |ntcrprctcd by sc|cntists |ikc
HccnFishcr, crcatcourovcprohc.Jhis iswhcrcmost olus
osc contro olthc proccss. t's hard to hgurc out what knd
olsc|l-portrait wc'rc crcating bccausc manyolmc qucstions
sccmmystcrious. utwhowantstohnc-tuncatthisjuncturc,
yay: lwc'rcpaying moncytohndthcidca|datc,mostol
usatcast|nthcory) wantthcscrvicctoundcrstandusaswc
188 T H E N U M E R A T I
as t QOssby Oan. O Wc sOrutnzc tbc cngtb OtOut hngcts,
Quzzc OVcttbat QOtutc Ottbc smng OOuQc On tbc tcttaOc,
and mdgc Onyn Oascs Wbctc tbc QucstOn aQQcats tO QtObc
sOmcthngWcd tatbct nOt admt tO. |ttbcQucstOnnatc ays
ttaQs tOt Obd mOcstcts Ot QOmOgtaQbcts, haVcnt sQOttcd
tbcm. )Jbc dcan tbs QsyObOO_Oa scOtOn s tO adVanOc tat
bcyOnd dcmOgtaQbOs Md bcbaVOr, tO buttOW dccQ Wthn
us, and untaDgc Outbcattsttngs. Jbts s tO undctstand u at
Out mOst basOcVc -as bcngs cngagcd n matng ttuas Wc
sbatc Wtb Otbct anmas, 1tOm sbad tO KangatOO. baVc nO
dOubt mat tbs tcstWbcQ ccn sbct and bct tcam un-
dctstand at castsOmc Ottbc OraVngs and n

utOscs OQctatng
nsdcmc. butdO tbcscQtOhcstcayncus uQWtbmctgbt
QctsOn Lt dO thcy]ust gVc us sOmcmng tO abOut On
OuthtstdatcJhatsWbat m OuttO can.
oO asKccnshctWbcn OatOb uQWtbbctbyQbOnc.
sbct s DOman antbtOQOOgst ad a ncutOsOcntt. atCb-
maKng, sbc says, s mc mOstmQOttantg Wc Qay. tOm
a Lawntan QctsQcOtVc, uyOuhaVctOutObdtcn and haVc
nOnc, yOut gcncs Wn.Pd sbc tbnks that tbc tandatd data
uscd n matObmakng stcs, thc sbatcd bObbcs aud ntctcsts,
arc ncaty WOtthcss tOt hndng a sQOusc. YOu Oan haVc mc
samc ctbnO baOtOund, tbc samc sOOOcOOnOmO standng,
tbc samc gcncra cVc OtntcgcnOc, shc says. YOut OOKs,
tcgOn, QOtOs, and gOas C a bc agncd. YOu C Wak
ntO a tOOm m OtQcOQc kc that, andyOu dOnt ta n OVc
Wth tbcm. Oant tc yOu, sbc adds, bOW many tcatOn-
hQs Wakcd OutOtWhctctbc QctsOnWas QcthOt OnQaQcr.
obcs OOnhdcnt thatbctmcthOdW dcCOdc tbc human OVct
] ustth

WayOmct cdOtt Vc bccn tcngbct abOut mOdc us

as sbOQQcts, VOtcrs, and WOtKcts. ctc gOng tO gct tO thc
bOttOm Ottbs, ]ustKc bN andYahOO, sbc says. Jbc hu-
mananmadOcsbaVc Qattctns.
L 0 V E R 189
ishcr says that in mc atc 1990S shcbcgan ooking into
mc bioog otpcrsonaiq, thc gcncs, ncurotransmittcrs, and
spccihcay thc hormoncs. Shc did mis in part by studying
brain scans otromanticay obscsscd pcopc. Hcr thcory is
that lour dihcrcnt hormoncs -cstrogcn, tcstostcronc, dopa-
minc, and scrotonin-mod our pcrsonaitics ad that wc
ooktorpcopcwho compcmcnt us, whoprovidcwhatwc'rc

missing. Hcr qucstionnairc is dcsigncdto dividc us into tour

dihcrcntt_cs, cachoncwithadominanthormonc. Somc ot
thcqucstions tocus onthcmoodsandpcrsonaitics shcasso-
ciatcswithcachhormonc.Othcrs,suchasthcqucstionabout
thc cngth otourhngcrs,zcroin on thc chcmica| itsch K-
scarchshows, shcsays,thatthoscwithan indcxhngcrshortcr
than mc ringhngcr havc ohcn bccn cxposcd to morc tcstos-
tcroncwhicinthcwomb,whicthoscwimongcrindcxhn-
gcrswihavcmorccstrogcn.
ishcr outincs mc dihcrcnt hormoncs and pcrsonaitics
tormc.hoscw otsotdopaminc,shcsays,arcikcytobc
Lporcrs,optimistic risk takcrs. Scrotonin brccds Buid-
crs, who tcnd to bc cam and organizcd and workwc in
groups. Jhosc brimmingwith tcstostcronc shc cas Oircc-
tors.Jwo thirdsotthcmarcmcn.Jhcy'rc ana|ytica|, ogica,
and ohcn musica. Jhcy sound suspiciousy ikc umcrati
to mc.) In thc tourth group, thcir brains coursing with cs-
trogcn, arcthcNcgotiators.Jhcyrcvcrbaandintuitivc, and
havc good pcopc skis. You'd thinkthcy'd bc buit tor rca-
tionships. But somctimcs, Iishcrsays, thcy'rc sopiabc that
thcyturn into pacatcrs.Youdon'tknowwho thcya."
copccavcpcrsonitytootprintscvcryhcrc,ishcrtcs
mc, cvcn in thc scntcnccs thcywritc. Shcgivcsmc common
words uscd by cach group. Lporcrs usc words ikc ecite,
sirt dream, fre, andsearch, whicmorccommuniq-mindcd
cgotiatorstakaboutlink', bond, love, team, andparciate.
I90 I H E N M 8 A I |
udcts atc mOtc abc tO dsCuss m honor limit, and hon
est Pnd that Pumctat-ncstcd buCKct Ot tcCtOts hct
WOtds tOCus atgcy O mc QhyCa WOHd, Whctc aim, mea
Ure, ston
g
, hard, and :Mh baVc CuttcnCy. Ot sutQtsngy
thcy asO a Ot abOut `thnKng.
Ny Wtc ad , Wc catn atct n thc ahctnOOn, atc bOm |
tXQOtct-cgOtatOts. [acb QctsOn gIs a dOmnant and a
scCOndary abc.) hs sOunds QtOmsng cnOugh. `JOu tcnd
tO bc tOCuscd and tcsOutCcm, and yOu atc abc tO ] u_@c a Ot
Ot QrO]cCts at thc samc tmc, tcad. P a tcsut Wctc DOth
`sOmctmcs a WhtWnd Ot aCtVty. ut a Qatn_ Ot LQOt-
cts, shct WatDs mc, C bc ts} `LQOtcts by Oh n dbct-
cnt dtcCtOns thc mnutc mcy gct bOtcd, shc says. `hcy gct
ntO tcatOnshQs mst, WOndct hOW thcy _t thctc, and thcn
tO Wcasc thct Way Out.

LKay. waybc caCh Ot us tcay nccds a nO-nOnscnsc
udct tO kccQ Out hnaDCcs n Otdct, maQ Out VaCatOns, and
ma sutc thc Cats haVc mct atcst battcty Ot tabcs shOts. ct-
haQs that WOud mac scnsc. ut s ' t What Out hcats sc-
Ctcty aChc lOt Pshct statts Out, hct cVdcnCc s mOsty an-
cCdOta. ohc dcsCtbcs a CassC match. Ctutc a hatd-dtVng
man, a tbuOusy suCCcssm busncss cXcCutVc. c bangs
hcads, sasbcs thc QaytO, dtVcs WOUd-bc Chacngct ntO
ObVOn. hs guy gcts mngs dOnc. cs a tcCtOr. Ad
Chanccs arc, shct says, bc bas a smOOth-tang, QtObcm-
sOVng Wc, WhO Qucty QatChcs tOgcthct a thc hcnOshQs
hc shattcts. ohcs a cgOtatOt. JbOsc wO qcs, sbct says,
`atc Vcty sybOtC. hWl _taVtatc tOWatd caOh Othct.
Lcaty, thc scrVCc dOcsnt scnsc thc samc gtaVtatOna Qu
bcwccn my Wtc and mc. cn Og On tO thc Wcbstc, hnd
a tst Ot hVc WOmcn WhO baVc tbc tght ccs Ot sctOtOnn and
csttOgcn tOt QcOQO Kc mc. Ny Wttc snt Onc Ot Ucm. hctcs
L 0 V E R
191
an insurancc managcr lrom Wcst rangc-a Ncgotiator-
Lporcr-who says wca havc to augh cvcry day cspc-
ciay atourscvcs.ANcgotiator-uidcr,lromRochccPark,
orks in inlormation sccurity and ikcs broom dancing.
Jhcscandthrccothcrsarcthcmachinc'schoiccs.Manyothcr
subscribcrs, howcvcr, havc acccss to my prohc. And rcgard-
css olthc chcmistry, thcyrc lrccto cxprcss intcrcst.cthcr
thcy'rc uidcr-Oircctors homJ own orlcowxporcr-
cgotiatorslromJoms R|vcr, I carnthatcach onc isa"grcat
match. It gcts to thc point, as cick through my prospcc-
tivcmatchcs,whcrcthcwordgeat starts to sound prcttyor-
dinary.
at givcs!Jhcautomaticsystcm, in a| modcsty, rccog-
nizcs its imits and bowsto thc human brain. P thc scicncc
stands now, itcanmakcintroductorysuggcstions. ut lar bc
it lor a machinc, at cast at this point, to ovcrruc thcvasty
morcsophisticatcdhumanandnixapotcn
t
ia Romco. "Grcat
h ` matc , ttsays.
vcn itit docsn't darc sccond-gucss our judgmcnts, thc
Chcmistry computcr shoud bc abc to suggcst smartcr pair-
ings it sccs which combinations work. Fisbcr tcs mc shc
has datalrom t. 6miionpcopcwhotookthc tcst. Shc can
sccwhicht_csolpcopcarcmostikcytopursucwhichoth-
crs. Statisticsindicatc,asshcprcdictcd,thatNcgotiatorsgrav-
itatc toward Oircctors, andviccvcrsa xporcrs arc attractcd
toNegotiators. No-nonsense u|dcrs arc ohcn drawn to E-
porcrs, who hcp thcm igtcn up, Fishcr says. utj ust as
ohcn, uidcrs opt lor a css combustibc combination and
scck out thcirown kind. With thcscinsights, shc can rchnc
thc rccommcndations -and pcrhaps cad thc systcm to hcp
mchndmywilc.
lcoursc, thc pcrsonitygroup|ngs arc onyoncsmid-
192 T H E N U M E R A T I
gcn oldata in our dating probcs. tak to thc anaysts at
Match.com, mc parcnt compy ot Chcmistrycom. Lach
olus, thcysay, instinctivcysccks outamatchlromourown
cutura and cducationacvc.Wc canhnd this compatibiity
sipybyrcadingmcothcrpcrsonscssay. P ourcvcolcdu-
cationriscs,wc uscargcrwords dongcrscntcnccs. Oatcrs
naturytcndto sccctpcopc at mcirowncc. Oating scr-
viccscaccccratcthisproccssbyprcscntingushrsttopcopc
with simiarvocabuarics.Wc a|solocus onothcrsimiaritics,
no mattcr how siy. Jhc Match. com tcam has lound that il
thycanshowpcopcmatapotcntimatchhasthrccthings
in common, intcrcstsoars. "Wc C scndthcmc-maisayng
thatthcrc'ssomconccscinthcirtownwhoa|soikcsdogsand
whosclavoritccoorisrcd, says|imJabott,magcrolwcb
analyics. Hc spccuatcs that pcopc ook at thcsc as "a ituc
piccc olcoincidcncc, a itdc piccc ollatc. Rcgardcss olthc
causc, it's casy to hunt down mcsc simiaritics, usc thcm as
markcting toos, and thcn mcasurc which combinations ap-
pcamosttocachgcolcustomcr.Jhcdynamic,onccagain,
isncaryidcntictotargctingadvcrtising.Jhisprovcsto bca
much comhcrnichclorthcNumcratithanthctangcsolhu-
manattraction.
|ust onc dihcrcncc. nthiscasc, thc advcrtiscdgoodsarc
us. Wc wantto hnd, andwcwant to bclound.^d increas-
ing|y, wc'rcgoing to havc to hgurc outhow to usc mcsc sta-
tistic prohcs oloursclvcs to crcatc thc spark. P our mat-
ing rituas migratc lrom bs ad study has to ccctronic
ncworks, honing our agorimms may bccomc as important
a thc smics, sccnts, d sidcways ganccs that Shcspcarc
kcsoW
L 0 V E R , 193
AV8 YOU 8V8R nOtCcd tbc ttc buttOn On thc LOOgc
scatCh cngnc Cacd `m ccng Luc _c n a Qucty and
CCk that buttOn, and t dcVcts Ony a sngc cb Qagc, thc
Onc dccmcd mOst Kcy tO satsq yOut scatOh. `m ccng
uCj Cuts tO thc Chasc. 1ct t tcCcVcs amOst nO attcntOn
and aCCOunts tOt tat css than tQctCcnt Ot a scatChcs, aCCOtd-
n_ tO LOO_c. y s ths Ot startcts, Wc dOnt ttust thc
maChnc tO undctstad Out nsttuCtOns and dcVct thc t_t
cb Qagc IOO QctCcnt Ot mc tmc. Pnd Wbat t thctcs anOthct
cb Qagc thats ] ust a ttc bt bcttct hc tCt s, Wc Kc
ChOCcs. c !Kc tO btOWsc thtOu@ thc QOssbtcs. magnc
t Lhcmstty. COm, Kc thc matChmaKcrs tOt tutOQcan tOyaq
n Ccntutcs Qast, ncd us uQ Wtb ] ust Onc QOtcnta matc.
cd tcc Chcatcd. Pnd ] ust Kc thc ctcmay ttusttatcd cnty
N, Wcd natutay WOndct t mctc Wasnt sOmcOnc Wth :
cXtta QnCh Ot ths Ot dOsc Ot that. tVcn t sCcnCc-Whcthct a
scatCb cngnc Ot an Onnc datng stc-had thc smatts tO gVc
us cXaCty What Wctc OOKng tOt, Wc WOudnt tcay bc sOd
unt Wc saW thc Othct QOssbdtcs. [oOmc Ot us Kc tO KccQ
tcstng thc QOssbdtcs Ong Mct WcVc madc Out ChOCc. ) hc
Kcy tOt thcsc sctVCcs s tO gVc us a sccCtOn Ot gOOd ChOCcs.
Pnd thc k tOt us Lut suOCcss n thc nctWOtKcd WOtd,
Whcthct Wctc hOQng tO and a datc Ot a ]Ob, hngcs nOt ] ust
On Out abdty tO hnd, but asO tO QOQ uQ On mchtst Qagc Ot
Othct QcOQcs scatCh tcsuts. htOughOut hstOty, WcVc dOVc-
OQcd a sOtts Ot Way tO bc tOund. c Wcat Qctmmc, cWcty
tattOOs, Qat!Otm shOcs, a Ot thcm dcVctng a mcssagc Ot
WhO Wc atc. c Wttc uQ tsums, Wc bud bg and COmQcX
sOCa ncwOtKs. c CtaCK ]Okcs. cOmc Ot us Qay tO aQQcat n
tctctcnCc bOOKs, Kc W0: Wo. Pthc !umctat asscrt thct
Way, Wc wlbc OCatcd css by thc sghts and sOunds Wc QrO-
duCc, Ot cVcn Out hcndshQs, and mOtc by math-bascd QtO-
194 . T H E N U M E R A T I
gramschurningthroughourdata.Jhctrick, incrcasingywl
bctohcp thcmachincshndusandto uscmachincstoocatc
othcrs.
orcompanics,thisburningnccdtobctoundbspawcd
ancntircco

sutingindustryIt'scac

scarchcngincoptimi-
zation, orSLtorshort. Lct'ssayyouhavc abcd-and-brcak
mst in Jucson. Butwhcn potcntia customcrs t_c Jucson
Bcd Brcst into ascarHcnginc, yoursitc docsnt appcar
unti thc hhh pgc.Jhat spcs disastcr. otcntia customcrs
ncvcrhndyou. So yugo to consutants andyou pay thcm
to cnginccryourwcbsitc so that itshows up ncar mc top ot
thcist. JhcIntcrnctIS tccmingwithcompanicsohcringthis
scrvicc.)
Jo optimizc your pagc, th havc to undcrstand thc
scarchagorithm. Howdocsitdchncahigh-rankcdpagc! Isit
agcdoraotinks toothcrpagcs! Loadsottramc!Jhcprom-
incncc otccrtainwords Good consutants tcstthousands ot
combinationsand hgurc outwhat mcagorit

m is ooking
tor. Jhcnthcy wcakthcirWcbpagcs to satisqit. Lnginccrs
atthcscarchcngincs,mcauwhic,tinkcrwiththcirgorithms
toputthcscmanipuatorsinthcirpaccandtokccp thcmost
rccvntsitcsatthctopotthcirists.Jhcygcttccdbackoncv-
cry cc t's an ctcrna battc, not ony bctwccn thc scch
cngincsad thc csutants, butaso amongthcconsutants.
SomcotthcmgcGoogcbcttcrthanothcrs.
Jhis issomcthingwchumanshavc bccndoingsincc our
carIydays as bipcds. Gamingsytcms is ourspcciaq. c hg-
urc out how things work. Jhcn wc cacuatc thc ncccssary
stcpsso thatthworktorus.Jhisistrucwhcthcrwc

rcput-
tingtogcthcran invcsmcntporttoio orangingto wincm-
poycc otthc ycar.' Lach onc invovcs hguring out thc idca
rccipc-or agorithm-torthc intcndcd rcsut. Jhc dyamic
L 0 V E R
195
hasntchangcd. utthcscdays, morcolthc tricks invovcau-
tomaticsystcms.Jimewas, Iorcxampc, matbclorcappying
lor

jobs wcwoudmctcuousyay outourrcsumswimj ust

thcrigtlonts andonthcbcstwatcrmarkcdpapcr, to attract
thc attcntion olahuman rcsourccs managcr. Now, according
to Buiness wek, yq pcrccntol\. o. corporationsasklorccc-
tronicrcsumcs.Jhcyuscsoharcto sihthroughthcm,pick-
ingouta sccction olhnaists lorhumanmanagcrs to con-
sidcr. at docs thc soharc ooklor:Jhat'swhat wc havc
to hgurc out. Somc pick out ccrtain words -MBA, Har-
vard, Lcc, hucnt Mandarin. thcrs ook lor morc sophis-
ticatcd combinations. Pcntyolconsutantsarconctosc
us insidc tips. Jhc point is that whcnwcwant to bc lound,
whcthcrwc'rcookinglormoncyorovc,wcmustmakc our-
scvcs intcigibc to machincs. Wc nccdgoodpagc rank. Wc
musthtourscvcsto gorithms.
REACH INTO YOUR pockctorpursc,andpu outthatbink-
ing cc phonc. Havc a good ook at it. n thc past dccadc,
wc'vc comc to takc thcsc miracu|ous pockct computcrs lor
grantcd. utthcy'rcbristingwithradiosignas,scnsors, com-
putingpowcr, and storagc. n ots olways, thcy'rc simiar to
that tcnnis-ba|-sizcd packct olhardwarc bobbing around in
thcstomacholNorman, mchstuatcdcow.Nowimagincwc
wantcdtocmuatcNorman.atilwcuscdourphoncs,m
Normans in-stomach computcr, to rccord our movcmcnts
and our intcractions, and mcn cnistcd somc Numcrati to
crcatc a mathcmatica prohc olcach olus! Coud wc thcn
pcrhapshnd othcrpcopcwithsimiarpattcrns! Coudthosc
pcopcbccomcourlricndsandaics-orovcrs!
Jhat'swhatNathanLagc thinks.P lcwycarsago, Eagc,
196 T H E N . U M E R A T I
then a Ph. D. student at MIT's Media Lab, tried an experi
ment. He distributed cell phones to IOO grad. students, one
quarter of them at MIT's Sloan School of Management, te
rest at the Media Lab. These phones, he informed the partici
pats, were equipped with sofare to record their movements
and interactions. Over te course of an entire school year, this
data would show the researchers not only where the students
went and how they communicated with each other, but also
who they circulated with, and een who tey were spending
the night with. This was a privac invasion huge enough to
agitate a congressional oversight committee. But all of Eagle's
subjects signed lengthy consent forms.
By the time I catch up to Eagle, he's living on the coast
of Knya, working on a education project. Our Ske con
nection fails, so we chat online. He tells me that he's watch
ing tur
t
les swimming in to lay their egg on the beach be
low, where theyre hard-pressed to protect them from local
poachers. "You c get six shillings for these eggs in town," he
writes. I nudge him toward faraway Cambridge, and he tells.
me about. his experiment. Over the school yea, he says, it be
came easy to see that te wO groups of subjects -the business
school students and the engineers -moved in diferent pat
terns. He could predict with greater than yOpercent certainty
which tye of student each one was. Wat's more, he could
look at diferent tyes Otrelationships ad fgure out which
people were friends and which were mere acquaintances. If
they met at the water cooler on a Thursday aferoon, that
was one kind of relationship. If the were together at a bar
on Saturday night in downtown Boston, they were much
chummier.
Eagle began to build models of te individuals. He started
with basic patterns of cell phone use: whether the grad stu-
L 0 V E R 197
dcnts wcrc athomc orat
_
ork, itmcykcpt thcir phonc on
oroh Lach otthcscvariabcswas cacd an cigcnbchavior.
Jhcprcmeigen is amutipicrotan cstabishcdtrcndordi-
rcction.)Itwas

tocacuatcthcmcantorcachotthcscbc-
haviors.Jhcuscrs,whcnchartcd,tcintocustcrs.Jhat`show
Lagc distinguishcd busincss studcnts tromcnginccrs. L

cn
withinthosccustcrs, cach individuhadauniquccombina-
tion otbchavors. Somc scpt pastnoon on Saturdays. Somc
kcpt thcir phoncs oh Sunday morning church!) . Wcn
Lagc mappcd mcm in coorm charts, cach individua`s itc
lookcd as ordcry as thc gcomctric torms ota avajo rug.
Jhwcrc so rcguar, in mct, that hc coud prcdictwith mir
accuracywhat cach pcrson woud do nct. Hc coud prcdict
whcrc cach onc woud _, who thcywo
_
d cl, what timc
th woud tum in tor thc nigt, and whcthcr th woud
bomcrturningohthcccphoncwhcnthcydid.
Alkinds oforganizationsarchungrytorsuchdata. Mass
transit companics want to prcdict thc movcmcnts otcom-
mutcrs. Locaadvcrtiscrs, naturay, woudovctohitaphonc
uscrwith an ad tor a bar ora rcstaurant rigt as thrc gct-
ting rcady to carousc. ^d I don'thavc to tc you how usc-
mmcHomcandSccuriqOcpartmcntwoudhndthistrack-
ing data.
ButLagchasthcidcathatwcCputthisdatatousctor
ourscvcs. Hc wants to go into mc tricndship busincss. Imag-
inc, hc says, thatwc C switch onourtccphoncs to a pro-
miscuous sctting. Jhis mcanswc`rc opcn to chancc cncoun-
tcr. Ourphoncworksasabcacon,scndingoutourprohIcin
radiowavcs tothoscaround us. Inthccaryday,thisprohc
wi bcikc thccarydays otcomputcrdating. Itwi incudc
aIistotourintcrcsts. Swcdishmovics, say, orbiclc touring,
rcnchtood.Anditthoscwhoscpathswccrosssharcthcscot
198 T H N U M 8 k T |
these interests, our profle will pop up on their phones, and
we presumably won't mind . at al when one of them touches
our elbow and says, "I had a coq au vin to die for at tis lit
tle bistro . . . " In the workplace, a similar system could, aert
us to colleagues in the caeteria who have maste.red the Linux
operating system or are knee-deep in the genetics of droso- .
phila fies.
But take this a step frther. Our movements with a cell
phone can paint an in-depth profle for each of us, each one
endessly more detailed than those forms my wife and I flled
out for Chemistry. com. If we give them permission to examine
us the way Dan Andresen and his team study their cows, they
can scrutinize our movements ad social networks. They C
map the DNA of our' behavior. ywod we give anyone a
green light to do this? Imagine that they could use this data to
fnd other people whose profles match our own. Would the
become our next friends? The love of our life? That ocean of
mobile data may well be the net fontier for Helen Fisher
and the other matchmakers Otthe world.
'
Already, compaies are amassing loads of this data. Con
sider that cell phone I asked you to pull out of your pocket a
few minutes ago. Your phone carrier c detect that it's sitting
right there, unused. And the company has more than enough
information to draw powerfl conclusions about you and to
make predictions (most of them centered on the chances that
youll j ump to another carrier) . It's a potential gold mine of
pers'onal data. Phone companIes have a they need to track
our movements and our socia networks. They could ana
lye mc photos many of us send and the words of our text
messages. P we surf the Net and begin to use the phone for
e-commerce, they learn even more . .If they wanted to (and
were ready to fce a wave of lawsuits fom privacy advocates) ,
L 0 V E R !99
U COud bud cnttc busncsscs On ths tCh data. Lt Qct-
haQ at sOmc QOnt th COud QaCkagc and sc Out OWn data
t_t baCK tO us. hats Pathan tagcs dca. s sChcmc,
WhCh s Ony n ts ntnCy, s abOut cmQOWctng us usng
Out data tO maKc OutscVcs haQQct, tChct, and suttOundcd by
mOtc ttcnds -Ot QcthaQs ]ust tO KnOW OutscVcs bcttct.
THE EARLY RESULTS hOm Lhcmstty. COm Cast my matta_c
n an OmnOus _t. Pcthct Ot us QOQs uQ On mc Othcts
Lhcmst. COm tadat. Ln an OthctWtsc bt_t ounday mOtn-
ng, scc thc sctVCc s nng uQ my Wtc Wth a PcgOtatOt-
tcCtOt n hOscdac, PcW 1OtK. Lang hmsct ` NOtKtng
Lass ctO, hc Wttcs, ` stOQ tO smc thc tOscs tO hnd thc
bcauty that s n a Ol us tcgatdcss Othc sO thc tOscs Wctc
Qantcd n. cthaQs }hOsc WOtds tcsOnatc tOt my Wtc, a hOt-
tCututst. hc Chcmstty bctWccn thc twO, aCCOtdng tO Uc
COmQutct, asO bOdcs a tUc tOO Wc: `th thc sQOntancty
and CtcatVty Ot thc LQOtct and thc bcXbq and magna-
tOn Ot thc PcgOtatOt, yOutc bOth n stOtc tOt sOmc gtcat ad-
Vcntutcs and hcatty au_s tOgcthct. m Wng at ths QOnt
tO tcCOgnzc Otkng Lass ctO as a WOtthy tVa. ut Ksc-
dac' ts
4
omcs aWay, On thc f sdc Ot PcW 1OtK Lj [and
Wthn Whmng dstanc of |FKPtQOtt) . hats a sOg. LOOgc
tcs mc that mc dtVc COud taKc `uQ tO t hOut and o mn-
utcs n ttamC. s ths OgstCa nghtmatc, tOt a ts QOtcnta,
tcay Qtctctabc tO a COnncCtOn Wth an tXQOtct-cgOtatOt
namcd otcQhcn WhO Vcs n thc Vcty samc tOWn [and, as uCK
WOud haVc t, n mc samc hOusc)
tcChcCK my QtOhc tO scc t thctcs sOmc dcta thats KccQ-
ng us aQatt. Pnd thats Whcn scc t. Ncn hng Out thc
tOtm, had Catccssy mtcd my scarCh tO WOmcn yOungct
00 T H E N U M E R k T I
than my wilc. Siy mc. was boHing thc ony conncction
thatmattcrcdtome andpracticythmwingmywilcintothc
armsolmoreopcn-mindcdrivas. twasdataundcrmyown
controtht bctraycd mc.
prompty raisc my agc imit. Within hours, my wilc
chcck thc Chcmistry.com pagc, and thcrc a. Finay, it's
thcphoto-css Stcphcn lromMontcair, alcowEporcr-Nc-
gotiatorwooinghcrWUthcsamcgoo|cssayaboutwcaring
noisc-canccinghcadphoncsincals.Natur ythcscrviccdc-
carcs this matchgrcat.Ad ourEporcr-to-Lporcrcon-
ncctionbrimswithpromisc. You'd bothbchappyjcttingoh
to Paris orNcpalat a momcnt's noticc. Pd your ilc in thc
bcdroom is ikcyto bccxciting too. At this
P
oint, mywilc
dcsignatcs Stcphcn as sizzing-and thc rcst olmyrivasas
hzzing. Jhc gorithms havc compctcd thcir work. Jhc
suitorshavcbccnbanishcdtocrnardsvic, Rscdc, andbc-
yond.
ntruth, wc sct up somcthingOa larcc, and it'scasyto
augh about it. ut whcthcr ourhormoncs and thc cngth ol
our hngcrs had anying to do with it, thc scrvicc actualy
madc good on its most important chcngc. towcd us to
fnd cachothcr.Vhatwcmakotthcrip-roaringpossibiitis
ahcadisup tous.
CONCL US I ON
ONE SUMMER ong ago, Jcrry Jhcrncau is icing mc, hc
wcntto thc shorcs ola akc in northcmMinncsotato work
as a counscor in a summcr camp. Jhcrncau is a cadcr in
quantitativc bioogyatthcMayoCinic, andthis dctourlrom
mcdica data into thc lorcsts olhis youth takcs mc by sur-
prisc. nc olmygoasthatsummcr,"hcsays, was to carn
tbO namcolcvcrytrcc inthcwoods." tsccmcdikc asimpc
cnoughproposition.romwhathccoudscc,thcrcwcrcalcw
dozcn to carn. Hc continucs. camcd thc trccs, bc-
ganto scc morcandmorcolthcm. Prcttysoon, mycstimatc
ofthcwoodypants wcnt up tcnlod." Compcxityappcarcd
togrowwithhisknowcdgc.Nowhc sccs mcsamcphcnom-
cnonashcstudics1hchumanbody. Miions olprotcins, a
olthcm intcrrcatcd, swarm through our ccs ikc couds ol
gnats."Jhcmorchccarns,thcmorchcsecs.nJhcrncau
wcntbackhomcthatsummcr,hcstididn'tkowathctrccs
inthcnorthcrnwoodsolMinncsota.
JhcNumcratitoo arcgrappingwithtowcringcompcx-
ity. Jhcyrc ooking lor pattcrns in data that dcscribc somc-
ming most hopccssy compcx. human ilc and bchavior.
Jhc audaciq olthcir mission is amost maddcning. Jhcyrc
0 T H E N U M E R A T I
goingto hgurcoutwhowc'rc|kcytovotctor, whowcwant
toworkwith, pcrhaps cvcnwhowc'rc bcst suitcd to ovc, al
lromthcstatisticapattcrnsoldata!t'sthchcightolprcsump-
tion,anditcadstohumbingdisappointmcnts.Likcthctrccs
growinginthclorcsts oIMinncsota,wc conloundthoscwho
try to catcgorizc us, and wc do it most olthc timc without
cvcntrying. Lilciscompcx.
^d yct, bit by bit, thc Numcrati makc progrcss. !o,
thcydon'ttruyknowus,andthcyncvcrwi. utincachdo-
main, thcy undcrstand and prcdict our bchavior a bit bcttcr
todaythanthcydidastwcck.Jhcycarnlromthcirmistakcs.
Jhcyhau in morc data.Jhcycontinuc to cxpcrimcnt. Jhis
is ascicntihcproccss,andlromthcaboratoricsoladvcrtising
to countcrtcrrorism,cach olus is aid out as a spccimcn. n
somc, wc'rcrcndcrcdin hncdctai. nothcrs, it'sbarc boncs.
ut tbcrc's no turning backhomthctrcnd. !n thcagcwc'rc
cntcring, our ivcs wi bc dcscribcd, studicd, and prcdictcd,
cvcrydaymorc,throughthisstatisticaanaysis.
Jhis wi cad to al sorts ollrustrations. c' bc con-
lrontcd, lrom timcto timc, with concuions thatarc qucs-
tionabc orcvcnhat-outwrong-but dcivcrcd with thc ccr-
tainty ol scicncc. Somctimcs, this wi rcducc our options.
Arcady, insurancc companics cquippcdwithstatistica| ana-
yscs olcosts and surviva ratcs arc imposing thcir mandatcs
ondoctors, whowcrconcclrccrto trustthcirgut.Jhattrcnd
wionygrow. And a thcnumbcrs proilcratc and rcscarch-
crs carn morc about ourONA, hospitas, insurcrs, and gov-
cmmcnt agcncics wi bc instructcd by automatic systcms to
discriminatc. Likc disccrning gatckccpcrs at cxcusivc cubs,
thcy' wavc in ccrtain pcopc bclorc putting a hand up and
saying, Potyou.
Howdo wchghtback!With numbcrs. Forthis, wc havc
C O N C L U S I O N 203
to undcrstand mc mcthods that producc thcsc anayscs, and
wc must mastcr somc olmcm ourscvcs. n thc past, lor cx-
ampc, aworkcrmightmakcthccasclor araiscwithapithy
paragraph in a ycar-cnd rcvicw. Jhat's bccn my approach. )
Now, incrcasingy, thosc ol us who can quanti| annua
achicvcmcnts on an Lxcc sprcadshccthavc mc cdgc. n thc
mostdirccascs,wc'hircaycrswhohavcmastcrcdthctoos
olthcumcrati andwhocandcbunklautyandsct-scrving
concusions drawn hom statistica curvcs and corrcations.
Jhcbattc,whcthcrit'satworkorinthccourtroom, rcvovcs
around thcanaysisoldata.
P this word takcs shapc, wc' havc to hgurc out how
much olourscvcs to hidc. Occadcs ago, 'm tod, my sistcr-
in-aw grappcdwith this qucstion. Shcwas stcpping out ol
thc showcr in thc bathroom olhcr a-womcn's dorm, and
shchcardthc cal Mcn on thc hoorl Atmanyschoos, this
woudhavcbccnanon-cvcnt,buts
g
cwasinahighyconscr-
vativc rcigiouscocgc. Shcwas nakcd. Shchad ony a sma
towc tocovcrhcrscl, andthcrcwcrcmcnprowingthcha-
way. Shc coud hcar thcm. Shc wtcd, but thcy didnt go
away Soshcbcgan to thinkaboutwhichpartOthcrbodyto
covcrwiththctowc. tbarcyhtacrosshcrbottomorhcrtop.
t ccrtainy didn't covcr both. Shc had to makc a choicc. Fi-
nay, shchad an inspircd idca. Shc thrcw thctowcovcrhcr
hcad-andthcnscampcrcdnakcdtohcrroom. Givcnthcop-
tions,itwasmorcimportanttorhcrtocoakhcridcntiqthan
hcrbody
.
ln mis ncw word, a oIus arc going to lacc situations
inwhichourmostintimatcdatais cxposcd, atcastto somc-
body. And wc maybcintcrcstcd, or at castwiing, to sharc
somcolthis data. H-inlcctcdpaticnts, lorcxampc, might
wantto participatc in astudyand rcvca ots olinlormation
204 N U M E R A T I
aboutthcirsymptomsandthcirspirits,maybccvcnthcirhab-
its, butundcroncvita|condition.thatmcyrcmainnamc|css.
Jhcpcrsona|dataCbcsharcdbutnotthcidcntity
Sowc'rcgoingto havcto rccva|uatc our idcas aboutpri-
vacy and scrcts. Wc a|| havc dihcrcnt t_cs olsccrcts. Somc
things wc tcb no onc. thcrs wc sharc with lami|y and a
lricndortwo. Manyarc sccrcts in namc on|y, wc b|ab about
thcm | thc timc. But unti| rcccnt|y, our sccrcts wcrc scat-
tcrcd. Jhc doctorguardcdsomc olthcm, thc bankcr othcrs.
Jhc high schoo| tcachcr, thc drcssmakcr, thc ncighbors, thc
omcc matcs, thcya|| had thcir a||otmcnt. Somc cxistcd on|y
in mcir mcmorics, with ccrtn dctai|s cscaping, lrom timc
to timc, into risingandla||ingstrcams olgossip. Manywcrc
scraw|cd on rcccipts or prcscriptions, po|icc lorms or warn-
ings hom schoo Most olthcm, ilwc p|aycd it right, didnt
ming|c much. \n|css a dctcctivcwas onmc casc, thc bits ol
inlormationdidn'thndcachothcr.^owthcyc andwiI|.
Jhis can bcscary. O doubt itwi|| tcmpt a lcwolus to
turn away lromthc data-spcwngwor|d a|togcthcr. Somcwi||
tiptocaroundthclntcrnct, ilthe vcnturcthcrcat a||.JhI|
paywithcash, avoiding thc trai|olcrcditcards.Jhcy might
ccnwait inong|incs to throw coins into thc toI| machincs
instcadolcoastingthroughthcautomaticrcadcrs whichcan
trackmanyolourmovcmcntsandccnca|cu|atcouravcragc
spccd) .
ut with a bit olknow|cdgc, wc can turn thcsc too|s to
ouradvantagc.Youmaynothavcnoticcd, butaswcmakcour
wayinthcscpagcs lrom thcsnoopingworkp|acco thc|abo-
ratorics ol|ovc,wc gradua||cvo|vc lromdatascrls into data
mastcrs. n thc bcginning, cmp|oycrs arc using thc too|s to
ana|yc andoptimizcus asworkcrs. lnmanyolthcir ca|cu|a-
tions,wc mightaswc||bcmachincs.Advcrtiscrsandpo|itica|
C O N C L U S I O N 205
opcrativcs gathcr upourdata topunk usinto buckcts. ut
thcyrc doingitto providc uswith morcadsandpromotions
targctcd to ourtastcsandvaucs, to givc us morc olwhatwc
want.Jhat's astcptowardpowcr. nccwc'rc in!ntc'shomc-
hcth abs, hitching scnsors to our bodics and wiring our
kitchcnhoorswithmagic carpcts,thcbanccshihs.Wc'rcap-
pcaingtothcscicncc oIthcNumcratitoprotcctuslromts
andacrt usbclorcstrokcs andhcartattacks.Adbythctimc
wc'rc prowing lor ovc on Chcmistry.com, wc'vc comc m
circc. Wc'rc payinglor agorithmic prohcs olourscvcs and
iningupmamcmaticalcorrcationswithpotcntiamatcs.Jhc
point is, thcsc statistica toos arc going to bc quicty assum-
ingmorcandmorcpowcrinourivcs.Wc mightaswccarn
howtograbthccontrosanduscthcmlorownintcrcsts.
crc to start! n thcsc caryycars, it'shard. t invovcs
rcadingthctinicstprint onprivadiscosurcs atc-commcrcc
sitcs and on thc back olcrcdit-card appications. ut as wc
carn morc about thc vauc olour data, and our vunrabiI-
itics, wc' no doubt camor lor scrviccs to hcp us managc
it. Jhat shoud attract busincsscs to scrvc a growingmarkct.
nc nonprohtorganizationloundcdin2OO, AttcntionJrust,
is cading thc way. tprovidcs Wcb surlcrs with thc toos to
amass thcirowndataand to sc it, ilmcy choosc, to advcr-
tiscrs. n csscncc, AttcntionJrust is urging pcopc to harvcst
mcirowncicksandwords -dtostopgivingthcmawayto
companics ikcJacoda, \mbria, and countlcss othcrs.Atten-
tionJrust hasn't yct sprcad much bcyond a circc olmc Nct
sav. And so lar, thc markcts lor scling our own data a
cmbryonic. ut that coudwcchangcas thc broadcrpubic
carnsmorcabouthowthcNumcratiarcaddingus up.
206 T H N U M 8 A T I
P8 I TYPE on a Sunday aernoon; I put on my noisecancel
ing headphones and jack up a Mahler symphony-all to block
out a loud tutoring session upstairs. My 15year0Id is plowng
through algebra. This leads me to wonder what he'll need to
learn for a life in which he'll be measured in a thousands ways,
analyzed bit by bit, and en reassembled and optimized by
statistical wizards. Does he need to tackle advanced calculUs?
Should he delve into operations research, learn to manipulate
eigenvectors and hidden Makov models? Do he and millions
of others need to become Numerati themselves?
In a word,' no. Let's start by takg on three of the endur
ing myths that misinform this discussion and have done so
for centuries, or even longer:
t. The world is divided beteen word people and
. number people.
This becomes true only because we let ourselves believe it.
Mathematicians and computer scientists, in fct, spea words.
Many of the ones I've met along my journey were speaking
to me in their second or third language. Quite a few were el
oquent. And those of us who coister ourselves on the word
side of the divide, who tur the page in a book ever time a
formula brimming with Greek letters and parentheses pops
up (I'm guilty here) , we too have minds m of numbers.
We're constandy adding and dividing ad carrying out pro
cesses whose mathematical names sound alien to many of us.
Consider this example. The baby woke up crying at tt and
again at t, and then at 2:30. Does this mean -we lie in bed
doing a quet regression analysis -that the next cry will come
at 3: 30?
The ke diference between the Numerati and the rest of
us lies nthe toolbox they Oj. It contains sets of mathemati
C 0 N C | U 5 | 0 N 207
calormuasanddrawcrsm olagorithms thatmankndhas
bccn buiding lor thousands olycars. \sing this know-how,
thcyattcmptto putcompcxrcaityintonumbcrs so thatthc-
orics C bc tcstcd and rchncd. Jhcy anayc whcthcr ncw
buidings wi stand or bombswicxpodc, and thcyhandc
mosctraditionataskonthcirown,withminimainputlrom
thoscoluswhoarcnthandywithsuchtoosandcringcwhcn
conlmntcdwiththcm) .
ut thcncwchacngcs arc dihcrcnt.JhcNumcratimust
nowprcdict howwc humans wi rcspond to car advcrtisc-
mcnts or awagchikc. Jhc modcs thcybuidwi la hat il
thcylai to undcrstandhuman bchavior-ilthcypugin thc
wrongdata.Figuringouthowtoboiusdowntonumbcrsrc-
quircsnotonythcrigttoosbutasothcrca-wordcontcxt.
Jhat mcans mcymustworkin tcs thatdraw lrom dihcr-
cntdiscipincs and incudcpcopcwith a kinds olcxpcrtisc.
Jhcrc'spcntyolworkloranthropoogists,inguists,cvcnhis-
torians. lthcrcwascvcradividcbctwccnso-cacd numbcrs
pcopcandwordpcopc,thcchacngcscaddcmoishit.
2. JhcNumcratiarcincontro.Jhcyhavcthcir
waywithus.
Wrong. vcn thc grcatcstand mostpowcrm olthc Nu-
mcrati onymastcr ccrtain domains. vcrywhcrc csc, thcy
bcjustikc thcrcstolus. objcctsolstudy. !arryPagc, lorcx-
ampc, is a coloundcr olGooglc and a titan in thc world ol
thcNumcrati. Hisscicntistsarcbuidingmachincs to crunch
hundrcds olbiions olourscarch qucrics and cicks, and to
sc us, in ncauy organizcd buckcts, to advcrtiscrs. ut whcn
|osh Gotbaum's political program pours through consumcr
dataandcassihcsmiionsolCailorniavotcrs,itplunks!arry
Pgc into a buckct olStil Watcrs or Right Cicks. cthcr
208 T H N U M 8 k T |
thcy'rc

paticntswimagcncticprcdisposition lorbindncss or
supcrmarkct shoppcrs with a s|-high tcndcncy to mrow a
candy bar in thc cart, thc Numcrati arc sitting in thc data-
bascswiththcrcstolus.
Jhis is awondcrm mingbccausc thc pcopc in thc bcst
position to cxpoit our priva arc aso gaining a intimatc
undcrstanding ol how thcir own priva can bc trampcd.
Jhcy undcrstand it bcttcrthan anyonc.Jhis is thc dynamic
that turncd|ch|onas, thc Las Vcgas data mavcn, into apri-
vaadvocatc.
]. Jhoscwhomastcrmcnumbcrswimakca
thcmoncy.
Jhcy' makc moncy, no doubt. utnot a ol it, not by
anystrctch. Jhinkback to thc dawn otthc automobic agc.
nworkshops in Octroit and 5tuttgart, cnginccrs wcrc turn-
ingoutncwmachincspoiscdtochangcthccourscolhistory.
butpcntyolpcopcwho didn't know thcdihcrcnccbctwccn
apiston and an atcrnator stood to makclortuncs lro; cars.
Jhcyjust had to undcrstand thc trcnds and pan thcir busi-
ncsscs accordingy. Somc ol thcm buit suburban subdivi-
sions, mas, and last-tood rcstaurants whcrc loks coud cat
in thcir cars. Somc bougt and whcrc thc highways woud
bc coming through, and othcrs sod oi tankcrs too bugc to
squcczc through thc Panama Cana. Lntcnainmcnt cmpircs
grcw around Formua nc racing and PoL. Jhc mo-
tor cconomyw opcn to thoscwho sawwhcrc thingswcrc
hcadcd.
Jhatis as tructodayas itcvcrwas.Jo makthccasc, lo-
ow mc into onc morc busincss, nlorm Jcchnoogics. ts
loundcr, a lormcr bankcr namcd Nca Godman, is hard at
work buiding his sccond lortunc.
_
c's no gorithm wiz-
C 0 N C | U 5 | 0 N 209
ard. ut hc has thc imagination to scc what thc Numcrati
C buid, andhchasshownan uncannyabiityto hndgood
oncs.
nthcIos, whcn hcwas in his twcntics, Godmanw
an up-and-comcr lor Lchman rothcrs in Ncw York. Hc
workcdIzohoursawcck,doingcross-bordcrmcrgcrsandac-
quisitions, somcolthcmworm biions oldoars. twasin-
crcdibyintcnsc,hcsay.Hcoudrcguarypua-nigtcrs,
prcparing lor cary-morning prcscntations to managcmcnt.
So hc'd bc pccking away at thc computcr, gctting numbcrs
hom oombcrg, lacts lrom anayst rcports, dctaislroman-
nu rcports. Hcw puingtogcthcr data, and ittooktimc.
'd spcnd a lcw hours orgauizing it, putting it into an E-
cc sprcadshcct. Jhcn at around j A. M. ," hc rccas, 'd start
thinking. How absurd itwas,hc rcaizcd, that ahigy paid
prolcssiona was spcnding most oIthc nigt hunting down
data and pg ing it into a sprcadshcct. ut ol a Iz-hour
proccss,wasspcndingonchourthinkng,hcsays.
Godmansawthcsca|-nigthcadachcsatLchmanroth-
crs as aoomingbusincssopportunity. SohcquitinI&and
startcd a company His panwas to buid a too to organizc
andstructurcathcdivcrscbitsolinlormationhcspcntthosc
nigts hun
t
ing. A olthc conncctions had to bc a cick or
two away Somconc studying an invcstmcnt in a stccl mu,
lorcxampc, shoud bc abc to hndnotouythc hnanci rc-
cords and stock pcrmrmancc olstcc companics -that w
casy-but so thc kcy paycrs in thc industry, thcir back-
ground, and artidcs writtcn about mcm. Hc shoud aso bc
abctotrackthcpcopcinthccompanics,whcrcthcydworkcd
bctorc and gonc to schoo, thc conncctions thcysharcdwith
board mcmbcrs. Jhc scrvicc hc cnvisioncd woud stitch to-
gcthcr thc cntirc wcb olthe word cconomy, lrom raw ma-
210 T H N M 8 k T |
tcrias to pcrsona rcations. or this, hc woudhavc to pacc
an immcnsc jumbc olinlormation into thc samc symboic
univcrsc. Godmanwas no mathcmatician, buthckncwthat
iIalthcsc picccs oldatawcrc going to swimtogcthcr in thc
samc poo, thwoud nccd to bc rcprcscntcd in a common
anguagc. Hcnccdcdagcck.
Godman advcniscdonawcbsitc, andonc dayaI6-ycar-
odhigh schoo s
_
dcnt ncd|oc inhorn knodcd on his
door. Hcwassoshy, hccoudtookyouinthccyc," GoId-
m says. lora tcst, hc gavc thc boy somc undoabc mk."
inhornrcappcarcdacoupcoldaysatcr. Hc'dstaycduplor
(& hours andcodcdthccrapoutolthc thing." Godman had
lound a grccnhorn rcadyto join thc rank olthc umcrati.
|oc inhornwas his hrst cmpoycc. Latcr,|oc's brothcr |ack
woudsign on. SinccmcagcolI,hc'd bccn doing cccrrc-
scarchataNcYork\nivcrsityprogramatVctcransAdmin-
istration, ookinglorstatisticapattcrns inmccxprcssionola
gcncinvovcdinthcdcvcopmcntolprostatccanccr.
vcntuay thc tcam grcw. Ncw partncrs, invcstors, and
tcchspcciistscimbcdaboard.JhctooGodmancnvisioncd,
CapitaQstartcdtotcshapc.Anditworkcd.Muchothc

hnanciaunivcrscwasrprcscntcdwiminit,inacompcxma-
trixolvcctors.Alolthcdatacircuatcdinthcscorb, and
itw orgauizcdbyrcationships.Wantto hndYcgradssit-
tingoncorporatcboards:Cick.HowaboutlormcrEnroncx-
ccutivcs in thc cncrgybusincss: Cickcick. Godman lound
customcrs lor it, and in 2OOq, hc and his partncrs sod thc
companyto thc Standard & oor's unit olMcGraw-Hi lor
$22] miion.
ythc timc catch up with Godman, hc'sontohisncxt
start-up. His ncwvcnturc, nlormJcchnoogics, is a Numc-
rati-mccdprccisionwcapon targctcd at manyolthc pcopc
C 0 N C | U 5 | 0 N 211
WOrkWtb. cdtOrs. Pt ts rOOt, ntOrm s muOb kc LaQ-
ta _. tVcnturcs ntO tbc tangcd, mutngua unVcrsc Ot
WtttcnncWs, and tQrOQOscst matOb rcadcrsWtbtbcWcbs
Ottar- bung stOrcs tbat W ntcrcst thcm. n ts cary stagc,
ntOrm scts Out tO Organzc tbc cntrc WOrd OtncWs sO that
cVcryartOc s nkcd tO cVcry Otbcr QcOc OtncWs tbat rc-
atcs tO t. Psngc QrOhc OttbcNcnczucan strOngman ugO
LbVczcads rcadcrs aOngOts Otrcatcdtras, Onc abOut tbc
O ndustry, anOtbcr abOut rcVOutOns n Ltn PmcrOa, a
tbrd abOut LbVczs trcnds and acs n NOsOOW andcb-
ra, and Onc aDOut bs rOO} rcatOns WtbasbngtOn. n
ntOtms sObcmc, caObQcOcOtncw s atbrcad OOnncOtngtO
an mmcnc and OOnstanty mutatng taQcstry dcQOtng tbc
WOtd tOday. ts amDtOu. but tbats ]ust tbc bcgnnng. n
tmc, tbc dca s tO tOOW tbcrcadcrs OOks and Qucrcs and
turntbcm-Orus -ntOstatstOaQrOhcs.LaObOncOtusW
tbcn gct a OustOmzcd strcam Oncw. JO Orcatc tbs scrVOc,
tbc ntOrm tcam-cd by tbc LnbOrn brOtbcrs -must brng
tbcWOrdsncWs OntOasngcmatbcmatOaQattOrm.P)aOk
LnbOrn dcsOrbcs t tO mc, ntOrms unVcrsc OtncWs cXsts
as a sQbcrc Otnhntc dmcnsOns, Wtb tbc stOrtcs sbOOtng
tbrOugb tasVcOtOrs.aObOnc nIcrscOts Wtb tbc namcs and
tbcmcs tbat tbcy nOUdc. catcd stOrcs traVc n tbc amc
Oustcrs n tbsmagnarysQaOc.JbcyntcrscO.Jbs ssmar
tO tbcVcOtOr-rddcn gaaWccnOOuntcrcdn Larncgc Nc-
Ons ncXt trcnd anayss. but ms tmc, nstcad Ot scOur-
ngyOur sOOanctwOrkstOr arcnOb-sQcaktngaWcr, tmay
bc traCng dOWn ] ust thc artOc yOu Want On Ohangcs n
rcnObaW
Ncn tbnk abOutWbcrc ht n tbs agOrtbmO cOOn-
Omy, nccd OOk nO mrtbcrtban LOdmans start-uQ, WbOb
OarrcstbcumcratstratgbtntOtbchcartOtOurnasm.Jhc
212 T H ' N U M 8 A T I
editor he's building h f more range than the hu ver
sions I've known. In the world in which I've built my career,
most of the reponers coering school board meeting, tora
dos, foods, and wars are young. The idea is that when they
grow older and more settled, theyll be promoted to a higher
paying editing job. In thory, their long experience will help
them pick and shape stories that serve and interest their read
ers. Call it judgment or gut feeling, it's what sets these editors
apart. But as I climb up to Informs sixth-foor ofces, over
lookng 57t Street on Manhattans East Side,. I'm looking at
an operation built to automat editing. If machines handle
the editing, what should human editors do? Study math?
Let's take a closer look at Inform. I walk into the of
fce, and there are ]O workers in four low rows, al of them ,
hunched over computers. None Othem look at me. Aer a
minute, Joe Einhorn greets me. He's in his midtenties and
wears a baseball cap: He leads me into a conference room and
asks if I want something to drin. It takes me a minute to re- '
alize that I've just met the chief science ofcer. By U point,
his basebalcap is bobbing far down one of the aisles. I plug
in my laptop and wait for Neal Goldman and Joe's brother
Jack.
Goldman, who's in his late thinies, wears dark brown hair
parted near the. middle. The silver zipper on his black turtle
neck reaces up to his As apple. LU Dave Morgan and
Tacoda and Howard Kaushansk at Umbria, he harnesses the
power of the Numerati without matering their science. No
doubt, he knoW a whole lot more mat than a liberal arts
major lik me. He has an MBA and worked in gobal fnance.
He understands statistical anaysis. But he's no whiz at set the
ory, algebraic geometry, or computer science. He harnesses his
imagination, whic is crucial, and he delegates. "I understand
C 0 N C | U 5 | 0 N 213
itconccptuay,hcsays. cantakcaprobcm, and1 canstart
to parsc outwhat gcs oldata or scoring it wou|d invo|vc.
Jhcn communicatcittopcoplcikc|ack.
Godmans skis arc a ot morc rccvt, hom a carccr-
panningpcrspcctivc,thanthcinhorns'.Jhoscbrothcrshavc
spcciaabiity. Mostolusdon'thavcitandncvcrwi. Socict-
ics must cngagc and nurturcsuch tacnts. Jhcsc arc pcoplc,
ahcral,whowi bcbuidingthcncxtGoogcs,pcrhapsvan-
quishinglcarsomc lorms olcanccr and cxposinghiddcn nct-
works oltcrrorists. Forcvcrysocicty, ocatingthcscpcopcat
ayoung agc, whcthcr thcyrc iving in barrios orworking in
riccpaddics,isanimpcrativc. utthat'sapoiissuc. Forthc
grcat majority olus, bccoming a math or computcr scicncc
prodigisnotacarccroption.
Sowhatothcrj obsarcthcrc:ookdownthosc|ongrows
otprogrammcrs at nlorm and ask|ack Linhorn what kind
olskisthcscpcopchavc. Somcolthcm arcwizards inthcir
ownrigt,hcsays. nc,hisdidhoodlricndKay, isbuiding
autonomous robots to go snimngout ncws. Anothcr, a Chi-
ncscPh. O. namcd,spccia|izcsiscxpcrimcntingwitha|go
rithms borrowcd lrom lacia| rccognition tcchnoogy to pick
outsimiariticsinncwsarticIcs1rom| ovcrthcword.thcr
workcrs, both in NcwYork and ndia, arc workingon morc
mundanc tasks. Jhcyrc buiding sma| appications, much
ikcatoomakcrinan autopant.
Somc otthcsc pcopc work-as thcysay in thc soharc
busincss-W thcir hcads up. Jhcy ta|k to thcir co||cagucs
on thc hoor, with dcsigncrs, maybc cvcn with uscrs or tbc
sacstcam.Jhcyco|aboratc.P thcydo,thcirva|ucriscs. Pu||
thcm outolthc opcration and awhoc scrics olconncctions
gocsdcad. thcrsarcknown inthcprolcssionashcad-down.
Jhcyrconthcirown. nthcwor|dwc'rccntcring,hcad-down
I
214 T H E N U M E R A T I
workers who are not highly sklled are vulnerable. Since they
are not knitted into the greater fabric of the project, they can
be more easily replaced, like stand-alone machines, bycheaper
head-down workers ofshore. Ater all, numbers and computer
codes zip ofshore far faster than auto plants do. Math is no -
safe haven. Only those who like it, and are good at it, should
pursue it.
And the rest of us? We should grasp the basics of math
and statistics 'certanly better than most of us do today-but
still follow what we love. The world doesn't need millions of
mediocre mathematicians, and there's plenty of opportunity
for specialists in other felds. Even in the heart of the math
economy, at IBMRsearch, geometers and engineers work on
teams with linguists and anthropologists and cognitive psy
chologists. They detail the behavior of humans to those who
are trying to build mathematical models of it. Al of these
ventures, from Mct Takriti's gang at bN to the secretive
researchers laboring behind the barricades at the National Se
curity Aenc, feed from the knowledge and smarts of diverse
groups. The key to fnding a place on such world-class teams
is not necessaril to become a math whiz but to become a
. whiz at something. And that something should be in an area
tat sparks the most entusiasm and creativity within each of
us. Somewhere on those teams, oftourse, whether it's in ad
vertising, publishing, counterterrorism, or medica research,
there will be at least a few Numerati. Theyll be the ones dis.
tilling this knowledge into numbers and symbols and feeding
them to their powerfl tools.
I8 A .S UNNY morning in Palo Alto. m having breakfast
with a venture capitalist and then a session with Google in
C 0 N C L U 5 | 0 N 215
thcahcrnoon.Jhcccphoncrings.It`smy odcocgcroom-
matc, ah. O. incomputcrscicncc,whoprobabytorgcts cv-
cry ycar or womorc math than I cvcr carncd. I`m on my
vcry hrst days on this odyssq and I havc mc cxcitcmcnt ot
somconcwho`sjuststcppcdintoancwword. Itchimwhat
I`m up to and cxpain, in ascntcncc orwo, howthc mathc-
maticians arc goingto dip into thc scaotdata to tormmod-
cs ota otus. Jhis is thc mathcmatica modcing othu-
manity, say. Jhc conncction starts to fl with static, but
bctorc it gocs dcad, I hcar him say, ``I`m going to cl you
back|
Atcwminutcsatcr,I`mdrivingnorthonL. S. z&o,ook-
ingtor thc Sandhi Road cxit, whcn thc phonc rings again.
`` `m rca|worricd aboutyourstory, hc says. I tc him that
I`m hcading to intcrvicws, too busywith driving to tak. Hc
tcs mc to pu ovcr. AcrI do, hc cpains thatoncchctoo
drcamcd otmodcingthcwoddbuthas sinccconcIudcdmat
math,whicpowcrm,ishawcd.
Wy!
Lvcrhcar otgarbagc in, garbagc out! His point is that
mathcmaticiansmodcmisundcrstandingsotthcword,ohcn
using thc data at hand instcad otching down thc hiddcn
tacts. Hc tcs thc storyotadrunkooking tor his kcys on a
dark night undcr a strcctigt. Hc`s ooking tor thcmundcr
thatamp notncccssariybccauschc droppcdthcm thcrc but
bccauscit`sthconypaccwithight.
Latcrthatahcrnoon, l`msittingat an outdoorpatiowith
Craig Sivcrstcin, Googc`s chict tcchnoogist. Hc was thc
numbcr-onc cmpoycc at Googc. 1hc toundcrs, Larry agc
and Scrgcy Brin, hircd him bccausc ncithcr onc otthcm, tor
althcir briiant idcas, kncwmuchabout scarch cngincs. It`s
sunny and thc wind is bowing thc pagcs otmy notcbook,
216 T H E N U M E R A T I
andItcSivcrstcinthcstoryaboutthcdrunklookingtorhis
kcys.
Hc smics. Hc`shcarditmanytimcs bclorc. Hcrccas a
scicncc lair inJ unior high, whcrc his projcct lcaturcd\ots ol
good datahc`d cme up Wm. Iwantcd this data to bc sig-
nihcant,hcsays. inayItoundatcstthatmatchcdit.Jhc
j udgcs,hcadds,wcrcntloocd.
Spcnding a this timc ong thc umcrati, I`vc lound
mysctwondcringwhatjobsthctcstolthcwordwihandc
in an cconomy dominatcd by cacuations. ow itoccurs to
mc. it`s up to us to hcpthcm hnd thc kcys. Jhc mathcma-
ticians and computcr scicntists crcatc magic but onyilthcir
lormuascontainrca,mcaningminlormationtromthcphys-
ica word wc inhabit. Jhat`s thc way it`s ways bccn, and
ccnasthcyminc truckoadsoldata,it`satcamchort. In thc
cnd, Sivcrstcinsays, you`rcj ustcountingthings.
at`s ncw, olcoursc, is that manyolthcsc things thc
umcratiarc busycountingarcpcopc.Jh`rc addingus up
cvcrywhichway, andthcyhavcaolhumanitytomodc.Jhc
riscotthiscountingcitcwiconvusccntircindustrics. It`sa-
rcadyhappcning.Atthcsamctimc,Isuspcctitwicadmany
olus to givc morcthougt to who wc arc. P wc cncountcr
mamcmaticamodclsbuittoprcdictourbchavioranddivinc
ourdccpcst dcsircs, it`sonyhumanlorcachotustoask, Oid
thcygctitright:Isthatrcymc:
:
A 0 8 N 0 w L 0 6 M N T 5
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A CKNOW L E DG M E NTS
I`dikc to thankmy cocagucs at Buiness 'ek, who gavc mc
so much hcp and support throug this proccss. twas cdi-
torin chictStccAcrwhosu@cstcddoingacovcrstory on
math. I thankhimtorgivingmc thc storyandatcrgranting
mcmorcthanaycar`scavcotabscncctorcportandwitcthis
book. ci Gross w my thoughtm and paticnt cditor tor
thc magazinc storyanda sounding board as I

orkcd onthc
book. Jhanksaso to ctcrLstrom, rank Comcs, and|ohn
Bync. Myagcnt,|imLcvinc,jumpcdonthisbookidcawth
grcatcnthusiasmandhcpcdtrcmcndousywththcproposa.
Lizabcthishcrworkcdtirccssyonthcforcignsacs.
I coudn`t havc drcamcd tor a bcttcr cditor at Houg-
ton Mimin thanAmandaCook. ShchcIpcdshapc thc book
conccptuay. Itstartcdcaryinthcproccsswhcns
_
c todmc
tbatpracticallythccntircbookwassittinginChaptcrqotmy
proposa. Shc was right. Ouringthc writing stagc, shc scnt
a stcady strcam otmarkcd-up manuscripts trom Boston to
Montclairwhilc assuring mc on thc phonc that things rcay
wcrc moving ahcad. Jhank also to Susanna Brougham tor
hcping to shapc thc
g
nal tcxt. I`m gratcm tor thc wondcr-
mlworkotBridgct Marmion, Lori Gacr, atriccJaddonio,

SanjKharbanda, andLlizabcthLccinpromotingthcbook.
220 k C K N 0 w | 0 6 M N T 5
\
Iapprcciatcalthcgcncroushcpgivcntomcthrougout
thc proccss by my sourccs tor this book, both mosc citcd in
thcscpagcsandthcmanymorcwhoarcnot.Pspccithanks
toAnncVatzm at Carncgic McIIon Lnivcrsitywho intro-
duccdmctothcWorIdWidcWcbandcocdmcinmyitts-
burghdaystoshih:y tocustromstccItotcchnoIogy.han
tooto my ncigbor dtavoritc mathcmatician,Atrcdo
g
c-
quiIIard.
I`dIikctodircctasaIutctomyparcnts,Na|ancandaI-
tcr,whowcrc both thriIIcdwhcn thc projcct bcgan andwcrc
mIy invoIvcd in spirit to thc vcry Iast scntcncc. Ny sistcrs,
|udy, SaIIy, and Caro, wcrcIovingand supportivc throug-
out.Jhanks wcIItomysons,d,|ack, and Hcnry, and
to mywitc,|aIairc. Shc cndurcdthccomputcr-datingordcaI,
amongothcrthings.Andshc putup wth thccIickingotthc
Iaptop which drivcs hcr cr| to this day) andmyrccIining
torm on thc bIuc couch tor morc months man cithcr otus
wouIdIikcto count.
NOTE S
page I N T R O D U C T I O N
2 Gorges on dta. Data is a plural form of the singular noun dtm. But in
many felds, dta is treated as a singular noun, just as the 'singar word
sand stands for lots of individual bits of silica. That's how I use dta in
this book.
5 In a singl month, Yahoo alne. See "To A Ads, Web Is Keping Closer
Eye on You," NeYrk Tmes, Marc IO, 2OO.
Crack mathemtcam. A word about the genesis of this book. I was
pitching a cover story at an editoria meeting at Buiness wek. The
Story, I sad, would focus on the risks to the technology economy of the
United States. Many regions of the world had better Interet connec
tions and superior wireless networks, and they were graduating more
scientists ad engineers. Wat's more, the U.S. economy, which had
long attracted some of the brainiest foreigners, blocking more of
them fom coming to our country post-9I I I . And those same foreigners
had plent of lucrative opportunities at home. The editors found this
pitc too filiar. Wasn't tere a fresher way to attack this story? Neil
Gross, a senior editor, mentioned that mathematics wa at the heart of
most of te key technologes. That idea turned into a cover story. Math
was fresh. Wo wrote cover stories about mathematics?
.
I began interviewng mathematicians at MIT, the Courant School
at New York Universit and Bell Labs. And it quickly became clear to
me tat writing a story about math was ain to writing one about words.
The subject was too vast. So I focused on data, ad as I did so, the story
swered from pure math to computer science. Math is a big part of what
the Numer;ti do, though, and so we kept it in the article tite: "Math
222 N 0 J S
hOk AOurNOrd. bcc httQ:w .busncssWcck.OOmmagaznc
OOntcntO_Oqb]yOOI.htm.
7 Later note Tbi Dantg bcc LanOg, Number: The Langage ofO-
ence, Q. 7.
mathematcin named Bil Fair. Kscarchcrs atarsaaOarchOQngtO
usc thcr data-mOdcng cXQcrtsc tOr aQQOatOns H bcyOnd bnanOc.
LncQOtcntamarktsmcdOnc.cOQcWhO ncgccttO tak thcrQrc-
sOrbcd mcdOauOns nd uQ mOrc Ohcn at thc cmcrgcnQ rOOm Wth
mOtc sctOus |and cQcnsVc) QrObcms. OrgOttcn OrgnOrcd QrcsOrQ-
tOns, aOcOrdng tO ar saaO, OOst nsuranOc OOmQacs an cstmatcd
$150 2 bOn anuay n thc \ntcd otatcs. oO rcscarChcrs at thc OOm-
QanyarcdcVcOgngaytcmtOassgntOmOtusasOOrcdcnOtngthc
rskthatWOnttakcOurQs.

hOhdctashOmOutmQrcdOtthatWc`bcOOmcmcdOasaOk-
crs t mghthaVctO dOWthagc,ycarsOtscbOOng, OrWhcthcrWcVc
aOnc. hcrc may bc statstOa cOrrcatOns amOng cmcgtOuQs. at
saaO`snscarOhcrs arcQOrn_OVcrthcdunOW. utti thcmturc m
bgurc OuthOW tO QrcdOt tb rsk, wc mght ccntuay cr anumcr-
Oa sOOrc mr sO-Oacd QtcOrQtOn nOnOOmQanCc. hOsc Otus Wm
h_hnumbcrsmghtgctaccVcQdayOrL hOmthcdOOtOr`sOmOc,
rcmndng us tO m Our dtug. Naybc m'ccn scnd sOm0Onc tO
kuOOk On Out dOOr. burc t`s pnq but mm thc nsuranOc OOmQancs`
QctsQcOtVc,t`sOhcaQcrmthrccWccKsnthcntcnsVcOarcunt.
arsaaOs asOOOnsdcrngOrcatngnumcrOa sOOrcs tOt sOrts
Othuman guatcs, nOudng hOncst gcnctOsQ, and rcabq Lm-
QOyts, OtOOunc, WOud bcntcrcstcdn sOmc Otthcsc numbcn. Pd
tthc QhanthrOQy ndustry had a ss tO Our _cncrOsty sOOrcs, th
OOud tar_ctmOrccmOcntmndrasngdrwcs. S H,mcsc arc st] ust
dcas.

13 Composed ofnumber; vector, and alorthm. hcWOtdalrthm cOmcs

hOm thc namc O a nnth-ntury cnan scntst, P-Warzm.
ut agOtthmsWcrccOmmOnQaOc Ongbcmrc hm. hnkOtan agO-
rthm as asctOtnsuOn, Ot a rccQc. rcnda LctrOh, thc chctOt
math nscarchatN,bBds thcmcwn OnthcbaOkOtshamQOO bOttcs.
", rnsc, nQcat.hat`s an a_Orthm, shc say. PgOrthms QOWcr
scngncsandmarktn_mp
@
.hcysOhcduc mccntrc ma-
jOrcagucbascbascasOn.hcymctcOutmchOQsandbargnaVatOt
mcnckcnandthcOOrnsyruQandLcOOOrn_natd OtLOkc
|thatagOrUaOarcmyardcdscOtct) .
hc agOrtbm ddn`t tc tO ts Ourtcnt stardOm unt thc nVcn-
N 0 T 5 223
tion of the computer-a machine that demands logical and well-or
dered instructions (and is utterly useless without them) . With its arrival,
an entire branch of applied math and engineering started creating ever
more algorithms. These were instructions for counting things, sorting
them, making calculations and comparisons, and in short, accomplish
ing computing tasks. Naturally, many algoritms are packed with statis
tica analysis. A search engine algorithm, for example, counts how many
pages link to each Web page, how ofen they're each viewed, and how
many times and how prominently te key words appear on each page.
It builds a hierarchy on a load of calculations. But the instructions, the
foundation of the agorithm, are not based on what we usually think of
as mathematics. The keys are clarit ad logic, within a rigid set of rules.
Lawyers, I'm ofen told, are good at writing algorithms.
One nuget from IBM Rsearch: Many algorithms developed in
pat decades were viewed as theoretical. But with the dramatic advance
i computing power, some of them now can be tried out on computers.
Theyre migrating fom theory to practice. This is leading researchers to
comb through their archives for hidden algoritmic gems.
15 Ageed to sell Tacod to AOL. Tacoda is not the only behavioral adver
tising company to get scooped up by an Interet giant. In September
2007, Yaoo paid $300 million for BlueLithium, a start-up very much
like Tacoda. And the previous May Microsof spent $6 billion for
aQuantive, an advertising technology company with a behaviora divi
sion, DrivePM.
1. w 0 R K R
31 He atempted t prove that monogamy Dantzig, "Discrete-Variable Etre
mum Problems," Operatons Rsearch, vol. 5, no. 2, April 1957.
35 Mountain of fac about each emplee. "Interational Isn't Just IBM's
First Name," BuinessWek, Jan. 28, 2008. This article reports that IBM
has also deeloped a search engine cled Small Blue to locate suitable
employes. "The sofare scans employees' blog, e-mal, instant mes
saes, and reports, then draws conclusions about each participant's skills
and epertise. When other employees search by topic on Small Blue, the
program scs its fndings to get a list of experts."
40 It' getng lte in Tkrit' ofce. Samer Takiti lef his job at IBM in Au
gust 2007 to tae a position on te math team at Goldman Sachs. We
met for lunch later tat Hnear his ofce, not Hfrom the ferry termi
nal at the southern tp of Manhatta. He said that he was ready for a
224 N 0 5
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mOdcDgthc 50,000 cOnsutantsQrOcccdsaQacc,sayOmcasatbN.
Z. 5 H 0 P P 8
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th U undcrstandn_
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tO cOmQarc OurbchaVOrwth mat OtOtbcrs.hcyrc a standard Otn-
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ct, ccrytmcwc rcccVcaQcOt]unkma,wc sOrttbrOugbahcrdOt
tcsthOrscs.arsaacsacadcri hcQn_cOmQancsaaycmcrcsuts.
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thc QrOccss tO mc Onc autumn ahcrnOOn at hs OmOcs n oan bc,
LatOrna.
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cOmQaDyL b_urc Outthc mOst QrObtabc cOmbnatOn OnccntVcs
and ratcs- and cVcn thc WOrdn_ and dcs_n Otthc Qtch-tOr cach
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OOntnuctO usccrcdtczds, thcybud uQ mOrcdctacdmOdcs OtOur
buyIn_ bcbaVOr-and scnd us mOrc hOrscs. hcy QrOducc mOrc and
mOrcdata,whchcanbcmatchcd@nstOur_rOwn_rcOOtd-whatwc
buy, wbcrc wc_O, hOw dccQ wc dVc ntO dcbt. oOmc cOmgancs haVc
tacn ths tO cXtrcmcs. LaQta Lnc, a cadcr nmcrOta_ctn_, has dc-
VcOQcdmOrctban100,000 dbcrcntQmhcs tOrcrcdtcardObcrs.
Rail took a halcentr dtour Or a mOrc dctacd dcscrQtOn Ottbc
QOst-OrdarmassccOnOmyscc The NeMarketng Paradig, by
LOn L. ochuo, otancy.anncnbaum,andKObcrtF LautcrbOm.
4
Ghani ma a slh in 2002. Nnn_mccb tOAdd bcmantc Lctas
N 0 T 5 225
tO Lata Nnn_, Sprnger Lectur Notes in Arfcal Inteligence, VO.
3.209, 2004.
jj Think ofbucket Ggenes. hc an_ua_c Ot_cnctcsQcrVadcs thc sccncc
Otthc Pumcrat. dd a scarch thrOu@my nOtcs and tOund thcwOrd
geome mcntOncd 139 tmcs. hc archtcctura tcrm bluernt Whch
n thc h_uratVc scnsc s a syony, QOQQcd uQ Ony 13 umcs. n Onc
cXamQc amOn_Dany Nartn Kcmy, thcchcttcchnOO_st at thc oan
rancscOscarchstart-uQoQhcrc, saysthathstcamdcVcOQs dOcumcnt
_cnOmcs, a cOmbnatOn Ot tcaturcs that cts us hnd Othcr _cnctc
matchn_stOrdOcumcnts.
j8 One researcher at Microso. OrmOrcOncckcrman,rcad\sn_oQam
bOckcrstOar_ct\OO, BuinessWek, Lct.y 2007.
3. V 0 T R
8 Joined with two coauthors to dtail thi tumph. occApplbee' Ameca,
byNatthcw). LOwd, KOn Ourncr, andLOu_as b. oOsnck, omOn&
ochustcr, 2006.
69 Each sliver ofthe electorate. VcnQOtcadatamaVcnsdsa_rccabOutthc
Vauc OtmctO tar_ctn_. NyrcQOrtn_ tOOk mc tO thcashn_tOnOt-
bccs Ota N8chOw, a cOnsutant whO bc_an data mnn_ tOr VOtcrs
backn thc 1990S. hsWadchm a mOssback amOn_thc QOtca u-
mcrat. c sad that dcsQtca thcmctcmcntabOutcOnsumcrdata, thc
mOst uscm Varabcs rcmancd thOsc mat mytamcr m_ht haVc rccO_
nzcdashcwOrkcdtOturnOutVOtcrstOrKchardPXOnnIyO.hcsc
sXthn_smattcrthcmOst,NachOwtOdmc:
. thncty. [tcs, Dacks,)cws,andLathOcshaVcdbcrcnt
VOtn_Qattcms.)
2. Lcndcr. [nrcccntQrcsdcntaraccs,ama]OtqOtmcnhaVc
VOtcd KcQubcan.)
3. Nartastatus. (LcmOcratsdO bcstamOn_sn_cwOmcnna
andsdc.)
4. Lhurchattcndancc. [hcQOusarcmOrccOnscrVatVc.)
j. LunOwncrshQ. [LOnscrVatVcs,wmabcrtaranstrcak, tcnd
tOOwn_uns.)
. LcO_raQhy. [hchgcrthcQOQuatOndcnsty, thcmOrc
bcrathcVOtcrs.)
NcrOtar_ctcrs dO nOt chalcn_c thc s_nhcancc Otths st but
nsst that tbcy can Qry OOscatyQcandVduas wthn thcc _rOuQs.
226 N 0 T E S
Machow, by contrat, argued that many eforts outside of these core
areas amounted to markting hype.
Aother note fom Malchow: Althoug Afican Americans rep
resent core Democratic constituency, the party lacks reliable lists of
black voters. "The myth i that we have African Americans," he said.
"We dont." Unlike Hispanic, they dont have distinctive suames.
This leads list builders to seach for frst names the asociate with Ai
ca Aericans, such Latisha and Jamal. In the process, of course, they
miss millions of Roberts, Janes, Toms, and Alices.
75 A Rbert O'arow Jr wrtes. See No Plce to Hid, by Rbert O'Harrow
Jr., Free Press, 2005.
Mike Henry, Clinton's deputy campaign manager, lef the race on
February 13, 2008, following Clintons losses to Senator Barack Obama
in Virgnia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia.
4. 8 L 0 6 6 8
106 Companies and go,vement alike RMporng ove This is happening in
countless ways. Consider Michael Cavaretta. He runs a math shop at
Ford. He and his team are attempting to mine the companys vat collec
tion of warranty claims. The big chalenge is to reduce millions of doc
uments, some olthem handwritten, into math. But frst the machines
must fgure out the writers. Wat do thousands of mechaic and cus
tomer serice reps around the word mean when they write phrases like
"squeak and squeal," "shimmy and shake"? Ae those pairs of words syn
onys? Should they go into the same bucket? Do the meanings of these
words vary by region? Caaretta told me that one mechanic wrote that
a car was "squealing like the pig Bubba stuck." How does a computer
mak sense of that? Cavarettas team extracts al the knowledge it can
fom this vast collection before clustering the data and using statistical
analysis to fnd patterns of problems in the cars.
119 A blg about dodrant in Iraq. Stephen Baker, Blogspotting.net, "Cap
tive Advertising Audience at 30,000 Feet," http://ww .businessweek.
com/thcthread/blogspotting/a/2007/01/captive_adverti.html.
5. T 8 8 0 8 | 5 T
124 USA Today reported "NSA Has Massive Database of Aericans' Phone
Cals," USTdy May 11, 2006.
125 There' G lck ofhitorcal record This is a problem for NASA a well.
N 0 T 5 227
David Danks, a phUosophy professor at Carnegie Mellon University,
told me that NASA processes data from 40,000 diferent sensors on the
space shuttles, much of it coming in numerous tmes per second. This
provides sufcient data to create detailed simulations of launches. And
yet during the frst quarter-century of shuttle fights, ther have been
emly two disasters. "We have a sample size of to," he said. This m
it difcult to pick out patterns of data that point to problems.
126 Uneected earth-shaking event. Nasim Nicholas Taleb, The Blck
Swan: The Impact ofthe Highl Imprbabl, Random House, 2007.
JerFedman a stt profsor at Stnfr See The Mathematcal
Sciences' Rl in Homelnd Secrt: Pceeding ofa Wrkhop, National
Aademies Press, 2004.
'
131 JeJona, like many other. Jonas writes atlength aboutecurityand priv\C
challenges surrounding data on his blog, http://ww .jefonas. tyepad
.com/.
143 A many a 300 camera. "Watching You Watching Me," New Sttsman,
Oct. 2, 2006.
The Chinese govement announced plns. "China Enacting a Hig-Tech
Plan to Track People," New lrk Tmes, Aug. 12, 2007.
6. P k T | N T
160 "The ar a zilon peopl flwing biolg." For that sae reason, I de
cided not to fcus te medicine chapter on what the Numerati are do
ing in mvt fdd of genetics. But I did research the subject. One of
my ideas w to fgure out the genetic odds that, lik my fther, I would
dedop gaucoma and macular degeneration and entually g blind
late in my lif. This question led me to ,the Univit of Iow, where
a personable doctor named Edwin Stone has boot a world-class eye re
search operation, including the Carer FamUy Center for Macular De
generation. I learned there about an experiment to decode the entire ge
nome of a rat's e, which is similar-despite it beady appearance-to
our own. Te job for the Numerati studying te rat gene is not to fnd
singe genes tat create blindness. Those are L- Instead, the challenge
is to untangle tens of millions of rdationships among the genes and to
map the paths of power and infuence within the eye. The secret to
blindness not found in the structure of the genome but instead in
the behavior ofits components. It's ma society.
The analysis, of course, is statistical. And I learned about it, I be
g to see that it's very much like the work that goes on at Tacoda. Just
228 N 0 T E S
as LzVc NOrgzn sczrchng mrmc bchzVOrzl Qzttcrns Ot rOmtc-
mOc lOVcn, @nctc rcsczrchcrs hzVc tO Qzrsc thc bchzVOr Ot thc mu-
cnuz gcncs. Nzt zOtwtcs thcm Pc thcrc stmul cOmn_ mm Othcr
gcncs Or QrOtcns Vd Oncs I bOth dOmzns, zdVcrtsng znd -
nctcs, thc QrOccss nVlVcs shng thrOugh msVc scts Ol dOOkng
tOr Qzttcrns, wc@ng stztstc, znd usng grObzbuty tO dstngush bc-
twccn z czusc znd z cOnOdcncc. rOm thc QOnt Ot Vcw Ot thc umc-
rzt, thc mcrOscOQO mrccs wthn Our bOdcs bchzV mOrc lk OOmmu-
ntcs, Or cVcn mmkts, mzn mcOmQoncnts Ot z mzCc.
`m sorry tO rcQOtt mzt lczrncd nOthng zbOut thc cznccs mzt
wOuld g blnd, muc lcs thzt gcnct mwcrc zt hznd. `nstczd, Lr.
otOnc QtcQzrcd mc mr z grzduz aQQrOzc tO bzttlng nhcrtcd dsczscs:
`AcOuQlc Ot y @o, hc tOld mc, dcntbcd mgcnc lcd thc
bbu S. t`s nsQOnsblc mr I.S Qcrccnt Ot zgc-rclztcd mzcu dcgcn-
crztOn. Mc mzdc z tny sQzcc bcmcn mO bngcrs. t`s ths dn lt-
tlc mng, r@t but thc dscOVcQ hc szd, gVcs rcczrOcrs z lOOk zt
thc mcOm thzt czuscs mzcuzr dcgcncratOn. hs ow us thcn
tO dO cXQctmcnts mzt szy, nOw Vhy s mzt hy s z tny chzngc n
ths gcnc czusng QcOQlc tO gct thcsc uztOns undcr thcr rct-
nzs . . . t cOuld undcntznd thzt Qzmwy, hc smd, mzybc tbcrc
mn@ wc cOud dO whcn sOmcbOdy s 3S ys Old tO knOck mt Qzth-
wy dOwn lttlc bt. cn nstczd Ot thc zVcrzgc agc Ot sOmcOnc lOsng
VsOn hOm mzculzr dgcncrztOn bcng 67 Or 71 Or sOmcmng, mzybc t
cOuld b0 8]Or 91; c`d mt tO bc ncVcr. but hOm z QOQulztOn QOnt
Ot Vcw, cVcry mtcc Or tOur y thzt yu OOuld mOVc thzt curVc mzkc z
drzmztc dhcrcnOc n thc aOunt Ot blndncss Out thcrc.
171 Pvid
y
ou frk over
y
ur dt MOsQtals thzt hgurc Out hOw tO mc n-
tcllgcnt usc Ot Qztcnt dztz ac bOund tO rsc tO thc tOQ. hs, zs lczrncd
On z Vst tO thc NzyO Llnc u Kchcstcr, Nnncsotz, h lOng bccn mc
casc. mct wth thc clnO`s dztz cXQcrt, Lr. LhrstOQhcr Lhutc, whO tOld
mc zbOut z crucz bnu@. n thc brst yczrs ot thc cnc, morc
thzn z ccntury zgO, hc tOld mc, thc NzyO brOmcrs thcr OQcrztOn
mucb lkc Otbcr bg clnc. ozy z Qztcnt czmc n wth z sOrc shOuldcr.
Mc W scnt tO mc OrthOQcdc sQcczst. but t turncd Out tO bc a hcart
QrOblcm| oO Oh hc wcnt tO thc cOrOnzp sgcczst. mc tOOk sOmc mcd-
Onc thcrc znd brOkc Out i mcs. Ne stOQ, dcrmztolOgst. E Ot
thcsc thrcc dOctOrs had z scQzrztc tccOrd Ot thc Qztcnt. Lhcn m hzd
tO trzck dOW mcr Ollc@uc tO Qccc togcthcr thc twsts znd turns Ot
thcr Qztcnt` L.

Lntcr mc Nzy brOmcrs` Qzrtncr, Mcnry lummcr. n 1907, hc

N 0 T 5 229
and his assistant, Mabel Root, devised a new system. Upon signing in,
each patient received a dossier, to be carried fom doctor to doctor. This
way, each doctor could study the medical histor of their patients fom
the frst day they arrived at the clinic. When the patents checked out,
their dossiers went into a big fle. PlU er and Root put color cod
ings on the dossiers for each type of disease and treatment. The result,
said Chute, using language that sounds more Google than Mayo, "They
had a paper database that was structured and searchable!" Through the
years, they indeed the dossiers wit
h
ever fner detail. This enabled tem
to engae in what our generation would call analytics. They could look
at eery case of colon cancer or tonsillitis, and analye which treatents
were most efective and cost-efcient. "This was continuous qual
ity improvement," Chute said, referring to the industrial process Japa
nese automakers made fmous decades later. They turned the practice
of medicine from 3 boutique business of independent consultants into
a moder business. "This place exploded out of the corn felds." The
challenge now, of course, is to come up with a similar breakthrough for
medical data in the tenty-frst century.
172 In Brtain, Norwich Union ofe. "Norwich Union Buys Tracki

g Equip
ment for Pay-a-You-Go Motor Insurance," Insurance Buiness Rview
Oct. 6, 200
5
.
7. L 0 8
195 94 percent ofus. cororatons. "The A of the
O
nline Rsume," Bui
ness wek, May 7, 2007.
196 Sofare to record their movement and interacons. "Gadgets That Know
Your Next Move," Tchnolg Rview Nov. 2006.
C 0 N C L U 5 | 0 N
215 "Garbage in, garbage out." Not everyone agrees w the filiar thesis
of garbage in, garbage out. Early in my research, I was talking about it
with Wiliam Pulleyblank, IBM's vice president in chage of business
optimi2ation and a former director of the company's Deep Computing
Institute. "Garbage in, garbage out isnt correct anyore," he said. "You
haven't got time to clean up your data. The rea challenge i how you
make someting of value from 'garbae.' " In other word, in a fst-mov
ing business world, quick and dirty conclusions have a fghting chance
to work. Slow and sure, by contrast, is ofen an oxymoron, because dm
may be out of date by the time it's cleaned and vetted.
I
!*
.
.
. -
.
` .
b b h L b b AND
b h 1 d b h h b A DI N G
Ayres, Ian. Supercnchers: Why Thinking-by-Number Lthe New my to
Be Smar. Banta, 2007
Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo. Linked Plume/The Penguin Group, 2003
Bardi, jason. Socrates: The Callu mr. Thunder's Mount Press, 2006
Brigs, Rex, and Greg Stuart. Wat Stck. Kaplan Publishing, 2006
Brin, David. The Tansparent Socet. Basic Books, 1998
Courant, Richard, and Herbert Robbins (revised by Ian Stewart) . What
Is Mathenatcs? Oxord University Press, 1996 (originally published
in 1941)
Dantzig, Tobias. Number: The Langage o/Scence. Fourth edition. The
Free Press, 1967
Gleick, James. Isaac Newton. Vintage Books, 2003
Hamm, Steve. Bangalre Tger. McGraw-Hill, 2007
Henshaw, John M. Does Meaurement Meaure U? The Johns Hopkins
University Press, 2006
Morille, Peter. Ambient Findbilit: What w Find Changes Wo w Be
come. O'Reilly Media, 2005
O'Harrow, Robert Jr. No Plce to Hid. Free Press, 2005
Schut, Don L.,Stanley I. Tannenbaum/ and Robert Lauterborn. The
New Marketng Paradig: Integated Marketing Communicaton.
NTC Business Books, 1994
Sosnik, Douglas B. , Matthe J. Dowd, and Ron Fournier. Applbee'
Amerca. Simon & Schuster, 2006
.
-
J 5 0 0 R C S
Sts, Chris, dJohn Wbster; Inescapabl Dat 1mcssin

the Power
.
. ofCve
r
ence. bM rcs,2005
:
Watts, Duncan 1. oDe : The Sence ofN Cnnected. A Norton,
2003
Nirchcad,^lrcd!cm. lductn to /mmnr:. Bn & Ibc
.
Book, 2005 (ogna publLe4 inI .
.
N D b X
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cacuatn_ratcOtrctumtOr, yq,
yj
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y8,IOO-II
custOmcrstssbarcdby, 2,],
yI_2, 2O]
andthcntcrnct, 2-], Ij-I, q2,
y8-t22, I8], Iyq
mcmtar_ctn_by, yI,2Oj,22qn
andrcta stOrcs, q]-, ]O,I2j,
IqI, I8], Iy2
scn_OurOwndatatO, 2Oj
See alo buckcts; ohOQQcrs;
rbcs
PrcanAmcrcanVOtcrs, 22n
P_c [_cncratOns)
dstn_ushn_, tbrOu_bwOrd
anayss, :OOIOI, IO8,III
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A_Orthms
tOranayn_Qatcnts, Ij8,IO,
I8I
tOranayn_shOQQcrs, j], Iyq-yj
tOranayn_tcrrOrsts, I22],
I2y, Iqj
tOranayn_VOtcrs,]2, 8, yI
tOrbOO_caanayss,j, IO
datn_scrVccs`uscO| I82, I8,
Iy2, Iyq-yj, 2OO, 2Oj
dchncd,]I-]2,222-2]n
asPumcrattOO, I], Iq,]O-]2,
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I82,I8q, I88
ALL[cOmQany) ,Ij-I
234
Aplebee' America [LOd), 8, y2,
22jn
ArnOd, LOu_as,
Arthcantc_cncc, IOy-8
See alo LOmQutcrs; Nacbnc
carnn_
PLKL, ]O-]I
AttcntOnrust[cOmQaDy), 2Oj
bakcr, Nary)ancandatcr[au-
tbOr`sQarcnts),y2-y, 8j,
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bakcr, otcQbcn, I82-8, Iy8-2OO
barnaccshOQQcrs, jI-j],
barn hscrs trbc, y8, 8O, 8I, 8],
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bcd scnsOrs, Ij8, II, Iyy
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,
4,
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1y6y8, 2OI-2, 2Oy
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trackn_OtCcQbOncuscts`,
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Iy-Iy, I8y, I88
trackn_OttcrrOtsts`, I2j-2
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bcbavOramarkcrs, IO
bctran, LarOs, 2y-28, O
bnLadcn, Lszmz, I2, Iy
| N 0 X
bOO@aDdbOO_ts, y, II, I, j8,
I2, IO, Iy-8, I88-8y, 2OI,
22yn
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ack,scbcr,2I
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bO__cts, y-I22
buctOOmdatacOnncctOns, IO]-
bOOtstraQQct trbc, 88-8y
bOOtstrzQQn_, I6
brands,IO, y, jO
brn,ocr_cy, 2Ij
brtan,I]
buckcts, jO-jj, jy, jy, 8O8I, IOj,
LLj, I28, I8y, 2Oy, 2Oy
See alo rbcs
budcrs [gcrsOnaq gc),I8y-yI
busb,LcOr_cw, 8, yI-y2, yj, IIq-
Ij, I2, I]I
BuinessWek [ma_nc),Iyj, 22In
buttctBysbOQgcrs, j], q
buzzNctrcs [COmQay), IOq, I2I
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atPcccnturc,,]-
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n bOmcsOttbccdcty, I2-],
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LaQta!QzIO, 2LI
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Larnc_cNcOn\nVcrsq[LN\),
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dataQrOduccdby, q, j,I, Iyj-yy
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I]q
tracktn_uscO| ]j, I]O, Iyj-yy
Lcntrantc_cncccncy.
. See CI
LhVcz,u_O, 2II
Lhcmstry.cOm, I82-y], Iy8,Iyy-
2OO, 2Oj
Lhna, ]]]8, Iq]-qj
LhOccOnt[cOmQany), ]j
Lhutc, LhrstOQhcr, 228-2yn
LP[Lcntrantc_cnccA_cncy),
I2q, I2y, I]j
LVcocntrcs trbc, 82,87, y]
LVbcrtcs. See rVacy
LaCOynccLOrQ.,Ij2
Lustcrn_sOhwarc, I-2
LN\. See Larnc_c NcOn\n-
Vcrsty
LOdc-brcakn_, I28-]O
LOdar, I2y-]O
Lommunty, ]O,]I, ]q, ]], ]y-8O
LOmQutcrs
anda_Orthms, 222-2]n
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brans cOmQarcdtO, j
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:
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hstOryOtuscs O| ]-II
sQccdOtcacuatOnsby 88],
II2
tcachn_, tO rccO_nzctrbcs,
jy-2
235
wcakcsscsO| IIzI]
andwOrkcrs,I]-qO,]-q,y],
IO
See alo A_Onthms; LOmQutcr
sccntsts;Lata;ntcrnct;
Nachnccarnn_;Nathc-
matcamOdcs; Nathcmat-
cans; rVacy; KL
LOmQutcrsccntsts
cOmQcttOnOVcrhrn_O|Iqj-q
asmakn_scnscOtdata, , y, ]j-
]], I2y
andmath,22In
mythsabOut, 2O-Iq
See alo LOmQutcrs; Pumcrat
cOmocOrc [cOmQany) , j
LOnsumcrs. See ohOQQcrs
LOOkcs [On cOmQutcrs), 2
LOrQOratOns
ccctrOncrcsumcsmr, Iyj
ntcrcstO|ncOcctn_data
abOutQcOQc, I]q,Iq]-qq,
IjO, Ij2
ntcrcstO|ncOcctn_data
abOutthcrcmQOyccs, I8-
qO, ]-q, y], IO, IjO,
2Oq
markctn_rcscarchby I], ]j
See alo Name of specic coror-
tons
LOuntcrtcrrOrsm. See crrOrsts
LOuntcs, 8j-8
LOw[hstuatcd) , Iy-]j, Iyj, Iy8
LraVcr,)aarc [authOr`sWtc), qI,
I-2, 8j, 8
anddatn_QucstOnnarc, I82, I8q,
IyOyI,Iy8-2OO
Lrcdt [cOnsumcr),q, 8, I2,I2j-2,
I8], 2Oj,22qn
Lrmnas, 8y,I]]-qI
236
"Crossing Guards" tribe, 8z, 88
Crytology I28-]O
Cumby Chad, y
Customer loyty cards, I, ], 8-y
Cyorp project, IOy-8
Danks, David, 227n
Oantzig, George, ]I
Dantig, Tobias, y
"Dark cutters," Iy]
Lztz, 22In
altering, I2
amount of dealt wm by human
bmn, 2j
anaying, Ij, I8), 2OI-]
collecting of by cinos, IOI `
collecting of by goernments
seeking terrorists, Iz]-j]
collecting of by political parties,
y-yj, 22j-2n
collecting of by retail stores, I,
], 8, y, y
'
, I2j, II, I8],
Iy2
collecting o fom cell phones, ,
j, I, Iyj-yy
collecting of fom L Iy-yj,
Iyj
collecting of on patients, Ij-8I,
2Oj, 2O8, 22y-2yn
.
correcting, 22yn
as empowering people, Iyy,
2O2-j, 2I
geometry applied to, II8-2I
individuals' production of -j,
I8-Iy, Iyj-y8
in online data services, I82-2OO
people as, II-I, 2Oy
"rpurposing" of Ij2
sdling our own, 2Oj
value of 7
| N 0 X
See alo Algorithms; Behavior;
Computers; Data mining;
Privac; Sureillance; Sym
bols
Data masters, 2O-j
Data mining, , jy, 22j-2n
of audio fles, Ij
ofblogs, yy-II
dangers of II, I22], II-2,
I8-y, IjI-j2

of e-mail, ], I8, 22, ]j-]y, IO, IO
"flse positives" in, 8y, II], I2,
I]2-
J
], IjI
by MS/I2q-]I, 1
of photos, I2, I2-, Iy8
Data serf, I8, O, 97, 2O

Dating serices (online), I82-2OO,
2Oj
Democratic Party y-)O, y]-8,
y2-y]
Demographics
and advertising, IO, IO2-]
ofbloggers, y8
Y. "buckets: j-jj
data tg and, I2
ofInteret survey respondents,
y8
and online dating services, I8,
I88, Iy2

and voting behaor, yO-], 8]-
8y, y2, 22jn
See alo Ae; Gender
Deodorant, IOI-2
Diettich, Brenda, 222a
"Dirctors" (personalit type),
I8y-yI
Disciplines (acaemic)
algorithms maing stUdy pos
sible across, I, jy-j8
and mathematical modding, 2],
| N D E X
]j, I2y, Iq2, Iqy-jO, 2O],
2I]-Iq
Lshman, Lrc, Ijq-], I]q, I],
I]8-8O
LPP,IO,2O2
bchaVOrkcncdtO, 22, jj-j8,y2,
Iq2, Iqj, Iy8
LOman,IIq
LOQamnc,I8y
LOwd, Natthcw, 8,y2
LrVn_scnsOrs, I]2
Lubrawsk,Prtur, Iq-q]
La_c, Pathan,Iyj-yy
Ld_cs msOcanctwOrks) ,
Iq]-q8
L_cnbchaVOr, Iy]
nhOrn,)acK, Iq-Ij,2IO-I]
LnhOm,)Oc, 2IO-I]
L-ma
datamnn_O| j, I8, 22,]j],
IOq, IO
mcmOryssucsrcVcacdn, I]q-
]j, I]]
See alo oQam
LmOtOnanays, I,y2,IOI,14 -
qj, I8]
Ln_nccrs, , 2y,I2y
. See alo Pumcrat
Ln_mamaOhnc,L2y
LnrOn LOrQOratOn, 2I-22,]
LsscXLOunty[Pcw)crscy), 8j-8
LstrO_cn, I8y, IyO
LVans, LaVd, Ij2
LQOrcs [QcrsOnaItytyQc) , I8y-
yI, 2OO
accbOOk.See oOcanctwOrks
acarccO_ntOn, ]-q, Iq2-qq
ar, b, 8, y]
arsaac [cOmQany) , 8, y],222n,
22qn
237
as [bythccdcry), II,I2
ascQOstVcs [ndatamnn_),
8y,II],I2,I]2,IjI
b, I2q
ccdDackOOQ, I2
nancc, 2I, 2-2]
See alo Lrcdt [cOnsumcr)
shcr, ccn, I82-8j, I8]-yI, Iy8
Ocus_rOuQs, y8
OrdLOrQOratOn,22n
OX,Nchac ). ,Ij
rcdman,)crry, I2
rcnds
hndn_, a busncss, Iy7-yy
andPcXtrcndPnayss,Iq
q8, 2II
See alo Latn_scrVccs;oOca
nctwOrks
LarDa_c n, _arba_c Out, 2Ij,22yn
LatOradctrbc,IO]
Lcndcr, IOO-IOI, IO8-II,IIj-I
LcncratOns. See P_c
Lcnctcs, 22jn,22]-28n
See alo bOO_yandbOO_sts;
LPP
LcOmctry, II8-2O
Lcrmany
cOdcsuscdby, I2y
smartcartsn,q8, j-
sQcsn,q,I2O
Lhan,Kayd, qq-jI, j]-jq, j]-q,
]O
Lsh,crb, Iqq-qj
LObazatOn,IOII
LOdman,Pca, 2O8-I]
LOdstandard, IOy, III
LOdwatcr, barry, ]]
238
LOO_c, IOq, IO, Ij8, Ijy, Iq, Iyy,
2I]-I
adVcrtscmcntsOn,II]-I8
atnOuntOtdatahandcdb I2q
tOundcrsO| 2O]
`mccn_LucDuttOnOn,
Iy]
mathcmatcsas DassO| ),Ij
andscarcbcn_ncOQtmzatOn,
Iq
succcsscsO| I], yOyI
LOrc,A,yI, yj
LOtDaum,|Oshua, y-yO, yq-8q,
8y-yO, y],IIj, I26, 2O]
LOVcrnmcnts
dscrmnatOnDy, 2O2
andhcathcarccOsts,Iy
ntcrcst O| n dcntqngQcOQc,
I],IOq,IO, I]-]j, I]-qq,
IjO, Ijz
See alo Specifc countes and intel
ligce oranitons
LrOccrystOrcdata. See KtastOrc
data
LrOss, Pc, 22In
LuantnamO bay 8y, Iyj
\
aDcascOrQus, I2]
arcn, crrc, ]8-]y
cathcarccOsts, Ijy, Ijy, II, I]q,
2
(
z
See alo nsurancccOmQancs
carn_, I

See alo NOccs
cartbccQcrstrbc, y8, 8I, y]
cckcrman, LaVd, j8
cnry, Nkc, y]-yq, 22n
lPo, j8, 2O]
OrmOncs, I8y-yO
MOrscraccs [statstcatcsts), 224
I N 0 E X
1uDcr,ctcr, Izq

yQcra__rcssVc dsOrdcr, I7y, I8O

bN [OOmQany)
anda_Orthms, 222-2]n
bchaVOrQrcdctn_ D Iq, I88
cOmQutcrsmuauOnsuscdDy, 2y
DttyJnaytcs_rOuQn,I]],Iqy
matbcmatcamOdcngOtcm-
QOycc 0| 7O-]],]7
-]8,
7
2]n
atsOn KscarchaDOratOryO|
2O-22, IIq
bNPOnymOusKsOutOn[cn-
cryQtOnsOharc) ,Ij2
bNLODaocrVccs [cOmQany) , ]]
L7cchnOO_y[cOmQany),I2q
dcntty
data cOccuOn aDOut, yj
cncryQtOnO|Ij2
hdn_O|2O]-q
See alo acarccO_ntOn; Mcs;
rVacy;NOccs:rccOgn-
tOn Ot
LLL [OOmQany) , ]8
ma_cs. See hOtOs
`mccgLuc DuttOn [On
LOO_c), Iy]
nda,IO8,Iqj
ntOrmcchnOO_tcs,Iq, 2O8, 2IOI]
nncrLOmQass trDc, ]8,82, y]
n-_-c [cOmQany), I]j
nsurancccOmQancs,Ijy,I]2,Iyq,
2O2, 222
ntc[OOmQan
y),Ijq-jj, Ij

, I]-j,
Iy, Iyy, 2Oj
ntcrnct
DO_gn_On, yI22
cOcctngdataaDOutuscO| I-q,
q2, q]
crmmas` usc O| I]q
N 0 E X
datng scrVccs On, I82-2OO, 2Oj
cary days O| Ij8
gOVcrnmcnt taQQng O| IO, I2
]Oumasm On, Iy-I8, ]y-O,
2II-I]
QrVacy dscOsurcs On, 2Oj
sOca nctwOrks On, yy, y8,
IO-
suwcys On, y8, I82-2OO
tcrrOrsts` usc O| I]O
See alo PdVcrtscrs; LOmQutcrs;
Lata; Specic computr cor-
.
.
porton
raQ, I]I
rcand, Ijy
saac, Lar, 8, y]
sOQuant, y
)aOks, ycr, I8
Jackon' Dilemma (NurdOch), Iyy
)Onas, )c I]I-]), IOI, Iy, IjO
j], 2O8
)Ournasm, Iy-I8, ]-O, 2II-I]
tnc, m, y]
hansas otatc \nVcrsty, Iy
haushans, MOward, yy-IOI, IO],
IOy, II-I, 2I2
hch Lanccr nsttutc, Iy-8
hrcmcr, cd, IOy-IO, II2-I, I2
humar, v, jI-j]
Languagc Aays oystcms (cOm-
P
zn

Iy
L Ncgas (cvada), I]I-I, Iq,
IjOj]
LOas. See Lrcdt (cOnsumcr)
LOgstcs, j
See alo LQcratOns rcscarch
LOVcrs, I82-2OO, 2O2
239
Nachnc czrnng, , jy, IO-I,
I22, I6, IyI, Iy]-yj, 2O2
See alo LOmQutcrs; Lata mnng
Nacuzr dcgcncratOn, 22]-28n
Nz_c czrQct scnsOrs, Ij6j8, II-
6], I8, 2Oj
NachOw, Ma, 22j-2n
Narkctng. See PdVcrtscrs
NassVc rcdundang,
Nass-QrOductOn, IO, Iy-I8
and rcta, 2-], j
and Vrtua asscmby nc, ]y,
O
Natch.cOm, Iy2
Nzthcmatcz mOdcs (statstca
mOdcs)
acadcmc dscQncs cOntrbu-
tOns tO, 2], ]j, I2y, Iy-jO,
2Oy, 2I]-I
Ot bascba Qaycrs, zy-2
OtbOggcrs, yy, IO, IO8-II,
I2I-22
Ot crmnas, 8y
dOubts abOut, 8y, I]2-]], zIj-I
Ot ]Ournzsm rcadcrs, 2II
OtOVcrs znd trcnds, I8, I82-
2OO, 2O2
umcrats usc O| I2-I], IO
Ot Qatcnts, Ij-8I, 2Oj, 2O8, 222n,
22]-2yn
QcOQc as mOrc than, II-I2, 28, ]O,
2OI-2
Ot QcOQcs wrtng, Iy6-y8
Ot shOQQcrs, q66
Ot studcnts, Iyj-y]
Ot tcrrOrsts, I2y, I]2-]], II, Iq8
Ot VOtcrs, y-yj, 2O2, 2O-j, 2Oy
Ot wOrkcrs, Iy-qO, 2O2, 2Oq
Ot Ord zr cOnVOys, ]O]I
See alo PgOrtbms; LcOmctry
240
Mathematicians
competition over hiring of
145-46
as making sense of data, 6, 9, 15,
21-22, 30, 175-77
myths about, 206-14
NSAs employent of 104, 123,
127-31, 146 .
See alo Data; Mathematicl mod-
els; Numerati; Symbols
Mayo Clinic, 201, 228-29n
McGraw-Hill (company) , 210
Medical records, 180-81
Medical sensors, 155-59, 161-63, 166,
168, 172, 177, 205
Medications, 166-68, 222n
See alo Health care costs
Memory lapses, 154, 156, 159-60,
174-78, 180
Metro (company), 48, 65-66
Microsof (company), 14, 19, 48, 58,
145, 159
Microtargeting
by advertisers, 42, 51-55, 57, 91,
205, 224f
of voters, 67-95, 225n
Mills, Fred, 124
MIT, 167-68, 196
Mojsilovic, Aeksandra, 22-23
Money, 26
Monitor (Yankelovich publication),
76-77
Monitors. See Sensors
Montclair (New Jersey), 82, 86, 90
Morgan, David, 1-4, 9-11, 15-16, 19,
54, 187, 212, 228n
Multiple discriminate analysis,
87-88
Murdoch, Iris, 177
, MySpace. See Social netorks
| N 0 X
Names
fnding people by, 13, 132, 14I, 149-
50, 226n
on phone prompts, 176
protection of in data mining, 152
NASA, 226-27n
National Cryptologic Museum, 123,
125, 127-30
National Science Foundation, 170
National Security Aenc (NSA)
data mining by, 104, 142-46
mathematicians working for, 104,
123, 127-31, 145-46, 214
social netork interpretation by,
35, 149-50
Natural language processing, 107-8
"Negotiators" (personality type) ,
189-91, 200
Netfix, 52, 125, 162
"Neural netork" programs, 125-26
Newton, Isaac, 184
New Yrk Tmes, 143
Next Friend Analysis, 146-50, 211
Nicaragua, 73
Nicolov, Nicolas, 113-14, 116, 118-21
Nielsen BuzMetrics (company) ,
104, 121
9/11 terrorist attack, 104, 123-26,
130-31, 135, 171, 22m
"Nodes" (in social networks), 147
. "Noise," 5
No Plce to Hide (O'Harrow) , 75
NORA sfare, 133-35, 152
Norman (fstulated cow), 169-75,
195, 198.
NSA. See National Securit Agenc
Numbers. See Data; Mathematic
models; Numerati; Symbols
Numerati
defned, 9
N D E X
carnn@Ot, Ij,2O8-Iq
mythsaDOut, 2O-Iq
scarchtOrhddcncOrrcatOns
amOn_QcOQcDy,I-q, II, j-
j],II, Ij, 2Oj
succcssmmcthOdsO|J8]
tOOsO| I],Iq, ]O-]2, ]y, j]-j8,
2Oj, 2O-]
See alo LOmQutcrsccntts;
Nathcmatcans
L`arrOw, KODcrt,]r. , ]j
LgcratOnsrcscatCh, ]O-]], ]8, q]
LgtmzatOn,]2-]],]], Iyq
Lrcatcch[Lrc_OnLcntcrtOr_n_
andcOhnOO_y) , I]j-]8
Lutcrs, ]], I, I2]
a_c,Larry, 2O], 2Ij
amsanO,oam,2g
aKnsOn`dsczsc, Ij-]
atcnts,2O,Jjq-8I, 2Oj, 2O8,
22]-2yn
aVc,Ncba, I]j]]
cOQc
zs DO__crs, y-I22
dataas cmQOwcrng, Iyy,2O2-j,
2I
nnOccnt,nadVcrtcntycau@t
Dymathcmatca mOdcn_
[tascQOstVcs), 8y, I2j,
I2-2], IjI
OVcrs, I82-2OO,2O2
mathcmatcamOdcngO| I2-
I], 2O-qO,qq-
4
,yy
=
IOO,
2OI-I
mOrcthan mathcmatcamOd-
cs, II-I2, 28, ]O, 2OI-2
umcrat`sscarchtOrhddcn
cOrrcatOnsamOn_,I-q,II,
241
j-j], II, Ij, 2Oj
8 Qatcnts,2O,Ijq-8I,2Oj,2O8,
22]-2yn
as shOQQcrs, 2O, qI, y/
astcrrOrsts, ]j, I2]-j], 2O2
VOtcrs, I2, j8, }-yj,2O2,
2Oq-j, 2Oy
aswOrKcrs, I]-qO,]-q,yy, IO,
IjO, 2O2,2Oq
, See alo bchaVOr, Lata,Nath-
cmatca mOds; bOca nct-
wOtks
crOt, . KOss, 8I-82
hQOsc,Nattha,J]-j
hOtOs
datamnn_O|I2q, 14-4, Iy8
OnOnncdatng scrVccQtObcs,
I8j8]
OnQhOncQrOmQts,I]
shatn_,VacOmQutcrs, y
n_s, I2I
ummct, cnry, 228-2yn
Otcs
QcOQc`sackOtntcrcstn, ], ]O,
]q-]j, /8-]y
See alo NOtcrs, Specic pares
On_
aDOutccctOns, IIq-Ij
rcsstancctO, /O
aDOutVaucs,]6-O, 8]
Ostn [cOmQany) ,JO
tcscrQtOns. See NcdcatOns
rVa
nOt acOnccrnnanmatctn_,
I]I
cOncctnsabOutOssOt, I2], 132,
I8O8I, 2O8
ssucnLurOQc,]
QcOQc`sVOuntatyhn_O|y]-
y8, Ij
242
Privac (cont.)
personal details a violating, 2
and phones, 104, 124-25, 198-99
policies regarding shoppers', 45
protectionsJor, 151-53, 158-59,
180-81, 203-5
of workers, 18-19, 40
Propability, 21-22, 90, 108, 228n
Probst, Katharina, 47
Proxies, 70, 83-85, 90
Psycholog, 14, 184, 188
Pulleyblank, William, 229n
Quantifcation, 7
See alo Mathematical models
Quants, 27, 163
Raghavan, Prabhaar, 5-6, 128, 145
Rmy, Martin, 225
0
Rpublican Party 68, 72-75, 81, 87,
91-92, 225n
"Rsourcefs" tribe, 83, 84
Retail store data, 41-66, 70, 125, 141,
183, 192
See alo Advertisers
RFID technolog, 65
"Rght Clicks" tribe, 81-82, 87-88,
93, 126, 207
Romantic-movie lovers, 1-3, 15-17,
57, 227n
Root, Mabel, 229n
Rosenberge
r
, Lary, 224n
Rove, Karl, 68, 91
Sandia National Labs (New Meico),
169-70
Schat, James, 104, 123, 127-30, 146,
150
Scholes, Myon, 21
The Sea, the Sea (Murdoch), 177
I N 0 k
Search engine optimization (SEO),
194
Second Life (virtual world), 29
Sensors
in animals, 169-75
medical, 151, 154-59, 161-68, 170,
177, 205
SEO (search engine optimization),
194
Serotonin, 189, 190
72-Hour Tak Force, 91
Shakespeare, William, 184, 185, 192
Shoppers (consumers)
averaging of, 61
bloggers a, 96106, II2
choices available to, 10-I1, 193, 205
data collected about, 4, 43, 48,
49, 76-78, 80, 83, 87, 90-92,
97, 98-106, I12, II4, 124, 205
lists of 62, 76, 91-92, 207
tageting of individua, by adver
tisers, 5, 4,
51-55, 57, 91, 205,
2240
See alo Advertisers; Credit
Sifry, David, II5-16
Silverstein, Craig, 215-16
Simplex algorithms, 31-32
Simple triangle, 94-5
Singapore, 5, 38
Small Blue search engine, 223n
"Smart bombs" (medical), 168
"Smart carts," 48-50, 52, 65-66
Smith, J. Waker, 76-
77, 79, 84, 85,
87-88
Smith, Jef 42, 43
"Social health index," 178
Social netorks, 18
analysis o[through cell phone
data, 198-99
and dementia, 178
N 0 X
Onntcrnct, y], y8, IOq-
ntcQrctatOn O| ]j-]], Iq8-jO,
I]8, Iy8
tcrrOrsts`uscO|Iq2,Iq-q8
trackn_Otbusncss-rcatcd, 2Oy-
IO
See alo atn_sctccs;rcnds
oQam, j8, IO, II8,I2I
See alo oQO_s [sQambO_s)
oQtzcr, Ot, I2
oQO_s [sQambO_s),II]-2O
oQOt_htPnayss [cOmQany), y,
]], ]8, 8O-8q, 8, 8], 8y, y2
oQyn_. See ourVcacc
o [oystcmsKcscachandLcVc-
OQmcnt) , I]j
otandard& OOr`s [cOmQany), 2IO
otandats trbc, 8y
otatstcamOdcn_.See Nathcmat-
camOdcs
otaustca_uatyLOntrO,I]
otco,Nark,yq, yj
otatcrs trbc,82-8, 2O]
otOChastcanayss, 2I,22
btOuc,dn, 22/-28n
Stangers to Ourelves [sOn) , 2j
otrataNark[cOmQany) , ]8
otrcss, Iy, I]y
outcancc
OtcasnOs, I]-qI
cOmQancssQccazn_n,I2q
OthcathmOntOrs, Ijq-8I
OtOurscVcs,4, Ij, I, 2Oj
nQubcQaccs,q,q],]-q,Iq]-
qq, IjI
QunshmcntasncVtabcQartO|
I]]-]8
tcchnOO@tOr, IjO-j]
Ot wOrkcrs, I8-qO, ]-q, y],IO6,
IjO, 2Oq
243
See alo LMcras; rVaCy
own_VOtcrs, y, ], ]y-yj,22jn
oybOs,_, 2]-2
See alo NathcmatcamOdcs
oystcmsKcscarOhandcVcOQmcnt
[oK) , I]j
acOda [cOmQany) , 2-],II,Ij,Iy, 2],
jq,Ij8,I8], 2Oj,2I2, 22]n
t,oamcr, 2O-2], 2
3!
, ]], ]/-
]8, qO, 2Iq
abOtt,)m, Iy2
acb,PassmPchOas,I2
cars OtLust [bO_@r) ,yy8,
IO-], IOy,1L I22
ccmOrat [scarchcn_nc) , y]8,
IO2, IIj-I
ccQhOnccOmQancs, IO], IOq,I2q-
2j, Ig8-yy
See alo LcQhOncs;On_
crrOrsts,]j, I2]-j], 2O2
See alo 9 tcrrOrstattack
cstOstcrOnc, I8y
hcrncau,crry, 2OI
Orturc, I2]
Jrcc dcntbcatOn, 2OI-2
rbcs, qj, jy, ]q
amOn_bO__crs,IO]-q, IIj-I
QOtca, 8OyO,y2-y]
See alo buckcts
ruchscss,PbrcchtVOn, j
2q]KcaNcda [cOmQany), 2
\mbraLOmmuncatOns, yy-D,
IIB-22, I2, Iqj, Iq],Ij8,
2O, 2I2
Under the Net [NurdOch), I]]
\.o.Arways, I2O-2I
\.o.Pntsubmarncarrc LQcra-
tOnsKcscarchLrOuQ, ]O]I
t
244
U. S. Department of Homeland Se
curit, 146
U.S. Embassy (Nairobi), 132
U. S. National Institute for Standards
and Technolog, 14
U.S. Navy, II
U. S. State Department Watch Lst,
131-32
Universit of the South, 45-46
US Tdy 124
USS Col 132
Values, 75, 77, 78-80, 8
6
, 92, 95, II5
Vectors, II9-22, 210, 2II, 224f
Vietnam War, 73
Virginia, 93-94 -
"Virtual assembly line," 39, 40
Voices
Parkinsons efects on, 165, 166-67
recogition of 128, 142, 144-45
recognition of by elderly people,
155, 178
See alo Words
Voters, 12, 58, 67-95, 202, 204-5,
207
WA27-28
Warren, Stee, 169-70, 173
Weiner, Jef, II6
Wuson, Timothy, 25
Words
| N 0 k
as basis for machine learning,
59-62, 107
-16, 122, 143, 144,
185, 195
as clues to personality compatibil
ity, 189-0, 192
dementia st)dies' analysis of use
of, 175-79
as matrix of numerica relation-
ships, 108
mining for, in e-mail, 37, 104, 106
mining of, in audio fles, 145
mining of in blogs, 100-II6
mining of, in text messages, 198
Numerati's use of 206-7
sharing, via computers, 9
Workers, 17-40,. 63-64, 97, 106, 150,
202, 204
World War convoys, 30-31
lahoo, 5, 14, 116, 124, 128, 145, 188,
223n
lalovieh (company) , 7678, 83,
85, 89
louTube, 19, 97