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Scottish Independence Referendum and Westminster Voting Intention 10 11 March 2024
Scottish Independence Referendum and Westminster Voting Intention 10 11 March 2024
Their likelihood to vote was then weighted to the subsequent answers they
gave when asked for whom they would vote. The voting intentions of those
who responded ‘5’ were weighted by a factor of 1.0, ‘4’ by a factor of 0.8,
‘3’ by a factor of 0.6, ‘2’ by a factor of 0.4 and ‘1’ by a factor of 0.2. Those
who responded ‘0’ were not asked at all for whom they would vote,
because it was considered that they would not vote.
It is important to note that our turnout weighting does not aim to predict
turnout itself but only aims to marry respondents’ actual enthusiasm for
voting to their stated voting preferences.
Voting Intention: After being asked for their likelihood to vote,
respondents were then asked which party they would be most likely to vote
for if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. The possible
responses "Conservative", "Labour", "Liberal Democrat", "Green",
"Scottish National Party", "Reform UK", "Alba Party", "Other", and
"Don’t know" were then presented in a random order. Our final table
incorporates respondents' likelihood to vote and excludes those who said
they did not know how they would vote.
#VALUE!
If there were to be a General Election in the United Kingdom
tomorrow, for which party would you vote?
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
Total
Gender
Total
Gender
Total
Gender
Total
4 18 12 6 9 2 5 2
2% 5% 6% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1%
3 9 9 4 5 4 1 1
7% 4% 3% 1% 4% 2% 1% 2%
9 6 5 2 7 4 2 2
7% 3% 6% 12% 9% 4% 2% 0%
9 4 9 19 15 10 4 0
19 4 1 0 21 5
1% 10% 5% 36% 9% 1%
5 8 0 2 15 1
1% 0% 0% 0% 14% 1%
5 0 0 0 24 2
2% 0% 0% 0% 33% 3%
7 0 0 0 54 4
For which party did you vote in the 2019 General Election? For which party did you
For which party did you vote in the 2019 General Election? For which party did you
For which party did you vote in the 2019 General Election? For which party did you
354 38 31 12 62 132
320 67 7 3 51 140
1% 6% 0% 10% 6% 71%
3 4 0 0 3 99
18% 46% 0% 0% 41% 11%
56 31 0 0 21 15
3% 39% 3% 0% 3% 3%
10 26 0 0 2 5
71% 0% 3% 29% 40% 1%
226 0 0 1 21 1
3% 10% 92% 9% 7% 0%
11 7 7 0 4 0
2% 0% 3% 42% 2% 14%
6 0 0 1 1 20
0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0%
1 0 0 0 0 0
2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 0 0 0 0 0
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
0 21 4 0 5 16
3% 2% 5% 2% 19% 8%
5 7 3 0 2 15
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15%
0 2 0 0 0 29
0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 30%
0 3 0 0 0 59
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
169 359 27 32 10 92
153 322 43 21 6 71
1% 2% 10% 0% 35% 8%
2 5 4 0 2 6
88% 20% 33% 21% 0% 33%
135 65 14 4 0 24
5% 2% 45% 21% 0% 8%
8 5 19 4 0 6
2% 69% 6% 5% 0% 38%
3 222 3 1 0 27
3% 2% 6% 53% 5% 7%
4 7 3 11 0 5
1% 2% 0% 0% 29% 5%
1 7 0 0 2 3
0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 0%
0 0 0 0 2 0
0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 10 0 0 0 0
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
In a Scottish Parliament election, you are given two votes.
Your first vote will be for a single person to represent your
constituency in the Scottish Parliament. Your second vote will
be a party list vote to elect representatives from your region of
Scotland by a form of proportional representation.
Which party would you vote for in your second (regional list)
vote?
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
In a Scottish Parliament election, you are given two votes.
Your first vote will be for a single person to represent your
constituency in the Scottish Parliament. Your second vote will
be a party list vote to elect representatives from your region of
Scotland by a form of proportional representation.
Which party would you vote for in your second (regional list)
vote?
Gender
Total
Gender
Total
Gender
Total
Gender
Total
15 21 13 9 6 7 11 1
4% 4% 7% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1%
4 6 11 4 5 4 1 2
5% 4% 3% 3% 6% 1% 1% 0%
6 6 4 4 10 2 2 0
7% 3% 7% 10% 8% 4% 2% 2%
9 5 10 15 14 9 4 2
28 8 1 0 22 5
2% 6% 5% 12% 10% 1%
7 5 0 1 17 1
2% 0% 3% 0% 13% 1%
9 0 0 0 22 2
1% 0% 0% 24% 30% 3%
3 0 0 2 50 4
For which party did you vote in the 2019 General Election? For which party did you
For which party did you vote in the 2019 General Election? For which party did you
For which party did you vote in the 2019 General Election? For which party did you
360 40 31 10 85 141
326 68 7 3 63 151
2% 10% 0% 10% 14% 73%
7 7 0 0 9 110
15% 46% 9% 0% 23% 9%
48 31 1 0 15 14
70% 4% 4% 32% 48% 1%
227 3 0 1 30 1
1% 40% 0% 0% 9% 2%
3 27 0 0 5 4
5% 0% 88% 0% 4% 0%
16 0 6 0 2 0
3% 0% 0% 15% 2% 12%
11 0 0 0 1 18
1% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0%
2 0 0 0 0 0
4% 0% 0% 31% 1% 3%
13 0 0 1 1 4
347 40 31 10 78 138
316 68 7 3 61 148
2% 6% 17% 0% 14% 60%
6 4 1 0 9 89
18% 32% 4% 0% 22% 13%
57 22 0 0 13 20
53% 6% 4% 19% 36% 0%
167 4 0 1 22 1
3% 48% 0% 0% 8% 8%
11 32 0 0 5 12
15% 4% 70% 0% 16% 1%
48 3 5 0 9 1
3% 5% 5% 49% 3% 11%
11 3 0 1 2 16
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
1 0 0 0 0 1
5% 0% 0% 31% 1% 5%
15 0 0 1 1 8
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
2 26 11 0 5 22
3% 1% 0% 2% 19% 10%
6 5 0 0 2 19
0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 14%
0 4 0 0 0 27
0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28%
0 2 0 0 0 55
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
Total
Gender
Total
Gender
Total
Gender
Total
7 20 12 6 11 3 3 10
5% 2% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 3%
6 3 2 0 2 3 1 4
3% 2% 6% 2% 4% 0% 0% 1%
4 3 8 3 7 0 0 1
8% 4% 7% 6% 6% 3% 0% 0%
10 6 10 9 10 7 0 0
25 3 0 0 17 0
1% 5% 5% 0% 2% 1%
3 4 0 0 4 1
2% 6% 3% 0% 6% 0%
9 5 0 0 10 0
0% 0% 0% 24% 29% 0%
1 0 0 2 49 0
For which party did you vote in the 2019 General Election? For which party did you
For which party did you vote in the 2019 General Election? For which party did you
For which party did you vote in the 2019 General Election? For which party did you
319 34 31 12 93 149
299 61 8 4 80 161
84% 18% 67% 17% 53% 8%
252 11 5 1 42 12
16% 82% 33% 83% 47% 92%
47 50 2 3 38 148
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
8 24 6 0 3 17
4% 0% 0% 2% 13% 2%
7 2 0 0 2 5
3% 1% 0% 7% 0% 7%
5 4 0 2 0 15
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26%
0 0 0 0 0 51
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
For which party did you vote in the 2021 Holyrood Election (constituency vote)?
Total
Male Female
6% 3% 9%
Don’t know
59 12 47
6% 4% 9%
Don’t know
64 19 45
13 26 21 30 36 32 51 18
10% 9% 11% 1% 5% 2% 1% 2%
12 16 17 1 9 5 3 3
32 61 57 70 89 125 159 66
28 48 33 36 40 35 18 41
16% 5% 9% 7% 3% 3% 2% 4%
19 8 14 11 5 7 4 6
33 13 1 3 38 44
4% 0% 7% 12% 23% 1%
14 0 1 1 38 3
117 47 4 4 38 135
87 22 2 0 49 13
2% 9% 4% 18% 22% 0%
8 7 0 1 37 0
27 34 3 1 2 46
2% 2% 0% 0% 19% 22%
3 8 0 0 2 43
87 102 36 9 8 57
47 86 4 8 0 61