MuMBAI, NEw DELHI, BENGALURU, kOLkATA, CHENNAI, AHMEDABAD, HyDERABAD, CHANDIGARH*, PUNE*, LUCkNOw*
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Think Ahead. Think Growth.
mint primer
What to expect
from the 16th
finance panel
BY GIREESH CHANDRA PRASAD
The government on Sunday named former vice chairman of Niti
Aayog and Columbia University professor Arvind Panagariya as the
chairman of the Sixteenth Finance Commission (SFC), a constitutional
body. Mint takes a look at what to expect from the SFC.
SFC chairman Arvind Panagariya. MINT
What is the role of Why were some states
1 finance commissions?
Finance commissions are
2 unhappy?
Revenue sharing among states is a
independent constitutional controversial subject as resources
bodies with a key role to play are finite. The parameters have to
in the division of the Centre’s net accommodate the interests of all
tax proceeds between Central states while factoring in their
and state governments keeping various stages of development.
in mind the fiscal needs of the When the Fifteenth Finance
states. All central taxes other Commission was set up, one of the
than those meant for states terms of reference was to use the
and the specific surcharges and population data of the 2011 census.
cesses levied by the Centre form Karnataka and Tamil Nadu
part of this divisible pool of tax complained saying that would
revenue. The finance commissions reduce allocations for them as they
decide the extent of the Centre’s had been successful in their
revenue to be shared with the population stabilisation initiatives.
states and the formula for The panel then gave weight to
dividing it among states. The
commission is a key pillar of
population and ‘population
performance’ for an equitable
fiscal federalism. allocation.
PTI
3 What has the Centre asked
the SFC to do?
The Centre has kept the terms of
reference of the SFC short and direct
rather than prescriptive. The panel has
been asked to also suggest ways to
augment the consolidated funds of states
to supplement the resources of local
bodies such as panchayats. In addition, the
SFC may lay down the principles for
grants-in-aid.
What issues does the What does the
4 SFC need to address?
Panagariya is expected to address
5 common man get?
Finance panels tend to
sustainability of debt at the Central recommend a higher share of
and state levels. The Centre devolved funds to states with low
maintains it is on track to achieve per capita income so those states
its target of fiscal deficit below can deliver public goods at levels
4.5% of GDP by FY26, and that comparable to that in other states.
general government debt will It also incentivises the fiscal
decline in the medium to long performance of states, benefiting
term. The SFC is expected to look their citizens. The panel is also
into this as well as revenue trends expected to look into the
and expenditure obligations at the unfinished agenda of GST rate
Central and state levels to make revision of some items that are
recommendations. Another key now on the backburner due to
area that the panel is expected to high inflation. The SFC may also
look into is expenditure reforms at take into account the next central
the state level. pay panel decisions.
MINT PODCASTS
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VOL. 7 NO.
QUICK EDIT
Liquidity
squeeze
Talk has begun of when central
banks around the world will
start lowering interest rates.
Commercial banks in India,
however, have been raising
deposit rates. The Reserve Bank
of India’s (RBI) 2.5 percentage
point hike in its policy rate since
May 2022 to fight inflation has
been slow to reach depositors,
who have only recently begun
to get a better deal in real terms.
The actions of banks are driven
by a liquidity crunch. Cash has
been tight, especially after large
outflows on account of quar-
terly advance tax payments. A
large retail-level switch to other
financial assets has also
deprived banks of deposits. To
meet buoyant credit demand,
banks need to attract more
deposits. With inflation still ele-
vated, RBI has kept liquidity
conditions tight by design;
tighter money is expected to
restrain demand and help cool
price pressures. So, deposit rate
hikes are not out of sync with
the central bank’s policy goal.
Moreover, while the financial
repression of savers may be
acceptable in crisis times like
covid, banking sector normalcy
requires inflation-adjusted pay-
out rates that are clearly posi-
tive. If RBI begins to cut rates,
though, which may happen this
year, complications can arise.
MINT METRIC
by Bibek Debroy
The Chancellor of an university
Towards porn, exhibited a proclivity.
Along with his wife,
He acted in this high life,
But Wisconsin frowned on his depravity.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Globally, the world needs India to
become a reliable challenger to
China’s supply-chain dominance.
That is the great opportunity of
2024. That is what will fuel the
liftoff. Investment is going to
flow into India in
unprecedented volumes.
ANAND MAHINDRA
CHAIRMAN,
MAHINDRA GROUP
BEYOND THE RAISE
As India Inc enters appraisal cycles,
companies are exploring strategies
beyond wage hikes
to retain high per-
formers. Nishchae
Suri, managing
director India for
Cornerstone, dis-
cusses with host
Devina Sengupta on The Working
Life how upskilling can be a crucial
asset for HR in this endeavour.
 PLAIN FACTS

Revival in capex mood,

led by private sector
BY NITI KIRAN

T
he last quarter of 2023 offered further green shoots for the economy with much-awaited signs of revival in the invest-
ment cycle. A total of ₹2.1 trillion worth of new projects were announced during the quarter, up nearly 15% sequentially,
showed data from the project-tracking database of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
While capital expenditure (capex) proposals were sharply down (78%) from a year ago, the latest figure marks a turnaround
after two quarters of steep decline. The data is provisional, and may be updated later. In a welcome shift of trend, private compa-
nies led the way this time, the most notable announcements being JSW Neo Energy’s pumped storage power project in Almora
worth ₹15,000 crore and Welspun New Energy’s green ammonia manufacturing project worth ₹13,860 crore in Odisha.
“New investment proposals continue to be buoyed by expectation of policy continuity at the Centre [after the Lok Sabha
polls], which is the base case assumption,” said Anitha Rangan, an economist at Equirus. “Particularly after the recent state
polls, this view has further cemented, which is positive for the investment cycle.”
Meanwhile, the public sector’s appetite for fresh capex planning continued to shrink. Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist,
Kotak Institutional Equities, said the space for a sustained government capex thrust would be now diminishing as the Centre’s
priority of fiscal consolidation was coming back into focus.

Private sector leads new investment Manufacturing sector leads the

planning in Q3 recovery in capex line-up
Value of new project announcements, quarterly (₹ trillion) Value of new project announcements, by industry (₹ trillion)
16 Government Private Q3 FY23 Q2 FY24 Q3 FY24
Q-o-Q change (year-ago) (previous quarter) (latest quarter)
14
Private sector 62%
6.96
Public sector 61%
12 Manufacturing
Total 15% 0.72
1.39
10
1.32
8 Electricity 0.69
0.37
6
1.21
4
Services
(other than financial) 0.43
0.34
2
1.9
0.01
0.3 Construction
and real estate 0.03
0
Q3 Q3
FY20 FY24 0.04
The numbers for the latest quarter are provisional. Source: CMIE CapEx

Manufacturing Push
HOWEVER, IT was not a broad-based recovery. Almost 65% of the value of new project announcements came from
manufacturing alone. This itself was up 94%, which meant the combined proposals in other segments were down
34%. (However, the value of capex proposals in manufacturing was also down 80% over the year-ago period.)
Projects in the inorganic chemicals space related to green ammonia and green hydrogen cornered nearly a third of
the manufacturing investment plans during the December-ended quarter. These include projects announced by the
Welspun Group, Tata Steel and Sembcorp Green Hydrogen. “Technological shifts around the green energy theme
will also result in specific capex related to the electric vehicle ecosystem, solar and wind energy,” Rangan said.
The construction and real estate space saw a 59% quarter-on-quarter jump and was up over five times on a year-on-
year basis. But other sectors did not follow suit: sectors such as electricity and services (this excludes financial services)
fell over 20% sequentially.
Despite the overall growth, Rakshit warned that domestic private consumption remained on a weak footing, which,
along with a likely gradual slowdown in global demand, could weigh on the private investment cycle.

Project completions continue to

slacken in Q3
Completion Struggles
Value of projects completed in each quarter (₹ trillion) WHILE NEW proposals saw an uptick, completion of existing
3 projects continued to falter. Around ₹1.2 trillion worth of
projects got completed during the December quarter, which is
2.5 lower than the average of ₹1.7 trillion worth of quarterly
completions in 2023. The figure was down close to 15% after a
2 7% contraction in the preceding quarter, and this was the third
1.7 sequential decline. The worth of projects that got completed
1.5
was even lower from the year-ago period—it shrank by 34%.
Going forward, some analysts expect the near-term
1.2 investment outlook to remain patchy with the 2024 election
1
season round the corner as new project approvals could face
halts or delays against the backdrop of the Lok Sabha polls.
0.5
However, structural enablers remain in place: Rangan said
shifts in consumption patterns, technology and global supply
0
Q3 Q3 chains, supported by the possibility of domestic policy
FY20 FY24 continuity, favour long-term growth.
Source: CMIE CapEx
niti.k@livemint.com

DATA REWIND
Data Rewind is an occasional Plain Facts feature that brings you interesting statistics and charts from the yesteryears.
Just 28,060 foreigners Which countries sent the most visitors to India 70 years ago?
visited India during the Number of visitors to India in 1953, by nationality
whole of 1953, a figure
that had grown to over
10 million a year by the
time covid-19 halted
travel in 2020. The UK
7,845 407 533
250 Great Britain
sent more than Canada Holland Germany
one-fourth of them,
followed by the US, with
a 22% share. Pakistan 5,220
was the only other
793
Pakistan
country with more than France
5,000 visitors to India. In 256 669
comparison, in the Switzerland
2010s, Bangladeshis and Japan
Americans formed the 349
biggest group visiting 272 Burma
6,206 Portugal
India, and Canadians,
US
Malaysians and 284 1,903
Australians had reached Italy Ceylon
the top 10 spots.
240
Australia
Source: Ministry of transport
Compiled by Tanay Sukumar

PARAS JAIN/MINT

PEANUTS by Charles M. Schulz

 MUMBAI, NEw DELHI, BENGALURU, kOLkATA, CHENNAI, AHMEDABAD, HYDERABAD, CHANDIGARH*, PUNE*, LUCkNOw* VOL. 7 NO. 2 Rs. 10.00 16 PAGES

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Lessons in economics from Madison’s advisor Norman on

livemint.com the IPL auction uP10 need for agility in ad-tech uP7

SENSEX 72,271.94 31.68 NIFTY 21,741.90 10.5 DOLLAR ₹83.24 ₹0.03 EURO ₹91.98 ₹0.03 OIL $76.66 $0.02 POUND ₹105.94 ₹0.22

SUV allure lifts PV Theobroma owners,

ICICI Venture tap
GST revenue
in Dec slips to
DON’T MISS
MINT

₹1.65 tn, may

sales beyond 4 mn banks for stake sale pick up again
Gireesh Chandra Prasad
Costlier models, pricier inputs lift average vehicle prices by 10% Suneera Tandon, Varuni Khosla gireesh.p@livemint.com
& Ranjani Raghavan NEw DELHI
Vi stock up 28% amid report of
Alisha Sachdev

C
entral and state gov- stake sale to Musk’s Starlink
alisha.sachdev@livemint.com SPORT MODE NEw DELHI/MUMBAI
ernments collected Vodafone Idea Ltd’s stock rose to a 52-week

P
NEw DELHI romoters and investors ₹1,64,882 crore (₹1.65 high on New Year’s Day to ₹18.42, amid news
At ₹11.5 lakh on average, car prices in 2023 were 40% more than they of Theobroma Foods trillion) in goods and services reports claiming that the carrier would sell a

C
onsumers flocked to
sport utility vehicles
(SUVs) to drive passen-
ger vehicle (PV) sales
beyond four million in
2023, a top industry executive said,
as they continued to disengage from
sedans and hatchbacks. This, even as
the vehicles themselves turned cost-
lier by an average of 10% during the
year.
Over two million SUVs were sold
last year, fetching 49% of total sales
compared to 42% in 2022, said Sha-
shank Srivastava, senior executive
director at Maruti Suzuki, the coun-
try’s top carmaker. According to
Srivastava, the average PV carried a
price tag of ₹11.5 lakh in 2023, 40%
more than ₹8.2 lakh in 2019, and
9.5% higher than ₹10.5 lakh in 2022.
Apart from higher production
costs due to costlier inputs and man-
datory safety tech, a higher share of
costlier SUVs and customer prefer-
ence for top models have also been
driving up average purchase prices
in 2023.
A total of 287,904 passenger vehi-
cles were dispatched from factories
to dealerships in December, Srivas-
tava said, the highest ever for the
month, crossing the previous record
of 276,000 units in December 2020.
were just four years ago, even as sales hit record levels. have begun talks with tax (GST) revenue in Decem- 33% stake held by the government to Elon
Average price of a car PV wholesales in Dec 2023, top four firms merchant bankers for a stake ber, a notch below the average Musk’s satellite internet venture Starlink,
(in ₹ lakh) Units Year-on-year change (in %) sale in the 20-year-old patisse- so far this year of ₹1.66 trillion which would lead to a collaboration. >P6
12
11.5 43,470 42,750 35,174 rie chain, people aware of the per month, but still a 10.3%
104,778 development said. jump from a year ago.
While two people said ICICI The Centre and states had Centre earmarks ₹28,100 crore
10 23.7 Venture has decided to sell its collected around ₹1.5 trillion in for PM-AASHA restructuring
entire 42% stake for around December 2022. The government is planning to consolidate
8.2 ₹1,200 crore, a third person The finance ministry said in marquee schemes to safeguard the
8 8.6 10.1 said the chain’s founding fam- Theobroma founder Kainaz a statement that in the April- interests of farmers and consumers, under
ily plans to exit as well. The Messman. December period of this fiscal, the Pradhan Mantri Annadata Aay
Maruti
Suzuki owners expect a valuation of the gross GST collection grew Sanrakshan Abhiyan (PM-AASHA), with an
around ₹2,800 crore for the grown to become a pan-India 12% compared to the year-ago allocation of ₹28,107 crore till 2025-26. >P2
6 Tata Hyundai Mahindra &
2019 2023 Motors Motor India Mahindra company, the people said on chain of patisseries with 194 period to ₹14.97 trillion.
-6.5 Source: Industry estimates, company reports condition of anonymity. stores. The GST receipts in Decem-
Theobroma Foods Pvt. Ltd The promoters and ICICI ber are the lowest since Octo- Flying high: December sets new
48.7% 442,800 287,900 176,500 was founded by former Oberoi Venture have met several mer- ber witnessed a peak of ₹1.72 record with 13.8 mn passengers
SHARE of SUVs RETAIL sales in WHOLESALE VOLUME of Hotels pastry chef Kainaz chant bankers, but are yet to trillion, which was this fiscal’s Domestic air traffic reached a record
in total sales in December 2023 dispatches in inventory as on Messman. Its first pastry store finalize one. A formal sale pro- second highest after a record
2023, up from December 2023 1 January, worth monthly high in December and has
42% in 2022 13 days of stock
opened in Mumbai’s Colaba cess is yet to be launched. ₹1.87 trillion in April. This surpassed pre-covid levels as more people
Causeway in 2004; for long, it “The valuation is steep, but indicates a moderation after in India chose air travel, despite rising fares.
SARVESH KUMAR SHARMA/MINT
operated as a single-outlet, ICICI Venture is confident of businesses replenished supply About 13.8 million passengers travelled by
This was also a 4.4% growth over last wholesales in December, as manu- family-run business. getting around ₹1,200 crore chains in the pre-festive air in December. >P7
year’s dispatches of 275,680 units. facturers tried to clear out stocks ICICI Venture first bought a for its 42% stake given the months, but receipts could see
At Maruti Suzuki, December dis- after three festive months ending significant minority share in strong brand and business a further increase closer to the
patches fell 6.5% to 104,778 units November, by slashing production the food services company in they have built,” one of the two fiscal year end. Barring May RBI issues rules for banks to
from a year earlier, while Tata and offering hefty discounts on 2017, committing about $20 people cited above said on and August, GST receipts have classify unclaimed deposits
Motors’ dispatches rose 8.6% to models with high inventories. million. The funds were allo- condition of anonymity, add- remained above ₹1.6 trillion
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday
43,470, and Mahindra & Mahindra’s Citing data on the government’s cated in two equal tranches, of ing that the transaction may this fiscal. released comprehensive guidelines on the
increased 23.7% to 35,174 . Some Vahan website, Jay Kale, senior vice- which the first tranche was value Theobroma at over After settlement of taxes for measures to be put in place by banks
manufacturers including Toyota and president at Elara Capital, said used to expand the brand to ₹2,800 crore. interstate sales, the central while classifying accounts and deposits
Kia are yet to release their December December retail sales grew at a Delhi-NCR, and expand its However, according to the government collected ₹70,501 as inoperative accounts and unclaimed
numbers. presence in Mumbai and deposits. >P6
Retail sales were higher than TURN TO PAGE 6 Pune. Theobroma has since TURN TO PAGE 4 TURN TO PAGE 6

Shifting trends
Historically, corporate loans have far outstripped aggregate
retail loans from banks, but that changed about three years ago.
Vedanta gets 20-40% ayes for Gaming self-regulation fails
Outstanding bank loans given to (in  trillion)
60

50
Industries Individuals

50.6 bond plan, needs 67% by today to take off, Centre to step in
40 Nehal Chaliawala & Satish John pened to be around New Shouvik Das ties, Chandrasekhar said the
26.8 MUMBAI Year’s Eve.” shouvik.das@livemint.com matter is currently under
30 36.0
The company has assuran- NEw DELHI consideration, and a decision
16.2

V
20
edanta Resources, the ces from around 80% investors may be taken in the coming

T
10 London-based parent that they will vote in favour of he process of setting up weeks.
Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Nov
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 of India’s Vedanta Ltd, the restructuring, said one of self-regulatory bodies On 6 April, Meity notified
Data as of the end of each financial year. The latest data has received between 20% and the people cited above. (SRBs) for the online an amendment to the Infor-
is as of 17 November 2023. Source: RBI
40% investor votes in favour of Only about 3% of the votes gaming industry has hit a mation Technology (Interme-
SATISH KUMAR/MINT
its $3.8 billion bond restruc- logged until Friday have been stalemate, with the Union diary Guidelines and Digital

Retail loans pass turing exercise as of 29

December, people aware of
the matter said.
against the restructuring pro-
posal, improving the com-
pany’s prospects of succeed-
ministry of electronics and
information technology
(Meity) now considering tak-
Media Ethics Code) Rules,
2021, which called for
appointment of SRBs to

₹50 tn, cornering

For the company’s proposal ing. Bankers aware of the mat- ing direct control of the approve entities that would
to go through, more than two- Vedanta Group chairperson ter said the terms of approval mechanism for MoS Rajeev Chandrasekhar be permitted to advertise and
thirds of each bond’s investors Anil Agarwal. PTI restructuring are favourable games and companies hosting says a decision may be taken operate titles to Indian users.
need to vote, of which at least and acceptable to investors, them. in the coming weeks. These bodies, as per the min-

a third of market
REUTERS
two-third votes need to be cast 25% investors for the bonds making it likely that the pro- “There has been no istry’s suggestions at the time,
in favour of the restructuring. maturing in March 2025 and posal will get their nod. progress on the appointment put on the back burner, two were to be involved in regu-
Vedanta had on 13 December April 2026, respectively. Earlier, an ad hoc group of of self-regulatory bodies. We senior officials with knowl- lating games that involve real
Shayan Ghosh took into its fold its parent sought investor approval to The deadline for voting is 2 bondholders had advised fel- received only one application edge of the matter said on money in transactions, and
shayan.g@livemint.com HDFC on 1 July 2023, leading delay the maturity of several of January, after which the com- low investors against backing so far, and we didn’t like it,” condition of anonymity, as three of them were tentatively
MUMBAI to loans of the housing finan- its outstanding corporate pany will meet its bondholders the restructuring exercise. Union minister of state for discussions are still ongoing set to be appointed at the
cier becoming part of the bonds to better manage its on 4 January. One banker said They were seeking to negoti- electronic and information within Meity. time.

O
utstanding retail loans
given by banks tipped
over the ₹50 trillion
milestone for the first time in
November 2023, latest central
bank data showed. This was
aided by demand from indi-
viduals, a push by banks and
the merger between HDFC
Bank and erstwhile mortgage
lender Housing Development
Finance Corp. Ltd (HDFC).
Retail loans grew at an eye-
popping 30% year-on-year
(y-o-y) in November, which
stood at 19% when adjusted for
the merger cited above. In the
same period, loans to industry
banking system. On an out-
standing basis, as on 17
November 2023, the merger
led to an additional ₹5.8 tril-
lion of non-food credit, ₹4.4
trillion of which was in retail
loans, showed data from the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The meteoric rise in retail
loan growth has ensured such
loans corner a larger share in
aggregate non-food credit,
leaving behind corporate
loans. Retail loans now
account for 32.5% (31% if the
HDFC merger is not taken into
account) of non-food credit,
up from 27.3% on 20 Novem-
debt repayment cycle.
For the bonds maturing in
January 2024 and August
2024, the company has
received consent from 20%
and 35% of the bonds’ inves-
tors, respectively. It has also
received consent from 41% and
Shale is keeping the world awash with oil as conflicts abound
Collin Eaton
feedback@livemint,com
that many investors prefer to
wait till the last moment
before casting their votes in
such matters. “The main activ-
ity happens in the last 48
hours,” he said on condition of
anonymity. “Unfortunately for
them, the last 48 hours hap-
and 23%, respectively.
That is largely because of
record production of U.S. fos-
ate better terms with the com-
pany. However, the people
cited above said the partici-
pants of the ad hoc group do
not hold a significant number
of bonds, making it difficult
TURN TO PAGE 6
technology (IT) Rajeev Chan-
drasekhar said in an inter-
view.
A decision to constitute a
group of ministers to oversee
a comprehensive regulatory
framework for the online
gaming industry has also been
One of the officials said that
the decisions were taken
around the third week of
December, following discus-
sions within the Prime Minis-
ter’s Office (PMO).
On whether Meity may take
over regulatory responsibili-
expected to raise consumer
prices for goods that cross the
Red Sea, as hundreds of vessels
However, Mint reported on
5 September that the appoint-
ment of these bodies had hit a
roadblock, with at least three
pitches for SRBs being fielded
by Meity at the time.
TURN TO PAGE 4
panies, deployed more rigs in
late 2022 in response to higher
commodity prices driven by

rose at a sedate 6.6% y-o-y to
cross ₹36 trillion.
Historically, corporate loans
have far outstripped aggregate
retail loans from banks, espe-
cially because of their larger
ticket sizes. That changed
about three years ago when
retail loans surpassed credit to
corporates for the first time on
20 November 2020.
From that date till 17
November 2023, outstanding
retail loans grew at an express
79%, while corporate loans
grew at a more measured 28%.
The current retail numbers
are skewed somewhat by the
HDFC-HDFC Bank merger.
India’s largest private lender
ber 2020.
The change in this balance
in favour of retail loans has
been supported by sluggish
growth in corporate loans, as
companies unsure of large
project commitments focused
instead on smaller capital
expenditure financed by their
own funds.
Experts believe retail loans
will continue to grow. “Loan
growth in secured segments
like housing and auto does not
seem to be a challenge as there
is enough demand backed by
strong income growth. Asset
quality metrics are also hold-
TURN TO PAGE 4
A
surprise surge in
American oil and gas
production and
exports is helping to keep the
world stocked, blunting the
impact of widening conflict in
the Middle East that has
crimped
key ship-
ping lanes.
When
Iranian-backed Houthi mili-
tants began launching missiles
and drones at ships crossing
the Red Sea near Yemen in
October, many feared disrup-
tion to the vital shipping lane
would drive up energy prices.
But oil and gas prices this past
month have sunk about 5%
sil fuels.
Shippers in November
moved more oil out of the U.S.
than what was produced in
Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest
member, at a record 4.5 mil-
lion barrels a day. Likewise,
U.S. exports
of liquefied
natural gas,
or LNG, are
set to hit a record in Decem-
ber, according to market intel-
ligence firm Kpler. European
countries have snapped up
more U.S. cargoes in recent
months, becoming less reliant
on shipments through the
Suez Canal, a key Red Sea
artery.
Many forecasters expected U.S. oil production to grow only
modestly in 2023.
The attacks on vessels,
which the Houthis say are in
retaliation for the Israeli mili-
tary operation in Gaza, have
intensified in recent days. U.S.
officials alleged a Dec. 23
BLOOMBERG
attack drone launched directly
from Iran struck a Japanese-
owned chemical tanker off the
coast of India, though Tehran
denied that claim.
The shipping crisis is
have been forced to reroute
around the Cape of Good Hope
in South Africa. But it is
unfolding just as U.S. frackers
have caught a second wind
that, so far, has countered
inflationary effects in energy.
Many forecasters expected
U.S. oil production to grow
only modestly in 2023 as
frackers responded to investor
pleas for conservative spend-
ing, allowing the companies to
pay off debt and fund divi-
dends and share buybacks.
It isn’t entirely clear how
long shale companies can keep
increasing production at the
same fast clip. Shale drillers,
especially privately held com-
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Much of the production from
the wells they drilled came
online recently, but the U.S.
rig count dropped in 2023 and
drillers have proposed rela-
tively modest budgets for
2024.
At the same time, large pub-
lic shale companies such as
EOG Resources, Devon
Energy and Diamondback
Energy said they have sped up
drilling times and are pump-
ing more oil from wells they
drilled. The scope and dura-
tion of those advances are
unclear.
TURN TO PAGE 6
02 Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai
Same-sex marriage:
CJI refuses to
respond to criticism
PTI
feedback@livemint.com
NEW DELHI
C
hief Justice of India
D.Y. Chandrachud on
Monday refused to
respond to criticism over the
Supreme Court’s unanimous
verdict upholding the abroga-
tion of Article 370 of the Con-
stitution that bestowed special
status on the erstwhile state of
Jammu and Kashmir, saying
tersely the judges decide a case
“according to the Constitution
and the law”.
In an exclusive interview
with PTI, the CJI also spoke
candidly about the five-judge
constitution bench verdict
refusing to legalise same sex
marriages and said the out-
come of a case is never per-
sonal to a judge.
The 50th Chief Justice of
India, however, acknowledged
the “long and hard battle”
queer couples fought for reali-
sation of their rights. On 17
October, a five-judge bench of
the Supreme Court refused to
grant legal recognition to
same-sex marriage but recog-
nised equal rights for queer
people and their protection.
“Once you decide a case you
kind of distance yourself from
the outcome. Outcomes are
never personal to us as a judge.
I never have any regrets. Yes, I
have been in a majority in
many cases and minority in
many cases. But the important
part of the life of a judge is
never to associate yourself
Centre eyes greener use of coal, mines
Rituraj Baruah
rituraj@livemint.com
NEW DELHI
A
s the country moves
towards energy transi-
tion and aims to meet
its ambitious climate targets,
the Union coal ministry is
looking at ensuring lower
environmental pollution with
mechanization of evacuation
processes and using closed
mines for alternate purposes
including solar parks and
other energy projects, along
with increasing the produc-
tion of coal to meet the rising
energy demand.
Environmental sustainabil-
ity would be a key theme of the
government’s ‘Vision 2047’
with the usage of the fuel in
alternate and greener ways
along with making the con-
ventional use of the fuel in a
sustainable way, said a person
aware of the developments.
In terms of making the
operations of coal mines less
polluting, the Centre is look-
ing at mechanizing the coal
evacuation and handling pro-
cedure. It would include
improvement of the first mile
connectivity from the mines
through conveyor belts rather
than manual handling and the
use of trucks and transporta-
m MINT SHORTS
Record 81.8 mn ITRs filed for
AY 2023-24 till 31 December
New Delhi: A record of 81.8 million tax returns have been
filed until 31 December this fiscal against 75.1 million I-T
MINT returns filed at the end of 31
December 2022, the Central
Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT)
said. This is 9% more than the
total income tax returns filed
for 2022-23. The total number
of audit reports and other
forms filed during the time is
1.6 crore.
Ravindra Kumar Tyagi takes
over as Power Grid Corp CMD
New Delhi: State-owned Power Grid Corp. on Monday
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Chief Justice of India
D.Y. Chandrachud.
with a cause. Having decided a
case, I leave it at that,” he said.
On the Supreme Court ver-
dict on Article 370 and its criti-
cism, he said, the judges speak
their mind through their
judgement which becomes a
public property after the pro-
nouncement and people in a
free society can always make
their opinion about it.
“So far as we are concerned
we decide according to the
Constitution and the law. I
don’t think it will be appropri-
ate for me either to respond to
the criticism or mount a
defence to my judgement.
What we have said in my
judgement is reflected in the
reason present in the signed
judgement and I must leave it
at that,” the CJI said.
The CJI said it is very easy to
criticize the process but every
effort is being made by the col-
legium to ensure the due pro-
cess of consultation is followed
before the appointment of
a judge.
The government has set a target of gasifying 100 million tonnes
of coal by 2030 under its National Coal Gasification plan.
tion of coal to the railway their commercial and captive
docks. mines.
“About 90% mechanization
of the coal evacuation and for coal and mines chaired a
handling process is expected meeting with officials of the
to be done with
an expected capi- The government deliberate on the
tal expenditure of will intensify
around ₹30,000 efforts to boost
crore, out of coal gasification
which around
in the country,
₹24,000 crore
would be under the long
invested by Coal term plan
India,” said
another person in
the know of the developments. ner such as coal gasificiation.
The rest of the anticipated Under the long term plan, gov-
capex is expected to come ernment would intensify
from the private sector for efforts to boost coal gasifica-
PTI
ECONOMY & POLICY
Centre earmarks ₹28,100 cr
for PM-AASHA restructuring
Plans to consolidate marquee schemes to safeguard the interests of farmers and consumers
Puja Das
puja.das@livemint.com
NEW DELHI
A
head of the general elec-
tions, the government is
planning to consolidate
PTI
marquee schemes to safe-
guard the interests of farm-
ers and consumers, under the Pradhan
Mantri Annadata Aay Sanrakshan Abhi-
yan (PM-AASHA), with an allocation of
₹28,107 crore till 2025-26, three officials
aware of the matter said.
The plan is to merge the Union Con-
sumer Affairs Department’s Price Stabi-
lisation Fund (PSF) with the agriculture
ministry’s Price Support Scheme (PSS),
and bring the merged scheme under the
PM-AASHA, along with the market
intervention scheme (MIS).
The rationale for the merger is to cost-effectiveness to achieve price stabi- done by agriculture ministry and the
achieve efficiency by removing duplica- lisation”. In January 2023, it was price stabilisation component—non-
tion and get better coverage of farm com- decided to introduce a unified scheme MSP procurement of horticulture com-
modities to ensure prices do not fluctu- for price support and buffer manage- modities for buffer and market inter-
ate. “There is a need for
major institutional correc-
tions to protect interests of
consumers and farmers,” UNDER the plan,
one of the officials said. Price Stabilisation
Fund will be merged
“After expert analysis of with agriculture
domestic and interna- ministry’s PSS
tional experiences, it has
been decided that a single
department will be able to play a better ment, merging PSS and PSF schemes, to ers by making supplies available at rea-
role in price stabilisation. However, some be executed by agriculture ministry.
components of the schemes will remain
with the existing ministries.”
Earlier, Niti Aayog had suggested Stabilisation Scheme (IPS&SS), price pulses, oilseeds and copra by farmers at
“integrated price intervention activities support component—procurement of the mandi and to evolve a balanced price
Last week, Union minister
coal ministry to
roadmap for
2047.
In terms of
greener usage of
coal, the govern-
ment is looking at
promoting utili-
zation of coal in a
sustainable man-
said it has appointed Ravindra Kumar Tyagi as the new
chairman and managing director (CMD). Tyagi will take
over from Sreekant Kandikuppa, who retired after reach-
ing the age of superannuation. Tyagi, 57, holds an electri-
cal engineering degree from Punjab Engineering College
(PEC), Chandigarh and completed MTech in Energy
Studies at IIT Delhi. PTI
India, Pakistan exchange list of
prisoners, nuclear installations
New Delhi: New Delhi and Islamabad exchanged a list of
nuclear installations on 1 January, in line with the Agree-
ment on the Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Instal-
lations and Facilities. The agreement, which was ratified
in 1991, requires both sides to
AFP
share a list of these facilities on
the first of January every
year. The lists have been
exchanged continuously since
the agreement was signed,
regardless of the state of bilat-
eral ties. SHASHANK MATTOO
LIVEMINT.COM
India’s army chief general
structure in the perspective of overall Manoj Pande. AFP
Consolidating schemes needs of the economy, the official said.
The government spent ₹26,338 crore under PSS, PSF, MIS, PDPS and
discounted pulses schemes between FY20 and FY23.
“It has also been proposed to add MIS
to the PM-AASHA basket to ensure India plans
Centre's expenditure (in ₹ crore) remunerative prices to farmers of per-
Price support scheme-market intervention scheme
Price deficiency payment system Discounted pulses
Price stabilisation fund ishable agricultural and horticultural
commodities for which MSP has not
to increase
2019-20
been announced,” the official added.
“PDPS will ensure remunerative price to
farmers of notified oilseeds without
defence
2020-21
2021-22
physical procurement.”
PM-AASHA was launched in Septem- exports to
ber 2018 to ensure minimum support
2022-23* price (MSP) for farmers amid falling crop
production, and soaring food prices. It
Tanzania
2023-24** comprises of Price Deficiency Payment
Scheme (PDPS) and the Private Pro- Shashank Mattoo
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
*Revised estimate; **Budgeted estimate Source: Budget documents
curement and Stockist Scheme (PPSS). shashank.mattoo@livemint.com
Under PM-AASHA, states and Union NEW DELHI
PARAS JAIN/MINT
territories (UTs) can choose either PSS or
I
for better efficiency, coordination, and pulses, oilseeds and copra at MSP will be PDPS for each procurement season of ndia is planning to deepen its
oilseed crops. Pulses and dried coconut defence cooperation with
(copra) are procured under PSS. Only one Tanzania to enhance its stra-
scheme will be operational in a state for tegic presence in the western
one commodity. Besides, states can also part of the Indian Ocean,
vention will be taken care roll out PPSS on a pilot basis in districts or according to persons aware of
NO REPETITION of by the consumer affairs at select APMCs, involving participation the matter.
department to assure of private stockists for oilseeds. Wheat, Besides boosting maritime
THE rationale PM-AASHA ensures remunerative and stable paddy and coarse grains are procured cooperation, New Delhi is look-
behind this merger is
to achieve greater
MSP for farmers
amid falling crop
price environment for under the existing schemes of Depart- ing at defence equipment sales,
efficiency by production, and farmers to increase agri- ment of Food and Public Distribution, particularly in armoured vehi-
removing duplication soaring food prices cultural production and while cotton is procured under existing cles. The initiatives align with
productivity and to safe- schemes of textiles ministry. This ensures India’s broader strategy to aug-
guard interest of consum- higher MSP for farmers, providing ade- ment its presence in the west-
quate returns over the production costs. ern Indian Ocean, a region vital
sonable prices with a low cost of inter- Queries sent to expenditure depart- for its maritime trade routes.
“Under the proposed PSS and PSF mediation,” said a second official. ment, agriculture & farmers’ welfare and India’s army chief general
merger or Integrated Price Support and The aim is to prevent distress sale of consumer affairs and food & public distri- Manoj Pande had met Tanza-
bution ministries remained unanswered nia’s defence minister and sen-
at press time. ior members of its military dur-
ing his October visit to the east
African nation.
“Considering the successful
Revamp of cotton farming to hosting of the Defence Expos
twice in Dar es Salaam on 31
May 2022 and 2 October 2023
tion in the country.
Gasification is the process
help boost production in India which saw participation of sev-
eral Indian defence compa-
nies; both sides expressed
which turns coal into fuel gas, interest in expanding coopera-
considered as a cleaner option Dhirendra Kumar been grown for an extended tion in the area of defence
than burning coal to produce dhirendra.kumar@livemint.com time, insects like pink boll- industry. The two leaders also
energy. The gas produced NEW DELHI worm and whitefly form a expressed pleasure at the
through the process can be complex that infects all cotton progress of cooperation
I
used to produce gaseous fuels n a move aimed at arresting crops grown in those specific between the two sides towards
such as hydrogen, methane, the declining cotton pro- regions, the first official said. the capacity building of the
methanol and ethanol. duction in India, the Union “These insects significantly Tanzanian forces as well as
Most of the coal produced in government plans to promote impact cotton production in industry,” said a joint state-
India goes into feeding ther- the shift of cotton cultivation almost every cotton-growing ment during Tanzanian presi-
mal power plants. With the from disease-infested fields to state. Shifting the crops will dent Samia Suluhu Hassan’s
power sector moving toward disease-free cultivable and undoubtedly increase the visit to India in October.
renewable sources, the use of irrigated areas within Hary- yield,” the official added. India’s concerted efforts to
coal for thermal power gener- ana, Rajasthan, Punjab, Maha- In Haryana and Punjab, the engage with nations in this
ation will come down in the rashtra and Telangana, acreage of cotton has come region, such as Tanzania and
long run. according to two officials. down drastically due to attacks Kenya, underscore shared
A ₹6,000-crore viability gap Shifting of cultivation The plan could double cotton by pests as production fell to 1 security concerns like piracy
funding for gasification pro- means farmers in identified production. BLOOMBERG million bales in 2022-23 from and illegal fishing. The mari-
jects is already in the making disease-free districts will be 2.65 million bales in 2019-20. time collaboration with Tanza-
and waiting for cabinet encouraged to change from tion in 2017-18 was 37 million Similarly, in Punjab, pro- nia, including joint surveillance
approval. Although, the gov- conventional crops to cotton bales (170 kg each) that fell to duction shrank to 4.44 lakh exercises and hydrographic
ernment has set a target of and those in infected areas 33.3 million bales next year. bales (2022-23) from 9.50 lakh surveys, reflects India’s broader
gasifying 100 million tonnes of would be motivated to shift to After growth in 2019-20 (36.5 bales in 2019-20, as stated in geopolitical strategy. The two
coal by 2030 under its other crops. million bales), it slipped to 35.2 the state-wise data on the web- sides held their joint exclusive
National Coal Gasification The plan could double cot- million bales in 2020-21 and site of the textile commis- economic zone surveillance
plan, so far gasification has not ton production to 30 quintal 31.1 million in 2021-22. sioner’s office. exercise in July 2023.
picked up given its capital-in- per acre. This comes in the The Indian Council of Agri- “In the case of Haryana, new The persons cited above
tensive nature and the high- backdrop of cotton area, pro- cultural Research (ICAR), the areas such as Mahendragarh, stated that the number of Tan-
ash content of India coal. duction and productivity reg- research arm of the agricul- Palwal, and Rewari have been zanian defence personnel
Further, repurposing istering a declining cotton ture ministry, is working on a identified for the shifting of trained in India is likely to rise in
decoaled or closed mines is production trend of 31.6 mil- proposal to promote shifting crops from Sirsa, Hisar, Fate- the coming years as New Delhi
being considered under the lion bales in 2023-24 from of cotton cultivation from pink habad, Jind, and others,” the looks to build up the country’s
plan. The government is look- 33.6 million bales in 2022-23. bollworm affected areas to second official said. defence capabilities. Queries
ing at creating water bodies or In recent years, there has fields which are not yet Queries sent to ICAR, min- mailed to the Ministry of Exter-
green energy infrastructure been a sharp decline in ‘white infected by insects like pink istries of agriculture and tex- nal Affairs and the Tanzanian
like solar parks at closed mines gold’ production, as per textile bollworm, and whitefly. tiles remained unanswered till High Commission in New Delhi
to better use these areas. ministry data. Annual produc- In areas where cotton has press time. went unanswered.
Govt procures 25,000 tonnes
Nearly 97.38% ₹2,000 notes
returned to banking system of kharif onion for buffer stock MINT
CORRECTIONS AND
CLARIFICATIONS
MINT New Delhi: The Centre has so Mint welcomes comments,
far procured 25,000 tonnes of suggestions or complaints
onion grown in the 2023 about errors.
kharif season, consumer
Readers can alert the
affairs secretary Rohit Kumar
newsroom to any errors in the
Singh said on Monday. The paper by emailing us, with your
government is procuring full name and address to
onion to maintain a buffer
stock and use it for market intervention to boost domestic
feedback@livemint.com.
availability and keep prices in check. PTI It is our policy to promptly
respond to all complaints.
Readers dissatisfied with the
response or concerned about
New Delhi: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Govt mandates printing of mfg Mint’s journalistic integrity may
Monday said nearly 97.38% of the ₹2,000 bank
notes have been returned to the banking system,
dates on packaged goods write directly to the editor by
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and only about ₹93.3 billion worth of the notes are New Delhi: Printing the ‘date of manufacturing’ and asktheeditor@livemint.com
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the withdrawal of ₹2,000 denomination bank notes commodities from 1 January, according to consumer Conduct that governs our
from circulation. “The ₹2,000 bank notes continue affairs secretary Rohit Kumar Singh. Similarly, the print-
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LIVEMINT.COM DEALS, TECH & STARTUPS Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai 03

nd a
Saudi fund outpaces
LOGISTICS FOR

m MINT SHORTS
NYT lawsuit against OpenAI,
Microsoft is important: minister
New Delhi: Union IT minister of state Rajeev Chandrasekhar
said the NYT-OpenAI-Microsoft case is important and interest-
ing, and represents the broader issue of the nature of a relation-
GIC with big splurge Seasons Greetings
& Happy New Year
ship between those scraping internet and monetizing from it ver-
sus the copyrighted content on the internet. Last Wednesday,
New York Times sued OpenAI and Microsoft over copyright
infringement, alleging that millions of its articles were used with- PIF deployed $31.6 billion in 2023, according to research firm Global SWF
out consent to train chatbots and AI models. PTI

Bloomberg *Data as on 1st December 2023

Maharashtra issues notice to feedback@livemint.com
10666 2507 31239 24x7x365 19.5 MN SQ. FT. 76 814
TCS on ‘forceful transfers’ Days Warehousing Airport

S
Trucks Routes Pincodes Operations Space Connectivity Gateways
MINT
audi Arabia’s Public Investment
Fund emerged as the world’s www.safexpress.com | business@safexpress.com
most active sovereign investor
last year, boosting its deal activity
even as most global peers includ-
ing GIC Pte and Temasek Holdings Pte
slashed spending.
PIF, as the Saudi fund is known,
RBI official calls for
deployed $31.6 billion in 2023, according to
research consultancy Global SWF. That
was higher than the $20.7 billion it invested
norms to harness AI
the previous year, an increase that con-
trasts with a wider trend—globally state- PTI age compliance requirements,
owned investors deployed $124.7 billion, feedback@livemint.com which are routine, for identifi-
Mumbai: Maharashtra government’s labour department about a fifth less than the prior year. cation of patterns in transac-

R
has issued a notice to Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) fol- The declines were led by GIC, which cut eserve Bank of India tions or payments to detect
lowing allegations that the IT firm is forcefully transfer- the amount of capital deployed by 46% to deputy governor M money laundering attempts or
ring more than 2,000 employees without consultation, $19.9 billion and lost its spot as the world’s Rajeshwar Rao has for facilitating cross-border
and has delayed salaries of those who refused to comply most active sovereign wealth fund for the made a case for a supportive transactions and settlements,
with the company’s transfer order. “The Maharashtra state first time in six years. Temasek also regulatory framework to har- he said.
government labour department has now issued a notice reduced new investments by 53% to $6.3 PIF was behind the largest sovereign-backed deals, directly or indirectly. BLOOMBERG ness benefits of Artificial Intel- Some entities have also
regarding the same to the Tata Consultancy Services. billion against a backdrop of volatile mar- ligence (AI) while remaining reported to deploy AI solu-
NITES has received more than 300 complaints that TCS kets, which led the two Singapore-based Qatar took five spots on a list of the top 10 The PIF was behind the largest sover- mindful of its potential tions in customer-facing pro-
has been systematically forcing more than 2,000 employ- investors to report worsening returns. most active funds last year. eign-backed deals of the year, either adverse impacts on the finan- cesses such as for making
ees to transfer to different cities without proper notice or Global SWF said much of GIC’s decline That trend could be set to continue. The directly or through its subsidiaries. cial system. lending decisions or identifi-
consultation, causing immense hardship for them and related to investments across developed governments of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, These include its nearly $5 billion acqui- Speaking at the 106th Annual cation of target customer seg-
their families,” said Nascent Information Technology markets. Singapore’s state investors con- Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain are set to sition of US gaming company Scopley Conference of Indian Eco- ments, he said.Given its trans-
Employees Senate (Nites), a body representing India’s IT tinued to be active in emerging markets control about $4.4 trillion in gross foreign through Savvy Games Group and a $3.6 bil- nomic Association in Delhi on formative nature and poten-
industry employees. DEVINA SENGUPTA like India, with deals including GIC’s $1.4 assets by the end of 2024, two-thirds of lion acquisition of Standard Chartered’s 22 December, Rao said the tial, he said, if realized,
billion joint venture with Brookfield India which will likely be managed by sovereign aviation leasing business through Avilease. emergence of Artificial Intelli- generative AI could have a
REIT and Temasek’s The Saudi fund was also gence, or AI, is also being cited deep impact, on productivity,
Baidu cancels $3.6 bn purchase of increased stake in Manipal RIDING VOlATIlITY behind significant domestic as being in the same league jobs, and income distribution.
Health Enterprises. deals to help support the and proponents of AI sound The advocates of AI expect
JOYY’s China live-streaming unit “Singaporean investors are GlOBAllY, state- ThE declines were TEMASEk also diversification of the economy convinced that it is going to widespread benefits for the
Hong Kong: Baidu has terminated its planned $3.6 billion acqui- being more cautious and owned investors led by GIC, which
deployed about $125 cut the amount of
reduced new
investments by 53%
under a plan by Crown Prince transform the future. economy and society, includ-
sition of Nasdaq-listed JOYY Inc.’s China live-streaming busi- we’ve seen that reflected in bn in 2023, nearly a capital deployed to $6.3 bn amid Mohammed Bin Salman, who In the financial sector, he ing increase in income levels,
ness, the company informed the Hong Kong stock exchange in the numbers,” Global SWF fifth less than in 2022 by 46% volatile markets is also PIF chairman. said, “We are seeing several automation of repetitive tasks,
a filing. The failure of the deal casts a shadow on search engine said. “Gulf sovereign wealth In September, the fund banks and non-banks experi- and obtaining better insights
giant Baidu’s ambition to diversify its revenue. The company pro- funds have increased their acquired the steel business of menting with AI. Global expe- by combining different sets of
posed to acquire JOYY’s video-based entertainment live stream- domination of the global transaction activ- wealth funds, , according a report issued by Sabic Basic Industries Corp. in a $3.3 billion rience, so far, however, sug- information and data that may
ing business in China, known as YY Live, in 2020. Baidu affiliate ity, to the detriment of Singaporean and the Institute of International Finance in deal that helped push PIF’s domestic gests that such deployment is be otherwise difficult for
Moon SPV Ltd terminated its share purchase agreement with Canadian funds, and now represent almost December. investment to around 42% of total deploy- mostly limited to back-office human processing, he said.
JOYY because the conditions of closing the deal it provided for 40% of all investment value deployed by The region is home to a gamut of sovereign ment in 2023. work and optimization of busi- There are others who are more
“had not been fully satisfied” as of the end of 2023, The condi- sovereign investors.” funds, which have become an increasingly “The variety of deals shows the unparal- ness processes to deliver effi- sceptical and point to several
tions included obtaining necessary regulatory approvals from Overall, sovereign wealth funds con- prominent source of cash for international leled bandwidth and reach of PIF and its ciency gains.” societal consequences, includ-
governmental authorities. JOYY is a leading Chinese social live- trolled by the hydrocarbon-rich govern- deals after a surge in energy prices in 2022 left subsidiaries,” Global SWF said in the Some of the banks have also ing increased unemployment,
streaming platform. REUTERS ments of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and most Gulf government budgets in surplus. report. deployed AI solutions to man- he said.

BYD’s record EV sales to challenge Tesla

Bloomberg and concerns it cannot meet
feedback@livemint.com sales targets pummeled the
company’s valuation.

C
hinese automaker BYD
Co. sold 526,409 fully
electric vehicles in the
fourth quarter, meaning Tesla
Inc. will need a record showing
to maintain its No. 1 status when
it unveils sales figures on Tues-
day.
China’s best-selling car
brand reported EV and hybrid
sales of 340,178 in December —
including 190,754 all-electric
cars—aided by aggressive end-
of-year discounting, according
to an exchange filing Monday.
In total, BYD sold 3.01 million
units in 2023.
BYD should find out within
days whether it has sold
enough cars to overtake Tesla
for the first time on a quarterly
basis to become the world’s
biggest seller of fully electric
EVs.
Analysts tracking Elon
Musk’s Tesla expect it to shift
around 483,200 units, accord-
ing to estimates compiled by
Bloomberg.
A revamped Model 3 and the
stainless steel-clad Cybertruck,
which began deliveries at the
Despite starting an industry
price war in China, Tesla shares
rose 130% last year.
BYD continued its aggres-
sive global expansion plans in
the past 12 months, recently
picking Hungary over other
European countries to establish
its first production line on the
continent.
The plant in the southern
city of Szeged will produce EVs
and plug-in hybrids for the
In total, BYD sold 3.01 million cars in 2023. BLOOMBERG European market and create
thousands of jobs.
end of November, may give ous five years combined. The announcement came
Tesla’s full year 1.8 million sales The Shenzhen-based com- despite an ongoing EU anti-
target a late boost. pany, that had a target of nearly subsidy investigation into Chi-
The US auto- 3 million annual nese EVs.
maker Tesla has Analysts tracking sales, saw rapid China’s 2023 new-energy
also been gradu- Tesla expect it to growth in 2023 vehicle retail sales are expected
ally adjusting shift around that catapulted it to rise 36.5% year-on-year to
sticker costs in 483,200 units, into the top 10 about 7.75 million units, the
the US and China, ranking of global nation’s Passenger Car Associa-
according to
where it initiated car sales for the tion said in preliminary esti-
a price war in late estimates by first time. mates released in December.
2022 that Bloomberg BYD shares fell Reuters adds:
extended into almost 24% in The Shenzhen-based auto-
2023. 2023, with an maker, BYD Co., said it sold
BYD’s full-year volumes accelerated decline in the stock about 1.6 million battery EVs as
were almost as much as its EV since mid-November as com- well as about 1.4 million plug-in
and hybrid sales over the previ- petitive pressures, price cuts, hybrid EVs.

Have fun with facts

on Sundays
Catch the latest column of
A A quiz on the week’s development.

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04 Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai MARK TO MARKET LIVEMINT.COM

S&P BSE Sensex Nifty 50 Nifty 500 Nifty Next 50 Nifty 100 S&P BSE Mid-cap S&P BSE Small Cap
CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE CLOSE PERCENT CHANGE

72,271.94 0.04 21,741.90 0.05 19,469.50 0.21 53,409.80 0.12 21,934.70 0.07 37,036.77 0.54 42,986.53 0.73
PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN PREVIOUS CLOSE OPEN

72,240.26 72,218.39 21,731.40 21,727.75 19,429.15 19,452.00 53,344.80 53,551.60 21,918.80 21,928.70 36,839.22 37,020.08 42,673.76 42,854.34
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

72,561.91 72,031.23 21,834.35 21,680.85 19,543.25 19,421.40 53,648.95 53,297.90 22,026.20 21,877.30 37,171.97 36,922.78 43,094.79 42,834.11

m MINT SHORTS
South Korea exports rise as
Beware market’s optimism bias
shipments to US overtake China Harsha Jethmalani
Potential pitfalls Worrying sign? come of the general election is tricky. disappoint. “China is slowing down.
South Korean exports continued to grow last month, harsha.j@htlive.com
Global fund managers foresee a slew of The Nifty50 index and VIX have risen
“An analysis of the past five general This can be a double-edge sword for
helped by rising demand from the US that overtook risks for equity markets simultaneously in the past six months, elections (which are more relevant other developing countries. While on

China as the biggest market for the first time in two dec-
ades. The value of global shipments adjusted for work-
ing-day differences increased 14.5% from a year earlier,
according to data released Monday by the trade ministry.
Headline exports rose 5.1%, compared with economists’
forecasts for a 3.7% increase. Overall imports declined by
10.8%, resulting in a trade surplus of $4.5 billion. In a sign
of closer ties with Washington and Beijing’s economic
challenges, South Korea sold $11.3 billion in goods to the
US compared with $10.9 billion to China in December.
Still, one month’s data doesn’t offer conclusive proof of
an enduring shift in trading patterns. China remains
South Korea’s biggest trading partner by a large margin
given the scale of Seoul’s imports from the world’s sec-
ond-largest economy. BLOOMBERG
I
t’s a new year and there are new
hopes. Will 2024 bring new highs
for the stock markets? Towards the
fag end of December, key bench-
mark indices, the Nifty50 and S&P
BSE Sensex, scaled new peaks. This was
driven by positive domestic as well as
global news flow.
For one, Reserve Bank of India raised
its gross domestic product growth fore-
cast for FY2024 to 7% from 6.5% after
September-quarter (Q2FY24) growth
came in better than expected. Anticipa-
tion of interest rate cuts by the US Fed-
eral Reserve also fuelled sentiments. As
such, liquidity influx by both domestic
and foreign institutional investors into
Indian stocks has been robust.
Amid the optimism, the fear gauge or
the NSE volatility index (VIX) has risen
by 36% in the last six months. Theoreti-
cally, the movements in VIX and bench-
mark indices are inversely related. Sim-
ply put, this means that the Street is cur-
rently fixated on positives, turning a
blind eye towards potential threats.
This is despite India’s expensive valu-
ations. The MSCI India index is trading
at a one-year forward multiple of nearly
which is unusual given incumbent governments have one hand, countries like India are gain-
Number of respondents (in %)
NSE VIX Nifty 50 served full 5-year terms), indicates that ing from China+1 strategy, a slowdown
Global recession/hard landing
150
markets approach the elections with in any major economy does have a col-
32 135.93 optimism. Nifty index rose an average lateral negative impact on the rest of the
13% over the 6-month period leading up world,” BOB Capital Markets said.
High inflation keeps central banks hawkish 140
to the elections,” Standard Chartered Back home, the trajectory of corpo-
27 said in a report. This can be rate earnings growth and
Geopolitics worsens 130 attributed to a pick up in BRIGHTER revival of rural demand are
pre-election spending and SIDE key for the consumption
17 populist measures, both of theme. Analysts, however,
120
Systemic credit event (government/corporate) which help consumption LIQUIDITY influx by are of the view that election-
9
demand. Although, unless both domestic and
FIIs into Indian
related developments can
110 the actual event of the 2024 stocks has been overshadow India Inc’s
US election 113.30 general election is out of robust Q4FY24 and Q1FY25 per-
7 100
way, a potential event risk formances. Further, a resur-
remains. “History shows A pick-up in pre-poll gence of covid cases leading
China banking crisis spending and
that election outcomes can populist measures to restricted economic acti-
4 90
30 June 2023 01 January 2024 be unpredictable as senti- are positives for vity would be undesirable.
ments can swing through- demand “In our view, it would be
Source: December BofA Global Fund Manager Survey Values rebased to 100 Source: Bloomberg
out the campaign season,” best to enter 2024 with low
PRANAY BHARDWAJ/MINT
Standard Chartered said. return expectations from
22 times, a glaring premium to the MSCI of the Bharatiya Janata Party, which In 2024, US too will have general the market,” Kotak Institutional Equi-
Asia Ex-Japan and MSCI EM Index, administers the Union government. It election, the outcome of which tends to ties said in a 27 December report. The
show Bloomberg data—leaving no room has soothed investors’ worries about have global repercussions. Despite the brokerage says the market may ignore
for disappointment. Particular hotspots policy and administrative uncertainty as global liquidity scenario turning sup- the fact that valuations of most stocks
are pricey Indian midcap and smallcap the market braces for the general elec- portive, an unexpected outcome could are well above their pre-pandemic lev-
stocks, which beat large caps in 2023. tion this year. But despite increased be a dampener. Plus, geopolitical con- els, while interest rates are likely to be
Another positive factor was the out- investor confidence about continued flicts are not completely out of the way. higher versus pre-pandemic levels even
come of recent state elections in favour political stability, predicting the out- Chinese economic growth can also after potential rate cuts in 2024-25.

Overseas investors net bought government bonds worth

₹350 billion from October to December. MINT RR Kabel to ride on industry tailwinds, export opportunity
Foreign inflows into Indian Dipti Sharma is up more than 50% from its in exports, contributing about and volatility in prices of key
Wired well
bonds spike to 6-year high dipti.sharma@livemint.com issue price of ₹1,035 apiece. RR Kabel's key wires & cables business is poised to see good revenue
28% of overall revenue in raw materials such as copper
Foreign investment in Indian government bonds saw a Sure, the company’s robust growth in FY24 H1FY24. The company is seeing and aluminium, could put a

T
remarkable jump in the last three months of 2023, with he wires & cables (W&C) September quarter (Q2FY24) Wires & cables revenue (in  crore) Year-on-year growth (in %) (right-hand scale) good demand in export markets strain on RR’s profitability.
JPMorgan’s decision to add the debt to its indexes boost- industry is thriving on the profitability released during 7,500 80 and expects good growth in the Moreover, the FMEG busi-
ing inflows to a six-year high. Overseas investors net government’s thrust on this time helped the stock. near term. ness clocked about 20% year-
bought government bonds worth ₹350 billion ($4.2 bil- infrastructure and rural electri- Ebitda margin rose by 44 basis 6,000 60 As of FY23, RR had a 9% share on-year revenue growth in H1
lion) in October-December, pushing the full-year tally to fication, along with growth in points sequentially to 7.5% in 4,500 40
in the export market. According helped by contribution from
₹598 billion, the highest since 2017, clearing house data commercial and residential sec- Q2 helped by the better volume to Sahay, RR exports a large Luminous Power’s home elec-
showed. Fund managers expect more inflows in the New tors, 5G rollout, and digitiza- performance of W&C business, 3,000 20 quantity of cables, which com- trical business that was
Year. “We are positive on India into 2024 and also expect tion. Increasing demand from which formed 90% of gross seg- mand high margins. So, RR acquired in May 2022, but the
1,500 0
inflows into the local currency asset class,” Jean-Charles consumers to upgrade or ment revenue. The rest comes doubling its power cable capac- segment is incurring losses due
Sambor, head, emerging markets, Fixed Income at BNP replace existing products is an from the fast-moving electrical 0 -20
ity makes sense. to higher fixed cost and lower
Paribas Asset Management, said. India’s inflation should added bonus. goods (FMEG) segment. FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 estimate RR’s shares now trade at 40 capacity utilization.
Source: Company, Prabhudas Lilladher
be contained and fiscal risks well-controlled, and this, In this backdrop, shares of “In the W&C segment, RR times FY25 estimated earnings, The general weakness in con-
PRANAY BHARDWAJ/MINT
along with rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, could push W&C companies have put up a has maintained a healthy vol- which looks pricey. Hereon, sumption has weighed on the
the 10-year benchmark bond yield to below 7%, Sambor good show on the bourses. The ume growth guidance at 15-20% to improve margins,” noted revenue, Ebitda, and net profit investors should observe FMEG segment.
said. In September, JPMorgan announced it will include stock of RR Kabel Ltd (RR), a and expects 10% margin in the Praveen Sahay, a Prabhudas Lil- compounding annually at demand trends in end user If FMEG performance starts
some Indian bonds in the Government Bond Index-In- major player in the segment near term, given strong demand ladher analyst. 21.7%, 41% and 46%. industries like real estate. improving, investors are likely
dex-Emerging Markets. REUTERS which listed on 20 September, outlook in sectors and measures Over FY23-FY26, he sees RR has also got a strong hold Besides, intense competition to allocate brownie points.

Mark to Market writers do not have positions in the companies they have discussed here

Retail loans pass Theobroma in stake sale talks Gaming self-regulation fails
₹50 trillion, gain FROM PAGE 1
to take off, Centre to step in
Mohali, Chennai, Surat, tion of food aggregators as well
Nashik, Jaipur and Nagpur as as greater demand for such ser-
third person, a deal could take well. The company sells vices in smaller markets,
a third of market six to nine months to con-
clude. “The transaction is still
some time away as the com-
brownies, crackers, cookies, changing food consumption
pastries and sandwiches. habits, favourable demograph-
According to industry esti- ics and growing aspirations.
FROM PAGE 1

Three people with knowl-

FROM PAGE 1
ing up,” said Jindal Haria,
co-founder, GreenEdge
Wealth Services, an invest-
ment advisory firm.
He added that there are
some concerns in small-value
unsecured personal loans, a
segment where people who
would not have otherwise got
quick loans owing to risk filters
have been easily getting credit
owing to a surge in availability.
“That said, such segments are
always riskier, and unsecured
retail loans could see a decline
of 200-300 basis points in
terms of credit growth, which
is not a lot if you look at its
share in aggregate banking
sector loans,” he said.
A basis point is one-hun-
dredth of a percentage point.
In November, RBI raised
risk weights on unsecured
loans to consumers by banks
and non-banks, and bank
loans to non-banks, for
The HDFC-HDFC Bank merger
has skewed the current retail
loans numbers somewhat. MINT
The overall outlook for bank
credit offtake remains positive
for this fiscal, “supported by
factors such as economic
expansion and a continued
push for retail credit, which
has been supported by
improving digitalization,”
Care Ratings said in a note on
18 December. It cautioned that
pany’s FY24 financials are
awaited. The process has
entered exit mode, but they
have not yet pressed the exit
button,” this person added.
The second person said
other private equity firms may
look to snap up ICICI Ven-
ture’s stake in the patisserie
chain.
Spokespersons for both
ICICI Venture and Theo-
broma did not comment.
Until the covid pandemic,
Theobroma had about 50 out-
lets, primarily across Mumbai
and Delhi; since then, it has
opened shop in Pune, Hydera-
bad, Bengaluru, Chandigarh-
Blue-chip stocks end with minor gains on first day of 2024
Reuters
feedback@livemint.com
any illegal betting app that is
reported to us. However, how
do we allow a much clearer
mates, India is the world’s According to data sourced edge of the matter said at the framework for this process?
ninth-largest from business time that the IT ministry was We’d decided to give this to
food service mar- ICICI Venture intelligence plat- reluctant to proceed with any an SRB. But we don’t want an
ket with a size of first bought form Tofler, The- of the applicants, owing to SRB to be hijacked by the
$51 billion in a significant obroma Foods significant affiliation of each industry. We haven’t decided
FY23. Over the minority share in reported a stan- of the applicants with specific yet that we would abrogate
past decade, the dalone net profit companies in the online gam- the power to determine per-
Theobroma in
Indian food servi- of ₹19.59 crore in ing industry. missibility that we’d given to
ces market has 2017, committing FY23, against a On potential conflict of SRBs, and give it to Meity to
grown at a com- about $20 million net loss of ₹11 interest, Chandrasekhar said, The appointment of SRBs for do it instead. But, we’re con-
pound annual crore in FY22. “We’ve been very clear that online gaming has hit a sidering it at the moment,” he
growth rate of Revenue from we didn’t want (the SRBs) to roadblock. HT said.
9%. However, organized operations rose from ₹254.74 be industry-dominated. We The initial idea of an SRB
chains account for only 9% of crore in FY22 to ₹351.67 crore won’t dilute the basic princi- tentative right now, the min- was seen to be a positive
this market. Among this, fast in FY23. ples. We may consider that ister added. move, which could have
food chains account for 50%. ICICI Venture is the alterna- the government gives itself “We are anyway doing our legally certified certain online
However, demand for res- tive investment arm of ICICI the power to determine per- job by taking down whatever gaming firms to advertise on
taurant-style food has seen an Bank. missibility in online gaming.” is not permissible. Therefore, social media intermediary
uptick helped by the prolifera- suneera.t@htlive.com Discussions, however, are we’re immediately banning platforms in the country.
“Profit booking was visible lysts said, could be temporary trend, PTI adds.
at higher levels as lingering as valuations are still reasona- In the broader market, the
concerns over Red Sea disrup- ble compared to other sectors BSE smallcap gauge climbed

onward lending.
“While the present delin-
quencies are within range, the
sharp rise in the share of retail
loans (from about a quarter of
all loans in FY19 to about one-
third in November 2023) in
banks along with limited visi-
bility on end use led to regula-
tors increasing the risk
weights on unsecured advan-
ces and also nudging lenders
to be cautious on this expo-
sure,” said Prakash Agarwal, a
partner at financial consult-
ancy Virtuous Solutions and
Resources.
I
elevated interest rates, any
further rise in the repo rate,
inflation and global uncertain-
ties regarding geopolitical
issues are other key factors
that could weigh on credit
growth.
Some economists expect
RBI to start lowering the repo
rate this calendar year. The
central bank has been stead-
fast in reiterating its commit-
ment to restricting inflation to
4% and looking for durable
signs of softening price rise.
Retail inflation stood at 5.55%
in November.
ndian blue-chip stocks
ended with small gains on
Monday as investors booked
profits late in the session after
the benchmarks extended
their record rally into the first
day of 2024.
The blue-chip NSE Nifty 50
settled 0.05% higher at
21,741.90 points, and the S&P
BSE Sensex added 0.04% to
72,271.94.
Both indexes had risen
about 0.5% each to record
highs in the afternoon session,
before surrendering gains in
the closing minutes.
tions pose short-term risks to despite the recent rally. Auto 0.73% and midcap index
global supply chains and stocks weighed, advanced 0.54%.
freight costs,” said Vinod Nair, with Eicher The IT index rose Among indices,
head of research at Geojit Motors, Bajaj 0.51%, with energy jumped
Financial Services. Auto falling HCLTech and Tech 0.82%, telecom-
The Nifty and Sensex scaled between 1.4% and Mahindra major munication
fresh highs for most of the ses- 2.6%. While they climbed 0.76%,
drivers.The
sions in December, aided by reported higher services (0.73 %),
better-than-expected eco- monthly auto bank index commodities
nomic growth, the return of The blue-chip NSE Nifty 50 settled 0.05% higher at 21,741.90 sales, a tax penalty dropped 0.1% (0.59%), oil & gas
foreign investors and growing points. MINT notice weighed (0.64%) and indus-
expectations of a US interest on the stocks. trials (0.35%).
rate cut as soon as March. Mahindra the major drivers. sions in a row, from record- Momentum in mid and Asian and European mar-
Nine of the 13 major sectors The heavy-weight bank high levels, and analysts small caps remained strong, kets were closed on Monday
logged gains on the day. index and financials dropped expected them to trade in a buoyed by a positive macro- for the New Year. The US mar-
The IT index rose 0.51%, 0.1%, each. narrow range. outlook but private sector kets ended marginally lower
with HCLTech and Tech They have fallen for two ses- The drop in financials, ana- banks experienced a reversal on Friday.
LIVEMINT.COM
BHARAT BANKS ON BANDHAN BANK
Rohan Kochhar
T
he journey from sweeping
his father's sweet shop to the
banking high table is arduous if
not impossible. Private sector bankers
are supposed to be well-heeled, with
a facility with the Queen’s language,
go on an annual pilgrimage to Davos,
spend weekends playing golf and be a
part of the Mumbai high society.
Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, Managing
Director & Chief Executive Officer of
Bandhan Bank is the odd one out and
a harbinger of change. He understands
and speaks the language of the poor. He
has learned by working tirelessly in the
microfinance and development spaces
for the last 30 years.
While granting bank licences in
2014, the regulator was looking at the
inclusive growth of India and the policy
clarion call was “Sabka Saath, Sabka
Vikas” his skill set was invaluable. A
combination of that and the blessings of
the poor of India put him in the banking
high chair and he has performed the
role remarkably well.
He has been instrumental in
establishing a bank catering to India’s
vast landscape, with emphasis on
women and livelihood-linked lending.
Bandhan Bank has grown organically
since receiving the universal banking
licence from the RBI and starting
operations on 23 August 2015.
It became the first-ever MFI to become
a universal bank in India. Ghosh made
sure that as an MFI, Bandhan furnished
the necessary operational information,
facts and figures to the RBI on a periodical
basis, though they were not required
to do so statutorily – good corporate
governance and transparency are at the
core of his ethics and he has built an
institution that has imbibed just that.
Bandhan Bank getting the banking
licence is an excellent example of
development banking by the RBI and
government’s commitment to bridge
the lending gap. Bandhan has the
expertise of working with the poor, and,
therefore, the inherent ability to make
rural banking a success story. This has
been appreciated by the establishment
and giving Bandhan a banking license
was a significant step forward towards
financial inclusion and deepening. It’s
indicative of the government’s renewed
focus on the rural economy by ensuring
greater outreach of the banking sector
to Bharat’s vast hinterland.
Bandhan extends its services not only
to the affluent top 10% but also to the
economically underserved population,
encompassing both the rich and the poor.
This shift doesn’t just hold a symbolic
significance but ensures greater infusion
and deepening of financial services. The
government is willing to take bold and
unprecedented steps to meet the ideals
of the inclusive philosophy of Prime
Minister Narendra Modi—Sabka Saath,
Sabka Vikas, and Sabka Vishwas.
Bandhan has done well under the
leadership of Ghosh and has proved
sceptics wrong. During the quarter ending
30 September 2023, the bank added
nearly 10 lakh customers with the total
number of customers standing at ₹3.17
crore. Banking outlets stand at more than
6,200 and the network consists of 1,621
branches and 4,598 banking units. Most
of its customers are women. Bandhan
employs 74,000 persons.
The bank has mobilised deposits of
₹1.12 lakh crore and its total advances
stand at ₹1.08 lakh crore as of 30
September 2023. It is fast growing in
its reach and changing the lives of the
poorest of the poor by helping them tap
their entrepreneurial potential.
Since 2014, the focus on inclusive growth has been intense. Direct Benefit Transfers to sharply focused
beneficiaries on the one hand and job generative, spatially dispersed, equitable and sustainable growth on the
other have been the cornerstone of policy. How exactly is this panning out at the last mile? SKOCH Group is
visiting the hinterland and documenting case studies of people at the margins and what has changed for them
and how? One such research is a deep dive into the impact of Bandhan Bank, the first bank in India to
create an institution catering to livelihoods and credit, bottom up.
Ramdev Pandit
R
amdev Pandit lives in Kolkata and
used to run a small grocery shop,
which shut down because of financial
constraints. He had a bit of knowledge of
leather chemicals and he and his wife took
their first loan of ₹30,000 and starting
trading leather chemicals. It turned out
to be quite remunerative and he soon
set up a shop with a storing facility. He
chose to pay the bank on a weekly basis.
Soon his exposure with bank increased
to one lakh and then to two lakh rupees.
He employs two workers and pays
about ₹15,000 as monthly wages each
and also takes care of their medical
expenses. “I am soon going to pay back
the current loan and looking to raise
₹300,000 to help expand my business,”
says Ramdev.
Kajol Patra
K
ajol Patra in Kalyani, Nadia is in
the business of making and selling
Puchkas (Pani Puri). Earlier, her family
was involved in the business of selling
fish, which hardly provided sustenance
info@skoch.in skochgroup
CHANDRA SHEKHAR GHOSH
EXPERIENCE MEETS ASPIRATION
There are many success stories to
bank’s credit. Gita Pal in Duttapukur,
North 24 Parganas acquired pottery
making skills that inspired her to start
her own venture. Bandhan supported
her with ₹20,000 about six years ago.
This enabled her to procure the raw
leaving no room for savings. Bandhan
encouraged her to start her own
enterprise of making and selling
Puchka. What started as a small loan of
₹10,000 has grown to ₹110,000 today.
Puchka business has given her sound
financial standing and she leads a life
of dignity. She operates a number of
outlets in her village that has inspired
many other women to follow suit.
Alpana Das
A t the time of her marriage, her
husband used to drive a cab. His
earnings were not sufficient to run the
household as it was a joint family.
Since she knew tailoring, Bandhan
encouraged her to start a tailoring
shop and offered a loan. This worked
as a seed capital for Alpana’s small
venture. It grew over a period of
time. Her husband also joined her to
support her business. She employed
fourteen tailors to meet the increasing
demand. While each worker earns
about ₹17,000 per month; Alpana’s
personal monthly income has reached
₹1.5 lakh. She is a repeat customer
for Bandhan. With enhanced income,
she has bought the tailoring shop and
also purchased her own house just
opposite the shop. It is a testament of
successful business, which she owes
to Bandhan bank and its continued
support.
skochgroup
CONVERSATION WITH
WATCH FULL EPISODE AT
material and the necessary wherewithal
to set up her pottery unit. Within a few
years, her revenue multiplied to ₹20
lakh per annum and she also employed
twelve skilled workers. She annually
makes a profit of about ₹5 lakhs and
is aspiring to expand her business.
Babita Mahanty
B abita Mahanty, Topsia, Kolkata
ran a thatched tea stall for years
till one day when she learnt about
Bandhan’s loan facility. This was a
turning point in her life. With the help
received from the bank, she started
a small restaurant and invested in
buying utensils, gas, furniture etc.
Her monthly earnings are upwards of
₹50,000 and also she is supporting her
son who is studying CA. Recently,
Babita opened one more restaurant
and manages these with support of her
husband. It’s a story of transformation
from a tea stall to a thriving food
business and growing.
Gayatri Rajbanshi
S oon after her marriage, Gayatri
Rajbanshi’s husband lost his job and
was doing menial work. Gayatri lives in
Nadia and has always been enterprising,
so she approached Bandhan Bank for
loan and got an approval of ₹3,000 to
start with. She along with her husband
set up steel furniture making unit.
skochtv @skochgroup
Tuesday, 2 January 2024
In Conversation with Rohan Kochhar
RATINGS
I N D I A’S H O N E S T I N D E P E N D E N T A S S E S S M E N T
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Bandhan continues to lend her.
Dolly Biswas from Hooghly was
working in a factory but was not earning
enough. Finally, she started a rakhi-
making unit of her own with some
women, a project financed by Bandhan
Bank. She did phenomenally well and,
This paved the way for subsequent
borrowing that has reached ₹1,30,000.
She and her husband make about 30
pieces of various furniture including
almirahs, TV cabinets, racks etc.
Their earnings have increased to about
₹60,000 per month. With Bandhan’s
support, her life has been transformed
and she manages to provide quality
education to both her children.
Ahmed Reza Mufti
A hmed’s family has been in shirt
making business for generations. He
inherited the skill from his grandfather.
But of late, due to increased competition,
the business started shrinking and in
order to survive, he was in need of
capital. Bandhan Bank came forward
and pitched in with initial loan and soon
Ahmed became a repeat customer for
the bank. He invested in a full-fledged
facility with two fully automatic sewing
machines and a number of other electric
peripherals that have enhanced his
daily output. His fortunes have changed
and he sells his produce under the
brand name Sparky and supplies to the
retailers – each shirt fetches him a profit
of ₹50. He personally participates in a
weekly Haat and retails his shirts that
fetch him higher profit. His net profit in
a month totals to upwards of ₹50,000.
He attributes his success to the ongoing
support by Bandhan Bank.
@skochsameer
MuMbai 05
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Last Date: 15th January 2024
in the process, employed many women
in distress. Her factory now makes 3
million rakhis a year that are sold all
over the country. “Loan from Bandhan
feels like seeking financial help from
the family,” says Biswas.
Ghosh calls his mother the ‘CFO’ of
the family for managing the household
adroitly despite all the odds pitched
against the family. Women inherently
are good managers. He addresses
women as Maa or Didi–that’s mother
and sister in Bengali. Women should
partner in the development effort of
the nation. The entrepreneurial women
are happy. “They don’t have to ask for
money from the husband. They can
meet the children's demands from their
income. They are energised. They are
successful entrepreneurs. It gives me
immense satisfaction and joy,” says an
emotional Ghosh.
In the early days, working for an
NGO, Ghosh, gained insights into
working in the rural economy and
that many farmers practise subsistence
agriculture. In the lean months between
crops, there’s little to do and hardly
any income but many mouths to feed
the family. In desperation, the farmers
and tillers sold their labour in the lean
months for a pittance to work during
the busy season to ensure the cash flow.
Money lenders would charge exorbitant
interest rates. Farmers were trapped in
an insurmountable debt.
Many seemed to have reconciled with
the grim reality as given. Not Ghosh.
He saw an opportunity in the adversity.
He founded Bandhan microfinance in
2001, a not-for-profit enterprise to create
sustainable livelihood by way of financial
inclusion and women empowerment.
Bandhan has saved lakhs of farmers from
the clutches of exploitative moneylenders
and improved their material well-being.
Ghosh is a competent banker,
operating with a high degree
of emotional quotient. His life
experiences, witnessing the plight of
the poor and their constant struggle to
make ends meet, motivated him to be
a change agent. After all, unreasonable,
unrealistic and impractical are all words
used to marginalise a person or an idea
that doesn’t conform to conventionally
expected standards. Ghosh has done
well, and so has Bandhan Bank.
Rohan Kochhar is an
Advocate, an Economist
and a Public Policy
Expert. He passionately
works on socio-economic
development issues.
06 Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai CORPORATE LIVEMINT.COM

RBI issues rules for Vi stock up 28% amid report

banks to classify
unclaimed deposits of govt stake sale to Starlink
Gopika Gopakumar
gopika.g@htlive.com
MuMbaI
Sebi has sought a clarification from the telecom services provider on the development
T
he Reserve Bank of India The restructuring aims to
on Monday released reduce Vedanta’s immediate
comprehensive guide- Ram Sahgal & Gulveen Aulakh debt load. BLOOMBERG
lines on the measures to be put MuMbaI/new delhI
in place by banks while classify-
Vedanta gets
V
ing accounts and deposits as odafone Idea Ltd’s stock rose
inoperative accounts and to a 52-week high on New
unclaimed deposits.
This includes periodic
Year’s Day to ₹18.42, amid
news reports claiming that
20-40%
review of such accounts and
deposits, measures to prevent Deadline for ‘100 Days 100 Pays’
fraud in such accounts/depos- has been extended to 1 April.MINT
the government could sell its
33% stake in Vodafone Idea to tech-bil-
lionaire Elon Musk and his satellite inter-
yes votes for
its, grievance redressal mecha-
nism for expeditious resolution unclaimed,” it said.
net venture Starlink collaborating with
the carrier. Securities and Exchange its bond
of complaints, steps to be taken RBI also said banks shall not Board of India (Sebi) sought a clarification
for tracing the customers of classify zero balance accounts
inoperative accounts including as ‘inoperative’ if it remains
from India’s third-largest telecom service
provider on the development.
rejig plan
nominees or legal heirs for non-operative for a period of Though the stock saw huge delivery
account re-activation, claims more than two years. “Central based buying over the two sessions , the FROM PAGE 1
settlement or closure. and State governments have Vodafone Idea futures contract didn’t
This move comes after RBI been expressing difficulty in witness much of a change in positions, for them to block the restruc-
launched “100 Days 100 Pays” crediting cheques/Direct Ben- indicating that traders in the futures turing.
campaign in June last year, efit Transfer/ Electronic Bene- segment might not have been as Vedanta Resources had
under which banks must trace fit Transfer/ scholarship euphoric as those in the cash segment. sought investor approval for a
and settle the top 100 amount in these accounts as Over the past two trading days, the stock liability management exercise
unclaimed deposits of every they are also classified as inop- surged 28.3%, from ₹13.25 on 28 Decem- Vodafone Idea was the top traded stock on the NSE on Monday, accounting for a traded value of ₹3,095.6 crore. AFP that would involve making a
bank in every district. The erative due to non-operation ber to ₹17 on 1 January with the stock hit- partial upfront payment and
deadline for the scheme, which for two years,” it said. ting an intraday high of ₹18.42 on Monday. Besides, expectations of spectrum fees Vodafone Idea has not applied for a investor picking up a stake in Vi. “Normally, then delaying by 29-52 months
was to end on 8 September, has Banks shall ensure that It was the top traded stock on the NSE, waiver was considered as a significant licence, which enables an entity to use sat- a bullish event would see far more short the maturity of three of its out-
now been amounts lying in accounting for a traded value of ₹3,095.6 cost-saving factor for the company. ellites for providing broadband services. covering than what we have witnessed on standing bond series—those
extended to 1 Banks shall not inoperative crore, ahead of heavyweights like BHEL However, a government official said that The Telecommunications Act allows for the active futures contract in this case.” maturing in January 2024,
April 2024. classify zero accounts or and Yes Bank, which benefited from the no such discussions were communi- administrative allocation of spectrum for Any activity indicating a positive event August 2024 and March 2025.
Under the new balance accounts unclaimed depos- buzz surrounding Vodafone Idea, and cated to the government, the single larg- offering satellite broadband services. in a stock prompts short covering, with The restructuring also
guidelines, RBI as ‘inoperative’ if its and reactivated HDFC Bank. On Friday, higher demand est shareholder in the telco. Trade data indicates a sharp divergence those holding bearish positions closing requires consent for the bonds
said banks shall will be put under led to the stock surging by 21%. Following the sharp spike in between cash segment euphoria them. While closing a short posi- maturing in April 2026,
it remains non- concurrent audit, although no changes have
undertake at least Over the two sessions, the trading in the volatile stock of and futures activity. The open tion traders must repurchase
an annual review operative for over according to the stock witnessed a delivery the debt-laden, loss-making interest a gauge of outstand- it at a higher level, leading to been proposed to their profile.
in respect of
accounts, where
two years: RBI new norms. All
transactions in
of 671 million shares. On
Friday 407 million Voda- 28.3%
surge in VI’s shares
carrier, Sebi sought a clarifi- ing buy-sell position in the
cation on the news reports. futures market, showed 671 mn
shares delivery was
increasing demand. How-
ever, in this case, only 53.3
The restructuring aims to
reduce the company’s imme-
there is no cus- these accounts, fone shares were deliv- This comes just a week minimal change over the million shares were shed diate debt load and reorganize
tomer induced transactions for which are reactivated, will be ered, a level not seen in a over the past two after Gujarat health minis- last two sessions. Despite a seen in last two from the open interest its debt repayment cycle that
more than a year. “In cases monitored regularly for at least year. Monday’s delivery of trading days ter and spokesperson, substantial increase in the trading sessions during 28 December and 1 saw it running against dead-
where there is no explicit man- six months, at higher levels 264 million shares signalled Rushikesh Patel, said the state Vodafone stock on Friday, January. Open interest at the lines to borrow more to pay off
date to renew the term deposit, without the knowledge of the continued interest after the was in discussions with Musk on open interest for active future end of trading on 1 January for investors every few months.
the banks should review such customers and dealing staff. stock rose 6.25% on a day the Nifty establishing Tesla’s manufacturing contracts fell by 0.43%. Similarly, on active futures contract was 183.76 The company seeks to have a
accounts if the customers have The balance in savings or cur- remained flat. plant. Neither the state government nor Monday, despite continued buying in the million shares, down from 189.1 million longer repayment cycle,
not withdrawn the proceeds rent accounts not operated for A Mumbai-based broker said Musk has made any statement on these cash segment, the open interest declined on 28 December. which is expected to help it
after maturity or transferred 10 years and term deposits not increased activity on the cash counter discussions yet. To be sure, Starlink has only by an additional 2.39%. Vodafone Idea did not respond to better meet its obligations
these to their savings/current claimed for 10 years from the was due to expectations of a global applied for a global mobile personal com- IndiaCharts founder Rohit Srivastava Mint’s queries on its plans to raise through its cash flows and a
account in order to prevent date of maturity are classified by investor acquiring a stake in the strug- munication by satellite services (GMPCS) said traders didn’t seem to have bought into ₹20,000 crore till press time. planned asset sale of some of
such deposits from becoming banks as unclaimed deposits. gling telecom services provider. licence, which maybe granted soon. rumours on the Street surrounding a global ram.sahgal@livemint.com its businesses, including ESL
Steel Ltd, formerly known as
Electrosteel Steels Ltd.
The company proposed that

SUV allure lifts PV sales beyond 4 mn GST revenue in December slips it would make an upfront pay-
ment of 53% for its $1 billion
bonds due in January, extend-

FROM PAGE 1 Hyundai’s overall SUV sales to “Strong minimum support

slower pace than the 7% growth
seen in FY24 so far. “We are
seeing some moderation in PV
growth. The real situation of
pending order books reported
by companies is getting tested
as capacities ramp up post chip
shortage at the start of the year.
While the SUV segment con-
tinues to outperform, the
recovery in the cars segment on
a low base will be keenly
watched,” Kale said.
Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai
Motor India said their stocks
are near two-week levels at the
beginning of 2024, down to
half of the levels seen at the
beginning of December.
Industry-wide, PV retail
numbers stood at a record
442,800 units in December,
Maruti’s Srivastava said, up
7.8% over last year, compared
to 287,904 wholesales in the
same month.
To be sure, official wholesale
and retail sales numbers will be
separately released by the auto
industry body Society of Indian
Automobile Manufacturers
(SIAM) and dealers’ body Fed-
eration of Automobile Dealers
Over 2 million SUVs were sold
in 2023, according to Maruti’s
Shashank Srivastava. MINT
Associations of India (FADA)
later in the month.
Vehicles with electrified pow-
ertrains, including electric vehi-
cles (EVs) and hybrid vehicles,
saw a 90% and 358% increase,
respectively, albeit on a relatively
low but expanding base. This has
benefitted companies including
Tata Motors and MG Motor
India, which are leaders in the
EV segment, as well as Toyota
and Maruti Suzuki, which have
introduced hybrid models in
some segments of SUVs.
New SUV models have been
selling like hot cakes; new
micro-SUV Exter pushed up
account for 60% of its portfolio, prices, improving road infra-
to ₹1.65 tn, may pick up again ing the maturity for the remain-
der to January 2027. The cou-
pon rate for this bond would
while Honda’s new SUV Ele- structure and good monsoons remain the same at 13.875%.
vate already accounts for half of translated into a very good FROM PAGE 1
Steady flow For the $951 million in bonds
its sales in India. growth in rural sales,” said GST receipts have averaged ₹1.66 trillion per month this year.
maturing in August 2024 and
Hyundai expects as much as Tarun Garg, chief operating offi- crore, while the states received $1.2 billion maturing in March
Collections (in  trillion) Year-on-year change (in %) (right-hand scale)
65% of its sales to come from cer, Hyundai Motor India. “For ₹71,587 crore in December, the 2025, upfront payments of 6%
2 16
SUVs next year, and sees SUVs Hyundai, rural contribution to ministry said. 15.2 and 16% are proposed, with the
as a segment growing to 53-54% our sales was at its highest ever at Experts pointed out that a 1.65 balance payable in three equal
of total PV sales. Meanwhile, 19.1% in 2023. Going forward in 12% growth in GST revenue 1.5 12 instalments between August
1.50
Maruti Suzuki is chasing a 25% 2024, we feel the industry would be very close to the 10.3 8
2027 and December 2028. The
share in the segment by the end growth could be in the low sin- nominal GDP growth rate this 1 company has also offered to
of FY24, and cur- gle digits, maybe fiscal, but revenue collections increase the coupon rates for
rently draws over Industry-wide, 3-4%, but that is as a result of GST audits and 0.5 4 these bonds from 6.125% and
23% of its sales passenger vehicle also very good enforcement measures could 8.95%, respectively, to 13.875%.
from SUVs. SUV- retail numbers considering that add to the kitty. With multiple 0
Dec 2022 Dec 2023
0 Investors who gave their
focused Mahindra stood at a record we are sitting on years’ assessments and show- consent before 27 December
Source: Ministry of finance
& Mahindra con- two years of back- cause notices getting time- will get a consent fee of 2% of
442,800 units in SATISH KUMAR/MINT
tinues to see a to-back highest- barred in the current financial the principal amount of their
strong inflow of December, up ever growth year, the Centre and states cated that e-way bill genera- up collection. bonds. Investors agreeing
new orders, even 7.8% over last year years”, Garg said. would possibly be expecting tion required for the move- In the April-October period, after 27 December will get a
as supply chain According to some revenue buoyancy to be ment of goods within and consumer durables’ output, 0.25% consent fee.
challenges for Srivastava, three generated by the tax adminis- across states had moderated in which indicates consumer To finance the upfront pay-
some products are still leading factors will contribute to a mod- tration, according to Vivek November to 87.5 million, sentiment and purchasing ments and consent fees,
to long waiting periods. eration in growth rate in 2024: Jalan, partner, Tax Connect down from over 100 million in power, had seen a modest 1.4% Vedanta Resources has
Automakers also reported “There’s no longer any pent-up Advisory Services Llp, a con- October, the highest ever in growth from a year ago, while secured $1.25 billion in term
healthy rural sales in 2023, demand or pending bookings sulting firm. the GST regime. The e-way bill the output of consumer non- debt maturing in April 2026.
highlighting an income-divide that’ll drive sales as that has been In December, large state generation trend in November durables, which are more fre- The capital was raised from a
even within the rural popula- fulfilled this year. We are enter- economies such as Maharash- gets reflected in tax collection quently purchased, saw 7.1% clutch of private credit len-
tion as sales of most consumer ing 2024 with optimal stock lev- tra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka in December to some extent. growth. ders including Cerberus Capi-
goods makers suggest a slow- els and the pass-through of the and Tamil Nadu reported rev- As a tax on consumption, Capital goods production tal Management and David-
down in rural consumption. high repo rate will result in high enue growth in the range of GST revenue is seen as reflect- and construction goods have son Kempner Capital Man-
For Maruti Suzuki, rural sales at auto loan rates, which can 12-19%, showed data. ing consumption trends in the shown robust double-digit agement.
776,000 units in 2023 was its potentially adversely affect Official data available from economy, in addition to growth in the first seven nehal.chaliawala@live-
highest ever, Srivastava said. demand,” he said. the GST Network had indi- administrative efforts to step months of the fiscal. mint.com

Shale is keeping the world awash with oil as conflicts abound

FROM PAGE 1
U.S. oil production had
grown to about 13.2 million
barrels a day as of October, up
almost 900,000 barrels a day
from the same month in 2022,
according to the Energy Infor-
mation Administration’s latest
available data.
Meanwhile drillers in Guy-
ana and Brazil also swiftly
increased their output in
2023, though neither gained
as much as U.S. shale.
All of that has kept the
world’s oil inventories far
more flush than traders
expected months ago, subdu-
ing oil prices. In response, the
Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries and its
allies moved in November to
cut output further to prop up
prices. U.S. crude prices have
dropped about 21% in the
fourth quarter, and were down
about 6% in December.
One beneficiary of cheaper
oil: President Biden, whose
Energy Department has
recently accelerated its pur-
chases of crude meant to
replace the barrels it sold off in
2022 from the nation’s strate-
gic petroleum reserve. The
government had sold the bar-
rels at higher prices that year,
and is now competing more
actively with international oil
buyers.
Tankers have recently car-
ried more U.S. crude to the
Netherlands, the U.K., Italy,
Spain, France, Germany and
other countries as more of
Russia’s crude has flowed to
Asia following Western sanc-
tions. U.S. oil shipments to
Europe have jumped 34%
since this time in 2022 and
82% from before Russia’s inva-
sion of Ukraine, Kpler data
show.
Longer term, the Red Sea
situation could bring more
business for U.S. LNG ship-
pers, which are building out
export capacity at Gulf Coast
facilities and are vying for
lengthy contracts with big
buyers in Europe, analysts
said.
The percentage of LNG
tankers set to pass through the
Suez Canal has dropped to its
lowest point in at least a dec-
ade. At the same time, Ameri-
can LNG exports are expected
to rise to a record of more than
8 million metric tons in
December, up from the previ-
ous record of 7.7 million in
October, Kpler projected.
Advocates for fracking have
president of consulting firm
Rapidan Energy. “But Iran is a
problem shale can’t solve,
because Iran threatens the
Strait of Hormuz, through
which 18 million barrels a day
flows.”
Also, with oil prices lower
than in late 2022, many shale
drillers large and small are
planning to keep spending
roughly flat in 2024, in line
with investors’ preferences.
That is expected to curtail pro-
duction growth. U.S. crude-oil
One beneficiary of cheaper oil has been US President Joe Biden. production is expected to
US crude prices fell about 21% in the December quarter. BLOOMBERG increase some 300,000 bar-
rels a day in 2024, Rapidan
long said fast-growing U.S. would diminish if Iran became Energy projects.
shale production could help directly embroiled in the con- Spending by U.S. producers
stabilize markets in times of flict. is expected to increase about
crisis, in part, because of the “When you’re talking about 2% to a collective $115 billion in
speed with which a shale well a minor disruption here or 2024. That is compared with a
produces. But analysts warned there, surging U.S. production 19% spending boost in 2023,
shale’s market influence helps,” said Robert McNally, and still well below the annual
average of $150 billion from
2010 to 2015, the industry’s
heyday, according to a survey
conducted by James West, an
analyst at investment bank
Evercore ISI.
“They don’t spend like
drunken sailors anymore,”
West said.
West said U.S. shale compa-
nies have made some incre-
mental improvements in effi-
ciency, such as in the time it
takes to drill a well. But the
recent production boost is
more the result of a large rig
count in late 2022 and early
2023, he said.
As of Friday, the number of
drilling rigs active in the U.S.
had fallen by about 20% since
the end of 2022, according to
Baker Hughes.
Some analysts also expect
continued consolidation in the
oil patch to curtail growth, as
large oil companies purchase
smaller rivals. In October,
Exxon Mobil agreed to buy
Pioneer Natural Resources for
nearly $60 billion in stock, and
Chevron announced it would
snap up Hessfor $53 billion in
stock.
Though the U.S. shale
industry has moved away
from its hypergrowth phase,
there is a dawning realization
following global conflicts
that demand for oil and gas
will remain healthy for years
to come, said John Arnold,
billionaire philanthropist
and former natural-gas
trader.
“I think there is growing
confidence from investors that
the industry isn’t going away
anytime soon,” Arnold said.
©2024 DOW JONES & CO., INC
LIVEMINT.COM CORPORATE Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai 07

‘In ad-tech, be agile & pragmatic’

Gaurav Laghate India versus the global scenario tomers in the process. The focus
gaurav.laghate@livemint.com post-covid? should be on being right rather than
MuMbaI Digital transformation involves quick, combining agility with a meth-
evolving business operations to lever- odological approach to achieving

Nao Spirits markets gins under Greater Than and Hapusa brands,
available across most states in India.
I
n a dynamic landscape of digital age data effectively. In the agency meaningful results. Madison’s role is
transformation, Madison World, world, this often means adapting to the to guide clients through a thoughtful
the Indian integrated communica- changes introduced by global players transformation journey, avoiding
tions major, has strategically tapped like Google and Meta. The key is to unnecessary risks as well as ensuring
into the expertise of Rob Norman. A keep up with technological advance- a smooth transition.
luminary of the ad-tech world, with key ments, ensuring planning, reporting, With the growing dominance of
roles, such as global head of digital at analytics, and billing systems are big tech players such as Google,

‘
GroupM and CEO of GroupM, North aligned with automated interfaces. Meta, and Amazon, how do you

Gin maker Nao America, Norman brings a wealth of

experience. Currently holding inde-
pendent board memberships at several
Spirits forays into digital-first companies in the US, Nor-
man shares exclusive insights into the
challenges of digital transformation
and evolving dynamics of the media
premium rum biz and advertising industry in this exclu-
sive interview. Edited excerpts.
Varuni Khosla
“Premium spirits remain an What led you to join Madison
varuni.k@livemint.com urban market. At the moment, Media as a strategic adviser, and
New DelhI the premium rum segment is what role are you playing within
under-penetrated largely with the company?
Madison’s transforma-
tion should focus on cre-
ating smooth, friction-
foresee the consoli-
dation of power in
The focus should advertising dollars,
be on being right and how should Mad-
less relationships with
their clients and suppli-
ers, reducing manual
rather than quick, ison’s clients navi-
combining agility
gate this scenario?
efforts, and allocating Consolidation of
resources to intelli-
gence. While being
agile, it’s also crucial to
with methodical
approach
power by Google, Meta,
and Amazon, account-
ing for over 50% of
Rob Norman
a portfolio in Madison’s group, working key is to assess how these changes be pragmatic, consider- Adviser, global advertising dol-
with the leadership, and offering strate- impact the way people think and act, ing the market specifics Madison Media lars is a reality. Clients
gic advice on various aspects, especially which is crucial in advertising busi- and learning from oth- must acknowledge this
those related to the digital landscape. ness. Madison needs to ensure it keeps ers’ experiences. shift and adapt strate-

G
in-maker Nao Spirits imported rums. We are work- Vikram (Sakhuja, (Group CEO) and Madison being an Indian com- clients informed about these changes, What are the common pitfalls gies accordingly. While the landscape
and Beverages Pvt. Ltd ing on ours for three years,” he Sam Balsara (founder and chairman pany lacks a global presence, how makes them understand the implica- organizations face during digital may vary in different regions, the
has forayed into pre- said. Initially, the capacity will and managing director) expressed do you envision its tions, and helps seize transformation, and how do you overarching trend is towards
mium rums with Pipa-Rum de be limited (400 cases) to test
Goa. The spiced rum, priced at the market, and 10% of it will be
interest in leveraging my experience,
particularly in the ad tech world. Dur-
positioning in the
evolving media
m INTERVIEW opportunities. Compa-
nies today need to be
plan to assist Madison’s clients in increased digital communication,
navigating these challenges? commerce, and media consumption.
₹3,000, will initially be availa- exported, he added. “In the ing our discussions, we explored the advertising land- agile in their approach, The most common pitfalls occur Madison needs to help clients navigate
ble in Goa, and will subse- premium spirits segment, areas where Madison, as a non-global scape, especially with the rapid balancing attack and defence, and when organizations rush into adopt- this by understanding regional nuan-
quently be marketed in other there is demand for authentic network, could benefit from external growth of digital? staying attuned to the evolving digital ing new systems without fully invest- ces, identifying relevant use cases, and
states, the company backed by stories, and Indians are willing perspectives. My experience, particu- Madison, being rooted in India, landscape without unnecessary com- ing in implementation, training, and integrating new technologies into
United Spirits, said. to experiment with new cate- larly in understanding the changes in must focus on understanding and plexities. follow-up. Clients need to ensure core marketing activities. It’s key to
The company’s gory and brands.” platforms and commerce, made them adapting to the changing consumer How do you perceive the current their transformation aligns with the recognize the changing dynamics and
co-founder and Pipa-Rum de Goa, Set up in 2017, believe that my insights could contrib- behaviours influenced by technology, landscape for digital transforma- company’s purpose, delivers on leverage chances while maintaining a
chief executive, priced at ₹3,000, Nao caught Dia- ute value. I serve as a minister without connectivity, and societal factors. The tion, especially in the context of promises, and involves staff and cus- pragmatic and informed approach.
Anand Virmani will initially be geo’s attention in
told Mint that the available in Goa, 2022. It bought
decision to enter 22.5% share in
and will be
the rum category
was driven by marketed in other
India’s status as states in time
Nao for ₹32 crore.
He said India’s
gin industry has
Flying high: December sets new record with 13.8 mn passengers
the world’s lead- grown from
ing sugarcane 12,000 cases in Anu Sharma daily domestic air traffic data in 2023 was 467,451 passengers airports recovered to 98% of Fuel accounts for 30–40% of Despite the sudden exit of
producer. Brown spirits domi- 2017 to about 320,000 cases anu.sharma@livemint.com shared by the ministry of civil on 25 November. pre-covid levels in FY23 and airlines’ expenses. 45–60% of an Go First in May and worsening
nate the Indian market, com- now. Of this, Nao claims to sell New DelhI aviation. That beats the earlier Ratings agency Icra has a sta- domestic traffic is expected to airlines’ operating expenses— supply chain issues, as against
prising 97% of the spirits seg- a third or 100,000 cases a year. high of 13.2 million passengers ble outlook on India’s aviation increase by 13-15%,” said Vinay including aircraft lease pay- the expected improvement,

D
ment, with rum contributing Virmani said the company omestic air traffic reached recorded in May. industry, considering the fast- Kumar G., vice president and ments, fuel expenses, and a sig- domestic air traffic has shown
12.5%. But the majority of prod- could break even by FY24 end. a record monthly high in Around 152 million passen- paced recovery in domestic sector head-corporate ratings, nificant portion of aircraft and resilience, aviation research
ucts is in the mass-produced It markets gins under Greater December and has sur- gers were estimated to have passenger traffic. at Icra. engine maintenance expenses— firm CAPA India said in a recent
value segment. Than and Hapusa brands, avail- passed pre-covid levels as more travelled by air in 2023, surpas- This, while airlines increased “Further, domestic traffic is are denominated in dollar terms. report.
The standard and premium able across most states in India. people in India chose air travel, sing the 144.2 million passen- fares, allowing for improved likely to achieve 111-113% of pre- As on 1 January, jet fuel pri- CAPA India expects air traf-
segments, relatively untapped, For FY24, Nao may clock net despite rising fares. gers recorded in 2019, provi- spread on revenue per available covid levels,” he said. ces in Delhi were at ₹1,01,993.17 fic to reach around 155 million
are set to grow (on a small base) revenue of ₹40 crore, he said. It About 13.8 million passen- sional figures showed. seat kilometre to the cost per With tailwinds supporting per kilolitre, registering a 4% passengers during the ongoing
46.5% and 21.1%, respectively, competes with Samsara pink gers travelled by air in Decem- While average daily air traffic available seat kilometre, Icra demand for air travel, it will be decline compared to December financial year ending 31 March,
between 2022 and 2027, as per gin Jaisalmer gin and Stranger ber, according to a back-of-the- in December stood at 440,000 said in its report. important to keep an eye on avia- and nearly 6% lower than a year increasing 15% over the previ-
IWSR, a drinks consultancy. and Sons. envelope calculation based on passengers, highest daily traffic “Domestic traffic at Indian tion turbine fuel prices. earlier. ous year.

Head Office Virar Tel : 0250-2525101/02/03/04/05/06

Virar (E) Tal-Vasai Fax : 0250-2525107
Dist-Palghar Pin 401 305. e-mail : vasaivirarcorporation@yahoo.com
Outward No. VVCMC/WS/799/2024
Date : 01/01/2024
VASAI-VIRAR CITY MUNICIPAL CORPORATION
Sewerage Department, Head Office, Virar East
Tender Notice
Blank Tender Form for the below mentioned works in Vasai-Virar City Municipal Corporation

FACTS WITHOUT area on the official website https://mahatenders.gov.in Will be available from dt. 08/01/2024
onwards. For more information regarding e-tendering contact e-tendering room , Vasai Virar City
Municipal Corporation, Headquarters, Sewage Department, Virar.

FILTER,
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Treatment Plant at Nalasopara in Vasai Virar City Municipal Corporation
area under AMRUT-2.0 Scheme.
Outward No.VVCMC/WS/799/2024
Date :- 01/01/2024
Please Visit our official web site Sd/-

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(http://mahatenders.gov.in) Deputy Commissioner (WS)
(Approved by Municipal Commissioner) Vasai Virar City Municipal Corporation

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08 Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai
LIVEMINT.COM

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LIVEMINT.COM NeWs WrAP Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai 09

NEWS
₹1.65 tn
INDIA’S GOODS and Services Tax (GST)
56,677
THE NUMBER of passenger vehicles auto
52
THE NUMBER of years Denmark’s 83-
97.38%
THE PERCENTAGE of the ₹2,000 bank
300
THE NUMBER of complaints received by
IN collections in December 2023, up 10% major Mahindra & Mahindra sold in the year-old Queen Margrethe II has been in notes that have been returned to the RBI NITES, a union representing IT workers,
NUMBERS year-on-year, and the tenth consecutive
month in which it exceeded ₹1.5 trillion.
domestic market in December 2023, up
24% from 28,445 units in December 2022.
power, as she announced her decision to
pass on the crown to her son.
since the regulator announced their
withdrawal on 19 May 2023.
regarding forced transfers of employees
by Tata Consultancy Services.

HOWINDIALIVES.COM

Decline seen in NEW YEAR LAUNCH Govt lowers jet fuel

fresh covid cases price by 4%

A J
fter crossing the 800-mark on Sunday, et fuel or aviation turbine fuel (ATF) price
the number of fresh cases of covid on Monday was reduced by 4%, the third
infection came down on Monday. As per straight monthly cut, and commercial
the health ministry data, there were 636 fresh cooking gas (LPG) rates were marginally
infections compared to 841 the previous day. lowered by ₹1.50 per 19-kg cylinder, in line
On Monday, the country reported three more with global benchmarks. However, the price of
deaths due to the coronavirus, taking the total domestic LPG—used in household kitchens for
fatality count due to the virus to 5,33,364 in the cooking purposes—remained unchanged at
country. ₹903 per 14.2-kg cylinder.
Two fatalities were reported from Kerala, and The Union government has lowered the
one from Tamil Nadu, the data showed. price of the domestic natural gas to $7.82 per
With the addition of the new confirmed cases, million British thermal units (mmBtu) for the
the active caseload in the country has now risen month of January, from $8.47 per mmBtu last
to 4,394. According to the ministry, India month.
recorded 841 new instances of covid-19 on The price revision would be applicable on
Sunday, which is the largest daily increase in gas produced from difficult fields, operated by
almost seven months or the last 227 days. private players. However, the price of gas from
After a period of comparatively low infection the nomination fields of state-run ONGC and
rates—daily infections had dropped to double OIL remained unchanged at the capped price
digits until 5 December—the number of cases of $6.5 per mmBtu. RITURAJ BARUAH & PTI
increased. SOMRITA GHOSH

Isro’s polar satellite launch vehicle C58, carrying an X-ray polarimeter satellite and 10 other satellites, lifts off from the spaceport of Sriharikota on
Monday. The polarimeter satellite, weighing about 470kg, will carry out research on X-rays emanating from around 50 celestial objects with the help
of two payloads built by Isro and a Bengaluru-based research institute. PTI

Crude oil imports from Russia had risen to an all-

Number of TB patients in India Reliance Power will sell its 1,200-MW Kalai II hydel
project in Arunachal Pradesh for ₹128 cr
time high of 2.15 mn barrels a day in May. REUTERS

India’s oil imports declined marginally in 2023 Reliance in deal to

sell project to THDC
from Russia drop
R
eliance Power has inked an agreement to

I
ndia’s crude oil imports from its largest
supplier Russia plunged in December to
their lowest since January 2023, as six
tankers carrying Sokol grade oil could not
deliver due to payment issues amid tightening
sanctions, according to data intelligence
company Kpler.
After rising to an all time record of 2.15
sell its 1,200 MW Kalai II hydroelectric
TB cases fell to 2.23 million, but only 1.4 million could benefit from a key govt scheme project in Arunachal Pradesh for ₹128.39
crore to THDC India. The purpose of entering
into the agreement was to monetize the
Somrita Ghosh fied TB patients were 1.80 million in the country. Cumulatively, till November 2023, NTEP hydroelectric power project, Reliance Power
somrita.ghosh@partner.livemint.com Nikshay Poshan Yojana is a government scheme to (National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme said on Sunday. According to the filing, the
NEw DElHI provide ₹500 per month for tuberculosis patients NTEP) has disbursed ₹2,617.44 crore to 95.93 lakh governor of Arunachal Pradesh, Kalai Power
to buy food. As per the government data, benefici- TB patients. Each TB patient must be notified on Private Ltd (a subsidiary of the company), and

million barrels a day in May, oil imports from
Russia fluctuated downwards, experiencing a
sharp decline between November and
December to 1.48 million barrels a day last
month, according to Kpler data.
Indian refiners, which bought an average
140,000 barrels a day of Sokol in 2023,
couldn’t receive any such cargoes last month.
Sakhalin-1 LLC, which extracts crude from
Russia’s Far East, has not been able to open a
bank account in the United Arab Emirates to
enable buyers to pay in dirham as agreed,
Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst with Kpler,
said in an email on Sunday.
Of the six tankers left idle around India’s
coast, two indicated they may reroute to China,
he said. BLOOMBERG
T
he number of tuberculosis patients fell aries paid at least one benefit over the last five years the Nikshay, platform. For each extension of treat- THDC India Ltd (THDC) have inked an
marginally to 2.23 million in 2023, from stands at 1.3 million in 2018, the next year saw 1.6 ment ₹1,000 is paid for two months or if extension agreement in this regard on 30 December 2023.
2.42 million in 2022, but not all of them million, in 2020 the is only for one Under the pact, there will transfer of the
have enrolled for a key central govern- number of benefici- month, then ₹500 is development rights and associated physical
ment scheme for financial support—the aries dropped to 1.4 Undernutrition is an important risk paid. “The data is till assets, studies, clearances, designs and
Nikshay Poshan Yojana, official data showed. million, in 2021, the factor for TB, and the government November end, so intellectual properties of the proposed 1,200
A senior official from health ministry associated numbers rose to 1.75 essentially (the full MW Kalai-II hydroelectric project located at the
with the programme said the number of beneficia- million and in 2022 introduced the Nikshay Poshan year) figures should Lohit river basin of Arunachal Pradesh to THDC
ries under NPY is likely to see an increase by the the beneficiaries Yojana in April 2018 be a bit higher than for an aggregate consideration of ₹128.39 crore,
end of December, as the data is updated till Novem- increased to 1.94 showed in the data. subject to certain indemnities, representations
ber 2023. As per the health ministry data, only 1.4 million. In earlier years, it and covenants, it stated. PTI
million Tuberculosis (TB) patients were disbursed Undernutrition is an important risk factor for was a problem having all patients having a bank
₹500 each per month in 2023, compared to 1.94 TB, and the government introduced the Nikshay account but it has smoothened out. Previously, the
million beneficiaries and 1.75 million beneficiaries, Poshan Yojana (NPY) in April 2018 for providing money was sanctioned in every two months. How-
respectively, in 2022 and 2021. The number of TB
patients notified in 2022 was 2.42 million, while in
₹500 per month as DBT (direct benefit transfer) to ever, there are usually delays on sending the
support the nutrition of TB patients for the entire money to those who don’t have a bank account
JK Tyre raises
2021 it was 2.13 million. In the year 2020, the noti- duration of the treatment. still,” said the official.
₹500 cr via QIP

J
K Tyre & Industries on Monday said it has
Ashok Vaswani to raised ₹500 crore by way of qualified
₹766 cr sanctioned for projects in NE institutional placement (QIP).
lead Kotak as CEO The qualified institutional placement
received an overwhelming response from
“The corporation assisted around 5,338 marquee investors including Indian mutual

K
otak Mahindra Bank on Monday said
veteran banker Ashok Vaswani has
assumed charge as the managing director
(MD) and CEO of the bank.
He replaced Dipak Gupta, who was the
interim MD and CEO, following founder
director Uday Kotak stepping down as the head
of the bank, effective 1 September 2023.
“Ashok Vaswani has assumed the office as the
Managing Director and CEO of the Bank, with
effect from 1 January 2024,” Kotak Mahindra
Bank said in a regulatory filing.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in October
2023 approved the appointment of Vaswani as
the bank’s MD and CEO for a period of three
NEDFi has set up the north-east venture
fund to foster start-ups in the region. MINT
projects, with total sanctions &
disbursements of ₹766.47 crore and ₹547.11
crore respectively, in diverse sectors—
education & training, food processing,
handlooms & handicraft, healthcare, hotels
& tourism, microfinance etc. between 1
January 2023 and 30 November 2023,”
said a ministry statement. It said that in
order to aid in the development of the
micro and small enterprises sector in the
north-east, NEDFi made a concentrated
effort to identify and nurture potential
first-generation local entrepreneurs and
provide finance on easy terms, including
concessional rates of interest, to help them
HFCL’s network upgrade will position BSNL for the
future with a seamless launch of 4G services.
HFCL to upgrade
funds, insurance companies and foreign
institutional investors, the tyre major said in a
statement.
“This is an important milestone in our
corporate journey. Participation of several
reputed investors in the issue endorses their
faith and confidence in the company’s growth
story,” JK Tyre chairman and managing
director Raghupati Singhania stated.
QIP funds will be used for the purpose of
growth capex and strengthening of the balance
sheet, he added.
JK Tyre shares were trading 0.16% up at
₹399 apiece on the BSE. PTI

years. Like Uday Kotak, he is also an alumnus of
the Sydenham College of Commerce and
Economics. Vaswani is also a qualified chartered
accountant and company secretary. Vaswani
had worked with Barclays in the recent past.
Prior to this, Vaswani was the president of
Pagaya Technologies Ltd—a US-Israeli AI
T BSNL’s network
he Union ministry of development of
north-eastern region on Monday said
that the North Eastern Development
Finance Corporation Ltd (NEDFi)
sanctioned ₹766.47 crore for 5,338
projects across sectors during the January-
November period of 2023.
set up viable industrial projects. It added
that NEDFi has set up the north-east
venture fund, a dedicated venture capital Steel sector still in
H
fund to encourage startups in the region in FCL Ltd (HFCL) on Monday said it has
collaboration with the ministry of
development of north-eastern region.
secured a ₹1,127-crore order from Bharat
Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) to transform
post-covid recovery
VAAGEESH THIRUMALAI the Optical Transport Network (OTN)

Fintech player. PTI infrastructure across the state-owned telco’s pan-
India network.
HFCL’s comprehensive network upgrade
will not only cater to the requirements of
Adani hires global team for Mumbai’s slum redevelopment enterprise and FTTH/broadband services
but also position BSNL for the future with
the seamless launch of 4G services and
T
he steel sector in the country is still in
recovery mode after the covid pandemic,
Tata Steel CEO and MD T.V. Narendran
said on Monday. He said demand for steel will
continue to grow, backed by the government’s
focus on infrastructure development.
“This (2023) has been good year for the steel

T
he Adani Group has brought leading global experts in city planning, the anticipation of 5G services in the coming sector in India, even though it was a challenging
including architect Hafeez Contractor, design firm Sasaki, and years. period globally,” Narendran said here.
consultancy firm Buro Happold, on board for the ambitious Dharavi HFCL, in a release, said it has secured ₹1,127 “The recovery of the steel industry is still
redevelopment project in Mumbai. Led by Contractor, the consortium will crore order to transform BSNL’s Optical continuing post the global pandemic. In fact, we
also have experts from Singapore, as they work on rehabilitating Asia’s largest Transport Network. recovered well due to good handling of micro-
slum that nearly a million call their home, the Adani Group said in a press “Leveraging its unparalleled expertise in economy by the RBI, and the investment that
statement. integrating complex systems, HFCL has has been made for infrastructure development,”
Contractor is known for his work on social housing and Slum strategically partnered with the NOKIA he said at a New Year programme here.
Rehabilitation Authority (SRA) projects in Mumbai. He has also designed Network to deploy state-of-the-art optical The demand for steel grew 10%-12% in 2023
some of India’s tallest buildings, including The 42 in Kolkata and The technology,” the release said. and this trend should continue, he said, while
Imperial twin towers in Mumbai. This partnership underlines a commitment to expressing apprehension about increasing
American design firm Sasaki is known for its expertise in creating deliver cutting-edge solutions that transcend import of steel from China. Tata Steel will have
sustainable, integrated live-work-play environments. It has a 70-year legacy. industry standards and redefine the parameters to increase its capacity by 1-2 mt every year to
Buro Happold, a UK-based consultancy firm, is known for its creative and Led by Contractor, the consortium will also have experts from of technological excellence network, the release maintain its market share, “which we have been
environmentally-conscious infrastructure solutions. MAYUR BHALERAO Singapore, as they work on rehabilitating Asia’s largest slum. HT added. PTI doing”, he said. PTI
10 Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai LONG STORY LIVEMINT.COM

LESSONS IN ECONOMICS
FRoM ThE IPL aucTIon
Teams spent big money at the December auction. Information, potential and recency effect played their part

ASHISH ASTHANA/MINT

Vivek Kaul ble business. case, four teams wanted Starc as a part of The WInneR’s cuRse that guy.”
mint
feedback@livemint.com
mumBai
Nonetheless, when businesses make
such decisions, they typically tend to do
so behind closed doors. How the entire
their plan. They really believe he can be
a gamechanger.
Let’s now take the case of Pat Cum-
SHORT
STORY I PL has two kinds of auctions. The Of course, the winner’s curse
mega auction, which happens every becomes clear only post the tourna-
three years and the mini auction, which ment or during the course of it, when a

B
ritish economist Lionel Rob- dynamic plays out isn’t visible in the mins, the captain of Australia’s men’s happens in between. Regular watchers player does not perform well. So, will
bins defined economics as the public domain. The same cannot be said team, who was bought for ₹20.5 crore by Lesson 1 of the IPL auction believe that in the Starc and Cummins be worth the price
study of the use of scarce about the men’s IPL. Every year, teams Sunrisers Hyderabad. Cummins has case of mini auctions, teams have more teams have paid for them this year?
resources which have alterna- buy players in a public auction, which played 128 T20 matches and taken 143 More than information being at the money available vis-à-vis the availabil- That only time will tell.
tive uses. And what does scarce happens a few months before the IPL is wickets at an average of 26.7 per wicket heart of economic decision making, ity of skilled players who they would
mean? American economist Thomas played. This auction is broadcast on TV and an economy rate of nearly 8 runs per economic decisions impart like to buy, allowing them to splurge Recency effecT
information. Four teams wanted
Sowell writes in Basic Economics that
scarce means “what everybody wants adds
up to more than there is”.
and majorly covered across digital, print
and TV media. In that sense, there is
more information available on how dif-
over. These figures tell us that Cummins
is a decent T20 bowler but nowhere near
the calibre of Starc in this format of the
Mitchell Starc—because they believe
he can be a game changer.
more money while going after players
that they want. T he recent performances of players
are more in the picture than their
This explains the reason behind play- overall records. Take the case of Jhark-
In simple English, there isn’t enough ferent teams go about spending a limited game. So, what explains the high price ers like Starc and Cummins being sold at hand’s wicketkeeper batsman Kumar
going around for everybody. Now, take amount of money while buying players, he was sold at? He has had a particularly the kind of price that they did. Or if we Kushagra. His T20 record is very aver-
the case of the men’s Indian Premier in comparison to businesses making successful year captaining the Austra- Lesson 2 were to put it in terms of economics, too age. In 11 matches, he has scored runs at
League (IPL), the world’s most famous similar allocation decisions behind lian men’s cricket team which won both much money chasing too few goods an average of 15.6 per innings and a
Twenty-20 (T20) cricket league, usu- closed doors. the 50-overs ODI World Cup and the Economic decision making tends to bid up the prices. Did someone strike rate of 118 for every 100 balls.
ally played from late March to late May In fact, the most recent auction hap- World Test Championship. So, teams encourages “independent trial and say inflation? That’s a poor record. Nonetheless, what
every year. There are 10 teams that pened on 19 December, and teams spent vying for him were basically looking at error in an environment of In fact, other than too much money attracted attention of the cricket scouts
play the tournament. They have a cer- big money buying both domestic and him to captain the team and were willing fundamental uncertainty”. Teams chasing too few goods, there is another was an unbeaten 36-ball 67 runs that
tain amount of money which they can international players. Indeed, the way to pay a high price. bet on the potential of some players, dynamic that tends to bid up prices in Kushagra scored in November against
use to buy players in auctions and they went about it and the amount of which is a process of trial and error. an auction. The economists call it the Maharashtra helping his team chase a
these players then play for the team. money they spent, offers us broad lessons PoTenTIal winner’s curse. As Richard Thaler score of 355 runs, in the 50-over Vijay
The amount of money that teams can
use to buy players is limited. The same
is true about the number of players
on the subject of economics. In this piece
we will look at these lessons. T his auction, like several other auc-
tions over the years, saw teams pay-
ing top dollar for relatively unknown
Lesson 3
writes in Misbehaving—The Making of Hazare trophy. The same stands true for
Behavioural Economics: “When many Cummins as well, with teams going after
bidders compete for the same object, him for Australia’s recent wins. Or take
who are skilled enough to be picked up InfoRmaTIon players. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) When many bidders compete the winner of the auction is often the the case of Sameer Rizvi. He averages
for the same object, the winner is
by teams.
So, there is a scarcity of money and I t is said that information is at the
heart of economic decision making.
there is a scarcity of players. In this sce- Take the case of Mitchell Starc—the
paid ₹8.4 crore for Uttar Pradesh bats-
man Sameer Rizvi. He is being called the
right-handed Suresh Raina—a left
often the bidder who most
overvalues the object being sold.
bidder who most overvalues the object close to 50 in the 11 T20 appearances he
being sold.” The auction dynamic has made for Uttar Pradesh and he hit 18
essentially ensures that teams end up sixes in the Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy,
nario, the teams need to Australian fast bowler, handed batsman who performed In IPL, teams end up overpaying overpaying for certain the domestic T20 tour-
allocate money carefully who was the most superbly for CSK in the past. Then Guj- for certain players. players. nament organized by
to buy players they think Rinku Singh has been in expensive buy of the arat Titans paid ₹3.6 crore for Robin This has happened in The recent performances of the Board of Control
can help them win the great form. But his case tournament. Starc was Minz—aka Jharkhand’s Chris Gayle. the IPL quite a few players are more in the picture for Cricket in India. As
tournament. bought by the Kolkata The 21-year old wicket keeper batsman son. Negi has a good overall T20 record times in the past. Take the Sportstar put it, he
Typically, every firm is a lesson, too— Knight Riders for a is yet to play for his state. Another as a left-arm spin bowler, but his per- the case of Yuvraj than their overall records. The hit one six for every 11
makes similar deci- economic decision making whopping ₹24.75 crore. Jharkhand player, Kumar Kushagra, got formances in the IPL weren’t special Singh. The left-handed case of Jharkhand’s balls he faced.
sions at different points What explains this? picked up by Delhi Capitals for ₹7.2 except in 2017 when he took 16 wickets in batting all-rounder was In a way, the focus on
of time. Companies doesn’t always lead to First, Starc is a great crore. Shubham Dubey got picked up by 12 matches. Or take the case of Murugan bought for ₹16 crore in wicketkeeper batsman Kumar recent performances
decide whether to T20 bowler, who has Rajasthan Royals for ₹5.8 crore. Spen- Ashwin, who was bought for ₹4.5 crore 2015 and ₹14 crore in make sense, given that
enter or not enter a egalitarian outcomes. taken 170 wickets in the cer Johnson, a left-handed Australian by Rising Pune Supergiant (a team that 2014, respectively. He Kushagra is a case in point. teams expect the players
particular business. 121 T20 appearances at fast bowler, was picked up for ₹10 crore no longer exists) before the 2016 season. did not deliver much to carry on with the form
They decide to allocate a certain amount an average of 19.5 per wicket and an by Gujarat Titans. His performances, like that of Negi, bang for the buck. In 2015, his batting that they are in, when they play IPL from
of money to enter a certain business. economy rate of 7.5 runs per over. Sec- This is not the first time teams are weren’t really great. KC Cariappa, average was just 19 per innings at a March to May.
Then they decide to spend that money ond, he will be playing IPL after eight paying such huge amounts for relatively deemed to be a mystery spinner, who was strike rate of 118. Or take the case of So, these are the lessons in econom-
in different ways towards different years, bringing a certain novelty to the raw talent. As Martin Wolf writes in a bought for ₹2.4 crore by Kolkata Knight Charles Morris, a bowling allrounder ics that one can draw from the IPL auc-
aspects of the business, in order to first tournament and the team that he will different context in The Crisis of Demo- Riders in the 2015 auction, is another from South Africa. In the auction before tion that happened in December. And
get it going and then to keep it running. play for. Also, his 121 T20 appearances cratic Capitalism, economic decision example of the same. the 2021 IPL, after a fierce bidding war, there is a final lesson, which we can call
They also need to decide who to aren’t much given that he played his first making encourages “independent trial Of course, there are success stories Morris was bought by Rajasthan Royals the Rinku Singh lesson, or as econo-
recruit—top management, middle man- T20 match in December 2009. So, he and error in an environment of funda- like Jaspreet Bumrah, Hardik Pandya, for a whopping ₹16.25 crore, the high- mists would put it, economic decision
agement and foot soldiers—who can isn’t really jaded playing T20 cricket. Or mental uncertainty”. In that sense, Varun Chakravarthy and quite a few est amount ever, at that point of time. making doesn’t always lead to egalitar-
then run the business, hopefully suc- as the film writer Salim Khan once said, teams have paid as much as they did pri- others, who were relatively unknown He played 11 matches in the season, ian outcomes. Singh has been in the
cessfully. Over a period of time, who to “You get paid for saying no”. marily for the potential they see in these players before playing the IPL. Trial and claiming 15 wickets at an average of 25 form of his life, even hitting five sixes in
fire and who to retain, also becomes an The trouble is every team had this infor- players. Of course, some recent per- error can work both ways. In that sense, per wicket and an economy rate of 9.2 five balls, to help his team Kolkata
important decision. Each of these deci- mation on him and more. Which is why formances would also have been taken IPL teams betting on newer players for per over. His batting was nothing to Knight Riders win a game in last year’s
sions stems from scarcity of resources they went hard for him. Delhi Capitals, into account. their potential, is like venture capital- write home about. An average perform- edition of the IPL. He was bought by the
and is an allocation decision because Mumbai Indians, Kolkata Knight Riders But paying for potential still remains a ists investing in startups, which at the ance to say the least, which was proba- Knight Riders for ₹55 lakh before the
money and people with adequate skills and Gujarat Titans, all bid for him, until process of trial and error. Teams have time of investment do not have much of bly not worth the big bucks. 2023 tournament. Of course, the irony
are usually both scarce. Knight Riders finally got him. paid a lot of money for potential in the a track record but seem to have a lot of As Thaler writes: “When a team falls is that Yash Dayal, the bowler Singh hit
Hence, money needs to be properly What does this tell us? More than past and burnt their fingers in the pro- potential. Of course, that potential may in love with a certain player they are five sixes, was bought for ₹5 crore by
spent and the right kind of employees and information being at the heart of eco- cess. Take the case of Pawan Negi. Delhi not always come through, leading to IPL just sure that every other team shares Royal Challengers Bangalore. Who said
other business partners need to be nomic decision making, economic deci- Daredevils (now Delhi Capitals) bought teams, like venture capitalists, burning their view. They try to jump to the head life is fair?
recruited in the hope of running a profita- sions impart information. Like in this him for ₹8.5 crore before the 2016 sea- their fingers. of the line before any other team steals Vivek Kaul is the author of Bad Money.
LIVEMINT.COM MINT MONEY Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai 11

How this small-town dentist couple POWER

POINT
set their personal finance goals SAHIL KAPOOR

We welcome your views and comments at

mintmoney@livemint.com

INVESTORS NEED TO
They sought the services of an RIA to streamline their investments and to set up their own clinic in Gondia
HAVE A BALANCED
Aprajita Sharma
aprajita.sharma@livemint.com Taking a wise step
expenses,” he says.
For instance, when he needed to
buy medical equipment, he bought it
APPROACH THIS YEAR

F
inancial awareness is rela- A chance Google search takes a dentist couple to an RIA who secures their financial fortunes on lease instead of dipping into per-

tively lower among residents
of towns and smaller cities,
compared to metros. And
the reasons for this include,
among others, lower income genera-
tion and limited access to specialized
financial advice. A majority of the
people own small businesses or are
dependent on agricultural income.
So, they mostly juggle between sav-
ing for personal use and reinvesting
to grow their businesses. It was no dif-
ferent for a dentist couple from Gon-
dia in Maharashtra till they sought
professional help. Dr Akshat Agarwal
(31) set up a dental clinic, Kids and
Family Dental Centre, in 2019. The
next year, he got married and his wife,
Sonal Agarwal, also a dentist, joined
the clinic as a co-owner. They had a
son a year later.
“The property which houses my
clinic is on rent which I will have to
vacate sooner or later. I had already
taken a professional loan of ₹15.11 lakh
when I started my practice. I needed
money for setting up my dental clinic
and also for meeting my personal
financial goals,” Akshat Agarwal says.
Early investment journey
Gondia is also known as ‘Rice City’
due to the abundance of rice mills in
the area. “People mostly invest in land
and when they need money get into
informal lending at a high interest
rate. I did not want to do it,” he says.
After consultation with relatives
and friends, Agarwal ended up invest-
ing in more than 10 mutual fund
schemes. He also created a stock port-
folio. “One of my friends connected
me with a mutual fund distributor
(MFD) who made me start systematic
investment plans (SIPs) in mutual
funds. A relative later told me that
distributors get commission from
mutual fund companies .My distribu-
tor had not shared details of the
schemes in which I had invested. I did
not know that I could track these
investments by myself,” he says.
Meanwhile, Agarwal lost about
₹50,000 after dabbling in the stock
markets in 2021. “I was clueless about
how to set things right and I needed
somebody to guide me,” he says.
A random google search landed
him on the website of SahajMoney, a
financial planning firm founded by
registered investment adviser (RIA)
I
sonal savings. “Kumar suggested that ndia presents an attractive opportunity for investors seeking
Risk-profile there was no point in buying the high growth potential in a volatile global environment. Yet,
Moderately aggressive investor machine as the technology will get people need to carefully consider the following factors before
obsolete in a couple of years,” he says. making investment decisions.
Original Current Does he follow all advice from Growth and potential: India’s economic growth story is
portfolio (2021) portfolio (2023) Kumar? Not really! “Agarwal wanted to compelling. Its GDP has grown at a steady more than 7% in US
buy a land on loan for his clinic. We ini- dollar terms, outpacing most countries. This growth translates
25 tially asked him to defer the plan and to strong corporate earnings, with Nifty 50 firms posting 22%
Debt 42 focus only on building the corpus but profit growth over the past 3 years in compound annual growth
Debt 58 when the couple insisted on it, we rate terms. Several factors contribute to this success. Benign
Equity
75 advised them to withdraw funds from monetary policy has kept interest rates stable, fostering invest-
Equity the emergency corpus because they ment and growth. A revitalized banking sector with robust lend-
already had financial liabilities. Finan- ing capacity supports consumption and investment. Addition-
cial discipline was needed to move ally, corporate India has significantly de-leveraged, improving
Gaps identified and fixed them away from excessive leverage. its financial health and paving the way for further expansion.
Akshat Agarwal (31),Husband (right), Dentist in Gondia, Maharashtra Highly Aggressive Portfolio Moreover, being a small city, their Headwinds and risks: Despite its positive outlook, India
Sonal Agarwal (31), Wife, Dentist in Gondia, Maharashtra and  Moved to moderately aggressive expenses were limited against their faces several challenges. A fractured global growth picture
Ayan Agarwal (1), Son portfolio
cash flows. Their emergency corpus presents headwinds, with many economies experiencing slug-
Financial goals Insurance Low health insurance cover could be built again,” says Kumar. gishness and rising interest rates. This could dampen Indian
 Building emergency corpus  Suggested family floater with a super Fees and process exports and overall economic activity. India’s market cap has now
 Life
top-up(₹1 cr) Kumar charges ₹15,000 as first- surpassed $4.1 trillion and is now 120% of GDP. This is far beyond
 Child's boarding school education  Health
Low life cover time fixed fee to analyse a client’s the recent highs that this ratio made. We are getting into unchar-
 Child's higher education  Property  Suggested term plans (₹3 cr) finances, create a financial plan and tered territory. Valuations have also trended higher with trailing
 Retirement corpus  Professional indemnity recommend products. A renewal fee 12-month Nifty P/E ratio now above 22 times. Historically, such
All-in-one finances
 Different bank accounts for personal of ₹5,000 is charged after every six valuations lead to lower returns in the future. Earnings growth
& business expenses months to review the portfolio. has been a key pillar of support for the markets. Aided by strong
Status of goals Did his fees deter the Agarwals? economic growth, record margins and stable monetary policy
Corpus reached Financial liabilities
 Part payments for loan foreclosure “The fee is surely lesser than the qual- earnings have trended higher and has seen very few downgrades
Long-term goals Child's education, ity of financial advice they have given which is break from the past. This augurs well for the long term
(>2 years) 10% retirement corpus
me,” he says. The process, however, if the earnings trajectory can withstand the softer growth trajec-
Liabilities
Short-term goals could have been better. “I needed to tory for the next few quarters. This
28% Building emergency  Professional loan to start dental practice
(<2 years) corpus*  Professional equipment on lease
fill up an excel sheet manually before Investors suggests that investors are already fac-
they could on-board me. The sheet benefit a toring in significant future growth,
*100% achieved earlier but deployed in buying land Source: SahajMoney needs to get updated every time I get leaving less margin of safety and
my portfolio reviewed,” he says. lot in years potentially leading to subdued returns.
The client implements the action which begin Investment implications: While
Abhishek Kumar. Agarwal had no from me. The others would only push coverage from a public sector insurer. plan by himself. “Abhishek shares with low India’s growth story remains attract-
idea about Sebi-registered RIAs or a product irrespective of whether it “I wasn’t aware that insurance and with me relevant links but I make the expectations ive, investors must carefully consider
fixed-fee financial planning model till suited my risk profile or not,” says loan advisory will be a part of the investments myself. This contrasts the risks and uncertainties involved.
then. To be sure, RIAs are authorized Agarwal. package,” he says. On Kumar’s advice, with the MFD who had taken care of Assessing the global outlook, valua-
to impart unbiased financial advice End-to-end financial planning Agarwal bought a life insurance cover all the paperwork himself,” he says. tions, and potential headwinds is crucial. A balanced approach,
and barred from earning RIAs follow a process of ₹2.5 crore. His wife took a term life The excel sheet problem, though, acknowledging both the opportunities and challenges, will be
commissions from the The Agarwals are before creating a finan- cover of ₹1.5 crore. She was paying an could be addressed through account key to navigating the complexities of investing in India.
sale of financial prod- content with the cial plan. They seek annual premium of ₹1.25 lakh for an aggregators (AAs). The aggregators The way ahead: Investors benefit a lot in years which begin
ucts. services of their details of existing sav- unit-linked insurance plan, but sur- act as an intermediary between finan- with low expectations. In years which end with a negative return,
“When I came to know fee-only advisor ings, investments, liabil- rendered the policy and replaced it cial information providers (FIPs) and the following year is often with high margin of safety and above
that RIAs only charge a ities, expenses and with the term plan. Besides a family financial information users (FIUs) average returns. Nifty Index is likely to close 2023 positively. This
and want to
fixed fee for the advisory, financial goals. They floater health insurance plan from a and exchange customer data after with the eighth consecutive year of positive returns. In fact over
I was impressed,” he continue this for also analyse their cli- private insurer, Kumar also suggested taking their consent. “Once Sahaj- the last 15 years, Nifty has produced only one negative year with
says. the long term ents’ risk appetite based that Agarwal buy professional indem- Money is live on AA as an FIU, I shall a marginal (3.5%, YTD) loss. Moreover, valuations for large, mid
Personalized gui- on a few questions. It nity insurance and property (clinic, be able to automate the process for and small caps are above long-term averages. Investors should
dance was another big helps them allocate machinery, fire) insurance. my clients. RIAs will be able to fetch adopt two methods:
plus. “I had always preferred a per- their funds in debt and equities in the The right direction the data directly from FIPs after get- Asset allocation: Use a Multi Asset Allocation strategy to
sonal tutor over coaching classes. right proportion. Not only do they Kumar asked Agarwal to separate ting client consent,” he says. reduce exposure to equities and add a flavour of debt and gold.
And when Abhishek sent me an excel recommend investment products, his personal and clinic expenses. “I The Agarwals, meanwhile, have Staggering purchases: History shows that SIPs started at the
sheet in which I was supposed to but also advise on loans, insurance opened a separate account for my made up their mind to stay connected peak of price and valuations cycle have better change of continu-
share details of all my existing invest- and saving taxes. business expenses and earnings. It with SahajMoney for their long-term ation and deliver better returns than lumpsum investments.
ments and also asked questions about Agarwal didn’t have much idea gives me a visibility of how much I am financial planning. Their goal is to Keep an eye out for risks this year and utilize cross asset expo-
my risk profile, it struck me that about insurance either. He did have a earning and spending specifically for retire in their late forties before which sure for better investment outcomes. Astute investors are eyeing
nobody had ever sought these details health insurance policy of ₹5 lakh the clinic vis-à-vis my personal they want their son to study abroad. gold and bonds as compelling assets in their portfolios, driven by
their attractive valuations and potential for diversification. Gold,
is nearing its all-time high. It has historically served as a hedge
against inflation and economic uncertainties, making it a sought-

Foreign inflows into Indian bonds spike to 6-year high in 2023 after safe haven during turbulent times. Simultaneously, bonds
present an intriguing proposition as declining yields can provide
large capital gains through duration strategies. In times of market
volatility, bonds tend to exhibit stability, offering a counterbal-
Reuters bought government bonds bor, head emerging markets, Indian bonds in the Govern- year as central banks across the aggressively, as that will ance to the potential roller-coaster ride in equities. Equities have
feedback@livemint.com worth ₹35,000 crore ($4.2 bil- fixed income at BNP Paribas ment Bond Index-Emerging world tightened monetary pol- enhance the yield differen- enjoyed ultra-low volatility in 2023 and 2024 could mark a
lion) in October-December, Asset Management, said. Markets and its index suite icy, hurting demand for emerg- tials,” Andrew Holland, chief departure from this trend. As markets become more unpredicta-

F
oreign investment in
Indian government bonds
saw a remarkable jump in
the last three months of 2023,
with JPMorgan’s decision to
add the debt to its indexes
boosting inflows to a six-year
high.
Overseas investors net
pushing the full-year tally to
₹59,800 crore, the highest
since 2017, clearing house data
showed. Fund managers expect
more inflows in the New Year.
“We are positive on India
into 2024 and also expect
inflows into the local currency
asset class,” Jean-Charles Sam-
India’s inflation should be
contained and fiscal risks well-
controlled, and this, along with
rate cuts from the Federal
Reserve, could push the
10-year benchmark bond yield
to below 7%, Sambor said.
In September, JPMorgan
announced it will include some
from June. This should lead to
incremental inflows of around
$25 billion into bonds, accord-
ing to analysts.
India’s 10-year benchmark
bond yield was trading at 7.20%
on Monday, after falling 15 basis
points (bps) in 2023. The yield
had jumped in the previous
ing market assets. Now, the
Fed has indicated it is ready to
cut interest rates in 2024 and
many expect the Reserve Bank
of India (RBI) to follow suit.
“Foreign inflows in bonds
should continue due to (index)
inclusion and could see a boost
if the Federal Reserve cuts rates
executive, Avendus Capital
Public Markets Alternate Strat-
egies, said.
Holland expects the Fed to
cut rates by 100-150 b bps in
2024 and RBI to lower rates by
at least 50 bps. The US 10-year
bond yield has fallen to around
3.85% on rate cut hopes.
ble, the need for diversification becomes paramount. Gold, with
its low correlation to traditional asset classes, emerges as an ideal
diversifier, providing a safeguard against the potential pitfalls of
an increasingly volatile equity market. Investors, therefore, find
themselves drawn to the dual allure of gold’s impending breakout
and the stabilizing influence of bonds, constructing a robust
strategy to weather the uncertainties of 2024.
Sahil Kapoor is market strategist & head-products, DSP Mutual
Fund.

Returns on investments
Building a portfolio is a complex exercise, and it has to be maintained, too. A person’s portfolio holds different types of assets based
on his/her financial goals, and each asset class gives different types of returns, which is why a portfolio must have an ideal mix of
financial products. One must also keep in mind the volatility risk of the asset class, liquidity, lock-in rules and taxation. Here's a look
at how four commonly used asset types—equity, cash, gold and fixed income—have done in different periods.

18re.tu7rn4th%at Returns (in %)

Equity (Sensex) Cash (liquid fund)
The
s given
Sensex ha e-year Gold Fixed income (fixed deposit)
18.74 over a on d
perio
14.39 14.8 14.9 14.85
13.06

9
8.13 7.3
6.86 6.8 6.37
6.1
4.91 5 5.01

1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS 10 YEARS

Data as on 29 December 2023. Equity is the benchmark Sensex return (price); cash refers to the average return for liquid funds category as
defined by Valueresearchonline; gold refers to domestic gold prices available on Valueresearchonline; and fixed income is historic SBI fixed
deposit rates. All returns are annualized.
PARAS JAIN/MINT Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices,Value Research,SBI
12 TueSday, 2 January 2024
MuMbaI
OUR VIEW
Expand India’s economy
but not as an end in itself
Our robust macro data hides a disquieting micro story that should be addressed in 2024.
The government and central bank ought to ensure that faster growth is more equitable too
I
n the last week of 2023, India’s share in
global market capitalization hit a record
3.8%, according to Bloomberg data, con-
solidating the country’s position as the fifth
biggest equity market, just behind Hong
Kong. In nominal terms, India’s GDP is also
the world’s fifth largest (by purchasing power
parity, or PPP, it is the third largest). According
to the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
India will move into fourth place in 2025 and
reach the third spot in 2027, with a projected
economy of $5.4 trillion. Some might see this
parallel between GDP and stock markets as
further vindication of the IMF’s “star per-
former” tag. Indeed, we have seen a reiteration
of faith in the Indian economy by domestic and
overseas investors, both of whom have been
pouring money into our capital markets.
Although it seems as if stock indices have run
ahead of fundamentals at present, they must
ultimately reflect the underlying strength or
weakness of the Indian economy in the context
of its future potential. Our fifth position in
global GDP league tables as well as the market
value of all listed shares is a cause for celebra-
tion. It is a measure of how far we have come
from the times when India’s plodding rate of
growth in the pre-reform period was referred
to derisively as “the Hindu rate of growth.”
Look a little deeper, however, and it is equally
clear that we have no space for complacency.
For all the progress made in our 75-plus years
as an independent nation—remember former
British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s
scathing comment, “India is no more a single
country than the equator”—we still have a long
way to go. So, even as we overtake our former
colonial master in economic terms, the dawn of
2024 is a good time for a reality check. On a
The 16th Finance Commission must fund the third tier
AJIT RANADE
T
he Finance Commission must be set up
every five years by the President of
India, as per Article 280 of the Consti-
tution. The main purpose of this statutory
body is to recommend the split of net tax rev-
enues. Its recommendations are almost
always accepted by the Union government.
The commission is supposed to use its judge-
is a Pune-based economist.
ment regarding vertical and horizontal equity
while deciding a fair split. The former refers
to the split between the Union and states, and
the latter across all states. There is no mathe-
matical formula, but even then, every com-
mission has tried to be as fair and transparent
as possible. Since the first Finance Commis-
sion set up in 1951, the vertical split has gone
from 10% of the divisible pool for states to
42% in the 14th, before retreating to 41% in
the 15th Finance Commission.
While 42% might seem generous, it is not
as much if you note the basic asymmetries in
India’s federal structure. Purists who are
peeved by my use of the word ‘federal,’ since
the word is absent in the Constitution, might
VIEWS
ISTOCKPHOTO
Solow’s insights hold invaluable
lessons for the Indian economy
The late economist’s voluminous body of work offers the country five lessons of special significance
M. SureSh BaBu
is a professor of economics at IIT Madras.
R
obert M. Solow, MIT Institute
professor emeritus, a path-break-
ing economist whose work influ-
enced generations of economists, died
on 21 December, aged 99. Though pop-
ularly known for his characterization of
technology and its role in economic
growth, Solow’s profound influence on
research in economics spanned numer-
ous sets of issues both in macro and
microeconomics. Engaged teaching
and collegial collaboration as an ethos
in academia owes much to him. Several
themes that Solow pioneered during
his 74-year association with the MIT’s
per-capita income basis, India ranks 139th by department of economics are impor-
GDP (nominal) and 127th by GDP (PPP). And tant for India’s economic policy.
First, Solow’s 1956 paper, ‘A Contri-
even as the proportion of Indians living below bution to the Theory of Economic
the poverty line has fallen dramatically, India is Growth,’ modelled how increases in
still home to an unconscionably large—per- population and capital investment will
haps the largest globally—number of people not sustain economic growth. Rather, it
who barely meet their subsistence needs. In is technological progress, considered
broadly, that largely creates growth. If
terms of social development indicators, access India is to achieve higher per-capita
to health, education, sanitation, potable water, income by 2047, then substantial
infant and female mortality, law and order, emphasis must be placed on accelerat-
etc, we rank below many of our peers among ing productivity. This matters on three
emerging markets. While social indicators in counts: (a) It is the most important way
to enhance welfare, (b) it is the only pos-
some parts of the country are comparable to sible generator of growth once labour
those in advanced countries, across large and capital factor accumulation hits a
swathes of our landmass, they are worse than plateau; and (c) it is vital for maintaining
in sub-Saharan Africa. Sadly, the benefits of and enhancing international competi-
economic growth and social development have tiveness. Though India has a long tradi-
tion of research on productivity, trans-
not been evenly distributed across the country.
Regional inequalities have widened the post-
reform decades, even as income inequalities
have sharpened. Bull markets are likely to
aggravate this trend. Despite reports of rising
numbers investing in stocks and a dramatic
increase in demat folios and mutual fund www.livemint.com
holdings, only a small fraction of our total pop-
ulation is in this game and hence in a position
to benefit from equity gains. According to the SENSEX 21,140.48 æ 30.20
STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
India is now
chief of the National Stock Exchange, as of last one nation,
October, only 17% of all Indian households
one grid
South joins national
were invested in stocks.
power grid, completing
integration of India into
seamless network for
delivering electricity
B Y U TPAL B HASKAR,
Widening disparities in income and wealth
A MRIT R AJ &
A RUNDHATI R AMANATHAN
·························
NEW DELHI/CHENNAI
I n a potential game-chang-
er, South India has joined
the national electricity grid,
completing the integration of
the entire country into one
are never good news in an electoral democracy.
seamless network for deliver-
ing power to consumers.
Not only will it provide relief
to the power-short southern
region, it will also improve
transmission and facilitate bet-
ter management of demand,
ensuring the stability of the
electricity grid.
Especially not when general elections are less
Easier availability of power
could also lead to lower tariffs
in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka,
Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pu-
ducherry.
Together with a proposal to
separate the so-called carriage-
and-content operations of ex-
isting power distribution com-
than six months away. Both the government
panies, the move has the po-
tential to bring about a struc-
tural transformation of the
power sector.
The Press Trust of India re-
ported on Wednesday that the
power ministry will introduce a
cabinet note on the carriage-
and-content proposal in a
and central bank (to a lesser extent) have their
month’s time. This will enable
people and companies in India
to buy electricity from a power
company of their choice and
have it supplied to them by the
distribution network that serv-
ices the neighbourhood in
which they live.
Mint had reported on 27
task cut out for them. They must ensure that
September about proposed
faster growth is also more equitable. Our strong
macro data hides a disquieting micro story that
Mint is also available for R8 with
Hindustan Times in Delhi-NCR only
must be addressed in 2024.
MY VIEW | MUSING MACRO
take a pause! Yes, India is a union of states, in its tax revenue raising capacity, can it
and the Union government can create, alter, access banks and bond investors? The short
divide and even extinguish states. The states answer is no. If it is already indebted to the
of India did not pre-exist and nor did they Union government (most states are), then it
come together voluntarily to form a federa- needs permission to borrow. And accessing
tion. In that sense, they are the creation of foreign banks or bond investors is ruled out.
the Centre and have very limited sover- The third asymmetry arises from residu-
eignty. But for a country with a sixth of the ary powers as per the Con-
world’s population, where several individual stitution. Even in the con-
states are larger than most countries of the current list of the Seventh
world, the fiscal autonomy of these sub-sov- Schedule, the Union gov-
ereign entities is a very important issue. ernment has a greater say.
The first asymmetry relates to revenue And what is left unsaid or
raising capacity and expenditure obliga- unspecified is automati-
tions. Two-thirds of all government
expenses for the delivery of basic public ser-
cally prohibited to the
state’s legislative, execu-
vices are the responsibility of the local or
state government. This excludes develop-
tive or fiscal domain. All
amendments to the Sev-
ment or capital expenditures. But only one- enth Schedule since the
third of the revenue-raising capabilities are 1950s have led to increas-
at the state level. Local governments, i.e. the ing centralization, and
third tier below the state, have negligible creeping expansion of the
taxing powers. This is a structural asymme- role of the Union govern-
try. To the extent that the finance commis- ment. Subjects such as agriculture, land,
sion’s task is a ‘gap filling exercise’ of funding labour, employment and health, which were
the deficit at the state level, it becomes to be exclusively in the states’ domain, are
imperative that the asymmetry be counter- increasingly dominated by national schemes
vailed by a larger vertical split to the states. such as an employment guarantee, health
The second asymmetry relates to states’ insurance and direct benefits. Not to forget
autonomy in raising debt. If a state falls short the Pay Commissions and similar conduits of
New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Chandigarh*, Pune*
CONTENT PARTNER
NIFTY 6,301.65 æ 2.35
changes in the Electricity Act of
2003 to implement this propos-
al.
Of the five regional grids in
the country—northern, south-
ern, eastern, north-eastern and
western—only the southern
one had not been connected to
the national grid.
The integration was achieved
through the commissioning
of the Raichur-Solapur 765
kilovolt (kV) single-circuit
transmission line by state-
owned Power Grid Corp. of
India Ltd.
“This line of 208 circuit kilo-
metres (ckm) and 765/400 kV
substations at Raichur and
Sholapur has been commis-
sioned five months ahead of its
contractual schedule, i.e. 31
May 2014 at a cost of approxi-
mately `815 crore,” the power
ministry said on Wednesday in
a statement.
“With this interconnection,
the Indian power system has
entered into a new era and be-
come one of the largest operat-
ing synchronous grids in the
world with about 232 GW (gi-
gawatts) of installed power
generation capacity,” the state-
ment said.
Experts welcomed the move.
Investments in transmission
and distribution have not been
commensurate with the invest-
ments made in generation.
“Southern region is a region
starved of electricity. This will
provide a huge benefit as it will
help in the reduction of elec-
tricity cost which are high due
to the transmission con-
straint,” said Shubhranshu Pat-
naik, senior director, consult-
ing, energy and resources,
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu In-
dia Pvt. Ltd, an audit and con-
sultancy firm. “The immediate
benefit will be the availability
of the power traded on the ex-
changes.”
According to the Central
Electricity Authority, India’s
apex power sector planning
body, Puducherry, Karnataka
and Kerala had a peak power
shortage of 8.1%, 5.8% and
5.5% respectively in August.
Debasish Mishra, a senior di-
rector at the same firm, added:
“It is an excellent develop-
ment, which will help in inter-
regional transfer of power from
surplus West and East to pow-
er-deficit South.”
A case in point being Tamil
Nadu, where according to
Tamil Nadu Generation and
Distribution Corp. Ltd, indus-
trial units and commercial es-
tablishments have 20% power
TURN TO PAGE 2®
It should find an
explicit way to
carve out funds
for local bodies
that India needs
to empower
financially
DOLLAR `61.91 æ `0.11
Trust vote today: Chief minister Arvind Kejriwal is greeted by Congress
MLAs Yusuf Haroon and Arvinder Singh Lovely after the oath­taking
ceremony in the Delhi legislative assembly on Wednesday. Delhi’s AAP
government faces a crucial test with the BJP signalling it will vote
against a motion of confidence on Thursday.
India cancels
AgustaWestland
chopper deal
B Y A MAN M ALIK
aman.m@livemint.com
·························
NEW DELHI
I ndia on Wednesday can-
celled a controversial `3,600
crore defence deal to buy 12
helicopters from AgustaWest-
land International Ltd (AWL)
following allegations that the
company bribed Indian offi-
cials to secure the deal.
The choppers were to have
been deployed in the commu-
nication squadron of the Indi-
an Air Force, which ferries the
president, prime minister and
other important ministers.
The defence ministry said in
a statement that the deal,
signed on 8 February 2010, was
being cancelled “on the
grounds of breach of pre-con-
tract integrity pact and the
agreement by AWL”.
Integrity pacts are inserted
into contracts to help prevent
corruption in deals.
The chopper deal became
controversial after investiga-
tions in Italy revealed that top
officials of the company may
have paid Indian government
officials and Indian Air Force
(IAF) officers, including
former air chief S.P. Tyagi,
bribes to win the deal. Tyagi
has denied the charges. Agus-
TURN TO PAGE 2®
Thursday, January 2, 2014
NATION: Ashutosh
Indian politics >7
INDUSTRY: Auto makers end 2013 on weak
note as December sales skid >3
ECONOMY: The new Indian consumer
economy >4
MARKETS: Bombay Bullion Association eyes
5% stake in MCX >8
EURO `85.06 æ `0.22
MANVENDER VASHIST/PTI
See page 3
MIXED PICTURE
Annual survey shows industrial
investment contracted in 2011­12
B Y K IRTHI V . R AO
kirthi.r@livemint.com
·························
NEW DELHI
I
ndustrial investment contract-
ed 9% in 2011-12, provisional
industries data released by the
statistics ministry on Tuesday
showed.
However, the provisional An-
nual Survey of Industries data
showed that most of this decline
was accounted for by the fall in
working capital investment, be-
cause net fixed capital invest-
ment rebounded, growing 25%
from a 0.8% decline in 2010-11.
The Annual Survey of Indus-
tries is the principal source of in-
dustrial statistics and covers all
factories employing 10 or more
workers using power and those
employing 20 or more workers
without using power.
According to the survey, in-
vestment in raw materials, half-
finished and finished goods, or
what is called physical working
capital investment, declined 61%
in 2011-12 after growing by 73%
and 162% in the two previous
years.
Total investment declined at a
time when factory profits grew
17% .
This is in line with the revised
national income data released by
the ministry in January that
Vol.8 No.2 `4.00 in Delhi­NCR/`5.00 outside Delhi­NCR
Varshney on
GOLD `29,630 Æ `100
2014: Banking QUICK EDIT
in India will Beyond
change—body freebies
and soul
mint ESSAY
B Y T AMAL B ANDYOPADHYAY
tamal.b@livemint.com
·························
T o use a cliché, there will be a
tectonic shift in the Indian
banking landscape in 2014. Both
the body and the soul of the `80
trillion banking industry will
change. A set of new banks will
get the regulator’s approval,
some foreign banks operating in
India may decide in favour of lo-
cal incorporation to get near-na-
tional treatment, and new norms
for early recognition of financial
distress and faster resolution and
recovery will help curb rising
bad assets and improve the
health of the banking system.
As an offshoot, Indian firms,
especially those operating in the
infrastructure space and adding
to the growing pile of bad loans
at banks, will become more ag-
gressive in selling assets to
shrink debt. In 2013, close to a
dozen Indian companies either
sold or made their intention
clear to sell assets, to pare at
least `3.5 trillion worth of debt,
as rising interest costs and di-
minishing margins took their
toll on growth. This trend will
TURN TO PAGE 24®
INDUSTRIAL STATISTICS
Key data from the provisional Annual Survey of Industries.
Gross capital
2011-12 (Provisional) in R billion
formation
Net fixed 2,034
investment
Net value
added
Interest paid 1,206
3%
Number of factories
217,554
showed the economy had grown
6.2%, expanding much slower
than the 9% level of the previous
year, mainly due to a sharp fall in
industrial and agricultural sector
growth.
Experts said the decline in
working capital investment, even
as fixed investment picked up,
could be due to the balancing of
inventory levels after high invest-
ments in stocks in the previous
years.
The cost of holding invento-
ries rose as interest rates in-
creased after February 2010 with
the winding down of monetary
expansion after the 2008-09 fi-
nancial crisis, experts added.
LIVEMINT.COM
THEIR VIEW
lating the findings to actionable policy interactions and the resulting economic
instruments needs an explicit push. behaviour.
Second, returning to his own seminal Fourth, Solow emphasizes how edu-
work on the theory of growth after 60 cation is not the solution to every prob-
years, Solow asked: “Why did we lem, but an educated population is still
assume that there is perfect competi- necessary for societies to progress. “We
tion and that factors are paid their per- tend to measure education by input, not
fect-competition marginal products? output. We count how many years peo-
How can we explain a sustained and sig- ple have been in school…. [I]nstead of
nificant divergence between non-farm worrying so much about quantities of
sector productivity and real wages? education, we ought to be thinking
Despite some quibbles about the meas- about the content.” His remarks are of
urement of the two, there is no doubt paramount importance for India to tap
that they have diverged. But that goes its demographic dividend and fulfil the
against everything we thought we aspirations of its youth. The content of
knew!” Solow’s work on the implica- education needs to be in tune with the
tions of imperfect competition on the changing times, especially in an era in
macroeconomy paved the way for a which automation and demand for high
comprehensive analysis of inequality. It skill labour is increasing. The stock of
led to a ‘marriage’ between a standard
neoclassical analysis of how income
shares of capital and labour are deter-
mined and the distribution of rents,
human capital could be the main driver
of growth for India, as it contributes to
the productivity of both labour and cap-
ital and enhances technological innova-
which is determined partly by eco- tion. However, a prerequisite for this is
nomic and mostly by political factors. ensuring equitable and quality educa-
Given an intensification of monopoly tion for the youth.
power in the Indian economy, the A fifth insight from Solow’s life and
implications of distribution for inequal- research is the value of intellectual and
ity assume significance, as it impacts professional commitment to students
our demand and growth trajectories. through active mentorship. In his own
Third, Solow emphasized the need to words: “You only have really good ideas
study economic history. Studying this once in a while. I would rather teach a
would help economists understand the really bright student than write a mildly
social and institutional contexts in interesting paper.” According to MIT
which economic models work or fail to News: “When it came to teaching under-
work. In his 1985 paper titled ‘Economic graduates, Solow would annually tear
History and Economics,’ he put this ele- up his old lecture notes, and force him-
gantly: “I suspect that the attempt to self to re-examine how he was present-
construct economics as an axiomati- ing material to them. As a graduate
cally based hard science is doomed to advisor, Solow would put in long hours
fail…. Unfortunately, however, econom- providing detailed feedback to students
ics is a social science…. Moreover, all about their research papers.” Solow’s
narrowly economic activity is embed- decades-long interaction with Paul
ded in a web of social institutions, cus- Samuelson also provides an example of
toms, beliefs, and attitudes. Concrete how important it is to engage with col-
outcomes are indubitably affected by leagues to improve scholarship and
these background factors, some of research. A commitment to students
which change slowly and gradually, and teaching, as also to open-minded
others erratically.” In the Indian con- discussions in a collegial atmosphere,
text, a thorough understanding of eco- was among the fine examples he set that
nomic history is needed to grasp differ- Indian academia must learn from.
ent kinds of social arrangements, their These are the author’s personal views.
24 PAGES
OIL $110.80 ®
A rvind Kejriwal has
begun to deliver on
his promise to shower
freebies. He has cut the
True equity starts with
price of electricity as well
as offered free water to
residents of New Delhi
ensuring that everyone has
up to a certain minimum
level of consumption.
These policies will not
benefit the really poor
and will blow a neat hole
in the finances of the
Delhi state government.
Subsidies are always
politically attractive. But
here is a cautionary tale
for the Aam Aadmi Party.
access to the most basic of
Over the past decade, the
two Manmohan Singh
governments have spent
a cumulative `11 trillion
on subsidies, a large
chunk of which are
captured by large farmers
(the fertilizer subsidy)
and the middle class (fuel
subsidies).
India—and its poor—
needs.
would have been far
better off if even half that
money had been spent
on asset creation: roads,
schools, hospitals,
irrigation projects, etc.
Kejriwal means well.
He should use tax
revenues to build rather
than to subsidize.
MI K K I K E N DA L L
4,072
Growth since 2010-11
-9%
25%
8,363 19%
37%
5%
Workers employed
10,438,522
Source: Annual Survey of Industries, January 2014
SARVESH SHARMA/MINT
“The rate of interest was be-
coming higher, so there was an
incentive to lower stocks,” said
Pulapre Balakrishnan, director of
the Thiruvananthapuram-based
Centre for Development Studies.
Interest paid by factories in-
creased 20% in 2010-11 and 37%
in 2011-12, the data showed.
Pronab Sen, chairman of the
National Statistical Commis-
sion , said: “Normally, inventory
levels follow a cyclical pattern
and this was a period of uncer-
tainty.”
“This kind of a draw-down is
usually in a situation where de-
TURN TO PAGE 2®
influence. As chairman of the PM’s Advisory must focus, and where it can make a historic
Council, Bibek Debroy has written in these contribution, is strengthening the third tier.
pages, “There was a history, legacy, (and a) Even after 30 years of Panchayati Raj legisla-
centralization mindset and shortage syn- tion, and even with increased demand for
drome behind the Seventh Schedule... (and governance and accountability from local
hence) it deserves independent scrutiny.” bodies, they remain helplessly hobbled,
Under Arvind Panagariya, the 16th either without funds and functionaries or at
Finance Commission has the mercy of their state governments. The
its work cut out. It has to recommendations of most state finance
address these structural commissions are routinely flouted or
imbalances. Also, it has to ignored. How can a city council or a pancha-
contend with increased yat have greater say in how the local school
funding needs for the pro- system is run? Or how can garbage collection
vision of national level pub- improve? Can a local government levy a
lic goods, such as meeting
net-zero emission targets.
small property tax on an airport project in its
precincts? The 16th Finance Commission
Some states contribute dis-
proportionately to forest
must find a way to carve out resources from
the Consolidated Fund of India. For starters,
cover and biodiversity. local bodies together must have access to at
How can they be compen- least 2% of GDP annually, as against 28% kept
sated, even as their own for the Union government alone. Let this
revenue-raising capacity transfer be unconditional, and bypass both
remains constrained? This the Centre and state machinery. Successive
calls for a bigger central pool. But widening Finance Commissions since the 11th have
inter-state disparities call for more grants- referred to local bodies. The 13th did a lucid
in-aid. What conditionality will the Com- analysis of the issue. Its recommendations
mission attach? Is more aid to backward include amending Articles 280 and 243-I,
states taking away from the welfare spend- which is eminently doable. The 16th Finance
ing needs of advanced states? Commission should take this to its logical
A key area where the new Commission conclusion and empower the third tier.
LIVEMINT.COM VIEWS Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai 13

MY VIEW | GeNeRaL DISequILIBRIuM M I N T C U R AT O R

Four elections and a rate cut: The This educational idea can take
on a youth mental health crisis
world is in for an exciting 2024 A new academic focus in America on the problem holds promise

Known unknowns and events in the political as well as economic arenas could combine in multiple ways to yield surprises

ISTOCKPHOTO

LISA JARVIS
is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering
biotech, health care and the pharmaceutical
industry.
RAJRISHI SINGHAL
is a senior journalist and author of the
forthcoming book ‘Slip, Stitch and Stumble’.
@rajrishisinghal

L
ast year saw a stream of dismal head-
lines about kids’ mental health. Chil-
dren and teens in the US are strug-

T
his column appears on the second
working day of the new year, and,
as is customary, it tries to discern the
path ahead. Amid the known-un-
knowns, some developments look
almost certain. It is fair to say that the
world will continue to be influenced by geopoliti-
cal shifts and conflicts in the first quarter of 2024.
The war in Ukraine and humanitarian crisis in the
Levant look like spilling over to the new year and
casting a shadow over the world economy. The US
economy might finally buck a recession, the
Eurozone will continue its search for the elusive
growth sauce and global central banks might
finally loosen their hold on monetary policy. This
much seems a done deal. But it will be domestic
politics that will hold the key to global economic
prospects in 2024.
The world is likely to witness over 50 national
elections during the year, of which four will be
decidedly critical for the global economy: the US,
Russia, the EU and India. The US presidential
election will be a closely followed political event,
what with Donald Trump unrelenting in his come-
back bid despite formidable hurdles erected by
the nation’s legal and regulatory institutions;
opinion polls show him as the most popular
choice. If he somehow manages to sidestep his
legal challenges and win, some economic out-
comes are predictable: climate denial, withdrawal
from multilateral institutions and plurilateral
agreements, rattling of trade sabres, anti-immi-
gration laws, and a greater degree of protection-
ism. If, on the other hand, Trump is eventually
barred from contesting on legal grounds, it will
then be more of an open contest, with the US
economy’s trajectory between now and November
playing a large role. It is also possible for part of the
campaign to spill into the streets.
In Russia, Vladimir Putin’s re-election as presi-
dent seems like a foregone conclusion, even
though some other contenders may dare enter the
ring. If Russia had free and fair elections that pre-
cluded the incarceration of opposition leaders and
allowed for a true alternative to emerge, it would be
reasonable to assume some geopolitical reversion
to the mean, with its attendant favourable impact
on the global economy, especially commodity pri-
ces. But Putin’s re-election seems a certainty at this
point, and that will have its own economic reper-
cussions. The Eurozone story is different, where
growth will continue to be elusive. The emergence
of popular right-wing leaders across an expanding
swathe of the continent will possibly mean an EU
settling for tighter immigration barriers, higher
trade-protection walls and lower climate ambi-
tions, even as it tries to reverse recessionary
impulses in some of its key economies, such as
Germany and other industrial members.
That brings us to the Indian general elections
which are likely to be held in either April or May. In
the run-up to the elections, there is likely to be a
shift in government expenditure patterns at both
the Centre and states, with a pivot from capital
expenditure to consumption. Competition among
political parties to offer welfare benefits is
expected to intensify, with the Bharatiya Janata
Party government in New Delhi likely to expand
and deepen its portfolio of social-sector schemes.
Multiple forecasts, including from the Reserve
Bank of India (RBI), have India’s economic growth
slowing down marginally during 2024-25.
India’s problem will be balancing a runaway
capital market with slowing consumption demand.
One indicator of the misalignment is visible in
non-financial corporate results: robust profit
growth looks asymmetrical when compared with
tepid top-line growth, which suggests rising pre-
miumization alongside the wringing out of some
cost efficiencies. The private sector’s reluctance to
match steps with the government in increasing
capital expenditure probably stems from concerns
over unsustainable demand. The question mark
over demand growth in 2024 is likely to loom
larger as the elected government may have to
tighten its fiscal belt after elections. Consequently,
the giddy rise in market capitalization seems
skewed when viewed through the lens of still
largely somnolent corporate capex, tardy foreign
direct investment inflows, and the Indian market’s
stratospheric valuations when compared with
other emerging markets.
One economic factor, for a change, is likely to
influence domestic politics, especially in some
countries that have national elections scheduled in
2024: the timing of rate cuts by their central banks.
Wall Street expects the US Federal Reserve to start
cutting rates from June 2024 onwards, after
achieving a relatively fuller transmission of past
rate hikes. The European Central Bank is also
likely to follow suit around the same time, given
that inflationary tendencies in the Eurozone have
abated somewhat. It will be interesting to see RBI’s
chosen path, which has usually implemented rate
actions after the Fed’s meetings. The question on
everybody’s minds: Will RBI cut interest rates
before Indian elections, despite volatility in food
and fuel inflation?
As always, there are two jokers in the new year
pack. A lot will depend on China’s role in global geo-
political shifts and whether it can get back on a fast-
growth path after a disappointing 2023. But the sur-
prise of 2024 could well be Japan, as it starts raising
interest rates out of negative territory, reflates the
economy and displays nascent growth signs.
All in all, 2024 promises to be exciting, political
and full of surprises.
gling with higher levels of depression and
anxiety. Rates of suicides and eating disor-
ders are on the rise. Now there’s reason to
be hopeful: An experiment in Oregon
could point the way to a novel solution.
Much of the last two years was spent try-
ing to analyse the root cause of alarming
statistics rather than discussing what to do
about them, though there has been some
positive change. New guidelines recom-
mending widespread screening for child-
hood anxiety and depression were a good
start, and so was the Biden administration’s
investment in helping connect families to
behavioural and health services. Several
states have expanded training for educa-
tors and improved access to telehealth.
These cannot completely address the
fundamental problem: The number of kids
who need help exceeds the number of
available mental health providers. The
paediatric mental health workforce hasn’t
expanded despite ever-growing demand.
A 2019 study that used US National Survey
of Children’s Health data found that about
half of the kids with a mental health disor-
der did not receive treatment. The shortfall
is likely even worse now.
“We need to try something new—some-
thing that’s radically different than what
we’ve been doing, which is clearly not
working,” child clinical psychologist Katie
McLaughlin told me.
McLaughlin recently left Harvard to be
the executive director of the Ballmer Insti-
tute for Children’s Behavioral Health,
launched at the University of Oregon in
2022 aiming to expand the workforce by
creating a new type of mental health pro-
vider, an endeavour made possible by a
$425 million gift from Connie and Steve
Ballmer. The bachelor’s-level position will
work in community settings to identify
struggling kids and offer brief and early
interventions to help them.
During their last two years of college,
students enrolled at Ballmer will receive
intensive hands-on training on evidence-
backed interventions. They will gain expe-
rience at Portland-area elementary and
high schools and could later choose to
embed at paediatricians’ offices, commu-
nity centres or preschools. On graduating,
they will be ready to go out into the field.
These students won’t replace school
counsellors or psychiatrists who have
graduate-level degrees, but in an ideal
world, brief interventions could prevent
some kids from needing more intensive
There aren’t enough mental healthcare
professionals for teens and kids ISTOCKPHOTO
resources, freeing up people with
advanced degrees to focus on those who
need them most.
There’s good reason to believe the Ore-
gon experiment will work. The UK pio-
neered a highly successful ‘low intensity’
mental health workforce as part of a 2008
plan to expand access to services, which
involved establishing a new type of pro-
vider called a “Psychological Well-being
Practitioner,” who offers brief interven-
tions to struggling adults. Anyone who
doesn’t benefit is referred to more inten-
sive therapy. An analysis found that the
program had a major impact on lowering
depression and anxiety levels in the UK.
The model is sound, but the experiment
in Oregon has much to prove. McLaughlin
will need to produce robust data that her
students are having a positive impact on
children—but that evidence shouldn’t take
long to collect. The first cohort heads into
classrooms next fall. McLaughlin says any-
one who interacts with a Ballmer student
will be given an opportunity to offer feed-
back on the experience, allowing a quick
assessment on whether a child or family
was satisfied with their experience and in
time, whether the services provided actu-
ally improve kids’ mental health.
The Ballmer Institute is essentially cre-
ating a new profession, which entails some
practical challenges. The first hurdle was
cleared in late 2022, when the state higher
education commission approved the pro-
gram. The next is working with US policy-
makers to establish standards for becom-
ing certified as a child behavioural health
specialist and defining the kind of services
such a professional will be allowed to
deliver. And then there’s convincing insur-
ers that the care provided by these new
professionals is worth paying for.
If this experiment works, other institu-
tions might consider adopting the new
degree, in theory helping to establish a new
layer of support for children around the
country.
The price tag on the Ballmer’s experi-
ment can’t be ignored. Not every institu-
tion will be handed more than $400 mil-
lion to try fix the mental health crisis. But if
Ballmer can show the concept works, it
shouldn’t be too hard for others to follow.
The price of the status quo is just too high
to ignore. ©BLOOMBERG

MY VIEW | a vISIBLe haND

From a year of acrimony to one packed with acronyms

this year. Nasa also plans to launch a space-
NARAYAN RAMACHANDRAN craft that will explore one of Jupiter’s largest
moons, Europa.
LLMs: If there was one phenomenon that
defined 2023, it was artificial intelligence
(AI), particularly large language models
year-on-year from a peak of 5.5% just about
a year ago, the highest level reached in 40
years. The cat-and-mouse game between
the Fed and inflation (and by extension,
financial markets) will continue in 2024,
with the Fed on alert until it sees the level
Israel Aerospace Industries, both companies
associated with the IDF. The US contributed
a total of about $1.6 billion to this system.
The IDF also continues to use the Israeli
made Uzi (name after Major Uziel Gal) sub-
machine gun, along with the modern Negev
political change will compound the omni-
present volatility. Mexico will most likely
elect its first woman president since both
candidates of the principal parties are
women. Elections are welcome, but illiberal-
ism pervades many of these countries.

T
he year 2023 was characterized by a
belligerent, acrimonious world. And
2024 promises more of the same. To
try and make sense of it, here is a somewhat
acronymous look at the world ahead. Some
of these initialisms made it into our con-
sciousness only last year. Others have been
in usage for a while. We can expect all of
(LLMs). It is likely that OpenAI released
ChatGPT 4.5, its latest LLM version, by
stealth just before year end. This version will
represent a marked improvement over
ChatGPT 3.0 that took the world by storm
early last year. Google’s Gemini and Meta’s
LLaMA are among its many competitors.
Now that this race is well and truly on, look
coming down to 2%. Only once that happens NG7 general purpose machine gun. The ‘India’ versus NDA: The Congress-led coa-
will the Fed likely start cut- Israeli air-force’s fleet of lition upstaged the BJP-led one last year
ting interest rates, perhaps fighters is made up of US with its choice of ‘INDIA’ as a moniker. But
during the second half of Here’s a set of F-16s. The US can exert BJP had the last laugh in the state elections
2024. This path has signifi- enormous clout over Israel by sweeping the states of Rajasthan, Madhya
cant implications for abbreviations and a resolution of the con- Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Elections are
emerging markets like flict will require the US to notoriously difficult to call several months
India for its impact on
through which be less ambivalent between ahead, but the NDA will likely return to

is chairman, InKlude Labs. Read

them to become more widely recognized
this year.
Narayan’s Mint columns at
www.livemint.com/
Isro: The Indian Space Research Organi-
sation had a banner 2023, with a pioneering
avisiblehand soft-landing on the south side of the moon.
On 1 January 2024, India’s space agency
placed its X-ray Polarimeter Satellite in
orbit, and has six major upcoming missions
this year. The most noteworthy are Gagan-
yaan 1, which will prepare India for manned
space flight, and Mangalyaan 2, India’s sec-
ond mission to Mars. Nasa and Isro will col-
laborate in launching NISAR, a high-resolu-
tion radar-based earth mapping system. At
the invitation of Nasa, an Indian astronaut
might visit the International Space Station
for AI in general, and LLMs in particular, to
make an even bigger impact in 2024. While
technological change is not new to the
world, a technology transformation that
grows by an order of magnitude (10 times or
more) in a single year is a new phenomenon.
The world’s first comprehensive regulations
to address the use of AI were drafted in the
EU and will likely be turned into an Act this
year. More regulation will undoubtedly fol-
low, but it may be unable to keep up with the
progress in this technology.
PCE: The preferred inflation indicator for
the US Federal Reserve Bank (FED) is the
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures
(PCE) Index. The core PCE dropped to 3.2%
domestic rates, capital
flows and the exchange
we could look at
rate. If the US does achieve
a soft-landing, it will be
what to expect
good for global trade and as we begin
markets as well.
Uzi: Not only did the another year
Ukraine conflict not end in
2023, another brutal war
between Israel and Hamas began last Octo-
ber. The weapon systems of the Israeli
Defence Forces (IDF) are primarily made
domestically or sourced from the US. For
instance, the now famous Iron Dome all-
weather air defence system was developed
by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and
war and peace. Continued
funding for Ukraine’s
weapons from both the US
and EU during 2024 will
become more difficult,
which may create condi-
tions for the discussion of a
resolution.
50%: Unprecedented so
far, countries that represent more than 50%
of the world’s population will go to elections
in 2024. In addition to India, big and small
countries like Bangladesh, Taiwan, the US,
Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Iran and
Pakistan will elect governments. At a time of
great uncertainty, the potential for massive
power in India for a third consecutive term,
a modern-day record for India. Super-fore-
casters at The Economist have put out a 70%
chance of the NDA securing more than 299
seats in the country’s 543-seat Lok Sabha.
C0P-29: The United Nations Conference
of the Parties (CoP), which meets annually to
further climate action, will meet next
November in Baku, Azerbaijan. Like the host
UAE in 2023, Azerbaijan is a hydrocarbon-
rich country. We can expect any commit-
ment to a timetable for the elimination of
hydrocarbons to remain elusive.
P.S: “DAE have a POV? HMU.” That’s my
(feeble) attempt to communicate in social
media vocabulary.
14 Tuesday, 2 January 2024
MuMbai BUSINESS OF LIFE WELLNESS LIVEMINT.COM

ISTOCKPHOTO

Living and leading with

emotional intelligence
Suppressing emotions
ISTOCKPHOTO

can lead to physical and

mental illness. Feeling
and managing one’s
emotions and that of a
team is a leadership skill
Hariprasad Varma
feedback@livemint.com
Four DIY tools to
aid post-workout
H
ow do you relate to your emo-
tions? Here is a simple test to
help determine that. As you
read the question I next have
for you, make a mental note of
where your focus and awareness are shifting.
The question is: How are you feeling right now?
muscle recovery
Take a pause. Pay attention to yourself and
write down the 3 words that came to your mind
in response to the question. If the words you jot- No time to stretch or get a sports
ted down weren’t the typical ‘okay’, ‘better’, massage? Here are some alternatives
‘think’, ‘tired’, or ‘hungry’, you are among the
few who are able to identify their feelings with-
out intellectualising it. You’ll be surprised to Shrenik Avlani
know how many people end up ‘thinking’ and feedback@livemint.com
articulating their thoughts even when invited to

I
share how they are ‘feeling’. f there is one thing you don’t want in 2024, it is an excess of
“Emotions are energy in motion. They need soreness after playing a sport or doing a workout. While
to move through us, be felt fully and expressed. stretching and sports massage certainly help keep post-activity
Otherwise, they get stored in different parts of pains away, we are often lazy about stretching and don’t get the
our body, and repressed emotions, over time, experience of empathy by people is often a con- subtler level. During the covid-19 lockdown time with a sports masseuse. However, that shouldn’t put you off
affect not just our health but also our relation- sequence of practising social awareness. years in 2020-21, I designed an inner work pro- from taking your recovery seriously. There are plenty of DIY
ships, work, and the ability to enjoy and live life
fully,” says Akanksha Thakore, a mental well-
This ability allows a person to make a choice
by being aware of both how they feel within
EXPRESSING gramme with musicians Shruti Bode and Aarti
Sivakumar, where we explored different rāgās
options in the market, and here are some you might want to add
to your wish list for the new year.
being professional and founder of Ripple Effect
in Mumbai. “Unfortunately, as a society we are
themselves, as well as a sense of the other per-
son’s emotional location. This is especially criti- EMOTIONS of Indian classical music and the emotions they
evoked. The programme enabled participants
Therabody Recovery Pulse Calf Sleeve: Therabody is the
company behind the popular percussion massage gun, Thera-
neither taught emotional intelligence nor cal for leaders to help them create a resonance to work with the patterns of their emotional gun. Specialising in recovery technology, the company has been
encouraged to practise it,” Thakore says. with everyone they engage with. u Emotional intelligence is a expressions and experiences and discover new working in elite sports for a while now. The Recovery Pulse is a
Emotional intelligence is broadly defined as composite of self-awareness, self- possibilities. portable version of its leg recovery system—especially for your
a person’s ability to recognize and contextualise FEEL THE ‘NAVA RASAS’ management and social awareness. “I found myself going through a plethora of calves—which are often the most painful spots for runners or
their emotions and the emotions of others. It is, I was introduced to the power of the emotional emotions ranging from ecstasy to deep melan- anyone who spends a lot of time on their feet at work. Also, unlike
therefore, both intrapersonal intelligence and landscapes within me through a set of pro- u Social awareness is a critical choly. I realised how freeing it is when you the leg recovery system, this calf sleeve uses compression and
interpersonal intelligence. grammes designed by my mentor Raghu quality needed in leaders as it helps explore the patterns in life from a space of curi- vibration to massage the calf muscles. This increases blood flow
While our rational intelligence focuses on Ananthanarayanan, a behavioural scientist them make decisions based on how osity, rather than fear,” said a participant who to the area, while removing the lactic acid build-up for quick
facts and logical reasoning, emotional intelli- and co-founder of Ritambhara Ashram in they feel and their understanding did not wish to be named. relief. The best part about these calf sleeves is that they are sleek
gence relates to how we apply those facts and Kotagiri, Tamil Nadu. The programmes ena- of the other person’s emotions. But no one could have put it better than and can easily fit into your carry-on bag.
reasoning. The cornerstones of emotional intel- bled me to discover the deeper connection eight-year-old Zara who’d tagged along with Truvaga: New research shows that
ligence are self-awareness, self-management, between emotions, healing and well-being u A healthy individual is one who her mother for the retreat. “When you have too From calf the vagus nerve has a profound effect
and social awareness. within myself. It also introduced me to prac- feels all the emotions and returns many big feelings, your emotional brain takes sleeves to cold on our stress levels, sleep and, even,
tices from yoga and Nātya śāstra, which trans- to a tranquil state after. over. It does not function like our ordinary
THE CORNERSTONES formed the way I looked at emotional intelli- brain. If you feel something, the feeling goes plunge tubs, DIY depression. There are two vagus
nerves on each side of our body run-
American organisational psychologist Tasha gence and well-being. u Our childhood programming through your emotional brain and comes out as tools to handle ning from the lower brain, through the
Eurich found in her research that 95 percent of Over the years, I’ve observed both in thera- influences how we express our action,” said Zara, sounding wise beyond her muscle soreness neck, and all the way down to your
people think they are self-aware, but only 10-15 peutic as well as coaching engagements that emotions. Stereotyped messages years. are at hand stomach. Stimulating these can relieve
percent actually are. She found that working many ailments in people often begin as a result about behaviours can lead us to stress, help you sleep better and it can
with team members who are not self-aware can of repression of their natural feelings. Social express only approved emotions EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE AT WORK be used to treat depression as well.
cut a team’s success in conditioning during while blocking those that are Research shows that in a corporate setting, Truvaga is a portable non-invasive hand-held vagus nerve stimu-
half leading to high our growing up years perceived to be negative. every unaddressed conflict can waste about lation device. All you need to do is put it against your neck for two
stress and low motiva- Performing arts like music, plays an important eight hours of company time, every day, in gos- minutes to activate the vagus nerve. Since it lowers stress and
tion levels. dance and theatre help us part in this. sip and other unproductive activities that lower helps in better sleep, it is a great device for all those who are
Self-awareness Children often to Nātya śāstra, the eight primary emotions employee morale and resources for the firm. active. Lower stress levels and better recovery means a healthier
needs to be comple- access our emotions and offer introject certain have their base in the ninth, śāntam. The nava “Getting in touch with the sensations of your and fitter you. It also ensure better performance every time you
mented with self- an outlet to express them social norms. This rasas are vīra (courage), ś rngāra (love), raudra body, labelling your feelings, creating a safe go out to play or exercise.
management, which leads to them giving (wrath), bībhatsa (disgust), hāsya (mirth or space for yourself to vent the emotions, and vali- Hyperice X Shoulder: Whether it’s regular gym, Crossfit,
can be described as a (an unconscious) per- humour), kāru ya (compassion), adbhuta (won- dating and accepting what you are feeling HIIT, weightlifting, boxing, climbing, playing racquet sports or
conscious cultivation of the ability to respond to mission to themselves to experience certain der), bhayānaka (fear), and śāntam (tranquility). before thinking how to deal with them, are even playing cricket (especially bowlers), your shoulders are usu-
emotions that arise in us in different contexts. emotions while blocking certain others. An alignment between one’s inner experi- some simple practices anyone can adopt in their ally always overworked. While percussion massage guns do
In the absence of this response capability, Some of the most common ways in which this ence with the outer expression is necessary to daily routine to nurture emotional intelli- relieve some of the shoulder pain, it is often difficult to reach the
one could end up reacting to situations in a kind of repression happens is when elders in the experience greater response capability and gence,” says Thakore. rear of your shoulders if you are the one wielding the massage
manner that would lead to dysfunctions in rela- family or authority figures in educational insti- choicefulness in action. Renowned yoga In a globalised world where most of us are gun. This Hyper X Shoulder attachment solves that problem. It
tionships and organisational spaces. Leaders tutions make statements such as “Boys don’t achārya T. Krishnamacharya said, “A healthy exposed to culturally diverse contexts, nurtur- looks futuristic, fits snugly on your shoulders and delivers hot,
who lack this capacity often show up as reac- cry”, “Girls don’t laugh out loud” or “To show individual is one who is able to feel all the rasās ing emotional intelligence is critical in building cold and contrast therapy on demand whenever you need it. It is
tionary to their peers and associates at the anger is to be a bad person”. as it arises in them and return to a state of trust and developing deeply nourishing human pricey but it is effective.
workplace. Both yoga and Nātya śāstra encourage one to śāntam after the emotional experience.” connections. ARC Cold Rush 2.0: Cold plunges are trending in the country
Social awareness or contextual intelligence is celebrate and feel all the rasas or emotions. In lately. You don’t need to go to a spa or sports club as long as you
the ability to tune into and understand the emo- Indian aesthetics, nava rasas or nine emotions ACCESS EMOTIONS THROUGH ARTS Hariprasad Varma is a leadership coach & get yourself an ARC Cold Rush 2.0 tub. It fits an average size
tions of other people around you and the orga- are proffered as a lens through which to look at Performing arts like music, arts and theatre can yoga therapist based in Hyderabad. He posts on X human, so all you need to do is unpack it, take it to the bath, fill it
nisational dynamics. What is described as an the world of feelings and emotions. According help us access our emotions at a deeper and as @ZenseiHari. up and take a cold plunge. Put it away once done. It’s that easy.

What to do to counter the danger of sitting for hours ISTOCKPHOTO

Backaches are the most Contrary to popular belief, a 2020 study As the sessions went on, Venkatesh tion effectively when we stand upright
led by University of South California and started experiencing cramps in her shoul- and move regularly,” she says.
common outcome of published in the journal PNAS, showed der yet powered through. Just a day of Being sedentary for long hours not only
spending hours at a desk. that hunter-gatherer tribes sat for as many wrong posture was enough to do a lot of increases the risk of insulin resistance and
hours as we do today, shares Malhotra. damage. diabetes, it could also lead to weakening of
Here’s how to prevent it What has changed is what we do when we “Multiple parts of my back were in leg, glute and other muscles that sup-
while continuing to work sit for these long hours.
“Instead of stretching, we begin our
affected and I was bedridden for four days.
In fact, I had to be rushed to the emer-
port standing, Vinay says. All of this can
cause weakness and increase the chances
mornings by reaching for our phones and gency one morning as I just couldn’t get of falls and injuries.
Deepa Natarajan Lobo laptops, and that’s where the problem out of bed,” she recollects. “Sitting for too long or lying in the same
feedback@livemint.com begins,” he notes. Muscle relaxants, physiotherapy ses- position can make your neck and shoulder
As Malhotra explains, our posture is sions and medication helped Venkatesh muscles stiff and interfere with smooth

T
he convenience of technology and a
desk job comes with its own perils.
Of these, sitting continuously for far
too many hours (mostly in wrong posi-
tions) is too important to ignore. It is a
known fact that we need to prioritise
physical activities in order to stay fit, but a
sizeable population works at a screen with
little to no time for exercise.
As per a study by Harvard Health, sit-
ting for 11 or more hours a day can
increase the risk of premature death by
12%. Mayo Clinic says sitting for more
than 8 hours a day without any physical
activity poses as high a risk of death as
obesity and smoking. However, it’s not
the number of hours we sit per day but
how active we are outside of those hours
that counts, believes Rishabh Malhotra,
founder of the Bengaluru-based fitness
start-up, Tagda Raho.
wrong when we are looking at our phone
or laptop screens. Our shoulders are bent
and the closed posture leads to reduced
breathing and lung capacity. We sit in offi-
ces with controlled temperatures that
numb our feeling of thirst, reducing our
need to drink adequate water. All these
factors end up contributing to pains and
ailments.
“Over time, if we don’t use certain mus-
cles as much as they should be used, atro-
phy (wastage of muscles) takes place. We
should focus on incorporating more
movement into the hours when we are
not sitting, much like our ancestors who
moved around looking for food or build-
ing homes did,” says Malhotra.
Having noticed posture-related issues
among his clients, Malhotra’s advice is to
engage in some light stretches in the
morning after waking up.
THE RIGHT CHAIR
Posture-related injuries could also be the
result of the chair you sit in. Shravanthi
Venkatesh learnt this the hard way. A psy-
chotherapist based in Bengaluru, Ven-
katesh was diagnosed with muscle spasm
and a pinched nerve in the shoulder all
because she was spending the day in the
wrong chair.
“My work involves sitting in one place
and listening to clients in sessions that can
last between 60 and 90 minutes. On one
day, I had six sessions back-to-back and it
was also the first time I was using a chair
that was slightly higher than the table,”
she recalls.
recover, and now she makes sure to take
time out in between sessions to get some
sun, drink water and do a few stretches
and squats. Her advice is to choose your
chair wisely depending on your profile of
work.
“Don’t get fooled by the look of a luxuri-
ous chair. Something simple may be more
effective for your posture,” she says, add-
ing, “if you experience any cramps or
pains, it’s best to attend to them immedi-
ately as they may intensify with time and
you may need a surgical intervention
later.”
STAY ACTIVE, STAND STRAIGHT
Human beings are built to move and stand
straight, says Gauravi Vinay, a clinical
nutritionist and fitness enthusiast in Ben-
galuru. “From the digestive system to car-
diovascular system, all our organs func-
mobility. Another common issue that can
crop up with long hours of sitting is vari-
cose veins, which in some cases could
even lead to further problems such as
clots,” Vinay says.
In a nutshell, take frequent breaks from
long hours of sitting and engage in some
light physical activity like simple stretches
or a quick walk.
As Malhotra says many back problems
can be solved by just rectifying posture,
and providing movement to the muscles.
“In addition to simple stretches, ensure
that you get the right strength training
and move constantly to improve your
resistance. With each of us having our
own requirements, it’s best to consult a
health expert,” he says.
For more stories on wellness and fitness,
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