FYBSC-COMPUTER SCIENCE – MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS

Unit 1- Theory of Probability

Topics Covered
1. Fundamental Principles of Counting
2. Permutation and Combination
3. Sample Space and Events
4. Classical Definition of Probability
5. Probability Models
6. Axioms of Probability
7. Theorems on Probability (Only Statements)
8. Real Life Examples

BY
PROF. SHRIRAM KARGAONKAR
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CSST 112 - Mathematical Statistics

Notes

Unit 1 Theory of Probability

: Topics covered in this notes
1) Fundamental Principles of Counting
2) Permutation and Combination
3) Sample Space and Events
4) Classical definition of Probability
5) Numerical

Learning Objectives
Apply the Fundamental Counting Principle to determine the number of outcomes
To understand deterministic experiment and Nondeterministic Experiment.
To Understand concept of Sample space and events
To apply concept of Sample space and events in daily life situation.
To understand concept of Probability.
Apply probability concept in in daily life situation.

1.1 Fundamental Principles of Counting

The study of permutations and combinations is concerned with determining the number of
different ways of arranging and selecting objects out of a given number of objects, without
actually listing them. There are some basic counting techniques which will be useful in
determining the number of different ways of arranging or selecting objects. The two basic
counting principles are given below:
i Multiplication principle
Suppose an event E can occur in ‘m’ different ways and associated with each way of occurring
of E, another event F can occur in n different ways, then the total number of occurrence of the
two events in the given order is (m × n).
Example: 1) you have 3 shirts and 4 pants. That means 3×4=12 different outfits. 2) There
are 6 flavors of ice-cream, and 3 different cones. That means 6×3=18 different single-scoop ice-
creams you could order.

i Addition principle
i
If an event E can occur in m ways and another event F can occur in n ways, and suppose that
both cannot occur together, then E or F can occur in (m + n) ways.
1) Four red and 6 green marbles are placed in a bag. How many marbles are there to choose
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from?
Answer: Since the red and green marbles cannot be chosen together or at the same time, the
number of outcomes is added together. So, there are 4 + 6 = 10 marbles to choose from.
2) To select a pen among 8 blue and 5 red pen then total ways can a pen be selected is (8+5)=
13 ways.
1.2 Permutation, and Combination
Permutation implies arrangement where order of things is important and includes word
formation, number formation, circular permutation etc.
Combination means selection where order is not important and it involves selection of team,
forming geometrical figures, distribution of things etc.
Factorial = Factorial are defined for natural numbers, not for negative numbers.

n! = n.(n-1).(n-2).........3.2.1

For example: 1) 4! = 4.3.2.1 = 24

2) 6!/ 4! = (6.5.4!)/ 4! = 6.5 = 30
3) 0! = 1

PERMUTATION COMBINATION

Implies Arrangement Implies Selection

Order of things is important Order of things is NOT important

Permutation of three things a, b and Combination of three things a,b and c

c taking two at a time are ab, ba, ac, ca,bc taking two at a time are ab, ca and cb
and cb (Order is important). (Order is not important).

nPr = n!/ (n-r)! nCr = n!/ (n-r)! r!

nPn = n! nCn = 1

nP0 = 1 nC0 = 1

PERMUTATION
I Case 1) Permutation of Distinct objects (Repetition not allowed)
Permutation of n different objects The number of permutations of n objects taken all at a time,
denoted by the symbol nPr , is given by
nPr = n!/ (n-r)!
Case ii) Permutations when the objects are not distinct
The number of permutations of n objects of which p1 are of one kind, p2 are of second kind, ...,
pk are of k th kind and the rest if any, are of different kinds is
n ! / (n1! * n2!* ….. *nk!)
Case iii) Permutation with Repetition
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The number of permutations of n objects, taken r at a time, when repetition of objects is

allowed, is n^r

i Combination:
On many occasions we are not interested in arranging but only in selecting r objects from given
n objects. A combination is a selection of some or all of a number of different objects where the
order of selection is immaterial. The number of selections of r objects from the given n objects
is denoted by nCr , and is given by

nCr = n!/r !(n-r )!

Numerical Examples
I) Permutation
1) How many 3 letters words can be formed using the letters of the word “COMPUTER”?
2) In how many ways five members of the same family can be seated for photograph in a row?
3) How many 3 letter words can be formed using alphabets A, B, C, D, & E.
4) Find the total number of permutations of the letter i. INDIAN ii. STATISTICS iii.
MATHEMATICS iv. MISSISSIPPI
5) How many 7 digit numbers can be formed using all the digits in the number 2522521?
6) How many 3 digit numbers can be formed using the digits 2,3,4,5 & 6, if repetition is
allowed?
7) In a shop there are 6 types of toy cars, each type of car is available in 3 colors viz. red,
blue and yellow. If a child has to select one care, how many different choices he has?
8) A certain job requires punching and drilling. If there are 4 punching and 5 drilling
machines, in how many ways can the job be done?
9) How many code words of 4 letters can be formed from 26 letters of the alphabets?
10) The letters of the word “article” are arranged at random. Find the probability that vowels
may occupy the even places.
11) The letters of the word ‘failure’ are arranged at random. Find the probability that the
consonants may occupy odd position.
12) Twenty books are placed at random on a shelf. Find the probability that a particular pair
of books shall be i. Always together ii. Never together

II) Combination
13) A bag contains 3 red and 4 black balls. If 3 balls are selected at random one after the
other without replacement, find the number of combinations in which following are
included: i. at least 2 red balls ii. Atmost 1 red ball iii. No red ball
14) A cricket team of 11 players has to be formed from 18 players consisting of 7 bowlers, 3
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wicket-keepers and 8 batsmen. In how many ways a team can be formed so that it contains
exactly 5 bowlers & two wicket-keepers?
15) In a basket there are 5 mangoes and 4 oranges. If any 3 fruits are to be selected from these,
find the numbr of possibilities in which:
i. Exactly 2 mangoes are selected
ii. No mangoes is selected
iii. Atleast one mango is selected.
iv. Atlease two mangoes are selected.
16) In how many ways can four cards be drawn from a well shuffled pack of 50 playing cards,
so as to contain: i. 2 clubs and 2 diamonds ii. One card of each suit iii. All cards of same
suit.

1.3 Deterministic and non-determination models.

Deterministic Experiment:
The experiment in which the outcome is unique and certain is called as deterministic
experiment.
Examples i) Throwing a stone in the sky, it falls
ii) Heating water above 100 degrees celcius, it boils
iii) Cooling water below zero degrees celcius, it becomes ice etc.

Non-Deterministic / Random Experiment

The experiment in which the outcome is neither unique nor certain, but a set of all possible
outcome is known, is called as non-deterministic or random experiment.
Examples i) Tossing a coin- {Head , Tail}
ii) Throwing an unbiased die – {1,2,3,4,5,6}
iii) Selecting a card from the pack of 52 cards and mentioning its suit –
{Heart, Diamond, Spade, Club} etc.

1.4 Sample Space:

Consider a random experiment. The set of all the possible outcomes is called the sample space
of the experiment and is usually denoted by S.
Examples i) Tossing a coin- S= {Head , Tail}
ii) Throwing an unbiased die – S= {1,2,3,4,5,6}
iii) Selecting a card from the pack of 52 cards and mentioning its suit –
S= {Heart, Diamond, Spade, Club} etc.
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Equiprobable Sample Space

The sample space in which each outcome have an equal chance of being included in the sample
is called as equiprobable sample space.

Events
Any subset of the sample space is called an event. It is always denoted by capital letters like A,
B, C, …..

Here are some examples.

Example 1) Tossing a coin. The sample space is S = {H, T}. E = {H} is an event.
Example 2) Tossing a die. The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. E = {2, 4, 6} is an event,
which can be described in words as ”the number is even”.
Example 3) Tossing a coin twice. The sample space is S = {HH, HT, TH, T T}. E = {HH, HT}
is an event, which can be described in words as ”the first toss results in a Heads.
Example 4) Tossing a die twice. The sample space is S = {(i, j) : i, j = 1, 2, . . . , 6}, which
contains 36 elements. ” The sum of the results of the two toss is equal to 10” is an event.
Example 5) Choosing a point from the interval (0, 1). The sample space is S = (0, 1). E = (1/3,
1/2) is an event.
Example 6) Measuring the lifetime of a light bulb. The sample space is S = [0, ∞). E = [90, ∞)
is an event.

Types of Events in Probability:

Some of the important probability events are:

1) Simple or Elementary Event- The event which contains only one outcome is called as
simple or elementary event.
For example, if Ω = {56 , 78 , 96 , 54 , 89} and E = {78} then E is a simple event.
2) Sure or Certain Event – The event which contains all the elements of sample space is
called as Sure or Certain Event
For example, Throwing a die and getting an even or odd number.
Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and A= getting even or odd number= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
3) Impossible Event – The event which contains no element or which corresponds to empty
set is called as an impossible event. It is denoted by ϕ.
For example, Throwing a die and getting 7.
Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and A= getting 7= { ϕ }
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4) Complement of an Event – Let A be any event defined on sample space Ω then its
complement to be denoted by A’ is defined as the set of all elements which do not contain
in A.
For example: Throwing a die then Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and
Let A= getting even no. = {2,4,6} then A’ = {1,3,5}

5) Mutually Exclusive Events- Let A and B are any two events defined on sample space Ω
then they are said to be exhaustive if and only if union of those gives an entire sample
space.
i.e Events A and B are MEE if P(A ∩ B) = ϕ

For example, Throwing a die then Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and

Let A= getting even no. = {2,4, 6} & B=Getting odd no. = {1,3,5}
Here, P(A ∩ B) = ϕ ………(Since no common element)
Hence A and B are MEE
Thus A and B are relative complements of each other.

6) Exhaustive Events- Let A and B are any two events defined on sample space Ω then
they are said to be mutually exclusive if and only if there is no common element between
them.
i.e Events A and B are Exhaustive if P(A U B) = Ω
For example, Throwing a die then Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and
Let A= getting even no. = {2,4,6} & B=Getting odd no. = {1,3,5}
Here, P(A U B) = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} = Ω ………(Since no common element)
Hence A and B are Exhaustive events.

7) Relative Complement of an Event

Let A and B are any event defined on sample space Ω
i) “Relative complement of A with respect to B” to be denoted by (A’∩B) or
(B-A) is defined as the set of all elements which do not contain A but only B. Hint :
Not A but B

ii) “Relative complement of B with respect to A” to be denoted by (A∩B’) or

(A-B) is defined as the set of all elements which do not contain B but only A.
Hint : Not B but A
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NUMERICAL EXAMPLES
17) Determine which of the following are deterministic and nondeterministic experiments.
i. Water is heated upto 0 degree celcius.
ii. A coin is tossed to decide the team which would bat first in a cricket match.
iii. A body is released from a fixed height and the time it takes to reach the ground is measured
iv. Planting set of 10 seeds and watching how many seeds germinated.
18) Two dice are tossed. Describe a suitable sample space and describe in detail the
following events. A- The sum of two faces is 7
B- Atleast one of the faces is an even number
C- One of the numbers divides the other.
19) Under what conditions are the following relations true?
i. A∩B = Ω ii. A∩B = A’ iii. AUB=ϕ iv. AUB= A∩B

20) - If A, B and C are any three events; write down the theoretical expressions for the
following events:
i. only A occurs ii.A and B occur but C does not
iii. A, B and C all the three occur iv. atleast one occurs
v. one does not occur vi. Two do not occur vii. None occurs
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CLASSICAL DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY

Definition: If a random experiment can result in n mutually exclusive and equally likely
outcomes and if m of these are favorable to the occurrence of an event A, then the probability
𝒎
of occurrence of A, denoted by P(A), is defined as ,
𝒏
𝑭𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒎
i.e. P(A) = = ; 0≤m≤ n
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒏

Remarks:
1. As 0 ≤ m ≤ n, we have
𝟎 𝒎 𝒏
≤ ≤
𝒏 𝒏 𝒏

i.e. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
Thus probability of any event lies between lies between 0 and 1.
2. If m out of n outcomes are in favor of an event A then (n-m) outcomes are against or not
in favor of event A. Hence probability of non-occurrence o A i.e. probability of A’ is
defined as,
𝒏−𝒎 𝒎
P(A’) = =𝟏− = 1- P(A) Therfore, P(A’)+ P(A) = 1
𝒏 𝒏

Limitations of Classical Definition of Probability:

The classical definition of probability cannot be applied in following cases:
1) If the outcomes are not equally likely.
2) If the total number of cases are not finite.
3) If the total number of cases are finite but unknown.

Solved Numerical Examples:

1) Three unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously, then find the probability of getting i. all
heads ii. Atleast two heads iii. Atmost 1 head iv. No heads
Ans: Tossing three coins simultaneously
Ω = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT} , n = 𝟐𝟑 = 8
𝒎 𝟏
i. Let A= all heads = { HHH} , m = 1, P(A) = =𝟖
𝒏
𝒎 𝟒
ii. Let B= atleast two heads = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}, m = 4, P(A) = = = 0.5
𝒏 𝟖
𝒎 𝟒
iii. Let C= atmost one head= { TTH, THT, HTT, TTT}, m = 4, P(A) = = = 0.5
𝒏 𝟖
𝒎 𝟏
iv. Let D= No heads= All tails = { TTT}, m = 1, P(A) = =
𝒏 𝟖
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2) A card is selected at random from a well shuffled pack of 52 playing cards. Find the
probability of getting i. a spade card ii. A face card iii. A black card.
Ans:- Here, n= total cases = 52
i. Let A= Getting a spade card, m = 13, Total Cases= n = 52
𝑭𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒎 𝟏𝟑 𝟏
P(A) = = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒏 𝟓𝟐 𝟒

ii. Let B= Getting a face card, m = 12, Total Cases= n = 52

𝑭𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒎 𝟏𝟐 𝟑
P(A) = = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒏 𝟓𝟐 𝟏𝟑

iii. Let C= Getting a black card, m = 26, Total Cases= n = 52

𝑭𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒎 𝟐𝟔 𝟏
P(A) = = = = = 0.5
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒏 𝟓𝟐 𝟐

3) Five men in a company of 20 are graduates. If three men are selected at random among
them, what is the probability that,
i. They are all graduates?
ii. There is no graduate?
iii. Atleast one of them is graduate?
Answer: Out of 20, 5 are graduates means, 15 are non-graduates.
Out of 20, three men can be selected in 20C3 ways= 1140.i.e. n=1140
i. Let E- all are graduates
m = no. of ways in which 3 graduates can be selected from 5 = 5C3 = 10
𝑭𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒎 𝟏𝟎 𝟏
Therefore, P(E) = = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒏 𝟏𝟏𝟒𝟎 𝟏𝟏𝟒

ii. Let F= there is no graduate

m = no. of ways in which 3 non-graduates can be selected from 15 = 15C3 = 455
𝑭𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒎 𝟒𝟓𝟓 𝟏𝟗𝟏
Therefore, P(F) = = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒏 𝟏𝟏𝟒𝟎 𝟐𝟐𝟖

iii. Let G- at least one of them is graduate.

Options: a) 1 Graduate & 2 Non-graduates in 5C1 * 15C2 ways
b) 2 Graduate & 1 Non-graduates in 5C2 * 15C1 ways
c) 1 Graduate & 2 Non-graduates in 5C3 * 15C0 ways
Using additition principle, we have,
m= a + b+ c = (5C1 * 15C2) + (5C2 * 15C1) + (5C3 * 15C0)
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= 525 +150 + 10
= 685
𝑭𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒎 𝟔𝟖𝟓 𝟏𝟑𝟕
Therefore, P(G) = = = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 𝒏 𝟏𝟏𝟒𝟎 𝟐𝟐𝟖

Example for Practice:-

21) A uniform die is thrown at random. Find the probability that the number on it is i. 5
ii. Greater than 5 iii. Even number
22) In a single throw with two uniform die find the probability of throwing
i. Five ii. Eight
23) Four cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that
–
i. they are a king, queen, jack and ace card ii. Two kings are and two are aces
iii. all are diamonds iv. Two are red and two are black
v. there is one card of each suit vi. Two clubs and two diamonds
24) What is the probability that a non-leap year should have fifty three Sundays?
25) An urn contains 8 white and 3 white balls. If two balls are drawn at random, find the
Probability that i. both are white ii. Both are white iii. one of each color.
26) A box contains 10 articles of which two are defective. A random sample of 3 is drawn.
Find the probability that the sample contain;
i. atleast one defective ii. Atmost one defective
27) One card is selected at random from 50 cards numbered 1 to 50. Find the probability that
the number on the card is: i. divisible by 5 ii. Ends in the digit 2.
28) Of 10 girls in a class, 3 have knowledge of R-software. If two of the girls are chosen at
random. What is the probability that,
i. Both have knowledge of R-software ii. Neither has knowledge of R-software
iii. Atleast one has knowledge of R-software .
29) There are 30 statisticians and 24 mathematicians attending a certain conference. Three of
these 54 people are randomly chosen to take part in a panel discussion. What is the probability
that:
i. Atleast one mathematician is chosen?
ii. None of the mathematician is chosen?

30) A card is drawn at random from a pack of playing cards. What is the probability that
a) a club card selected b) a face card selected c) a king card selected.
31) Three cards are to be chosen at random in succession from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find
the probability that all are diamonds if the cards are drawn –
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i) with replacement ii) without replacement

32) An unbiased coin is tossed three times, what is the probability of getting –
i) Exactly 2 heads ii) at least 2 heads iii) At most 1 head iv) no head
33) In a group of 15 professionals, 5 are from technical fields. If 3 professionals are selected at
random, what is the probability-
i) None from technical field ii) At least 1 are from technical field.
34) In a grp of 10 men, 5 are graduates. If 3 men are selected at random from the group, find
the probability that i) all graduates selected ii) at least one graduate selected.

PROBABILITY MODELS:
Let Ω = {x1, x2,…….xn} be a finite sample space for a random experiment. A probability
model is constructed by assigning to each sample point x1 of Ω, a real number P{x1}, such
that-
i. P{xi} ≥ 0, i=1,2,3,……n
ii. ∑𝒏𝒊=𝟏 𝐏{𝐱𝐢} = 𝟏
Where P{xi} is called the probability of the elementary event {xi}.

Numerical Examples
35) Let Ω = {x1, x2, x3, x4} be a sample space. Find which of the following are the probability
model?
i) P(x1)=0.12, P(x2)=0.63, P(x3)=0.45, P(x4)= - 0.20
ii) P(x1)=0.075, P(x2)=0.375, P(x3)=0.225, P(x4)=-0.383
iii) P(x1)=1/2, P(x2)= 1/4, P(x3)=1/4, P(x4)= 0

36) A die is loaded so that probability of an even number is twice the probability of an odd
number. Even numbers are equally likely as well as odd numbers. Find probability that. i) An
even number appears uppermost
ii) A perfect square appears upper most.

37) An integer between 1 and 100 (both inclusive) is selected at random. Find the probability of
selecting a perfect square if
i. All integers are equally likely.
ii. An integer between 1 and 50 is twice as likely to occure than an integer between 51
to 100.
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38) Three girls and four boys take parts in an antakshari competition. All boys and all girls have
equal opportunities of winning, but each girl is twice as likely to win as any boy. Find the
probability that a boy wins in the competition.

AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY
Let A be any event defined on sample space Ω then
Axiom 1: P(A) ≥ 0 i.e Probability of any event is always positive
Axiom 2: P(Ω) =1 i.e. Probability of sample space is always 1
Axiom 3: P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B), if A and B are mutually exclusive events.

THEOREMS ON PROBABILITY (Only Statements)

Theorem 1: For any event A defined on Ω, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
Theorem 2: If A’ be the complement of an event A, then P(A’) = 1 – PA)
Theorem 3: The probability of an impossible event is always zero. i.e. P(ϕ) = 0
Theorem 4: If A and B are two events on Ω, such that A 𝒊𝒔 subset of B, then P(A) ≤ P(B).
Theorem 5: If A and B are two events defined on Ω, then P(A UB) =P(A)+P(B) – P(A∩B)

Important Formulae

i. P(A ∩B’) = P(A) – P(A∩B) ii. P(A’ ∩B) = P(B) – P(A∩B)

iii. P(A’) = 1 – PA) iv. P(A UB) =P(A)+P(B) – P(A∩B)

39) If P(A)=0.6, P(B) = 0.5, P(A∩B) = 0.3. Compute P(A’), P(AUB), P(A’∩B), P(A’∩B’)
and P(A’UB’)
Example – The probability that a contractor get a plumbing contract is 0.4 and the probability
that he will will not get an electric contract is 0.7. If the probability of getting atleast one
contract is 0.6, what is the probability that he will get –
- I) Both the contracts ii) Exactly one contract
40) A shopping mall accepts either master card or visa card. The probability that customer will
carry master card is 0.24, the probability that he will carry visa card and will carry both a
master and visa card with probability 0.11. What is the probability that customer will carry i)
Either or both the cards
ii)Only one of the two cards?
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iii) Neither of the cards.

41) The probability of occurrence of an event A is 0.7, the probability of non-occurrence of an
event B is 0.5 and that of at least one of A and B not occurring is 0.6. Find the probability that
at least one of A and B occurs.

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