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2017 Mokhtari
2017 Mokhtari
Abstract: Floods, as one of the most catastrophic events among the wide variety of natural hazards, impose considerable damage to humans,
infrastructure, and industrial and agricultural sites. To identify flooding-prone areas and having knowledge on occurrence probability or
return period of flood events can be promising for planning and alleviation of damage caused by this natural phenomenon. This paper seeks
to assess flood risk in the Ghamsar watershed, so cross sections were plotted using a digital elevation model (DEM) and stream geometric data
in the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Geospatial Processing Data for River Analysis System (HEC-GeoRAS). The output was transferred
to the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and flooded area with different return periods with data created by
an unstable simulation in the Ghamsar River. These results together with field data collected from region were entered into the Hydrologic
Engineering Center’s Flood Impact Analysis (HEC-FIA) software and flood damage was estimated. Results showed that 3.23 ha of cultivated
lands will be subject to damage ($378,358.99). As for infrastructure, a number of 36 buildings units surrounding the river will be subject
to floods and at the same time the flood causes some causalities. The results of this research can be used in development plans and the
construction sector in order to alleviate damage caused by floods in urban and rural areas and floodplains and for river bank conservation.
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000248. © 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Author keywords: Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Geospatial Processing Data for River Analysis System (HEC-GeoRAS); Hydrologic
Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS); Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Flood Impact Analysis (HEC-FIA); Structural
damage; Agricultural damage; Ghamsar watershed.
Background
Among the wide range of natural hazards, floods perhaps serve as
the most destructive, incurring a lot of damage to humans, plants,
industrial facilities, and agricultural lands. To identify flooding-
prone areas and having knowledge on occurrence probability or
return period of flood events can be promising for planning and
alleviation of damage caused by this natural phenomenon (Afshar
1985). Annually, floods lead to 26,000 casualties and affect 75 mil-
lion people in an adverse manner. Flood damage has grown increas-
ingly during recent decades, which increased frequency and
severity of floods, in turn leading to growing concerns of the
international community to reduce the deaths and financial losses
from floods (Smith 2001; Sanders 2007).
Detection of areas characterized by a high risk and potential ex-
posure to flash floods can assist policymakers in strategic planning
of flood-damage alleviation through water control structures, deci- Fig. 1. Location of study area at Namak Lake Basin of Iran
sion making for flood insurance, and facilitating preparation
against flooding emergency events (Smith 2001).
where Qmax = instantaneous peak discharge (m3 =s); Q = daily peak
Materials and Methods flow (m3 =s); A = basin area (km2 ); Q1 = daily average flow before
peak (m3 =s); Q2 = daily peak flow; and Q3 = daily average flow
Study Area after peak (m3 =s).
Crop type — — — — of the river to determine other factors such as depth and speed of
flow include flow discharge, Manning roughness coefficient,
geometry, and cross sections of the river. These specifications may
likelihood has an error in the estimation of small samples (Overton differ between natural and existing conditions, and in this case it is
2005). In the method of probability-weighted moments, parameter necessary to examine both natural and available conditions. Flood
estimation with the maximum likelihood method is comparable in discharge in natural and existing conditions is the same in the study
some cases and is more accurate (Hosking 1990). area due to lack of effective structures on the flow rate.
The linear-moment method is more convenient and much easier
than the probability-weighted moments, because they can be directly Manning Roughness Coefficient
interpreted as measures of scale and shape of probability distributions
and they are similar and comparable to the conventional moments, A river may have a wide range of roughness coefficients. Manning
but this method is not an appropriate method for the distribution of roughness coefficient in the river was based on field observations,
many parameters, samples with low numbers, or outliers in the calculations, and experimental tables provided by Cowan (1956)
sample. This method has a lower quality than other methods such and according to the conditions of the river at different sections,
as moments of weightlessness (Rao and Hamed 1999). the effect of other factors such as the degree of roughness, ob-
The most important part in flood frequency analysis is to esti- stacles, vegetation, and pathway form was modified as follows
mate flood discharge. To analyze flood frequency and estimate the (Alamilla 2001; Coon 1995):
distribution quintiles, the method of moments, maximum likeli- n ¼ ðn0 þ n1 þ n2 þ n3 þ n4 Þn5 ð4Þ
hood, and weighted moments are more likely to be used. Frequency
analysis was performed in this study using the probability-weighted where n = combined Manning roughness coefficient; n0 = Manning
moments method (Greenwood et al. 1979). roughness coefficient for bed gravels; n1 = Manning coefficient re-
In this study, according to the goodness-of-fit test results lated to river bed roughness; n2 = Manning coefficient related to
(chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov) and the standard error, the changes in river section; n3 = Manning coefficient related to bar-
probability-weighted moments method is better than other methods. riers in river path; and n4 and n5 = Manning roughness coefficient
Because the log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) is a kind of extreme value on vegetation and river curvature, respectively.
distribution, goodness-of-fit test results (using the Kolmogorov-
Smirnov and chi-square tests) showed that this distribution is suit-
able for analyzing the prevalence rates peak. Channel Section Geometry under Existing and Natural
Conditions
Channel geometry serves as the first and most basic information
Hydraulic Characterization of the Study Area
needed to simulate the river hydraulics. In fact, the cross section
To simulate the hydraulic behavior of the river for studying the bor- of the river determines hydraulic parameters such as speed, depth,
ders of the hydraulic river bed, hydraulic calculations of steady and surface of flooding when a flow enters the river. Current
Table 3. HEC-FIA Model Data Used to Calculate Agricultural Damage for Plums, Walnuts, and Apples
Crop Yield per hectare Unit Unit price ($) Harvest cost ($) Crop loss function Seasonal data
Plum 37.1 ton 1,333,333.0 4,856,333.0 Fruits and nuts Enter
Walnut 12.4 ton 1.2 × 107 3,399,433.5 Walnuts Enter
Apple 27.2 ton 1,500,000.0 24,281,666 Fruits and nuts Enter
Table 4. Flood Discharge with Different Return Periods in Ghamsar Basin (m3 =s)
1,000 years 500 years 200 years 100 years 50 years 10 years 5 years 2 years Best fit distribution Peak flow estimation method
98.1 59.0 29.7 17.4 10.0 2.53 1.29 0.45 LP3 Fuller
201 105 44.5 23.0 11.7 2.26 1.04 0.32 LP3 Senegal
231 117 47.8 24.0 11.9 2.18 0.99 0.3 LP3 Fill-Steiner
cross section geometry was prepared using the map provided by the information on buildings and agricultural land use as well other
Regional Water Organization in Isfahan Province with a scale information, including a raster file of inundation, impact area, com-
of 1:2,000. For this purpose, the maps were imported into the putation points, and crop loss function. Table 1 gives the questions
Arc-GIS 9.3 environment and the areas such as bridges and cross regarding building information to calculate structural damages in
sections were extracted. Finally, to obtain other flow characteris- HEC-FIA software, respectively.
tics, the map was imported into HEC-RAS using the HEC-GeoRAS Table 2 gives the questions related to agricultural land use,
extension. After preparing the geometry of the river in the existing and the data for the three crops around the river can be found
circumstances, it is necessary to identify the affected areas by in Table 3.
human manipulation to simulate the initial geometry or the natural
section of the river. A total of seven bridges are constructed along
the area whose hydraulic conditions were simulated by the
HEC-RAS model.
Fig. 5. Flooded area, by flood with 1,000-year return period in Bonrood River
weighted moments method was more likely to produce logical To obtain the river geometry to be entered to the hydraulic
results considering Kolmogorov-Smirnov, chi-square, and visual model for simulation, it is necessary to create some vector files in
techniques in the Ghamsar basin. Among the three experimental order to determine the center line of the water, river bank, cross
methods to estimate the maximum instantaneous discharge, the sections, and flow pathway in rivers (Fig. 2).
Fig. 7. General view of the impact area, computation points, and stream alignment in HEC-FIA; dark polygons represent agricultural lands
Having completed the input data of the HEC-RAS file, the buildings and 13 commercial buildings, for a total of 36 buildings
hydraulic model of intervals was performed for hypercritical flow around the river are subjected to inundation. Estimated human
regime and water surface profile computations. Water level simu- damages are also described in Fig. 8, where:
lation profiles usually follow the river bed profile and therefore can • “PAR” is the population at risk.
be homogenous with normal height or close to it in some river • “Received Warning” is the number of people who receive warn-
intervals (Fig. 3). Parameters such as the upper width of flood, hy- ing messages [the default warning system of the software is a
draulic depth, water surface area, and flow volume and power (in siren warning system, which was used in this study; other warn-
terms of N=m · s) can also be calculated for different intervals. ing systems available in the software include radio, and auto-
The results of the HEC-RAS hydraulic model were stored in a matic telephone and emergency broadcast systems (EBS), as
proper GIS format (Fig. 4). This information is then processed well as combinations of these systems].
to raster and vector formats in HEC-GeoRAS through postprocess- • “Mobilized” is the number of people who are mobilized after
ing of data into the flooded areas around the river with different receiving the warning message. Of these, those who evacuated
return periods (2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1,000 years). from the location of danger zone are called the “Total Cleared.”
Because the one of observed floods has been 1,000-year return The numbers of people who start to exit at the beginning of
periods, therefore flood inundation of its was simulated in Ghamsar inundation are shown as the “Started Inundated.” “Caught” de-
watershed (Fig. 5). fines the people who start exiting when the flood begins, but
One of the outputs of simulation of unsteady flow is a scale- they are not able to leave danger zone before full inundation.
discharge hydrograph for river intervals. After simulation, the out- Some of them are “survived” and some lose their lives (“life
put of the model was obtained as a HEC-DSS file for all sections loss”). People who receive warning messages but do not exit
(Table 6). Finally, the longitudinal profile of the river was prepared from danger zone are determined as “Not Mobilized.”
as a result of unsteady flow simulations in the river (Fig. 6). • “Not Mobilized” is the number of people who do not receive a
After entering the data and information required for simulation warning message and have survived or lose their lives.
into the HEC-FIA software, flood damage was calculated. Fig. 7
shows an overview of land use, computation points, central align-
ment of flow, and the affected area. Table 7. Agricultural Damage around Bonrood Ghamsar River Caused by
This model shows results in a tabular manner for each impact 2007 Flood Event
area (Table 7). This table contains the flood damage to crops in the Content Amount of damage (quantity and unit)
region (plum, apple, and walnut) and the flooded area. According
Inundation area 3.23 ha
to the results, 3.23 ha of land in the Ghamsar watershed are affected
Damage $378,358.99
by flood and the damage is estimated to be approximately
$378,358.99 (based on the 2007 flood). The estimated damage
is based on the values that were collected through field interviews
with the local community. This information was also cross-checked Table 8. Number of Inundated Buildings around Bonrood Ghamsar River
by the Department of Agriculture in Kashan County to ensure its
Type of flooded building Number of inundated buildings
reliability.
Based on the findings, Table 8 shows the number of flooded Commercial 13
buildings in different classes. Given the considered flood for sim- Residental 23
Total number of buildings inundated 36
ulation (2007 flood event) and current land use types, 23 residential
• The rest of this figure represents the initial state for simulation the death of people and livestock, resulting in destruction of the
condition that shows how many people who received the mes- social structure of many societies as well as financial and life
sage evacuated the area and how many have lost their lives. losses. To identify flooding-prone areas and having knowledge
Based on the findings, in the Ghamsar watershed, 174 and 135 of occurrence probability or return period of flood events can be
people younger than 65 years old are at risk of flooding during the promising for planning and alleviation of damage caused by this
day and night, respectively, and 25 and 11 people older than natural phenomenon. Results show that land use changes and in-
65 years are at risk of flooding during the day and night, respec- creasing unplanned construction along the river and also limitation
tively. Among people at risk of flooding and under 65 years old, of the river can increase the peak discharge of river floods as well as
164 people (94%) during the day and 126 people (approximately depth and surface of flooded area, which confirms the results of
93%) during the night do not receive a warning message. Among Leopold (1968), Novotny and Olem (1994), and Alamilla (2001).
the people at high risk and older than 65 years, 24 people (96%) The results of simulation of casualties indicate that buildings are
during the day and 10 people (91%) during the night do not receive scattered in Ghamsar, Iran, and the warning systems adopted in this
a warning message. study are not sufficient because more than 90% of people do not
The accuracy of the results are checked by comparing the re- receive the warning. Therefore, in such areas with scattered build-
sponses of public information as well as regional organizations like ings, it would be preferred to define other alarm systems such as an
the municipality, housing authority, and agricultural organization. automatic telephone system to alleviate human damage caused by
floods.
In most studies on flood damage estimation, damage mainly has
Conclusion been studied separately for different sectors (e.g., agriculture) and
it has not been possible to assess agricultural, construction, and
Flood events cause substantial damage to farms, agricultural lands, human damage at the same time; however, HEC-FIA can simulta-
roads, dams, bridges, and roads each year and in some cases cause neously estimate damage in different sectors. For example,
conservation, and each of these functions is of a specific economic economic loss analysis.” Nat. Hazard., 47(1), 65–73.
Jalalirad, R. (2002). “Flooding zones in the urban basin of Tehran using
value. Attempts to economically valuate these functions and con-
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sider these values in damage estimation studies will contribute to Khalilizadeh, M., Mosaedi, A., and Najafinejad, A. (2005). “Flood risk
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The limitations of this study are a lack of internal resources and Sci. Nat. Resour., 12(4), 138–146 (in Farsi).
the lack of similar studies in the study area, lack of sufficient in- Leopold, L. B. (1968). Hydrology for urban land planning: A guide book
formation and statistics relating to the floods that occurred, there on the hydrologic effects of urban land use, U.S. Geological Survey,
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detailed maps of land use and triangulated irregular network (TIN). Novotny, V., and Olem, H. (1994). Water quality: Prevention identification
and management of diffuse pollution, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York.
Omidvar, B., and Shamsodini, A. (2006). “Assessing the direct and indirect
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