Ethiopian Inland Seaports

Cost vs Benefit Analysis

Goh Yenessou Asrat Friday, December 15, 2023

 Abstract
What is the value of a port? We as Ethiopians gravely understand the consequence of being landlocked.
This feasibility study examines a way to create a new port unlike the world has ever seen. We
furthermore have shown the cost and benefit to be gained are, as well as the construction
methodologies.

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Contents
Introduction.................................................................................................................................................4
Background Study....................................................................................................................................4
Problem Statement.................................................................................................................................5
Objective.................................................................................................................................................5
Excavation...................................................................................................................................................5
Excavation type.......................................................................................................................................6
Full excavation.....................................................................................................................................6
Canal Excavation..................................................................................................................................6
Excavation methods................................................................................................................................6
Option 1:..............................................................................................................................................6
Option 2:..............................................................................................................................................7
Option 3:..............................................................................................................................................7
Option 4...............................................................................................................................................8
Construction Methodology..........................................................................................................................8
Crossing solutions....................................................................................................................................8
Tunnel..................................................................................................................................................8
Bridge..................................................................................................................................................8
Ferries..................................................................................................................................................8
Advantages..................................................................................................................................................8
Fish farming.............................................................................................................................................8
Foreign currency saving...........................................................................................................................9
Foreign currency generating....................................................................................................................9
Tourism................................................................................................................................................9
Export..................................................................................................................................................9
Export of goods produced.................................................................................................................10
Ship building yard..................................................................................................................................10
Better navy............................................................................................................................................10
Power production..................................................................................................................................10
Geothermal........................................................................................................................................10

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 Moving water....................................................................................................................................10
Cooperation with Eritrea.......................................................................................................................11
Ethiopian and Eritrean economy boosted.............................................................................................11
Risks to consider........................................................................................................................................11
Volcanic Activity....................................................................................................................................11
Risk of Eruption.................................................................................................................................11
Risk for ships passing through...........................................................................................................12
Water Seepage......................................................................................................................................12
Canal control.........................................................................................................................................12
Flap Gate...........................................................................................................................................13
MAESLANTKERING.............................................................................................................................13
Conclusion and Recommendation.............................................................................................................14
References.................................................................................................................................................15

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Introduction
Background Study
Canals have been constructed for different purposes. One of the most famous of this canals is the Suez
Canal. This Canal was opened for use in 1869. It was originally 164km long, 8m deep, 22m wide at the
bottom and 91m wide at the top. Moreover, every 8-10km passing bays were constructed to allow ships
to pass each other. The construction required the excavation of 74 million m 3 of soil. In 2015, Egypt
finished an 8.5billion USD improvement project that has made the canal more acceptable to modern
ships. Since cars have to be transported across the canal, a 1.6km long tunnel was constructed in 1980.
Furthermore, the canal has significantly boosted the economy of the area around it with a sprawling
industrial hub being constructed. [e]

Image A (Tunnel under Suez Canal)[k]

The other famous canal the world knows of is the Panama Canal, which is feasible but will strangle the
traffic flow considerably for the Ethio-Eritrea Canal planed. Especially since the level of the surface is
low, excavation to the required level will be quite feasible and acceptable. It is estimated ships take 8 to

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10 hours to travel through the canal, [g] if the canal was flat and un-staged like the Suez Canal it would
have taken roughly 2 hours to traverse. This is because the Panama Canal is 82kms long and the average
speed of a container ship is 37-46km/hr. [m]

Therefore building a canal with locks is possible but is not recommended as it increase travel time.
Moreover, locks were needed in the panama, as the excavation was almost impossible to the tropical
nature of the area. In the 1880s, the canal could not be completed because of severe malaria and yellow
fever outbreaks killing thousands of personnel. Finally yet importantly modern machinery is more than
capable of getting the job done which is nearly impossible back then.[l]

Image B (Panama Canal) [c]

Problem Statement
Ethiopia has become landlocked after the cessation of Eritrea. Due to the lack of a port, the economic
and military growth of Ethiopia has greatly been hampered. Building a Canal can give Ethiopia multiple
seaports.

Objective
 Canal location and benefits
 Excavation size and methodology
 Time required to complete excavation
 Benefits of having a port
 Solution for Canal crossing

Excavation
Based on the basic survey conducted using google maps and online elevation showing maps. The
distance from Red sea to the acceptable part of the depression is 53km. considering new evergreen

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ships to have a length of 400m, beam (width) of 58.8m, and a draft of 16m [n]; they seem to be the ideal
ships to consider in determination of depth and width of the canal. However, we should consider some
large oil tankers and not just large container ships to determine the dimensions required. The largest oil
tanker in service currently is the TI Asia with a length of 380m, a beam of 68m and a draft of 24.52m. [o]
Finally yet importantly is the aircraft carrier incase our navy gets one in the future. The largest aircraft
carrier is the USS Gerald R Ford, which has a length of 337m, a beam of 78m and a draft of 12m. [p]

Taking all of this into account a minimum draft of 30m [i] is encouraged to allow for any size of ship to
pass through. As Ethiopia becomes an economic hub and outlet for Afro-China, Afro-India and in general
Afro- Asian outlet we shall have ships that are too large for the Suez Canal since they have no need to
cross it but go from Africa to Asia.

Furthermore, a width of 1km and additional 60m on either side to insure the soil slope for stability. The
reason for such a large width is for two reasons:

1. Easily a two way transportation service

2. In case a ship has an accident and turns a complete 90 0 the canal will still not be blocked unlike
the Suez Canal, as which was blocked between March 23-29, 2021.

Using a coordinate analysis, we have the following values[q], [r]

 Coordinate A 14.53082, 40.39683 -30m elevation

 Coordinate B 14.66231, 40.54504 0m elevation
 Coordinate C 14.73607, 40.63622 30m elevation
 Coordinate D 14.86907, 40.72378 0m elevation

Distance between Coordinate A and Coordinate B is 22km, while between Coordinate B and C is 13km
and between Coordinate C and Coordinate D is 18km. Therefore considering a 1.06km width (mid width
between top and bottom), we discover that the total soil to be removed is 1.3356 Billion m 3. The
methods used for excavation are listed below.

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[z]

Excavation type
Full excavation
Requires the excavation of the entire section currently expected to be about 1.3356Billion m 3as
calculated above.

Canal Excavation
This will involve the excavation of canals or upside down triangles at regular interval. The idea here is
that once the water breaks the first soil mass everything else shall act as a dam designed to fail, and the
water will wash it away. Since some of the soil mass might not be washed away, the excavation depth
might be lowered to 35m, which will mean a reduction of 47% excavation, which will be 0.7613 billion
m3.

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Excavation methods
Option 1:
By using local contractors and already available material.

This implies hiring grade 1, 2 and perhaps even 3 contractors and giving them a portion to excavate as
per their capabilities.

If all 320 grade one contractors supply the full requirement to be, a grade one contractor then we will
have the following:

 1280 Dozers
 640 Loaders
 320 Graders
 640 Excavators
 2,560 Dump Trucks

By considering other grade contractors, individuals and other companies we can assume a full
mobilization potential of 3,500 Dump Trucks. The reason we have decided to focus on the dump trucks
is that the excavation machine present can outpace the dump trucks.

Continuing with the basic arithmetic to excavate 1.3356 billion m 3 of soil with the presented 3,000
Trucks with a payload of 16m 3 it will take 27,825 trips each. We chose to ignore the 500 as those will be
used during repair, no machine can work without repair and rest. Provided each truck can make four
trips per hour and a regular 8-hour workday seven days a week, it will take 29 months (2 year and
5months) to accomplish the task. If the canal excavation method is used, then a potential decrease of
47% will mean it will take 15.4months (1 year and 4 months).

Option 2:
By using local contractors and foreign contractors with local agents to use some specialized equipment
for the excavation. This means using large mining excavators, dozers, dump trucks, loaders and the like.
These machineries coming to Ethiopia will be beneficial if we have other mega projects in mind.

This will insure mining equipment to be introduced to Ethiopia and speed up digging process as large
excavators and dump trucks can each carry 48m3 and 496T respectively. To put things into perspective a
Sino Truck has a pay load capacity of 16m3, meaning the excavator in one sweep can carry as many as 3
Sino Trucks, and the dump truck in question will carry over 200m3 of soil. However, obviously not all are
that large. For calculation purpose let assume 50% of Grade 1 Contractors are used. To reach the same
progress speed we will need 150 of the world’s largest dump trucks. (30 are assumed to be at rest or
being repaired).

Option 3:
By using fully imported material for the bulk of the excavation. Although some local contractors might
help, the major part of the excavation will take place using huge chain excavators with long belts to
dump the material away from the site. These huge machines are expensive but very powerful compared

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to all other production methods. The Bagger293 can alone move 240,000 m 3/day. Which is alone quite
slow making it take 8.7 years to complete the project using the canal method. However, this machine
with other similar machine or local contractors can really make a difference. Especially since, they can be
used in the mining industry.

Option 4
BY using TNT and other explosives to soften the layer and ease construction especially in union with the
canal excavation. However, we could not find any tangible amount of TNT required or locations and will
need a specialist for it.

Construction Methodology
Crossing solutions
As we are effectively cutting Eritrea into two parts we need to provide crossing methods. In addition, the
Suez Canal has shown than tunnels are a real possibility.

Tunnel
We shall have a deep tunnel under the canal to allow cars and people to cross it. Tunnels will cost more
and require more safety precautions but in case of any terrorist attack of sabotage the tunnel will cause
little to no damage to the canal above and passage cannot be blocked. If the decision to build a tunnel is
given it can be dug with the excavation and treated properly instead of using expensive boring
techniques.

Bridge
Is an easy and convenient solution but the risk of a terrorist attack blocking the canal is high. If the
bridge falls on the canal ships will be trapped until we have finished clearing the canal. For goods
transport this might be minor delay but in case of war, our navy is crippled by a single cruise missile
strike, as time will be of the essence.

Ferries
Ferries will still probably be used even if either of the previous methods is implemented. Ferries alone
however are temporary solutions in my view. They do not provide with fast travel solution as with time
the area around the canal will develop and require easier means of transportation.

Advantages
Fish farming
Fish farming is a good business across the world. Considering Kenyan requirement the smallest capital
required to start fish farming after owning a plot of land is less than 150USD. The government need not
go into the fish farming business but open it up for private development. Private farms will be willing to
buy land and start business locally or internationally. [b]

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After evaluating a Brazilian study showing Nile Tilapia production, we have discovered that 200kg/m 3 or
in other terms 500-600 fish/m3 can be supported in a cage fishing system. [d] Although we are no expert
in the field, we suggest this system as it will reduce cleaning cost and salinity accumulation. Evidently,
the entire sea, or lake cannot be caged. However, a certain part of the 10,000km 2 area can be left for
fish farming. Considering we use 10km 2 of area with an average depth of 2m, we end up with
3,000,000,000,000 (Three trillion) kg of fish in that area. This is the total fish in the area and not the fish
yield, which was estimated using the same study to be at 2 trillion kg of fish. The fish reach their peak
level every 150 days. The income adjusted for our tank size will be an astounding 660Billion USD per
year.

Nevertheless, to reach that stage the investments required will be substantial and have to be checked
for Ethiopia and the fish found in the salt-water region. Considering that even if it takes a few decades to
reach such levels a single percentage of that profit will be vital for the Ethiopian economy at 6.6Billion
USD.

Foreign currency saving

By having our own port we will not be subjected to pay other nations with USD or other foreign
reserves. Ethiopia is estimated to pay between 1.5-2Billion USD per year to Djibouti alone [a]. Currently
Ethiopian Foreign currency deficit was 11.6billion USD in 2019. Therefore, we have to try to save USD in
every available market we have. [h]

Foreign currency generating

There might be several foreign currency generating means including power generations, these three will
have a more direct effect in my view.

Tourism
As the Covid 19 pandemic has nearly ended, and our countries internal stability increase we shall have a
higher tourism flow, which generally involves foreign currency even if all is not in USD. Aside from the
resorts and islands for tourists to enjoy, an artificial sea has always fascinated people. People like to go
to the world’s newest, biggest, oldest, etc…, and that is where the tourism market can be exploited. As
usual once the government allows the construction of resorts private investors will take over and be
willing to pay for the land that they are using. [f]

Ethiopia is estimated to produce about 450million USD due to tourism, if by God’s grace we are able to
convert this into a good resort and view for the volcanoes we might be able to add another 450million
USD to reach Kenyan levels.

Export
South Sudan produces oil but lacks a port to send it through. Ethiopia can alleviate this problem for a
small fee and letting them have a pipeline line through us. Considering our strategic location, we can
export most of Central African nations good through our ports as well as importing, as it will be easier
than going all the way across Africa. By considering this below, we have attached a table indicating the
foreign currency produced by allowing a nation to use our port:

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  South Sudan exports 1.6Billion USD worth crude oil and other goods mostly to China [bb]
 Democratic Republic of Congo exports 8.87Billion USD worth of goods over 50% to China. [cc]
 Central African Republic exported over 1.6Billion and imported over 9 Billion.

The point is by charging a certain fee and letting these nations use our port we can easily make as much
money as Djibouti did by trading with us. Furthermore, these African nations will consider us an ally and
remain friendly to us.

Export of goods produced

Red Sea has high quality edible salt as well as salt required for coral reefs by construction drying areas
the water will evaporate leaving the precious salt behind. This can be used in the export process to
provide a small as compared to the other three but still thriving market.

The other goods produced are our exports which can be sent out with a less fee and making us more
competitive in the global market. Since Europe purchase a good deal of their gas and crude oil from
Middle East, the Ethiopian location will decrease travel time and make us a good competition in the
market.

Ship building yard

This might not happen soon but gradually. Ethiopia can open a ship manufacturing port in collaboration
with other African or Global nations. Shipping building will provide a new industry to allow us to export
manufacturing goods. Perhaps ship maintenance stations could be started in the initial phase and allow
any legal ship to use those docks provided for a certain fee. Since 12% of the world’s trade passes
through the red sea, we can be sure to have a large market share. [j]

Better navy
Any Navy needs a home. What better port than a sheltered house with a narrow passage that prevents
any major navy from coming through to attack us. Considering the narrow passage of the area besides
easy monitoring to prevent future attacks, our navy can be located inside the bay area under concrete
covers borrowed into the elevated ground near the bay. This will insure the navy to have a retreating
base God forbid, war was to be declared.

Power production
Geothermal
Ethiopia can produce a sizeable amount of geothermal energy. Although a more accurate study is
needed 30,000MW, (5 times GERD dam) might be feasible.

Moving water
Since the water in the creator will evaporate a constant water supply is needed from the red sea this
insures a constant water inflow meaning a constant turbine motion can be achieved, by taking Eng.
Friedrich Bassler’s estimates we can produce 6800MW.

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By assuming we will have a similar evaporation as that of the Gulf of Eden, we can achieve a 2m annual
evaporation. Actually since our basin is shallower, a higher evaporation rate can be expected.
Considering our surface area to be 10,000 km 2, we will realize a minimum of 633m 3/s inflow is required
for the water to be sustained. However since the canal is quite wide the motion might not have much
influence, hence requiring several turbines to reach a considerable power amount.

Cooperation with Eritrea

One of the greatest philosophers Aristotle has said: “Although noble deeds can move nations and
people, mutual benefit is a stronger reason to act up on”. By allowing Eritrea a percentage of our
benefits, we shall be once more brothers and allies to the end of times. A friend in need is a friend
indeed, and Eritrea is indeed a friend. Therefore, by collaborating with us and gaining a substantial
increase to its economy we shall have a stronger ally in the end.

Ethiopian and Eritrean economy boosted

Aside from the above benefits, the mega construction will hire several employees and after construction
open a thriving market for citizens to work in. Furthermore, the water being closer will cool the nearby
area and increase rain boosting agricultural production.

Risks to consider
There are different risks we have considered in this project. The following are the main risks we have
thought of and we have tried to provide the appropriate solutions or disprove them if they are invalid.

Volcanic Activity
Volcanic activity is a primal force of nature, that can create and destroy islands. [u] Therefore we have to
be extra prudent and vigilant in consider if this will cause a volcanic eruption, or perhaps if the volcanic
activity would cause other unwanted events.

Risk of Eruption
It is better to start explaining that there are numerous underwater volcanoes. The most famous of which
might be that of the Hawaii islands.

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Risk for ships passing through
This risk as the image below shows would render the whole project is mute. Therefore the risk of such
an event happening needs to be considered with great accuracy.

Although this has been considered to be a great risk in more accurate scientific studies it has been
totally debunked. In fact the myth busters on episode 163, has showed that in fact the ships may end up
floating higher as the bubbles exploding under them will give them more lift. Furthermore, ships have
different buoyancy lines for different water conditions. Considering this we can in fact mandate a limit
for the ships to cross the most prone areas if there are any or even the entire bay.

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Water Seepage
Water seepage is a serious phenomenon that has been known to cause irreversible damage to several
dams and structures. Furthermore, salt-water seepage can contaminate ground water (fresh water) in
the area. Therefore, it has to be checked if it can be a detrimental and severely destructive force.

However we must consider that water does not for all major purposes seep up but rather down. Of
course by no means should we ignore the cohesive nature of water. The Capillary effect creates a zone
above the actual water saturation level.

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 [w]

Nevertheless this zone works best in clay soil. The soil condition in the region we are discussing is mostly
sandy loam, and loamy sand. Therefore it will not be greatly considered in this paper but can be further
studied in researches meant for geological purposes.

[x]

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[aa]

The hydraulic conductivity in sandy loam is found to be between 7*10 -11m/s and 2*10-8m/s taking middle
value of both we get 1.4*10 -9.[y] Assuming that Water will have a 30m head difference near the shoreline
(considering ship depth) we arrive at a seepage of 0.0561m/year. [v] This then would mean to have a
seepage of 100m without consider evaporation and percolation would be 1,781.6years. In other words
we shall not consider it.

Canal control
We need to be able to control the canal and the flow of both water and traffic for two main reasons.
The first and main purpose would be the fact that they can block floodwater in case of a water surge.
The water surge may happen due to different reasons, such as tidal waves, rising sea levels, earthquakes
and the like. The second reason would be to regulate movement of ship vessels and depending on the
method used submarines as well. This is needed to stop unauthorized vessels, used by pirates, terrorists,
quarantined ships, and perhaps even enemy warships from crossing.

Flap Gate
The seabed-type Movable Flap-Gate Type Breakwater system uses a series of doors along the seabed
which are rotated and lifted up using their buoyancy to form a continuous, movable breakwater.

16
This is installed for two purposes: as a breakwater for tsunamis and storm surges designed to control
water level changes behind the breakwater, and as a breakwater designed to increase the calmness of
the area behind.

The main feature of this product is how it provides the cheapest defensive system by using the natural
forces at the site, or in other words the power of tsunamis and storm surges, to the maximum.

1. The flaps normally lie flat on the seabed to prevent obstruction of marine traffic and sea
currents, and therefore have negligible visual impact.
2. Allows for a cheap defensive system through using structures and mechanisms that make
effective use of natural forces.
3. Constant monitoring of flap rotation provides visual feedback on the system status for extra
reliability.[s]

MAESLANTKERING
The Maeslantkering is located in the Nieuwe Waterweg near Hoek van Holland and was built between
1991 and 1997. The Maeslant Barrier has the largest movable parts of all flood defences in the world.
The Deltawerk can handle a tidal wave of 5 meters above sea level. The structure is fully automatically
controlled and together with the Hartel barrier and the dike widening Rozenburg forms the Europoort
barrier. The Maeslant barrier is a barrier in front, which means that it absorbs the first blows from the
sea during high water. The storm surge barrier thus protects the inhabitants of South Holland.

The Maeslant barrier closed for the first time during a storm in 2007 and almost during storms in 2002,
2013 and 2014. The official closing level was then reached within a few centimeters. The barrier has two
doors, 210 meters wide, 22 meters high and 15 meters deep. When closed, these fill up with water,

17
causing them to sink to the bottom within two hours. The barrier works with ball joints with a diameter
of 10 meters and a weight of 680 tons.[t]

Conclusion and Recommendation

We recommend the usage of Canal excavation with option 2 and 4. The reason for choosing Canal
excavation is due to the huge amount of time and cost saved. Option 2 is suggested as it not only helps
local contractors to grow but also gives Ethiopia the ability to gain experience in using heavy machinery
for mining. Option 4 is used to reduce construction cost and for safety purpose in the phase near the red
sea. If this is not possible option1 and option 4 should be used. Considering Canal excavation is used and
400Birr/m3, then total cost will be 304.00Biilion ETB = 5.44Billion USD.

The financial gain from this canal is estimated as the following:

1. 6 Billion USD/ year for fish farming

2. 1.5Biilion USD/ year saved from using local port
3. 2 Billion USD/ year generated

Therefore, total gain will be 9.5Billion USD/ year. If indeed this margin can be achieved the 5.44Billion
USD spent will be replaced in the first two years, as that might be the required time to get the area
started. The 9.5Billion does not include the gains to local economy not does it include electricity
production and other benefits gained. In short, a proper study needs to be conducted by multiple
professionals but in this initial study the endeavor is worth taking.

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Furthermore, we would like to add that the calculations only used dump trucks and did not account for
volume moved by loaders, dozers, scrapers, graders, etc.... All of which can significantly reduce the
period required without affecting the truck flow as the excavator certainly would. Therefore, it is
possible to complete the project by using canal excavation to be well under 1 year.

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