RICHARD T.
ELY LECTURE
The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment,
Education, and Family
By CLAUDIA GOLDIN*
I. Evolutionary and Revolutionary Phases
Women’s increased involvement in the econ-
omy was the most significant change in labor
markets during the past century. Their modern
economic role emerged in the United States in
four distinct phases. The first three were evolu-
tionary; the last was revolutionary. The rev-
olution was a “quiet” one, not the “big-bang”
type. The evolutionary phases led, slowly, to
the revolutionary phase. First, I will discuss
the three evolutionary phases and how they
led to the revolutionary phase. I will then
describe the changes that occurred during the
revolutionary phase and end with whether the
revolution, as some have claimed, is stalled or
being reversed.
I am not using the terms “evolution” and
“revolution” lightly. By the term evolution and
the shift to revolution I mean something quite
specific. The distinction between the two per-
tains to three aspects of women’s choices and
decisions. The first concerns “horizon,” that is,
whether at the time of human capital investment
a woman perceives that her lifetime labor force
involvement will be long and continuous or
intermittent and brief. The second concerns
* Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cam-
bridge, MA 02138 and National Bureau of Economic Re-
search (e-mail: cgoldin@harvard.edu). I am grateful to
Lawrence F. Katz for an embarrassingly large amount of
guidance. I am indebted to the Andrew W. Mellon Foun-
dation for providing access to the College and Beyond
dataset and for research funds provided to the Radcliffe
Institute for Advanced Study, where I am Katherine Hamp-
son Bessell Fellow for 2005–2006. Claudia Olivetti and
Bruce Weinberg were enormously generous in their provi-
sion of data and advice. Lisa Blau Kahn was instrumental in
her assistance in using various datasets, and Crystal Yang
provided able assistance on many details. First and fore-
most, I thank George Akerlof for inviting me to present this
lecture.
1
“identity,”1 that is, whether a woman finds
individuality in her job, occupation, profes-
sion, or career. The third concerns “decision
making.” Here the distinction is whether labor
force decisions are made fully jointly, if a woman
is married or in a long-term relationship, or, on the
other hand, whether the woman is a “secondary
worker” who optimizes her time allocation by
taking her husband’s labor market decisions as
given to her.
Thus, the transition from evolution to rev-
olution was a change from static decision-
making, with limited or intermittent horizons,
to dynamic decision-making, with long-term
horizons. It was a change from agents who
work because they and their families “need
the money” to those who are employed, at
least in part, because occupation and employ-
ment define one’s fundamental identity and
societal worth. It involved a change from
“jobs” to “careers,” where the distinction be-
tween these two concepts concerns both ho-
rizon and human capital investment.2 Those
1
George A. Akerlof and Rachel E. Kranton (2000) con-
sider how individuals’ conception of their identity affects
their social interactions.
2
The distinction used here between “job” and “career”
concerns the degree to which the individual believes she
will be in the labor force for a sufficient time to engage
in substantial human capital investment both in formal
schooling and on-the-job training. Those whose partici-
pation will be intermittent will take positions that involve
less depreciation during work absences, whereas those
with a long time horizon of employment will take posi-
tions that require more formal education, involve more
internal promotion, and have a greater loss from out-of-
work spells. These notions are similar to those in Jacob
Mincer and Solomon Polachek (1974) and are consistent
with the dictionary definition of “career,” e.g., “in mod.
language [after Fr. carrière] freq. used for: A course of
professional life or employment, which affords opportu-
nity for progress or advancement in the world” (Oxford
English Dictionary).
2 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS
in the evolutionary phases married early
enough that their adult identity was formed
after marriage, whereas those in the revolu-
tionary phase married late enough that their
identity formation could precede marriage. It
was a change from passive actors, who take
the income and time allocation of other mem-
bers as given, to active participants who bar-
gain somewhat effectively in the household
and the labor market.
The shift from evolution to revolution, more-
over, did not occur among only more highly ed-
ucated women, although they will be a focus of
this essay. Rather, the changes were far more
universal, as can be seen in data on the age at first
marriage, divorce, number and timing of children,
relative earnings, and labor market attachment.
A chronology of the evolutionary phases is
needed to understand the forces that led each to
morph into the other and ultimately to the rev-
olutionary phase. Some change occurs to co-
horts and some is by period. Because working
women range in age, typically from their late
teens to their sixties, these precise dates should
be considered with respect to women in their
thirties. The chronology may be a bit different if
another age group is chosen.
Phase I occurred from the late nineteenth
century to the 1920s; Phase II, a transition era,
was from about 1930 to 1950; and Phase III, the
“roots of the revolution,” took place from 1950
to around the mid- to late-1970s. I date Phase
IV, the quiet revolution, as beginning in the
late-1970s, when the birth cohorts of the late
1940s were in their early thirties, and continu-
ing to the present, for the revolution is not over.
What economic and social indicators reveal the
outcomes of the phases? The primary series used
to demonstrate economic and social change is
labor force participation, as well as the related
series on annual hours of work and full-time work.
But these series, I will show, reveal more about
the evolutionary phases rather than the revolution-
ary phase. One must seek other series for evidence
of the revolutionary phase.
The series on labor force participation, full-
time work, and annual hours of work are fairly
continuous, albeit with some periods of quick-
ening. Although they do not reveal sharp
changes, the increase in participation and the
greater number of hours worked by women was
a critical prerequisite for the transition from the
evolutionary to the revolutionary phase. More
MAY 2006
important, though, is that labor force participa-
tion by itself is not revolutionary in the sense
that I am using the word. Increased participation
and greater hours of work need not involve
changes in horizon, identity, and decision-
making. Women in poor countries, for example,
are often employed in the paid labor force to a
considerable degree but few would claim they
were part of a societal and economic revolution.
Adult women were employed in the United
States historically. Yet, prior to the 1940s em-
ployed married women came disproportionately
from the lower part of the education distribu-
tion. Their identities, just like that of women in
poor countries, were not found in their occupa-
tions. Their decisions were made as secondary
workers and their market work effort evapo-
rated when family incomes rose sufficiently.3
The various series that disclose the revolution-
ary phase are wide ranging. They include the
expectations of future employment by teenaged
girls, the determinants of life satisfaction, various
investments in human capital (such as college
enrollment and graduation, college majors, enroll-
ment in and graduation from professional and
graduate schools), earnings relative to comparable
men, labor force participation of women with in-
fants, lifetime labor force participation, the age at
first marriage, and the fraction of one’s life spent
married. Each of these series contains a sharp
break or inflection point signifying social change.
These inflection points, moreover, are remarkably
coincident in the approximately ten series I will
present.
The revolutionary part of the process—like
many revolutions—was preceded by fundamental,
long-run, and evolutionary changes that were nec-
essary but not sufficient for the revolutionary
phase. Before I get to the revolutionary phase, I
must first explore the three evolutionary phases,
convince you that there was evolutionary and then
revolutionary change, and account for the
changes. I will, in addition, link the evolutionary
changes to pioneering contributions to the subject
of labor economics, mainly labor supply. I will
then turn to the revolutionary period and address
whether an authentic, long-lasting revolution oc-
curred or whether the revolution has stalled or
3
On the U-shaped relationship between economic devel-
opment and female labor force participation, see Goldin
(1995).
VOL. 96 NO. 2 RICHARD T. ELY LECTURE
reversed. Although much that I have to say is well
known and widely accepted, I promise to provide
newly uncovered facts and interpretations.
II. The Three Phases of Evolutionary Change
and the Birth of Modern Labor Economics
The evolutionary period, as I have noted,
occurred in three phases. The shifts from one
phase to the next were due to various exogenous
changes. These changes include the increased
relative demand for female office workers in the
early twentieth century which made “nice” jobs
available, and the growth of educational insti-
tutions at the secondary level from the 1910s to
the 1940s which greatly increased the supply of
potential office workers. Changes in household
production technology from the 1920s to the
1940s also altered female labor supply, as did
institutional changes that made part-time work
readily available and dispensed with barriers to
the employment of married women.
Each of the phases produced different mag-
nitudes for the two key parameters of labor
supply: the own-wage (compensated) elasticity
and the income elasticity of the Slutsky equa-
tion. When considerable social stigma existed
concerning the paid work of wives, the income
effect was large (and negative). When, at the
same time, the substitution effect was small,
increased demand could do little to increase
women’s paid employment, and higher incomes
for husbands operated in the opposite direction.
Thus, the growth of married women’s employ-
ment had to await various changes that altered
the two parameters of the Slutsky equation. For
various reasons that will become clear, the sub-
stitution elasticity of labor supply eventually
grew and the income effect (in absolute value)
shrank. In the late 1940s and 1950s, labor de-
mand began to shift out across a rather elastic
female labor supply function. The effect contin-
ued, and married women’s labor force partici-
pation rates climbed. Because the elasticities
changed in each of the phases, so did the rela-
tive importance of labor supply and labor de-
mand in explaining the increase in labor force
participation and hours worked.
Each evolutionary phase, moreover, led to
major advances in the field of modern empirical
and theoretical labor economics that mirrored
the reality of women’s changing role. The study
of labor was once mired in the institutions of the
3
labor market. As women’s employment ex-
panded, economists began to study labor supply
and the decisions made by families and house-
holds. My discussion of the evolution of mod-
ern labor economics will stop with develop-
ments in the 1960s, as the field was firmly
established by then and the list of economists
who made major contributions since the 1960s
is too large to include here.
Women’s labor market choices and decisions
have become central to the field of labor econom-
ics, as a perusal of any undergraduate text will
demonstrate.4 It would not be much of an exag-
geration to claim that women gave “birth” to mod-
ern labor economics, especially labor supply.
Economists need variance to analyze changes in
behavioral responses, and women provided an
abundance of that. Men, by and large, were not as
interesting, since their participation and hours var-
ied far less in cross section and over time.
A. Phase I: Late-Nineteenth Century to the
1920s—The Independent Female Worker
From the late-nineteenth century to the
1920s, female workers in the labor market, as
opposed to those working in the household or
family business, were generally young and un-
married. They were often piece workers in man-
ufacturing or labored in the service sector as
domestics and laundresses. These women expe-
rienced little or no learning on the job and saw
only slight gain from formal human capital be-
yond common or elementary school, if that.5 A
scant minority were professional workers, often
teachers and clerical employees, a group that
expanded enormously beginning in the 1910s.
The vast majority of women workers were
4
See the textbook for undergraduates by Ronald G.
Ehrenberg and Robert S. Smith (2006) on the relative im-
portance of research on women’s labor force participation,
hours, earnings, occupations, household production, human
capital investment, and so forth. The index listing for
“women” is more than three times longer than that for
“men,” and there are additional listings under “gender,”
“discrimination,” “maternity benefits,” and others relating
directly to women.
5
About 47 percent of all female workers in manufactur-
ing in 1890 were paid by the piece and more than 30 percent
of all white female workers in 1890 were in the service
sector. In two surveys of working women in 1907 in which
formal education was asked, the monetary return to a year of
education was between 1 and 2 percent when estimated
around six years of education (Goldin, 1990, table 4.1).
4 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS
poorly educated, often from low-income house-
holds and those headed by a foreign-born indi-
vidual. During this phase, the average married
woman worker was less educated than the pop-
ulation average, suggesting that the income ef-
fect greatly swamped the substitution effect.
Prior to the 1920s, women almost always exited
the workforce at marriage, although some in
poorer homes and among the more highly edu-
cated did not. Substantial social stigma regarding
the work of wives outside the home existed due in
large measure to the nature of the work. Jobs were
often dirty, dangerous, repetitive, and long in
hours per day and days per week.
The income elasticity was therefore large,
whereas the substitution elasticity was small,
although its precise magnitude is uncertain. The
result was that the (negative) income effect
from increased husbands’ income greatly ex-
ceeded the (positive) substitution effect from
increased wives’ earnings.6
With a very inelastic labor supply function,
the increase in female labor force participation
rates from 1890 to 1930 —9.5 percentage points
for women 25 to 44 years old and 7.3 percent-
age points for married women 35 to 44 years old
(Figure 1)—must have resulted largely from
shifts in the labor supply function. In addition,
the large negative income effect means that
positive supply shifts had to have been substan-
tial in magnitude to outweigh the negative effect
of increased husbands’ income.7
The field of modern labor economics, like
that of market work for married women, was
nascent at the dawn of the twentieth century.
Female workers were of interest to economists
because of social policy issues, such as wage
equity, the minimum wage, and maximum-
hours laws. Edith Abbott was among the most
prolific of the economists researching women in
6
See Goldin (1990, table 5.2) for data on the wage
(uncompensated) elasticity (␩), the own-substitution (com-
pensated wage) elasticity (␩s), and the income elasticity (␧)
as estimated in eight cross-city studies from around 1900 to
1970 and one time series study for 1950 to 1980. The
own-substitution (compensated wage) elasticity (␩s) is cal-
culated from the Slutsky equation: ␩ ⫽ ␩s ⫺ ␣ 䡠 ␧, where
␣ ⫽ wife’s full-time income divided by husband’s (or
family’s) actual income.
7
Positive supply shifters include the greatly increased
education of young women, decreased fertility, the greater
number of nice jobs for women, and the related change in
norms regarding women’s work.
MAY 2006
FIGURE 1. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES FOR
FEMALES AND MALES BY AGE AND MARITAL STATUS:
1890 TO 2004
Notes: All races, marital statuses, and education groups are
included unless indicated otherwise. The labor force partic-
ipation rate from 1890 to 1930 is the fraction of “gainful
workers” in the relevant population. The difference between
the Census and CPS for females is small, and somewhat
larger for males.
Sources: 1890 to 1970, Goldin (1990) from U.S. Population
Census; 1965 to 2004, March Current Population Survey
(CPS).
the early 1900s.8 She was also a historian who
reminded her readers that lower-class women
had always worked, if not in the market then at
home, and that they faced a life no different
from that of their grandmothers. But the wom-
en’s movement, the first generations of college
women, and the drive for the franchise held the
promise of real change for Abbott, who ob-
served that middle-class working women were
embarking on a “social revolution” (Abbott,
1906). Richard T. Ely, a founder of the Amer-
ican Economic Association, its first secretary
and sixth president, and whom this lecture me-
morializes, called the period the “Era of
Woman” and in reaction to a call for restrictions
on women to protect men’s jobs averred, “Rev-
olutions do not go backward.”9 Despite the op-
8
Edith Abbott published 13 articles in the Journal of
Political Economy from 1904 (two years before she re-
ceived her Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chi-
cago) to 1911, and 19 from 1904 to 1925, and she had six
in the American Journal of Sociology from 1908 to 1911.
She also published about 20 books in her lifetime, most of
which concerned such progressive social reform issues as
housing, immigrants, crime, prisons, and truancy, in addi-
tion to women’s employment and its history.
9
Helen Campbell (1893, pp. v, vii). The aphorism is
apparently due to President Abraham Lincoln but in the
VOL. 96 NO. 2 RICHARD T. ELY LECTURE
timism of Abbott and Ely, the revolution in
women’s work would take another 75 years and
some today believe it is going backward, a view
I will evaluate in this essay.
B. Phase II: 1930s to 1950 —Easing the
Constraints on Married Women’s Work
From 1930 to 1950 the labor force participation
rate for married women 35 to 44 years old in-
creased by 15.5 percentage points, or from about
10 percent to 25 percent (Figure 1). Whereas just
8 percent of employed women were married in
1890, the number rose to 26 percent in 1930 and
47 percent in 1950. The fraction of single women
in the labor force had not declined by much.
Rather, the labor force participation of married
women had increased substantially.
The shift from Phase I to Phase II came about
because of several complementary factors that
were, in large measure, exogenous to female labor
supply. The most important were the greatly in-
creased demand for office and other clerical work-
ers beginning in the early 1900s with the arrival of
new types of information technologies, and the
enormous growth in high school enrollment and
graduation from 1910 to 1930. The fraction of the
female labor force (nonfarm) employed as clerical
workers rose from 6 percent in 1900 to 23 percent
in 1930; whereas 24 percent of clerical workers in
1900 were women, the number rose to 52 percent
in 1930.10 Nationwide, high school graduation
rates increased from 9 percent in 1910 to 27 per-
cent in 1928. In the states outside the South, the
increase was from 11 percent to 32 percent, and to
56 percent by 1938.11
Both the increased demand for clerical work-
ers and the increased supply of high school
graduates meant that, prior to marriage, young
women entered nicer, cleaner, shorter-hour, and
thus more “respectable” jobs. Some remained
employed after marriage, although levels were
insubstantial until the 1940s. Part of the exodus
at marriage was due to the institution of mar-
riage bars, which were regulations that forced
1890s it may not have required a reference since it was so
well known.
10
See Goldin (1984) on the switch from manufacturing
to clerical positions and the relative roles of supply and
demand.
11
The “high school movement” is discussed in Goldin
(1998).
5
single women to leave employment upon mar-
riage and barred the hiring of married women.
These bars existed in many school districts and
some clerical employment, especially in the
1930s, but were almost entirely eliminated after
the early 1940s.12
As work for women became more accepted,
particularly by their husbands, the income effect
declined. At the same time, the substitution effect
rose substantially. One of the reasons for the in-
creased substitution effect concerns the rise of
part-time work. Although weekly hours of work
had been substantially reduced from 1900 to 1930,
part-time work was a rarity.13 The absence of hour
and day flexibility placed bounds on the substitu-
tion elasticity. As the real wage for women rose,
the margin of change was participation, not hours.
In consequence, a smaller increase in both hours
and employment could occur than had there been
greater flexibility in hours (and days) of work.
With the creation of scheduled part-time work in
the 1940s and its enormous diffusion in the 1950s,
the substitution effect became larger. Reinforcing
factors include the almost complete diffusion of
modern, electric household technologies, such as
the refrigerator and the washing machine, and the
previous diffusion of basic facilities such as elec-
tricity, running water, and the flush toilet.14 The
reduced price of these appliances served to de-
crease women’s reservation wage and increase the
elasticity of the aggregate female labor supply
function.
12
On marriage bars, see Goldin (1991b).
13
Hours of work in private, nonagricultural employment
decreased from about 60 per week in 1900 to below 45 per
week in 1930, just before the large, and mainly temporary,
decline during the Great Depression (Goldin, 2000). On the
paucity of scheduled part-time work in the pre-1940 era, see
Goldin (1990, chap. 6).
14
Jeremy Greenwood et al. (2005, fig. 1), who empha-
size the role of household technology in increasing wom-
en’s labor market participation, have compiled data on
adoption percentages for “basic facilities,” such as electric-
ity and indoor plumbing, and household electrical appli-
ances. Most basic facilities had been adopted in 60 to 90
percent of households by 1950. In terms of appliances, 80
percent had refrigerators by 1950, and about 60 percent had
vacuum cleaners and electric washers. Omitted from this
work is the use of market substitutes for home appliances.
About 70 percent of the households in the 1917–19 Cost of
Living Survey, which included primarily middle-income
families, used commercial laundry services and spent
enough to do six to seven pounds per week; 33 percent ate
meals in restaurants; and 16 percent employed servants
(Caroline M. Moehling, 2001).
6 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS
The reason for the increase in female labor
force participation during Phase II is compli-
cated by changes in both the income and sub-
stitution elasticities of female labor supply. The
factors responsible for increased female labor
force participation in the early part of the phase
were primarily shifts in the labor supply func-
tion, similar to the discussion for Phase I, since
supply was rather inelastic. But in the second
part of Phase II, labor supply became more
elastic and both supply and demand shifts
played a role in increasing female participation.
As labor supply became even more elastic, as
will be discussed for Phase III, labor demand
shifts would swamp those on the supply side.
As married women began to enter the labor
market in greater numbers, labor economists ana-
lyzed female labor supply decisions in the context
of the family unit, rather than the individual, and
inquired about the influence of husband’s income
on wife’s “gainful employment.”15 Interest ini-
tially emerged from an investigation of backward
bending labor supply functions by Paul H. Doug-
las (1934) and Douglas and Erika H. Schoenberg
(1937). By exploring the labor supply of men and
women across cities, Douglas noticed that married
women’s gainful employment was negatively re-
lated to husband’s income. The evidence sug-
gested a rather large income effect, “a freeing of
married women from the necessity of working
outside the home” (Douglas and Schoenberg,
1937, p. 61). But this large negative income
effect would soon begin to decline in (abso-
lute) magnitude. Had it not, married women’s
labor force participation would never have
greatly increased.
C. Phase III: 1950s to 1970s—Roots of the
Revolution
Married women’s labor force participation
continued to expand in the 1950s to 1970s,
greatly at first for an older group of women (45
to 54 years old) and with soaring rates later for
a younger group (25 to 34 years old). For mar-
ried women in the 35- to 44-year-old group,
15
The distinction between labor force participation and
“gainful employment” is that the former concept was intro-
duced with the 1940 Census, whereas previously the ques-
tion asked was the occupation in which the individual was
“gainfully employed.”
MAY 2006
participation increased from 25 to 46 percent
from 1950 to 1970 (Figure 1).
In the 1940s and 1950s, female labor supply
had become considerably more elastic and thus
more responsive to changes in wages. At the
same time, the income effect continued its
downward trend as work for married women
became more acceptable.16 The average mar-
ried working woman by the 1940s was more
educated than the average married woman in the
population, a reverse of my previous observa-
tion and another indication that the substitution
effect had begun to swamp the income effect.
Many factors contributed to the increase in
the own-wage elasticity. One was the creation
of scheduled part-time employment. The avail-
ability of part-time work by firms led to an
increase in those working fewer than 35 hours
per week from 18 percent of the female labor
force in 1940 to 28 percent in 1960, and from 14
percent of the female sales sector in 1940 to 40
percent in 1960. Another factor was the greater
acceptance of married women in the labor force
and the almost complete end of marriage bars.
Labor supply had become sufficiently elastic
and the income elasticity sufficiently small that
most of the increase in female labor force par-
ticipation and hours of work during Phase III
was demand driven. The demand function for
labor increased rapidly over a relatively stable
and highly elastic female labor supply function.
But despite large gains in employment, mar-
ried women were still the secondary earners in
their households. They took the labor supply
decisions of their husbands as given; they were
tied stayers at times and tied movers at others.
Their human capital continued to increase, but
the investments occurred mainly off the job in
formal education or vocational training, rather
than on the job. Secretaries, teachers, nurses,
social workers, and librarians, among others,
came to their jobs with most of the necessary
skills. Some advancement was possible in of-
fices and elsewhere, but not much, according to
most estimates of earnings functions. Interviews
for first jobs, even those of women with college
16
See Goldin (1990, table 5.2) for labor supply elasticity
estimates from 1900 to 1980. The evidence for 1940 to 1960
relies on cross-city estimates from the work of William G.
Bowen and T. Aldrich Finegan (1969), Mincer (1962), and
Glen G. Cain (1966).
VOL. 96 NO. 2 RICHARD T. ELY LECTURE
degrees, often began with the straightforward
question: “How well do you type?”17
Even though many would eventually be em-
ployed for a significant portion of their lives,
their expectations of future employment, when
they were young, were quite different. Women
born from 1931 to 1940, for example, were
eventually employed for more than 40 percent
of their post-schooling years (up to around age
50); the figure is 55 percent for those born from
1941 to 1950.18 Most of these women had an-
ticipated brief and intermittent employment in
various jobs, not generally in a career. Some
trained for the remote possibility that they
would have to support themselves later in life.
College, for many, was a way to meet a suitable
spouse rather than a way to embark on a career.
Their investments in education and training
were consistent with their expectations. But
they were in for a great surprise.
The Phase III decades were ones of great
expansion of the female labor force and also
immense strides in modern labor economics.
Clarence Long (1958) picked up where Douglas
left off.19 Long was an empirical economist
who explored the large increase in married
women’s labor force participation from 1890 to
the 1950s and was puzzled by an apparent in-
consistency. Cross-section labor supply esti-
mates for 1940 from the U.S. Census and for
17
In a U.S. Department of Labor Women’s Bureau sur-
vey of college women who graduated in the class of 1957,
a surprisingly large fraction remarked that they were asked
how well they could type in their first job interview
(1957– 64 College Graduate Survey; Goldin, 1990, p. 230).
Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor has often
recounted that her first job interview, obtained through
personal contacts, after graduating near the top of her 1952
Stanford Law School class, landed her a position as a legal
secretary and no California law firm offered her a position
as a lawyer. In Rona Jaffe’s best-selling novel and movie,
The Best of Everything (1958), the main character graduates
from Radcliffe in the 1950s and assumes a secretarial po-
sition in a publishing house with the hopes of becoming an
editor. Among college graduate women 30 to 34 years old
in the 1950 U.S. Census, 9.7 percent were secretaries and 19
percent were clerical workers. The occupation of secretary
was the second most numerous, behind teaching, and was
slightly more important than that of nurse.
18
These figures are calculated from the Panel Study in
Income Dynamics (PSID), 1968 to 2003, and are for the
unweighted sample of white women.
19
John D. Durand (1948) also added to the literature on
the causes of change and emphasized altered customs and
norms fostered by what he termed “the succession of
generations.”
7
1951 and 1956 from the Current Population
Reports revealed substantial negative effects
from increases in husband’s income.20 The time
series data clearly showed growth in female
labor supply. Because husbands’ income had
increased substantially, the two findings were
apparently inconsistent. Long’s attempt to re-
solve the paradox between the cross-section es-
timates and the time series data was to argue
that the female labor supply function shifted
outward and to explore some of the reasons,
such as advances in household production. He
concluded that although these factors moved
in the right direction, their magnitude was
insufficient.
Jacob Mincer (1962) resolved the apparent
paradox between the time series and cross-
section results by considering both the income
and substitution effects.21 He also recognized
that individual-level cross-section estimates of
the income effect would be potentially biased
upward for use in time-series simulations. The
reason was that husbands’ incomes in cross
section contain a transitory component to which
wives would respond, whereas the time series
averages had less of the transitory and more of
the permanent component. According to
Mincer, the use of city-level data reduced the
transitory component of husbands’ income and
produced coefficient estimates appropriate for
use in the time series simulation. The resulting
substitution effect was considerably greater than
the income effect, and the apparent paradox was
20
Clarence Long (1958, chap. 7) used aggregated data at
the city level. The 1950 Census published tables were not
yet available. Note that Long did not directly consider the
existence of a substitution effect in addition to an income
effect. Although he tried to assess the effects of increased
female education, he compared the relative levels of edu-
cation for older men with those of various groups of women
rather than assessing the differences these levels meant for
women’s employment and earnings.
21
Mincer, in an interview with me in 2002, recounted
the course he took from Albert Rees during his post-grad-
uate stint at the University of Chicago. “Al Rees spent that
particular quarter reporting on the book by Clarence Long
... [and] this paradox that if the husband’s income was high
the woman was unlikely to be in the labor force. But over
time income grew for both husband and wife, and there was
an increase in participation rather than a decrease. ... I was
sitting in Al Rees’ class and I asked myself “what about
taking two variables rather than one?” We had income and
prices or wages. Shouldn’t that tell what was going on? It
could, if the price effect was stronger than the income
effect. But then you have to bring in the family.”
8 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS
resolved. As real incomes rose, the labor force
participation rate of married women increased
even though the earnings of women relative to
those of men advanced only slightly.
Major advances in labor economics, mostly
associated with the work of Gary S. Becker,
extended the analysis of women as part of a
family unit.22 Fertility became an endogenous
variable; marriage was analyzed as a market;
divorce was a possibility and a threat point. The
family was the optimizing unit with the family
utility function optimized by the altruistic fam-
ily head.23
III. The Quiet Revolution—Phase IV:
Late 1970s to the Present
A. Revolutionary Indicators
Most labor force participation measures do
not divulge that there was a revolution in wom-
en’s economic status since the late 1970s. An
exception is the labor force participation rate for
married women (20 to 44 years old) with a child
under the age of one year, which soared from
0.20 in 1973 to 0.62 in 2000.24 But, in general,
participation rates for married women, as well
as rates for the fraction working full time, reveal
only small increases in the past several de-
cades.25 In contrast, married women’s labor
force participation increased greatly in evolu-
tionary Phases II and III. As I discussed earlier,
the labor force participation rate, by itself, is not
a reliable indicator of a social and economic
revolution. The increase in participation during
Phase III, however, was to become an important
precondition for the quiet revolution for reasons
that will become clear.
22
See Becker (1981), although many of the articles on
marriage, fertility, and the family were first published in the
1960s and 1970s.
23
On bargaining models within households that do not
posit an altruistic head, see the seminal work of Marjorie B.
McElroy and Mary Jean Horney (1981), as well as a novel
version by Shelly Lundberg and Robert A. Pollak (1993).
24
March Current Population Survey (CPS), for white
non-Hispanic women. A decline since the year 2000 may be
apparent to some but it has lasted for too brief a period and
in too sluggish a macroeconomy for any definitive statement
concerning whether the labor force participation rate of
mothers with infants has declined.
25
The decreases in the last five years are probably due to
macroeconomic phenomena, since participation rates for
men have also dropped.
MAY 2006
If soaring participation rates are a precondi-
tion but not a sign of the revolution, then what
are its indicators? Revolutionary indicators are
found in various series that reflect the three
changes mentioned previously: horizon, iden-
tity, and decision making.26 I will mainly dis-
cuss the first two. In almost all cases, the turning
points of the indicator series are strikingly sim-
ilar by cohort. For marriage age, college grad-
uation, and professional school enrollment, the
turning points were all around 1970. Changes in
occupations occurred in the early 1970s. For
earnings relative to comparable men, the turn-
ing point was a bit later, around 1980. Expec-
tations regarding future work, social norms
concerning women’s family and career, and fac-
tors accounting for women’s life satisfaction be-
gan to change in the late 1960s and 1970s. Some
of the changes were preconditions for others, such
as college majors, professional school enrollment,
and occupational change. Their synchronicity
should not be surprising. The series, taken to-
gether, present a logical progression.
Expanded Horizons.—By expanded hori-
zons, I mean that women more accurately
anticipated their future work lives.27 With
more accurate expectations, they could better pre-
pare by investing in formal education and they
could assume positions that involved advance-
ment. That is, they could plan for careers rather
than jobs.
The revolutionary phase began with co-
horts born in the late 1940s who were teen-
agers in the mid-1960s. These young women
began to perceive that their adult lives would
differ substantially from those of their moth-
ers’ generation. Their expectations of future
employment when they were in their mid to
late teens can be gleaned from the Nation-
26
On decision-making and bargaining during Phase IV,
see the evidence in Dora Costa and Matthew Kahn (2000),
which suggests greater equality in location decisions, at
least among college graduates. That bargaining with one’s
employer may not be female-friendly, see Linda Babcock
and Sara Laschever (2004).
27
They did not, however, do a very good job forecasting
their future family size. A far greater fraction of women in
the College and Beyond dataset (to be discussed) responded
as freshmen (in the Astin survey) that they expected to have
children than actually did— 82 percent (at about 18 years
old) said they expected to have children but only 69 percent
actually did (by 37 years of age).
VOL. 96 NO. 2 RICHARD T. ELY LECTURE
al Longitudinal Survey (NLS) of Young
Women, which began with 14- to 24-year-
olds in 1968, and the NLS of Youth, which
began with 14- to 21-year-olds in 1979. Both
surveys asked similar questions about ex-
pectations of paid employment at age 35.
Their responses can be linked by respondent
age to see how expectations changed over
time for young women of various ages (Fig-
ure 2).
Young women in their late teens during the
1970s upwardly revised their expectations of
being in the paid labor force when they were
older. They began with expectations similar
to the actual participation of their mothers’
generation (their prediction was around 0.33
whereas their mothers’ actual rate was about
0.3). But in the next ten years young women
began to correctly anticipate, and in fact
slightly overstate, their future labor force par-
ticipation rates. By 1974, young women were
predicting their participation rate to be in the
0.55 to 0.65 range. Actual rates for 35-year-
olds had risen to 0.46 in 1974, but women in
their late twenties had experienced large in-
creases in the early 1970s, suggesting future
advances for those in their thirties. By the late
1970s young women were predicting partici-
pation rates above 0.80, whereas the actual
rate in 1978 was 0.56. By the time the NLS
youth reached thirty-five years of age their
participation rate was about 0.75.28 Young
women gained horizon and perceived that
their lives would differ from those of their-
elders.29 Their revised expectations of future
employment, in turn, led young women to
continue with college and to graduate.30
28
Actual labor force participation rates are from the
CPS and are for married, white women averaged for ages
34 to 36. The figure of 0.3 for their mothers is for 1962.
Data from the two NLS surveys are for white females
only.
29
Young women in the early 1970s may have been
enabled to make more informed extrapolations because the
resurgence of feminism in the 1960s and the women’s
liberation movement in the 1970s supported their challeng-
ing older ways and outmoded norms.
30
Goldin et al. (2005) find that among female pre-
college teens (who were 14 to 18 years old in 1968) those
who stated that they would be in the labor force when they
were 35 years old had eventual college graduation rates that
were 14.3 percentage points higher than those who said they
would be “at home, with family” at age 35. Those in the
former group had a mean graduation rate of 32.8 percent,
9
FIGURE 2. EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS OF FEMALE YOUTH
BY AGE: 1967 TO 1984
Notes: The NLS data are the response to whether an indi-
vidual stated she expected to be in the paid labor force at
age 35 and are given here for white women. The NLS data
link the averages for each age group over time. Thus, the
14- to 15-year-olds in the NLS68 in 1968 became 16 to 17
years old in 1970 and are linked to the 16- to 17-year-olds
in 1979 in the NLSY.
Sources: 1968 National Longitudinal Survey of Young
Women (NLS68) and 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of
Youth (NLSY). See Goldin (2005) for details.
In the 1970s and 1980s, girls began to take
more college preparation courses in high school
and narrowed the gap between girls and boys in
science and math courses. Relative to boys, girls
increased their aptitude scores in math and read-
ing. They increased their math and reading
scores by nearly one-fifth of a standard devia-
tion, so that in 1992 girls who were high school
seniors were just slightly behind boys in math
and considerably ahead in reading.31
As a consequence, females greatly increased
their college attendance and graduation rates
relative to males beginning with birth cohorts in
the late 1940s. For the earliest birth cohorts
shown in Figure 3, from 1877 to the 1910s,
college attendance rates were fairly equal, in
whereas the mean graduation rate for the latter group was
18.5 percent.
31
The relative increases in math and science courses and
math and reading aptitude test scores are from a comparison
of the NLS72 and the NELS88. The changes are consistent
with those from the National Assessment of Educational
Progress (NAEP), although somewhat larger, and U.S. De-
partment of Education transcript surveys (Goldin et al.,
2005).
10 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS MAY 2006

27
0.10
26
Some college
College graduate
0.05
Female rate minus male rate

25

Median age at first marriage

College Attendance
24
0.00

College Graduation 23

-0.05
22

21
-0.10

20
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Birth year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Birth year
FIGURE 3. FEMALE MINUS MALE COLLEGE ATTENDANCE
AND GRADUATION RATES: BIRTH COHORTS, 1877 TO 1974 FIGURE 4. MEDIAN AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE FOR BIRTH
COHORTS OF FEMALE COLLEGE GRADUATES AND
Notes: The underlying data are the fraction of four-year ATTENDEES: 1931 TO 1968 BIRTH YEARS
college attendees or graduates by birth cohort and sex
adjusted to 35 years of age for the U.S. born. College Notes: Three-year centered moving averages are shown.
graduates are those with 16 or more completed years of Sources: Current Population Survey; Fertility and Marital
schooling for the 1940 –1980 samples and those with a History Supplement, 1990 and 1995.
bachelor’s degree or higher in the 1990 –2000 samples. The
underlying samples include all U.S.-born residents aged 25 to
64 years. For information on the age-adjustment regressions,
see De Long et al. (2003, fig. 1) and Goldin et al. (2005). But by the early 1980s the median female col-
Sources: 1940 to 2000 Census of Population Integrated Public lege graduate married at 25 years old. With a
Use Micro-data Samples (IPUMS). later age at first marriage, women could take
college more seriously. Most women who had
married within a year of graduation must have
part because women often attended two-year met their future husbands while in college,
teacher-training schools. With the cohorts born possibly in the same college. Although some
in the late 1910s and 1920s, large differences aspects of college social life did not differ
emerged between male and female college at- much across these generations, the pressure to
tendance and graduation rates. From the cohorts meet a spouse while in college diminished
born in the 1930s to the late 1940s, males had a considerably.
10-percentage-point lead in attendance and al- Not only did women increase their attend-
most the same for graduation. But with the ance and graduation from college more than
cohorts born in the late 1940s, the lead was men, they also began to close the gap with men
swiftly eliminated for both attendance and with regard to college majors. Whereas in
graduation. 1970 a standard dissimilarity index for college
A set of related demographic changes during majors between men and women exceeded 0.5,
the same period occurred for college women. it fell to about 0.3 in 1985 (Goldin, 2005). Both
The median age at first marriage increased by an men and women increased their majors in busi-
astounding 2.5 years for female college gradu- ness administration, but women did to a greater
ates born between 1949 and 1956, that is, be- extent and reduced their concentrations in the
tween those married in the early 1970s and more traditional female fields of education, lit-
those married in the early 1980s (Figure 4). The erature, languages, and home economics. Wom-
age at first marriage continued to climb by an- en’s majors shifted from those that were
other year during the next decade. A similar “consumption” related to those that were “in-
increase in the age at first marriage also oc- vestment” related.
curred for women who attended but did not Women also began to further their education
graduate from a four-year college. in professional and graduate schools around
The median female college graduate from the 1970 (Figure 5). Whereas in the late 1960s one
1950s to the early 1970s was married within a in 20 entering law school was a woman, two out
year after college graduation—at 22.5 years old. of five were in 1980, and parity was reached in
VOL. 96 NO. 2
0.5
Medical
Law
Dentistry
0.4
MBA
Fraction female
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 themselves before having to choose to change
1955 1965 1975 1985
Year of professional school entry
FIGURE 5. FRACTION FEMALE AMONG FIRST-YEAR
STUDENTS IN PROFESSIONAL PROGRAMS: 1955 TO 2005
Sources: First-year law students from the American Bar As-
sociation Web site: http://www.abanet.org/legaled/statistics/
femstats.html. First-year medical students (to 1994) from
Journal of the American Medical Association (various years
1978 to 1998) and (from 1994 to 2005) from the American
Association of Medical Colleges Web site http://www.aamc
.org/data/facts/2005/2005summary.htm. First-year dentistry
students extrapolated from dental degrees awarded lagged
four years, from U.S. Department of Education, NCES
(2005, table 257). Masters in business administration first-
year students extrapolated from MBA degrees awarded
lagged two years, from U.S. Department of Education,
NCES (2005, table 278).
the early 2000s. A similar trend occurred for
medical students. The increase in the fraction of
females also rose for other professional pro-
grams including dentistry, business administra-
tion, veterinary medicine, optometry, and
pharmacy. Most important is that the turning
points for the four professions given in Figure
5 all occurred during the early 1970s.
With longer and more informed horizons,
years of accumulated job experience increased
and the returns to job experience increased as
well. Most estimates of returns to experience
from the 1970s and 1980s show that returns
increased for women by a very large amount,
but that returns increased by a rather small
amount for men.32 Greater and more appropri-
32
On the increase in returns to experience see Francine
D. Blau and Lawrence M. Kahn (1997), Claudia Olivetti
(2001), and June O’Neill and Polachek (1993). On the
increase in hours of work due to the increase in returns, see
Olivetti (2005). Although all agree that returns increased
more for women than men, the magnitudes reported differ.
Blau and Kahn, and O’Neill and Polachek report a doubling
RICHARD T. ELY LECTURE 11
ate levels of human capital investment are one
possible reason why returns to job experience
increased for women relative to men. Other
possible reasons include antidiscrimination
laws and governmental interventions to enforce
them.
Altered Identities.—The revolution can also
be seen in the changed outlook of women con-
cerning their individual identities. As women
married later, they could “make a name” for
1995 2005 their name. In the 1970s, and continuing in the
1980s, more women retained their surname
upon marriage, particularly among those who
had advanced degrees. Virtually all married
women took their husband’s name in the early
1970s. By 1990 about 20 percent of all college
graduate women retained their surname at mar-
riage, although during the 1990s the percentage
declined somewhat (Goldin and Maria Shim,
2004).
Ever since the mid-1960s a significant frac-
tion of American college freshmen have been
surveyed about their future personal satisfaction
and the relative roles of family, finances, com-
munity, meaningful philosophy of life, helping
others, and career success. Beginning in the
early 1970s, women placed greater emphasis on
coworker recognition and career success in the
factors they believed would be important to
their personal satisfaction, and they placed far
less emphasis on their concern with others.33
Their responses, moreover, became more simi-
lar to those of comparable men entering college.
In the Survey of American Freshmen (Alexander
W. Astin et al., 2002), females increased
the weight they placed on recognition by col-
leagues and financial success; males increased
their relative weight on family (Figure 6). By
the early 1980s men and women gave about
equal weight to recognition and family. Women
had changed considerably and were far more
of the returns to women. Olivetti shows for a somewhat
longer period (1970s and 1990s) that women’s returns in-
creased by about 25 percent and men’s from 6 to 9 percent.
33
Concern with others can be observed in the objectives
“helping others who are in difficulty,” “participating in
community action program,” and “helping to promote racial
understanding.” All of these objectives declined in impor-
tance and fell more for women than men in terms of their
overall significance to the individual.
12 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS
concerned with personal success and family,
although men still placed more weight on finan-
cial success.
Alterations in identity are reflected in con-
tinued changes to the parameters of the
Slutsky equation. Both income and substitu-
tion elasticities decreased substantially in (ab-
solute) magnitude for all education groups of
women in the 1980s and again in the 1990s.34
The decrease in the income elasticity contin-
ued its twentieth-century trend downward.
The decrease in the substitution effect sharply
reversed its trend upward in the first two-
thirds of the century.35 By the 1990s income
and substitution effects of the labor supply
function, while still somewhat greater for
women than for men, were more similar than
estimated values at any other time.
Changes in the income and substitution ef-
fects reflect a fundamental transformation in
how women view their employment. Rather
than jobs, most see employment as part of a
long-term career. Most perceive their work as a
fundamental aspect of their satisfaction in life
and view their place of work as an integral part
of their social world. They have added identity
to their decision about whether to work or not to
work given changes in wages and incomes. As
a consequence women have become stickier in
their labor force attachment. Leaving the work-
place involves a loss in identity for a woman,
just as being unemployed or retired has com-
monly involved a loss of prestige and social
belonging to most men. Income and substitution
effects changed for women in low- and high-
income families alike and for those at almost
all levels of schooling. Ethnographic research
corroborates the empirical finding that low-in-
come and even poor women increased their at-
34
According to Blau and Kahn (2005), married women’s
own wage elasticity (with respect to hours of work) fell by
50 to 56 percent from 1980 to 2000 and the elasticity of
hours with respect to husband’s income fell by 38 to 47
percent. Similar results are found for participation. Their
results are robust to alternative specifications and correc-
tions for various types of selectivity bias.
35
The unit of observation in Blau and Kahn (2005) is the
individual, whereas it is the city in the eight studies for the
pre-1970s period. The Blau and Kahn finding of a reduction
(in absolute value) in the two elasticities within the 1980 to
2000 period allows one to make inferences about the longer
period.
MAY 2006
Financial success
20
Male minus female weight
10
Recognition
by colleagues
0
Family
-10
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Freshman year
FIGURE 6. PERSONAL SATISFACTION FACTORS FOR COLLEGE
FRESHMEN, DIFFERENCES BY SEX: 1966 TO 2000
Notes: Individuals surveyed were freshmen. The data given
are weighted to produce a nationally representative college
freshmen average. An objective, goal, or value is given full
weight (100) if the individual listed it as “essential” or “very
important” and no weight (0) otherwise. Individuals could
choose any number of factors from the 12 to 19 possible
objectives, goals, or values listed on the survey in each year.
Sources: Astin et al. (2002).
tachment to the workplace as a source of personal
identity.36
Relative Earnings and Occupations.—The
result of expanded horizons and altered identi-
ties was that younger cohorts of women were
considerably better prepared to enter the labor
market and were determined to have careers.
These changes are reflected in their occupations
and earnings relative to those of men. The earn-
ings of women relative to those of men began to
increase around 1980 after remaining flat since
the 1950s (Figure 7).37 Much of the increase
was due to women’s greater job experience and
to their more market-relevant skills as reflected
36
Typical of the findings in the ethnographic literature is
Lillian B. Rubin (1994) who did a similar study two decades
before. “Universally, the women I interviewed work be-
cause they must. Almost as often they find a level of
self-fulfillment and satisfaction on the job that they’re loath
to give up” (p. 81). With regard to changes in their sense of
fairness in the labor market, Rubin writes: “Now all the
women, even those who greeted the idea with reservations
two decades ago, endorse the principle of equal pay without
equivocation” (p. 83). With greater attachment to their
positions, they demanded to be treated as the equals of men.
37
The ratio of female to male hourly earnings is higher
than that for full-time, year-round workers because men
work more hours even among those working full-time.
VOL. 96 NO. 2 RICHARD T. ELY LECTURE
80
75
70
65
60
55
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
FIGURE 7. WOMEN’S EARNINGS AS A PERCENTAGE
MEN’S EARNINGS: 1960 TO 2003
Notes: Based on median earnings of full-time, year-round
workers 15 years old and over as of March of the following
year. Before 1989, earnings are for civilian workers only.
Source: http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/histinc/p40.
html.
in the increased return to experience.38 Occupa-
tions shifted, not surprisingly, from those that
had been considered traditional ones for
women, such as teacher, nurse, librarian, and
social worker, to a varied group of professions
including lawyer, physician, professor, and
manager (Figure 8). But it has also been noted
that even within cohorts the earnings of women
increased relative to those of men, suggesting
that change may have diffused to those in their
middle age and was caused, at least in part, by
changes within the labor market or imposed on
it by antidiscrimination legislation.
B. What Caused the Revolution?
Mincer was right. In the 1950s and 1960s,
labor demand increased greatly, and for women
it raced across a relatively stable and rather
elastic labor supply function. But many of the
women in Phase III were caught by surprise.
They had incorrectly anticipated their future
labor force participation. They were often
38
O’Neill and Polachek (1993) decompose the increase
in relative earnings for women and find that increased
returns to experience account for a larger fraction of the
difference than the increase in work experience. They do
not, however, explain the increase in returns to experience
in terms of better preparation for the labor market or better
treatment by the labor market.
13
0.75
Teachers, nurses, librarians, social workers, etc.
0.60
0.45
0.30
Doctors, lawyers, professors, managers, etc.
0.15
0.00
2005 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
FIGURE 8. OCCUPATIONS OF COLLEGE GRADUATE WOMEN,
OF
30 TO 34 YEARS OLD: 1940 TO 2000
Notes: The occupations in the two groups are: grade school
teachers, nurses, librarians, social or religious workers, sec-
retaries and other clerical workers; and doctors, lawyers,
professors, managers, and scientists.
Sources: Integrated Public Use Micro-data Sample of the
U.S. Federal Population Census, 1940 to 1960; March Cur-
rent Population Survey 1970 to 2000.
trapped in positions that involved little advance-
ment. College women had majored in fields that
were more consumption than investment ori-
ented. Few had continued to professional and
graduate schools.
But the next generation observed the large
increase in participation and in full-time work
of their immediate predecessors. They extrapo-
lated on that basis to form more accurate expec-
tations for their futures. In doing so they were
better prepared to invest in human capital. As
high school students they took more college
preparation courses and their aptitude test
scores rose relative to those of boys. They
greatly increased their college attendance and
graduation rates. At college they altered their
college majors toward those that were more
valuable in the labor market and less valuable at
home, and they continued with post-graduate
education to a far greater extent than did previ-
ous generations.
The age at first marriage for college women
increased with cohorts born around 1950. Mar-
riage delay enabled women to take formal edu-
cation more seriously and led to changes in their
relationship to work. The period divorce rate
began to increase in the 1960s. The combination
of the increase in divorce and the later age at
first marriage for all women meant that the
14 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS
0.85
Fraction of time married during ages:
0.8
25 to 40 years old
25 to 45 years old
25 to 50 years old
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960
Birth Year
FIGURE 9. FRACTION OF YEARS SPENT MARRIED
FOR ALL WOMEN
Notes: All education groups and all races are included.
“Married” includes all who were listed as married, indepen-
dent of whether the spouse was present. The data begin with
age 25 years and end with age 50. A missing cell (25-year
olds in 1961) was created by extrapolation.
Source: March Current Population Survey (CPS), 1962 to
2004.
fraction of their lives they would spend married
plummeted and economic independence be-
came more valuable (Figure 9). These changes
altered the identity of women and shifted it from
a family- and household-centered world to a
wider one that was more career oriented.
One of the reasons for the increase in the age
at first marriage was the introduction of the
contraceptive “pill.” Although the pill was ap-
proved by the Food and Drug Administration in
1960 and quickly diffused among married
women, young single women found it harder to
obtain due to restrictive state laws. Legal
changes at the state level, such as mature minor
decisions and the increased age of majority that
mainly occurred from the late 1960s and early
1970s, enabled young women to obtain the pill,
even though the rulings and legal changes were
not normally intended for that purpose.39 As use
of the pill diffused through the young, unmar-
ried population, a potent reason for early mar-
riage disappeared. With a larger group of single
individuals, others could afford to wait and a
multiplier effect added to the increased age at
39
In fact, many states increased their age of majority
after passage of the Twenty-Sixth Amendment to the U.S.
Constitution in July 1971 that lowered the minimum voting
age to 18.
MAY 2006
first marriage.40 As the age at first marriage
increased, women could be more serious in col-
lege, plan for an independent future, and form
their identities before marriage and family.41
IV. Has the Quiet Revolution Stalled?
A. Is There a “Natural Rate” of Female
Labor Force Participation?
Female labor force participation rates and the
fraction working full time are no longer soaring,
1965 let alone rising. Participation rates for women of
almost all ages, education levels, and marital
statuses seem to have leveled off since around
1990 after rising nonstop for at least the last
century (Figure 1). The participation rate of
married college graduate women in their thir-
ties, for example, has hovered around 76 per-
cent since 1990. For high school graduate
married women in their thirties, a rate of
about 72 percent has been sustained for the
past 15 years.42 Thus it appears that a plateau
in female labor force participation was
reached a decade and a half ago.43 The par-
ticipation rate for women with infants may
even have declined. These facts have led
many to wonder if some type of “natural rate”
of female labor force participation has been
reached. Since participation rates are bounded
40
Goldin and Katz (2002) describe the model that gen-
erates an increased age at first marriage with the diffusion
beginning in the pill and provide evidence concerning the
timing of the pill’s spread among young women.
41
Why divorce increased is a more contentious issue.
Some thought the increase was due to the legal changes
beginning in the 1960s that relaxed divorce statutes in
various states and allowed unilateral divorce. Others pos-
ited, along the lines of the Coase Theorem, that the legal
changes should not have mattered. The empirical literature
shows that the immediate effect of the laws was to increase
divorce but that after a decade divorce rates revert to their
initial levels. For a summary of the debate and an empirical
analysis of the short and long-run effects of legal changes,
see Justin Wolfers (2003).
42
The data given are from the March Current Population
Survey (CPS). Similar data for women in their forties show
slightly higher rates.
43
The plateau in most labor force participation series
began in the early- to mid-1990s during a weak economy,
but was sustained during the boom economy of the late
1990s. Therefore, it would not appear that the macro-
economy was solely to blame. The dip in participation in the
early 2000s, however, was due to the low employment
growth.
VOL. 96 NO. 2
0.8
Labor Force Participation
0.7
Labor force participation rate
0.6
0.5
Fraction with Children < 6 Years
0.4
1960 1970 1980
FIGURE 10. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND FRACTION
WITH YOUNG CHILDREN FOR 33- TO 37-YEAR-OLD
MARRIED, COLLEGE GRADUATE WOMEN: 1962 TO 2004
Notes: Three-year centered moving averages are shown.
“Married” means currently married although not necessarily
with a spouse present. “College graduate” means greater
than or equal to four years of college.
Source: March Current Population Survey (CPS), 1962 to
2004.
above by one, the question is really whether the
natural rate is lower than some had thought it
would be.
Whether or not the data support a natural
rate hypothesis depends on the particular age
group examined. For women in their thirties,
a natural rate does not appear to have been
reached, even though a leveling off has oc-
curred. The reason the evidence does not
yet support the natural rate notion concerns
changed demographics.
With a later age at marriage and a delay of
childbearing, women in their thirties now have a
higher probability of having a child under the
age of six than they did 25 years ago and about
an equal probability as in the mid-1960s (Figure
10).44 Despite this greater child burden, partic-
ipation rates for women in their thirties are
higher today than in the early 1980s and far
higher than in the 1960s. During the past two
decades, the participation rate of this group has
remained relatively stable and substantial. Thus,
rather than peaking or declining, their partici-
pation rates appear to be keeping up, given the
changed demographics.
The participation rate for 33- to 37-year-old
44
The number of children per mother was greater in the
past even though the fraction of mothers with children under
the age of six years is greater today.
RICHARD T. ELY LECTURE 15
0.65
married college women, for example, was 77
percent in 1999, while the fraction with children
under the age of six was 61 percent (Figure
Fraction with children < 6 years
0.6
10).45 In 1965 just 40 percent were in the labor
force and 57 percent had children under six
0.55 years of age. Participation rates increased from
1965 to 1999 by 37 percentage points while the
child burden actually increased by four percent-
0.5
age points.46 From 1980 to 1999, participation
rates rose 11 percentage points while the kid
0.45
burden rose 12 percentage points, and from
1990 2000
1990 to 1999 both participation rates rose and
the kid burden rose by about 2.5 percentage
points.
The notion that a natural rate has been
reached does not appear to be supported for
these “thirty-something-year-olds.” Rather,
these women appear to be committed to the
labor force probably because they were in the
labor force far longer before they married, in-
vested more in formal and informal training, and
shaped their identities before having children.
What about women in their twenties? Once
again, consider the female college graduate, this
time for all marital statuses. Labor force partic-
ipation rates for women 25 to 29 years old have
been very high, in the 90-percent range through
the 1990s, but these rates, too, have been very
flat (and have, like others, declined a bit through
the downturn of the early 2000s). As opposed to
the group in their thirties and early forties, these
women have not had any increase in their child
burden. In fact, the fraction with young children
declined substantially to the mid-1980s and has
been flat ever since. Thus both their participa-
tion rates and their child burdens remained
fairly constant since 1990, at the latest. If a
natural rate has been reached, then this group
might provide confirmation. But in the 1990s,
participation rates of women in their late twen-
ties were not much different from those of com-
parable men.47
45
The rate was 74 percent in 2004. But in all cases,
including that of men, participation rates from 2000 to 2004
were depressed relative to previous rates and reflect the
sluggish labor market in general rather than anything spe-
cific to women. Because of the macroeconomic slowdown,
I use 1999 data.
46
“Child burden” measures whether there is a child
under six years old, not the number of children.
47
Further confirmation is provided by Heather Boushey
(2005) who finds that the child penalty—the lower labor
force participation of women with young children—
16 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS
B. Opting Out of the Revolution?
Back in the 1950s, when Americans were
concerned that women were dropping out of
college to get married, many questioned
whether women should attend college at all.
Recently, a similar issue has been raised.48
Even women who have graduated from the best
universities and finest professional schools are
reported to be fleeing the labor force for the
comforts of home and family and the identities
of mother and wife. Rather than being “pushed
out” or “forced out,” they have, according to
some, made a conscious decision in their late
twenties and early thirties to “opt out.”49 Does
the current evidence support the notion that the
quiet revolution is unraveling?
To evaluate the opt-out assertion requires
longitudinal or retrospective data of a sufficient
timespan. The individual who opts out today
may return to the workplace tomorrow, and the
woman who left the corporate law office yes-
terday may wind up on the city council in a
year. Young women who see romance and com-
fort in being “stay-at-home moms” may change
their minds long before they receive their diplo-
mas. The requisite data must also include a
large number of female and male graduates
from top-ranked institutions of higher educa-
tion, since the opt-out assertion generally per-
tains to women who, by virtue of their
undergraduate institution, are thought to have
opted for careers. A reasonable evaluation also
requires comparisons with similar men.
The College and Beyond dataset of the
Andrew W. Mellon Foundation meets these
stringent criteria. The dataset consists of
administrative data for individuals from 34 “se-
lective” universities and colleges and the results
decreased from 1984 to 2004, controlling for year effects
and demographics.
48
A moment of déjà vu can be found in a review
by Caroline Hill in the Journal of Political Economy of
Charlotte Perkins Gilman’s book. Hill remarked: “The con-
servative has had his innings since about 1900 ... because a
few highly educated women have abandoned their specialties
for their families, they are used as illustrations of the futility of
opening graduate schools to women” (Hill, 1904, p. 410).
49
See the New York Times magazine section article by
Lisa Belkin (2003) on what she termed the “opt out revo-
lution” and the firestorm that ensued in newspapers across
the nation.
MAY 2006
of a survey.50 The entering class of 1976 is
examined here because it is one of the latest
college cohorts for which information exists to
their mid-life. The survey was completed in
1995–96 when the respondents were around 37
years old, by which time most of the women
had completed their childbearing years, al-
though career and other demographic transi-
tions would continue.51 College and Beyond
contains the largest sample of college graduates
from selective institutions that currently exists
with data relevant to the issues at hand.52 Using
these data, I explore out-of-work spells among
college graduate women and how these spells
were affected by family, further education, and
occupation.53 Only noneducation related spells
are considered and only spells of more than six
months were recorded in the survey.
In the more than 15 years since receiving
their baccalaureate degrees, the median woman
who graduated from one of the 34 selective
colleges was never out of work for more than
six months at a time, and that was true even
among those who had at least one child (Table
1).54 The sum of all out-of-work spells was just
1.55 years; that for women with children was
2.08 years and that for women without children
was 0.41 years, or just 5 months. Among all
women, less than one-quarter had out-of-work
spells totaling two years or more, and among
50
Because of confidentiality requirements, the College
and Beyond dataset is restricted. I thank the Andrew W.
Mellon Foundation for making the data available to me for
this and other research. For more information on the College
and Beyond survey, see the data appendix in William G.
Bowen and Derek Bok (1998).
51
The cumulative probability of a college graduate
woman born from 1955 to 1959 having any birth after age
37 was 0.136. The total number of births this group would
have to age 44 was 1.424. The probability of a first birth
after age 37 for this group was 0.03 (Goldin, et al., unpub-
lished, 2006).
52
Lawrence F. Katz, Bryce Ward, and I are currently
compiling similar data for various entering classes begin-
ning in 1969 from one highly selective college. These data
will be more current than are those in the College and
Beyond and will contain better demographic and occupa-
tional data.
53
The College and Beyond data do not include informa-
tion on the birth dates of the children. Only data on the
number of children were collected, although the no-work
spell information includes whether the spell was for “family
reasons.”
54
Because I include education spells for which the re-
spondent also gave another reason (e.g., family responsibil-
ities), out-of-work spells are likely to be a bit overstated.
VOL. 96 NO. 2 RICHARD T. ELY LECTURE 17

TABLE 1—TOTAL OUT-OF-WORK SPELLS AMONG GRADUATES OF SELECTIVE COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES:
ENTERING CLASS OF 1976

Women Men
Total out-of-work spells With Without Prof. or grad.
(excluding for education) All children children degree All
0 0.585 0.501 0.765 0.705 0.859
0.5 years 0.0351 0.0366 0.0315 0.0340 0.0222
⬎ 0.5 to 1 years 0.0745 0.0703 0.0837 0.0738 0.0513
⬎ 1 to 2 years 0.0713 0.0751 0.0629 0.0557 0.0360
⬎ 2 to 5 years 0.109 0.139 0.0446 0.0759 0.0228
⬎ 5 to 15.5 years 0.125 0.178 0.0125 0.0557 0.0084
Mean years not working 1.55 2.08 0.410 0.808 0.244
Number of observations 10,663 7,241 3,308 2,440 10,890

Notes: Sample includes only those who received a bachelor’s degree from 1978 to 1985. Of those women with a graduation
date listed in the survey, 98 percent received their degrees between 1978 and 1985 and 94 percent did between 1979 and 1981.
Out-of-work spells are defined in the survey as those greater than six months each. The possible reasons for no work include:
family responsibilities, layoffs, retirement, could not find a suitable position, did not want to work, and personal illness. Spells
that were solely for educational reasons are excluded here. Professional or graduate degrees include doctorates (e.g., Ph.D.),
professional degrees (e.g., M.D., D.S.S., D.V.M.), and law degrees but not master’s degrees (e.g., M.A., M.B.A.). “Children”
is the number listed by the respondent and may include adopted or step-children (or be missing).
Source: Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, College and Beyond dataset, entering class of 1976.

women with children the figure is less than
one-third. For most women, the sum of all out-
of-work spells during their first 15 years after
graduation was remarkably short. The spells
were, to be sure, larger than those for compa-
rable men who logged 0.244 years (or 3
months) total in out-of-work spells but they
were, nonetheless, a small fraction of their years
since graduation. Of the fraction of the time
since graduation not spent to advance their ed-
ucation, these women were away from work
just 11 percent of the time, and only 7 percent
were away from work for more than 50 percent
of the time.
In a regression context, children were the
most important factor related to out-of-work
spells for women and a clear nonlinearity exists
in the impact of successive numbers of children.
One child increased total time not at work by
just 0.36 years on average, two children by 1.41
years, and three (or more) by 2.84 years.55 The
opposite effect holds for men. The first child
decreased out-of-work spells by 0.14 years, the
next by 0.18 years, and beyond that by 0.21
years. Women with advanced degrees had far
55
Coefficients on the number of children are from a
regression including marital status, race, and the various
professional and graduate degrees. Controls for college se-
lectivity and the individual’s SAT scores did not affect the
estimates.
briefer spells than other women and the effect
holds even for those with children. In fact, al-
most all of the difference between the out-of-
work spells of those with advanced degrees
and others is due to the shorter duration of
their spells for having children. Those with
medical degrees had the shortest no-work
spells; Ph.D.s were next and then lawyers.
African American women had the briefest
spells of all.56
Evidence from the Current Population Sur-
veys (CPS) and the College and Beyond dataset
does not indicate that college graduate women,
particularly those from selective institutions,
have opted out in significant numbers and that
the phenomenon has increased.57 But because
data, to be meaningful, must reveal the full
longitudinal view from late in life, the path of
56
Attendance at a woman’s college decreased out-of-
work spells but only because women’s college graduates in
this sample had fewer children, due in part because a lower
percentage married.
57
The opt-out thesis can also be evaluated with regard to
whether women in the 1976 entry class, who earned ad-
vanced degrees, were in occupations in 1995 that were
directly degree-related. The vast majority of women who
trained to be medical doctors were employed as physicians
when in their late thirties; the same is true for women who
received law degrees and lawyers. Women in these gradu-
ating classes stuck with their specialties to about the same
degree as did comparable men.
18 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS
the most recent generations cannot yet be
judged. There are, however, some hints. Evi-
dence on aspirations from the Astin freshman
survey does not suggest major changes in the
factors that young people expect will yield sat-
isfaction in life. Data on the age at first birth
from The National Vital Statistics System
shows a continued increase among college grad-
uate women and a slight, but noticeable, in-
crease in the number of births to those with four
or more years of college. As for the validity of
the opt-out theory, for younger cohorts, the jury
must remain out for at least another decade.
V. Three Evolutions, the Quiet Revolution, and
Beyond: A Summary
What forces propelled the three evolutions in
the lives of adult women and brought about the
quiet revolution? At the risk of simplifying a
complicated social and economic transforma-
tion that unleashed the most momentous change
in the labor force of the twentieth century, I will
summarize my argument.
I separated the approximately first three-
quarters of the twentieth century into three
phases of evolutionary change. During Phase I,
few adult and married women were in the labor
force. The income elasticity of female labor
supply was large (and negative) and the substi-
tution elasticity of labor supply was small. Vir-
tually all change in participation had to come
from shifts in labor supply. Until the two elas-
ticities of the Slutsky equation changed, eco-
nomic growth and the consequent increase
in real earnings for women would not elicit
an increase in the participation of adult and
married women. But change they did during
Phase II.
The income elasticity decreased considerably
in (absolute) magnitude with the arrival of nice
jobs that reduced the stigma surrounding mar-
ried women’s work outside the home and with
the increase in high school attendance and grad-
uation rates that made nice work a possibility
for many young women. The substitution effect
increased substantially with the reduction in
weekly hours (and days) of work, the initial
stirrings of part-time work, and the rapid diffu-
sion of the electric household. Also of some
importance, although often exaggerated, was
the impact of World War II in demonstrating, to
women and their families, that the workplace
MAY 2006
could be respectable and showing employers
that women were profitable to employ.58
By Phase III female labor supply was rather
elastic. The large increase in aggregate demand,
especially in the 1960s, and the accommodation
of married women with the expansion of part-
time work, led to an enormous increase in mar-
ried women’s labor force participation. Put
succinctly, demand raced over an elastic labor
supply function. But these changes could hardly
have been accurately predicted by the partici-
pants. Most— even those with college de-
grees— had not made plans to be in the
workforce for an extended period. Work was a
job to “fall back on,” not a career. The skill set
of these women was not commensurate with
their eventual life cycle labor force participa-
tion. But all of that would also change.
Young women growing up in the 1960s could
see that adult and married women had partici-
pation rates that were rapidly increasing. The
young began to extrapolate to their own lives,
possibly influenced by the resurgence of femi-
nism that encouraged them to think indepen-
dently. Two other important changes took
place. One was the contraceptive innovation
known as the pill. Aided by changes in state
laws, the pill diffused to young, single women.
The other was the enormous increase in divorce
in the 1960s. The advent of the pill for young
women allowed them to plan their careers be-
fore planning for their families and to be taken
more seriously by their employers and advisors.
A consequence of the pill was that the age at
first marriage increased. Together with the rise
in divorce, a far smaller fraction of a woman’s
life would be spent married. Young women in
the 1960s and 1970s were better able to predict
what their future lifetime employment would
be. As a result they increased their investments
in formal schooling, majored in career-oriented
subjects, and continued on to professional and
graduate schools in far greater numbers. They
58
Goldin (1991a) demonstrates the relatively short-lived
nature of the increase in women’s employment in the 1940s.
Daron Acemoglu et al. (2004) identify that female labor
supply did shift because of wartime work. Using a similar
identification strategy, Raquel Fernández, Alessandra Fogli,
and Olivetti (2004) find that wartime work not only in-
creased female labor supply, but had a multiplier effect
through a change in work preferences. The sons of working
women who lived through the early 1940s were more will-
ing to have a working wife.
VOL. 96 NO. 2 RICHARD T. ELY LECTURE
had longer horizons than did previous genera-
tions and an altered identity that placed career
ahead, or on equal footing, with marriage.
Wives were less often secondary workers, the
flotsam and jetsam of the labor market. The
income and substitution effects of labor supply
changed once again, mainly in the 1980s and
1990s. No longer was women’s labor supply
highly elastic. It was influenced even less than
before by husband’s earnings. The earnings of
women rose relative to those of men; occupa-
tions changed from more traditional ones to
those that had been considered nontraditional.
The quiet revolution was set in motion by
the generation born in the late 1940s, but a
noisier revolution, led by some in the older
cohorts, preceded it.59 As opposed to the
noisy revolution, the quiet revolution was ac-
complished by many who were unaware that
they were part of a grand transformation.
They were the unwitting foot soldiers of an
upheaval that would alter women’s employ-
ment, education, and family. But was Ely
correct in asserting that “Revolutions do not
go backward”? There is little evidence that
this one has, at least for now.
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