YAURI

Precipitación
Máxima en 24 horas (mm)
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
1997 35.10 20.70 30.50 8.90 3.10 0.00 1.96 8.50 21.30 15.40 21.10 30.50
1998 13.90 18.50 36.80 14.19 0.00 2.20 0.00 3.80 9.10 33.00 23.50 20.20
1999 29.60 17.00 35.00 11.40 3.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.30 12.70 5.80 21.30
2000 22.70 17.70 29.20 7.30 1.90 3.20 2.00 3.90 5.20 30.30 24.20 18.20
2001 26.60 24.80 16.20 8.80 20.80 0.00 4.60 2.50 4.20 9.80 7.00 11.20
2002 17.20 24.50 18.00 15.20 15.00 5.20 5.00 2.40 8.20 24.00 21.10 16.80
2003 12.90 18.10 31.90 18.50 6.50 2.30 0.01 5.60 14.20 5.30 6.00 23.30
2004 24.20 25.70 11.30 14.20 0.00 1.40 1.60 11.60 7.80 10.40 13.80 17.00
2005 10.80 29.40 23.80 10.10 0.00 0.00 2.60 7.20 1.20 9.50 23.70 26.20
2006 43.50 18.80 11.90 10.90 1.00 8.00 0.01 2.90 3.50 9.20 21.30 40.90
2007 20.60 15.40 26.70 19.70 9.50 1.20 2.40 0.00 9.20 19.80 22.90 19.60
2008 15.60 16.30 9.90 4.90 3.00 1.50 0.00 2.40 1.60 12.00 19.10 25.00
2009 18.10 21.80 15.20 7.00 2.20 0.00 1.20 0.01 3.20 13.60 22.80 15.90
2010 41.00 24.80 20.60 8.70 5.90 1.20 0.00 0.80 5.80 4.50 15.40 14.90
2011 16.90 18.90 18.60 13.00 7.80 3.60 2.80 1.20 13.40 10.60 16.60 27.30
2012 20.30 21.50 20.80 11.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 6.00 5.60 22.10 21.80
2013 23.20 15.40 17.80 11.00 2.80 5.20 1.20 2.80 3.20 17.00 22.20 27.70
2014 17.00 26.90 11.60 15.50 3.50 0.00 1.80 3.50 3.50 31.80 6.90 48.60
2015 29.90 26.00 15.30 29.70 8.40 0.50 0.80 6.80 7.10 7.40 8.20 35.50
2016 43.90 23.40 22.10 43.90 1.70 8.90 0.80 3.10 2.90 12.20 7.90 31.10
2017 29.70 19.50 26.30 21.00 4.60 0.10 3.10 0.00 3.60 25.20 15.40 25.00
2018 25.00 30.90 26.10 7.00 0.80 3.80 11.20 29.00 2.00 25.80 22.20 16.30
PROM. 24.44 21.64 21.62 14.19 4.65 2.20 1.96 4.51 6.80 15.69 16.78 24.29

HUAYHUAHUASI
Precipitación Máxima en 24 horas (mm)
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
1997 35.1 20.7 30.5 8.9 3.1 0 2.75333 8.5 21.3 15.4 21.1 30.5
1998 13.9 18.5 36.8 10.7619 0 2.2 0 3.8 9.1 33 23.5 20.2
1999 29.6 17 35 11.4 3.8 0 0 0 13.3 12.7 5.8 21.3
2000 22.7 17.7 29.2 7.3 1.9 3.2 2 3.9 5.2 30.3 24.2 18.2
2001 26.6 24.8 16.2 8.8 20.8 0 4.6 2.5 4.2 9.8 7 11.2
2002 17.2 24.5 18 15.2 15 5.2 5 2.4 8.2 24 21.1 16.8
2003 12.9 18.1 31.9 18.5 6.5 2.3 0.01 5.6 14.2 5.3 6 23.3
2004 24.2 25.7 11.3 14.2 0 1.4 1.6 11.6 7.8 10.4 13.8 17
2005 10.8 29.4 23.8 10.1 0 0 2.6 7.2 1.2 9.5 23.7 26.2
2006 43.5 18.8 11.9 10.9 1 8 0.01 2.9 3.5 9.2 21.3 40.9
2007 20.6 15.4 26.7 19.7 9.5 1.2 2.4 0 9.2 19.8 22.9 19.6
2008 15.6 16.3 9.9 4.9 3 1.5 0 2.4 1.6 12 19.1 25
2009 18.1 21.8 15.2 7 2.2 0 1.2 0.01 3.2 13.6 22.8 15.9
2010 41 24.8 20.6 8.7 5.9 1.2 0 0.8 5.8 4.5 15.4 14.9
2011 16.9 18.9 18.6 13 7.8 3.6 2.8 1.2 13.4 10.6 16.6 27.3
2012 20.3 21.5 20.8 11.2 0 0 0 1.1 6 5.6 22.1 21.8
2013 23.2 15.4 17.8 11 2.8 5.2 1.2 2.8 3.2 17 22.2 27.7
2014 20.2 27.6 19.2 13.2 1.2 0 3.2 7.9 7.3 25.2 6.8 31.6
2015 32.3 15.6 22.3 12.6 0 1.6 2.4 4 7.3 5.7 8.2 27
2016 22.3 18.6 7.8 4.6 1.8 0 17.6 0 4.2 18.4 17.7 14
2017 30.8 15.4 22.8 7.8 4.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018 25 30.9 26.1 7 0.8 3.8 11.2 29 2 25.8 22.2 16.3
PROM. 23.76 20.79 21.47 10.76 4.17 1.84 2.75 4.44 6.87 14.45 16.52 21.21
 Precipitación
Máxima en 24 horas (mm)
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC
1993 35.1 20.7 30.5 8.9 3.1 0 2.16286 8.5 21.3 15.4 21.1 30.5
1994 13.9 18.5 36.8 12.7857 0 2.2 0 3.8 9.1 33 23.5 20.2
1995 29.6 17 35 11.4 3.8 0 0 0 13.3 12.7 5.8 21.3
1996 22.7 17.7 29.2 7.3 1.9 3.2 2 3.9 5.2 30.3 24.2 18.2
1997 26.6 24.8 16.2 8.8 20.8 0 4.6 2.5 4.2 9.8 7 11.2
1998 17.2 24.5 18 15.2 15 5.2 5 2.4 8.2 24 21.1 16.8
1999 12.9 18.1 31.9 18.5 6.5 2.3 0.01 5.6 14.2 5.3 6 23.3
2000 24.2 25.7 11.3 14.2 0 1.4 1.6 11.6 7.8 10.4 13.8 17
2001 10.8 29.4 23.8 10.1 0 0 2.6 7.2 1.2 9.5 23.7 26.2
2002 43.5 18.8 11.9 10.9 1 8 0.01 2.9 3.5 9.2 21.3 40.9
2003 20.6 15.4 26.7 19.7 9.5 1.2 2.4 0 9.2 19.8 22.9 19.6
2004 15.6 16.3 9.9 4.9 3 1.5 0 2.4 1.6 12 19.1 25
2005 18.1 21.8 15.2 7 2.2 0 1.2 0.01 3.2 13.6 22.8 15.9
2006 41 24.8 20.6 8.7 5.9 1.2 0 0.8 5.8 4.5 15.4 14.9
2007 16.9 18.9 18.6 13 7.8 3.6 2.8 1.2 13.4 10.6 16.6 27.3
2008 20.3 21.5 20.8 11.2 0 0 0 1.1 6 5.6 22.1 21.8
2009 23.2 15.4 17.8 11 2.8 5.2 1.2 2.8 3.2 17 22.2 27.7
2010 17 26.9 11.6 15.5 3.5 0 1.8 3.5 3.5 31.8 6.9 48.6
2011 29.9 26 15.3 29.7 8.4 0.5 0 4.5 4.8 8.2 10.2 32.4
2012 21.6 39.3 5.6 14.5 0 0.8 5.9 3.1 2.9 12.2 7.9 31.1
2013 29.7 19.5 26.3 21 4.6 0.1 3.1 0 3.6 25.2 15.4 25
2014 25 30.9 26.1 7 0.8 3.8 11.2 29 2 25.8 22.2 16.3
PROM. 23.43 22.36 20.87 12.79 4.57 1.83 2.16 4.40 6.69 15.72 16.87 24.15
 PRECIPITACIONES MENSUALES

Estación: SANTA ROSA Latitud: 14° 37' 25.5'' Dpto: Puno

Longitud:70° 47' 11.5'' ProvinciaMelgar
Altitud: 3986 msnm Distrito: Santa Rosa
Precipitación
Mensuales (mm)
AÑO Ene. Feb. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Set. Oct. Nov. Dic.
2009 149.60 292.60 116.60 157.50 172.00 126.80 43.20 20.40 88.20 69.30 59.20 203.10
2010 32.40 136.30 283.40 191.70 186.60 69.40 38.90 31.30 76.80 18.50 20.60 119.60
2011 201.70 76.10 133.30 117.10 71.20 14.20 62.80 24.10 62.80 68.10 185.80 117.50
2012 56.80 105.70 98.80 181.20 119.50 28.70 92.40 7.40 39.10 125.40 146.80 105.60
2013 119.60 108.50 146.60 175.50 140.40 121.10 37.10 11.30 30.60 148.70 103.60 112.00
2014 93.00 35.10 135.60 157.80 105.10 63.80 57.30 21.70 69.20 158.10 111.30 140.80
2015 121.10 206.40 278.40 141.80 104.20 75.10 8.40 11.70 40.30 128.40 116.40 202.10
2016 153.30 172.00 250.60 130.50 55.80 110.30 25.10 14.10 13.30 118.50 172.70 112.50
2017 149.50 47.20 190.40 162.50 120.50 90.70 52.30 56.00 22.30 155.80 303.30 90.40
2018 121.50 303.30 163.00 167.40 63.90 64.90 74.30 44.00 49.70 164.50 234.90 47.60

Estación: YAURI Latitud: 14° 49' 1'' Dpto: Cusco

Longitud:71° 25' 1'' ProvinciaEspinar
Altitud: 3927 msnm Distrito: Espinar
Precipitación
Máxima en 24 horas (mm)
AÑO Ene. Feb. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Set. Oct. Nov. Dic.
2010 26.80 26.00 25.70 25.30 24.90 25.10 24.50 25.10 26.30 26.00 26.60 25.80
2011 25.90 25.30 24.80 24.30 25.20 25.00 24.50 24.80 25.60 26.10 26.70 25.80
2012 24.70 24.40 25.20 25.60 25.70 25.20 25.80 26.60 27.30 28.20 27.50 27.70
2013 27.10 26.70 26.80 26.80 25.70 25.70 25.40 26.70 27.70 27.20 26.50 26.80
2014 26.80 26.60 26.90 27.10 26.00 25.80 25.00 26.60 27.40 27.50 27.50 26.50
2015 27.30 26.80 26.40 26.80 26.40 25.20 25.40 25.70 26.40 26.90 27.40 27.30
2016 26.90 26.90 26.80 26.60 26.30 25.80 25.60 26.30 26.90 27.00 26.50 26.50
2017 26.40 25.80 26.20 26.90 26.20 26.40 26.00 26.40 27.70 27.70 27.60 26.50
2018 26.20 26.70 26.20 26.80 26.90 25.70 25.50 25.80 25.80 26.20 25.60 26.20
 ANALISIS DE CONSISTENCIA
Metodo curvas doble acumuladas
1) Datos: Estaciones anuales
2) PPA: promedio de las estaciones
3) Valores acumulados: estaciones y PPA
4) Graficar: Estaciones VS PPA
5) Si r2>0.99 okey pero si r2<0.99 saco la estacion
6) Realizo la correcciòn de la estaciòn inconsistente
7) Vuelvo a plotear Estaciones Vs PPA

HAYHUA SANTA Prom. Prom.

HAYHUA SANTA Acumula
AÑO YAURI HUASI ROSA Parcial YAURI HUASI ROSA do
1997 16.42 16.49 16.44 16.45 291.02 273.24 285.70 283.32
1998 14.60 14.31 14.48 14.46 274.60 256.75 269.26 266.87
1999 12.49 12.49 12.49 12.49 260.00 242.44 254.78 252.41
2000 13.82 13.82 13.82 13.82 247.51 229.94 242.29 239.91
2001 11.38 11.38 11.38 11.38 233.69 216.13 228.47 226.10
2002 14.38 14.38 14.38 14.38 222.32 204.75 217.09 214.72
2003 12.05 12.05 12.05 12.05 207.94 190.37 202.71 200.34
2004 11.58 11.58 11.58 11.58 195.89 178.32 190.66 188.29
2005 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 184.30 166.73 179.08 176.70
2006 14.33 14.33 14.33 14.33 172.26 154.69 167.04 164.66
2007 13.92 13.92 13.92 13.92 157.93 140.37 152.71 150.34
2008 9.27 9.27 9.27 9.27 144.02 126.45 138.79 136.42
2009 10.08 10.08 10.08 10.08 134.74 117.18 129.52 127.15
2010 11.97 11.97 11.97 11.97 124.66 107.09 119.43 117.06
2011 12.56 12.56 12.56 12.56 112.69 95.13 107.47 105.09
2012 10.87 10.87 10.87 10.87 100.13 82.57 94.91 92.54
2013 12.46 12.46 12.46 12.46 89.27 71.70 84.04 81.67
2014 14.22 13.62 14.22 14.02 76.81 59.24 71.58 69.21
2015 14.63 11.58 14.16 13.46 62.59 45.63 57.37 55.19
2016 16.83 10.58 12.08 13.16 47.96 34.04 43.21 41.74
2017 14.46 6.78 14.46 11.90 31.13 23.46 31.13 28.58
2018 16.68 16.68 16.68 16.68 16.68 16.68 16.68 16.68

300
ANALISIS DE CONSISTENCIA
f(x) = 1.01307184092976 x + 5.04004072437107
f(x)
R² ==0.999621755802902
1.00296020584612 x + 1.78866019555588
R²
f(x)==0.999964727339013
0.98396795322412 x − 6.82870091992695
250 R² = 0.999395529390753

200

ESTA
CION
ESTACIONES

150 JAÉN
Linear
(ESTA
CION
100 JAÉN)

50

0 PATRON
0 100 200 300 (ACUMULADO)

CONCLUCIÓN: Los datos metereologicos de las estaciones son consistentes.

 DISTRIBUCION NORMAL PRECIPITACION MAXIMA 24 HORAS

PP Max PPMax 𝑓(𝑥)=1/(𝑆√2𝜋) 𝑒^((−1)/2 ((𝑥−𝜇)/𝑠)^2 )

AÑO F(X) f(X)
(mm) ordenados
1985 39.60 102.10 1.0000 0.0000
1986 28.20 52.10 𝐹(𝑥)=∫_(−∞)^(+∞)▒
0.8271 0.0174 〖 1/(𝑆√2𝜋) 𝑒^( 〖 (−1)/2 ((𝑥−𝜇)/𝑠) 〗 ^2 ) 〗
1987 26.00 50.30 0.7941 0.0193
1988 102.10 48.60 0.7597 0.0211
1989 31.70 47.40 0.7336 0.0223
1990 11.50 46.00 0.7016 0.0235 𝑍=(𝑋−𝜇)/𝑆Tabla F(X)
1991 30.40 43.40 0.6378 0.0254
1992 33.80 42.70 0.6198 0.0258
1993 36.30 41.50 0.5885 0.0264
1994 35.80 40.40 0.5592 0.0268
1995 35.30 39.60 0.5377 0.0269
1996 33.00 37.20 0.4729 0.0270
1997 37.20 37.00 0.4675 0.0270
1998 42.70 36.30 0.4486 0.0268
1999 40.40 35.80 0.4352 0.0267
2000 31.10 35.60 0.4299 0.0266
2001 30.80 35.30 0.4219 0.0265
2002 31.00 33.80 0.3826 0.0259
2003 32.50 33.00 0.3621 0.0254
2004 50.30 32.50 0.3494 0.0251
2005 35.60 31.70 0.3296 0.0246
2006 43.40 31.10 0.3150 0.0241
2007 37.00 31.00 0.3126 0.0240
2008 27.60 30.80 0.3078 0.0239
2009 46.00 30.40 0.2983 0.0235
2010 52.10 28.20 0.2487 0.0215
2011 41.50 27.60 0.2360 0.0209
2012 47.40 27.20 0.2277 0.0205
2013 27.20 26.00 0.2039 0.0192
2014 48.60 11.50 0.0350 0.0052

Calculo de variables probabilisticas:

MEDIA 38.20
DESVIACION ESTANDAR 14.74

GRÁFICO DE LA DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL

DISTRIBUCION NORMAL PRECIPITACION MAXIMA 24 HORAS

0.028
0.024
0.020
0.016
f(X)

0.012
0.008
0.004
0.000
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
PP ordenados
 ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS

AÑO PP Max PPMax

Y=ln(x) F(x) f(x)
𝑓(𝑥)=1/(𝑆√2𝜋) 𝑒^((−1)/2 ((𝑥−𝜇)/𝑠)^2 )
(mm) ordenado
1985 39.60 102.10 4.626 0.999 0.012
1986 28.20 52.10 3.953 𝐹(𝑥)=∫_(−∞)^(+∞)▒
0.858 0.654 〖 1/(𝑆√2𝜋) 𝑒^( 〖 (−1)/2 ((𝑥−𝜇)/𝑠) 〗 ^2 ) 〗
1987 26.00 50.30 3.918 0.834 0.726
1988 102.10 48.60 3.884 0.807 0.796
1989 31.70 47.40 3.859 0.787 0.846
1990 11.50 46.00 3.829 0.761 0.904 𝑍=(𝑋−𝜇)/𝑆 Tabla F(X)
1991 30.40 43.40 3.770 0.705 1.004
1992 33.80 42.70 3.754 0.689 1.029
1993 36.30 41.50 3.726 0.659 1.068
1994 35.80 40.40 3.699 0.630 1.100
1995 35.30 39.60 3.679 0.607 1.119
1996 33.00 37.20 3.616 0.536 1.157
1997 37.20 37.00 3.611 0.530 1.158
1998 42.70 36.30 3.592 0.508 1.161
1999 40.40 35.80 3.578 0.492 1.161
2000 31.10 35.60 3.572 0.485 1.161
2001 30.80 35.30 3.564 0.475 1.159
2002 31.00 33.80 3.520 0.425 1.141
2003 32.50 33.00 3.497 0.398 1.123
2004 50.30 32.50 3.481 0.381 1.109
2005 35.60 31.70 3.456 0.354 1.082
2006 43.40 31.10 3.437 0.333 1.058
2007 37.00 31.00 3.434 0.330 1.054
2008 27.60 30.80 3.428 0.323 1.045
2009 46.00 30.40 3.414 0.309 1.026
2010 52.10 28.20 3.339 0.237 0.899
2011 41.50 27.60 3.318 0.218 0.858
2012 47.40 27.20 3.303 0.206 0.829
2013 27.20 26.00 3.258 0.170 0.738
2014 48.60 11.50 2.442 0.000 0.005

Calculo de variables probabilisticas:

MEDIA 3.59
DESVIACION ESTANDAR 0.34

GRÁFICO DE LA DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS

DISTRIB. LOG-NORMAL II PARÁMETROS

1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
f(X)

0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
 ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS

AÑO PP max PP max y=ln(x-a) F(x) f(x)

𝑓(𝑥)=1/(𝑆√2𝜋) 𝑒^((−1)/2 ((𝑥−𝜇)/𝑠)^2 )
(mm) ordenados
1985 39.60 102.10 4.602 0.998 0.015
1986 28.20 52.10 3.906 0.854 0.612 𝐹(𝑥)=∫_(−∞)^(+∞)▒ 〖 1/(𝑆√2𝜋) 𝑒^( 〖 (−1)/2 (
1987 26.00 50.30 3.870 0.830 0.675
1988 102.10 48.60 3.833 0.805 0.737
1989 31.70 47.40 3.807 0.785 0.781 𝑎=( 〖 (𝑋 〗 _𝑚𝑖𝑛∗𝑋_𝑚𝑎𝑥−𝑋 ̅^2))/( 〖 (𝑋 〗 _
1990 11.50 46.00 3.776 0.759 0.832
1991 30.40 43.40 3.714 0.705 0.921
1992 33.80 42.70 3.697 0.689 0.943
𝑍=(𝑋−𝜇)/𝑆
1993 36.30 41.50 3.667 0.660 0.978 Tabla F(X)
1994 35.80 40.40 3.638 0.632 1.007
1995 35.30 39.60 3.617 0.610 1.025
1996 33.00 37.20 3.550 0.541 1.060
1997 37.20 37.00 3.544 0.535 1.062
1998 42.70 36.30 3.524 0.513 1.065
1999 40.40 35.80 3.509 0.497 1.065
2000 31.10 35.60 3.503 0.491 1.065
2001 30.80 35.30 3.494 0.481 1.064
2002 31.00 33.80 3.448 0.432 1.050
2003 32.50 33.00 3.422 0.405 1.035
2004 50.30 32.50 3.405 0.388 1.023
2005 35.60 31.70 3.378 0.361 1.000
2006 43.40 31.10 3.358 0.340 0.979
2007 37.00 31.00 3.354 0.337 0.975
2008 27.60 30.80 3.347 0.330 0.967
2009 46.00 30.40 3.333 0.316 0.950
2010 52.10 28.20 3.251 0.243 0.836
2011 41.50 27.60 3.228 0.224 0.799
2012 47.40 27.20 3.212 0.211 0.772
2013 27.20 26.00 3.162 0.175 0.689
2014 48.60 11.50 2.211 0.000 0.003

Calculo de variables probabilisticas:

MEDIA 3.512
DESVIACION ESTANDAR 0.374
MEDIA DE DATOS DE PP 35.70
a= 2.378
EFICIENTE DE ASIMETRIA -0.588
GRAFICO
DISTR. LOG-NORMAL III PARÁMETROS
1.50

1.00
f(x)

0.50

0.00
2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50
LN(x-a)
−1)/2 ((𝑥−𝜇)/𝑠)^2 )

1/(𝑆√2𝜋) 𝑒^( 〖 (−1)/2 ((𝑥−𝜇)/𝑠) 〗 ^2 ) 〗 𝑑𝑥

𝑚𝑎𝑥−𝑋 ̅^2))/( 〖 (𝑋 〗 _𝑚𝑖𝑛+𝑋_𝑚𝑎𝑥−2𝑋 ̅))
 ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL

Calculo de variables probabilisticas:

P exc = F (x > X)
y 1
F ( x  X )  1  e e  Fórmulas a usar para calcular el tiempo de
Tr
retorno mediante la distribución de Gumbel.
xu
y
a
Media (x) 38.203
Desviación Estandar (Sx) 14.742
n = número de datos 30
yn medio = 0.53622 Datos del cuadro 1.6 - 7
Sn = 1.11237

Parámetros, según n
a = Sx / Sn = 13.253
u = x-yn*a= 31.097 % de no
excedencia
PP max PP max
AÑO (mm) ordenados y = (x - u)/a Tr 1-1/Tr
1985 39.60 102.10 5.358 212.712 0.995
1986 28.20 52.10 1.585 5.395 0.815
1987 26.00 50.30 1.449 4.778 0.791
1988 102.10 48.60 1.321 4.268 0.766
1989 31.70 47.40 1.230 3.946 0.747
1990 11.50 46.00 1.125 3.606 0.723
1991 30.40 43.40 0.928 3.063 0.674
1992 33.80 42.70 0.876 2.935 0.659
1993 36.30 41.50 0.785 2.730 0.634
1994 35.80 40.40 0.702 2.559 0.609
1995 35.30 39.60 0.642 2.443 0.591
1996 33.00 37.20 0.461 2.137 0.532
1997 37.20 37.00 0.445 2.114 0.527
1998 42.70 36.30 0.393 2.037 0.509
1999 40.40 35.80 0.355 1.984 0.496
2000 31.10 35.60 0.340 1.963 0.491
2001 30.80 35.30 0.317 1.933 0.483
2002 31.00 33.80 0.204 1.793 0.442
2003 32.50 33.00 0.144 1.726 0.421
2004 50.30 32.50 0.106 1.686 0.407
2005 35.60 31.70 0.046 1.625 0.385
2006 43.40 31.10 0.000 1.582 0.368
2007 37.00 31.00 -0.007 1.575 0.365
2008 27.60 30.80 -0.022 1.562 0.360
2009 46.00 30.40 -0.053 1.535 0.349
2010 52.10 28.20 -0.219 1.405 0.288
2011 41.50 27.60 -0.264 1.374 0.272
2012 47.40 27.20 -0.294 1.354 0.261
2013 27.20 26.00 -0.385 1.299 0.230
2014 48.60 11.50 -1.479 1.013 0.013

GRAFICO

DISTR. GUMBEL
110
100
90
80
PP.ORDENADO

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0
Tr
CORRECTO
 ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - PEARSON III

N° DE PP max PP max (Y- (Y- P(X)= Z = (Y- VARIACION

ORDEN AÑO (mm) Ordenado Y=lnx Yprm.)^2 Yprm.)^3 m/(n+1) Yprom.)/S F(Z)
F(Z)-P(x)
1 1985 39.60 102.10 4.626 1.083 1.127 0.032 3.030 0.999 0.967
2 1986 28.20 52.10 3.953 0.135 0.050 0.065 1.071 0.858 0.793
3 1987 26.00 50.30 3.918 0.111 0.037 0.097 0.969 0.834 0.737
4 1988 102.10 48.60 3.884 0.089 0.027 0.129 0.869 0.807 0.678
5 1989 31.70 47.40 3.859 0.075 0.020 0.161 0.796 0.787 0.626
6 1990 11.50 46.00 3.829 0.059 0.014 0.194 0.709 0.761 0.567
7 1991 30.40 43.40 3.770 0.034 0.006 0.226 0.539 0.705 0.479
8 1992 33.80 42.70 3.754 0.029 0.005 0.258 0.492 0.689 0.431
9 1993 36.30 41.50 3.726 0.020 0.003 0.290 0.409 0.659 0.368
10 1994 35.80 40.40 3.699 0.013 0.001 0.323 0.331 0.630 0.307
11 1995 35.30 39.60 3.679 0.009 0.001 0.355 0.272 0.607 0.253
12 1996 33.00 37.20 3.616 0.001 0.000 0.387 0.090 0.536 0.149
13 1997 37.20 37.00 3.611 0.001 0.000 0.419 0.075 0.530 0.110
14 1998 42.70 36.30 3.592 0.000 0.000 0.452 0.019 0.508 0.056
15 1999 40.40 35.80 3.578 0.000 0.000 0.484 -0.021 0.492 0.008
16 2000 31.10 35.60 3.572 0.000 0.000 0.516 -0.038 0.485 -0.031
17 2001 30.80 35.30 3.564 0.000 0.000 0.548 -0.062 0.475 -0.073
18 2002 31.00 33.80 3.520 0.004 0.000 0.581 -0.189 0.425 -0.155
19 2003 32.50 33.00 3.497 0.008 -0.001 0.613 -0.258 0.398 -0.215
20 2004 50.30 32.50 3.481 0.011 -0.001 0.645 -0.303 0.381 -0.264
21 2005 35.60 31.70 3.456 0.017 -0.002 0.677 -0.375 0.354 -0.324
22 2006 43.40 31.10 3.437 0.022 -0.003 0.710 -0.431 0.333 -0.376
23 2007 37.00 31.00 3.434 0.023 -0.003 0.742 -0.440 0.330 -0.412
24 2008 27.60 30.80 3.428 0.025 -0.004 0.774 -0.459 0.323 -0.451
25 2009 46.00 30.40 3.414 0.029 -0.005 0.806 -0.497 0.309 -0.497
26 2010 52.10 28.20 3.339 0.060 -0.015 0.839 -0.716 0.237 -0.602
27 2011 41.50 27.60 3.318 0.072 -0.019 0.871 -0.779 0.218 -0.653
28 2012 47.40 27.20 3.303 0.080 -0.022 0.903 -0.821 0.206 -0.697
29 2013 27.20 26.00 3.258 0.107 -0.035 0.935 -0.952 0.170 -0.765
30 2014 48.60 11.50 2.442 1.306 -1.493 0.968 -3.327 0.000 -0.967

DATOS:
Ln (x) Promedio = 3.585
S: Desviación Estandar = 0.344

𝐹(𝑍)=∫_(−∞)^(+∞)▒ 〖 1/(𝑆√2𝜋) 𝑒^( 〖 (−1)/2 (𝑧) 〗 ^2 ) 〗 𝑑𝑧

𝑍=(𝑌−𝜇)/𝑆

F(Z) ver tabla

GRÁFICO

LOG-PEARSON III Logarithmic (LOG-PEARSON III)

Logarithmic (LOG-PEARSON III) Logarithmic (LOG-PEARSON III)
1.00
Logarithmic (LOG-PEARSON III)
0.90
f(x) = 0.101685354131358 ln(x) + 0.803257473617455
R² = 0.86096484974389
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
F(Z)

0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-3.40 -2.40 -1.40 -0.40 0.60 1.60 2.60
Z
 AJUSTE DE BONDA PARA PRECIPITACION MAX. 24h (mm)
ESTACION YAURI

· CHI CUADRADO = Si la muestra es extensa mayor a 100 datos de una serie hidrológica, para su análisis es razonable agruparlos.
En conclusión esta prueba se realiza para datos agrupados.
· SMIRNOV-KOLMOGOROV Para numeros de datos menores que 100, con lo que agruparlos se cometerian grandes errores, por lo que se trabajaria sin agruparlos.

PASOS :
Ordenar de mayor a menor o viceversa, Asignando una probabilidad empirica u observada (la de Weibull), porque elimina errores de frontera.
Obtener la probabilidad teorica para cada valor de la variable observada "x".
Obtener las diferencias en valor absoluto entre las probabilidades simuladas.
Determinar la maxima desviacion absoluta y se compara con el valor critico de la probabilidad de Kolmogorov, obtenida de la tabla correspondiente al 5
% de significacion.

"𝛼"
Valor critico de la prueba SMIRNOV-KOLMOGOROV para varios valores de NA y niveles de significacion

Nivel de Significacion "𝛼"

Tamaño Muestral "N"
0.01 0.05 0.10 0.20 Forma de interpolación de datos:
5 0.45 0.51 0.56 0.67 Para N= 30
10 0.32 0.37 0.41 0.49
15 0.27 0.3 0.34 0.4
20 0.23 0.26 0.29 0.36 20 0.26
25 0.21 0.24 0.27 0.32 30 x
30 0.19 0.22 0.24 0.29 25 0.24
35 0.18 0.2 0.23 0.27
40 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.25 x = 0.220
45 0.16 0.18 0.2 0.24
50 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.23
1.07/√𝑁 1.22/√𝑁 1.36/√𝑁 1.63/√𝑁
N > 50
 PRUEBA DE SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV
DATOS Probabilidad de excedencia F(x) Diferencia Delta D
PP. Max ORD.
(mm) LOG-
N° Empirica Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel LOG-PEAR.III
PEAR.III
1 102.10 0.0323 0.0000 0.00122 0.00179 0.0047 0.0012 0.0323 0.0310 0.0305 0.0276 0.0310
2 52.10 0.0645 0.1729 0.14208 0.14608 0.1854 0.1421 0.1084 0.0776 0.0816 0.1208 0.0776
3 50.30 0.0968 0.2059 0.16635 0.16981 0.2093 0.1664 0.1092 0.0696 0.0730 0.1125 0.0696
4 48.60 0.1290 0.2403 0.19254 0.19532 0.2343 0.1925 0.1113 0.0635 0.0663 0.1053 0.0635
5 47.40 0.1613 0.2664 0.21307 0.21529 0.2534 0.2131 0.1051 0.0518 0.0540 0.0921 0.0518
6 46.00 0.1935 0.2984 0.23931 0.24077 0.2773 0.2393 0.1049 0.0458 0.0472 0.0838 0.0458
7 43.40 0.2258 0.3622 0.29489 0.29470 0.3265 0.2949 0.1364 0.0691 0.0689 0.1007 0.0691
8 42.70 0.2581 0.3802 0.31142 0.31075 0.3407 0.3114 0.1221 0.0534 0.0527 0.0827 0.0534
9 41.50 0.2903 0.4115 0.34133 0.33979 0.3663 0.3413 0.1212 0.0510 0.0495 0.0760 0.0510
10 40.40 0.3226 0.4408 0.37046 0.36811 0.3908 0.3705 0.1182 0.0479 0.0455 0.0682 0.0479
11 39.60 0.3548 0.4623 0.39266 0.38971 0.4093 0.3927 0.1074 0.0378 0.0349 0.0545 0.0378
12 37.20 0.3871 0.5271 0.46399 0.45935 0.4680 0.4640 0.1400 0.0769 0.0723 0.0809 0.0769
13 37.00 0.4194 0.5325 0.47023 0.46546 0.4730 0.4702 0.1132 0.0509 0.0461 0.0537 0.0509
14 36.30 0.4516 0.5514 0.49238 0.48719 0.4909 0.4924 0.0998 0.0408 0.0356 0.0393 0.0408
15 35.80 0.4839 0.5648 0.50849 0.50301 0.5040 0.5085 0.0809 0.0246 0.0191 0.0202 0.0246
16 35.60 0.5161 0.5701 0.51499 0.50940 0.5094 0.5150 0.0540 0.0011 0.0067 0.0067 0.0011
17 35.30 0.5484 0.5781 0.52481 0.51906 0.5173 0.5248 0.0297 0.0236 0.0293 0.0311 0.0236
18 33.80 0.5806 0.6174 0.57481 0.56841 0.5577 0.5748 0.0368 0.0058 0.0122 0.0229 0.0058
19 33.00 0.6129 0.6379 0.60194 0.59531 0.5794 0.6019 0.0250 0.0110 0.0176 0.0335 0.0110
20 32.50 0.6452 0.6506 0.61898 0.61225 0.5931 0.6190 0.0054 0.0262 0.0329 0.0520 0.0262
21 31.70 0.6774 0.6704 0.64631 0.63948 0.6154 0.6463 0.0070 0.0311 0.0379 0.0620 0.0311
22 31.10 0.7097 0.6850 0.66676 0.65994 0.6321 0.6668 0.0246 0.0429 0.0497 0.0776 0.0429
23 31.00 0.7419 0.6874 0.67017 0.66335 0.6349 0.6702 0.0545 0.0718 0.0786 0.1070 0.0718
24 30.80 0.7742 0.6922 0.67696 0.67015 0.6402 0.6770 0.0820 0.0972 0.1040 0.1340 0.0972
25 30.40 0.8065 0.7017 0.69050 0.68374 0.6515 0.6905 0.1047 0.1160 0.1227 0.1550 0.1160
26 28.20 0.8387 0.7513 0.76299 0.75696 0.7117 0.7630 0.0874 0.0757 0.0817 0.1270 0.0757
27 27.60 0.8710 0.7640 0.78188 0.77618 0.7278 0.7819 0.1070 0.0891 0.0948 0.1432 0.0891
28 27.20 0.9032 0.7723 0.79420 0.78874 0.7386 0.7942 0.1309 0.1090 0.1145 0.1647 0.1090
29 26.00 0.9355 0.7961 0.82956 0.82495 0.7698 0.8296 0.1394 0.1059 0.1105 0.1657 0.1059
30 11.50 0.9677 0.9650 0.99956 0.99975 0.9872 0.9996 0.0028 0.0318 0.0320 0.0194 0.0318
Valor Máximo = 0.140 0.116 0.111 0.166 0.116
0.220

Aceptado Aceptado Aceptado Aceptado Aceptado

Escogemos el valor menor del ajuste de bonda, en este caso escogeremos la Log Normal 3p
 ERROR CUADRATICO MEDIO MINIMO
DATOS Probabilidad de excedencia F(x) ERROR CUADRATICO MEDIO MINIMO
PP. Max ORD.
(mm) Empirica LOG-
N° Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel LOG-PEAR.III
(f=m/(N+1)) PEAR.III
1 11.50 0.0323 0.0000 0.0012 0.0018 0.0047 0.0012 1.9293 72.1310 116.9210 31.1587 58.6296
2 26.00 0.0645 0.1729 0.1421 0.1461 0.1854 0.1421 83.9789 16.6546 2.8832 40.9856 22.7720
3 27.20 0.0968 0.2059 0.1664 0.1698 0.2093 0.1664 56.8516 14.3565 1.8714 33.9539 19.2458
4 27.60 0.1290 0.2403 0.1925 0.1953 0.2343 0.1925 31.9677 8.4623 0.2107 22.8197 11.8405
5 28.20 0.1613 0.2664 0.2131 0.2153 0.2534 0.2131 18.4213 5.5413 0.0139 16.9003 8.0656
6 30.40 0.1935 0.2984 0.2393 0.2408 0.2773 0.2393 22.5055 12.1034 0.9821 26.6462 15.4921
7 30.80 0.2258 0.3622 0.2949 0.2947 0.3265 0.2949 12.5883 8.1796 0.1282 20.1870 10.8834
8 31.00 0.2581 0.3802 0.3114 0.3107 0.3407 0.3114 5.1302 4.3139 0.1884 13.5277 6.3051
9 31.10 0.2903 0.4115 0.3413 0.3398 0.3663 0.3413 0.9351 1.4860 1.6874 7.8512 2.7556
10 31.70 0.3226 0.4408 0.3705 0.3681 0.3908 0.3705 0.0543 0.7674 2.7126 6.0172 1.7796
11 32.50 0.3548 0.4623 0.3927 0.3897 0.4093 0.3927 0.0625 0.5476 3.1898 5.3870 1.5031
12 33.00 0.3871 0.5271 0.4640 0.4594 0.4680 0.4640 0.9940 0.0924 4.9417 3.6024 0.6889
13 33.80 0.4194 0.5325 0.4702 0.4655 0.4730 0.4702 2.0051 0.0262 5.5885 3.1648 0.5476
14 35.30 0.4516 0.5514 0.4924 0.4872 0.4909 0.4924 1.2499 0.4998 3.2979 5.5554 1.8279
15 35.60 0.4839 0.5648 0.5085 0.5030 0.5040 0.5085 4.0361 0.0011 6.1752 2.9791 0.5761
16 35.80 0.5161 0.5701 0.5150 0.5094 0.5094 0.5150 8.9880 0.5868 10.7322 0.9643 0.0035
17 36.30 0.5484 0.5781 0.5248 0.5191 0.5173 0.5248 13.6309 1.6822 14.4248 0.2683 0.1260
18 37.00 0.5806 0.6174 0.5748 0.5684 0.5577 0.5748 17.6232 2.7856 17.2973 0.0524 0.3434
19 37.20 0.6129 0.6379 0.6019 0.5953 0.5794 0.6019 27.3111 6.7185 25.6644 0.3505 1.7956
20 39.60 0.6452 0.6506 0.6190 0.6122 0.5931 0.6190 16.6872 1.8934 14.6919 0.5580 0.0061
21 40.40 0.6774 0.6704 0.6463 0.6395 0.6154 0.6463 21.0314 3.3746 18.2500 0.1918 0.0196
22 41.50 0.7097 0.6850 0.6668 0.6599 0.6321 0.6668 23.4450 4.3806 20.2590 0.1376 0.0104
23 42.70 0.7419 0.6874 0.6702 0.6633 0.6349 0.6702 25.7150 5.6122 22.5150 0.1109 0.0003
24 43.40 0.7742 0.6922 0.6770 0.6702 0.6402 0.6770 34.7746 10.8900 31.7758 0.0853 0.2460
25 46.00 0.8065 0.7017 0.6905 0.6837 0.6515 0.6905 24.5223 6.4313 23.2710 0.7656 0.7123
26 47.40 0.8387 0.7513 0.7630 0.7570 0.7117 0.7630 28.9982 10.5950 30.0304 0.4998 0.7815
27 48.60 0.8710 0.7640 0.7819 0.7762 0.7278 0.7819 39.4007 21.0222 45.2525 0.0269 0.3528
28 50.30 0.9032 0.7723 0.7942 0.7887 0.7386 0.7942 50.0273 36.8449 65.5452 0.0121 0.4020
29 52.10 0.9355 0.7961 0.8296 0.8250 0.7698 0.8296 71.9952 74.8398 110.1870 0.3612 0.2959
30 102.10 0.9677 0.9650 0.9996 0.9997 0.9872 0.9996 1342.3430 1158.6535 1058.9167 2175.6627 2334.7258
Suma de Cuadrados = 1989.203 1491.474 1659.605 2420.784 2502.734
C =RAIZ(SUMA/N) 8.143 7.051 7.438 8.983 9.134

Escogemos el valor menor del ajuste de bonda, en este caso escogeremos la Log Normal 2p
PRECIPITACION MAX. 24h (mm) DE LA DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL POR EL AJUSTE DE BONDAD
PRECIPITACION MAX. 24h (mm) PARA DIFERENTES PERIODOS DE RETORNO
Parámetros de la Distribución Gumbel

Tr (Años) 2 10 20 25 50 100 200 500

Media 38.203
Desviacion Estandar 14.742
Yn 0.536
Sn 1.112
a = Sx / Sn = 13.253
u = x-yn*a= 31.097

Periodo de retorno = 2 años Periodo de retorno = 10 años

Fórmula a emplear: Fórmula a emplear:
𝒚=−𝒍𝒏(−𝒍𝒏(𝟏−𝟏/𝑻𝒓) 𝒚=−𝒍𝒏(−𝒍𝒏(𝟏−𝟏/𝑻𝒓)

𝑷_𝟐=𝒚∗𝒂+𝒖 𝑷_𝟏𝟎=𝒚∗𝒂+𝒖
Reemplazamos: Reemplazamos:
Tr = 2 Años Tr = 10 Años
y= 0.367 y= 2.250
P2 = 35.95 mm P10 = 60.92 mm
Periodo de retorno = 20 años Periodo de retorno = 25 años
Fórmula a emplear: Fórmula a emplear:
𝒚=−𝒍𝒏(−𝒍𝒏(𝟏−𝟏/𝑻𝒓) 𝒚=−𝒍𝒏(−𝒍𝒏(𝟏−𝟏/𝑻𝒓)

𝑷_𝟐𝟎=𝒚∗𝒂+𝒖 𝑷_𝟐𝟓=𝒚∗𝒂+𝒖
Reemplazamos: Reemplazamos:
Tr = 20 Años Tr = 25 Años
y= 2.970 y= 3.199
P2 = 70.46 mm P2 = 73.49 mm
Periodo de retorno = 50 años Periodo de retorno = 100 años
Fórmula a emplear: Fórmula a emplear:
𝒚=−𝒍𝒏(−𝒍𝒏(𝟏−𝟏/𝑻𝒓) 𝒚=−𝒍𝒏(−𝒍𝒏(𝟏−𝟏/𝑻𝒓)

𝑷_𝟓𝟎=𝒚∗𝒂+𝒖 𝑷_𝟏𝟎𝟎=𝒚∗𝒂+𝒖
Reemplazamos: Reemplazamos:
Tr = 50 Años Tr = 100 Años
y= 3.902 y= 4.600
P2 = 82.81 mm P2 = 92.06 mm
Periodo de retorno = 200 años Periodo de retorno = 500 años
Fórmula a emplear: Fórmula a emplear:
𝒚=−𝒍𝒏(−𝒍𝒏(𝟏−𝟏/𝑻𝒓) 𝒚=−𝒍𝒏(−𝒍𝒏(𝟏−𝟏/𝑻𝒓)

𝑷_𝟐𝟎𝟎=𝒚∗𝒂+𝒖 𝑷_𝟓𝟎𝟎=𝒚∗𝒂+𝒖
Reemplazamos: Reemplazamos:
Tr = 200 Años Tr = 500 Años
y= 5.296 y= 6.214
P2 = 101.28 mm P2 = 113.44 mm

CUADRO RESUMEN
PERIODO DE RETORNO PRECIPITACION MAX 24 HH
2 35.95
10 60.92
20 70.46
25 73.49
50 82.81
100 92.06
200 101.28
500 113.44
INTENSIDAD DE LLUVIA A PARTIR DE LAS PRECIPITACIONES MAX 24 HH
TIEMPO DE CONCENTRACCIÓN KIRPICH T𝑐 = (0.01947*L^0.77)/(S^0.0385)
L = 3520.0 m
S= 0.061
S= 0.061
Tc = 30.74 min

METODO DICK PESCHKE : Para casos de tiempo de duracion menores a 1 hora.

Fórmula usada:
𝑷_𝒅=𝑷_𝟐𝟒𝒉 (𝒅/𝟏𝟒𝟒𝟎)^(𝟎.𝟐𝟓) Pd = Precipitacion total (mm)
P24h = Precipitación máxima en 24 horas (mm)
d = Tiempo de duracion en minutos
TIEMPO DE DURACIÓN PRECIPITACIÓN TOTAL (mm)
HH 2 10 20 25 50 100 200 500
5 minut. 8.73 14.79 17.10 17.84 20.10 22.35 24.59 27.54
15 minut. 11.49 19.46 22.51 23.48 26.45 29.41 32.36 36.24
30 minut. 13.66 23.14 26.77 27.92 31.46 34.98 38.48 43.10
45 minut. 15.12 25.61 29.62 30.90 34.82 38.71 42.58 47.70
60 minut. 16.24 27.52 31.83 33.20 37.41 41.59 45.76 51.25

Fórmula usada:
Pd = Precipitacion total (mm)
𝑰=𝑷_𝒅/𝒅
I = Intensidad (mm/horas)
d = Tiempo de duracion en minutos
TIEMPO DE DURACIÓN INTENSIDAD (mm/horas)
HH 2 10 20 25 50 100 200 500
5 minut. 104.73 177.46 205.25 214.06 241.22 268.17 295.03 330.46
15 minut. 45.95 77.85 90.04 93.91 105.82 117.64 129.43 144.97
30 minut. 27.32 46.29 53.54 55.84 62.92 69.95 76.96 86.20
45 minut. 20.16 34.15 39.50 41.20 46.42 51.61 56.78 63.60
60 minut. 16.24 27.52 31.83 33.20 37.41 41.59 45.76 51.25
 REGRESIONES I-D-F
PERIODO DE RETORNO T = 2 AÑOS
PER. DUR. N° X Y LN(X) LN(Y) LN(X)*LN(Y) (LNX)^2
5 1 5 104.73 1.61 4.65 7.49 2.59
15 2 15 45.95 2.71 3.83 10.36 7.33
30 3 30 27.32 3.40 3.31 11.25 11.57
45 4 45 20.16 3.81 3.00 11.43 14.49
60 5 60 16.24 4.09 2.79 11.41 16.76
SUMA 5 155 214.40 15.62 17.58 51.95 52.75

Ln (d) = 5.86 d= 350.20 n= -0.750

GRAFICO

235.0 REGRESIÓN T= 2 años

215.0
195.0
175.0
Intensidad (mm/hr)

155.0
135.0
115.0
95.0
f(x) = 350.195595425002 x^-0.75
75.0
R² = 1
55.0
35.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Duración (min)
I Vs. t Power (I Vs. t)

PERIODO DE RETORNO T = 10 AÑOS

PER. DUR. N° X Y LN(X) LN(Y) LN(X)*LN(Y) (LNX)^2
5 1 5 177.46 1.61 5.18 8.33 2.59
15 2 15 77.85 2.71 4.35 11.79 7.33
30 3 30 46.29 3.40 3.83 13.04 11.57
45 4 45 34.15 3.81 3.53 13.44 14.49
60 5 60 27.52 4.09 3.32 13.57 16.76
SUMA 5 155 363.27 15.62 20.21 60.18 52.75

Ln (d) = 6.39 d= 593.37 n= -0.750

GRAFICO

375.0
REGRESIÓN T= 10 años

335.0

295.0

255.0
Intensidad (mm/hr)

215.0

175.0
f(x) = 593.369213421076 x^-0.75
135.0
R² = 1
95.0

55.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Duración (min)
I Vs. t Power (I Vs. t)
 PERIODO DE RETORNO T = 20 AÑOS
PER. DUR. N° X Y LN(X) LN(Y) LN(X)*LN(Y) (LNX)^2
5 1 5 205.25 1.61 5.32 8.57 2.59
15 2 15 90.04 2.71 4.50 12.19 7.33
30 3 30 53.54 3.40 3.98 13.54 11.57
45 4 45 39.50 3.81 3.68 13.99 14.49
60 5 60 31.83 4.09 3.46 14.17 16.76
SUMA 5 155 420.16 15.62 20.94 62.46 52.75

Ln (d) = 6.53 d= 686.29 n= -0.750

GRAFICO

420.0
REGRESIÓN T= 20 años
380.0
340.0
300.0
Intensidad (mm/hr)

260.0
220.0
180.0 f(x) = 686.286776177627 x^-0.75
140.0 R² = 1
100.0
60.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Duración (min)
I Vs. t Power (I Vs. t)

PERIODO DE RETORNO T = 25 AÑOS

PER. DUR. N° X Y LN(X) LN(Y) LN(X)*LN(Y) (LNX)^2
5 1 5 214.06 1.61 5.37 8.64 2.59
15 2 15 93.91 2.71 4.54 12.30 7.33
30 3 30 55.84 3.40 4.02 13.68 11.57
45 4 45 41.20 3.81 3.72 14.15 14.49
60 5 60 33.20 4.09 3.50 14.34 16.76
SUMA 5 155 438.21 15.62 21.15 63.11 52.75

Ln (d) = 6.57 d= 715.76 n= -0.750

GRAFICO

420.0
REGRESIÓN T= 25 años
380.0
340.0
300.0
Intensidad (mm/hr)

260.0
220.0
180.0 f(x) = 715.761465716983 x^-0.75
140.0
R² = 1
100.0
60.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Duración (min)
I Vs. t Power (I Vs. t)
 PERIODO DE RETORNO T = 50 AÑOS
PER. DUR. N° X Y LN(X) LN(Y) LN(X)*LN(Y) (LNX)^2
5 1 5 241.22 1.61 5.49 8.83 2.59
15 2 15 105.82 2.71 4.66 12.62 7.33
30 3 30 62.92 3.40 4.14 14.09 11.57
45 4 45 46.42 3.81 3.84 14.61 14.49
60 5 60 37.41 4.09 3.62 14.83 16.76
SUMA 5 155 493.79 15.62 21.75 64.98 52.75

Ln (d) = 6.69 d= 806.56 n= -0.750

GRAFICO

REGRESIÓN T= 50 años
470.0
420.0
370.0
Intensidad (mm/hr)

320.0
270.0
220.0 f(x) = 806.559030219735 x^-0.75
170.0 R² = 1
120.0
70.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Duración (min)
I Vs. t Power (I Vs. t)

PERIODO DE RETORNO T = 100 AÑOS

PER. DUR. N° X Y LN(X) LN(Y) LN(X)*LN(Y) (LNX)^2
5 1 5 268.17 1.61 5.59 9.00 2.59
15 2 15 117.64 2.71 4.77 12.91 7.33
30 3 30 69.95 3.40 4.25 14.45 11.57
45 4 45 51.61 3.81 3.94 15.01 14.49
60 5 60 41.59 4.09 3.73 15.26 16.76
SUMA 5 155 548.97 15.62 22.28 66.63 52.75

Ln (d) = 6.80 d= 896.69 n= -0.750

GRAFICO

520.0
REGRESIÓN T= 100 años
470.0
420.0
370.0
Intensidad (mm/hr)

320.0
270.0
220.0
f(x) = 896.686159758766 x^-0.75
R² = 1
170.0
120.0
70.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Duración (min)
I Vs. t Power (I Vs. t)
 PERIODO DE RETORNO T = 200 AÑOS
PER. DUR. N° X Y LN(X) LN(Y) LN(X)*LN(Y) (LNX)^2
5 1 5 295.03 1.61 5.69 9.15 2.59
15 2 15 129.43 2.71 4.86 13.17 7.33
30 3 30 76.96 3.40 4.34 14.77 11.57
45 4 45 56.78 3.81 4.04 15.38 14.49
60 5 60 45.76 4.09 3.82 15.65 16.76
SUMA 5 155 603.95 15.62 22.76 68.12 52.75

Ln (d) = 6.89 d= 986.48 n= -0.750

GRAFICO

REGRESIÓN T= 200 años

560.0

500.0

440.0
Intensidad (mm/hr)

380.0

320.0

260.0 f(x) = 986.484430541406 x^-0.75

200.0
R² = 1
140.0

80.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Duración (min)
I Vs. t Power (I Vs. t)

PERIODO DE RETORNO T = 500 AÑOS

PER. DUR. N° X Y LN(X) LN(Y) LN(X)*LN(Y) (LNX)^2
5 1 5 330.46 1.61 5.80 9.34 2.59
15 2 15 144.97 2.71 4.98 13.48 7.33
30 3 30 86.20 3.40 4.46 15.16 11.57
45 4 45 63.60 3.81 4.15 15.81 14.49
60 5 60 51.25 4.09 3.94 16.12 16.76
SUMA 5 155 676.48 15.62 23.32 69.90 52.75

Ln (d) = 7.01 d= 1104.96 n= -0.750

GRAFICO

REGRESIÓN T= 500 años

620
560
500
440
Intensidad (mm/hr)

380
320
f(x) = 1104.95619751535 x^-0.75
260
R² = 1
200
140
80
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Duración (min)
I Vs. t Power (I Vs. t)
 200

Inte
140
80
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Duración (min)
I Vs. t Power (I Vs. t)
 Resumen de aplicación de regresión potencial
Periodo de Retorno (años) Término ctte. regresión (d) Coef. De regresión (n)

2 350.20 -0.750
10 593.37 -0.750
20 686.29 -0.750
25 715.76 -0.750
50 806.56 -0.750
100 896.69 -0.750
200 986.48 -0.750
500 1104.96 -0.750
Promedio = 767.54 -0.750

En funcion del cambio de variables, se realiza otra regresión potencia entre las columnas del periodo de retorno (T) y el término
constante de regresión (d), para obtener valores de la ecuación:

d  K T m
N° X Y LN(X) LN(Y) LN(X)*LN(Y) (LNX)^2
1 2 350.20 0.69 5.86 4.06 0.48
2 10 593.37 2.30 6.39 14.70 5.30
3 20 686.29 3.00 6.53 19.57 8.97
4 25 715.76 3.22 6.57 21.16 10.36
5 50 806.56 3.91 6.69 26.18 15.30
6 100 896.69 4.61 6.80 31.31 21.21
7 200 986.48 5.30 6.89 36.53 28.07
8 500 1104.96 6.21 7.01 43.55 38.62
SUMA = 8 907 6140.30 29.24 52.74 197.06 128.32

Ln(K) = 5.86
K= 351.79
m= 0.200

GRAFICO

2250
2150
Constante de Regresión d

2050
1950
1850
1750
1650
1550
1450
1350
1250
1150 f(x) = 351.785979553436 x^0.199653463325839
1050 R² = 0.948398768108029
950
850
750
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520
Período de Retorno (años)

d Vs. T Power (d Vs. T)

 CURVAS IDF
I: Intensidad de lluvia (mm/
Fórmula empleada: K T m
DONDE: T: Periodo de retorno (años)
I  t: Periodo de duración (min)
tn
K, m, n: Parametros de ajuste
Datos:
K= 351.79
m= 0.200
n= 0.75
TABLA DE DATOS / INTENSIDAD - DURACIÓN - FRECUENCIA

DURACION PERIODO DE RETORNO

EN MIN 2 10 20 25 50 100 200 500
5 120.82 166.61 191.34 200.06 229.75 263.85 303.01 363.84
15 53.00 73.09 83.94 87.76 100.79 115.75 132.93 159.61
30 31.52 43.46 49.91 52.18 59.93 68.82 79.04 94.91
45 23.25 32.06 36.82 38.50 44.22 50.78 58.31 70.02
60 18.74 25.84 29.68 31.03 35.63 40.92 47.00 56.43

TIEMPO DE CONCENTRACCIÓN Tc = 30.74 min

CURVAS IDF
700

650

600 2 AÑOS
10 AÑOS
550
20 AÑOS
500 25 AÑOS
450 50 AÑOS
INTENSIDAD(mm/hr)

100 AÑOS
400
200 AÑOS
350
500 AÑOS
300

250

200

150

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
TIEMPO(min)

I= 67.59 mm/horas
 CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MÁXIMO
METODO RACIONAL:
Formula a emplearse:
Q = 0.278*C*I*A
Datos:
C = Coef de escorrentia 0.07
I = Intendidad (mm/Hr) = 67.59
A = Area de la cuenca (km2) = 44.790

Calculo del coeficiente de escorrentia C:

COBERTURA PEDIENTE DEL TERRENO AREA DE

TIPO DE SUELO
VEGETAL >20% ( Pendiente = 0.5%) INFLUENCIA
Cultivos Semipermeables 0.45 20
Pastos, vegetación 0.40 30
ligera Semipermeables
Hierba, grama Semipermeables 0.35 35
Bosques, densa 0.30 15
vegetación Semipermeables

𝑪=(𝑨_𝟏∗𝑪_𝟏+𝑨_𝟐∗𝑪_𝟐+𝑨_𝟑∗𝑪_𝟑+𝑨_𝟒∗𝑪_𝟒)/(𝑨_𝟏+𝑨_𝟐+𝑨_𝟑+𝑨_𝟒 )

C= 0.07

Caudal máximo:
Q= 32.11 m3/seg