Outlook 2024

Investment Strategy · Private Clients

Foreword Regional outlook Asset classes

United States · Europe · Fixed income · Equities ·
Switzerland · United Currencies · Commodities
Kingdom · Japan · China ·
Emerging markets
ex China

p.02 p.09 p.25

Macro insights Asset allocation
Rate cuts at last Can “not too hot, not too
cold” continue?

p.03 p.19

November 2023 · 1st Half 2024

Biannual publication of
Lombard Odier Investment Solutions –
Strategy
Important information
Please read the important information
at the end of the document.
Data as of 13 November 2023
 Foreword

Michael Strobaek, Chief Investment Officer, Private Bank

Surprises abounded in 2023, from China’s underwhelming post-Covid

recovery to the strength of the US economy, the promise of artificial
intelligence (AI), and a no-show global recession. In 2024, investors will
face slowing global growth, restrictive monetary policy, and geopolitical
shifts. Yet we anticipate considerable investment opportunities from
peaking interest rate cycles, particularly in fixed income. We will
continue to weigh the impact of economic resilience and disinflation
against the delayed effects of high interest rates.

Our expectation for 2024 is that while recessionary risks remain, a

severe US downturn will be avoided. The absence of credit excess
among companies or households in the run-up to the rate-rising cycle
has helped shield growth and labour markets. The global economy
should benefit from rate cuts in the second half. Peaking yields and a
soft economic landing should constitute a positive environment for high
quality fixed income. They should also help support investor risk
appetite, corporate balance sheets, and equity markets.

Of course, we do not underestimate the risks ahead: from geopolitical

tensions and conflicts, volatile energy markets, US-China competition,
and a high-stakes US presidential election. The impact of restrictive
credit conditions must also be carefully monitored. High interest rates
and slowing growth question the sustainability of borrowing
commitments, in an era of high government debt levels. Volatility may
well spread beyond bond markets in 2024.

Such opportunities and challenges highlight the importance of a

rigorous investment approach, active management, and portfolio
diversification. Preserving and growing our clients’ wealth remains our
focus in a world that is changing faster than ever. Our house view, built
on thorough analysis of economics, financial markets, and geopolitical
dynamics, will continue to reflect developments, and evolving
opportunities.
Macro insights
Rate cuts at last
Samy Chaar, Chief Economist
The global economy defied
recession in 2023 in the face of
high interest rates.
We see below-trend growth as
the most likely scenario in 2024,
with falling inflation allowing
major central banks to
ease policy.
Please read the important information at the end of the document.
Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
Easing inflation, a gravity-defying US
economy, and a disappointing rebound
in China helped define 2023. One of the
fastest and most aggressive interest rate
hiking cycles in decades took a smaller
than expected toll on global growth and
jobs. We expect 2024 to be shaped by
cuts to interest rates, as well as changing
labour market and inflation dynamics,
and geopolitical and climate risks.
When will central banks cut rates?
Policy rates in the US and Europe have
peaked, we believe, and will be held at
restrictive levels in the months ahead.
On average, they have now risen by
around 400 basis points in developed
markets and higher in emerging ones,
pushing inflation down. While global
purchasing manager surveys suggest a
disinflationary trend continues, it has
slowed recently, partly due to higher
energy prices and a more sluggish
decline in the prices of services.
Of course, the full impact of high rates is
still uncertain. A deeper downturn in the
eurozone, or a sharp fall in US
employment, may lead to earlier cuts.
Alternatively, ongoing strength in the US
economy may see renewed wage growth
push up inflation; in Europe, rising
energy prices may do the same job (see
chart 1, page 04). On balance, we think
headline inflation should fall to between
2-3% in 2024 in many developed
economies (see chart 2, page 04), above
typical 2% inflation targets but enough
to facilitate rate cuts in the second half
in the US and mid-year in the eurozone.
Note: Unless otherwise stated, all data mentioned in this publication is based on the following
sources: Datastream, Bloomberg, Lombard Odier calculations.
Inflation and a global investment
boom
How far will rates be cut? The global
economy has changed since the last
cutting cycle in early 2020 (see chart 3,
page 05), including some factors that
suggest a slightly higher inflation rate.
Government spending has risen, in part
to fund green investments and redirect
supply chains. These long-term
transitions are driving a global capital
expenditure boom. Meanwhile, labour
markets are tight, amid lower migration
and workers ‘lost’ from the labour force
during the pandemic. Service-driven
economies have become less rate-
sensitive, one factor behind the US
economy’s remarkable performance to
date. The ‘neutral’ level of interest rates
for central banks – one that neither
drives nor restrains growth – may now be
higher (see chart 4, page 06)
Growth constrained, but
reaccelerating later in 2024
Examining the reasons behind 2023’s
economic resilience gives clues for the
trajectory in 2024. Slowing growth in
many countries has not yet led to a major
spike in unemployment. This could
reflect firms’ reluctance to lay off staff
after post-Covid shortages, or simply
more resilient demand. The latter helps
justify our hope for a soft landing for the
global economy. Some economies,
including those of Brazil, Chile, and
Poland, which raised rates earlier and
have now cut them, look to have
achieved this unlikely feat.
Page 03/36
Macro insights

1. Which macroeconomic force dominates?

Scenario analysis 2024

1. Continued disinflation 2. Second wave of inflation

Real rates impact > improving real incomes Improving real incomes > real rates impact

Strong domestic demand

Subpar US growth after strong Q3 (~1.5%)
(US growth above trend, ~3%)

After 2022 supply-side shocks, rising risks of 2024

Inflation continues to normalise (sub- 3%) demand-side secondary order effects
(sticky inflation ~4%)
or

Peak fed funds rate 5.5% then plateau until mid-2024 Fed gets ahead of the Fed reacts but stays
followed by a rate cut cycle towards neutral curve (>6.5% / 7%) behind the curve (≤ 6%)

Recession Mild stagflation to

Soft landing to mild recession
Hard landing inflationary boom

70% 10% 20%

probability probability probability

Source: Lombard Odier

2. Successful disinflation should allow central banks to adjust policy

Contribution to headline US CPI, key segments, in % year-on-year

10 8.7
Food and energy 8.0 8.3

8 Core goods 7.1

6.7
Shelter
5.8
6 Core services ex shelter 5.3
4.8
Headline CPI 4.0
Headline CPI (LO* forecasts) 3.5 3.3
4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5
2.1 1.9
2 1.2 1.2
0.3

-2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024
Sources: Bloomberg, * Lombard Odier calculations/forecasts

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Page 04/36 Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
 Moreover, central banks in China and Japan, the world’s
second and third largest economies, did not go through a
tightening cycle to weaken demand this time around. Even a
slowing Chinese economy should still expand by more than
4% in 2024, helping bolster global figures. Later in the year,
growth in major developed markets should also be helped by
rate cuts. Meanwhile, the high valuations of big technology
firms reflect hopes that AI will unleash rising productivity to
boost growth.
Yet after such aggressive monetary tightening, avoiding at
least a period of below-trend global growth looks improbable,
and recession looks possible. The US economy will slow in
2024. Signs of stress are evident in falling business
investment, small companies struggling to cover interest
payments, as well as commercial real estate, credit card, and
car loan delinquencies (see chart 5, page 06). Pandemic-era
savings are being depleted. Wages are now barely growing in
line with inflation. Rising interest payments are taking a
bigger bite out of household incomes, reaching levels not
seen in 15+ years. In the eurozone, where reliance on bank
lending is higher and mortgages refinanced more often, the
economy has been hit more quickly by higher rates and
should stage a limited rebound in 2024.
Politics back at the forefront: US elections
2024 is of course a US election year. Policy discourse will
become even more combative in a tight race for the White
3. Some key variables look different from a pre-pandemic world
Secular forces Secular forces
• Demographics: long-run trends driving increases
in longevity have been pushing up demand for
savings
• Slow productivity trend reducing investment
demand
• Global competition/optimisation of supply chains
• Income inequality increasing amount of global
savings
• Risk aversion: precautionary savings rose strongly
in aftermath of Asian crisis and Global Financial
Crisis
Please read the important information at the end of the document.
Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
House. It will be a difficult year for an incumbent President,
given headwinds from a slowing economy, rising joblessness,
and foreign policy, including the possibility of a protracted or
escalating conflict in the Middle East. The election will raise
questions about potential tax cuts, increases in protectionist
trade policy, support to Ukraine, and the sustainability of the
fiscal deficit. We see little immediate appetite among
Democrats or Republicans to tackle rising federal debt. There
is also broad consensus on maintaining a competitive and
adversarial China policy, and on the need to strengthen the
economy against perceived Chinese threats, including via
tariffs and restricted access to US technologies.
Risks to monitor: geopolitical and financial instability
Intensified global competition and conflict puts a strain on
policymakers’ capacities. Supply chains and investment flows
are being redrawn globally (see chart 6, page 06). US-China
tensions, including over Taiwan, Russia’s war with Ukraine,
and the Israel-Hamas conflict are all potent sources of risk,
where escalation could have a significant macroeconomic
impact. So far, the bond market has been more concerned
about interest rate risk. Falling bond prices sparked problems
at banks in March 2023, which could yet resurface. Defaults
on commercial property loans are another potential source of
vulnerability across a range of financial institutions. Slowing
growth also poses issues for the sustainability of government
finances, at a time when developed market public debt-to-
GDP levels have now exceeded post-World War II highs.
Recent evolutions secrof raluceS
• Rise in investment needs (climate/defence/supply
chains) & increased government appetite to run
fiscal deficits
• Productivity growth: incipient signs of pick-up
with possibility for stronger boost if AI dividend
materialises
• Trade fragmentation, expect some trade-offs in
supply chains from cost & efficiency to stability &
security
• Recovery from pandemic crisis much faster than
previous crises as policy response more
substantial
Source: Lombard Odier
Page 05/36
Macro insights

4. ‘Neutral’ rate may be higher than most pre-pandemic Interestingly, rising bond yields have not yet led to a sharp
estimates widening in credit spreads, or in the premium that companies
Policy rate expectations for major advanced economies
pay on their debt over sovereign yields. This has helped
6 contain defaults, bankruptcies, and in turn, job losses. If
5 investors start worrying more about credit risk, we may enter
BoE
a new and more troubling phase of the economic cycle. But
4
Fed fcst our base case remains that a limited deterioration in credit
3 BoE fcst conditions should continue to shield companies, jobs, and
2 Fed growth from a sharper slowdown.
ECB fcst
1
ECB SNB fcst
0
SNB
-1
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier calculations

5. Consumer credit card delinquencies versus savings rate

Delinquencies highest since 2012, savings rate lowest since 2008

8 30
USD 2.2 trn
7 excess savings
Mar 2020 to 25
6 Savings rate as % of Aug 2021
disposable income (r.h.s.**) 20
5
Credit card loan delinquencies
4 as % of outstanding credit card 15
loans (l.h.s.*)
3
10
2
5
1 Depletion of savings
Since Sept 2021
0 0
03.2010 03.2012 03.2014 03.2016 03.2018 03.2020 03.2022
* left hand scale, ** right hand scale
Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier calculations

6. Direct investment flows shifting dramatically

US-Mexico-Canada attracting more flows than China’s Asian
neighbours
800
* USMCA - United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement,
700 ASEAN 5 - Indonesia,
600 Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore and Thailand
500 USMCA*
400
300
China
200
India + ASEAN 5*
100
0
Japan
-100
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Page 06/36 Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
 engine.

The hummingbird is part

of a powerful natural engine,
essential for driving food production.
A key pollinator, it pollinates every
kind of tree from avocado to banana.
We need real assets solutions that invest
in the regeneration of the natural world
so pollinators can thrive.
Creating stronger crops,
more resilient supply chains and
more investment opportunities.
Nature is worth investing in.
Find out more at LombardOdier.com

Investments are subject to a variety of risks. This is a marketing communication. Lombard Odier invests in a number of sectors across a range of asset classes. Its investment strategies are not limited to climate, biodiversity and net-zero solutions
but also include hard-to-abate companies. The subject and image in this advert is intended for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect a current investment vehicle, instrument or product: it should not be understood as an invitation,
offer or a recommendation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Please refer to the prospectus, the KIID of LO Funds SICAV and your investment advisor before making any final investment decisions. Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. UK Branch
is authorised and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (‘CSSF’) in Luxembourg and is authorised in the UK by the Prudential Regulation Authority (‘PRA’). Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’)
and limited regulation by the PRA. Financial Services Firm Reference Number 597896. Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited - authorised and regulated by the FCA in the UK. ©2023 Lombard Odier
Regional outlook
United States

Europe

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Japan

China

Emerging markets ex China

Regional outlook

United States
Economy to slow in an election year
Samy Chaar, Chief Economist

Polling finds President Biden’s age a major weakness, while

Key takeaways
· Tight financial conditions should finally slow
consumption in 2024, leading growth below 1%. We
expect falling inflation to facilitate rate cuts in the
second half
· The 2024 Presidential race will be tight. Rising
unemployment, likely losses in the Senate, and a
protracted conflict in the Middle East could be
headwinds for incumbent Joe Biden
· We are watching geopolitical and financial risks
closely.
The delayed effects of tight monetary policy should slow the
US economy in 2024. Business investment is already
declining, and small firms are feeling the strain. Crucially,
consumption – which has been shielded from rate hikes to
date (see chart 7) – should slow, as rising interest payments
erode disposable incomes, pandemic-era savings dry up, and
wage growth falls below cost of living increases. We expect
unemployment to rise to 4% or more, and growth to fall
below 1% in 2024. Meanwhile, falling shelter costs should
lead headline inflation down to a 2-3% range. We expect the
Fed to make a first, 25 basis point (bps) cut around
September, and another by year-end.
2024 promises a tight Presidential race. Despite a welcome
fall in inflation, a slowing economy is likely to prove a
headwind for incumbent Joe Biden. The American public
already perceives it to be performing poorly. A protracted
conflict in the Middle East could also prove very damaging.
likely Republican candidate Donald Trump’s legal battles
and indictments could deter independent voters, even if they
rally his core supporters. Democrats could well lose the
Senate in 2024 (see chart 8), which would mean a split
Congress if a Democratic president were to be elected, while
Republicans could even score a three-fold House, Senate,
and White House win, with major implications for policy-
making. For now, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials look secure.
Most of their terms in office, including Chair Jerome Powell,
extend to 2026 or beyond.
With no political will on either side to tackle the rising fiscal
deficit, and credit conditions still tight, we will be watching
financial, as well as geopolitical, risks closely in 2024.
Barring any such big events, we expect a year of below-trend
growth, with scope for a gradual recovery after rate cuts.
Longer-term, high levels of public investment, the power of
the US consumer, and a world-leading technology sector
boosted by the promise of AI should see the US retain a
narrow growth advantage over other developed economies.

7. Rate hikes yet to take a toll on US consumers 8. Democrats face a challenging map for the Senate elections
Comparison of direct impact from rate hikes versus real Biden’s vote gap versus Trump in states holding 2024 Senate
devaluation of outstanding debt (in %) races, in percentage points
2 40
Positive impact from real devaluation
of long-term nominal debt 30

1 20
10
0
0
-10
-20
-1 -30 Democratic
Negative impact from
Independent
higher debt servicing costs -40
Net effect Republican
-2 -50
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
RI

MS
MD

MN
CA
VT

WA
NJ

WI

UT
VA

NV

OH

ND
WY
FL

IN
VT
MA
MD
HI
CA
NY
RI
CT
WA
DE
NJ
NM
VA
ME
MN
MI
NV
PA
WI
AZ
FL
TX
OH
MO
IN
MT
MS
NE
UT
TN
ND
WV
WY

2023 2023 2024 2024 2025 2025 2026 2026 2027 2027
Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier Sources: News reports, Bloomberg, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Page 10/36 Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
Europe
The costs of overtightening
Bill Papadakis, Senior Macro Strategist

contraction in the third quarter. The Transatlantic gap that

Key takeaways opened during the pandemic years owing to the
· The euro area’s peak policy rate this cycle looks higher outperformance of the US economy has widened further (see
than warranted, given inflation largely driven by chart 9).
imported energy costs As inflation falls rapidly and growth remains weak, evidence
· Both inflation and growth have slowed sharply, while of a policy mistake is now clear. The ECB’s October Bank
the full effects of monetary tightening have yet to be Lending Survey shows credit standards continuing to tighten
felt
and weak demand for new borrowing. Forward-looking
· We expect growth of just above 1% in 2024, helped by
indicators such as purchasing manager index (PMI) surveys
a resilient labour market and some monetary policy
suggest further near-term weakness (see chart 10).
easing from mid-year.
We think that by mid-2024, this poor growth-inflation mix
will present a compelling case for gradual policy easing. A
We believe that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hiking
more rapid pace may even be warranted: in the past, ECB
cycle is over. But the peak rate ended up being much higher
policy moves have had to be reversed quickly. Rate hikes
than we had thought at the outset of the cycle.
turned into rate cuts within four months in 2008, and again
Our initial expectation was for a meaningfully different ECB in 2011.
reaction to rising inflation from that of the Fed, given more
Falling inflation, a resilient labour market, the abating energy
evidence of a supply shock than a US-style demand boom.
shock, and monetary policy easing should help improve the
Sharp policy tightening did not seem warranted in a context
outlook somewhat in 2024, and we expect growth just above
where the energy shock was already generating a large real
1%. This may help narrow the gap with the US slightly, but
income loss across the continent and few signs of overheating
Europe’s legacy of policy mistakes is undoubtedly costly.
could be identified.
But the ECB delivered tightening similar in scale to that of the
Fed, raising the deposit rate by 450 basis points to 4% and
reducing its balance sheet.
Euro area inflation has been falling sharply over the past year
– before the full effects of policy tightening were felt – at a
speed comparable to its earlier rise. GDP has been subpar,
with virtually no growth over the past year, and a slight

9. A widening gap 10. Business surveys point to continued weakness

Evolution of GDP trajectories in euro area and US Euro area PMI surveys (readings above 50 indicate expansion)
(100 = January 2019)
115 70

110 US 65
Services
105 60
France
100 55
Germany
95 Italy 50

90 45
Spain
85 40

80 35 Manufacturing

75 30
03.2019 11.2019 07.2020 03.2021 11.2021 07.2022 03.2023 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Eurostat, Lombard Odier calculations Sources: Markit, Bloomberg, Lombard Odier calculations

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024 Page 11/36
Regional outlook

Switzerland
A well behaved economy
Bill Papadakis, Senior Macro Strategist

CHF 100 bn since mid-2022, with more than CHF 40 bn in

Key takeaways the third quarter of 2023 (see chart 12). The SNB’s balance
· Swiss inflation has been impressively contained this sheet has now shrunk by about a third and a strong franc has
cycle, helped by rate hikes and currency interventions limited imported inflation – a key variable for a small open
from the Swiss National Bank economy.
· We expect a slower pace of rate cuts in 2024 than in Some upside inflation risks lie ahead. Rents will be increasing
other developed economies
in line with the rise in the mortgage reference rate. A VAT
· Growth should remain subdued at around 1.3% in
increase from 7.7% to 8.1% is due to take effect at the start
2024.
of 2024, while electricity and transport prices will also rise.
These increases are likely to push the consumer price index
While the US economy has been exceptional in terms of back above 2% in the months to come. However, their
growth recently (see US section), the most exceptional one-off nature means they are unlikely to change the
advanced economy in terms of inflation this cycle was medium-term inflation outlook, and as such, are unlikely to
certainly Switzerland. push the SNB to hike rates again.
Headline inflation stood at 1.7% in October, having peaked The SNB raised rates at a slower pace than its counterparts in
at 3.5% in August 2022, over seven percentage points lower the euro area, US, or UK this cycle, and we also expect a
than the euro area’s peak inflation rate. slower pace of cuts, with the policy rate falling to 1% by early
Important structural features of the Swiss economy such as 2025 only. Gradually falling rates should help growth stage a
the favourable energy mix based on hydro and nuclear power limited rebound in 2024, to around 1.3%.
played a key role in keeping inflation lower than in
neighbouring economies (see chart 11). Crucially, though, we
think that an unusual turn in the policy stance of the Swiss
National Bank (SNB) also influenced this path.
In common with other countries, the policy rate was
increased, from -0.75% to a peak of +1.75%. The SNB also
deployed its balance sheet to great effect. Having
accumulated a large pile of foreign currencies over the
preceding decade, it now started to sell these reserves,
keeping the Swiss franc strong. Sales have exceeded

11. A notably smoother path for inflation in Switzerland 12. The SNB’s currency sales kept the franc strong, limiting
Consumer price inflation, year-on-year change (in percent) import price rises
Quarterly currency purchases by the SNB (in CHF bn)
12 60
UK
10 40

8
20
6 US
0
Euro area
4
-20
2

0 -40
Switzerland
-2 -60
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2022 Q1 2023

Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier Sources: SNB, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Page 12/36 Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
United Kingdom
Inflation receding, election coming into focus
Bill Papadakis, Senior Macro Strategist

The economy will still face downward pressure from tight

Key takeaways
· Inflation should moderate further in 2024, and growth
should see a limited rebound
· While the UK job market has become less flexible,
wage growth has now peaked, and the Bank of England
should be able to cut rates mid-year
· Labour would probably win a 2024 general election;
its policies are unlikely to rattle markets.
Anaemic growth and stubborn inflation characterised the UK
economy in 2023; in 2024, both should improve somewhat.
Falling inflation will ease the erosion of consumers’ real
incomes, and policy should start easing. We expect the first
interest rate cuts in the second half and some possible fiscal
loosening in the run-up to elections. But at around 1%,
growth will still be below-trend.
Until recently, the picture looked bleaker. Markets had
expected the Bank of England (BoE) to take the UK policy
rate to 6.5%, whereas 5.25% now looks to be the peak.
September inflation was the highest among developed
markets, but has since moderated, helped by the lowering of
a government cap on energy bills. We expect it to trend lower
amid a slowing economy and an easing in tight labour
markets. Job vacancies have been steadily declining for
months and unemployment is rising. A fall in headline
inflation into the 2-3% range should give the BoE scope to
cut rates, with a first cut likely around June.
monetary policy, and it will build up further as a high
proportion of fixed-rate mortgages (see chart 13) will also
reset onto higher rates. The UK’s growth potential has been
subdued versus other major economies in recent years,
although the government has taken steps to boost business
investment and productivity – including more tax relief for
loss-making companies and new machinery as well as
increased childcare support.
The UK must hold an election before the end of
January 2025, with autumn 2024 a likely date. Polling
suggests a victory for the opposition Labour Party is the most
likely outcome. This would likely not trouble markets. After
years under far left-leaning Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s current
leader Keir Starmer is far more moderate. He favours a closer
relationship with the EU, is unlikely to radically alter current
government spending plans, and seems committed to fiscal
discipline. We do think some tax increases would be likely
over a Labour term in office. Recent surveys suggest rising
public support for these (see chart 14) amid concerns over
the poor state of public services.

13. A high proportion of fixed rate mortgages 14. Some tax increases by a Labour government look possible
Distribution of mortgages by type of product Attitudes towards taxation and spending on health, education, and
social benefits 1982-2023 (in %)
100 70
Increase taxes and spend more
90 on health, education and social
60
benefits
80
70 50

60 40
50
30
40
Keep taxes and spending
30 20 on these services at the Reduce taxes and spend
Fixed rate, more than two years less on health, education
20 same level as now
Fixed rate, two years or less and social benefits
10
10 Floating rate
0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Sources: British Social Attitudes survey 2023,
Sources: Bank of England, Lombard Odier National Centre for Social Research, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024 Page 13/36
Regional outlook

Japan
The end of negative interest rates
Homin Lee, Senior Macro Strategist

These policy changes look manageable, although close

Key takeaways
· Japan’s growth will decelerate in 2024, but should still
produce another year of 2% average inflation
· We expect an end to the Bank of Japan’s negative interest
rate policy in 2024
· A falling approval rating creates uncertainties for Prime
Minister Fumio Kishida ahead of the Liberal Democratic
Party’s leadership contest, but removes the risk of a snap
election.
We expect another solid year for Japanese wage growth, and
average inflation of 2% in 2024. Labour demand in the
service sector is strong, and the confidence of workers and
their unions is rising. Indeed, the Japanese Trade Union
Confederation (JTUC) is guiding for a 5% raise in 2024
spring wage negotiations (see chart 15). Businesses have
maintained historically high profit margins despite higher
input and labour costs. For these reasons, we expect
consumption and business investments to anchor 2024
growth of 1.2%, even if the export contribution fades.
This context is supportive for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ)
continued policy normalisation, and we expect its first rate
hike in nearly two decades, from -0.1% to 0.0% (see
chart 16). We also expect a gradual end to its cap (or ‘yield
curve control’) on 10-year Japanese government bonds at
1%, especially now that the daily pledge to defend the cap
with unlimited purchases has been removed.
monitoring will be required for any unforeseen systemic
risks. Sovereign bond yields have not spiked despite the BoJ’s
new stance. Japan’s commercial banks have reduced their
holdings (although smaller banks and regional coops will still
be vulnerable), and Japanese pension funds have never had
large exposures. The BoJ will still face some constraints in
policy normalisation. To avoid losses from paying more on its
reserves than it makes in returns on its portfolios, the BoJ will
probably have to limit its rate hikes to 0.5% over this cycle.
Monetary policy normalisation will be motivated in part by a
new budget that requires JPY 13 trillion in fresh bond
issuance. The extension of energy subsidies to spring 2024
and income tax refunds starting in the summer will also
modestly boost consumption. The public response to these
policies has been surprisingly negative, however, with further
declines in Prime Minister Kishida’s approval rating. How he
manages in the lead-up to his party’s leadership contest in
2024 will be interesting to watch, but a near-term snap
election has become unlikely, which removes another
complicating factor for the BoJ’s plans.

15. Trade unions gear up for a new year of aggressive wage 16. Bank of Japan set to raise its short-term rate to 0% in 2024
negotiations BoJ policy rate, call rate, and swap market pricing, %
Wage negotiations, initial guidance from JTUC and final results, %
6 0.35
“Base up” or base-pay 5 5 Overnight call rate
0.30
5 Seniority-based increase Policy target rate
Initial guidance (JTUC) for total pay 0.25 Swap market pricing (7 Nov 2023)
4
raise 0.20 Lombard Odier forecast
4
0.15
3 0.10
2.12
0.05
2 0.69 0.44 0.48 0.54 0.56 0.50 0.63
0.55 0.00
-0.05
1 1.75
1.66 1.67 1.66 1.58 1.59 1.48 1.57 1.57 -0.10
0 -0.15
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Sources: Bloomberg, JTUC, Lombard Odier Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Page 14/36 Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
China
Short-term relief, long-term uncertainties
Homin Lee, Senior Macro Strategist

the fiscal impact of ageing. High debt levels could be

Key takeaways managed with a gradual restructuring, including a banking
· China’s near-term growth dynamic is improving thanks sector backstop and sustained positive inflation. The
to thawing consumer sentiment and supportive government could speed up financial liberalisation and
macroeconomic policies empower markets’ role in the allocation of economic
· Beijing has refrained from sending an aggressive resources.
structural reform signal
However, such reforms do not appear likely near term,
· Pro-growth measures are unlikely to have a lasting
possibly due to Beijing’s conservatism and other policy
impact unless they are combined with fundamental
priorities. The lifting of restrictions on residential rights of
reforms.
migrant workers in large cities has slowed, in part to spur the
development of poorer inland provinces. Attempts to raise
China’s economy is rebounding from an unexpected stalling the retirement age and introduce a property tax have been
in the second quarter. The household saving rate seems to be delayed after a public backlash. Currency stability is being
reverting to trend (see chart 17), and retail sales growth is prioritised over a more forceful and credible reflation
recovering, thanks to solid real income gains and supportive framework with a weaker currency, as Beijing explores a
macroeconomic policies. Crucially, officials have approved yuan-based global financing alternative to the US dollar.
additional deficit-financed spending at national and local
Without a compelling package of structural reforms, the
levels, including an extra 0.8% of GDP on infrastructure. We
widely held downbeat assessment on China’s long-term
now expect growth of 5.3% in 2023 and 4.7% in 2024 (see
prospects may be difficult to reverse. Additional market-
chart 18). Modest reflation to 2% is likely in 2024, helped by
friendly gestures are possible, from sporadic equity market
supportive monetary policy that will lead to an additional
support to a new diplomatic initiative to create limited
lowering of banks’ reserve requirement ratios.
détente with the US. These could boost market sentiment
These measures do not meaningfully alter the country’s temporarily but are unlikely to reverse a gradual growth
long-term outlook. Contrary to the prevailing pessimism, we decline to 2~3% in 10 years’ time.
note that reforms could improve this outlook. China’s
demographic ageing is close to its emerging market peers in
terms of speed. Its low urbanisation rate implies substantial
scope to boost medium-term growth by integrating more
workers into highly productive cities. Raising the retirement
age (currently 60 for men, lower for women) could mitigate

17. Thawing in Chinese households’ precautionary saving 18. Modest growth upgrade for 2023-2024 but no change in
Surveyed saving rate for households, %, four-quarter moving long-term assumptions
average China’s annual real GDP growth
35 12
Lombard Odier forecast (previous)
34 11
Lombard Odier forecast (latest)
10
33
9
32 China real GDP
8
31 7

30 6
5 Lombard Odier forecast for
29
4 2024-2033 average
28 3
27 2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024 Page 15/36
Regional outlook

Emerging markets ex China

Soft landing hopes
Homin Lee, Senior Macro Strategist

strong growth in 2023; Chile and Peru will likely emerge

Key takeaways from weak growth amidst interest rate cuts. Saudi Arabia and
· We see a ‘soft-landing’ scenario of slightly better growth the United Arab Emirates will likely see the most
and lower inflation in 2024 for emerging markets, conspicuous rebound if they raise oil output as we expect,
although individual experiences will vary assuming the Israel-Hamas conflict remains localised.
· Monetary policy easing will broaden beyond Latin EM monetary policy easing will likely broaden beyond select
American economies
Latin American economies. In the next 12 months, we see
· We expect the ruling parties to prevail in Indian and
nearly all major EM central banks cutting rates except
Mexican elections and confirm policy continuity.
Turkey, Taiwan, Thailand, and Malaysia (see chart 19). The
magnitude and duration will vary significantly, with Asia
Emerging markets (EM) outside China should achieve seeing the most gradual pace, to match the US, and Latin
slightly better growth with lower inflation in 2024. Many America enjoying larger easing. Not all the cuts will be fully
have already experienced a slowdown. Now that softening justified. Those in Poland and Colombia look somewhat
demand has helped stabilise inflation, policymakers can inappropriate given high underlying inflation.
contemplate moderately easier policy. Global food and
2024 will be busy politically. India, Indonesia, Mexico,
energy prices have been surprisingly resistant to intermittent
Taiwan, Egypt, and South Africa will hold elections to select
supply-related fears, and China’s weak inflation is anchoring
national leaders. We expect most of the election results to
goods price inflation at low levels. We are increasingly
broadly confirm policy continuity, adding support to the
confident that these trends will persist into mid-2024,
soft-landing story. Indian and Mexican elections will attract
bringing inflation closer to the desired range for many
global attention due to their economic importance and
inflation-targeting EM central banks.
ascendence as key friend-shoring beneficiaries. Taiwan’s
As regards individual countries, we see solid growth elections look unlikely to trigger a crisis in the Taiwan strait,
continuing for India and Indonesia. Although these countries but close monitoring will be warranted.
saw currency and bond market volatilities in 2023, a calming
global rate environment should help avoid similar difficulties
in 2024. More industrialised and trade-dependent
economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Poland will
rebound as the downturn in global merchandise trade begins
to fade. Brazil and Mexico are set for a soft landing after very

19. Rate cuts will broaden beyond Latin America in 2024

Policy rate changes year-to-date in 2023 and expected until end-2024, in percentage points

3
2 Change between 1 Jan and 3 Nov 2023
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Expected change
-4 until 31 Dec 2024

-5
-6
ia
Ind h Kore
a
wan onesi
a
ilan
d sia ine
s zil xic
o
Chi
le Per
u bia and ece chi
a ry ca
Tai lay lipp Bra Me om Pol Gre Cze nga h Afri
t Ind Tha Ma Phi Col Hu t
Sou Sou
Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Page 16/36 Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
 keystone.

The fig tree is a keystone species.

A home to over a thousand animals
that help regenerate forests.
We need real assets solutions
that recognise their value.
That's why fig trees must be planted
at the heart of the natural ecosystem.
Because when crops grow stronger,
yields grow stronger and investment
grows stronger.
Nature is worth investing in.
Find out more at LombardOdier.com

Investments are subject to a variety of risks. This is a marketing communication. Lombard Odier invests in a number of sectors across a range of asset classes. Its investment strategies are not limited to climate, biodiversity and net-zero solutions
but also include hard-to-abate companies. The subject and image in this advert is intended for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect a current investment vehicle, instrument or product: it should not be understood as an invitation,
offer or a recommendation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Please refer to the prospectus, the KIID of LO Funds SICAV and your investment advisor before making any final investment decisions. Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. UK Branch
is authorised and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (‘CSSF’) in Luxembourg and is authorised in the UK by the Prudential Regulation Authority (‘PRA’). Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’)
and limited regulation by the PRA. Financial Services Firm Reference Number 597896. Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited - authorised and regulated by the FCA in the UK. ©2023 Lombard Odier
Asset allocation
Asset allocation –
Can “not too hot, not too cold” continue?
Christian Abuide, Head of Asset Allocation
We expect growth to slow and
inflation to continue normalising
in 2024, with central banks
keeping rates at high levels in the
first half. Despite the risk of a
mild US recession and subpar
growth elsewhere in developed
markets, we see a comparatively
soft landing ahead.
We see attractive risk-reward in
high quality fixed income, and
maintain a neutral view on
equities, where we prefer the US,
Japan, and the UK.
The US dollar should remain
supported, and we expect
commodities to be torn between
tight supply and weak demand.
Please read the important information at the end of the document.
Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
A year of surprises
The US economy defied consensus
expectations of a recession in 2023,
while China’s economic recovery
disappointed and the EU weakened. If
anything, recent data in the US points to
accelerating strength in activity.
Headline inflation has moderated from
recent highs, but core measures remain
well above target across major
developed economies. As a result, the
long-awaited monetary policy pivot has
proved elusive. We have seen markets
price in rate-cut expectations a few
times over the last year, only to be met
with pushback by central banks that
maintain restrictive policy and stress
data dependency (see chart 20,
page 20).
These dynamics meant we saw no
meaningful mean reversion in 2023,
with areas of the market that seemed
expensive getting more expensive, while
the cheap got cheaper (see chart 21,
page 20). It also meant a larger than
usual degree of concentration in equity
returns (see chart 22, page 20).
Narrow path to a soft landing
Overall, markets remain caught between
higher-rates-for-longer and recession
fears. Our baseline view going into 2024
remains that US demand will slow,
pushing growth down, helping the
disinflationary process and allowing the
Fed to start cutting policy rates back to
neutral in the second half. But this is a
narrow path with risks on either side. A
material weakening of the US growth
engine would reignite fears of a global
recession, while too strong data might
mean additional rate hikes, keeping
stock and bond valuations under
pressure.
Historically, pauses in monetary policy
tightening cycles have tended not to last
long. In turn, the performance of equity
markets largely depended on the
subsequent trajectory of inflation and
particularly growth. When inflation was
under control and growth stabilised,
equities did well and policy rates did not
move much (e.g. 1995, 2006). When
inflation was problematic and/or
recession followed, equities suffered and
monetary policy changed more
dramatically, whether upwards or
downwards (e.g. 1981, 2000).
What does this mean for portfolios?
We maintain a neutral exposure to risk,
and to equities within multi-asset
portfolios, balancing the positives from
recent economic resilience and
disinflation, against the expected
delayed effects from higher borrowing
costs. Geopolitical fracturing will remain
an ongoing source of risk, with potential
cross-asset implications.
Equity markets typically deliver
positive returns in the late stages of
economic cycles, but volatility is a
common feature. The year before us
should be no different. We believe the
cumulative impact of rate hikes has yet
to be fully felt, and many of the factors
that have bolstered consumption and
economic activity are now waning.
Corporate valuations are in line with
their long-term averages, and earnings
revisions are showing signs of
improvement. The market envisages
Page 19/36
Asset allocation

20. Markets have priced in higher rates at various times since 2022
But now the peak seems to be in sight

140 6

130 5
120
S&P 500 (Jan 2021=100) (l.h.s.) 4
110
3
100
2
90
Hikes left to peak policy rates (as implied
1
80 by fed funds futures) (r.h.s.)

70 0

60 -1
01.2021 04.2021 07.2021 10.2021 01.2022 04.2022 07.2022 10.2022 01.2023 04.2023 07.2023 10.2023

Source: Bloomberg

21. US earnings dominance resulted in developed market equity outperformance

While composition changes weighed on emerging markets

180 3.00
160 2.75

140 MSCI Emerging Markets vs World 2.50

(Developed Markets), relative performance 2.25
120 (l.h.s.)
2.00
100
1.75
80
1.50
60 Relative price/earnings ratio (r.h.s.)
1.25
40 1.00
Average (r.h.s.)
20 0.75
0 0.50
06.2006 06.2008 06.2010 06.2012 06.2014 06.2016 06.2018 06.2020 06.2022

Source: Bloomberg

22. US equity performance has been highly concentrated

With the average stock not doing any better than elsewhere

125

120
MSCI USA

115
MSCI World ex USA, equally
weighted index
110

105

MSCI USA, equally

100 weighted index

95
01.2023 02.2023 03.2023 04.2023 05.2023 06.2023 07.2023 08.2023 09.2023 10.2023 11.2023

Source: Bloomberg

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Page 20/36 Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
strong earnings in 2024, consistent with 12% earnings
growth for the S&P 500, combined with rate cuts by the Fed.
Our baseline view is for fewer rate cuts and lower earnings
growth, along with some improvement in profit margins and
broadly unchanged valuation multiples. We thus see a 6%
gain in earnings per share as more likely, and reasonable
upside on equities in 2024 under our base case.
Outside of the US, which remains a core portfolio holding,
Japan and the UK present attractive growth and value
prospects, respectively. We retain a neutral view on emerging
market equities and small capitalisation stocks, despite
attractive valuations, while pressure from rates remains and
economic activity slows.
Within equity styles, we retain a preference for quality stocks,
which historically have done well relative to other ‘factors’
(e.g. value, growth, small-caps) in late-cycle expansions and
the subsequent slowdowns (see chart 23, page 22); as well as
for the typically defensive businesses found in consumer
staples.
Given our expectation that rate-hiking cycles have peaked,
we maintain an overweight bias to fixed income.
Government bond yields have reached levels not seen since
2007 and relative valuations mean high quality bonds are
becoming increasingly competitive alternatives to equities
(see chart 24, page 22). We also believe sovereign bonds can
once again offer diversification benefits from other asset
classes after a string of negative yearly returns. As global
growth slows, and policy rates remain restrictive in the
months ahead, we retain an overweight allocation to quality
fixed income, including US Treasuries and investment grade
credit (see chart 25, page 22). We maintain a neutral
duration stance for now, favouring medium-term bonds, and
see room to lengthen duration as rate cuts approach.
Better than expected economic data and attractive yields
have fuelled robust demand for credit. Given limited
issuance by companies, this demand has kept spreads – or the
premium they must pay above government debt – under
downward pressure, including for high yield names, despite
tighter funding conditions.
For high yield credit, the path for defaults is higher in most
scenarios. That path could be relatively swift in the event of a
recession, or more likely a long one in a soft landing. Tight
lending standards have been a key area of focus for us, given
their typically predictive power for credit growth, defaults,
and economic activity more broadly. We continue to prefer
investment grade and the higher end of the quality spectrum
within high yield, as the weight of tighter credit conditions
should be felt more strongly on lower-rated credit.
Within emerging markets, a few central banks have already
started rate cutting cycles, well ahead of their developed
market peers. If disinflation continues, there is room for
more cuts (see chart 26, page 23). Much depends on specific
Please read the important information at the end of the document.
Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
country dynamics, and we are most constructive on Latin
America, while still negative on Chinese sovereign bonds,
where yield differentials are not attractive and we see room
for currency weakness to persist.
In currencies, the timing and speed of adjustment in central
bank policy will be a key driver of performance in 2024. We
expect the US dollar to remain supported in the coming
months against other major developed market currencies
given its domestic economic growth and yield advantages
(see chart 27, page 23). Geopolitical risks add to the dollar’s
appeal as a safe haven of choice. Lower US yields and a
global growth recovery could eventually shift the dollar
lower, but this is likely a story for the second half.
We continue to favour the Swiss franc, have turned more
neutral on the euro, and remain cautious on sterling. For the
yen, an attractive valuation and an expected end to negative
interest rates in Japan might not be enough to trigger
meaningful gains without, and until, the Fed cuts rates
sharply. In emerging markets, a looser grip from China’s
central bank on currency interventions should see the yuan
resume its underperformance in 2024. Meanwhile we favour
the Brazilian real given high real rates, a valuation cushion,
and the economy’s strengthened trade and current account
position.
Commodities have led other assets in the second half of
2023 thanks to tight fundamentals, while the start of the
Israel-Hamas conflict led to upward moves in both oil and
gold. Under our base scenario where the conflict stays
localised, we see Brent crude oil trading in the range of
USD 80-90 per barrel in the first half of 2024, and
inventories remaining tight. Energy’s recovery is mostly
being supply-driven and the prices of other industrial
commodities may be capped in 2024 by China’s economic
weakness. For gold, the geopolitical risk premium seems well
reflected in the short run, with an eventual peak in real
interest rates and a weakening US dollar needed before we
would expect prices to move towards USD 2,100/oz by
mid-2024.
Real estate is a prime example of the financial pain inflicted
by higher interest rates, but we think there are somewhat
different dynamics, and prospects to keep in mind within the
asset class. Some areas are well supported by fundamentals,
e.g. a lack of supply (logistics and apartment buildings,
hotels) or valuations (Europe), while some remain
structurally challenged (the lower quality segment of the
office market, weaker developers). Overall, we think real
estate offers attractive return prospects and diversification
benefits to investors with a long-term horizon. The high
dispersion of returns we are seeing in markets also offers
opportunities for macro and trend-following hedge fund
strategies, and we continue to suggest an allocation here for
further portfolio diversification.
Page 21/36
Asset allocation

23. Given growth, inflation, and rates uncertainty…

… a quality approach in stock picking still makes sense

150

140

130

120 MSCI World - quality vs broad,

relative performance
110

100

90
01.2016 07.2016 01.2017 07.2017 01.2018 07.2018 01.2019 07.2019 01.2020 07.2020 01.2021 07.2021 01.2022 07.2022 01.2023 07.2023

Source: Bloomberg

24. Equities face competition in the short term

For total return investors

10%
Bloomberg US Treasury * Yield to worst is the minimum
9% Bloomberg US investment
index - yield to worst* yield investors could expect from
8% grade corporate bonds - a bond in a worst case scenario
yield to worst
7%
S&P 500 earnings yield
6%
5%
4%
3%
2% US Treasury bill 3-month yield
1%
0%
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Source: Bloomberg

25. Investment grade credit remains attractive

Yields on offer and spread over US Treasuries, in %

9
Global investment grade yield
8
Global investment grade spread over US Treasuries
7 All-in-yields are at back at global
6 financial crisis levels, despite
credit spreads about average
5
4
3
2
1
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Source: Bloomberg

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Page 22/36 Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
26. Tightening cycles in emerging markets are rolling over
Which bodes well for countries at the forefront of the rate-cutting trend

60%
More EM central banks raising rates
40%

20%

0%

-20%
Net % of emerging markets where
-40% last central bank move was hike vs
cut, shown as six-month moving
-60% average (sample = 24 markets)
More EM central banks cutting rates
-80%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Source: Bloomberg

27. Ongoing US exceptionalism could support US dollar

Consensus 2024 GDP forecasts (minus forecast made in mid-2023)

0.4

0.3

0.2
US US still looking exceptional on
0.1 2024 GDP revisions (mildly USD
positive)
0.0

-0.1

-0.2 Euro area

China
-0.3

-0.4
06.2023 06.2023 07.2023 07.2023 08.2023 08.2023 09.2023 09.2023 10.2023 10.2023 11.2023 11.2023 12.2023

Sources: Bloomberg, national/regional statistics agencies, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024 Page 23/36
Asset classes
Fixed income

Equities

Currencies

Commodities
Asset classes

Fixed income
A focus on quality
Cyril Caillault, Senior Portfolio Manager

In credit, we favour the global investment grade segment,

Key takeaways
· We believe the Fed and ECB have completed their
monetary tightening cycles and we expect them to
keep short term rates at current levels for the first half
of 2024
· In light of the expected upcoming growth slowdown,
we like investment grade credit
· We also favour emerging market local currency debt,
especially that of Brazil where the monetary cycle is
well advanced.
The US consumer has been extremely resilient in 2023. The
health of the US economy contrasts with headwinds in
Europe, including stickier inflation and lower growth, while
China is still managing the fallout from the biggest real estate
crisis of its history. Heightened geopolitical risks continue to
weigh on market sentiment and global growth expectations.
This environment should favour high quality fixed income
over the riskier part of the credit spectrum.
In sovereign bonds, our base case scenario assumes lower
yields in twelve months’ time (3.75% for 10-year US
Treasuries and 2.5% for 10-year German Bunds), despite
room for an overshoot of current levels in the near term.
However, we believe the effects of higher rates will gradually
slow the US economy and provide room for sovereign bonds
to outperform, especially amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Thus, we expect yields to decline as markets start pricing in
policy easing over the next 12 months.
which we expect to benefit from falling interest rates and
broadly stable spreads. In high yield, absent a sharp recession
in 2024, the all-in yields on offer look increasingly attractive.
However, spreads, or the premium paid, do not reflect a
potential recession scenario or geopolitical risks (see
chart 28). The spectre of a higher peak in interest rates for a
longer period has also revived concerns of refinancing risk, at
a time when refinancing needs are rising, so we prefer the
higher quality end of high yield credit.
The landscape for emerging market debt remains mixed.
Global inflation is gradually receding, but the
macroeconomic environment is still a challenging blend of
tight external financing conditions, domestic monetary
policy constraints, inflationary pressures (albeit normalising),
growth uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and volatile
commodity prices. On both fundamental and valuation
grounds, emerging market local currency bonds look more
attractive than hard currency equivalents, where credit
spreads do not fully account for fundamental risks. We favour
local markets that offer attractive yields, such as Brazil (see
chart 29) and exercise caution in local markets with lower
carry, such as China.

28. High yield spreads may not adequately reflect recession 29. Brazil offers attractive yields
risks

2 000 16
1 800 14
Brazil 10yr
1 600 Average spread
excluding 2008: 12
1 400
803 bps Average global high yield
10
1 200 spread during the last three
1 000 US recessions: 920 bps 8
800 6
600 524 US 10yr
4
400
200 2 China 10yr
0 0
23.08.2000 23.08.2005 23.08.2010 23.08.2015 23.08.2020 30.12.2022 30.03.2023 30.06.2023 30.09.2023

Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Page 26/36 Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
Equities
Positive earnings growth to underpin upside
Edmund Ng, Head of Equity Strategy

will exert downward pressure on price to earnings ratios, but

Key takeaways
· We see around 5-10% upside for US equities, driven
by earnings growth
· We prefer US and UK over European and Chinese
equities on a three- to six-month horizon
· We believe communication services and energy will
outperform in the first half, and prefer consumer
staples and telecoms over healthcare, real estate, and
utilities among defensive sectors.
While major markets have risen in 2023 to date, the volatile
macroeconomic and geopolitical environment and high level
of performance concentration around a handful of US
mega-cap stocks have made the year a challenging one for
active investors.
We assess equity markets via a ‘four-pillar’ framework,
looking at macroeconomics, earnings, technical and
valuation factors. We continue to see good support from a
technical perspective for the S&P 500, which has regained its
moving averages after a summer correction. The incipient
weakness in the US dollar and short-term yields, together
with the robust behaviour of credit spreads, suggest that the
market could remain in a ‘risk-on’ mode in the coming
months.
While corporate revenue growth will slow amid decelerating
economic activity, we expect margins to remain resilient.
This should lead to positive earnings growth for most equity
markets in 2024 (see chart 30). We believe slower growth
potential interest rate cuts in the second half will provide
some support, resulting in broadly unchanged valuation
multiples.
We see plausible upside and downside scenarios in addition
to our base case. On the optimistic side, manufacturing
activities are stabilising at weak levels and could start to
recover, as some leading indicators suggest. This could lead
to margin expansion and strong earnings growth, and in this
scenario, we see approximately 15-20% upside for the
S&P 500 by end 2024 (see chart 31). Conversely, the
cumulative effect of monetary tightening could finally push
the economy and corporate earnings into recession, the latter
defined as a 20% contraction, as was widely expected at the
beginning of 2023. In this pessimistic scenario, we believe
price to earnings multiples would rise moderately in
anticipation of an economic recovery, but that the S&P 500
would end 2024 at around 3,750.
Overall, we retain a neutral stance on equities versus our
internal benchmark. We prefer US over European markets,
and the UK over China. From a sector perspective, we like
energy, consumer staples, and communication services, and
suggest underweight positions in real estate, utilities, and
healthcare.

30. S&P 500 earnings by December 2024 under different 31. S&P 500 levels by December 2024 under different
scenarios scenarios

300 6 000
Optimistic (30% probability) 281.0
Base case (50% probability) 5 181
250 5 000 4 834
Pessimistic (20% probability) 242.5
S&P 500 4 720
200 4 000
3 743
174.6
150 3 000

100 2 000
Pessimistic (30% probability)
S&P 500 last 12 months Base case (50% probability)
50 1 000
earnings per share Probability weighted
Optimistic (20% probability)
0 0
01.12.2009 01.12.2012 01.12.2015 01.12.2018 01.12.2021 01.12.2024 01.12.2019 01.01.2021 01.02.2022 01.03.2023 01.04.2024

Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024 Page 27/36
Asset classes

Currencies
Dollar strength to hold up in the first half
Kiran Kowshik, Global Currency Strategist

Back in 2011, this divergence – a weak dollar and weak

Key takeaways global growth – was also resolved in favour of a stronger
· The euro is likely to touch the bottom of a 1.00-1.10 dollar. However, in the second half of 2024, more
range against the US dollar in the first half of 2024 reflationary macro policies from China could turn the tide
· Lower US yields and a global growth recovery could and support global growth, leading to a clearer dollar
eventually shift the dollar lower later in the year depreciation trend developing later in the year.
· We favour the Brazilian real for carry and stay cautious
In the second half of 2023, China’s central bank intervened
on the Chinese yuan.
to stem yuan depreciation, but a looser policy grip should see
the yuan’s underperformance resume. Meanwhile, the
Following a period of strong US growth, we think US Japanese yen could perform well in a US hard landing
economic outperformance may narrow, leading to some scenario that results in a sharp Fed cutting cycle, though in
consolidation in the US dollar over 2024. Still, we see no easy our base case of a US soft landing, gains will likely be
path to sustained dollar depreciation. If the US manages a measured over the first half of 2024, even if the BoJ begins
soft landing but growth elsewhere remains relatively rate hikes. Finally, we believe select high yield ‘carry’
sluggish, it is likely that any Fed easing cycle will be preceded currencies can perform well as long as the US continues to
by easing from other global central banks, keeping the dollar avoid a hard landing scenario. We favour the Brazilian real,
as a relative high yielder (see chart 32). If US growth slows given its high real rates, attractive valuation, and decent
sharply, it will likely weigh on growth prospects outside the trade and current account balances.
US, potentially driving up demand for haven investments,
including the dollar. The current configuration of high US
yields and sluggish global growth may stay with us in the
months ahead, keeping the dollar supported towards the top
of recent ranges. This would see the euro moving towards the
bottom of a 1.00-1.10 range against the dollar in the first
half.
At the moment, growth outside the US remains soft. This has
tended to coincide with a stronger dollar (see chart 33), with
the only exception being the Covid-19 shock in 2020, where
the US eased macro policies much more than other countries.

32. High US yields and weak global growth support US dollar 33. The dollar appears weak relative to sluggish global
growth

1 120 -8 25%
USD high yielder + slow global economy Weak global Global PMI* manufacturing Strong USD
USD low yielder + strong global economy -6 PMI ex-USA (positive = expansion, 20%
110 negative = contraction)
Dollar index level (r.h.s.) -4 (l.h.s., inverse 15%
100 scale)
-2 10%

0 90 0 5%

2 0%
80
4 Dollar index -5%
70 YoY(r.h.s.)
6 Strong -10%
global PMI Weak USD
-1 60 8 -15%
01.1998 11.2001 09.2005 07.2009 05.2013 03.2017 01.2021 11.2024 01.2005 01.2008 01.2011 01.2014 01.2017 01.2020 01.2023
* Purchasing Managers Indices
Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Page 28/36 Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024
Commodities
Macroeconomic and geopolitical tail risks
Jianwen Sun, Quantitative Investment Strategist

unlikely to increase production meaningfully unless a

Key takeaways notable supply shock happens. We see Brent crude trading in
· A tight balance in oil markets will be challenged by the range of USD 80-90 per barrel in the first half of 2024
global growth and geopolitical events with moderate downside risks in the first quarter.
· Copper prices will trade range-bound until the arrival Demand for copper in 2024 will likely moderate as global
of further catalysts growth cools, but Chinese demand should hold up well in the
· The end of the rate-hiking cycle and a weakening US
first half thanks to Beijing’s continued support for green
dollar should see gold reach USD 2,100 per ounce in
investments. In the short term, we see copper prices trading
2024.
around USD 8,000 per metric ton. Longer-term, we see
prices rising on the back of low inventories, underinvestment
Commodities’ price performance has exceeded that of other in the industry, and rising demand due to its role in
assets in the second half of 2023, thanks to tight renewable technologies.
fundamental conditions and geopolitical uncertainties, with
Gold prices spiked after the start of the Israel-Hamas war, as
oil prices the primary driver. Copper has continued to
investors sought haven assets. Our proprietary model (see
trade-range bound despite resilient demand in China. Gold
chart 35) indicates that real interest rates and the US dollar
fell significantly amid rising bond yields and a stronger US
drove gold returns until the start of this conflict. An eventual
dollar, until the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
peak in real interest rates and a weakening US dollar should
Oil markets tightened significantly in the third quarter of continue to support gold demand through the first half of
2023 amid record high global demand as well as Saudi 2024. We see prices reaching USD 2,100 per ounce towards
Arabia and Russia’s extension of their voluntary production mid-year.
cuts (see chart 34). Volatility rose with the Israel-Hamas war
but has not led to sustained high oil prices, in the absence of
any impact on global oil supply. Our base scenario sees the
conflict remaining localised, and we see the oil market
returning to a tight balance in the remainder of 2023 and
first half of 2024. Supply growth from producers who are not
part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries and key non-members (OPEC+) will likely meet
most of the growth in global demand; OPEC+ countries are

34. A tight oil market 35. Rates and currency movements drove gold until the start
Supply, demand, and inventories of crude oil of the Israel-Hamas war
Gold returns, as calculated using our pricing model
Mb/d Mn bbl
105 4 000 12
Global inventory (r.h.s.) Gold
3 900 8
100
3 800
4
Consumption (l.h.s.) 3 700
95 Production (l.h.s.) 0
3 600
-4
90 3 500
-8
3 400
85 Rates
3 300 -12 Currency movements Risk & uncertainties Economic
Other Momentum & market sentiment
80 3 200 -16
01.01.2017 01.06.2018 01.11.2019 01.04.2021 01.09.2022 01.01.2022 01.06.2022 01.11.2022 01.04.2023 01.09.2023

Sources: Bloomberg, Kpler, Lombard Odier calculations Sources: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier calculations

Please read the important information at the end of the document.

Lombard Odier · Investment Strategy – Private Clients · Outlook 2024 Page 29/36
 pesticide.

The ladybird acts as a natural pesticide.

That's why we need real assets solutions
that create diverse habitats,
providing natural environments where
pest-controlling species can thrive.
This leads to a more resilient crop,
higher yields.
And stronger investment potential.
Nature is worth investing in.
Find out more at LombardOdier.com

Investments are subject to a variety of risks. This is a marketing communication. Lombard Odier invests in a number of sectors across a range of asset classes. Its investment strategies are not limited to climate, biodiversity and net-zero solutions
but also include hard-to-abate companies. The subject and image in this advert is intended for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect a current investment vehicle, instrument or product: it should not be understood as an invitation,
offer or a recommendation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Please refer to the prospectus, the KIID of LO Funds SICAV and your investment advisor before making any final investment decisions. Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. UK Branch
is authorised and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (‘CSSF’) in Luxembourg and is authorised in the UK by the Prudential Regulation Authority (‘PRA’). Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’)
and limited regulation by the PRA. Financial Services Firm Reference Number 597896. Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited - authorised and regulated by the FCA in the UK. ©2023 Lombard Odier
Important information
This is a marketing communication issued by Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd (hereinafter “Lombard Odier”). It is not intended for
distribution, publication, or use in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be unlawful, nor is it aimed at any
person or entity to whom it would be unlawful to address such a marketing communication.
This marketing communication is provided for information purposes only. The contents of this marketing communication have not
been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction. It does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to subscribe,
purchase, sell, or hold any security or financial instrument. It contains the opinions of Lombard Odier, as at the date of issue. These
opinions and the information contained herein do not take into account an individual’s specific circumstances, objectives, or
needs. No representation is made that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for individual circumstances, or
that any investment or strategy constitutes personalised investment advice to any investor. Tax treatment depends on the
individual circumstances of each person and may be subject to change in the future. Lombard Odier does not provide tax advice.
Therefore, you must verify the above and all other information provided in the marketing communication or otherwise review it with
your external tax advisors. Some investment products and services, including custody, may be subject to legal restrictions or may not
be available worldwide on an unrestricted basis.
The information and analysis contained herein are based on sources considered reliable. Lombard Odier uses its best effort to ensure
the timeliness, accuracy, and comprehensiveness of the information contained in this marketing communication. Nevertheless, all
information and opinions as well as the prices, market valuations, and calculations indicated herein may change without notice.
Investments are subject to a variety of risks. Before entering into any transaction, an investor should consult his/her investment
advisor and, where necessary, obtain independent professional advice in respect of risks, as well as any legal, regulatory, credit, tax,
and accounting consequences. Past performance is no guarantee of current or future returns, and the investor may receive back
less than he/she invested. The value of any investment in a currency other than the base currency of a portfolio is subject to foreign
exchange rate risk. Exchange rates may fluctuate and adversely affect the value of the investment when it is realised and converted
back into the investor’s base currency. The liquidity of an investment is subject to supply and demand. Some products may not have a
well-established secondary market or in extreme market conditions may be difficult to value, resulting in price volatility and making it
difficult to obtain a price to dispose of the asset.
European Union Members: This marketing communication has been approved for use by Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. in
Luxembourg and by each of its branches operating in the following territories: Belgium: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. • Belgium
branch; France: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. • Succursale en France; Italy: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. • Italian branch; Spain:
Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. • Sucursal en España. Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. is a credit institution authorised and regulated by the
Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) in Luxembourg.
In addition, this marketing communication has also been approved for use by the following entity domiciled within the European
Union: Spain: Lombard Odier Gestión (España) S.G.I.I.C., S.A.U., an investment management company authorised and regulated by
the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV), Spain.
Hong Kong: This marketing communication is distributed in Hong Kong by Lombard Odier (Hong Kong) Limited, a licensed
corporation registered by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) to carry on Type 1, Type 4 and Type 9
regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (“SFO”) in Hong Kong.
Singapore: This marketing communication is distributed in Singapore by Lombard Odier (Singapore) Ltd for the general information
of accredited investors and other persons in accordance with the conditions specified in Sections 275 and 305 of the Securities and
Futures Act (Chapter 289). Recipients in Singapore should contact Lombard Odier (Singapore) Ltd, an exempt financial adviser under
the Financial Advisers Act (Chapter 110) and a merchant bank regulated and supervised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, in
respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this marketing communication. The recipients of this marketing
communication represent and warrant that they are accredited investors and other persons as defined in the Securities and Futures Act
(Chapter 289). This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Panama: This marketing communication has been approved for use in Panama by Lombard Odier (Panama) Inc., an entity authorised
and regulated by the Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores de Panamá. Licensed to operate as an Investment Adviser. Res. SMV
No.528-2013.
Israel: This marketing communication has been approved for use in Israel by the Israel Representative Office of Bank Lombard Odier
& Co Ltd, an entity not supervised by the Supervisor of Banks in the Bank of Israel, but by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory
Authority, which supervises the activities of Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd.
South Africa: This marketing communication has been approved for use in South Africa by the South Africa Representative Office of
Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd, an authorised financial services provider. Registration number 48505.
Switzerland: This marketing communication has been approved for use in Switzerland by Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd, a bank and
securities firm authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).
United Kingdom: This marketing communication has been approved for use in the United Kingdom by Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A.
• UK Branch, a bank authorised and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (‘CSSF’) in Luxembourg and
authorised in the UK by the Prudential Regulation Authority (‘PRA’). Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’)
and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Financial Services Firm Reference Number 597896. Details about
the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulation by the Financial Conduct
Authority are available from us on request.
United States: Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent to, taken into, or distributed in the United States of America,
any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction, or to or for the benefit of a United States Person. For this
purpose, the term “United States Person” shall mean any citizen, national, or resident of the United States of America; any partnership
organised or existing in any state, territory, or possession of the United States of America;any corporation organised under the laws
of the United States or of any state, territory, or possession thereof; or any estate or trust that is subject to United States Federal
income tax regardless of the source of its income.
This marketing communication may not be reproduced (in whole or in part), transmitted, modified, or used for any public or commercial
purpose without the prior written permission of Lombard Odier.
Data protection: You may be receiving this communication because you have provided us with your contact details. If this is the case,
note that we may process your personal data for direct marketing purposes. If you wish to object to this processing, please address your
objection to the Group’s Data Protection Officer: Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd, Group Data Protection Officer, 11, Rue de la
Corraterie, 1204 Geneva, Switzerland. E-Mail: group-dataprotection@lombardodier.com. For more information on Lombard Odier’s
data protection policy, please refer to www.lombardodier.com/privacy-policy.
© 2023 Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd – all rights reserved. Ref. LOCH/LOESA/LOASIA-GM-en-032023.
SWITZERLAND
GENEVA
Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd1
Rue de la Corraterie 11 · 1204 Genève · Suisse
geneva@lombardodier.com
Lombard Odier Asset Management (Switzerland) SA
Avenue des Morgines 6 · 1213 Petit-Lancy · Suisse
Support-Client-LOIM@lombardodier.com
Management Company regulated by the FINMA.
FRIBOURG
Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA · Bureau de
Fribourg1
Rue de la Banque 3 · 1700 Fribourg · Suisse
fribourg@lombardodier.com
LAUSANNE
Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd1
Place St-François 11 · 1003 Lausanne · Suisse
lausanne@lombardodier.com
VERBIER
Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA · Bureau de
Verbier1
Route de Verbier Station 53 · 1936 Verbier · Suisse
verbier@lombardodier.com
VEVEY
Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA · Agence de Vevey1
Rue Jean-Jacques Rousseau 5 · 1800 Vevey · Suisse
vevey@lombardodier.com
ZUG
Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd · Zug Agency1
Baarerstrasse 52 · 6302 Zug· Schweiz
ZURICH
Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd1
Utoschloss · Utoquai 29-31 · 8008 Zürich · Schweiz
zurich@lombardodier.com
EUROPE
BRUSSELS
Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · Belgium branch2
Avenue Louise 81 · Box 12 · 1050 Brussels · Belgium
brussels@lombardodier.com
Credit institution supervised in Belgium by the National Bank
of Belgium (NBB) and the Financial Services and Markets
Authority (FSMA). RPM Bruxelles 0500.864.745.
LONDON
Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · UK Branch2
Queensberry House · 3 Old Burlington Street · London
W1S 3AB · United Kingdom
london@lombardodier.com
The Bank is authorised in the UK by the Prudential Regulation
Authority (‘PRA’). Subject to regulation by the Financial
Conduct Authority (‘FCA’) and limited regulation by the
Prudential Regulation Authority. Financial Services Firm
Reference Number 597896. Details about the extent of our
authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation
Authority and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority
are available from us on request.
Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe)
Limited
Queensberry House · 3 Old Burlington Street · London
W1S 3AB · United Kingdom
london@lombardodier.com
Investment firm authorised and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority (FCA register No. 515393).
1
Private bank and securities firm authorised and regulated
by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority
(FINMA).
2
Branch of Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A., a credit
institution based in Luxembourg, authorised and regulated
by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier
(CSSF) in Luxembourg.
LUXEMBOURG
Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A.
291, route d’Arlon · 1150 Luxembourg · Luxembourg
luxembourg@lombardodier.com
Credit institution authorised and regulated by the Commission
de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) in Luxembourg.
Lombard Odier Funds (Europe) S.A.
291, route d’Arlon · 1150 Luxembourg · Luxembourg
luxembourg@lombardodier.com
MADRID
Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · Sucursal en España2
Paseo de la Castellana 66 · 4a Pl. · 28046 Madrid ·
España · madrid@lombardodier.com
Credit institution supervised in Spain, by the Banco de España
and the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV).
Lombard Odier Gestión (España) S.G.I.I.C, S.A.U.
Paseo de la Castellana 66 · 4a Pl. · 28046 Madrid ·
España · madrid@lombardodier.com
Management Company supervised by the Comisión Nacional
del Mercado de Valores (CNMV).
MILAN
Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · Succursale in Italia2
Via della Spiga 30 · 20121 Milano · Italia
milano-cp@lombardodier.com
Credit institution supervised in Italy by the Commissione
Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) and la Banca
d’Italia.
PARIS
Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · Succursale en
France2
8, rue Royale · 75008 Paris · France. RCS PARIS
B 803 905 157 · paris@lombardodier.com
Credit institution supervised in France by the Autorité de
contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (ACPR) and by the Autorité
des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in respect of its investment
services activities. Business permit No. 23/12. Registered in
Luxembourg No. B169 907. Insurance intermediary
authorised by the Commissariat aux Assurances (CAA)
No. 2014 CM002. The registration with the CAA can be
verified at www.orias.fr.
AFRICA | AMERICAS | MIDDLE EAST
ABU-DHABI
Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd · Abu Dhabi Global
Market Branch
Al Maryah Island · Abu Dhabi Global Market Square ·
Al Khatem Tower · 8th floor · P.O. Box 764646 ·
Abu Dhabi · United Arab Emirates
abudhabi@lombardodier.com
Arranging Deals in Investments · Advising on Investment or
Credit · Arranging Credit. Regulated by the ADGM Financial
Services Regulatory Authority.
BERMUDA
Lombard Odier Trust (Bermuda) Limited
3rd Floor, Victoria Place · 31 Victoria Street · Hamilton
HM 10 · Bermuda · bermuda@lombardodier.com
Licensed to conduct Trust, Investment and Corporate Service
Provider Business by the Bermuda Monetary Authority.
WWW.LOMBARDODIER.COM
BRASIL
Lombard Odier (Brasil) Consultoria de Valores
Mobiliários Ltda.
Avenida 9 de Julho No. 3624, 6° andar Jardim Paulista ·
CEP 01406-000 · São Paulo · Brasil
sao.paulo.office@lombardodier.com
Authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Brazil
(BACEN) as Representative office of Bank Lombard Odier & Co
Ltd & Supervised by the Brazilian Securities Commission as
Investment Advisor.
DUBAI
Lombard Odier (Middle East) Ltd
Dubai International Financial Center · The Gate
Building, Level 13 · Office 1301 & 1304 · P.O. Box
507035 · Dubai · United Arab Emirates
dubai@lombardodier.com
Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.
ISRAEL
Israel Representative Office ·
Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd
Alrov Tower 11th floor · 46 Rothschild Blvd. · Tel Aviv
6688312 · Israel · telaviv@lombardodier.com
Not supervised by the Bank of Israel, but by Swiss Financial
Market Supervisory Authority which supervises the activities of
Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd.
PRETORIA
South Africa Representative Office ·
Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd
1st floor · Block B · The Village Office Park ·
309 Glenwood Road · Faerie Glen · Pretoria 0081 ·
South Africa · pretoria@lombardodier.com
Authorised financial services provider Registration
number 48505.
NASSAU
Lombard Odier & Cie (Bahamas) Limited
Lyford Cay House · Western Road · P.O. Box N-4938 ·
Nassau · Bahamas · nassau@lombardodier.com
Supervised by the Central Bank of the Bahamas and the
Securities Commission of the Bahamas.
ASIA - PACIFIC
HONG KONG
Lombard Odier (Hong Kong) Limited
1601 Three Exchange Square · 8 Connaught Place ·
Central · Hong Kong · hongkong@lombardodier.com
A licensed entity regulated and supervised by the Securities and
Futures Commission in Hong Kong.
SINGAPORE
Lombard Odier (Singapore) Ltd.
9 Raffles Place · Republic Plaza #46-02 · Singapore
048619 · singapore@lombardodier.com
A merchant bank regulated and supervised by the Monetary
Authority of Singapore.
TOKYO
Lombard Odier Trust (Japan) Limited
Izumi Garden Tower 41F · 1-6-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku
· Tokyo 106-6041 · Japan · tokyo@lombardodier.com
Regulated and supervised by the Financial Services Agency
(FSA) in Japan. It holds a trust business license (FSA No. 208)
and is registered with Kanto Local Finance Bureau for
Financial Instruments Business Operator (No. 470).
Ref.: 10.2023
www.lombardodier.com