ETENCA

TIME SERIES
Of the most important tasks before economists and businessmen these days is to make estimates for the future. For
example, a businessman is interested in finding out his likely sales in the year 2008 or as a long-term planning in 2020 or
the year 2030 so that he could adjust his production accordingly and avoid the possibility of either unsold stocks or
inadequate production to meet the demand. Similarly, an economist is interested in estimating the likely population in the
coming year so that proper planning can be carried out with regard to food supply, jobs for the people etc. However the
first step in making estimates for the future consists of gathering information from the past. In this connection one usually
deals with statistical data which are collected, observed or recorded at successive intervals if time. Such data are generally
referred to as time series. Thus when we observe numerical data at different points of time the set of observations is
known as time series. For example, if we observe production, sales population, imports, exports etc, at different points of
time, say over the last 5 or 10 years, the set of observations formed shall constitute time series. Hence in the analysis of
time series, time is the most important factor because the variable is related to time which may be either year, month,
week, day, hour or even minutes or seconds.

A few definitions of time series are given below:

1:- A time series is a set of statistical observations arranged in chronological order.
2:- A time series consist of statistical data which are collected, recorded and observed over successive increments of
time.
3:- A time series may be define as a collection of magnitudes belonging to different time periods of some variable or
composite of variables, such as production of steel, per capital income, gross national product, price of tobacco, or index
of industrial production/
4:- When quantitative data are arranged in the order of their occurrence, the resulting statistical series is called a time
series.
5:- A time series is a set of observations taken at specified times, usually at equal intervals. Mathematically a time
series is defined by the values Y1, Y2. Of a variable Y ( temperature, closing price of a share, etc.) at times t1, t2,..
Thus Y is a function of t symbolized by Y =F(t).
It is clear from the above definitions that timeservers consist of data arranged chronologically. Thus if we record the data
relating to population per capital income, prices, production, etc.. for the last 5, 10, 15, 20 years or some other time
period, the series so emerging would be called time series.
It should be noted that the term time series is usually used with reference to economic data and the economists
are largely responsible for the development of the techniques of time series analysis. However, the term time series can
apply to all other phenomena that are related to time such as the number of accidents occurring in a day, the variation in
the temperature of a patient during a certain period, number of marriages taking place during a certain period, etc. In this
text, our discussion shall be limited to time series of economic and business data. But three techniques can also be applied
to any of the other natural or social sciences.
The problem of time series analysis can best be appreciated with the help of the following example:

Page 1

The following are the figures of sales of refrigerators of a firm in thousand units:
Year
Sales of firm A(000)
Year
Sales of Firm A(000)
2000
40
2004
43
2001
42
2005
48
2002
47
2006
65
2003
41
2007
42
If we observe the above series we find that generally the sales have increased but for two years a decline is also noticed.
The statistician, therefore tries to analyse the effect of the various forces under four broad heads:
(1) Changes that have occurred as a result of general tendency of the data to increase or decrease, known as secular
movements.
(2) Changes that have taken place during a period of 12 months as result of change in climate, whether conditions,
festivals etc. Such changes are called seasonal variations.
(3) Changes that have taken place as a result of booms and depressions .Such changes are classified under the head
cyclical variations.
(4) Changes that have taken place as a result of such forces that could not be predicted like folds, earthquakes,
famines, etc. Such changes are classified under the head irregular or erratic variations.
(5) These are called components of time series and shall be discussed in detail.

Utility of TIME SERIS ANALYSIS

The analysis of time series is of great significance not only to the economist and businessman but also to the scientist,
astronomist, geologist, sociologist, biologist, research worker, etc,, for reason given below:

1:- It helps in understanding past behavior:-

By observing data over a period of time once can easily

understand what changes have taken place in the past, such analysis will be extremely helpful in predicting the future
behavior.

2:- It helps in planning future operations:- Plans for the future cannot be made without forecasting events
and relationship they will have. Statistical techniques have been evolved which enable time series to be analyzed in such a
way that the influences which have determined the form of that series may be ascertained. If the regularly of occurrence of
any feature over a sufficiently long period could be clearly established then, within limits, prediction of probable future
variations would become possible.

3. It helps in evaluating current accomplishments:- The actual performance can be compared with the
expected performance and the cause of variation analyzed. For example, if expected sale for 2007-08 was 10,000
refrigerators and the actual sale was only 9,000, one can investigate the cause for the shortfall in achievements. Time
series analysis will enable us to apply the scientific procedure of holding other things constant as we examine one
variable at a time. For example, if we know how much is the effect of seasonality on business we may devise ways and
means of ironing out the seasonal influence or decreasing it by producing commodities with complementary seasons.
4. It facilitates comparison;, Different time series are often compared and important conclusions drawn theretrom.
However one should not be led to believe that by time series analysis one can foretell with 100 per cent accuracy the
course of future events. After all, statisticians are not foretellers. This could be possible only if the influence of the various
forces which affect these series such as climate customs and traditions, growth and decline factors and the compiles forces
which produce business cycle would have been regular in their operation. ?However, the facts of life reveal that this type

Page 2

of regularity does not exist. But this When such analysis is coupled with a careful examination of current business
indicators one can un doubted improve substantially upon guestimates(i.e. estimates based upon pure guesswork) in
forecasting future business conditions.

COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES

It is customary to classify the fluctuations of a time series into four basic types of variations. Which superimposed and
acting all in concert account for changes in the series over a period of time. Those four types of patterns, movements, or,
as they are often called, components or elements of a time series are:
1:- Secular Trend
2:- Seasonal variations
3:- Cyclical variations
4:- Irregular variations
It may noted that any or all of these components may be present in any particular series.

The following graph gives the sale of Cola for the year 1993 to 2007:
20
18

Sale of Cola
B

14
12
0
1993

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

The original data in this grapes is represent by curve (a). the general movement persisting over a long period of time
represented by the diagonal line (b) drawn thought the irregular curve is called secular trend.
Next, if we study the irregular curve year by year, we see that in each year the curve starts with a low figure and reaches a
peak about the middle of the year and then decreases again. This type of flotation, which completes the whole sequence of
Changes within the span of a year and has about the same pattern year after is called seasonal variation.
Furthermore, looking at the broken curve superimposed on the original irregular curve ,we find pronounced fluctuations
moving up and down every few years through the length of the chart . These are known as biasness clues or cyclical
fluctuations . they are so called because they comprise a series of repeated sequence just as a wheel goes round and
round.
Finally, the little saw-tooth irregularities on the original carve represent what are referred to as irregular movements.
In traditional or classical time series analysis , it is ordinarily assumed that there is a multiplicative relationship between
these four components, that is it is assumed that any particular value in a series is the product of factor that can be
attributed to the various components. Symbolically,
Y=T x S x C x I
Where Y denotes the result of four element : T= trend; S= seasonal component ; C = Cyclical component; I=Irregular
Component.
Another approach is to treat each observation of a time series as the sum of these for components. Symbolically
Y=T+S+C+I
To prevent confusion between the two models it should be pointed out that in the multiplicative model S,C and I are
indexes expressed as decimal percent can be expressed as seasonal, cyclical and irregular in nature.

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Example. If in multiplicative model, T= 400 x S=1.5, C = 1.2 and I = 0.8 then:

Y = T x S x C x I = 400 x 1.5 x 1.2 x 0.8 = 576
If in the additive model, T = 400, S = 120, C = 20 and I= - 40
Then
Y = 400 + 120 + 20 40 =50
The additive model assumes that all the components of the time series are independent of one another. For example ,it
assumes the trend has no effect on the seasonal component, no matter how high or low this value may become .Further , it
assumes that the business cycle has no effect on the seasonal component. If the index for December is typically 1.50 or
1505, this per cent will not be affected by either prosperity or recession.
White the additive model may work well within limits, it is doubtful if one always can rely on the independence of
components that it assumes.
In the multiplicative model. it is assumed that the four components are due to different causes but they are not necessarily
independent and they can affect one another.
There is little agreement amongst experts about the validity of the different assumptionssome feel that the given
classification is too crude and that there are more than four types of movements. Nothing specific is really known
55About how the components are related. How they combine to produce particular effects, or whether they are really
separable. The effects of the various components might be additive, multiplicative or they might be combined in any one
of indefinitely large number of other ways. Different models (assumption or theories) will lead to different results.
Although the multiplicative assumption characterizes the majority of economic times series. Consequently, the
multiplicative model is not only considered the standard of traditional assumption for time series analysis but is more
often employed in practice than all other possible models combined. For this reason, we shall use only the multiplicative
model in our subsequent discussion.
The task of performing a time series analysis, just like the analysis of a chemist in breaking a substance into its constituent
parts, is to operate on the data in such a way as to bring out separately each of the components present.

1:- Secular Trend:The term trend is very commonly used in day-to-day parlance. For example , we after talk of rising trend of population,
prices etc. Tend also called secular or long term trend, is the basic tendency of production, sales, income, employment,
etc.. to grow or decline over a period of time. The concept of trend does not include short-range oscillations but rather
steady movements over a long period of time.
Secular trend movements are attributable to factors such as population change technological progress and largescale shifts in consumer tastes. The presence of more people means that more food, clothing , housing are necessary.
Technological changes discovery and exhaustion of natural resources, mass production methods, improvements in
business organizations and governmental intervention in the economy are other major causes for the growth or decline of
many economy time series. In some cases growth in one series involves decline in another, For example the displacement
of silk by rayon, the bullock-carts by other modes of transport like trucks tempo etc. Similarly better medical facilities
improved sanitation diet etc. on the one hand, reduce the death rate and on the other contribute to a rise in birth rate.
There are all sorts of trends: some series increase slowly and some increase fast, others decrease At varying rates,
some remain relatively constant for long periods of time, and some after a period of growth or decline reverse themselves
and enter a period of decline or growth, Broadly speaking the various types of trends are divided under two heads:

1:- Linear or Straight Line Trends: and

2:- Non linear Trends

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For a proper understanding of the meaning of trend , the readers attention is directed to the following two points:
(1) When we say that secular trend refers to the general tendency of the data to grow or decline over a long period of
time, one may be interested in finding out as to what constitutes a long period of time. Does it mean several
years? The answer is no. On the other hand, whether a particular period can be regarded as long as not in the
study of secular trend depends upon the nature.

MEASURENT OF TREND:Given any long-term series, we wish to determine and present the direction which it takesis it growing or declining?
there are two important reasons for trend measurement:
(i)To find out trend characteristics in and themselves. In studying trend in and of itself, we ascertain the growth
factor for example, we can compare the growth in the textile industry with the growth in the economy as a whole or with
the growth industries, or we can compare the growth in on firm of the textile industry with the growth in the industry as a
whole . Moreover , we can compare through trend characteristics the growth of the textile industry in India with that of
other countries .the growth factor also helps us in predicting the future behavior of the data. If a trend can be determined,
the rate of change can be ascertained and tentative estimates concerning future made accordingly.
(ii) To enable us to eliminate trend order to study other elements. The elimination of trend levels us with
seasonal , cyclical and irregular factors. We can then, in two or more series, compare or use the impact of these three
relatively short-term elements divorced from the long-term factor.
The various method that can be used for determining trend are

Freehand or graphic method.

Semi-average method .
Moving average method.
Method of least squares.

Question 1:-. Fit a trend line to the following data by the freehand method:
Year

Production of steel
Year
Production of steel
(million tonnes)
(million tones)
1999
20
2004
25
2000
22
2005
23
2001
24
2006
26
2002
21
2007
25
2003
23
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question 2:- Fit a trend line to the following data by the freehand method of semi-average: of semi-average:
Year
2001
2002
2003

Sales of a
(thousand unit)
102
105
114

year
2005
2006
2007

Sales of firm a
(thousand unit)
108
116
112

Page 5

2004
110
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question 3:-. Fit a trend line by the freehand method of semi-average: to the data given below Estimate the sales
for the year 2008 if the actual sale for that year is Rs. 520 lakhs, account for the difference between the two figures.
Year
Sales (Rs. lakhs)
Year
Sales (Rs. lakhs)
2000
412
2004
470
2001
438
1748/4 =437
2005
482
1942/4=485.5
2002
444
2006
490
2003
454
2007
500
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question 4:- The sale of a commodity in

million tones varied from January 2007 to December 2007 in the

following:
280

300

280

280

270

240

230

230

220

200

210

200

Fit a trend by the method of semi-averages.

SOLUTION:CALCULATION OF TREND VALUES BY THE METHOD OF SEMI-AVERAGES

Month
January
February
March
April
May
June

Sales in M. tonees
1,650(Total) of
280
First Six months
300
280
280
270
240

Average of the first half=

Month
July
August
September
October
November
December

Sales in M. tonnes
230
1,290 (Total) of
last six month
230
220
200
210
200

= 275 tonnes

Average of the second half =

= 215 tonnes
These two figures namely 275 and 215, shall be plotted at the middle of their respective periods, i.e. at the middle of
March-April and that of September-October. 2007. By joining these two points, we get a trend line which describes the
given data.
305
Trend by the Method of Semi-Averages
290
275
Trend Line
260

Page 6

245
230
215

Actual Data

200
Jan Feb

March

April May June July Aug. Sep. oct. Nov. Dec.

Months
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question 5:- Calculate 5-yearly and 7-yearly moving average for the following data of the numbers of
commercial; and industries in a failure in a country during 1992to 2007:
Year
No. of failures year
No. of
failure
1992
23
2000
9
1993
26
2001
13
1994
28
2002
11
1995
32
2003
14
1996
20
2004
12
1997
12
2005
9
1998
12
2006
3
1999
10
2007
1
Also plot the actual and trend values on a graph.

SOLUTION:- CALCULATION OF 5-YEARLY MOVING AVERAGES

Year

No. of failures

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

23
26
28
32
20
12
12
10
9
13
11
14
12
9

5yearly moving
total
129
118
104
86
63
56
55
57
59
59
69
39

5 yearly moving
average
--25.8
23.6
20.8
17.2
12.6
11.2
11.0
11.4
11.8
11.8
9.8
7.8

7 yearly moving
total
---153
140
123
108
87
81
81
78
71
63
--

7 yearly moving
average
----21.9
20.0
17.6
15.4
12.4
11.6
11.6
11.1
10.1
9.0
--

Page 7

2006
2007

3
1

---

---

---

---

35
Trend by the Method of Least Squares
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1992

1994

1996

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

YEars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question6:- Estimate the trend values using the data given by taking
Year
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

Value
12
25
39
54
70
87
105

year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

a four-yearly moving average.

Value
100
82
65
49
34
20
7

SOLUTION:- ESTIMATING THE TREND VALUES

Page 8

YEar

Value

12
25

4 yearly
moving
totals
---

4 yearly
moving
average
---

1994
1995
1996

39

130

32.5

4 yearly
moving
cebtred

39.75
1997

54

188

47.0

54.75
There is another method of centering the moving averages. If we are calculating 4 yearly moving average, we will then
take four-yearly totals and of these totals we will again take 2-yearly totals and divide these totals by 8.
YEar
Value
4 yearly
4- yearly
4 yearly
moving total
moving
moving
avergae
average
centred
250
62.5
1998
70
70.75
316
79.0
1999
87
84.75
362
90.5
2000
105
92.00
374
93.5
2001
100
90.75
352
88.0
2002
82
81.00
296
74.0
2003
65
65.75
230
57.5
2004
49
49.75
168
42.0
2005
34
34.75
110
27.5
2006
20
---2007
7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question 7:- Assume a four-yearly cycle and calculate the trend by the method moving average from the
following data relating to the production of in India:
Year
Production (m.lbs)

year

Production (m.lbs)

Page 9

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

464
515
518
467
502

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

540
557
571
586
612

SOLUTION:- CALCULATION OF TREND BY THE MOVING AVERGE METHOD

YEar

Production
(m. lbs.)

4 yearly
4- yearly
moving total moving
average

1998
1999

464
515

---1964

2000

518

495.75
2002

2001

500.62
511.62
529.50

2006
2007

542.50

557

553.00
2254

2005

516.50

540
2170

2004

506.75

502
2066

2003

500.50

467
2027

2002

--491.00

563.50

571
586
612

4 yearly
moving
average
centered
---

572.50
2326
----

581.50
----

----

IIIustration 8. From the following data, calculate 3-yearly ,5-yearly and 7-yearly moving average and plot the data on the
graph :
Year
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Cyclical fluctuations
+2
+1
0
-2
-1
+2
+1
0
-2
Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Cyclical fluctuations
-1
+2
+1
0
-2
-1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Solution:- CALCULATION OF THREE-YEARLY

FIVE-YEARLY AND SEVEN-YEARLY MOVING AVERAGES
Year
Cyclical
3 yearly moving 5 yearly
7 yearly moving
fluctuations average
moving
average
Page 10

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

+2
+1
0
-2
-1
+2
+1
0
-2
-1
+2
+1
0
-2
-1

-+ 1.00
-0.33
-1.00
-0.33
+0.67
+1.00
-0.33
-1.00
-0.33
+ 0.67
+1.00
-0.33
- 1.00

average
--0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
---

---+0.43
+0.14
-0.28
-0.43
-0.14
-0.43
+ 0.14
-0.28
-0.43
----

3
Trend by the Method of Moving Average
2
1

0
-1

-2
1993

1995

1997

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Year
Page 11

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Question 8:- Below are given the figures of production (million tones) of a sugar factory:
Year
Production (m.tonnes)
(i)
(ii)

2001
80

2002
90

2003
92

2004
83

2005
94

2006
99

2007
92

Fit a straight line trend to these figures.

Plot these figures on a graph and how the trend line.

SOLUTION:- FITTING THE STRAIGHT LINE TREND

Production
X
XY
X2
(m. tones)
Y
2001
80
-3
-240
9
2002
90
-2
-180
4
2003
92
-1
-92
1
2004
83
0
0
0
2005
94
+1
+94
1
2006
99
+2
+198
4
2007
92
+3
+276
9
N=7
Y =630
X =0 XY = 56 X2 = 28
The equation of the straight line is Yc = a + b X.
YEar

Trend
values
Yc
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
Yc =630

Since X = 0: a =
,b=
Y = 630, N=7, XY =56, X2 =28
A=
= 90; and b =
=2
Hence the equation of the straight line trend is Yc = 90+ 2X
Origin. 2004; X units one year; Y units, production in million tones.
For X = -3, Yc 90+ 2(-3) =84
For X = -2, Yc = 90 +2 (-2) = 86.
For X = -1, Yc =90+2 (-1) =88.
Similarly by putting X =0, 1,2,3 we can obtain other trend values. However, since the value of b is constant, first trend
value need be obtained and then if the value b si positive we may continue adding the value of b to every preceding
value. For 2002 it will be 84 +2 = 86, for 2003 it will be 86 + 2 = 88, and so on, If b is negative , then instead of adding we
will deduct.
(iii)
The graph of the above data is given below:
Trend by the Method of Least Squares

100
Trend Line
95

Page 12

90
8

Actual Data

80
75
0
2001

2002 2003 2004

2005
2006
2007
Years
If instead of middle year as origin, we take first year as origin the solution would be as follows:
Yc
Year
Production
X
XY
X2
(m, tones)
2001
80
0
0
0
84
2002
90
1
90
1
86
2003
92
2
184
4
88
2004
83
3
249
9
90
2005
94
4
376
16
92
2006
99
5
495
25
94
2007
92
6
552
36
96
N=7
Y = 630
X = 21 XY = 1,946
X2 =91
Yc=630
Yc = a+b X; Y = Na+b X; XY = a X + bX2
Substituting the value,

630 = 7a + 21 b
1946 = 21 a + 91 b
Multiplying Eqn. (i) by 3
1890 = 21 a + 63 b
1946 1 a + 91 b
--- ---------------------------28b = - 56 or b = 2
Substituting the value of b In Eqn. (i)
630 = 7a +21 (2)
7 a =630 -42 = 588 or a = 84
Thus, the equation is Yc = 84 + 2 X
Origin 2001: X units, one year: Y units, production in million tones.
For X =0, Y=84.
Note: The difference in the two equations is because of the difference in origin. In the first case 2004 was taken as origin
whereas in the second case 2001 was taken s origin. However, trend values are the same.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question 9:- Fit a straight line trend for the following series. Estimate the value for 2012:
Year

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Page 13

Production of steel
(m.tonnes)

60

72

75

65

Solution:- Fitting Straight Line TRend

Year
Production of Deviations XY
Steel (m.
from 2004
tones) Y
2001
60
-3
-180
2002
72
-2
-144
2003
75
-1
-75
2004
65
0
0
2005
80
+1
+80
2006
85
+2
+170
2007
95
+3
+285
N=7
Y= 532
X=0
XY=136
The equation of the straight line trend is
Y = a+b X
Since X=0; a=

80

85

95

X2

9
4
1
0
1
4
9
x2= 28

= 76.

And b=
=
= 4.857
Hence
Y = 76 + 4.857 X
For 2012, X will be +8
Y2010 = 76 + 4.857 (8) = 114.86.
Thus the likely sales for the year 2012 is 114.86m. tones.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question 10:- Fit a straight

line trend by the method of least squares the following data . assuming that the
same rate of change continues , what would be the predicted earning for the year 2009?
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Earning
38
40
65
72
69
60
87
95
(Rs. lakhs)

Page 14

SOLUTION:- FITTING OF STRAIGHT LINE TREND BY THE METHOD OF LEAST

SQUARES
Year

Earning
(RS. Lakhs)
Y

Deviations
from 2003.5

2000
38
-3.5
2001
40
-2.5
2002
65
-1.5
2003
72
-0.5
2004
69
+0.5
2005
60
01.5
2006
87
+2.5
2007
95
+3.5
N=8
Y = 526
The equation of the straight line trend is
A=

Deviations
multiplied by
2
X

XY

X2

-7
-5
-3
-1
+1
+3
+5
+7
X =0

-266
-200
-195
-72
+69
+180
+435
+665
XY = 616

49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
X2 = 168

= 65.75

B=
=
= 3.667: Y = 65.75 +3.667X
For 2009, X will be + 11
When X is 11, Y wll be
Y = 65.75 +3.667 (11) = 65.75 + 40.337 = 106.087.
Thus the estimated earnings for the year 2009 are Rs. 106.087 lakhs.
The same result will be obtained if we do not multiply the deviations by 2. But in that case our computations would be
more difficult as could be seen below:
Year
Sales in
Deviations
XY
X2
thousands of from 2003.5
rupees Y
2000
38
-3.5
-133.00
12.25
2001
40
-2.5
+100.00
6.25
2002
65
-1.5
-97.50
2.25
2003
72
-0.5
-36.00
0.25
2004
69
+0.5
+34.50
0.25
2005
60
+1.5
+90.00
2.25
2006
87
+2.5
+217.50
6.25
2007
95
+3.5
+332.50
12.25
N= 8
Y = 526
X =0
XY = 308
X2 = 42.00
A=

= 65.75: b =

= 7.333

Page 15

The advantage of this method is that the value of b gives annual increment of change rather than 6 monthly increment,
as in the first method discussed above. Hence we will not have to double the v alue of b to obtain yearly increment. It is
clear from the above illustration that in the first case the value of b is half of what we obtained from the second method
( b was 3.67 in the first case and 7.333 in the second case.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question11:- Below are given the figurer of

production (in million tines) of a sugar factory :

Year

production (m. tones)

Year

production (m. tones)

2001
2002
2003
2004

77
88
94
85

2005
2006
2007

91
98
90

(i)
(ii)
(iii)

Fit a straight line by the least squares method and tabulate the trend values.
Eliminate the trend. What component of series are thus left over?
What is monthly increase in the production.

Answer:- (i) The equation of the straight line trend is Yx = a + b X

Since X is not zero, the value of a and b will be obtained directly by solving the following two normal
equations:
Y = N a + b X
XY = a X + b X2
Year
Production
Taking
XY
X2
Trend value
(Y Yc)
(m. tones)
2004 as
Yc
origin
2001
77
-4
-308
16
83.283
-6.283
2002
88
-2
-176
4
86.043
+1.957
2003
94
-1
-94
1
87.423
+6.577
2004
85
0
0
0
88.803
-3.803
2005
91
+1
+91
1
90.183
+0.817
2006
98
+2
+196
4
91.563
+6.437
2007
90
+5
+450
25
95.703
-5.703
2
N =7
Y = 623
X =1
XY = +159 X = 51
Yc = 623
(Y-Yc) =0
623 = 7 a+b
159 = a+51b
Multiply the second equation by 7, we get
1113 = 7 a +357 b
Deducting equation (iii) from (i)
= 1.38
-490 = -356 b or b =
Substituting the value of b in equation (i)
623 = 7a + 1.38
Page 16

7a = 623 1.38 = 621.62 or a =88.803

SO the equation of straight line trend is
Y = 88.803 + 1.38 X
When X = -4, Y = 88.803 + 1.38 (-4) = 88.803 - 5.52 = 83.283
When X = -2 , Y = 88.803 + 1.38 (-2) = 88.803 2.76 = 86.043
When X = -1 , Y = 88.803 1.38 = 87.423
When X =0, Y = 88.803,
When X = +1, Y = 88.803 + 1.38 = 90.183
When X = +2, Y = 88.803 + (1.38 X2) = 91.563
When X = +5, Y = 88.803 + (1.38X5) = 95.703
(ii) After the eliminating the trend we are left with cyclical and irregular variations
The monthly increase in the production of sugar is
b/12, i.e. 1.38 /12 = 0.115m. tones
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question12:- The price of a commodity during 2002-2007 is given below. Fit a parabola y = a + v X + c X2 TO
THESE DATA PRICE OF THE COMMODITY FOR THEYEAR 2008:
Year

Price

Year

Price

2002

100

2005

140

2003

107

2006

181

2004

128

2007

192

Solution:- To determine the values of a, b and c, we solve the following normal equations:

Y = Na + b

X + c X2

XY = a X + b X + c X3
X2 Y = a X2 + b X3 + CX4
Year

2002

Prices

X2

X3

X4

XY

X2Y

Trend

(Rs.)

Value

(YC)

100

-2

-8

16

-200

400

97.717

Page 17

2003

107

-1

-1

-107

107

110.401

2004

128

126.657

2005

140

+1

+1

+140

140

146.485

2006

181

+2

+8

16

+362

724

169.885

2007

192

+3

+27

81

+576

1728

196.857

N=6

Y = 848

X = 3

X2 = 19

X3 = 27

X4 =

XY

X2Y=3,099 Yc=848.002

115

=771

848 = 6a + 3b + 19 c
771 = 3a + 19 b +27 c
3,099 = 19 a + 27 b + 115c
Multiplying the second equation by 2 and keeping the first as it is we get
848 = 6a + 3 b + 19 c
1542 = 6a + 38 b + 54 C
--

--

--

--

----------------------------------694 = -35 b 35 c
Or

35b + 35 c = 694

Multiply Eqn. (ii) by 19 and Eqn, (iii) by 3, we get

14,649 = 57 a + 361 b + 513 c
9297 = 57 a + 81 b + 345 c
--------------------------------------5,352 = 280 b + 168 c
Multiplying equation (iv) by 8, we have
280 b + 280 c = 5,552
Solving equations (iv) and (v)
280 b + 280 c = 5,552

Page 18

280 b + 168 c = 5,352

--

--

--

-------------------------112 c = 200 or c = 1,786

Substituting the value of C in Eqn. (iv)
35 b + (35 X 1,786 _ = 694
35 b = 694 62.5 = 631. 5 or b = 18.042
848 = 6a + 3 ( 18.042) + 19 (1.786) = 6 a + 54.126 + 33.934
6 a = 759.94

or

a = 126.657

A = 126.657 , b = 18.042 and c = 1.786

Thus
Substituting these values in the equation,
Y = 126.657 + 18.042 X + 1786 X 2
When X = - 2
Y = 126.657 + 18.042 (-2) + 1.786 ( -2)2
= 126.657 36.084 + 7.144 = 97.717
When X = -1
Y = 126.657 + 18.042 (-1) + 1.786 (-1)2
= 126.657 - 18.042 + 1.786 = 110.401
When X = 1
Y = 126.657 + 18.042 + 1.786 = 146.485
When X =2
Y = 126.657 + 18.042 (2) + 1.786 (2) 2 = 169.885
When X = 3.
Y = 126.657 + 18.042 (3) + 1.786 (3) 2 = 196.857
Price for the year 2008

Page 19

For 2008 X would be equal to 4, Putting X = 4 in the equation

Y = 126.657 + 18.042 (4) + 1.786 (4)2
= 126.657 +72.168 + 28.576 = 227.401
Thus the likely price of the commodity for the year 2008 is Rs. 227.41 approx. The graph of the actual and
trend values is given below:200

180
Trend Line
100

140
Actual Data
120

100

0
2002

2003

2004 2005
Years

2006

2007

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question13:- The sales of a company in lakhs of rupees for the years 2001 to 2007 are given below
Year

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Sales (Rs. lakhs)

32

47

65

92

132

190

275

Find trend value by using the equation Y=a bx and estimate the value for 2008.
Logy = 1.9704+0.154X
Estimated sales for 2008, Rs.385.9lakh

Page 20

SOLUTION:- FITITNG EQUATION OF THE FORM Y = ab X

YEar

Sales(Y)

Log Y

X2

X. log Y

(RS. Lakhs)
2001

32

-3

1.5051

-4.5153

2002

47

-2

1.6721

-3.3442

2003

65

-1

1.8129

-1.8129

2004

92

1.9638

2005

132

+1

2.1206

+2.1206

2006

190

+2

2.2788

+4.5576

2007

275

+3

2.4393

+7.3179

N=7

Y = 833

X=0

log Y = 13.7926

X2 =28

X log Y = 4.3237

Log a =

Log b =

= 1.9704;

= 0.154

Hence log Y = 1.9704 + 0.154 X

For 2008X would be +4, when X =4, log Y will be
Log Y = 1.9707 + . 154 (4) = 2.5864
Y = AL 2.5864 = 385.9
Thus the estimated sale for the year 2008 is Rs. 385.9 lakhs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seasonal variation: Most of the phenomena in economics and business show seasonal patterns .When data are expressed annually
there is no seasonal variation. Movement and concededly data frequently exhibit strong seasonal movement and
considerable industry attaches to devising a pattern of average seasonal .for example, if we observe , if we
Page 21

observe the sales of a bookseller we find that for the quarter July-September (when most of the students
purchase books) sales, are maximum. If we know by how much the sales of this quarter are usually above or
below the previous quarter for seasonal reasons, we shall be able to answer a very basic question namely, was
this due to an underlying up what tendency or simply because this quarter is usually seasonally higher than the
previous quarter .
In order to analyses seasonal variation , it is necessary to assume that the seasonal pattern is superimposed on a
series of value and is independent of these in the sense that the same pattern is superimposed irrespective of the
level the series , i.e. the June quarter always contributes so much more or so much less to the series.
Before attempting to measure seasonal variation certain preliminary decisions must be made. for
example it necessary to decide whether weekly quarterly or monthly indexes are required . this will be decided
in the light of the nature of the problem and the type of data available seasonal adjustments help avoid
misinterpretation.
To obtain a static description of a pattern of seasonal variation it will be desirable to first free the data from the
effects of trend , cycles and irregular variation. One these other components have been eliminated, we can
calculate. In index form ,a measure of seasonal variation which is usually referred to as a seasonal index. Thus
the measures of seasonal variation are called seasonal indexes (per cent).
For monthly data, a seasonal index consists of 12 numbers, one for each month of year. Or a number of
years. That has taken place typically in each month. Thus a second index may be specific or typical. A specific
seasonal index refers to the seasonal changes during a particular year. A typical seasonal index is obtained by
averaging a number of specific seasonal .It is thus a generalized expression of seasonal variations for a series.
Seasonal. Indexes are given as percentages of their average . i.e. each month is represented by a figure
expressing it as a percentage of the average month. For example. If a seasonal index for January is 75. this
means that for the month of January. Sales. Orders. Purchases or whatever our data happen to be. Are 75 per
cent of these of the average month.
There are many techniques available for computing an index of seasonal variation. Many of the simpler
methods were devised prior to the development of electronic computers and were designed to sacrifice precision
for ease of computation. Any acceptable modern method for computing such an index probably will be
programmed for a computer solution. The method should be designed to meet the following criteria:
(1) It should measure only the seasonal forces in the data. It should not be influenced by the forces of trend
or cycle that may be present.
(2) It should modify the erratic fluctuations in the data with an acceptable system of averaging.
(3) It should recognize slowly changing seasonal patterns that may be present and modify the index to keep
up with those changes.
The following are some of the method more popularly used for measuring seasonal
variation :
1. Method of Simple Average (Weekly, Monthly or Quarterly).
2. Ratio-to Trend Method.
3. Ratio-to Moving Average Method.
Page 22

4. Link Relative Method.

Method of Simple Averages:This is the simplest method of obtaining a seasonal index. The following step are necessary for calculation the
index.
(i)
Arrange the unadjusted data by years and month (or, quarters if quarterly data are given).
(ii)
Find the totals of January, February, etc.
(iii) Divide each totals by the number of years for which data are given. For example, if we are given
monthly data for five years than, we shall first obtain total for each month for five years and divide
each total by 5 to obtain an average.
(iv)
Obtain by average of monthly average by dividing the total of monthly average by 12.
(v)
Taking the average of monthly average as 100. compute the percentages of various monthly average
as follows:
Seasonal index for January = monthly average for January / average of monthly average X 100
If instead of the average of each month the total of each month are obtained ,we will the same result

Question14:- Consumption of monthly electric power in million of kWh for street lighting in a big city during
2003-07 is given below:
YEAR
JAN.
FEB.
MAR.
APR.
MAY
JUNE
2003
318
281
278
250
231
216
2004
342
309
299
268
249
236
2005
367
328
320
287
269
251
2006
392
349
342
311
290
273
2007
420
378
370
334
314
296
Find out seasonal variation by the method of monthly averages .

Solution :-

JULY
223
242
259
282
305

AUG.
245
262
284
305
330

SEP.
269
288
309
328
356

OCT.
302
321
345
364
396

NOV.
325
342
367
389
422

DEC.
347
364
394
417
452

CONSTRUCTION OF SEASONAL INDICES BY

THE METHOD OF MONTLY AVERAGE

Month

2003

Consumption of monthly electric power

2004
2005
2006
2007

(1)
Jan.
Fab.
March
April
May
June
July
August

(2)
318
281
278
250
231
216
223
245

(3)
342
309
299
268
249
236
242
262

(4)
367
328
302
287
269
251
259
284

(5)
392
349
342
311
290
373
282
305

(6)
420
378
370
334
314
296
305
330

Monthly
total for 5
year
(7)
1,839
1,645
1,609
1,450
1,353
1,272
1,311
1,426

Five yearly
average
(8)
367.8
329.0
321.8
290.0
270.6
254.4
262.2
285.2

Seasonal
variation
index
(9)
116.14
103.88
101.61
91.57
85.44
80.33
82.79
90.05

Page 23

September
October
November
December

269
302
325
347

288
321
342
364

309
245
367
394

328
364
389
417

356
396
422
452
Total 19,002
Average 1,583.5

1,555
1,728
1,843
1,974
3,800.4
316.7

310.0
345.6
369.0
394.8
1.200
100

97.88
109.13
116.52
124.66

The above calculation are explained below:

1.
2.
3.
4.

Column no 7 gives the total for each month for five years.
in column no 8 each total of column no 7 has been divided by 5 to obtain an average for each month.
The average of monthly averages is obtained by dividing the total of monthly averages by 12.
In column no 9 each monthly average has been expressed as a percentage of the average of monthly averages.
Thus, the percentage for January
= 36.7/316.7 X 100= 116.14

percentage for February = 329.0/316.7 X 100 =103.88.

if ,instead of monthly data ,we are given weekly or quarterly data, we shall compute weekly or quarterly average by
following the same procedure as explained above.

Question15:- Assuming that trend is absent , determined if there is any seasonality in the data given below :
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007

Ist Quarter

2ndQuarter 3rdQuarter

4thQuarter

3.7

4.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

3.6

3.6

4.0

4.1

3.3

3.1

3.3

4.4

4.0

4.0

What are the seasonal indices for various quarters?

ANSWER:- COMPUTATION OF SEASONAL INDICES

YEar
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
2004
3.7
4.1
3.3
2005
3.7
3.9
3.6
2006
4.0
4.1
3.3
2007
3.3
4.4
4.0
Total
14.7
16.5
14.2
Average
3.675
4.125
3.55
Seasonal Index 98.66
110.74
95.30
Notes fro calculating seasonal index

4th Quarter
3.5
3.6
3.1
4.0
14.2
3.55
95.30

Page 24

The average of averages =

Seasonal Index =

= 3.725

X 100

Seasonal Index for the first quarter =

Seasonal Index for the second quarter =

X 100 = 98.66
X100 = 110.74

Seasonal index for the third and fourth quarters =

X 100 = 95.30

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ratio-to-Trend Method
This method of calculating a seasonal index (also known as the percent-ageto trend method )is relatively simply and
yet an improvement over the method of simply averages explained in the preceding section .this method assumes that
seasonal variation for a given method is constant fraction of trend .the ratio-to-trend method presumably isolates the
seasonal factor in the following miner . Trend is eliminated when the ratios are computed ,in effect
T x S x C x I /T = S x C x I.
Random elements are supposed to disappear when the ratios are averaged. A careful selection of the period of years
used in the computation is expected to cause the influences of prosperity or depression to offset each other and thus
remove the cycle. For series that are not subject to pronounced cyclical or random influences and for which trend can be
computed accurately, this method may suffice. The steps in the computation of seasonal index by this method are.
1. Trend values are obtained by applying the method of least squares.
2. The next step is to divide the original data month by month by the corresponding trend values and multiply
these ratios by 100. the values so obtained are now free from trend and the problem that remains is to free
them also of irregular and cyclical movements.
3.

In order to free the values from irregular and cyclical movements the figures given for the various years for
January, February , etc. are averaged with any one of the usual measures of central value, for instance , the
median or the mean . if the data are examined month by month , it is sometimes possible to ascribe a definite
cause to usually high or low values. When such causes are found to be associated with irregular variations
(extremely bad whether ,an earthquake, famine and the like) they may be cast out and the mean of the
remaining items is referred to as a modified mean. Since such scrutiny of the data requires considerable
knowledge of prevailing conditions and is to a large extent subjective ,it is often desirable to use the median
which is generally not affected by very high or very low values.

4.

The seasonal index for each month is expressed as a percentage of the average month . the some of 12 values
must equal 1,200 or 100 per cent. If it is not, and adjustment is made by multiplying each index by a suitable
factor (1,200/ the sum of the 12 value). This gives the final seasonal index.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Page 25

Question16:- Find seasonal various by the ratio-to-trend method from the data given blow:
Year

Ist Quarter

2ndQuarter

3rdQuarter

4thQuarter

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

30
34
40
54
80

40
52
58
76
92

36
50
54
68
86

34
44
48
62
82

Answer: - For determining seasonal variation by ratio-to-trend method, first

we will determine the trend for yearly data and then concert it to quarterly
data.
CALCULATING TREND BY METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES
Year
Yearly
Yearly
Deviations XY
X2
Trend
totals
average Y from midvalues
year
2003
140
35
-2
-70
4
32
2004
180
45
-1
-45
1
44
2005
200
50
0
0
0
56
2006
260
65
+1
+65
1
68
2007
340
85
+2
+170
4
80
N=5
Y = 280
XY =
X2 = 10
120
The equation of the straight line trend is Y=a+bx
A=

= 56

b=

= 12.

Quarterly increment = = 3.
Calculation of Quarterly Trend Values. Consider 2003, trend value for the
middle quarter i.e. half of 2nd and half of 3rd is 32. Quarterly increment is 3. So

Page 26

the trend value of 2nd quarter is 32- , ie 30.5 and for 3rd quarter is 32+ i.e.
33.5. Trend value for the 1st quarter is 30.5 -3, i.e. 27.5 and of 4th quarter is
33.5 + 3, i.e. 36.5. We thus get quarterly trend values as shown below:
TREND VALUES
YEar
1st quarter
2nd quarter
3rd quarter
4th quarter
2003
27.5
30.5
33.5
36.5
2004
39.5
42.5
45.5
48.5
2005
51.5
54.5
57.5
60.5
2006
63.5
66.5
69.5
72.5
2007
75.5
78.5
81.5
84.5
The given values are expresses as percentage of the corresponding trend
values.
Thus for 1st Qtr. Of 2003, the percentage shall be (30/27.5) X 100 = 109.09 for
2nd Qtr. (40/30.5) X100 = 131.15 etc.
GIVEN QUARTERLY values as % of TREND VALUES
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter
Year
1st Quarter
2003
109.09
131.15
107.46
93.15
2004
86.08
122.35
109.89
90.72
2005
77.67
106.42
93.91
79.34
2006
85.04
114.29
97.84
85.52
2007
105.96
117.20
105.52
97.04
Total
463.84
591.41
514.62
445.77
Average
92.77
118.28
102.92
89.15
S.I. Adjusted 92.05
117.36
102.12
88.46
Total of average = 92.77 + 118.28 + 102.92 + 89.15 = 403.12

Page 27

Since the total is more than 400 an adjustment is made by multiplying each
average by

and final indices are obtained.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ratio-to-moving average method*

The ratio-to-moving average method also known as the percentages of moving average method is the most widely used
method of measuring seasonal variations. The steps necessary for determining seasonal pattern by this method are .
1:- Eliminate seasonality from the data by ironing it out of the original data. Since seasonal variations recur every
year- that is, since the fluctuations have a time span of 12 months- a centered 12 month moving average tends to
eliminate these fluctuations(in case of quarterly data, a centered 4 quarter moving average must be used.) The centered
12 month moving average which aims to eliminate seasonal and irregular fluctuations ( S and I) represents the
remaining elements of the origin al data , namely, trend and cycles. Thus, the centered 12-month moving average
approximates T.C.
2. Express the original data for each month as a percentage of the centered 12 month moving average
corresponding to it .
3. Divide each monthly item of the original data by the corresponding 12- month moving average, and list the
quotients as percentage of Moving average. We have now succeeded in eliminating from the original data to a
considerable extent the disturbing influences of trend and cycles. It remains to rid the data of irregular variations. By
averaging these percentages for a given month (step 4) the irregular factors tend to cancel out and and the average
itself reflects the seasonal influence alone.
4:- the purpose of this step is to average ,and in the process of averagingto eliminate the irregular factors.
We assume that the relatively high or extremely low values of seasonal relatives for any month are caused by
irregular Factors. The elimination of extremes may be achieved while we are averaging all Januarys, Februarys and
the like We do this by using an appropriate type of average. The median is appropriate since it is not affected by
extremes .Thus by using the median as an average we can obtain the typical seasonal relative for each month which
will not be affected by irregular factors.
5:-Sometimes a so-called modified mean is used as an average for ach month. Here, extreme values are omitted
before the arithmetic mean is taken. In any array of seasonal relatives for each month, a value or several values on one
end or both ends may be dropped and then the arithmetic mean of the remaining seasonal relatives is taken. A separate
table is prepared in which the calculations involved in this step are shown. These means are preliminary seasonal
indexes. They should average 100 per cent or total 1,200 for 12 month by definition.
If the total is not equal to 1,200 or 100 per cent, an adjustment is made to eliminate the discrepancy. The adjustment
consist of multiplying average of each month obtained in step 4 by
1200
the total of the modified mean for 12 months
This adjustment is made not only to achieve accuracy, but also because when we come to eliminate sweaonality from
the original data we do not wish to arise or lower the level of the data unduly. Thus if a seasonal index affregates more
than 1,200 ( or averages more than 100) then the original data adjusted in terms of it will total less than the unadjusted
original data. If it totals less than 1,200 the opposite would be true.

Page 28

The logical reasoning behind this method follows from the fact that 12-month moving average can be considered to
represent the influence of cycle and trend C x T. If the actual value for any month is divided by the 12 month moving
average centered to that month, Presumably cycle and trend are removed. This may be represented by the following
expression:

Tx SxCxI = SxI
TXC
Thus the ratio to the moving average, from which this method gets its name, represents irregular and seasonal
influences, If the ratio for each worked over a period of years are then averaged most random influences will usually be
eliminated. Hence in effect

S x I = S.
I
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question17:- Calculate seasonal indices by the ratio to moving average method, from the following data :
Year
2005
2006
2007

Answer:Year

2005

Ist Quarter
68
65
68

2ndQuarter
62
58
63

Quarter

Given
figures

I
II

68
62

3rdQuarter
61
66
63

4 figure
moving
totals

4thQuarter
63
61
67

2 figure
moving
totals

4 figure
moving
average

Given
figure as
% of
moving
average

505

6.186

96.54

498

62.260

101.19

499

62.375

104.21

254
III

61
251

IV

63
247

2006

65
252

Page 29

II

58

502

62.875

104.97

503

63.875

95.50

511

64.125

106.04

64.500

97.67

250
66
253
IV

61
258

2007

68

513
255

II

63

516
261

III
63
IV
67
CALCULATION OF SEASONAL INDEX
Percentage to Moving Average
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
2005
2006
104.21
92.43
2007
106.04
97.67
Total
210.25
190.10
Average
105.125
95.05
Seasonal Index 105.30
95.21

3rd Quarter
96.63
104.97
-201.60
100.80
100.97

4th Quarter
101.20
95.50
-196.70
98.35
98.52

Arithmetic average of averages =

= 99.83
By expressing each quarterly average as percentage of 99.83 we will obtain
seasonal indices.
Seasonal index of 1st Quarter =
Seasonal index of 2nd Quarter =

X 100 = 105.30
X 100 = 95.21
Page 30

Seasonal index of 3rd Quarter =

Seasonal index of 4th Quarter =

X 100 = 100.97
X 100 = 98.52

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question18:-. Apply ratio to moving average method to calculate seasonal indices from the following data:
Year and month
2004
Jan.
Feb.
March
April
May
Jun
July
August
September
October
November
December
2005
Jan.
Feb.
March
April
May
Jun
July
August
September
October
November
December

Sales (in thousand unit)

10
12
13
15
16
16
17
18
18
19
22
22
10
12
11
12
13
15
15
17
18
20
22
24

Year and month

2006
Jan.
Fab.
March
April
May
Jun
July
August
September
October
November
December
2007
Jan.
Fab.
March
April
May
Jun
July
August
September
October
November
December

Sales (in thousand unit)

11
11
12
13
14
14
15
15
15
16
18
20
12
13
13
15
16
18
20
20
21
22
24
25

Solution COMPUTATION OF 12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGES

Year & Month

Sales (in
thousand
units)

12-month
moving total

12-month
moving
average

2-monht
moving total
of col. 4

Centered 12month moving

average (Col. 5
2)

Percentage of
centred 12month moving
average (col. 2
col.6) X100

Page 31

1
2004
Jan
Feb.
MArch
April
May
June
July

198

16.50
33.08

16.54

102.8

33.08

16.54

108.8

32.92

16.46

109.4

32.67

16.33

116.3

32.32

16.16

136.10

22

32.00

16.00

137.5

11

31.67

15.83

69.5

31.25

15.62

70.4

30.75

15.37

78.1

30.25

15.12

86.0

29.67

14.83

94.4

29.17

14.59

95.9

14.46
Centered 12month moving
average (Col. 5
2)
6

103.7
Percentage of
centred 12month moving
average (col. 2
col.6) X100
7

10
12
13
15
16
16
17
199

Aug

18
198

Sept.

189
Feb.

15.25
15.00

14
176

June

15.50

13
180

May

15.75

12
183

April

16.08

11
186

March

16.25

22
193

Dec.
2005
Jan.

16.42

19
195

Nov.

16.50

18
197

Oct.

16.58

14.67

14
174

14.50

July
Year & Month

15
Sales (in
thousand
units)

12-month
moving total

12-month
moving
average

28.92
2-monht
moving total
of col. 4

Page 32

173
Aug.

15
174
173
172
171
172

2006
Jan

March
April
May
June
July
August
Sept.
Oct.
Nov
Dec.
2007
Jan.
Year & Month

Sales (in

28.58

14.29

140.0

28.66

14.33

70.0

28.83

14.41

83.3

29.25

14.62

75.2

29.83

14.91

80.5

30.50

15.25

85.2

31.17

15.58

96.3

31.67

15.83

94.75

31.92

15.96

106.5

32.17

16.08

111.9

32.59

16.29

122.80

33.09

16.54

133.0

33.59

16.79

142.9

34.25

17.12

70.1

2-monht

Centered 12-

Percentage of

16.00
16.17
16.42
16.67
16.92

12
208
12-month

126.0

15.92

24
203

14.29

15.75

22
200

28.58

15.42

20
197

111.34

15.08

18
194

14.37

14.75

17
192

28.75

14.50

15
191

103.7

14.33

15
189

14.46

14.33

13
185

28.92

14.25

12
181

103.7

14.33

11
177

14.46

14.42

12
174

28.92
14.50

10
172

Feb.

14.42

17.33
12-month

Page 33

1
Feb.
March

thousand
units)

moving total

moving
average

moving total
of col. 4

2
13

5
34.91

month moving centred 12average (Col. 5 month moving

2)
average (col. 2
col.6) X100
6
7
17.45
74.5

211

17.58
35.41

17.70

73.4

35.83

17.91

83.7

36.17

18.08

88.5

36.42

18.21

98.8

2007

Median

Seasonal
Index

13
214

April

15
216

May

18.17

18
219

July
August
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

18.00

16
218

June

17.83

18.25

20
20
21
22
24
25

COMPUTATION OF SEASONAL INDICES

2004
2005
2006
Jan.
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
August
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

69.5
70.4
78.1
86.0
94.4
95.9
103.7
103.7
103.7
107.6
126.0
140.0

70.0
83.3
75.2
80.5
85.2
90.6
95.4
106.5
111.9
122.8
133.0
142.9

70.1
74.5
73.4
83.7
88.5
98.8

70.0
70.28
74.5
74.80
75.2
75.50
83.7
84.03
88.5
88.85
95.9
96.28
102.8
102.8
103.20
108.8
106.5
106.92
109.4
109.4
109.84
116.3
116.3
116.76
136.1
133.0
133.53
137.5
140.0
140.56
1,195.8
1200.55
It should be noted that there are only three values for each month since the moving average failed to provide average
for the first half of 2004 and the last half of 2007. Median has been used to average the figure given for the individual

Page 34

months. The sum of 12 values obtained is 1,195.8. It is necessary therefore to make an adjustment so that the total is
1,200.The adjustment is done by multiplying the average (median) values by
= 1.004.The final result thus
obtained gives us the seasonal indices. The interpretation of this index is very simple. Typical April sales are 84.03 per
cent of htose of the average month, typical November sales are 133.53 per cent of those of average month, and so on.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question19:- Apply the method of link relatives to the following data and calculate seasonal indices:
Quarter
I
II
III
IV

2003
6.0
6.5
7.8
8.7

2004
5.4
7.9
8.4
7.3

QUARTERLY FIGURES
2005
6.8
6.5
9.3
6.4

2006
7.2
5.8
7.5
8.5

2007
6.6
7.3
8.0
7.1

Answer:CALCULATION OF SEASONAL INDICES BY THE METHOD OF LINK

RELATIVES
Quarter
YEAR I
II
III
IV
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Arithmetic
average
Chain
relatives
Corrected
chain
relatives
Seasonal
indices

62.1
93.2
112.5
77.6

108.3
146.3
95.6
80.6
110.6
=86.35

120.0
106.3
143.1
129.3
109.6

111.5
86.9
68.8
113.3
88.8

=108.28

=121.66

=93.86

=108.28
108.28-1.675 =
106.605

=131.73
131.73 - 3.35 =
128.38

=123.64
123.64 5.025 =
118.615

X100 =

X100 =

100

100

= 88.18

X100 =

113.21
94.01
The calculations in the above table are explained below:
Chain relative of the first quarter ( on the basis of first quarter) = 100
Chain relative of the first quarter ( on the basis of the last quarter)

104.60

Page 35

=
= 106.7
The difference between these chain relatives = 106.7 100 = 6.7
Difference per quarter =
= 1.675
Adjusted chain relatives are obtained by subtracting 1 X 1.675, 2 X1.675, 3 X 1.675 from the
Average of corrected chain relatives
=

= 113.4

Seasonal variation index =

X 100

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question20:- The following are the monthly figures of

advertising expenditure and sales of a firm .it is generally

found that advertising expenditure has its impact on sales generally after 2 month .allowing for the time lag calculate
coefficient of correlation:
Month
Advertising
Sales (Rs)
month
Advertising
Sales (Rs)
expenditure Rs.
expenditure Rs.
Jan.
50
1,200
July
140
2,400
Feb.
60
1,500
August
160
2,600
March
70
1,600
September
170
2,800
April
90
2,000
October
190
2,900
May
120
2,200
November
200
3,100
June
150
2,500
December
250
3,900
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question21:- Plot the following data on a graph paper and ascertain trend by the method of semi-average:
Year
Production (in million tonnes)

2201
10

2002
120

2003
95

2004
105

2005
108

2006
102

2007
112

Question22:- Using three-yearly moving averages, determine the trend and short-term flections. Plot the original
and trend values on the same graph paper.
Year
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

Production (in 000 tonnes)

21
22
23
25
24

year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

Production (in 000 tonnes)

22
25
26
27
26

Solution:- Calculation of trend and Short-term Fluctuations

Year

Production

3-yeraly Totals

3-yearly average
(Trend values)

Short-term
Fluctuations
Page 36

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

21
22
23
25
24
22
25
26
27
26

66
70
72
71
71
73
78
79
-

Yc

(y-yc)

22.00
23.33
24.00
23.67
23.67
24.33
26.00
26.33
-

0
-0.33
+1.00
+0.33
-1.67
+0.67
0
+0.67
-

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question23:- Calculate the trend values by the method of 4-yearly moving average:
Year
Production

1998
464

1999
515

2000
518

2001
467

2002
502

2003
540

2004
557

2005
571

2006
586

2007
612

Solution:- Calculation of trend Values By

4 yearly Moving Averages Method
Year

Production

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

464
515
518
467
502
540
557
571
586
612

4-yearly moving
Totals
1964
2002
2027
2066
2170
2254
2326
-

4-yearly moving
Average
491.0
500.5
506.75
516.50
542.50
563.50
581.50
-

4-yearly moving
Average centered
495.75
503.63
511.63
529.50
553.00
572.50

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question24:- Calculate trend values by the method of least-squares from the data given below:
Year
2000
2001
2002
sales
80
90
92
Plot the data showing also the trend line.

2003
83

2004
94

2005
99

2006
92

2007
104

Solution:- Fitting Straight Line Trend By Method of Least Squares

Year

Sales

Deviations

Deviations

XY

X2

Yc

Page 37

From
2003.5

Multiplied
By 2
X
-7
-5
-3
-1
+1
+3
+5
+7

2000
80
-3.5
2001
90
-2.5
2002
92
-1.5
2003
83
-.5
2004
94
+.
2005
99
+1.5
2006
92
+2.5
2007
104
+3.5
N=8
Y = 734
The equation of the straight line trend is
Y = a +b X
Since X = 0, a = y/n= 734/8, b = Xy /X2 = 210/168 = 1.25

-560
-450
-276
-83
+94
+297
+460
+728
XY = 210

49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
X2 = 168

83.0
85.5
88.0
90.5
93.0
95.5
98.0
100.5
Yc = 734

110
Trend by the Method of Least Squares
105
100
Trend Line
95

90
85
80 2000

Actual Data
2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2007
Year
Y= 91.75 + 1.25 X
Y 2000 = 91.75 + 1.25(-7) = 91.5 8.75 = 83
For finding these values , double the value of B, i.e. 1.25X2 = 2.5 and add to the preceding value:
Y2001 = 83 + 2.5 85.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question25:- Calculate the treed values by the method of least squares. Also calculate the monthly increase in
sales and trend value for 2012.
Year
2001
2002
Sales (Rs
125
128

2003
133

2004
135

2005
140

2006
141

2007
143

Page 38

lakhs)

Solution:- Computation of trend Values

Year

Deviation from 2004

XY
X2
Yc
X
2001
125
-3
-375
9
125.679
2002
128
-2
-256
4
128.786
2003
133
-1
-133
1
131.893
2004
135
0
0
0
135.000
2005
140
+1
+140
1
138.107
2006
141
+2
+282
4
141.214
2007
143
+3
+429
9
144.321
2
N=7
Y = 945
EX=0
XY=87
X =28
Yc=945
The equation of the straight line trend is:
Y=a +b X
Since x =0, a = Y/N = 945/7 = 135
B = XY/X2 = 87/28=3.107
Hence Y = 135 +3.107X.Y2001 = 135
Y2001 = 135 +3.107(-3) =135 -9.321 = 125.679
Trend Value for 2012
For 2012, X shall be +8
Y2012 = 135 + 3.107(8) = 135 + 24.856 = 159.856
The estimated sales for the year 2012 is Rs. 159.856 lakhs.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question26:- The following data relate to the number of passenger cars (in million) sold from 200 to 2007
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003

Number
6.7
5.3
4.3
6.1

year
2004
2005
2006
2007

Number
5.6
7.5
5.8
6.1

(a) fit a straight line trend to the data thought 2005 only
(b) Use your result in (a) to estimate production in 2007 and compare with the actual production.

Solution:Fitting Straight line Trend

Year
No. of passenger
Cars(in Millions
2000
6.7
2001
5.3
2002
4.3
2003
6.1
2004
5.6

Deviations From 2005

X
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1

XY

X2

-33.5
-21.2
-12.9
-12.2
-5.6

25
16
9
4
1

Page 39

2005
7.9
0
0
0
2006
5.8
+1
+5.8
1
2007
6.1
+2
+12.2
4
N=8
y=47.8
X=-12
XY=-67.4 x2=60
The equation of the straight line trend is y =a+bX
Y=Na+bX
XY = a X +bX2
47.8 = 8a 12b
-67.4 = -12a +60b
Multiplying Eqn. (i) by 3 and Eqn. (ii) by 2
143.4 = 24a -36b
-134.8 = - 24a +120b
8.6 = 84b
84b = 8.6: b =8.6/84 = .102
Putting the value of (b) in eqn (i)
47.8 =8a -12 X .102
8a -1.224 = 47.8 or 8a = 47.8 +1.224
8a =49.024
a = 6.128
Thus the required equation is Y =6.128 +.102 X.
Estimate for 2007
For 2007 X is +2
Y = 6.128 +.102(2) = 6.128 +.204 = 6.322
Thus the estimated sale for 2007 is 6.322 million passenger cars. There is some difference in the actual sales
figure which is 6.1 million passenger cars and the estimated figure. Some difference is likely to be there between
the actual and estimated figures because estimates are based on certain assumption-it may be a rare chance
when actual and estimated figures may completely coincide.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question27:- the following table relates to the tourist arrivals (in million )during 2001to 2007 in India:
Years:
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Tourist
18
20
23
25
24
28
30
arrivals (in
millions):
Fit a straight line trend by the method of last squares and estimate the number of tourists that would arrive in the year
20011:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question28:- the sales of a company for the last eight years are given blow :
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Sales
52
45
98
92
110
185
175
220
Rs.(000)
Estimate sales figure for 2008 using an equation of the Y= abx where X= years and y= sales.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question29:- You are given the following trend equation:

Yc =20+0.8 X
Origin ,2002; X units ,one year ;Y units, production in million tonnes shift the origin to January 1,2003.

Page 40

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question30:- Calculate seasonal indices by the ratio-to-moving average method from the following data:
Years quarters
2004
2005
2006
2007
Q1
75
86
90
100
Q2
60
65
72
78
Q3
54
63
66
72
Q4
59
80
85
93
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question31:- the seasonal indices of the sales of readymade garment in a store are given below:
Quarter
January to march
April to June
July to September
October to December

Seasonal Index
98
90
82
130

If the total sales of garments in the first quarter is worth Rs. 1,00,000, determine how much worth of garments of this
type should be kept in stock to meet the demand in each of the remaining quarters.

Solution:-

Calculation of Estimated Stock

Quarter
Seasonal Index
Estimated Stock (Rs.)
Jan-March
98
1,00,000.00
April June
90
91,836.73
July Sept.
82
83,673.45
Oct-Dec.
130
1,32,653.06
These figures are calculated as follows:
S.I. for 2nd Qtr. = Figure for 1qtr. XS.I. For 2nd Qtr.
S.I. For Ist Qtr.
rd
S.I. for 3 Qtr. = Figure for 1 qtr. X S.I. for 3rd Qtr.
S.I. for 1st qtrr.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question32:- Compute the seasonal average, seasonal variations and seasonal indices for the following time
series:
Jan.
Feb.
March
April
May
June
July
August

2005
15
16
18
18
23
23
20
28

2006
23
22
28
27
31
28
22
28

2007
25
25
35
36
36
30
30
34

Page 41

September
October
November
December

29
33
33
38

32
37
34
44

38
47
41
53

Solution:- CALCULATION OF SEASONAL INDICES BY

The Method of Monthly Averages
Month

2005

2006

2007

Total

Average

% of average
of monthly
averages
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan.
15
23
25
63
21
70
Frb.
16
22
25
63
21
70
March
18
28
35
81
27
90
April
18
27
36
81
27
90
May
23
31
36
90
30
100
June
23
28
30
81
27
90
July
20
22
30
72
24
80
August
28
28
34
90
30
100
Sept.
29
32
38
99
33
110
Oct
33
37
47
117
39
130
Nov
33
34
41
108
36
120
Dec
38
44
53
135
45
150
Total
1,080
360
1,200
Average
90
30
100
Col.5 gives the total for each month for 3 years in col.6 each total of col.5 has been divided by 3 to obtain an average for
each month. The average of monthly averages is obtained by dividing the total of monthly averages by 12. In col.7 each
monthly averages has been expressed as a percentage of the average of monthly averages. Thus the percentage for
January is :
= 21/30 X 100 =70
Similarly the percentage for February is:
= 21/30X 100 = 70 etc.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question33:- Calculate the seasonal variation indices by the method of link relatives for the following figures:
Quarter
I
II
III
IV

2003
45
54
72
60

QUARTERLY FIGURES FOR FIVE YEARS

Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
48
49
52
60
56
63
65
70
63
70
75
84
96
65
72
66

Page 42

Answer:- 98.48 , 116.86, 102.62

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question34:- Calculated the three-monthly moving averages from the following data:
Jan.
57

Feb.
65

March
63

April
72

May
69

June
78

July
82

Aug Sep
81
90

Oct
92

Nov
95

Dec
97

Solution:- Calculation of 3 monthly moving Average

Month

Values

Jan
Feb.
March
April
May
June
July
August
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

57
65
63
72
69
78
82
81
90
92
95
97

3 monthly
Totals
185
200
204
219
229
241
253
263
277
284
-

3 monthly moving
average
61.67
66.67
68.00
73.00
76.33
80.33
84.33
87.67
92.33
94.67
--

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question35:- Calculate the seasonal index from the following data using the average method:
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

Its Quarter
72
76
74
76
78

2nd Quarter
68
70
66
74
74

3rd Quarter
80
82
84
84
86

4th Quarter
70
74
80
78
82

Solution:- Computation of Seasonal Indices

Year

1st qtr.

2nd Qtr.

3rd Qtr.

4th Qtr.

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total
Average

72
76
74
76
78
376
75.2

68
70
66
74
74
352
70.4

80
82
84
84
86
416
83.2

70
74
80
78
82
384
76.8

Page 43

Seasonal
Index

98.43

92.15

108.9

100.52

Grand Average = 75.2 +70.4 +83.2 + 76.8 = 305.6 = 76.4

4
4
st
st
Seasonal Index for 1 Qtr. = Average of 1 Qtr. X 100
Grand Average
=75.2/76.4 X 100 = 98.43
Seasonal Index for 2nd Qtr = 70.4/76.4X100 = 91.15
Seasonal Index for 3rd Qtr. = 83.2/76.4X100 = 108.9
Seasonal Index for 4th Qtr. = 76.8/76.4 X 100 = 100.52.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question36:- Fit a parabolic trend to the following time-series data and estimate the production in 2012:
Year
Production
(in 000 units)

2001
42

2002
49

2003
62

2004
75

2005
92

2006
122

2007
158

Answer:- We have a fit the equation

Y= a +b x cx2
To determine the values of a,b and c, we solve the following equations:
Y=Na+bX + cX2
XY =aX +bX2+ CX3
X2Y =a X2+ bX3+ CX4

Production
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
N=7

Y
42
49
62
75
92
122
158
y=600

X
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
X=0

X2
9
4
1
0
1
4
9

X3
-27
-8
-1
0
+1
+8
+27

X2=28
X3=0
Since X=0 and X3 =0, these equations are reduced to
Y = Na + cX2
XY=bX2
X2Y=aX2 + X4

X4
+81
+16
+1
0
+1
+16
+81

XY
-126
-98
-62
0
+92
+244
+474

X2Y
378
196
62
0
92
488
1422

X4=196

XY=524

X2Y=2638

Substituting the values

600= 7a+28c
524 = 28b
2,638 = 28a+196c

Page 44

From Eqn. (ii) b= 524/28 = 18.71

Multiplying Eq(i) by 4
2400 = 28a +112c
2638 = 28a +196C
- ------------------------238 = -84 c
C = 2.83
Fitting the value of c in Eqn.(i)
600 =7a +28(2.83)
7a = 600 -79.24= 520.76
A = 74.39
Hence the required equation would be
Y= 74.39 +18.71X +2.83x2
For 2010, X will be +8
Putting X = 8 in the above equation
Y2012 = 74.39 +18.71(8) -2.83(8)2 = 74.39 + 149.68 + 181.12 = 405.19
The estimate value for 2012 is 405.19 thousand units.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question37:- From the data given below, calculate seasonal indices for I,

II, III and IV quarters assuming the

trend is absent:

I
II
III
IV

2003
40
35
38
40

2004
42
37
39
38

Year
2005
41
35
38
40

2006
45
36
36
41

2007
44
38
38
42

Solution:- Computation of Seasonal Indices

Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total
Average
Seasonal
index

1st Qtr.
40
42
41
45
44
212
42.4
108.16

2nd Qtr.
35
37
35
36
38
181
36.2
92.35

3rd Qtr.
38
39
38
36
38
189
37.8
96.43

4th Qtr.
40
38
40
41
42
201
40.2
102.55

Page 45

The average of averages =

S.I for 1st Qtr. = 42.4/39.2 X100 = 108.16
S.I. for 2nd Qtr. = 36.2/39.2X100 = 92.35
S.I for 3rd Qtr. = 37.8/392 X100 = 96.43
S.I for 4th Qtr. = 40.2/39.2X100= 102.55
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question38:- The following table gives the profits of a concern for 5 years ending 2007:
Year
2003 2004 2005
Profit
1.6
4.5
13.8
(in Rs. Thousands)
Fit an equation of the type Yc = abX

2006
40.2

2007
125.0

SOLUTION:- Fitting Equation of The Type Y = ab

Year

Profits
X
Log Y
X2
Y
2003
1.6
-2
0.2041
4
2004
4.5
-1
0.6532
1
2005
13.8
0
1.1399
0
2006
40.2
+1
1.6042
1
2007
125.0
+2
2.0969
4
N =5
Y = 185.1
X=0
log Y = 5.6983 x2 = 10
We have to fit an equation of the type Yc = abx. Taking logarithms.
Log Y = Log a + X Log b.
=

X.Log Y
-0.4082
-0.6532
0
+1.6042
+4.1938
X.log Y = 4.7366

=1.1397

=
=0.474
Log Y =1.1397 +.474 X.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question39:- Below are Given

figures of production (lakh tones) of a sugar factory:

Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
Production 77
88
95
114
x
Fit a trend Y = ab to this data and tabulate the trend values.

2006
119

2007
127

Solution:- Fitting Trend Line of the Form Y = abx

Year

Production

2002
2003

77
88

Deviation
From
2004.5X2
X
-5
-3

LogY

X2

X Log Y

YC

1.8865
1.9445

25
9

-9.4325
-5.8335

78.70
87.22
Page 46

2004
2005
2006
2007
N=6

95
114
119
127
Y = 620

-1
+1
+3
+5
X =0

1.9777
2.0569
2.0755
2.1038
log Y =
12.0449

1
1
9
25
x2 =70

-1.9777
+2.0569
+6.2265
+10.519
x.log Y =
1.5587

96.65
107.10
118.70
131.50

=2.0075

=0.0223

Hence Log Y2002 = 2.0075 + .0223(-5)=2.0075-.0015=1.896

Y=AL 1.896=78.7
Log Y 2003= 2.0075 +.0223(-3) = 2.0075 - .0669 = 1.9406
Y = AL 1.9406 = 87.22
Log Y2004= 2.0075 +.0223(-1) = 1.9852
Y= AL 1.9852 = 96.65
Log Y2005= 2.0075 +.0223(1) = 2.0298
Y = AL 9.0298 = 107.1
Log Y 2006= 2.0075 +.0223(=3) =2.0744
Y= AL 2.0744 = 118.7
Log Y 2007 = 2.0075 +.0223(+5) = 2.119
Y=AL 2.119 = 131.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question40:- The production of cement by a firm in years 1 to 9 is given below:

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
5
5
6
7
8
Production 4
(in tones)
Calculate the trend values for the above series by the following two methods:
(i) 3 yearly moving average, and
(ii) Linear trend.

7
9

8
8

9
10

SOLUTION:- Calculation of 3 yearly Moving Average

Year

Production

3 yearly Totals

1
2
3
4
5
6

4
5
5
6
7
8

14
16
18
21
24

3-yearly moving
average
4.67
5.33
6.00
7.00
8.00
Page 47

7
8
9

9
8
10

25
27
-

8.33
9.00
-

Calculation of Linear Trend

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
N=9

Production Y
4
5
5
6
7
8
9
8
10
Y=62

X
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
X =0

XY
-16
-15
-10
-6
0
+8
+18
+24
+40
XY=43

X2
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
X2=60

Yc = a+ b X

Hence Y = 6.89 + 0.71 X.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question41:- Calculate trend values by the method of least squares from the data given below:
Year
Value

2002
75

2003
67

SOLUTION: Calculation
Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
N=7
Yc = a+ b X
Since X 0,

Value
Y
75
67
68
65
50
54
41
Y = 420

2004
68

2005
65

2006
50

2007
54

2008
41

of Trend by the Method of Least Squares

Deviation from
2005
X
-6
-3
-1
0
+2
+3
+5
X =0

XY

X2

Yc

-450
-201
-68
0
+100
+162
+205
XY = -252

36
9
1
0
4
9
25
X2 = 84

78
69
63
60
54
51
45
Yc=420

Page 48

b=
Hence Y = 60 -3 X
Y2002 = 60 -3(-6) = 60 + 18 =78
Y2003 = 60 -3 (-3) = 60 + 9 = 69
Y2004 = 60 -3(-1)=60+3 =63
Y2005 = 60
Y2006 = 60-3(2) =60 6 = 54
Y2007 = 60 -3(3) = 60-9=51
Y2008 = 60-3(5) = 60-15=45
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Question42:- Fit a straight line trend by least squares method and

figures of production of a sugar factory:
Year
2001
2002
Production
7
88
(000 tonnes)

2003
94

2004
85

2005
91

tabulate the trend values from the following

2006
98

2007
90

ANSWER:- Y =89+2X.

FORMULAE USED IN TIME SERIES

(i)Components of a Time Series

(a) Y = T +S+C +I - Additive Model
(b) Y = T X S X C X1 Multiplicative Model

(ii) Isolation of Trend

(a) Moving Average Method
(b) Method of Least Squares

(i) LINEAR TREND

Y = a + bx
(Y) = Na + b(X)
(Xy) = a (X) + b (X2)

(ii) Non-Linear Trend

Y = a + bX + cX2
(y) = Na + b (X) + c(X2)
(XY) = a(X) + b(X2)+ c(X2)
(X2Y) = a(X2) + b(X3) X c(X4)

(C) Exponential Curve

Y = A.Bx
Log Y = log A + X log B

Normal Equation
Page 49

log (Y) = N logA + logB(X)

(log Y) = logA(X) + log B(X2)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------By:-SANJAY AGGARWAL
FCA, FICWA.

AREA OF A STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Table for Areas under the Standard
Normal Curve from 0 to Z (Type II)
(p (0< X < x) = n ( o < Z < Z )

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8

0.0000
0.0398
0.0793
0.1179
0.1554
0.1915
0.2257
0.2580
0.2881

0.0040
0.0438
0.0832
0.1217
0.1591
0.1951
0.2291
0.2612
0.2910

0.0080
0.0478
0.0871
0.1255
0.1628
0.1985
0.2324
0.2642
0.2939

0.0120
0.0517
0.0910
0.1293
0.1664
0.2019
0.2357
0.2673
0.2967

0.0160
0.0557
0.0948
0.1331
0.1700
0.2054
0.2389
0.2704
0.2995

0.0199
0.0596
0.0987
0.1368
0.1736
0.2088
0.2422
0.2734
0.3023

0.0239
0.0636
0.1026
0.1406
0.1772
0.2123
0.2454
0.2764
0.3051

0.0279
0.0675
0.1064
0.1443
0.1808
0.2157
0.2486
0.2794
0.078

0.0319
0.0714
0.1103
0.1480
0.1844
0.2190
0.2518
0.2823
0.3106

0.0359
0.0753
0.1141
0.1517
0.1879
0.2224
0.2549
0.2825
0.3133

Page 50

0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9

0.3159
0.3413
0.3643
0.3849
0.4032
0.4192
0.4332
0.4452
0.4554
0.4641
0.4713
0.4772
0.4821
0.4861
0.4893
0.4918
0.4938
0.4953
0.4965
0.4974
0.4981
0.4986
0.4990
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999

0.3186
0.3438
0.3665
0.3869
0.4049
0.4207
0.4345
0.4463
0.4564
0.4649
0.4719
0.4778
0.4826
0.4864
0.4896
0.4920
0.4940
0.4955
0.4966
0.4975
0.4982
0.4987
0.4991
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999

0.3212
0.3461
0.3686
0.3888
0.4066
0.4222
0.4357
0.4474
0.4573
0.4656
0.4726
0.4783
0.4830
0.4868
0.4898
0.4922
0.4941
0.4956
0.4967
0.4976
0.4982
0.4987
0.4991
0.4994
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999

0.3238
0.3485
0.3708
0.3907
0.4082
0.4236
0.4370
0.4484
0.4582
0.4664
0.4732
0.4788
0.4834
0.4871
0.4901
0.4925
0.4943
0.4957
0.4968
0.4977
0.4983
0.4988
0.4991
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999

0.3264
0.3508
0.3729
0.3925
0.4099
0.4251
0.4382
0.4495
0.4591
0.4671
0.4738
0.4793
0.4838
0.4875
0.4904
0.4927
0.4945
0.4959
0.4969
0.4977
0.4984
0.4988
0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999

0.3289
0.3531
0.3749
0.3944
0.4115
0.4265
0.4394
0.4505
0.4599
0.4678
0.4744
0.4798
0.4842
0.4878
0.4906
0.4929
0.4946
0.4960
0.4970
0.4978
0.4984
0.4989
0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999

0.3315
0.3554
0.3770
0.3962
0.4131
0.4279
0.4406
0.4515
0.4608
0.4686
0.4750
0.4803
0.4846
0.4881
0.4909
0.4931
0.4948
0.4961
0.4971
0.4979
0.4985
0.4989
0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999

0.3340
0.3577
0.3790
0.3980
0.4147
0.4292
0.4418
0.4525
0.4616
0.4693
0.4756
0.4808
0.4850
0.4884
0.4911
0.4932
0.4949
0.4962
0.4972
0.4979
0.4985
0.4989
0.4992
0.4495
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999

0.3365
0.3599
0.3810
0.3997
0.4162
0.4306
0.4429
0.4535
0.4625
0.4699
0.4761
0.4812
0.4854
0.4887
0.4913
0.4934
0.4951
0.4963
0.4973
0.4980
0.4986
0.4990
0.4993
0.4995
0.4996
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999

0.3389
0.3621
0.3830
0.4015
0.4177
0.4319
0.4441
0.4545
0.4633
0.4706
0.4767
0.4817
0.4857
0.4890
0.4916
0.4936
0.4952
0.4964
0.4974
0.4981
0.4986
0.4990
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999

Chi-Square PDF(TWO SIDED Test at Alpha = 0.05)

0.3

0.25
0.15
0.
0.05
Page 51

10

15

20

Upper-tail area
df
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

0.995
0.000
0.010
0.072
0.207
0.412
0.676
0.989
1.344
1.735
2.156
2.603
3.074
3.565
4.075
4.601
5.142
5.697
6.265
6.844
7.434
8.034
8.643
9.260
9.886
10.520
11.160
11.808
12.461
13.121
13.787

0.99
0.000
0.020
0.115
0.297
0.554
0.872
1.239
1.647
2.088
2.558
3.053
3.571
4.107
4.660
5.229
5.812
6.408
7.015
7.633
8.260
8.897
9.542
10.196
10.586
11.524
12.198
12.879
13.565
14.256
14.953

0.975
0.001
0.051
0.216
0.484
0.831
1.237
1.690
2.180
2.700
3.247
3.816
4.404
5.009
5.629
6.262
6.908
7.564
8.231
8.907
9.591
10.283
10.982
11.689
12.401
13.120
13.844
14.573
15.308
16.047
16.791

0.95
0.004
0.103
0.352
0.711
1.145
1.635
2.167
2.733
3.325
3.940
4.575
5.226
5.892
6.571
7.261
7.962
8.672
9.390
10.117
10.851
11.591
12.338
13.091
13.848
14.611
15.379
16.151
16.928
17.708
18.493

0.9
0.016
0.211
0.584
1.064
1.610
2.204
2.833
3.490
4.168
4.865
5.578
6.304
7.042
7.790
8.547
9.312
10.085
10.865
11.651
12.443
13.240
14.041
14.848
15.659
16.473
17.292
18.114
18.939
19.768
20.599

0.75
0.102
0.575
1.213
1.923
2.675
3.455
4.255
5.071
5.899
6.737
7.584
8.438
9.299
10.165
11.037
11.912
12.792
13.675
14.562
15.452
16.344
17.240
18.137
19.037
19.939
20.843
21.749
22.657
23.567
24.478

0.5
0.455
1.386
2.366
3.357
4.351
5.348
6.346
7.344
8.343
9.342
10.341
11.340
12.340
13.339
14.399
15.339
16.338
17.338
18.338
19.337
20.337
21.337
22.337
23.337
24.337
25.336
26.336
27.336
28.336
29.336

0.25
1.323
2.773
4.108
5.385
6.626
7.841
9.037
10.219
11.389
12.549
13.701
14.845
15.984
17.117
18.245
19.369
20.489
21.605
22.718
23.828
24.935
26.039
27.141
28.241
29.339
30.435
31.528
32.620
33.711
34.800

0.1
2.706
4.605
6.251
7.779
9.236
10.645
12.017
13.362
14.684
15.987
17.275
18.549
19.812
21.064
22.307
23.542
24.769
25.989
27.204
28.412
29.615
30.813
32.007
33.196
34.382
35.563
36.741
37.916
39.087
40.256

0.05
3.841
5.991
7.815
9.488
11.71
12.592
14.067
15.507
16.919
18.307
19.675
21.026
22.362
23.685
24.996
26.296
27.587
28.869
30.144
31.410
32.671
33.924
35.172
36.415
37.652
38.885
40.113
41.337
42.557
43.773

0.025
5.024
7.378
9.348
11.143
12.833
14.119
16.013
17.535
19.023
20.483
21.920
23.337
24.736
26.119
27.488
28.845
30.191
21.526
32.852
34.170
35.479
36.781
38.076
39.364
40646
41.923
43.195
44.461
45.722
46.979

0.02
5.412
7.824
9.837
11.668
13.338
15.033
16.622
18.168
19.679
21.161
22.618
24.054
25.472
26.873
28.259
29.633
30.995
32.346
33.687
35.020
36.343
37.659
38.968
40.270
41.566
42.856
44.140
45.419
46.693
47.962

0.01
6.635
9.210
11.45
13.277
15.086
16.812
18.475
20.090
21.666
23.209
24.725
26.217
27.688
29.141
30.578
32.000
33.409
34.805
36.191
37.566
38.932
40.289
41.638
42.980
44.314
45.642
46.963
48.278
49.588
50.892

0.005
7.879
10.579
12.838
14.860
16.750
18.548
20.278
21.955
23.589
25.188
26.757
28.300
29.819
31.319
32.801
34.267
35.718
37.156
38.582
39.997
41.401
42.796
44.181
45.559
46.928
48.290
49.645
50.993
52.336
53.672

F(.10.df1, df2)

Page 52

F TABLE FOR ALPHA=.05

DF FOR
DENOMINATOR(V2)

10

12

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
40
60
120

161.448
18.513
10.128
7.709
6.608
5.987
5.591
5.318
5.117
4.965
4.844
4.747
4.667
4.600
4.543
4.494
4.451
4.414
4.381
4.351
4.325
4.301
4.279
4.260
4.242
4.225
4.210
4.196
4.183
4.171
4.085
4.001
3.920

199.500
19.000
9.552
6.944
5.786
5.143
4.737
4.459
4.257
4.103
3.982
3.885
3.806
3.739
3.682
3.634
3.592
3.555
3.522
3.493
3.467
3.443
3.422
3.403
3.385
3.369
3.354
3.340
3.328
3.316
3.232
3.150
3.072

215.707
19.164
9.277
6.591
5.410
4.757
4.347
4.066
3.863
3.708
3.587
3.490
3.411
3.344
3.287
3.239
3.197
3.160
3.127
3.098
3.073
3.049
3.028
3.009
2.991
2.975
2.960
2.947
2.934
2.922
2.839
2.758
2.680

224.583
19.247
9.117
6.388
5.192
4.534
4.120
3.838
3.633
3.478
3.357
3.259
3.179
3.112
3.056
3.007
2.965
2.928
2.895
2.866
2.840
2.817
2.796
2.776
2.759
2.743
2.728
2.714
2.701
2.690
2.606
2.525
2.447

230.162
19.296
9.014
6.256
5.050
4.387
3.972
3.688
3.482
3.326
3.204
3.106
3.025
2.958
2.901
2.852
2.810
2.773
2.740
2.711
2.685
2.661
2.640
2.621
2.603
2.587
2.572
2.558
2.545
2.534
2.450
2.368
2.290

233.986
19.330
8.941
6.163
4.950
4.284
3.866
3.581
3.374
3.217
3.095
2.996
2.915
2.848
2.791
2.741
2.699
2.661
2.628
2.599
2.573
2.549
2.528
2.508
2.490
2.474
2.459
2.445
2.432
2.421
2.336
2.254
2.175

236.768
19.353
8.887
6.094
4.876
4.207
3.787
2.501
3.293
3.136
3.012
2.913
2.832
2.764
2.707
2.657
2.614
2.577
2.544
2.514
2.488
2.464
2.442
2.423
2.405
2.388
2.373
2.359
2.346
2.334
2.249
2.167
2.087

238.883
19.371
8.845
6.041
4.818
4.147
3.726
3.438
3.230
3.072
2.948
2.849
2.767
2.699
2.641
2.591
2.548
2.510
2.477
2.447
2.421
2.397
2.375
2.355
2.337
2.321
2.305
2.291
2.278
2.266
2.180
2.097
2.016

240.543
19.385
8.812
5.999
4.773
4.099
3.677
3.388
3.179
3.020
2.896
2.796
2.714
2.646
2.588
2.538
2.494
2.456
2.423
2.393
2.366
2.342
2.320
2.300
2.282
2.266
2.250
2.236
2.223
2.211
2.124
2.040
1.959

241.882
19.396
8.786
5.964
4.735
4.060
3.637
3.347
3.137
2.978
2.854
2.753
2.671
2.602
2.544
2.494
2.450
2.412
2.378
2.348
2.321
2.297
2.275
2.255
2.237
2.220
2.204
2.190
2.177
2.165
2.077
1.993
1.911

243.906
19.413
8.745
5.912
4.678
4.000
3.575
3.284
3.073
2.913
2.788
2.687
2.604
2.534
2.475
2.425
2.381
2.342
2.308
2.278
2.250
2.226
2.204
2.183
2.165
2.148
2.132
2.118
2.105
2.092
2.004
1.917
1.834

F(.10,df1, df2)

Page 53

F TABLE FOR ALPHA=.10

DF FOR
DENOMINATOR(V2)

10

12

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
40
60
120

39.863
8.526
5.538
4.545
4.060
3.776
3.589
3.458
3.360
3.285
3.225
3.177
3.136
3.102
3.073
3.048
3.026
3.007
2.990
2.975
2.961
2.949
2.937
2.927
2.918
2.909
2.901
2.894
2.887
2.881
2.835
2.791
2.748

49.500
9.000
5.462
4.325
3.780
3.463
3.257
3.113
3.006
2.924
2.860
2.807
2.763
2.726
2.695
2.668
2.645
2.624
2.606
2.589
2.575
2.561
2.549
2.538
2.528
2.519
2.511
2.503
2.495
2.489
2.440
2.393
2.347

53593
9.162
5.391
4.191
3.619
3.289
3.074
2.924
2.813
2.728
2.660
2.606
2.560
2.522
2.490
2.462
2.437
2.416
2.397
2.380
2.365
2.351
2.339
2.327
2.317
2.307
2.299
2.291
2.283
2.276
2.226
2.177
2.130

55.833
9.243
5.343
4.107
3.520
3.181
2.961
2.806
2.693
2.605
2.536
2.480
2.434
2.395
2.361
2.333
2.308
2.286
2.266
2.249
2.233
2.219
2.207
2.195
2.184
2.174
2.165
2.157
2.149
2.142
2.091
2.041
1.992

57.240
9.293
5.309
4.051
3.453
3.108
2.883
2.726
2.611
2.522
2.451
2.394
2.347
2.307
2.273
2.244
2.218
2.196
2.176
2.158
2.142
2.128
2.115
2.103
2.02
2.082
2.073
2.064
2.057
2.049
1.997
1.946
1.896

58.204
9.326
5.285
4.010
3.405
3.055
2.827
2.668
2.551
2.461
2.389
2.331
2.283
2.243
2.208
2.178
2.152
2.130
2.109
2.091
2.075
2.061
2.047
2.035
2.024
2.014
2.005
1.996
1.988
1.980
1.927
1.875
1.824

58.906
9.349
5.266
3.979
3.368
3.014
2.785
2.624
2.505
2.414
2.342
2.283
2.234
2.193
2.158
2.128
2.102
2.079
2.058
2.040
2.023
2.008
1.995
1.983
1.971
1.961
1.952
1.943
1.935
1.927
1.873
1.819
1.767

59.439
9.367
5.252
3.955
3.339
2.983
2.752
2.589
2.469
2.377
2.304
2.245
2.195
2.154
2.119
2.088
2.061
2.038
2.017
1.999
1.982
1.967
1.953
1.941
1.929
1.919
1.909
1.900
1.892
1.884
1.829
1.775
1.722

59.858
9.381
5.240
3.936
3.316
2.958
2.725
2.561
2.440
2.347
2.274
2.214
2.164
2.122
2.086
2.055
2.028
2.005
1.984
1.965
1.948
1.933
1.919
1.906
1.895
1.884
1.874
1.865
1.857
1.849
1.793
1.738
1.684

60.195
9.392
5.230
3.920
3.297
2.937
2.703
2.538
2.416
2.323
2.248
2.188
2.138
2.095
2.059
2.028
2.001
1.977
1.956
1.937
1.920
1.904
1.890
1.877
1.866
1.855
1.845
1.836
1.827
1.819
1.763
1.707
1.652

60.705
9.408
5.216
3.896
3.268
2.905
2.668
2.502
2.379
2.284
2.209
2.147
2.097
2.054
2.017
1.985
1.958
1.933
1.912
1.892
1.875
1.859
1.845
1.832
1.820
1.809
1.799
1.790
1.781
1.773
1.715
1.657
1.601

LOGORITHMA TABLES
COMMON LOGORITHAMS
10

0
0000

0043

2
0086

3
0128

4
0170

11

0414

0453

0492

0531

0569

5
0212

6
0253

7
0294

8
0334

9
0374

0607

0645

0682

0719

0755

1
5
4
4
4

2
9
8
8
7

3
13
12
12
11

4
17
16
16
15

5
21
20
20
18

6
26
24
23
22

7
30
28
27
26

8
34
32
31
29

9
38
36
35
33

Page 54

12

0792

0828

0864

0899

0934
0969

1004

1038

1072

1106

1303

1335

1367

1399

1430

1614

1644

1673

1703

1732

1903

1931

1959

1987

2014

2175

2201

2227

2253

2279

2430

2455

2480

2504

2529

2672

2695

2718

2742

2765

13

1139

1173

1206

1239

1271

14

1461

1492

1523

1553

1584

15

1761

1790

1818

1547

1875

16

2041

2068

2095

2122

2148

17

2304

2330

2355

2380

2405

18

2553

2577

2601

2625

2648

19

2788

2810

2833

2856

2878

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

3010
3222
3424
3617
3802
3979
4150
4314
4472
4624
4771
4914
5051
5185
5315
5441
5563
5682
5798
5911
6021
6128
6232
6335
6435
6535
6628
6721

3032

3054
3263
6464
3655
3838
4014
4183
4346
4502
4654
4800
4942
5079
5211
5340
5464
5587
5705
5821
5933
6042
6149
6253
6355
6454
6551
6646
6739

3075
3284
3483
3674
3856
4031
4200
4362
4518
4669
4814
4955
5092
5224
5353
5478
5599
5717
5832
5944
6053
6160
6263
6365
6464
6561
6656
6749

3096
3304
3502
3692
9874
4048
4216
4378
4533
4683
4829
4969
5105
5237
5366
5490
5611
5729
5843
5955
6064
6170
5274
6375
6474
6571
6665
6758

2900
3118
3324
3522
3711
3892
4065
4232
4393
4548
4698
4843
4983
5119
5250
5378
5502
5623
5740
5855
5966
6075
6180
6284
6385
6484
6580
6675
6767

2923
3139
3345
3541
3729
3909
4082
4249
4409
4564
4713
4857
4997
5132
5263
5391
5514
5635
5752
5866
5977
6085
6191
6294
6395
6493
6590
6684
6776

2945
3160
3365
3560
3747
3927
4099
4265
4425
4579
4728
4871
5011
5145
5276
5403
5527
5647
5763
5877
5988
6096
6201
6304
6405
6503
6609
6702
6794

2967
3181
3385
3579
3766
3945
4116
4281
4440
4594
4742
4886
5024
5159
5289
5416
5539
5658
5775
5888
5999
6107
6212
6314
6415
6513
6609
6702
6794

48
49

6812
6902

6821

6830
6920

6839
6928

6848
6937

6857
6946

6866
6955

6884
6964

6884
6972

2989
3201
3404
3598
3784
3962
4133
4298
4456
4609
4757
4900
5038
5172
5302
5428
5551
5670
5786
5899
6010
6117
6222
6325
6425
6522
6618
6712
68
03
6893
6981

3243
3444
3636
3820
3997
4166
4330
4487
4639
4786
4928
5065
5198
5328
5453
5575
5694
5809
5922
6031
6138
6243
6345
6444
6542
6637
6730

6911

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

7
7
6
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

11
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

18
17
17
16
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5

21
20
20
19
19
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5

25
24
24
23
22
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6

28
27
27
26
25
25
23
22
22
21
20
20
19
18
18
17
17
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7

32
31
31
29
29
26
26
25
24
23
23
22
21
21
20
19
19
18
17
17
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
8
8

1
1

2
2

3
3

4
4

4
4

5
4

6
6

7
7

8
8

4 5

LOGORITHMS TABLES
COMMON LOGORITHAMS
0

Page 55

50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

6990
7076
7160
7243
7324
7404
7482
7559
7634
7709
7782
7853
7924
7993
8062
8129
8195
8261
8325
8388
8451
8513
8573
8633
8692
8751
8808
8865
8921
8976
9031
9085
9138
9191
9243
9294
9345
9395
9445
9494
9542
9590
9638
9685
9731
9777
9823
9868
9912
9956

6998
7084
7168
7251
7332
7412
7490
7566
7642
7716
7789
7860
7931
8000
8069
8136
8202
8267
8331
8395
8457
8519
8579
8639
8698
8756
8814
8871
8927
8982
9036
9090
9143
9196
9248
9299
9350
9400
9450
9499
9547
9595
9643
9689
9736
9782
9827
9872
9917
9961

7007
7093
7177
7259
7340
7419
7497
7574
7649
7723
7796
7868
7938
8007
8075
8142
8209
8274
8338
8401
8463
8525
8585
8645
8704
8762
8820
8876
8932
8987
9042
9096
9149
9201
9253
9304
9355
9405
9455
9504
9552
9600
9647
9694
9741
9786
9832
9877
9921
9965

7016
7101
7185
7267
7348
7427
7505
7582
7657
7731
7803
7875
7945
8014
8082
8149
8215
8280
8344
8407
8470
8531
8591
8651
8710
8768
8825
8882
8938
8993
9047
9101
9154
9206
9258
9309
9360
9410
9460
9509
9557
9605
9652
9699
9745
9791
9836
9881
9926
9969

7024
7110
7193
7275
7356
7435
7513
7589
7664
7738
7810
7882
7952
8021
8089
8156
8222
8287
8351
8414
8476
8537
8597
8657
8716
8774
8831
8887
8943
8998
9253
9106
9159
9212
9263
9315
9365
9415
9465
9513
9562
9609
9657
9703
9750
9795
9841
9886
9930
9974

7033
7118
7202
7284
7364
7443
7520
7597
7672
7745
7818
7889
7959
8028
8096
8162
8228
8293
8357
8420
8482
8543
8603
8663
8722
8779
8837
8893
8949
9004
9058
9112
9165
9217
9269
9320
9370
9420
9469
9518
9566
9614
9661
9708
9754
9800
9845
9890
9934
9978

7042
7126
7210
7292
7372
7451
7528
7604
7679
7752
7825
7896
7966
8035
8102
8169
8235
8299
8363
8426
8488
8549
8609
8669
8727
8785
8842
8899
8954
9009
9063
9117
9170
9222
9274
9325
9375
9425
9474
9523
9571
9619
9666
9713
9759
9805
9850
9894
9939
9983

7050
7135
7218
7300
7380
7459
7536
7612
7686
7760
7832
7903
7973
8041
9109
8176
8241
8306
8370
8432
8494
8555
8615
8675
8733
8791
8848
8904
8960
9015
9069
9122
9175
9227
9279
9330
9380
9430
9479
9528
9576
9624
9671
9717
9763
9809
9854
9899
9943
9987

7059
7143
7226
7308
7388
7466
7543
7619
7694
7767
7839
7910
7980
8048
8116
8182
8248
8312
8376
8439
8500
8561
8621
8681
8739
8797
8854
8910
8965
9020
9074
9128
9180
9232
9284
9335
9385
9435
9484
9533
9581
9628
9675
9722
9768
9814
9859
9903
9948
9991

7067
7152
7235
7316
7396
7474
7551
7627
7701
7774
7846
7917
7987
8055
8122
8189
8254
8319
8382
8445
8506
8567
8627
8686
8745
8802
8859
8915
8971
9025
9079
9133
9186
9238
9289
9340
9390
9440
9489
9538
9586
9633
9680
9727
9773
9818
9863
9908
9952
9996

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3

8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

ANTILOGORITHMS TABLES

Page 56

0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
0.48
0.49

0
1000
1023
1047
1072
1096
1122
1148
1175
1202
1230
1259
1288
1318
1349
1380
1413
1445
1479
1514
1549
1585
1622
1660
1698
1738
1778
1820
1862
1905
1950
1995
2042
2089
2138
2188
2239
2291
2344
2399
2455
2512
2570
2630
2692
2754
2818
2884
2951
3020
3090

1
1002
1026
1050
1074
1099
1125
1151
1178
1205
1233
1262
1291
1321
1352
1384
1416
1449
1483
1517
1552
1589
1626
1663
1702
1742
1782
1824
1866
1910
1954
2000
2046
2094
2143
2193
2244
2296
2350
2404
2460
2518
2576
2636
2698
2761
2825
2891
2958
3027
3097

2
1005
1028
1052
1076
1102
1127
1153
1180
1208
1236
1265
1294
1324
1355
1387
1419
1452
1486
1521
1556
1592
1629
1667
1706
1746
1786
1828
1871
1914
1959
2004
2051
2099
2148
2198
2249
2301
2355
2410
2466
2523
2582
2642
2704
2767
2831
2897
2965
3034
3105

1007

1009

1012

1014

1016

1019

1021

1030
1033
1054 111057
1079
1081
1104
1107
1130
1132
1156
1159
1183
1186
1211
1213
1239
1242
1268
1271
1297
1300
1327
1330
1358
1361
1390
1393
1422
1426
1455
1459
1489
1493
1524
1528
1560
1563
1596
1600
1633
1637
1671
1675
1710
1714
1750
1754
1791
1795
1832
1837
1875
1879
1919
1923
1963
1968
2009
2014
2056
2061
2104
2109
2153
2158
2203
2208
2254
2259
2307
2312
2360
2366
2415
2421
2472
2477
2529
2535
2588
2594
2649
2655
2710
2716
2773
2780
2838
2844
2904
2911
2972
2979
3041
3048
3112
3119

1035
1059
1084
1109
1135
1161
1189
1216
1245
1274
1303
1334
1365
1396
1429
1462
1496
1531
1567
1603
1641
1679
1718
1758
1799
1841
1884
1928
1972
2018
2065
2113
2163
2213
2265
2317
2371
2427
2483
2541
2600
2661
2723
2786
2851
2917
2985
3055
3126

1038
1062
1086
1112
1138
1164
1191
1219
1247
1276
1306
1337
1368
1400
1432
1466
1500
1535
1570
1607
1644
1683
1722
1762
1803
1845
1888
1932
1977
2023
2070
2118
2168
2218
2270
2323
2377
2432
2489
2547
2606
2667
2729
2793
2858
2924
2992
3062
3133

1040
1064
1089
1114
1140
1167
1194
1222
1250
1279
1309
1340
1371
1403
1435
1469
1503
1538
1574
1611
1648
1687
1726
1766
1807
1849
1892
1936
1982
2028
2075
2123
2173
2223
2275
2328
2382
2438
2495
2553
2612
2673
2735
2799
2864
2931
2999
3069
3141

1042
1067
1091
1117
1143
1169
1197
1225
1253
1282
1312
1343
1374
1406
1439
1472
1507
1542
1578
1614
1652
1690
1730
1770
1811
1854
1897
1941
1986
2032
2080
2128
2178
2228
2280
2333
2388
2443
2500
2559
2618
2679
2742
2805
2871
2938
3006
3076
3148

1045
1069
1094
1119
1146
1172
1199
1227
1256
1285
1315
1346
1377
1409
1442
1476
1510
1545
1581
1618
1656
1694
1734
1774
1816
1858
1901
1945
1991
2037
2084
2133
2183
2234
2286
2339
2393
2449
2506
2564
2624
2685
2748
2812
2877
2944
3013
3083
3155

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

2
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

4
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3

5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4

6
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

7
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5

8
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6

9
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6

Page 57

ANTILOGORITHMS TABLES
0.50
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.56
0.57
0.58
0.59
0.60
0.61
0.62
0.63
0.64
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.70
0.71
0.72
0.73
0.74
0.75
0.76
0.77
0.78
0.79
0.80
0.81
0.82
0.83
0.84
0.85
0.86
0.87
0.88
0.89
0..90
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99

3 4

3162
3236
3311
3388
3467
3548
3631
3715
3802
3890
3981
4074
4169
4266
4365
4467
4571
4677
4786
4898
5012
5129
5248
5370
5495
5623
5754
5888
6026
6166
6310
6457
6607
6761
6918
7079
7244
7413
7586
7762
7943
8128
8318
8511
8710
8913
9120
9333
9550
9772

3170
3243
3319
3396
3475
3556
3639
3724
3811
3899
3990
4083
4178
4276
4375
4477
4581
4688
4797
4909
5023
5140
5260
5383
5508
5636
5768
5902
6039
6180
6324
6471
6622
6776
6934
7096
7261
7430
7603
7780
7962
8147
8337
8531
8730
8933
9141
9354
9572
9795

3177
3251
3327
3404
3483
3565
3648
3733
3819
3908
3999
4093
4188
4285
4385
4487
4592
4699
4808
4920
5035
5152
5272
5395
5521
5649
5781
5916
6053
6194
6339
6486
6637
6792
6950
7112
7278
7447
7621
7798
7980
8166
8356
8551
8750
8954
9102
9376
9594
9817

3184
3258
333434
3412
3491
3573
3656
3741
3828
3917
4009
4102
4198
4295
4395
4498
4603
4710
4819
4932
5047
5164
5284
5408
5534
5662
5794
5929
6067
6209
6353
6501
6653
6808
6966
7129
7295
7404
7638
7816
7998
8185
8375
8570
8770
8974
9183
9397
9616
9840

3192
3266
3342
3420
3499
3581
3664
3750
3837
3926
4018
4111
4207
4305
4406
4508
4613
4721
4831
4943
5058
5176
5297
5420
5546
5675
5808
5943
6081
6223
6368
6516
6668
6823
6982
7145
7311
7482
7656
7834
8017
8204
8395
8590
8790
8995
9204
9419
9638
9863

3199
3273
3350
3428
3508
3589
3673
3758
3846
3969
4027
4121
4217
4315
4416
4519
4624
4732
4842
4955
5070
5188
5309
5433
5559
5689
5821
5957
6095
6237
6383
6531
6683
6839
6998
7161
7328
7499
7674
7852
8035
8222
8414
8610
8810
9016
9226
9441
9661
9886

3206
3281
3357
3436
3516
3597
3681
3767
3855
3945
4036
4130
4227
4315
4426
4529
4634
4742
4853
4966
5082
5200
5321
5445
5572
5702
5834
5970
6109
6252
6397
6546
6699
6855
7015
7178
7345
7516
7691
7870
8054
8241
8433
8630
8831
9036
9247
9462
9683
9908

3214
3289
3365
3443
3524
3606
3690
3776
3864
3954
4046
4140
4236
4335
4436
4539
4645
4753
4864
4977
5093
5212
5333
5458
5585
5715
5848
5984
6124
6266
6412
6561
6714
6871
7031
7194
7362
7534
7709
7889
8072
8260
8453
8650
8851
9057
9268
9484
9705
9931

3221
3296
3373
3451
3532
3614
3698
3784
3873
3963
4055
4150
4246
4345
4446
4550
4656
4764
4875
4989
5105
5224
5346
5470
5598
5728
5861
5998
6138
6281
6427
6577
6730
6887
7047
7211
7379
7551
7727
7909
8091
8279
8472
8670
8872
9078
9290
9506
9727
9954

3228
3304
3381
3459
3540
3622
3707
3793
3882
3972
4064
4159
4256
4355
4457
4560
4667
4775
4887
5000
5117
5236
5358
5483
5610
5741
5875
6012
6152
6295
6442
6592
6745
6902
7063
7228
7396
7598
7745
7925
8110
8299
8492
8690
8892
9099
9311
9528
9750
9977

1
1
1
1
1
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1
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1
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1
1
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1
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1
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1
1
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2
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2
2
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1
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2
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4
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4
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5
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6
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7
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3
3
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4
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