Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 142 (2021) 110377

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Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

Nonlinear Science, and Nonequilibrium and Complex Phenomena
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/chaos

Dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic

COVID-19 considering both intra and inter zone mobilization factors
with rate of detection
Mousam Ghosh a,∗, Swarnankur Ghosh b, Suman Ghosh c, Goutam Kumar Panda d,
Pradip Kumar Saha d
a
Department of Electrical Engineering, Ramkrishna Mahato Government Engineering College Purulia (Formerly Purulia Government Engineering College),
Purulia, West Bengal, India
b
Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology Meghalaya, Shillong, Meghalaya, India
c
Department of Electrical Engineering, Techno Main Salt Lake, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
d
Department of Electrical Engineering, Jalpaiguri Govt. Engineering College, Jalpaiguri, West Bengal, India

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Most of the widely populated countries across the globe have been observing vicious spread and detri-
Received 22 June 2020 mental effects of pandemic COVID-19 since its inception on December 19. Therefore to restrict the spread-
Revised 4 October 2020
ing of pandemic COVID-19, various researches are going on in both medical and administrative sectors.
Accepted 16 October 2020
The focus has been given in this research keeping an administrative point of view in mind. In this paper
Available online 19 October 2020
a dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra
Keywords: and inter zone mobilization factors with rate of detection has been proposed. Few factors related to in-
Pandemic COVID-19 tra zone mobilization; inter zone mobilization and rate of detection are the key points in the proposed
Infected population model. Various remedial steps are taken into consideration in the form of operating procedures. Further
Intra zone mobilization such operating procedures are applied over the model in standalone or hybridized mode and responses
Inter zone mobilization are reported in this paper in a case-studies manner. Further zone-wise increase in infected population
Rate of detection
due to the spreading of pandemic COVID-19 has been studied and reported in this paper. Also the pro-
posed model has been applied over the real world data considering three states of India and the predicted
responses are compared with real data and reported with bar chart representation in this paper.
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Recent outbreak of Corona virus disease or COVID-19 global
pandemic turns out to be one of the most severe threats to the
mankind since first inception of the disease in 2019 at Wuhan,
China due to a novel virus whose specific source of origin is not yet
identified [1–3]. Also, after the inception, this virus spreads rapidly,
first in China and then in more than 80 countries across the globe
[4]. One of the preliminary reasons behind such rapid spreading of
the disease has been identified as the contagious nature of the al-
leged virus which enables cumulative increase in the number of
infections through daily anthropologic activities that require so-
cial interactions [5]. Also the stability property of the disease free
equilibrium of COVID-19 indicates that proper vaccination for cure
∗
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: mousamghoshee@gmail.com, mousamghoshee@rkmgec.ac.in
(M. Ghosh).
from this virus is not yet developed [6]. Therefore, social distancing
and rapid detection test have been evolved as the most acceptable
preventive measures in recent time [7,8]. Social distancing is at-
tempted to achieve by different administrative bodies through lo-
cal and global lockdown. Such lockdowns are imposed through the
restriction on daily human activities as well as population mobi-
lization in both local and global level [9,10]. On the other hand,
rapid tests have been performed to detect the presence of the virus
among the potential victims and if detected, sterner social distanc-
ing is being imposed on the infected persons through quarantine
and isolation with proper medication and observatory procedure
[11]. But such social lockdown and restriction on human mobi-
lization can bring some severe and sweeping impact on economic
sectors which in turn cause some detrimental effects on both so-
cial life and mental health of the human being [1–4]. Therefore,
the prediction of probable duration of lockdown is absolute neces-
sity and needs to be addressed as top priority which requires con-
tinuous monitoring of the spreading pattern and timeline of the
COVID-19 both locally and globally as well as the recovery rate and

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110377
0960-0779/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
M. Ghosh, S. Ghosh, S. Ghosh et al.
pattern of infected population [11]. But the continuously changing
genetic structure of the respective virus make prior prediction of
the disease difficult and ambiguous [5,11] which in turn brings de-
lay in devising plan on omitting lockdown fully or partially.
Under such scenario, the demand for precise model to predict
the exact nature of the spread of COVID-19 is ever increasing to
envisage a proper protective strategy of preventing the aforemen-
tioned pandemic. All such predictive models can be broadly di-
vided in two categories. In first category, samples are collected
from one or more certain population considering different pan-
demic parameters such as doubling rate [12], basic reproduction
factor [13], serial intermission [14] etc and then perform statisti-
cal analysis on collected samples to make required prediction of
aforementioned pandemic. Also based on such analysis, several sta-
tistical models have been proposed to detect actual inter country
infected cases [15] as well as to trace unidentified cases [16], to de-
termine the effects of local and global migration of people [17,18]
etc. Also different advanced statistical techniques have been used
to predict the outbreak of corona virus in [19–23].
In second category, dynamic modelling has been used to assess
the nature of COVID-19 pandemic [24] more accurately. Initially
the final size and timeline of COVID-19 pandemic was predicted
based on dynamic SIR model [25]. More advanced SIER model was
brought in use to predict different factors associated with the dis-
ease and possible measures [26,27]. In such dynamic models, sev-
eral factors like transmission process and risk [28], effects of isola-
tion and quarantine [29] etc., are also included to make prediction
more accurate. An advanced version of SIER model namely e-ISHR
model has also been proposed to introduce the effects of time de-
lay in the existing models [30]. Also, as the dynamics of COVID-
19 pandemic is inherently nonlinear in nature like other epidemics
[24–30], there will always be the provision of implementing some
Fig. 1. Block diagram of the proposed model.
2
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 142 (2021) 110377
state of the art nonlinear dynamical methods proposed in recent
times [31–36] to make different forecast of spreading dynamics of
COVID-19.
Various recent studies in the field of pandemic COVID-19 re-
flect the need of research in relation to determine spreading pat-
tern of the pandemic and influence of different factors on it more
accurately, which motivates the current studies performed in this
paper. In view of these, a dynamic model to predict the pattern
and volume of infected population due to the spread of COVID-
19 has been proposed in the present paper considering several
real life factors such as intra and inter zone mobilization, lock-
down on local and global activities before detection, rate of detec-
tion and the effects of quarantine after detection. Also the zone-
wise increase in infected population due to spreading of pandemic
COVID-19 has been given special emphasis in this paper. Various
remedial steps are taken into consideration in the form of oper-
ating procedures. Further such operating procedures are applied
over the model in standalone or hybridized mode and correspond-
ing responses are reported considering several case studies to indi-
cate that imposing restriction on intra and inter zone mobilization
as well as proper quarantine leads to the flattening of pandemic
curve.
Finally the proposed model is applied over the real data of few
states of India and the predicted responses are reported in the Ap-
pendix section of this paper compared with real data. Also the pro-
posed model has the provision of simulating various operating pro-
cedures as remedial steps in both standalone as well as hybridized
mode to reduce the propagation or spreading strength of con-
cerned pandemic in a particular geographical region which is use-
ful in determining possible measure to be implemented based on
the demographic properties of that region to counter the spreading
of COVID- 19 pandemic.
M. Ghosh, S. Ghosh, S. Ghosh et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 142 (2021) 110377

2. Proposed model Table 1

Operating procedure.

The proposed dynamic model of infected population due to Label Description

spreading of pandemic COVID-19 is represented in Fig. 1. This OP-1 Standard lock-down but mobilization happens
model considers three major factors such as intra zone mobiliza- OP-2 Inter zone mobilization of few zones are stopped but intra
tion; inter zone mobilization and rate of detection. In this model zone mobilization happens
a country/state/territory is divided into N number of zones. At any OP-3 Both intra and inter zone mobilization of few zones are fully
stopped
point of time when it has been realized that such pandemic viral
OP-4 Rate of detection with quarantined increases
infection is spreading out and the time (day) has been taken as the
initial time and total non-detected (implies Non-quarantined) in-
fected alive population on the day has been taken with zone wise
distributions.
The parameters which are marked in the proposed model are
detailed as follows.
Pi (t ) = Number of alive non-detected infected population till
time t (day )in Zone i(Excluding death / detected with quarantined
/ cured).
Pdqi (t ) = Number of detected with quarantined infected popu-
lation till time t (day )in Zone i(Including death after detection /
detected with quarantined / cured after detection).
λi (t ) = Distribution factor of ith Zone at t th day,

N
λj = 1 (1)
j=1

Di (t ) = Number of death of infected population but not detected

till time t (day )in Zone i
δ Di (t ) = γ Pi (t − Td ) (2)
where, γ is the death factor and Td is the average death time delay Fig. 2. Clustering of zones considering geographical location.
in days.
Cdti (t ) = Number of cured infected population belongs to de-
tected with quarantined population till time t (day )in Zone i.
Cndti (t ) = Number of cured infected population belongs to non-
detected population till time t (day )in Zone i.

δCdti (t ) = βdt δ Pdqi (t − Tc ) (3)

 
δCndti (t ) = βndt Pi (t − Tc ) − δ Di (t − Tc ) − δ Pdqi (t − Tc ) (4)
where, βdt and βndt are the factors to become cure and Tc is the av-
erage time delay to become cure in days.
δ Pdqi (t ) = rdi (t ) {Pi (t ) − δ Di (t )} (5)
where, r di (t )represents rate of detection of ith Zone at time t.

N
Pi (t + 1 ) = Pi (t ) + αmw i (t ) Pi (t ) + {αmoki (t ) Pk (t )}
k=1
k=i

−δ Di (t ) − δ Pdqi (t ) − δCndti (t ) (6)

where, Fig. 3. Total infected population (with/without detected including death)
αmw i (t ) =Enhancement factor of Pi (t )due to intra zone mobi- Ptotal (t )and infected but not detected alive population P (t )with operating procedure
OP-1 (Case-1).
lization in Zone iat time t.
αmoki (t ) =Enhancement factor of Pk (t )due to inter zone mo-
bilization from kth to ith Zone at time tand αmoki (t ) = αmoik (t )has
updated by Eq. (7). If mobilization of any zone is stopped then in
been considered.
this model the corresponding factors have to be zero. Also in this
Pi (t + 1 )
λi (t + 1) = (7) model death factor, average death time delay, factors to become
P (t + 1 ) cure and average time delay to become cure have also been con-
Ptotal (t ) =Total infected population (with/without detected includ- sidered. The average death delay time indicates the delay between
ing death) at the end of t th day. infected and death, whereas average time delay to become cure
indicates the factor associated will be applied over the delayed in-

N 
N
t 
N
t
Ptotal (t ) = Pj (t ) + ∫ δ D j (t ) + ∫ δ Pdq j (t ) (8) fected population and the resulted population does not infect fur-
j=1 j=1
0
j=1
0 ther. In this model the rate of detection also has been considered
as a function of time. Further clustering of zones has been con-
In this model the update of alive non-detected infected popula- sidered based on the geographical locations to classify the zones
tion is done by Eq. (6) and further the distribution factors can be where direct inter zone mobilization may happen. Two adjacent

3
M. Ghosh, S. Ghosh, S. Ghosh et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 142 (2021) 110377

Fig. 4. Comparative analysis of infected but not detected alive population P (t )with various remedial steps initiated from day=110.

Table 2 3. Simulation results and discussions

Initialization of population for simulation.

Zone# Pi /Pdq i Zone# Pi /Pdq i Zone# Pi /Pdq i The clustering of zones for the simulation is represented in
1 7/2 41 8/1 72 8/1 Fig. 2 and random initializations of population are reported in
4 10/1 42 20/3 74 8/2 Table 2. The proposed dynamic model of infected population due
8 9/2 43 6/0 90 8/1 to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 has been simulated with Case-
13 6/1 46 5/1 98 10/2 1 parameters and the response of number of alive non-detected
37 6/4 61 9/9 Other 0/0 
infected population Pi (t )has been represented in Fig. 3. Also the
zones
total infected population (with/without detected including death)
t = 20, Di = 0 for all i Ptotal (t )is represented in the Fig. 3. The responses indicate that the
patterns are very much similar to the patterns of infected popula-
tion of various countries.
clusters may have some common zones in the region of intersec- Further, simulations of various case studies as per Table 3 have
tion. Further various operating procedures have been presented in been carried out and reported in Fig. 4. It is found that the rate
Table 1, which can be applied over the proposed model at any of change of infected population are slowing down for Case-2 to
point of time to impose damping over the infected population re- 6 compared to Case-1 and in few cases the non-detected infected
sponse. Considering the operating procedures various case studies population are reducing. Again simulations are carried out by ap-
are simulated and have been reported in the subsequent section. plying OP-4 with incremental rate of detection per day basis start-
It is very much obvious that the community transmission of ing from a certain day and the responses are reported in Fig. 5. It
COVID-19 is mostly due to the alive infected population which is seems that the responses are quite satisfactory compared to Case-
not detected or quarantined till date. Further how such infected 1.
population in each zone changes due the crucial realistic cause of Furthermore, for in-depth studies of the proposed model, the
spreading such as intra and inter zone mobilization factors with zone-wise surface maps have been reported in Fig. 6. When the
rate of detection has been estimated. Also day wise death and model is operated with the parameters as per Case-1, the zone-
cured/recovered are considered in the proposed model with var- wise non-detected infected population are increasing day by day
ious realistic coefficients such as death factor, average death time (Fig. 6(a)). But when OP-3 applied to the model from day 110
delay, factors to become cure, average time delay to become cure for the zones 1 to 20 and 61 to 80 as per Case-3, the zone-wise
etc. This model is reported with Eqs. (1)–(8) and also with block non-detected infected population are reducing for the said zones
diagram form as illustrated in Fig. 1. (Fig. 6(b)).

Table 3
Descriptions of case studies.

Label Description

Case-1 OP-1 with γ =0.1%, βdt = βndt =2%, rdi =1% (for all i), αmw i =8%, Tc = 5, Td = 5,
0.1% ; if Zone i, k ∈
/ same cluster
αmo ki =
0 ; else
For all t
Case-2 Case-1 for t < 110day, Case-1 with OP-2 for t ≥ 110day for zones= 1 to 20 and 61 to 80
Case-3 Case-1 for t < 110day, Case-1 with OP-3 for t ≥ 110day for zones= 1 to 20 and 61 to 80
Case-4 Case-1 for t < 110day, Case-1 with OP-3 & OP-4 for t ≥ 110day for zones= 1 to 20 and 61 to
80, r di =10% (i=1 to 20 and 61 to 80)
Case-5 Case-1 for t < 110day, Case-1 with OP-3 for t ≥ 110day for all zones
Case-6 Case-1 for t < 110day, Case-1 with OP-4 for t ≥ 110day for all zones r di (for all i) increases
by 0.5% per day

4
M. Ghosh, S. Ghosh, S. Ghosh et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 142 (2021) 110377

Fig. 5. Comparative analysis of infected but not detected alive population P (t )with various incremental rate of detection initiated from day=110.

Fig. 6. Zone-wise surface map of infected but not detected alive population Pi (t ), (a) operating procedure OP-1 (Case-1), (b) operating procedure OP-3 (Case-3).

5
M. Ghosh, S. Ghosh, S. Ghosh et al.
The proposed model is simulated with some initial population
as per Table 2. Various operating procedures have been applied
as remedial steps in standalone or hybridized mode and the re-
sponses indicate the effectiveness. Fig. 4 illustrates that if mobiliza-
tion of population is reduces or test for detection increases or both
then the increase in infected population will slowdown or may re-
duce. Further Fig. 5 clearly describes that increase in test for detec-
tion day by day with quarantine will slowdown or reduces the en-
hancement of non-detected infected population. Further zone-wise
surface map (Fig. 6) patterns illustrate that how infected popula-
tion profile changes in each zone if certain operating procedures
have been imposed in few of the zones. It is obvious that reme-
dial course of action with same intensity may not be possible to
be imposed in all zones at same point of time. In view of these if
certain zones are handled with rigid course of action then how the
patterns may improve compared to other zones are studied and re-
ported in Fig. 6.
In view of the reported simulation responses it has to be ad-
mired that hybridization of various operating procedures may im-
prove the situation by slowing down propagation of infected pop-
ulation.
Further to validate the proposed model, various real world data
[37] have been taken into consideration and responses are reported
in the Appendix-A section. In this section three numbers of states
of India such as West Bengal, Tamilnadu and Gujarat, have been
taken into consideration as zones for prediction of spreading of in-
fected population. Considering the data available in [37] upto 31-
July-2020 the day-wise prediction of the entire Aug-2020 has been
simulated by using the proposed model. Fig. A1(a) represents the
factor αmw .rdto find the linear trend line which will be used to get
the intra zone mobilization factor with rate of detection for the
month of Aug-2020. Since in [37], migrated population is taken
zero, the inter zone (in this case state to state) mobilization fac-
tor is assumed to be zero. A crucial factor behind the spreading of
infection is the non-detected infected population roaming through-
out the zone. In order to this it may be assumed that the infected
population to be detected in next few days (here taken 07 days)
are already infected at present but not detected or quarantined.
This consideration is employed to find the trend line as reported in
Fig. A1(a). Further, factor (βdt )to find the cured/recovered popula-
tion from detected infected population has been determined taking
Tc = 5 with moving average basis (Fig. A1(b)).
In Fig. A1(c), the day-wise predicted cumulative infected popu-
lation for the month of Aug-2020 has been reported with bar chart
representation in comparison with real data [37] of West Bengal,
India. Furthermore, in Fig. A1(d), the day-wise predicted cumula-
6
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 142 (2021) 110377
tive cured/recovered population for the month of Aug-2020 has
been reported with bar chart representation in comparison with
real data [37] of West Bengal, India. In similar manner, predicted
cumulative population both infected and recovered, compared with
real data for the zones Tamilnadu, India and Gujarat, India, have
been illustrated in Figs. A2 and A3.
4. Conclusion
In this paper a dynamic model of infected population due to
spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra and inter
zone mobilization factors with rate of detection, have been pro-
posed with various operating procedures. Considering the oper-
ating procedures as followed in this paper, various case studies
have been simulated and reported with adequate responses. The
responses obtained from the simulation of the proposed model are
seen to have considerable similarities with the patterns of infected
population of various countries as reported in the literatures which
indicates the predictability of the proposed model. The coefficients
or factors associated with the proposed model are needed to be
tuned to get the pattern of infected population of any particular
country. Various operating procedures have been applied as reme-
dial steps in standalone or hybridized mode after a certain day and
the responses indicate the effectiveness. Further this study also in-
vestigates that imposing various strict administrative protocols in
certain zones by improving such factors may be achieved improved
responses. Further the proposed model is having various provisions
to fed external inputs to realize the effects of imposing different
remedial steps. In addition to this the proposed model has been
applied over the real world data considering three states of India
and the predicted responses are compared with real data and re-
ported with bar chart representation in the Appendix-A section.
Future scope of research
This proposed model can be tuned to validate the prediction for
others states or country.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Appendix
Fig. A1, Fig. A2, Fig. A3
M. Ghosh, S. Ghosh, S. Ghosh et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 142 (2021) 110377

Fig. A1. Proposed model based predicted data of West Bengal, India. (a) Factor (αmw .rd )with trend line, (b) factor βdt , (c) comparative analysis of cumulative predicted
infected population with real world data available at [37], Tc = 5, Td = 5, (d) comparative analysis of cumulative recovered population (detected) with real world data available
at [37].

7
M. Ghosh, S. Ghosh, S. Ghosh et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 142 (2021) 110377

Fig. A2. Proposed model based predicted data of Tamilnadu, India. (a) Factor (αmw .rd )with trend line, (b) factor βdt , (c) comparative analysis of cumulative predicted infected
population with real world data available at [37], Tc = 5, Td = 5, (d) comparative analysis of cumulative recovered population (detected) with real world data available at [37].

8
M. Ghosh, S. Ghosh, S. Ghosh et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 142 (2021) 110377

Fig. A3. Proposed model based predicted data of Gujarat, India. (a) Factor (αmw .rd )with trend line, (b) factor βdt , (c) comparative analysis of cumulative predicted infected
population with real world data available at [37], Tc = 5, Td = 5, (d) comparative analysis of cumulative recovered population (detected) with real world data available at [37].

9
M. Ghosh, S. Ghosh, S. Ghosh et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 142 (2021) 110377

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