DEFENSE STRATEGY - DISASTER MANAGEMENT PROGRAM

PRADITYA - WIRATAMA - NAGARA BHAKTI

IN DEFENSE STRATEGY
Lecturer: Dr. Adi Subiyanto
Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 SUB BAHASAN MK. STRATEGI PERTAHANAN

1. Pengantar Strategi Pertahanan 9. Sistem Pertahanan Negara

2. Kerangka Strategi Pertahanan 10. Postur Pertahanan Militer

3. Elemen2 Dalam Strategi Pertahanan 11. Postur Pertahanan Non-Militer

4. Politik dan Strategi 12. Pengerahan Kekuatan

5. Doktrin Pertahanan Negara 13. Penggunaan Kekuatan
6. Kecenderungan Lingkungan 14. Irregular Warfare dan Perang
Strategis & Peran Intelijen Hibrida
7. Kepentingan Nasional, Asumsi 15. Penilaian Cost and Risk dalam
Ancaman, dan Peluang Strategi Pertahanan
8. U T S (Sub Bahasan 1 – 7) 16. U A S (Sub Bahasan 9 – 15)

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 1. INTRODUCTION
2. COST IN DEFENSE SECTORs
3. RISK IMPLEMENTATION IN DEFENSE
STRATEGY
4. MILITARY SPENDING
5. SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALs
2

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
INTRODUCTION
Global Environment
(Forces & Trends)

Competing
Values
Economic Conditions
Globalization
Information Revolution

International Law

International
Organizations

Non-State Actors
Threats:
Conventional and
Transnational
WMD
INTRODUCTION

The operational design framework (adapted from Joint Publication 5-0)

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
INTRODUCTION
Colonel Arthur F. Lykke Jr.
provides the formula:
“Strategy equals ends
(objectives toward which one
strives) plus ways (courses of
action) plus means
(instruments by which some
end can be achieved).
Joint Publication 5-0 (2017) begins with a description of Lykke’s model: “Joint
planning is the deliberate process of determining how (the ways) to use military
capabilities (the means) in time and space to achieve objectives (the ends) while
considering the associated risks.” To the degree these three legs might be
misaligned (tilt), the military strategist would likely encounter risk to assigned
missions and tasks.
Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
INTRODUCTION

A PROCESS STRATEGIC PLANNING VARIABLES

A Balancing Act between Ends, Ways and Means
(A 3 legged stool with all legs the same length)
Political Aspirations, Defence Posture and Affordability

Means

Ends
Strategic
Gap or Risk
Ways

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 COST ASSESSMENT
1. Defense Budget Allocation: Cost assessment involves evaluating the financial
resources allocated to defense. This includes funding for personnel, equipment, research,
development, and operations.
2. Acquisition Costs: Assessing the costs associated with acquiring military hardware,
technology, and infrastructure. This involves estimating expenses for procurement,
maintenance, and upgrades.
3. Life Cycle Costs: Considering the entire life cycle of defense systems—from
development to retirement. This includes initial costs, operational expenses, and eventual
decommissioning.
4. Trade-offs: Balancing cost constraints with capability requirements. Prioritizing
investments based on strategic needs and available funds.
5. Efficiency Measures: Identifying cost-saving measures without compromising
effectiveness. This may involve streamlining processes, reducing waste, and optimizing
resource utilization.

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 RISK ASSESSMENT
1. Threats and Vulnerabilities: Identifying potential risks to national security. This
includes understanding adversaries, emerging technologies, and geopolitical dynamics.
2. Operational Risks: Evaluating risks during military operations. Factors include
mission success, casualties, and unforeseen challenges.
3. Technological Risks: Assessing risks related to defense systems. This involves
understanding vulnerabilities, reliability, and potential failures.
4. Budgetary Risks: Considering uncertainties in funding availability. Budget cuts or
unexpected expenses can impact defense capabilities.
5. Strategic Risks: Analyzing risks associated with defense policy decisions. These may
involve alliances, force posture, and long-term planning.
6. Mitigation Strategies: Developing plans to mitigate identified risks. This could
involve diversifying capabilities, redundancy, and contingency planning.

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 RISK ASSESSMENT
The risk function has three variables : asset, vulnerability and
threat.
▪ An asset is any data, device or other component of an
organisation’s systems that is valuable (includes …
property, territory etc).
▪ A vulnerability is a flaw or weakness in an asset’s design,
implementation, or operation and management that could
be exploited by a threat.
▪ A threat is a potential for a threat agent to exploit a
vulnerability.
▪ A risk is the potential for loss when the threat happens.

Military assets are resources that are owned, operated, or controlled by a military organization and
used for military purposes. These assets can include a wide range of equipment, facilities, and
personnel, such as weapons - these can include guns, missiles, bombs, and other armaments that are
used for combat.
 RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
“A risk is a significant, unplanned, and
uncertain event or situation that, should
it occur, has an effect on at least one
project or programme activity, or
business objective... A detrimental risk is
often called a ‘threat’; and a beneficial
risk is called an ‘opportunity’.”

“...any situation where the outcome

cannot be precisely predicted.
Uncertainty includes both the variability
of estimates… and the potential
occurrence of specific threats and
opportunities.”
Risk management process, according to PDE 5-00, 2007
[Brazil’s Ministry of National Defense issued PDE 5-00]

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
IN SUMMARY
Effective defense strategy
requires a delicate balance
between cost considerations
and risk management.

▪ Prioritizing investments,
▪ Anticipating challenges,
and
▪ Adapting to changing
circumstances are essential
for safeguarding national
interest.
Control Efficiency considerations in context
of risk treatment costs

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 MILITARY SPENDING
Distribution of military spending worldwide in 2021, by country

Military Spending:
money spent by a
government to provide
its military with
weapons, equipment,
and soldiers.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/272481/shares-of-selected-countries-in-world-military-spending/

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-top-countries-for-military-spending/

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 Military expenditure (% of GDP) in Indonesia
was reported at 0.69593 % in 2021, according
to the World Bank collection of development
indicators, compiled from officially recognized
sources. Indonesia - Military expenditure (% of
GDP) - actual values, historical data, forecasts
and projections were sourced from the World
Bank on April of 2023.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/indonesia/budget.htm

A military budget (or military

expenditure), also known as a defense
budget, is the amount of financial
resources dedicated by a state to raising
and maintaining an armed forces or other
methods essential for defense purposes.
https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2022/08/18/rapbn-2023-anggaran-kementerian-pertahanan-dipangkas-rp15-triliun

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
https://www.idntimes.com/business/economy/vadhia-lidyana-1/10-pos-anggaran-belanja-tertinggi-nomor-1-kementeriannya-prabowo

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2021/10/04/realiasasi-anggaran-pertahanan-rp-13687-triliun-pada-2020

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 APBN 2020 PORSI JUMBO KEMHAN 137,3 T

44 T PROGRAM PENGGUNAAN
KEKUATAN

PEMBINAAN SUMBER
11.4 T PROGRAM PROFESIONALISME &
KESEJAHTERAAN PRAJURIT
1.6 T DAYA PERTAHANAN

PROGRAM KEBIJAKAN & PROGRAN RISET, INDUSTRI

35.4 T REGULASI PERTAHANAN 345.8 M & PENDIDIKAN TINGGI
PERTAHANAN

PROGRAM MODERNISASI
42.5 T ALUTSISTA, NON ALUTSISTA & 76.2 T PROGRAM DUKUNGAN
MANAJEMEN
SARPRAS PERTAHANAN

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALs

Security Challenges, Vol. 10, No. 3 (2014), pp. 23-49.

Sejak 9/11, banyak negara barat telah mengubah keputusan keamanan nasional mereka dalam kaitannya dengan
manajemen risiko strategis. Semua pihak telah melakukan penilaian risiko, namun penerjemahan valid ke dalam
prioritas kemampuan sebagian besar telah dihilangkan dengan mentransfer prioritas langsung dari besaran risiko.
Prioritas perlakuan harus ditentukan berdasarkan manfaat pengurangan risiko dalam kaitannya dengan biaya,
namun metode untuk menilai dampak pengurangan risiko masih sulit dipahami. Artikel ini menunjukkan, secara
pragmatis, bagaimana pilihan perlakuan dihasilkan, dan bagaimana kemampuan yang berkontribusi paling besar
terhadap pengurangan risiko dapat diidentifikasi. Hal-hal tersebut harus menjadi sasaran prioritas bagi investasi
sumber daya yang terbatas.
Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
US: the nations that have the greatest influence, resources, and US MILITARY BASES
Afloat: ~16.000 troops drawn
mostly from Japan
Japan: ~40.000 troops

South Korea: ~28.500 troops

Guams: ~4.500 troops propose

military strength in the world.

addition of ~ 4.500 troops,

drawn from Japan
Malacca Straits

Singapore: Plan to station

four Littoral Cobat Ships

Darwin: Proposed ~2,500

troops, drawn globally

Perth: U.S and Australia discussing a plan

to allow the U.S Navy greater access to the Philippines: ~500 rotational troops,
Australian naval base here expanded cooperation and rotational
arrangements under discussion
FIVE POWER DEFENCE ARRANGEMENTs [FPDA]

2 3

The Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) are a series of

4
bilateral defence relationships established by a series of multi-
lateral agreements between Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand,
Singapore, and the United Kingdom, all of which are 5
Commonwealth members that once belonged to the British Empire.
 AUSTRALIA – UNITED KINGDOM – UNITED STATE [AUKUS]

AUKUS adalah sebuah pakta keamanan trilateral antara

Australia, Britania Raya (UK), dan Amerika Serikat (AS) yang
didirikan pada 15 September 2021. Di bawah pakta tersebut,
AS dan UK akan membantu Australia untuk mengembangkan
dan mengerahkan kapal-kapal selam bertenaga nuklir, selain
mengerahkan militer barat di kawasan Pasifik.
 QUADRILATERAL SECURITY DIALOGUE [QUAD]

Maritime Cooperation
among them began after
the Indian Ocean
tsunami of 2004. But
today the countries—all
democracies and vibrant
economies—work on a far
broader agenda, which
includes tackling security,
economic, and health
issues.
The Quadrilateral Security
Dialogue (QSD), commonly known
as the QUAD, is a strategic security
dialogue between Australia, India,
Japan and the United States that is
maintained by talks between
member countries.
 MILITARY CAPABILITIES AND THE STRATEGIC
PLANNING CONUNDRUM
Conundrum (Latin) = a confusing and difficult problem or question

Comparison between a small and a great power in terms of what leads the strategy process

We can easily use a formula to demonstrate the same as, but also including the risk. So:

▪ In a small power, the risk is normally connected with

the ends assumed (more than desired for the means
available).
▪ In a great power, the risk is linked to the definition of
the ways and means (miscalculated for the ends set by the
policy)
Is the way of achieving a goal (ends) more
important than the goal itself? Y/N

Alice : “Would you tell me, please, which way I

ought to walk from here?”
Cheshire Cat: “That depends a good deal on where
you want to get to.”
Alice: “I don’t care much where.”
Cheshire Cat: “Then it doesn’t matter which way
you walk.”
(Carroll 1998, p. 89)

Balancing costs, capability, and risk is essential in defense strategy.

Whether it’s allocating resources effectively or managing large-scale
projects, thoughtful decisions impact national security and stability.

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 THE GUNS AND BUTTER THEORY
– DEFENSE SPENDING VS. SOCIAL PROGRAMS

"Guns or Butter" describes

the government allocation to
defense spending versus
social programs. A country's
budget includes military
programs for national
security, or guns, and social
programs such as Social
Security or family assistance,
the butter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ht0o80oYLIs

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 SAVING PRIVATE RYAN
No matter the situation - war or peace, authentic
leadership and a clear sense of purpose are the
key ingredients making the difference. Capt. John
Miller (Tom Hanks) was faced with the almost
impossible mission to lead a squad of soldiers to
find and bring Pvt. Ryan back home.

Private Jackson : Well, what I mean by

that, sir, is... if you was to put me and
this here sniper rifle anywhere up to
and including one mile of Adolf Hitler
with a clear line of sight, sir... pack your
bags, fellas, war's over. Amen.
Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 THE CHALLENGE OF IDEAL AND REALITY
DEALING WITH DEFENSE STRATEGY

Ideal National Defense Strategy (Ways, Means, Ends) National

Goals and
Interests

Ad Hoc Defense Strategy

Reality
Uncertain
Destiny

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 REFERENSI
▪ Yarger, Harry R, Carlisle Barrack. 2006., “Strategic Theory for the 21st Century:
The Little Book on Big Strategy”. Letort Paper No.12 Strategic Studies Institue, US
Army War College.
▪ Grattan, Robert F. 2011. Strategic Review: The Process of Strategy Formulation in
Complex Organisations. Gower Publishing Limited,
▪ Strategic Leadership and Decision Making, National Defense University, USA.
▪ Undang-Undang RI Nomor 3 Tahun 2002 tentang Pertahanan Negara.
▪ Undang-Undang RI Nomor 34 Tahun 2004 tentang Tentara Nasional Indonesia.
▪ Peraturan Presiden Nomor 8 Tahun 2021 tentang Kebijakan Umum Pertahanan
Negara.
▪ Kemhan RI. 2015. Buku Putih Pertahanan Negara. Jakarta: Kemhan.
▪ Yusgiantoro, Purnomo. 2014. Ekonomi Pertahanan, Teori dan Praktik. Jakarta:
Gramedia.

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024
 adisbyt@gmail.com

www.idu.ac.id

Cost and Risk Assessment in Defense Strategy - Dr. Adi Subiyanto – Jakarta: April 17, 2024