1821123, 724. AM Hurricane Hilary: Why are west coast huricanes so unprecedented? Sections [i ENGLISH | siSyb | TET | BeKOBo | Aree | Fat | ATT] BUSINESS | faa Newsletters G) sivmnee | SThe IndianEXPRESS JOURNALISM OF COURAGE Home Get Access yy India Cities Videos Audio Explained Education Politics Opinion Entertainment | Mini Latest upsc Express Govt Health Crosswords News Special etal Exams Specials News / Explained / Explained Climate / What makes Hurricane Hilary ‘unprecedented’ What makes Hurricane Hilary ‘unprecedented’ As Mexico and Southern California brace for the never-seen-before storm, a look at what makes hurricanes over the US west coast so rare, and how global warming is changing things. ‘TRENDING Written by Arjun Sengupt New Delhi | Updated: August 20, 2023 11:09 IST BD Fotiow us eS fy @NewsGuard tps iindianexpress.convartte/explainedexplaineclimata/hurrcane-hlary-unprecedartod-8800032! 171821123, 724. AM Hurricane Hilary off the coast of Mexico on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. Since the time of the photo, the storm has moved closer to the coast and is expected to make landfall early morning on Sunday (Mexico time). (Photo: NOAA via The New York Times) Listen to this article ooo tx 1.8 18x The United States sees its fair share of hurricanes. As per the country’s National Weather Service (NWS), in an average 3-year period, roughly five hurricanes strike the US coastline — but never in the west coast. ‘This is why Hurricane Hilary, which is currently racing towards Southern California and Mexico, is s0 out of the ordinary. Though California, in the past, has felt the effects of hurricanes, they typically remain well offshore and subside to become tropical storms by the time they hit they make landfall. -@NWS is carefully tracking Hurricane #Hilary and the dangerous weather it's expected to bring to Mexico and the southwestern U.S. Take this storm seriously! Check https://t.co/RzyilU9fBO and tps iindianexpress.convartte/explainedexplaineclimata/hurrcane-hlary-unprecedartod-8800032! 2n71821123, 724. AM Hurricane Hilary: Why are west coast huricanes so unprecedented? https://t.co/mhjKxROcWQ for the latest. -twitter.com/MIOrVG7A9c — NWS Director (@NWSDirector) August 18, 2023 And even these tropical storms are rare. Last year’s Hurricane Kay was the first tropical storm to impact California in a quarter of a century, and it lost most of its force by the time it hit the coast. Prior to that, Hurricane Nora moved over Southern California as a tropical storm in 1997. oy = oe a we @ \ , % ne \ sun bee Hurricane Hilary Current information: x Forecast positions: Saturday August 19, 2023 Center location 21.5N1134W @Tropical Cyclone Post Potential TC /B AMMIT intermediate Advisory 12A Maximum sustained wind 190 mph Sustained winds: D.< 39 mph NWS National Humicane Conter Movement NNW at 13 mph $39.73 mph H 74-110 mph M> 110 mph] Potential track area: Watches: Warnings: Current wind field estimate noay 1-3 EER day 4-5 Huicane HN Trop Sim IlHuricare I Trop Sim Hurricane ll Trop Stm ‘The image shows the estimated path of the storm and an approximate timeline. (Source: National Hurricane Center/ NOAA) tps iindianexpress.convartte/explainedexplaineclimata/hurrcane-hlary-unprecedartod-8800032! an728,724. aM Hurricane Hi: Why ae west coast huricanes so unprecedented? “Gt is rare — indeed nearly unprecedented in the modern record —to have a tropical system like this move through Southern California,” Greg Postel, a hurricane and storm specialist at the Weather Channel, told CBS News. Arace to be ready Unlike states like Florida, Louisiana and Texas on the Gulf of Mexico, which have 1 ; : | As per latest estimates, the hurricane will make landfall in the Baja peninsula in Mexico, roughly 330 km south of the port of Ensenada. It will move north from there, bringing record rainfall and extremely strong winds. Tijuana, a sprawling border metropolis of 1.9 million people in Mexico, is at risk of landslides and flooding, because of its hilly terrain, extremely high density of population and poor quality of housing and infrastructure, Mexico has mobilised over 18,000 troops in anticipation of the storm. Even if Hurricane Hilary loses some of its force by the time it touches Southern California, its impact may be deadly. tps iindianexpress.convartte/explainedexplaineclimata/hurrcane-hlary-unprecedartod-8800032! ann1821123, 724. AM Hurricane Hilary: Why are west coast huricanes so unprecedented? g Tropical-Storm-Force Wind Speed Probabilities For the 120 hour's (5.00 days) from 12 AM MOT SAT AUG 19 to 12 AM MOT THU AUG 23 ® 1 Probability of ropical-storm-force winds (T-minute average >= 38 mph) from all wopical cyciones: ‘© Indieates Hurricane Hilary center location at 12 AM MDT SAT AUG 19, 2023 (Forecast/Advisory #12) Sm The image shows the probable windspeeds the hurricane is likely to hit. (National Hurricane Center/NOAA) “Two to three inches of rainfall in Southern California is unheard of” for this time of year, Kristen Corbosiero, a University of Albany atmospheric scientist who specialises in Pacific hurricanes, told AP. “That’s a whole summer and fall amount of rain coming in probably six to 12 hours.” Communications are anticipated to be cut and power supply lost. People have been urged by authorities to stock up essentials, keep their generators fuelled and fill up sandbags to cover windows. Why this is so rare nd tps indianexpress.convartte/explainedexplaine.climata/hurrcane-ilary-unprecedertod-8800032! snr1821123, 724. AM Hurricane Hilary: Why are west coast huricanes so unprecedented? Below this threshold temperature, hurricanes will not form or will weaken rapidly once they move over water below this threshold. Major ocean currents, Blue arrows show cold currents whereas red arrows show warm currents, (Wikimedia Commons) While high temperatures are common during hurricane season along the US east coast, the west coast is much colder. In the Atlantic, warm, equatorial waters are transported north to higher latitudes along the US coast via the Gulf Stream but along the west coast, in the Pacific, cold current steers colder water from higher latitudes toward equatorial regions. This makes hurricanes highly unlikely. Also Read | Bonn climate meet takeaways: Old conflicts, some forward movement Another factor is the vertical wind shear — a term used to describe the change in wind speed as one travels up from the Earth’s surface — especially in the upper level of the atmosphere. It is an important ingredient in formation of hurricanes as they can extend up to 16 km into the atmosphere. Hurricanes can’t emerge if the upper level winds are strong as they “destroy the storms structure by displacing the warm temperatures above the eye and limiting the vertical accent of air parcels,” according to the NWS. Usually, wind shear in the eastern Pacific is much stronger than the Gulf of Mexico, causing less frequent hurricanes along the western coast. tps iindianexpress.convartte/explainedexplaineclimata/hurrcane-hlary-unprecedartod-8800032! en71821123, 724. AM Hurricane Hilary: Why are west coast hurricanes so unprecedented? The trade winds blow from east to west near the equator. (Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech) “almost all of them just go out to sea. That’s why we never hear about them,” Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told AP. So, is climate change the culprit? Simply put, the answer is yes. Scientists expected climate change to not only spike e. Arecent study, Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: Global Landfall Frequency Projections Derived from Knutson et al’, published in the journal American Meteorological Society, suggested that major hurricane landfalls in the eastern Pacific could become up to 30 per cent more frequent in case global temperatures soar by at least 2 degrees Celsius. Also Read | Climate change is altering the colour of the oceans: What a new study says tps iindianexpress.convartte/explainedexplaineclimata/hurrcane-hlary-unprecedartod-8800032! m71821123, 724. AM Hurricane Hilary: Why are west coast huricanes so unprecedented? But why does climate change lead to more frequent and intense hurricanes? As mentioned before, it has to do with the surface temperatures of the oceans. The ce t arine heat wi re _Tainfall and more flooding when storms reach the land. ALSO READ How geopolitics is. © Whyanewsnake How California's Heavy rains in complicating the specieshasbeen Redwoods are Himachal Pradesh: move to clean named after being revived When is high energy Harrison Ford rainfall termed as a ‘cloud... to an abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is known to increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean. First published on: 19-08-2023 at 18:46 IST TAGS: Explained Climate Express Explained tps indianexpress.convartte/explainedexplaine.climata/hurrcane-ilary-unprecedertod-8800032! an71821123, 724. AM Hurricane Hilary: Why are west coast hurricanes so unprecedented? 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