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Last Risk Premium Bernstein
Last Risk Premium Bernstein
Lewis A. Sanders
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
MAY 2007
About the Author
Lewis A. Sanders
Chairman of the Board of Directors and
Chief Executive Officer
Most investment assets are being priced for a more stable investment environment.
Equities stand as the major exception.
Is the financial world losing its grip again? Consider Corporate buyers, private-equity investors and fixed-
what’s under way in the capital markets. income lenders appear to be operating as if the world
has changed. They are making a wager that risk is much
In 2006, the aggregate value of mergers and acquisitions lower, that more leverage can be safely employed, and
completed reached $3.3 trillion, triple the level just three that stocks, even at the higher prices achieved over the
years ago. An incredible $2.3 trillion of that total was past few years, are still extremely attractive.
financed with cash. In the first quarter of 2007, the value
of M&A deals announced rose another 50% to more than Traditional equity investors don’t appear to see things
$5 trillion at an annual rate. the same way. Stocks are priced as if little has changed.
The equity risk premium is at its long-term average—
Taking companies private is now all the rage. By some price-to-earnings ratios are near the mean of the last 50
accounts, equity capital raised but not yet invested by years. In the US, households are net sellers of stock at
private equity firms now exceeds $300 billion, implying a rate larger than at any time in history. Some pension
potential buying power with leverage of well more than funds, in an attempt to “de-risk” their assets relative to
$1 trillion. And the money keeps pouring in. their liabilities, are cutting equity allocations and raising
exposure to fixed income.
The price of commercial real estate has soared. In just the
last few years, AAA commercial property is up more than So who’s right? What explains this dichotomy? Will it all
50% in many markets and 100% in prized areas such as come to a bad end?
New York City. Cash-on-cash yields1 of as low as 3% to
4% are no longer unusual for exceptional properties— The weight of evidence would appear to be on the side
yields that would have been unthinkable for most of of the optimists. There is much evidence to suggest
modern business history. that the world has actually become a less risky place in
economic terms and for reasons that should prove last-
Lubricating these phenomena is a depth of liquidity in ing. This would mean that the higher level of risk that
the fixed-income capital markets that has no histori- continues to be priced into equities provides an exploit-
cal precedent, and at credit spreads that have collapsed, able opportunity.
especially for speculative grades—so much so that the
term high-yield bond is, in some sense, losing its mean-
ing. And it’s more than just credit spreads that are low,
so is the real long-term rate, the term premium and the
inf lation premium.
1 Cash income (rents less operating expenses less debt payments) divided by market value
May 2007 1
Signs of Lower Risk Are Plentiful What accounts for the decline? Most of it came from just
To examine why the world has become less risky and a few areas (Display 2):
is likely to stay that way (at least for a while), let’s focus
first on the US. We broke up the last 60 years into three • Federal spending on defense,
segments—the post-World War II boom, the era of high • Swings in inventories,
inf lation that followed and, finally, the current era of
• Consumer investment in housing and
stability. We then looked at the change in a number of
other durable goods, and
metrics over these periods, specifically real growth, inf la-
tion and corporate profits. In every case, the decline in • Trade with the rest of the world.
volatility has been striking (Display 1), typically on the
order of 50% or more. So for example, real GDP growth The reduction in volatility from these sources collectively
averaged 3.4% p.a. over the 1946–2006 period. It used to accounts for 80% of the total decline. And it is a decline
have a volatility of ±3% around the average, but that has that in each case looks durable.
declined to ±1.2% over the last 20 years. Take defense spending. Certainly, it’s still volatile. But
it just doesn’t matter much anymore. During the 1950s,
Display 1 defense spending averaged nearly 16% of GDP (Display 3),
Economic Volatility Has Fallen Sharply a figure that still seems startling for a period that was,
after all, mostly a period of peace. Defense spending was
Volatility still 12% of GDP during the 1960s. As such, when con-
GDP Growth Inflation Corporate Profit Growth f licts like the Korean and Vietnam Wars came along, they
22.6% imparted huge volatility to economic output.
16.7%
12.8% Display 3
Defense Spending Has Lost Its Significance in Relation to GDP
Display 2 5
Five Sectors Have Driven Volatility Decline Average 4%
0
20
47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 02 06
May 2007 3
Display 5 This has many positive feedbacks, most notably less need
The Volatility of Inflation Has Declined Meaningfully… for very wide swings in monetary policy, and thus less
attendant economic volatility. To be sure, effective coun-
3.2% tercyclical monetary policy will still be a crucial con-
tributor to sustained stability. Indeed, Greenspan’s Federal
2.0% Reserve was seen as so good at it that some came to call
it “the Greenspan put.” But, the drop in volatility during
0.7%
the last 20-plus years has a lot more behind it than just
0.6%
insightful leadership at the US Fed.
*September 1996–1Q:2007
Moreover, the advent of asset-backed securities, collat-
Source: FactSet, MSCI and AllianceBernstein eralized debt obligations (CDOs) and collateralized loan
obligations (CLOs), as well as credit derivatives, have, at
Consider the picture in the US: least so far, reinforced this favorable environment by pro-
viding investors with the ability to diversify risk to a far
• Debt to EBITDA ratios have been falling and are now at greater degree and with far greater liquidity than the cash
the lowest levels in 30 years. markets ever provided. This has had the effect of reduc-
ing market risk premiums still further, which is a logical
• Interest coverage ratios have been soaring and are now development as these vehicles convert idiosyncratic risk to
more than double the average of the 1980s. systematic risk at a time when the latter appears to be at
an historical low.
• The frequency of bond defaults is very low (Display 8).
May 2007 5
Display 9 Display 10
Highly Leveraged Financing Has Shifted Real-Estate Cap Rates Are at a Modern-Day Low…
from Banks to Institutions
Cash Yields Before Cap Ex
Collateralized Loan Obligations New Issues by Lender 15%
Outstanding
300
12
25% Banks
Average
200 9
US$ Billion
% of Total
87%
100 75% Institutions 6
66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06
0 13%
97 99 01 03 05 07 97 07* …and the Real-Estate Equity Risk Premium
Has Become Compressed
*1Q:2007 annualized
Source: Standard & Poor’s
Commercial Mortgage Real-Estate Expected Return
Spreads over Treasuries Premium over 10-Year Treasuries
By way of example, look at what’s going on in leveraged
200 380
loans (Display 9). Issuance of CLOs has exploded and now 172 167
accounts for two-thirds of the leveraged-loan market. 290
(Basis Points)
(Basis Points)
This has vastly expanded the pool of investors willing to 110
take on this kind of exposure. Indeed, institutions now
finance an estimated 75% of new issuance—a profound
shift from the old days when the bulk of such loans would
have stayed on the books of only a handful of banks.
1970s 1980s 1990s 4Q: 1965–2006 4Q:
These same forces have also reshaped the market for com- 2006 Average 2006
mercial real estate. Capitalization, or cap, rates—the cash As of December 31, 2006
f low generated by an asset relative to its purchase price— Source: American Council of Life Insurers, Barron’s, Global Financial Data,
have been driven down (Display 10, top) by the combina- Lehman Brothers, Real Capital Analytics and AllianceBernstein
May 2007 7
But, of all the potential threats, the one most likely to Display 15
upset the apple cart is leverage. As we lose volatility in the Corporation Credit Metrics Remain Strong
real economy and credit costs are re-priced accordingly,
we set up incentives for people and companies to rebuild Net Debt/EBITDA Interest Coverage
risk through increasing leverage. 3.5x 8x
7
And, they are doing just that. Among households, it is 3.0
6
manifest in expanding mortgage debt. While the sub- Average
2.5 5
prime mortgage cycle in the US got distorted in the last
4
year or two with inappropriate lending practices, the fact 2.0
is that greater economic and employment stability does 3
enlarge the pool of qualified borrowers and does permit 1.5 2
debt service burdens to be “safely” increased. Household 70 76 82 88 94 00 06 70 76 82 88 94 00 06
financial obligations are at a new high in relation to Through December 31, 2006
income (Display 14). But once again, aside from the sub- Source: BEA and Federal Reserve Board
prime distortion, there is little evidence as yet of credit
deterioration. So the bottom line is this: Publicly traded equities repre-
sent the last risk premium standing. As long as the current
Display 14
era of stability persists, it is a tempting target to exploit.
Households Have Increased Leverage Materially
Not only is it inducing public-to-private recapitaliza-
tions, it is driving managements of public companies to
Debt Monthly Payment Obligations
use the free cash f low they generate to buy back shares.
as % of DPI* as % of DPI†
Most recently, some prominent companies have even
150% 20%
announced plans to increase their debt to do so. Indeed,
19
last year the combination of these factors led to retirement
120
18 (net of new issuance) of nearly 4% of the equity-market
17 capitalizations of both the US and the UK. In sum, the
90
16 forces at work are producing a strong tailwind to public-
equity valuation.
60 15
86 90 94 98 02 06 86 90 94 98 02 06 While the forces are in place to drive loftier stock market
Through December 31, 2006 returns, the scenario is not without risks. An altogether
*Household credit-market debt as a percent of household disposable income different picture could emerge if free trade is restricted, if
†The Federal Reserve Board’s Obligations Ratio, which refl ects the aggregate
amount of mortgage payments, installment-loan payments, rental payments, insur- the current proliferation of financial derivative products
ance payments and real-estate taxes as a percent of disposable personal income creates unanticipated weaknesses, if geopolitical issues
Source: Federal Reserve Board alter the pattern of economic stability, or if increased
corporate leverage reaches extremes. The current mar-
In the corporate sector, the leveraging process is just ket environment, with the potential for both continued
getting started (Display 15). Indeed, 2006 was the first positive equity returns and the resurgence of a variety of
year in five in which debt in relationship to cash f low risks, supports a full exposure to stocks—in line with the
rose. However, it still remains meaningfully below prior investor’s long-term asset allocation strategy—together
peaks—and far below what I’ll dub the “private-equity with an appropriate dose of stabilizing bonds. ■
capital structure” archetype.
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