Journal Pre-proof

Predictive Modelling of Compressive Strength of

Fly Ash and Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag
Based Geopolymer Concrete Using Machine
Learning Techniques

Yejia Wang, Ammar Iqtidar, Muhammad Nasir

Amin, Sohaib Nazar, Ahmed M Hassan, Mujahid
Ali

PII: S2214-5095(24)00281-X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cscm.2024.e03130
Reference: CSCM3130

To appear in: Case Studies in Construction Materials

Received date: 18 May 2023
Revised date: 29 February 2024
Accepted date: 3 April 2024
Please cite this article as: Yejia Wang, Ammar Iqtidar, Muhammad Nasir Amin,
Sohaib Nazar, Ahmed M Hassan and Mujahid Ali, Predictive Modelling of
Compressive Strength of Fly Ash and Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag
Based Geopolymer Concrete Using Machine Learning Techniques, Case Studies
in Construction Materials, (2024)
doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cscm.2024.e03130
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Predictive Modelling of Compressive Strength of Fly Ash and Ground Granulated Blast Furnace
Slag Based Geopolymer Concrete Using Machine Learning Techniques
Yejia Wang1, Ammar Iqtidar2, Muhammad Nasir Amin3, Sohaib Nazar2,4, Ahmed M Hassan
5
, Mujahid Ali 6

1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, South

Kensington, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom (yejiawang1211@sina.com)
2. Department of Civil Engineering, Comsats University Islamabad-Abbottabad Campus,
Pakistan. ammariqtidar@gmail.com
3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, King Faisal

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University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia
4. Shanghai Key Laboratory for Digital Maintenance of Buildings and Infrastructure, School

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of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University,
Shanghai, 200240, China.
5. Faculty of Engineering, Future
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University in Egypt, 11835 Egypt;
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ahmed.hassan.res@fue.edu.eg
6. Department of Transport Systems, Traffic Engineering and Logistics, Faculty of Transport
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and Aviation Engineering, Silesian University of Technology, Krasińskiego Street, 40-019

Katowice, Poland; mali@polsl.pl
a

Corresponding author: sohaib_86@sjtu.edu.cn

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Abstract:
Ordinary Portland cement (OPC) is proving to be hazardous to the environment. To replace the
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OPC, geopolymers (GPs) are introduced. However, to fully replace the OPC by GPs extensive
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laboratory tests are required to assess the long-term and short-term properties of GPs in
different scenarios. Given the shortage of time for performing such extensive testing, artificial
intelligence (AI) is used to analyze the properties of GPs. In this study, different AI techniques
such as artificial neuro network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and
gene expression programming (GEP) are used to obtain the predictive models for estimating
the compressive strength of fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag-based GP
concrete. Different statistical parameters are used to evaluate the performance of predictive
models. Similarly, sensitivity and parametric analysis are also conducted on the input
parameters. Additionally, multiple linear regression was also performed on the whole database.
After comparing all the results, it was concluded that GEP is the best AI technique to predict
the compressive strength of GP-based concrete.
Keywords: Machine learning, Artificial Intelligence, Geopolymers, Fly Ash, Ground Granulated Blast
Furnace Slag

1. Introduction
The use of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) and ordinary Portland cement concrete (OPCC) is
on the rise [1]. It is a well-established fact that the utilization of OPC and OPCC result in the
emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) [2]. Manufacturing and use of OPC accounts for a
greenhouse gas emission of 8 percent of the total greenhouse gas emissions [3]. While on the
other hand the use of raw materials to produce OPC results in the depletion of source materials
and ecological imbalance [4]–[6]. It is therefore a necessity to search for a new binder that

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could replicate the properties of OPC and bring less harm to the environment. One such binder
is the geopolymer (GP) [7]. The term “geopolymer” was first introduced in 1978 by Joseph

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Davidovits [8]. The geopolymerization process occurs through the dissolution of an
aluminosilicate source in the presence of an alkali solution. It leads to the formation of
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aluminate and silicate monomers. These monomers are converted into oligomers and
eventually into geopolymers. The solution activation ratio of GPs is represented by the modulus
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SiO2 / Na2O. It is the parameter of interest for determining different properties of GPs such as
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rheological and stoichiometric properties [9], [10]. Alkali concentration plays a pivotal role in
the strength development of GPs [11]. By increasing the alkali concentration, Na2O3/Al2O3,
the strength and geopolymerization is affected positively. In addition, GPs can be used as fire-
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resistant materials in buildings and structures. Sodium hydroxide provides the necessary
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alkaline environment for the dissolution and polymerization of the FA and GGBFS particles.
Temperature is one of the most influential factors that affect the performance of GP concrete,
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as it controls the rate and extent of the geopolymerization reaction, and thus the strength, setting
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time, and durability of the GP concrete [12]. Temperature affects the solubility, viscosity, and
pH of the alkaline solution, and also the dissolution and polymerization of the FA and GGBFS
particles [13]. For testing the residual strength after exposing different GPs to high
temperatures, research was conducted [14]. It was concluded that the compressive strength of
the GPs kept increasing to 600 ºC. After this temperature, the compressive strength started to
reduce. However, the GPs that were made from silica fumes showed the highest strength in all
cases. Similar GPs can be synthesized by using construction waste materials [15]–[17]. In
addition to these materials, GPs can also be made from natural resources such as bamboo fibers
and jute fibers [18]. Several studies have suggested that GPs exhibit resistance against acid
attacks as well [19], [20]. So, GPs are not only environmentally friendly, but they can also act
as fire-resistant and acid-resistant materials in different structures.
GP is known not only to minimize the carbon footprint of the construction industry but also for
efficiently utilizing the waste and by-products of the other industries [21]–[25]. The GPs are
produced as a result of a reaction between a base material that is rich in silica and alumina and
an alkaline medium [26]–[28]. These base materials could be metakaolin (MK), rice husk ash
(RHA), limestone fines [29], [30], fly ash (FA) [31]–[33], bagasse ash (BA), wheat straw ash
[34], coir fiber [35], silica fumes [36], natural pozzolana [37] and ground granulated blast
furnace slag (GGBFS) etc. The base materials could be used alone or in combinations such as

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MK with RHA [38] or FA with GGBFS [39]. The product obtained by the reaction of base
materials and alkaline medium is GP concrete and it holds together the constituents of concrete.

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FA is the byproduct of coal-fired power stations [40] and it is produced in abundance all over
the world. It could be used in the process of making a GP and can help in reducing CO2
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emissions [41]. GGBFS is also present in abundance around the globe. It is a byproduct of the
steel and metallurgy industry. The silica and alumina are present in abundance in GGBFS so it
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could also be used to synthesize the GP [42]. The GGBFS-based GP also helps in reducing the
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carbon footprint of the construction industry [43]. However, GGBFS and FA can also be used
in combination for the formation of GP [44]. FA is rich in silica and alumina, which can form
a more stable and denser geopolymer network. However, fly ash also has a high content of
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unreactive impurities, such as iron oxide and calcium oxide, which can reduce the strength and
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durability of geopolymer [45]. GGBFS, on the other hand, is rich in calcium and has a lower
content of silica and alumina. GGBFS can enhance the compressive strength and durability of
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geopolymer by forming calcium silicate hydrate (CSH) and calcium aluminate hydrate (CAH)
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phases. However, GGBFS also has a higher reactivity and solubility than FA, which can reduce
the workability and increase the setting time of geopolymer [46]. Hence by blending FA and
GGBFS, the geopolymer can achieve a balance between strength, durability, workability, and
setting time. Extensive testing and rigorous lab work is required to predict the properties and
behavior of GPs under different conditions. The lab work and testing require a long span of
time and given the number of variables involved, it becomes more difficult to perform each
test accurately and precisely. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) proves to be beneficial in
such circumstances [47]–[51]. Various AI techniques such as artificial neural networks and
genetic expression programming could be used to accurately predict the behavior of GP
concrete (GPC) [52]–[55]. These techniques include artificial neuro networks (ANN) whose
subtypes consist of back-propagation neuro networks (BPNN), general regression neural
networks (GRNN), bayesian neural networks (BNN), hybrid ANNs such as artificial fuzzy
neuro interference systems (ANFIS), [56] genetic expression programming (GEP), [57] genetic
algorithm (GA), support vector machines (SVM) and alternate decision trees [58]–[60]. GEP
can also handle nonlinear, noisy, and incomplete data, and can adapt to changing environments
[61]. Similarly, ANN is able to learn from data without requiring explicit rules or equations
and can handle complex and nonlinear problems. ANN can also generalize well to unseen data
and can deal with uncertainty and noise [62]. While ANFIS can incorporate both numerical
and linguistic information and can handle imprecise and vague data. ANFIS can also learn from
data and adjust the parameters of the fuzzy rules and membership functions and can provide a

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transparent and interpretable solution [63].
This study aims to overcome the challenges in forecasting the compressive strength of

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geopolymer concrete composed of ground granulated blast furnace slag and fly ash. Current
AI research in this field has struggled to predict CS properly because of weak connections
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between input variables and outcomes, insufficient data, and a lack of comparative assessment.
Three AI computing techniques ANN, ANFIS and GEP are used to predict the CS and behavior
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of the governing input parameters on the GPC under consideration. Eight input parameters are
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used to develop models such as amount of GGBFS (AGGBFS), amount of FA (AFA), quantity
of fine aggregates (QFA), quantity of coarse aggregates (QCA), amount of sodium hydroxide
(ANOH), quantity of sodium silicate (QSS), quantity of superplasticizer (QSP) and curing
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temperature for GP (T). GGBFS and FA are the constituents of the binder used in GP concrete.
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The role of coarse aggregates and fine aggregates is similar to that in conventional concrete.
They impart density, strength, and resistance to the GP concrete. [64] Whereas sodium
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hydroxide is one of the common alkaline activators used for geopolymer concrete, and it has a
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significant effect on the reactivity and microstructure of the GP binder. A comprehensive

database of these parameters is obtained from peer-reviewed literature. The output parameter
is the CS of GGBFS and FA-based GPC obtained through tweaking these eight input
parameters. The main objectives of this research are (i) developing the predictive models based
on ANN, ANFIS, and GEP (ii) Comparing the CS obtained through ANN and ANFIS with that
obtained through GEP (iii) Analyzing the suitability of derived models through statistical tools
such as root squared error (RSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE),
regression coefficient (R2) and correlation coefficient (R). In addition, sensitivity analysis is
performed to identify the negative or positive impacts of the input parameters on the output.

2. AI computing techniques (An overview)

ANNs are computational problem-solving models that are inspired by the biological model of
the human brain and simulate the human neurons and nervous systems. ANNs predict the direct
relationship between the input and put parameters. Despite exhibiting accurate results, ANNs
do not yield empirical formulation [65]. ANNs perform mathematical calculations with the aid
of certain processing elements in the form of layers, that are, an input layer (comprising of
independent variables or inputs), a hidden layer (consisting of several hidden neurons or hidden
variables), and an output layer (consisting of target values). In the first layer, input variables
are selected to form an equation to obtain the respective outcome. In the hidden layer, each
input from the first layer is multiplied by a suitable biased weight. At every node, a threshold

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value is added to the summation of the weighted inputs. After this, the combined input passes
through the transfer function that comprises of non-linear transfer function. The commonly

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used activation transfer functions (AFs) in ANNs are stepped, linear, sigmoid, and hyperbolic
sigmoid [66]. The selection of the suitable AF holds great importance in obtaining the most
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accurate results. This is due to the fact that AF imparts non-linearity to the networks [67].To
be more specific, TRANSIG (a bipolar sigmoid transfer function with outputs ranging between
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-1 and +1) and PURELIN (a transfer function of linear nature) are utilized in this study to
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obtain the results. It is noteworthy that the result of one iteration is used as the input of the next
iteration. Equation (1) represents the AF which is utilized by each neuron for the hidden layer
and the output layer. Equations (1)-(3) represent the processes occurring within an ANN
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function.
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1
𝑓ℎ (𝑧) = (1)
1 + ⅇ𝑧
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Ij = {(𝑤𝑗𝐴𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐹𝑆 × 𝐴𝐺𝐵𝐹𝐹𝑆 + 𝑤𝑗𝐴𝐹𝐴 × 𝐴𝐹𝐴 + 𝑤𝑗𝑄𝐹𝐴 × 𝐴𝑄𝐹𝐴

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Summation (2)
+ ⋯ … + 𝑤𝑗𝑇 × 𝑇 )} + 𝜃𝑗

𝐶𝑆 = 𝑓(𝐼𝑗 ) Transfer (3)

As the information starts propagating from the input layer to the hidden neurons, the training
process begins. The weights are biased and adjusted to set the rules in such a way that error in
the output is minimized. After this, the trained model is validated with the help of a testing
dataset. Similarly, ANFIS is a hybrid model that consists of both ANN and fuzzy algorithms.
The learning ability of ANN and the reasoning function of fuzzy logic are utilized in this
computation intelligence modeling method. ANFIS is well known for its higher accuracy in
solving non-linear relationship problems [68]. In a way similar to ANN, ANFIS also uses
datasets for training after which it provides the solutions to a fuzzy interface system (FIS) [69].
Several steps are involved in computation by ANFIS such as entry of the input parameters in
the fuzzy sets as per rules of linguistic activation. Certain rules are then specified by the experts
or selected from the available database. After that, fuzzy sets are mapped in accordance with
the set rules, and this process is called inference. In the end, the final output is obtained by
defuzzification of the of the fuzzy sets. In a nutshell, the ANFIS methodology consists of five
essential steps [70]. These include (i) Availability of data sets (ii) Development of ANFIS (iii)
Setting the variable (iv) Training and then validation (v) Final result/output. An ANFIS model
consists of five layers. The functions of these layers are as follows:
Layer 1: It is called the fuzzification layer. The prediction error obtained in this layer yields

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results that further explain the membership of the fuzzy functions of the input parameters and
the initial fuzzy rule base. It can be represented mathematically with the help of Equations (4)

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and (5).

𝑂𝑖1 = 𝜇𝐴𝑖 (𝐶𝐹), 𝑖 = 1,2

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𝑂𝑖1 = 𝜇𝐵𝑖−2 (𝑃𝐼), 𝑖 = 3,4
(4)
(5)
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Where 𝜇 = weight applied while establishing the fuzzy link function, 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝜇𝐴𝑖 (𝐶𝐹) along with
𝜇𝐵𝑖−2 (𝑃𝐼) indicates the application of any fuzzy membership function.
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Layer 2: In this layer the constant number of nodes perform simple multiplication. It estimates
the firing strength of the preset rules for the input parameters. The output parameters can be
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represented mathematically by Equation (6).

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𝑂𝑖2 = 𝜇𝐴𝑖 (𝐶𝐹). 𝜇𝐵𝑖 (𝑃𝐼), 𝑖 = 1,2 (6)

Layer 3: In the third layer the number of nodes is again constant and following the same
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process as of layer 2 they further normalize the firing strength of the last layer. Therefore, the
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obtained output is represented in the form of Equation (7).

𝑤𝑖
𝑂𝑖3 = 𝑤
̅𝑖 = (7)
𝑤1 + 𝑤2
Layer 4: In the fourth layer, the outputs are represented as the resultants of normalized firing
strength in the form of a first-degree polynomial. The results are presented in accordance with
the first-order Sugeno model. The results can be represented mathematically by the Equation
(8).
𝑂𝑖4 = 𝑤 ̅𝑖 {𝑝𝑖 (𝐶𝐹) + 𝑞𝑖 (𝑃𝐼) + 𝑟}
̅𝑖 𝑓𝑖 = 𝑤 (8)
Layer 5: In the fifth layer, the summation of the weighted rules takes place on a single node.
The end results of the model are obtained with the help of Equation (9).
 2
∑2𝑖=1 𝑤𝑖 𝑓𝑖
𝑂𝑖5 = ∑𝑤
̅𝑖 𝑓𝑖 = (9)
𝑤1 + 𝑤2
𝑖=1

In the structure of ANFIS layers 1 and 4 are adaptive. The three adaptable parameters ai, bi, and
ci are associated with the input function of the first layer. Similarly, pi, qi, and ri are called
consequent parameters. They belong to the first-order polynomial and are present in the fourth
layer [71].
The GEP approach is the computational intelligence technique based on the principles of
Darwin’s evolution theory and Mendel’s genetic theory [72]. GEP consists of chromosomes of
fixed length. It can help in solving complex and highly non-linear programs. Its functions

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involve solving regressions, modeling functions, predicting, and detecting. The data is selected
by the Roulette wheel method in which genetic operators are used to regenerate data

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simultaneously. Analogous to the concept of chromosomes in living beings, the unnecessary
data is discarded while the useful data is stored and passed on to the next generation through
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the chromosomes [73]. The GEP models are efficient because they utilize and exhibit simple
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mathematical equations for indicating the dependent output parameter. GEP consists of two
languages, that are, the language of genes and the language of expression trees (ETs). The
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structure of both languages is similar [74]. The steps involved in synthesizing a GEP model are
as under:
i) The random chromosomes are generated for designated numbers with the help of the
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Karwa language. Karwa language represents a symbol for introducing the

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chromosomes. A chromosome comprises a head and tail. A head may have functions
or terminal symbols while the tail is limited to terminal symbols only. The complexity
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of each parameter is represented by the size of the head. Whereas the number of genes
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represents the number of sub-ETs present in the model.

ii) The length of chromosomes is fixed and it is interchangeable in algebraic expression
[75]. The GEP gene can adapt the terms from the function sets such as set of arithmetic
operations (+,-,×,÷), Boolean logic functions (AND, NOT, OR, NOR, etc.),
trigonometric functions (cos, sin, ln), conditional functions (if, then, else) and others
[76].
iii) ETs of different shapes and sizes are used to represent the chromosomes. Then in
accordance with the ratio of chromosomes different primary genetic operations such as
crossover, mutation, transposition, and recombination are performed [77]. The ET can
be represented mathematically in the form of Equation (10).
 3
𝐸𝑇 = log (𝑖 − ) (10)
𝑗
iv) The process of genetic mutation continues unless the threshold value arrives. At this
value the entire process is completed [78].
v) If the desired termination criteria are not met, then the Roulette wheel method is applied
which selects the preferable chromosomes from the first generation and pass them on
to the next one. This process is repeated for a specific number of generations till a
perfect solution is obtained [79].

To carry on research the following methodology was adopted.

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3. Research Methodology
3.1. Data collection and preprocessing

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Data was collected from well-reputed international journals. [80], [80]–[92] A database of 156

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datasets was formed from extensively reviewed research articles. These datasets were further
utilized for the formation of the predictive models using AI data processing techniques. Most
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of the research articles used for data collection were published after the year 2000. The datasets
were selected for collection keeping in mind the important parameters such as the amount of
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SP used, and the CS of the GP obtained. It was done in order to make sure that no correlations
were used in the datasets and that more accurate results could be obtained by using these
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authentic datasets. Table 1 represents the descriptive statistics of all the data used in this
research. The methodology for data analysis is presented in Figure 1.
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Table 1. Descriptive statistics of input parameters

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GGB NaO Na2Si Tem

Parameters FA Fine Coarse SP CS
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FS H O3 p
252.4 151.4 1096.0 28.0
Mean 729.8 60.46 122.98 77.57 42.72
6 4 3 8
Standard Error 6.91 6.94 5.44 9.44 2.15 2.86 6.48 1.65 1.23
Median 270 135 760.5 1090.8 57.1 115.72 7.9 25 42.78
303.7 101.2
Mode 774 1090.8 81 81 0 30 27
5 5
Standard 20.5
86.27 86.73 67.97 117.85 26.84 35.71 80.98 15.33
Deviation 5
Sample 7442. 7522. 4620.5 13889. 720.4 1275.0 6558. 422. 234.9
Variance 73 67 4 31 3 7 29 41 5
 Kurtosis 2.47 2.21 0.03 -1.46 3.02 -0.93 -1.92 -0.86 0.57
Skewness -1.42 1.31 -0.78 0.33 1.18 0.15 0.2 0.31 0.58
Range 400 409 263.6 327 134.3 138.9 180 60 79.1
Minimum 0 0 547 966 9 54 0 0 10.5
Maximum 400 409 810.6 1293 143.3 192.9 180 60 89.6
39384 23624 113849 170980 9432. 19185. 12100 6663.
Sum 4380
.5 .5 .2 .4 26 44 .6 73
Count 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156 156

The dataset showed the constant water to binder ratio of 0.35 and 0.38. Therefore, it was not

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chosen as an input parameter. All the parameters which affect the CS of a GPC can be observed
in the descriptive statistics presented in Table 1. Units for FA, GGBFS, fine aggregates, SP,

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coarse aggregates, NaOH, and Na2SiO3 are Kg/m3. While the unit for temperature is °C and
CS is MPa. It can be observed that the CS of GPC ranges from 10.5 MPa to 89.6 MPa. The
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value sets represented in Table 1 are recommended for use in the development of an AI model
for strength prediction in this research. The distribution of data points plays a pivotal role in
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the efficiency of the developed models [77]. As well, the feature of the data, the size of the
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data, and the relationship between the outputs and inputs govern the accuracy of prediction
[93]. After collecting a considerable amount of data points, the data points are divided into
three subsets namely: training, testing, and validation sets.
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Data Collection
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Data Organization

Data Analyzation
Through Different
AI Techniques

Results
Presentation

Results
Comparison and
Comprehension

Figure 1. Flow Chart for Data Analysis

3.2. Architecture and performance of a model
For generating the neural models of ANN and ANFIS, MATLAB 2020b was used. The shelf
functionality of MATLAB such as neural network and fuzzy logic toolbox was utilized for the
synthesis of the AI models. At random 112 (70 percent) datasets were used for training the
model and 44 (30 percent) datasets were used for checking the accuracy of the obtained neural
network. The important parameters for assessing the efficiency of the formed AI models were
the time required by a model to train and the degree of training accuracy. In this research, the
input layer consisted of eight input nodes while the output layer consisted of one node. The
hidden neurons were kept constant at 10 for each iteration. The built-in Levenberg-Marquardt

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algorithm was employed for randomized data. Furthermore, feed-forward-back propagation
was used as a type of network. The statistical parametric details of the ANN model are

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mentioned in Table 2.

Table 2. Statistical parameters for the ANN model

Parameters
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Value/Type
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Training dataset 112
Validation dataset 22
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Testing dataset 22
Network type Feed-forward back-propagation
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Data division Random

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Number of hidden neurons 10

Number of epochs 35
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Training algorithm Levenberg-Marquardt

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Similarly, the same training, validation, and testing sets were used for preparing an ANFIS
model. Sub-cluster was used for creating a fuzzy inference system (FIS) because of the larger
number of data points involved. A hybrid optimization technique known as the least square and
back-propagation technique was utilized for training the FIS. A triangular membership function
(trimf) was constructed to obtain the optimized results. The statistical parameters of ANFIS are
represented in Table 3.

Table 3. Statistical parameters of ANFIS

Parameters Value/Type
Training dataset 112
Validation dataset 22
 Testing dataset 22
Number of fuzzy rules 6
Number of nodes 60
Training epoch numbers 50
Function type trimf
Optimization function Hybrid
FIS type Sub clustering
Genetic programming (GP) was invented by Cramer in 1985. It kept improving with the
passage of time. The term GEP was coined in 1999 by Candia Ferreira [74]. The GEP consists

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of simple chromosomes having a fixed length. It is used for regression solving, encoding
programs, and predicting complex data. The data is generated with the help of genetic operators

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and randomly selected through a roulette wheel. The vital data is stored for the next generation
while the useless data is discarded. The GEP models are efficient for they determine the
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dependent output parameters with the help of simple mathematical expressions. The GEP
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model in this research was prepared using GeneXproTools. The algorithm of GEP through the
GeneXproTools utilizes a large amount of heterogeneous data and creates several models [94].
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The parameters for GEP model prediction were selected after consulting the literature review
as well as trial and run method was adopted for selecting the optimal parameters [95]–[97]. At
last, the most optimal combination of parameters was finalized for the creation of the predictive
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model. The model was formulated in order to obtain simple mathematical equations for the CS
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of GPC. The parameters that affect the length of running programs are head size, the number
of genes, and the number of chromosomes. Several models depend on the head size and genes.
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The greater the number of head sizes and genes, the greater the coefficient of regression and
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the less the error margin in the predicted model values. The parametric values used while
formulating the GEP model for predicting the CS of GPC are listed in Table 4.

Table 4. Parametric values for GEP

Parameters Value/Type
Training dataset 112
Validation dataset 22
Testing dataset 22
Number of chromosomes 100
Number of genes 3
 Head size 8
Data type Floating number
Linking function Addition
Function set +, ×, ÷, ̶ , exp, x2
Maximum complexity 10 [ -10, 10]
Constant per gene Sub clustering
One-point recombination rate 0.00277
Rate of mutation 0.00138
Inversion rate 0.00546

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3.3. Measuring performance and evaluation criteria

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The performance of models was determined through six statistical analytical techniques. The
performance of all the predicted models through ANN, ANFIS, and GEP was measured at all
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stages such as training, testing, and validation. The statistical analytical techniques included
correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE),
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relative square error (RSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE),
and relative root mean square error (RRMSE). Similarly, the performance of all the proposed
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models was evaluated by the performance index (Pi). Pi is dependent on R and RRMSE [77].
All performance and evaluation measures are represented mathematically in Table 5.
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Table 5. Statistical Analytic Techniques

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Statistical Analytic Equation

Equations
Techniques Number
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𝑛
𝛴ⅈ=1 (ℎ𝑖 − ℎ̅𝑖 )(𝑡𝑖 − 𝑡̅𝑖 )
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𝑅 =
Correlation Coefficient 2 (11)
√∑𝑛𝑖=1(ℎ𝑖 − ℎ̅𝑖 ) 𝛴ⅈ=1
𝑛 (𝑡
𝑖 − 𝑡̅𝑖 )
2

∑𝑛𝑖=1| ℎ𝑖 − 𝑡𝑖 |
Mean Absolute Error 𝑀𝐴𝐸 = (12)
𝑛
𝑛
𝛴ⅈ=1 (𝑡𝑖 − ℎ𝑖 )2
Relative Square Error 𝑅𝑆𝐸 = 2 (13)
𝑛
𝛴ⅈ=1 (ℎ̅ − ℎ𝑖 )
𝑛
𝛴ⅈ=1 (ℎ𝑖 − 𝑡𝑖 )2
Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency 𝑁𝑆𝐸 = 1 − 2 (14)
𝑛
𝛴ⅈ=1 (ℎ𝑖 − ℎ̅)

𝑛 (ℎ 2
𝛴ⅈ=1 𝑖 − 𝑡𝑖 )
Root Mean Square Error 𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸 = √ (15)
𝑛
 Relative Root Mean 𝑛 (ℎ 2
1 𝛴ⅈ=1 𝑖 − 𝑡𝑖 )
𝑅𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸 = √ (16)
Square Error |ℎ̅| 𝑛
𝑅𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸
Performance Index 𝑃𝑖 = (17)
1 + 𝑅
In all the above equations, hi and ti are ith actual and predicted obtained values respectively.
Whereas ℎ̅𝑖 and 𝑡𝑖̅ are average values of actual and predicted outcomes, respectively. R is
utilized to assess the correlation between the predicted and actual outcomes. If R is greater than
0.8 it represents a strong correlation between the predicted and actual values [98]. But there is
one drawback in using only R that it does not apply to multiplication and division [95]. As a

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consequence, R2 was employed to get more efficient performance results owing to its unbiased
estimating capability. The closer the value of R2 to 1, the lesser the errors in obtained values

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[99]. Similarly, RMSE is another technique used to analyze the performance of the proposed
models. RMSE addresses larger errors much more efficiently. The closer the value of RMSE
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to 0, the lesser will be the error [100]. Briefly, a greater value of R and minimal values of MAE,
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RMSE, RRMSE, RSE, and NSE are indicators of an efficient calibration of the proposed
model.
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The data points get trained enormously and it results in the overfitting of data in various
machine learning techniques. Consequently, more errors are faced during testing as compared
to the training phase. To overcome this shortcoming, objective function (OBF) is utilized. OBF
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selects the most optimal model with lesser overfitting data [77]. Mathematically OBF can be
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expressed as:
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𝑛 𝑇 − 𝑛𝑉 𝑛𝑉
𝑂𝐵𝐹 = ( ) 𝑃𝑖𝑇 + 2 ( ) 𝑃𝑖𝑉 (18)
𝑛 𝑛
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In the above equation T stands for testing, V for validation, and n for the number of data
records. The closer the value of OBF to 0, the lesser will be overfitting in the model. In this
research, 12 combinations of parameters are analyzed to obtain the model with the least OBF.

A correlation heat map of input variables is presented in Figure 2. The darker colors show a
stronger correlation between the input variables and vice versa. For positive correlations when
one variable increases the other variable increases as well. Alternatively, for negative
correlation an increase in one variable results in a decrease of the other.
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Figure 2. Correlation heat map

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4. Results and discussion

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Following results were obtained after running different tests on artificial intelligence models:

4.1. Comparison of experimental and predicted plots of ANN, ANFIS, and GEP
Figure 3 represents the plots for cross-comparison of experimental and predicted data
graphically. It can be observed that the predicted values are greatly influenced by the input
parameters for assessing the CS of GGBFS and FA-based GPC. The points being closer to the
regression line are an indication of the better performance of the model. In predicting CS, the
coefficient of regression R2, is greater than 90 for GEP, while it falls below 70 percent for
ANFIS and ANN. It rules that the combination of fuzzy and neural is not advantageous in

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Figure 3. CS predicted: (a) ANN (b) ANFIS (c) GEP

predicting the CS in this scenario. The average value of the coefficient of regression is highest
for GEP, which is followed by ANFIS and then ANN. The GEP model outperforms ANFIS
and ANN in training, testing as well as validation phases as well.

4.2. Formulation of CS empirical relations using GEP

To accurately derive the CS empirical model relationships for determining CS, the GEP
algorithm is shown in the form of ETs in Figure 4. ETs were decoded for deriving the
mathematic equations. Equation (19) represents the CS characteristics that be employed
directly for predicting the CS of GPC. The number of data points in the proposed models is not
just in agreement with the minimum acceptable standards but they are also reliable in predicting

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the CS of GPC [101]–[103].

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2
1
𝐴𝑁𝑂𝐻 3 −16.16 𝐴𝐹𝐴+𝐴𝑁𝑂𝐻
𝐶𝑆 = [𝐴𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐹𝑆 − ] + [𝑇 − 12.4]3 + [ ]+[ ] + 𝐴𝑁𝑂𝐻 +
2.82 𝑄𝐶𝐴 𝐴𝐹𝐴−𝐴𝑁𝑂𝐻

[
1
1
(𝑄𝐹𝐴−𝐴𝑁𝑂𝐻−𝐴𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐹𝑆)3
6.92𝑄𝐹𝐴 4.56
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] + [7.15+𝑄𝐹𝐴] + [𝐴𝑁𝑂𝐻−𝑇 × 0.29 − 𝐴𝑁𝑂𝐻] + [𝐴𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐹𝑆 −
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𝑄𝑆𝑃 − 𝐴𝑁𝑂𝐻 + 𝑄𝑆𝑆] (19)
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Figure 4. ETs obtained from GEP algorithm.

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4.3. Sensitivity and parametric analysis

Sensitivity analysis (SA) determines the sensitivity of a proposed model to the changes in the
input parameters. The parameters are ranked according to their relevance [104]. The relative
contribution of the input parameters on CS of GPC of the proposed GEP model is calculated
by use of the equations given below:

𝑁𝑖 = 𝑓max (𝑥𝑖 ) − 𝑓mⅈn (𝑥𝑖 ) (20)

𝑁𝑖
𝑆𝐴 = 𝑗=1 (21)
∑ 𝑁𝑗
𝑛

In the Equation (20), 𝑓max (𝑥𝑖 ) is the maximum and 𝑓mⅈn (𝑥𝑖 )is the minimum output of the
obtained GEP model, respectively. Whereas the input domain is represented by i and other
input variables are constant. The results of SA are represented in Figure 5. It can be observed
from the illustration in Figure 5 that AFA, GGBFS, and CA are the most influential parameters
while assessing the CS of GPC.

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Figure 5. Sensitivity Analysis
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Similarly, parametric analysis (PA) is carried out to assess the robustness of the obtained GEP
model. The most influential input parameters are also highlighted in parametric analysis. The
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value of one input parameter is increased by a specific value while keeping the other input
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values constant at their mean. It helps in obtaining a highly accurate model and to evaluate the
model competency. Figure 6 represents the prediction capability of the proposed GEP model
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for the prediction of CS of GPC with varying inputs such as AGGBFS, AFA, QFA, QCA, QSS,
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QSP, and T. It can be observed that CS has a direct relationship with AFA, QSS and T. While
by increasing rest of the parameters CS decreases. However, taking a general overview of the
plot in Figure 6h, it can be seen that CS is increasing exponentially with the temperature rise.
Similarly, superplasticizers can increase the compressive strength of concrete by enhancing the
hydration reaction of cement and reducing the porosity and voids in the concrete matrix. So, in
Figure 6g the compressive strength increases by an increase in superplasticizer.
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Figure 6. Parametric Analysis; (a) QCA (b) AFA (c) QFA (d) AGGBFS (e) QSS (f) NaOH (g)
SP (h) T

4.4. ANN, ANFIS, and GEP models synthesis and analysis

According to Frank and Todeschini [105], the ratio of datasets to input parameters should be
greater than 3 and preferably greater than 5 for a robust model. In this research, the
aforementioned ratio results in 112/8 = 14 for the training stage and 44/8 = 5.5 for the testing
and validation phase. These values do not only exceed the desired criteria, but they are
significantly high as well. It can be observed from Table 5 that high correlation exists between
the actually performed and the obtained values. The correlation follows the order of GEP >
ANN > ANFIS, as indicated by the correlation coefficient. The average of MAE is highest for
ANFIS as compared to other models.

The performance evaluation of models cannot be completed merely based on R2. Therefore,

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the efficiency and robustness of the proposed models were also assessed by employing different
statistical techniques as well. The statistical performance parameters of all the proposed models

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during the training, testing, and validation phases are summarized in Table 5 for comparison
and evaluation.
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Table 5. Statistical parameters
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ANN ANFIS GEP
Parameters
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Train Valid Test Train Valid Test Train Valid Test

MAE 5.46 5.01 4.72 5.94 6.51 5.99 2.11 2.43 2.53
RSE 0.31 0.30 0.07 0.37 0.44 0.47 0.05 0.10 0.01
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RMSE 6.68 5.83 6.76 7.33 8.27 8.89 2.78 3.15 3.85
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R 0.83 0.97 0.97 0.80 0.83 0.94 0.97 0.97 0.99

NSE 0.69 0.69 0.92 0.62 0.58 0.87 0.95 0.94 0.98
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RRMSE 0.09 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.1
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Pi 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.005 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.005 0.05

OBF 0.02 0.014 0.016
* Test: Testing dataset, Train: Training dataset, Valid: Validation dataset

4.4.1. ANN
The ANN regression graphs of experimental versus predictive values of CG of GPC can be
obtained from the MATLAB neural network toolbox but they are not presented here due to
limited space. However, the correlation coefficient R is evidence that a high correlation exists
between the observed and predicted values in all phases of ANN (R is 0.83 for training, 0.97
for validation, and 0.97 for validation). The errors RMSE, MSE, and MAE are minimal for the
validation phase than the testing phase. It can be attributed to the disadvantage of ANN that it
overfits the resultant model that restrains the vivid representation of the relationship between
input variables. Along with this, ANN may terminate at a specific state rather than a globally
optimized state, aiding in fallacious results. The OBF value is 0.02 (OBF ≈ 0 represents an
ideal model). This implies that the OBF value lies in the allowable limit and the proposed can
overcome overfitting and can be employed successfully to test any unseen data.

4.4.2. ANFIS
To optimize the raw data values, the same values used to train, validate, and test the ANN
model were used in ANFIS as well. Therefore, the obtained results of both models differ from
each other. The value of R for training is 0.80, validation is 0.83, and for testing is 0.94. Such

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high values of R near unity are considered satisfactory and represent the strong prediction
capability of the proposed model. The magnitudes of errors RMSE, MSE, and MAE are higher

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but the values of Pi and OBF are identical to the other two predictive models and are in

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acceptable range. Hence, this model can be employed satisfactorily for predicting the CS of
GPC.
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4.4.3. GEP
The GEP model was developed by utilizing 157 data records. Table 5 shows the recorded R
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values as 0.97, 0.97, and 0.99 for the training, validation, and testing phases respectively. These
are the highest values of R of all three models. It represents the strong prediction ability of the
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proposed GEP model. In contrast to ANN and ANFIS lowest values of MAE 2.11, 2.43, and
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2.53 were observed for training, validation, and testing respectively. The values of MSE and
RMSE are also minimal for GEP as compared to ANN and ANFIS. While the values of Pi and
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OBF are identical to the other two models. It suggests that all three models can be employed
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for the prediction of CS of GPC with the advantage of simple mathematical expressions.

4.4.4. Comparison and performance evaluation of proposed models

Table 5 suggests that there exists a strong correlation between the experimental and predicted
values. The correlation follows the order: GEP > ANN > ANFIS. The average value of MAE
is highest in the case of ANFIS while lowest in the case of GEP. This implies that GEP shows
the lowest value of errors (MAE and MSE). Since RMSE errors are squared it shows that a
larger weight is allocated to errors. GEP showed the lowest average value of MAE. It is due to
the fact that it is able to optimize applicable mathematical equations which simplify the output
estimation. Also, the values of Pi, OBF, and RRMSE approach 0 show the ideal formulation of
the proposed models. OBF values validated the overall efficiency of the proposed models.
In addition, multiple linear regression (MLR) regression was also performed on the whole
dataset. The results of MLR are represented in Figure 7 (d). MLR develops a relationship
between dependent and independent variables. In this research, MLR presents the relationship
between dependent and independent variables as a linear function between the predicted and
predictor values.

As evident from Figure 7, the proposed GEP model outperforms the other two models in
predicting the CS of GPC. The GEP model obtains simple mathematical equations. Utilizing
these equations to predict the CS of GPC is much faster than the conventional methods. It can
be concluded that the proposed mathematical expressions are a practicable procedure for

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determining the CS of GPC.

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In this study, the compressive strength of concrete containing fly ash and GGBS was predicted
using various models and compared with the experimental results. The results showed that the
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models were able to capture the general trend of increasing compressive strength with
increasing fly ash and GGBS content, but they also exhibited some deviations and
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discrepancies. The sources of these errors could be attributed to the assumptions and
simplifications made by the models, the variability and uncertainty of the input parameters, and
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the influence of other factors such as curing conditions, temperature, and humidity. The
comparison also revealed the strengths and weaknesses of each model, as well as the areas
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where they could be improved or modified. It can be seen in Figure 7 that almost all the models
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performed well but GEP was able to devise a model that predicted compressive strength nearest
to that in the experimental modeling. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding
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and optimization of the performance of fly ash and GGBS-based concrete and provide useful
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insights for future research and applications.

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(a)

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 (c)

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(d)
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Figure 7. Comparison of proposed models for prediction of CS of GPC; (a) ANN (b) ANFIS
(c) GEP (d) MLR

5. Conclusion

Three AI techniques namely ANN, ANFIS, and GEP are used in this study to find the CS of
GPC synthesized from FA and GGBFS. The database was created from extensively reviewed
international research journals. The database comprised 156 data points. The following
conclusions are drawn from this study:

• The performance of all the models was assessed using statistical tools and parameters
such as MAE, MSE, R, R2, RMSE, RRMSE, OBF, and Pi. The RRMSE of the GEP
model is 0.03, which is the lowest of all the proposed models. The OBF value for the
GEP model is 0.016 which is lower as well. Hence, it can be concluded from the
comparison of results that GEP is a reliable and efficient technique for the prediction
of CS of GPC.

• The mathematical expressions obtained through the GEP model are more simplified

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than those of the ANN and ANFIS models. It is suggested to utilize the obtained GEP

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model in routine practices. In addition, the GEP model does not require a prior solution,
depicts the physical process, and assesses the appropriate relations between variables.

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However, obtained GEP mathematical expressions can be modified for a wider range
of data when more data points are available.
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• The obtained model can be effectively utilized for future predictions of CS of GPC
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using simple GPC input parameters. This method is efficient, cost-saving, time-saving,
and a reliable way to deal with GPCs.

FUTURE RECOMMENDATIONS
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At last, while considering the findings of this research, it can be concluded that AI techniques
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are vigorous and useful tools to solve complex problems, especially in the field of GPs. Any
unseen data can be generalized by use of simple mathematical expressions. Furthermore, the
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authors recommend that the results of this study may be validated upon the availability of more
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recent data and to study several other AI methodologies such as random forest (RF) regression,
support vector machines (SVMs), gradient boosted trees (GBTs), multi expression
programming (MEP), among various others. Owing to the inherent shortcomings such as model
uncertainty, knowledge extraction, and model interpretability, soft computing methods still
face opposition. These shortcomings can be overcome by gaining prior knowledge about the
hidden physical process behind these methods.

Acknowledgement:

The authors are thankful to the Deanship of Scientific Research at Najran University for
funding this work under the National Research Priorities funding program grant code
(NU/NRP/SERC/11/23).
References

(The source of the database was from separate FA-based concrete and GGBFS-based
concrete)

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Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal
relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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