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Advances in Electric Power and Energy Static State Estimation Mohamed E El Hawary Full Chapter
Advances in Electric Power and Energy Static State Estimation Mohamed E El Hawary Full Chapter
EDITED BY
MOHAMED E. EL-HAWARY
Dalhousie University
© 2021 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
Names: El-Hawary, M. E., editor. | John Wiley & Sons, Inc., publisher.
Title: Advances in electric power and energy : static state estimation /
edited by Mohamed E El-Hawary, Dalhousie University.
Description: Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., [2021] |
Series: IEEE Press | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2020028681 (print) | LCCN 2020028682 (ebook) | ISBN
9781119480464 (hardback) | ISBN 9781119584506 (hardback) | ISBN
9781119480365 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119480440 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Electric power systems–State estimation.
Classification: LCC TK1005 .A35 2020 (print) | LCC TK1005 (ebook) | DDC
621.319/1–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020028681
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020028682
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
TO FRED C. SCHWEPPE, 1933–1988
1.1 Prelude 1
1.2 Defining SSE 2
1.3 The Need for State Estimation 3
1.4 Static State Estimation in Practice 4
1.5 Applications That Use SE Solution 10
1.6 Overview of Chapters 13
2.1 Introduction 23
2.2 Formulation 24
2.3 Classical State Estimation Procedure 26
2.4 Mathematical Programming Solution 31
2.5 Alternative State Estimators 32
3.1 Introduction 61
3.2 Cascading Blackouts and Previous Work 62
3.3 Problem Statement and Approach 66
3.4 DFAXes, Vulnerability, and Criticality Metrics 70
3.5 Validity of Metrics 78
3.6 Studies with Metrics 82
3.7 Summary 93
3.8 Application of Stress Metrics 94
3.9 Conclusions 94
vii
viii CONTENTS
4.1 Introduction 99
4.2 Cyberattacks on State Estimation 100
4.3 ATTACK-RESILIENT State Estimation 103
4.4 Model-Based Anomaly Detection 106
4.5 Conclusions 117
INDEX 475
ABOUT THE EDITOR
xi
xii ABOUT THE EDITOR
He was Associate Editor for the three major Electric Machines and Power Systems’
Journals and Editor of Electrical Power Engineering, McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia
of Science and Technology. He was a Fellow of IEEE, Canadian Academy of Engi-
neering, Engineers Canada, and the Engineering Institute of Canada. He was a Dis-
tinguished Lecturer of the IEEE Power and Energy Society.
He served as a member of the Board of Directors and Secretary of IEEE and
as President of IEEE Canada. He served on the IEEE Publication Services and Pro-
ducts Board, Fellows Committee, IEEE Press Board Chairman, Power Engineering
Society (PES): System Operations Committee Chair and, member of HKN Board,
and Vice President, Development, IEEE Canada Foundation. He has been recipient
of IEEE Canada, W. S. Read Service Award, 2010. In 1999 IEEE awarded him the
EAB Meritorious Achievement, Power Engineering Educator of the Year, and
IEEE Canada General A.G.L. McNaughton Gold Medal.
ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS
xiii
xiv ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS
George J. Cokkinides was born in Athens, Greece, in 1955. He received the BS,
MS, and PhD degrees from the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA,
USA, in 1978, 1980, and 1985, respectively. From 1983 to 1985, he was a
Research Engineer at the Georgia Tech Research Institute. Since 1985, he has been
with the University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA, where he is currently
an Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering. His research interests include
power system modeling and simulation, power electronics applications, power
system harmonics, and measurement instrumentation. Professor Cokkinides is a
member of the IEEE Power and Energy Society.
Venkata Dinavahi received the BEng. degree in electrical engineering from the
Visveswaraya National Institute of Technology (VNIT), Nagpur, India, in 1993,
the MTech. degree in Electrical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technol-
ogy (IIT) Kanpur, India, in 1996, and the PhD degree in Electrical and Computer
engineering from the University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, in 2000. Presently he
is a Professor with the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,
University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. His research interests include
real-time simulation of power systems and power electronic systems, electromag-
netic transients, device-level modeling, large-scale systems, and parallel and
distributed computing. He is a Fellow of IEEE.
James W. Feltes received his BS degree with honors in Electrical Engineering
from Iowa State University and his MS degree in Electrical Engineering from
Union College.
He joined Power Technologies, Inc. (PTI), now part of Siemens Power Trans-
mission and Distribution Inc., in 1979 and is currently a senior manager. At PTI, he
has participated in many studies involving planning, analysis, and design of trans-
mission and distribution systems. He has also been involved in many projects invol-
ving the development of models for studies of power system dynamics, testing to
record equipment response, and model parameter derivation.
He is a registered professional engineer in the state of New York and a Fellow
of the IEEE. He is a member of the IEEE Power Engineering Society and Industry
Applications Society and is active on several IEEE committees and task forces.
Georgios B. Giannakis (Fellow’97) received his Diploma in Electrical Engineering
from the National Technical University of Athens, Greece, 1981. From 1982 to 1986
he was with the University of Southern California (USC), where he received his
MSc in Electrical Engineering, 1983, MSc in Mathematics, 1986, and PhD in
Electrical Engineering, 1986. He was a faculty member with the University of
Virginia from 1987 to 1998, and since 1999 he has been a professor with the
University of Minnesota, where he holds an ADC Endowed Chair, a University
of Minnesota McKnight Presidential Chair in ECE, and serves as director of the
Digital Technology Center.
His general interests span the areas of statistical learning, communications,
and networking – subjects on which he has published more than 470 journal
papers, 770 conference papers, 25 book chapters, two edited books, and two
ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS xv
research monographs. His current research focuses on Data Science, and Network
Science with applications to the Internet of Things, and power networks with
renewables. He is the (co-) inventor of 34 issued patents, and the (co-) recipient
of 9 best journal paper awards from the IEEE Signal Processing (SP) and Commu-
nications Societies, including the G. Marconi Prize Paper Award in Wireless
Communications. He also received the IEEE-SPS Norbert Wiener Society Award
(2019); EURASIP’s A. Papoulis Society Award (2020); Technical Achievement
Awards from the IEEE-SPS (2000) and from EURASIP (2005); the IEEE ComSoc
Education Award (2019); the G. W. Taylor Award for Distinguished Research
from the University of Minnesota, and the IEEE Fourier Technical Field Award
(2015). He is a foreign member of the Academia Europaea, and Fellow of the
National Academy of Inventors, the European Academy of Sciences, IEEE and
EURASIP. He has served the IEEE in a number of posts, including that of a
Distinguished Lecturer for the IEEE-SPS.
Manimaran Govindarasu currently holds the Mehl Professor of Computer
Engineering at Iowa State University. His area of expertise includes CPS for the
smart grid, cyber security, and real-time systems and networks. He is a Fellow
of the IEEE.
Ye Guo is an Assistant Professor at Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute,
Tsinghua University. He received his bachelor degree in 2008 and doctoral degree
in 2013, both from the Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University.
He was a Postdoctoral Associate at Cornell University between 2014 and 2018. His
research interests include distributed optimization, game and market theory, state
estimation, and their applications in power and energy systems. He has received
the Best-of-the-Best paper award and another Best Paper Award at IEEE PES Gen-
eral Meeting, 2019, and another Best Paper Award at IEEE PES General Meeting
2020. He also received the Best Poster Award at PSERC IAB Meeting 2018.
Ibrahim Omar Habiballah is an Associate Professor of EE Department at King
Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Saudi Arabia. In his area he taught
several undergraduate and graduate courses in electrical, power systems, power
transmission, and electrical machines. His research interests include power systems
in general, power system state estimation, power system optimization, HV insula-
tors, and energy conservation.
Araceli Hernández received the PhD degree in Electrical Engineering from the
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain, in 2000. Currently,
she works at the Department of Control, Electrical and Electronic Engineering
and Computing at UPM, where she is an Associate Professor. Her fields of interest
include power system analysis and power quality estimation and measurement.
Hadis Karimipour received the PhD degree from the University of Alberta in
2016. She is currently a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Department of Electrical and
Computer Engineering at the University of Calgary. Her research interests include
large-scale power system state estimation, cyber-physical modeling, cybersecurity
of the smart grids, and parallel and distributed computing.
xvi ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS
the Montefiore Institute, Belgium. He is the Chairman of the Georgia Tech Protec-
tive Relaying Conference and a member of Sigma Xi.
Hyde M. Merrill received the BA degree in Mathematics and MS degree in Elec-
trical Engineering from the University of Utah and the PhD degree in Electrical
Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is a registered
professional engineer in New York and a Fellow of the IEEE.
He has worked for the American Electric Power Service Corp, the MIT
Energy Lab, Power Technologies, Inc., the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, and
Merrill Energy LLC. In 2015, he joined the University of Utah as Adjunct Profes-
sor. He teaches power systems and leads research on blackouts.
Lamine Mili is a Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Virginia
Tech. He is an IEEE Fellow and a member of Institute of Mathematical Statistics
and the American Statistical Association. His research interests include power sys-
tem analysis and control, power system dynamics and stability, and robust statistics
as applied to engineering problems.
Michael Negnevitsky received his BE (Hons.) and PhD degrees from the Byelo-
russian University of Technology, Belarus, in 1978 and 1983, respectively. Cur-
rently, he is a Professor in Power Engineering and Computational Intelligence
and Director of the Centre for Renewable Energy and Power Systems, University
of Tasmania, Australia. He is a Chartered Professional Engineer, Fellow of Engi-
neers Australia, and Member of the National ITEE College Board. His research
interests include power system security, renewable energy, and state estimation.
Marco Pau received the MS degree (cum laude) in Electrical Engineering and the
PhD degree in Electronic Engineering and Computer Science from the University of
Cagliari, Italy, in 2011 and 2015, respectively. Currently, he is research associate at
the Institute for Automation of Complex Power Systems at the E.ON Energy
Research Center, RWTH Aachen University, Germany, where he leads the team
for Distribution Grid Monitoring and Automation. His research activities mainly
concern the design of solutions for the monitoring and automation of distribution
systems as well as techniques for the smart management of active distribution grids.
Paolo Attilio Pegoraro received the MS (summa cum laude) degree in Telecom-
munications engineering and the PhD degree in Electronic and Telecommunication
Engineering from the University of Padova, Padua, Italy, in 2001 and 2005,
respectively. From 2015 to 2018 he was an Assistant Professor with the Depart-
ment of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Cagliari, Cagliari,
Italy, where he is currently Associate Professor. He has authored or coauthored
over 110 scientific papers. His current research interests include the development
of new measurement techniques for modern power networks, with attention to syn-
chronized measurements and state estimation.
Dr. Pegoraro is a Senior Member of IEEE Instrumentation and Measurement
Society, member of TC 39 (Measurements in Power Systems) and of IEC TC
38/WG 47. He is an Associate Editor of the IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation
and Measurement.
xviii ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS
Ferdinanda Ponci graduated with PhD in Electrical Engineering from the Politec-
nico di Milano, in 2002. She joined the Department of Electrical Engineering, Uni-
versity of South Carolina, as an Assistant Professor in 2003 and became Associate
Professor in 2008. In 2009, she joined the Institute for Automation of Complex
Power Systems, RWTH Aachen University, where she is currently Professor for
“Monitoring and distributed control for power systems.”
She is Senior Member of IEEE and of the AdCom of the IEEE Instrumen-
tation and Measurement Society.
Md. Ashfaqur Rahman is a PhD candidate in the Department of Electrical and
Computer Engineering in Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA. He received
his BS from Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology in 2009
and MS from Texas Tech University in 2012. He has a total of 7 technical papers
with 98 citations with h-index and i-index be 3. His current research interests
include the development of a distributed dynamic state estimator. He also worked
on false data injection attack, parallel and distributed computation, state prediction,
contingency analysis, optimal power flow, etc. He has served as a reviewer of IEEE
journals and conference papers.
Sara Sulis received the MS degree in Electrical Engineering and the PhD degree in
Industrial Engineering from the University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy, in 2002 and
2006, respectively. She is currently Associate Professor of Instrumentation and Mea-
surements with the University of Cagliari. Dr. Sulis is a Senior Member of the IEEE,
member of the Instrumentation and Measurement Society, of the IEEE TC 39
“Measurements in Power Systems,” and of the CENELEC TC 38 “Instrument Trans-
formers.” She has authored or coauthored more than 100 scientific papers. Her
current research interests include distributed measurement systems designed to per-
form state estimation and harmonic sources estimation of distribution networks.
Hongbin Sun is a Professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua
University, Beijing, China, the Changjiang Chair Professor of Education Ministry
of China, and an IEEE Fellow. He received double BS degrees in 1992 and PhD in
1997, respectively, both from Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University. His
research interests include automatic voltage control (AVC), smart grid, renewable
energy and electrical vehicle integration, and power system operation and control.
Lang Tong is the Irwin and Joan Jacobs Professor of Engineering at Cornell Uni-
versity and the Cornell site Director of Power Systems Engineering Research Cen-
ter (PSERC). He received a BE degree from Tsinghua University and a PhD degree
in Electrical Engineering from the University of Notre Dame. He held visiting posi-
tions at Stanford University, the University of California at Berkeley, the Delft
University of Technology, and the Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden.
Lang Tong’s current research focuses on data analytics, optimization, and
economic problems in energy and power systems. A Fellow of IEEE and the
2018 Fulbright Distinguished Chair in Alternative Energy, he received paper
awards from the IEEE Circuit and Systems, Signal Processing, Communications,
and Power and Energy Systems societies.
ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS xix
KFUPM, Saudi Arabia, in electrical and power system in 2014. He is familiar with
international and domestic codes/standards, AutoCAD drawing, master excel skills
with VB programming, and other programming language such as Matlab, python,
and Linux shell.
Boming Zhang is a Professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsin-
ghua University, Beijing, China. He received MEng. from Harbin Institute of
Technology in 1982 and PhD from Tsinghua University in 1985, both in Electrical
Engineering. He has been serving for Tsinghua University since 1985. His research
area includes power system analysis, computer application in power system control
center, etc. He won IEEE PES/CSEE Yu-Hsiu Ku Electrical Engineering Award
in 2015.
Junbo Zhao (SM’19) received the PhD degree from the Bradley Department of
Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA, in
2018. He was an Assistant Professor (Research) with Virginia Tech from May
2018 to August 2019. He did the summer internship at the Pacific Northwest
National Laboratory from May 2017 to August 2017. He is currently an Assistant
Professor with Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS, USA. He has written
three book chapters and published more than 70 peer-reviewed journal and confer-
ence papers, among which there are three ESI papers. His research interests are
power system modeling, state estimation, dynamics and cybersecurity, synchro-
phasor applications, renewable energy integration and control, and robust statisti-
cal signal processing and machine learning.
Dr. Zhao is a co-recipient of the best paper award of 2019 IEEE PES ISGT
Asia, and the best reviewer of the IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYS-
TEMS 2018 and the IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID 2019. He is cur-
rently the Chair of the IEEE Task Force on Power System Dynamic State and
Parameter Estimation, and the Secretary of the IEEE Working Group on State Esti-
mation Algorithms and the IEEE Task Force on Synchrophasor Applications in
Power System Operation and Control. He serves as the Associate Editor of the
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, the IEEE TRANSACTIONS
ON SMART GRID, and International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy
Systems, and the Subject Editor of IET Generation, Transmission and Distribution.
Hao Zhu is an Assistant Professor of ECE at University of Texas at Austin. She
received a BE degree from Tsinghua University in 2006 and MSc and PhD degrees
from the University of Minnesota in 2009 and 2012, all in Electrical Engineering.
Her current research interests include power grid monitoring, distribution system
operations and control, and energy data analytics. She received the NSF CAREER
Award in 2017, the Siebel Energy Institute Seed Grant Award and the US AFRL
Summer Faculty Fellowship in 2016.
CHAPTER 1
GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
Mohamed E. El-Hawary
Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
1.1 PRELUDE
At the IEEE Power Industry Computer Applications (PICA) conference held on
18–21 May 1969 in Denver, Colorado, Professor Fred C. Schweppe and his associates
presented a three-part paper on static state estimation and related detection and iden-
tification problems in electric power systems. The papers were subsequently pub-
lished in the IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems [1–3]. The first
paper [1] introduced the overall problem statement, mathematical modeling, and gen-
eral algorithms for state estimation, detection, and identification (SEDI) using
weighted least squares (WLS) approximations. The second paper [2] discussed an
approximate mathematical model and the resulting simplifications in SEDI. The third
paper [3] dealt with implementation problems, considerations of dimensionality, exe-
cution speed and storage, and the time-varying nature of actual power systems.
A year later, Merrill and Schweppe [4] introduced a bad data suppression
(BDS) estimator, which is computationally very similar to WLS approximation.
Advances in Electric Power and Energy: Static State Estimation, First Edition.
Edited by Mohamed E. El-Hawary.
© 2021 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.
Published 2021 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
1
2 CHAPTER 1 GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
The concept is no more complex, and bad data detection and identification can be
performed “for free,” since BDS requires no more computer time or complexity
than does WLS, and in the absence of bad data, BDS reduces to WLS.
While [21] referred to RTUs as the eyes and ears and hands of the master
station, the phrase came to be commonly used to refer to the state estimator as
the eyes and ears of the real-time operator. Indeed, in current practice the state esti-
mator prevails as an “essential” tool for power system operators’ “situational
awareness.” Existing NERC reliability standards assume the use of state estimators
to aid RCs and TOPs in maintaining situational awareness for the bulk electric
system. The state estimator must be available and able to produce an accurate solu-
tion because many applications rely on the state estimator solution as base case.
State estimators are commercially available allowing SCADA/EMS vendors
to provide viable state estimators off the shelf with some customization and fully
integrated with users’ production SCADA/EMS systems. State estimators are used
as input to monitor MVA/ampere loadings and low and high bus voltages, voltage
drop, voltage node angle separation, SCADA, and visualization. Therefore, it is
important that it be available and produce an accurate solution.
Single-pass methods execute one estimation that simultaneously includes
internal and external networks, observable/internal network, and nonobservable/
1.4 STATIC STATE ESTIMATION IN PRACTICE 5
external network solved together. The two-pass method deals with two state
estimates, one for the internal system and another for the external system or for
the entire system (observable/internal network and nonobservable/external net-
work solved separately). Many in the power industry prefer using a single-pass
over a two-pass solution.
According to [22], the single-pass method suffers from numerical instability.
An enhancement to the one-pass method uses a set of critical external pseudo-
measurements. Some alternative two-pass state estimators require a load flow
study for the external system. Both two-pass methods reduce the effects of
boundary errors in the internal system solution by properly weighing the external
pseudo-measurements, but they may result in very high or negative loads and
generations in the external system. Zero-injection buses are more commonly trea-
ted as high-confidence bus injection measurements than as hard constraints.
For an overwhelming majority of users, the state estimator solution is used as
a base case for reliability-analysis applications such as contingency analysis (CA),
power flow (PF), and as input to system analysis tools such as:
1. Online/operator PF
2. Offline PF
3. Locational marginal pricing (LMP)
4. Voltage stability analysis
5. Security-constrained economic dispatch
In some cases, the state estimator is used primarily as the basis for informa-
tion communicated to operators regarding power system status; e.g. the state esti-
mator drives the alarm application that alerts operators to impending power system
events.
• Periodically review all stations to correct high residuals and minimize all
residuals as much as reasonably possible.
• Compare CA results to actual system.
• Compare power flow results with actual system.
• Compare state estimator actual violations to see if they closely match actual
SCADA violations.
• Compare state estimator total company load/generation/interchange inte-
grated over time to see if it closely matches billing metering.
Online load flow programs are a standard part of all energy management system
specification [28].
Online PF is widely used to assess system conditions or perform look-ahead
analysis. It is also used in “n − 1” CA and to identify potential future voltage col-
lapse or reliability problems.
Real-time reliability tools can only provide results that accurately represent
current and potential reliability problems if these tools have real-time PF and volt-
age values and status data for other elements included in their models. The accu-
racy of the information that real-time reliability tools provide depends on the
accuracy of the data supplied to the tools.
based on a recent snapshot of the real-time system. VSA may derive minimum vol-
tages at key buses below which voltage collapse might occur if the system experi-
ences additional stresses. It may also provide information on minimum dynamic
reactive reserves required in local areas.
VSA is different from offline voltage stability analysis tools used by planners
for medium-term or long-term studies. But if such tools are used for studying near
real-time snapshots to answer operator’s voltage stability questions, they would be
included in the VSA real-time tool suite.
expected, the authors report that their computational experiments reported in this
chapter suggest that alternative estimators are potential substitutes for traditional
WLS method. The state of the art of current nonlinear optimization solvers and
recent advances in computational equipment allows using robust estimators in real
electric energy systems.
Chapter 3 draws on two bodies of knowledge – electric power engineering and
network (graph) theory – to develop and apply a new failure network, an application
of line outage distribution factors. Here Hyde M. Merrill and James W. Feltes present
an approach to measure how susceptible is an electric power system to cascading
outages (stress) that lead to blackouts. The problem is defined in the context of a
new perspective of the electric power system. A failure network is defined, based
on well-known line outage distribution factors. Following the practice of network
(graph) theory, the structure and properties of this network are analyzed with metrics
that measure stress (susceptibility to cascading outages). The metrics can be applied
in real-time operations or in planning to identify vulnerability to cascading. Three
studies are described, two on very large North American systems, the other on
the smaller national system of Peru. New insights are presented, and a new class
of power system options is identified, to reduce susceptibility to cascading rather
than to increase transfer capability.
The ideas have application in planning as well as in real time. For operations,
it depends, as Schweppe expected, on data from a state estimator. But the addi-
tional computations go far beyond simply calculating flows and injections using
Ohm’s and Kirchhoff’s laws.
The authors of Chapter 4, “Model-Based Anomaly Detection for Power System
State Estimation”, Aditya Ashok, Manimaran Govindarasu, and Venkataramana
Ajjarapu, recognize that state estimators depend on SCADA measurements from
the various remote substations, which introduces several vulnerabilities due to mali-
cious cyberattacks. The security and resiliency of the power system state estimator are
important since its output is used by several other network applications in the EMS
such as real-time CA, power markets, etc. While SE is designed to detect and recover
from some degree of bad data injected due to measurement errors, or even measure-
ment loss due to telemetry issues, they could be impacted by malicious cyberattacks
causing loss of observability, operational, and market impacts. A holistic approach to
attack-resilient SE should involve a combination of attack-resilient planning
approaches to improve attack prevention capabilities in conjunction with attack-
resilient anomaly detection and robust SE formulations to improve attack detection
and mitigation resulting in a defense-in-depth architecture.
This chapter starts with a broad survey of relevant state-of-the-art literature
that addresses the vulnerability of SE to stealthy false data injection attacks and
topology-based attacks. This is followed by a review of some offline attack pre-
vention approaches to enhance the redundancy of SE against those stealthy cyber-
attacks and online techniques for attack detection and mitigation that address
anomaly detection, bad data detection, and other formulations of SE. A model-
based anomaly detection approach uses short-term load forecasts, generation
1.6 OVERVIEW OF CHAPTERS 15
schedules, and available secure PMU data to detect anomalies due to stealthy
cyberattacks. This approach is complementary to traditional bad data detection
methods in SE to detect stealthy cyberattacks. This chapter offers some insights
into the performance of the proposed anomaly detection approach using a case
study on the IEEE 14-bus system. Finally, this chapter provides a summary of
the contributions and promising directions for emerging research topics that show
promise for the future including PMU-based linear state estimator, integrated
hybrid SE formulations with PMU data and SCADA, robust and dynamic SE for-
mulations, and MTD-based approaches for SE that leverage redundancy and ran-
domization of measurements.
A. P. Sakis Meliopoulos, Yu Liu, Sungyun Choi, and George J. Cokkinides
propose in Chapter 5 a scheme for real-time operation and protection of microgrids
based on distributed dynamic state estimation (DDSE). First, the DDSE can be
used for setting-less component protection that applies dynamic state estimation
on a component under protection with real-time measurements and dynamic mod-
els of the component. Based on the results, the well-known χ 2 test yields the con-
fidence level that quantifies the goodness of fit of models to measurements,
indicating the health status of the component. With this approach, renewable DERs
in microgrids can be protected on an autonomous and adaptive basis. Meanwhile,
the estimated state variables of each component are converted to phasor data with
time tags and then collected to the DERMS of microgrids. These aggregated phasor
data that are once filtered by the DDSE are input to the static state estimator in the
DERMS along with unfiltered data sent from conventional meters, relays, and dig-
ital fault recorders, ultimately generating real-time operating conditions of micro-
grids. This chapter also provides numerical simulations to compare the DDSE-
based approach with conventional centralized state estimation in terms of data
accuracy and computational speeds.
Any component in microgrids can be protected by the proposed setting-less
protection method, capable of tracking full dynamic characteristics of a device
under protection. This method can provide adaptive protection in microgrids,
where unpredictable fault conditions or abnormal states may arise. It is important
to point out that the setting-less protection is fundamentally based on the physical
characteristics, thus requiring no additional settings for grid conditions. The
authors suggest that the approach also facilitates real-time operation by reducing
the state estimation computation time as well as by enhancing the accuracy of esti-
mation results. In this sense, the DDSE can be of great importance to the real-time
operation and management of microgrids in which the penetration of renewable
DERs has recently increased.
In Chapter 6, “Distributed Robust Power System State Estimation” by Vas-
silis Kekatos, H. Zhu, G. Wang, and Georgios B. Giannakis discuss some of the
recent advances in power system state estimation (PSSE). The Cramer–Rao lower
bound (CRLB) on the covariance of any unbiased estimator is first derived for the
PSSE setup. Following a review of conventual Gauss–Newton iterations, contem-
porary PSSE solvers leveraging relaxations to convex programs and successive
convex approximations are explored. To overcome the high complexity involved,
16 CHAPTER 1 GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
distribution. This effectively allows combining it with the buffered PMU measure-
ments for final state estimation. Robust Mahalanobis distances are proposed to
detect outliers and assign appropriate weights to each buffered PMU measurement.
Those weights are further utilized by the SHGM estimator to filter out non-
Gaussian PMU measurement noise and help suppress outliers. Extensive simula-
tion results carried out on the IEEE-30 bus test system demonstrate the effective-
ness and robustness of the proposed method.
Chapter 9 by Ibrahim Omar Habiballah and Yuanhai Xia: “Least-Trimmed-
Absolute-Value State Estimator” is intended to improve the accuracy of estimation
results considering complex situations induced by multiple types of bad data. In
addition to conventional state estimators such as WLS and LAV, other robust esti-
mators are used to detect and filter out bad data. This includes, among many, least
median squares and least-trimmed square estimators. The authors introduce an effi-
cient robust estimator known as least-trimmed-absolute-value estimator. The algo-
rithm arises from the two estimators: LAV and LTS and benefits the merits of both.
It can detect and eliminate both single and multiple bad data more efficiently. DC
estimation is conducted on 6-bus system and IEEE 14-bus system first; then these
two systems and the IEEE 30-bus system are used to conduct AC estimation
experiments. Various types of bad data are simulated to evaluate the performance
of the proposed robust estimator.
A new probabilistic approach to state estimation in distribution networks
based on confidence levels is introduced in Chapter 10. Here, Bernd Brinkmann
and Michael Negnevitsky state that their proposal uses the confidence that the
estimated parameters are within their constraints as a primary output of the estima-
tor. By using the confidence value, it is possible to combine information about the
estimated value as well as the accuracy of the estimate into a single number. Their
motivation is that the traditional approach to state estimation only provides the esti-
mated values to the network operator without any information about the accuracy
of the estimates. This works well in transmission networks where a large number of
redundant measurements are generally available. However, due to economic
constraints, the number of available real-time measurements in distribution
networks is usually low. This can lead to a significant amount of uncertainty in
the state estimation result. This makes it difficult to adapt the traditional state
estimation approach to distribution networks.
A probabilistic observability assessment is also presented in this chapter
using a similar probabilistic approach. The traditional approach to observability
in distribution networks is limited because even if a network is classified as observ-
able, the state estimation result could be completely decoupled from reality. The
presented method on the other hand determines if the state of a distribution network
can be estimated with a degree of accuracy that is sufficient to evaluate if the true
value of the estimated parameters is within their respective constraints.
This approach has been demonstrated in case studies using real 13-bus and
145-bus feeders. The results show that even if a large amount of uncertainty is pres-
ent in the state estimation result, the proposed approach can provide practical infor-
mation about the network state in a form that is easy to interpret.
18 CHAPTER 1 GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
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systems. Proceedings of the IEEE PAS-62 (7): 972–982.
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closed-loop approach for control of generation and overall protection at Tokke power
plants. International Conference on Large High-Tension Electric Systems, CIGRE,
Paris, France. Paper 32-06.
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cation of the AEP real time load flow project. IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus
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mentation of state estimation techniques in real time control of power systems, lFAC,
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Operation, and Control, 3e. Wiley.
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tice-Hall.
13. Gelb, A. (1974). Applied Optimal Estimation. MIT Press.
14. Crassidis, J.L. and Junkins, J.L. (2004). Optimal Estimation of Dynamic Systems.
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monitoring of electric power systems. Proceedings of 8th PICA Conference, Minneap-
olis, MN, pp. 304–312.
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tion via sensitivity function exchanges. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 32 (1):
442–453.
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system state estimation with reduced interarea communication. IEEE Journal of
Selected Topics in Signal Processing 12 (4): 607–616.
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term forecasting. IEEE Winter Power Meeting, New York. Paper C72 171-2.
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power plant load changes. Proceedings of 8th PICA Conference, Minneapolis, MN, pp.
180–186.
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systems). IEEE Computer Applications in Power 6 (1): 27–32.
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eling. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 17 (3): 834–842.
23. Macedo, F. (2004). Reliability software minimum requirements & best practices. FERC
Technical Conference, July 14. www.slideserve.com/hallie/reliability-software-mini-
mum-requirements-best-practices (accessed 7 November 2020).
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com/content/mktrules/obd/documents/State-Estimator-Standards-Approved-TAC-
050213.doc (accessed 10 November 2020).
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present, and future. Proceedings of the IEEE 93 (11): 1890–1908.
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Proceedings of the IEEE 75 (12): 1623–1644.
27. Debs, A.S. (1988). Modern Power Systems Control and Operation. Springer.
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load flows from a system operators viewpoint. IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus
and Systems PAS-102 (6): 1818–1822.
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29. Ilic, M., Galiana, F., and Fink, L. (1998). Power Systems Restructuring: Engineering
and Economics. Norwell, MA: Kluwer.
30. Frame, J. (2001). Locational marginal pricing. 2001 IEEE Power Engineering Society
Winter Meeting. Conference Proceedings, vol. 1, p. 377.
31. Li, F., Pan, J., and Chao, H. (Apr. 2004). Marginal loss calculation in competitive
electrical energy markets. Proceedings of the 2004 IEEE International Conference
on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies
(DRPT2004). Hong Kong, China, Vol. 1, pp. 205–209.
32. Kirschen, D. and Strbac, G. (2004). Fundamentals of Power System Economics.
New York: Wiley.
33. Adler, R.B. and Fischl, R. (Mar./Apr. 1977). Security constrained economic dispatch
with participation factors based on worst case bus load variations. IEEE Transactions
on Power Apparatus and Systems 96 (2): 347–356.
34. Sanders, C.W. and Monroe, C.A. (Jul./Aug. 1987). An algorithm for real-time security
constrained economic dispatch. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2 (4): 1068–1074.
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Springer.
37. Kundur, P. (1994). Power System Stability and Control. McGraw-Hill.
38. Sauer, P.W. and Pai, M.A. (2006). Power System Dynamics and Stability. Stipes
Publishing L.L.C.
39. Grigsby, L.L. (2012). Power System Stability and Control, 3e. CRC Press.
40. Heydt, G.T. (1986). Computer Analysis Methods for Power Systems. Macmillan
Publishing Company.
41. Crow, M.L. (2009). Computational Methods for Electric Power Systems, 2e.
CRC Press.
42. Momoh, J.A. and Mili, L. (2010). Operation and Control of Electric Energy Processing
Systems. Wiley/IEEE Press.
CHAPTER 2
STATE ESTIMATION IN POWER
SYSTEMS BASED ON A
MATHEMATICAL
PROGRAMMING APPROACH
Eduardo Caro and Araceli Hernández
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
2.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter revisits the state estimation problem in power system and develops a
direct approach of a mathematical programming solution for the most relevant esti-
mators. Traditionally, power system state estimation is tackled by solving the sys-
tem of nonlinear equations corresponding to the first-order necessary optimality
conditions of the estimation problem.
Besides the traditional approach, the estimation problem can be solved
directly, which has a number or advantages such as (i) including inequality con-
straints representing physical hard limits, (ii) taking advantage of currently avail-
able state-of-the-art nonlinear programming solvers, (iii) treating sparsity in an
efficient and implicit manner, etc.
For the interested reader, pioneering state estimation works include [1–6].
A detailed description of state estimation in power system is provided in [7], which
includes an appropriate literature review.
Advances in Electric Power and Energy: Static State Estimation, First Edition.
Edited by Mohamed E. El-Hawary.
© 2021 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.
Published 2021 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
23
24 CHAPTER 2 STATE ESTIMATION IN POWER SYSTEMS
2.2 FORMULATION
The traditional weighted least of squares (WLS) state estimation problem has
the form
m
2
minimize
x
J x = w i h i x − zi (2.1)
i=1
subject to
f x =0 (2.2)
g x ≤0 (2.3)
where x is the n × 1 state variable vector, J(x) the objective function (weighted
quadratic error), h (x) a m × 1 functional vector expressing the measurements as
a function of the state variables, w a m × 1 weighting factor vector, z the m × 1
measurement vector, f ( x ) the p × 1 equality constraint vector mainly enforcing
conditions at transit buses (no generation and no demand), and g (x ) the q × 1
inequality constraint vector enforcing physical limits of the system.
Among the components of vector h (x ), note that active and reactive and
power injections at bus i are computed as
Pi = vi v j Gij cos θi − θ j + Bij sin θi − θ j (2.4)
j Ξ
where Pi and Qi are the active and reactive power injection at bus i, respectively; vi
and θi are the voltage magnitude and angle at bus i, respectively; Gij and Bij are the
real and imaginary part of the bus admittance matrix, respectively; and Ξ is the set
of all buses. Gii and Bii can be computed as indicated in [7].
The active and reactive power flow ij are computed as
Pij = vi v j Gij cos θi − θ j + Bij sin θi − θ j − Gij v2i (2.6)
where Pij and Qij are the active and reactive power flow from bus i to bus j, respec-
tively, and bSij the shunt susceptance of line ij.
As it is customary, measurements are considered to be independent Gaus-
sian-distributed random variables.
Bus 1 Bus 3
Bus 2
P1m, z1 Q1m, z8 v2m, z7 P2m, z2 Q3m, z9
v1m, z6 m, z
P34 5 m, z
Q34
m, z 10
m, z
P14 P32 4
3
Bus 4
1 2 10
1 4 10
2 3 10
3 4 10
bus. Considering bus 4 as the reference bus, the state variable vector x has
the form
T
x = θ1 , θ2 , θ3 , v1 , v2 , v3 , v4
Ten measurements are considered as shown in Figure 2.1: two voltage measure-
ments at bus 1 and 2; two active/reactive power injection measurements at bus
1 and 3; three active power flow measurements at lines 1–4, 3–2, and 3–4; and
one reactive power flow measurement at line 3–4. The standard deviation of
any measurement other than voltage is 0.02, while the standard deviation of voltage
measurements is 0.01. The considered measurement configuration provides a
redundancy ratio of (10 + 2)/7 = 1.71. Note that the measurement set includes
10 actual measurements plus two exact measurements corresponding to active
and reactive power injections at the transit bus.
The state estimation problem for this example has the form
26 CHAPTER 2 STATE ESTIMATION IN POWER SYSTEMS
minimizex
2
J x = w1 v1 v2 B12 sin θ1 − θ2 + v4 B14 sin θ1 − 0 − z1
2
+ w2 v3 v2 B32 sin θ3 − θ2 + v4 B34 sin θ3 − 0 − z2
2
+ w3 v1 v4 B14 sin θ1 − 0 − z3
2
+ w4 v3 v2 B32 sin θ3 − θ2 − z4
2
+ w5 v3 v4 B34 sin θ3 − 0 − z5
2
+ w6 v1 − z6
2
+ w7 v2 − z7
2
+ w8 v1 − v1 B11 − v2 B12 cos θ1 − θ2 − v4 B14 cos θ1 − 0 − z8
2
+ w9 v3 − v3 B33 − v2 B32 cos θ3 − θ2 − v4 B34 cos θ3 − 0 − z9
2
+ w10 − v3 v4 B34 cos θ3 − 0 + v23 B34 − z10
subject to 2 equality constraints for the transit bus and 7 inequality constraints
enforcing physical limits:
v2 v1 B21 sin θ2 − θ1 + v3 B23 sin θ2 − θ3 = 0
v2 − v1 B21 cos θ2 − θ1 − v2 B22 − v3 B23 cos θ2 − θ3 =0
Pmin
1 ≤ v1 v2 B12 sin θ1 − θ2 + v4 B14 sin θ1 − 0 ≤ Pmax
1
Qmin
1 ≤ v1 − v1 B11 − v2 B12 cos θ1 − θ2 − v4 B14 cos θ1 − 0 ≤ Qmax
1
− π ≤ θi ≤ π, i = 1, …, 3
fi x = 0 i = 1, …, p (2.9)
or
H T W z − h x + FT λ = 0 (2.10)
f x =0 (2.11)
where W is a m × m diagonal matrix of the measurement weights wi, F = ∇xf (x) is
the p × n equality constraint Jacobian, and λ is the p × 1 Lagrangian multiplier
vector associated with equality constraints (2.2).
2.3 CLASSICAL STATE ESTIMATION PROCEDURE 27
HT WH FT Δx ν + 1 HT WΔz ν
= (2.12)
F 0 −λ ν+1 −f x ν
∂h1 x ∂h1 x
∂x1 ∂x7
H x =
∂h10 x ∂h10 x
∂x1 ∂x7
∂f1 x ∂f1 x
∂x1 ∂x7
Fx =
∂f2 x ∂f2 x
∂x1 ∂x7
W = Diag 2500, 2500, 2500, 2500, 2500, 10 000, 10 000, 2500, 2500, 2500
The minimum and maximum active/reactive power injections in puMW/puMVar
are Pmax
1 = 3, Pmin
1 = 0 8, Qmax
1 = 3 5, and Qmin
1 = − 3 5. Measurements are gener-
ated by solving the power flow with a height accuracy and then adding independent
Gaussian-distributed errors to the exact values of the measurements. These mea-
surements and the exact values are provided in Tables 2.2–2.4. In these tables,
superscript “true” indicates true value, superscript “m” measurement, and a “ ”
estimated value.
The initial solution considered for state variables is the flat voltage level, and
a convergence tolerance of 10−5 on the largest Δxi is considered. The convergence,
illustrated in Table 2.5, is obtained after four iterations.
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The Project Gutenberg eBook of Meleager
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and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no
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Title: Meleager
A fantasy
Language: English
F.S.A.
Anatomy of Melancholy
(Part I., sect. ii., sub-sect. iv.)
LONDON
MARTIN SECKER
NUMBER FIVE JOHN STREET
ADELPHI
First Published 1916
CONTENTS
PAGE
PROLOGUE 7
PART ONE 15
PART TWO 199
EPIGRAPH 308
PROLOGUE
(By the Editor of the Original MS., the late Edward Cayley, F.S.A.)
In giving the following narrative to the Press, I feel, as its editor, I am
bound to write a short preface of apology or explanation to such of
the public as care to read these pages. But I shall be as brief as
possible.
The manuscript, which is here produced in printed form, came into
my personal possession through the kindness of Sir W—— Y——,
the eminent traveller and mountaineer, who chanced upon it under
the following circumstances. Whilst engaged in some work of
exploration in the Andes, at the height of 12,000 feet or thereabouts
above sea-level, he and his party had to traverse a dry stony ravine.
On their passage upward one of the attendant guides chanced to
espy amongst the loose stones and rubble a plain white metal
cylinder sealed at both ends. Except for a conspicuous dent,
evidently the result of a heavy fall, the cylinder itself appeared
uninjured, and it was immediately brought by the finder to Sir W——,
as the leader of the party. Sir W—— stopped for a moment to
examine this strange treasure-trove, and, though much pressed for
time, was able to loosen the cover and to ascertain that the cylinder
contained a large scroll of fine vellum closely covered with minute
writing. In the fading light, Sir W——, who had many matters of
professional importance to think of, gave only a cursory glance at the
manuscript itself, which he fancied must be connected with some of
the ancient inhabitants of Peru. Without examining the parchment
closely, he thereupon packed away the cylinder in his baggage and
made no further effort to elucidate its nature until his return to Lima.
My friend was here considerably astonished to find that the MS.
which had so strangely fallen into his hands was written, not in some
antique or unknown language and characters, but in neat though
exceedingly small English script, with the sole exception of one short
sentence in Latin—added apparently by another hand and in a
different ink—in which the Latin writer begged the finder of the
cylinder to take the enclosed scroll of vellum to the nearest English
or American consulate. But for this Latin request, which was inserted
at the beginning of the manuscript in a most prominent manner, the
whole was written in fair nervous English, which it became easy to
decipher, so soon as the reader had grown accustomed to the
crabbedness of the writing, that had evidently been produced by an
exiguity of space.
By one of those curious but happy chances which sometimes occur
in life, Sir W—— was still more astonished to discover that the name
of the author was not only familiar to him, but that he actually had
once owned a slight acquaintance with him. More than this, Sir W
——, who is one of my dearest and oldest friends, knew that I had
been intimate with the writer of this parchment, who (as he thought)
had been dead for some years. Sir W—— therefore, though greatly
puzzled by the whole inscrutable occurrence, very wisely made no
further mention of his discovery, but on his return to England brought
the manuscript direct to me at my room in the British Museum. After
a long discussion between us, Sir W—— voluntarily made over all
arrangements in the matter of publishing or suppressing the contents
of the scroll to myself, and indeed, so to speak, washed his hands of
all further responsibility in the matter, which had apparently
somewhat affected his nerves or his spirits. I have only to add, with
regard to the original owner of the MS., that Sir W——, when at
Lima, showed the metal case to various persons employed at the
museum there, and that all these experts unanimously declared that
this object itself could never have been produced by any of the
aboriginal inhabitants of Peru; whilst the metal, a species of
platinum, was, so far as they were aware, unknown on our planet.
And this verdict of the officials at Lima is, I believe, perfectly correct.
As to the authenticity of the MS., I may at once state that the account
contained therein coincides in every particular with the evidence that
was produced at the time of its alleged author's mysterious
disappearance. I have had for many years an intimate acquaintance,
amounting to a cordial friendship, with the writer, A—— B——. I do
not necessarily concur with all that he states later on as to his
exceptional mental gifts; nor do I consider his close self-analysis as
altogether a correct one. Still, I think his own views on his
attainments, his natural genius, his complete failure, and his outlook
on life are sincere. Though highly nervous and sensitive by nature,
and a prey to constant fits of depression, neither I nor any of his
friends, would ever have suspected him of a tendency to suicide. We
were indeed, all of us, fully as surprised as we were grieved to learn
through the newspapers of November ——, 19—, the details of what
we most assuredly at that date considered to have been his own
deliberate act of self-destruction. For there can be no question but
that A—— B—— had made beforehand plans for his contemplated
disappearance; the letter of instruction he wrote to his brother, the
careful packing of his valuables at his lodgings, and the sudden
payment on the morning that he was last seen of certain outstanding
bills clearly point to this surmise. We are however now confronted
since the strange discovery of the manuscript with two theories as to
his end; did A—— B—— really perish on the beach at Dover; or did
he evanish from his own world of men in order to start a new life
under new conditions? His clothing, we know, was found lying on the
bare ground carefully held down by stones and boulders, and in his
pockets were some money and a few personal trifles of value.
Nevertheless, it is just possible he may have changed into some
other garb, and thus disguised have made his escape whither none
could trace him. This second theory is however highly improbable,
seeing that his age was over forty, his temperament on the whole
normal, and his health indifferent; so that I merely mention it here to
show that the suggestion has not escaped my own inquiring mind.
The conclusion however which both the police and his relatives held
was that A—— B—— had in some fit of frenzy or despair plunged
naked into the sea, wherein he had been speedily drowned; for it
was a cold stormy night. It is true the actual body was never
recovered, but professional and amateur alike were agreed on the
point of suicide whilst of unsound mind. That the manuscript is a
literary jest perpetrated in the name of A—— B—— is also most
unlikely, for though he was an author of some talent and repute, his
mere name certainly had not the glamour requisite to draw special
attention to any posthumous publication. At the risk therefore of
being considered credulous, or even crazy, I have come to the
deliberate decision that the whole marvellous story as set forth on
the parchment is essentially true; and that the events described
therein are not the figments of any imagination, sane or insane. If
this is the case (which I do not for one moment doubt), then we
possess an inestimable account of a planet other than our own. On
the other hand, were it a fraud of an elaborate nature, as has been
suggested, we have simply a treatise dealing with a Utopia in the
stars, just one of those sterile semi-descriptive, semi-political
effusions that the speculative human mind has produced from time
to time. The record of Meleager and of its unique Secret, of which
the author claims to know the existence but not the working details,
is either a matter of surpassing interest, or else it is but a literary
trifle, a jejune compound of material borrowed from Plato, Sir
Thomas More, Rabelais, James Harington, Dean Swift, Samuel
Butler, H.G. Wells, and Heaven only knows how many other
inventors in a similar vein, both ancient and modern, English and
foreign. Once more I repeat my full belief in the writer's veracity and
in the substantial truth of all his many adventures. As I write this, I
have lying on my desk before me that same strange metal cylinder,
and that exquisitely prepared roll of vellum; and whenever I take
these objects in my hands I really feel that I am fingering a message
in a tangible form from a friend and fellow-mortal who has passed
hence to another planet.
I have only to add that in editing the MS. I have deemed it expedient
to omit here and there a few passages which might perhaps tend to
prejudice the reader against A—— B—— himself; the fact being
patent to me that the author, after some years of residence in
another and a wholly diverse moral and physical atmosphere, has
somehow imbibed notions and theories that may clash with some of
the recognised conventions and standards of this our world, which
was also once his own. These omissions do not however mar the
general trend of the narrative; and if any authorised persons may
conceive a serious desire to peruse these excerpts, I shall willingly
acquaint them with what is missing from the text.
PART ONE
I
I begin my manuscript in the palace of the Child of the Sun in a
distant world, thus relieving a mind that is apt to grow weary of mere
splendour and adulation by imagining the possibility of
communicating on some future day with those who were not so long
ago my fellow-men and fellow-mortals on the planet I have left, never
to return. Though brightness and beauty are around me in my new
abode, yet a constant longing for the drab unattainable past grips me
with a feverish eagerness, so that I find some small solace in placing
on record from time to time my impressions of a place and a people
whose existence I had never suspected until a few hours before I
was hurried, a humble subject out of the Earth, to dwell as ruler of an
alien sphere. Whether or no I shall ever gain the opportunity of
committing this message to its desired goal I know not; but at the
present moment it suits my fancy and soothes my unquiet brain to
believe in the ultimate feasibility of such an event. So I shall open by
relating with the utmost brevity the earlier and earthly, and therefore
less interesting, portion of my career.
I had already passed by some few years the age of forty, at which
landmark of life, so Count Alfieri discovered long ago, man ceases to
cherish illusions, and seeks to look back upon the irredeemable past
with feelings of self-satisfaction or of regret, as his case may be. My
own reflections after passing this Rubicon of time were anything but
agreeable, when I paused to consider the years that had slipped by
between my period of youth and that of middle age, and had to
confess that all my early ambitions had petered out in nothingness. I
had signally failed in all things; I had plainly proved myself
"too weak to put my shoulder to the wheel
Which Fortune offers all to push or leave."
And yet, despite my laziness, my lack of initiative, my sacrifices to
dull Convention, my timidity and my vacillation, I could not help
harbouring a dull dim fury of resentment against Fate itself. I realised
that I was the owner of high and original genius, yet this had omitted
to imprint its proper mark in the world; and further, I argued that it
was not wholly through my own fault that my latent virtues had never
developed. The finest and most useful piece of machinery remains
valueless and inert unless there be a skilled workman to set its
mechanism in motion, to oil its cogs, and generally to supervise its
action. So in my own case, the mental mechanism was all there
ready to perform and needing but the touch of a sympathetic human
hand to inspire its dormant possibilities. Some of the foremost
characters in history have owed their fame and their success to the
judicious but unappreciated help of persons of an inferior calibre,
whose very names are often unknown to posterity; then why could
not I have been permitted the service of some exterior force, some
understanding coadjutor, to awaken the gigantic strength that was
slumbering in myself?
Thus in my case a boyhood full of promise, yet a boyhood ever
repressed and misunderstood, ripened into an early manhood of
diffidence and irresolution. The golden years glided by unprofitably,
until at length they reached the grand climacteric, when I found
myself straying in a barren and deserted portion of the plain of life. A
mental and physical weariness began to enfold me; the sense of
failure at times was certainly keen and cutting as a razor, still I
contrived by various devices to blunt its edge. I had indeed obtained
some slight distinction in the sphere of literature, so that I was fain to
feed my hungry disappointed soul with such crumbs or stale food of
gratulation as fell to me from the small circle of those who admired
my works, concerning which I myself can honestly say that I neither
professed nor felt the smallest pride. A few trifles from my pen may
possibly live in the general literature of Britain, mostly in verse, for
poetry is often less perishable than prose in such instances as mine.
Nevertheless, I recognised myself as a partial failure in the domain
of letters, as I was admittedly a complete failure in the departments
of politics, of thought, of influence, of philosophy.
Naturally, with such bitter matter for reflection, my equanimity was
liable to serious disturbance what time the sharp edge of this
haunting sense of a life's bankruptcy pricked my all-too-sensitive
skin. At such periods long-drawn fits of depression would invade me.
Though at first these would dissolve and would often leave a marked
flow of gaiety and hopefulness behind them, yet such attacks grew
stronger and more frequent, whilst the subsequent recovery was less
ecstatic in its nature. It was during one of these temporary
obsessions of brooding care that I encountered the one and only
adventure of my life, the adventure indeed that, in one aspect,
terminated it, as I shall presently relate. For I have only written thus
much concerning my interior state of mind and my physical health to
impress on the reader that, apparent failure as I was and void of all
worldly success, yet I still possessed the clear inner consciousness
of mental powers that far exceeded those of all my more fortunate
acquaintances, and were perhaps equalled amongst very few
contemporary persons whatsoever. My call to action came at last;
the master hand at the eleventh hour put the rusty machinery of my
unique mind in motion; and I have answered to that call, and am now
employing for a worthy purpose those superior talents that, not
altogether by reason of my own laches, had so long lain idle.
One November evening in the year 19—, whilst under the shadow of
one of my recurring moods of melancholy, I made my way to the
Café Royale in Regent Street, where I sat down and ordered a glass
of absinthe. And here I may as well state that I am no drunkard, and
that I have never sought to dispel my fits of depression by the aid of
the wine-cup. Occasionally, however, I used to drink a glass of
absinthe, as an excuse for visiting this foreign tavern, this latter-day
Petty France in London, whose alien quality always tended to reduce
my misery, for I found relaxation in the gruff Continental voices of the
guests, in the sight and scent of the foreign liquors, in the garish
Parisian decorations of the long low room, and in the unceasing
chink of the dominoes on the marble-topped tables. I had already
poured the ice-cold water upon the thin tablet of sugar reposing on
the silver sifter that I had placed across the goblet, and was watching
the clouded liquor below assume the yellow and green tints of the
peridot, when I noticed a stranger enter the doorway, glance quickly
round at the noisy crowd assembled, and then seat himself
deliberately in the vacant chair opposite to me. With a languid
interest I observed the new-comer, trying to recall his face, which
somehow seemed vaguely familiar to me. As this personage is to
figure presently as my liberator, my mentor, my particular deus ex
machinâ, I may as well describe him here to the best of my ability.
He was short, and a little inclined to stoutness; he was apparently
about my own age, and was fashionably but quietly dressed; he was
also obviously not an Englishman. His complexion was swarthy,
even hinting at some possible admixture of Oriental blood, but his
features were small, regular and far from unpleasing. His dark hair
and moustache were grizzled; he had intelligent brown eyes and
regular teeth; his voice showed an agreeable intonation as he
ordered François to bring him some coffee. Having given his order,
the stranger looked fixedly at me for a moment, the while stroking his
chin with a delicate well-kept hand. Suddenly he addressed me, only
to offer me the evening paper which he had brought with him. I
thanked him, and seeing him thus anxious to converse, I made some
commonplace remark on the badness of the weather. He replied with
alacrity, and by the time the waiter had returned with his coffee the
stranger and I were chatting affably. He spoke excellent English, but
with an accent that caused me to speculate on his possible
nationality. After we had indulged thus in small talk for ten minutes or
more, my neighbour, assuming a graceful hesitation of manner,
inquired of me whether my name were not A—— B——. Greatly
surprised, I assented; whereupon the foreigner, with a well-bred
apology for what he called his liberty of attitude towards me, stated
that he was a sincere admirer of my books, and then proceeded to
allude to them in a manner which showed plainly enough that at
least he had read them. He praised my work warmly, complimented
me on the subjects I had chosen for research, on my lucid style and
on other points. Now, there are few persons who are not susceptible
to praise or flattery, and I am no exception to the general rule,
provided only that the praise (or flattery) be applied with a delicate
brush and not with a trowel. The discriminating approval therefore of
this distinguished-looking foreigner acted like a sedative to my jarred
nerves, so that the cloud of depression hanging over my head began
rapidly to disperse. We talked and argued with animation over my
books and their themes, with which my unknown companion seemed
to possess a most intimate acquaintance. Time raced rapidly during
this congenial duologue, the clock above the bar denoting the flight
of a full hour before my comrade broached the matter of his own
identity, which could scarcely in politeness be withheld much longer.
Taking a leather case from his breast-pocket, he produced a visiting
card, which he handed to me, explaining to me at the same moment
that he was of Italian parentage though born in the Argentine, where
he followed the occupation of a merchant in connection with a large
English commercial house holding concessions in Peru and Bolivia.
The card bore the name "Signor Arrigo d'Aragno," and an address in
Buenos Aires. Then, glancing hastily at the clock, he made some
remark about an important business appointment and expressed
deep concern at this abrupt ending of our agreeable conversation.
With some slight hesitation however he ventured to ask whether I
would not give him the extreme pleasure of my company at dinner
that night, provided I would excuse such an invitation from a
complete stranger after so short an acquaintance. I happened to be
disengaged that day, with the uninviting prospect of a solitary
evening at my club before me; and my alacrity in accepting his
hospitality caused obvious satisfaction to Signor d'Aragno, who
named one of the large London hotels for our trysting-place. We
shook hands cordially, and separated with a warm a rivederla.
Directing his eyes full upon my face with a concentrated stare that
held my attention fixed and unwavering, d'Aragno started, and his
harangue proceeded with scarcely a break for four hours, of which
here I can only inscribe a few disjointed fragments. "You progressive
and enlightened peoples of the important planet known as the Earth
have in your own estimation acquired an immense store of
knowledge, not only of things terrestrial but also of the entire scheme
celestial. Your astronomers talk glibly of the presence of various
metals in the Moon, of the luminous rings of Saturn, of artificial
canals in Mars; you reckon with accuracy on the times and seasons
of the wandering comets which you christen by the names of their
discoverers—and yet, and yet you have not learnt our secret, The
Secret!...
"On your aerial charts there is marked a tiny planet belonging to our
solar system which your scientists, following an absurd method of
nomenclature from the venue of classical mythology, have dubbed
Meleager. Being small, it is held of no account by your star-gazing
wiseacres, whilst the average layman of intelligence has probably
never so much as heard its name. Is not that so? Have you yourself
any knowledge of its existence? (I shook my head.) Now let me tell
you that Meleager is an Earth in miniature; its inhabitants, its natural
features, its vegetation, its fauna have all developed under identical
conditions in the past, so that, were any traveller from Herthus to be
unexpectedly translated thither, he would almost certainly imagine he
had only found his way to some hitherto unexplored subtropical
region of his own Earth. I am a native of Meleager, and I am
moreover one of its small band of citizens who possess its secret,
which has been handed down from its original inventors to their
successors through countless centuries of time. How, when and by
whom The Secret came into existence I know not; and did I know, I
should not inform you; but this much I am empowered to say; there
is intercommunication of long standing between our small planet and
your larger one; or rather, to use exact language, a limited knot of
persons in Meleager own the power of visiting your Earth from time
to time for certain purposes, one of which I shall presently disclose to
you, as it concerns intimately our meeting and conversation this
night. It is now five years and more since I have been dwelling in an
alien world, making a careful scrutiny in connection with the mission
that has been entrusted me by the innermost circle of the ruling
caste which alone controls the polity of Meleager. I am, as it were, an
ambassador to the Earth, but one whose credentials have never
been presented, who has no staff of legation, no chancellery, and
whose position is one-sided, for it is unknown to, and
unacknowledged by, the countries to which he has been sent. I have
been commanded to inquire into and report upon many terrestrial
matters of concern to us, but my leading task is being brought to its
termination to-day....
"My supreme duty is to choose an earth-born King for our planet.
Our constitution, which is the logical outcome of the most deliberate
and far-seeing policy for many generations, requires the presence in
our midst of a sovereign drawn from another sphere, and that sphere
is of necessity the Earth, for we in Meleager hold no communication
with any other planet in Cosmos. At intervals, as expediency or
necessity may dictate, a new king has to be sought and found by the
Meleagrian envoy on the Earth, whose task presents, as you may
suppose, extreme, well-nigh insuperable difficulties. I am tied down
by certain stringent rules, and to those rules I must strictly adhere.
We demand a man of intelligence, a man of good birth and breeding,
one of fine presence, and last of all an individual of a fair complexion
and with blue eyes. This final condition may strike you as absurd, but
then the Meleagrians are a dark race with dark skins and dark eyes
and hair, as you may perceive in my own person; and in their fixed
opinion their extraneous ruler must be the scion of an immortal
stock, a member of the family of the Sun, who alone is worshipped in
Meleager. Our priests by the aid of cunning devices and mystical
potions, as also by means of the waters of a certain Fountain of
Rejuvenation, whose exact locale is only known to our Arch-priest
and a few chosen colleagues, can improve both mentally and bodily