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Secdocument 7223
Graham Dwyer
Making Sense of Natural Disasters
Graham Dwyer
Making Sense of
Natural Disasters
The Learning Vacuum of Bushfire Public Inquiries
Graham Dwyer
Centre for Social Impact
Swinburne University of Technology
Melbourne, VIC, Australia
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer
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Foreword
Disasters affecting humans are not new but they are occurring more often.
This may be to do with the size of the population of homo sapiens upon the
planet but it may be something to do with the planet itself. In a world of
climate change and a wide acceptance that human actions and reactions
contribute to the Anthropocene, disasters in the twenty-first century
threaten more human life and living standards in more and more places.
Given this, what might we learn about how to organize against them?
Graham Dwyer offers in this book a way forward to enrich our under-
standing. Dwyer has concentrated upon emergency management practi-
tioners and those communities facing extreme events, especially bush fires.
His approach is based upon research in the state of Victoria in Australia
but is germane to our understanding of disaster management in many
nations, in both hemispheres. He shows that the organization of human-
ity, both in the face of such disasters and the planning that goes into
preparation for them, relies upon a process of ‘sense-making’ whereby
extraordinary conditions are fitted into everyday, ordinary frameworks
that are meant to be formal, robust, and pre-planned to deal with such
extreme conditions. Dwyer points out, however, that emotions are height-
ened in such extraordinary circumstances and formal, linear systems rarely
conceptualise this element as a matter of great consequence. Indeed, the
deliberations of Public Inquiries seek to remove emotion from their think-
ing almost altogether and to concentrate upon rationality and the alloca-
tion of blame within a legal framework of cause and effect. By ignoring the
role of human emotions in extreme circumstances, says Dwyer, Public
Inquiries offer little that is new to human understanding. Dwyer’s
v
vi FOREWORD
provocative research suggests that Public Inquiries must consider the role
of ‘emotion’ within their very ‘rational’ frameworks. Without this new
dimension, humanity faces a ‘learning vacuum’ with mortal consequences
for many.
Graham Dwyer’s book, for this reader, relates back to a tension deep
within human history, yet is in order to understand our future upon a
changing planet. In ancient Greece, the Apollonian strand of thinking
emphasised rationality and the power of thought. Apollo was the sun God
and appealed to logic, prudence and illumination. On the other hand,
Dionysus was the God of wine and dance and is associated with chaos and
irrationality. His worship appealed to those who wished to celebrate the
emotions and instincts. Some have seen this quarrel acting at the level of
the human brain where the Apollonian resides in the higher cortex,
whereas the Dionysian is to be found in the ‘reptilian’ and ‘limbic’ brains
still possessed by the human anatomy. This tension in worldviews seems
very relevant to this reader in understanding Making Sense of Natural
Disasters. Dwyer wishes for immediately experienced ‘emotions’ to be
admitted into Public Inquiries despite their legal focus being upon long,
drawn out cerebration, seeking allocation and apportionment of responsi-
bility. It is this other, fully embodied worldview of those facing extreme
danger on the front line that he offers. He leads the reader to see the value
in our understanding of a world in which, one might argue, the pre-
eminence of legal-rational bureaucracy has created a runaway monster of
climate change ready to devour the world as we humans know it. And in
such threats to life and limb is it any surprise that sense-making might well
include the spontaneous reaction of our own viscera?
Making Sense of Natural Disasters is thus a book for today, not only for
the women and men who face the consequences of a hotter, drier world
almost every day but for us all. Emergency workers protect us, of course,
but in order to do so they must protect themselves, using not only plan-
ning in the seminar room but ‘out there’ with a mind that is fully embod-
ied in the face of terrifying conditions. Graham Dwyer has done these
emergency workers a great service in rendering the world more complex
yet more understandable, as well as those who plan for disasters, those
who seek to control events afterwards, and all of us who are beholden to
them. His readers will appreciate his subtlety and erudition in so doing.
vii
viii PREFACE
The scene that confronted me when I first saw Strathewen was—it was inde-
scribable. There literally wasn’t anything that wasn’t burnt, that wasn’t
destroyed … We came over the hill and the young chap that was driving for
me, he saw his parents’ house fully enveloped in flames … it was very diffi-
cult. I got further up Chads Creek Road … and I met a resident on the road
and he said, ‘There’s a body up there’. I went up and there was a chap I had
known for 40 years dead in the middle of the oval. (Mr. David McGahy,
captain of the Arthurs Creek CFA brigade, describing his observation when
PREFACE ix
References
Griffiths, T. (2010). An unnatural disaster: Remembering and forgetting bushfire.
History Australia, 6(2), 35.1–35.2.
Parliament of Victoria. (1939). Report of the royal commission to inquire into the
causes of and measures taken to prevent the bush fires of January, 1939, and to
protect life and property, and the measures taken to prevent bush fires in Victoria
and protect life and property in the event of future bush fires 1939, Parliamentary
paper (Victoria. Parliament); T. Rider, Acting Government Printer, Melbourne.
Acknowledgements
xi
xii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
1 Introduction 1
1.1 What Happens After Disasters? 5
1.2 Structure of the Book 8
References 10
2 Learning as Sensemaking 15
2.1 What Is Sensemaking? 18
2.2 Equivocality and Sensemaking 23
2.3 What Happens After Disaster and Public Inquiry
Sensemaking? 28
2.4 Sensemaking and Emotion 30
2.5 Conclusion 33
References 34
xiii
xiv CONTENTS
References117
Index133
List of Figures
xv
List of Tables
xvii
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
Recent history has provoked a high level of concern over the earth’s natu-
ral environment and the extreme events, grand challenges and wicked
problems surrounding natural hazards (Dwyer, 2021b; Gephart, 2021).
Higher temperatures, intensifying wind speeds and rain deficits are being
attributed to climate change, and are subsequently prompting floods,
droughts and bushfires which are increasingly endangering the lives of
but a low probability of occurring, meaning that they interact with actors,
systems, processes, procedures and routines in the organizational environ-
ment in a manner that is often rapid and unpredictable (Landgraf &
Officer, 2016; Thatcher et al., 2015; Kruke & Olsen, 2005; Weick, 1988,
1999). Such scenarios create a high cognitive load (Sweller, 1994), as
individuals’ ability to understand and manage what is occurring begins to
diminish in the face of escalating danger. Individuals move between emo-
tional states such as anxiety, panic, fear and stress as they seek to take
meaningful action to ameliorate the emerging danger and avoid significant
losses and damage to communities. Such disasters also have an emotional
impact on individuals who work in emergency management organizations,
who may experience feelings of regret, shame and sadness after these
events because of a perception created by media commentaries and public
inquiries that their actions were unable to ameliorate the harmful effects
of disaster (Dwyer, 2021a; Dwyer et al., 2021). Risk management and
capacity-building focused on integrating climate change into hazard miti-
gation planning offer the potential to ameliorate the harmful effects of
natural disasters (Stults, 2017; Buergelt & Paton, 2014). However, this
book shows that there are challenges with achieving an integrated approach
to hazard mitigation through deliberative forums such as public inquiries.
I show that, despite the fact that they span 80 years of learning and signifi-
cant innovation in Victoria, public inquiries as a sensemaking device have
given rise to a learning vacuum, insofar as there is little new that emerges
from their deliberation.
The focus of this book is the way in which emergency management
organizations and the organizational actors that comprise them make
sense of and learn from the paradoxes, predicaments and problems which
arise from disasters. I do so by examining four case studies of bushfires and
the public inquiries that were held after them in the state of Victoria,
Australia. Its unique combination of landscape, climate and vegetation
makes Victoria one of the most fire-prone areas in the world. Consequently,
and not surprisingly, Victoria has had a long history of bushfires (Griffiths,
2010). Four such bushfires continue to live in the collective memory of
Victorians and are the focus of my study: the Black Friday fires of 1939;
the Ash Wednesday fires of 1983; the Black Saturday fires of 2009; and the
Black Summer fires of 2019. In each case, the organizations responsible
for managing these fires faced surprising, overwhelming and novel situa-
tions that, despite their experience with bushfires, were difficult to manage
4 G. DWYER
and gave rise to widespread damages and losses – leading to close examina-
tion by subsequent public inquiries.
This book reflects on the ways that emergency management organiza-
tions understood and acted following these bushfire disasters. We know
from the existing literature that such sensemaking occurs as individuals
seek to understand a situation that is rapidly and unpredictably unfolding
(Dwyer, 2021b). Often, because of the nature of a disaster, this initial
attempt at understanding fails, as Weick (1993) famously showed in the
rapid onset of wildfire at Mann Gulch in 1939. This had fateful conse-
quences as firefighters failed to make sense of what was happening. A long
list of other studies has shown how problems with sensemaking and the
failure to generate plausible meanings about what may be unfolding can
lead to or exacerbate disasters (Brown, 2000, 2004; Gephart, 1984, 1993,
2007; Turner, 1976; Vaughan, 2006; Weick, 1990, 1993, 2010).
We also know that, in order to make sense of what happened during a
disaster, and how and why it occurred, governments will usually commis-
sion a public inquiry (e.g. see Gephart, 1984, 1993; Gephart et al., 1990;
Elliot & McGuiness, 2002; Lalonde, 2007). Studies of such inquiries have
shown that they often identify how people’s behaviour in emergency situ-
ations is frequently a contributing factor to the disaster – because they
failed to make sense of it at the time (Leveson et al., 2009; Perrow, 1981,
1983; Vaughan, 1990, 2006). They also show that the inquiry itself
involves a retrospective form of sensemaking around what happened dur-
ing the disaster (Boudes & Laroche, 2009; Colville et al., 2013; Brown &
Jones, 2000; Brown, 2000, 2004, 2005; Gephart, 1984, 1993, 1997).
This has been no different in a Victorian context, where public inquiries
have been used to make sense of bushfires since 1939 (Dwyer & Hardy,
2016; Dwyer et al., 2021).
There is, then, a rich body of literature about sensemaking, both during
a disaster and afterward when an inquiry takes place. However, there is less
work on learning and how it occurs. We know little in terms of how the
individuals, groups and organizations charged with responding to the
public inquiries make sense of their recommendations after commissioners
have concluded their deliberations (Dwyer, 2021a). Moreover, recent
work has even called for new ways of conducting public review processes
which seek to foster new cultures of learning within emergency manage-
ment organizations (Dwyer, 2021a; Dwyer et al., 2021). This, then, is a
key focus of this book: How should public review processes be conducted
after major bushfires? By exploring this question, I provide an evidence
1 INTRODUCTION 5
Note
1. The methods, findings and analysis pertaining to Chaps. 3 and 4 have been
updated from the author’s previously published work, which has been
appropriately referenced.
10 G. DWYER
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14 G. DWYER
Learning as Sensemaking
In this chapter, I review the sensemaking literature and show how it plays
an important role in learning. Scholars agree that sensemaking is a well-
established theory or perspective that has had a significant influence on
organizations and the way in which they make meaning within their envi-
ronment (Colville et al., 2016; Holt & Cornelissen, 2014; Sandberg &
Tsoukas, 2015). In general, sensemaking has mainly been associated with
research that is “interpretive, social-constructionist, processual and
that sensemaking (or its absence) is much more potent and visible in non-
sensible environments such as crises and disasters, where inconsistent or
conflicting cues give rise to novelty and equivocality for individuals (Weick,
1993). In particular, studies show that disasters are often characterized by
“dynamic complexity” (Colville et al., 2013: 1201). In disaster situations,
scholars have observed that “the sense of what is occurring and the means
to rebuild that sense collapse together” (Weick, 1993: 634).
Given that disasters often result in significant damage and losses, gov-
ernments will usually establish public inquiries to make sense of them
(Stark, 2019a, 2019b). Public inquiries make sense of disasters through
ceremonies and rituals, including evidence hearings, from which indepen-
dent appointees of government construct an authoritative account of find-
ings and recommendations (Dwyer & Hardy, 2016; Gephart, 1984). Such
accounts are often expected to prompt changes within organizations
(Dwyer et al., 2021a). Hence, an important point of interest of this book
is what happens after such inquiries, and whether (as well as how) they
prompt learning.
We know little of the ways in which emergency management organiza-
tions make sense of public inquiry recommendations and findings. The
spur to sensemaking is the extent to which bushfires cause significant dam-
ages and losses to communities, and how they create complex and danger-
ous work environments for individuals who work in emergency
management organizations. After enduring such harrowing experiences,
emergency management practitioners are often required to recount their
traumas at public inquiry hearings, meaning that emotions may play an
important role (Dwyer, 2021a). We therefore need to know more about
the emotions that arise from such experiences (Dwyer et al., 2021b) and
their effects (Maitlis et al., 2013).
The remainder of this chapter elaborates on sensemaking as a concept –
a cluster of characteristics – and shows how it arises from equivocality, with
a particular focus on disasters. I then focus on the ways in which public
inquiries have made sense of such disasters. This is important as a way of
bringing attention to the way public review processes could be conducted
in a more meaningful way in the future and give rise to learning in emer-
gency management organizations. By examining the sensemaking litera-
ture with an emphasis on crises and disaster studies, I provide an insight
into the way that meaning is made by emergency management actors and
the organizations they work in. I then develop my areas of interest that
pertain to what happens afterward: How does sensemaking occur in
18 G. DWYER
• it is retrospective, and
• it is shaped by identity construction, founded on the premise that
people construct cognitive schemes that are built up over time from
lived experience (Gioia & Thomas, 1996; Helms-Mills, 2002;
Weick, 1995).
(Currie & Brown, 2003; Schwandt, 2005). Sensemaking and its key char-
acteristics are often used in organizations to provide plausible explanations
about why certain cues are framed and used to justify learning (Colville
et al., 2014; Crossan et al., 1999; Weick, 1995). In this way, sensemaking
has been used to show how people seek to learn and implement change
(Bean & Hamilton, 2006; Brown & Humphreys, 2003; Turner, 1976),
while also showing how strategy creation, collective cognition, decision-
making and knowledge creation unfold in different contexts. These prop-
erties give people a basis “to accept the diversity and mutation of the
world…so that this changing world shall not become meaningless”
(Fuentes, 1990: 49–50). This is particularly relevant for scholars seeking
to build more prospective sensemaking theory in the kinds of turbulent
environments in which emergency management organizations operate.
Scholars have suggested that sensemaking gives rise to sensegiving,
which is the process of attempting to influence the sensemaking and mean-
ing construction of others towards a preferred redefinition of a “new orga-
nizational reality” (Gioia & Chittipeddi, 1991: 443). Sensegiving is also
an interpretive process (Bartunek et al., 1999; Gioia & Chittipeddi, 1991)
in which individuals – possibly from different hierarchical levels of the
organization – influence each other through persuasive or evocative lan-
guage choices (Dunford & Jones, 2000). Scholars have shown that sense-
giving is used by organizational leaders (Bartunek et al., 1999; Corley &
Gioia, 2004; Gioia & Chittipeddi, 1991), middle managers (Balogun,
2003) and other specialists and/or employees in organizations (Maitlis,
2005). Moreover, sensegiving has been shown to influence the way in
which sensemaking (Maitlis, 2005) occurs, as individuals, usually manag-
ers, disseminate new understanding to individuals at lower levels of the
organizational hierarchy – information that ultimately shapes how they
understand themselves, their own work and that of others, as well as their
perceptions of emergency phenomena in their environment (Gioia &
Chittipeddi, 1991).
Disasters often have their origins in human error and entrenched habits,
routines and patterns; these may give rise to the disaster in the first place
and/or conspire to constrain people’s ability to engage in meaningful sen-
semaking during the disaster (Maitlis & Sonenshein, 2010; Weick, 1988,
1990), as individuals fail to observe cues and generate plausible meanings
about what may be unfolding (Brown, 2000, 2004; Gephart, 1984, 1993;
Turner, 1976; Weick, 1993, 2010). For example, Perrow (1967, 1981:
18), using the example of an accident at a nuclear power plant, shows how
centralized authority stifles people’s ability to pick up on cues and enact
sensemaking behaviours that may avert a crisis. Weick’s (1990) case study
of a collision between two aircraft at Tenerife Airport in 1977 shows how
interruptions to routine generate false hypotheses about situations, which
may create a disaster as people fail to make sense of what is happening
(Termeer, 2009; Termeer & van den Brink, 2013; Weick, 1990). In the
case of the NASA space shuttle Columbia, Vaughan (2006) shows that an
absence of sensemaking can result in errors and misconduct, with disas-
trous consequences.
The disaster sensemaking literature has shown that the unpredictable
and rapidly changing conditions that occur during disasters affect people’s
ability to frame events, bracket cues and develop plausible accounts as
events unfold (Dwyer, 2021b; Howitt & Leonard, 2009; Weick, 2010).
Sensemaking is critical during disasters, but can be difficult to enact. This
is a particularly acute challenge for emergency management organizations
responsible for managing disasters (de Rond, 2017; Quarantelli, 1988),
when the result can be large numbers of fatalities and high levels of
destruction, often resulting in a review process conducted by either the
organization itself or the government through a public inquiry (Dwyer
et al., 2021).
(Weick and Sutcliffe, 2003: 73). This arises when organizational actors
(and/or processes) remain blind to incompetencies and inefficiencies, giv-
ing rise to inadequate performance that can harm the organization and its
stakeholders (Argyris, 1993; Argyris & Schön, 1996).
This research suggests that hierarchy may have played a role in contribut-
ing to the Columbia disaster. But what part did it play afterward, as orga-
nizations sought to respond to the lessons learned from the disaster? What
emotions surfaced as different actors were called before the inquiry to
explain what happened and why? Did the findings give rise to organiza-
tional change that addressed the issues raised by the inquiry?
We still know relatively little about what happens within organizations
after public inquiries have concluded their work and made their findings
known. Do emergency management organizations ever actually make
sense of and interpret the recommendations from public inquiries and
does this enable them to ameliorate the future effects of disasters? We
know that public inquiries can prompt managers to implement change in
emergency management organizations (Dwyer et al., 2021a; Stark, 2020),
though others have claimed that the ritualized and political aspects of pub-
lic inquiries inhibit learning (Buchanan, 2011) and have led to a politiciza-
tion of public review processes. This is problematic because emergency
management organizations have become preoccupied with accountability,
30 G. DWYER
The pioneers first made salt there in 1788. This was several
years before the Genesee road was cut through the woods. One of
these men, a Mr. Danforth, whose name a suburb of Syracuse now
bears, used to put his coat on his head for a cushion and on that
carry out a large kettle to the springs. He would put a pole across
crotched sticks, hang up the kettle, and go to work to make salt.
When he had made enough for the time he would hide his kettle in
the bushes and bring home his salt. By and by so many hundreds of
bushels were made by the settlers that the government of the state
framed laws to regulate the making and selling of the salt, and as
time went on a town arose and grew into a city. Many years later
rock salt was found deep down under the surface farther west, and
since that discovery the business of Syracuse has become more and
more varied in character.
The history of the state of New York shows well how the New
World was settled along the whole Atlantic coast. The white men
from Europe found first Manhattan island and the harbor. Then they
followed the lead of a river and made a settlement that was to be
Albany. Still they let a river guide them, this time the Mohawk, and it
led them westward. They pushed their boats up the stream, and on
land they widened the trails of the red men. Near its head the
Mohawk valley led out into the wide, rich plains south and east of
lake Ontario. Soon there were so many people that a good road
became necessary. When the good road was made it brought more
people, and thus the foundations of the Empire State were laid.
CHAPTER III
ORISKANY, A BATTLE OF THE REVOLUTION