JADC - Coprimido

Worldwide Market Forecast
2022-2041

2022-2041
March 2022
Japan Aircraft Development Corporation

2022-2041
2022-2041
Preface
The aircraft industry is knowledge intensive and has a great ripple effect on industries, making it
effective in advancing the structure of industry as a whole. Accordingly, in Japan, which aims to
become a scientific powerhouse, many efforts have been made for the development and advancement
of the aircraft industry as an essential industry.
It is believed that ongoing information collection and analysis of the world’s commercial aircraft
markets are vital to the further development of Japan’s aircraft industry. Therefore, Japan Aircraft
Development Corporation (JADC) collects and investigates information on the commercial aircraft
markets of the world, including air transportation, aircraft, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers,
forecasting demand for air passengers, air cargo, and aircraft, based on the analysis.
This document, which summarizes our forecasts, is intended to be provided to all parties concerned
as well as to the public through our website (http://www.jadc.jp/en/).
Since 2020, the world has been in disruption caused by the COVID-19 and been forced to fight
against it with no preventive medicine or a cure. And the countries have been striving to prevent and
control infection by severely restricting the movement of people. As a result, demand for both air
passenger transportation and aircraft dropped significantly, causing both airlines and aircraft
manufacturers to face a painful struggle.
However, since the beginning of 2021, the long-awaited vaccine has been put into practical use and
vaccination has been promoted widely, and with the spread of therapeutic drugs in sight in 2022, and
air transportation also has begun to recover in the second half of 2021, particularly on domestic routes.
Looking back in history, airlines around the world have been thrown into disruption and suffered
losses due to terrorism, diseases, and so on in the past. But each time they faced such difficulties, air
transportation demand has always recovered in a curve that converges asymptotically to the long-term
forecast growth curve made before the disruption occurred within several years of the elimination of
the cause.
In this document, in the short term, the progression of recovery in transportation demand is
estimated based on the progress of vaccination and actual recovery in transportation demand. And in
the medium to long term, the transportation demand is forecasted based on an analysis of actual data
for the past 20 years, with new data such as GDP forecasts that include not only the impact of COVID-
19, but also the effects of the vaccine.
March 2022
YGR-5127
2022-2041
2022-2041
Table of Contents
1. Overview ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 1
2. Introduction ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 5
3. Summary of the Airline Industry ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 7
3.3 Until COVID-19 Calms Down ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 20
3.4 After COVID-19 Calms Down ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 29
4. Passenger Aircraft Demand Forecast ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 33
5. Air Passenger Demand Forecast ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 59
6. Factors Related to Air Transportation ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 89
7. Freighter Aircraft Demand Forecast ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 109
8. Air Cargo Traffic Forecast ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 117
9. Regional Overview ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 121
10. Airplane Sales Forecast ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 165
11. Aero Engine Sales Forecast ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 171
12. Methodology ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 173
Appendix A Definition of Airplane Segments ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 175

Appendix B Definition of Aero Engine Segments ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 176
Appendix C Air Passenger Traffic ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 177
Appendix D Air Cargo Traffic ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 178
Appendix E Airplane Demand ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 179
Appendix F Evaluation of Secondary Demand ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 181
Appendix G Trends in Cargo Transportation Result of Major Airlines ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 182
Glossary of Terms ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 185

Abbreviations ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 186
Reference Materials ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 188
The content pertaining to the impact of COVID-19 is mainly explained in sections 3.3
and 3.4.
2022-2041
2022-2041
1. Overview
 Long-term forecasts for the demand in the commercial aircraft market provide
useful information for market risk assessment and examination, medium- to long-
term business planning, and product strategy development, to be carried out in
the course of conducting commercial aircraft business. JADC forecasted demand
for air passengers, air cargo, aircraft (passenger jets, passenger turboprops, and
cargo jets), and aircraft engines from 2022 to 2041, based on our analysis of the
data for the past 20 years.
 The COVID-19 pandemic brought serious damage to the world economy including
the air transportation sector. This impact is expected to be gradually reduced over
the next several years. Although airlines around the world have been thrown into
disruption due to terrorism, diseases, and so on in the past, air transportation
demand recovered, within several years of the elimination of the cause,
asymptotically approached and converged to the long-term forecast growth curve
drawn before the disruption occurred. In this forecast, the impact of the COVID-
19 pandemic on air transportation and aircraft demand has been estimated in the
“With” and “Post” COVID-19 period. (Related Part: 3.3 to 3.4)
 Although there was no preventive medicine or cure for COVID-19 in 2020,

vaccines have been put to practical use and widely administered in 2021, and it is
also expected that cures will be widely used in 2022. Amid such a situation, the
recovery of RPK, mainly of domestic flights, has been proceeding, and some
airlines had already moved into the black by Q4 2021 in regions which recovered
early.
 Short-term projection for RPK: In 2022, the first year of initial recovery, the RPK
will be recovered to around 70% with respect to the 2019 level, and the initial
recovery is expected to complete in 2023 when it reaches over 95%. Many airlines
will move back into the black by 2023, and although their cumulative debts will
remain, planes already ordered will be received, and orders for new planes are
expected to be active. (Related Part: Chapter 3)
 Long-term projections for GDP&RPK: In response to progress in vaccination,

GDP forecasts released by major organizations have been changed to those that
show an earlier recovery compared with those around 2020. Long-term forecasts
for RPK based on GDP, etc., predict recovery about 0.3-0.1 years behind the
forecasts before COVID-19. (Related Part: Chapter 5)
1
2022-2041
 Accordingly, the forecast for the number of deliveries of passenger planes for the
next 20 years (2022 to 2041) has recovered to almost the same level as the level
forecast before COVID-19 as well. (Related Part: Chapter 4)
 Although it cannot be denied that infections caused by new mutant viruses

following Omicron variants will occur and spread in the future, a single outbreak
of large-scale infection is not expected to have a halting effect on the recovery of
social activity for more than one quarter. In 2024, the air transportation sector is
expected to recover to the 2019 level.
 In response to this, it is expected that CO2 emissions caused by air transportation

will reach the 2019 level as well, and concurrently, efforts to reduce CO2 emissions
and their impact will be in full swing. (Related Part: Chapter 5)
2019 actual 2021 actual 2041 forecast Growth Rate Sales (2019 US$billion)
World Economic Growrh (GDP) 2.64%p.a. *2041
2.82%p.a. *2241
9
Passenger Demand (RPK ：×10 passenger km) 8,486 3,498 ＊I 20,025 4.0%p.a. *2041
Passenger Jet Airplane Fleet 24,015 ＊ 24,055 ＊+ 41,358 2.7%p.a. *2241
New Passenger Jet Airplane Deliveries 35,644 5,471 *2241
9
Cargo Demand (RTK ：×10 ton km) 253 274 ＊I 529 3.4%p.a. *2041
Jet Freighter Fleet 2,023 ＊ 2,340 ＊ 3,338 1.8%p.a. *2241
New Jet Freighter Deliveries 698 211 *2241
Total New Jet Airplane Deliveries 36,342 5,682 *2241
Passenger Turboprop Airplane Fleet 3,129 ＊ 2,897 ＊+ 3,476 0.9%p.a. *2241

New Passenger Turboprop Airplane Deliveries 2,751 65 *2241
New Engine Deliveries 86,802 1,295 *2241

( * : A numerical value with * are based on the database of Cirium. ) ( + : A numerical value with + includes part of aircraft of Storage in addition to that of In Service. )
( *2041 : A numerical value with *2041 indicates a figure for the period 2020 to 2041. ) ( *2241 : A numerical value with *2241 indicates a figure for the period 2022 to 2041.)
( *I : A numerical value with *I is based on a preliminary figure by IATA. )
 The growth rate of the world economy (GDP) in the forecast period is expected to
be an annual average of 2.64% (2020-2041).
(In our forecast, as regards GDP, which has a strong influence on air transportation demand, we used data
as of the end of 2021, which takes account of the effects of vaccines and cures in addition to the impact of
COVID-19. Compared with our previous forecast (as of the end of 2020), we expect GDP to recover earlier.
RPK is also expected to recover earlier).
 Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) will increase 2.36 times from 8.49×1012
passenger km in 2019 to 20.0×1012 passenger km in 2041, with an annual average
growth rate of 4.0% during that period.
(In addition to the already declining growth rate in the Middle East region, in which long-distance routes
are mainly operated [set to an equivalent of an annual average of 3.1%], China is predicted to transition
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2022-2041
from the fast growing model of a developing country to the slow growing model of a developed country as
a result of an increase in income in the country during the forecast period [set to an equivalent of an
annual average 4.5%]).
 The number of passenger jets in service will increase from 24,055 at the end of
2021 to 41,358 by the end of 2041. The number of new airplanes to be delivered in
the next 20 years will be 35,644, with sales of 5.47 trillion dollars (based on the
prices listed in the 2019 catalog). The seat class which gives the highest number
of new airplanes to be delivered will be 171 to 230 seat class, with 13,484 airplanes.
By region, North America (25%), Europe (21%), and China (17%) are the top
delivery locations, accounting for 63% of the total airplanes delivered in the world.
 The number of passenger turboprops in service will increase from 2,897 at the end
of 2021 to 3,476 by 2041. The number of new airplanes to be delivered will be 2,751,
with sales of 64.8 billion dollars (based on the prices listed in the 2019 catalog).
The seat class which gives the highest number of new airplanes to be delivered
will be 61 to 80 seat class, with 1,135 airplanes. There will be no particular regions
with a high number of airplanes to be delivered, showing a trend of similar
purchases from all over the world, but there will be high demand for new airplanes
in the Southeast Asia (493 airplanes) and South Asia (575 airplanes) regions.
 Air Cargo Demand (RTK) will increase 2.1 times from 253 × 109 ton km in 2019 to
529 × 109 ton km by 2041, with an annual average growth rate of 3.4% during that
period.
 The number of cargo jets in service will increase from 2,340 at the end of 2021 to
3,338 in 2041. The demand for newly built airplanes will be 698 airplanes (in
addition, 2,109 planes will be converted from passenger jets.), with sales of 210.7
billion dollars (based on the prices listed in the 2019 catalog). The breakdown of
demand for newly built airplanes will be 307 large jets and 391 medium wide-body
jets.
 The world engine demand (including spares) will be 86,802 units, amounting to
1.30 trillion dollars (based on the prices listed in the 2019 catalog). The breakdown
of the demand is 80,747 jet engines, with sales of 1.28 trillion dollars, and 6,055
turboprop engines, with sales of 14.3 billion dollars.
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2022-2041
World
Growth Rate (2020-2041) New Deliveries (2022-2041)
Economy (GDP) 2.64% 39,093
Pax. Traffic (RPK) 4.0% Sales
Cargo Traffic (RTK) 3.6% (2019US$B)
Airline Fleet ('22-'41) 2.5% 5,789
Europe CIS
Growth Rate (2020-2041) New Deliveries (2022-2041) Growth Rate (2020-2041) New Deliveries (2022-2041)
Economy (GDP) 1.5% 7,769 Economy (GDP) 2.3% 17,510
Pax. Traffic (RPK) 4.1% Sales Pax. Traffic (RPK) 3.2% Sales
Cargo Traffic (RTK) 3.1% (2019US$B) Cargo Traffic (RTK) 6.0% (2019US$B)
North America
Growth Rate (2020-2041) New Deliveries (2022-2041) Airline Fleet ('22-'41) 2.7% 1,181 Airline Fleet ('22-'41) 1.9% 238
Economy (GDP) 2.1% 9,324 Middle East Asia-Pacific
Pax. Traffic (RPK) 3.6% Sales Growth Rate (2020-2041) New Deliveries (2022-2041) Growth Rate (2020-2041) New Deliveries (2022-2041)
Cargo Traffic (RTK) 3.8% (2019US$B) Economy (GDP) 2.5% 2,235 Economy (GDP) 3.6% 14,897
Airline Fleet ('22-'41) 1.4% 1,248 Pax. Traffic (RPK) 3.7% Sales Pax. Traffic (RPK) 4.5% Sales
Airline Fleet ('22-'41) 3.2% 560 Airline Fleet ('22-'41) 3.6% 2,187
Latin America Africa

Growth Rate (2020-2041) New Deliveries (2022-2041) Growth Rate (2020-2041) New Deliveries (2022-2041)
Economy (GDP) 2.5% 2,097 Economy (GDP) 3.2% 1,020
Pax. Traffic (RPK) 2.9% Sales Pax. Traffic (RPK) 2.9% Sales
Airline Fleet ('22-'41) 1.8% 239 Airline Fleet ('22-'41) 0.6% 135
( Airline Fleet, New Deliveries and Sales in the above graph are the sum of that for passenger jets, passenger turboprops and jet freighters.)
(Terms and abbreviations in the text are shown on P.185 and the following pages).
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2022-2041
2. Introduction
The development of an airplane takes nearly 10 years from the planning stage to the delivery of the
first airplane, costs some billions of dollars in development costs, and takes years to recover the
investment. Once developed, the airplane will then continue to be produced for several decades
including the development of derived types. And once delivered, the aircraft will be in service as a
long-lasting product, for a decade in a short lifecycle or for over 40 years in a long lifecycle. For this
reason, the aircraft industry is said to be an industry with high business risk.
Factors Considered in Demand Forecast
Aircraft Economic Trend
Airlines’ Strategies Travel/Tourism Trend
Air Policy Route Network

Infrastructure
Alternative Means of Transport Business Models
Oil Price
Environment
Demographics
Long-term Demand Forecast
The airlines to purchase and operate aircrafts are subject to the impact of the economic situation
and social conditions at that time, such as deregulation, privatization, competition with new entrants
such as low cost carriers (LCC), and soaring fuel costs. In order to minimize the business and market
risks in such a business environment, it is important to continue to observe and analyze the trends in
the economic and social environments surrounding the aircraft industry and airlines.
JADC has continued to collect, investigate, and analyze information on the world’s commercial
aircraft markets, including aircraft, air transportation, and airlines and has been forecasting the long-
term demand for air transportation and aircraft since the latter half of the 1970s in order to support for
Japan’s aircraft industry and all other parties concerned to plan long-term product strategies and to
develop long-term business plans.
This edition of "Worldwide Market Forecast," which is a long-term forecast of JADC, covers air
passenger transportation and air cargo transportation in the forecast period of 2022 to 2041, setting
2021 as the reference point for calculation in this report, and forecasts the demand for passenger
turboprops with 15 or more seats, passenger jets with 20 or more seats, cargo jets, and aircraft engines.
This report is intended to make the results of our forecast available to the public.
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Intentionally Blank
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3. Summary of the Airline Industry

3.1 Summary of the Airline Business
Global Situation
In 2020, the world, facing COVID-19, had no choice but to work on preventing the
spread of infection without preventive medicine or a cure, and our lives and production
activities were subject to various restrictions. As a result, the world economy (GDP)
recorded a negative growth (-3.5% [IHS]), which greatly affected air transportation
(RPK) (-66% compared to 2019 [IATA]).
Generally, an increase or decrease in air transportation demand has a clear correlation
with increase or decrease in economic activities, based on which various demands are
forecast. However, epidemic control measures were implemented against COVID-19. For
example, immigration on international flights was prohibited, or even if permitted, self-
isolation for a certain period after arrival was required. The unusual burdens which were
imposed became a decisive factor that strongly suppressed transportation demand, and
the airline business experienced a more drastic shrinkage than the overall economy.
Airlines, facing a deficit and cash drain, had no choice but to endure by taking all possible
measures such as securing loans, receiving government support, selling their aircraft,
and putting employees on furlough or using voluntary employee turnover. Planes
unlikely to carry passengers were stationed on the ground, many deliveries of planes
already ordered were postponed due to many surplus aircraft and deteriorated financial
conditions, and new orders were also significantly decreased.
Amid such a situation, long-awaited vaccines urgently started to be used in December
2020, about one year after the emergence of COVID-19, and vaccination has been widely
promoted mainly in advanced countries since early 2021.
Although vaccination was expected to go smoothly, there are many countries that
reached a saturation point with a vaccination completion rate about from 60 to 70%.
However, it is of significance that the world has acquired countermeasures such as cures
that can be practically applied to patients with minor symptoms in addition to vaccines.
In the U.S., for example, the vaccination completion rate was remained at over 60% at
the end of 2021; nonetheless, the RPK of domestic flights recovered to over 90% of 2019.
This difference may be due to the fact that those who deemed it necessary for their life,
work and movement actively received vaccination. Likewise, it is expected that the
recovery of both economic activities and demand for air transportation will in the future
be accelerated by actively combining available elements such as preventive medicine,
cures, IT technology and understanding of virus mutations, and constituting epidemic
control measures.
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Airlines have still been in a difficult situation financially, but in anticipation of the
recovery of the RPK, orders, mainly of narrow-body jets, recovered significantly in 2021,
and also the delivery schedule postponed in 2020 has started to be brought back on track.
While the global RPK throughout the year of 2021 stayed at 42% (-58% [IATA]) of 2019,
the recovery of RPK already started to exceed 80% in the fourth quarter in some regions
and routes which recovered earlier, including the U.S. As estimated based on such actual
values, it is expected that the global RPK in the future will start an initial recovery of
65 to 70% of 2019, and in 2023, will recover to 90 to 95% of 2019. Even in the medium-
to long-term, GDP forecasts shown by various organizations around the end of 2021,
taking practical use of vaccines into account, have recovered to 0.5-0.6 years behind the
forecasts (IHS) before COVID-19. Based on such forecasts, the medium- to long-term
RPK forecast is expected to recover to 0.3-0.1 years behind. The number of airplanes to
be delivered in the next 20 years is also expected to recover to the same level compared
to the forecast before COVID-19.
(*: If affected by a COVID-19 variant, a delay of about one to two quarters may occur).
Current Situation of the Airline Business
Operating Profits RPK

（×10 9 US$） Passenger Traffic (RPK) and Operating Profits （ ×10 12 Pax. km）
80 10
40 5
0 0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021E
-40 Operating Profits -5
RPK
-80 -10
-120 -15
Source： IATA June 2022
With regard to global air transportation in 2021, IATA (Oct.-Nov. 2020) estimates that
the passenger transportation volume (RPK) and operating profit will drop by 58.4% and
225%, respectively, compared to those of 2019. Then, looking at the financial results for
2021, the total sales of all the airlines in the world is 402 billion dollars, less than for
2019 by 43.2%, and the net profit is 51.8 billion dollars, showing a deficit. In this
situation, the revenue from passengers dropped by 62.6% of 2019, but the revenue from
cargo transportation rose by 73.6%, resulting in a decrease in the total revenue by 43.2%.
The passenger load factor was maintained at 65.5%, but because of a significant
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2022-2041
shortage in cargo transportation capacity (lower hold in passenger flights), the cargo
yield recorded a significant increase by 61% (1.4*1.15=1.61) of 2019 since there was an
influx of demand for transportation to air cargo demand due to a shortage of marine
containers, etc. Meanwhile, airlines were dedicated to profit improvement and the
revenue from cargo transportation rose significantly. However, the net profit to sales
ratio, though improved more than in 2020, was negative in every region.
Airline Net Profit to Sales by Region
0
Net Profit to Sales (%)
Africa Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin America North America Europe
-30
2019
-60
2020
2021E
2022F
-90
Source： IATA June 2022
According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (Mar. 2022),
the RPK of Japanese airlines in 2021 dropped by 58.4% for domestic flights and 90.4%
for international flights from 2019. It dropped by 5.6% for domestic flights and 55.1% for
international flights from 2020.
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3.2 Aircraft Orders and Deliveries

As of the end of 2019, 24,015 passenger jets, 3,129 passenger turboprops, and 2,023
cargo jets were in service in the world.
As of the end of 2021, according to the database, 20,719 passenger jets, 2,555 passenger
turboprops, and 2,340 cargo jets were in service. However, if planes in storage that can
possibly be returned to service early* were added to the planes in service, 24,055
passenger jets and 2,889 passenger turboprops could be active, and thus, the airlines
seemed to maintain the number of planes close to the 2019 level (*: Only planes that
were stored after 2020 or 2021 were included; older planes were excluded).
Order Situation
Jet Airplanes*1 Ordered*2

Unit
4000
Others
3500 Embraer 3245 3345

18
Bombardier 78 78
47
3000 Boeing 232
2655 36
Airbus 2462 2460
224 2366 1848 2330
2500 51 1404
85 127 2067
114 8 256 132 31 86
1855 1919 38 1442 180 10
27 72 1906
2000 74
2 809 209 44
34 213 65 66
79 45 1572 0
49 102 1102 1381 14 986 39
857
1500 22 1214 1270 62
111
44 899
775
939 38 243 10 925
901 75
926 712 866 856 54
1000 13 552 15
41 51 3 718 1798
217 124 494 576
0 148 21 2 1487 1457
73 2
27 87 66
1110
48 1170 1217 1146 2
500 314 251 246 271 240 949 184 0 897
754 701 725 822 822
576
341 347 355 385 407 388
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Source : Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, *1) Passenger jets (including combi and quick change) and variants (such as freighter jets and military models) )
Cirium, JADC (Includes some estimations) *2) Net orders (Cancellation was subtracted from order year)
Although the annual number of orders*3 for variants of passenger jets*4, cargo jets, etc.,
was reduced in 2020 due to COVID-19 in addition to the decrease in the number of orders
associated with the suspension of delivery of the 737MAX beginning in 2019, in 2021,
which is the second year after the emergence of COVID-19, the number of orders for
planes recovered to exceed the actual result in 2019, and returned to an average level
from 2015 to 2019.
Out of 1,906 planes which were newly ordered in 2021, 1,584 units were passenger jets,
and among them, 1,427 units were narrow-body jets for domestic flights (737MAX, A320
series aircraft (mainly A321neo), A220, etc.). It is thought that the airlines prepared for
demand of transportation for domestic and regional flights to recover first from COVID-
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19. 32 units were wide-body jets, 105 units were regional jets, and 20 units were
turboprops.
In addition, among wide-body aircraft, the number of orders for jet freighters and other
derivatives*5 increased to 118 (28 in 2019 and 24 in 2020), including 91 freighters due to
the booming air cargo transportation.
(*3: The actual number of aircraft orders, which is obtained by subtracting the number of canceled
orders from the nominal number of orders)
(*4: Including combi aircraft and quick change aircraft)
(*5: Including cargo jets, VIP aircraft, and aerial refueling aircraft)
Delivery Situation
Unit Jet Airplanes* Delivered

2000
Others
1764
1800 Embraer
1651 35
Bombardier 1618 90
1531 1564 21 26
1600 Boeing 22 101 20
28 108
Airbus 1405 101
92 46 26 1377
1400 1317 15 44
59 19
8 90 89
1192 1160 1103 1171 106 26
1200 806 26
39 1087 1081 0 5 14
108 763 1036
1015 0 0 122 0
154 997 907 923 892 97 748 380
1 133 47 762 41
1000 8 103
162 59 34 723 41
147 120 60 648 3
11 8 4 79 821
61 601
88 135 121
800 39
185 477 43 340
99 481 462
222 175 441 375 16
398 157
600 527
381 290
281 285
400 813 863
695 735
626 629 635
588 566 611
498 510 534
200 378 434 453 483
325 303 305 320
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Source ： Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, Cirium ( * ： Passenger jets (including combi and quick change) and
variants (such as freighter jets and military models) )
The annual number of deliveries of jets in 2021 was 1,036 and started to increase
compared to 2020. Out of these deliveries, the numbers of Airbus jets and Boeing jets
increased by 45 and 183, respectively. Compared to 2020, while the number of narrow-
body jets delivered increased by 269, the number of wide-body jets delivered decreased
by 41.
41 cargo jets＊2 were delivered in 2021 (52 units in 2019). The number of deliveries of
major passenger turboprops was 40 (89 units in 2019).
(*2: Newly built wide-body cargo aircraft. The number is included in the number of jets delivered).
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（Units） Jet Airplane Backlog by Region（Stacked）

16,000
Others
12,000
Middle East
8,000 Asia Pacific
North America
4,000
Europe
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Europe
（Units） Jet Airplane Backlog by Region
North America
6,000
Asia Pacific Asia Pacific
5,000
Middle East
4,000
Others Other North America
3,000
Europe
2,000
1,000
Middle
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Jet Airplane Backlog by Region（Share）

100%
Others
80%
Middle East
60%
Asia Pacific
40%
North America
20%
Europe
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
(In this chart, the backlogs in the Middle-East before 2007 are included in “Other”).
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Backlog Situation
The number of backlogs for passenger aircraft and cargo aircraft began increasing in
2005, when crude oil (fuel) prices began skyrocketing. The number of orders for energy-
efficient new aircraft rose. The number of backlogs continued to rise year by year until
2013 and 2014, which were said to be a bubble in the aircraft manufacturing industry.
After 2015, when crude oil prices dropped sharply, the number of orders decreased and
became almost the same as the number of deliveries, bringing the number of backlogs
into a stable state. At the end of 2019, the total number of backlogs for passenger jets
and variants such as cargo jets, etc., is 14,525.
When the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, transportation demand dropped rapidly
and the financial health of airlines deteriorated rapidly, resulting in the cancellation of
some aircraft orders and decrease in the number of backlogs. The total number of
backlogs for jets including variants of passenger jets, cargo jets, etc., as of the end of 2021
was 14,060, increasing by 645 from that at the end of 2020. North America, especially,
demonstrated its pulling power for this increase, and also, the backlogs share seen by
region increased.
Looking at the distribution of scheduled delivery years for firm orders (backlogs) for
passenger jets, we can see that a shift from equilibrium to recovery occurred in 2021
after the chaos in 2020 in the air transportation industry.
Distribution of firm orders for passenger jets (RJ + NJ + WJ): At the end of 2019, orders
for more than 1,500 aircraft were secured for the next year's scheduled delivery, and from
the next year onward, the number of confirmed orders gradually decreased while leaving
room for sales activities. In 2020, however, the number of aircraft scheduled to be
delivered up to 2023 dropped to a little less than 1,100 a year due to the financial plight
of airlines caused by COVID-19.
Units/yr. Distribution of Firm Orders for Passenger Jets（RJ + NJ + WJ）

2000
1500
End of 2019
1000 End of 2020
End of 2021
500
0
TBD
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
（↑Start Year）
(Comparing Expected deliveries as of the end of each year on the Deliv. Year from star year
assumption that the deliveries will start in the same year)
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The total number of firm orders for the next 20 years was 9,813 (2020-2039: including
273 planes whose delivery dates are undecided) as of the end of 2019, whereas it is 9,372
(2022-2041: including 513 planes whose delivery dates are undecided) as of the end of
2021.
Distribution of firm orders for wide-body jets (WJ): In 2020, the number of deliveries
decreased (307 planes to be delivered → 142 planes actually delivered (46% of the
planes to be delivered); in addition, many of deliveries were postponed to later times.
Especially, the number of planes scheduled to be delivered between 2021 and 2022
decreased significantly, and many of their deliveries were postponed. As a result, the
number of planes scheduled to be delivered between 2023 and 2027 expanded. Then, the
number of planes scheduled to be delivered between 2022 and 2025 relatively stabilized
with nearly 200 each year (the number of planes actually delivered in 2021 decreased,
which mainly resulted from the suspension of delivery of the 787 (77 planes to be
delivered → 14 planes actually delivered (dropped by 63)).
The total number of firm orders for the next 20 years was 1,538 (2020-2039: including
99 planes whose delivery dates are undecided) as of the end of 2019, whereas it is 1,360
2021.
Distribution of firm orders for narrow-body jets (NJ): In 2020, the number of deliveries
decreased. In addition, a great number of deliveries were postponed to later times. The
number of planes scheduled to be delivered between 2021 and 2023 decreased
significantly. Many of their deliveries were postponed to delivery times later than 2024,
and some of the delivery times were extended to around 2035. However, many of the
scheduled deliveries once postponed were brought back on track in 2021; for example,
most of the deliveries re-scheduled between 2031 and 2035 in 2020 were brought back
on track to be delivered earlier than 2028 in 2021. In addition, the number of new orders
recovered (1,427 planes), and many of the new orders are scheduled to be delivered
between 2022 and 2028.
The total number of firm orders for 20 years was 7,703 (2020-2039: including 166
planes whose delivery dates are undecided) as of the end of 2019, whereas it was 7,600
2021.
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機/年
Units/yr. Distribution of Firm Orders for Passenger Jets
ジェット旅客機の確定受注機数の分布（RJ(RJ+NJ+WJ)
+ NJ + WJ）
2000
2017/12/31
1500
2018/12/31
1000 2019/12/31
2020/12/31
500
2021/11/30
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
時期不定
TBD
The sum of the number of aircraft delivered in 2020/21 and the number of aircraft
2020/21年の引き渡し済機数と、同時点での同年分のbacklogの残機数の和を⽰す。納⼊予定年
Planned Deliv. Year
remaining in the backlog for the same year at the same point in time.
Units/yr.
機/年広胴機の確定受注機数の分布
Distribution of Firm Orders for Widebody Pax.（WJ）
Jets (WJ)
400
2019/12/31
300
2020/12/31
200 2021/11/30
100 2020 results

2020年実績
2021 results
2021年実績
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
時期不定
TBD
Planned納⼊予定年
Delivery Year
Units/yr.
機/年 Distribution of Firm Orders for Narrowbody Pax.
細胴機の確定受注機数の分布（NJ）Jets (NJ)
1200
1000 2021 results

2021年実績 Increase 2019/12/31
800 2020/12/31
600 2021/11/30
400
2020 results
2020年実績 Bringing
200
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
時期不定
TBD
Planned納⼊予定年
Delivery Year
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2022-2041
Production Situation
Passenger plane manufacturers had increased their production capacity year by year
since about 2005. For example, in 2019, Airbus and Boeing planned to produce 50 to 60
planes per month to accommodate the orders for A320- and 737-series narrow-body jets.
However, the delivery of the 737MAX was suspended in 2019, by which the numbers of
planes produced and delivered decreased remarkably. In addition, in 2020, air
transportation demand dropped rapidly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since airlines
suffered from financial difficulties, many deliveries of the planes that were scheduled to
be received have been postponed, and aircraft manufacturers also have been forced to
reschedule their production plans. Meanwhile, in some cases, aircraft manufacturers, in
order to maintain their supply chains, maintained a certain degree of production rate,
regardless of the possibility of immediate delivery.
In the latter half of 2021, the recovery of RPK became clear in some regions and routes
which recovered earlier, and new orders, mainly of narrow-body jets, increased
throughout the year, exceeding the actual result in 2019. Subsequently, it is expected
that the global RPK will fully recover from 2022 to 2023, and airlines will move back into
the black, which will allow the production and delivery of aircraft including wide-body
jets to fully recover.
On the other hand, as mentioned later, some of the main models are involved in
technical problems. Such problems are expected to be solved before production and
delivery gain momentum in the future.
Monthly average production based on delivery record *3 Monthly Production Plan *4

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Deliv. Deliv. Deliv. Deliv.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Plan Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Plan
Result Result Result Result
737 580 52 40 (*73a,b) 127 Resumed *73e 5.7 43 18.8 25.0 263 31/Mo. by Q1 end *73c Plan Unkown *73d
767 27 Result 3.6 43 2.3 2.7 30 2.2 3.2 32 3 Plan Unkown
777 48 Plan 4.5 Result 3.8 45 1.7 2.7 26 2.3 1.7 24 3 Plan Unkown
787 145 Plan 14 Result 13.2 157 6.0 2.8 53 2.3 Suspended 14 5 (Schedule after Plan Unkown
resuming delivery)
A220 33 3.5 4.5 48 1.8 4.5 38 3.5 4.8 50 6 Plan Unkown *22
A320 *1 417 33.3 39.3 436 16.5 26.7 259 21.2 22.5 262
45 45 64 (*32)
A321 201 15.7 18.7 206 9.7 21.5 187 18.3 18.5 221
A330 49 2.8 6.0 53 0.8 2.3 19 1.2 1.8 18 2 3
A350 93 8.8 9.8 112 3.8 6.0 59 5.0 4.2 55 6 Plan Unkown
A320 49.0 58.0 642 26.2 48.2 446 39.5 41.0 483
*2 53.5 37.2 40.3 *4 : Figures published by aircraft manufactures.
*1 : Total of A320/319 *2 : Total of A319/320/321 *3 : On the assumption that a delivery result within a period is equal to the number of aircraft produced.
*73a : Delivery suspended in March. *22 : To increase to a monthly production of 14 by 2025 or so.
*73b : Production suspended at the end of December. *32 : New production line for A320 (formerly for 380) in Toulouse is scheduled to start operation.
*73c : 27/month as of January 2022.
*73d : Many reports forecast that a monthly production of 40 to 50 will be kept in 2023. *73e : Resumed at the end of May.
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737MAX: The monthly production was 52 in early 2019. Service and delivery were
suspended in March 2019. After April 2019, shipment of the 737MAX was suspended,
but 40 aircraft were produced per month to maintain its supply chain. Production of
the 737MAX was suspended in January 2020 and then resumed in May, while
delivery resumed in December. While newly producing 737MAX aircraft, Boeing will
accelerate the modification and delivery of about 400 737MAX aircraft stocked since
2019, which, however, is expected to take about two years. Currently, Boeing will
gradually accelerate its production, planning to achieve a monthly production of 31
aircraft by Q1 2022.
For the 737MAX10, Entry Into Service (EIS) is scheduled for 2023 taking account of
countermeasures against accidents. The 737MAX10 is intended to obtain a Type
Certificate (TC) in 2022, including the addition of a third Angle of Arrival (AOA)
detection feature required by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)
for improving the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS).
However, if behind schedule, it may need to largely modify the cockpit design after
2023. The service of the 737MAX in China has not resumed as of March 2022.
787: Due to the trade conflict between the United States and China, a reduction in
production had been planned before the COVID-19 pandemic, and was reduced
further after COVID-19 started spreading. In 2020, 787s were found to have
manufacturing defects in their horizontal stabilizer and fuselage. To address them,
delivery of 787s was suspended in November 2020 but resumed in March 2021.
After that, however, manufacturing defects in their fuselage became problematic
again, and their delivery has been suspended since May 2021. The qualification of
Boeing’s ODA (safety certification services entrusted by Boeing: pre-delivery
inspection of finished aircraft, issue of airworthiness certificate, etc.) concerning the
787 was suspended by the FAA in February 2022, and since then, for the time being,
the FAA itself has been supposed to conduct these services.
777 & 777X: The EIS was rescheduled from initially 2020 to late 2023, and rescheduled
again to 2025 mainly because of a delay in engine development, the rapidly
decreasing demand for aircraft due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the increasingly
stringent certification requirements after the 737MAX accident and engineering
changes. Although, including the production of 777 cargo aircraft, the monthly
production of 777s and 777Xs was reduced to 2 by the end of 2021, it will be increased
to 3 in 2022. In 2021, the 777-200LRF received 42 new orders (40 out of 42 are
scheduled to be delivered by 2025) in the boom of air cargo transportation. In
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addition, development of the 777-8F began as a result of receiving firm orders. The
EIS is scheduled for 2027.
A320 series: The target monthly production of A320 series aircraft (A319, A320, and
A321) was originally 60, but was decreased to about 37 in 2020. The monthly
production will be 45 in 2022.
A330: Airbus planned to produce 40 A330neo aircraft in 2020 (equivalent to a monthly
production of 3.3 aircraft), but delivered only 19 aircraft. Airbus planned to produce
2 A330neo aircraft per month after Q3 2020, but actually produced an average of 1.5
aircraft per month in 2021.
A350: Airbus originally planned to produce 9 or 10 A350XWB aircraft per month, but
planned to produce 5 aircraft per month after 2020Q3. Actually produced an average
of 4.6 aircraft per month in 2021. Regarding the aircraft delivered for Qatar
Airways, paint stripping became problematic. A lawsuit has been filed while any
technical solution has not been agreed on.
********************
Since the outbreak of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, titanium
produced in Russia has not been available to Western companies under economic
sanctions against Russia. Major aircraft manufacturers are said to have used titanium
produced in Russia, which accounted for about 30-50% of the amount of titanium
required by them. Although they are currently coping with such a situation with their
stockpiled material, an impact on aircraft production may surface due to prolongation of
the invasion and recovery of aircraft production after COVID-19, mainly because aircraft
made of composite material use a large amount of titanium to avoid electrolytic corrosion.
Impact of Invasion of Ukraine

In response to the invasion of Ukraine, various countries started economic sanctions
against Russia. Although aircraft leasing companies in Western countries, under an
instruction from their respective government authority, tried to cancel their lease
contracts on passenger jets, etc., with Russian airlines, and recover leased aircraft, the
Russian government captured such aircraft after legislating in a hurry. It seems that
because the leased aircraft (financial assets) were captured in this manner, future leases
or financial services for Russia will be extremely high-risk business for leasing
companies or financial institutions in Western countries.
Therefore, in the future, it will become difficult for financial institutions in Western
countries to implement financial services for Russian airlines, and the Russian airlines
cannot hope to procure aircraft on a dollar or euro basis. It will be highly likely to cover
demand for aircraft only on the basis of the ruble and currencies of Russia-friendly
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countries. In addition, as a consequence of security export control, no western built

aircraft may be available regardless of availability of funds.
Thus, the following possibilities are considered.

① Russia has no access to Western airplanes or parts.
For Russia to be available to operate captured western built airplanes.
Russia will make effort to make the captured Western-built aircraft operational.
Although captured aircraft are being used for the time being, the supply of spare
parts has been forbidden, and thus, the availability thereof will become problematic.
While continuing to operate existing aircraft by acquiring spare parts by any means,
the Russian airlines will prepare to acquire further aircraft subsequently.
② Russia will promote procurement of aircraft produced by the domestic Design Bureau.
The availability of operable aircraft is of importance, and aircraft built based on old
designs, if available, may be fine for the time being.
③ Russia will promote co-development with China (e.g., CR929).
Through such business, the transfer of Russian design technology including engine
technology to China may be accelerated.
China will put the CR929 to practical use, and have the aircraft together with the
C919, etc., operated by its own airlines. China, by not only achieving domestic
production of aircraft but also operating many China-made aircraft, will build a track
record of “safe operation” over 10 to 20 years to establish a footing as a TC issuer.
Accordingly, China will become an aviation power.
In view of compensation for personal/property damages caused to Ukraine, land

restoration, and war crimes that are becoming apparent, etc., the case scenario ① is
highly likely to last for a long time. Case scenarios ② and ③ are highly likely to be
embarked on while scenario ① continues to endure.
Especially, if case scenario ③ is implemented, the share of Western passenger jets in
the Chinese market will drop, in parallel with the import substitution policy, which will
significantly affect sales strategies of manufacturers from Western countries. At the
same time, the long-term impact will draw attention mainly because the security balance
will also change due to the progress of technology transfer (including diversion to
military use) (Related Part: Chapter 9).
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3.3 Until COVID-19 Calms Down
Past Epidemics
In the past 20 years, we have experienced two world-wide epidemics, SARS (in 2003)
and Pandemic H1N1 2009 (in 2009). The following looks back over these epidemics.
RPK, Profit, Orders

Profit PPK （ ×10 12 ）
（×10 9 US$ ） at the previous epidemics Orders （ ×10 3 ）
80 8
after SARS after Pandemic 2009H1N1
Operating Profit
RPK initial Resuming RPK initial Resuming
60 Net Profit Recovery Orders Recovery Orders 6
RPK （2004）（2005）（2010）（2011）
40 Order 4
20 2
0 0
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
-20 -2
European Debt Crisis
911 SARS Financial Crisis
-40 2009H1N1 -4
Skyrocketing Fuel Prices
-60 -6
Source : IATA, ICAO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer
SARS (2003):
Name: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
Symptoms: Severe atypical pneumonia
An outbreak is likely to occur with close contact with infected people.
Cause: Novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV)
Emergence: November 16, 2002 (Guangdong province, China)
Termination: On July 5, 2003, the WHO declared that SARS was under control.
Affected areas: 8,096 cases in 32 regions and countries (774 deaths)
(Excerpt from an article of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID))
https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/ja/kansennohanashi/414-sars-intro.html
SARS emerged before the wounds inflicted by the 9/11 attacks in the U.S. were healed,
and prolonged the last stage of the process of RPK recovery from the incident.
The termination of SARS itself was declared in the summer of 2003. In the RPK
recovery process after the termination, the RPK dropped to 87% of its expected value*1
20
2022-2041
in 2003, but increased to 95% in 2004, showing a remarkable initial recovery.

Furthermore, (despite the skyrocketing fuel prices) the RPK continued a gradual
recovery until 2007, eventually to 98.7% of the expected value*2.
In this recovery process, the airline business moved back into the black (although the
surplus was small) in terms of operating profit in 2004, and in 2006, moved back into the
black in terms of net profit. During this period, orders recovered drastically*3 in 2005
and returned to the level before the 9/11 attacks.
(*1: This line was obtained by taking the RPK growth curve through 1999 and
extrapolating it by the average growth rate from 1999 to 2019.)
(*2: After 2008, the RPK dropped again due to the disruption caused by the
Global Financial Crisis.)
(*3: Although it likely is natural way that the recovery of orders would come after
the return to profitability, the orders started to recover with black of
operating profit only and without black of net profit. It is possible that the
airlines, which had ample financial resources, were pushed earlier by the
need to purchase new aircraft with superior fuel efficiency, due to the the
start of the oil price hike in 2005.)
H1N1 (2009):
Name: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009
Symptoms: Sore throat, soaring fever, cough, runny nose, fatigue, etc. H1N1 cannot
be distinguished from seasonal flu. The fatality rate in Mexico was 0.4 to 0.5%,
which is higher than the 0.05% of seasonal flu, and is almost the same as that
of Asian flu. More than half of those who died from H1N1 had underlying
diseases, such as asthma, diabetes, heart diseases, and diminished immune
systems.
Cause: Novel influenza (Influenza A (H1N1) pdm: AH1pdm)
Emergence: April 12, 2009 (reported in Mexico)
Termination: In Japan, the H1N1 epidemic ended in March 2010.
(Excerpt from an article of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID))
https://idsc.niid.go.jp/iasr/30/356/tpc356-j.html etc.
The H1N1 influenza epidemic occurred during the process of recovery from the
disruption due to global financial crisis in 2008, and airlines were influenced by the
H1N1, the financial crisis and the skyrocketing fuel prices at the same time.
21
2022-2041
The H1N1 epidemic itself ended in spring 2010. Comparing the subsequent RPK
recovery process with the expected RPK value for each year, the RPK bottomed out at
87% of the expected value in 2009 but saw an initial recovery from 2010 to 2011,
recovering to 90.6% and 92.4% respectively of the expected values. During this period,
the fuel prices stayed high, which affected the recovery of the RPK. However, the RPK
continued a gradual recovery until 2014 and eventually reached 95.7% of the expected
value.
In the recovery process, the airline business moved back into the black in terms of
operating profit in 2010, and orders began recovering in 2010 and, in 2011, returned to
the level before the H1N1 epidemic and financial crisis.
Recovery from COVID-19

From these two cases, the recovery pattern can be read as follows:
- An epidemic having calmed down, the RPK immediately begins recovering and the
‘initial recovery’ ends by the end of the following year.
In the case of SARS, the RPK recovered to 95% of the expected value.
- Following the initial recovery, the RPK continues a asymptotical recovery for about
three years. In the case of SARS, the RPK recovered to 99% of the expected value.
- The airline business moves into the black in terms of operating profit after the initial
recovery of the RPK, and in the following year, moves into the black in terms of net
profit and sees a recovery in new aircraft orders.
Based on the above, the process of recovery from COVID-19 can be presumed as follows
as of early 2022:
- Although the application of anti–COVID-19 vaccines has been in full swing in various
countries since 2021, the vaccination completion rate has apparently hit a ceiling in
advanced countries. Meanwhile, in regions with inferior economic power, the
availability of such vaccines is low, their vaccinations have been slow, and communities
and epidemic control measures there are still affected by COVID-19 variants. For
U.S. domestic routes and regions/routes around the U.S. which recovered earlier, the
recovery of RPK already reached 80-90% of 2019. For routes within Europe and
Atlantic routes, RPK has started to recover coincident with the spread of vaccination,
although recovery has been slower than originally expected, which may be due to the
fact that some major countries are being cautious about mitigating epidemic control
measures. However cures, in addition to vaccines, have started to be put to practical
22
2022-2041
use, and it is expected that recovery of RPK will get into full swing because epidemic
control measures in various countries will become less severe.
- While the recovery rate of the global RPK remained at 42% throughout 2021, the
recovery of RPK became apparent in late 2021 in some regions which recovered earlier,
and the recovery rate was already high. Based on such conditions, the RPK will show
a full recovery from 2022 onwards, with the initial recovery expected to take place from
2022 to 2023 mainly in domestic and regional flights. In 2022, it is expected that the
operating balance and financial power of airlines will begin recovery by the effect of
the initial recovery, and the number of deliveries of backlogs will also start to increase.
(*: The RPK recovery rate is expected to be 65 to 70% (2022) and 90 to 95% (2023) of
2019. See next section.)
- The number of orders for new aircraft, mainly for narrow-body jets, began recovery in
2021, and has already exceeded the 2019 level.
RPK（×10 9） Recovery of RPK from COVID‐19 (projection)

20,000
RPK（Actual Value）
RPK（Forecast : Standard Model） Initial Recovery Asymptotic Recovery
15,000 completion completion
RPK（Expected in the past）
Projected deficit due to COVID‐19
10,000
5,000
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
23
2022-2041
RPK Recovery Models
120
RPK (By route, compared to the same month of 2019)
% Between Europe and each region
100 Within Europe
NA (Atlantic)
80
Vactination completed rate
（Western Europe）
60
（All Europe）
（Eastern Europe） JA, NE
South
America
40 AF
Asia
20 ME
0
2020-1
2021-1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
22Q1
22Q2
22Q3
22Q4
23Q1
23Q2
23Q3
23Q4
10
11
12
10
11
12
AF WE&EE ME NA Asia S.America NE Vaccinated(WE) Vaccinated(EE) Vaccinated(WE+EE)
120
% Between North America and each region
100 Central
America
Within USA
80 South
America
ME Europe (Atlantic)
60
Vactination
completed JA, NE
40 rate (NA)
Asia
Vactination
completed
20 rate (Europe)
0
2020-1
2021-1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
10
11
12
22Q1
22Q2
22Q3
22Q4
23Q1
23Q2
23Q3
23Q4
C. America WE&EE ME NE NA Asia S. America Vaccinated(WE+EE) Vaccinated(NA)
120
% Between China and each region China Domestic
100 Vactination
completed
rate (China)
ME
80
60
NA, OC,
WE, EE
40
20 SE, NE
(within Asia)
0
2020-1
2021-1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
22Q1
22Q2
22Q3
22Q4
23Q1
23Q2
23Q3
23Q4
10
11
12
10
11
12
CH WE&EE ME NA NE OC SE SE Vaccinated(CH)
Results from 2020 to 2021 (IATA) Forecasts from 2022 to 2023 (JADC)
24
NA: North America, WE: Western Europe, EE: Eastern Europe, ME: Middle East
JA: Japan, OC: Oceania, NE: Northeast Asia, SE: Southeast Asia, AF: Africa
2022-2041
Some of the RPK recovery models used for the analysis in the previous section are
shown here.
In 2021, since vaccination became practical, vaccination began from the beginning of
the year, and the vaccination completion rate in North America and Europe rose between
the second quarter and third quarter. The RPKs of flights in the U.S. and Europe, as if
coincident with that rise, began recovery, and in addition, similarly, the RPKs of flights
between North America and Central America, and North America and South America,
and North America and the Middle East, or between Europe and Africa, etc., also have
started to rise. The RPK in Atlantic routes between Europe and North America started
to rise following a rise in the vaccination completion rate in Europe, which lagged behind.
While the RPK in U.S.-related regions and routes, as of the end of 2021, recovered to
nearly 90% of the same month of 2019, the RPK in Europe remained at 65% as of the
end of 2021. The RPK recovery rate on Atlantic routes, considered to be affected by the
circumstances of Europe, remained at 60%. According to this calculation, on the basis of
such actual values, estimated changes in the RPK recovery rate after 2022 were used.
In this document, on the basis of the assumed recovery models and the composition
ratio of each route in the global RPK at normal times, the global RPK is expected to
recover to 65 to 70% of the 2019 RPK in 2022 (start of the initial recovery), and in the
same manner, 90 to 95% in 2023*.
When vaccination first started, the vaccination completion rate was expected to
rapidly rise to 100%. In reality, however, many countries showed a tendency to hit a
ceiling at 60 to 70%.
In the case of U.S. domestic routes, while the vaccination completion rate was 65%,
the RPK recovered to around 90%. We believe that those who need to use aircraft would
actively vaccinate to resume using aircraft. In contrast to the above, in the case of
Australia, while the vaccination completion rate has been approaching 80%, the RPK
has remained at about 40%, which we consider is due to travel restrictions including a
state-by-state lockdown.
Likewise, regarding the RPK in Europe, the RPK recovery rate has been much lower
than in North America, while the vaccination rate has been higher than in North
America. We consider that this is due to epidemic control measures taken by countries
because of the fact that there are borders between countries in Europe despite a single
market. Vaccines were put to practical use in 2021, and cures for patients with minor
symptoms became available in 2022. Since February 2022, when the COVID-19 variants
passed their peak, many various European countries decided to relax restrictions on
COVID-19, and thus, it is expected that people will easily travel in the future.
25
2022-2041
(Compared to the same month in 2019: January 2020 to December 2021)
% Changes in RPK with vaccination （U.S. domestic） The progress of vaccination and the
120 30000
RPK RPK start of a rise in RPK coincide well
100 25000
Vaccinated with each other.
80 20000
New cases per million Vaccination The RPK recovery rate has
60 15000
significantly exceeded the
40 10000
vaccination completion rate, and
20 5000
thus, the RPK did not drop greatly
0 0
2
10
11
12
10
11
12
2020-1
2021-1
even though the number of newly
Source：IATA, Our World in Data
The number of newly infected cases per
million people infected cases increased.
% Changes in RPK with vaccination （intra Europe）

120 30000 Although the progress of vaccination
RPK
100 25000 and the rise of RPK coincided with
Vaccinated
80 20000 each other, the RPK recovery rate
New cases per million
60 15000 was lower than that of the U.S.
40 10000 It seems that epidemic control

20 5000 measures at borders between
0 0 countries within Europe affected the
2
10
11
12
10
11
12
2020-1
2021-1
Source：IATA, Our World in Data recovery.
% Changes in RPK with vaccination （Australia domestic） Although the vaccination completion
120 6000
RPK rate has been high, the recovery of
100 5000
Vaccinated RPK of domestic flights was delayed
80 4000
New cases per million because of the spread of infection. In
60 3000
response to an increasing number of
40 2000
infections, a state-by-state lockdown
20 1000
was implemented, which likely
0 0
2020-1
10
11
12
2021-1
10
11
12
drived strong travel restrictions.

% Changes in RPK with vaccination （Japan） In response to a rise in the

120 6000
RPK vaccination rate, the equilibrium
100 5000
Vaccinated point of the RPK of domestic
80 4000
New cases per million flights is likely to have moved to
60 3000
a value different from the
40 2000
previous value after the summer
20 1000
epidemic of the Delta variant.
0 0
2020-1
10
11
12
2021-1
10
11
12
26
2022-2041
% Changes in RPK with vaccination （Russia） Although the vaccination

140 14000
completion rate was low, the
120 12000
100 10000
RPK recovery rate in 2021
80 8000 easily exceeded 100%

60 6000 (The year 2019 was not sluggish
RPK
40 4000
Vaccinated but normal year).
20 2000
0 0
2
10
11
12
10
11
12
2020-1
2021-1
Although the vaccination
% Changes in RPK with vaccination （China domestic） completion rate exceeded 80%,
120 3.0
the RPK recovery rate dropped.
100 2.5
It seems to be the effect of

80 2.0
imposition of strong travel

60 1.5
RPK
restrictions or lock-down which
40 1.0
Vaccinated
20 0.5
was driven by the increased
0 0.0
number of newly infected cases
2
9
2020-1
10
11
12
7
2021-1
10
11
12

in late 2021.
% Changes in RPK with vaccination （India） With a large land mass, the
120 12000
RPK RPK recovery rate of domestic
100 10000
Vaccinated flights was already high.
80 8000
New cases per million The vaccination also would
60 6000
progress more.
40 4000
20 2000
0 0
2
10
11
12
10
11
12
2020-1
2021-1
% Changes in RPK with vaccination （Brazil） With a large land mass, the
120 30000
RPK RPK recovery rate of domestic
100 25000
Vaccinated flights was already high. In
80 20000
New cases per million addition, 2021 showed a
60 15000
relation between the spread of
40 10000
vaccines, the decrease of the
20 5000
number of newly infected cases,
0 0
2
9
2020-1
10
11
12
9
2021-1
10
11
12
and the increase of RPK.

27
2022-2041
The chart below shows the actual RPK of domestic flights. Although the RPK dropped
below 20% in each country when the pandemic started, the RPKs of domestic flights have
often recovered to 60 to 90% of the normal level particularly in countries with large land
areas where airplane transportation is essential to living, indicating that the demand
for transport is solid.
Trends in RPK of Domestic Flights
% 国内線RPKの推移（対2019年同月比：2020年1月～2021年12月）
(compared to the same month of 2019: January to December 2021)
140
China
120
Russia
100 USA Brazil
China
80 Japan
Brazil
60 India
40 Japan United States

India Australia
20 Australia
Within
Within Europe
0 Europe
2020-1
10
11
12
2021-1
10
11
12
Source：IATA
(*: As already shown for Q1 2022, even if infection spread by a new COVID-19 variant
occurs, the damage on the RPK will stop by about one quarter long, and depending
on the situation, the recovery rate is likely to drop by 5 to 10%.
28
2022-2041
3.4 After COVID-19 Calms Down

The global spread of COVID-19 infection obstructed the traffic of people and cargo in
2020, and the world community was greatly shocked both financially and mentally.
Various outlooks for the future were deemed to be gloomy.
In 2021, however, thanks not only to the practical use and widespread implementation
of vaccines but also to the increase in non-face-to-face, remote/long-distance
communication etc. with the help of information and communication technology, the
world has begun to be revitalized by incorporating new behavior patterns. In such
circumstances, GDP forecasts have been revised upward, and been approaching the pre-
COVID-19 forecasts. With this as background, forecasts for demands for air
transportation and aircraft have recovered.
Impact of COVID-19 on the GDP and RPK

The following chart is based on GDP growth forecasts from the reports issued by
several institutions*1.
GDP（2019年⽐） GDP forecast by each institution（compared to 2019）

1.4
IHS 2019-2020
IHS 2019 (JADC 2020‐2039)
1.3 OECD Dec.2021 IHS 2020-2021
IHS 2022 (JADC 2022‐2041) IHS 2021-2022

World Bank Jun. 2021
1.2
IMF WEO 2020 Oct
IHS 2020 (JADC 2021‐2040)
1.1 IMF WEO 2021 Oct
IMF Oct. 2021 OECD Interim 2020 Dec

1.0
OECD 2021 Dec
World Bank Jan. 2021 IMF Oct. 2020
0.9 WorldBank 2021 Jan
OECD Dec.2020 IBRD GEP 2021 Jun

0.8
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
There were few institutions that gave GDP forecasts for the next 2 and subsequent
years. When the previous edition of this document was prepared, many of the GDP
forecasts until 2022 were lower than those as of the end of 2019 by 5.0 to 5.2%, and were
expected to draw a line lower by about 5% on a long-term average (2025 and subsequent
years)*2. The figure obtained by dividing this by the average GDP growth rate during
this period corresponded to a 2.1 years delay on average.
In contrast with the above, in late 2021, each institution’s GDP forecast was revised
upward, and recovered to a decrease of 1.1% on a long-term average (2025 and
subsequent years)*2. This corresponds to a 0.4 years delay on average. (*2: Source: IHS)
(*1: Sources: OECD: OECD Economy Outlook, Dec. 2020, Dec. 2021
IMF: World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2020, Oct. 2021
World Bank: Global Economic Prospects, Jan. 2021, Jun. 2021
IHS Markit: Dec. 2019, Dec. 2020, Dec. 2021)
29
2022-2041
The chart below shows a RPK forecast calculated based on this new GDP, etc. (the
green solid line in the chart).
Comparing the new RPK with the RPK forecast before COVID-19 (the blue dotted line
in the chart), the new RPK drops by 0.45% (2025 and subsequent years) on a long-term
average, which corresponds to a 0.3 to 0.1 years delay.
RPK（×10 9）
Recovery of RPK from COVID‐19 (projection)
20,000
RPK（Actual Value） Equivalent to a delay of
RPK（Forecast : Standard Model） 0.3 to 0.1 years
15,000 ( shift to right )
RPKpostCOVID（new Forecast）
Projected deficit due to COVID‐19
10,000
Asymptotic Recovery
5,000 completion
Initial Recovery completion

0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
In this way, the RPK forecast recovered to the pre-COVID-19 level, and the demand for
aircraft calculated on the basis of the above recovered to the magnitude of the demand
before COVID-19. The details are shown in Chapter 4.
30
2022-2041
Other Factors
The table below shows the COVID-19-related factors that are likely to affect air
transportation demand and aircraft demand.
Factors impacting airlines and demand for airplanes with and post COVID-19
Factor Focal Point
Assumptions Establishment/Distribution of Vaccine/Treatment Timing of establishment, Speed of distribution
Timing and Extent of recovery
Contraction and Recovery of GDP
(Strong correlation between RPK and GDP)
Changes
Quarantine measures (immigration/movement restrictions) Timing and Target of regulation removal
in society
Restructuring of supply chains
Changes in international relations (caused by COVID-19)
→ Changes in the ﬂow of people and cargo
Substitutes for some purposes of air transport
→ Decreased demand for transport?
Use of indirect/remote media (new modes) Teleconferencing (Substitute Meetings:
Changes in more effective for distant or urgent meetings)
passenger Virtual Reality (Substitute Tourism: aﬀordable and easy)
awareness Individual devices, seat arrangement, onboard equipment, airport
facilities
Hygienic awareness
Spreading awareness of measures to prevent infection which
have a scientific/medical basis
Increase debt, Government support
Survival measures (securing operating capital) → Heavy debt after restarting,
Reducing new orders?
Airlines
Cancellation of existing orders, Layoffs/Dismissals
（Reducing Expenses） → Reduced scale of operations after restarting,
Delaying recovery?
Dealing with
Reduced fuel consumption
environmental Start of CO2 emissions regulations
Driver to replace airplanes of old types
problems
The factors in the colored areas in the table above have been reflected in this forecast
calculation, or their impact has been estimated.
In this forecast, the most reliable result is shown in the range that can be predicted
quantitatively at present, but the long-term recovery level of the RPK could be affected
depending on the degree of realization of each factor described in the table above.
31
2022-2041
Intentionally Blank
32
2022-2041
4. Passenger Aircraft Demand Forecast

Chapter 4 describes the forecast of the number of passenger aircraft using the
standard model. The forecast of transportation demand (RPK), which is the basis for the
number of aircraft forecast, is presented in Chapter 5.
4.1 Number of Aircraft in Service
4.1.1 Income Level and Number of Aircraft in Service

In 1998, 15,820 passenger aircraft* were in service worldwide, and in 2018, 26,365
passenger aircraft were in service, which means that the number of passenger aircraft
in service increased by 10,545, or 1.67-fold, in 20 years.
(*: Total number of passenger jets and passenger turboprops. For passenger aircraft only.)
The number of passenger aircraft in service is increasing as transportation and travel

demands increase with the growing economy and increasing income. There is a positive
correlation between the number of aircraft in service per million people and the GDP per
capita although it varies depending on the land area and the degree of development of
the ground transportation network.
Trends in ⼈⼝100万⼈あたりの旅客機(Jet+TP)の機数の推移
the Number of Passenger Aircraft (Jet + TP) per Million People
(1996-2018)
(1996‐2018)
100
⼈⼝100万⼈あたりの
旅客機の運航機数
of passenger
OC NA
million people
aircraft in service
10 CI ME NE
WE
SE
Number
AF
per
1 JA
SW EE
LA
CH
0.10
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
For passenger jets in service only. GDP (real) per Capita (2015USD)
Sources: IHS, Cirium
Also, since it is known that in countries and regions with a GDP per capita of less than
10,000 dollars travel demand increases sharply as income increases, we expect that not
only in China, which has been growing remarkably, but also in Southeast Asian and
South Asian countries, air transportation demand will grow at a high rate, causing
passenger aircraft demand to increase depending on the population of each region.
(AF: Africa, CH: China, CI: CIS, EE: Eastern Europe, JA: Japan, LA: Latin America, ME: the Middle East, NA:
North America, NE: Northeast Asia, OC: Oceania, SE: Southeastern Asia, SW: South Asia, WE: Western Europe)
33
2022-2041
4.1.2 Distribution of ASK by Route Distance
Airlines select suitable aircraft according to the distance of each route. According to
the distribution of ASK by route distance for regular non-stop flight routes, aircraft are
operated as follows:
- Most turboprop aircraft are used for routes with a distance of 1,000 km or less, and
the largest number of turboprop aircraft are used for routes with a distance of 400 to
600 km.
- Regional jets are used mainly for routes with a distance of 400 to 1,500 km in all
regions except North America, but are used for routes with a distance of up to 2,000
km in North America, which is a leading market.
- Narrow-body aircraft are operated on routes between 400 and 4,000 km. They are
mainly used for routes with a distance of 900 to 2,000 km. On routes up to 3,500 km,
narrow-body aircraft provide 90% of the total ASK, and on routes up to 4,500 km, 98%
of the total ASK. In all, narrow-body aircraft provide 52% of the total ASK worldwide.
- Wide-body jets are used for a wide range of route distances, but mainly for routes with
a distance of 5,500 to 10,000 km. Wide-body jets supplied for routes with a distance of
4,500 to 13,000 km account for 78% of the total ASK of wide-body jets.
34
2022-2041
4.1.3 Distribution of ASK by Number of Seats
The distribution of ASK by number of seats in different route distances is as follows:

- For routes with a distance of 1 to 1,000 km, the bars for turboprop aircraft and regional
jets with 41 to 100 seats are slightly higher than the other bars, and the bars for
narrow-body jets with 121 to 170 seats (e.g., A320, 737-700/800) are noticeably higher,
showing that aircraft with 121 to 170 seats are the mainstream.
- For routes with a distance of 1,000 to 2,000 km, aircraft with 121 to 170 seats are the
most commonly used as well. In addition, narrow-body jets with 171 to 230 seats (e.g.,
A321, 737-900ER, 757) and wide-body jets with 231 to 400 seats are also in service.
- For routes with a distance of 2,000 to 4,500 km, aircraft with 121 to 170 seats are the
mainstream. In addition, narrow-body jets with 171 to 230 seats and wide-body jets
with 231 to 400 seats (e.g., A330, 767/787) are also in service. In this range of distances,
due to the longer distances compared to routes with a distance of 1,000 to 2,000 km,
relatively large aircraft, such as narrow-body jets with 171 to 230 seats and wide-body
jets with 231 to 400 seats, are increasing.
- For routes with a distance of 4,500 km or more, the number of aircraft with 311 to 400
seats (e.g., A340, 777) is largest, followed by aircraft with 231 to 310 seats (e.g., A330,
787), aircraft with 501 to 800 seats (A380), and aircraft with 401 to 500 seats (747). In
recent years, the number of aircraft with 401 to 500 seats is decreasing due to the
decreasing number of 747 aircraft.
35
2022-2041
4.1.4 Increase in the Average Number of Seats (Adoption of Larger Aircraft or More Seats)
World Top 50 Airports Operational Performance

120
2007
100
2018
Passengers ( ×10 6 )
80
60
40
20
0
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Source ： IATA WATS+ 2019 & 2008 Movements (×10 3 )
１機あたりの平均座席数の推移
Trends in the Average Number of Seats per Aircraft
120
115
110
Index (2001=100)
1,000 km or less
1,000km以下
105
1,000-2,000km
100
95
2,000-4,500km
4,500km以上
90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source ： OAG
Comparison of the relationship between the number of takeoffs and landings and the
number of passengers at the world’s top 50 airports between 2007 and 2019 shows that
the number of takeoffs and landings did not increase or decrease significantly but the
number of passengers increased. The average number of passengers per takeoff and
landing in 2007 was 98, but it increased to 134 in 2019 by 37%. During this period, the
world’s annual load factor increased from 76.1% to 81.9% by 5.8%. Even with this in
mind, the average number of seats per aircraft has increased, indicating that airlines
are working to increase the number of seats (increase the density) or increase the aircraft
36
2022-2041
size to address the increasing number of passengers.

The average number of seats per aircraft decreased until the mid-2000s because of the
emergence of regional jets, the adoption of twin-engine aircraft, which can be used for
long-range flights, and increased use of small aircraft in high frequency. After that,
however, the average number of seats per aircraft started to increase around 2004 first
for routes with a distance of 2,000 km or less, due to the rise of LCCs (high-density seat
arrangement), the restricted number of takeoff-and-landing slots at airports (difficulty
in increasing flights), and the mergers of airlines which lead the reduction of redundant
routes and flights (streamlining). Then, the annual average load factor rose above 80%
in dealing with the skyrocketing fuel prices after 2005 (increased cost per seat). After
around 2012, when many four-engine aircraft had retired, the average number of seats
per aircraft started to increase even for mid- and long-range routes with a distance of
over 2,000 km. On the whole, aircraft have an increasing number of seats (high-density
seat arrangement or shift to larger models of the same family).
4.1.5 Retirement (Trends through around 2019)

The retirement and renewal of passenger aircraft depends mainly on fluctuations in
economy (transportation demand), fluctuations in fuel prices, application of noise control
and other regulations, and emergence of new aircraft with the latest technologies and
the demand for them. In the past, the enforcement of large-scale noise control regulations
and the sharp and prolonged rise in fuel prices led to the retirement of many aircraft and
also produced a large demand for new aircraft for renewal, which served as a driving
force for advancing technologies and increasing economic efficiency in airline industry
through the renewal of old aircraft with new aircraft.
By 2002, many old aircraft which fell under Chapter 2 of the ICAO noise regulations
(aircraft around 30 years old) retired. The next few years after the older aircraft were
retired were a period of relative tranquility, with aircraft around 25 years old taking
center stage in the annual retiring of aircraft. （Average retirement age is around 27 years old.）
After 2005, however, the skyrocketing fuel prices forced airlines to replace their old
aircraft that require higher maintenance costs and even relatively new aircraft with
more fuel-efficient aircraft. As a result, especially after 2009, the average retirement age
dropped rapidly, and many aircraft that were 22 to 25 years old, and even aircraft around
18 years old retired. After 2015, because fuel prices had been stabilized, the temporary
rush of retirement and renewal slowed down but the average retirement age remains
below 23 years. The stabilized fuel prices helped stop the average retirement age from
dropping, but because of a substantial number of backlogs, the average retirement age
is expected to remain at the current level for the time being.
37
2022-2041
Recently, more aircraft are exposed to heavy use because of the rise of LCCs, and these
heavily used aircraft are expected to retire earlier than the average retirement age. Since
LCC is a new industry, not many aircraft have reached their service life, but the number
of aircraft that will retire early is expected to increase noticeably in the future, causing
the average retirement age, mainly of narrow-body jets, to drop.
Looking at passenger jets manufactured by Western companies, 227 aircraft retired in

2003, and the average retirement age was 26.6, but after 2008, about 400 aircraft retired
every year and between 2012 and 2015, over 500 aircraft retired every year. After 2015,
when the fuel prices dropped, the number of retired aircraft dropped but was 538 in 2019.
During this period, the average retirement age dropped from 27 to 28 years to 23 years
or so, and was 22.8 years in 2019. Currently, many of the aircraft delivered between 1990
and 2002 are retiring.
As for passenger turboprops manufactured by Western companies, only 20 aircraft
retired every year around 1980 and the average retirement age was about 21 years. After
that, however, the annual number of retired aircraft increased linearly and reached 80
in 2003, since which an average of 88 aircraft have retired every year. The average
retirement age was on the increase between the 1960s and 1985. After that, the average
retirement age remained stable at around 23 years, and since 2005, it has been
increasing gradually and reached 26.8 years in 2019.
The number of retired passenger turboprops, like the number of retired passenger jets,
dropped after the peak. However, the average retirement age has been increasing
gradually in the past 50 years, and even in recent years remains at 26 to 28 years, which
unlike the average retirement age of passenger jets, is showing no declining trend.
There is a tendency for passenger turboprops to be used longer than passenger jets
because their good fuel economy was reconsidered when the fuel prices rose rapidly
and appropriate alternative models are not being produced for turboprops with certain
numbers of seats.
38
2022-2041
39
2022-2041
(No. of retired
（機/年）per year)
aircraft Trends in the Number of Retired Aircraft
退役機数の推移（5年移動平均） (5-year Moving Average)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
WJ NJ RJ WJ+NJ+RJ
(years)
（歳） Trends in平均退役機齢の推移
the Average Retirement Age (5-year Moving Average)
（5年移動平均）
30
25
20
15
Period of
10 skyrocketing
5 fuel prices
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
WJ NJ RJ WJ+NJ+RJ
Emergence of Secondary Demand

In order to stay in the transportation business, airlines are required to maintain the
required transportation capacity, i.e., a sufficient number of aircraft, therefore, the
retirement of passenger aircraft will be linked to the procurement of alternative aircraft.
In the past, the average age of retired passenger aircraft was about 25 years, and had
a dispersion of about 4 to 5 years around there, but recently more than a few aircraft are
being retired at less than 20 years. It is presumed that many of these aircraft are used
heavily by LCCs and FSCs for their short-range frequent flights, and because of the
recent rise of LCCs, the number of such early retired aircraft is expected to increase.
In such cases, some of the aircraft delivered in the early stage of the forecast period in
this document will retire before the end of the period and new aircraft will be delivered,
causing the number of deliveries in the period to increase. Appendix F shows the results
of assessment of this “secondary demand”.
40
2022-2041
4.2. Aircraft Demand Forecast

4.2.1 Air Passenger Demand Forecast (RPK)
In the forecast conducted before COVID-19 (standard model)*, the global RPK was
expected to grow by an average of 4.0% per year between 2020 and 2040, and increase
by a factor of 2.3 from 8.49 × 1012 passenger km in 2019 to 19.3 × 1012 passenger km in
2040. According to this forecast, which is based on the GDP forecast and other data that
incorporates the effects of anti-COVID-19 vaccines (COVID-19 forecast), the RPK in
2041 is 20.0 × 1012 passenger km and the annual average growth rate through 2040 is
4.0%. Although this forecast has been greatly affected by the revised GDP with COVID-
19, we can see the RPK will recover to a decrease of 0.45% or so on average, which
corresponds to a 0.3 to 0.1 years delay (for details on RPK, refer to Chapter 5).
(*: Worldwide Market Forecast 2020-2039) [JADC, YGR-5102])
RPK （×1012 ） World Air Passenger Traffic (RPK)

20
Actual Forecast
16
2.4 x
12
5.1% p.a. 4.0% p.a.
8
2.7 x with COVID-19
4 Actual
no COVID-19
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
World Air Passenger Traffic by Region

Asia-Pacific
（China） 4.5%
（Southeast Asia） 4.8% 4.5% (Annual Growth Rate)
（South Asia） 6.4% Breakdown of

（Oceania） 2.9% Asia‐Pacific
（Northeast Asia） 2.2%
（Japan） 3.1%
Europe 4.1%
（West Europe） Breakdown
（East Europe） 6.3% 3.9% of Europe
North America
Middle East 3.7% 3.6%
Results in 2019
Latin America 2.9%
CIS 3.2% Growth in 2020-2041
Africa 2.9%
0 2 4 6 8
RPK (×1012 passenger km)
41
2022-2041
With regard to the air passenger demand, or RPK, by region, North America and
Europe (Western Europe and Eastern Europe) are expected to see a 22 years (2020-2041)
average growth rate of 3.6% and 4.1%, respectively, almost the same as the global growth
rate. With these growth rates, the RPK of North American airlines is expected to increase
from 1.92 × 1012 passenger km in 2019 to 4.21 × 1012 passenger km in 2041, and that of
European airlines from 1.97 × 1012 passenger km to 4.77 × 1012 passenger km. Their
market shares are expected to move from 23％ and 23% in 2019 to 21% and 24%,
respectively, and the market share by European and American airlines as a whole is
expected to slightly decrease. Meanwhile, the market share by Asia-Pacific airlines* is
expected to increase. (*: Indicated in brownish colors in the chart below).
In the past 20 years, airlines in the Asia-Pacific region saw an annual growth rate of
7.3% in RPK, forming the world’s largest market. The airlines in the region, including
mainly airlines in China, ASEAN countries, and India, are expected to continuously grow
by a factor of 2.6 at an annual rate of 4.5%, from 2.90 × 1012 passenger km in 2019 to
7.58 × 1012 passenger km in 2041, and their market share is expected to expand from
34% to 38%.
Breakdown of Air Passenger Demand (RPK) by Region

Eastern Europe 1% Northeast Asia 3% Japan 2% Africa 2%
Latin
Southeast Asia Middle East CIS
2019 North America 23% Western Europe 22% China 16%
8% 9%
America
3%
5%
South Asia 3% Oceania 2%

South Asia 5% Oceania 2%
Southeast Asia Middle East Latin CIS

2041 North America 21% Western Europe 22% China 18%
9% 9% America
3%
4%
Eastern Europe 2% Northeast Asia 2% Japan 2% Africa 2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Looking at the annual average growth rate in air passenger demand by region,
Chinese airlines saw an average growth rate of 12.4% in the past 20 years, but in the
next 22 years (2022 to 2041), their growth rate is expected to drop to 4.5% because of the
recent decline in the economic growth rate and the maturity of the market. However,
their growth rate is expected to remain higher than the global average, and the RPK in
2041 is expected to be 3.52 × 1012 passenger km, 2.6 times 1.33 × 1012 passenger km in
2019.
South Asian airlines, including Indian airlines, and Southeast Asian airlines are
expected to grow at annual rates of 6.4% and 4.8%, respectively. The RPKs in these
regions are expected to be more severely affected by COVID-19 than the global average,
42
2022-2041
and their RPK growth rate forecasts also showed a slowing trend, but still remain higher
than the global average. The sum of their RPKs was 0.92 × 1012 in 2019, 69% of China’s,
but because of the high growth rate, is expected to increase to 2.89 × 1012 in 2041, 82%
of China’s.
Middle Eastern airlines saw an annual average growth rate of 11.6% in the past 20
years, harnessing the transit passenger demand, but are seeing a decline in the growth
rate beginning in 2016. In this forecast, with an annual average growth rate of 3.1%,
their RPK is expected to increase from 0.77 × 1012 passenger km in 2019 to 1.71 × 1012
passenger km in 2041, and their share is expected to be 9%.
RPK Annual
Growth Rate (%)
RPK Growth Rate by Region
20
2000-2019 Results
2020-2041 Forecast
15
12.4
11.6
9.5 9.4
10
8.6
6.3 6.8 6.4

6.0
5.1 5.0 4.8
5 4.5 4.4
4.0 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.9
2.7 2.9 3.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2
2.2
1.0
0
World North Latin West East Africa Middle Oceania Japan China Northeast Southeast South CIS
America America Europe Europe East Asia Asia Asia
Based on these RPK and load factor forecasts, the global ASK is expected to grow at
an annual rate of 4.1% in the next 22 years (2020 to 2041), and increase to 24.1 × 1012
seat km in 2041, which is 2.3 times the 2019 figure.
(Note: The forecast made after COVID-19 on the recovery of RPK and deliveries is based
on information available at the time of editing. JADC plans to revise its forecast
for the next fiscal year based on new input information, including the revised GDP
forecast).
43
2022-2041
4.2.2 Passenger Jet Demand Forecast

In 2020, COVID-19 caused great damage to airlines and aircraft manufacturers, and
the number of actual aircraft deliveries remained at 45% of the number of deliveries
scheduled as of the end of 2019. This trend continued in 2021, but the RPK started to
recover at some region as early as the summer as vaccines became more widespread. In
2021, new orders, mainly of narrow-body jets, recovered, exceeding the actual result in
2019. In addition, the number deliveries, mainly of narrow-body jets, increased as well,
and reached 68% of the 2019 actual delivery result, and as of the end of 2019, 61% of the
number of the aircraft scheduled to be delivered in 2020. After 2022, the number of
deliveries is expected to further recover, and the RPK is also expected to recover and
exceed the 2019 level during the period from 2023 to 2024 (Related Part: Chapter 3)
We expect that after that, the RPK will recover to approximately 0.45% of the forecast
with no COVID-19 impact, and that the growth rate will be almost the same (long-term
average: 4.0%), and again show stable growth. (Related Part: Chapter 5)
********************
The number of in-service passenger jets worldwide is expected to increase by a factor
of 1.7 from 24,055* in 2021 to 41,358 in 2041. The number of deliveries of passenger jets
between 2022 and 2041 is expected to be 35,644, out of which 18,341 aircraft will be
delivered to replace existing aircraft, accounting for 51% of the total number of deliveries,
and 17,303 aircraft will be to address a future increase in air passenger demand.
Development of Passenger Jet Fleet

50,000
41,358
40,000
Growth
No. of Airplanes
30,000 17,303
24,055 49% New
Deliveries
20,000 Replacement 35,644

18,341
51%
10,000
Retained
5,714
0
2021 2041
(*: Even in 2021, among aircraft owned by airlines, some were in service and others were
stored on the ground without flights. Many aircraft that could immediately return
44
2022-2041
to service were included those in storage, and thus, in order to grasp potential
transportation capacities that these airlines maintain, such aircraft should be
counted in as aircraft in service. In this document, the initial condition for forecast
calculation is based on the total number of aircraft actually in-service as of the end
of 2021, and aircraft in storage considered to be able to immediately return to
service (those newly in storage in 2020 or 2021).
RJ: Regional Jets

The number of in-service regional jets with 100 seats or less was 3,404 as of the end of
2019 (potentially 3,429 at the end of 2021), and is expected to decrease to 2,622 in 2041,
while the proportion of regional jets in service to the total number of aircraft in service
is expected to decrease from 14% to 6.3%. We expect that between 2022 and 2041, 3,134
aircraft will retire and 2,327 aircraft will be delivered, accounting for 6.5% of the number
of deliveries during this period.
Current regional jets were created through successful development of business jets
with the CF34, an excellent engine that was converted into a commercial engine based
on the TF34 military engine in the early 1980s. First, regional jets with 50 seats were
put on the market in the early 1990s, and they attracted many orders to fill the demand
for alternatives to turboprop aircraft, take over low-demand routes from the main lines,
and explore new routes. Around 2000, 70-seat class regional jets were put on the market.
After that, mainly because of the airline slump after the terrorist attacks in the United
States on September 11, 2001 and the skyrocketing fuel prices, airlines rushed to shift
from the aircraft of this class, which require higher cost per seat (CASK) due to their
compactness, to the 70-seat class aircraft, which are more economically efficient. In
addition, these aircraft have a shorter service life because of the airframe structure
inherited from the base business jet. For these reasons, the number of regional jets
decreased. The production of aircraft with 50 seats or less, such as the CRJ100/200 and
ERJ 135/145, which is said to be the First generation, was discontinued in 2007 due to
the skyrocketing fuel prices, and after that, aircraft with 70 to 100 seats, such as the
CRJ700/900 and EMB170/190, which are the Second generation, were put on the market.
These models are mainly used for feeder lines connecting to main lines, but many of
them are subjected by the Scope Clause and airlines are subject to restrictions on their
service. In the North American market, the largest market for regional jets in the world,
a typical condition of the Scope Clause is that the number of seats be 76 or less and the
maximum takeoff weight be 86,000 lb. or less. Because of this condition, airlines
operating feeder lines cannot shift to large aircraft that can carry more passengers and
are economically efficient, even if they expect enough passengers. As a result, the market
45
2022-2041
for 70-seat class regional jets has been formed, due to the effect of damming up the shift
to larger aircraft with more seats.
During the period when improving operational economic efficiency was a critical
challenge to address the skyrocketing fuel prices, there was a movement to relax the
Scope Clause to increase the number of seats per aircraft. However, after the end of the
skyrocketing fuel prices, there has been no sign of movement to relax the Scope Clause
as it could cause a dispute between labor and management.
Currently, the second-generation 70 seat-class aircraft are being produced, and at the
same time, the third-generation aircraft are under development, which are equipped
with more economically efficient next-generation geared turbo fan engines instead of the
CF34 that supported the first-and second-generation regional aircraft. The Embraer E2
series and Mitsubishi SpaceJet are included in this third generation of aircraft.
As for regional jets, only those with 70 seats or more are being supplied. As suggested
by the fact that airlines shifted to 70-seat class aircraft to pursue operational economic
efficiency, supplying new aircraft with 50 seats (or less) in the future would require
realizing measures to improve economic efficiency that takes advantage of the
characteristics of aircraft with 50 seats (or less) and achieving the same level of economic
efficiency as 70-seat class aircraft. However, it is unlikely for the time being that
improvement measures* applicable only to 50-seat class aircraft will be realized.
(*: New fuel-efficient engines, one-person operation that uses unmanned aircraft
technologies, etc.)
This forecast assumes that for regional jets with 50 seats or less, no new aircraft will
be supplied in the next 20 years. The previous forecasts calculated that there was a
certain level of demand for regional jets with 50 seats or less by setting a virtual regional
jet, but this forecast does not include such an assumption. As a result, the number of
deliveries of regional jets in this forecast is smaller than the previous ones.
Incidentally, the salary of pilots is generally proportional to the number of seats of
aircraft they operate, which also applies to regional jets. In addition, the salary of copilots
is said to be about half that of captains, and it takes about 10 years to be promoted to
captain. Therefore, regional jet pilot is not an attractive job, and not many people want
to be a regional jet pilot. In addition, there were times when regional jet pilots were
recruited to make up for the shortage of pilots for main lines. In order for regional jets
to be continuously used with a certain aircraft demand, these conditions must be
improved.
46
2022-2041
Fleet and New Deliveries

Regional Jet Narrowbody Widebody
100%
4,361 7,884 6,735
80%
60%
Share
16,265
30,852 26,582
40%
20%
3,429
2,622 2,327
0%
2021 Fleet 2041 Fleet New Deliveries 2022-2041
NJ: Narrow-Body Jets

As for narrow-body jets with over 100 seats, 15,937 aircraft (potentially 16,265 at the
end of 2021) were in service as of the end of 2019, and 30,852 aircraft are expected to be
in service in 2041, accounting for 75% of the total number of passenger jets. We expect
that between 2022 and 2041, 11,995 will retire and 26,582 new aircraft will be delivered.
The number of deliveries of narrow-body jets with over 100 seats accounts for 75% of the
total number of deliveries.
As for narrow body jets with 101 to 120 seats, which is classified as the smallest narrow
body jet, the release of the A220-100 (CS100) attracted a lot of attention recently. The
DC-9 and 737 used to belong to this class, but these models became larger and larger,
through model changes, as the generation proceeded and so no longer belong to this class.
There were some short body variants of large aircraft, such as the 737-700, but they did
not attract attention mainly because of their low operational economic efficiency. The
A220 is the first new aircraft in a while with a totally new design to enter this class
which had been virtually empty for some time, and its 5 abreast configuration is a good
choice for this class of aircraft. Once, in this class, the airliner of 6 abreast configuration
was used and called "thick and short." It must be hard for competitors with 6 abreast
configuration to compete A220. It is still fresh in our minds that when the A220 first
entered this blank area, there was a "300% tariff" fuss involving the US Department of
Commerce. Because the tariffs were denied by the U.S. Government's International
Trade Commission ruling, the A220 project was brought under the umbrella of Airbus,
and A220s will be finally assembled at the factory in the United States, it is expected to
be a stable business along with the A220-300 which is one class larger. The class of
47
2022-2041
aircraft with 101 to 120 seats includes the A220-100, a narrow-body jet and E195E2, a
large regional jet. The number of aircraft in this class is expected to increase to capture
part of the passenger demand that has been covered by aircraft with 121 to 170 seats,
and the expected number of deliveries in the next 20 years is 2,821.
No. of
Airplanes Passenger Jet Fleet and Delivery Forecast by Size
18,000
Regional Jet Narrow body Jet Wide body Jet
16,000
14,297
13,621 Total Fleet :
14,000 End of 2021 24,055
New
End of 2041 41,358
Deliveries
New Deliveries :
12,000 Existing
Retained 2022-2041 35,644
2021 2041
10,000
8,000
12,555 13,484
6,000
4,307
10,277
3,508
4,000
2,622 2,934
3,660
2,000 3,075
2,327 2,821 3,344 3,188
2,393 2,358 69
1,692
1,036 0 813 0
0 295 522 113 647 433 311
0 0 69
2021 2041 2021 2041 2021 2041 2021 2041 2021 2041 2021 2041 2021 2041 2021 2041
20-60 61-100 101-120 121-170 171-230 231-310 311-400 Over 400
Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats Seats
As for narrow-body jets with 120 seats or more, because of economic efficiency and
airport congestion issues, larger aircraft such as the A320/A321 and 737-800/MAX-8
have been more popular compared with the A318/319 and 737-700. Although the class of
aircraft with 121 to 170 seats has had the largest fleet of aircraft for a long time, orders
for aircraft with 171 to 230 seats are on the increase.
The forecast results show that aircraft with 171 to 230 seats have the largest number
of deliveries, of 13,484, and the number of aircraft of this class in service is expected to
be 14,297 in 2041. Previously, it was expected that demand would gradually shift from
the 121-170 seat class to this class, but as specific types of aircraft such as the A321LR /
XLR announced their candidacy to the market and the ordering trend changed, this class
is expected to have the largest number of deliveries in the forecast period. At the same
time, aircraft with 121 to 170 seats, which were expected to have the largest number of
deliveries in the previous forecasts, still have a large number of deliveries at 10,277, and
the number of aircraft of this class in service is expected to be 13,621 in 2041, still
forming the largest group.
Looking at the number of deliveries of narrow-body jets by classifying them by number
48
2022-2041
of seats in increments of 50, the numbers of deliveries of aircraft with 101 to 150 seats,
with 151 to 200 seats, and with 201 to 250 seats are expected to be 9,165, 15,938, and
1,885, respectively.
This forecast basically classifies models with 101 to 230 seats as narrow-body jets. All
the currently supplied aircraft in this range are single-aisle aircraft, but there were twin-
aisle aircraft with 220 seats (two classes) such as the 767-200, and single-aisle aircraft
with 240 seats (two classes) such as the 757-300. The class of around 230 seats has the
property of forming a boundary region. Since the production of 767 passenger jets was
discontinued, no aircraft has belonged to this class, giving a clear classification of aircraft
by number of seats. Recently, however, the successor to the 757 is getting attention, and
the NMA has been named as a candidate. Airbus revealed a plan to build the A321XLR
after putting the A321LR on the market. Airbus decided to build long-range A320-series
aircraft with an increased number of seats, and swiftly put them on the market to
capture as much of the niche market as possible. Boeing decided to aim to develop a new
fuselage with new cross section for its NMA, consisting of a twin-aisle cabin (enhanced
passenger comfort), and a single-aisle cargo compartment (enhanced economic efficiency
with reduced drag).
As mentioned above, the 5 abreast layout is suitable for narrow-body jets of the
smallest class (101 seats or less), which therefore require a different fuselage than those
with a 6 abreast layout, which is the standard for narrow-body jets, and is considered as
a different model. The DC-9 series is an example of aircraft with a 5 abreast layout, and
the MD80/90 was supplied in a two-class configuration, and was in service for a long
time with the number of seats increased up to 150. Depending on where the number of
seats, which is the boundary between the 5 abreast layout and the 6 abreast layout, is
set in the lineup provided by the manufacturer in the future, it is possible to cover the
range from 100 seats to the NMA area with 2 models or divide it into 3 models.
WJ: Wide-Body Jets

As for wide-body jets, 4,674 aircraft (potentially 4,361 at the end of 2021) were in
service as of the end of 2019, and 7,884 aircraft are expected to be in service in 2041. The
proportion of wide-body jets to the total number of passenger jets is expected to slightly
decrease from 19.5% to 19.1%. 3,212 aircraft will retire and 6,735 new aircraft will be
delivered between 2022 and 2041, accounting for 19% of the number of deliveries during
this period.
Wide-body jets are marketed mainly for medium- and long-range international flights,
and major domestic flights with high demand. Since the enforcement of Extended-range
49
2022-2041
Twin-engine Operational Performance Standards (ETOPS), twin-engine aircraft have

come to be able to be used over much larger areas, including oceans. In addition, the 787
and other medium-sized aircraft that are excellent in terms of fuel economy and flight
range have allowed airlines to expand their business into long-range routes with
moderate demand which used to be unprofitable with large aircraft like the 747 and 777.
The current wide-body jet market consists of medium- and large-sized twin-engine
aircraft, such as the 787, 777 and A330, A350, and they are distributed to the class of
aircraft with 230 to 400 seats.
As for large aircraft with over 400 seats, some thought that there was a demand mainly
in high-demand routes connecting major cities to address the restriction on the number
of flights in order to reduce congestion at airports and the prolonged rise in fuel-related
expenses, but looking at the current order situation, this demand is covered by aircraft
with 400 seats or less. The number of scheduled deliveries of (four-engine) large aircraft
with over 400 seats is only 6 because of the discontinuation of the production of the A380
(in 2021) and 747 (scheduled in 2022), and the number of such aircraft in service is
expected to decrease as the retirement of these models proceeds, eventually reaching 69
in 2041. In addition, the unexpected emergence of COVID-19 has significantly
accelerated the retirement of 747s, imposing the end of an era.
In 2020, when the passenger transportation demand disappeared due to COVID-19,

the retirement of twin-engine aircraft as well as four-engine aircraft seemed to accelerate.
The EIS of the 777X was postponed to 2025 because of its oversize and other technical
problems, and as for twin-engine wide-body jets, such as the 787, the production of many
aircraft has been reduced due to the cancellation of orders or postponement of deliveries.
The charts below show the number of deliveries, planned production, backlogs for each
year, and forecasts of aircraft.
The number of deliveries of wide-body jets decreased due to the influence of COVID-
19 and the suspension of delivery of the 787 (2020 to 2021). In addition, the currently
scheduled number of deliveries for each year has decreased because the deliveries
scheduled in 2020 were postponed due to the influence of COVID-19, but the scheduled
number of deliveries, temporarily staying stable without significant changes in 2021, is
about 200 per year from 2022 to 2025 (Related Part: p. 13 in Chapter 3. Also, a few
scheduled deliveries disappeared due to cancellation).
For forecast calculation, since the period from 2022 to 2023 will come soon, the number
of deliveries is based on scheduled deliveries made by firm contracts. In addition, the
number of backlogs after 2024 will be left affected by the postponement of the deliveries
50
2022-2041
scheduled in 2020, but it is expected that cash flows for airlines will be improved because
the global RPK will recover to or exceed the 2019 level between 2023 and 2024, and at
the same time, demand for long-range international flights will also recover. Therefore,
our forecast calculation was made, considering that their intrinsic pulling power will
recover in a relation between transportation demand, and the number of aircraft in-
service or in retirement and delivery after 2024.
The number of deliveries of wide-body aircraft will not reach the pre-COVID-19 level
because the recovery of aircraft demand will be delayed due to the delay in recovery of
the RPK of international flights between 2022 and 2023, and also because demand for
wide-body aircraft (231-310 seat class) will be partly absorbed by attractive models of
narrow-body aircraft (171-230 seat class). However, slightly less than 300 wide-body jets
per year on average are expected to be continuously delivered from 2024 and onwards.
unit/year Delivery of Widebody Jets（Actual & Forecast） Backlog（End of 2020）

500
Backlog（End of 2021）
400
300 Delivered＋Planned
200 Forecast（JADC）
100
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
The number of deliveries of narrow-body jets turned to a recovery from 2021,

stimulated by the demand for domestic flights, and according to backlogs and monthly
production plans, the number of deliveries of such aircraft will further increase in 2022,
exceeding the delivery result in 2019.
unit/year
Delivery of Narowbody Jets（Actual & Forecast） Backlog（End of 2020）
2000
Backlog（End of 2021）
1600
Delivered＋Planned
1200
Forecast（JADC）
800
400
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
51
2022-2041
Attractive narrow-body jets, such as the A321XLR, help shift part of the demand for
wide-body jets to narrow-body jets, and the annual number of deliveries is expected to
stay between 1600 and 1200 for the time being to make up for the shortage in deliveries
from 2019. We believe that the number of new aircraft to be produced in the next several
years will be the number of aircraft delivered in each of the years shown in the figure,
minus the 737MAX shipments that have been delayed since 2019.
Classification by Region
Looking at the forecasts by region, the number of passenger jets in service as of the
end of 2019 was largest in North America, where 6,697 aircraft were in service. We
believe that the number of passenger jets was potentially 6,949, and will increase to
9,691 in 2041. The proportion of the number of aircraft in service in North America to
the total number of aircraft in service is expected to decrease from 28% to 21%, during
which, however, the number of deliveries in North America is 8,718, the largest,
accounting for 24% of the total number of deliveries in the world.
The number of aircraft in service in Europe is expected to increase from 4,931
(potentially 4,709 in 2021) as of the end of 2019 to 8,554 in 2041, and the proportion of
the number of aircraft in service in Europe is expected to increase from 21% to 22%.
During this period, the number of deliveries in Europe is expected to be 7,427, and the
proportion of the number of deliveries in Europe is expected to be 21%, the second largest.
No.of Airplanes
Passenger Jet Fleet and Delivery Forecast by Region
18,000

16,000 End of 2021 24,055
End of 2041 41,358
14,000 New Deliveries :
2022-2041 35,644
12,000
13,263 New Deliveries
9,691
10,000
8,554
Retained
8,000
6,000
8,718 7,427
6,172
4,000
6,949 7,729
2,441 2,139
4,709 3,029 949 1,757
2,000 3,911
2,564 2,176 1,801 2,127
1,509
1,480 1,469 1,339 1,411
973 1,127 589
657
512 564
456 722 182 526 665
314 338 781 799 1,137
0 203 143 100 150 248
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
North North South Middle Latin

Europe Asia Japan China east east South
Oceania East America Africa CIS
America Pacific Asia Asia
Asia
52
2022-2041
The number of aircraft in service in China was 3,719 (potentially 3,911 in 2021) at
the end of 2019, the third largest in the world. It is expected to be 7,652 in 2041, still the
third largest following North America and Europe, but grow to over 80% of the numbers
of aircraft in service in North America and Europe. During this period, the number of
deliveries in China is expected to be 6,172, and the proportion of the number of deliveries
in China will be 17%. Out of 6,172 aircraft deliveries, 1,197 are wide-body jets (which
account for 18% of the total number of deliveries of wide-body jets in the world), the
second largest along with North America (1,196 aircraft, 18%), following Europe (1,397
aircraft, 21%), but exceeding the Middle East (1,055 aircraft, 16%).
Airlines in China have rapidly grown mainly in the short- and medium-distance
ranges (up to 4,500 km). The average growth rate of the RPK in the past 20 years
(between 2000 and 2019) reached 12.4%, and Chinese airlines have been a pillar
supporting the global aircraft demand, but its growth rate dropped to 8.1% in 2019.
Besides, the GDP per capita has just reached $10,000 in China and the future RPK is
expected to change from the fast growing model of a developing country type to the slow-
growing model of a developed country type during the forecast period. In this forecast,
2024 is set as the inflection point, referring to the actual changes that have already
occurred in other regions, and set the growth rate after that close to the global average.
As a result, the number of deliveries dropped by approximately 900 from the previous
forecast (between 2019 and 2038), including affected by the downward revision of the
GDP forecast due to COVID-19. (Related Part: Section 5.3.3)
As for Southeast Asia (mainly ASEAN countries), the Middle East, and South Asia
(India, etc.), the passenger demand is expected to grow at a higher rate than the global
average, and the number of aircraft in service is expected to increase as well. The
numbers of aircraft in service in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia in
2041 are expected to be 3,485, 2,441, and 2,358, respectively. The numbers of deliveries
are expected to be 3,029, 2,127, and 2,176, respectively.
In the Middle East, the number of deliveries of wide-body jets will be 1,055, accounting
for 50% of the total number of deliveries in this region. Airlines in the Middle East have
adopted aggressive expansion policies particularly since around 2003, and have captured
the demand of long-distance transit passengers through “the sixth freedom of the air.”
As the RPK has quickly expanded the scale at an annual growth rate of well above 10%
and even above 20% for a while mainly in the long-distance range (4,500 km or longer),
they have procured many wide-body passenger planes and have driven the market.
However, after the crude oil price dropped in autumn 2014, the growth rate of the RPK
dropped rapidly, eventually to 2.3% (IATA) in 2019. This forecast by JADC did not use
53
2022-2041
this growth rate directly, but carried out calculations assuming, based on the actual RPK
growth data in the Middle East after 2015, that the rapid growth accompanied by the
redivision of markets have ended and the average growth rate will be around the global
market level (3.1%). The future number of deliveries is lower than the previous forecast
by JADC. In reality, the airlines have already canceled orders, postponed deliveries, and
changed their aircraft models. In addition to a movement to use existing aircraft longer
than initially planned, depending on how the actual growth rate will change in the future,
there is a possibility that the number of deliveries, especially of large wide-body jets, will
decrease further. (Related Part: Section 5.3.2)
(JADC made the previous forecast (2020 to 2040), assuming that because many A380 aircraft of airlines in the
Middle East were stationed on the ground, the possibility that such aircraft would return to service in the future
was 50%. However, it is reported that almost all such aircraft had already returned to service by the end of 2021,
and thus, this forecast treated all such aircraft as aircraft in service).
4.2.3 Passenger Turboprop Demand Forecast

With regard to passenger turboprops with 15 seats or more, which are operated by
airlines all over the world, the number of aircraft in service in 1994 was 5,908, where it
peaked. After that, the number of aircraft in service decreased because of the spread of
regional jets, eventually falling to 2,633 at the end of 2019.
Trends in Orders for Passenger Airplanes

( Turboprops and Regional Jets )
700 350
Jet Fuel Price *
600 300
Jet Fuel Price * (US￠/gallon)
Regional Jet
Turboprop
No. of Ordered Airplanes
500 250
400 200
300 150
200 100
100 50
0 0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
* : Jet fuel refinery delivery price (nominal price) Source : Cirium, IndexMundi
Most of the turboprop aircraft currently in service are operated in routes with a
distance of 1,000 km or less. These routes include those that offer the minimum required
transportation service in society and those with difficulty using jets for technical reasons,
and therefore, are expected to be maintained because a certain transportation capacity
54
2022-2041
is required even after the withdrawal and reduction of unprofitable routes and flights
has proceeded. In addition, because fuel prices remained extremely high for a long time,
fuel-efficient turboprop aircraft have been preferred again, having shown a recovery in
orders after 2005. However, orders dropped rapidly after 2020 due to COVID-19.
Development of Passenger Turboprop Fleet

4,000
3,476
2,897
3,000 Growth 579 21%
No. of Airplanes
New
Replacement Deliveries
2,000 2,172 2,751
79%
1,000
Retained
725
0
2021 2041
The forecast expects that the number of turboprop aircraft in service will increase from
2,633 (potentially 2,897 at the end of 2021) at the end of 2019 to 3,476 at the end of 2041.
During this period (2022 to 2041), 2,172 aircraft will retire and 2,751 new aircraft will
be delivered.
Passenger Turboprop Fleet and Delivery Forecast by Region

No. of Airplanes
2,000
1,777 Total Fleet :

End of 2021 2,897
End of 2041 3,476
2022-2041 2,751
1,200
1,439 New Delivery
Retained
800
625 662
382 360 1,000 363 355 289

493 575
400
267
521 282
298 381 271 300
338 371 367 216 213
283 261 339 46 222
84 89 27 13 132 87 32 73 73 54
0 55 26 31
25 12 37 63 35 14
18
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
North Asia Japan China North South South Oceania Middle Latin
America
Europe
Pacific east east Asia East America Africa CIS
Asia Asia
55
2022-2041
Looking at the number of turboprop aircraft in service by region, the numbers of

aircraft in North America and Europe are currently slightly larger than those in other
regions, but 300 to 500 aircraft are currently used in Latin America, Africa, Oceania,
Southeastern Asia, and other regions, revealing a characteristic that turboprop aircraft
are used widely in almost every region without unevenly distribution.
Turboprop aircraft are continuously required in routes that require the minimum
required air transportation service even if they are unprofitable and routes with special
geographical conditions, such as isolated islands. We expect that, in these routes,
turboprop aircraft with 15 to 19 seats will continue to be in service, and 298 aircraft will
be delivered in the next 20 years.
Recently, not many aircraft of this class have been produced and supplied, and airlines
are forced to prolong the service life of their aircraft to continue service. The average age
of aircraft in service is 30.5 years, but 53% of aircraft are over 30 years old and 26% are
over 40 years old. 84% of aircraft which are 40 years old or older are DHC-6 (205 aircraft),
and when thinking of aircraft that are 30 years old or older, many L-410, Jetstream31,
Merlin IV, and Do228 aircraft are included as well as DHC-6 aircraft. There are also
Beech 1900 (171 aircraft) in the range of 30 to 20 years old, which will gradually cross
the 30-years-old line.
Passenger Turboprop Fleet and Delivery Forecast by Size

No. of Airplanes
2,500
Total Fleet :
New End of 2021 2,897
2,000 Deliveries End of 2041 3,476
Existing New Deliveries : 1,698
Retained 2022-2041 2,751
2021 2041
1,500
1,135
1,000
616
410 360 392
1,170
500
788
612 519 563
328 420 284 392
0 82 4 76 0 0
2021 2041 2021 2041 2021 2041 2021 2041 2021 2041
15-19 Seats 20-40 Seats 41-60 Seats 61-80 Seats 81-100 Seats
In 2021, 420 aircraft with 20 to 40 seats were in service. In this class, many DHC8-
100/-200 and SAAB340 aircraft are in service, accounting for 73% of the total number of
aircraft of this class in service. 59% of aircraft in this class are 20 years old or older, but
younger than 30 years. Although these aircraft are not old now, they are expected to
reach their economic life in the early 2020s. Therefore, alternative aircraft are
56
2022-2041
increasingly required especially among North American airlines, but suitable alternative
aircraft of this class have not been produced. JADC carried out calculations assuming
high-speed cruise turboprop aircraft with 30 seats as aircraft of this class, and expects
that there will be a new demand for 612 aircraft in the next 20 years, and the number of
aircraft in service will be 616 aircraft in 2041. However, since no aircraft are supplied in
reality, the aircraft in service as of the end of 2021 were 27.8 years old on average,
showing an aging of the aircraft. A supply of suitable aircraft is required.
Approximately 21% of aircraft with 41 to 60 seats in service are over 40 years old, most
of which are An-24/26 aircraft. 66% of aircraft in this class are 30 years old or younger,
most of which are ATR42 and DHC-8-300 aircraft. Among these models, the ATR42 is in
production, but the annual number of deliveries is about 5 on average. The DHC-8-300
is no longer produced, so cannot be renewed. Some airlines are modifying them to extend
their service life. In-service aircraft in this class in 2021 were 26.0 years old on average.
Almost all aircraft with 61 to 80 seats in service were ATR72 and DHC-8-400. New
aircraft of both models have been supplied, and most orders for passenger turboprops
have been both models since 2005. The aircraft in this class are still young, 8.8 years old
on average as of the end of 2021.
As for turboprop aircraft with 81 to 100 seats, no new aircraft are currently supplied,
therefore, JADC carried out calculations assuming high-speed cruise turboprop aircraft
with 90 seats as virtual aircraft, and expect that there will be a demand for 392 aircraft
in the next 20 years. Turboprop aircraft of this class are expected to compete with
regional jets. Specially in short-range routes, there is no large difference in flight time
between these turboprop aircraft and regional jets and by considering ground time at the
airfield the difference to be small.
57
2022-2041
4.2.4 Renewal of Aircraft: Retirement and Delivery

In order to stay in the transportation business, airlines are required to procure one
new aircraft of the same class each time one old aircraft is retired. Therefore, retirement
inextricably steers delivery, and the retirement forecast is part of the delivery forecast.
When collating the past delivery record and the past retirement record, some cases
show two identical delivery peaks (which are concurrently retirement peaks) after a
certain period elapses from a delivery peak (which is almost an average retirement age
at that time). The approximate time of a future retirement/delivery from a recent actual
delivery can be estimated as shown in the chart below.
(In the chart, Jet Planes refers to passenger planes and variants such as Freighters).
（Units/Year） Deliveryジェット輸送機の納入実績と退役時期の目安（NJ+WJ）

of Jet planes and Estimated Time of Retirement (NJ+WJ)
25 years
1800
1600
Delivery
1400
1200
23 years
1000
800
600 Estimation of
400 Retirement or
Delivery for
200
replacement
0
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
2036
2039
2042
2045
（Source : JADC stock） Delivered NJ+WJ NJ+WJ (25 years shifted)
Taking account of the fact that in the case of both wide-body jets and narrow-body jets,
the average retirement age of aircraft is currently approximately 25, a group of the
aircraft delivered in quantity between 2005 and 2018, in particular, is predicted to
intensively come to retirement age between 2030 and 2045. At the same time, the
delivery of a large quantity of aircraft for renewal is required, and aircraft
manufacturers are expected to prepare, in this timing, new type of aircraft with excellent
fuel consumption performance and less CO2 emission.
58
2022-2041
5. Air Passenger Demand Forecast

5.1 Air Passenger Demand (RPK)
The world has experienced 911 attacks in 2001, SARS and the Iraq War in 2003, the
financial crisis in the United States in 2008 and the debt crisis in Europe following it.
The global air traffic volume (RPK) decreased every time these incidents occurred. In
addition, the escalation of fuel prices from 2005 to 2014 weighed on airlines and
decreased passenger demand. However, as fuel prices started dropping in fall 2014, the
RPK began recovering, then increased at a rapid pace of around 6.5% every year, and
seemed to have almost returned to the growth line estimated with the data before 2001
by 2019.
In this way, air passenger demand is affected by the impact and burden from the
external environment, but tends to start growing again and return to the initial growth
curve every time.
Trend in World Air Passenger Traffic (RPK)

Actual Standard model Old Expected Forecast 1 Forecast 2
24
World Air Passenger Traffic (RPK: ×1012 passenger km)
（Based on new GDP, etc.）（Deficiency and recovery with

1980- 1991- 2001- 2008- COVID‐19 : see Chapter 3.）
1982 1993 2003 2009
20
2005-2014
Average Growth Rate
16 1989-1999 4.7%
1999-2009 3.7% 0.3～0.1 years lag
2009-2019 6.6% 2.36 x
12 1999-2019 5.1%
2026-2041 3.9%
5.1% p.a. 3.98 % (2020-2041)
8
2.7 x
0
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
Sources: IATA,ICAO,
ICAO, JADC Yellow hatch shows recessions of Airline industry.
Source ： IATA, JADC
Orange frame shows Soaring period of crude oil price.
As shown by the red line in the figure, the global RPK grew by 5.1% on annual average,
experiencing ups and downs, during the past 20-year evaluation period between 2000
and 2019 (from the end of 1999 to the end of 2019) and, at the end of the period, increased
2.7 times compared with the beginning of the period. JADC made a forecast with the
results of a correlation analysis between RPK and the GDP and other factors during this
period. The RPK forecast based on the GDP and other factors made before the COVID-
59
2022-2041
19 pandemic is shown as the ‘standard model’ in the figure. Likewise, the RPK forecast
based on the GDP*1 and other factors made at the end of 2021, taking the impact of
COVID-19 into account, is shown as the ‘RPK forecast’. According to the standard model,
it is anticipated that the global RPK will be 2.2 times that of 2019 in 2039, and that the
annual average growth rate will be 4.0% during this period. However, the RPK forecast*2
made this time indicates that the global RPK will be 2.36 times that of 2019 in 2041,
that the annual average growth rate will be 3.98%, and that the RPK between 2025 and
2035 will be lower than that in the standard model by about 1.2 to 0.3%. Or it can be
seen as an approx. 0.3 to 0.1 years’ delay. (*1: Source: IHS)
(*2: The JADC forecasts the recovery of RPK and the number of aircraft deliveries after the COVID-
19 pandemic based on the information available at the time of editing. The JADC plans to obtain
new input information including revised GDP forecasts, and update this document in the next year).
5.2 Forecast of RPK
5.2.1 Composition of RPK

The air passenger demand (RPK) is known to change depending on the income, airfare,
population, distance, number of flights, season, availability of alternative transportation,
and other factors and be particularly strongly related to income levels (GDP) and airfares
(yield).
Relationship between RPK, Real GDP and Real Yield

24 12
9/11 Iraq War Financial Crisis Stablization of
20 Gulf War 10
Attacks SARS H1N1 Pandemic Crude Oil Prices
RPK Growth(%), Yield Growth (%)
16 8
12 GDP RPK 6
GDP Growth (%)
8 4
4 2
0 0
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
-4 -2
-8 -4
Yield
-12 -6
-16 -8
As shown in the chart, when RPK increases, GDP basically increases as well. They
behave very similarly and have a clear positive correlation. In contrast, airfares
generally decrease when RPK increases, showing a negative correlation. The future
trend of the RPK is mostly forecast by using long-term forecast values and assumed
values of GDP and yield in these relationships.
60
2022-2041
The yield and RPK moved in the same direction at some places in the chart. For
example, in 2001 (the terrorist attacks in the U.S.) and 2008 (the global financial crisis),
the economic (GDP) disruption caused by these incidents spoiled transport demand
(RPK), and airlines were overwhelmed regardless of their desperate efforts to attract
customers by lowering ticket prices (yield). The RPK is affected by factors such as
conflicts, terrorism, disease, and financial crisis. While the RPK often recovers after a
short period once the causes are removed, some temporarily cause significant drops. It
is therefore an important challenge for airline management to address fluctuations in
air transportation demand due to these external factors (or event risks).
It is noteworthy that, in the past, even if the growth of RPK was affected by the oil
crisis, etc., it did not show a decrease to the extent that it became zero growth. However
in recent years RPK has clearly shown a decrease when an big incident occurs.
5.2.2 Economic Trend (GDP)

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic took the world by storm, largely affecting the global
economy and public life. However, vaccines urgently started to be used in December 2020
for the first time, and in some countries which recovered earlier, the vaccination
completion rate rose in the summer to the fall of 2021, which led to better improving the
environment for overcoming COVID-19.
Epidemic control measures have been still required to some extent, and some
restrictions on people traveling, meeting, etc., still remain. However, the GDP growth
rate is considered to have recovered from -3.5%* year-on-year in 2020 to +5.5%* year-on-
year in 2021. We can say that the economy has already recovered to the 2019 level by
making up for the economic shrinkage in 2020 with the growth in 2021. The GDP growth
rate is expected to be 4.2%* in 2022, and after that, it is expected to gradually decrease
from the 2020 level to 2.82%* on average until 2041. (*: Source: IHS)
In the long run, the annual average growth rate of the global real GDP (calculated in
2015 USD) is forecast to be 2.82% between 2022 and 2041 (reference year is 2019). China,
Southeast Asia (mainly ASEAN), and South Asia (such as India) are expected to keep
relatively high GDP growth rates during this period.
Chapter 5 explains the RPK which is the basis of aircraft demand forecast. In this forecast, the reference
year should be 2021, but the RPK in 2021 is temporary and peculiar data, therefore is not suitable as the
basis of long-term forecast. Therefore, this forecast, as for the GDP and RPK, continuously used 2019 as
the reference year, and some part of this chapter shows data at normal times before 2019 as
environmental data for the forecast.
61
2022-2041
Economic Forecast by Region (Real GDP Growth Rate)

2.82%
World 3.03%
3.75%
Asia‐Pacific 5.20%
2.28%
North America 2.08%
Europe 1.65% 2022‐2041
1.75%
Breakdown of Europe
1.57% 2000‐2019
Westen Europe 1.63%
2.45%
Eastern Europe 3.45%
Breakdown of Asia‐Pacific 0.84%

Japan 0.83%
2.44%
Oceania 2.89% 4.22% 8.76%
China
1.65%
North‐East Asia 3.95%
4.33%
South‐East Asia 5.17%
5.38%
South Asia 6.12%
2.84%
Middle East
3.72%
2.85%
Latin America 2.12%
3.42%
Africa 4.13%
2.49%
CIS 4.02%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
(Source: IHS) Average Growth Rate of Real GDP
In particular, China will continue to produce significant GDP growth partly due to its
scale, although its growth rate will be 4.2% in the future until 2041, which is lower than
the annual average growth rate of 8.8% for the past 20 years. In addition, Southeast Asia
and South Asia are also anticipated to have a growth rate of 4.3% and 5.4%, respectively.
In developed regions, the economic growth rate is expected to be 2.28% in North America,
1.65% in Europe, and 0.84% in Japan. The economic growth rate in the Middle East is
expected to be 2.8%. The total global real GDP is expected to be 149 trillion dollars in
2041, a 1.78-fold increase from 84 trillion dollars in 2019.
GDP Share by Region

NE 3% JA 5% ME 3% AF 3%
LA CIS
2019 NA 26% EUR 24% CH 17%
7% 2%
SE 4% SW 4% OC 2%
SE 5% SW 7% OC 2%
LA CIS
2041 NA 23% EUR 19% CH 25%
6% 2%
NE 2% JA 4% ME 3% AF 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
62
2022-2041
5.2.3 Passenger Yield
2015 US cent/RPK Change of Real Yield by Region

25
Western Europe
20
World
15
10
5
North America
0
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Source : AEA, A4A, ICAO, IATA, Cirium
The global real passenger yield has decreased by 2.0% on annual average for the 20
years between 1999 and 2019. Major factors that decreased the real yield during this
period are a reduction in operating costs as a result of updating to new planes with good
operational economy and streamlining efforts by airlines. The rise of LCCs and their
competition with existing airlines are additional important factors.
The escalation of fuel prices that continued for about 10 years ended, and airfares will
probably continue to drop as a result of further improvement in the operational economic
efficiency of aircraft, corporate efforts by airlines, and competition among airlines
including LCCs. However, cost reduction by airlines seems to be about to hit a wall and
on the other hand, naturally, airlines seek to increase yields. As a result, the reduction
in airfares is expected to slow down.
During the forecast period, the real passenger yield is forecast to decrease by about
0.8% on annual average given the competition among airlines and impact of fluctuations
in fuel prices as well.
5.2.4 Passenger Load Factor

The global annual average of the passenger load factor (LF) was 82.0% in 2019. The
passenger load factor was 68.6% in 1999 and has increased by about 13% in 20 years. In
2019, the annual average reached 84.0% and 84.6% in North America and Europe and
reached 88% in the U.S. during the busy season. The LF in other regions also increased
year by year and the annual average is above 80% in many regions.
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This high passenger LF resulted from a decrease in revenue caused by a reduction in

airfares due to competition among airlines including LCCs and the efforts to improve the
RASK (revenue per ASK) by keeping an increase in the ASK lower than that in the RPK
to address a significant rise in the breakeven point of the LF caused by an increase in
operating costs due to the escalation of fuel costs and other causes.
Load Factor (%)

Passenger Load Factor by Region 1999
100
2019
90 2039
80
70
60
50
40
North Europe Asia- Middle Latin Africa CIS World
America Pacific East America
Because the crude oil prices, which continued to soar for about 10 years, dropped
significantly starting in the fall of 2014, economic pressures on airlines were largely
mitigated. A subsequent sharp drop in orders for new fuel-efficient aircraft showed their
sense of relief. However, because a significant reduction in CO2 emissions will be
demanded in the future, airlines are expected to incur new costs to purchase CO2
emissions credits and expensive SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) and it will remain
difficult to increase fuel consumption without careful consideration.
Besides, passenger airfares are not expected to largely rise in the future partly due to
competition among airlines. Therefore, the passenger LF seems like it will remain high
in the future through precise supply and demand adjustment by airlines. For this
forecast, the passenger LF is assumed to change from 82.0% in 2019 to 83.1% in 2041
across the world.
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2022-2041
% Passenger Load Factor of U.S. Airlines

米国エアラインの旅客ロードファクター
(domestic and international flights)
90
2021/7
80
70
月次
Monthly 年間平均
Annual average
60
Ceiling 87% Floor 73.5%

50
Floor 75.5% Floor 78%
2021/2
40
30
20
2020/4
10
Source : BTS
(Escalation period of fuel prices)
0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
For example, in the U.S., the load factor (LF) has a clear seasonality. Summer is the
peak season and the load factor hits a peak centered around July. As shown in the figure,
the LF steadily rose in the 2000s and was fixed at around 87% during the busy season
for the last 10 years or so. Certain airlines have had a load factor of over 90% during the
busy season and are said to be racking their brains trying to increase the number of
passengers. For example, they try to make more seats available to customers by asking
employees and their family members to avoid using their employee discount. Winter is
the low season and the LF is much lower than the busy season. However, the lower limit
has steadily risen as shown in the chart probably due to the effects of upgraded seat
selling logic. In recent years, the low limit is the same level to the upper limit of around
2000. Because the upper limit has been fixed at the constant level and the lower limit
rose, airlines had been always crowded throughout the year. The upper and lower limits
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2022-2041
seemed to further rise in 2019.

However, passenger demand, though temporary, dropped sharply due to COVID-19 in
2020, and the LF also dramatically dropped. After that, by the end of 2020, it had
returned to about 50%, and by the end of 2021, when vaccination had also progressed, it
had returned to about 75%, but seasonality and other factors are still not readily
apparent.
5.2.5 Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices, and therefore fuel prices, largely affect the economy of air
transportation. Escalation of crude oil prices shrinks the world economy (GDP).
Escalation of fuel prices hinders the growth of air transportation demand (RPK) via a
rise in airfares (yield). Although the last escalation of crude oil prices ended after
continuing for about 10 years, crude oil prices and fuel prices could fluctuate again in
the future due to changes in the supply-demand balance or incidental or external factors.
The chart below shows the actual value (real price) and the future value*1 forecast by
the IHS.
In the long run, the development of alternative energy sources will progress so as to
reduce CO2 emissions, and demand for crude oil will decrease. Therefore, crude oil prices
are expected to show a stable shift, at relatively inexpensive levels.
(*1: This is the crude oil price setting used by JADC, which is incorporated into the RPK
forecast via the yield).
Transition & Forecast of Crude Oil Prices (Brent Crude Oil )
160
140 Brent Crude (real)
Average Spot Price
120
(2015US$/bbl.)
IHS Brent & JADC 2022

100
80
60
40
20
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source : IHS Markit
Recently, crude oil prices have apparently shown an upward trend from October 2021*2,
and already reached around $90/bbl. (WTI) as of February 2022. Then, in response to the
invasion of Ukraine, crude oil prices reached $124/bbl. in March 2022. In April, U.S.
President Biden announced the release of up to 1 million barrels per day for 180 days
from oil reserves, and as a result, the WTI price dropped from $107/bbl. to $100/bbl. in a
day.
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2022-2041
The escalation of crude oil prices is a backlash caused by the tightness of the supply-
demand balance, and the president’s decision helped to smooth out that tightness.
However, some action to clearly increase production in a full-scale fashion, which can be
a decisive solution, is required. (*2: Around $70/bbl. in September 2021)
Shale oil production in the U.S. has not recovered up to now after COVID-19, which is
deemed to be due to the following reason: shale oil operators have not raised capital
under pressure from the green investment sector. It is required to distinguish how to
handle long-term events from how to handle short-term events without confusing them.
Meanwhile, although crude oil prices in April were around $100/bbl., looking at real
prices for crude oil, they are close to the 2011 to 2014 price level. During that period,
there was a flood of orders to update fuel-efficient aircraft in response to skyrocketing
fuel prices, forming an “order bubble”. Airlines, though having already replaced old
aircraft used during that period with current aircraft having much better fuel
consumption performance, are expected to deal with not only crude oil (fuel oil) prices
themselves but also CO2 reduction pressure, and we believe that should this price level
continue, and airlines have enough capital, waves of updates would occur again.
(2015USD/bbl.) Change in Crude Oil Prices (Brent, real : 2015 USD)

140
Second oil crisis 暦年平均
120
Brent ( actual, real )
100 First
Gulf War Brent ( forecast, IHS )
80
oil crisis
60
40
Production
20 increase in COVID-19
Financial crisis
0
Saudi Arabia
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
1968Q1
1969Q3
1971Q1
1972Q3
1974Q1
1975Q3
1977Q1
1978Q3
1980Q1
1981Q3
1983Q1
1984Q3
1986Q1
1987Q3
1989Q1
1990Q3
1992Q1
1993Q3
1995Q1
1996Q3
1998Q1
1999Q3
2001Q1
2002Q3
2004Q1
2005Q3
2007Q1
2008Q3
2010Q1
2011Q3
2013Q1
2014Q3
2016Q1
2017Q3
2019Q1
2020Q3
Sources: IHS, EIA
USD/bbl. Change in Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Prices (Real price: 2015 USD)
200
Jet Fuel
180 (U.S. Gulf Coast)
160 WTI Crude
140
120 Brent Crude
100
80
60
40
20
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Sources: IHS, EIA
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2022-2041
5.2.6 Environmental Issues

In the past, noise and air pollution problems around airports were spotlighted as
environmental issues in the airline industry. However, as interest in global warming is
recently increasing, CO2 emissions from aircraft* are also gathering attention.
(*: Account for 1.8% of global annual CO2 emissions.)
It is expected that there will be strong demands for dealing with environmental
problems in the future. Airlines will make further efforts such as updating to fuel-
efficient aircraft, adopting efficient flight methods that lead to fuel saving, and use of
alternative fuels in the future.
Although past issues such as noise and exhaust gas were not a part of the economy of
passenger planes, one characteristic of recent CO2 emission controls is that they are tied
to emissions trading and so are directly incorporated into the airline’s economy. Because
demand for new generation passenger planes that employ new environmentally
conscious technologies increases accordingly, environmental measures will drive aircraft
updates, in addition to the conventional fuel economy.
CO2
CO2 emissions from international air transportation was 604 × 106 tons in 2018,
increasing by 4.2% from 2017. These CO2 emissions account for about 1.8% of the global
total CO2 emissions, but are forecast to continuously increase in the future in line with
the growth of air traffic volume.
In the 37th session of the Assembly in 2010, the ICAO set a reduction goal that involves
improving fuel efficiency by 2% every year until 2050 and not letting CO2 emissions
increase after 2020, that applies to both developed and developing countries. Then in the
38th session of the Assembly in 2013, the ICAO decided to establish an emissions
reduction system that uses the market mechanism (emissions trading) within 2016 and
apply it from 2020. In the 39th session of the ICAO Assembly in 2016, 191 countries
agreed on a framework to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from international flights.
This agreement was made to prevent CO2 emissions by aircraft from increasing after
2020 and obliges each airline to purchase emissions credits for excess amount.
In 2017, the ICAO established a system to promote the agreement in the 2016
Assembly, the CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International
Aviation)*1. The reference CO2 emissions as of 2020 was defined*2 and each airline is
obliged to purchase emissions credits for the CO2 emissions above this reference value
after 2021.
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Trends in Traffic Volume (RTK)

and CO2 Emissions in Air Transportation
( Pax. + Cargo )
700 1150
RTK（ × 10 9 ton km : Int. + Dom. ）

CO2 Emissions （×10 6 ton : International ）
600 950
500 750
400 550
Manuf. industries and Others
Construction 18.4% 8.6%
300 350
Other Energy Road
Industry own use 18.2%
4.8% Transport
200 International 150
24.6%
Electriciry and Heat Aviation 1.8%
Production 41.7%
International
100 Marine 2.1% -50
その他
Share of CO2 Emissions (2018) others 2.6%
0 -250
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
円グラフはラベルオプションでリフレッシュさせる。「運輸24.6%」と2018年は手書き。
Source： IEA, ICAO, IATA
(*1: The CORSIA applies to international flights between participating countries and
does not apply to flights of which place of departure or arrival is not a
participating country, airlines whose CO2 emissions from international flights
are 10,000 tons or less per year, and emissions from aircraft with a maximum
take-off weight of 5.7 tons.)
(*2: The reference emissions based on which the amount of CO2 emissions credits to be
purchased after 2021 is determined by the average emissions in 2019 and 2020.)
The above regulation applies to international aviation. CO2 emissions on domestic

routes in each country are included in total emissions by country with the other domestic
industries and each country shall seek to reduce CO2 emissions on the government’s
responsibility toward the reduction target according to the Kyoto Protocol and the
subsequent Paris Agreement.
For exhaust gas regulations based on each aircraft size, the CO2 emissions standard
for aircraft was newly enacted as the Volume III to Annex 16 of the Convention on
International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention). This standard makes it obligatory to
keep an indicator based on the fuel consumption rate of aircraft below a certain value.
This standard applies to jet aircraft with a maximum take-off weight of over 5.7 tons and
propeller aircraft with a maximum take-off weight of over 8.6 tons. The standard takes
effect on the following dates and it is prohibited to manufacture new aircraft that do not
meet the requirements after the effective date.
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2022-2041
① January 1, 2020 for models newly developed for which a new type certificate is
applied for
(January 1, 2023 for jet aircraft with a maximum take-off weight of 60 tons or less
and a maximum seating capacity of fewer than 19 seats)
② January 1, 2023 for models currently in production for which a type change will be
applied for
③ January 1, 2028 for other aircraft that continue to be manufactured
Because the generation of CO2 directly corresponds to fuel combustion, constant

efforts to improve the fuel efficiency of aircraft that have been underway for some time
directly contribute to a reduction in CO2 emissions through a reduction in fuel
consumption. However, it has become clear that it is difficult to achieve the goals only
through technological innovations of airframe and engines as research on reducing CO2
emissions progresses. Therefore, research is being conducted toward the practical
application of SAF as an aviation fuel to replace fossil fuels, based on the concept of
carbon neutral. However, the low supply capacity and high prices have been pointed out
about SAF from the very beginning.
Various measures must be implemented together to achieve CO2 emissions reduction
goals. Besides improvement of fuel efficiency and utilization of alternative fuel,
prospective measures are reduction in taxi time, changes in takeoff climbing and gliding
approach patterns at airports using the GBAS to reduce fuel consumption. It is also
expected for the SBAS to shorten flight distances directly to reduce fuel consumption by
removing the constraints of island-based navigation systems, and use ocean flight paths
as great-circle routes.
Noise
Large-scale noise regulations were implemented multiple times from the mid 1980s
to the early 2000s to address noise problems around airports. The technological
innovations and generation changes in airplanes has been done through the replacement
of many passenger planes and freighters. Although aircraft that make much less noise
than in the past are widely used now, the noise problems still remain. Measures against
noise such as restrictions on take-off, landing, and night flights are implemented at
many major airports. Although the increase in number of flights and the flight of large
aircraft are required to keep up with the growth of air traffic volume, it is not easy to
relax the restrictions on take-off and landing at existing airports, expand airports, build
new airports etc. partly due to concerns about environmental deterioration around
airports. Under these circumstances, the ICAO adopted ‘Chapter 14’ noise standard,
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2022-2041
which is stricter than the previous standard, in the 38th session of ICAO Assembly in
August 2013. The new standard applies to aircraft for which a type certificate is applied
for after January 1, 2019*.
(*: The standard takes effect at the end of 2020 for aircraft with a maximum take-off
weight of less than 55 tons.)
5.2.7 Travel Demand
As data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) shows, income levels are
correlated with the number of times people travel. Demand for overseas travel* increases
in line with an increase in real GDP per capita.
(*: Overseas trips include land and sea travel as well in UNWTO data.)
10.00
Relationship between Income Level and
Trips Abroad* (1) (2015)
Trips abroad per capita per year
Hungary Switzerland
Germany Netherland
1.00 United Kingdom
Canada
New Zealand
Italia France Australia
Russia United States
Japan
0.10
China
Brazil
India ( * : Trips include land and sea routes)

0.01
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Source ： UN, IBRD, IHS
GDP per capita （2015US$）
10.00
Relationship between Income Level and
Trips Abroad* (2) (2015)
Trips abroad per capita per year
Czech
Republic U.K.
UK USA
1.00 Russia
France Frnace Japan
Russia Czech
0.10
S.Korea Colombia
Thailand Korea Japan U.S.
China India
0.01 China
Thailand
India
( * : Trips include land and sea routes)
0.001
0.00
0.001
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Source ： UN, IBRD, IHS GDP per capita （2015$US）

Sources: UN, IBRD, IHS
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2022-2041
As shown in the figure, in developed countries with a real GDP per capita of over
$20,000, the overseas travel demand changes moderately with changes in income levels.
Whereas, in emerging and developing countries with a real GDP per capita of around
$10,000, the overseas travel demand clearly rises sharply with an increase in income
levels.
This suggests that if income levels rise through an economic growth in future
particularly in emerging countries and regions with large populations where income
levels are still low, a large middle-income group will be formed and will greatly contribute
to increase air transportation demand. Currently, Southeast Asian countries, Southwest
Asian countries including India, and many African countries fall in this category. China
has also been in this group for a long time and has largely grown.
It is also pointed out that the fast growing model of developing country type will transit
qualitatively to the slow growing model of developed country type when the real GDP
per capita reaches around $10,000. Although developed countries are already passed this
range, Northeast Asian countries experienced the transition in the late 1990s. Now
(2019), the real GDP per capita of China has just reached $10,000. In other words, the
growth rate of RPK in China is likely to experience this transition after a short time and
then drop, although the country has contributed to the market growth with the high
growth rate. The real GDP per capita has just reached $10,000 in the Middle East region
and around $13,000 in Eastern Europe region where the growth rate of RPK is high with
the success of LCCs. Their future trends are worthy of attention.
The transition may happen gently and continuously at normal times, but could
instantaneously occur due to the impact of a political or economic incident. The transition
in Northeast Asia region was caused by the impact of the Asian currency crisis (1997).
In the world as it is today, things that can be the cause such as the U.S.-China economic
conflict and COVID-19 are occurring one after another.
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5.3 Study of RPK

5.3.1 Impact of Reduction in CO2 Emissions
We have experienced phenomena probably caused by global warming such as heat
waves, torrential rain, floods, and changes in agricultural products suitable for the
region around us. A reduction in CO2 emissions is recognized as an important matter to
prevent global warming and its destructive effects on people’s lives. The agreement based
on ICAO’s CORSIA obliges airlines to purchase CO2 emissions credits to promote CO2
emission reduction in the air transportation field as well. Once the application starts,
airlines must incur new costs, most of which are eventually born by passengers in the
form of airfare. This is likely to affect the growth of transport demand and aircraft
demand through a rise in yield. (Related Part: Section 5.2.6)
********************
Regarding the purchase of emissions credits, airlines do not have to purchase
emissions credits for CO2 emissions up to the reference amount specified based on the
past record up to 2020, but are obliged to purchase credits for the excess amount.
(Source: Carbon Markets Express)
The following are CO2 emissions and financial costs to purchase associated CO2
emissions credits for the next 20 years estimated by combining actual data released by
various organizations and the results* of the forecast of transportation demand and
aircraft demand made by the JADC.
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5.3.1.1 Forecast of CO2 emissions
CO2 (×10 6 ton) Air Traffic Volume* and CO2 Emissions

(*:RTK of passengers and freight, international and domestic flights) CO2 emissions in 2040
2000 assuming the efficiency
1970
of around 2018
1%/year
1980
1500
1990 CO2 emissions if the
efficiency is improved by
2000 2% every year
1000 2010
3.5%/year
2018 Amount for which

CO2 emissions in 2019
emissions credits must
500 be purchased (example
with an annual growth
rate of 2%)
RTK2040E
RTK (×10 9 ton km)
0 (Forecast RTK in 2040)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
RTK2019
(Sources: ICAO, IATA, IEA, JADC)
Actual values Studying the correspondence between the global air traffic volume (RTK,
which covers passengers and freight) and CO2 emissions, fuel efficiency has been
constantly improved ever since the 1970s and the slope that corresponds to the quotient
of annual CO2 emissions divided by the RTK has been shallowed over time. During this
time, the slope was very similar in the 1970s, 1990s and between 2013 and 2018, whereas
CO2 emissions barely increased even though the RTK increased between 2010 and 2013.
During this period, many old-generation aircraft retired and had been rapidly replaced
with new ones in response to the escalation of fuel costs. In contrast, the slope did not
shallow for the 10 years between 2000 and 2010.
Emissions forecast 1 By combining the line*, extrapolated from the line connecting the
point in 2018 (the latest actual value) and the origin, and the forecast value of global
transport demand (RTK) between 2018 and 2039 (horizontal axis), the CO2 emissions in
each year can be estimated on the extrapolated line in the case where the technical level
remains the same in future. (*: the slope the line (CO2 emissions divided by RTK)
corresponds to the technical level of fuel saving) As shown in the figure, annual CO2
emissions in 2040 are estimated to be 2.06 × 109 tons (navy blue line in the chart). The
chart also shows the transition of CO2 emissions in cases where the fuel efficiency is
improved by 1.0%, 2.0%, and 3.5% on annual average after 2018. According to the ICAO’s
CO2 emissions reduction plan, airlines are expected to reduce CO2 emissions by 2.0%
every year. If the fuel efficiency is improved by 3.5% every year, CO2 emissions will
hardly increase even if air traffic volume increases in the future.
Emissions forecast 2 The CO2 emissions have continued to decrease every year by
about -1.2% to -1.6% year-on-year for the past 6 years from 2013 to 2018 as a result of
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2022-2041

CO2 (×10 6 ton) Air Traffic Volume* and CO2 Emissions assuming the efficiency of
(*:RTK of passengers and freight, international and domestic flights) around 2018
2000 Extrapolation by the pace between
2013 and 2018
(corresponds to improvement by
0.6% every year on average)
1500 Forecast based on the demand forecast by JADC

(assuming improvement of fuel saving by 20%
at every generation change : corresponds to
improvement by 0.9%/yr on average for 20 yrs)
1000
2018
500
RTK2020 RTK2040E
RTK (×10 9 ton km) (forecast RTK in 2040)
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
RTK2021 RTK2019
airlines’ efforts including the effects of aircraft updates. If extrapolating the straight line
(from 2013 to 2018) assuming that this slope is maintained in the future, CO2 emissions
will be 1.81 × 109 tons in 2040. This means that the fuel efficiency will be improved by
0.63% per year on average for the next 20 years. (the green line in the chart on the next
page)
Emissions forecast 3 By combining the composition of passenger planes (number of

planes in service per model in each year) to be used by global airlines for the next 20
years that was obtained when forecasting demand for passenger planes shown in
Chapter 4 of this document and the fuel economy index per model*, the transition of CO2
emissions was estimated, including the effects of fuel efficiency improvement by
replacing old planes with new models during this period (e.g., 737NG → 737MAX →
successor model).
The chart shows the result on the presumption that the fuel economy is improved by
20% with every generation of aircraft as a result of technological progress in airframe
and engines (yellow line in the figure). This means that the fuel efficiency will be
improved on the long-term average of 0.90%/year for the next 20 years. Likewise, the
long-term average improvement rate is 0.77%/year and 1.03%/year, respectively, when
the improvement rate is 15% and 25%.
Airlines are expected to reduce CO2 emissions by 2% every year. Although the above-
mentioned effects of updating aircraft are anticipated to cover around 1% of the reduction,
additional measures are required to reduce the remaining amount. Possible measures
include the purchase of CO2 emissions credits and the use of SAF.
75
(*: Assumptions such as the EIS time, economic performance, and number of deliveries of
each model of aircraft are included.)
2022-2041
5.3.1.2 Purchase costs of CO2 emissions credits

Keeping CO2 emissions at the 2019 level in the future corresponds to emissions
reduction by about 3.5%/year on average. The amount exceeding 0.9 to 1.0%/year
mentioned above will probably be covered mainly by the use of alternative fuels (SAF:
sustainable aviation fuel) and the purchase of CO2 emissions credits. However, it is often
unclear about SAF, and the current manufacturing unit price of SAF is said to be two to
six times as high as the jet fuel used now*1. This fuel is not only expensive, but also
future price expectations are unclear. (*1: If fuel prices rise by six times from around
2019, airfare is expected to be more than double the current price.)
Global airlines will have to purchase CO2 emissions credits equivalent to 2.74 × 109
USD*2 in 2035 based on the purchase amount of CO2 emissions credits*2 estimated with
the condition of forecast 3 in the previous section (0.9%/year) on the assumption that
SAF is not used. Likewise, it is expected that airlines in Japan will have to pay 43 billion
yen*2 in 2035. The cumulative cost from 2021 to 2035 is anticipated to be 290 billion yen*2
and the cumulative cost until 2040 is anticipated to be 570 billion yen*2.
(*2: Calculated in 2015 USD. The dollar to yen rate is fixed to 105 yen/dollar for the
entire period.)
Each year Purchase amount of CO2 emission credits of Cumulative (2021 ~)

（×10^8 yen） (×10^8 yen)
Japanese airlines
800 6400
700 5600
600 4800
500 4000
400 3200
300 2400
200 1600
100 800
0 0
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Unit 2020 2030 2040

Reference CO2 emissions (purchase of 6
×10 CO2 ton 700 700 700
emissions credits not required)
Assumed price of
CO2 emissions credits
Euro/CO2 ton 25 30 45
As long as SAF is expensive, it is realistic to purchase emissions credits for the amount
short of the CO2 reduction target. However, given the future supply amount of emissions
credits and possible escalation of market price, the use of emissions credits may also
become unstable and the costs can further increase in the future.
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2022-2041
As mentioned above, airlines in Japan will eventually purchase CO2 emissions credits
equivalent to several tens of billions of yen a year. The price of CO2 emissions credits
could soar and the costs may continue to be endless. Therefore, it is sufficiently
meaningful to proactively conduct research and development regarding future costs as
current funds to reduce future costs rather than just continue to pay costs in the future.
For example, Japan has always imported oil, but can be an producer of SAF. SAF does
not depend on underground resources and so provides an opportunity to any country that
has the will and technological capabilities.
5.3.1.3 Estimation of the costs of CO2 emissions credits

The impact of the costs of CO2 emissions credits on RPK is estimated in this section
based on the study result in the previous section.
Since CO2 emissions and fuel consumption are one and the same, an equivalent fuel
price (and an equivalent crude oil price) is considered by adding the cost of purchasing
emission credits to the fuel price, and the projected yield is constructed based on this
price. The impact on RPKs was estimated by the projected yield. (Related Part:
Section 5.2.6)
Trends in Equivalent Crude Oil Price

Average Spot Price (2019US$/bbl.)
160
(Actual and forecast values based on the Brent crude oil prices) Brent Crude (real)
140
120 CO2 emission credit burden addition

100
IHS Brent (JADC 2022)
80
60
40
20
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source : EIA, IHS Markit
The equivalent crude oil prices to which the costs of CO2 emissions credits are added
will be about $58/bbl. in 2030 and about $62/bbl. in 2040. The amount added to the crude
oil prices at each time point is expected to be about $4/bbl. (up 7%) in 2030, and about
$9/bbl. (up 13%) in 2040. Based on the real Brent price, the price of around $60/bbl.
corresponds to the level of the period between 2015 and 2019 when crude oil prices
calmed down. Although at first glance this price level is not so expensive, it may in reality
be following the trend of the unit price for emissions credits.
Using these equivalent crude oil prices for forecast, the annual average growth rate of
RPK was estimated to drop by about 0.03% as shown in the table. Costs could increase
if in the future, the unit price for emissions credits rises, or more SAF is used.
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2022-2041
RPK growth rate

remarks
2020-2040 2020-2029 2030-2040
IHS Brent & JADC 2020 4.02% 4.29% 3.75% Standard model
recovered from COVID-
IHS Brent & JADC 2022 4.00% 4.24% 3.78% 19 & Oil prices stabilized

3.97% 4.22% 3.75%
+ Emissions rights burden
5.3.1.4 Estimation of the introduction costs of SAF (SAF: sustainable aviation fuel)
Major countries have accelerated their effort to reduce CO2 emissions with the goal of
almost halving the emissions by around 2030 and effectively achieving zero by around
2050. If the air transportation industry aims to reduce CO2 emissions at a similar pace,
the use of SAF is expected to be the core. In this section, we made an assumption about
the price of SAF and its gradually decreasing trend and estimated the impact of each
case on the growth of global RPK with the following assumptions.
- Future annual CO2 emissions from global airlines are calculated by multiplying the
RTK (passengers and freight) forecast in this document by the fuel consumption
efficiency in 2018.
- Effective CO2 emissions from the use of SAF corresponds to 20% of that from the same
amount of conventional fuel.
- SAF will be introduced to halve CO2 emissions in 2030 compared to that of 2019.
- The unit price of SAF will be $160 or $240/bbl. in 2025 (about double or triple the jet
fuel prices in 2019). After 2025, the price will gradually decrease at a rate of 0 to 4%
every year.
- By 2025, the use of SAF is sequentially increased while conventional fuel is mainly
used. Although SAF is still expensive, the escalation of equivalent fuel price is
prevented as a whole by using CO2 emissions credits as well.
SAF conversion rate Unit price of Fuels (USD/bbl.)

100% 180
90% 160
80% 140
70%
120
60%
100
50%
80
40%
60
30% SAF Equivalent Jet Fuel
20% 40
Crude Jet Fuel CO2 emission credit
10% 20
0% 0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
SAF will have to account for 80%*1 of the fuel consumption in 2030 under the above
assumptions. The upper right figure shows an example where the unit price of SAF will
reach $160/bbl. in 2025 and then gradually decrease by 3% every year. As the amount of
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SAF usage quickly increases until 2030, the equivalent fuel prices will also rise which is
the overall mean including SAF and conventional fuel. After 2030, the equivalent fuel
price will start to decline due to the slowdown of increase of the ratio of SAF in the total
fuel and the gradual decrease in unit price (3% per year).
(*1: This corresponds to 113% of the fuel consumption in 2019.)
Estimation of Equivalent Fuel Prices

( SAF + CO2 emission credits + conventional fuel based on the Brent crude oil price)
200 SAF240-0 (Gradual rate 0%)

SAF240-1 (Gradual rate 1%)

Brent Crude Oil Price
( Average Spot Price ) SAF240-4 (Gradual rate 4%)
100
50
0 Brent (IHS/JADC 2022)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Brent Crude (real)
Source : IHS Markit, JADC
Likewise, the equivalent crude oil prices (Brent base) calculated by the combination of
the unit prices of SAF in 2025 ($160 or $240/bbl.) and rates of decrease (0 to 4%) are
illustrated in the graph.
In the $160 group, the equivalent crude oil prices (real prices) in 2030 almost match
the price range from 2011 to 2014. In the $240 group, such equivalent crude oil prices
correspond to an unprecedented price range. In both groups, if the rate of decrease is
about 1%/year, the equivalent prices do not drop but remain high. The rate of decrease
must be at least 3%/year to make the prices drop after 2030.
RPK (×10 9) Estimated impact of SAF burden on RPK (via yield)

25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
with/after COVID‐19
160USD, 3%
5,000
240USD, 0%
no COVID‐19
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
( Assumptions such as halving CO2 emissions in 2030 from the current level would require a very strong reduction
in emissions in the future; since CO2 emission credits are not effective in reducing emissions truly, this section
assumes that CO2 reductions are based on SAF. )
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We estimated a rise in yield (a rise in airfares) through adoption of SAF based on the
current yield structure and estimated its impact on the growth of transport demand*2.
In the case of the initial unit price as of 2025 is $160 and the rate of decrease is 1%/year,
between 2025 and 2040, the total RPK integrated in the period decreases by 3.6% and
the average growth rate of RPK drops from 4.00% to 3.78%, compared with the case
where SAF is not introduced (principal value in this document). If the rate of decrease is
3%, the integral value of RPK decreases by 2.7% and the average growth rate drops to
3.87%. If the initial unit price is $240, the impact will be larger and the required rate of
decrease will increase accordingly. (*2: This only refers to the impact via airfare, and
does not include the impact via economy in general such as GDP.)
Initial unit price 2025 /bbl. 160 USD 160 USD 160 USD 240 USD 240 USD 240 USD YGR-5127 YGR-5102
diminishing rate (assumed) Principal
/year 1% 2% 3% 0% 2% 4% Standard
value of this
model
forecast
RPK integration 2025-2040 ×10^9 229,077 230,206 231,268 221,839 224,711 227,322 237,711 238,558
Comparison 96.4% 96.8% 97.3% 93.3% 94.5% 95.6% 100.0% 100.4%
Growth rate 2020-2040 /year 3.78% 3.83% 3.87% 3.58% 3.70% 3.80% 4.00% 4.00%
Growth rate 2025-2040 /year 3.97% 4.03% 4.08% 3.70% 3.85% 3.99% 4.25% 4.25%
Period
It is important to both keep the initial unit price low when SAF starts being used in
full swing and to subsequently gradually decrease the unit price every year to reduce the
impact on the air transportation demand and the transport industry while introducing
SAF. The prerequisite to realize them is to always ensure a sufficient supply of SAF for
the demand.
As a similar estimate, let’s assume that 10% of fuel will be SAF as of 2030.
The right chart below shows that the unit price of SAF will reach $160/bbl. in 2025
and then gradually decrease by 3% every year. As the amount of SAF usage mildly
increases until 2030, the rise of equivalent fuel prices which are the overall mean
including SAF and conventional fuel will not be noticeable. After 2030, the ratio of SAF
in the total fuel will finally begin to increase.
SAF conversion rate Unit price of Fuels (USD/bbl.)

100% 180
90% 160
80% 140
70%
120
60%
100
50%
80
40%
60
30% SAF Equivalent Jet Fuel
20% 40
10% 20
0% 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
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However, equivalent fuel prices will be about $86 at maximum along with the gradual
decrease in the unit price of SAF (3% per year in this forecast). This corresponds to
around $72 as equivalent crude oil prices.
Unit price of Fuels (USD/bbl.)

The chart on the right shows 180
Diminishing at 2%/year
the case for a decrease rate of 2%.
160
140
Equivalent fuel prices are 120

100
expected to increase to about $95 80
60
in about 2040. If the decrease rate 40
SAF Equivalent Jet Fuel
is lower than this, they will not 20
0
stop rising within the forecast 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
period, and if it is 1%, the equilibrium point is expected to be around $120.
Estimation of Equivalent Fuel Prices

( SAF + CO2 emission credits + conventional fuel based on the Brent crude oil price)


Brent Crude Oil Price
( Average Spot Price ) SAF240-4 (Gradual rate 4%)
100
50
0 Brent (IHS/JADC 2022)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Brent Crude (real)
Source : IHS Markit, JADC
In this case, if the SAF price decreases smoothly and gradually, the rise of equivalent
fuel prices is expected to fall within an acceptable range. However, if the ratio of SAF in
the total fuel is low, CO2 emissions will be only moderately controlled, and therefore, it
will be required to secure prescribed CO2 emissions (acceptable limit) while using other
measures. In addition, it is expected that depending on how much is achieved, airlines’
activities (ASK, etc.) may be restricted, which may affect transportation demand and the
creation of aircraft demand.
5.3.1.5 Estimation of Number of Deliveries of Passenger Jets

Here, the chart below shows the number of aircraft to be delivered within the forecast
period, obtained by replacing the annual average increase rate of CO2 emissions*1 with
the annual average growth rate of ASK to estimate aircraft demand corresponding to the
growth rate of ASK*2, on the assumption that CO2 emissions and ASK due to passenger
air transportation are proportional to each other.
(*1: Based on CO2 emissions in 2019).
(*2: Calculated by applying common values to all regions and all distance ranges).
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Changes in the number of passenger jets delivered

No. of delivered
due to ASK growth rate (stacked)
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
RJ NJ WJ
ASK growth rate
・ An ASK growth rate of 0% is expected to correspond to a case where, in order to fix

CO2 emissions, airlines’ future activities cannot grow while fixed at the ASK level of
2019.
・An ASK growth rate of 1% is expected to approximate to a case where the ASK can
grow in a range in which it is offset by a reduction in CO2 emissions (about 0.9% per
year: refer to Section 5.3.1.1), expected to be achieved if fuel efficiency is improved
smoothly by updating aircraft in the future.
・An ASK growth rate of 2% is expected to approximate to a case where the ASK can
grow in a range in which an increase in CO2 emissions is offset by the smooth
updating of aircraft, and the increasing use of SAF (1% per year, and a cumulative
total of around 10% in 2030).
・An ASK growth rate of 4% is expected to approximate to a case where the increase in
CO2 emissions is almost entirely offset by various means and the expected growth in
transportation demand (4%/year) from GDP and other sources is feasible.
In the case of an ASK growth rate of 4%, the number of deliveries in the next 20 years
is expected to be about 35,000, which will almost match the principal value in the
forecast of this report. The numbers of deliveries are expected to be about 23,000 and
about 29,000 in the cases of 2% and 3%, respectively, resulting in 12,000 to 16,000 fewer
aircraft than the 4% case (a 34% to 19% decrease), which raises a concern that there may
be some shrinkage of the industry. We believe that the rate should be as close to 4% as
possible with 2% as the lower limit by combining available measures to further reduce
CO2 emissions.
The air transportation industry has played a vital role in passenger and cargo
transportation, aircraft production, etc., in society, and in order to further secure its area
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of activities to play a role in the future, the industry is required to realize various
strategies such as further promotion of SAF usage, practical application of hydrogen-
powered passenger aircraft, etc., and for that purpose, the required capital must be
raised sufficiently and quickly.
5.3.2 RPK in the Middle East Region (Slowdown in the Long-Distance Range)
Airlines in the Middle East have adopted aggressive expansion policies particularly
since around 2003, and have captured the demand of long-distance transit passengers
through “the sixth freedom of the air.” As the RPK has quickly expanded the scale at an
annual growth rate of well above 10% and even above 20% for a while mainly in the long-
distance range (4,500 km or longer), they have procured many wide-body passenger
planes and have driven the market. However, when crude oil prices dropped after the
autumn of 2014, the growth rate quickly decreased. The growth rate of RPK dropped to
2.3% (IATA, total in all the distance ranges) in 2019.
In this JADC forecast, calculations were performed on the assumption that the growth
rate of RPK even in the Middle East market, after the rapid growth of RPK of market
redivision type ceased, will be close to the growth rate of the entire global market. The
forecast shows that the number of deliveries of passenger planes for the next 20 years
will be smaller than that shown in the past forecast by the JADC. Airlines have already
canceled or postponed orders, reviewed models, and made other adjustments. And the
airlines also aim to use existing aircraft longer, the number of deliveries of passenger
planes could further decrease mainly in large wide-body jets depending on the actual
change in the growth rate in the future.
********************
The RPK of airlines in the Middle East differ in characteristics between the short-
distance range (up to 1,000 km) to the medium-distance range (up to 4,500 km) and the
long-distance range (4,500 km or longer). Both the past rapid expansion and sharp
slowdown occurred in the long-distance range.
The figure below shows the RPK in the long-distance range estimated by the JADC.
For example, the average growth rate was 17.3%, much higher than the global average
growth rate of RPK, which was 5.2%, between 2004 and 2014. This suggests that most
of the growth did not result from market growth, but redivision of existing air
transportation demand among airlines. This sort of growth will saturate and rely on the
market growth rate when they eventually dominate the whole market share even if
carried out perfectly.
And, since the fall of 2014, the growth rate of RPK in this distance range has been
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declining as if in line with the decline in crude oil prices, with an average of 4.1% from
2016 to 2019 and 2.0% in 2019. The average growth rate in the long-distance range after
COVID-19 calms down is assumed to be 3.2% for the forecast.
RPK (Bil.) Long Range Traffic Forecast - M.East

10000
History Forecast
17.3% 3.2%
1000
100
10
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
(Actual and forecast RPK in the long-distance range:

The future growth rate is assumed to be higher than the actual value in 2019).
RPK (Bil.) Medium Range Traffic Forecast - M.East

10000
History Forecast
1000
4.3%
100
10
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
(Actual and forecast RPK in the medium-distance range:

The market characteristics are different from the long-distance range).
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No. of Passenger Jets

RPK Average Growth Active Fleet
to be delivered
Long at the end of
All Ranges RJ NJ WJ Total
Range Forecast
Two-preceding
Forecast 6.02 % 6.46 % 60 880 1,410 2,350 2,654
2018-2037
Forecast
3.66 % 3.21 % 34 1,038 1,055 2,127 2,441
2022-2041
The results of correlation analysis between the RPK and the GDP or yield in the medium-
(2,000 to 4,500 km) and shorter-distance ranges suggest that residents in the Middle
East region mainly use flights in these distance ranges. No RPK bending has been
observed so far. By analyzing the actual RPK, GDP, and yield values for the past 20 years
or so and forecasting the future RPK using the forecast future GDP and yield values
based on this data, the annual average growth rate is expected to be 5.0% in the medium-
distance range, for example, after the COVID-19 pandemic ends. The average growth
rate of RPK of the airlines in the Middle East is expected to be 3.66% for the next 20
years in all the distance ranges including the long-distance range as well.
5.3.3 RPK in the China region (Transition to the Moderate Growth Model)
Airlines in China (CH) have rapidly grown mainly in the short- and medium-distance
ranges (up to 4,500 km). With an average growth rate of RPK for the past 20 years that
reached 12.4%, China is one of the pillars that supports the global aircraft demand.
However, the growth rate dropped to 8.1% in 2019. Besides, the GDP per capita has just
reached $10,000 in China and the future RPK is expected to transit* from the fast
growing model of a developing country type to the slow-growing model of a developed
country type during the forecast period. (*: Related Part: Section 5.2.7)
For this forecast, we assume that $13,000 in 2024 is an inflection point with reference
to the actual transition that has already happened in other region and that the
subsequent growth rate will be close to the global average. As a result, the number of
aircraft deliveries for the next 20 years decreased from the previous forecast by about
900. This qualitative change may progress drastically due to some external political or
economic impact. The transition is expected to happen early during the forecast period
(from 2022 to 2041), though what will trigger the transition in China is unknown.
********************
Although the transition is expected to happen after the GDP per capita in the region
exceeds $10,000, the GDP per capita in China has just reached $10,000 in 2019 and the
transition has not yet occurred. We used the Northeast Asia (NE) region* whose actual
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data is available and that is economically closer as a model to estimate the time of the
transition. (*: The Northeast Asia region here refers to Taiwan and South Korea.)
The figure below shows the RPK (including all the distance ranges) and the actual
GDP per capita in the NE region. As the figure shows, the region experienced the
transition when the GDP per capita was around $13,000. The growth rate of RPK in the
region dropped from the previous high value to about 4%/year after the transition period
and stabilized. The transition occurred for a short period due to the strong impact of the
Asian currency crisis in 1997 that decreased not only the RPK but also the GDP.
For this forecast, we estimate that the transition occurs when the GDP per capita
reaches around $13,000 based on the actual example in the Northeast Asia region and
applied this estimation to the forecast value of the GDP of China to conclude that the
transition will occur in 2024.
Although it is unknown whether this transition will be rapid or moderate, the
transition is likely to proceed early during the forecast period (2022–2041).
This forecast assumes that the transition proceeds for a short period and that the
average growth rate of RPK after the transition is on the same level as the global average.
In addition, the transition is presumed to affect all the distance ranges in the same way.
No. of Passenger Jets

RPK Average Growth Active Fleet
to be delivered
Post- at the end of
All Periods RJ NJ WJ 計
Transition Forecast
Previous
Forecast 5.66 % − 187 4,568 2,286 7,041 8,433
2019-2038
Forecast
4.51 % 3.72 % 269 4,706 1,197 6,172 7,652
2022-2041
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RPK ( 10^9 ) NE GDP per Cap. ~ RPK

250
200
Asian currency
150 crisis (1997)
100
50
Sources: ICAO, IATA, IHS
0
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
GDP per Capita (2015USD)
RPK
NE growth rate in the NE region
RPK 成長率（前年比）
(year-on-year)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
‐10%
‐20%
Sources: ICAO, IATA
‐30%
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Development
CHのGDP of GDP per （実績と推移：2015USD）
per Capitaの推移 Capita in China
(Actual and Forecast values, in 2015USD)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Source: IHS
0
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
2041
2044
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Intentionally Blank
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6 Factors Related to Air Transportation
6.1 Changes in the Airline Industry
6.1.1 Mergers
Although numerous emerging airlines entered into the airline industry where competition became
much more open from the 1980s as a result of deregulation, this led to over competition. When the
industry briefly regained balance, the number of airlines in the U.S. was actually smaller than that
before the deregulation due to companies merging or closing down.
A merger is often an effective measure for airlines. A merger is useful as a measure against over
competition and abrupt changes in external loads such as escalation of fuel costs. In addition,
absorbing the flight authorizations for routes, arrival and departure slots at airports, usage rights for
airport facilities, and other properties of the merged airlines has large effects and very quick impact in
expanding their network and market share. An example is Pan American Airways, which sold its
Pacific and Latin American routes to United Airlines and its European routes to Lufthansa in the mid-
1980s before it finally went bankrupt in 1991.
Recently, Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines (2008), United Airlines and Continental Airlines
(2010), and American Airlines and US Airways (2013) merged in the U.S. As a result of these mergers
and integrations, the U.S. airline industry is now becoming increasingly oligopolistic. These 3 biggest
airlines and the largest LCC, Southwest Airlines, which absorbed ATA Airlines and AirTran Airways
in the 2000s, accounted for 78% of the ASK in the U.S. domestic market (2018). Meanwhile, many
prestigious airlines founded before World War II disappeared.
Similar airline reorganization is also under way in Europe and Latin America.
Although mergers have happened as effective measures in this way, they now face risks related to
antimonopoly laws as consolidation proceeds. In addition, foreign investment regulations apply to
investment in foreign airlines and mergers with them. Foreign companies are usually not allowed to
have more than 50% of the stocks with some exceptions, which is why international mergers are rare.
In this context, airlines have established global alliances since the 1990s.
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6.1.2 Alliances
Currently, there are three well-known major alliances: Star Alliance (founded in 1997, 26 member
airlines*1), Oneworld (founded in 1998, 14 member airlines*1) and Skyteam (founded in 2000, 19
member airlines*1) in the world (*1: as of April 2021).
These alliances have seamlessly laid out their network across the world by mutually connecting the
route networks of each member company and are trying to increase the number of members. Within
the network, the alliances have improved passenger convenience through efforts such as code sharing,
mutual use of airport lounges, through baggage check-in for transit passengers, and integration of
mileage programs among member airlines to further attract customers and each airline tries to provide
standardized services for passengers, meeting the service level of the alliance. In addition, joint
purchase of equipment, etc. has been carried out, and joint purchase of aircraft is also being considered
in some airlines.
An alliance is similar to a merger in that a large route network is built. However, because they are
not associated with management integration or control, they are likely to be exempt from foreign
investment regulations and antimonopoly laws and they make it easier to expand the network*2.
(*2: Although some may establish joint ventures (JV), which are one step beyond code sharing, JVs
mean deeper management integration and are often not authorized by the antimonopoly law
regulatory agency.)
As of 2016, the member airlines of the 3 major alliances account for 59% of the RPK and 64% of
the operating revenue of the IATA member airlines.
As described above, most airlines have joined an alliance in terms of business scale. In addition, as
the member airlines of the same alliance are gathered at the same terminal to make transit more
convenient at some airports, the benefits of joining an alliance seem to be increasing. However, some
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airlines are going against the tide. For example, Emirates Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines note the
disadvantages of joining an alliance and are trying to expand their network and improve convenience
on their own and Etihad Airways finances other companies and takes them in as equity partners.
In addition, although partnerships including code sharing were initially supposed to stay within
alliance member airlines, some alliance member companies have recently started sharing codes with
airlines in other alliances.
In 2016, the first LCC alliance called Value Alliance (currently, five member airlines) was
founded mainly in the Southeast Asia region. The functions of this alliance are very limited
compared with the 3 major alliances, this alliance is said to provide transit reservations, through
ticketing, and reservation of ancillary services between member airlines as well. This is noteworthy
because LCCs that only cover short-distance routes up to about 2,000 km can establish a wide-range
network without largely changing their business models if things go well.
6.1.3 LCC
A recent trend in the airline industry is the rise of LCCs. There are two types of LCCs, independent
LCCs and LCCs that are subsidiaries of full-service airlines. And many LCCs that have successfully
established and continued business are so-called Southwest clones.
The efforts that Southwest Airlines made after the Deregulation are considered to have created the
first LCC business model. Congestion at large airports worsened due to security enhancement after
the terror attacks in 2001 is said to have partly contributed to today’s rise of LCCs. Although LCCs
had still small presence at that time, passengers who got sick of the temporal and physical burdens of
the pre-boarding procedure including strict security checks after the terror attacks at large, crowded
airports took an interest in LCCs that provide flights at secondary airports that are less crowded. As a
result, despite its casual service, it gained popularity for its ease of use combined with its simple flight
style, and it is believed that LCCs were rapidly gaining recognition in American society during this
period. LCCs also appear to have had the character of a new mode pushed out by economic and social
shocks.
Besides North America, a liberalization framework was also established in Europe after 1993 and
the spread and rise of LCCs have been reported in various regions since the 2000s. LCCs were also
founded in Japan and Taiwan, which had been called the blank area of LCCs, in 2012. In addition,
many LCCs were founded in emerging countries in line with the progress of aviation liberalization.
As shown in the figure, in 2019, LCCs supplied over 30% of the available seats of whole airlines even
in Europe and the U.S., where income levels are high. They show a particularly high proportion of the
seat supply in regions with relatively low income levels such as South Asia (mainly India). This
suggests that low airfares offered by LCCs are suitable for exploring air transportation demand in these
regions.
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Change in Proportion of LCCs in Seating Capacity

70
2007
Proportion of LCCs in seating capacity (%)
60
2019
50
40
30
20
10
0 North Western Eastern Japan China North- South- South Oceania Middle Latin Africa CIS World
America Europe Europe east east Asia East America
Asia Asia
Source：Cirium, OAG, JADC
Characteristics of LCC flights include single model (or family), narrow body (fuel-efficient) jet,
many seats (high seat-density), frequent flights, and no-frills services. LCCs seem to realize many of
these characteristics by only offering short-distance flights (i.e., short time flights).
Although some LCCs have started offering long-distance flights after gaining a certain share of
short-distance flights, few have clearly succeeded. However, there are many cases where the route is
suspended soon after it is opened, and cases where the business condition goes dark.
This is not only attributed to the procurement costs of long-distance aircraft. Providing medium to
long flights probably disrupts the core of the LCC business model that has been specialized for short
flights.
A drop in utilization* is another example. One of the prerequisites for the success of medium- and
long-distance LCCs is to improve utilization by using aircraft more efficiently. ZIPAIR, founded in
2020 as a medium- and long-distance LCC, combines a long-distance flight between Narita and
Bangkok and a short-distance flight between Narita and Inchon and is worthy of attention as one of
such measure.
(*: Utilization here means how many hours per day a passenger aircraft is flying.)
Establishment of the first LCC alliance, Value Alliance, in 2016 is also noteworthy. LCCs operating
in the Southeast Asia region will work together via the alliance to provide services including transit
reservation and through ticketing. If this alliance gets into gear, each LCC could perhaps also provide
effective medium- to long-distance transportation services for passengers with smooth transit, while
maintaining the business model dedicated to short-distance routes.
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fewer Spare airplanes

lower Airplane unit price
Limiting the range of Single Model or lower Training costs
route distance → Single Family → lower Maintenance costs
lower Related investments
Vital !
→ Narrow Body Jet → lower Fuel costs
Short Range Compromizing on （low Drag）
↓ comfort
Short Time → High Density → more Seats
（No. of seats）（per Airplane）
→ no frills → lower Beverage costs

Loading food and drink
Having crew take
Cabin cleaning charge or → less ground → lower Labor costs low cost, low fare
abolishing works workers ↓
Cargo loading low margin and
short TAT Operating → more Flights → more Passengers high turnover
Taxiing more frequently （availability）（Airline overall） ↑
larger scale
→ higher Utiliｚation → more capital turnover capital efficiency
Independent company （Slots）

Point to Point → Secondary less Landing fee → lower cost LCC !
no Network connection airport Facility usage fee
(not crowded) （Ground side conditions）
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6.2 ETOPS
6.2.1 Establishment of ETOPS
In the past, twin-engine aircraft were not allowed to fly in airspaces 60 or more minutes away from
the nearest airfield where they could make an emergency landing at a speed with one engine stopped.
However, with the improvement of engine reliability and other improvements, aircraft have been
allowed to fly in airspaces more than 60 minutes from the nearest airfield since 1985 on the condition
that the aircraft and airlines satisfy certain conditions. This standard is called ETOPS.
First, a 75-minute exception was made for the A300 in 1977. Then, the ETOPS system started when
AC120-42 took effect as an exceptional authorization of FAR 121.161 in 1985. The first ETOPS
(ETOPS-120) rating was given to the 767 in 1986. Then, ETOPS-180 was provided in AC120-42A
(1988) and aircraft such as the 757 and 767 were rated for ETOPS-180. In addition, the concept of
assigning an ETOPS rating before entry into service started in 1995.
As a result, in the 20 years since 1985 ETOPS-180 became the mainstream. If aircraft can fly with
ETOPS-180 rating, twin-engine aircraft can fly across most airspaces in the world including oceans.
So, now, multi-engine aircraft are rarely required.
ETOPS largely affected the fate of twin-, three-, and four-engine aircraft and airlines’ procurement
trend of aircraft.
Although ETOPS like concepts are known by several names, ETOPS is the most common. EDTO
is not intended to replace ETOPS.
6.2.2 From Multi-Engine Aircraft to Twin-Engine Aircraft

In 1964*, three-engine aircraft were excluded from the conventional 60-minute rule (FAR 121.161)
and were allowed to fly in airspaces 60 minutes or more away from an airfield regardless of the aircraft
size. As a result, three-engine aircraft were able to fly on long-distance routes including over oceans
like four-engine aircraft. This largely increased the degree of operation freedom. Because three-engine
aircraft were also able to fly over oceans where twin-engine aircraft were not, the 727 became the
bestselling product and the L-1011 and the DC-10 opened an era of wide body jet with the 747 as
aircraft for North America transcontinental routes and long-distance ocean routes. Some call this
period as the era of three-engine aircraft. (*: The 727 entered into service in 1964.)
However, when ETOPS started in 1985, a group of new twin-engine aircraft that had just been
launched quickly replaced existing three-engine aircraft because of the higher economic performance
of twin engines, the new engines, two pilots, and other features. On Atlantic routes on which ETOPS
was initially applied, ETOPS flights quickly increased after 1985. The number of twin-engine aircraft
flights exceeded the total number of three- and four-engine aircraft flights in 1991 and reached double
their number in 1997. Partly because new three-engine aircraft of just the right size were not available,
this trend became firmly established in just five years or so. The supply of new three-engine aircraft
ended when the MD-11 was discontinued in 2000. In addition, as the importance of three-engine
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aircraft dropped, the ETOPS system started applying to three- and four-engine aircraft in 2007 and
multi-engine aircraft lost their institutional advantage over twin-engine aircraft.
Twin-engine aircraft from small aircraft (the 737 and the A320) to large aircraft (the 777)
complied with ETOPS before around 2000. With the launch of the 777, the 747 was no longer
ordered (by 2002, passenger model) and had begun to retire in earnest. Four-engine aircraft projects
following the 747 did not proceeded as expected. As the A340 was already discontinued (2012) and
both the A380 and the 747 were set to be discontinued by 2022, the era of four-engine aircraft seems
to be coming to an end.
Airspaces corresponding to ETOPS-60

(60 minutes, 400 nm)
There remain areas where aircraft cannot fly not

only over ocean, but also over land. Whereas
twin-engine aircraft were bounded by this 60-
minute rule before ETOPS, the rule did not apply
to three- and four-engine aircraft.
ETOPS-120 (120 minutes, 800 nm)
The areas where twin-engine aircraft can fly

have largely expanded including Atlantic routes
between the U.S. and Europe, Pacific routes
between Japan and the U.S., and the Kangaroo
Route. However, Arctic routes were still out of
reach. The routes between Hawaii to the U.S.
mainland and those between Australia and the
U.S. mainland were not covered, either.
ETOPS-180 (180 minutes, 1200 nm)
Twin-engine aircraft can fly in most areas and on

most routes both over land and ocean.
(The figures are taken from ICAO data.

Blue indicates areas where aircraft cannot fly.)
Comparison of Area where Aircraft Can Fly according to ETOPS
95
ETOPS
(minutes）
370 370min.
A350-900 (before EIS)
EASA
330 330min. 330min. 330min.

777 787 747-8
FAA FAA FAA
285 285min. 285min.
Early ETOPS / ETOPS before entry into

service means that aircraft can be rated for
ETOPS up to 180 minutes upon its EIS if
certain requirements are satisfied.
240 Early ETOPS gradually became widespread 240min.

after 1995. A330/EASA (A330-900 option) (A330-800 option)
207 207min.
FAA Early ETOPS 777(3 companies in NA)
AC120-42A took effect EPL20-1(FAA)
180 180 180 180min. 180min. 180min. 180min. 180min. 180min. 180min.
767/AA etc. 757/ A300-600 777/FAA 767/ANA/JCAB A320/319/321 A330-900/EASA A330-800/EASA
A330/EASA EASA A220/EASA
96
AC120-42
120 120 120min. 120min.
767/TWA etc. 757/ 767/ANA
737/Aloha JCAB
75 75min. Exception
A300,Eastern Airlines etc.
60 '85, Took effect as exceptional authorization of AC120-42B
'52, FAR 121.161 AC120-42: FAR 121.161.
Twin-engine aircraft and '64, three-engine aircraft ETOPS also applies to
excluded three- and four-engine
three-engine aircraft (Trend particularly on Atlantic routes)
Within 60 minutes (The B727 entered into aircraft from 2007.
service in the same year) ETOPS flights quickly increased after 1985.
'91, the number of flights of twin-engine aircraft exceeded
the total of those of three- and four-engine aircraft.
10 '97, The number of flights of twin-engine aircraft reached
double the total of three- and four-engine aircraft.
'50 '51 '52 '53 '54 '55 '56 '57 '58 '59 '60 '61 '62 '63 '64 '65 '66 '67 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72 '73 '74 '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30
'78 Deregulation
'73 Oil Crisis '79 2nd Oil Crisis '86 Collapse of OPEC
FAA noise regulation (until 1985) 707, DC-8, 727
Development of A310EIS
Developmen
t of DC-9 DC-9 EIS 767 started. 767EIS A300-600EIS
started. MD merged 751-340 draft was 757EIS '87 A340 and A330 ’93 A340 EIS '12 A340 discontinued
confirmed. Development started
’66 AA requested (twin-engine aircraft) ↓ ↓ ↓
Development started '68 '71 DC-10 EIS '89 DC-10 discon.
Development started '68 '72 L-1011 EIS '81 L-1011 discon. '90 MD-11 EIS '00 MD-11 discon.
’90 737-300 acquired ETOPS ’99 737-700 acquired ETOPS

'64 727 EIS '84 727 discon. ('85 ETOPS) for the first time. for the first time.
'68 737 EIS ’85 737CFMI EIS '98 737NG EIS
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'86 737-200 ETOPS

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ETOPS (ExTended OPerationS)

DT: Can be 180 minutes or longer
Subject: Twin-, three-, and four-engine aircraft
ETOPS (Extended Twin OPerationS)

ETOPS (Extended Twin OPerationS) Subject: Twin-engine aircraft
DT: Up to 180 minutes
Subject: Twin-engine aircraft only
LROPS (Long Range OPerationS)
Subject: Three- and four-engine aircraft
EDTO
(Extended Diversion Time Operations)
Subject: Twin-, three-, and four-engine
aircraft
Names for “ETOPS”
6.3 Infrastructure
Building of infrastructure including air routes, airspace control, and airports is critical to the
development of air transportation.
6.3.1 Development of Air Routes

~ North Pole Route or Northbound Flights to Europe
The route connecting Asia and Europe used to be operated as the southbound European route via
the Middle East and India. It was also a detour to avoid flying over the communist bloc, but it was far,
time consuming and costly.
Once Scandinavian Airlines System (SAS) successfully developed the grid navigation and opened
the North Pole route in 1957, this route had frequently used until the beginning of the 1990s. Japan
Airlines also started the northbound European flights using the DC-8-33 and the grid navigation in
1961, which reduced the required time by about 11 hours compared to the southbound flight. (The
flight time between Japan and the U.K. was shortened from about 30 hours to about 19 hours.)
Route
On this route, Anchorage was used as a relay
point throughout the Cold War as part of a
detour to avoid flying over the Soviet Union.
Both passenger planes and freighters were
refueled here. On the route departing from
Japan, both the Pacific route to the United
States and the European route were refueled
and branched here.
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Grid navigation
Practical application of grid navigation made it possible to open the North Pole route. Although grid
navigation required research and development of dedicated equipment and techniques*1, the
pioneering efforts of SAS put it into practical use and the North Pole route was opened in 1957.
Because a normal magnetic compass is not usable in the polar zones, a gyrocompass and the polar grid
map were used as alternative measures in grid navigation. Because drift occurred due to the accuracy
of manufacturing or bearings, and errors gradually accumulated even though a high rotation speed
gyrocompass was used, pilots used to fly planes while correcting for the errors based on celestial
observation. (*1: Survival equipment in case of emergency landing was included in addition to navigation equipment.)
In 1958, in the year following the opening of the North Pole route by SAS, the first-ever nuclear
submarine, SSN-571 Nautilus, successfully entered the Arctic Ocean from the Bering Strait, reached
the North Pole while still submerged, and exited to the Europe side. Nautilus used an INS for
submersible navigation without using radio waves or celestial observation.
Grid navigation also had disadvantages such as the need for celestial observation and complex
calculations and fell into disuse as navigation with an INS became popular*2. However, the pioneering
efforts by SAS that opened a new route and changed the movement of people and cargo are impressive.
(*2: Japan Airlines introduced the INS for the first time in 1970 with the 747.)
The North Pole route, which was explored by SAS with grid navigation, continued to be used for
more than 30 years while navigation systems were being changed. Because Russia granted permission
to fly through their airspace for a fee in the 1990’s, the routes via Anchorage gradually fell into disuse.
However, these routes may be used again and aircraft suitable for the route may come to be needed
depending on future changes in international situations.
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6.3.2 Airport Changes in Number of Incoming and

Outgoing Passengers by Airport
Europe, the U.S., and Japan are
Number of incoming and outgoing passengers

currently establishing next-
generation flight control systems to
(million/year)
use airspaces efficiently, mitigate
congestion, and improve economic
performance.
Major airports in each country
Amsterdam
Dubai
Istanbul
Denver
Los Angeles
London - Heathrow
Atlanta
Beijing
Tokyo - Haneda
Chicago
Hong Kong
Dallas - Fort Worth

Guangzhou
Frankfurt
Jakarta
Singapore
Inchon
Shanghai
New Delhi
Paris
have already been faced with delays
due to airport congestion and
shortage of arrival and departure
slots that hinders the increase of Changes in Amount of Cargo by Airport
flights and opening of new routes.

Delays of 30 minutes to one hour
Cargo amount (million tons)
have already become an everyday

affair during peak times at many
major airports around the world.
Eurocontrol forecasts that the
delay time per flight will increase
from 8.8 minutes in 2012 to 14.2
Amsterdam
Anchorage (*1)
Dubai
Taipei
London - Heathrow
Los Angeles
Tokyo - Narita
Frankfurt
Hong Kong
Chicago
Seoul - Inchon
Singapore
Beijing
Doha
Canton
Shanghai
Louisville
Memphis
Paris
Miami
minutes in 2035 in 28 EU countries

and that the total amount of loss of *1) Some 2010 data was not available.
passengers’ time value due to these Changes in Number of Take-Offs and Landings
by Airport
delays will expand from 4 billion
euros in 2012 to 13.4 billion euros in
Number of take-offs and landings
2035.
(million times/year)
Infrastructure building including

the construction of new airports,
expansion of runways and aircraft
parking aprons at existing airports,
and extension and renovation of
Amsterdam
Denver
London - Heathrow
Guangzhou (*1)
Istanbul (*1)
Los Angeles
Las Vegas
Shanghai (*1)
Atlanta
Chicago
Dallas - Fort Worth
Frankfurt
Beijing
Charlotte
Toronto
San Francisco
Tokyo - Haneda
Houston
Mexico City
Paris
airport terminal facilities are required

to prevent such delays. However, this
not only takes a large amount of *1) Some 2010 data was not available.
money and time, but because
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environment awareness has recently risen, it is also necessary to obtain consent from neighborhood
residents about noise and air pollution around the airport.
In this way, infrastructure building tends to fall behind the curve even though a long-term approach
to infrastructure building is strongly desired to address the future growth of air transportation demand.
In order to satisfy transportation demand with a limited number of arrival and departure slots in this
situation, airlines have gradually switched their planes to that with more seats, within the family of
their passenger planes, to increase the number of passengers per flight (per plane). Therefore, the
number of seats per flight (per plane) is on the increase as a whole and large wide body jet that are
usually used for long-distance international flights are often operated even on short-distance routes if
transportation demand is particularly large. Aside from that, it has become common to actively use
secondary airports around crowded large airports to distribute the departure and arrival load. One
example of that is LCCs.
6.3.3 Navigation and Routes

The current air traffic system is facing challenges such as delays due to traffic volume beyond its
capacity, constraints on flights resulting from inflexible operation of airspaces and routes, and an
increase in workload on flight control officers and pilots. To address these challenges, the International
Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) put together the operation concept of ATM (air traffic
management) and presented its future vision toward 2025 in 2003 and then continuously requested the
promotion of action planning, necessary research and development, and other efforts in regions,
countries, and industries using the ATM operation concept as guidelines again in the ICAO Assembly
in 2007. Taking this opportunity, SESAR created a future vision (ATM master plan) in Europe and
NextGen created a future vision in the U.S. in 2008. In Japan, CARATS created a roadmap to realize
CARATS in 2011. This section describes navigation and flight practices, routes, and flight paths.
SESAR (Single European Sky Atm Research)
NextGen (Next Generation Air Transportation System)
CARATS (Collaborative Actions for Renovation of Air Traffic Systems)
Flight practices
An example of flight practices already in use is RNAV.
Passive flight Autonomous flight
Positioning and calculation
Technological
innovation
VOR/DME, GPS, etc.
The aircraft receives radio waves from ground Because the aircraft measures its position based on signals
facilities such as VOR/DME and flies toward the from VOR/DME, GPS, etc. and makes calculations based
on that data, flight courses and other settings can be flexibly
source of the radio waves. specified.
The flight depends on navigation equipment and The flight depends on navigation performance
ground facilities. Navigation support facilities are (precision). Navigation support facilities are not
identified. identified.
Navigation principles of RNAV (Source: https://www.mlit.go.jp/koku/15_bf_000379.html)

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The navigation system before RNAV largely depended on the precision of the aeronautical
navigation aid facilities in that aircraft fly along the path set with radials from VOR or the final
approach path instructed by the ILS, for example. Therefore, aircraft had to be equipped with receivers
for each navigation aid facility and satisfy requirements such as high category operation using the ILS
as needed.
In contrast, with RNAV, aircraft fly an arbitrary path consisting of way points and other elements,
identifying its own location as latitude and longitude by using the GNSS, VOR/DME, and INS, IRS,
and other sensors. This enables efficient use of airspaces through flexible path setting, safety
improvement, meeting increasing air transportation demand, enhancement of operation efficiency and
in-service rate, and reduction in environmental load.
RNAV (Area Navigation) VOR (VHF Omnidirectional Radio range)
ILS (Instrument Landing System) GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System)
VOR/DME (Distance Measuring Equipment)
INS (Inertial Navigation System) IRS (Inertial Reference System)
In Japan, RNAV evaluation operation at Enroute was carried out in 1992, departure / arrival method
(route) evaluation operation using FMS was carried out at Hakodate Airport and Kumamoto Airport
in 1997. And the RNAV approach method has been put into operation at 4 airports (Shin-Chitose,
Hakodate, Hiroshima, Naha) in 2005.
For reference, during general RNAV flight, an airborne system monitors navigation performance
but does not have a function to issue an alert to the pilot if the required navigation performance may
not be satisfied. However, RNP (required navigation performance) such as RNP10 and RNP4 is a sort
of RNAV flight with an airborne system that monitors navigation performance and has a function to
issue an alert to the pilot if required navigation performance may not be satisfied.
As a revised version of “RNAV Roadmap (2007, version 2),” the “New Roadmap for RBM
Introduction and Deployment Plan (Draft)” sets nationwide deployment of RNAV and RNP paths as
a short-term goal (by FY2024), promotion of satellite navigation (adoption of RNP) in all flight phases
as a mid-term goal (by FY2030), and realization of TBO (realization of satellite navigation in all flight
phases including the time axis) as a long-term goal (from FY2031). Among them, consideration of
advanced RNP in areas around airports starts as a high precision RNP including the time axis in 2024.
Overseas examples of RNAV introduction include the RNP-AR approach method at Los Angeles
airport in the U.S. and the RNP to ILS approach method at Charles de Gaulle airport in France and
Bremen airport in Germany. RNP-AR (Required Navigation Performance Authorization Required)
RNP to ILS (Required Navigation Performance to Instrument Landing System)
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Flight paths
There are four types of ocean flight paths: ሺ1ሻ fixed path, ሺ2ሻ variable path, ሺ3ሻ UPR, and ሺ4ሻ DARP.
An efficient flight path is set using RNP navigation.
(1) Fixed path
Fixed paths have been used as air routes for a long time. Examples include Fukuoka FIR (flight
information region) in the airspace controlled by Japan and the NOPAC (North Pacific) path at the
northern edge of Anchorage FIR controlled by the U.S. A horizontal control interval is ensured
between each path. These paths are important air routes between Asia and North America.
(2) Variable path
Variable paths are set based on daily weather forecasts. An example in the Pacific Ocean is the
PACOTS (pacific organized track system) path. Variable paths are set by an air traffic control
organization based on the weather forecast about 24 hours before flights.
(3) UPR (User Preferred Route)
UPRs are set to each aircraft. The operator considers the aircraft model, takeoff weight, flight time,
fuel consumption, and weather forecast of each flight and sets the optimal path. UPRs may be
different even between flights to the same city that depart at the same time, depending on
differences in model and airline flight policy.
(4) DARP (Dynamic Airborne Reroute Procedure)
Procedure to request to change to a more efficient path to the air traffic control organization during
flight.
Japan (CARATS), the U.S. (NextGen), and Europe (SESAR) took the proposal of the ATM
operation concept by ICAO as an opportunity to individually develop next-generation flight control
systems. Japan has already started operation of the RNAV flight practices and, as a result, can improve
safety, satisfy increasing air transportation demand, enhance flight efficiency and in-service rate, and
mitigate environmental load. In addition, efficient flight paths are set by leveraging RNP navigation
as air routes for ocean flights, which were fixedly set in the past.
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6.4 Demographic Change
Expansion of the middle-income group (potential and new passengers)

With a high economic growth rate, the population in the middle-income group (with an annual
household disposable income of $5,000–$35,000) is increasing in emerging countries in Asia and other
regions. The population in the middle-income group grew by 13.3% on annual average for the 10 years
between 2000 and 2010 and reached 2.1 billion. And it is estimated that the number has increased to
3.1 billion in 2020.
According to the U.N. World Population Prospects in 2019, the global population will increase from
7.71 billion in 2019 to 8.64 billion in 2030 and 9.4 billion in 2040. The population in developing
countries (including emerging countries and China) is estimated to increase from 6.44 billion in 2019
to 8.1 billion in 2040. (The population excluding China is 4.98 billion in 2019 and is expected to
increase to 6.6 billion in 2040.)
Middle group population Trends in Middle-Income Group Population

(0.1 billion)
 Lower middle group  Upper middle group
(from $1,000 to less (from $4,000 to less
than $4,000) than $12,000)
Source: U.N. World Population Prospects 2019
According to World Bank data, the population in the upper middle-income group (with GNI per
capita from $4,000 to less than $12,000), which is 2.64 billion in 2019, will be 2.87 billion in 2040
and the average increase rate during this period will be 0.41%. Similarly, the population in high income
countries (developed countries) is expected to increase from 1.26 billion to 1.34 billion in 2040 with
an average increase rate of 0.30%. On the other hand, the population in the lower middle-income group
(from $1,000 to less than $4,000) is expected to increase from 3.06 billion to 3.97 billion. The average
increase rate of this group is as high as 1.26% and the population will be nearly the same as the total
of the population in high income countries and upper middle-income countries in 2040.
Regarding air passenger transportation, high income countries (developed countries) and countries
in the upper middle-income group country can afford to stably pay for airfares and currently account
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for half of the global population. However, their population increase rate is already of the developed
country type or similar to it being as low as 0.3 or 0.4%/year. Therefore, the future growth of air
transportation demand resulting from a population increase will be accordingly small. In contrast, the
lower middle-income group has a high increase rate and the population increase is also large. Those
with relatively high incomes in this group can become a new customer segment of air passenger
transportation depending on the population and increase rate.
Population by Income Group
Developed Upper middle- Lower middle- Poverty group

countries income group income group
India is currently at this stage. Although the GDP per capita is still as low as $1,900 (2019), demand
has grown particularly for short-distance routes and aircraft demand is also high due to its large
population (about 1.8 billion in 2019). If supply and demand are balanced in a way comparable to the
ability to pay for airfares, the airline and aircraft markets are expected to grow in India. However, at
present, airlines have competed with one another to gain market share even though general consumers
cannot afford to pay for airfares yet. As a result, the whole industry became busy without making
profit. In 2019, Jet Airways liquidated. It was the second largest domestic airline. The remaining
airlines increased their share of the market as a result of the discontinuation of Jet Airways and are
said to have stopped the airfare discount battle for the time being. However, it is also said that the
resumption of this battle is unavoidable. It will be interesting to see if the Indian airline industry can
enter a stable growth trajectory.
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Global Future Population Estimates (Median Estimate)
World
Middle East 0.92% p.a.
Latin
America
Africa
Population ( 106)
Emerging
Asia and countries
Oceania 1.09% p.a.
Developed
countries*
0.07% p.a.
*Developed countries refer to North America, Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision
Progression of urbanization and concentration of population (passengers)

Urbanization has also proceeded in the world in line with economy growth and population increase.
The ratio of urban population to global population was 29.6% in 1950 but has continued to increase
since then and is expected to be 56.2% in 2020 and 59.8% in 2030.
Ratio of Urban Population to Global Population
In the past, the hub-and-spoke business model was effective for air transportation and has been used
for a long time. In this model, small passenger aircraft are used between small airports in small cities
and the nearest large airport to collect and distribute passengers and large passenger aircraft are used
for mass transportation between large airports. This model assumes that the number of passengers is
not large at small airports at the ends of the spokes.
However, when large cities increase in line with global urbanization, those urban areas are expected
to ensure a sufficient number of passengers to each destination. If this happens, nonstop flights can be
provided between large cities without collection, distribution or transfer of passengers. For this
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purpose, long-distance medium-sized aircraft will be suitable for international flights with a number
of seats that keeps the load factor high according to the number of passengers traveling between cities.
Trends in Global Urban Population
Cities with 10 million or more residents

Cities with 5 to 10 million residents
Cities with 1 to 5 million residents

Population ( 106)
Cities with 500,000 to 1 million residents

Cities with 300,000 to 500,000 residents
Cities with 300,000 or fewer residents
6.5 Competition
High-speed rail
Although rail transportation is an important partner for air transportation as it collects and
distributes passengers around airports, at the same time, high-speed rail is also in competition with
short-distance flights. The flight speed of aircraft is three times as fast as high-speed rail and this
advantage becomes clearer with longer-distance routes. Therefore, their competition mainly occurs
on short-distance routes.
Although high-speed rail connects large cities with large populations, many passengers travel
between these large cities and many of them are business users. Therefore, these routes are also
important for airlines.
Many people use high-speed rail because rail transportation is safe, reliable, convenient, and
comfortable. Specifically, passengers can directly travel between city centers. Trains are punctual and
not as susceptible to the weather. No time is required for security checks like at airports and they offer
more spacious seats. In addition, passengers can have a meal even if they don’t have a high-class seat
and can use mobile phones and the Internet while traveling.
Competition is particularly intense on routes where the flight time is 1 to 2 hours. It is said that
high-speed rail is more competitive when the travel time is within 4 hours by rail. Recently, Brazil,
India, the U.S., Indonesia, and other countries are advancing plans to build new high-speed rails. On
top of that, a modal shift from air to rail has also been made in cargo transportation from the viewpoint
of CO2 emission reduction in addition to passenger high-speed rail.
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Actual Traffic Volume of Global High-Speed Rail

China
Japan
Traffic volume ( 109 passenger-km)
Korea
Taiwan
France
Germany
Spain
Italy
Other
Source: UIC (Union Internationale de Chemins de Fer)
On the other hand, because building and maintenance of railroads takes a lot of money and time and
cost recovery also takes time, long-term demand forecasts and good business judgment are required
to execute a plan. In contrast, opening of airline routes can take less money and time and is easy to
participate in because routes can be opened just by constructing an airfield. For this reason, air
transportation may start first in countries where rail transportation and other infrastructure are not yet
established.
Ocean cargo transportation

Air cargo transportation is advantageous in that cargo can be quickly transported to distant
destinations with its uniquely high speed. However, air cargo transportation is not suitable to carry
large or heavy cargo and airfares are rather expensive than other modes of transportation. Therefore,
this transportation is only used to carry electronic parts, fresh food, high-profile products, and other
lightweight expensive goods that can cover the airfare.
On the other hand, most goods that support society and people’s lives are transported by train or
ship. Both types of transportation are excellent at transporting a large amount of goods at low cost
regardless of the weight and volume.
Therefore, normal long-distance freight relies on low-cost ocean transportation. If demand
overflows from ocean transportation for some reason, it will usually be handled as air cargo. Possible
reasons include economic boom, emergency, and inventory building during economic recovery.
Because the volume of freight handled by ocean transportation is much larger than that of air cargo,
even if only a part of it flows in, the handling volume of air cargo will fluctuate greatly, causing
fluctuations in busyness.
Furthermore, for installing new power system and related equipment that supports alternative fuels
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such as H2 and NH3, it will be easier for ships to handle them in terms of their weight, dimensions,
shape, etc. than airplanes. Therefore, it is conceivable that ships will have some advantages over
airplanes to carry long-distance freight transportation in the future.
Teleconference systems and virtual reality

People travel to see relatives or friends who live far away and travel for business for communication.
Aircraft satisfies these demands as high-speed transportation. Some say that speed and time reduction
should be pursued with SST.
On the other hand, now that we are in the era of the Internet, a means of high-capacity high-speed
electronic communication has been developed meaning you can have a teleconference, which was
once considered a thing of the future, even on a home PC. Teleconference systems for business use
are actually being used and allow for a high degree of expression. With a teleconference system, it is
possible to eliminate the time and cost for travel even if the other party is in a remote location. In
addition, the more urgent the matter, the larger the effects of instantaneous connection. In addition, as
a teleconference system is not associated with actual movement, it leads to little CO2 emissions and is
a reasonable choice when pursuing CO2 emission reduction as a measure against recent global
warming.
There is a deep-rooted belief that it is critical to meet face-to-face and shake hands for human
communication. However, if telework is promoted and spreads as a measure against the current
COVID-19 pandemic, on-screen communication will be accepted for the most part. This can be a
starting point for using teleconferencing as an alternative to air transportation for some purposes in
the future. Similarly, some airlines and travel agencies are said to be studying ways of letting customers
have virtual “local experiences” at destinations without traveling using an avatar, etc.
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7. Freighter Aircraft Demand Forecast
7.1 Fleet Analysis
Nubmer of aircraft in operation

The number of jet freighters operated by airlines worldwide declined slowly from 1,728 in 2011,
but then increased continuously to 2,340 in 2021, including 880 narrow-body aircraft, 740 medium-
sized wide-body aircraft, and 720 large aircraft.
In terms of freighter market share by size, there has been a gradual decline in the share of large
freighters from 2013 to 2018, accompanied by a slight increase in the share of medium-sized wide-
body and narrow-body freighters.
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Converted aircraft
Historically, the freighter market has been dominated by aircraft converted from passenger aircraft,
with 49% of the aircraft in operation in 2021 being converted. Cases of aircraft being converted to
freighters begin to occur when the aircraft is over 10 years old, with the peak of conversions occurring
around 15 years of age.
Looking at the delivery history of new and converted aircraft since 2000, there are no new western
models of narrow-body aircraft other than the 757 freighter (production ended in 2004). Therefore,
there is a relatively stable demand for converted narrow-body freighters in the market.
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To date, a number of 737-300/400 and 757 passenger aircraft have been converted, but by 2021,
freighter conversion plants will be built in China and Italy, and a number of surplus 737-800s are
being converted as the 737 MAX 8 returns to service. Similarly, a number of surplus Airbus A320ceo
aircraft have been converted due to the increase in the number of A320neo aircraft in operation.
Airbus' conversion of the aircraft from passenger to freighter has been in service since 2020.
In the 1990s, many wide-body aircraft such as the A300/A310 and DC-10 were converted to
freighters, and in the 2000s, many 747s, 767s, and MD-11s were converted to freighters. 2008 onward
saw a significant decline in demand for conversion of large three- and four-engine aircraft, due in
part to sluggish air cargo demand and rising fuel costs. Since2008, demand for conversion of large
3-engine and 4-engine aircraft decreased significantly, due in part to sluggish air cargo demand and
rising fuel costs. Moreover, as a shortage of used 767 and A330 passenger aircraft that are retired and
suitable for conversion, furthermore the short amount of time that has passed since the converted
A330 cargo aircraft was introduced in2017, and the launch of the converted 777 cargo aircraft in
October 2019 recently. There, deliveries for new aircraft such as the 767F, 777F and 767-8F have
been increasing over the past few years due to be the longer servie life and loewer maintenance costs
associated with new aircraft.
From 2020, orders for new aircraft grew due to increased demand for freighter aircraft due to
COVID-19, but deliveries of converted freighters based on passenger aircraft increased due to the time
required for delivery. Due to this increased demand, freighter refurbishment plants began to be built
in various locations to convert freighters in 2021, and deliveries of converted freighters such as the
A330-300 and 777-300ER, which are popular for freighter conversions, are planned for 2022 and
beyond.
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Preighter
In 2021, as in 2020, a significant decrease in passenger flights resulted in a shortage of underfloor
cargo capacity and a reliance on freighters for much of the air cargo transportation. In order to
compensate for the shortage of freighters, there have been cases (Preighters) of using suspended
passenger aircraft as freighters in effect. Preighter is used to transport light cargo, such as COVID-19-
related medical supplies, electronic components, clothing and textiles, which have seen a surge in
demand, either in the underfloor cargo area only or in conjunction with cabin spase.
Example of a passenger aircraft with seats removed for use as a cargo aircraft
Example of use as a cargo aircraft in passenger aircraft
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7.2 Jet Freighter Demand Forecast
Trends in cargo traffic volume

The volume of cargo transported by freighter aircraft is highly variable from year to year due to
economic conditions, trade competition, and risk factors such as COVID-19, in addition to its
relationship with the most affected shipping traffic, but on an RTK basis, it is on an increasing trend
during 1991-2019.
In 2020, all freight traffic (RTK) declined by 8.9% year over year due to COVID-19, but in2021 as
described in section 7.1, the impact of passenger flight cancellations temporarily boosted the volume
of cargo transported by freighter aircraft, resulting in a 6.9% increase in all cargo transported (RTK)
versus 2019.
The result of Jet Freighter Demand Forecast

Th number of jet freighters operated by airlines is subject to fluctuations in cargo and aircraft
demand. In the long run, demand is projected to increase, rising from 2,340 aircraft in 2021 to 3,338
in 2041. This includes 580 existing aircraft, 1,711 for replacement demand, and 1,047 for new demand.
We estimate that 2,758 aircraft will be delivered over the next 20 years, adding new demand to
replacement demand. One factor contributing to the increase is the projected doubling of couriers in
2035 due to the development of e-commerce, which has been growing at a rate of over 10% in recent
years. On the other hand, global trends, such as the impact of modal shift toward carbon neutral
measures, could act as a brake on demand growth.
In 2021, the market share of the number of jet freighters in operation by size was 37% for narrow-
body aircraft, 33% for medium-sized wide-body aircraft, and 30% for large-body aircraft, and is
projected to remain unchanged in 2041, with narrow-body aircraft at 39%, medium-sized wide-body
aircraft at 31%, and large-body aircraft at 31%.
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The number of aircraft delivered by size (demand) is 2,758, consisting of 1,279 narrow-body aircraft,
791 medium-sized wide-body aircraft, and 688 large-body aircraft, with a share of 46.4%, 28.7%, and
24.9%, respectively. Of these, 698 new aircraft will be delivered. New aircraft consist of 391 medium-
sized wide-body aircraft and 307 large aircraft, with medium-sized aircraft accounting for 56% of the
total.
The narrow-body freighters are mainly converted from passenger aircraft such as the A320/321,
MD80 series, 737, and 757, as no new narrow-body freighters are expected to appear in the near future.
A small number of freighters converted from regional jets such as the CRJ100/200 and BAe146 still
exist today. In the future, it has been predicted that the CRJ700/900 and E-Jet freighters will be
converted, and a program to convert the E190 and E195 small jets will begin in 2022.
New wide-body aircraft currently include the 767-300F, 777-200LRF, and 747-8F (production
scheduled to end in 2022), but since these models cannot continue to be produced after 2028 due to
carbon dioxide emission regulations, the number of A330neo series, A350F, and 777-8F aircraft will
increase in the future. Retired A330, 777, and 747-8I passenger aircraft can be expected as material
for converted freighters.
By region, between 2021 and 2041, the number of aircraft in operation will increase from 1,049 to
1,126 in North America, 410 to 914 in Asia/Pacific, 400 to 448 in Europe, 94 to 276 in the Middle
East, 140 to 226 in Latin America, 78 to 136 in Africa, and CIS The number of aircraft will increase
from 169 to 212. The number of aircraft in operation is projected to grow particularly in Asia/Pacific
and the Middle East.
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The largest number of aircraft delivered (new + converted) was 867 in North America, followed by
786 in Asia/Pacific, 355 in Europe, 220 in Latin America, 216 in the Middle East, 187 in CIS, and 127
in Africa.
North America and Asia/Pacific are the largest markets for newly manufactured aircraft, with 308
in North America, 195 in Asia/Pacific, 76 in the Middle East, 71 in Europe, and 29 in the CIS. The
Middle East, North America, and Asia/Pacific also have relatively high percentages of new aircraft.
In the HOM (Heavy and Oversize Air Cargo Market), which charters and transports heavy and
substandartd goods by cargo planes with ramp cargo doors, the An-124 and II-76, which are civilian
versions of former Soviet military aircraft, are mainly used. Although HOM's share of total air cargo
volume is very small, around 0.5% of total air cargo volume on an RTK basis, demand is expected to
grow due to rising demand for transportation of aerospace equipment, precision machinery, materials
and equipment for oil field and mine development, disaster relief, humanitarian aid, and so on.
Due to the lack of alternatives to the An-124, An-225, and Il-76, and the infrequency of operations,
the current fleet was expected to remain in service for the time being. However, due to the Ukrainian
conflict that began in March 2022, although domestic flights are operated in Russia, an increasing
number of countries have restricted or banned flights between Russia and other countries, which is
thought to have narrowed the opportunities for the HOM to operate.
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8. Air Cargo Traffic Forecast
Air Cargo Market Actual and Forecast

Global air cargo traffic has grown at an average annual rate of 3.2% over the 20-year period 2001-
2021 on an RTK basis. Freight business tends to be more subject to economic fluctuations than
passenger transportation. In the 2000-2009 decade, the average annual growth rate was 2.1% due to
the fallout from the 2008-2009 financial crisis in the U.S and the credit crisis in Europ, but by 2010-
2019, when the economy recovered from the fallout, it had been growing at a solid 4.3% average
annual rate. However, by 2010-2019, when the economy recovered from the downturn, it continued
to grow at a solid average rate of 4.3% per year.
Despite the downturn caused by COVID-19 in 2020, RTK recovered to the level at the end of 2019
as of December 2020 and is expected to increase in 2021, and global air cargo demand is expected to
recover to an average annual growth rate of 3.6% between 2022 and 2041 on an RTK basis, increasing
to 2.0 times the 2021 level by 2041. Global air cargo demand is expected to recover to an average
annual growth rate of 3.6% between 2022 and 2041 on an RTK basis and increase to 2.0 times the
2021 level by 2041.
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By region, Asia/Pacific airlines will carry the largest volume, increasing 2.1-fold from 77.8 billion
ton-kilometers in 2021 to 161.9 billion ton-kilometers in 2041, reflecting their geographic spread and
high economic growth. North American airlines will increase from 66.7 billion ton-kilometers to 124.4
billion ton-kilometers, European airlines will increase from 47.9 billion ton-kilometers to 93.0 billion
ton-kilometers, and Middle Eastern airlines will take advantage of their geographic location to increase
from 29.1 billion ton-kilometers to 73.0 billion ton-kilometers, a 2.5-fold increase.
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Cargo Load Factor

The overall cargo load factor, which includes transportation by freighter (cargo-only aircraft) and
transportation by passenger aircraft underfloor cargo holds, has ranged from 45.0% in 2001 to 53.6%
in 2021, with a range of ±5% across the 50% mark, subject to fluctuations in demand.
The load factor of cargo aircraft increased from 64.1% in 2001 to 69.8% in 2010 but decreased to
63.8% in 2019. This was due to a decrease in demand for cargo transport due to global trade disputes
and slowing growth of the Chinese economy over the years at that time, as well as an increase in the
amount of cargo transported in the underfloor cargo compartments of passenger aircraft, although
airlines had introduced freighter aircraft to expand their capacity in anticipation of increased air cargo
demand.
In 2020, freight traffic performance (RTK) declined 8.9% from 2019 due to COVID-19. As a result
of increased passenger aircraft cancellations and a decrease in passenger aircraft underfloor cargo
space traffic, freighter traffic increased, and the load factor increased to 73.0%. 2021 continued to be
affected by COVID-19, with a slight increase in freighter load factor, as it continued in 2020.
Source: IATA, ICAO
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Cargo yield
Real freight yields, a measure of freight rates, declined an average of 0.2% per year worldwide over
the 40-year period from 1980-2020. However, from 2004 to 2008, fuel prices rose due to a sharp rise
in crude oil prices. Since then, however, the price has been on a downward trend again.
As a result of the increased suspension of passenger aircraft from 2020 due to COVID-19, capacity
in the underfloor cargo holds of passenger aircraft decreased, resulting in increased demand for
transport by freighter aircraft. At the same time, demand for marine transportation, which had been
reduced in supply due to container shortages, flowed to air cargo, resulting in an increase in transaction
volume and higher yields, despite limited aircraft capacity. We expect yields on freighters to decline
as passenger aircraft operations resume.
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9. Regional Overview
CIS
Europe
North America
Asia-Pacific
Latin America Middle East

Africa
For the past 20 years (2000-2019), global GDP has grown at an average rate of 3.0% per year,
passenger traffic at 5.1%, and cargo traffic at 3.7%. In the meantime, airline liberalization has
progressed around the world, reorganizations of airlines including new entry, amalgamation, shakeout,
privatization of state-owned airlines have been implemented, and furthermore, many LCCs have
entered the market. Airlines have been shifting their business strategy from forming individual
networks on their own, to forming networks by groups of airlines called “alliances.” In addition,
previously it was airlines from the U.S. and Western Europe that drove the growth of air transport, but
in recent years, airlines from the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East have grown remarkably. In
this way, airline business models and network strategies have been changing with the times; and the
airlines and the regions experiencing growth have changed as well.
In addition, requirements for airplanes are different by region. Airlines in the Middle East, due to
their regional requirements, have been demanding widebody jets that can fly long distances, while
airlines in Europe have been using widebody jets which have a cruising range of 12,000 km or less.
In North America, narrowbody jets are operated on all routes ranging from Regional Range to Trans-
continental lines. Many LCCs that have experienced remarkable expansion also use narrowbody jets.
Circumstances characterizing airlines differ depending on business models and regions to which these
airlines belong, and their demand for airplanes also differs.
Passenger demand, cargo demand, and airplane demand by region shown below are the cumulative
sums of the demand for passengers and cargo transported by, and number of airplanes operated by
airlines, as well as number of airplanes delivered to airlines by region which contains countries in
which airlines are registered as a corporation or have their head office.
(In the following description, “Regional Range” means less than 1,000 km, “Short Range” means 1,000 to less than
2,000 km, “Medium Range” means 2,000 to less than 4,500 km, and “Long Range” means 4,500 km or longer.)
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9.0 Regional Economic Characteristics

For each region covered in this report, its economic character is described below by trends in
population and real GDP per capita from 20 years in the past to 20 years in the future (1996-2019/2019-
2040). The horizontal axis shows the real GDP per capita of regions, and the vertical axis shows the
population. Also, the hyperbola (5, 10, 20, 40 × 1012 USD) shows the product of both (GDP per capita
× population = GDP).
24
（×10 8 ）
Population 〜 GDP(real) per Capita

20 SW
( 1996‐2019(〇) / 2020‐2040(×) )
CH
16
AF
12
Regional Population
SE LA
8 WE GDP 40E12
ME NA
4
NE JA
20E12
0 CI 10E12
0 10000EE 20000 30000 40000OC 50000 60000 70000 80000
GDP (real) per Capita (2015USD) 5E12
・In North America (NA), GDP per capita has grown rapidly in the past and will continue to do so in
the future, with the population showing a slightly increasing tendency. The increase of its transport
demand is caused by further economic growth rather than population growth, which has already
become the slow-growth model seen in developed countries.
・Western Europe (WE), Japan (JA), and Oceania (OC), are similar to NA in that GDP per capita
continues to grow despite stagnant (or decreasing) population growth.
・China (CH) has impressed rapid population growth in the past. However, it will pass its peak of the
population by around 2030. Afterward, it will enter a gradual decline process and will face with a
rapidly aging of the population. The increasing burden of supporting dependents will also slow
down its economic growth. Meanwhile, GDP, underpinned by the large population size, will grow
to a level comparable to NA around 2040. GDP per capita does not still come up to those of Europe
and the U.S., but will exceed $20,000 during the forecast period (2020-2040). As a result, the RPK
is expected to transit from the rapid growth model of developing country type to the slow growth
model of developed country type early in the forecasting period.
・Increase in per capita economic power in South Asia (SW: India, etc.) is slow, and the region is still
characterized by rapid population growth. Africa (AF), even more than SW, is also characterized by
slow growth of per capita economic power and rapid population growth.
・In addition, the Middle East (ME) and Latin America (LA) will soon reach a GDP per capita of
$10,000. Eastern Europe (EE) is currently around $13,000.
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Closure of Airspace
In May 2021, Belarus ordered a fighter jet to force a passenger jet from a foreign airline
passing through its airspace to land, and arrested an opposition activist aboard the
passenger jet. In response to this, the EU instructed EU airlines not to fly over the
Belarus territory, and also forbade airlines from Belarus from flying over the EU
territory or having access to EU airports.
In February 2022, Russia started to invade Ukraine. In response to the invasion,

various countries in North America and Europe forbade Russian-related aircraft from
flying over their territories as part of economic sanctions against Russia. Russia, in
response to this, also forbade aircraft from these countries from flying over Russian
territory.
This ban prevented many countries from using any flight routes passing through
Russian airspace which was used from the 1990s. Although airlines in Japan resumed
the use of the Northbound European route (Polar Route) and the Southbound European
route, which replaced the routes over Russia, the flight time for both the Northern and
Southern European routes is 20% longer than that for the routes over Russia. Likewise,
airlines in other countries are expected to use alternative routes depending on their
situations, but in the case of a much longer detour, the flight time, fuel consumption, and
thus CO2 emissions are likely to increase.
If such sanctions and airspace closures last a long time, centers suitable for collecting
and distributing passengers and cargo will be changed due to changes of routes, which
may affect strategies devised by airlines.
Each of the following maps shows Russia and Belarus in dark purple.
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9.1 North America
Azimuthal Equidistant Projection

Center: Los Angeles
Isometric Circles:
in 5,000km increments

Center: New York
Isometric Circles:
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In 2020, the U.S. recorded one of the highest numbers of infected people in the world
because of relatively moderate epidemic control measures and belated initial moves
against COVID-19. At the same time, however, the U.S. moved forward with
development of vaccines with new technology, and procurement of, and preparation for
approval of vaccines. After the inauguration of the new president in January 2021,
vaccination was in full swing, and the vaccination completion rate rapidly rose until
around June. Coincident with the rise, the RPK of domestic flights began to recover, and
rose to 90% or more (July) from about 40% (January) in 2019. After that, the vaccination
completion rate seemed to reach a ceiling and stayed at about 60% as of the end of
December, but the RPK remained at around 90% and it was reported that airlines
became profitable in their quarterly financial statements. In 2022, it seems that COVID-
19 variants will prevent passengers from traveling in Q1. However, we expect that
domestic flights in 2022 will achieve a transportation result nearly on a par with
previous years throughout the year and show an initial recovery.
On Atlantic routes which provide international flights between vaccination-leading
regions, the RPK has begun to rise after the RPK in Europe, where the timing of the rise
in the vaccination completion rate was delayed, started to rise.
In normal times before COVID-19, regarding the annual operating revenue of airlines
in the U.S., domestic flights alone and combined with Atlantic flights accounted for 72%
and 84%, respectively (BTS in 2019) (Related Part: Section 3.3).
Airlines in North America seriously affected by the terrorist attacks in 2001 promoted
organizational streamlining, mergers with other airlines, etc., in the process of
subsequent recovery. As a result, in the U.S., major airlines were mostly integrated into
three companies: American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. Regional
airlines were mostly integrated into three companies: SkyWest Airlines, Republic
Airways and Trans States Airlines. Four airlines, that is, American Airlines, Delta Air
Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines accounted for 70% of all airlines in North
America in RPK as of 2019, with oligopoly on the rise.
Airlines in North America now became the most profitable airlines in the world
through improvement of financial conditions, and precise supply and demand
adjustment. Airlines in North America, in response to skyrocketing fuel oil prices, cut
labor costs as an emergency remedy between 2004 and 2006, and then, they stayed that
way for nearly 10 years. After 2015, in response to lower fuel oil prices, the allocation of
labor costs was restored, but even so, the net profit of airlines in North America
accounted for 45% of that of airlines across the world in 2018 (20% in RPK).
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Initially, a U.S.-China feud that came to the surface in the form of trade friction
worsened through concern over Huawei Technologies, the handling of Hong Kong and
Taiwan, concern over the theft of intellectual property via the Internet, etc. In the process
of rebuilding the world after COVID-19 in the future, rearrangement of supply chains
may occur, which in turn may influence the traffic of passengers and cargo.
Russia has invaded Ukraine in February 2022, and thus, various countries including
the U.S. started economic sanctions against Russia. Regarding air transportation, both
sides have taken measures such as closing their airspaces against each other, stopping
the traffic of aircraft, changing routes, and cutting off the supply of spares, services or
raw materials. In the light of the current state of Russia, these sanctions are likely to
continue for the time being, which may affect aircraft production, route distances (CO2
emissions), market restructuring, etc.
*******************
RPK in the North America region in 2019 was 1.923×1012 passenger kilometers, of which the
Long Range (4500 km or longer), Medium Range (2000 to 4500 km), and Short Range (1000 to
2000 km) markets account for 28%, 34%, and 25% in RPK respectively. In addition, the average
growth rates in RPK of the markets between 2020 and 2041 are expected to be 3.6%, 4.1%, and
3.9%, respectively, and the Medium-range market is expected to continue to be the largest
category in transport demand in the region even in 2041.
Although 4,500 km is almost the same as the north american transcontinental lines, regional
jets and narrowbody planes are mostly used up to this distance range in the North America region,
and the number of widebody planes used is quite small. Even on the Atlantic route (NY-London
great-circle distance of approximately 5,600 km), the 757, which is a large, narrowbody planes,
has been used for a long time. Widebody planes increase in number when route length gets 5,000
km or longer and they are mainly used up to about 9,000 km. The number of planes operated is
not much at longer distances than 9,000km, but they are used up to about 14,000km.
Regional jets are heavily used in a Regional Range, with their usage concentrated at around a
route distance of 600 km, and while the number is gradually decreasing as the route distance
increases, they are used up to a Short Range (2,000 km or less). Passenger turboprops are used
in a Regional Range, and small planes with less than 40 seats are mainly used in a Regional Range
of 600 km or less, with their peak usage around route length of 200 to 300 km. Medium and large
planes with 40 seats or more are used extensively in a Regional Range up to 1,000 km, and they
are most heavily used for around 600 km.
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( ×10 9 ) RPK by Distance Range ‐

North America RPK Average
5000 Growth Rate
2000- 2020-
4000 2019 2041
1198 LR 2.8% 3.6%
3000 MR 3.2% 4.1%
SR 3.2% 3.9%
1564
2000 RR 1.1% 1.3%
546 Total 2.7% 3.6%
1000 317 381 645
412 1117
345
483 LR : Long Range
259 200 323 206
0 249 332 MR : Medium Range
SR : Short Range
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041 RR : Regional Range
RR SR MR LR
RPK share by Distance Range ‐

100%
North America
28% 29% 28% 28%
80%
60% 31% 31% 34% 37%

40%
23% 24% 25%
20% 27%
18% 16% 13% 8%
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041
RR SR MR LR
Fleet Developments of Airlines in North America

12,000
11,209
10,000 2,690
Growth
8,519 27%
No. of Airplanes
8,000
New
0ｄｆ0 Replacement Deliveries
6,000
7,203 9,893
4,000 73%
2,000
Retained 1,316
0
2,021 2041
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In the North America region, over the past 20-year period from 2000 to 2019, GDP grew at an
average annual rate of 2.1%, passenger demand at 2.7%, and cargo demand at 2.5%. As for the
growth rate forecast for 2020 to 2041, GDP will grow at 2.1%, passenger demand at 3.6% and
cargo demand at 3.8%. In addition, 73% of the planes to be delivered in the forecast period will
be replacements for existing planes.
The number of planes in service in the North America region (including freighters) will increase
from 8,519 in 2021 to 11,209 in 2041. Over this period, the number of planes to be delivered and
the sales value (at 2019 list price) are expected to be 9,893 units and 1.25 trillion U.S. dollars,
respectively. Narrowbody planes will account for 72% of all passenger planes deliveries (8,718
units).
North America Fleet New Deliveries Fleet New Deliveries

2021 2041 2022-2041 2021 2041 2022-2041
Passenger Turboprops (TP) Jet Freighters (JF : New + Converted)

15-39 seats 256 145 143 Narrowbody 291 297 297
40-59 seats 97 30 22 Medium Widebody 449 580 423
60 seats and larger 168 207 133 Large 309 259 157
(Total) TP 521 382 298 (Total) JF 1,049 1,136 877
Passenger Jets (JP) (Grand total) TP + JP + JF 8,519 11,209 9,893

20-59 seats 770 0 0
60-99 seats 1,313 1,457 1,278
(subtotal) Regional Jets (RJ) 2,083 1,457 1,278 Growth Indices (2020-2041)
100-119 seats 179 1,032 997 GDP 2.1 ％
120-169 seats 2,818 2,647 2,179 RPK 3.6 ％
170-229 seats 1,227 3,235 3,068 RTK 3.8 ％
(subtotal) Narrowbody Jets (NJ) 4,224 6,914 6,244 Fleet 1.4 ％
230-309 seats 413 927 844 Sales (2019 List Price) 1,248 US$ billion
310-399 seats 229 393 352
400 seats and larger 0 0 0
(subtotal) Widebody Jets (WJ) 642 1,320 1,196
(Total) JP = RJ + NJ + WJ 6,949 9,691 8,718
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9.2 Europe

Center: London
Isometric Circles:
Europe as defined by JADC includes Western Europe, Eastern Europe, North Europe
and Turkey, and many countries therein are EU member states.
The main portion of every country in Europe almost fits in an equilateral triangle of
which one side is 4,500 km, and assuming that a circle with a radius of 10,000 km around
London is drawn, a main portion of the world fits in that circle. If extended to 12,000 km,
even Singapore is in the extended circle.
The EU is a single air transportation market with a continental scale, within which
countries mutually open even domestic flights according to aviation agreements.
Passenger demand in Europe, including the EU, has shown a solid growth in the past 20
years, and the EU, one of three pillars together with North America and China, has
shored up global air transportation demand.
Major airlines in Western Europe have already been integrated into three groups, that
is, Air France-KLM, IAG (BA and others), and Lufthansa. LCCs rapidly grew after the
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liberalization in 1993/1997, accounting for about 37% of the air seat supply by the
airlines in Europe as of 2019.
Many countries in Europe are EU members. The EU has been developing as a single
market, and the liberalization of air transportation also has been in progress. However,
epidemic control measures, entry refusal measures, etc., for COVID-19 differed from
country to country, and thus, flights within the EU dropped significantly compared to
domestic flights in the U.S.
In 2021, vaccination started in Europe, and the vaccination completion rate rose in
several months through the summer. Clearly synchronized with the rise in the
vaccination completion rate, the RPK of flights in Europe was observed to recover, which
showed that vaccines were effective for overcoming COVID-19 and allowing social
activities to get back to normal. Although the vaccination completion rate in Europe was
slightly higher than that in North America, the recovery rate of the RPK of flights in
Europe (compared to 2019) was nearly 70%, lower than that of about 90% of domestic
flights in the U.S. Such differences may prove that Europe was affected by having
national boundaries within the region, and taking different epidemic control measures
from country to country.
On Atlantic routes which provide international flights between vaccination-leading
regions, the RPK has begun to rise after the RPK in Europe, where the timing of the
rise in the vaccination completion rate was delayed, started to rise. However, as of
December 2021, the recovery rate of RPK stayed at about 60% on a par with the
recovery rate of RPK of flights in Europe.
The RPK in Europe (Western Europe and Eastern Europe) in 2019 was 1.974 × 1012
passenger km, and as for details, the long-distance range (4,500 km or longer) occupied
41%, which was the highest. The average growth rates for the medium-distance range
and the short-distance range in the future until 2041 are expected to be 6.8% and 4.6%,
respectively, compared to 2.5% for the long-distance range. For details of the RPK in
2041, compared to an increase of 29% for the long-distance range, the medium-distance
range and the short-distance range are expected to increase to 35% and 28%, which will
prove an increasing presence of flights within the European region.
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Europe RPK Average
6000 Growth Rate
2000- 2020-
5000
2019 2041
4000 1402 LR 2.4% 2.5%
MR 7.6% 6.8%
3000 SR 6.3% 4.6%
1655 RR 2.2% 1.7%
2000 Total 3.8% 4.1%
816
1000 91 493 162 389 1317
LR : Long Range
513 493
145 268 276 396 MR : Medium Range
0 180 207
SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR

Europe
100%
29%
80% 44% 41%
55%
60%
35%
14% 20%
40% 10%
16% 24% 25%
20% 28%
19% 18% 14% 8%
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041
RR SR MR LR
Among aircraft used in the Western Europe region, wide-body jets are used in the long-
distance range and narrow-body jets are mainly used in up to the medium-distance range.
The number density of narrow-body jets reaches a peak around 500 km of route distance,
and monotonically decreases as route distance is extended toward around 3,500 km. In
a short-distance, regional jets are used with a route distance of around 600 km as peak.
However, a significantly smaller number of regional jets are used than in the North
American region, and a still smaller number of regional jets are used in the short-
distance range. In the short-distance range, along with regional jets, turboprops are also
used, peaking around 300 km of route distance, and are in charge of even shorter
distances than regional jets. Many medium- and large-sized turboprops with 40 seats or
more are used. Small-sized turboprops with less than 40 seats are used in a distance
range of 600 km or less, reaching a peak around 200 km.
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The great majority of airplanes used in the Eastern European region are narrowbody planes.
They are mainly used in the Short Range of 900 to 1,900 km*, and with regard to longer range
than this range, they are used for ranges up to around 4,000 km with their number gradually
decreasing. The number of widebody planes is small. They are used for lines between 5000 to
10000 km, with their usage a little concentrated in around 5500 to 7000 km. In the Regional
Range, passenger turboprop planes with 40 seats or more are used in a range of 300 to 700 km,
mainly around 400 km. At longer distances than 700 km, the number of turboprop planes
decreases, but some are used up to 1000 km. The market is split between middle- and large-
ここは差
sized turboprops and narrowbody jets with the boundary around 700km. Regional jets are used in
なし
the range of 300-1500 km, but they are not many in number.
(* In Eastern Europe, Wizz Air, an LCC, is performing well).
The number of planes (including freighters) in service in Europe will increase from 5,490 at
the end of 2021 to 9,369 in 2041. Over this period, the number of planes to be delivered and the
sales value (at 2019 list price) are expected to be 8,060 units and 1.18 trillion U.S. dollars,
respectively. Of the units to be delivered, 52% will be replacements for existing planes.
Narrowbody planes will constitute 78% of passenger planes delivered (7,427 units).
Fleet Developments of Airlines in Europe

9,369
10,000
8,000
3,879
Growth
No. of Airplanes
5,490 48% New

6,000 Deliveries
00 8,060
Replacement
4,000
4,181
52%
2,000
Retained 1,309
0
2,021 2041
In Europe, over the past 20 years from 2000 to 2019, GDP grew at an average annual rate of
1.7%, passenger demand at 3.8%, and cargo demand at 2.6%. As for the growth rate forecast from
2020 to 2041, GDP will grow annually at an average rate of 1.5%, passenger demand at 4.1% and
cargo demand at 3.1%.
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Europe Fleet New Deliveries Fleet New Deliveries

2021 2041 2022-2041 2021 2041 2022-2041

(Total) TP 381 360 271 (Total) JF 400 455 362

20-59 seats 39 0 0
60-99 seats 297 236 203
(subtotal) Regional Jets (RJ) 336 236 203 Growth Indices (2020-2041)
100-119 seats 115 738 704 GDP 1.5 ％
120-169 seats 2,787 2,613 1,907 RPK 4.1 ％
170-229 seats 602 3,368 3,216 RTK 3.1 ％
230-309 seats 470 879 754 Sales (2019 List Price) 1,181 US$ billion
310-399 seats 338 712 643
(Total) JP = RJ + NJ + WJ 4,709 8,554 7,427
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9.3 Asia-Pacific
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to see strong economic growth well into the future, given
the expanding middle-class population, based on the region’s large population and the impressive
economic growth rate. Currently, China is exercising strong economic traction with its capacity
based on both its population and economic growth rate, and also creating massive demand for air
travel.
Its economic growth is expected to
continue through this forecast period
(2022 to 2041), during which, the China
Japan
economic growth and expanded demand
for air travel (RPK) are also forecasted Northeast
Asia
for the Southeast Asian countries
(ASEAN) including Thailand, Vietnam, South
Asia
and Indonesia.
However, China’s demographic bonus Southeast
Asia
ended by about 2015, and its total
population will begin to decline after Oceania
passing its peak about 2030, and the

aging of Chinese society will be set to accelerate rapidly.
Fleet Developments of Airlines in Asia-Pacific

20,000
18,528
15,000
No. of Airplanes
Growth 9,389 New

Deliveries
9,139 61%
10,000 15,498
0%
Replacement
6,109
5,000 39%
Retained
3,030
0
2,021 2041
A deregulation for Airline business has been in progress in this region as well. LCCs have been
established even in Japan and Taiwan, where no LCCs had existed before, and open skies (full
liberalization within the region) in the ASEAN began to emerge from 2016, along with the launch
of the AEC (ASEAN Economic Community).
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2022-2041
The Asia-Pacific region covers a geographically large area, with the seas and mountains therein.
Its ground transportation networks have not yet been fully developed due to being separated by
the sea and mountains, and therefore, air transportation is suitable for the region.
In the region, over the past 20-year period from 2000 to 2019, GDP grew at an average annual
rate of 5.2%, passenger demand at 7.3%, and cargo demand at 3.6%. In the meantime, the region
shored up the growth of global air transport. In the period from 2020 to 2041, the region is
expected to continue growing significantly; GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 3.6%,
passenger demand at 4.5%, and cargo demand at 3.1%. It is a growth market where 61% of planes
to be delivered during the forecast period will be for new demand.
The number of planes in service (including freighters) in the region will increase from 9,139 in
2021 to 18,528 in 2041. Over this period, new deliveries and the sales value (at 2019 list price)
are expected to be 15,498 units and 2.2 trillion U.S. dollars, respectively. Partly because massive
domestic (Regional- and Short-Range) markets also exist in India and China, and partly because
there is great demand for planes by LCCs, narrowbody planes will account for 77% of the number
of passenger planes to be delivered (13,263 units).
Asia-Pacific Fleet New Deliveries Fleet New Deliveries

2021 2041 2022-2041 2021 2041 2022-2041

60 seats and larger 512 1,201 928 Large 144 345 254
(Total) TP 1,000 1,777 1,439 (Total) JF 410 924 796

20-59 seats 11 0 0
60-99 seats 366 531 506
100-119 seats 52 548 535 GDP 3.6 ％
120-169 seats 4,590 5,864 4,269 RPK 4.5 ％
170-229 seats 989 5,805 5,403 RTK 3.1 ％
230-309 seats 961 1,666 1,373 Sales (2019 List Price) 2,187 US$ billion
310-399 seats 665 1,398 1,177
(subtotal) Widebody Jets (WJ) 1,721 3,079 2,550
(Total) JP = RJ + NJ + WJ 7,729 15,827 13,263
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[ China ]

Center: Shanghai
Isometric Circles:
China is a continental market with a vast territory, and transport demand (RPK) is mainly for
regional and short range domestic routes. China, along with Europe and North America, will be
one of the three major markets pillaring the global air passenger traffic demand at the end of the
forecast period (2041).
China's economic growth has been accompanied so far by a rapid increase in air passenger
demand. During that time, China was within a range for a long time where GDP per capita is less
than $10,000 and the demand for travel increases rapidly as income levels rise. In consequence,
the average RPK growth rate was 12.4% per year over the past 20 years. However, as a result of
economic growth, GDP per capita has reached $10,000, and as that is expected to continue to
increase, China transition of growth model from the rapid growth model of developing countries
type to the slow growth model of developed countries type will occur at an early stage within the
forecast period. Therefore, future RPK growth rate is expected to decline.
(Related Part: sections 5.2.7, 5.3.3)
RPK in the region in 2019 was 1.333×1012 passenger kilometers, of which the Short Range
(1,000 to 2,000 km) market was the largest accounting for 44%, and for 59% together with the
Regional Range market accounted. They are expected to grow at an annual average rate of 5.0%
and 4.6% respectively between 2020 and 2041, and of these, in 2041, the Short Range market is
expected to account for 49% in RPK, and for 64% together with the Regional Range market.
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Among current airplanes, narrowbody planes are used in a medium or shorter range (4,500 km
or less), with their usage concentrated in a range from 400 to 2,200 km, and most planes used in
the region are narrowbody planes. Their peak usage occurs at a range of around 1,300 km, but the
distribution is spread out fairly evenly and there is no outstanding range of distance.
Widebody planes, which are fewer than narrowbody planes, are extensively used across the
region from Long Range to Regional Range (around 800 km). In the Long Ranges over 5,000 km,
widebody planes are used for range distances up to 13,000km. In the ranges between 5,000 km
and 13,000 km, although their fleet density exhibits some characteristic peaks, they are used
almost uniformly across the entire range. For ranges of less than 5,000 km, the fleet density is
particularly high in the range of 1,000 to 2,000 km.
A small number of passenger turboprop planes are used.

China RPK Average
4000 Growth Rate
2000- 2020-
3000 728 2019 2041
LR 10.9% 3.8%
539 MR 13.0% 4.0%
2000 SR 13.9% 5.0%
RR 10.6% 4.6%
1722
323 Total 12.4% 4.5%
1000 90 228
41 62 589 LR : Long Range
20 187 527
0 194 MR : Medium Range
43 87
26 SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR

China
100%
21% 24% 21%
31%
80%
15% 15%
17%
60% 15%
40% 44% 49%

33% 44%
20%
20% 20% 15% 15%
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041
RR SR MR LR
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2022-2041
Demand for air transport in China is mainly for Regional Range lines and Short Range lines up
to 2,000 km, of which 90% is considered to be for domestic lines (when combined with Medium
Range lines, 80% is for domestic lines). The airplanes used on these lines are narrowbody planes,
and China’s domestic-made C919 passenger plane is applicable for these ranges, in addition to
the 737 and A320 families.
As thus described, since there is sufficiently large demand for narrowbody planes even in the
domestic route market alone, even if it is not feasible to export the C919 due to issues such as
type approval, it is conceivable that China can develop domestic plane production and the aviation
industry by generating demand from its domestic market, given the approval by the Civil Aviation
Administration of China and China’s vast territory. In aiming to become an aviation power, it is
conceivable for China to adopt an import substitution policy, and even if it is currently using the
737 or A320, to shift to procurement focused on domestically produced airplanes. If that is the
case, even though transport demand in the region is large, China’s market size might substantially
shrink in the next 20 years from the viewpoint of the U.S. & European manufacturers. In addition,
the outlook for US-China relations has not been optimistic in recent years, and the business
environment may change in the future.
In addition, economic sanctions against the Russia's invasion into Ukraine will hinder for
Russia to make procurement and maintenance of Western produced planes and equipment. Then,
if Russia promotes joint development with China in search of airplanes and equipment that can
be procured, technology transfer from Russia to China will proceed. As a result, it is possible that
the domestic production of passenger planes and equipment in China will be achieved and the
presence of China as a type certification issuer will be established by the start of the next
generation.
138
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Intentionally Blank
139
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[ Southeast Asia ]

Center: Singapore
Isometric Circles:
The Southeast Asia region, defined by JADC, consists of the 10 ASEAN member countries and
East Timor.
RPK in Southeast Asia in 2019 was 648×109 passenger kilometers, of which the Long Range
(4,500 km or longer) market was the largest accounting for 32%, followed by the Medium Range
(2,000 to 4,500 km) market which accounted for 32%. Average growth rates in distance ranges
between 2020 and 2041 are 5.7% in the Medium Range market and 6.4% and 6.0% in the Short
and Regional Range markets respectively. As a result of the growth of the Regional and Short
Range markets, in 2041, in RPK, the ranges of 2,000 km or shorter will account for 48% in total,
and the range of 4,500 km or shorter will account for 85% in total.
Narrowbody planes are the main planes in fleet of the region, and mainly used in the range
from 300 to 3,500 km, with their peak density of planes at a range from 500 to 700 km. They are
especially utilized in the range up to 2,000 km. Medium and large passenger turboprop planes
with 40 seats or more are used in the Regional Range market of 700 km or less, and heavily used
around 300 km. Widebody planes are used in a range from Long Range (up to around 14,000
km) to Short Range market, but the number of them is low.
LCCs are flourishing in Southeast Asia as well. Of the number of seats provided by airlines in
the region, that provided by LCCs exceeds 50%, which is the second highest after South Asia
(India, etc.). Since income levels have not yet been so high (overall average GDP per capita is
slightly less than $3,000 in the region), the low-cost fares offered by LCCs appear to be suitable
for eliciting the potential air transportation demand. In 2016, the “Value Alliance” was established
as the first alliance by LCCs, which is for LCCs operating in the Southeast Asian region to
cooperate with each other to provide services such as transit reservations and through-ticketing.
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2022-2041
If things get on the right track, it is expected for LCCs that are good at Short Range lines to be
able to provide passengers with substantial Medium or Long Range travel services by means of
smooth connections between LCCs.

Southeast Asia RPK Average
1600 Growth Rate
2000- 2020-
1200 219 2019 2041
LR 2.9% 1.3%
501 MR 9.1% 5.2%
800 SR 9.3% 5.7%
RR 8.2% 5.7%
163 324 Total 6.2% 4.5%
400
92 164
126 61 95 326 LR : Long Range
0 16 44
20 SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR

Southeast Asia
100%
16%
32%
80% 47%
59%
37%
60%
32%
40% 22%
18% 24%
18%
15%
20% 10%
19% 24%
13% 16%
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041
RR SR MR LR
Furthermore, aviation liberalization is progressing in this region as well. Preparations began

with the reference to the Open Sky Policy made during the 1995 ASEAN Summit, and, under the
RIATS roadmap, which promotes integration of air travel sectors, the multilateral agreement on
full liberalization of air freight services (MAFLAFS), the multilateral agreement on air services
(MAAS) and the multilateral agreement for the full liberalization of passenger air services
(MAFLPAS) were prepared and all ASEAN members have ratified before now. As a result, the
designated airlines are granted third, fourth and fifth freedom traffic rights in sub-regions within
the ASEAN region, cities where international airports are located, and between capitals.
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2022-2041
[ South Asia ]

Center: New Delhi
Isometric Circles: in 5,000km increments
The region, including the Indian subcontinent, has a large interior space. In addition, many
migrant workers are sent from the countries in the region to the Middle East. The Middle East
(Dubai) is in medium range (2,000 to 4,500 km) and at a reachable location from anywhere in
the region.
RPK in South Asia in 2019 was 275×109 passenger kilometers, of which the Short Range (1,000
to 2,000 km) market was the largest accounting for 36%, followed by the Medium Range (2,000
to 4,500 km) market accounting for 30%. The average growth rates in the distance ranges between
2020 and 2041 are expected to be 6.6% to 7.3% in the Medium and Short Range markets, and
6.7% in the Regional Range market. As for the breakdown of RPK in 2041, it is expected that the
Medium Range and the Short Range markets will account for 32% and 43% respectively. In those
markets, including the Regional Range market, air transport demand on the Indian subcontinent
will expand.
Narrowbody planes are the main planes in fleet of the region, which are used in distances for
500 to 4,000 km, and especially used heavily for 500 to 2,000 km. Between 2,000 km and 4,000
km, the number of planes to be operated decreases as the distance increases. Widebody planes are
used in distances of 2,000 km or longer, and used in combination with narrowbody planes in
distance up to 4,000 km. Only widebody planes are used beyond that. The number of widebody
planes to be operated is small. Many passenger turboprop planes are used in the Regional Range
of 100 to 800 km, with their peak usage at 300 km.
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2022-2041

South Asia RPK Average
1200 Growth Rate
54 2000- 2020-
2019 2041
341 LR 5.5% 1.2%
800
MR 11.3% 6.6%
SR 11.3% 7.3%
465 RR 8.6% 6.7%
400 Total 9.4% 6.4%
42
32 83
14 30 98 219 LR : Long Range
0 11
10 18 SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR
India is representative of
this region in terms of both
South Asia
100% 5% population and economic
15%
28%
80% 31%
32% scale, and in recent years has,
30% along with experiencing
60% 22% 27%
remarkable economic grow-
40% 43%
25% 36% th as a cornerstone of BRICs,
29%
20% increased RPK and been
22% 19% 20%
16% strongly motivated toward
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041 procurement of new planes
as well. GDP per capita in
RR SR MR LR
India is at a level of around
$2,000, indicating that India is in a rapid growth stage where travel demand is rapidly increasing
as income levels rise. However, it is characterized that GDP is expanding due to the increase in
population and the increase in GDP per capita is gradual. Therefore, the income level and thus the
ability to pay air fare are still low. In this environment, in which domestic airlines compete fiercely
for market share and have been unable to generate satisfactory profits, Jet Airways, the second
largest airline in India, was forced to liquidate the company and disappeared in 2019.
Immediately after the bankruptcy of Jet Airways, the yield of the remaining airlines increased,
but a recurrence of market share competition is reported to be inevitable. Based on the actual data
for the past 20 years and the future economic outlook, this forecast predicts that the RPK in this
region, excluding Long-Range markets, will grow at a rate of around 7%. To realize this growth,
however, it will be necessary to establish a long-term sustainable balance between income levels
and airline yields in the region.
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2022-2041
[ Northeast Asia ]

Center: Taipei
Isometric Circles:
The Northeast Asia region, defined by JADC, consists of Taiwan, North and South Korea, and
Mongolia, and Taiwan and South Korea form the cores of the region in terms of economic power
as well as in terms of RPK. The land areas of the countries are small, much of the air transport
are flights to outside regions, and Long Range markets occupied 48% of the RPK in 2019.
Meanwhile, from the region, all of the Southeast Asia area falls within a Medium Range (~4,500
km), and besides, the lines between Taiwan and Korea fall within a range of 2,000 km. Similarly,
the lines between Taiwan and Japan’s Kansai area are within a range of 2,000 km as well, and
even Taiwan to Hokkaido within a range of 3,000 km. In recent years, LCCs have become much
more active in the region.
RPK in Northeast Asia in 2019 was 232×109 passenger kilometers, of which the Long Range
(4,500 km or longer) market was the largest, accounting for 48%, followed by the Medium Range
(2,000 to 4,500 km) market, accounting for 30%, and the Short Range (1,000 to 2,000 km) and
Regional Range (up to 1000km) markets, accounting for around 11% respectively. Average
growth rates in the distance ranges between 2020 and 2041 are expected to be 4.0% and 3.3% in
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2022-2041
the Short Range and Medium Range markets respectively, indicating growths in the Short and
Medium Range markets. And in 2041, the Long Range and Medium Range markets are expected
to account for 38% and 38% in RPK respectively.
Among current fleet, while passenger turboprop planes are used in the Regional Range, but not
longer than 300 km, and in the 300 to 3,700 km range, narrowbody planes are used, with their
peak utilization between 400 to 500 km. Widebody planes are used at the distance of 500 km up
to 13,000 km. Widebody planes are used alongside narrowbody planes in the Short Range and
Medium Range, and the number of planes in use is almost the same as that of narrowbody planes
used in each range. For ranges of 4,000 km or longer, only widebody planes are used, and
especially used in ranges of 9,000 km or longer.

Northeast Asia RPK Average
400 Growth Rate
2000- 2020-
300 143 2019 2041
LR 3.5% 1.1%
MR 6.8% 3.3%
200 SR 6.4% 4.0%
112 RR 2.3% 0.8%
142
Total 4.4% 2.2%
100 89
56 69
27 58 LR : Long Range
19 25
10
0 7 26 31 MR : Medium Range
16 19
SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR

Northeast Asia
100%
80% 48%
38%
57% 61%
60%
40% 38%
19% 30%
18%
20% 7% 7% 11% 16%
17% 13% 11% 8%
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041
RR SR MR LR
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2022-2041
[ Japan ]

Center: Tokyo
Isometric Circles:
The great-circle distance from Japan (Tokyo) to the West Coast of the United States is
approximately 9,000 km, and that to the East Coast is about 11,000 km. The main part of Europe
is also located about 10,000 km away from Japan in great-circle distance. Even among Southeast
Asian countries which are considered to be “close” to Japan, it is only Thailand (Bangkok), the
Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar (Naypyidaw), etc. that can be reached from Tokyo on the
Medium Range lines (covering up to 4,500 km), and Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia are more
than 4,500 km away from Tokyo, falling under Long Ranges. The destinations which airplanes
can reach from Japan on the Short Range lines up to 2,000 km are limited to places such as Beijing,
Shanghai, and Northern Taiwan. The Regional Range lines of 1,000 km or less include all
domestic routes, as well as the main routs of Tokyo-Sapporo and Tokyo-Fukuoka.
RPK in Japan in 2019 was 204×109 passenger kilometers, of which the Long Range (4,500 km
or longer) market was the largest accounting for 39%, followed by the Regional Range (up to
1,000 km), Short Range (1,000 to 2,000 km) and Medium Range (2,000 to 4,500 km) markets
accounting for 33%, 18% and 10% in RPK respectively. The average growth rate of each distance
range between 2020 and 2041 is expected to be 5.1% for Medium Range and 3.5% for Short
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2022-2041
Range, and as a result of the increase in Short to Medium Ranges than the present, the breakdown
in RPK in 2041 is 37%, 15%, 20% and 28% in order from longer distance range.
Among current fleet, narrowbody planes are mainly used in a range from 500 to 2,000 km, and
many are used in a range up to around 1,300 km. Widebody planes are used in ranges from the
Long Range (up to 11,000 km) to the Regional Range lines. Both narrowbody and widebody
planes have their pre-eminent peak of fleet density especially in the 900 km distance range.
Regional Jets and passenger turboprop planes are used in the Regional Range; and both are used
in almost the same number as widebody planes, in the range from 500 to 700 km. Turboprop
planes of small size are mostly used in the range of less than 500 km, with their peak fleet density
at 300 km.

Japan RPK Average
500 Growth Rate
2000- 2020-
400 2019 2041
LR -0.5% 2.8%
147
300 MR 1.9% 5.1%
SR 3.6% 3.5%
59
200 RR 1.8% 2.3%
80 79 Total 1.0% 3.1%
88 52 20
100 13 12 37
47 54 68
0 MR : Medium Range
SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR

100%
Japan
80% 37% 39% 37%

53%
60% 8% 10% 15%
8% 17%
40% 18%
20%
11%
20% 38% 33%
29% 28%
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041
RR SR MR LR
147
2022-2041
[ Oceania ]

Center: Sydney
Isometric Circles:
in 5,000 km increments
The Oceania region, defined by JADC, consists of Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea
and the island states which lie to the east of these countries. These are in isolated positions in the
Pacific Ocean, and, for example, even if a circle is drawn with a radius of 10,000 km centered on
Sydney, no major land masses can be reached and contact with only Southeast Asia area is
possible. One must fly 7,000 to 8,000 km to reach Japan and Singapore from around the Sydney
area, even utilizing a Great-Circle route. Even within the region, the distance between Sydney
and Wellington is approximately 2,500 km.
RPK in the Oceania region in 2019 was 211×109 passenger kilometers, of which, reflecting its
geographical features, the Long Range (4,500 km or longer) market is the largest accounting for
46%. Average growth rates of RPK in each distance range markets between 2020 and 2041 are
expected to be 4.1% and 4.2% in the Medium Range and Short Range markets respectively, and
in 2041, the Long Range market (35%) and the Medium Range market (34%) are expected to
have a larger share in RPK.
Among current fleet, many small, medium and large passenger turboprop planes are used in
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2022-2041
the Regional Range of 700 km or less, mostly around 400 km. Narrowbody planes are main force
of the fleet in a range of 700 to 4,500 km, and, especially they are heavily used in the range from
500 to 2,700 km. Widebody planes, the number is not so many, are used in a range from the Long
Range (up to 13,400 km) to the Medium Range (2,200 km or longer ).

Oceania RPK Average
400 Growth Rate
2000- 2020-
138
300 2019 2041
LR 3.1% 1.6%
MR 5.1% 4.1%
200 134 SR 5.4% 4.2%
96 RR 3.3% 2.5%
71 Total 3.9% 2.9%
100 55 72
52
39 LR : Long Range
21 19 29
52
0 10 23
30 MR : Medium Range
16 SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR

Oceania
100%
80% 35%
53% 47% 46%
60%
34%
40% 26% 26%
21%
20% 10% 12% 14% 18%

16% 15% 14% 13%
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041
RR SR MR LR
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9.4 Middle East

Center: Dubai
Isometric Circles:
The Middle East region is located at the junction of the Eurasian and African continents. For
example, in Great-Circle distance, Dubai-London is 5,500 km, Dubai-Cape Town is 7,700 km,
Dubai-Singapore is 5,900 km, and Dubai-Tokyo is 8,000 km. Utilizing passenger planes capable
of cruising ranges of about 10,000 km, passengers can reach Europe, Africa, and Asia by
connecting in Dubai. (11,500 km from Dubai to Washington, 14,000 km from Dubai to Los Angeles)
Taking advantage of its geographical features, airlines in the region have captured global Long
Range air transport demand in a form of the sixth freedom of the air, and have experienced double-
digit growth in both passenger and freight demand over the past 20 years. In particular, Emirates,
Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways have expanded their lines around the world, centering on
Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, and have captured much of the transfer flight demand.
Major airlines in this region have proactively engaged in the air freight transport “belly cargo”
business using vacant spaces in lower hold of their large widebody passenger planes, and they
have achieved remarkable growth while major global airlines have been struggling to grow or
maintain their air freight transport businesses. Emirates has increased its RTK by focusing on
belly cargo, and in addition, it strengthened transport by freighter jets between 2013 and 2015.
Qatar Airways has increased its RTK by belly cargo and freighter jets at a ratio of almost 1:1, and ,
in 2020, the total RTK increased even under the influence of COVID-19. (Related:
150
2022-2041
Appendix G)
RPK in the region in 2019 was 774×109 passenger kilometers, of which the Long Range (4,500
km or longer) market accounted for 63%, and this market showed annual growth rate of more
than 15% year after year, over the past 20 years, driving growth in the air transport of this region.
Since 2015, however, the pace of growth has slowed. It is conceivable that the acquisition of
transport demand, due to the opening of new routes or the re-splitting exist transport demand in
other airlines, have come to an end, resulting in saturated conditions.
In this forecast, the average growth rate in RPK for Long Range market between 2020 and
2041 is expected to be 2.9%. It is expected that the Medium Range and Short Range markets will
show growth rates of 5.2% and 4.0% respectively, and even if growth in the Long Range market
slows down, transport demand in this region is expected to keep growing. However, their volumes
are small (37% of RPK in 2019) compared to the Long Range market (63% in 2019), therefore
average growth rate over all distance ranges is expected to be 3.7%.

Middle East RPK Average
2000 Growth Rate
2000- 2020-
1600 2019 2041
LR 14.0% 2.9%
1200 922 MR 10.2% 5.2%
SR 8.5% 4.0%
800 RR 6.2% 3.4%
Total 11.6% 3.7%
488 553
400
83 33 146
0 12 22 41
12 SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR

Middle East
100%
80% 41%
54% 54%
63%
60%
30%
40%
28% 32%
24%
20% 14%
11% 8% 9%
14% 7%
0% 5% 5%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041

RR SR MR LR
151
2022-2041
The Long Range market, which has grown by capturing the capturing transit-type demand,
carries mostly passengers who live outside the Middle East region, but RPK analysis shows that
the Medium Range and shorter routes are mainly used by people living in the region.
Airlines in the Middle East have developed primarily around Long Range routes, but airline
liberalization has even started in the Middle East. In Saudi Arabia, Flynas (formerly Nas Air),
which is an LCC and the only private airline in the country, was founded in 2007 and operates
domestic and Short Range international flights. In the UAE, flydubai was founded as an LCC in
2008.
Among current fleet in the region, narrowbody planes are the main passenger planes in service
and have the highest fleet density in the range of 4,000 km or shorter. And widebody planes are
also used frequently in ranges between 2,000km and 4,000 km. Only widebody planes are used
at distances further than 4000 km, and especially heavily used in the range of 4,500km to 6,500km.
A particular concentration is also observed in the 11,000 to 12,000 km range.
In the Middle East region, over the past 20 years from 2000 to 2019, GDP grew at an average
annual rate of 3.9%, passenger traffic demand at 12.4%, and cargo demand at 12.9%. It is expected
for the period from 2020 to 2041, that, while becoming gradually stabilized, growth will continue,
with GDP set to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5%, passenger traffic demand at 3.7%, and
cargo demand at 4.5%.
The number of planes in service in the Middle East (including freighters) will increase from
1,468 in 2019 to 2,770 in 2041. Over this period, the units delivered and the sales value (at 2019
list price) are expected to be 2,382 units, worth 560.0 billion U.S. dollars, respectively. Of the
units delivered, 55% will be new demand. In addition, widebody planes will account for 49% of
new deliveries (2,127 units) for passenger planes.
In June, 2017, four countries including Saudi Arabia broke their diplomatic relations with Qatar
and closed their border roads, and, at the same time, decided to refuse to allow planes from Qatar
to fly over their territory. The decision blockaded Qatar’s land transport, and Qatar has been forced
to rely on the conveyance by sea and air to have food, daily commodities and others. In January
2021, an agreement was reached between these countries to restore diplomatic relations. Air
routes are also restarted.
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2022-2041
Fleet Developments of Airlines in Middle East

3,000
2,770
Growth
No. of Airplanes
2,000 1,302 New

55% Deliveries
1,468
0 0% 2,382
Replacement
1,000 1,080
45%
Retained 388
0
2,021 2041
Middle East Fleet New Deliveries Fleet New Deliveries

2021 2041 2022-2041 2021 2041 2022-2041

(Total) TP 35 46 32 (Total) JF 94 283 223

20-59 seats 8 0 0
60-99 seats 46 34 34
100-119 seats 15 92 91 GDP 2.5 ％
120-169 seats 492 604 494 RPK 3.7 ％
170-229 seats 82 474 453 RTK 4.5 ％
(subtotal) Narrowbody Jets (NJ) 589 1,170 1,038 Fleet 3.2 ％
230-309 seats 230 432 359 Sales (2019 List Price) 560 US$ billion
310-399 seats 321 759 696
(Total) JP = RJ + NJ + WJ 1,339 2,441 2,127
153
2022-2041
9.5 Latin America

Center: Quito
Isometric Circles:
The Latin America region, defined by JADC, consists of Mexico, the Central American region
south of Mexico, the South American continent, and the Caribbean region. Along with Asia, Latin
America has shown significant growth over the period called resources boom. With a surge in
direct investment in Latin America thanks to the development of resources and the Free Trade
Agreement, nominal GDP more than doubled during the period of over ten years from 2000, and
the real GDP growth rate from 2003 to 2008 was 5.1%. However, with the end of the boom, the
economic situation in Latin American countries has deteriorated.
The analytical institution has shown an average growth rate of 2.5% in real GDP for the region
between 2020 and 2041, and JADC is making forecasts based on that. However, the average
growth rate of real GDP from 2015 to 2019 is around 0.9%, and the medium-term economic
growth rate may be lower.
Airline mergers took place in Latin America as in the U.S. and Western Europe. Among major
airlines, cross-border mergers have taken place between AVIANCA in Colombia and TACA
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2022-2041
International Airlines in El Salvador, and between LAN Airlines in Chile and TAM Airlines in
Brazil, respectively. As a result, airlines in this region have been consolidated into two major
companies. Airline restructuring in Brazil made progress as the result of domestic mergers. In
addition, in this region too, the progress of airline liberalization has led to the founding of LCCs
such as GOL Airlines in Brazil, Interjet and Volaris in Mexico, and Viva Colombia in Colombia.
With regard to available seat capacity for intra-regional routes, the share of LCCs rose by about
12 times, from about 3% in 2001 to 35% in 2017. In addition, in order to attract domestic demand
in countries other than their own, LCCs have established subsidiaries to operate in those countries.

RPK Average
1000 Latin America
Growth Rate
2000- 2020-
800 2019 2041
297 LR 4.4% 2.5%
600 MR 6.9% 2.6%
74 SR 6.4% 4.2%
400 RR 4.5% 3.0%
173 276 Total 6.0% 2.9%
200 42
79 18 111
54 98
0 32
57 MR : Medium Range
41 SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR
RPK in the region in 2019

was 424×109 passenger
Latin America
100% kilometers, of which the
80% 37% 39% 36% Long Range market was the
53%
largest, accounting for 39%,
60% 8% 9%
10% followed by the Short Range
8%
40% 23%
25%
25% 33% market, which accounted for
20% 25%. Between 2020 and
29% 27% 22% 23%
2041, while the Short Range
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041 market share will grow,
relatively high, at an average
RR SR MR LR
rate of 4.2%, the other
markets will grow at an average rate ranging from 2.5% to 3.0%. It is expected that in 2041 the
Short Range market share will have expanded, while the Long Range market will have dwindled.
As for current fleet, narrowbody planes are the main airplanes and used for distances between
300 to 5,000 km. The number of planes being operated is particularly large in the range of 300 to
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2022-2041
1,300 km, followed by in the rage of up to 2,500 km. Widebody planes are used in the 6,500 to
13,000 km range, but not in large numbers. Turboprop planes are commonly used in the Regional
Range of less than 700 km, and their peak usage occurs around the 300 km range. Regional jets
are also used in the 400 to1,000 km range. In the Regional Range (up to 1,000 km), all three
categories other than widebody planes are used.
In the region, over the past 20 years from 2000 to 2019, GDP grew at an average growth rate
of 2.1 %, passenger demand at 6.0%, and cargo demand at 1.5%. With regard to the growth rates
from 2020 to 2041, while GDP will grow at the rate of 2.5%, and the rate of passenger demand
will decrease to 2.9%. Cargo demand is expected to grow at 1.4%.
Fleet Developments of Airlines in Latin America

3,000
2,724
802
Growth
1,922 35%
No. of Airplanes
2,000 New
0 Deliveries
% Replacement 2,307
1,505
1,000 65%
Retained 417
0
2,021 2041
Latin America Fleet New Deliveries Fleet New Deliveries

2021 2041 2022-2041 2021 2041 2022-2041

(Total) TP 371 355 282 (Total) JF 140 230 224

20-59 seats 46 0 0
60-99 seats 110 123 117
100-119 seats 66 254 234 GDP 2.5 ％
120-169 seats 936 920 670 RPK 2.9 ％
170-229 seats 117 655 630 RTK 1.4 ％
310-399 seats 17 56 50
(subtotal) Widebody Jets (WJ) 136 187 150
(Total) JP = RJ + NJ + WJ 1,411 2,139 1,801
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9.6 Africa

Isometric Circles: in 5,000km increments
Africa has abundant underground resources such as oil and minerals, and in recent years it has
been growing rapidly by focusing on development of these resources. Chinese investment in these
resources has been well reported. There is a view that air transport demand will grow because of
the expanding middle class which will serve as a driver force for consumption. However, there
are many problems which are yet to be solved such as poverty, regional conflicts and infectious
disease. GDP per capita in Africa as a whole will show little increase over the next 20 years, and
the increase in GDP is expected to be brought about by population growth.
RPK in the region in 2019 was 180×109 kilometers, of which the Long Range (4,500 km or
longer) market accounted for the most significant share at 37%. In this forecast, the Medium
Range market between 2020 and 2041 is expected to grow at an average rate of 4.8%, followed
by the Short Range market at 2.9%. RPK in 2041 is expected to be 341×109 passenger kilometers,
of which the Medium Range market will be the largest, accounting for 38%
Currently, narrowbody planes are the main airplanes in the region, and heavily used for
distances between 400 to 2,000 km. They are also used for distances up to 4,500 km, with
gradually decreasing in number as the distance increases. Turboprop planes are mainly used in
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2022-2041
the Regional Range of 700 km or less, and small planes and medium-sized planes are heavily
used with their peak of fleet density at the 200 km and in the range of 300 to 500 km, respectively.
Regional jets are also mainly used for distances around 500 km.
of 4.0%, passenger demand at 5.0%, and cargo demand at 9.0%. As for the growth rate forecast
from 2020 to 2041, GDP will grow at an average growth rate of 3.2%, passenger demand at 2.9%,
and cargo demand at 3.7%.

Africa RPK Average
400 Growth Rate
2000- 2020-
300 2019 2041
104 LR 4.3% 2.0%
MR 6.7% 4.5%
200 SR 5.2% 2.9%
131 RR 3.9% 1.4%
67
Total 5.0% 2.9%
100 40 50
29 13 27 74
39 LR : Long Range
14 22
11 13
SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR

Africa
100%
37% 30%
80% 43% 39%
60%
20% 27% 28% 38%
40%
21% 22% 22%
20% 22%
16% 13% 13% 9%
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041
RR SR MR LR
158
2022-2041
Fleet Developments of Airlines in Africa

2,000
1,378
1,226
No. of Airplanes
00% Growth 152 13%

New
1,000 Replacement Deliveries
994 1,146
87%
Retained 232
0
2,021 2041
Africa Fleet New Deliveries Fleet New Deliveries

2021 2041 2022-2041 2021 2041 2022-2041

(Total) TP 367 289 216 (Total) JF 78 140 131

20-59 seats 111 0 0
60-99 seats 70 60 53
100-119 seats 41 97 92 GDP 3.2 ％
120-169 seats 405 350 262 RPK 2.9 ％
170-229 seats 6 239 239 RTK 3.7 ％
(subtotal) Narrowbody Jets (NJ) 452 686 593 Fleet 0.6 ％
310-399 seats 57 87 69
(Total) JP = RJ + NJ + WJ 781 949 799
159
2022-2041
9.7 CIS

Center: Moscow
Isometric Circles:
Yellow: Ukraine
Reddish purple: Cuba
Led by Russia which has overcome the economic crisis after the collapse of the former Soviet
Union and recorded 8 consecutive years of economic growth since 2000, the economies of the
CIS member countries, such as Ukraine*, which has tried to promote a transparent market
economy, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan which have shown steady economic development
utilizing their rich resources, have continued to grow. In Russia, the average wage rose from 2,200
rubles in 2000 to 12,500 rubles in 2007, and the number of people with middle-income increased
significantly. Unstable situation, however, has continued in recent years, due to falling crude oil
prices and Western economic sanctions over the Crimea crisis.
(*: Still included in the CIS, in this forecast, in order to maintain statistical continuity.)
As the region are spread out over a vast land area, and thus distances between cities are vast,
air transport is important for movement within the region. Accordingly, there has been strong
demand for air transport in the region. Especially during the ten years period from 2004 to 2014,
when economy in the region grew steadily, the average growth rate of RPK reached 8.9%.
Although it has stopped growing since then due to the economic slowdown in emerging
countries, RPK in 2019 seems to be 290×109 passenger kilometers.
160
2022-2041

RPK Average
700 CIS
Growth Rate
600 2000- 2020-
119 2019 2041
500 LR 7.6% 2.8%
400 MR 9.4% 3.0%
248 SR 9.4% 3.8%
300 RR 6.1% 3.8%
65
200 Total 8.6% 3.2%
129
171
22 38 76
0 13
7
6 SR : Short Range
RR SR MR LR

100%
CIS
27% 24% 22% 20%
80%
60% 44% 42%

39% 43%
40%
20% 23% 25% 26% 29%
11% 8% 7% 8%
0%
1999 2009 2019 ・・・ 2041
RR SR MR LR
Of RPK, the Medium Range (2,000 to 4,500 km) market accounted for 44%, followed by the
Short Range (1,000 to 2,000 km) market accounting for 26% in 2019. For 2041, it is expected
that the average growth rate of the Regional and Short Range markets will be 2.3 and 2.1% each,
which is relatively high, and the growth rate of the Medium and Long Range markets will be 2.8
and 3.0% each. The mix of intra-regional shares of RPK in 2041 is expected to be almost the same
as that in 2019.
161
2022-2041
Fleet Developments of Airlines in CIS

3,000
2,243
2,000
No. of Airplanes
715
1,528 Growth
37% New
Deliveries
0% Replacement
1,916
1,000 1,201
63%
Retained 327
0
2,021 2041
of 4.0%, passenger demand at 8.6%, and cargo demand at 11.7%. As for the average growth rate
from 2020 to 2041, it is expected that GDP will grow at the rate of 2.3%, passenger demand at
3.2% and cargo demand at 6.0%.
CIS Fleet New Deliveries Fleet New Deliveries

2021 2041 2022-2041 2021 2041 2022-2041

(Total) TP 222 267 213 (Total) JF 169 219 194

20-59 seats 51 0 0
60-99 seats 191 181 136
100-119 seats 54 173 168 GDP 2.3 ％
120-169 seats 527 623 496 RPK 3.2 ％
170-229 seats 165 521 475 RTK 6.0 ％
(subtotal) Narrowbody Jets (NJ) 746 1,317 1,139 Fleet 1.9 ％
310-399 seats 65 103 88
(Total) JP = RJ + NJ + WJ 1,137 1,757 1,509
Among aircraft operated by airlines in the CIS, aircraft made in the former Soviet
Union have decreased in number, and aircraft made in Western bloc countries have been
mainly used. As of the end of 2021, the actual number of aircraft operated by airlines in
the CIS* was 1,359, out of which wide-body jets (149 units) were all made outside the
CIS (by either Boeing or Airbus), and 98% of narrow-body jets (746 units) were made
outside the CIS. In addition, many passenger aircraft made in Western bloc countries,
making up a majority of aircraft operated in Russia, were obtained under lease contracts.
(*: Sum of aircraft in service and aircraft in storage which are likely to return to
162
2022-2041
service soon).
In such a situation, the invasion of Ukraine broke out, and various countries have
started economic sanctions against Russia.
Aircraft leasing companies in Western bloc countries canceled their lease contracts for
aircraft made with airlines in Russia under instruction from their respective government
authorities, and tried to have the leased aircrafts to return to them. However, the
Russian government “captured” such aircraft after legislating in a hurry.
It seems that because the leased aircraft (financial assets) were captured in this
manner, future leases or financial services for Russia will be extremely high-risk
business for leasing companies or financial institutions in Western bloc countries.
Therefore, in the future, it will become difficult for financial institutions in Western bloc
countries to implement financial services for Russian airlines, and Russian airlines
cannot hope to procure aircraft on a dollar or euro basis. It is highly likely that demand
will be covered only by aircraft available on the basis of the ruble and the currencies of
Russia-friendly countries. It is conceivable there will be a revival of passenger jets made
in Russia (Tupolev, Ilyushin, etc.), the promotion of co-development with China
(technology transfer), or the like.
In view of compensation for personal/property damage caused to Ukraine, land
restoration, war crimes that are becoming apparent, etc., the sanctions are likely to last
for a long time. Under these conditions, much of the potential demand for aircraft
expected to occur in the Russian market in the future is highly unlikely to be realized,
at least from the perspective of the workload of aircraft manufacturers in Western bloc
countries.
Number of aircraft in operation in CIS at the end of 2021*

Planes made in
Planes
former Eastern
made in CIS
Total block
Seat Units Units Share Units Share Tu204 Yak42 SSJ100 An148 Yak40 An24 An26 An74 An140 Il18 L410 An28 An38 An3
TP small 15-40 94 77 82% 14 15% 63 6 2 6
TP large 41-100 128 83 65% 79 62% 61 18 2 1 1
RJ small 20-60 51 10 20% 10 20% 10
RJ large 61-100 191 142 74% 139 73% 139 3
NJ 101-230 746 14 2% 14 2% 2 12
WJ 231- 149 0 0% 0 0%
1359 326 24% 256 19%
（* : Sum of ”In-Service" and early returnable "Storage" planes.）
Besides, among the aircraft owned by airlines in the CIS, apart from wide-body jets
and narrow-body jets, small-sized passenger turboprops (15 to 40 seats) including many
L410s are used, 82% of which were made in former Eastern bloc countries. However, the
Czech Republic (L410) is already an EU member state (since 2004), and except for this
163
2022-2041
aircraft, it is likely that there will be a small number of aircraft whose spares, etc., can
be procured in the CIS.
65% of large-sized passenger turboprops (41-100 seats) including many An-24/-26 are
made in former Eastern bloc countries. The Antonov Design Bureau is a Ukrainian
manufacturer, but since the An-24/-26 is a model that has been manufactured for a long
time since the Soviet era, it is possible to continue operation of them if replacement parts
have been in production within the Russian region.
74% of large regional jets (61 to 100 seats) are made in the region because of the
SSJ100.
Besides, the supply of spares for aircraft made in Western bloc countries was already
cut off. Hence, aircraft that can be maintained over the medium-to-long term by
obtaining spares in the future or by making them in the CIS region and other means,
will account for about 20% of all aircraft even if estimated on the high side. Such planes
may consist of large-sized turboprops and large-sized regional jets.
164
2022-2041
10. Airplane Sales Forecast

This section shows the number of units (passenger planes and freight planes) to be newly built
and delivered during the current forecast period (2022-2041), as well as the sales amount and
share.
The sales amount is calculated by multiplying each price by the number of units delivered by
model determined in the demand forecast calculation, and the price for each model is mainly
based on the sales price each manufacturer makes available to the public. These prices are so-
called “catalog prices”, and the prices in actual contracts are said to be 60% or 70% of these, but
since individual contract details are not disclosed, catalog prices will be used for our calculations.
10.1 Jet Airplane (Passenger and Cargo) Sales Forecast
Jet Airplane Sales Forecast by Region 2019 Price

No. of Airplanes US$ billion
15,000 3,000
13,458
Total
36,342 Airplanes
5,724 US$ billion
2,152
10,000 2,000
9,026
7,498
1,241
1,174
5,000 1,000
559
2,203
1,815
1,538
234 234
804 130
0 0
North America
North America Europe
Europe Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific Middle
Middle East
East Latin
LatinAmerica
America Africa
Africa CIS
CIS
＊Total of passenger jets and jet freighters
Jet Airplane Sales Share by Region （Passenger & Cargo）
Latin America 2%
Middle East
North America 22% Europe 21% Asia Pacific 38%
10%
Africa 4% CIS 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
165
2022-2041
10.2 Passenger Jet Sales Forecast
2019 Price
No. of Airplanes Passenger Jet Sales Forecast by Size US$ billion
20,000 2,000
Regional Jet Narrow body 1,846 Wide body
Total
16,000 35,644 Units 1,600
5,471 US$ billion
1,074 1,070 1,168

12,000 1,200
8,000 800
13,484
3,660 3,075
4,000 10,277 400
2,821
2,327 202
110
0 0 0 0
0 0
20-60 61-100 101-120 121-170 171-230 231-310 311-400 400 over
Size ( No. of Seats )
Most sales will be seen in the 171-230-seat class. The number of delivered aircraft will be only
slightly more than the 121-170-seat class aircraft, but the sales amount will be higher due to the
larger body size and higher per unit price.
Passenger Jet Sales Share

20-60 61-100 (Seats)
400 over 0% 2%
0% 101-120
4%
311-400
21% 121-170
20%
Widebody
41% Narrowbody
57%
231-310
19%
171-230
34%
Narrowbody aircraft cost less per unit, but the number of airplanes is larger. For that reason,
their total sales amount exceeds that of widebody aircraft.
166
2022-2041
Passenger Jet Sales Forecast by Region 2019 Price

No. of Airplanes US$ billion
15,000 3,000
13,263 Total
35,644 Airplanes
5,471 US$ billion
2,094
10,000 2,000
8,718
7,427
1,156 1,157
5,000 1,000
514
2,127 1,801
1,509
225 206
799 119
0 0
North America
Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East
Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin
LatinAmerica
America Africa
Africa CIS
CIS
＊Total of passenger jets and jet freighters
In terms of the number of aircraft delivered by region, North America, Europe, and China are
the largest in that order, and sales by region are highest in Europe ($ 1.16 trillion), North America
($ 1.16 trillion), and China ($ 0.97 trillion).
No.of Airplanes
Passenger Jet Fleet and Delivery Forecast by Region
18,000

16,000 End of 2021 24,055
End of 2041 41,358
2022-2041 35,644
12,000
13,263 New Deliveries
9,691
10,000
8,554
Retained
8,000
6,000
8,718 7,427
6,172
4,000
6,949 7,729
2,441 2,139
4,709 3,029 949 1,757
2,000 3,911
2,564 2,176 2,127 1,801
1,509
1,480 1,469 665 1,339 1,411 799 1,137
973 1,127 589 657 512 564 456 722 182 526 314 338 781
0 203 143 100 150 248
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
North North South Middle Latin

Europe Asia Japan China east east South
Oceania East America Africa CIS
America Pacific Asia Asia
Asia
167
2022-2041
10.3 Passenger Turboprop Airplane Sales Forecast

Compared to the jet airliner market, the number of new deliveries of turboprop airliners over
the next 20 years is only 7.7%, and sales are only 1.42%.
Passenger Turboprop Airplane Sales Forecast 2019 Price

No. of Airplanes by Size US$ billion
2,000 40
Total
2,751 Units
65 US$ billion
1,500 30
1,000 20
33
1,135
500 10
612 11 13
328 392
284 6
3
0 0
15-19 20-40 41-60 61-80 81-100
Size ( No. of Seats )
Passenger Turboprop Sales Forecast

2019 Price
No. of Airplane by Region US$ billion
2000 75
Total
2,751 Airplanes
65 US$ billion
1600 60
1,439
1200 45
800 30
35
400 15
298 271 282

7 7 216 213
32 0.9 5 5 5
0 0
North
North America
America Europe
Europe Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific Middle East
Middle East Latin
Latin America
America Africa
Africa CIS
CIS
168
2022-2041
Demand for turboprop aircraft is highest in the Asia-Pacific region, with Southeast Asia and
South Asia (mainly India) being the two largest, followed by Oceania. There is very little demand
in China. With the exception of a few regions, turboprop aircraft are so in steady demand in each
regions that they appear to be essential links for the local residents of each region.
Passenger Turboprop Fleet and Delivery Forecast by Region

No. of Airplanes
2,000
1,777 Total Fleet :

End of 2021 2,897
End of 2041 3,476
2022-2041 2,751
1,200
1,439 New Delivery
Retained
800
625 662
382 360 1,000 363 355 289

493 575
400
267
521 282
298 381 271 300
338 371 367 216 213
283 261 339 46 222
84 89 27 13 132 87 32 73 73 54
55 26 31
25 12 37 63 35
0 18 14
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
2021
2041
North Asia Japan China North South South Oceania Middle Latin
America
Europe
Pacific east east Asia East America Africa CIS
Asia Asia
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2022-2041
10.4 Airplane Sales

(total：passenger jets, passenger turboprops, and jet freighters)
Airplane Sales Forecast by Region 2019 Price

No. of Airplanes US$ Billion
20,000 4,000
Total
39,093 Airplanes
5,789 US$ billion
14,897
15,000 3,000
2,187
9,324
10,000 2,000
7,769
1,248
1,181
5,000 1,000
560
2,235 2,097 1,751
239 1,020 135 238
0 0
North America
Europe Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific Middle
Middle East
East Latin
LatinAmerica
America Africa
Africa CIS
CIS
＊Total of passenger jets, passenger turboprops and jet freighters
Market Share of Sales and Airplane Demand by Region 2022‐2041

( Passenger Airplanes (Jet+TBP) and Cargo Airplanes )
Latin America 5%
CIS 4%
New Middle East
North America 24% Europe 20% Asia‐Pacific 38%
Deliveries 6%
New Deliveries 39,093 Units Africa 3%
Total Sales 5,789 US$ billion Africa 2%
Middle East
Total Sales North America 22% Europe 20% Asia‐Pacific 38%
10%
CIS 4%
Latin America 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
For new freighters, 698 aircraft will be delivered and sales will be $ 253 billion, of which the
most demanded large aircraft sales at $ 125 billion and medium-sized wide-body aircraft at $ 126
billion.
170
2022-2041
11. Aero Engine Sales Forecast
This forecast covers new engine deliveries and the associated sales amount for the forecast period
(2022-2041). Aero engine demand is comprised of two segments: demand for engines installed on
airplanes at the time of delivery, and demand for spares (finished products). The former is calculated
by multiplying the number of airplanes newly delivered by the number of engines mounted on the
airplanes, and the latter is calculated by multiplying the number of engines mounted on airplanes at
the time of delivery by a spare ratio of 10%. An engine is the most expensive equipment to purchase
among the components of an airplane, and the engine price is estimated to account for about 20% of
the price of an airplane.
Aero Engine Delivery and Sales Forecast 2019 Price

No. of Engines (US$ billion)
by Thrust Rating
80,000 800
No.of Engines Value
(US$billion)
Turboprop 6,055 14
60,000 600
Jet 80,747 1,281
Total 86,802 1,295
40,000 400
59,523 684
511
14,473
20,000 200
4,491
6,055 14 2,260 11
74
0 0
TurboProp <12 12-35 35-65 65-115 Thrust
ATR42/72 CRJ700/900/1000 A318,A319,A320,A321 A300-600,A310 A380 (×1,000 lbs)
DHC-8 E-Jets E1 A340-200/-300, 737 A340-500/-600 A350,A330
L410 ARJ21 A220-100/-300 747,757RS,767RS 777,787
* Including 10% of total number of engines installed on MRJ M90/M100
airplanes as spare engines. E-Jets E2
Aero Engine Delivery and Sales Forecast 2019 Price

No. of Engines
by Region (US$ billion)
40,000 800
Total
32,441 86,802 units
1,295 US$ billion
30,000 600
19,850 16,969
20,000 400
494
10,000 200
289 263 4,768 4,601 3,840
56 2,252 59
133 31
0 0
North
America Europe Middle
Asia-Pacific Middle
Asia-Pacific EastEast Latin
Latin America
America Africa
Africa CIS
CIS
* Including 10% of total number of engines installed on airplanes as spare engines.
171
2022-2041
Intentionally Blank
172
2022-2041
12. Methodology
Passenger Forecast Methodology
The forecast flow is divided into three parts ('air traffic', 'Open ASK', and 'aircraft sales
forecast') as shown below:
In the forecast of 'air traffic', air passenger demand (RPK) is obtained by econometric methods
as a function of GDP and Passenger Yield because the correlation with income and fare is clear.
However, RPK is also affected by major policy changes such as the deregulation and promotion
of CO2 reduction measures, by entry of new formats such as LCCs, and by competition with other
transportation modes such as high-speed rail. Therefore, JADC not only analyzes based on actual
data using a causal model using GDP and Passenger Yield, but also predicts RPK in consideration
of the effects of possible events in the future. The forecasts are made by classifying RPK into
regional categories (13 categories) and distance categories (4 categories).
In the 'Open ASK', the transportation capacity (ASK) and its distribution (seat size,
transportation distance) required to actually transport the predicted RPK are calculated. In
addition, based on the actual retirement age of passenger planes, the decrease in the transportation
capacity due to the existing planes is predicted, and the transportation capacity that needs to be
added (delivered) in the future is calculated. The Forecasts are made by classifying ASK into seat
size categories (15 categories in total) in addition to regional categories (13 categories) and
distance categories (4 categories).
In the 'Aircraft sales forecast', the results of the Open ASK are assigned to specific models of
passenger planes based on the performance of each model such as the number of seats and cruising
range, and on the sales force of the manufacturer. The number of each model is calculated for
each category and aggregated.
173
2022-2041
Cargo Forecast Methodology

Cargo demand forecasting flow is divided into three parts (traffic forecast, capacity forecast
and freighter forecast) as shown below:
Freighter Demand Forecast Flow Chart
Traffic Forecast Capacity Forecast Freighter Forecast
Economic
Forecast Fleet Lower Hold Passenger Converted
(GDP) Analysis Capacity Forecast Freighter
Cargo Cargo Freighter Production

Freighter
Demand Capacity Capacity Freighter
Demand Deliveries
needed needed
Yield Network Retirement

Forecast Analysis
Air cargo demand is known to have a correlation with GDP and cargo yields as is the case with
passenger plane. JADC forecasts air cargo demand by analyzing actual data basing on causal
models using GDP and cargo yields and by evaluating various factors that affect the air cargo
demand considering present and future trends. After consolidating the global flight routes into 33
markets, the air cargo demand is forecasted by market.
A forecast for supplied transport capacity of freighters is calculated using macroeconomic
forecasting methodology (Top Down Analysis), in which the forecast is categorized by region (7
regions) and payload (3 segments). Air cargo is transported by freighters or by the lower hold of
passenger planes. The forecasts of cargo transport demand (RTK) and supplied transport capacity
(ATK) of freighters can be calculated by deducting those carried by lower hold of passenger
planes from the forecasted air cargo demand. The RTK and ATK to be carried by passenger planes
are estimated based on the forecasted passenger plane fleet.
Cargo transport volume (CTV) = CTV carried by lower hold of passenger planes
+ CTV carried by freighters
Due to analyzing the fleet composition by airplane type and flight routes and considering the
service life of freighters, the supplied transport capacity needed in the future is forecasted by
category. The forecasted number of aircraft to be delivered is calculated by allocating the supplied
transport capacity needed in the future to specific type of airplanes in view of airplane
performance, including payloads and cruising distance, and the ratio of newly-built freighters and
converted freighters.
174
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Appendix A: Definitions of Airplane Segments
Passenger Turboprops
15－19 seats DHC6-400, Do228, BE1900, L410
20－39 seats DHC8-200, Saab 340, Do328, Su-80
40－59 seats ATR42, DHC8-300, An-140, MA60/600
60－79 seats ATR72, DHC8-400, Il-114
80－99 seats (ATR92)
Passenger Jets
Regional Jets
20－39 seats ERJ135, Do328JET
40－59 seats CRJ100/200, ERJ140/145
60－79 seats CRJ700, E170, E175, MSJ M100, An-148
80－99 seats CRJ900/1000, E175E2, E190/E2, MSJ M90, ARJ21, SSJ100
Narrowbody
100－119 seats A220-100, E195/E2, A318, 737-600
120－169 seats A319ceo/neo, A320ceo/neo, 737-700/-800, 737MAX-7/-8,
A220-300, C919-200, MS21-200/-300, Tu234
170－229 seats A321ceo/neo～XLR, 737-900ER, 737MAX-9/-10, 757,
Widebody
230－309 seats 787-8/-9, A330ceo/neo, 767, A300, A310, Il-96
310－399 seats A350-900/-1000, 787-10, 777-8/9, 777, A340
400－499 seats 747
>500 seats A380
Note: Aircraft are segmented according to number of seats based on 1-class seat configuration for 99 seats or less,
2-class seat configuration for 100–229 seats, and 3-class seat configuration for 230 seats or more.
Jet Freighters
Narrowbody (< 50 ton) A320, A321, BAe146, CRJ100/200, DC-8, DC-9, MD-80,
707, 727, 737, 757, Tu-204
Medium Widebody (40-70 ton) A300, A310, A330, DC-10-10, 767, Il-76
Large (>70 ton) DC-10-30/-40, MD-11, 747, 777, An-124, An-225
175
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Appendix B: Definitions of Aero Engine Segments
Thrust
Thrust
Category Engine Manufacturer Aircraft Type (No. of Engines)
(x1000 lb)
(x1000 lb)
65～ 115 CF6-80E1 GE 67～ 72 A330(2)
GEnx GE 67～ 73 B787(2), B747-8(4)
GE90 GE 75～ 115 B777(2)
GP7000 GE/PW 76～ 82 A380(4)
PW4000-100 PW 64～ 70 A330(2)
PW4000-112 PW 74～ 98 B777(2)
TRENT 700 RR 67～ 71 A330(2)
TRENT 800 RR 75～ 95 B777(2)
TRENT 900 RR 68～ 84 A380(4)
TRENT 1000 RR 64～ 74 B787(2)
TRENT 7000 RR 68～ 72 A330neo(2)
TRENT XWB RR 83～ 92 A350XWB(2)
CF6-50 GE 46～ 54 B747(4), A300(2)
CF6-80A GE 48～ 50 B767(2), A310(2)
CF6-80C2 GE 52～ 62 B747(4), B767(2), A300-600(2), A310(2)
MD-11(3)
JT9D PW 43～ 56 B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2)
PW4000-94 PW 52～ 68 B747(4), B767(2), A300-600(2), A310(2)
MD-11(3)
RB211-524G/H RR 58～ 61 B747-400(4), B767-300(2)
TRENT 500 RR 56 A340-500/600(4)
PW2000 PW 38～ 42 B757(2)
RB211-535C/E4 RR 37～ 43 B757(2)
12～ 35 V2500 IAE 22～ 30 A319(2), A320(2), A321(2), MD-90(2)
CFM56 CFM INT'L 18～ 34 B737-300/400/500(2),
B737-600/700/800/900(2)
A318(2), A319(2), A320(2), A321(2),
A340-200/300(4)
LEAP-1 CFM INT'L 18～ 33 A319neo(2), A320neo(2), A321neo(2),
737MAX(2), C919(2)
PW1000G PW 15～ 35 MSJ M100/90(2), A220-100/300(2), MS-21(2)
A319neo(2), A320neo(2), A321neo(2)
E175E2(2), E190E2(2), E195E2(2)
JT8D-200 PW 18～ 21 MD-80(2)
PW6000 PW 20～ 23 A318(2)
BR700 BMW/RR 18～ 22 717(2)
SMI46 SNECMA/NPO 17.4 SSJ100(2)
～ 12 CF34 GE 8.6～ 20 CRJ100/200(2), CRJ700(2), CRJ900(2), CRJ1000(2)
E170(2), E175(2), E190(2), E195(2),
ARJ21(2)
AE3007 ALLISON 7.2～ 12 ERJ135(2), ERJ140(2), ERJ145(2)
PW300 PWC 4.2～ 5.7 328JET(2)
Turboprop CT7 GE 1700～ 1940 SHP CN235(2), SAAB340(2), L610(2)
PW100 PWC 2000～ 5000 SHP ATR42(2), ATR72(2),
DHC8-100(2)/300(2)/400(2), Do328(2)
EMB120(2)
PT6A PWC 700～ 1300 SHP DHC-6-400(2), BEECH1900
TPE 331 GARRETT 700～ 1100 SHP CASA212(2), Metro(2), Do228(2)
176
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Appendix C: Air Passenger Traffic
9 Average
RPK ( ×10 person km)
Region Growth Rate
1999 2019 2041 2020-2041
North America 1,121 1,923 4,211 3.6%
Europe 928 1,975 4,770 4.1%
Western Europe 912 1,877 4,399 3.9%

Eastern Europe 16 98 372 6.3%
Asia-Pacific 714 2,903 7,576 4.5%
Japan 166 204 396 3.1%

China 130 1,333 3,516 4.5%
Northeast Asia 98 232 375 2.2%
Southeast Asia 175 648 1,815 4.8%
South Asia 46 275 1,078 6.4%
Oceania 99 211 396 2.9%
Middle East 86 774 1,707 3.7%
Latin America 139 442 836 2.9%
Africa 68 180 341 2.9%
CIS 55 290 584 3.2%
World 3,111 8,486 20,025 4.0%
177
2022-2041
Appendix D: Air Cargo Traffic
9 Average
RTK ( ×10 ton km)
Region Growth Rate
1999 2019 2021 2041 2020-2041※
North America 38 62 74 133 3.6%
Europe 31 52 54 99 3.0%
Asia-Pacific 43 88 88 167 3.0%
Middle East 3 33 37 83 4.3%
Latin America 5 7 6 9 1.4%
Africa 1 5 5 10 3.5%
CIS 1 8 9 27 5.6%
World 122 254 272 529 3.4%
※Appendix D shows the average growth rate from 2020 to

2041 based on the end of 2019, avoiding the disturbance of
COVID-19.
178
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Appendix E: Airplane Demand
 Changes in Airplanes and Sales by Region
Region 2021 Fleet Removed New Deliveries 2041 Fleet Value (US$B)
North America Total 8,519 6,634 9,324 11,209 1,248

Passenger Turboprop 521 437 298 382 7
Passenger Jet 6,949 5,976 8,718 9,691 1,156
Jet Freighter 1,049 790 308 1,136 85
Europe Total 5,490 3,890 7,769 9,369 1,181
Passenger Jet 4,709 3,582 7,427 8,554 1,157
Jet Freighter 400 307 71 455 17
Asia-Pacific Total 9,139 5,508 14,897 18,528 2,187
Passenger Turboprop 1,000 662 1,439 1,777 35
Passenger Jet 7,729 5,165 13,263 15,827 2,094
Jet Freighter 410 282 195 924 58
Middle East Total 1,468 933 2,235 2,770 560
Passenger Jet 1,339 1,025 2,127 2,441 514
Jet Freighter 94 34 76 283 45
Latin America Total 1,922 1,295 2,097 2,724 239
Passenger Jet 1,411 1,073 1,801 2,139 225
Africa Total 1,226 868 1,020 1,378 135
Passenger Jet 781 631 799 949 119
CIS Total 1,528 1,036 1,751 2,243 238
Passenger Jet 1,137 889 1,509 1,757 206
Jet Freighter 169 144 29 219 28
World Total 29,292 20,164 39,093 48,221 5,789
Passenger Turboprop 2,897 2,172 2,751 3,476 65
Passenger Jet 24,055 18,341 35,644 41,358 5,471
Jet Freighter 2,340 1,760 698 3,387 253
(Cargo aircraft are for new aircraft only ↑)
 Changes in Airplanes and Sales by Airplane Capacity
Airplane Category 2021 Fleet Removed New Deliveries 2041 Fleet Value (US$B)
Passenger Turboprop
15-40 seats 1,238 1,152 940 1,026 14
41-60 seats 509 433 284 360 6
More than 60 seats 1,150 587 1,527 2,090 12
Total 2,897 2,172 2,751 3,476 65
Passenger Jet
20-60 seats 1,036 1,036 0 0 0
61-100 seats 2,393 2,098 2,327 2,622 86
Regional Jet 3,429 3,134 2,327 2,622 86
101-120 seats 522 409 2,821 2,934 22
121-170 seats 12,555 9,211 10,277 13,621 124
171-230 seats 3,188 2,375 13,484 14,297 1,846
Narrowbody 16,265 11,995 26,582 30,852 1,992
231-310 seats 2,358 1,711 3,660 4,307 3
311-400 seats 1,692 1,259 3,075 3,508 1,168
More than 400 seats 311 242 0 69 0
Widebody 4,361 3,212 6,735 7,884 1,171
Total 24,055 18,341 35,644 41,358 3,249
Jet Freighter
Narrow Body 864 851 0 1,314 2
Medium Widebody 765 536 391 1,034 126
Large 711 373 307 1,039 125
Total 2,340 1,760 698 3,387 253
(Cargo aircraft are for new aircraft only ↑)
179
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 Fleet and New Deliveries by Region

2021 Fleet
North America Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin America Africa CIS World
Passenger Turboprop
15-40 seats 256 143 347 6 216 176 94 1,238
41-60 seats 97 40 141 6 64 67 94 509
More than 60 seats 168 198 512 23 91 124 34 1,150
Total 521 381 1,000 35 371 367 222 2,897
Passenger Jet
20-60 seats 770 39 11 8 46 111 51 1,036
61-100 seats 1,313 297 366 46 110 70 191 2,393
Regional Jet (subtotal) 2,083 336 377 54 156 181 242 3,429
101-120 seats 179 115 52 15 66 41 54 522
121-170 seats 2,818 2,787 4,590 492 936 405 527 12,555
171-230 seats 1,227 602 989 82 117 6 165 3,188
Narrowbody (subtotal) 4,224 3,504 5,631 589 1,119 452 746 16,265
231-310 seats 413 470 961 230 119 91 74 2,358
311-400 seats 229 338 665 321 17 57 65 1,692
More than 400 seats 0 61 95 145 0 0 10 311
Widebody (subtotal) 642 869 1,721 696 136 148 149 4,361
Total 6,949 4,709 7,729 1,339 1,411 781 1,137 24,055
Jet Freighter
Narrow Body 291 176 195 5 102 45 50 864
Medium Widebody 449 121 71 17 32 20 55 765
Large 309 103 144 72 6 13 64 711
Total 1,049 400 410 94 140 78 169 2,340
2041 Fleet
Passenger Turboprop
15-40 seats 145 80 429 4 153 84 131 1,026
41-60 seats 30 27 147 2 66 40 48 360
More than 60 seats 207 253 1,201 40 136 165 88 2,090
Total 382 360 1,777 46 355 289 267 3,476
Passenger Jet
20-60 seats 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
61-100 seats 1,457 236 531 34 123 60 181 2,622
101-120 seats 1,032 738 548 92 254 97 173 2,934
121-170 seats 2,647 2,613 5,864 604 920 350 623 13,621
171-230 seats 3,235 3,368 5,805 474 655 239 521 14,297
Narrowbody (subtotal) 6,914 6,719 12,217 1,170 1,829 686 1,317 30,852
231-310 seats 927 879 1,666 432 131 116 156 4,307
311-400 seats 393 712 1,398 759 56 87 103 3,508
More than 400 seats 0 8 15 46 0 0 0 69
Widebody (subtotal) 1,320 1,599 3,079 1,237 187 203 259 7,884
Total 9,691 8,554 15,827 2,441 2,139 949 1,757 41,358
Jet Freighter
Narrow Body 297 219 454 25 171 78 70 1,314
Medium Widebody 580 137 125 40 52 31 69 1,034
Large 259 99 345 218 7 31 80 1,039
Total 1,136 455 924 283 230 140 219 3,387
2022-2041 New Deliveries

Passenger Turboprop
15-40 seats 143 75 403 4 147 73 95 940
41-60 seats 22 23 108 2 47 36 46 284
More than 60 seats 133 173 928 26 88 107 72 1,527
Total 298 271 1,439 32 282 216 213 2,751
Passenger Jet
20-60 seats 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
61-100 seats 1,278 203 506 34 117 53 136 2,327
101-120 seats 997 704 535 91 234 92 168 2,821
121-170 seats 2,179 1,907 4,269 494 670 262 496 10,277
171-230 seats 3,068 3,216 5,403 453 630 239 475 13,484
Narrowbody (subtotal) 6,244 5,827 10,207 1,038 1,534 593 1,139 26,582
231-310 seats 844 754 1,373 359 100 84 146 3,660
311-400 seats 352 643 1,177 696 50 69 88 3,075
More than 400 seats 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Widebody (subtotal) 1,196 1,397 2,550 1,055 150 153 234 6,735
Total 8,718 7,427 13,263 2,127 1,801 799 1,509 35,644
Jet Freighter (New Build)

Narrow Body 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Medium Widebody 259 51 49 2 12 2 16 391
Large 49 20 146 74 2 3 13 307
Total 308 71 195 76 14 5 29 698
Jet Freighter (Convert)

Narrow Body 319 166 393 20 127 67 33 1,125
Medium Widebody 114 8 20 12 0 7 26 187
Large 93 14 62 43 1 15 31 259
Total 526 188 475 75 128 89 90 1,571
180
2022-2041
Appendix F: Evaluation of Secondary Deliveries
This forecast covers the next 20 years. The recent average retirement age of passenger planes
has been around 25 years, which is longer than 20 years, so the number of short-lived planes
which would be delivered within the forecast period and would retire within the period, has not
been counted in the main part of this forecast. However, in recent years, cases of retirement at
under 20 years have begun to increase. These are presumed to be airplane that were frequently
operated on short-distance domestic flights of LCCs or FSCs, and in view of the recent rise of
LCCs, it is expected that the number of young retired planes of this type would increase in the
future.
In order for airlines to continue their transportation business, if one airplane is retired, one new
plane will need to be replenished. Therefore, the retirement of the short-lived airplanes in the
forecast period will in turn lead to secondary demand for airplanes. Here, of the passenger planes
which would be delivered within the forecast period (i.e. the primary deliveries), the number of
planes to be retired within the period is predicted, and the number is shown in light orange in the
figure as the secondary deliveries.
(The secondary deliveries are not included in the number of units in the main part of this forecast.)
Passenger Jet Fleet and Delivery Forecast by Seat Category

16000
11274 13975 2022‐2041 Total Deliveries
13621 14297 2041 Fleet
14000
2021 Fleet 12555
12000 2022‐2041 Delivery (Primary)
2022‐2041 Delivery (Secondary)

10000
13484
10277
8000 2022‐2041 Retired 9211
(Primary)
6000 2041 Remaining
3803 3259
2442 2972 4307 3508
4000 3188
2622 2934
2393 997 2358 1692
0 3660 0
2000 1036 0 3344
2375 3075
2098 2327 522 2821 1711 311 69
1259
1036 113 813 491 143 242 0
0 0 0 295 115 409 647 433 184 0
0 113 151 69
20〜
20 〜 6060 61〜
61 〜 100
100 101 〜120
101 120 121 〜170
121 170 171 〜230
171 230 231 〜310
231 310 311 〜400
311 400 400 over
400 over
‐2000 seats seats 〜 seats 〜 seats ( seats ) 〜 seats 〜 seats 〜 seats seats
Of the secondary deliveries, 1,639 units will be narrow-body airplanes with 101 to 230 seats
and 327 units will be widebody airplanes with 231 or more seats, accounting for 6.2% and 4.9%
of the primary deliveries, respectively.
(Fleet: passenger planes that are in service at the beginning of the forecast period* (i.e. initial fleet))
(Remaining: passenger planes which will be left in service at the end of the period* out of the initial fleet)
(Primary retired: passenger planes which will be retired during the period* out of the initial Fleet)
(Primary deliveries: passenger planes to be delivered to replace for the primary retired planes)
(Secondary retired: passenger planes which will be retired during the period* out of the primary deliveries)
(Secondary deliveries: passenger planes to be delivered to replace for the secondary retired planes) (* 2022-2041)
181
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Appendix G: Changes in Cargo Transportation Results by Major Airlines (2006-2019)
Changes in Cargo Transportation by Major Airlines

( ×10 9 ) (2006-2020)
RTK by Lower Hold of Passenger Planes
10
Emirates Qatar Airways
Emirates
Air France British Airways
Lufthansa Federal Express
8
Japan Airlines All Nippon Airways
Qatar Singapore Airlines Cathay Pacific Airways
China Airlines EVA Air
6
China Eastern Airlines China Southern Airlines
Singapore
Cathay Air China Korean Air
BA ANA A.China
LH 5 4Source : IATA WATS
4
AF 3
C.South
JAL
KAL
2
China AL
C.East EVA FedEx
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
RTK by Freighters ( ×10 ) 9
There are two types of freight transportation by airlines: one is by freighter, and the other is by
using the cargo compartment (Lower Hold) * of passenger flights to transport general freight. At
airlines, the average size of airplanes is increasing due to wide-body aircraft, and there is room
for capacity and weight even in the cargo compartment of passenger flights. If the surplus capacity
is used to transport general freight other than passengers' luggage, it is possible to make a profit
from freight transportation at a small additional cost. In addition, it is easy to deal with
fluctuations in the busyness of transportation demand seen in air freight transportation.
In recent years, major airlines in Middle East region have taken positive measures in freight
transportation and have greatly increased their RTK.
On the other hand, there are many cases where even major airlines are struggling to maintain
the total RTK (by freighters plus by cargo compartment of passenger planes), reducing the
freighters only to shift to the cargo compartment of passenger planes. Some airlines have
completely abolished freighters and only transport cargo by the cargo compartment of passenger
planes.
(*: lower hold cargo or belly cargo)
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Volume of Air Cargo Transported by World Airlines

（1990‐2020：scheduled air service only）
200
RTK by Lower Hold of Passenger Planes
JADC (1990‐2004)
IATA WATS (2005‐ )
150
（ RTK：×109 ）
*** 2017
*** 〜 2019
2012
100 ×1.4
2009
×1.5
2020
1990 2004
50
Line indicating the level
of total RTK for 2021
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
RTK by Freighters（ RTK：×109 ）
For airlines in the world, RTK continued to increase in the 1990s under the leadership of
freighters, but since 2004, the trend has changed to increase transportation capacity by utilizing
the cargo compartments of passenger planes. RTK by freighter leveled off. However, the RTK by
freighter have resumed to increase around 2013. As of 2019, freighters accounted for 53% of the
total cargo RTK, and cargo compartments of passenger planes accounted for 47%.
For air cargo transportation in 2020, in many airlines, a large amount of cargo
transportation volumes carried in lower holds of passenger flights were reduced due to
the significant decrease in the number of passenger flights. The provided cargo
transportation capacity (ACTK) and the cargo transportation result declined by 23.3%*
and 10.6%* from 2019, respectively. (*: IATA)
The transportation volumes carried in lower holds of passenger flights remained at
low level in the following year 2021, whereas air cargo transportation perked up with an
influx of transportation demand generated by the tightness of marine transportation
capacity, and the overall RTK (CTK) increased by 6.9% from the 2019 result. On the
other hand, the supplied ACTK remained at -10.9%* from 2019, resulting in a 61%
increase in cargo yield from 2019.
183
2022-2041
In this period, airlines tried to offer their transportation capacity by not only
strengthening freighter transportation but also operating numerous passenger planes
without passengers on board as cargo planes called “preighters”. Although the details
are unknown yet, it seems that the RTK by freighters (including preighters) in 2021, as
estimated from correspondences with the reduction in ASK after 2019, increased by
about 1.4 times the 2019 result (near the red line in the chart).
184
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Glossary of Terms
ASK or Available Seat Kilometers

Passenger transport capacity
The number of seats × Transportation distance (kilometers)
RPK or Revenue Passenger Kilometers

Transportation performance with revenue passengers on board and flown
The number of revenue passengers × Transportation distance (kilometers)
Passenger Load Factor

A numerical value indicating the ratio of the number of revenue passengers on board
to the total number of seats, that is, an indicator for measuring seat sales
Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) ÷ Available seat kilometers (ASK)
Different from a boarding rate which does not include non-revenue passengers
Yield
Revenue per kilometer (or per mile) for one passenger
Obtained by “Passenger revenue ÷ Revenue passenger kilometers”
In the case of cargo, revenue per kilometer (or per mile) for one ton of cargo
Obtained by “Cargo revenue ÷ Revenue ton kilometers”
CASK or Cost per ASK

An indicator for cost per unit passenger transport capacity
Obtained as cost per seat kilometer (ASK)
ATK or Available Ton Kilometers

Air cargo capacity
Payload capacity (tons) × Transportation distance (kilometers)
RTK or Revenue Ton Kilometers

Transportation performance with revenue cargo on board and flown
Revenue Cargo (tons) × Transportation distance (kilometers)
Cargo load factor

Revenue ton kilometers (RTK) ÷ Available ton kilometers (ATK)
185
2022-2041
Abbreviations
A4A Airlines for America

AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
ACI Airports Council International
AEA Association of European Airlines
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
BRICs Brazil, Russia, India, China
BTS Bureau of Transport Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation
CAPA Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
DOT United States Department of Transportation
EIA Energy Information Administration
EU European Union
FTA Free Trade Agreement
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IATA International Air Transport Association
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
IEA International Energy Agency
JADC Japan Aircraft Development Corporation
JETRO Japan External Trade Organization
JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency
MLIT Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
UIC Union Internationale des Chemins de fer
(International Union of Railways)
UN United Nations
UNWTO UN World Tourism Organization
186
2022-2041
Abbreviations (cont.)
ASK Available Seat Kilometers

ATK Available Ton Kilometers
CASK Cost per ASK
FFP Frequent Flyer Program
FSC Full-Service Carrier
LCC Low-Cost Carrier
RASK Revenue per ASK
RPK Revenue Passenger Kilometers
RTK Revenue Ton Kilometers
TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit
HOM Heavy and Oversize air cargo Market
COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019

NIID National Institute of Infectious Diseases
SARS Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
ETS Emission Trading Scheme

SAF Sustainable Aviation Fuel
GBAS Ground-Based Augmentation System

SBAS Satellite-Based Augmentation System
187
2022-2041
Reference Materials
In preparing the "Japan Aircraft Development Corporation, Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast
2022-2041", data and materials published by the following organizations and groups were used.
AACO Arab Air Carriers Organization

AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
ACI Airports Council International
AEA Association of European Airlines
AFRAA African Airlines Association
ALTA Latin America and Caribbean Air Transport Association
A4A Airlines for America
BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U. S. Department of Transportation
CAAC Civil Aviation Administration of China
DOT U.S. Department of Transportation
EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration
ERAA European Regional Airline Association
EUROCONTROL European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
IATA International Air Transport Association
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
IEA International Energy Agency
JETRO Japan External Trade Organization
MLIT Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
RAA Regional Airline Association
UN United Nations
Air Transport World Aviation Week

Aviation Daily Aviation Week
Cirium Cirium
IHS Connect IHS Markit / S&P Global
OAG OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited
188
2022-2041
189
2022-2041
The “Worldwide Market Forecast 2022-2041” can be found on our website at: http://www.jadc.jp
Although the preparation of this material is based on various data believed to be reliable under
the present conditions, risk data and uncertainty factors are also included in past performance data,
and we neither guarantee its accuracy nor completeness.
The association is not liable for any decision made or action taken by users which is based on this
material, or any consequences thereof. Users assume personal responsibility for any decision
made when referring to this forecast.
When copying this material, either in whole or in part, permission of the copyright owner is
required; please contact us regarding this matter. Be sure to cite Japan Aircraft Development
Corporation when quoting any content of the forecast.
Contact details:
Strategic Planning & Market Analysis Department
Osamu Kato ( okato@jadc.or.jp )
Address:
Hibiya Kokusai Bldg. 7F
2-2-3, Uchisaiwai-cho
Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo
100-0011, Japan
URL: http://www.jadc.jp
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Worldwide Market Forecast

Worldwide Market Forecast

Japan Aircraft Development Corporation

Japan Aircraft Development Corporation

Appendix A Definition of Airplane Segments ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 175

Glossary of Terms ꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏꞏ 185

 Although there was no preventive medicine or cure for COVID-19 in 2020,

 Long-term projections for GDP&RPK: In response to progress in vaccination,

 Although it cannot be denied that infections caused by new mutant viruses

 In response to this, it is expected that CO2 emissions caused by air transportation

Total New Jet Airplane Deliveries 36,342 5,682 *2241

Passenger Turboprop Airplane Fleet 3,129 ＊ 2,897 ＊+ 3,476 0.9%p.a. *2241

New Engine Deliveries 86,802 1,295 *2241

RPK is also expected to recover earlier).

annual average 4.5%]).

Latin America Africa

Factors Considered in Demand Forecast

Aircraft Economic Trend

Airlines’ Strategies Travel/Tourism Trend

Air Policy Route Network

Alternative Means of Transport Business Models

Long-term Demand Forecast

3. Summary of the Airline Industry

Operating Profits RPK

-40 Operating Profits -5

Airline Net Profit to Sales by Region

Africa Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin America North America Europe

3.2 Aircraft Orders and Deliveries

Jet Airplanes*1 Ordered*2

3500 Embraer 3245 3345

orders from the nominal number of orders)

(*4: Including combi aircraft and quick change aircraft)

Unit Jet Airplanes* Delivered

（Units） Jet Airplane Backlog by Region（Stacked）

Jet Airplane Backlog by Region（Share）

Units/yr. Distribution of Firm Orders for Passenger Jets（RJ + NJ + WJ）

100 2020 results

1000 2021 results

Monthly average production based on delivery record *3 Monthly Production Plan *4

Impact of Invasion of Ukraine

countries. In addition, as a consequence of security export control, no western built

Thus, the following possibilities are considered.

In view of compensation for personal/property damages caused to Ukraine, land

3.3 Until COVID-19 Calms Down

RPK, Profit, Orders

in 2003, but increased to 95% in 2004, showing a remarkable initial recovery.

Recovery from COVID-19

RPK（×10 9） Recovery of RPK from COVID‐19 (projection)

RPK Recovery Models

AF WE&EE ME NA Asia S.America NE Vaccinated(WE) Vaccinated(EE) Vaccinated(WE+EE)

C. America WE&EE ME NE NA Asia S. America Vaccinated(WE+EE) Vaccinated(NA)

% Changes in RPK with vaccination （intra Europe）

40 10000 It seems that epidemic control

Source：IATA, Our World in Data recovery.

drived strong travel restrictions.

% Changes in RPK with vaccination （Japan） In response to a rise in the

Source：IATA, Our World in Data

% Changes in RPK with vaccination （Russia） Although the vaccination

Jet Airplanes1 Ordered2

Monthly average production based on delivery record 3 Monthly Production Plan 4

（Units/Year） Deliveryジェット輸送機の納入実績と退役時期の目安（NJ+WJ）

（Based on new GDP, etc.）（Deficiency and recovery with