In what ways has the Ukrainian war that began

in 2022 impacted the energy security of

Poland?
Nina Kurasiewicz

May 8, 2023

2350 words
 In today’s globalized world, it is basically impossible for the effects of a war to stay

within the country’s borders, so when the Russo-Ukrainian war broke out on February 24th,

2023, when Russia invaded Ukraine, many of Ukraine’s neighbors' security also began to be

at risk. Countries like Poland in particular are prone to struggling with energy security during

a time like this as they are heavily reliant on energy supplies from Russia. The International

Energy Agency defines energy security as "the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at

an affordable price" (IEA) and the European Parliament as "reliable, affordable access to all"

(Russell). Nevertheless, with a war against Russia on the other side of their border, Poland is

at risk of price fluctuations and the unavailability of energy, for example, due to blackmail or

sanctions. In what ways has the Ukrainian war that began in 2022 impacted the energy

security of Poland? This is a significant topic to investigate, as the war is an ongoing event

that began at the beginning of 2022, and its implications are still developing and affecting

neighboring countries, but not only. It is known that Poland is at risk of threatening their

energy security due to their reliance on energy imports from Russia. However, the unknown

remains: has the war in Ukraine had effects on Poland that affected the country’s energy

security positively or negatively?

Poland is one of the largest energy consumers in Central and Eastern Europe and is

heavily reliant on Russian gas imports, which makes it vulnerable to supply disruptions and

price fluctuations. Energy security is an important aspect of economic globalization, as

countries rely on international trade and investment to meet their energy needs. The

Ukrainian conflict has disrupted energy supplies and led to tensions between Russia and

Western countries. By investigating this issue, my research will reveal how the Ukrainian war

has impacted Poland's energy security. It will also demonstrate the degree to which political

and economic variables have shaped the region's energy security and how the crisis in

Ukraine has impacted this. This paper will reveal more about the specific ways Poland's

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energy security has been impacted by the situation in Ukraine and how this has changed

Poland’s energy policy.

The war in Ukraine enabled Poland to become energy-wise independent of Russia,

protecting energy prices and availability in Poland and thus ensuring their energy security.

Poland produces 3% of its petroleum, 20% of its gas, and 80% of its coal; all the rest has

always been imported, mainly from Russia. In terms of coal, Poland imports only 20%, of

which three-quarters come from Russia (Heat Not Lost). Before the war, Poland relied

heavily on importing a significant amount of energy from countries like Russia; the

suspension of gas and petroleum has been serious. However, since they make 80% of their

own coal, the absence of coal imports from Russia poses almost no threat to the energy

sector. Nevertheless, this decision has been painfully felt by the Poles who heat their houses

using coal. 55% of gas is imported from Russia (Heat not Lost). Thus, the suspension of gas

imports would put Poland’s energy security at risk, as gas is consumed heavily by the

industry, heating, and households of Poland. After Russia’s energy blackmail against Ukraine,

President Duda said that Poland has sought to vary its energy sources. He mentioned that

Poland relies heavily on energy from coal, which he plans to replace with (TVP). Nuclear and

hydroelectric power plants will be implemented in Poland, as well as wind and solar energy

farms, which the President supports. Implementing such alternative sources gives Poland

more security because they will not be reliant on Russian energy any further but rather will be

making their own, thus protecting the availability as well as prices from Russia’s blackmail.

The Baltic Pipe Project (BPP) launched on November 30th, creates a new gas supply

connection in Europe that allows Poland and Denmark to transport gas (Heat Not Lost). Soon

after the outbreak of the war, Poland began looking for substitute sources of energy and was

successful in finding them, such as the BPP, which, according to predictions, will provide

Poland with as much gas as was previously bought from the Russian company Gazprom.

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Right after the outbreak of the war, Poland’s government realized that their energy security

was at risk as they imported a vast percentage of their energy from Russia. So they sought to

diversify their energy sources and began looking for options. A pipe connecting the Danes

with Poland was a solution to this risk; it was launched on November 30th, 2022, and will

provide as much gas as Poland used to buy from Russia. In addition to this, Poland will be

investing in nuclear power plants with the help of the USA and solar and wind farms in

Poland. This altogether allows Poland to be independent of Russia’s energy as they now

import from the Danes and make their own, thus protecting their prices and ensuring

availability.

Russia’s aggression in Ukraine that began in 2022 contributed to the rise of energy

prices in Poland, impacting a significant aspect of its energy security. Only five months into

the conflict in Ukraine against Russia, energy prices in Poland have risen by 20% (Notes

From Poland). This shows that as energy prices began to rise in Russia due to the war and its

effects, such as sanctions from countries supporting Ukraine, the countries most affected by

these energy prices were neighboring countries, including Poland. This is mainly because

these countries, such as Poland, import a very large percentage of the energy they use from

Russia, so when the prices increase in Russia, they do in neighboring countries as well. April

2022 was when the inflation rate in Poland hit its highest level since 1998 (Notes From

Poland). The inflation rate hit its highest level since 1998 only two months after the outbreak

of the war, and though the war was not the sole cause of the increase in inflation rates in

Poland, it definitely had an effect, which will be discussed later in this paper. Prime Minister

Morawiecki says that "the war in Ukraine affects energy prices, and they affect the costs of

everything"; they have called this Putinflation (Notes From Poland). The rise in energy prices

affects consumers in a variety of ways, including increased transportation and heating costs;

this results in more expensive goods and services, which contribute to inflation. The Prime

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Minister is implying that energy prices are a significant problem for consumers and the

overall economy, as the effects of rising costs can result in worse living standards and

diminished purchasing power. Although the Polish government does not specify what

percentage of inflation is caused by the crisis in Ukraine, his claim is still valid because the

fact that the war contributes to higher energy prices has been proven. However, the way he

spoke could make one think that the inflation in Poland was explicitly caused by Putin. This

is not actually the case, as analysts at two state-owned banks, Pekao and PKO, calculate that

Russia has contributed to one third, or 30%, of Poland’s inflation (Notes From Poland). This

proves that though Russia has a large amount of power over the energy prices in Poland, thus

being the cause of 30% of the inflation, they are not the only contributors to inflation. The

other reasons include the consequences of post-pandemic recovery and support for

companies, as well as deficits in the number of Polish workers. Even so, the calculations

prove that the war in Ukraine had an effect on Poland’s inflation and thus on the increase of

energy prices, endangering Poland's energy security. Poland is one of the countries most

affected by Russia in terms of energy security. The current state is not the ideal situation for

Poland’s energy, as they import large amounts of raw materials from Russian companies. The

cessation of importing Russian gas has negative effects on Poland’s consumers and economy.

The Prime Minister mentioned that as energy prices rise, this causes the rate of inflation to go

up, which will hurt Poland’s consumers with higher prices ultimately leading to lower living

conditions and a decline in their purchasing power as these energy price fluctuations caused

by Russia account for 30% of the inflation in Poland.

The Ukrainian war compelled Polish petrol companies to find alternative gas

importers as a way to protect their energy security by making sure they have a constant and

reliable energy source, which Russia could not provide. The concern, PKN Orlen, has a

contract with two Russian petroleum-delivering companies: Rosnieftem, which expired in

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December 2022 and delivered 200 thousand tons of petroleum monthly; and Tatnieft, which

will expire in December 2024 and continue to deliver 300 thousand tons of petroleum

monthly (Rosja: Polska). Before the war, Polish petroleum companies delivered much

petroleum from Russia and made long-term contracts, which indicates that they were not

planning on steering away from the Russian source. Nonetheless, once the war broke out due

to doubts about the energy security of Poland as well as other countries in the region, PKN

Orlen and other companies resigned from delivering petroleum from Russia (PKN Orlen).

This shows that companies have no desire to continue importing Russian gas in order to

protect their country’s energy security. By finding alternative sources to Russian petroleum,

they protect the country from prices and the material itself, which are both at risk of being

unsteadily controlled by Russia, because other sources have been proven to provide more

security by ensuring accessible and affordable gas. According to the president of Orlen, at the

moment 70% of the petroleum being delivered to Orlen’s refineries in Poland, the Czech

Republic, and Lithuania comes from alternative sources to Russia, while in 2015 almost

100% of the petroleum was Russian (PKN Orlen). In previous years, the concern used almost

entirely Russian gas, but recently the concern has significantly decreased the percentage of

raw materials from Russia they buy and now will wait for the contract with the firm Tatnieft

to expire at the end of 2024 in order to fully steer away from Russia’s petroleum. The

petroleum that is in the following gas stations in Poland is delivered to them by Orlen: BP,

Shell, Statoil Circle K, Lukoil, and Neste (Orlen). Orlen's distribution to many of Poland's

gas stations indicates that if Orlen is avoiding the Russian source of petroleum, this means

that all other gas stations are as well. This is significant because it indicates that a larger

number of companies than just one are using alternative sources to Russia. Prior to the

conflict, Polish petroleum businesses transported a significant amount of petroleum from

Russia and signed long-term contracts. So, at the beginning of the war, it was apparent to the

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companies that they needed to defer to the Russian source of petroleum, as it was predictable

that one impact of this war would be on energy prices and access to energy. Though there was

this risk, several Polish petrol station companies were able to swiftly downsize the amount of

petroleum bought from Russia and, in consequence, guarantee that they would have access to

petroleum at reasonable prices.

In this study, it was found that the Russian aggression towards Ukraine that began in

February 2022 has had several effects on the affordability and accessibility of energy in

Poland. With the outbreak of the war, Poland as well as Polish petroleum concerns realized

the potential for unpredictability from Russia’s side as they were heavily reliant on energy

imports from Russia. Despite this risk, they were able to swiftly become less dependent on

Russian energy resources, and by doing so, Poland will be able to become entirely

independent of Russian energy and protect itself from potential supply disruptions and price

fluctuations. Another negative impact of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict on Poland was the

dramatic increase in energy prices, which have been felt by Poles when getting gas for their

cars or receiving utility bills. This increase in energy costs not only leads to higher expenses

for households but also contributes to inflation, making goods and services more expensive

for all consumers. As a result, Poles have had to contend with rising prices not only for rent

but also for essential utilities such as heating, electricity, and water. The Prime Minister’s

statement on "Putinflation" highlights the impact of these high energy prices on the overall

economy and consumer wellbeing. The quick speed at which Poland in particular was able to

react and prevent an even worse situation is highly noteworthy. Though Poland was put at

risk of energy price fluctuations and availability issues, the government as well as private

companies were quickly able to steer away from the Russian energy source. This was the

cause of the risk to their energy security, as they relied heavily on Russia’s raw material

imports before the war. This means that at the beginning of the war, Poland’s energy security

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was negatively affected because prices rose and energy supply was at risk of ceasing, but

Poland was able to deal with this swiftly and prevent perhaps an even worse scenario in

which Poland would not find alternative sources and would not have enough materials for its

citizens to thrive and survive. The ways in which Poland dealt with this issue included

building their own nuclear power plant as well as solar and wind farms that will actually help

its energy security be much safer in the future as they will be producing vast amounts of

energy until eventually they will not be reliant on one single country but rather will be under

control of their energy supplies, and most likely most energy will be domestic. Something

interesting is that though at first the Russian-Ukrainian conflict’s effects posed a threat to the

energy security of Poland, it now turns out to help them gain energy independence by

creating their own energy and importing gas with the use of the Baltic Pipe from Denmark.

Thus, an interesting additional topic to observe in the coming years would be how Poland

will be doing with the production of their own energy and how fast these percentages, like

right before the war, of gas being imported from Russia, Denmark, and other countries will

decrease.