Can Artificial Intelligence Do Better

than Humans at Leadership? M A P

Willmer
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 Intelligence in Economics and Management
Artificial intelligence
L.F. Pau (Editor) 241
© Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.
B.Y. (North-Holland), 1986

CAN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DO BETTER

THAN HUMANS AT LEADERSHIP?
Wi llmer
M A P Willmer
Reader in Operational Research
Manchester Business School
Manchester
Great Britain

This paper considers whether it is possible that some form of

artificial intelligence could be more successful than humans in
controlling and motivating subordinates as well as minimising
the effects of distortion in information flows.
Of particular interest are those situations where subordinates
have a large measure of influence over information flows and
where their superiors need information to make decisions
concerning the internal control of the organisation, and
strategic policy. Indeed, sometimes one wonders where control
in an organisation really lies!
In an attempt to gain insights into leadership problems, a simu-
lation was constructed of a company that produces clunks.
Attention was focussed primarily on the decision-making of the
Chief Executive and the Managers. The human response character-
istics used in the simulation are based on an analysis of the
behaviour of production managers attending Operational
Management Courses at Manchester Business School. Several
artificial intelligence approaches to leadership are considered
and the results obtained are compared with those produced by
humans in similar circumstances. The results should be of
interest to all those concerned with management control in
organisations where opportunities for information distortion
abound.
I NTRODUCTI ON
Leadership for those brought up on a diet of John Wayne films is represented by
a mounted cavalry officer with right arm raised ready to lower it in the
direction of the enemy whilst exhorting the troops behind to charge. Leadership
of a modern complex organisation, however, is a vastly different matter and over
the years much has been written on the question of what makes a good leader. For
example, Reeves (1970) noted that the most common attributes of leaders are:
decision-making, interpersonal relationships, personal
intelligence, motivation, deciSion-making,
integrity, stamina, conceptual ability, recognition of creativity in others and
charisma. Furthermore, styles of leadership may either be democratic, autocratic·
or laissez-faire.
To be effective the leader of a large organisation has to be more than the man
who stands facing the crowd. His task is to inspire and motivate others. As
Carlsson and Misshauk (1972) noted: "In the business environment effective
implementation usually requires working with other people. Thus, the knowledge
that an individual may have is practically useless unless it can be communicated
to others. Finally, the action resulting from the communication of ideas must
be coordinated in order to achieve a common goal."
242 M.A.P.
M.A. P. Willmer

In small organisations where the leader and his subordinates operate on the same
site people are able to get to know one another reasonably well. For larger
organisations especially as they develop and establish branches in many diverse
places a leader and his subordinates may know very little about one another as
individuals. They may meet only infrequently and subordinates in particular may
be very much on their guard, trying to make a good impression. It is only human
nature that the more powerful the leader, the more influence he has on the lives
of those who work for him and the more they will tend to tell him what they think
he wants to hear. Indeed, as so many powerful people have found to their cost,
although they may have power the truth is something that often eludes them, see
Lucas (1938).
Under these circumstances the leader is faced with many pr0blems associated with
the complexities of controlling and motivating staff and with the distortion of
information. Of particular interest are those where subordinates have a large
measure of influence over the information that is needed by their superiors to
make decisions concerning
1. the internal control of the organisation, and
2. s t ra teg i c policy.
strategic po 1icy.
These problems become more acute when there is only infrequent contact between
the leader and his subordinates: the scope for frank communications and the
establishing of meaningful relationships tends to become restricted. Thus the
leader may appear remote to his subordinates and his personal qualities may
remain obscure. Previous papers have explored the questions of system uncertainty
and leadership, and subordinate behaviour and management control in such
situations, see Willmer (1978 & 1980). This paper examines the leadership
question in greater depth and considers whether it is possible that some form of
artificial intelligence could be more effective as a leader than humans in con-
trolling and motivating subordinates as well as in minimising the effects of
distortion in information flows.
Unreliability of Management Control Information
Revans (1969) noted that any information system may suffer from faults of design
and operation and he listed those that occur most frequently. Difficulties in
human systems arise with respect to the collection and interpretation of data
as well as with the transmission of information from one part of the system to
another. At each link of the communication process information is received,
processed and transmitted and with humans involved there is always a possibility
that the message will become lost, distorted or misunderstood. As noted by
Miller (1972) distortions occur in command messages flowing downwards and in
reports flowing upwards. In connection with the former, Rogers and Agarwala-
Rogers (1976) suggest that: "Such distortion seems to have been responsible for
the My Lai massacre of Vietnam civilians by American troops in 1968". It would
seem that an order "On no occasion must hamlets be burned down" became "Do not
burn down any hamlets unless you are absolutely convinced that the Vietcong are
in them" to "If you think there are any Vietcong in the hamlet, burn it down"
to "Burn down that hamlet" as it passed from divisional headquarters to the
troops on duty.
Although much has been learnt about the design of good management information
systems, there is no guarantee that the causes of error will be entirely elimina-
ted. Leaders will find it prudent therefore to remember that, since their
communication channels are unlikely to be completely reliable, they may be more
uncertain about a particular situation than they should be. This increase in
uncertainty can be thought of as noise and it has been found convenient to
distinguish between two types; (see Willmer, 1970).
 Can Artificial Intelligence
Can Intelligence Do Better than
Do Better than Humans?
Humans ? 243
243

a) Internally
a) Internally generated
generated noise
noise which
which is
is due
due to
to information
information becoming
becoming lost
lost or
or
distorted inside
distorted inside an
an organisation
organisation or
or because
because insufficient
insufficient use
use is
is made
made of
of
information already
information already obtained,
obtained, and
b) Background
b) Background noise
noise which
which is
is due
due to
to the
the organisation
organisation not
not receiving
receiving the
the appropri-
appropri-
ate information in
ate in the
the first
first place.
place.
Similarly, leaders
Similarly, leaders maymay feel
feel more
more certain
certain about
about the
the true
true situation
situation than
than they
they
should be,
should be, bearing
bearing in in mind
mind the
the data
data available.
available. This
This effect
effect can
can be
be thought
thought of
of
as "pseudo-certa
as "pseudo-certa ii nty".
nty".
Distortions may
Distortions may occur
occur accidentally or or be
be caused
caused deliberately
deliberately especially when
when
there are
there are major
major differences
differences of of objective
objective between
between people
people in
in an
an organisation.
organisation.
Many instances
Many instances of
of errors being
being deliberately
deliberately introduced
introduced have
have been
been noted
noted in
in the
the
literature. For
literature. For example,
example, with
with regard
regard to
to the
the budgetary
budgetary process,
process, Williamson
Williamson (1964)
(1964)
and Schiff
and Schiff and
and Lewin
Lewin (1970)
(1970) found that
that managers
managers understated revenues and and over-
over-
stated costs
stated costs in
in attempts
attempts toto obtain
obtain slack
slack budgets.
budgets. Lowe
Lowe and
and Shaw
Shaw (1968)
(1968) found
found
that line
that line managers
managers introduced
introduced bias
bias into
into their
their sales forecasts. These
These examples
examples
are characterised
are characterised by by the
the superior
superior and
and his
his subordinates
subordinates having
having different
different object-
object-
ives, and
ives, and information
information being
being biased byby subordinates
subordinates inin order
order to
to achieve
achieve their
their
own goals,
own goals, aa type
type of
of conflict
conflict in in which
which the
the parties
parties develop
develop "ploys"
"ploys" and
and "counter-
"counter-
ploys", see
ploys", see Anthony and
and Herzlinger
Herz 1i nger (1975).
(1975).
One factor
One factor which
which tends
tends to
to exacerbate
exacerbate the
the internal
internal deliberate
deliberate distortion
distortion situation
situation
is the
is the assessment
assessment ofof the
the performance
performance ofof an
an individual
individual by
by the
the leader
leader using
using informa-
informa-
tion supplied
tion supplied by the subordinate
subordinate under
under review.
review. The
The leader
leader by
by rewarding
rewarding aa subor-
subor-
dinate inappropriately
dinate inappropriately cancan affect
affect not
not only
only that
that person's
person's attitude
attitude but
but also
also the
the
attitude of
attitude of others.
others. Afterall
Aftera11 it it is
is basic
basic human
human nature
nature that
that some
some employees
employees will
will
try to
try to make
make it
it look as
as though
though they
they are
are better
better performers
performers than
than their
their efforts
efforts
genuinely merit.
genuinely merit. It should
should not
not therefore
therefore bebe thought
thought that
that this
this is
is a contemporary
contemporary
problem brought
problem brought about
about byby modern
modern management
management methods
methods and
and technology.
technology. Some
Some fifty
fifty
years ago
years ago that
that great
great London
London detective
detective FF.B.
.B. Wensley
Wensley (1931)
(1931) warned: "there
"there are
are men
men
... with
... with aa streak
streak ofof vanity
vanity that
that impels
impels them
them toto adopt
adopt aa pose
pose at
at the
the expense
expense ofof
those who
those who have
have really
really done
done the
the work.
work. They
They like
like to
to bask
bask in
in the
the limelight
limelight ...
...As
As
Chief Constable
Chief Constable II was
was always
always on
on my
my guard
guard against
against this
this sort
sort of
of thing
thing and
and made
made itit
my business
my business toto see
see that
that credit went
went in
in the
the right
right direction.
direction. Unless
Unless kept
kept in
in
check it
check it breeds
breeds resentment
resentment and
and checks
checks energy".
energy".
For many
For many of
of the
the leadership
leadership situations
situations being
being considered
considered in this
this paper,
paper, opportuni-
opportuni-
ties may
ties may arise
arise where
where the
the information
information flows
flows affecting
affecting the
the assessment
assessment ofof
subordinates can be manipulated
subordinates can manipulated byby the
the subordinates
subordinates themselves.
themselves. Where
Where an
an organi-
organi-
sation operates
sation operates branches
branches in
in several
several very
very different
different environments
environments and
and where
where the
the
managers of
managers of each
each branch know that
branch know that they
they are competing
competing with
with one
one another forfor
promotion is
promotion is one
one example.
example. InIn circumstances
circumstances such
such as
as these
these one
one may
may wonder
wonder where
where
control in
control in the
the organisation
organisation really lies!
lies! IsIs it
it with
with those
those with
with nominal
nominal authority
authority
or with
or with those
those who
who are
are able
able to
to affect
affect the
the information
information that
that is
is used
used in
in the
the
decision-making process?
decision-making process?

Who controls
Who controls Whom?
Whom?
Much of
Much of our
our thinking
thinking about
about management
management control
control problems
problems is
is strongly
strongly influenced
influenced by by
the fundamental
the fundamental control
control model
model of
of cybernetics.
cybernetics. Essentially
Essentially the
the controller
controller has
has an'
an'
objective for
objective for the
the system
system under
under his
his command.
command. HeHe also
also knows
knows the present
present state
state of
of
this system
this system and
and can
can thus
thus determine
determine an
an error
error signal.
signal. AtAt his
his command
command are
are a number
number
of options
of options and
and he
he can
can select
select that
that option
option which eliminates
eliminates oror minimises
minimises the
the error.
error.
This model
This model of
of control
control has
has its
its origins
origins in
in the
the physical
physical sciences
sciences where
where it
it has
has
enabled mankind
enabled mankind toto exert
exert considerable
considerable authority
authority over
over natural
natural systems.
systems. However,
However,
where human
where human organisations
organisations are
are concerned
concerned many ofof its
its underlying
underlying assumptions
assumptions are
are
far from val
far valid. Its appl
id. Its application management control
ication to management control systems
systems has
has been
been severely
severely
criticised by
criticised by Hofstede
Hofstede (1978):
(1978): "A
"A distinction
distinction isis made
made between
between routine
routine industrial-
industrial-
244
244 M.A.?
M. A. P. Willmer

type processes for which a homeostatic paradigm is more suitable, and non-routine,
type
non-industrial-type processes, for which a political paradigm is recommended.
Attempts at enforcing a cybernetic paradigm on the latter process, like Program-
Planning-Budgeting Systems (PPBS) and Management-By-Objectives (MBO) are bound to
fa i 1."
1."
The question of who really is in control in those organisations where subordinates
have many opportunities for manipulating information flows is a very interesting
one. The nominal superior may have all the outward trappings of authority - the
thick piled carpet in the large office, the luxurious car and the key to the
executive loo. He may be able to call for data and may be the person who formally
workforce.
announces his decisions to the work force. On the other hand, his subordinate may
know how his superior's mind works, his weaknesses and pet theories, and then
feeds him the information that ensures a particular decision is made. A leader
may set objectives, discuss targets with his subordinates, tell them how they will
be rewarded and later give them the rewards he deems appropriate. Nevertheless,
when they massage and manipulate information flows, he can have very real problems
in making his authority felt and ensuring that he is in command. One well-known
(1972)..
way of viewing an organisation is to compare it to the human body, see Beer (1972)
However, as Morris has warned: "The Big Toe can think". Clearly, therefore, when
subordinates can affect the information flows-the usefulness of the cybernetic
approach and models derived from it is limited.
The target setting and reward systems found in many budgetary control processes
illustrate these limitations well. To avoid causing trouble leaders should be
sure whether they are using budgets for planning or for control since trying to
use for both purposes can encourage subordinates to play the numbers game, see
Churchill (1984). Similarly Carruth and McClendon (1984) warn accountants to be
aware of the behavioural implications of using budgets for control and evaluation:
"Using budgets as a pressure device by over-emphasizing 'meeting the budget' can
1limit for business growth."
imit the autonomous actions necessary for
For both planning and control purposes, statistics have tended to be relied upon
in preference to qualitative information. Perhaps this is because decision-
makers, who in the words of Meal (quoted in Brown, 1970), " .. want to think of
themselves as individuals whose greater grasp of the available information and
whose greater insight remove the uncertainty from the situation", have greater
faith in numbers than in other data. Afterall, as Rapoport (1965) noted:
"Numbers are the simplest and most universal linguistic invariants".
Nor is this belief in the authority of statistics a modern phenomena, brought
about by the power of contemporary computers generating an attitude of "what the
Ksander (1980) and Graham (1982) quote
computer says must be true". Bogdan and Ksander
Stamp (1929) as saying: "The Government are very keen on amassing statistics -
they collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and
prepare wonderful diagrams. But what you must never forget is that everyone of
.... (village watchman), who
these figures comes in the first instance from the ...•
just puts down what he damn pleases."
Indeed, as has been pointed out by Willmer (1984), some people view numbers not as
objective data but as strategic acts used to achieve specific objectives. This
reference also outlines the standard techniques of those who use numbers to achieve
strategic objectives. An example of their use in practice is given by Lipsey
(1985) in relation to the British Government's handling of the unemployment figures.
The prudent executive should not forget that, as Graham notes: "data reflect what
most people wish was reality or what people want you to believe is reality".
The ingenuity that humans have shown in finding ways of manipulating and massaging
data to meet their objectives means that, in most situations involving groups of
human beings, the power of the control system is derived from the leadership that
executives breathe into it! To explore more thoroughly the question of leadership
 Humans??
Can Artificial Intelligence Do Better than Humans 245

under these circumstances and to give insights into the different aspects of the
superior/subordinate interface and the effects of various methods of performance
data, a
appraisal on both the motivation of employees and the manipulation of data.
business simulation representing a production situation was created.
So You Think That You Would Make a Managing Director
50
This simulation represents a large multi-national company whose subsidiaries are
engaged in a wide variety of activities and is concerned with the management of
people and machines in a production environment. Attention is focussed on one of
these subsidiaries called International Castings Ltd. which produces "clunks".
This company has two factories both situated a long way from head office in
unpleasant surroundings so that it is rarely convenient for top level staff to
visit them.
The situation is simplified by assuming that the organisation has two levels of
authority. At the superior level there is the leader who has two subordinates
each of whom is the manager of a clunk factory reporting directly to him. Part-
icipants engage in decision-making at both the subordinate and the superior
levels. First, they are asked to imagine that they are the manager of one of the
factories. Here their task is to become familiar with the problems of manufactur-
ing clunks and to understand the superior's style of leadership. They have
therefore to operate in a socio-technical
socio-technica1 environment where the technical
decisions are concerned with the way in which men, money and machines under their
control are used. The factory, its machines and workforce, are described more
fully by Willmer (1978). At the social level they have to persuade their
superior that they are competent, capable and dependable.
For the guidance of its managers the company has established a number of rules
which should theoretically be adhered to in the running of each factory. However,
the simulation has been designed so that the subordinate is the main source of
information about how his factory is being run and how well it is performing.
Thus, as the superior rarely visits the factory, subordinates may violate these
rules without fear of immediate exposure. The extent to which production is
affected by rule violations depends on which ones are broken and the impact that
some violations can have both in the short and long term on the state of the
equipment and the morale of the workforce. The information flow within the
organisation is illustrated diagrammatically in fig.l.
After a period playing the role of subordinate, participants are promoted to the
position of leader. Here their objective is to handle subordinates in such a
way that:
(i) output is increased
(ii) the managing director is aware of the way his factories are being
managed.
The computer programmes in both parts of the simulation are based partly on
assumptions and partly from the analysis of data obtained from the behaviour of
managers who have been participants. Most of this behavioural data relates to
production managers from multi-national companies who have attended Operational
Management Courses at the Manchester Business School. Thus during the first part
of the simulation the computer represents the equipment, the workforce and the
leader. At the start each subordinate is told that his leader has believed for
some time that clunk production is too low, and that the previous manager was
sacked for incompetence. However, the simulation has been designed so that the
subordinate cannot normally meet the initial aspirations of his boss by totally
obeying the rules. Each month starts with the subordinate being told his
leader's primary objective. There are three possibilities:
246 M.A.P. Willmer

1. to produce as many clunks as possible,

2. to get as close to the agreed target as possible,
3. to be truthful about the number of violations made.
Superior and subordinate then negotiate a target. This is followed by the
subordinate being asked to decide upon issues relating to the running of the
factory: the levels of overtime for the different types of workers, the number
of maintenance men to be put onto production duties, etc. The subordinate has
also to decide how many clunks he does not want recorded until the following
month and the number of rule violations that he has committed. The recorded
production figures and the number of confessions are given to the superior who
assesses his subordinate's performance and gives him a rating normally between
50 and 100.
As has been noted earlier, the simulation has been designed so that the subordin-
ate is the main source of information about how a factory is being run and how
well it is performing. Thus, the decision about how many rules to confess to
having violated, like the reaction to the leader's target proposal and the
production not declared each month, may be viewed as essentially tactical
depending upon the impression that the subordinate hopes to leave in the mind of
the leader about his competence. The simulation shows clearly the fundament
fundamental
al
conflict of objectives between the Managing Director and his subordinates. The
leader wants the highest possible production and an accurate knowledge of the
state of affairs at his factories: the subordinate wants to be thought well of
by his boss. As the subordinate has a significant amount of control over the
information that his boss needs to assess him, he can if he has the necessary
skills manipulate the information flows to improve his boss's perception of his
performance. The reaction of managers when faced with this situation is given
by Willmer (1980) and a discussion of some of the ethical considerations is
given by Willmer and Keiser (1982).
possess
Experience is any human organisation soon reveals examples of people who pos sess
skill at developing a level of appreciation far beyond their actual worth.
Similarly there are those who quietly and effectively get on with the job whilst
their contribution and competence is doubted by those at a higher level.
Examples of such cases are given by the simulation results shown in fig.2. In
this figure the actual average score is plotted against the average clunk produc-
tion for a number of managers. The line NN represents the case of the naive
manager who engages in no tactical attempts to modify his boss's perceptions to
his own advantage. At the lower end of the production range he breaks no rules
and says so. At the higher production levels he breaks rules but honestly admits
it. Thus anyone who achieves a result above the line may be viewed as an
Appreciation Amplifier whilst those below the line may be called Appreciation
Attenuators.
When participants are promoted to the leader's position at Head Office it is
their task to set the main objective, to lead the target negotiation process and
to reward or punish as appropriate
appropriate.. The computer at this stage acts as two
cynical old hands who have heard many fine words in the past from other
Managing Directors. Again the programme is based partly on assumptions about
human behaviour and partly on the way people have responded when they have acted
out the role of boss. Whereas subordinates enjoy considerable freedom to manip-
ulate information to influence their superior's perceptions, participants
pa rticipants soon
find that the task of motivating and controlling such people is very difficult.
Because of the nature of the contact with their subordinates there is no scope
for frank and full discussions. They know that their subordinates may be using
their power over the information flows tactically - to create a better perception
of themselves. To control the situation therefore participants have to rely on
their skills at setting main objectives, on the way that they handle the target
setting negotiations, and on their ability to reward or punish appropriately.
Since the Managing Director communicates with his subordinates using only the
 Can Artificial Intelligence Do Better than Humans? 247

briefest of messages and without attempting to get to know them personally, there
is no possibility of any human relationship being established. In such circum-
stances is it feasible that some form of artificial intelligence could be more
successful than humans at the art of leadership?
Results: Humans vs. Artificial Intelligence
By Artificial Intelligence I am thinking of a mechanism which, given the informa-
tion available to the Managing Director, tells a subordinate his rating for the
previous month, the main objective for the coming month, the initial target, the
agreed target, as well as estimating the number of rule violations committed.
The results for several groups attending Operational Management courses at the
Manchester Business School are given in figs. (3a) & (3b). In fig. (3a) the
fig.(3a)
variation of production is shown with time and it can be seen that the overall
average rises steadily over the year. Also shown are the variations for the top
and bottom ten subordinates. The wide spread shows clearly that some subordin-
ates were not being controlled or motivated effectively by their superiors.
Fig(3b) shows the error level over the same time period, where
error level =
= actual - perceived number of violations
The figure shows that for most of the range the bosses in the case of the "bottom
ten" appear to have a better appreciation of what is happening in the factory
than those in the "top ten" group. However, when the error rate is plotted
against production, see fig.(3c), it can be seen that increased production tends
to lead to an increased error rate in both cases. When this trend is taken into
account it follows that, at a given production level, the error rate for the
"bottom ten" is greater than that for the "top ten".
To explore the differences between the performance as the Managing Director of
humans with that of some form of Artificial Intelligence, it will be assumed that
the boss is programmed to operate according to the following rules:
Strategy A
1) On taking command the work of both subordinates is assessed as satisfactory.
Subsequently their assessments will be determined by the rating the boss is
given for his own activities, i.e. they are told that, if he does badly, he
will reward them badly and vice-versa.
2) Production is always the main objective.
3) The initial target in the first two months is set at 31800 clunks.
Thereafter the target is increased by 500 if in two consecutive months the
recorded production is within 300 clunks of the agreed target up to a
maximum of 35,000 clunks.
4) The agreed target is always midway between the initial target suggested by
the boss and the value offered by the subordinate.
5) The subordinate is always believed.
Stra tegy B
Strategy
As strategy A except that the boss is assumed to be more of a "hawk". The
differences are:
3) The initial target in the first two months is set at 31800 clunks.
Thereafter the target is increased by 800 if in two consecutive months
the recorded production is within 300 clunks of the agreed target up to
a maximum of 36,000 clunks.
4) The agreed target is only reduced by 10% of the difference between the
initial target suggested by the boss and the value offered by the
subordinate.
248 M.A.P. Willmer

The results are shown in figs4(a,b,&c). With regard to production it can be seen
from fig.4(a) that strategy A gives a result very close to that of the "Top Ten"
- there is a rise from about 30,700 to 33,000 clunks per month. Strategy B on
the other hand has a faster rate of growth but peaks at month 6 leading to a
steady decline. Fig.4(b) shows the variation of the error level with time and
it can be seen that strategy A is less successful than the "Top Ten" over the
whole of the year. Strategy B on the other hand is less successful during the
early months but later gives a lower error level. When these results are
compared on an Error level production graph a number of interesting points arise,
see fig.4(c). First, the success of the "Top Ten" over both strategies can be
clearly seen. Secondly, all curves show a kind of hysteresis effect, i.e. the
error level when production is rising tends to be less than that when production
is decreasing. This effect is most marked in the case of strategy B. As far as
humans are concerned one explanation could be that, when production is increasing
the superior feels good and adopts an optimistic view of his subordinates
activities. In contrast, when production is falling, he becomes more cynical or
realistic.
rea 1i sti c. In view of the fact that the phenomena occurs for both the humans
and the computer-based strategies it is more likely that it is caused by a change
in the attitude of the subordinates to reporting rule violations. Could it be
that doing better leads to more information distortion whilst doing worse
produces more reliability?
Both strategies A and B assume some knowledge of the maximum number of clunks
that can be built each month at the factories regardless of whether rules are
violated or not. Determining this limit is a key issue in the control of many
managerial problems. When faced with such situations it is helpful to bear
in mind two levels of production performance suggested by Beer (1972):
1. the capabi 1ity level - that which a completely efficient subordinate could
achieve with existing resources and operating under existing restraints.
2. the potentiality level - that which could be achieved by fully utilising
existing resources and optimally relaxing the restraints.
Thus, if one asks a subordinate to work above the capability level, he must
violate the regulations whilst asking someone to exceed the potentiality level
is requesting the impossible. In the case of strategy A the target was set at
roughly the potentiality level whereas in strategy B it was comfortably exceeded.
This explains the failure of this strategy to maintain high production, see fig.
4(a) - the target set is impossible and the subordinate 'switches off'.
To explore the effect of the superior having no prior knowledge of the potential-
ity level and thus compelling him to estimate it from the data given to him by
his subordinate, several further strategies will be considered.
Strategy Cl
This is the same as strategy A except that:
3) The initial target in the first two months is set at 31800 clunks. Thereafter
the target is increased by 500 if in two consecutive months the recorded
production is within 300 clunks of the agreed target. On each month after
the first two an additional factor is also added to the initial target. This
amount is equal to the mean of the difference between the recorded and the
agreed target for the previous two months.
4) The agreed target is only reduced by 10% of the difference between the
initial target suggested by the boss and the value offered by the subordinate.
Strategy C2
This strategy is similar to strategy Cl except that the initial target is
 Can Artificial Intelligence
Can Intelligence Do Better
Better than
than Humans?
Humans ? 249
249

instead of
increased by 1000 instead of 500 when
when the
the recorded
recorded production is within 300
300
clunks of the agreed target in the previous two months.
and 02
Strategy 01 and
except that only 20%
Similar to strategy Cl except 20%of the
the mean of
of the
the difference between
the recorded and the
the the agreed target for the
the previous
previous two
two months
months is
is added
added to
to the
the
initial target.
The results from these strategies are are compared
compared with those of the "Top Ten" in
and 6(a&b). The variation of production with
figs.5(a&b) and with time is
is given
given in
in figs.
figs.
strategies Cl and
5(a&b) where the sensitivity of strategies and C2 to differences between
clearly seen. When
recorded production and agreed target can be clearly When the
the smaller
basic increment of 500 clunks is in operation production starts to fall off
after month 2 but later recovers to
after to reach a level
level slightly less than that
achieved by the "Top Ten". On the other hand, the
achieved the higher basic
basic increment of of
1,000 clunks leads to a smaller initial drop but produces a peak after after about six
six
corresponds to
months. This point again corresponds to the
the subordinate being
being asked
asked to operate
beyond the potentiality level and is followed by a collapse in production as he
pronounced in the case
becomes "switched-off". These effects are not nearly so pronounced
the strategies
of the strategies 01 and 02.02. Here the tighter control overover the way
way the initial
account of
target is modified to take account of deviations from
from the
the target in earlier
months is evident. TheThe strategies are compared on an errorerror level
level / Production
graph in figs.6(a&b). FromFrom fig.6(a)
fig.6(a) it is interesting
interesting toto note that the hystere-
sis effect does not occur for strategies Cl and C2 Indeed the error level level tends
tend s
to rise to aa plateau in both cases. However,
However, when tighter control is exercised
way the
over the way the initial target
target is modified
modified (strategies 01 andand 02) the hysteresis
fig.6(b).
effect returns, see fig.6(b).
Figs . 7(a,b&c) give the results when the
Figs.7(a,b&c) the reward criterion is changed to put
greater emphasis on increased production. Thus strategy Cl is modified as
follows:
Strategy El
1. The subordinate's performance is assessed as satisfactory in the first two
months. Thereafter an increase in production of more than 400 is deemed to
good whereas
be good whereas aa fall in production
production is
is deemed to be
be poor.
poor.
Strategy E2
Strategy E2
El except that only 20% of the mean of the difference between
Similar to strategy El
the recorded production and the agreed target for the previous two months is
the initial target.
added to the
The figures show that the "Top Ten" still
still achieves better
better results although
in the
strategy El does end up in the same area of the Error level/Production space
after 12 months.
In all
In all the above cases
cases it has been assumed
assumed that
that the subordinate will
will tell the
truth about the number of violations
truth violations of the
the regulations
regulations that he has
has made.
made. Except
Except
making his reward correlation with
for strategies El and E2 the hope was that, by making
be recognised as the
the superior's score, honesty would be the best policy. The
comparisons noted above indicate
indicate that changing
changing the emphasis to production leads
some cases. Nevertheless
to an improvement in some Nevertheless asas has already
already been noted, the
a 11 the computer
"Top Ten" humans seem to do better than all computer based strategies
s tra tegi es
considered so far.
250 M.A.P. Willmer

Strategy F
If the design of the Artificial Intelligence is allowed to include some knowledge
of the capability and potentiality levels use can be made of the fact, noted by
Willmer and Berry (1976), that the superior's uncertainty about the state of his
factory is greatest at these levels and reduces to a minimum in between. To
incorporate this finding strategy A will be modified thus:
5. If production is less than 31,800 clunks and the deviation from the target is
less than 400, it is assumed that the subordinate has committed one more
violation than he admits. If the production is greater than 33,000 clunks,
it is again assumed that he has committed an extra violation. Otherwise he
believed.
is be 1i ev ed.
The results are given in figs.8(a,b&c) where it can be seen that production is
less than both strategy A and the "Top Ten". Also the error level is lower than
that of strategy A and when plotted on an Error level/Production graph the
improvement achieved by strategy F can be clearly observed. However, the "Top Ten"
humans were still able to obtain lower error levels over a wider production range
than the computer-based strategies.
The results show that humans are able to cope with the problem of distorted
information a little more successfully than the Artificial Intelligence models
used. Although the development of more sophisticated models may lead to improved
performances, it must be remembered that executives have to cope with messy situa-
tions. Often the first hurdle that the decision-maker has to overcome is to
formulate his problem in a meaningful manner. It is the human mind that creates
the basic order. Pym(1984) warns that we should be careful not to abdicate to
information technology the responsibility for creating such order and suggests
that it could be a liberating force if the part played by the human mind is
explicitly recognised. There are already some who feel that the role of
Artificial Intelligence is limited. Alexander(1984) quotes an expert as saying
that the proper application for expert systems are structured selection problems
and
a nd expressed the view that: "expert systems
sys tems that can routinely
routi nely outperform human
experts will be much rarer than the hoopla suggests".
Some thirty years ago Boolean's algebra was the latest tool for solving the
problems of managers. However, little is heard of it today. To prevent
Artificial Intelligence suffering a similar fate when applied to the broad
problems of management, its supporters must not forget that the data on which
it has to work are the result of a social process, that humans sometimes do not
obey the rules, and that people's personal objectives often differ from those
of the organisation and they act accordingly.
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Can Artificial Intelligence
Intelligence Do
Do Better
Better than
than Humans
Humans?? 251
251

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(21) Schoff, M. M. and
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A.Y. (1970),
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(25) Willmer, M.A.P.
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Berry, A.J.
A.J. (1976),
(1976), "Managerial
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(26) Willmer, M.A.P.
M.A.P. (1978),
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"System Uncertainty
Uncertainty and and Leadership
Leadership Strategy",
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(27) M.A.P. (1980),
(1980), "Subordinate
"Subordinate Behaviour
Behaviour and and Management
Management Control",
Control",
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the 5th
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(28) Willmer,
(28) Willmer, M.A.P.
M.A.P. and and Keiser,
Keiser, J. J. (1982),
(1982), "The"The Ethics
Ethics ofof Deviousness",
Deviousness",
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Manchester Business School
School Review, Vol.6, No.2,
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Summer/Autumn.
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(29) Willmer,
(29) Willmer, M.A.P.
M.A.P. (1983)
(1983) "The
"The Contribution
Contribution of of the
the Cybernetic
Cybernetic Approach
Approach toto
Management Control",
Management Control", New New Perspectives
Perspectives in in Management
Management Control,
Control, Ed.
Ed. A.
A. Lowe
Lowe
and J.L.J.
and J.L.J. Machin,
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Macmillan, 1983.
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(30) Willmer,
(30) Willmer, M.A.P.
M.A.P. (1984),
(1984), "Freedom
"Freedom in in aa Numerate
Numerate World",
World", Paper presented at
Paper presented at
the Orwe11ian
the Orwellian Symposium,
Symposium, Baden-Baden,
Baden-Baden, August.
August.
 252 M.A.P. Willmer

!!AlIAGING
MANAGING DIRECTOR
THE LEADER
!BE

View of Tar,at
Own Viev Target Aasea,mant ot subordia.ace
Aa.e. ••mant of subordinate
aecord.4
Recorded. Production MAia Obj
Main Objective
active
Number of violation. Lnitial Targot
Initial Tugot
of rSlulatioDI
relulacions Aanod Target
Agreed

FACTORY !!AlIAGER
MANAGER

TI!E SUl!ORDlNAl'Z
THE SUBORDINATE

THE rNFOllMAIION
1'lll rNFOlI!!AIION LINKS AT !N1'!RNAnONAL
rNTERNATIONAL CASTINGS LTD

Figu~o
Fisu~o 1

NH --
HH subordinate who tells the truth and gives an hone81
A naive lIubordinate honesl view of

production each lOOnth.

likely pr-oduction month.
9~
95

90
X"
><
)(
N

8~
85 .,(

AVERAGE
~VfRAGE ><
SCORE
SCORE

80
l<

75

30,000
30,000 31,000
31,000 32,000
)2,000 33,000
)),000 34,000
34,000 AVERAGE ~LUNJ(
AVERAGE l:LUNK PRUDUCTION
PRODUCTION
THE VAlUATION
THE VARIATION 01' AVERAGE SCORE
O~ AVERAGE SCORE WITH
WITH CLUNK
CLUNK PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION :: A
A COMPARISON
COMPARISON BETWEEN
BETWEEN A
A NAIVE
NAIVE
SUBORDINATE AND
SUBORDINATE AND SOME
SOHE EXPERIMENTAL
EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
RESULTS

Figure
Fillure
 Art'I)rlcwl
Can Art'i" l'elal
,. hltell'
Illteir1gence Do BBetter th an H
etter than Humans
umans'? 253

Managers)
(58 Managers) TOP TEN
33,000
33,000

PRODUCTION
PRODIICTJON

32,000
12,000

/r
31,000
11,000 8OTTOH TEN
BOTTOH TEN
x

30,000
30,000
-)( k ~ , I~ I
f;.
t ~
6 12
12
I«lNTH
I«)NT"

V~RIATlON OF
VARIATION OF PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION WITH
WITH TIME
TIME

1.5
(58 ~nog.r!)
(58 M.lnogerl)
ERROR
ERROR
LEVEL
LEVEL

1.0

0 .5

-~
10
10 12
I«)NTH
I«lNTH

V~RI~TlON OF
VARIATION LEVEL WI
OF ERROR LEVEl WITH TIME
TH TIME

FIg. 3(b)
Fig. 3(b)

X TOP TEN
o BOTTOM TEN
ERlmR
ERROR
LEVEL
LEVEL

)(
)(

o x
x
x x
0o x
o
x
0
°0 °0
0o
x
X

0
x
0o ~,OOO----------13~I,~ooOio~-----------:JzJmo------------~~~----
31,Odo 32,000
32,dOo 33:000
---~
~
31),000
PROOUCTlON
PRODUCTION
YAR1~TlON OF ER ROR
THE VARIATION
THE ROR LEVEL
LEVEl WITH
WITH pnoN~
PRODUCTION
u~TlON

Fig. 3(e)
Fig. 3(e)
254
254 M.A.P. Willmer
M.A.P. Willmer

33,000

PRODUCT ION

3Z ,000 -

31,000
31,000

30 ,O~~
JO ,ODD

C~PAAlSON 'TOP TEN'

BETWEEN 'lOP TEN'
COHPAAISOH Bnl/[EN
Hl.f1ANS AND ~
HlJ1ANS AND TWO A.
A.1. STRATEGn~
1. STRATEGtlS
IIlNTII
"'NTII
12
12

no.. 4(.1
Flo ~(a)

1.5

ERROR
ERROR
LEVEl
LEVn 1.0

1.5
1.5

--+
-4-- 1 - - - j__ _Ji..- -
~L--~

10
,
12
;)

C~PARISON
COMPARISON BETWEEN' TOP TEN' HlJ1
A•
BETWEEN
B
ANS BANO
'TOP TEN' Hl.f1 ANS AND TWO
T\IO
10 "'NTH \-7
IIlN12
" . 1. STRATEGIES TH
.1. STRATEGIES

•I STRATEGY lA
STltAnGY
oo STRATtGY!I
SnAT!GT I
Qv (0f'1[1I
109 T["

,,001
lUtL

lO ....
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31,000 ", ...
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.
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MTWU 'lor TU' T1Of11, STlAncu:s
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IMWIS NfD TWO A.I . ntAn:CllS
 Intelligence Do Better than Humans ?
Can Artificial Intelligence 255

• TOP TU
TEll
"o ~T1tATEGY
~T1IATEGY Cl - rull
Full Allowance
Allowanc ••, Bute inc.--nt SOO
IInic tnc.--nt 500
34 ,000
34.000 cz -- rull
STRATEG'r CZ
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AllllW.nce. 80s te Incr_t
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FIg.
Fig. 51,1
5(a'

Il TOP nR
TOP TIN

oo 5T11ATroI' DI - lO!
staAT1!GT DI AII_........
20% All_ne., B.. I. Incr~nt SOO
Ie In.r~ftt 500

D2 - 201
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mATtm' 201 A
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PIOOUCTIOll IftT8 TIMI -- 110
110 TAIlGIT
TO\IlGIT LIK1TS
L1!f1TS

Fig.5 (b)
Fig,S(b)
256 M. A. P. WilImer
M.A.P. Willmer

I STltATtGY
X STlIAltGY Cl - Full All .... nu. 'ule
All_flu, lule ltne.--t
n e _ t 500
f1 STUTtGY CZ
STRAltGY C2 All_net, lule
- Full All.-net. Ills le lne ....ftt 1,000
flt 1.000

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31.000 32,000
32.000 33,000
33.000
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 Can Artificial
Can Artificial Intelligen
Intelligence Do Better than Humans?
ce Do Humans ? 257

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Another random document with
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were unsatisfactory to several of the concerted Powers, and
were sharply criticised in the British and German press. The
German government, especially, was disposed to insist upon
stern and strenuous measures in dealing with that of China,
and it addressed the following circular note, on the 18th of
September, to all the Powers:

"The Government of the Emperor holds as preliminary to

entering upon diplomatic relations with the Chinese Government
that those persons must be delivered up who have been proved
to be the original and real instigators of the outrages
against international law which have occurred at Peking. The
number of those who were merely instruments in carrying out
the outrages is too great. Wholesale executions would be
contrary to the civilized conscience, and the circumstances of
such a group of leaders cannot be completely ascertained. But
a few whose guilt is notorious should be delivered up and
punished. The representatives of the powers at Peking are in a
position to give or bring forward convincing evidence. Less
importance attaches to the number punished than to their
character as chief instigators or leaders. The Government
believes it can count on the unanimity of all the Cabinets in
regard to this point, insomuch as indifference to the idea of
just atonement would be equivalent to indifference to a
repetition of the crime. The Government proposes, therefore,
that the Cabinets concerned should instruct their
representatives at Peking to indicate those leading Chinese
personages from whose guilt in instigating or perpetrating
outrages all doubt is excluded."

The British government was understood to be not unwilling to

support this demand from Germany, but little encouragement
seems to have been officially given to it from other quarters,
and the government of the United States was most emphatic in
declining to approve it. The reply of the latter to the German
circular note was promptly given, September 21, as follows:
"The government of the United States has, from the outset,
 proclaimed its purpose to hold to the uttermost accountability
the responsible authors of any wrongs done in China to
citizens of the United States and their interests, as was
stated in the Government's circular communication to the
Powers of July 3 last. These wrongs have been committed not
alone in Peking, but in many parts of the Empire, and their
punishment is believed to be an essential element of any
effective settlement which shall prevent a recurrence of such
outrages and bring about permanent safety and peace in China.
It is thought, however, that no punitive measures can be so
effective by way of reparation for wrongs suffered and as
deterrent examples for the future as the degradation and
punishment of the responsible authors by the supreme Imperial
authority itself, and it seems only just to China that she
should be afforded in the first instance an opportunity to do
this and thus rehabilitate herself before the world.

"Believing thus, and without abating in anywise its deliberate

purpose to exact the fullest accountability from the
responsible authors of the wrongs we have suffered in China,
the Government of the United States is not disposed, as a
preliminary condition to entering into diplomatic negotiations
with the Chinese Government, to join in a demand that said
Government surrender to the Powers such persons as, according
to the determination of the Powers themselves, may be held to
be the first and real perpetrators of those wrongs. On the
other hand, this Government is disposed to hold that the
punishment of the high responsible authors of these wrongs,
not only in Peking, but throughout China, is essentially a
condition to be embraced and provided for in the negotiations
for a final settlement.
{139}
It is the purpose of this Government, at the earliest
practicable moment, to name its plenipotentiaries for
negotiating a settlement with China, and in the mean time to
authorize its Minister in Peking to enter forthwith into
conference with the duly authorized representatives of the
Chinese Government, with a view of bringing about a
preliminary agreement whereby the full exercise of the
Imperial power for the preservation of order and the
protection of foreign life and property throughout China,
pending final negotiations with the Powers, shall be assured."

On the same day on which the above note was written the
American government announced its recognition of Prince Ching
and Li Hung-chang, as plenipotentiaries appointed to represent
the Emperor of China, in preliminary negotiations for the
restoration of the imperial authority at Peking and for a
settlement with the foreign Powers.

Differences between the Powers acting together in China, as to

the preliminary conditions of negotiation with the Chinese
government, and as to the nature and range of the demands to
be made upon it, were finally adjusted on the lines of a
proposal advanced by the French Foreign Office, in a note
dated October 4, addressed to the several governments, as
follows:

"The intention of the Powers in sending their forces to China

was, above all, to deliver the Legations. Thanks to their
union and the valour of their troops this object has been
attained. The question now is to obtain from the Chinese
Government, which has given Prince Ching and Li Hung-chang
full powers to negotiate and to treat in its name, suitable
reparation for the past and serious guarantees for the future.
Penetrated with the spirit which has evoked the previous
declarations of the different Governments, the Government of
the Republic has summarized its own sentiments in the
following points, which it submits as a basis for the
forthcoming negotiations after the customary verification of
powers:

(1) The punishment of the chief culprits, who will be

designated by the representatives of the Powers in Peking.
(2) The maintenance of the embargo on the importation of arms.

(3) Equitable indemnity for the States and for private

persons.

(4) The establishment in Peking of a permanent guard for the

Legations.

(5) The dismantling of the Ta-ku forts.

(6) The military occupation of two or three points on the

Tien-tsin-Peking route, thus assuring complete liberty of
access for the Legations should they wish to go to the coast
and to forces from the sea-board which might have to go up to
the capital.

It appears impossible to the Government of the Republic that

these so legitimate conditions, if collectively presented by
the representatives of the Powers and supported by the
presence of the international troops, will not shortly be
accepted by the Chinese Government."

On the 17th of October, the French Embassy at Washington

announced to the American government that "all the interested
powers have adhered to the essential principles of the French
note," and added: "The essential thing now is to show the
Chinese Government, which has declared itself ready to
negotiate, that the powers are animated by the same spirit;
that they are decided to respect the integrity of China and
the independence of its Government, but that they are none the
less resolved to obtain the satisfaction to which they have a
right. In this regard it would seem that if the proposition
which has been accepted as the basis of negotiations were
communicated to the Chinese plenipotentiaries by the Ministers
of the powers at Peking, or in their name by their Dean, this
step would be of a nature to have a happy influence upon the
determinations of the Emperor of China and of his Government."
The government of the United States approved of this
suggestion from France, and announced that it had "instructed
its Minister in Peking to concur in presenting to the Chinese
plenipotentiaries the points upon which we are agreed." Other
governments, however, seem to have given different
instructions, and some weeks were spent by the foreign
Ministers at Peking in formulating the joint note in which
their requirements were to be presented to Prince Ching and
Earl Li.

The latter, meantime, had submitted, on their own part, to the

allied plenipotentiaries, a draft of what they conceived to be
the just preliminaries of a definitive treaty. They prefaced
it with a brief review of what had occurred, and some remarks,
confessing that "the throne now realizes that all these
calamities have been caused by the fact that Princes and high
Ministers of State screened the Boxer desperados, and is
accordingly determined to punish severely the Princes and
Ministers concerned in accordance with precedent by handing
them over to their respective Yamêns for the determination of
a penalty." The "draft clauses" then submitted were as
follows:

"The siege of the Legations was a flagrant violation of the

usages of international law and an utterly unpermissible act.
China admits the gravity of her error and undertakes that
there shall be no repetition of the occurrence. China admits
her liability to pay an indemnity, and leaves it to the Powers
to appoint officers who shall investigate the details and make
out a general statement of claims to be dealt with
accordingly.

"With regard to the subsequent trade relations between China

and the foreign Powers, it will be for the latter to make
their own arrangements as to whether former treaties shall be
 adhered to in their entirety, modified in details, or
exchanged for new ones. China will take steps to put the
respective proposals into operation accordingly.

"Before drawing up a definitive treaty it will be necessary

for China and the Powers to be agreed as to general
principles. Upon this agreement being arrived at, the
Ministers of the Powers will remove the seals which have been
affixed to the various departments of the Tsung-li-Yamên and
proceed to the Yamên for the despatch of business in matters
relating to international questions exactly as before.

"So soon as a settlement of matters of detail shall have been

agreed upon between China and the various nations concerned in
accordance with the requirements of each particular nation,
and so soon as the question of the payment of an indemnity
shall have been satisfactorily settled, the Powers will
respectively withdraw their troops. The despatch of troops to
China by the Powers was undertaken with the sole object of
protecting the Ministers, and so soon as peace negotiations
between China and the Powers shall have been opened there
shall be a cessation of hostilities.

{140}

"The statement that treaties will be made with each of the

Powers in no way prejudices the fact that with regard to the
trade conventions mentioned the conditions vary in accordance
with the respective powers concerned. With regard to the
headings of a definitive treaty, questions of nomenclature and
precedence affecting each of the Powers which may arise in
framing the treaty can be adjusted at personal conferences."
Great Britain and Germany were now acting in close accord,
having, apparently, been drawn together by a common distrust
of the intentions of Russia. On the 16th of October, Lord
Salisbury and Count Hatzfeldt signed the following agreement,
which was made known at once to the other governments
concerned, and its principles assented to by all:

"Her Britannic Majesty's Government and the Imperial German

Government, being desirous to maintain their interests in
China and their rights under existing treaties, have agreed to
observe the following principles in regard to their mutual policy
in China:—

"1. It is a matter of joint and permanent international

interest that the ports on the rivers and littoral of China
should remain free and open to trade and to every other
legitimate form of economic activity for the nationals of all
countries without distinction; and the two Governments agree
on their part to uphold the same for all Chinese territory as
far as they can exercise influence.

"2. The Imperial German Government and her Britannic Majesty's

Government will not, on their part, make use of the present
complication to obtain for themselves any territorial
advantages in Chinese dominions, and will direct their policy
towards maintaining undiminished the territorial condition of
the Chinese Empire.

"3. In case of another Power making use of the complications

in China in order to obtain under any form whatever such
territorial advantages, the two Contracting Parties reserve to
themselves to come to a preliminary understanding as to the
eventual steps to be taken for the protection of their own
interests in China.

"4. The two Governments will communicate this Agreement to the

other Powers interested, and especially to Austria-Hungary,
France, Italy, Japan, Russia, and the United States of
America, and will invite them to accept the principles
recorded in it."

The assent of Russia was no less positive than that of the

other Powers. It was conveyed in the following words: "The
first point of this Agreement, stipulating that the ports
situated on the rivers and littoral of China, wherever the two
Governments exercise their influence, should remain free and
open to commerce, can be favorably entertained by Russia, as
this stipulation does not infringe in any way the 'status quo'
established in China by existing treaties. The second point
corresponds all the more with the intentions of Russia, seeing
that, from the commencement of the present complications, she
was the first to lay down the maintenance of the integrity of
the Chinese Empire as a fundamental principle of her policy in
China. As regards the third point relating to the eventuality
of an infringement of this fundamental principle, the Imperial
Government, while referring to their Circular of the 12th
(25th) August, can only renew the declaration that such an
infringement would oblige Russia to modify her attitude
according to circumstances."

On the 13th of November, while the foreign plenipotentiaries

at Peking were trying to agree in formulating the demands they
should make, the Chinese imperial government issued a decree
for the punishment of officials held responsible for the Boxer
outrages. As given the Press by the Japanese Legation at
Washington, in translation from the text received there, it
was as follows;

"Orders have been already issued for the punishment of the

officials responsible for opening hostilities upon friendly
Powers and bringing the country into the present critical
condition by neglecting to suppress and even by encouraging
the Boxers. But as Peking and its neighborhood have not yet
been entirely cleared of the Boxers, the innocent people are
still suffering terribly through the devastation of their
fields and the destruction of their houses, a state of affairs
which cannot fail to fill one with the bitterest feelings
against these officials. And if they are not severely
punished, how can the anger of the people be appeased and the
 indignation of the foreign Powers allayed?

"Accordingly, Prince Tuan is hereby deprived of his title and

rank, and shall, together with Prince Chwang, who has already
been deprived of his title, be delivered to the Clan Court to
be kept in prison until the restoration of peace, when they
shall be banished to Sheng-King, to be imprisoned for life.
Princes Yi and Tsai Yung, who have both been already deprived
of their titles, are also to be delivered to the Clan Court
for imprisonment, while Prince Tsai Lien, also already
deprived of title and rank, is to be kept confined in his own
house, Duke Tsai Lan shall forfeit his ducal salary, but may
be transferred with the degradation of one rank. Chief Censor
Ying Nien shall be degraded two ranks and transferred. As to
Kang Yi, Minister of the Board of Civil Appointment, upon his
return from the commission on which he had been sent for the
purpose of making inquiries into the Boxer affair he
memorialized the Throne in an audience strongly in their
favor. He should have been severely punished but for his death
from illness, and all penalties are accordingly remitted. Chao
Shuy Yao, Minister of the Board of Punishment, who had been
sent on a mission similar to that of Kang Yi, returned almost
immediately. Though such conduct was a flagrant neglect of his
duties, still he did not make a distorted report to the
Throne, and therefore he shall be deprived of his rank, but
allowed to retain his present office. Finally, Yu Hsien,
ex-Governor of Shan-Se, allowed, while in office, the Boxers
freely to massacre the Christian missionaries and converts.
For this he deserves the severest punishment, and therefore he
is to be banished to the furthermost border of the country, and
there to be kept at hard labor for life.

{141}

"We have a full knowledge of the present trouble from the very
beginning, and therefore, though no impeachment has been brought
by Chinese officials at home or abroad against Princes Yi,
Tsai Lien and Tsai Yung, we order them to be punished in the
same manner as those who have been impeached. All who see this
edict will thus perceive our justice and impartiality in
inflicting condign penalties upon these officials," It was not
until the 20th of December that the joint note of the
plenipotentiaries of the Powers, after having been submitted
in November to the several governments represented, and
amended to remove critical objections, was finally signed and
delivered to the Chinese plenipotentiaries. The following is a
precis of the requirements set forth in it:

"(1) An Imperial Prince is to convey to Berlin the Emperor's

regret for the assassination of Baron von Ketteler, and a
monument is to be erected on the site of the murder, with an
inscription, in Latin, German, and Chinese, expressing the
regret of the Emperor for the murder.

"(2) The most severe punishment fitting their crimes is to be

inflicted on the personages designated in the Imperial decree
of September 21, whose names—not mentioned—are Princes Tuan
and Chuang and two other princes, Duke Lan, Chao Shu-chiao,
Yang-yi, Ying-hien, also others whom the foreign Ministers
shall hereafter designate. Official examinations are to be
suspended for five years in those cities where foreigners have
been assassinated or cruelly treated.

"(3) Honourable reparation is to be made to Japan for the

murder of M. Sugiyama.

"(4) Expiatory monuments are to be erected in all foreign

cemeteries where tombs have been desecrated.

"(5) The importation of arms or 'materiel' and their

manufacture are to be prohibited.

"(6) An equitable indemnity is to be paid to States,

societies, and individuals, also to Chinese who have suffered
injury because of their employment by foreigners. China will
adopt financial measures acceptable to the Powers to guarantee
the payment of the indemnity and the service of the loans.

"(7) Permanent Legation guards are to be maintained, and the

diplomatic quarter is to be fortified.

"(8) The Ta-ku forts and those between Peking and the sea are
to be razed.

"(9) There is to be a military occupation of points necessary

to ensure the safety of the communications between Peking and
the sea.

"(10) Proclamations are to be posted during two years

throughout the Empire threatening death to any person joining
an anti-foreign society and enumerating the punishment
inflicted by China upon the guilty ringleaders of the recent
outrages. An Imperial edict is to be promulgated ordering
Viceroys, Governors, and Provincial officials to be held
responsible for anti-foreign outbreaks or violations of
treaties within their jurisdiction, failure to suppress the
same being visited by the immediate cashiering of the
officials responsible, who shall never hold office again.

"(11) China undertakes to negotiate a revision of the

commercial treaties in order to facilitate commercial
relations.

"(12) The Tsung-li-Yamên is to be reformed, and the Court

ceremonial for the reception of foreign Ministers modified in
the sense indicated by the Powers.

"Until the foregoing conditions are complied with ('se

conformer à') the Powers can hold out no expectation of a
limit of time for the removal of the foreign troops now
occupying Peking and the provinces."
CHINA: A. D. 1900 (November).
Russo-Chinese agreement relating to Manchuria.

See (in this volume)

MANCHURIA.

CHINA: A. D. 1900 (December).

Russo-Chinese agreement concerning the Manchurian
province of Fêng-tien.

See (in this volume)

MANCHURIA: A. D. 1900.

CHINA: A. D. 1900-1901 (November-February).

Seizure of grounds at Peking for a large Legation Quarter.
Extensive plans of fortification.

In February, 1901, the following from a despatch written in

the previous November by Mr. Conger, the American Minister at
Peking, was given to the Press by the State Department at
Washington: "I have the honor to report that in view of the
probability of keeping large legation grounds in the future,
and because of the general desire on the part of all the
European representatives to have extensive legations, all of
the Ministers are taking possession of considerable areas
adjoining their legations—property belonging either to the
Chinese Government or to private citizens, and having been
abandoned by the owners during the siege—with the intention to
claim them as conquest, or possibly credit something for them
on their account for indemnity. I have as yet not taken formal
possession of any ground for this purpose, nor shall I without
instructions, but I shall not for the present permit any of the
owners or other persons to reoccupy any of the property
between this legation and the canal to the east of it. While
this area will be very small in comparison with the other
legations, yet it will be sufficient to make both the legation
 personnel and the guard very comfortable, and will better
comport with our traditional simplicity vis-a-vis the usual
magnificence of other representatives.

"It is proposed to designate the boundaries of a legation

quarter, which shall include all the legations, and then
demand the right to put that in a state of defence when
necessary, and to prohibit the residence of Chinese there,
except by permission of the Ministers. If, therefore, these
ideas as to guards, defence, etc:., are to be carried out, a
larger legation will be an absolute necessity. In fact, it is
impossible now to accommodate the legation and staff in our
present quarters without most inconvenient crowding.

"There are no public properties inside the legation quarter

which we could take as a legation. All the proposed property
to be added, as above mentioned, to our legation, is private
ground, except a very small temple in the southeast corner,
and I presume, under our policy, if taken, will be paid for
either to the Chinese owners or credited upon account against
the Chinese Government for indemnity, although I suspect most
of the other Governments will take theirs as a species of
conquest. The plot of ground adjoining and lying to the cast
of the legation to which I have made reference is about the
size of the premises now occupied by us."

Before its adjournment on the 4th of March, 1901, the Congress

of the United States made an appropriation for the purchase of
grounds for its Legation at Peking, and instructions were sent
to make the purchase.

{142}

By telegram from Peking on the 14th of February it was

announced that a formidable plan of fortification for this
Legation Quarter had been drawn up by the Military Council of
the Powers at Peking, and that work upon it was to begin at
once. The correspondent of the "London Times" described the
plan and wrote satirically of it, as follows; "From supreme
contempt for the weakness of China armed we have swayed to
exaggerated fear of the strength of China disarmed. The
international military experts have devised a scheme for
putting the Legation quarter in a state of defence which is
equivalent to the construction of an International fortress
alongside the Imperial Palace. The plan requires the breaching
of the city wall at the Water-gate, the levelling of the Ha-ta
Mên and Chien Mên towers, the demolition of the ramparts
giving access to them, the sweeping clear of a space 150 to
300 yards wide round the entire Legation area, and the
construction of walls, glacis, moats, barbed wire defences,
with siege guns, Maxims, and barracks capable of holding 2,000
troops, with military stores and equipment sufficient to
withstand a siege of three months. All public buildings,
boards, and civil offices between the Legations and the
Imperial walls are to be levelled, while 11,000 foreign troops
are to hold the communications between Peking and the sea, so
that no Chinese can travel to Peking from the sea without the
knowledge of the foreign military authorities.

"The erection of the defences is to begin at once, before the

return of the Court to Peking. They are no doubt devised to
encourage the Court to return to Peking, it being apparently
the belief of the foreign Ministers that an Imperial Court
governing an independent empire are eager to place themselves
under the tutelage of foreign soldiers and within the reach of
foreign Maxims.

"Within the large new Legation area all the private property
of Chinese owners who years before sought the advantages of
vicinity to the Legations has been seized by the foreign
Legations. France and Germany, with a view to subsequent
commercial transactions, have annexed many acres of valuable
private property for which no compensation is contemplated,
while the Italian Legation, which boasts a staff of two
 persons, carrying out the scheme of appropriation to a logical
absurdity, has, in addition to other property, grabbed the
Imperial Maritime Customs gardens and buildings occupied for
so many years by Sir Robert Hart and his staff."

CHINA: A. D. 1901 (January-February).

Famine in Shensi.

A Press telegram from Peking, late in January, announced a

fearful famine prevailing in the province of Shensi, where
thousands of natives were dying. The Chinese government was
distributing rice, and there was reported to be discrimination
against native Christians in the distribution. Mr. Conger, Sir
E. Satow, and M. Pichon protested to Prince Ching and Li
Hung-chang against such discrimination. A Court edict was
therefore issued on the 26th instant ordering all relief
officials and Chinese soldiers to treat Christians in exactly
the same way as all other Chinese throughout the Empire, under
penalty of decapitation. Another despatch, early in February,
stated: "Trustworthy reports received here from Singan-fu [the
temporary residence of the fugitive Chinese court] all agree
that the famine in the provinces of Shen-si and Shan-si is one
of the worst in the history of China. It is estimated that
two-thirds of the people are without sufficient food or the
means of obtaining it. They are also suffering from the bitter
cold. As there is little fuel in either province the woodwork
of the houses is being used to supply the want. Oxen, horses,
and dogs have been practically all sacrificed to allay hunger.
Three years of crop failures in both provinces and more or less
of famine in previous seasons had brought the people to
poverty when winter began. This year their condition has
rapidly grown worse. Prince Ching stated to Mr. Conger, the
United States Minister, that the people were reduced to eating
human flesh and to selling their women and children.
Infanticide is alarmingly common."

CHINA: A. D. 1901 (January-February).

Submission to the demands of the Powers
by the Imperial Government.
Punishments inflicted and promised.
A new Reform Edict.

With no great delay, the Chinese plenipotentiaries at Peking

were authorized by the Emperor and Empress to agree to the
demands of the Powers, which they did by formally signing the
Joint Note. Prince Ching gave his signature on the 12th of
January, 1901, and Li Hung-chang, who was seriously ill,
signed on the following day. Discussion of the punishments to
be inflicted on guilty officials was then opened, and went on
for some time. On the 5th of February, the foreign Ministers
submitted the names of twelve leading officials, against whom
formal indictments were framed, and who were considered to be
deserving of death. Three of them, however (Kang Yi, Hsu Tung,
and Li Ping Heng), were found to be already deceased. The
remaining nine were the following: Prince Chuang,
commander-in-chief of the Boxers; Prince Tuan, who was held to
be the principal instigator of the attack on foreigners; Duke
Lan, the Vice-President of Police, who admitted the Boxers to
the city; Yu Hsien, who was the governor of Shan-Si Province,
promoter of the Boxer movement there, and director of the
massacres in that province; General Tung Fu Siang, who led the
attacks on the Legations, Ying Nien, Chao Hsu Kiao, Hsu Cheng
Yu, and Chih Siu, who were variously prominent in the
murderous work. In the cases of Prince Tuan and Duke Lan, who
were related to the Imperial family, and in the case of
General Tung Fu Siang, whose military command gave him power
to be troublesome, the Chinese court pleaded such difficulties
in the way of executing a decree of death that the Ministers
at Peking were persuaded to be satisfied with sentences of
exile, or degradation in rank, or both. On the 21st of
February the Ministers received notice that an imperial edict
had been issued, condemning General Tung Fu Siang to be
degraded and deprived of his rank; Prince Tuan and Duke Lan to
be disgraced and exiled; Prince Chuang, Ying Nien and Chao Hsu
 Kiao to commit suicide; Hsu Cheng Yu, Yu Hsien and Chih Siu to
be beheaded. Hsu Cheng Yu and Chih Siu were then prisoners in
the hands of the foreign military authorities at Peking, and
the sentence was executed upon them there, on the 26th of
February, in the presence of Japanese, French, German and
American troops. A despatch from Peking reporting the
execution stated that, while it was being carried out, "the
ministers held a meeting and determined on the part of the
majority to draw a curtain over further demands for blood.
United States Special Commissioner Rockhill sided strongly
with those favoring humane methods, who are Sir Ernest Satow
and MM. Komura, De Cologan and De Giers, respectively British,
Japanese, Spanish and Russian ministers. Others believe that
China has not been sufficiently punished, and that men should
be executed in every city, town and village where foreigners
were injured."

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While the subject of punishments was pending, and with a view,

it was said, of quickening the action of the Chinese
government, Count von Waldersee, the German Field-Marshal
commanding the allied forces in China, ordered preparations to
be made for an extensive military expedition into the
interior. The government of the United States gave prompt
directions that its forces at Peking should not take part in
this movement, and the remonstrances of other Powers more
pacifically inclined than the Germans caused the project to be
given up.

Meantime, three Imperial edicts of importance, if faithfully

carried out, had been issued. One, on the 5th of February,
commanded new undertakings of reform, accounting for the
abandonment of the reform movement of 1898 by declaring that
it was seditionary and would have resulted in anarchy, and
that it was entered upon when the Emperor was in bad health;
for all which reasons he had requested the Empress Dowager to
 resume the reins of government. Now, it was declared, since
peace negotiations were in progress, the government should be
formed on a basis for future prosperity. Established good
methods of foreign countries should be introduced to supply
China's deficiencies. "China's greatest difficulty," said the
edict, "is her old customs, which have resulted in the
insincere dispatch of business and the promoting of private
gain. Up to the present time those who have followed the
Western methods have had only superficial knowledge, knowing
only a little of foreign languages and foreign inventions,
without knowing the real basis of the strength of foreign
nations. Such methods are insufficient for real reform."

In order to obtain a true basis, the Emperor commanded a

consultation between the ministers of the privy council, the
six boards, nine officers, the Chinese ministers to foreign
countries and all the viceroys and governors. Those were
instructed to recommend reforms in the seven branches of
government, namely, the central government, ceremonies,
taxation, schools, civil-service examinations, military
affairs and public economies. They were also to recommend what
part of the old system can be used and what part needs changing.
Two months were given them in which to prepare their report.

On the following day, two edicts, in fulfilment of demands

made in the Joint Note of the Powers, were promulgated. The
first provided, in accordance with article 3 of the Joint
Note, for the suspension of official examinations for five
years in places where foreigners are killed. The second edict
forbade anti-foreign societies, recited the punishment of
guilty parties and declared that local officials will be held
responsible for the maintenance of order. If trouble occurs
the officials would be removed without delay and never again
allowed to hold office.

CHINA: A. D. 1901 (March).

The murdered Christian missionaries and native converts.
Varying statements and estimates of their number.

To the time of this writing (March, 1901), no complete

enumeration of the foreign Christian missionaries and members
of missionary families who were killed during the Boxer
outbreak of the past year has been made. Varying estimates
have appeared, from time to time, and it is possible that one
of the latest among these, communicated from Shanghai on the
1st of March, may approach to accuracy. It was published in
the "North China Daily News," and said to be founded on the
missionary records, according to which, said the "News," "a
total of 134 adults and 52 children were killed or died of
injuries in the Boxer rising of 1899 and 1900."

On the 13th of March, the "Lokal Anzeiger," of Berlin,

published a statistical report from its Peking correspondent
of "foreign Christians killed during the troubles, exclusive
of the Peking siege," which enumerated 118 Englishmen, 79
Americans, Swedes and Norwegians, 26 Frenchmen, 11 Belgians,
10 Italians and Swiss, and 1 German. The total of these
figures is largely in excess of those given by the "North
China Daily News," but they cover, not missionaries alone, but
all foreign Christians. It is impossible, however, not to
doubt the accuracy of both these accounts. Of native
Christians, the German writer estimated that 30,000 had
perished. In September, 1900, the United States Consul-General
at Shanghai, Mr. Goodnow, "after making inquiries from every
possible source," placed the number of British and American
missionaries who had probably been killed at 93, taking no
account of a larger number in Chih-li and Shan-si whose fate
was entirely unknown. Of those whose deaths he believed to be
absolutely proved at that time, 34 were British, including 9
men, 15 women and 10 children, and 22 were American, 8 of
these being men, 8 women and 6 children.

In December, 1900, a private letter from the "Association for

the Propagation of the Faith, St. Mary's Seminary," Baltimore,
 Maryland, stated that up to the end of September 48 Catholic
missionaries were known to have been murdered. A pastoral
letter issued in December by Cardinal Vaughan, in London,
without stating the numbers killed, declared that all work of
the Catholic church, throughout the most of China, where 942
European and 445 native priests had been engaged, was
practically swept away.

A private letter, written early in January, 1901, by the

Reverend Dr. Judson Smith, one of the corresponding
secretaries of the American Board of Commissioners for Foreign
Missions, contains the following statement: "The American
Board has lost in the recent disturbances in China 13
missionaries, 6 men and 7 women, and 5 children belonging to
the families who perished. The number of native converts
connected with the mission churches of the American Board who
have suffered death during these troubles cannot be stated
with accuracy. It undoubtedly exceeds 1,000; it may reach a
much larger figure; but some facts that have come to light of
late imply that more of those who were supposed to be lost
have been in hiding than was known. If we should reckon along
with native converts members of their families who have
suffered death, the number would probably be doubled."

There seems to be absolutely no basis of real information for

any estimate that has been made of the extent of massacre
among the native Christian converts. Thousands perished,
without doubt, but how many thousands is yet to be learned. As
intimated by Dr. Smith, larger numbers than have been supposed
may have escaped, and it will probably be long before the true
facts are gathered from all parts of the country.

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In any view, the massacre of missionaries and their families

was hideous enough; but fictions of horror were shamefully
added, it seems, in some of the stories which came from the