Inquiry and Time Frame

Mr. Wetfoot has reached out to me to determine how much rain fell during an approximate
three-day period, and he wants to know if the rain was caused by a tropical cyclone. The studied time
frame will be six days before the incident occurred to find the evolution of a storm or tropical cyclone,
but the examination period for total rainfall will be between September 20 and 8 AM September 23 (the
end of the observation day).

Data Sources and Data

Data sources used to find Mr. Wetfoot’s requests include daily rainfall data from SC ACIS at the
CO-OP site on top of Walker Building, the WeatherSTEM sensors at Beaver Stadium and Penn State
University Arboretum and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHs) to
determine the maximum rainfall rate and surrounding rainfall totals, radar data and the WPC surface
analysis archive to find the origins and development of the storm, the 2021 National Hurricane Center
(NHC) tropical cyclone reports to verify possibilities of the influence/origins of a tropical cyclone, and the
Storm Events Database from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) to cross-check
other observations and areas of flooding.

The daily rainfall data from SC ACIS at Walker Building presents a rainfall total of 2.94 inches
from 12 AM September 20 to 8 AM September 23. The CO-OP form for the official State College site
cross-checks this total and verifies that it is accurate from SC ACIS. However, an additional note appears
on the CO-OP form that the 1-day precipitation total for September 23 broke the 1-day precipitation
record for the same day in 1909 of 2.25 inches, meaning that amounts of this magnitude have been
uncommon. Similar amounts were found at the WeatherSTEM sensors at Beaver Stadium and PSU
Arboretum where approximately 1.39 and 1.81 inches of rain fell, respectively, and the maximum rainfall
rate found during the event was 1.58 inches per hour at Beaver Stadium. It is important to note that this
maximum rain rate was recorded near the end of the rain event at 6:48 AM. Finally, CoCoRaHs rainfall
observations around State College were generally similar to the official CO-OP observation and
WeatherSTEM sensors.

As for the origins of the system, both radar reflectivity and the WPC surface analysis for
September 23, 2021 at 09 UTC depicted an occluded low pressure system over Lake Erie with a cold front
draped across central PA. Tropical systems do not have fronts attached to them during their lifetime
before extra-tropical transition. To ensure the low pressure system did not originally have tropical
characteristics before nearing Lake Erie, a multitude of radar scans and WPC surface analyses ranging
from September 19 to September 22 were retrieved. These surface analyses showed the progression of a
low pressure system and a cold front attached to it crossing the Continental US, originating from British
Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.

To further verify that the rain caused by the storm system was not from a tropical cyclone,
tropical cyclone reports were pulled from the NHC for the 2021 season. The only active tropical cyclones
during the examination period were Tropical Storm Peter, Tropical Storm Rose, and Hurricane Sam. All
these tropical cyclones were storms that did not affect much land, and if any, to Puerto Rico and the
Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Odette was in rather close proximity off the Atlantic Seaboard prior to
the main examination period, but the storm underwent extra-tropical transition by September 18 and
raced off into the North Atlantic Ocean by the time of the flooding incident.

The Storm Events Database only indicates two official instances of flooding from the heavy rain
in Centre County, both of which were near rivers or streams. However, the event narrative indicates that
there was widespread flooding across much of Central Pennsylvania from the heavy rain accompanied by
the cold front. In addition, the episode narrative indicates that road closures and flooding were reported
specifically in State College as well.

Shortcomings of Data

There are a couple shortcomings of data for this event, the first being the lack of webcam
footage for the event. Webcam footage could help further vindicate the presence of flooding locally in
downtown State College where Sunset Terrace resides. The second shortcoming of data is that all rainfall
measuring sites are at least several thousand feet away from the accident site. Because rain banding is
mesoscale, other areas could’ve picked up much more or less rain than adjacent locations despite the
synoptic scale of the whole event.

Methodology

Radar data and surface analysis archives for September 17 through September 23 were retrieved
to find the origins of the storm. Going back far enough ensures that no weather pieces that may have
evolved and progressed toward Pennsylvania were missed. CO-OP data from September 20 to 8 AM on
September 23 from SC ACIS were used to check local rainfall totals. Additionally, rainfall data from the
actual CO-OP data form, CoCoRaHs, and WeatherSTEM sensors were used to cross-check totals and
make sure the values made sense. To help support indications of local flooding in and around Sunset
Terrace, official reports from the Storm Events Database were retrieved.

Errors in Methodology

WPC surface analyses are not perfect since they are computer-generated, but radar data widely
supports the synoptic scale and placement of the storm features for the rain event on September 23,
2021. Rain can vary in intensity on a very local scale, even as close as a few thousand feet. However,
rainfall totals during the event were generally pretty uniform and match other observations around the
area, and heavy rain was experienced by all zones. Additionally, flooding can be caused by high rainfall
rates and/or the amount of rain, and the compounding data indicates that the flooding could have been
caused by either. Finally, it is possible that the rain gauges at the CoCoRaHs and WeatherSTEM sites were
not properly maintained since they are non-official recording sites, but the data suggests that a
widespread unmaintained network of rain gauges is extremely unlikely given the mostly uniform rainfall
totals.

Weather Summary

On the morning of September 18, a low pressure system began diving southeast into the US
from British Columbia with a cold front draped on its southwestern flank. The low pressure system
continued to move southeastward, and eventually another low pressure system developed along its cold
front on the morning of September 22. In the evening, another cold front associated with the new low
pressure system approached central PA from the west with moderate showers out ahead of it. A brief lull
with overcast conditions lasted for about an hour before the primary cold front began to enter the State
College region around 12:00 AM on September 23. Heavy rain started to envelop the entire region,
lasting for about ten hours. Official reports of flooding were beginning to be sent in around 6 AM.
Regional rainfall totals ranged from 1.5 to over 3 inches across much of Centre County with the official
CO-OP site at Walker Building recording 2.94 inches of rain for September 23, 2021, a new 1-day
precipitation record, which was last broken in 1909.

Opinion Statement

Given the heavy rain that persisted for several hours, high rainfall rates that accompanied the
cold front, and numerous reports of flooding and road closures in State College, it is very likely that
flooding occurred near and around Sunset Terrace on September 23, 2021. Additionally, because the low
pressure system originated from British Columbia and was not influenced by any tropical system several
thousand miles off the Eastern Seaboard, the rain was not caused by a tropical cyclone.

Image 1. NHC Hurricane Tracks for the 2021 hurricane season; red, circled and rectangular boxes indicate
storm tracks for Tropical Storm Odette, Tropical Storm Peter, Tropical Storm Rose, and Hurricane Sam
during the examined time period
Image 2. CoCoRaHs observations around State College until 9:30 AM on September 23, 2021.

Image 3. WPC Surface Analysis valid for September 23, 2021 at 5 AM EST
Image 4. The B-91 CO-OP form for the official State College CO-OP site

Image 5. The radar reflectivity across the eastern US on September 23, 2021 at 5 AM EST
Image 6. Storm Events Database for the heavy rainfall on September 23, 2021