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Material Dissertation Research
Material Dissertation Research
(RESEARCH)
METHODOLOGY
AND DATA ANALYSIS
HISHAM SHARAWY – DBA PROGRAM CEO
• Systematic
• Logical
• Empirical
• Replicable
• Creative
• Use of multiple methods
Exploratory Research:
Descriptive Research:
• undertaken with the aim of determining the characteristics of a population
or phenomenon
• Previous knowledge of problem exists
• High degree of precision or accuracy required
Examples:
Who are the main consumers of organic foods?
How many students read the prescribed course literature?
Where do most holiday-makers
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis
Hisham Sharawy
travelling overseas go? 10/7/2022
Problem Definition
(Statement of research
objectives)
Non-Probabili Interpretation of
Probability Findings
ty
Sampling
Sampling
Planning a Conclusions
Research Design and Report
Gathering
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy the Data 10/7/2022
RESEARCH PROBLEM
Reading
Academic Experience
Daily Experience
Exposure to Field Situations
Consultations
Brainstorming
Research
Intuition
Symptom Detection
Analysis of
the Situation
Problem Definition
Statement of
Research Objectives
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 10/7/2022
ESTABLISHMENT OF RESEARCH
OBJECTIVES
✶ The format for citing a book is: Author’s name, (year), Title of the
book, Place of publication, Publisher’s name.
✶ For Example; Koontz Harold (1980), Management, New Delhi,
McGraw-Hill International.
✶ The format for citing a journal article is: Author’s name, (year), Title of
the article, Journal name, Volume (number), pages.
✶ For Example; Sheth J.N (1973), A Model of Industrial Buying Behaviour,
Journal of Marketing, 37(4), 50-56.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 10/7/2022
NOTE CARDS
Six steps:
1. Determine and define the research questions
2. Select the cases and determine data gathering and analysis
techniques
3. Prepare to collect the data
4. Collect data in the field
5. Evaluate and analyze the data
6. Prepare the report
(see Robert K. Yin, Stake, R. E. , etc)
• Think about the potential audience and keep them in mind when
you design the study, and present your findings
• Is your findings significant to people in the particular industry?
• Most importantly, are you satisfied with your findings and
research?
5. Collecting
data
• Title/Topic page
• Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Focus for the study
3. Project related literature summary
4. Planned methodology
5. Schedule for completion
• References
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 10/7/2022
• Appendices
THE PROJECT PROPOSAL
Title/Topic page
State your proposed project research topic title. It should be descriptive of the focus and
concise.
• It is very important for you to remember that your Project Proposal must
be evaluated and approved by before you can proceed to undertake the
research required for the Project and write up your Project.
• This Checklist covers the key sections of structure of the Project Proposal
as detailed .
• ensure that your Project Proposal will meet the requirements for
approval. If not, you will be required to correct and re-submit
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 10/7/2022
STRUCTURE OF THE PROJECT
• Title/Topic page
• Executive summary
• Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Orientation
3. Data collection and analysis
4. Key findings
5. Key implications
6. Conclusion
• References
• Appendices Hisham Sharawy
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis 10/7/2022
THE PROJECT DETAILS
Title/Topic page
• The title of the project may be similar to the title of the
Project Proposal but you may wish to modify it after
feedback is provided from the assessor
• The title should also not be too long and 10 words or less
is usually quite sufficient.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 10/7/2022
THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)
Executive summary
The executive summary is written after the first draft of the Project is completed. It is
about long and should cover the following:
2. Orientation
Here, We will orient the reader by describing the background of the
research Project in 2-3 pages. There are two parts of this section:
• The first part provides some more of the literature about the
background field. You provided one or two paragraphs about this
in the Introduction. But here you provide more evidence that you
have read the literature.
• The second part of this section describes the subject organization
that is the target of the study. Discuss its origins
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 10/7/2022
THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)
4. Key findings :
In this section, you take a step back and look at the data to try to identify
the key findings.
5. Key implications
What were the three or four main learning points or principles that you and
the reader can take away and apply in other situations in the future? In this
section, you look at the implications of your findings for three different
targets:
• The literature, that is, ideas in your textbooks and articles
• Managers in the case
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 10/7/2022
• Other managers in your country or region
THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)
6. Conclusion
In this final section, you should cover challenges or issues that
remain unresolved. You should give a summary statement about the
organization purpose as set out in the Introduction has been
achieve.
The following sections describe each step. The sections on findings, conclusions,
and recommendations suggest
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy
questions you should answer at each step
10/7/2022
WHAT ARE THE TYPES OF GENERALIZATION?
- Wikipedia
DATA ANALYTICS
DBA- Research
Methodology and Data
10/7/2022
Analysis Hisham
Sharawy
WHY DO WE ANALYZE DATA
10
Number of errors made
2 Internet use
0
0 5 10 15 20 < once a day
User once a day
once a week
Interaction
profiles of players
in online game
• Quantitative data
• Can be counted or expressed numerically
• Examples:
• Responses to a survey that asks students to rate their level of agreement (1=Strongly
Disagree, 5=Strongly Agree) with the following statement…
• A pile
DBA- Research Methodology of Analysis
and Data rubrics that rate
Hisham students on their understanding of the importance of10/7/2022
Sharawy physical
activity
QUALITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS
“Qualitative data analysis is a search for general statements about relationships among categories of data”
(Marshall & Rossman, 1999; as cited in Elkins, 2009).
• Determine the relative significance of each category by counting the number of times it occurs
• Note responses that do not fit into the categories
• Find compelling quotes to include in your assessment report
Code Response
2 To go to my professor's office hours
3 Some expectations of the college learning environment.
4 2 To challenge myself and talk to my professors
• “Other Category”
• Question: What is one thing you learned from the Excel session?
• “The leader gave her own input so it calmed down some of the nerves.”
• “Junk” Category
• Question: What do you like most about college?
• “My biceps.”
Sample Quotes:
• “Attending classes is more than just being in class, you need to
participate.”
• “It was too generic. The only thing that was positive about the Excel
sessions is when the group leaders went off topic and told about ways
that they could be successful and inside tips that they have learned.”
• “That college professors and TAs are willing to help students, and aren't
as mean or scary as one might think.”
• Content analysis
• Thematic analysis
• Narrative analysis
• Grounded theory analysis
• Discourse analysis
Jan
• Analyzing brand mentions on social media 2021
need it), you can identify an analysis method that aligns with your objectives.
ROLE OF STATISTICIANS
1. Center: A representative or average value that indicates where the middle of the data set is
located
2. Variation: A measure of the amount that the values vary among themselves
3. Distribution: The nature or shape of the distribution of data (such as bell-shaped, uniform,
or skewed)
4. Outliers: Sample values that lie very far away from the vast majority of other sample values
5. Time: Changing characteristics of the data over time
In your groups...
• Take 5 minutes to discuss any previous experiences you have had
working with qualitative and/or quantitative data
• Be prepared to share out to the large group!
Frequency 8 12 6
CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY
2 25 (25/60)=0.333 41.7
3 20 (20/60)=0.417 33.3
Total 60 1.00 100
Data Presentation –Categorical
Variable
Pie Chart: Lists the categories and presents the percent or count of individuals who fall in
each category.
1 15 (15/60)=0.25 25.0
2 25 (25/60)=0.333 41.7
3 20 (20/60)=0.417 33.3
Box Plot
NUMERICAL PRESENTATION
A fundamental concept in summary statistics is that of a central value for a set
of observations and the extent to which the central value characterizes the
whole set of data. Measures of central value such as the mean or median must
be coupled with measures of data dispersion (e.g., average distance from the
mean) to indicate how well the central value characterizes the data as a whole.
To understand how well a central value characterizes a set of observations, let
us consider the following two sets of data:
A: 30, 50, 70
B: 40, 50, 60
The mean of both two data sets is 50. But, the distance of the observations
from the mean in data set A is larger than in the data set B. Thus, the mean of
data set B is a better representation of the data set than is the case for set A.
METHODS OF CENTER MEASUREMENT
The first quartile (Q1) is the first 25% of the data. The second quartile (Q2) is
between the 25th and 50th percentage points in the data. The upper bound of Q2 is
the median. The third quartile (Q3) is the 25% of the data lying between the median
and the 75% cut point in the data.
Q1 is the median of the first half of the ordered observations and Q3 is the median
of the second half of the ordered observations.
METHODS OF VARIABILITY MEASUREMENT
In the following example Q1= ((15+1)/4)1 =4th observation of the data. The 4th
observation is 11. So Q1 is of this data is 11.
Mean 90.41666667
Standard Error 3.902649518
Median 84
Mode 84
Standard Deviation 30.22979318
Sample Variance 913.8403955
Kurtosis -1.183899591
Skewness 0.389872725
Range 95
Minimum 48
Maximum 143
Sum 5425
Count 60
SUMMARY OF THE VARIABLE ‘AGE’ IN THE GIVEN DATA SET
QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES TO FORECASTING
• If the historical data used involve other time series that are believed
to be related to the time series that we are trying to forecast, the
procedure is called a causal method.
• Quantitative approaches are generally preferred.
TIME SERIES DATA
Demand
Demand
Random
movement
Demand
Demand
I labeled
Sales as
My Value
(y)
axis I labeled
Week, t as
My Value (x)
axis
TIME SERIES
• Assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future
• Relate the forecast to only one factor - time
• Include
• Naïve
• Moving average
• Exponential smoothing
• Linear trend line
QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES
• Time Series Method
• Naïve
• Whatever happened recently
will happen again this time
(same time period)
• The model is simple and flexible
• Provides a baseline to measure
other models
• Attempts to capture seasonal
factors at the expense of
ignoring trend.
NAÏVE FORECAST
NAÏVE FORECAST GRAPH
SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
n
Σ Di
MAn = i=1
n
where
n = number of periods in the moving
average
Di = demand in period i
3-MONTH SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
ORDERS MOVING 3
MONTH PER MONTH AVERAGE
i = 1 Di
Σ
Jan 120 –
Feb 90 – MA3 =
Mar 100 – 3
Apr 75 103.3
May110 88.3 90 + 110 + 130
= 3
June 50 95.0
July 75 78.3
Aug130 78.3 = 110 orders
Sept 110 85.0 for Nov
Oct 90 105.0
Nov - 110.0
5-MONTH SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
ORDERS MOVING
MONTH PER MONTH AVERAGE 5
Jan 120 – i = 1 Di
Feb 90 –
Σ
Mar 100 – MA5 =
Apr 75 – 5
May110 –
June 50 99.0 90 + 110 + 130+75+50
= 5
July 75 85.0
Aug130 82.0
Sept 110 88.0 = 91 orders
Oct 90 95.0 for Nov
Nov - 91.0
SMOOTHING EFFECTS
150 –
125 –
5-month
100 –
75 –
Orders
50 –
3-month
25 –
Actual
0–
| | | | | | | | | | |
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug SeptOct Nov
Month
Potential Problems With Moving Average
Cumulative
Absolute Absolute
Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
Qtr Demand Demand Error RSFE Error Error MAD
1 90 100 -10 -10 10 10 10.0
2 95 100 -5 -15 5 15 7.5
3 115 100 +15 0 15 30 10.0
4 100 110 -10 -10 10 40 10.0
5 125 110 +15 +5 15 55 11.0
6 140 110 +30 +35 30 85 14.2
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
▪ Adjusts WMAn = Σ Wi Di
i=1
moving
average where
method to Wi = the weight for period i,
more closely between 0 and 100
percent
reflect data
fluctuations Σ Wi = 1.00
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE EXAMPLE
= 103.4 orders
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
▪ Averaging method
▪ Weights most recent data more strongly
▪ Reacts more to recent changes
▪ Widely used, accurate method
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (CONT.)
Ft +1 = α Dt + (1 - α)Ft
where:
Ft +1 = forecast for next period
Dt = actual demand for present period
Ft = previously determined forecast for
present period
α = weighting factor, smoothing constant
EFFECT OF SMOOTHING CONSTANT
0.0 ≤ α ≤ 1.0
If α = 0.20, then Ft +1 = 0.20 Dt + 0.80 Ft
If α = 0, then Ft +1 = 0 Dt + 1 Ft 0 = Ft
Forecast does not reflect recent data
If α = 1, then Ft +1 = 1 Dt + 0 Ft = Dt
Forecast based only on most recent data
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (Α=0.30)
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND
F2 = αD1 + (1 - α)F1
1 Jan 37 = (0.30)(37) + (0.70)(37)
2 Feb 40 = 37
3 Mar 41
4 Apr 37 F3 = αD2 + (1 - α)F2
5 May 45 = (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)
6 Jun 50
= 37.9
7 Jul 43
8 Aug 47
F13 = αD12 + (1 - α)F12
9 Sep 56
10 Oct 52 = (0.30)(54) + (0.70)(50.84)
11 Nov 55 = 51.79
12 Dec 54
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (CONT.)
FORECAST, Ft + 1
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND (α = 0.3) (α = 0.5)
1 Jan 37 – –
2 Feb 40 37.00 37.00
3 Mar 41 37.90 38.50
4 Apr 37 38.83 39.75
5 May 45 38.28 38.37
6 Jun 50 40.29 41.68
7 Jul 43 43.20 45.84
8 Aug 47 43.14 44.42
9 Sep 56 44.30 45.71
10 Oct 52 47.81 50.85
11 Nov 55 49.06 51.42
12 Dec 54 50.84 53.21
13 Jan – 51.79 53.61
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (CONT.)
70 –
60 –
Actual α = 0.50
50 –
40 –
Orders
30 – α = 0.30
20 –
10 –
0–
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Month
LINEAR TREND LINE
Σ xy - nxy
y = a + bx b =
Σ x2 - nx2
where a = y-bx
a = intercept
where
b = slope of the line
n = number of periods
x = time period
y = forecast for Σx
demand for period x x = n = mean of the x values
Σy
y = n = mean of the y values
LEAST SQUARES EXAMPLE
x(PERIOD) y(DEMAND) xy x2
1 73 37 1
2 40 80 4
3 41 123 9
4 37 148 16
5 45 225 25
6 50 300 36
7 43 301 49
8 47 376 64
9 56 504 81
10 52 520 100
11 55 605 121
12 54 648 144
78 557 3867 650
LEAST SQUARES EXAMPLE (CONT.)
78
x = = 6.5
12
557
y = = 46.42
12
∑xy - nxy 3867 - (12)(6.5)(46.42)
b = 2 = =1.72
∑x - nx2 650 - 12(6.5)2
a = y - bx
= 46.42 - (1.72)(6.5) = 35.2
Linear trend line y = 35.2 + 1.72x
Forecast for period 13 y = 35.2 + 1.72(13) = 57.56 units
70 –
60 –
Actual
50 –
Demand
40 –
20 –
10 –
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
0– 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Period
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS
Di
Seasonal factor = Si = ∑D
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT (CONT.)
DEMAND (1000’S PER QUARTER)
YEAR 1 2 3 4 Total
2002 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.545.0
2003 14.1 10.37.5 18.250.1
2004 15.3 10.68.1 19.653.6
Total 42.0 29.521.955.3148.7
D1 42.0 D3 21.9
S1 = ∑D = = 0.28 S3 = ∑D = = 0.15
148.7 148.7
D2 29.5 D4 55.3
S2 = ∑D = = 0.20 S4 = ∑D = = 0.37
148.7 148.7
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT (CONT.)
For 2005
Σ| Dt - Ft |
MAD = n
where
t = period number
Dt = demand in period t
Ft = forecast for period t
n = total number of periods
⎥ ⎥ = absolute value
MAD Example
PERIOD DEMAND, Dt Ft (α =0.3) (Dt - Ft) |Dt - Ft|
1 37 37.00 – –
2 40 37.00 3.003.00
3 41 37.90 3.103.10
4 37 38.83 -1.83 1.83
5 45 38.28 6.726.72 Σ| Dt - Ft |
6 50 40.29 9.699.69 MAD = n
7 43 43.20 -0.20 0.20
8 47 43.14 3.863.86
53.39
9 56 44.30 11.70 11.70 = 11
10 52 47.81 4.194.19
11 55 49.06 5.945.94
12 54 50.84 3.153.15
= 4.85
557 49.31 53.39