Table 4-4. Continued.

V D TYDL
Bilateral Bilateral
Exports OI OI OI OI A M VA
GDP Exchange Exchange Rate AICc
(Models) Exp GDP ER VO R A R
Rates Volatility
(k) X (p)
LAGExp_TR I(3) LGDP I(0) L_TRY_USD I(2) STD_L_TRY_USD I(0) 5 -23.95 3 8
LExp_TR I(3) LGDP I(0) L_TRY_USD I(2) STD_L_TRY_USD I(0) 5 -24.21 3 8
LRAGExp_TR I(3) LRGDP I(3) LR_TRY_USD I(1) STD_LR_TRY_USD I(0) 5 -25.57 3 8
LRExp_TR I(3) LRGDP I(3) LR_TRY_USD I(1) STD_LR_TRY_USD I(0) 5 -25.79 3 8

Table 4-5. TYDL VAR(p) Lag Length for G-3 Volatility Models.
TY
D
OI Bilateral OI VA DL
Exports OI OI Vol OI Vol M
GDP GD Exchange VJ R AICC VA
(Models) Exp ER (EUR/USD) VEU (JPY/USD) A
P Rates U (K) R
X
(p)
LAGExp_BR I(3) LGDP I(0) L_BRL_USD I(2) CV I(3) CV I(1) 5 -13.56 3 8
LAGExp_BR I(3) LGDP I(0) L_BRL_USD I(2) STD I(1) STD I(1) 5 -13.74 3 8
LExp_BR I(3) LGDP I(0) L_BRL_USD I(2) CV I(3) CV I(1) 5 -13.79 3 8
LExp_BR I(3) LGDP I(0) L_BRL_USD I(2) STD I(1) STD I(1) 5 -13.93 3 8
LRAGExp_BR I(3) LRGDP I(3) LR_BRL_USD I(2) CV_R I(2) CV_R I(1) 5 -14.56 3 8
LRAGExp_BR I(3) LRGDP I(3) LR_BRL_USD I(2) STD_R I(1) STD_R I(1) 5 -15.01 3 8
LRExp_BR I(3) LRGDP I(3) LR_BRL_USD I(2) CV_R I(2) CV_R I(1) 5 -14.77 3 8
LRExp_BR I(3) LRGDP I(3) LR_BRL_USD I(2) STD_R I(1) STD_R I(1) 5 -15.19 3 8
LAGExp_CN I(3) LGDP I(0) L_CNY_USD I(2) CV I(3) CV I(1) 5 -16.06 3 8
LAGExp_CN I(3) LGDP I(0) L_CNY_USD I(2) STD I(1) STD I(1) 5 -16.24 3 8
LExp_CN I(3) LGDP I(0) L_CNY_USD I(2) CV I(3) CV I(1) 5 -16.48 3 8
LExp_CN I(3) LGDP I(0) L_CNY_USD I(2) STD I(1) STD I(1) 5 -16.63 3 8

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