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Repairable Systems
Reliability Analysis
Repairable Systems
Reliability Analysis
A Comprehensive Framework
Rajiv Nandan Rai

Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India
Sanjay Kumar Chaturvedi

Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India
Nomesh Bolia
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi, India
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
ISBN 978-1-119-52627-8
Cover image: Stockvault.Com

Cover design by Russell Richardson
Set in size of 11pt and Minion Pro by Manila Typesetting Company, Makati, Philippines
Printed in the USA
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
Series Editor Preface ix

Preface xi
List of Tables xv
List of Figures xix
1 Introduction to Repairable Systems 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Perfect, Minimal, and Imperfect Repairs 4
1.3 Summary 7
References 8
2 Repairable Systems Reliability Analysis: Non-Parametric 9
2.1 Introduction 9
2.2 Mean Cumulative Function 11
2.3 Construction of MCF Plot and Confidence Bounds:
Exact Age Data 14
2.3.1 MCF Construction: Exact Age Data 14
2.3.2 Confidence Bounds on MCF: Exact Age Data 20
2.3.3 Construction of MCF Plot and Confidence Bounds:
Grouped Data 22
2.3.4 Confidence Bounds on MCF: Grouped Data 22
2.4 Case Study: ROV System 23
2.5 Interval Age Analysis 27
2.5.1 MCF With All Types of Failure Modes Combined 27
2.5.2 MCF for Individual Failure Modes 33
2.5.3 Exact Age Analysis 33
2.6 Summary and Conclusion 40
References 41
v
vi Contents
3 Repairable Systems Reliability Analysis: Parametric 43

3.1 Introduction 43
3.2 Basic Terminologies 43
3.3 Parametric Analysis Approaches 46
3.3.1 Renewal Process 46
3.3.2 Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) 47
3.3.3 Generalized Renewal Process (GRP) 54
3.3.3.1 ARA Models 54
3.3.3.2 Kijima-I Model 56
3.3.3.3 Kijima-II Model 63
3.3.3.4 Virtual Age–Based Reliability Metrics 72
3.3.4 Summary 77
References 78
Further Reading 79
ARI Models 79
4 Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Repairable Systems 83
4.1 Introduction 83
4.2 Mann’s Test for the Weibull Distribution 84
4.3 Laplace Trend Test 86
4.4 GOF Models for Power Law Process 87
4.4.1 Crow/AMSAA Test 87
4.4.2 Common Beta Hypothesis (CBH) Tests 88
4.4.3 CVM Test 90
4.5 GOF Model for GRP Based on Kijima-I Model 92
4.6 Summary 94
References 95
5 Maintenance Modeling in Repairable Systems 97
5.1 Introduction to Maintenance Policies Using Kijima
Virtual Age Model 97
5.2 Need for HFRC Threshold 98
5.3 Reliability-Based Methodology for Optimal Maintenance
Policies in MA 100
5.3.1 Reliability-Based Threshold Model for HFRC 100
5.3.1.1 Review of Present Maintenance Policy for
HFRCs 102
5.4 Availability-Based HFRC Analysis 107
5.4.1 Availability-Based Criteria for HFRC (BB Approach) 107
5.4.1.1 Review of Overhaul Cycle (BB Approach) 109
5.4.2 Availability-Based HFRC Threshold Model
Considering FMs 112
Contents vii
5.4.2.1 Maintenance Strategy for HFRCs With FM

Approach 115
5.4.2.2 TBO Model Considering FMs 115
5.5 Summary 120
References 122
6 FMEA for Repairable Systems Based on Repair
Effectiveness Index 125
6.1 Introduction 125
6.2 A Brief Overview on Performing FMEA 128
6.2.1 System Definition 129
6.2.2 Identification of Failure Modes 129
6.2.3 Determination of Cause 130
6.2.4 Assessment of Effect 130
6.2.5 Classification of Severity (S) 131
6.2.6 Estimation of Probability of Occurrence (O) 131
6.2.7 Detection 132
6.2.8 Computation of Conventional RPN 132
6.2.9 Determination of Corrective Action 132
6.3 Estimating RPNs Through the Modified Approach [15] 133
6.4 Corrective Actions 135
6.5 Summary 140
References 140
7 An Integrated Approach to Weapon Procurement Systems 143
7.2 Analytic Network Process Model 147
7.3 AP Index and AP Value Estimation 151
7.3.1 Analytic Hierarchy Process Model 151
7.3.2 AP Index Estimation 151
7.3.3 Sample AP Index Estimation 152
7.3.4 AP Value Estimation 154
7.4 Formation of an ACU 160
7.4.1 Attack Model 160
7.4.2 Defense Model 161
7.4.3 Illustrative Example 162
7.5 Summary 164
References 166
8 Throughput Analysis of the Overhaul Line of a Repair Depot 169
8.2 Basic Definitions, Parameters, and Relationships 173
viii Contents
8.3 Variability 174

8.3.1 Measures and Classes of Variability 174
8.3.2 Causes of Variability 175
8.3.3 Variability from Preemptive Outages (Breakdowns) 175
8.3.4 Variability in Flows 176
8.3.5 Variability Interactions Queuing 177
8.3.5.1 The M/M/1 Queue 177
8.3.5.2 The G/G/1 Queue 178
8.4 Process Batching 178
8.5 System Flow and Parameters 179
8.6 System Analysis and Discussion 181
8.6.1 Component 1: LPCR Blades 181
8.6.2 Component 2: CCOC 188
8.6.3 Component 3: LPTR Blades 190
8.7 Summary 192
References 193
Appendix A 195
The Saaty Rating Scale 195
Pairwise Comparisons and Estimation of Weights for ANP 196
Appendix B 257
Unweighted Super-Matrix (Part 1) 258
Unweighted Super-Matrix (Part 2) 265
Weighted Super-Matrix (Part 1) 273
Weighted Super-Matrix (Part 2) 280
Limit Super-Matrix (Part 1) 288
Limit Super-Matrix (Part 2) 295
Appendix C 303
Pairwise Comparisons and Estimation of Weights for AHP 304
Appendix D 339
F Distribution Table 339
Appendix E 347
Normal Distribution Table 347
Appendix F 353
Chi Square Table 353
Appendix G 363
Critical Values for Cramér-von Mises Test 363
Index 365
Series Editor Preface
This is the 10th book in the series on performability engineering since

the series was launched in 2014. The subject of this book is special as not
many books on Repairable System Reliability are available in the literature
on reliability engineering. All the three authors of this book come from
the reputed academic institutes of technology in India, but have also have
had rich experience of working on field projects of practical importance.
Incidentally, the two of the authors, namely, Rajiv Nandan Rai and Sanjay
Kumar Chaturvedi are the postgraduate and doctorate, respectively, of the
first Centre of Reliability Engineering established in India by the series
Editor in 1983 at the Indian institute of Technology, at Kharagpur. Rajiv
Nandan Rai has also served with the Indian Air Force and has had about
20 years of industrial experience in military aviation, which is reflected in
the treatment of the subject.
Actually, the research in repairable systems reliability is limited and very
few textbooks are available on the subject. The available textbooks gener-
ally provide coverage of non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) where
the repair effectiveness index (REI) is considered one. Few more textbooks
provide treatment of non-parametric reliability analysis of repairable sys-
tems. However, this book aims to provide a comprehensive framework for
the analysis of repairable systems considering both the non-parametric
and parametric estimation of the failure data. The book also provides dis-
cussion of generalized renewal process (GRP) based arithmetic reduction
of age (ARA) models along with its applications to repairable systems data
from aviation industry.
Repair actions in military aviation may not fall under ‘as good as new
(AGAN)’ and ‘as bad as old (ABAO)’ assumptions which often find lim-
ited uses in practical applications. But actual situation could lie somewhere
between the two. A repairable system may end up in one of the five likely
states subsequent to a repair: (i) as good as new, (ii) as bad as old, (iii) better
than old but worse than new, (iv) better than new, and lastly, (v) worse than
old. Existing probabilistic models used in repairable system analysis, such
ix
x Series Editor Preface
as the perfect renewal process (PRP) and the non-homogeneous Poisson

process (NHPP), account for the first two states. In the concept of imper-
fect repair, the repair actions are unable to bring the system to as good as
new state, but can transit to a stage that is somewhere between new and
that of one preceding to a failure. Because of the requirement to have more
precise analyses and predictions, the GRP can be of great interest to reduce
the modelling ambiguity resulting from the above repair assumptions. The
authors have discussed to a great extent various possibilities under repair-
ability environment and applied them to physical systems. The book also
summarizes the models and approaches available in the literature on the
analysis of repairable system reliability.
It is expected the book will be very useful to all those who are designing
or maintaining repairable systems.
Krishna B. Misra
Series Editor
Preface
Conventionally, a repair action usually is assumed to renew a system to its

“as good as new” condition. This assumption is very unrealistic for proba-
bilistic modeling and leads to major distortions in statistical analysis. Most
of the reliability literature is directed toward non-repairable systems, that
is, systems that fail are discarded. This book is mainly dedicated toward
providing coverage to the reliability modeling and analysis of repairable
systems that are repaired and not replaced when they fail.
During his journey in the military organization, the first author real-
ized that most of the industries desire to equip its scientists, engineers, and
managers with the knowledge of reliability concepts and applications but
have not been able to succeed completely. Repairable systems reliability
analysis is an area where the research work is quite limited and very few
text books are available. The available text books are also limited in provid-
ing a coverage only up to the concepts of non-homogeneous Poisson pro-
cess (NHPP) where the repair effectiveness index (REI) is considered one.
Few more textbooks provide knowledge only on non-parametric reliability
analysis on repairable systems.
This book provides a comprehensive framework for the modeling and
analysis of repairable systems considering both the non-parametric and
parametric estimation of the failure data. The book provides due expo-
sure to the generalized renewal process (GRP)–based arithmetic reduc-
tion of age (ARA) models along with its applications to repairable systems
data from aviation industry. The book also covers various multi-criteria
decision making (MCDM) techniques, integrated with repairable systems
reliability analysis models to provide a much better insight into imperfect
repair and maintenance data analysis. A complete chapter on an integrated
framework for procurement process is added which will of a great assis-
tance to the readers in enhancing the potential of their respective orga-
nization. It is intended to be useful for senior undergraduate, graduate,
and post-graduate students in engineering schools as also for professional
engineers, reliability administrators, and managers.
xi
xii Preface
This book has primarily emerged from the industrial experience and
research work of the authors. A number of illustrations have been included
to make the subject pellucid and vivid even to the readers who are new to
this area. Besides, various examples have been provided to showcase the
applicability of presented models and methodologies, besides, to assist the
readers in applying the concepts presented in the book.
The concepts of random variable and commonly used discrete and con-
tinuous probability distributions can readily be seen in various available
texts that deal with reliability analysis of non-reparable systems. The reli-
ability literature is in plenty to cover such aspects in reliability data anal-
ysis where the failure times are modeled by appropriate life distributions.
Hence, the readers are advised to refer to any such text book on non-
repairable systems reliability analysis for a better comprehension of this
book.
Chapter 1 presents various terminologies pertaining to repairable sys-
tems followed by the description of repair concepts and repair categories.
The mean cumulative function (MCF)–based graphical and non-
parametric methods for reparable systems are simple yet powerful option
available to analyze the fleet/system events recurrence behavior and their
recurrence rate. Chapter 2 is dedicated to MCF-based non-parametric
analysis through examples with a case study of remotely operated vehicle
(ROV).
The renewal and homogeneous Poisson processes (HPPs) followed by
an exhaustive description of NHPP are covered in Chapter 3 along with
solved examples. Thereafter, the chapter brings out a detailed description
of ARA and ARI models along with their applicability in maintenance.
The chapter also derives the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for
Kijima virtual age models with the help of GRP. The models are demon-
strated with the help of suitable examples.
Chapter 4 provides various goodness-of-fit (GOF) tests for repairable
systems and their applications with examples.
Chapter 5 presents various reliability and availability-based maintenance
models for repairable systems. This chapter introduces the concept of high
failure rate component (HFRC)–based thresholds and provides maintenance
models by considering the “Black Box” (BB) approach followed by the failure
mode (FM) approach. All the models are well-supported with examples.
This book presents modified failure modes and analysis (FMEA) model
in Chapter 6. This model is based on the concept of REI propounded by
Kijima and is best applicable to the repairable systems reliability analysis.
Chapter 7 provides an integrated approach for weapon procurement
systems for military aviation. The combined applications of MCDM tools
Preface xiii
like AHP, ANP, and optimization techniques can be seen in this chapter.
This model can be used for other industries procurement policy as well.
Chapter 8 is aimed at reducing the overhaul time of a repairable equip-
ment to enhance the availability. Various concepts of throughput analysis
have been utilized in this chapter.
The book makes an honest attempt to provide a comprehensive coverage
to various models and methodologies that can be used for modeling and
analysis of repairable systems reliability analysis. However, there is always
a scope for improvement and we are looking forward to receiving critical
reviews and/or comments of the book from students, teachers, and practi-
tioners. We hope that the readers will all gain as much knowledge, under-
standing, and pleasure from reading this book as we have from writing it.
Rajiv Nandan Rai

Sanjay Kumar Chaturvedi
Nomesh Bolia
August 2020
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Rotating machine failure data of Example 2.2 16

Table 2.2 MCF and confidence calculations 17
Table 2.3 Example 2.3—Burn-in period determination 19
Table 2.4 Data for Example 2.4 24
Table 2.5 List of failure categories and counts for all 53 ROVs 28
Table 2.6 Failure Counts in Months Corresponding their
Failure Modes 29
Table 2.7 MCF calculation by combining all failure modes 31
Table 2.8 MCF calculation for individual category at 24 months 34
Table 2.9 A sample of collected data 36
Table 2.10 Exercise 1: Failure data of three systems 39
Table 3.1 Time to failure data (hours) of aero engines of Example 3.2 52
Table 3.2 Virtual age–based reliability metrics 73
Table 3.3 Time to failure data (hours) of Example 3.4 75
Table 3.4 Time to failure data (hours) of Example 3.5 76
Table 3.5 Time between failures for a compressor 78
Table 4.1 Hypothesis tests 84
Table 5.1 Maintenance modeling in repairable systems 99
Table 5.2 Relative outcome of the two overhaul cycles 104
Table 5.3 Relative outcome of the two overhaul cycles 106
Table 5.4 Comparative results of both overhaul cycles (Variant 1) 111
xv
xvi List of Tables
Table 5.5 Comparative results of both overhaul cycles (Variant 2) 112

Table 5.6 Results-failure mode wise for first overhaul cycle 118
Table 5.7 Results-failure mode wise for t2OH 119
Table 5.8 Failure mode wise percent improvement 119
Table 5.9 Comparative results of both overhaul cycles for the
aero engine 119
Table 6.1 Extensions to standard FMEA 127
Table 6.2 Failure cause-mode effect relationship 130
Table 6.3 Severity rating 131
Table 6.4 Occurrence rating 132
Table 6.5 Failure mode wise initial RPN 135
Table 6.6 Failure mode wise values of final Q 137
Table 6.7 Final RPNs 138
Table 6.8 FM1 138
Table 6.9 FM2 138
Table 6.10 FM3 139
Table 6.11 Comparative results 139
Table 7.1 Brief literature review on WSCE using MCDM 145
Table 7.2 Weights for API 153
Table 7.3 Actual and scaled API values of each weapon category 154
Table 7.4 APV estimation of combat force “ALPHA” 156
Table 7.5 APV enhancement 159
Table 7.6 APIij values 162
Table 7.7 Cij (million USD), ai, di, and mi 163
Table 7.8 Aij values 164
Table 7.9 Optimal xij values 165
Table 8.1 Brief literature review on TH analysis 171
Table 8.2 Required TH of the three components 180
List of Tables xvii
Table 8.3 Process requirements of LPCR blades repair 180

Table 8.4 Process requirements of CCOC repair 182
Table 8.5 Process requirements of LPTR blades repair 184
Table 8.6 Component 1—LPCR blades 185
Table 8.7 Component 2—CCOC 189
Table 8.8 Component 3—LPTR blades 191
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Types of repair 5

Figure 1.2 Various techniques for reliability analysis 6
Figure 2.1 A MCF example 11
Figure 2.2 An improving system 12
Figure 2.3 A stable system 13
Figure 2.4 A deteriorating system 13
Figure 2.5 History and distribution of failures observed at age t 14
Figure 2.6 MCF plot of Example 2.2 17
Figure 2.7 Graphical plots of Example 2.3 20
Figure 2.8 MCF with confidence bounds of Example 2.2 data 21
Figure 2.9 MCF plot of Example 2.4 26
Figure 2.10 A ROV. (Image taken from: https://www.pinterest.com/
pin/55267618549 5210644/?nic=1) 26
Figure 2.11 MCF by combining all failure modes 33
Figure 2.12 Event plot for each system 34
Figure 2.13 MCF plot of each system 35
Figure 2.14 Grouping of systems based on performance behavior 35
Figure 2.15 Event plot of all three groups 38
Figure 2.16 MCF plot of all three groups 39
Figure 3.1 Bathtub-shaped intensity function 46
Figure 3.2 Conditional probability of occurrence of failures 48
xix
xx List of Figures
Figure 3.3 Photograph of an aero engine 51

Figure 3.4 Intensity function plot for Example 3.1 52
Figure 3.7 Availability plot for Example 3.3 75
Figure 5.1 Reliability-based HFRC threshold 102
Figure 5.2 Availability-based threshold for HFRC 108
Figure 5.3 Flying task vs. availability 109
Figure 6.1 q vs. F(vi | vi–1) for FM1 136
Figure 7.1 Overview of the approach 144
Figure 7.2 Evaluation of alternatives through ANP 148
Figure 7.3 Evaluation of APE through AHP 152
Figure 8.1 Overview of Chapter 8 170
Figure 8.2 Propagation of variability between workstations in series 177
Figure 8.3 Work flow/work stations for engine overhaul line 179
Figure 8.4 Work flow/work stations for LPCR blades 180
Figure 8.5 Work flow/work stations for CCOC 181
Figure 8.6 Work flow/work stations for LPTR blades repair 184
1
Introduction to Repairable Systems
1.1 Introduction
A system is a collection of mutually related items, assembled to perform
one or more intended functions. Any system majorly consists of (i) items
as the operating parts, (ii) attributes as the properties of items, and (iii)
the link between items and attributes as interrelationships. A system is
not only expected to perform its specified function(s) under its operating
conditions and constraints but also expected to meet specified require-
ments, referred as performance and attributes. The system exhibits certain
behavioural pattern that can never ever be exhibited by any of its constit-
uent items or their subsets. The items of a system may themselves be sys-
tems, and every system may be part of a larger system in a hierarchy. Each
system has a purpose for which items, attributes, and relationships have
been organized. Everything else that remains outside the boundaries of
system is considered as environment from where a system receives input
(in the form of material, energy, and/or information) and makes output
to the environment which might be in different form as that of the input
it had received. Internally, the items communicate through input and
output wherein output(s) of one items(s) becomes the input(s) to others.
The inherent ability of an item/system to perform required function(s)
with specified performance and attributes when it is utilized as specified
is known as functionability [1]. This definition differentiates between the
terms functionality and functionability where former is purely related to
the function performed whereas latter also takes into considerations the
level of performance achieved.
Despite the system is functionable at the beginning of its operational life,
we are fully aware that even after using the perfect design, best technology
available for its production or the materials from which it is made, certain
irreversible changes are bound to occur due to the actions of various inter-
acting and superimposing processes, such as corrosion, deformations, dis-
tortions, overheating, fatigue, or similar. These interacting processes are the
Rajiv Nandan Rai, Sanjay Kumar Chaturvedi and Nomesh Bolia. Repairable Systems Reliability
Analysis: A Comprehensive Framework, (1–8) © 2020 Scrivener Publishing LLC
1
2 Repairable Systems Reliability Analysis
main reason behind the change in the output characteristics of the system.
The deviation of these characteristics from the specifications constitutes a
failure. The failure of a system, therefore, can be defined as an event whose
occurrence results in either loss of ability to perform required function(s) or
loss of ability to satisfy the specified requirements (i.e., performance and/or
attributes). Regardless of the reason of occurrence of this change, a failure
causes system to transit from a state of functioning to a state of failure or state
of unacceptable performance. For many systems, a transition to the unsat-
isfactory or failure state means retirement. Engineering systems of this type
are known as non-maintained or non-reparable system because it is impos-
sible to restore their functionability within reasonable time, means, and
resources. For example, a missile is a non-repairable system once launched.
Other examples of non-repairable systems include electric bulbs, batteries,
transistors, etc. However, there are a large number of systems whose func-
tionability can be restored by effecting certain specified tasks known as
maintenance tasks. These tasks can be as complex as necessitating a complete
overhaul or as simple as just cleaning, replacement, or adjustment. One can
cite several examples of repairable systems one’s own day-to-day interactions
with such systems that include but not limited to automobiles, computers,
aircrafts, industrial machineries, etc. For instance, a laptop, not connected
to an electrical power supply, may fail to start if its battery is dead. In this
case, replacing the battery—a non-maintained item—with a new one may
solve the problem. A television set is another example of a repairable sys-
tem, which upon failure can be restored to satisfactory condition by simply
replacing either the failed resistor or transistor or even a circuit board if that
is the cause, or by adjusting the sweep or synchronization settings.
The system, in fact, wavers and stays between satisfactory and unsatis-
factory states during its operational life until a decision is taken to dispense
with it. The proportion of the time, during which the system is function-
able, depends on the interaction between the inherent characteristics of a
system from the design and utilization function given by the users’ specific
requirements and actions. The prominent inherent characteristics could
be reliability, maintainability, and supportability. Note that these charac-
teristics are directly related to the frequency of failures, the complexity of a
maintenance task, and ease to support that task. The utilization character-
istics are driven by the users’ operational scenarios and maintenance pol-
icy adopted, which are further supported by the logistics functions, which
is related to the provisioning of operational and maintenance resources
needed. In short, the pattern followed by an engineering system can be
termed as funtionability profile whose specific shape is governed by the
inherent characteristics of design and system’s utilization. The metric
Introduction to Repairable Systems 3
Availability or its variants quantitatively summarize the functionability

profile of an item/system. It is an extremely important and useful measure
for reparable systems; besides, a technical aid in the cases where user is to
make decisions regarding the acquisition of one item among several com-
peting possibilities with differing values of reliability, maintainability, and
supportability. Functionability and availability brought together indicates
how good a system is. It is referred as system technical effectiveness repre-
senting the inherent capability of the system. Clearly, the biggest opportu-
nity to make an impact on systems’ characteristics is at the design stage to
won or lost the battle when changes and modifications are possible almost
at negligible efforts. Therefore, the biggest challenge for engineers, scien-
tists, and researchers has been to assess the impact of the design on the
maintenance process at the earliest stage of the design through field expe-
riences, analysis, planning and management. And, the repairable system
analysis is not just constricted on finding out the reliability metrics.
Most complex systems, such as automobiles, communication systems,
aircraft, engine controllers, printers, medical diagnostics systems, helicop-
ters, train locomotives, and so on so forth are repaired once they fail. In
fact, when a system enters into utilization process, it is exposed to three dif-
ferent performance influencing factors, viz., operation, maintenance, and
logistics, which should be strategically managed in accordance with the
business plans of the owners. It is often of considerable interest to deter-
mine the reliability and other performance characteristics under these
conditions. Areas of interest may include assessing the expected number of
failures during the warranty period, maintaining a minimum reliability for
an interval, addressing the rate of wear out, determining when to replace
or overhaul a system, and minimizing its life cycle costs.
Traditional reliability life or accelerated test data analysis—nonpara-
metric or parametric—is based on a truly random sample drawn from
a single population and independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)
assumptions on the reliability data obtained from the testing/fielded units.
This i.i.d. assumption may also be valid, intuitively, on the first failure of
several identical units, coming from the same design and manufacturing
process, fielded in a specified or assumed to be in an identical environ-
ment. Life data of such items usually consists of an item’s single failure (or
very first failure for reparable items) times with some items may be still
surviving-referred as censoring or suspension. The reliability literature is
in plenty to cover such aspects in reliability data analysis where the failure
times are modeled by appropriate life distributions [2].
However, in repairable system, one generally has times of successive
failures of a single system, often violating the i.i.d assumption. Hence, it is
not surprising that statistical methods required for repairable system differ
from those needed in reliability analysis of non-repairable items. In order to
address the reliability characteristics of complex repairable systems, a process
rather than a distribution is often used. For a repairable system, time to next
failure depends on both the life distribution (the probability distribution of
the time to first failure) and the impact of maintenance actions performed
after the first occurrence of a failure. The most popular process model is the
Power Law Process (PLP). This model is popular for several reasons. For
instance, it has a very practical foundation in terms of minimal repair—a
situation when the repair of a failed system is just enough to get the system
operational again by repair or replacement of its constituent item(s). Second,
if the time to first failure follows the Weibull distribution, then the Power
Law model repair governs each succeeding failure and adequately models
the minimal repair phenomenon. In other words, the Weibull distribution
addresses the very first failure and the PLP addresses each succeeding failure
for a repairable system. From this viewpoint, the PLP can be regarded as an
extension of the Weibull distribution and a generalization of Poisson process.
Besides, the PLP is generally computationally easy in providing useful and
practical solutions, which have been usually comprehended and accepted by
the management for many real-world applications.
The usual notion and assumption of overhauling of a system is to bring-
ing it back to “as-good-as-new” (AGAN) condition. This notion may not
be true in practice and an overhaul may not achieve the system reliability
back to where it was when the system was new. However, there is con-
currence among all the stakeholders that an overhaul indeed makes the
system more reliable than just before its overhaul. For systems that are not
overhauled, there is only one cycle and we are interested in the reliability
characteristics of such systems as the system ages during its operational
life. For systems that are overhauled several times during their lifetime, our
interest would be in the reliability characteristics of the system as it ages
during its cycles, i.e., the age of the system starts from the beginning of the
cycle and each cycle starts with a new zero time.
1.2 Perfect, Minimal, and Imperfect Repairs

As discussed earlier, a repairable system is a system that is restored to its
functionable state after the loss of functionability by the actions other than
replacement of the entire system. The quantum of repair depends upon var-
ious factors like criticality of the component failed, operational status of the
system, risk index, etc. Accordingly, the management takes a decision on
how much repair a system has to undergo. The two extremes of the repair
are perfect and minimal repairs. A system is said to be perfectly repaired, if
the system is restored to AGAN condition (as it is replaced with a new one).
Normally, a perfect repair in terms of the replacement is carried out for very
critical components, which may compromise operation ability, safety of the
system, and/or personnel working with the system. On the other hand, a
system is said to be minimally repaired, if its working state is restored to
“as-bad-as-old” (ABAO). This type of repair is undertaken when there is
heavy demand for the system to work for a finite time or the system will be
undergoing preventive maintenance shortly or will be scrapped soon.
Any repair other than perfect and minimal repair comes under imper-
fect repair. Most of the repairs observed in day-to-day systems are imper-
fect repairs, i.e., a system is neither restored to AGAN conditions nor to
ABAO conditions. The three types of repairs are pictorially represented in
Figure 1.1.
Perfect repair
1
Degradation
0.5
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Time
Minimal repair
1
Degradation
0.5
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Time
General repair
1
Degradation
0.5
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Time
Figure 1.1 Types of repair.

It can be seen from Figure 1.1 that in case of perfect repair, the system
is rendered “AGAN” and the life starts at zero in the time scale signifying
that the performance degradation is completely restored. In case of mini-
mal repair, after the system is subjected to a repair action, its age remains
same as before the repair action and there is no restoration of life below
the previous age. So far the general repair is concerned, some of its life is
renewed and the system starts functioning after being restored to some-
where between “ABAO” and “AGAN” state.
Figure 1.2 summarizes the techniques in vogue for reliability analysis
for both repairable and non-repairable items, respectively.
Failure Data
Analysis
Live Data Analysis Recurrent Event Data Analysis

(For Non-Repairable Items) (For repairable Items)
Non- Non-Parametric Parametric

Parametric Parametric Analysis
Analysis
Analysis Distributional
Analysis
Kaplan-Meier Normal Mean Perfect Renewal

Estimator Distribution Cumulative Process (PRP)
Function (MCF)
Median Rank Exponential

Estimator Distribution General Renewal
Process (GRP)
Weibull
Distribution
Non-Homogenous
Poisson Process
(NHPP)
Other
Distribution
Figure 1.2 Various techniques for reliability analysis.

A renewal process (RP) is a counting process where the inter-occurrence

times are stochastically i.i.d. with an arbitrary life distribution. Under the
RP, a single distribution can characterize the time between failures (TBF),
and the frequency of repair appears constant. The non-renewal behav-
ior occurs if this frequency of repairs increases (deteriorating systems)
or decreases (system improving) influencing the corresponding mainte-
nance costs. The homogeneous Poisson process (HPP) describes a sequence
of statistically i.i.d. exponential random variables. Conversely, a non-
homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) [3, 4] describes a sequence of ran-
dom variables that are neither statistically independent nor identically
distributed. The NHPP is often used to model repairable systems that are
subject to minimal repair. The generalized renewal process (GRP) allows
the goodness of repairs within two extremities, viz., AGAN repair (RP) to
the same-as-old repair (NHPP). The GRP is particularly useful in model-
ing the failure behavior of a specific unit and understanding the effects of
repair actions on the age of that system. An example of a system to which
the GRP is especially applicable is a system, which is repaired after a fail-
ure and whose repair neither brings the system to an AGAN or an ABAO
condition, but instead partially rejuvenates the system. Therefore, one
should be cautious on the fact that without looking at the actual behavior
of the data may lead to underestimation or overestimation of engineering
metrics.
The analysis by employing the parametric methods on scenarios of
failure-repair requires a certain degree of statistical knowledge, the abil-
ity to solve complex equations and verification of distributional assump-
tions. Further, these equations cannot be solved analytically and require
an iterative procedure or special software. Besides, parametric approaches
are computationally intensive and not intuitive to a novice or an average
person. The analysis of events, irrespective of the nature of the system-
reparable or not reparable, should take an analysis path from non-
parametric to versatile parametric model with graphical analysis being a
common denominator. Undoubtedly, the choice of method depends on
the data available and the questions we wish to answer.
1.3 Summary
A repairable system is a system that is restored to its functionable state
after the loss of functionability by the actions other than replacement of
the entire system. The two extremes of the repair are perfect and minimal
repairs. A system is said to be perfectly repaired, if the system is restored
to AGAN condition (as it is replaced with a new one). On the other hand,
a system is said to be minimally repaired, if its working state is restored
to ABAO. Any repair other than perfect and minimal repair comes under
imperfect repair. Most of the repairs observed in day-to-day systems are
imperfect repairs, i.e., a system is neither restored to AGAN conditions
nor to ABAO conditions. The RP is used to model AGAN condition. The
NHPP is often used to model repairable systems that are subject to mini-
mal repair. The GRP allows the goodness of repairs within two extremities,
viz., AGAN repair (RP) to the same-as-old repair (NHPP).
The next chapter describes the mean cumulative function (MCF) based
graphical and non-parametric methods for repairable systems.
References
1. Knezevic, J., Systems Maintainability, Analysis, Engineering and Management,
Chapman and Hall, London, 1997.
2. Ebeling, C.E., An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering,
McGraw Hill, New York, 2007.
3. Rigdon, S.E. and Basu, A.P., Statistical Methods for the Reliability of Repairable
Systems, Wiley, New York, 2000.
4. Ascher, H. and Feingold, H., Repairable Systems Reliability, Marcel Dekker,
New York, 1984.
2
Repairable Systems Reliability
Analysis: Non-Parametric
2.1 Introduction
Many products experience repeated repairs that requires special statistical
treatment with respect to formulating methods and models for analysis.
The items are usually considered statistically independent, but the times
between the occurrences of failure or repair events within a system unit
are neither necessarily independent nor identically distributed. The data
are usually censored in the sense that system units have different ends
of operational histories. A distributional analysis might also be possible
for the systems’ which undergo a series of failure/repair cycles, on their
very first observed failure or if their times-between-failures (TBF) show
no trends. However, if a series of multiple failure or repair events, occur-
ring sequentially in time continuum, are to be considered for analysis then
order of the failure event’s occurrence does matter and ignorance would
lead to incorrect analysis and decisions thereof [1, 2]. Since the collec-
tion of random variables involved in such systems evolve with time, their
behavior is generally modeled through a process rather than a distribution.
In reliability engineering, the systems under this category are commonly
referred as repairable systems, i.e., systems that are brought to their normal
functionable states by means of any minor or major maintenance action(s).
Therefore, when assessing and analyzing the system reliability, it is always
important to make the distinction between non-repairable components
and repairable systems to select an appropriate approach.
For a company or for a competing manufacturer, the common concerns
can be [3, 4]:
• The number of repairs, on average, for all system at a speci-

fied operational time?
• Expected time to first repair, subsequent repairs, etc.
Rajiv Nandan Rai, Sanjay Kumar Chaturvedi and Nomesh Bolia. Repairable Systems Reliability
Analysis: A Comprehensive Framework, (9–42) © 2020 Scrivener Publishing LLC
9
• Trends in repair rate or costs whether increasing, decreas-

ing, or substantially constant.
• How to take decisions on burn-in requirements and mainte-
nance or retirement.
• Is burn-in would be beneficial? How long and costs effective
it would be?
• How to compare different versions, designs, or perfor-
mance of systems operating in different environment/
regions, etc.
Each of the above questions and many more can be answered by the
method presented in this chapter. This chapter describes mean cumula-
tive function (MCF) based non-parametric graphical approach—a sim-
ple yet powerful and informative model—to deal with failure events of
systems undergoing a failure and repair cycles wherein the time to effect
a repair is assumed to be negligible. This is a reasonable assumption with
respect to the operational times of a unit that are usually long than its
repair times.
The MCF approach is simple as it is easy to understand, prepare, and
present the data. The MCF model is non-parametric in the sense that its
estimation involves no assumptions about the form of the mean function
or the process generating the system histories. Further, this graphical
method allows the monitoring of system recurrences and the mainte-
nance of statistical rigidity without resorting to complex stochastic
techniques.
Further, the non-parametric MCF analysis provides similar infor-
mation as probability plots in a traditional life data analysis. Especially,
the plot of the nonparametric estimate of the population MCF yields
most of the information sought and the plot is as informative as is the
probability plot for life and other univariate data. The sample MCF can
be estimated and plot can be constructed for just one single machine
or for an entire fleet of machines in a population. Besides, it can also
be constructed for all failures events, outages, system failures due to
specific failure modes, etc. It can be used to track field recurrences and
identify recurrence trends, anomalous systems, unusual behavior, the
effect of various parameters (e.g., maintenance policies, environmental,
and operating conditions, etc.) on failures, etc. For some situations, this
is the only analysis we need to do, and in others, it becomes a precursor
to a more advance parametric form of analysis.
Non-Parametric Reliability Analysis 11
2.2 Mean Cumulative Function

A common and popular reliability metric of a repairable system is the
cumulative number of failure or repair events, N(t), occurring by time t
(also termed as system age). Here, age (or time) means any measure of
item’s usage, e.g., millage, kilometers, cycles, months, days, and so on. An
item’s latest observed age is called its suspension or censored age beyond
which its history is yet to be observed. A sample item may also not have
observed a single failure whereas others have observed one, two, or more
failures before its suspension age. Obviously, the number of events occur-
ring by time is random. In non-parametric failure (or repair) events data
analysis, every unit of the population can be described by a cumulative
history function for the number of failures. The population average of
cumulative number of failures (or repairs) at through time t is called Mean
dM (t )
Cumulative Function (MCF), M(t)(= E(N(t))). Its derivative, m(t ) = ,
dt
is assumed to exist and is termed as recurrence rate or intensity function
or population instantaneous repair rate at time t. This rate may remain
constant, increasing or decreasing in its characteristics and is expressed in
terms of occurrences per unit population item per unit time. It is a stair-
case function with a jump at each event occurrence in time and tracking
the accumulated number of events by time t of interest. It is the mean of all
staircase functions of every unit in the population.
Figure 2.1 shows an example of the cumulative history function for a
single system. The graph on cumulative number of failure events versus
MCF Plot
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
MCF
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
t, in hours
Figure 2.1 A MCF example.

the system age, t. This graph can be viewed as a single observation from a
possible curve.
Let us take an example to illustrate the behavior of three units of identi-
cally designed systems operating under different environments or mainte-
nance scenarios through MCF.
Example 2.1
Consider of three reparable systems observed until the time of their 12th
failure the failure data [5].
System 1: 3, 9, 20, 25, 41, 50, 69, 91, 128, 151, 182, and 227.
System 2: 9, 20, 65, 88, 104, 107, 138, 143, 149, 186, 208, and 227.
System 3: 45, 76, 113, 129, 152, 174, 193, 199, 210, 219, 224, and
227.
Figures 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4, respectively, show the graphs of N(ti)
versus ti.
It is evident from the plots in Figures 2.2 to 2.4 that the three iden-
tical systems are behaving differently wherein the repair rates of these
systems show decreasing (an improving system), linear (a stable system),
and increasing (a deteriorating system) trends, respectively. In the above,
the actual number of events by time t provides an unbiased estimate of
the population mean number of failures (or repairs) per system, M(t).
This is valid in a situation where only a single system is available at the
time of analysis and other systems would appear in future when this sin-
gle system’s design is acceptable and satisfied the intended requirements.
However, in many cases, we are concerned with an overall behavior and
performance of several systems manufactured through identical processes
System 1
14
Cumulative number of failures
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 50 100 150 200 150
Time in hours
Figure 2.2 An improving system.

System 2
14
Cumulative Numbers of Failures
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
t, in hours
Figure 2.3 A stable system.
System 3
14
Cumulative Numbers of Failures
12
10
8
4
2
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
t, in hours
Figure 2.4 A deteriorating system.
and sub items. Even the deployment time of these systems differ and they
will have differing failure histories and operating times. Figure 2.5 shows
an example of the MCF of a sample of a fleet of randomly selected similar
repairable systems from a population.
Note that the intersection of the staircase functions with the vertical line
passing through an age ti creates a distribution for the values of cumulative
number of events, wherein a fraction of the population has accumulated
no failure, another fraction has accumulated one failure, yet another frac-
tion has accumulated two failures, and so on. This distribution differs at
different ages and has a mean MCF(ti) at age ti. Thus, the MCF plot is a
pointwise average of all population curves passing through the vertical line
at each age ti as can be seen in Figure 2.5.
14
12
10
8
Cumulative
Number of
Failures
6
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Age
Figure 2.5 History and distribution of failures observed at age t.
Apart from the above type of failure histories, there may exist the
data in plenty or in a manner wherein the grouping of the data is viable
enough. It is a usually a standard practice of resorting to grouping the
data when the sample size is large enough as no significant information
is lost in statistical sense if the data is grouped into different intervals—
equal or unequal. We will consider both form of data and their subse-
quent analysis approach later in detail. Let us describe procedural steps
of MCF construction [4].
2.3 Construction of MCF Plot and Confidence

Bounds: Exact Age Data
2.3.1 MCF Construction: Exact Age Data
The sample MCF can be estimated and its plot can be constructed in a very
straightforward manner by following these three simple steps:
1. Rank order all failure and censored times, i.e., sorted from
shortest to longest by pooling the failure history of n number
of randomly selected systems drawn from a population of

such systems. If a failure time for a unit is the same as its
censoring time, the failure time is ordered first. In case of
multiple units have a common recurrence or censoring age,
then follow an arbitrary order.
2. Calculate the number of units, ri, that have observed life ti
just prior to the occurrence of failure event or number of
units after the suspensions occur, i.e.,
ri 1, if t i is the age of event recurrence

ri ri 1, if t i is the age of a su
uspension,
with r0 n at the first observed age
3. The MCF is calculated for each sample recurrence age ti, as
1 1
MCFi = + MCFi −1 with MCF0 =
ri r0
The above procedure is illustrated through following examples.
Example 2.2. [6]

An oil refinery company maintains a rotating machine and wants to make
projections about the expected cumulative number of failures for 100 sim-
ilar rotating machines after 4 years (equal to 35,040 hours) of operation.
Failure and suspension data, in hours, for a random sample of 22 machines
were collected. Every time a machine fails, a crew repairs the machine to
put back again in service. Table 2.1 gives the failure and censoring ages for
each machine, where + sign indicates a censored age.
The MCF estimates by following the procedural steps is given in col-
umns 4 to 6 of Table 2.2 and MCF plot is shown in Figure 2.6. The com-
putation of confidence bounds given in the last column #8 of Table 2.2 is
explained later.
Looking at MCF plot in Figure 2.6, the company can expect the number of
failures per machine after years of operation is, M(35040) = 0.3658. Therefore,
out of the 100 machines, about 37 failures are expected to occur. It can be
observed that if a smooth curve is drawn through the MCF plot, it would have
its derivative decreasing in nature, i.e., repair rate decreases as the machine
ages and it improves with use. This behavior shown can either be by a typical
Table 2.1 Rotating machine failure

data of Example 2.2.
Machine ID# ti (Hours)
1. 942,435,659+
2. 3,718,412+
3. 64,192,039,779+
4. 70,734,213+
5. 1,898,029,016+
6. 185,128,177+
7. 28,535+
8. 29,168+
9. 679,224,304+
10. 28,921+
11. 27,853+
12. 29,981+
13. 25,761+
14. 28,780+
15. 24,901+
16. 31,360+
17. 23,940+
18. 26,009+
19. 32,236+
20. 30,472+
21. 23,792+
22. 30,183+
Table 2.2 MCF and confidence calculations.

MCF(ti)
1
Machine (8)
ID# ti State ri
ri MCF(ti) Var(MCF(ti))
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) UB LB
2 37 F 22 0.0455 0.0455 0.0020 0.1590 0.0130
3 64 F 22 0.0455 0.0909 0.0039 0.2204 0.0375
4 707 F 22 0.0455 0.1364 0.0059 0.2810 0.0662
6 1,851 F 22 0.0455 0.1818 0.0079 0.3400 0.0972
3 1,920 F 22 0.0455 0.2273 0.0099 0.3979 0.1298
9 6,792 F 22 0.0455 0.2727 0.0118 0.4547 0.1636
1 9,424 F 22 0.0455 0.3182 0.0138 0.5107 0.1982
2 18,412 S 21
5 18,980 F 21 0.0476 0.3658 0.0160 0.5695 0.2350
21 23,792 S 20 0.4
0.35
17 23,940 S 19 0.3
0.25
9 24,304 S 18
MCF
0.2
0.15
15 24,901 S 17 0.1
0.05
13 25,761 S 16
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
18 26,009 S 15 t, in hours
11 27,853 S 14 Figure 2.6 MCF plot of Example 2.2.

6 28,177 S 13
7 28,535 S 12
14 28,780 S 11
10 28,921 S 10
5 29,016 S 9
(Continued)
Table 2.2 MCF and confidence calculations. (Continued)

MCF(ti)
1
Machine (8)
ID# ti State ri
ri MCF(ti) Var(MCF(ti))
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) UB LB
8 29,168 S 8
12 29,981 S 7
22 30,183 S 6
20 30,472 S 5
16 31,360 S 4
19 32,236 S 3
4 34,213 S 2
1 35,659 S 1
3 39,779 S 0
product with manufacturing defects corrected gradually or the effectiveness of

the maintenance activity or improved learning curve of the operator.
Example 2.3. [6]

An electronics company subjects its products to a burn-in1 program to reduce
the occurrences for failures and the need for repairs in the field. Every pro-
duced unit is run, repaired upon failure and placed back into the test until the
population’s (instantaneous) recurrence rate decreases to a desired value mgoal.
What would be the an appropriate burn-in period tb that would achieve the
recurrence rate to a desired value, mgoal, equal to 1 failure per 50,000 cycles?
The collected recurrent failures data and the sample MCF are shown in
dM (t )
Table 2.3. Recall that the derivative, m(t ) = , is termed as recurrence
dt
rate or intensity function or population instantaneous repair rate at time t.
Therefore, tb can be estimated from the sample MCF by moving a straight
line with slope mgoal, until it becomes tangent to the smoothed MCF plot.
The corresponding age at the tangent point determines the appropriate
burn-in period. It can be done manually by fitting a smoothed curve and
finding the points where its slope becomes 1/50,000.
1
This type of burn-in program is different from many burn-in programs in which failed
units are disregarded and only the units that survive the burn-in are shipped to customers.
Table 2.3 Example 2.3—Burn-in period determination.

Product_ID S. No. ti State ri 1/ri MCF(ti)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
2 1 28 F 17 0.0588 0.0588
3 2 48 F 17 0.0588 0.1176
4 3 530 F 17 0.0588 0.1765
7 4 1,388 F 17 0.0588 0.2353
3 5 14,40 F 17 0.0588 0.2941
7 6 1,455 S 0.2941
1 7 7,068 F 16 0.0625 0.3566
16 8 8,250 F 16 0.0625 0.4191
2 9 13,809 S 0.4191
6 10 14,235 S 0.4191
15 11 14,281 S 0.4191
10 12 19,175 S 0.4191
17 13 19,250 F 12 0.0833 0.5025
8 14 19,403 S 0.5025
11 15 20,425 S 0.5025
9 16 20,997 S 0.5025
13 17 21,144 S 0.5025
14 18 21,237 S 0.5025
5 19 21,762 S 0.5025
17 20 21,888 S 0.5025
16 21 21,974 S 0.5025
12 22 22,149 S 0.5025
4 23 25,660 S 0.5025
1 24 26,744 S 0.5025
3 25 29,834 S 0.5025
Burn-in Time Estimation

0.9
0.8 MCF = 0.0262(Age)0.2937
0.7 R2 = 0.9397
0.6
0.5
MCF
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Age (in cycles)
MCF Tangent with slope 1/50000 Fitted Curve
Figure 2.7 Graphical plots of Example 2.3.
Figure 2.7 shows plot of MCF (data of column 3rd and 7th in Table 2.3.
Example 2.3—Burn-in period determination), power function fitted curve,
its equation and index of fit, and the tangent with a slope of 1/50,000. The
burn-in period can also be found out analytically as
MCF , M (t ) 0.0262t 0.2937 ,

dM (t ) 1
m(t ) 0.0262 0.2937 t 0.2937 1
dt 50, 000
Therefore, t = 4,572.62 cycles with MCF(4,572.62) = 0.3114.
2.3.2 Confidence Bounds on MCF: Exact Age Data

Assuming that the values of cumulative number of events at any recur-
rence age follow a lognormal distribution, then at any recurrence age ti,
the upper and lower confidence bounds of MCF can be computed by [7, 8]
K Var ( MCF (ti ))

MCF (ti )
MCF (ti )L MCF (ti )e , and
K Var ( MCF (ti ))
MCF (ti )
MCF (ti )U MCF (ti )e , respectively.
Here, 0.50 < δ < 1 is the confidence level, Kδ is the δ standard normal
percentile, and Var(MCF(ti)) is the MCF variance at recurrence age ti. The
variance is calculated by
 2
 1 
1
Var ( MCF (ti )) = Var ( MCF (ti−1 )) + 2 ∑
ri  j∈R 
d ji − 
ri  
 ti 
Where Rti is the set of the units that have not been suspended by ti and
dji is defined as follows:
dji = 1, if jth unit had an event recurrence at age ti
dji = 0, if jth unit did not have an event recurrence at age ti
Based on the above equations, the computed variance, lower and upper
bounds are provided in the columns #7 and #8, respectively, of Table 2.2.
MCF and confidence calculations. Figure 2.8 shows the plots of with con-
fidence bounds on the MCF.
The estimated 90% upper confidence bounds for the cumulative num-
ber of failures after four year of operation for 100 units is 0.5695 × 100 ≈
57 failures. This information can be used for estimating the repair costs
confidence bounds
0.6
0.5
0.4
MCF
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
Age, in hours
MCF UPPER BOUND LOWER BOUND
Figure 2.8 MCF with confidence bounds of Example 2.2 data.

or planning for spares. The ensuing section presents the non-parametric

estimate of sample MCF from the grouped data.
2.3.3 Construction of MCF Plot and Confidence Bounds:

Grouped Data
The procedural steps to calculate MCF for grouped data are as follows [4]:
1. If the data is not available in grouped form, determine

the numbers of intervals and interval size from the data
range. A well-known Sturges’s rule can be utilized to deter-
mine the desirable number of groups into which a distri-
bution of observations should be classified; the number of
groups or classes is 1 + 3.3 log n, where n is the number of
observations.
2. Determine the number of occurrences and suspensions
events in each interval and tabulate them.
3. Enter the number of units (N) entering in the successive
interval considering suspensions (Ci) with an initial sample
size of Ni for i = 0. The subsequent samples are computed as,
Ni = Ni−1 − Ci−1.
4. Compute the MCF, MCF(ti) = MCF(ti−1) + m(ti), where
the average number of recurrent events per sample unit
over an interval i (increment in MCF(ti)) is given by
Ri
m(ti ) = . The Ri d enotes the number of recur-
( N i − 0.5 × Ci )
rent event in ith group and denominator provides an average
number of units in that group.
5. Plot MCF with respect to the interval ages.
2.3.4 Confidence Bounds on MCF: Grouped Data

As stated in [4] that to calculate approximate confidence bounds for MCF
from interval data as computation of correct limits are complicated and
cannot be computed using simple procedure. Nelson [4] suggested that
the naïve confidence bounds for the exact data can extended to rather than
in an easy manner and do not require all the individual item’s history. The
approximate confidence bounds of MCF are computed by
MCF ti MCF (ti ) K var (MCF (ti )) and

L
( MCF (t ))
i
L
= MCF (ti ) − Kδ var ( MCF (ti ))
where
i
m(t j )
(
var MCF ti ≅ ( )) ∑ (N − 0.5 × C )
j j
j =1
We explain the interval age analysis by applying it on a curtailed prob-

lem given in the Chapter 5 of reference [4].
Example 2.4. [4]

Table 2.4 shows the field data (grouped by months in service) on replace-
ments of defrost controls in refrigerators. Calculate the MCF estimate for
the cumulative percent replaced. What would be the number of replace-
ments over a 15-year typical life of such refrigerators?
The last column of Table 2.4 shows the MCF(ti), which is plotted in
Figure 2.9. The second-order polynomial is found to be a better fit than a
power relation. From this polynomial fit, the number of replacements over
a period of 15 years turns out to be replacements per refrigerators.
However, one can observe that there is large number of suspensions
occurred in 12th and 24th month, respectively. The investigation revealed that
first 12-month data came from refrigerators whose owners had sent in a dated
purchase record card and thus has known installation date and this date and
date of a control replacement were used to calculate the refrigerator’s age at
each replacement. The data on month 13 through 24 months came from the
refrigerators whose owners’ extended the warranty for another year for all
parts and labor. The data from 25th through 29th months came from refrig-
erators whose owners’ bought warranty for another year. Thus, the second
and third year data representative of subpopulations with high replacement
rate, not the population as a whole, consequently, the MCF plot consists of
pieces of MCF’s of three subpopulations, giving an appearance of increasing
replacement rate, whereas the population rate was essentially constant. This
can be verified by taking the data of first 12 months’ period only.
2.4 Case Study: ROV System

The Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) are unoccupied, highly maneu-
verable underwater robots that can be used to explore ocean depths while
24
Table 2.4 Data for Example 2.4.
Month i Number of replacements, Ri Number entered, Ni Number suspended, Ci m(ti) MCF(ti)
1. 83 22,914 0.0036 0.0036
2. 35 22,914 0.0015 0.0051
3. 23 22,914 0.0010 0.0062
4. 15 22,914 0.0007 0.0068

5 22 22,914 0.0010 0.0078
6. 16 22,914 3 0.0007 0.0085
7. 13 22,911 36 0.0006 0.0090

8. 12 22,875 24 0.0005 0.0096
9. 15 22,851 29 0.0007 0.0102
Repairable Systems Reliability Analysis
10. 15 22,822 37 0.0007 0.0109
11. 24 22,785 40 0.0011 0.0119

12. 12 22,745 20041 0.0009 0.0129
13. 7 2,704 14 0.0026 0.0155
14. 11 2,690 17 0.0041 0.0196

(Continued)
Table 2.4 Data for Example 2.4. (Continued)
Month i Number of replacements, Ri Number entered, Ni Number suspended, Ci m(ti) MCF(ti)
15. 15 2,673 13 0.0056 0.0252
16. 6 2,660 28 0.0023 0.0275
17. 8 2,632 22 0.0031 0.0305

18. 9 2,610 27 0.0035 0.0340
19. 9 2,583 64 0.0035 0.0375
20. 5 2,519 94 0.0020 0.0395

21. 6 2,425 119 0.0025 0.0421
22. 6 2,306 118 0.0027 0.0447
23. 6 2,188 138 0.0028 0.0476

24. 5 2,050 1188 0.0034 0.0510
25. 7 862 17 0.0082 0.0592
26. 5 845 28 0.0060 0.0652
27. 5 817 99 0.0065 0.0717
Non-Parametric Reliability Analysis
28. 6 718 128 0.0092 0.0809

29. 3 590 590 0.0102 0.0911
25
MCF Plot
0.1000
0.0900 y = 0.0017x1.0212
y = 0.0001x2 - 0.0008x + 0.0073
R2 = 0.8681
0.0800 R2 = 0.9895
0.0700
0.0600
MCF
0.0500
0.0400
0.0300
0.0200
0.0100
0.0000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Month
MCF Poly. (MCF) Power (MCF)
Figure 2.9 MCF plot of Example 2.4.
Figure 2.10 A ROV. (Image taken from: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/55267618549

5210644/?nic=1).
being operated by someone at the water surface, i.e., it allows to explore

the ocean without actually being inside the ocean (https://oceanexploreer.
noaa.gov/facts/rov.html). A typical ROV is shown in Figure 2.10.
These underwater robots are controlled by a person typically on a sur-
face vessel, using a joystick in a similar way that one would play a video
game. A group of cables, or tether, connects the ROV to the ship, sending
electrical signals back and forth between the operator and the vehicle. Most
ROVs are equipped with at least a still camera, video camera, and lights to
transmit images and video back to the ship. Additional equipment, such as
a manipulator or cutting arm, water samplers, and instruments that mea-

sure parameters like water clarity and temperature, may also be added to
vehicles to allow for sample collection. Initially developed for industrial
applications, such as internal and external inspections of underwater pipe-
lines and the structural testing of offshore platforms, ROVs are now used
for many scientific applications. They have proven extremely valuable in
ocean exploration and are also used for educational programs at aquaria
and to link to scientific expeditions live via the Internet.
ROVs range in size from that of a small computer to as large as a small
truck. Larger ROVs are very heavy and need other equipment such as a
winch to put them over the side of a ship and into the water. While using
ROVs eliminates the “human presence” in the water, in most cases, ROV
operations are simpler and safer to conduct than any type of occupied-
submersible or diving operation because operators can stay safe (and dry!)
on ship decks. ROVs allow to investigate areas that are too deep for humans
to safely dive themselves, and ROVs can stay underwater much longer than
a human diver, expanding the time available for exploration.
An industry, dealing with remote operation of subsea well equipment,
has been observing downtime issues due to a series of failures observed in
its remotely operated underwater vehicle system despite following a fixed-
time preventive maintenance schedule. The downtime is becoming a cause
of concern due to revenue losses and its reputation. Therefore, apart from
the other measures, the company decided to conduct a preliminary reli-
ability study to carry out an assessment of its operational fleet by using
their recorded failure data. In this study, the data for a fleet of 53 systems
with 488-recorded failures during last 5-years were available. A total of 14
failure modes, corresponding to 488 failure entries, were observed and are
presented in Table 2.5. Here, we are only presenting the case for the sake of
application of the methodology presented in this chapter by applying the
approach on the 2-year period data set.
Based on data available and questions, we wish to answer, two
approaches had been followed, i.e., (i) interval age analysis and (ii) exact
age analysis.
2.5 Interval Age Analysis

2.5.1 MCF With All Types of Failure Modes Combined
Table 2.6 displays failure data of ROV by grouping it in 1-month interval
associated to the observed failure modes. There were a total of 267 system
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we had better only have the kitchen fire in the mornings; but I don't like to
think of you going out to work cold."
"I don't feel the cold," said Luke. "We certainly must make a difference
somehow. Discuss it with mother and see if she can't help. She knows we are
rather in low water."
"I don't see how we can give away so much as you do Luke," said Rachel.
"We really could not afford that £5 that you gave for the heating of the Church
for instance."
Luke looked worried.
"I have always somehow managed to do my part in that way," he said. "I can't
bear not setting an example in giving."
"No, it's horrid," said Rachel. And yet she felt strongly, that if by giving away
money he was deprived of his much needed yearly holiday the work itself
would suffer.
After he had gone, the subject that had caused their talk and had brought to
light their poverty forced itself again upon her.
No holiday! All the summer in this tiny stuffy little house away from the flowers
and the breezy wind. How could she bear it herself, and still more how could
Luke go on working all day and the greater part of the evening in the terrible
heat, which was making her feel giddy and faint already.
She hurried into the drawing-room which was without sun and threw the
window open. Then she looked for her weekly bill books and sat down to
examine them. She saw they were higher than she supposed they ought to
be, but she did not see how she could economise with a man in the house. If it
were only herself and Polly they could do on less; but Luke, though he might
not notice that he was having less would soon reap the consequence and feel
limp.
Rachel leant her arms on the bureau and her chin on the palms of her hands
and gazed out Of the window. How could they manage to get away for a week
if no longer?
Unfortunately Heatherland was impossible.

Her mother found herself so impoverished that she was selling her house and
was on the point of going into a much smaller one in the village. Rachel had
felt very sad when Sybil had written to tell her the news. That her mother, at
her age, should have to uproot again would be a real trial; evidently her family
were in financial difficulties too.
Rachel began to think over her belongings and wondered if she could not sell
some of her wedding presents. There was the pearl necklace that an uncle
who was dead had given her. It was of little use to her now, and in her present
mood she felt that a breath of sea air would compensate for the loss of any
number of pearls.
Yes, she would certainly sell her pearls. She wondered if the day would come
when she would be reduced to selling many of her possessions. It looked like
it. It was a terrible shame that livings should be so small that the very
necessities of life should have to be done without. Well anyhow she would sell
her pearls and not tell Luke till it was done. She would get a cousin of hers to
do the transaction for her. She knew she might be cheated and it would be no
good for Luke to try and sell them. He was no business man and would
without doubt be contented with half their value. No, she would write to her
cousin. They simply must go away somewhere this summer.
She wrote the letter to her cousin and got Polly to run round to the post with it.
Then she began to wonder if she ought not to do what Luke had suggested;
ask the advice of Mrs. Greville. But she was saved the trouble, for late in the
morning her mother-in-law came round to see her.
"Luke tells me you are rather worried about the expenses," she said, "and I
am wondering if I can help you. Shall I look through your books and see what
you could do without?" and as she saw Rachel flush she added, "It is not at all
surprising my dear. Of course you have never been used to economise. I
hope you don't me an interfering old woman," she added kindly, as she saw
signs of distress on Rachel's face.
"It's very good of you," said Rachel; but she bit her lip feeling humiliated in the
extreme.
Mrs. Greville was not long in discovering things which would have to be done
without. For instance, she explained to Rachel she could make quite nice
puddings without eggs. Considering the expense of eggs, 4d each, it was
ruinous to follow the cookery books which prescribed more than one in quite
simple puddings. A great deal of money had been thrown away on
unnecessary eggs and they mounted up at once. Then it was much better in
these days to have margarine rather than butter. She never used anything but
margarine herself, and really you would not know the difference.
Rachel sat by her side smiling. Not being a housekeeper all these economies
seemed so paltry to her, and yet she knew they were necessary. She had of
her own will married a poor clergyman, and must bear the consequences. And
Mrs. Greville was being very kind; and giving as little pain as possible. Her
feelings towards Rachel had somewhat changed since that Sunday on which
she had gathered the girls' choir together. It had struck her mother-in-law as a
sporting action on her part and had pleased her. And now, for the sake of her
son, she was very anxious not to hurt his wife's sensitive spirit more than
necessary, but she had no idea how galling the whole thing was to her pride.
And Rachel was bent on her not guessing it. So she sat by her side smiling,
and watching her mother-in-law making notes for her as to the things that
were really necessary to have and those which were mere luxuries.
"I fear you must give up all luxuries, I hope Luke told you how poor he is,
when he asked you to share his poverty with him?" she said laughing. Rachel
joined in the laugh.
"We had much more interesting things to talk about," she answered. "Luke's
mind does not run on such matters as eggs and margarine."
"That's true," said Mrs. Greville. "The fact is, that some of the poorest people
are the clergy. It ought not to be so. They should not have to worry about eggs
and margarine as you say, they have so much more important things to think
of and they should be spared that. Besides they are expected to help in every
bit of work that goes on in the parish. Unless they have property of their own
the worry of pounds, shillings, and pence, weighs them down. Happily, as you
say, Luke does not worry himself about those kind of things, but then he has a
wife and mother to worry for him. If he had not he would have less time and
strength to think of his people. I don't suppose many realise how the clergy
suffer from poverty, for they suffer in silence."
"Well I hope Luke won't ever be reduced to wearing a coat green from age, as
a poor man in our part of the world at home has to do. Not that I suppose
Luke would notice if his coat were all colours of the rainbow."
Mrs. Greville laughed, and said goodbye while at the door she turned back to
say:
"Remember, not so many eggs, and margarine instead of butter. You'll find
that makes a difference very soon."
CHAPTER XV.
RACHEL'S PEARLS.
Rachel took out her pearls from the jewel box and looked at them. They were
certainly very beautiful. She had not worn them since her wedding day; and
she did not see any chance of wearing them again.
In case the parting with them should grow a little hard she packed them up
quickly and went to the post to register them.
It seemed to her as if she was parting with another link of the old life. But after
all what did that matter! She had Luke; and it was true what Gwen had said,
that Luke compensated for the loss of all else. Besides which, she knew that
they both needed a change and rest, and certainly sea breezes were of more
value just then than pearls locked up in her jewel case could be. Nevertheless
it cost her something to part with their beauty. It was not so much their value
that she had thought of as their beauty; and more than once she had taken
them out simply to have the pleasure of seeing something very lovely. There
was so little beauty surrounding her that she revelled in the sight of her pearls.
RACHEL TOOK OUT HER PEARLS—AND LOOKED AT THEM.
It was some time before the cousin, to whom she had sent them, wrote and
told her that he believed they would fetch a very good price; and one morning
at breakfast she opened a letter that was lying on the table beside her, and a
cheque, much larger than she had hoped for, fell out.
Her exclamation of surprise and pleasure caused Luke to look up from the
paper he was reading.
"What is it?" he asked.
"Something delightful," she answered. "We can now go for our holiday."
"What do you mean? Have you come in for a fortune?"

"I feel as if I had in our present strait," said Rachel still looking down at the
cheque in her hand. "Would you like to see what I have?" She held it out to
him.
Money meant little to Luke, except that it enabled him to carry out plans on
which he had set his heart. And there was a plan of his that sprang at once
into his mind as he looked at the cheque. His face glowed.
"Where did it come from?" he asked, astonished and delighted.
"I sold my pearls."
The smile on his face faded for a moment.
"I did not know you had any, I have never seen them."
"I have never shown them to you as I know that that kind of thing is not in your
line, you don't care for jewels; but I wore them on my wedding day. I hope you
saw them then."
"No, I only saw you. But why didn't you tell me what you were doing?"
"Because I was afraid you would not let me part with them. Uncle Joe gave
them to me, and I was fond of him."
"I shouldn't have prevented you from parting with them. What is the good of
pearls?"
"The good! Why their beauty is their good. They are gifts from God just as
everything else is that is lovely, and of good report. Don't despise them.
Besides," she said, feeling a little sore, "Uncle Joe gave them to me, and I
loved him." Then she added, determined not to give way to any feeling of
disappointment, "and now we can think about our holiday. Where shall we
go?"
She was folding the cheque up and putting it again in the envelope of her
letter. But on noticing that Luke did not answer her question, she glanced up
and found him looking out of the window with a dreamy happy smile on his
face. He was evidently thinking of the holiday. Perhaps his thoughts had flown
to Southwold and the moon's silver pathway on the sea. The happiness
displayed in his expression of face made her feel that the small self-denial that
she had exercised was well worth while.
"I do believe," he said, still looking out of the window, "that at last my dream
will be fulfilled."
"What is your dream?" asked Rachel. She had been right. He was evidently
dreaming of Southwold.
"Why, to put electric light in St. Marks. Think how attractive and bright it would
make the place. I never thought I should be able to do it. How much do you
think it would cost?"
Rachel was silent from astonishment and disappointment.
Then she said slowly:
"You don't suppose, do you Luke, that I have sold my pearls to be able to do
for the Church what the people are far better able to afford to do than we are?
You seem to forget that we are really poor, much poorer than many of the
congregation. No, the first thing we must do," she said decidedly, "is to pay
our bills and to start afresh, and then to go for a holiday."
Rachel's tone of voice was so decided that he turned and looked at her in
surprise.
"But," he said, "it is God's work that you are refusing."
"No," she answered, "I don't think it is. To provide the luxury of electric light in
a place where the gas is quite good and sufficient, seems to me to be not so
much doing the Will of God as paying our debts, and going for a holiday,
which will give you strength to do His work better."
Luke was silent.
"Besides," she added in a lower voice and smiling, "you forget next January."
Luke looked mystified. Then noticing the expression of his wife's eyes, he
remembered.
"I forgot for the moment," he said. "You are quite right."
At the thought of January Rachel's face had lost all the surprise and
disappointment as she looked down again at the envelope containing the
cheque. Then she suddenly drew it out with a gay laugh and flourished it in his
face.
"Happily it's mine," she said, "and you can't get at it."
CHAPTER XVI.
THE CHURCH COUNCIL.
"I know you won't give way," said Rachel, as she helped her husband into his
coat.
Luke did not answer at once.
"If you remain firm this time you will find it easier the next."
"I don't intend to give way," said Luke gravely. "It would be fatal."
"Yes, and you would never forgive yourself." Luke buttoned up his coat and
looked at his wife.
"We should hear the same excuse that that old woman gave for not attending
her Parish Church," he said smiling.
"What was that?"
"That she had been too ill for the last half year to come to the services but she
was proud to say she had not missed a single Whist Drive."
"Oh you mustn't give way," repeated Rachel earnestly. Then she added, laying
a hand on his arm, "You know what I shall be doing."
When Luke smiled his face was transfigured.

He smiled now.
"You will be doing the part of Moses," he said. "I am not sure that I should not
fail if it were not for that." Then he opened the door and was gone.
Rachel stood where he had left her looking absently at the door which he had
shut after him.
That the Church Councils were not always happy meetings she knew. Luke
said the right people were not on it. There were some really in earnest, but
these often seemed afraid of speaking. Those who spoke the most often and
the loudest were those who wanted to make their Church the most popular in
the town by way of parish dances, whist drives, etc. Luke, Rachel knew, had
always stood out against such methods of work, but people were growing
persistent, and the subject was to come up again this evening. His last words
had surprised her and made her anxious, for they showed her that his
resistance was growing weaker and that he felt himself in real danger of giving
way.
She knew what giving way would mean to him. It would lie on his heart like
lead. He would not look for blessing so expectantly and hopefully in his parish
if once his church began to cater for the amusement of his people instead of
putting its full strength into the spiritual work. By this time Rachel knew her
husband so well, that she felt sure that he would grow melancholy and
depressed, and his work would be robbed of zeal and happiness in
consequence.
It was not as if he had any doubts as to the wrongfulness of such methods for
Church work. He absolutely disapproved of them and had made his opinions
known. If he gave way or countenanced such proceedings, in the least,
people would cease to believe in him.
Well there was one thing she could do to help him to be strong; she would go
and do it. And while Luke was wrestling with his Church Council, Rachel was
wrestling in prayer.
Then she went down stairs to listen for his footstep.
When she heard it, it did not inspire her with hope. Luke came in quietly and
made his way slowly into the drawing-room where he knew he would find her.
"Well?" she said.

He took a seat on the sofa near her.
"I have gained my point."
Rachel's eyes shone.
"What good news," she said greatly relieved. "Why do you look so
melancholy?"
"Because though I have gained my point I have lost four of the most regular
members of the congregation. They walked out of the room."
"Oh well, that is not half so bad as if they had gained the victory," said Rachel
cheerfully. Then Luke looked lovingly down at his wife.
"I doubt if I should have taken such a strong attitude if it had not been for you.
I knew you were praying."
"Yes, I was praying."
"The knowledge of that helped me enormously. The four who resigned have
been my most loyal supporters and I can tell you it was hard to stand out
against them. They have been so exceedingly kind to me ever since I have
had the church. It was this fact that made it so difficult. Besides I love peace."
"Peace with honour, but not without."
"That's just it. I felt that my Master's honour was at stake."
"I can't tell you how thankful I am," said Rachel. And under his wife's influence
Luke regained something of his usual spirits. But Rachel had only heard
Luke's side of the question. The next day she was inundated with callers.
"I suppose you know," said Mrs. Moscombe, the wife of the owner of the
principal shop in the parish, "that the Vicar got his way by one vote only. I own
when I heard all the arguments in favour of opening the Hall for such
purposes I began to wonder if we ought not to do what the neighbouring
churches have done to attract the young people."
"I don't think that kind of thing attracts people to Church," said Rachel.
"But as my husband says," continued Mrs. Moscombe, "it saves the boys and
girls from going to worse places. Surely that is the work of the Church."
"It may save them for two or three days, possibly; but it really leads them to go
to unwise places of amusement in the long run, and I know my husband feels
very strongly that the Church loses its spiritual power if it goes in for catering
for amusements."
"But then, dear Mrs. Greville, your husband, forgive me for saying so, is rather
peculiar in his views. He scarcely moves with the times and isn't up to date as
they say."
Rachel flushed.
"The times are not so particularly good that one should wish to move with
them," she said. "I am very thankful that my husband does what he considers
right without swerving or moving with the times."
Rachel was glad to see the last of her visitor, but had hardly said goodbye
when the door opened to admit Mrs. Stone.
"Of course," she said as she took a seat, "your husband has told you all about
last night. I admired him immensely. He didn't give way an inch though the
majority were really against him."
"But anyhow he had a majority of one."
Mrs. Stone laughed.
"And he would not have had that if it had not been for me. I didn't agree with
him in the least! I must tell you, but I voted for his views as I always feel he is
such a good man that he probably knows what is for the good of his people
better than I do. If it had not been for my vote, he would himself have had to
give the casting vote."
"I am very disappointed that you don't agree with us," said Rachel.
"Well I do believe in people keeping up with the times, and girls and boys are
crazy now for dancing and cards. You can't get them if you don't give way.
Things have changed so much since our fathers' times."
Rachel was silent. She felt depressed. She quite expected people like Mrs.
Moscombe and others who had called to see her, and who did not profess to
be religious, to misunderstand Luke's action, but it was a blow to find that her
friend Mrs. Stone also disagreed with him.
But the last caller was the most trying of all.

Rachel heard her mother-in-law open the front door and walk heavily across
the little hall.
"What has Luke been doing?" she exclaimed almost before she was in the
room. "I hear he has quite estranged the four best supporters of the Church."
She looked at Rachel as if she were to blame.
"It was about the amusement question," said Rachel. "He put down his foot at
the proposal to introduce them into the work of the parish."
"Well I call it remarkably silly of him. It is a matter of very little importance and
certainly not worth wrangling over. I am quite thankful I am not a member of
the Council. I could not have voted against my son, but I should have felt very
vexed at being a party to such a loss to the Church."
"You mean?"
"I mean losing his four best financial supporters, and those who give the most
to the Easter offerings. Who is he to look to now, I should like to know? And if
he only waited to consider the state of his own finances and the expense of
food, (eggs are still fourpence a piece), he would not have made such a fatal
mistake."
Rachel was silent, but she disagreed with every word her mother-in-law had
spoken. Then after a pause during which Mrs. Greville tied and untied her
bonnet strings in her agitation, she said:
"I don't suppose any consideration respecting finance would weigh with Luke
against doing what he thinks right."
"My dear, young men often make a fatal mistake in going their own way,
thinking that youth must know better than age. Think of those four gray haired
men who know more of the world than Luke, being set at nought like that. I
have never known Luke to make such a mistake. If he had only consulted me
before he had acted."
Then Rachel spoke.
"But don't you see how noble it was of him to keep to what he felt right even
though he must have known what the result would be. I own am proud of him,
and should have been bitterly disappointed if he had given way. I am sure he
did the right thing."
Mrs. Greville looked at her son's wife and could not but admire the way she
stood up for her son's folly, (as she considered it). There was an expression
on her face that any mother-in-law would have been pleased to see on the
face of her son's wife. But for all that she felt it incumbent on her to give her a
snub.
"I daresay," she said, "that you admire him. So would most young girls who
only look for actions without weighing their cost. We all admire a man who is
not afraid to speak out. But when it comes to flouting those who have been
kind and considerate, and who never hesitate to give money for the work, it is
a different matter. Luke has done a bad thing for the parish by his action of
last night."
"People would never have believed in his convictions again if he had given
way," said Rachel.
"Well now, don't you go and encourage him in that kind of thing," said Mrs.
Greville. "I hope that you recognise the fact that Luke is not a paragon of
wisdom, neither can any one turn him from what he imagines his duty. But he
must remember that he now has a wife to support. He not only will stubbornly
stick to his point even when it means losing money for the work of the parish,
but will give away every penny he possesses without a thought of the
consequences. I daresay you have found that out."
Rachel laughed, thinking of the pearls.
"Well, am I not right?"
"Luke is the most generously minded man that I have ever come across," said
Rachel.
And then Mrs. Greville gave her a kiss. She could not resist it; though she
knew that her action would startle her daughter-in-law.
"My dear," she said, "I do believe that you love that boy of mine as much as I
do."
Rachel was tempted to answer "a great deal more," but forbore, only returning
the kiss with warmth. She was getting almost fond of Mrs. Greville.
"Well, you see," she said with a smile, "he is my husband."

"But that does not always follow I am sorry to say. Wives are generally very
quick in seeing and resenting faults in their husbands. And much as I love my
dear boy I see a great many in him."
"But there are more virtues after all," was Rachel's answer, "and to return to
the subject of whist drives, it is perfectly true what Luke quoted to me from
some speech yesterday. 'The Church has so little power with the world
because the world has so much power over the Church.' Don't you agree?"
"Well perhaps it is so. But when a man's bread and butter is concerned and
when the Church funds are low, I own I feel it is not the time to be too
particular."
"I am afraid I don't agree with you a bit."
"I don't suppose you do; that is because Luke has imbued you with his ideas
of right and wrong."
"Luke has a very high ideal," said Rachel, "and I am trying to live up to it."
And Mrs. Greville went away thinking to herself, "I only hope that Luke
realises what a devoted wife he has. I don't believe he does."
CHAPTER XVII.
LUKE IS DISCOURAGED.
The four members who had left the Church Council when the vote went
against Whist Drives for Church purposes, did not leave the Church. They
valued their Vicar too much to do so suddenly; but they were thoroughly vexed
at the decision arrived at.
It had been a blow to Luke to find that he only had a majority of one. He had
hoped that his congregation had felt with him in the matter, and finding how
strong the stream was towards such means of increasing the popularity of the
Church, depressed him not a little.
Moreover, he felt bound, greatly against his will, to preach against such
methods and to give his reasons for so doing; and though some respected
him for his courage, there were others who resented it. To Rachel, the Sunday
on which he mentioned the matter was a most painful day; though she was
glad that Luke had spoken out on what was much on his mind.
"I am beginning to think," he said, on sitting down to dinner after the service,
"that my time in the parish is about over. It seems to me my influence for good
is not strong enough. It wants a stronger man than I am here."
"You are tired," said Rachel. "That's what is making you downhearted. Last
week was such a very heavy one for you. In a day or two you will see things
differently."
Luke smiled unbelievingly.
"What I should like, and in fact what I have always longed for," he said, "is a
Church in London. Though I doubt if such an honour will ever come my way. I
am not a big enough man to be trusted with a London parish."
"London!" cried Rachel. "Oh Luke, I should hate it of all things. Besides you
must be a man strong in body as well as in soul to work a London parish
satisfactorily. I should be very sorry to see you undertake such a work."
"I'm quite strong enough," said Luke. "The only things that try me are the petty
quarrels and vexations of such a parish as this. I heard this morning that Went
and Ethers have fallen out, and on a ridiculously small matter. I fancy
everything would be larger and more important in London. It is just the petty
matters that worry me."
"Human nature is the same everywhere. I expect you would find small souls in
a London parish just as you do here."
"Would you very much object to London?" asked Luke. "Not that there is the
slightest chance of me being offered a Church there. But it is the dream of my
life. Fancy working in the very hub of the Universe. I should revel in it."
"The work would be enormous, unless you had several curates. And you know
how difficult they are to find now-a-days."
"I shouldn't mind the work. The more the better, so long as it is not spoilt by
bickerings and quarrellings. Should you very much dislike it?"
"Intensely. I don't feel in my present mood, as if I could endure it." Then seeing
a look of disappointment on her husband's face, she added, "But where thou
goest I will go, you know that."
"Yes, I have no doubt of that," he answered.
And his longing for London increased during the next few months. It was a
time of great disappointment for him. When he had first come to Trowsby, he
had had the warmest of welcomes, and the largest congregation in the place.
His preaching was arresting and people congratulated themselves on having
such a Vicar. He had come straight from France where he had been acting as
Chaplain, and had there shown great bravery under fire. Many came to hear
him just because of this. But when the rage for amusements began to show
itself, and it was found that the Vicar had no sympathy with it, and had no new
Gospel to preach, but preached the same Gospel as they had heard before
the war, untouched with modernism and the various other new religious
theories, the congregation that had increased out of curiosity gradually
dwindled, for they said, "He's not up to date." It was disheartening for Luke,
specially as he heard that a Church not very far off was crowded to
overflowing on account of all the social questions that were discussed during
the sermons, and well-known lecturers on the various religions came down
from London, Sunday after Sunday, to preach.
"Nevertheless," he said one day to his wife, "I shall continue to preach the
Gospel; and by-the-bye Rachel, I must somehow get three days of quiet at
least, for some of the men's Bible Class want to discuss those questions
which have been raised by the Modern Churchmen's Conference; and I must
prepare for the discussion. But I really don't see how I can manage it. I am
late as it is with the Parish Magazine."
Rachel was laying the table for dinner at the time and looked up quickly at her
husband.
"Pass that over to me," she said.
Luke looked at her a little doubtfully.
"Do you think you can manage it?" he asked.
Rachel laughed.
"Certainly I could. I am a little more intelligent than you give me credit for.
Have all the people sent in their accounts?"
"No, that's just it. Sargent has never sent in his description of the Temperance
Meeting, nor has Mrs. Lent of the Scripture Union Meeting. They are so often
late. It means a good long walk as there is no time to send them cards to
remind them of their duty. The manuscript ought to go in early to-morrow
morning to the printer or the magazine will not be out in time. I should be
thankful to have at least two quiet uninterrupted days; but then there are sick
people to visit. I don't see how I can."
"You can quite well if you will only trust me," said Rachel, smoothing the table
cloth. "You have never tried me."
"I wonder what my mother would say."
"What does it matter? I don't belong to your mother I belong to you. You must
take the responsibility of me," she added laughing.
And so it was settled and Luke had two whole days of quiet. He did not move
out of his study except for meals, and then he hurried over them and ate them
without speaking. Rachel, knowing what he was going through and in what
dead earnest he was, in his longing to rid his men of the terrible doubts that
had been sown in their hearts, kept silence. It might have been a quiet day
arranged by the Bishop!
Luke had given her a long list of people to visit, and had told her what
information was needed for the magazine, and Rachel set to work asking no
further questions. She dispensed money where she thought it was needed
(not always wisely alas!) and tended to the best of her knowledge the sick
people, singing to many of them; and though it was work just after her own
heart, being utterly unused to it having had no training whatever, it took a
great deal out of her, particularly as she was of a sympathetic nature. But she
felt it was well worth while when, after the two days were over, the strained
tired look on Luke's face had disappeared giving way to one full of peace and
happiness.
He had felt it his duty to face over again, all the arguments and difficulties that
his people might come across; and he realised that he was at war with the
Devil. The words of St. Paul often ran in his mind; "For we wrestle not against
flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of
darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places."
Not even Rachel was conscious of the spiritual warfare that was raging in her
husband's little study, nor how often he threw himself on his knees crying to
God for help in the conflict, nor had Rachel the faintest suspicion of the
victories that were gained within its walls.
She had often wished that her husband was not so preoccupied, and had
more thought for the small things of life which make all the difference to its
comfort. But though she felt that the things of which she complained in her
heart were so insignificant compared to the great matters about which Luke
was engaged, she had no idea that his preoccupation and absentness of mind
were often caused by the fact that he had either lost or won a spiritual battle.
He was thankful now that he had spent so much time in facing the doubts and
difficulties that he had met with in the course of his reading, so that the two
quiet days enabled him to prepare the subject in such a way as to make the
truth plain to his men.
On the night of the meeting Rachel found it rather hard to occupy her thoughts
with anything but the great strain which she knew Luke was passing through.
He was late home and to turn her mind from that which was making her
anxious she sat down to the piano and sang.
She was just finishing her song when she heard the front door open. She sat
still in her suspense, expecting Luke to come at once into the drawing-room.
But instead, she heard him going upstairs to his study, and walking heavily as
if he was tired.
For some moments she sat still where she was, then she followed him. But at
the study door she stopped.
Was that Luke groaning? Was he ill?
She very softly opened the door and looked in.

Luke was on his knees, his arms on the writing table and his face buried in
them. He was praying out loud.
Rachel closed the door and went downstairs again. Her heart was heavy, and
anxious. She knew that his habit was to pray out loud; but his prayer to-night
was mingled with groans and probably tears. What had happened? Rachel
moved restlessly about the room. Her impulse was to go to the piano, and
soothe her anxiety by playing. But she was afraid of disturbing Luke. Then she
took up her work and sat waiting.
It was late before she heard him coming down the stairs.
His face bore no trace of the anguish he had apparently been going through.
He came and sat down by Rachel's side without speaking.
"Well?" she said.
He was silent for a moment, then he said:
"I have never had such a fight with evil as to-night. I feel sure that the Devil is
working with all his might to destroy any good that may have been done."
"What happened?"
"We have been discussing for nearly three hours the articles of our faith. The
men had primed themselves with all the arguments they could lay hold of
against them. The Divinity of our Lord, the Virgin Birth, the Resurrection; and
the very men who I had hoped were on the eve of making the great decision
have been thrown back."
"But there were surely some who were helped by your words?"
"Yes, thank God. There is a small band of faithful Christians as firm in their
faith as I am. They know the Christ; and believing Him to be God take His
Word as truth. But the greatest number have been shaken by these views that
have been scattered broadcast since the Modern Churchmen's Conference at
Cambridge, and there are some who are weak in the faith and just tottering,
as it were." Luke rose up and began to walk about the room.
"I feel," he said, "that a stronger man than I am is wanted for this place. It
seems to me to be the stronghold of Satan."
"When I am weak, then am I strong," said Rachel.

Luke stood and looked at Rachel for a moment. Then his face broke into a
smile.
"Thank God for my wife," he said.
CHAPTER XVIII.
GAS STOVES VERSUS MOUNTAINS.
"Next year," said Rachel one day, as she and Luke were on their way to
Church, "next year we may not be able to afford a holiday. So I am resolved
that we shall have a good one this August. We will go to the Lakes."
Rachel wrote and secured rooms at Rydal and a month after the men's
meeting mentioned in the last chapter, they started off for the North.
What the sight of the beauty that now surrounded them was to Rachel can be
imagined. She told Luke that she had seen nothing that could be called
beautiful ever since coming to Trowsby, with the exception, she took pains to
add, of her primroses and hyacinths in the little garden of which she was
inordinately proud.
To sit by the Lake in the cool of the evening and watch the lights and shadows
on the mountains, was positive bliss to Rachel. She tried to make Luke revel
in it as much as she did, but alas, his thoughts were still engrossed with his
parish, not withstanding all Rachel's efforts to make him forget it.
"It will be so much better for the parish as well as for you if you will only put it
away from your mind," she said.

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Repairable Systems Reliability Analysis A Comprehensive Framework John Wiley Sons All Chapter

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Repairable Systems Reliability

Analysis: A Comprehensive Framework

Rajiv Nandan Rai

Sanjay Kumar Chaturvedi

Wiley Global Headquarters

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Cover image: Stockvault.Com

Printed in the USA

Series Editor Preface ix

3 Repairable Systems Reliability Analysis: Parametric 43

5.4.2.1 Maintenance Strategy for HFRCs With FM

8.3 Variability 174

This is the 10th book in the series on performability engineering since

as the perfect renewal process (PRP) and the non-homogeneous Poisson

Conventionally, a repair action usually is assumed to renew a system to its

Rajiv Nandan Rai

Table 2.1 Rotating machine failure data of Example 2.2 16

Table 5.5 Comparative results of both overhaul cycles (Variant 2) 112

Table 8.3 Process requirements of LPCR blades repair 180

Figure 1.1 Types of repair 5

Figure 3.3 Photograph of an aero engine 51

Availability or its variants quantitatively summarize the functionability

1.2 Perfect, Minimal, and Imperfect Repairs

Figure 1.1 Types of repair.

Live Data Analysis Recurrent Event Data Analysis

Non- Non-Parametric Parametric

Kaplan-Meier Normal Mean Perfect Renewal

Median Rank Exponential

Figure 1.2 Various techniques for reliability analysis.

A renewal process (RP) is a counting process where the inter-occurrence

• The number of repairs, on average, for all system at a speci-

• Trends in repair rate or costs whether increasing, decreas-

2.2 Mean Cumulative Function

Figure 2.1 A MCF example.

Figure 2.2 An improving system.

Figure 2.3 A stable system.

Figure 2.4 A deteriorating system.

Figure 2.5 History and distribution of failures observed at age t.

2.3 Construction of MCF Plot and Confidence

of randomly selected systems drawn from a population of

ri 1, if t i is the age of event recurrence

3. The MCF is calculated for each sample recurrence age ti, as

The above procedure is illustrated through following examples.

Example 2.2. [6]

Table 2.1 Rotating machine failure

Table 2.2 MCF and confidence calculations.

2 37 F 22 0.0455 0.0455 0.0020 0.1590 0.0130

3 64 F 22 0.0455 0.0909 0.0039 0.2204 0.0375

4 707 F 22 0.0455 0.1364 0.0059 0.2810 0.0662

6 1,851 F 22 0.0455 0.1818 0.0079 0.3400 0.0972

3 1,920 F 22 0.0455 0.2273 0.0099 0.3979 0.1298

9 6,792 F 22 0.0455 0.2727 0.0118 0.4547 0.1636

1 9,424 F 22 0.0455 0.3182 0.0138 0.5107 0.1982

5 18,980 F 21 0.0476 0.3658 0.0160 0.5695 0.2350

11 27,853 S 14 Figure 2.6 MCF plot of Example 2.2.

Table 2.2 MCF and confidence calculations. (Continued)

product with manufacturing defects corrected gradually or the effectiveness of

Example 2.3. [6]

Table 2.3 Example 2.3—Burn-in period determination.

Burn-in Time Estimation

MCF Tangent with slope 1/50000 Fitted Curve

Figure 2.7 Graphical plots of Example 2.3.

Table 2.1 Rotating machine failure data of Example 2.2 16

Table 5.5 Comparative results of both overhaul cycles (Variant 2) 112

Table 8.3 Process requirements of LPCR blades repair 180

Figure 1.1 Types of repair 5

Figure 3.3 Photograph of an aero engine 51

Figure 2.10 A ROV. (Image taken from: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/55267618549