17. VITAL STATISTICS \ Statistics is related not only to physical resources and statistical measurement of business trends like demand, Supply, e1°- rather recording of quantitative data relating to human stock is also included in its scope. Vital statistics represents this very important area of statistics. | Meaning and Definition Vital statistics has an important place in statistical data because data relating to vital events like birth, death, marriage, migration, etc. are needed for sonia! and economic planning of any country. Besides, recording and Icacurement of manpower of any country can be made By the vtital statistics, In this connection, words of Arthur Newshome are worth mentioning. He said, + important branch of statistics as it deals “Vital statistics forms perhaps the most ic with mankind in the aggregate. It is the science of numbers applied to the life history of communities and nations.* Demographic data on birth, death, migration, ete. is called vital statistics. According to Prof. Benjamin, "Vital statistics are conventionally numerical teoords of marriage, births, sickness and deaths by which the health and growth of acommunity may be studied." In the words of Donald J. Bogue, "Demography te tho mathematical study of size, composition and special distribution of human population and of changes over time in these aspects through the operation Po the five process of fertility, mortality, marriage, migration and social mobiliy. Both the above definitions define vital statistics in a very narrow sense. In @ publication of United Nations Organisation it has been defined in a very broad Conse. ‘According to them, “Vital statistics has come to mean statistics of live birth, death, foetal death, marriage, divorce, adoption, recognition and legel separation." Difference between Population Census and Vital Statistics Generally, people assume that population census and vital statistics are synonymous to each other but this perception is not true. Although the population census and vital statistics are interrelated and object of both of them is to find out the size and growth of populatio;: but there are may differences between them which are as follows. : (1) Population census is the fixed measurement of population of any country whereas vital statistics is the dynamic form of population measurement Under population census, the number of residents of a particular territory '§ ( 706 )MITAL STATISTICS | | ; ticular terri ~ 3s is the record of vital evencs ney nereas the subject mater Sus is the counting of number of tica ean vi events like bith, death, marriage, dhores, a “attics 9 of {0 find out the sine “> U8" of both, population census and vitae Vita the si © of population and its growth but und atistics is he size of population is found out through cou se yatlon consus mortality rate, fertility rate, reproduction rate, etc. data (4) In every country, " the work of i I - certain periodic interval wi Population census is carried out at a ee eiltgighou teva ereas the task of registration of vital events is carried 1 rt i (5) Itis stics, a vit Hits maniatory for every people to provide the necessary information said, wane Ps census, whereas the registration of vital events can be deals | Y OF optional according to the laws of the country. 1e life Importance and Uses of Vital Statistics i In practical life, vital statistics is used in different areas. Vital statistics is istics. useful for the study of social and demographic characteristics of any country. rerical The utilities and uses of vital statistics are described below yrowth (1) Analysis of Demographic Trends—Population characteristics of any yraphy country can be studied with the help of demographic trends like birth, death, tuman life-expectancy, fertility, reproduction rates, etc. Analysis of these demographic aration trends is possible only through vital statistics. obility. (2) Measurement of Population Growth—By population census the size 2, Ina of population and its growth can be measured only at a certain periodic interval broad whereas with the help of rates used in vital statistics, the growth of population of lve can be found out at any time. aes i tered vital statistics are legal 3) Legal Utility—In actual practice, the regis ¢ ee a in aifferent areas and occasions of life. For example, at the time of ‘admission to educational institutes or at the time of getting adult voting right, ics birth certificate is needed or death certificate is needed at the time of getting it aim. ios a the payment of life insurance c ; ation a Planning of Health Services—Vital statistics are also useful in the ne ind () A ‘ces, On the basis of information provided through to fin planning of health services. On the basis 01 Ta ey nomes in vetwer" registered vital statistics, arrangemen eran programme can be made. [ Fe Uae e aissasees the reliable information is of (5) Helpful in Prevention of Disc sos ho Pox. Maa ore available regarding the number 0” Pre Tne adopted for Its prevention in non! 6 Tuberculosis, etc. then effective mea: future. "|© PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS —The relative importance of various (6) Useful in International Comparison: " tistics related countries can be found out by the comparison of their vital st to social, economic sectors. (7) Uses In Administration—Vital, statisti 5 administrative works of government. For example, vital statistics are used in economic planning, voters list, house construction, employment programs, etc, (8) Knowledge of Social Conditions—The social condition of any country can be known through the statistics related to the occurrence of marriage, divorce, separation, etc, in the society. Hence, with the help of these vital statistics, social evils can be identified and effective measures for their prevention can be adopted. Methods of Obtaining Vital Statistics There are following three methods of obtaining vital statistics : (1) Registration Method—Most popular method of obtaining vital statistics is registration method. In different countries, various legal provisions are in force regarding registration of vital statistics. In India, Registration of Birth and Death Act 1969 has been implemented. Under this act, registration of information regarding bith and death of every people is compulsory. Hence, information obtained from registration offices is the most authentic source of vital statistics. (2) Census Method—Population census is also an important source of obtaining vital statistics. In every country, population census is conducted at a certain periodic interval, e.g. after every 10 years in India. Under population census not only the number of peoples are counted rather information regarding their age, marital status, sex, number of children, profession, educational qualifications, etc. are also collected. The biggest limitation of population census method is that the information relating to interim period cannot be obtained because it is conducted at a certain periodic interval. (3) Ad hoc Surveys—Sometimes, all the information regarding vital statistics cannot be obtained through registration offices or population census. In such cases, ad hoc surveys are conducted for obtaining such particular ies are also very useful in the information. Calculation of Vital Rates Size of population of any country at a certain point can be determined by the following formula : Py = Po + (B-D) + (I-E) Where : P, = Total population at a given point of time Po = Total population at > point of time in the past B = Total births during the period D = Total deaths during the period | = Total number of immigrants during the periodVITAL STATISTICS 709 E = Total number of emigrants during the period It is clear from the above formula that the three main elements affecting the size of population are—Births, Deaths and Migration. These are called vital events under vital statistics. Form the practical point of view, births and deaths are the only two main vital events and rates and ratios of these events are calculated for measuring population growth. MORTALITY From biological point of view, death means destructibility of the body that has taken live birth, But under demography, death has a different meaning. This is such a vital event of life, which brings reduction in the size, composition and distribution of population. Mortality is the analysis of the group of events of death. It is related to a group of people rather than an individual. Specific Features of Mortality ‘Some of the main characteristics of mortality are as follows : (1) Generally, mortality and death are used as synonymous to each other. (2) Under demography, it is recognized as a demographic event rather than assuming it as secret of life. (3) Death is a truth and it is unavoidable, although its time is not pre-determined. (4) Death is not an optional event. People have very little control over it. (8) High mortality rate is the indicator of the undeveloped condition of an economy, (6) Mortality plays an important role in the growth of population. The reason for increase in population of a country can be decrease in mortality rate instead of increase in birth rate. Importance of the study of Mortality The study of mortality is not only essential for demographic analysis rather itis indispensable for obtaining good health standard in the country. Importance of its study is described below : (1) Government can provide for different public health amenities if the causes of deaths are known to it through the analysis of data relating to deaths. By providing such health amenities, life expectancy of common people can be increased. (2) Proper estimates about number of widows and orphans can be made with the help of mortality data and government can formulate appropriate Policies regarding them, (9) Estimates about population can also be made on the basis of estimates of mortality. Such estimates can be made both before and after the date of Population census,TH0 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS information regarding We span g (4) The study of mortality also gives | sn My ee vance companies determine the a general public. On this basis, life insurance © of life insurance premium. Measurements of Mortality For the study of mortality of any population, its measurements can by divided into following two classes : (1) Life Table—it has been describe: chapter. (2) Mortality Rates—Under this cate: relating number of deaths available from reistration to th Following death rates are included under it : (@) Crude Death Rate (b) Age-specific Death Rate (0) Standardized Death Rate (@) Cause-specific Death Rate (a) Crude Death Rate It is the most convenient and simple index of death rate under which total deaths at a certain point of time is divided by mid-year population and multiptied by a constant K. Generally, the value of K is 1000, Following formula is used for its calculation : din detail in the later part of th .gory, various rates are calculated 1e concerned population con = BK Where = D = Number of deaths in a particular area during a particular time P = Mid-year population of that area during that time For example, if 14 lakhs people live in Allahabad city and out of them 70,000 people died during 2006 then its CDR will be calculated as follows : CDR = somo x 1,000 = 50 per thousand per year The above death rate can also be expressed in percentage instead per thousand. There are following advantages in crude death rate : (1) Its calculation is very simple because in this rate, total number deaths is divided by mid-year population and multiplied by 1000. (2) In such type of calculations, very less data is needed and those 422 are easily available, " (@) This rate is easily understandable to general public. For exam crude death rate of 50 per thousand per year can be easily explained to gener! public that it means that in a particuar area within a period of one yea" deaths will occur out of 1,000 people.VITAL STATISTICS 71 (4) Generally, itis stated in statistical fn rate for total population, (6) Separate death rate for rural and ur termined from it. Similarly, death rate for male ‘and aifferent period can also be known, ‘There are following limitations of this rate : (1) From statistical point of view, its calculation is not logical, The rate is calculated by establishing relationship between different data obtained from two different types of sources. Population figure obtained from the census is for a particular date whereas number of deaths obtained from registration is for the whole year. (2 This rate is one type of average, which is deeply affected by extreme values. (8) The events of death are related to some specific diseases, which is not considered at the time of its calculation. (4) Various population groups are included in the calculation of this rate. There is a high fluctuation in their death rate, Publications because it is the one deat! ‘an population can also be female of various age group (b) Age-specific Death Rate Crude death rate expresses only the probability of deaths per thousand. In this rate, specific causes affecting a particular individual like age, sex, residential status, etc, are not considered. Age-specific death rates provide information regarding deaths in different age groups of residents in a particular place. Following two types of data are required for the calculation of age-specific death rate : () Mid-year population of various age-groups (i) Number of deaths in various age-groups For the calculation of this rate, number of deaths in every age-group is divided by mid-year population of the same age-group and multiplied by constant K. In the form of a formula : Di ASDR = 5; K Where : Di = Number of deaths in specific age-group Pi = Mid-year population of the same age group Exercise 1: From the following data, Calculate Crude Death Rate and Age specific Death Rates : Age-group (in years) Population Deaths 10 5,000 250 10-30 40,000 100 ‘0-50 45,000 ow712 PRINCIPLES OF STATIOTIOS Bo70 10,000 see 70-90 71800 120 90 and above 2,500 ti 30,000 Solution : opr = 9 xK 4,150 y 4,990 = 23 per thousand por yoar = Ath x asor = 8k 250 = 60 per thousand por yoar ASDR 10 = So0T% 1000 P 400 0 = 10 per thousand por yoar ASDRioa0 = To;000 * 100 Pp ASDRgps0 = eat x 1,000 = 6 per thousand por yoar ASDRep70 = 000 x 1,000 = 6 per thousand por yoar ASDRiggg = 7155 X 1,000 = 20 per thousand por yoar ASDRap a avove = Za95 X 14000 = 200 por thousand por yoor Infant Death Rate In the calculation of infant death rato, number of deaths of infants of loss than one year of age of a particular area during a specilic yoar Is dvided by number of children born in the same area and multiplied by constant K, Inthe form of a formula : or = 92x k Where : Dy = Number of deaths of children below one year of age B= Total number of children born Infant deaths form a significant part of the total number of deaths occurring in a country during a year. This rate is more than crude death rate. (c) Standardized Death Rate Differences are found between death according to age groups and se composition in a same area. Since, both these factors are not considered crude death rate, hence, it is most unsuitable for inter-regional coompariso. Standardized death rates are calculated for comparative study. For the calculation of standardized death rate, an assumption Is mat? about a standard population and a local population. Under it, first of al,VITAL STATISTICS 713 rate per thousand is calculated for different age groups of standard population and local population, Thereafter, death rate of local population for different age roups are multiplied by standard population and the summation of their product is divided by total standard population. This resultant figure is standardized death rate. Exercise 2 : Compute crude and standardized death rate of the local population and compare them with the death rate of the standard population. ‘age-group Standard Population Local Population (years) | Population Deaths | Population Deaths 0-10 4,200 36 800 32 10-20 2,000 10 3,000 12 20-60 6,000 48 4,800 48 60-100 800 40 1,400 42 Solution : Age-group Standard Population Local Population (years) | Population] Deaths) Death |Population| Deaths} Death Rate Rate lper 1000} Per 1000 0-40 4,200 36| 30] 800 32 40 10-20 2,000 10 5 | 3,000 12 4 20-60 6,000 48 8 | 4,800 48 10 60-100 800 40 50 | 1,400 42 30 Total 10,000 | 134] 134 |10,000 | 134 | 134 Crude Death Rate of standard population = 2 x K = qaty x 1,000 3.4 per thousand _ 134 = Fo,000 * 1,000 Crude Death Rate of Local Population " 13.4 per thousand Standardized Death Rate of Local Population = (1200 x 40) + (2000 x 4) + (6000 x 10) + (800 x 30) #6: 7,200 + 2,000 + 6,000 + 800 = 48000 + 8000 + 60000 + 24000 = 100007 4 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS w= $40.000 «44 por tousand For standard population, crude death rate and standardized death rate is same. (d) Cause Specific Death Rate Ratio between the number of deaths population is known as cause specific death rat due toa specific cause and mid-year fe. In the form of a formula : Cause specific death rate = Ps xK Where : Di = No. of deaths due to a specific cause P= Mid-year population taken as 10,000 oF 1,00,000. For Since, Di is not very large hence, K is example, number of deaths due to cancer is 2,000 and population of that place is 1 crore, then cause specific death rate will be : 2,000, x 1,00,000 = 20 pr lakh per year LIFE TABLE For the first time in 1862, Grant stated the concept of life table in his book ‘Natural and Political observations.....Made upon the Bills of Mortality’ Grant presented the life table of population of England through this book William Betty provided it scientific form, Yuler and Suchmilch revised the primary form of life table. Nap and Kuzinse has a very important role in the construction of its composition. Meaning of Life Table Traditionally, mortality is presented in the form of life table. It is the simplest technique of measuring vital events, which is not only accurate but also unambiguous. According to GW. Barclay, ‘The life table is a life-history of aths* hypothetical group or cohort of people as it is diminished gradually by de: This definition emphasizes on the following points : (1) Under life table, study is made about group of people or hypothetical cohort of people. Life table is not constructed for a particular person. Number of children born during a year can be included in the study as a group of people. If actual data is not available then hypothetical cohort of people can be studied in the life table. (2) In the life table, life history of the group of people is studied. This study continues up to the death of the entire cohort. If 1,000 children are included for study in the life table then the construction of life table will continue * until the death of all those 1,000 children occur. (3) Number of people diminishes in the hypothetical group or cohort. This decrease is caused only by death. Other vital events do not have any effect on it.VITAL OTATIOTION 716 Assumptions of Lifo Tablo Lifo tablo Ia constructed on tho basin of following aunumptiona : (1) Thoro In no offoct of migration on tho oohor, The group of poopla for Mo tablo is unatfactod by tho numbor of Immigrants and omigeanta, (2) Mombors of tho cohort dic According 10 pro-dotorminod tint, Mortality fotos oro dotorminod In advanco und changon taking placa in them ara not takon Into considoration at tho tno of Constructing ito table, (3) Cohon of group of pooplo starts with cortitiod of rogistorad population whoso numbor Is oxprossod In noarost thousand, ton thousand of lakh, This {8 also callod Radix of lito tablo, (4) Numbor of doaths is distributod in Initial yours. For oxamplo, it tho total batwoon 6 to 7 yoars is 72 thon it (5) Gonorally, mombors comparison can bo mado bot malos and fomatos, Types of life Tablo Mainly, thoro aro two 'ypos of lifo tablo ; (1) Complete Lite Tablo—In this typo of Iifo tablo, lito history for ovary ho mombors of tho cohort, in it, tito history of the Cohort is recorded through tho first yoar to last yoar of tho lito, (2) Abridged Lite Tablo—in abridged tifo tabs 0 shown for somo imy oqually during the wholo yoar oxcape I number of doaths taking placo in will bo 6 doaths Ina month, 1 only ono sox aro Includod in tho cohort ao that oon tho dilforoncos of mortally situations among 9 Indicatos tho tito 1 10 yours, For othor Your x and x + 4, g horas dig moans. tho most Important eaPecancy of numbor of porsons Complotin 19 tho ago of columns OF Ti ta, LO. Cy Pye Gy Ly X moans cortain, ans probability of doathy Dotwoon sth and oth your Humber of deaths \botwoon 10 and 14! your This Io716 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS column of the life table because relationship between other columns of the jig table with any age group is established with its help. ___ 2, Probability of Dying (q,)—Generally, it is the second column of the life table. It shows the probability of death between certain age x and x + 1 This column is the starting point for calculation work of the life table. It is well known that the living person is always affected by the danger of death. When it is expressed in terms of probability, then it is called q,. It varies between 9 and 1 but can never be 0 i.e. impossibility of death or 1 Le. certainty of death, For finding the value of this column, following formulas are used : % = 1- Pe 3. Probability of Survival (p,)—It shows the probability of survival between certain age x and x + 1. There is no other condition between death and survival, It is well known that only two types of probability can be expressed about a person—of death and of survival. Summation of these two is equal to one. It also varies between 0 and 1 in different age’ groups. Following formulas are used for finding out the value of p,. P, = 1-9, a ket 4 4, Dying between ages x and x + 1 (dx) —This column provides information about total number of deaths between certain age x and x + 1. This number is the reason for decrease in cohort. If the total number of persons living at age 5 is 70 and total number of persons living at age 6 is 65 then it can be easily found out that the value of ds is equal to 5. The value of d, can be found out with the help of following formulas : = he beat x ay 5. Living at age x (),—This column shows the number of persons living at certain age. It provides information regarding the combined effect of death on hypothetical cohort. The number of persons living at age zero is known a the radix of the life table. It is the number of those newly born babies who start their first year of life together. If its value has to ba found out in the form Of I+ then its formula will be : har =o dy =k x Py If it is to be found out in the form of /, then its formula will be :VITAL eTamoTiCN “1 4, korg \ i xO ETS as} kB 6. Person-years lived at cach ago (Living botwoen ago x and x + 1) (4) shows the average number of porsons living botwoon cortain ago x and x + 1. k shows the number of parsons living at a cortain ago vhoroae lax Shows the number of persons living after compoting tholr noxt ono yoar of life. L, expresses average of these two numbers. Its exact calculation Is not possible. it can be approximately calculated on tho basis of tho assumption that the effect of death will remain same during the whole year. In tha form of formula : = 05 4, or eet Since, in the initial years of life, effect of death is not uniform and number of deaths are more in the latter years of life, hence, for determining L,, of these years instead of deducting 0.5 dy, 0.7 d, and 0.6 d, are deducted. L, will be calculated in the following manner : Ly = - 0.7 dy L, =|, = 06d, Thereafter, normal formula of'L, will be used, 7, Total number of years lived after each age (T,)—This column shows the summation of person-years lived at a certain age. For finding out the value of Ty the value of L, is added 10 Tx,1. In other words : Ty = bt bet + Lae t bes + .till the end of the table ‘The value of T, can also be found out by multiplying |, by ey The formulas that can be used in relation to this column are as follows : Tatar th Test xT Trak X & ‘8, The mean expectation of life or Life expectancy (e,)—What is the lite expectancy of the group of people at a certain age is shown by tho last column of the life table. It is very easy to calculate the values of this column. In the form of a formula : a aT Cole and Demny has shown an additional column of life table called M,. It shows the rate of dead pefsons completing a separate ago interval from MPG,718 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS &mong the living persons at a specific age. In the form of a formula : 4, M, = 7% ey Here, the value of d, is calculated on the basis of actual deaths insteag of predetermined deaths. Exercise 3 : Complete the following part of a life-table : x o oz a a 100 : 50 1 043 : : : 2 0.04 - - % 3 0.03 a 5 : 4 0.05 . ie . Solution : 2 For completing the life table, values of various columns will be computed as follows, Pea 1G Py = 1- Gy = 1-022 = 0.78 - 0.13 = 0,87 1- 0.04 = 0.96 id Py = 1-5 = 1- 0.03 = 0.97 Py = 1-q, = 1- 0.05 bat = he X Py 1, = ly X Py = 100 x 0.78 = 78 l=, X py = 78 x 0.87 = 68 |, = |, X Py = 68 x 0.96 = 65 1, = ly X Py = 65 x 0.97 = 63 I, = |, X Py = 63 x 0.95 = 60 Here, the value of |; has been calculated so that all the values of dx can be computed easily. = he eas dy = h-h dea hb dye |y qs = dy = I, - Is = - 05 d, =) - 0. 100 - 15 = 85 = 78-6 =72 L,=h- 05d, = 68-05 x3 =68-2=66VITAL STATISTICS 719 = 65-05% 2= 65-1 = 64 = 63-05% 9=63-2= 61 found out through the multiplication of |p by y= h- 05 4 Ly = ly 05 Gy Here, the value of Tp can be eo Ty = by X 0 = 100 x 50 = 5,000 ‘The formula of T,,4 will be used for finding out the value of T; and its succeeding values. Tet = Tok Ty = Ty by = 5,000 - 85 = 4,915 Ty - Ly = 4918 - 72 = 4.843 Ty = Ty Lg = 4843 - 66 = 4.777 Ty = Ty- by = A777 - 64 = 4713 Ty _ 4,713 = En = 74.81 “The life table will be completed by filing its values inthe following manner : x % Px 4, & x & o 022 078 22 «100 «85 5,000 50.00 1 018 087 10 78 72 4,915 63.01 2 0.04 ee 3 0.03 097 265A TTT. 73.49 4 0.05 oss 63 63sCYC47I 74.81 Exercise 4 = Fill in the blank columns of the following part of a life table : x « mx c&& ok kw Ke o - o.8i2 = 1,00,000 - : : 1 - 0.940 - = : : < 2 0.s74 - : : a 3 - 0.988 : : : = 5 58720 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS Solution : a = 1 = py Q = 1- py = 1 - 0.812 = 0.188 Q, = 1-p, = 1- 0.940 = 0.060 Q=1-pp=1 = 0.974 = 0.026 _ Q3 = 1- py = 1 - 0.988 = 0.012 a 4 : Be 1,00,000 x 0.812 = 81,200 = ly x py = 81,200 x 0.940 = 76,028 l, X Pz = 76,328 x 0.974 = 74,343 I, X Py = 74,943 x 0,984 Se bed dp = Ip - |, = 1,00,000 - 81,200 d, = | - ly = 81,200 - 76,328 = ly by = 76,328 - 74,343 4d, = ly - l, = 74,843 - 73,451 = 892 k= k- 0.Sdx Ly = Ig = 0.7dy = 1,00,000 - 0.7 x 18,800 = 1,00,000 - 13,160 = 86,840 Ly =|, - 06d, = 81,200 - 0.6 x 4,872 = 81,200 - 2,923 = 78,277 L = l,- 05d, = 76,328 - 0.5 x 1,985: 6328 - 993 = 75,335 1, = k- 05d, = 74,343 - 0.5 x 892 = 74,343 - 446 = 73,897 For finding the value of T3, |; willbe multiplied by eg, Ty = Ip X ey = 74,343 x 55 = 40,88,865 For finding out the values of T, or Ty, and Ty, the formula Tx = Ty44 + Ly will be used : Ta = Ty + Ly = 40,88,865 + 75,335 = 41,64,200 Th = Te + Ly = 41,64,200 + 78,277 = 42,42,477 To = Ty + ly = 42,42,477 + 86,840 = 43,29, 317 T, = 43,29 = Jo _ 43,29317 Ty = T0000" :‘VITAL STATISTICS 724 % ~ px. ox & & hk & 0 0.188 0.812 18,800 1,00,000 86,840 43,2917 43.29 4 0060 0.940 4872 81,200 78,277 4242477 5225 2 0026 0.974 1,985 76,328 75,395 41,64,200 54.56 3 0012 0.988 892 © 74,343 «73,897 40,88,065 55.00 Exercise 5 : Fill in the blank columns of the following part of a fife table : x x px ax bk kx mk oe 0 : cs - 400 - 5,000 1 - : - 90 - - 2 : - : 81 - Cee 3 : : : 73 - - + 4 : - 6 68 2 fonts Solution : Here, the values of d, shall be computed first : 9, = he hea dy = Ip- |, = 100 - 90 = 10 d, =1,-, = 90-81=9 d, = |, - fy = 81-73 d, = |- |, = 73 - 68 at a5 =P = y= 04 a= tags area 0.099 wee 0.088 a= Sh = & - 0008 Poo qe t-o1 = 09 py =t-q,= 1-04 Pp = 1- Gy = 1- 0.099 Py = 1- gy = 1 - 0.088 = 0.932 py =1- G4 = 1- 0.088722 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS | | ator a = 100-07 x 10 = 100-7 = 93 Cah. 06d, = 90-08'2 0 = 20-6 '= 88 u +05 d, = 81-05x8= 81-4 7 Ge 108 dy = 73-05 X 73-3 =70 ly = 05 0, = 68+ 08 x 8 68-3 = 65 » *Lp = 5,000 - 93 = 4.907 =, = 4,907 - 65 = 4,822 yo by = 4822 «77 = 4,745 = by = 4,745 - 70 = 4.675 px ox ik ix x ex 0.900 10 100 93 5,000 50.00 0.900 9 90 85 4,907 5452 0.901 8 81 7 4,822 59.53 0.932 3 73 70 4,745 65.00 0.912 6 68 65 4,675 68.75 Find the following values of a life table : (2) lp When To 4,000 and ey = 50 (b) Lg when gg = 0.1’and dy = 100 (©) To when e 50, dg = 0.2 and dy = 20 (A) Po when |p = 100 and dy = 10 x x 0 0.100 1 0.100 2 0.099 3 0.068 4 0.088 Exercise 6 : Solution : (a)VITAL STATISTICS 723 ©) y= by 0.7 dy = 1,000 - 0.7 x 100 = 1,000 - 70 = 930 © % % _ 20 [b= a= 82-10 poz t-qat-01=09 4 [u= t= i-%) Exercise 7 : Fill up the blanks which are marked with a question mark in the following life table : = @ x |, = 50 x 100 = 5,000 x hy sede 2 ot py F vg ee Tt; & 30 7,62,227 ? 2 2 ~~ 2 2,72,96,732 2 31 (7,58,580 2 gobs gs gas ? Solution : Gea 5g = Iag - yy = 7,62,227 - 7,58,580 = 3,647 9, Faq Py P59 = 1- Ga) = 1 - 0.005 = 0.995 ik = k-05dx Loo = lop - 0.5 X Gyq = 7,62,227 - 0.5 x 3,647 = 7,62,227 - 1,824 = 7,60,403 Tar =i Tz, = Tay 7 bo = 2,72,96,732 - 7,60,403 = 2,65,36,329 & 25 = 35.81 31 _ 2,65,96.929 _ a4 og CEeh PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS FERTILITY Fertility is a complicated and controversial subject in itselt. For its study, we need the knowledge of Physiology, Anthropology and Medical Science, etc The meaning of the term fertility Is expressed in various manners for differen purposes. The question arises that the data collected for which purpose shoulg be used for its measurement. Meaning of Fertility ; i It is necessary to differentiate between two terms, ‘Birth’ and ‘Fertity, Birth is a vital event relating to an individual, whereas fertility is a vital process relating to a group of people. In short, it can be said that collective study of vital events relating to birth of individual is made under fertility. In Demography, fertility means the actual number of live births. This term is defined differently by various demographers. Critical analysis of few definitions are given below : ‘According to G. W. Barclay, ‘Fertility is an actual level of performance in a population based on the number of live births. In this definition fertility is related to the number of live births. This is the most logical basis for the measurement of fertility. In the words of Bernard Benjamin, ‘Fertility measures the rate at which a population adds to itself by births and is normally assessed by relating the number of births to the size of some section of the population such as the number of married couples or the number of women of child bearing age, ie. an appropriate yardstick of potential fertility. This definition mainly emphasizes on the measures of fertility. In the above definitions, fertility rate has been especially mentioned in the methods of its measurement. According to Thompson and Lewis, ‘Fertility is generally used to indicate the actual reproductive performance of a woman or groups of women.* This definition is more precise and logical as compared to above definitions. From the analysis of the above definitions, following characteristics of fertility emerges : (1) Fertility is related to the vital event of birth. (2) Fertility is related to only one group of population. This group is related to those women population who are in childbearing age group, ie. 15 to 49 years of age. (8) In fertility, collective study of children born is made. (4) Number of live births is considered in the measurements of ferility. Fertility is entirely different from fecundity. Fecundity means the maximum biological capacity of women to bear child. Fertility is always less than the fecundity. This reduction is due to the unmarried, divorced, separated or widowed women who despite being in the reproductive age group do not take pait in aanVITAL STATISTICS 728 ti of contraceptives prevents the ive process, Besides this, use fo ry om boing ‘converted into fertility. In other words, it can be said that woe bartier in the conversion of fecundity into actual use of contraceptives acts as @ f but also impossible to express f s. It is not only impractical Se a be jot be measured also. the fecundity in terms of data. It cant liarities of Birth Statistics ro iad to birth, ie. birth statistics are needed for the measurement of fertility. These data are different from other types of data. Its peculiarities are as follows : 41) Opportnity of parenthood can come Sano, ceath ere ae once in the life of a particular person. ; (2) The event of birth is related to both the mother and father but fertlity rates are calculated only in context of mothers. ; (8) The event of birth is related only to a particular section of the population. Very old and very young people are not related to this event. ; (4) To the some extent, the event of birth depends upon the desire of mother and father. It can be deferred by the use of contraceptives, celibacy, etc. This is not possible in case of death. (6) The birth of twins should be considered as one vital event or two; this problem may arise at the time of calculation of fertility rates. (6) There is no risk of fertility in case of unmarried, widowed, divorced, separated and sterile women. Measurements of Fertility Various methods of measurement of fertlity are available. They can be broadly classified into two classes : () Calendar year Birth Rates (W) Actual Reproduction Histories |. Calendar year Birth Rates Those rates of measuring fertility are included in this class, for the calculation of which data of birth and population are related to one calendar year, Due to'this reason, these rates are expressed in per year. Rates included in this class can be divided into two sub-classes : (@) Fertility Rates (0) Reproduction Rates Fertility Rates Reproduction capacity is not considered at the time of calculation of fertility rates. Fertility rates are calculated on the basis of number of live births and data relating to population. Main fertility rates are described below : (1) Crude Birth Rate—Calculation of this rate is similar to that of crude Geath rate. In the numerator, total number of children born is shown in place LPL more than once in life, But theue PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS Of total number of deaths, Mid- year population Is shown In the denomingtg, and it is multiplied by constant 1,000. In the form of a formula + CBR. = 8 x 1,000 Where : C.B.R. = Crude Birth Rate B rotal number of live births registered during the yoar » P= Total mid-year population For example, if the population of a city is 10,000 and total number of iy | births is | 300, then C.B.R. = 720% x 1,000 = 90 per thousand, | Crude birth rate is the simplest method of measuring conditions relat to birth. It is easy to understand and the data needed for its calculation are also easily available. But crude birth rate is not a very suitable measuremen, of fertiity because under this method, ratio of total number of live births ig calculated on the basis of total population, which includes males as well as those females whose age are more than 49 years and less than 15 yeas, “ Child bearing age is considered as 15 to 49 years, hence, this fact should be considered at the time of measuring fertility. (2) General Fertility Rate—General fertility rate means total number of live births born to 1,000 women of childbearing age. The only difference between crude birth rate and general fertility rate is that in this rate, total number of lve births is divided by total number of women of childbearing age instead of total population. In the form of a formula : B | GER. = pre X 1,000 General Fertility Rate Mid-year population of women between the age group 15 to 49 For example, if the number of women between age group 15 to 49 ina city is 8,000 and total number of live births is 300 then General Fertility Rate = Peed x 1,000 = 100 per thousand, General fertility rate is calculated at that time when registration of births and census method of population is satisfactory but the data of birth according to age of parents is not available. The calculation of general fertility rate Is based on the assumption that all women of childbearing age take part in teproduction process, but in reality, unmarried, divorced and sterile women 4° not take part in this process. This rate is calculated on the assumption that during the entire period of reproductive age group the level of fertility remains the same, whereas in reality, level of fertility is very high in the age group 19 |VITAL STATISTICS an to 90 and is vory low in the ago group 16 to 49, (3) Spocitic Fertility Rato—Fortity Is affected by various factors liko ago, martiago, area, residence, otc, Whon fortility is measured on the basis of age distribution then itis called ago spoctticfortity rato, During the ontire childbearing ‘ago, fertility varios for women of different age groups, Hence, under specitic fortility rato, fertility rates are calculated after dividing the entiro childbearing ‘age of women into different certain ago groups, Age specilic fertlity rate means the total number of live births born to one thousand women of a certain age group in entire childbearing age. In the form of a formula : Bi ASR. = py X 1,000 Where : AS.FR.= Age specilic fertility rate Bi = Number of live births born to women in the specific age group Pli_ = Mid-year population of women in the same age group In age specilic fertility rate, distribution of number of live births is known according to age of mothers. This rate helps in the calculation of total fertility rate, The limitation of this rate Is that it involves detailed calculations. (4) Total Fertility Rate—Total fertility rate is the sum of different age specific fertility rates, Total fertility rate tells us that what will be the expected total number of live births to 1,000 women during their entire childbearing age. In the form of a formula : 49 TER. = 2 ASFR. Where : TAR. = Total Fertility Rate 49 % AS.FR. = Total of age specific fertility rates of 15-49 age group f it age specific fertility rates are known on the basis of uniform 5 yearly age intervals then summation of these specific fertility rates is multiplied by 5 to know the value of total fertility rate. In the form of a formula : 2 TRR. = z ASR. x i Where : i = age group interval If the difference in age group intervals is not uniform then the age specific fertility rates of every age group shall be multiplied by the related age interval . and then it will be added. This summation is the total fertility rate. In the form of a formula : 49 TRR. = % (AS.ER. x i) i >» Mr728 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS: In tho calculation of total fertlity rate, sometimes constant Is taken as 4 instead of 1,000, In this measure, age specific birth rates can be presented In the briefest form. With the help of this rate, calculation of reproduction rates Is also possible, The biggest limitation of this rate is that it Is not possible to condider the future teproduction situations. Exercise 8 : From the following data of a city c fertility rate, (3) Age-specific fertility rate and (4) alculate : (1) Crude birth rate, (2) General Total fertility rate : Age-Group No. of women (000) No, of live:birth 15-19 50 co 20.24 40 4,800 25.29 36 4,000 30-34 30 2,800 35-39 24 380 40-44 12 220 45-49 8 20 00 74,400 ‘The total mid-year population of the city in 2006 was 8,00,000, Solution : (1) Crude Birth Rate can, = 22 x 1,000 3) P = wooo x 1,000 = 18 per thousand (2) General Fertility Rate B GRR. = yes x 1,000 Plis—a9 gs poo x 1,000 = 72 per thousand (3) Age - specific Fertility Rate ASFR. = Bh x 1000 () ASF Rast = aig X 1,000 = 32 per thousand 4,80( (i) ASFRag24 = ao X 1,000 = 120 per thousand a 4,01 (i) AS.FRe5.09 = ae x 1,000 = 111.11 per thousand : 2,800 (W) AS.FReos¢ = i.qog * 1000 = 93.33 per thousandVITAL STATISTICS 729 960_ , 4,000 = 40 per'thousand () ASFRas.0 = 74,000 * 220 00 = 18.33 per thousand (v) ASFRuoaa = 7000 * 10 (vi) ASFRagag = gang % 11000 = 25 Per thousand (4) Total Fertility Rate 2 TER. = S AS.FR. x i % (32 + 120 + 111.11 + 93.93 + 40 + 1893 417.27 x 5 = 2086.35 per thousand = 2,086.35 _ a aoo = 2-086 per women (8) Child-women Ratlo—Child-women ratio means the ratio between children and women of a population. In this ratio, only the cildren below age of 5 years and women of childbearing age (i. 15 to 49 years) are included. In the form of a formula : + 2.5) x5 TER. Po. Child-women Ratio = x 1,000 ; Fiscao Where = Po.g = No, of Children below 5 years of age F5.4g = No. of women in the age-group 15-49 For example, if in a city the number of children below 5 years of age is 2,000 and number of women in the age group 15-49 is 5,000, then child women jo = 2.000 - ratio = 255g X 1,000 = 400 per thousand Child.women ratio is used to find out the incidence of childbearing among the women of childbearing age. This ratio can be used very easily in those cases where the system of registration of data relating to birth is not satisfactory because data needed for its calculation can be obtained from population census. An important limitation of child-women ratio is that evidence obtained from it is indirect because in its calculation data is collected from group of survivors instead of actual births. Exercise 9 : From the data given below of X city, find out child woman ratio : ‘Age-Group Male Population (000) Female Population (000) 05 13 12 69 12 iW 10-14 12 9 15-19 9 8 2029 16 77 3 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS 30-39 14. 14 | 40-49 13 " 50-59 12 10 60 & above 45 1" Solution : Po-s Child-women Ratio = --2== x 1,000 25.000 x< 4,000 = 500 per thousand Note : ()) Py_, = 13,000 + 12,000 = 25,000 a el = 8,000 + 17,000 + 14,000 + 11,000 = 50,000 Exercise 10 : From the following information, calculate G.R. and TRR: | Age-group _- Female Population S.FR. (per thousand) 15-19 500 60 20-26 1,000 100 , 27-35 1,500 300 36-40 1,000 200 41-44 600 90 45-49 400 50 Solution : ‘Age-group Female S.FR. Total number of | Population (per thousand) Children bom 60 x 500 | 15-19 500 60 00 = 90 20.26 1,000 100 100 1,000. 100 300 x 1,500 _. | 27-35 1,500 300 ro =480 200 x 1,000_ 36-40 1,000 200 oOo = 200 90 x 600_ | 4144 600 90 ao 45. 50 x 400_ 49 400 50 os 2 Total 5,000 500 com B GER, = pS x 1,000 7 a ‘x 1,000 = 170.8 per thousand TRR. = Z(ASER. x i)VITAL STATISTICS. 734 = (60 x 5)+ (100 x 7)+ (800 x 9)+ (200 x 5) + (90 x 4) + (50 x 5) = 300+ 700 + 2,700 + 1,000 + 360 + 250 = 5,310 per thousand Exercise 11 : From the following information find out General Fertility rate, Age-specific Fertility rate and Total Fertility Rate : Age-group Female Population (000) —_No. of live-births 15-20 20 2,000 20-25 15 1,500 25-35 25 1,500 35-45 20 1,000 45-50 10 500 Solution : Age Group Female No. of Age-specific Fertility rate 8 Population Live Births (Fi x 1000) 15:20 20,000 2,000 BO. x 1,000 = 100 20.25 15,000 4,500 745%, x 1,000 = 100 25-35, 25,000 1,500 7¢50%% x 1,000 = 60 35-45 20,000 1,000 4% x 1,000 = 50 45.50 500 7egu5 X 1,000 = 50 500 B GAR. = pri, x 1000 = ESM, x 1,000 = 72.22 per thousand AS.FR. = As per Column 4 in the table TRR. = Z(ASFR. x i) (100 x 5) + (100 x 5) + (60 x 10) + (50 x 10) + (50 x 5) = 500 + 500 + 600 + 500 + 250 = 2,350 per thousand Limitations of Fertility Rates Fertility rates are not considered very suitable for the estimation of Population growth rate because fertility rates do not take into consideration the sex and mortality of newly born child. If most of the children born are males then population will certainly decrease in future whereas if most of the children- PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS bor are females then population will certainly inereate in future. Sinilary, mortality of these newly born caildren is not taken into consideration, then actual information of population growth cannot be obtained. The be for this can be that a large number of newly born female children ry ie before attaining the age of childbearing. Hence, reproduction rates should be calculates instead of fenilty rates tor getting the information ‘about actual population growth, Reproduction Rates ; At the tirrie of calculation of reproduction rates, sex and mortality of newly bom child is taken into consideration. These rates are of two types : (1) Gross Reproduction Rate (2) Net Reproduction Rate | (1).Gross Reproduction Rate—Today’s newly born female child is future's on the number of mother and hence population growth actually depends UP reduction rate is calculated for the accurate female chid, Hence, gross repr measurement of population growth, Gross reproduction rate 1S the summation of age specific fertility rates based on ‘only newly born female child of women of childbearing age group. Hence, the difference between total fertlity rate and {gross reproduction rate is that in gross reproduction rate only the number of female children born is taken into consideration in place of total number of children born. By gross reproduction rate, we are able to know that at what rate mothers will be replaced by girls, ie. by new generation. For calculation of this rate, we proceed on the assumption that () no mother will die before reaching the maximum age of childbearing period, i.e. 49 years or will not emigrate to ary cther country and (i) fertility rates will remain constant during the entire childbearing age. Gross reproduction rate can be expressed in the form of the following formula : GR. 3 RR. = x Where : GRR. = Gross Reproduction Rate Bfi = No. of live female births born to mothers of age | Pfi = Mid-year population of women of the sar ; me e intervals are uniform, then : seeorgye Wei GRR. = S(A.S.FR. of Females) x i When age intervals are not uniform, then : GRA. = Z(AS.FR. of Females x i)VITAL STATISTICS a When detailed information are not available 8nd Sox ratlo Is not ki aS Not known, then: ‘BE GAR. BB x TRR. where : Bf = Total number of live female births 5B = Total number of live births, When sex ratio and total fertlity rate is known, thon : GAR. = TRR. x Sex Ratio For example, if 1,000 women give birth to 4,000 chile age and 48% of them are girls, then gross reproduc iren in their childbearing lon rate will be 4,000 « 8 4,920 Et 1,920 per thousand or +'qq5 = 1.92 per women, 1fG.R.A, of any population is equal to 1 then it indicates that the concerned sex is completely replacing itself. If G.R.R. < 1 (js less than 1) then it indicates that population will decrease in future because number of mothers will doctine continuously in future. If G.R.R. > 1 (is greater than 1) then it indicates that population will increase in future because number of mothers will increase ‘continuously in future. Gross reproduction rate is used under measures of fertility in population and this rate proves to be helpful in measuring fetilty in different areas at diferent time periods. This rate is considered more useful than total fertlity rate because at the time of its calculation only female children born are included who become mother in future and hence future's population depends on them. ‘The biggest limitation of gross reproduction rate is that present mortality fate is not taken into consideration under it. In reality, all female children born do not live up to the childbearing age; hence, the concept of gross reproduction fate is an illusion because it unnecessarily increases the number of expected mothers: Exercise 12 : From the following data, find out Gross Reproduction Rate : Age-Group Female Population (000) _No. of Female Children born 15-19 30 6,000 20-24 60 12,000 25.29 100 90,000 30-34 80 20,000 35.99 50 25,000 40-44 20, 5,000 45-49 5 500 >| | e we PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICO Solution of Formal ; of Fomalo of Fornaion Age-group Fomalo | No. of e Population | Childron born 6,000 6 = 04 15-19 30,000 36,000 = 9:20 412,000 20-24 60,000 80,006 = 20 90,000. gap 25-29 1,00,000 700,000 20,000 30-34 80,000 ‘905 * 0:28 25,000 35-39 50,000 ; 0.50 5,000 40-44 20,000 Biiooo = 925 500 45-49 5,000 288, = 010 A GRR. > (AS.FR. of Females) x i = (02 + 0.2 +03 + 025 + 0.5 + 0.25 + 0.1) x5 .8 x 5 = 9 per women (2) Net Reproduction Rate—In Gross Reproduction Rate, we proceed on the assumption that no mother will die before reaching the maximum age of childbearing period, ie. 49 years but there is no logical reason behind it. In reality, all pewly-born female children could not become mothers because some of them die before attaining the age of 15 years and some of them could not attain the maximum age of childbearing period. Hence, it is essential to adjust the element of mortality at the time of calculating reproduction rates for the knowledge of actual population growth. Therefore, after adjusting the effect of current mortality rate in gross reproduction rate, we can obtain the net Teproduction rate. Net reproduction raté means the total number of female children born to 1,000 newly born female children in their entire childbearing ‘age on the basis of current fertility rates and after adjusting current mortality rates, It means that this rate is the indicator of the fact that to what extent mothers give birth to those female children who remain alive up to their entica childbearing age for replacing them (Le. mothers). Net reproduction rate can be expressed In the form of the following formula : NRA. = x (ersVITAL STATISTICS 738 ot Reproduction Rate female births born to mothors of ago | AR. = No. of lve ulation of women of the samo age-group i = Mid-year POI ‘= gurvival Ratio were 9°05 reproduction rate and total survival ratio is known : NAR. = GAA X Survival Ratio 3 Je, it 1,000 women give birt to 4,000 children in their childbearing For exampl : 8 and 48% ‘of them are girls and 70% of them survive up to their entire a 4,000 x 48 ,, 70 cptabearing bro AOE x a0 = 14 ge then, net reproduction rate will ger tousand OF 1944 = 1.94 per wore. where the survival rate of every age intenval Is known: NAR. = > (ASER. of female births x i x 8) in ary circumstances, NAR, of any population cannot be more than its GAR, because mortality rate is also considered at the time of calculating RAR. I NAA. of any population is equal t+ then means that the newly on female children will completely replace ise in future, ie. the size-of popuiation wil main the same. f NAR. < 1 then it means that population ep gecrease in future because replacement of mothers in future will be less. INARA. > 1 then it means that population wil increase in future because replacement of mothers in future wil be more. Generally, GAR. and NAA. lies between 0 and 5. Net reproduction rate is a better measurement than gross reproduction rate because mortality rate is also considered in its calculation. In spite of the rate cannot be rusted as a good measurement of replacement of population because this rate also has some limitations, First, net. reproduction rate assumes that there shall be no change in fertility rate and mortality rate, but in realty, often changes take place in both these rates. Secondly, net reproduction rate does nat consider the effect of migration. It is possible that he population of a country decreases because of emigration oF increases due ‘0 immigration, pees between Gross Reproduction Rate and Net Production Rate There are following diferences between gross reproduction rate and net Yoduction rate : les reproduction rate can be obtained after adjusting the effect of tality rate in gross reproduction rate, Hence, mortality rate isnot sted in te gross rey it clon rate production rate whereas mortalty rate is adjusted in net >#98 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS ) Since, mortality rate is also considered at the time of calculating ney Teproduction rate, hence, net reproduction rate of any population is always less than its gross roproduction rate. (8) Population growth rate of two places can be compared on the basis of net reproduction rate but this comparison will be inappropriate on the basis of gross reproduction rate, : (4) In comparison to gross reproduction rate, interpretation of net reproduction rate as a measurement of population growth can be done with, more accuracy, Exercise 13 : < On the basis of following informations calclate Net Reproduction Rate ; Age-Group Female Population Female Births Survival Rates 1519 2,000 100 00 20-24 10,000 200 1.000 25:29 20,000 506 a) 3034 15,000 600 600 35-39 10,000 100 4,006 40-44 5,000 50 500 45-49 4,000 10 0 Solution : 4 Bf Age-group| Female | Female | Survival Pr Population | Births | Rates ep 6p © 15-19 2,000 100 800 0.05 0.04 20-24 10,000 200 4,000 0.02 0.02 25.29 20,000 500 800 0.025 0.02 30-34 15,000 600 600 0.04 0.024 35.39 10,000 100 4,000 0.0 0.01 40-44 5,000 50 500 0.01 0.005 45-49 1,000 10 0 0.01 0 BF NAR =5x ¥ (ers 5 x 0.119 = 0,595 Per woman Exercise 14 : On the basis of following informations, calculate Total Fetitity Rate, Gross Reproduction Rate and Net Reproduction Rate :a VITAL STATISTICS No, of births per woman ‘Ago-grouP 0.10 ie 045 ae 0.20 aa 0.07 i 0.05 40-45 Sex Ratio of this population Is 40% and Survival Solution : Rate is 45%. TRR, = (AER. x |) 6 x 0.10) + (5 x 0.15) + (10 x 0.20) + (5 x 0.07) + (6 x 0.05) 15 + 0.75 + 2.0 + 0.95 + 0.25) = 3.85 per woman GAR. = TRR. x Sex Ratio = 385 x ty 1.54 per woman GAA. x Survival Rate ois x = 0,693 per woman Exercise 15 : WY Compute General Fertility Rate, Age-specific Fetility Rate, Total Fertility Rate and Gross Reproduction Rate from the following table : No. of births in a year (000) ‘Age-group Population (0,000) Males Females 1549 500 450 20-24 425 400 25-29 390 350 30-34 320 300 95.39 260 250 40-44 210 200 45-49 170 150 Total Pe Bie Solution : Males 30 925 460 240 130 iI Roe ala S | = Bio 1,000 = 111.4 per thousand Note : B = 1,240 (000) + 1,100 (000) = 23,40,000 Females 25 315 380 210 120 daa| | | 738 A PRINCIPLES ‘OF STATISTICS | | ASRR. = Bt x 1,000 ASFRigig = qeggngg X 14000 = 12.2 per thousand ASFRigag = Panos x 4,000 = 160 per thousand 700; , ASFRig509 = sano x 1,000 = 240 per thousand a AS.FRigg.gq = a x 1,000 = 150 per thousand = 850,000 = thousand AS.FRig5.s9 = 28,00,000 * 4,000 = 100 per = ent = thousand ASR uoga = Benooee % 1000 = 48 Per ASFRuggap = Teioooo % 1000 = 6 Per thousand 49 TRR. % ASR. x i = (122 + 160 + 240 + 150 + 100+ 48 + 6) * 9 716.2 x 5 = 3581 per thousand 3581 _ 3,581 per woman ASR, of Female Births = Prt 25,000 _ ASRRg1e = agen 000 = 00086 Per woman 3,15,000 AS.FR.z020 = 70,00,000 0.0788 per woman {20,000 ASFRo529 = eatoo = 0.1086 per woman ASFRg034 = ao = 0.07 per woman ASF Rigs.a0 = Bri) = 0.048 per woman AS.FR.go-44 = atooo = 0,023 per woman 4,000 AS.FRas.49 = 75,00,000 = 0-0027 per woman GRR. = > ASR. of female births x i = (0.0056 + 0.0788 + 0.1086 + 0.07 + 0.048 + 0,023 + 0.0027) * g = 0.3367 x 5 = 1.6835 per woman By alternative formula : GARR. 2 # x TER.VITAL STATISTICS 739 00,000 11,00,000 , 9.561 = 1,683 Per woman = 23,40,000 e 16: Bea rags Reprodueton Rate and Net Reproduction Rat rom the table ! et No, of Female Children bom No, of survivors out of eats) to 1,000 women passing each,1,000 female children (ys through each age group born 45.19 30 850 20-24 100 800 25-29 300 750 30-34 250 700 3539 230 600 40-44 85 500 45-49 10 400 Solution : Aqesroup NO oF Female No, of survivors BI X 905 (a years) Children born out of each, to 1,000 women 4,000 female passing through children born each age-group (8) ©) 1549 30 850 255 20-24 100 800 80.0 25.29 300 750 225.0 30-34 250 700 - 175.0 35-39 230 600 138.0 40-44 85 500 42.5 45-49 10 400 4.0 Total 7008 B00 Bt GRR = pe form to 1,000 women Where : BF = Total no. of Female children Substituting the values : 1 GRA, = 1005 = 1,005 per woman Nar, = 2@%S) 6 = =680, _ 0,69 per woman7a PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS no, of Female children born to Note : Figures given in this question are igures given in this quest ot fo, they Have not been 4,000 women passing through each age-grouP» multiplied by i Population Growth Population is increasing in almost every country of the ee is the only country in the world where population 1s copia 4 h he rate of population growth in developing countries of the world is SO igh it has fhecome very important to study It in the form of @ problem. It is fe : mentioning here that population growth Is the result of combined effec of three processes—fentlity, mortality and migration. Population growth can be defined in this way that the change in the sie ‘of population is known as the population growth. This growth can be both, positive or negative Characteristics Population growth has following characteristics + (1) In population growth, the change in population can be of three types~Positive, negative or stable. Q) In modern times, positive trend of population growth is found in the whole world, Decline or stability in population of any country has become an unusual thing. {@) The reason of increase in world population is the excess of births over douths, Normally, birth rate is much higher than death rate In almost every country of the world, (4) Grovah in population is the result of the combined effect of three factors, These factors are—birth, death and migration. Population growth is not determined on the basis of only one of these factors. (6) The tendency of increase in world population is @ transitory phase sncrease in population cannot be a permanent phenomenon because the tote ‘space in world is limited, 5 (6) In the population growth of a particular country, migration can play an importnt role, (7) Population grovih takes the form of compound interest, ie. the increased population further increases population. Measurement of Population Growth For the measurement of population growth, following two methods are used + } (J) Process of Replacement Method (2) Observed Chango Method Process of Replacement Method In this method, population growth [s related to the process of replacementVITAL STATISTICS. TMM. ion of vital events, Deaths are replaced jethod. Population growth is determined iths and deaths and for this purpose. .J. In this method, population growth which is observed through the registrati by births is the main assumption of this m™ on the basis of net difference between bit data related to births and deaths are use is determined in the following manner : Natural Increase 499 Population Growth = Mid-year population Or Population Growth = 85° x 100 Where : B = Binh D = Death P = Mid-year population or : Population Growth = Crude Birth Rate - Crude Death Rate The rate calculated on the basis of above formulas is not the actual rate of population growth rather this can be termed as the rate of natural increase because itis limited only to the data of births and deaths and the net effect of migration is not included init, When we do not consider the effect of migration then rate of natural increase and population growth both represent the same thing, Population without migration is called closed population, which is an imaginary situation Population growth can be found out in the following manner after considering the effect of migration Population Growth = a ee int a= x 100 Wher 1 = Immigrants E = Emigrants Demerits—There are many shortcomings in the process of calculation of population growth by this method. Firstly, data are collected from two different universe—population census and registration. Secondly, there is under registration in both the cases of births and deaths, hence, available vital statistics is not trustworthy. Thirdly, it is difficult to obtain the necessary data. Observed Change Method In this method, comparison is made between two sucessive data of total population for finding out the population growth. Generally, total population of some particular place is considered under this method. Population growth is measured as under : Population Growth = Pp ~ Pya PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS Where P, and P; = Population according to second and first census respectively fl From the ratio of these two population, |e. Por ae SaHne Nae Is obtained. By deducting 1 from it, relative value of Hagens eae ca Multiplying this by 100, percentage ratio of popula = Ce M cl can be expressed in the shape of the following formula + - ‘) x 100 Onthe basis of above-mentioned formulas, population measures of different areas and periods can be compared. Practically, population growth rate between two population censuses is not very useful. it is not possible to determing appropriate policies from the population growth rate of a longer period. Besides this, if the time interval between two Population censuses is not same then population growth rates cannot be comparable, Therefore, demographers especially emphasizes on the computation of annual rate of population growth, There are two methods of determining anual rate of population growth, (1) Simple Interest Base—In this method, we proceed on the assumption that the growth in population occurs once in a year, i.e., principle of simple interest is followed in it, The formula for determining annual rate of population growth under this method can be expressed’in the form of the following formula PYP, = (1+ 9" Where : Pp and P, Population according to second and first census respectively 1 = Annual rate of population growth “n = No, of years between P, and P, (2) Compound Interest Base—in this method we proceed on the assumption that there is continuous growth in population, i.e., principle of ‘compound interest is followed in it. The formula for determining annual rate of population growth under this method can be expressed in the form of the following formula : PJP, = e” Where : = Base of natural logarithms which is equal to 2.7183 This formula is more logical, In the absence of any specific information given in the question, this formula should be used, Merits and Limitations : There re many advantages of this observed change method of measuring Poputtion growth. Firstly, this method is logical, Secondly, it needs only some data, Thirdly, both data are obtained from the same universe. There are also Some limitations of this method. Firstly, this method is a crude method becaus®VITAL STATISTICS 743 effects of changes from every source are combined in it. Secondly, if data from only one population is available or data of two population censuses are not comparable then this method cannot be used. Exercise 17 : Population of a city in 1991 Is 4,39) annual percentage rate of growth of popul interest base, 000 and in 2001 is 5,48,000 Find out lation of this city according to simple Solution : PyP, = (1 +" Substituting the values : 5,48,000 _ 10 439,000 = "+9 or Log 5,48,000 - Log 4,89,000 = 10 x Log (I + 1) or £995:48,000 = Log4,89,000 _ Log (1 + 1) 70 hd eo (es 5.4000 = Log 499000) hee aS ee (ezseesseas or AL. (29963) — 4 A. L. (0.00963) - 1 4.022 - 1 = 0.022 ‘Annual Percentage rate of growth of population of the city = 0.022 x 2 % 100 Exercise 18 : Compute the rate of population growth of a big city from the following table : Year Population (in lakhs) 1971 36 1980 40 1985 45 1991 55 Solution : PoIP Substituting the values : For 1971 - 80 #8 = 27103 x rx 9 or —_ Log 40 - Log 36 =r x 9 x Log 2.7183744 PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS or fx 9 x 0.4343 = 4.6021 - 1.5563 or rx 3.9087 = 0.0488 0.0458 3.9087 ALL. (Log 0.0458 - Log 3.9087) ALL. (2.6609 - 0.5921) = AL. 2.0688 0.01171 or 1.17% For 1980 - 85, $B = 27109 x rx 5 or Log 45 - Log 40 = r x 5 x Log 2.7183 or FX 5 x 0.4343 = 1.6532 - 1,6021 or Fx 21715 = 0.0511 = 0.02353 or 2.35 % For 1985-91 55 _ ag = 27183 x 1x6 or Log 55 - Log 45 = r x 6 x Log 2.7183, or oF x 6 x 0.4343 = 1.7404 - 1.6532 or rx 2.6058 = 0.0872 ts = AL. @.9405 - 0.4160) = AL. 2.5245 = 0.03346 or 3.35% EXERCISES Objective Questions Vital statistics is used in : (1) analysis of demographic trends (2) measurement of Population growth (3) planning of health services (4) all the above In the computation of crude death rate, total number of deaths is divided by: (1) Total mid-year population (2) mid-year female population of age group 15-495. 10. VITAL STATISTICS 745 (8) total mid-year female population (4) Total mid-year male population Infant death rate is related to the : (1) number of deaths of infants of less than one year of age (2) number of deaths of girls of less than one year of age (8) number of deaths of infants of less than five year of age (4) number of deaths of girls of less than five year of age The concept of life table was firstly stated by: (1) George W. Barclay (2) William Pety (8) Grant (4) Benjamin L, used in life table means : (1) Probability of survival (2) number of alive persons (8) person-years lived (4) life expectancy Following is used in the computation of crude birth rate : (1) total number of births (2) total number of live births (8) total number of live female births (4) total number of live male births In the computation of general fertility rate, total number of live births is divided by : (1) total mid-year population (2) total mid-year female population (8) mid-year female population of age group 15-49, (4) none of the above Gross reproduction rate is related to the : (1) total number of live births (2) total number of live female births (3) total number of live male births (4) survival rate Less than one net reproduction rate means that population in future will : (1) increase (2) decrease (3) remain same (4) none of the above The formula for determining net reproduction rate is : (1) N.RI > (AS.ER. of females x i) 2) NAR. bl x TER, (@) NRA. = TER. x Sex Ratio (4) Nu (ASR. of female births x i x S) (Ans : 4. (4) 2. (1) &. (1) 4. (8) 5. (@) 6. (2) 7. @),.8. @) 9. (1) 10. (4))us PRNGPLES OF STATISTICS Short Answer Questions nw What do you understand by Vital Statistics ? 412. What are the uses of Vital Statistics ? (Allahabad M. Cony | pws Features tM spate and Standardized Death Rat ai a ant rn te, 44, Distinguish Between Crude Death Rate (Allahabad M.Com,) 415, What assumptions are followed in the construction of life table 7 46. Explain briefly the colums "I; and "L, of life-table. 17. Define Fertility. 7 48. What is the difference between crude birth rate and general fertility rate 2 49. Describe child-woman ratio. 20. Differentiate between Fertility rates and reproduction rates. (Allahabad M. Com) 21. Explain the process of Replacement Method in the measurement of | population growth. | 22. How is the population growth measured on the basis of compound interest ? Long Answer Questions 23. Define Vital statistics. Describe various differences found between population census and Vital statistics. 24. What is meant by mortality ? Explain the importance of the study of mortality. 25. Write a short essay on the various methods of measuring mortality. 26. Whatis a life-table ? What are the various components of life-table ? What is its utility in population studies ? (Allahabad M. Com) 27. What do we mean by life-table ? What are its assumptions ? Explain the interrelationship amongst various colums of a life- table. (Hint : Description of life-table column with related formula) 28, What do you understand by Fertility ? Describe in brief various rates of its measurements. ). Do you agree with the view that fertility rates are not appropriate for the estimation of population growth ? 30. Describe in detail General Fertlity Rate, Age-specific Fertility Rate and Total Fertility Rate stating their inter- relationship. 31. What do you understand by reproduction rates ? What is the difference between Gross Reproduction Rate and Net Reproduction Rate ? 32. What do you mean by population growth ? Describe its characteristics. 33. What do you understand by population growth ? Describe various methods ‘of measuring population growth in detail.VITAL STATISTICS TAT 34, Explain clearly the simple interest base and compound interest base of measuring population growth with the help of hypothetical figures. Numerical Questions Motality eS 1. From the following data, calculate the Crude Death Rate and Age specific Death rates : Age-group (in years) Population Deaths 0-40 5,000 300 10-20 8,000 160 20-40 16,000 160 40-50 8,000 50 50-70 10,000 125 70-90 8,000 375 90 and above 2,500 400 (C.DR. = 27.3 per thousand; AS.D.R. = 60, 20, 10, 6.25, 12.5, 46.88, 160 per thousand) 2. From the following data, calculate a crude death rate for all the age groups ‘Age-group (in years) A.S.D.R. Population 0410 20 5,000 10-25 10 8,000 25-40 8 40,000 40-55 7 42,000 55-60 30 7,000 60 and above 400 3,000 (C.D.R. = 38,98 per thousand) 3. From the following data, compute crude and standardised death rate : Age-group (years) Town A Town-B Population Deaths Population Deaths 0-15 15,000 360 20,000 500 15-30 20,000 400 52,000 1,040 30 and above 5,000 140 8,000 240 Total 40,000 900 80,000 1780 (C.D.R. = Town A 22.5 and Town B = 22.25 S.D.R. = 23.125) 4. Calculate crude and standardized death rates with the help of following figures : Age-group Standard Town Local Town (years) Population Deaths Population Deaths Less than 5 10,000 300 15,000 270 5.25 50,000 1,000 40,000 1,000yas PRINCIPLES OF gtamisTICS 25.55 30,000 450 2 = 55 and above 10,000 600 2 Total 700,000 2a50 7,00,000 232 (C.DR. = 23.5 and . = 25.3) Life Table 5, Fil in'the blank columns of the folowing Part of the life nies x a OPK dy k k x & 0 = 0.80 - 1,000 - ioe 1 - 0.94 : * . 5 - 2. - 092 ‘. z . i 3 - 0.93 : - 2 : ie 4 0.94 a ~ a = 28, 670, 623, 586; d, = 200, < (q = 0.20, 0.09, 0.08, 0.07, 0.06; |, = 800, 7! 7 58, 47, 37; ly, = 860, 757, 699, 646, 604; Tx 57684, 57038; e, 73.93, 80.2, 86.1, 91.56) 6. Complete the following part of a life table : x eK me Oe k & Step {O.20Ics Ausats sarees LODE gn TES 92 0.204 - - - 2 - - 9 One 8s AERTS ‘ 94 0.210 - - - - - eh 9 0214 Ho - (px = 0.799, 0.796, 0.793, 0.790, 0.786; k = dx = 388, 315, 254, 204, 165; Lx 6030, 4646, 3546, 2675, ex = 4.02, 3.91, 3.79, 3.64, 3.48) 7. Complete the following part of a life table : x wx wm & kk & 15 : : = 100, 7 é 16 * - - 90 - a 7 7 rf - 78 - - 18 - ° - 63 E 2 19 : 7 55 : . (Hint: dy = ky - kee then find the value of q,)) = 60000, 59140, 58383, 542, 1227, 973, 769, 604; 1736, 1384, 1100, 871, 686; Tx = (dy = 10, 12, 15, 8; g, = 0.1, 0.13, 0.19, 0.13, 0.13; p, = 0.9, 0.87, 081 | 0.87, 0.87; @, = 43.39, 48.99, 59.54, 67.13) 8. Complete the following part of a life table : x % Pe \ tT, a 00:0 = =~ = 18,000 Zo aa 27 = 0.904 % 2 i s 28 - 0,899 si 2 : wi 95, 84, 70, 59, 51; T, = 4000, 3905, 3821, 3751, 369%