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2022 Typhoon WJung 배포용
2022 Typhoon WJung 배포용
22 June 2022
Introduction
Summary
Korea
Viet Nam
Philippines
Typhoon is one of the most devastating natural disasters and cause more loss of
human life and property than other natural disasters especially when the typhoon
makes landfall.
The location of dangerous area depends on the location and track of typhoon center.
Thus detecting and tracking their exact locations are crucial for operational weather
forecasts.
The radar network of KMA is useful to track the center of typhoon. Because,
- installed in coastal area and top of mountains with 240 km range.
- observe using 11 S-band and 1 C-band Doppler radars.
- have high spatial(250m) and temporal(5 minutes) resolution.
Due to the influence of climate change, the frequency of typhoon effects on the
Korean Peninsula has increased over last 10 years.
Introduction
Summary
Vr zero-line(0m/s) Vr zero-line(0m/s)
Reflectivity
(center of spiral pattern) Vr zero-line(0m/s)
● JNI
JNI GSN
GSN
Analysis Data
- Variables : site Radial velocity (NoQC PPI0), site/composite Reflectivity
Analysis Data
- Variables : site Radial velocity (NoQC PPI0), site/composite Reflectivity
2018.08.24. 2012.08.30.
15:00 2018.10.06. 21:00
15:00
2012.08.30.00:00
2018.08.23.00:00
2018.10.05.21:00
2018.08.24.15:00
enter Inland
near
the Coast
2018.08.23.00:00
South Sea
Relative location
15 KST 24
Biased to the West
15 KST 24
21 KST 23
Complex wind distribution
18 KST 23 21 KST 23
over the mountainous area
18 KST 23
15 KST 23
Weak rainfall and wind
15 KST 23
12 KST 23
12 KST 23 09 KST 23
06 KST 23
09 KST 23
06 KST 23 03 KST 23
Difference in obs. altitude
03 KST 23 between 2 radars
00 KST 23
00 KST 23
Relative location
15 KST 06
15 KST 06 Biased to the North
00 KST 06
00 KST 06
21 KST 05
21 KST 05
Relative location
21 KST 30
Biased to the North
SBS ● 21 KST 30
00 KST 30
Lack of inland (mountains)
observation radar in 2012
- ME 2 sites (BSL, SBS)
- Bad quality of Vr (MYN, PSN)
Mean Flow
(moving direction) + +
VM = 0
WS
+ +
+
VR
27.6˚
Section 3
Section 2
▲ Section 1
- avg. Location difference 0.03˚, Angle difference +55.6˚,
Section 1 - typhoon propagation speed 18 km/h,
● Section 2
- avg. Location difference 0.20˚, Angle difference -104.4˚
- typhoon propagation speed 25 km/h
● Section 3
- avg. Location difference 0.40˚, Angle difference -105.4˚
- typhoon propagation speed 37 km/h
Section 2
Section 1
▲ Section 1
- avg. Location difference 0.23˚, Angle difference -85.0˚
- typhoon propagation speed 32 km/h
● Section 2
- avg. Location difference 0.18˚, Angle difference -122.7˚
- typhoon propagation speed 37 km/h
Section 2
Section 1
▲ Section 1
- avg. Location difference 0.33˚, Angle difference -72.3˚
- typhoon propagation speed 40 km/h
● Section 2
- avg. Location difference 0.27˚, Angle difference -71.7˚
- typhoon propagation speed 54 km/h
No echo
to the south
+
YIT
+
* IIA +
YIT
- Can be used for analysis of the center of typhoon over the sea close to coast.
Introduction
Summary
Due to the influence of climate change, the frequency of typhoon effects on the
Korean Peninsula has increased over last 10 years.
Typhoon can cause loss of human life and property when a typhoon makes landfall.
Thus detecting and tracking their exact locations are crucial for operational
weather forecasts.
In this study,
- An objective analysis system was developed to automatically detect the center of
typhoon and calculate additional information.
- The accuracy of this system was verified for 9 typhoon cases(2019~2020).
Basic technique
- Detecting geometric center of typhoon(Chang et al., 2009)
- Based on the “EYE shape” of typhoon in radar data
※ Assume that the “EYE” of typhoon is a perfect Circle
- Analyze the radius and center of EYE using radar reflectivity and vorticity
(Jung et al., 2020)
TRASCER(Typhoon
T R
tRacking A
Automatic S
System for C
Center of E
Eye using R
Radar)
- Analysis Domain
1h-interval 10min-interval 2. TY center Detecting
1. TY Monitoring
Long-distance(480km) composite area
Create TY list (the lowest elev. Angle)
in this year Anal. area
Current alerted TY
Failed to detect
TY direction, speed
(1h-, 3h-averaged)
No reflectivity data
WRITE TY inform.
Yes •
Yes
X0 , Y 0 , R0 ,
Final location : Xc=Xm, Yc=Ym and = -0.1 (X0, Y0)
Make Output
New location(lat/lon), Vmax, Location(lat/lon) of Vmax, R, ERE
Cases
- 2019(5) - 2020(4)
#5 DANAS #5 JANGMI
#8 FRANCISCO #8 BAVI
#13 LINGLING #9 MAYSAK
#17 TAPAH #10 HAISHEN
#18 MITAG
Analysis method
- Select result (GOOD or BAD) by Location Difference
Reference : The location of the announced track from KMA (3 or 6h-interval)
Location Difference : between reference and TRASCER results
Loc. Diff. < 0.4° : GOOD(valid result) / Loc. Diff. ≥ 0.4° : BAD
- Calculate Detection rate and Location difference for valid result of each cases
June 22th, 2022 2022 International Education (Weather Radar course)
Result – Case study Auto-Method (1)
Effect of topography(○) : WIS_DBZ > 480_DBZ Obs. Edge region(○) : WIS_DBZ < 480_DBZ
Biased EYE area(○) Effect of Topography(NO eye)(○) Det. rate 6.3%↑, Loc. Diff. 0.05°↓
WIS Det. rate[%] Loc. Diff.[˚] 480 Det. rate[%] Loc. Diff.[˚]
DBZ 48.0 0.19 GOOD 40.1 0.20
VOR 63.0 0.21
Loc. Diff. TOTAL 85.7 0.41
0.20° → 0.18°
Not clear EYE(Southern part Echo X) Southern sea of Jeju : Det. rate ↑
Using vorticity, det. rate > 60%, Loc. Diff ~ 0.2° Yellow sea : increase BAD result
Summary
- An objective analysis system(TRASCER) was developed to automatically detect the
center of typhoon.
Future plan
- Optimization of the analysis altitude over the WISSDOM domain
Introduction
Summary
Basic technique
- Image processing technique, ‘Optical flow(motion estimation)’ method
- Based on computing estimates of the motion of the image intensities
over time in a video or two image frames
- Analyze the vectors and center of typhoon using 2 radar reflectivity images
+ dt
ACTION(Automatic
A C
Center detection of T
Typhoon using IImage processing based on O
Operational radar N
Network)
Vector calculation
1. Convert to grayscale image 2. Calculate motion vectors 3. Interpolation vectors
(Farneback’s Dense Optical Flow) (only for grids between vectors)
Assumption
- Relative vectors can form (concentric) circles
- The left normal of the cyclonic vectors will be directed at “a point”
(in the Southern hemisphere, right normal)
6. Create and Extend normal vectors 7. Create intersections of the extended 8. Calculate the maximum density point
(rotate vector 90° counterclockwise) normal vectors of the intersections
Cases in 2019
- #8 FRANCISCO, #13 LINGLING
Detection rate [%] Location Differences [°] Detection rate [%] Location Differences [°]
Total E ≤ 0.4 E ≤ 0.3 E ≤ 0.2 Total E ≤ 0.4 E ≤ 0.3 E ≤ 0.2 Total E ≤ 0.4 E ≤ 0.3 E ≤ 0.2 Total E ≤ 0.4 E ≤ 0.3 E ≤ 0.2
100 91.7 74.2 54.4 0.216 0.193 0.157 0.124 100 87.0 75.9 47.1 0.244 0.188 0.164 0.115
Cases in 2019
- #18 MITAG
Cases in 2020
- #8 BAVI, #10 HAISHEN
Detection rate [%] Location Differences [°] Detection rate [%] Location Differences [°]
Total E ≤ 0.4 E ≤ 0.3 E ≤ 0.2 Total E ≤ 0.4 E ≤ 0.3 E ≤ 0.2 Total E ≤ 0.4 E ≤ 0.3 E ≤ 0.2 Total E ≤ 0.4 E ≤ 0.3 E ≤ 0.2
100 96.4 88.4 68.7 0.175 0.163 0.146 0.119 100 79.7 59.0 35.7 0.268 0.22 0.175 0.126
Cases in 2020
- #9 MAYSAK
Advantages of ACTION
- 100% detection rate (if there are regular radar images)
Disadvantages of ACTION
Location differences may increase
- If (at least) one site image is absent to be used for composite
- When the typhoon is located near the edge of the radar observation area
Accuracy determinants
1. Uniform radar (site) images with a regular time interval
2. Clear shape characteristics of typhoon : Circle, Arc
3. No Topographic effects after typhoon landing