IDFC First Bank Ltd.

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 IDFC First Bank Ltd.
Industry LTP Recommendation Base Case Fair Value Bull Case Fair Value Time Horizon
BFSI – Pvt. Bank Rs 30.6 Buy on dips to Rs 26.5 and add more on dips to Rs 23.5 Rs 31.5 Rs 36.5 2 quarters

HDFC Scrip Code IDFCIR Our Take:

BSE Code 539437 IDFC First Bank has been focusing on building a strong liability franchise and growing its retail assets which is evident from the increasing
NSE Code IDFCFIRSTB
CASA ratio (grown from 12% in FY17 to 33% as on Q1FY21) and higher share of retail loans (increased from 35% in Q3FY19 to 54% as on
Bloomberg IDFCFB IN
Q1FY21) in the loan book. It is also aggressively expanding its footprint with a target of opening 600-700 branches in 5 years from the time
CMP Oct 30, 2020 30.6
of its merger with Capital First (Dec-2018). The bank has identified and made significant provisions against its legacy stressed assets and
Equity Capital (cr) 5672.4
Face Value (Rs) 10 future provisioning requirements are likely to moderate. Loan book under moratorium stood at 28% at the end of Q1FY21.
Eq Shares O/S (cr) 567.2
Market Cap (Rs cr) 17357.4 Over the last two quarters the bank has returned to profitability despite providing ~Rs 600cr towards Covid related stress. The bank’s
Adj. Book Value (Rs) 30.2 strengthening its franchise with increasing proportion of granular loans offering strong pricing power, adequate capital buffers and
Avg.52 Wk Volume 3,44,80,000 experienced management are likely to drive performance in the coming years.
52 Week High 47.95
52 Week Low 17.65 We expect advances to grow at CAGR of 16% over FY20-FY22 driven mainly by strong growth in retail advances. Recent capital raising of
~Rs 2000cr would provide support to absorb any Covid related losses and minimize shocks.
Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)
Promoters 40.00 Valuations & Recommendation:
Institutions 26.95 IDFC First Bank is moving from wholesale borrowing and wholesale lending to retail borrowing and retail lending over time. How smoothly
Non Institutions 33.05
this transition will happen without facing too many hiccups by way of asset quality issues or slow growth in advances will be keenly
Total 100.0
watched. This will influence the rise in return ratios from the current low levels. This will also determine the speed with with the stock
could get rerated. We feel the base case fair value of the stock is Rs 31.5 (0.95x FY22E ABV) and bull case fair value is Rs 36.5 (1.1x FY22E
Fundamental Research Analyst
ABV). Investors can buy the stock on dips to Rs 26.5 (0.80x FY22E ABV) and add further on declines to Rs 23.5 (0.70x FY22E ABV). At the
Atul Karwa
LTP of Rs 30.6, it quotes at 0.92x FY22E ABV.
atul.karwa@hdfcsec.com

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IDFC First Bank Ltd.
Financial Summary
Particulars (Rs cr) Q2FY21 Q2FY20 YoY-% Q1FY21 QoQ-% FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
NII 1626 1174 38.4 1564 4.0 3199 5635 6227 6817
PPoP 892 318 180.6 520 71.5 -1836 1937 3262 3529
PAT 94 -617 -115.2 72 30.8 -1943 -2864 1171 1291
EPS (Rs) 0.2 -1.3 -112.8 0.1 10.9 -4.1 -6.0 2.1 2.3
P/E (x) NA NA 14.9 13.5
P/ABV (x) 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9
RoAA (%) -1.3 -1.8 0.8 0.8
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)
Recent Triggers
Q1FY21 financials
IDFC First Bank reported a 38% yoy growth in net interest income in Q1FY21 to Rs 1626cr driven by a 26% increase in retail book. Net
Interest Margin (NIM) also improved to 4.53% in Q1FY21 compared to 3.01 % in Q1FY20 and 4.24% sequentially. Total income grew 42%
yoy to Rs 2111cr as the bank had treasury gains of Rs 337cr as compared to a loss of Rs 10cr in Q1FY20. Pre-Provision profit (PPOP) grew
by 181% yoy to Rs 892cr. The bank has reported profits for the second quarter after six quarters of losses as provisioning requirement has
moderated. PAT stood at Rs 94cr as compared to Rs 72cr in Q4FY20.

Asset quality witnessed improvement on a sequential basis with GNPA/NNPA at 1.99%/0.51% compared to 2.60%/0.99% in Q4FY20. Retail
book remained robust with stable asset quality at 0.87%/0.24%. However, the improvement is largely attributed to moratorium provided
to customers. Bank offered moratorium to 28% of its customers by value compared to 35% in last quarter. Provisions for the quarter stood
at Rs 764cr including Rs375cr Covid related provisions. PCR and CRAR for the quarter stood at 75% and 15% respectively.

At the end of Q1FY21 total funded assets stood at Rs 1.04 lakh crore with retail accounting for 54% of the loan book and wholesale book
contributing 46%. Retail loan book grew by 26% yoy to Rs 0.56 lakh crore while the wholesale book de-grew 28% to Rs 0.38 lakh crore. The
bank opened 39 branches during the quarter taking the total branch network to 503 branches.

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IDFC First Bank Ltd.
Long term Triggers
Diversified loan book with increasing retail loans share
IDFC Bank’s stated strategy has been aggressive retailisation of its advance book in order to achieve diversification of risk, higher average
asset yields, and therefore, enhanced earning power in order to acquire more customers and invest in building a strong liabilities
franchise. It had acquired Grama Vidiyal with this logic which has been renamed to IDFC Bharat and seamlessly integrated into its
operations. It was earlier in talks with the Shriram Group. But after that deal fell through it had initiated and finalised merger with Capital
First in Dec-2018.

Increasing share of Retail loans Breakup of Funded Assets

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

According to the arrangement, Mr V Vaidyanathan, the erstwhile chairman and managing director of Capital First, succeeded Mr Rajiv Lall
as the MD and CEO of the combined entity. Further, Mr Lall took the role of non-executive chairman of IDFC Bank and guide the transition
process. Mr Lall stepped down from the post of Chairman in Sept 2020.
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IDFC First Bank Ltd.
Since its merger with Capital First the funded assets portfolio of the bank have remained largely flat. However, the share of mortgage and
consumer loans have increased from 25% to 38% while that of corporate and infrastructure loans have declined from 54% to 36%.

Increasing CASA share in IDFC First Bank to aid margin expansion

IDFC being an erstwhile infrastructure finance company, liabilities in IDFC Bank primarily comprised of higher cost infrastructure and other
bonds. Post the demerger IDFC Bank has started building its low cost CASA deposit base which has grown from below 1% in FY16 to 33.6%
in Q1FY21. The merger with Capital First has given the bank access to a large base of retail customers which is driving the strong accretion
in CASA. With accelerated branch expansion, we expect CASA share to improve to 38% by FY22E. Higher retail deposits are likely to reduce
the cost of funds for the bank and give impetus to NIM expansion. The bank is targeting to achieve a CASA ratio of between 40-50% over
the next 5 years.

Strong growth in CASA share of deposits

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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IDFC First Bank Ltd.
Higher retail share to drive overall yields
IDFC First Bank’s earns yields of ~16% from its retail lending operations while that of the wholesale book generates ~10% dragging down
its overall yield to around 12-13%. Going forward, the bank is focusing on increasing its retail assets which would benefit the bank as the
proportion of retail funded assets in the total advances increases and the bank’s overall income & yields also increase driving the spreads
higher as well as the NIMs. The bank plans to expand the NIM to about 5.0% - 5.5% in the next few years based on better cost of funds and
carefully selecting the product segments where it has strong proven capabilities over the years.

Retail advance driving expansion in NIMs

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

NIMs of standalone IDFC Bank has improved from 1.56% in Sep’18 (prior to the merger in Dec ’18) to current 4.53% as on Q1FY21. Post-
merger the NIM had improved to 2.94%. Consistent and a gradual shift towards retail business is a key growth driver of NIM of IDFC Bank.

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IDFC First Bank Ltd.
Expanding branch network at a rapid pace
In order to grow Retail Deposits and CASA, the bank had planned to set up 600-700 more bank branches in 5 years from the branch count
of 206 (as of 31 Dec 2018) at the time of merger. This would be suitably supported by the attractive product propositions and other
associated services as well as cross selling opportunities. As of Q1FY21 the bank had a network of 503 branches across India. It has added
222 branches in FY20 and 39 branches in Q1FY21 at a time when other banks are looking to postpone capex on account of the Covid-19
pandemic.

Cost of funds to moderate reducing pressure on NIMs

Diversification of Liabilities in favour of the retail deposit (including CASA and Retail Term Deposits) is essential for availing the low cost
and sustainable funding source to fund the growth of the Bank. The Bank is targeting to increasing its sourcing from CASA deposits and
retail term deposits to over 50% in the next 5-6 years and set up a trajectory to reach 75% thereafter. The Bank would be retiring the high
cost borrowings as and when they mature resulting in improvement in NIMs.

Comfortable asset quality levels

While provisions on watch list accounts have increased post-merger, gross NPAs percentage has remained stable. The GNPA/NNPA ratio of
the bank stood at 2.0%/0.5% at the end of Q1FY21. The bank has reported provision coverage ratio of 75% as Q1FY21 compared to 48% in
FY19. Slippage ratio for FY20 stood at 3.08% compared to 3.32% for FY19. Net stressed asset (NNPA + Net Standard Restructured assets +
Net Security Receipts) to net worth was ~13% in FY20 (PY: 14%).

The bank has taken huge provisions against its legacy stressed wholesale assets. With the bulk of the stress already identified and provided
for the bank is showing improvements. The pace of NPA increment and provisions has slowed down. All these factors could lead to
rerating of the bank which is expected to perform better going forward.

With respect to the COVID-19 situation, about 28% of the customers by value have availed the moratorium benefit as on June 30, 2020,
down from the level of 35% in March 2020. The level of moratorium availed by the bank’s customers is at the higher end within the Private
Banks peer group. The bank made a COVID-19 related provision of Rs 225cr for Q4FY20, and a further provision of Rs 375cr for Q1FY21
taking the total Covid related provision to Rs 600cr.

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IDFC First Bank Ltd.
The bank plans to focus on granular retail asset segments. Over the medium term, the share of the retail portfolio is targeted to increase
to around two-thirds of the portfolio. However, given the intense competition, ability to scale up this book while maintaining asset quality
and profitability needs to be seen. Going forward, bank’s ability to limit credit costs and improvement in asset quality with no major
slippages on account of COVID-19 related disruption will remain a key rating monitorable.

In the middle of this COVID-19 situation, IDFC First has raised Rs 2000cr equity in June-2020 at a price `Rs. 23.19 per share which has
improved its capital adequacy to around 15% providing a very comfortable capital position as compared to the regulatory limits.

Asset quality on improving trajectory

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

Consistent focus on improvement in efficiency and better asset quality along with higher NIM’s likely to improve return ratios
IDFC First Bank aims to improve its operating performance by strong focus on enhancing its efficiency. It aims to reduce its current C/I
ratio (cost to income ratio) of 73% as on FY20 to 50-55% over next 5 years. As per our expectations, we expect a gradual improvement in
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IDFC First Bank Ltd.
C/I ratio mainly due to constant expansion in the branch franchise network. Lower C/I ratio along with improvement in NIMs and better
asset quality could boost return ratios.

Cost-Income ratio to moderate RoA and RoE to improve

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

Experienced management
The bank is led by CEO and Managing Director, Mr. V.Vaidyanathan, former Chairman & MD of Capital First Limited (CFL), who has over 25
years of experience working with organizations like Citibank and ICICI Group. He was earlier the Executive Director on the Board of ICICI
Bank and was also MD and CEO of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company. He has over 25 years of experience in the financial services
sector. The Board of Directors also has nominees from Government of India and IDFC Limited along with six independent directors. The
key management people in the operating team individually have extensive and relevant experience of more than 20 years each in financial
services sector.

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IDFC First Bank Ltd.
What could go wrong
Slowdown in infrastructure sector could result in higher NPAs for the company
Being an infrastructure financing institution in the past, bulk of the outstanding loans given by the company is towards infrastructure
projects. A significant number of infrastructure projects are stuck due to regulatory hurdles like lack of approvals and delays in land
acquisition. Although IDFC Bank has made provisions for stressed assets any further deterioration in asset quality could impact earnings of
the company. Slippage ratio for the Bank has remained high at 3.1% bringing pressure on PAT and results in lower valuation.

Slower traction in building retail deposits could result in higher borrowing costs
Bulk of the funding of the bank was through loans and debentures. Post the conversion to a banking entity, IDFC has been able to raise low
cost retail deposits to lower its blended cost of borrowings driven by accelerated expansion of branches. However, slower traction in retail
deposits will result in elevated borrowing costs. The Bank offers higher interest on savings account (@6/7% p.a.) vs 2.5-3% offered by
others. Whenever the Bank brings down the interest rate, it could see slowdown in deposit accretion / reversal.

Operating expenses may be higher as the bank builds its network

As the company goes about setting up its network, operating expenses are likely to be higher in the initial period. Cost/Income ratio stood
at 74% in FY20. The management is targeting to bring it down to 50-55% over the next few years.

Shift to retail deposits towards large private sector banks

Post Covid-19 there has been a strong wave of shift in retail deposits towards large private sector banks. IDFC Bank in its journey of having
a large retail liability franchise might face huge competition from larger private sector banks.

About the company

Headquartered in Mumbai, IDFC Bank is a universal bank, offering financial solutions through its nationwide branches, internet and
mobile. Carved out of IDFC Ltd, it was incorporated in Oct-2014 and it is a subsidiary of the erstwhile infrastructure lending institution IDFC
Ltd. Using technology and a service-oriented approach, IDFC Bank will focus on serving the rural underserved communities and the self-
employed, while continuing to support the country’s infrastructure sector. With best-in-class corporate governance, rigorous risk
management, experienced management and a diversified team, IDFC Bank is uniquely positioned to meet the aspirations of its customers
and stakeholders. The Bank has merged with Capital First to form IDFC First Bank.

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IDFC First Bank Ltd.
As of Q1FY21 the bank had a network of 503 branches and 417 ATMs with total business of 1.7 lakh crore and a customer base of over
0.9cr.

Branches and Business growth trend

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

Peer Comparison
CMP Mcap NII PAT EPS ABV P/E P/ABV RoA NNPA
FY20
(Rs) (Rs cr) (Rs cr) (Rs cr) (Rs) (Rs) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Federal Bank 50.5 10064 4648.9 1542.8 7.7 64.7 6.5 0.8 0.9 1.31
RBL Bank 174.4 8877 3629.6 505.7 9.9 184.5 17.6 0.9 0.6 3.62
DCB Bank 76.9 2386 1264.9 337.9 10.9 93.1 7.1 0.8 0.9 1.16
IDFC First Bank 30.6 17357 5635.3 -2864.2 -6.0 30.2 NA 1.0 -1.8 0.94

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 IDFC First Bank Ltd.
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet
(Rs cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E As at March (Rs cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Interest Income 8930 11948 15867 15525 16458 Return Ratios (%)
Interest Expenses 7132 8749 10232 9298 9641 Calc. Yield on adv 9.3 11.3 13.5 13.2 12.9
Net Interest Income 1798 3199 5635 6227 6817 Calc. Cost of funds 7.3 7.1 7.8 7.4 7.1
Non interest income 1118 852 1722 1866 2161 Calc. NIMs 1.7 2.4 3.6 4.6 4.8
Operating Income 2916 4051 7357 8093 8978 RoAE 5.7 -11.6 -17.1 6.9 6.8
Operating Expenses 1653 5887 5421 4831 5450 RoAA 0.7 -1.3 -1.8 0.8 0.8
PPoP 1263 -1836 1937 3262 3529 Asset Quality Ratios (%)
Prov & Cont 236 1460 4315 1658 1760 GNPA 3.3 2.4 2.6 1.9 1.7
Profit Before Tax 1028 -3294 -2378 1604 1769 NNPA 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5
Tax 168 -1351 486 433 478 PCR 49.9 48.2 64.5 63.7 69.4
PAT 860 -1943 -2864 1171 1291 Growth Ratios (%)
Advances 5.6 65.4 -0.8 18.0 14.0
BALANCE SHEET Deposits 19.9 46.2 -7.6 22.6 30.7
(Rs cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E NII -10.9 77.9 76.2 10.5 9.5
Share Capital 3404 4782 4810 5672 5672 PPoP -27.9 -245.3 NA 68.4 8.2
Reserves & Surplus 11852 13378 10533 12841 13849 PAT -15.9 -325.9 47.4 NA 10.3
Shareholder funds 15257 18159 15343 18513 19521 Valuation Ratios (x)
Deposits 48198 70479 65108 79829 104299 EPS (Rs) 2.5 -4.1 -6.0 2.1 2.3
Borrowings 57287 69983 57397 50501 38573 P/E (x) 12.2 NA NA 14.9 13.5
Other Liab & Prov. 5966 8667 11428 4981 521 Adj. BVPS (Rs) 42.2 35.7 30.2 31.4 33.3
SOURCES OF FUNDS 126708 167289 149275 153825 162914 P/ABV (x) 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9
Cash & Bank Balance 4892 9567 4191 4747 5181 Dividend per share (Rs) 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
Investment 61202 58475 45405 35351 28786 Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
Advances 52165 86302 85595 101003 115143 Other Ratios (%)
Fixed Assets 784 950 1038 982 1123 Cost-Income 56.7 145.3 73.7 59.7 60.7
Other Assets 7666 11994 13047 11742 12682 Credit-Deposit 108.2 122.5 131.5 126.5 110.4
TOTAL ASSETS 126708 167289 149275 153825 162914

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IDFC First Bank Ltd.
Price Chart

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 IDFC First Bank Ltd.
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