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The Oxford Handbook of Banking Third Edition Allen N Berger Full Chapter
The Oxford Handbook of Banking Third Edition Allen N Berger Full Chapter
The Oxford Handbook of Banking Third Edition Allen N Berger Full Chapter
t h e ox f o r d h a n d b o o k o f
BA N K I NG
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BANKING
Third Edition
Edited by
ALLEN N. BERGER,
PHILIP MOLYNEUX,
and
JOHN O.S. WILSON
1
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1
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Preface
Ten years on from the Global Financial Crisis, banks are still adapting to new, more
constrained operating and regulatory environments. Banks now hold more capital and
liquidity than they did prior to the crisis, and have had regulatory limits placed upon
riskier activities. Large banks have reduced their international activities in order to
focus on domestic and select overseas markets.
In the US, Europe, and elsewhere banks are now subject to: new capital, liquidity,
and tax regulations; resolution regimes; stress tests; bail-in mechanisms; corporate
governance; executive compensation and disclosure rules; along with enhanced super-
visory oversight, particularly for the thirty globally systemically important banks, the
G-SIBs. FinTech developments are creating opportunities for both incumbent banks
and new competitors in a diverse array of areas ranging from online banking, robo
advisory services and distributed ledger technology (Blockchain) to marketplace or
peer-to-peer lending platforms, as well as InsureTech and RegTech. There are now over
2,000 cryptocurrencies in existence, the most well known being Bitcoin with a 54 percent
share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. These developments present
banks with competitive challenges from the entry of technology firms and opportunities
to redesign business models, offer new services, and improve efficiency. For example,
legacy systems are likely to be gradually replaced with more technology-based systems
using distributed-ledger technology and Blockchain.
The more competitive environment and stricter regulation have affected bank profits.
Banks have to spend more on regulatory compliance and organizational restructuring.
As of this writing, many large European banks are generating single digit returns that
often do not cover their cost of capital, leading to a destruction of shareholder value. The
sluggish performance of the European economy following the European Sovereign
Debt Crisis presents further challenges. The Eurozone set its plans out to create a
European Banking Union in 2012 in order to establish a more robust framework for
dealing with troubled banks, although parts of the new regime (including a Euro-wide
deposit insurance scheme) are yet to be fully implemented.
Many of the aforementioned pressures continue to have similar influences on bank-
ing business globally. The slowdown in economic growth, the low (and in some cases
negative) interest rate environment, coupled with regulatory measures designed to
improve safety and soundness have generally acted as a drag on bank performance.
Markets remain volatile and both banks and regulators continue to grapple with the
complexities of measuring and managing a host of systemic as well as bank-level risks.
Of particular recent interest has been the accounting treatment of credit risk indicators
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viii preface
such as loan loss provisions and reserves and the fair valuation of financial instruments,
as well as issues related to the transparency of off-balance-sheet activities. Uncertainty
continues to heighten. Trade wars, Brexit, Euro area challenges (such as Italian indebt-
edness), the possible end of the bull run in equity markets, the slowdown in emerging
markets (China in particular), political polarization (both domestic and international),
Middle East tensions, and other factors all add to uncertainty and a less favorable global
operating environment for banks.
This Third Edition seeks to evaluate many of the aforementioned areas and is a
substantial update on the Second Edition. There are new chapters on community and
mutual banking; Islamic banking; microfinance; modern central banking; bank bail-ins
and bailouts; deposit insurance; bank capital; financial literacy and consumer protection;
and banking in China, and Australia and New Zealand. Developments in FinTech are
discussed in the chapters on small business lending, payments, and financial innovation.
General themes relating to the impact of the new regulatory environment and the
impact of banks on the real economy are also substantially covered in specific chapters,
as well as significant updates to the other topics covered in the Second Edition.
Allen N. Berger
Philip Molyneux
and John O.S. Wilson
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Acknowledgements
First, and most important, we wish to thank the contributors to the Handbook. We are
delighted to have brought together such an outstanding set of research experts from aca-
demic and policy arenas across Europe, North America, South America, Asia, and
Australasia. These experts have shown a high level of commitment and perseverance to
the project from beginning to end. Without their expertise, dedication, and efficiency in
producing scholarly banking chapters this Handbook would never have been possible.
The production of this Handbook has also relied heavily on the exceptional enthusi-
asm and commitment of Oxford University Press, most notably Adam Swallow, pub-
lisher for Economics and Finance, who was crucial in helping us kick-start the project.
Oxford University Press delegates and a number of anonymous referees also played an
important role in advising on the shape of the Handbook.
We would like to thank and acknowledge Verity Rimmer and also Katie Bishop, whose
advice was invaluable and who was always on hand to help and worked closely with us
throughout the entire process. The team in New York also played a valuable role, and so
we’d like to thank Viviana Lachmund and Laura Heston. Manikandan Chandrasekaran
and Jen Hinchliffe also played a crucial role toward the end of the project. We would
also like to acknowledge the support of our home institutions: the Moore School of
Business at the University of South Carolina; the College of Business Administration at
the University of Sharjah; and the Centre for Responsible Banking & Finance at the
Management School, University of St Andrews. We would especially like to thank
Dorothy Campbell who provided excellent assistance in preparing the final manuscript
prior to submission.
During the writing of this Handbook, Fernando José Cardim de Carvalho, Emeritus
Professor at UFRJ (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) and Senior Fellow at the
Levy Economics Institute, Bard College in New York passed away on the 16th of May,
2018. He was 64 years old. Fernando was one of Brazil’s most revered economists.
A leader of the post-Keynesian economists in Brazil, he was an associate editor of the
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics. Among his many published works, he authored
Mr Keynes and the Post Keynesians (Edward Elgar, 1992), and Liquidity Preference and
Monetary Economics (Routledge, 2015). Fernando was an active and leading voice in
discussions about money and financial systems and was writing until the time of his
passing. Fernando wrote the excellent section on Latin American Development Banks:
Some New Developments or an Impasse? in Chapter 37 of this Handbook, Banking in
Latin America: Developments and Prospects. As always, Fernando provided valuable
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x acknowledgements
insights, expert analysis, and perfect context, which is indicative of his great intellect
and contribution to knowledge.
Finally, we would like to thank our families and friends for their encouragement and
patience over the last decade while completing the three editions of the Handbook.
Their support is always very much appreciated.
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Contents
List of Figuresxv
List of Tablesxix
List of Abbreviationsxxiii
List of Contributorsxxxi
PA RT I T H E T H E ORY OF BA N K I N G
2. The Roles of Banks in Financial Systems 39
Franklin Allen, Elena Carletti, and Xian Gu
PA RT I I AC T I V I T I E S A N D P E R F OR M A N C E
8. The Performance of Financial Institutions: Modeling,
Evidence, and some Policy Implications 229
Joseph P. Hughes and Loretta J. Mester
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xii contents
PA RT I I I R E G U L ATORY A N D P OL IC Y
P E R SP E C T I V E S
18. Modern Central Banking 573
Frederic S. Mishkin
19. Lender of Last Resort: A New Role for the Old Instrument 602
Xavier Freixas and Bruno M. Parigi
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contents xiii
PA RT I V M AC ROE C ON OM IC
P E R SP E C T I V E S
26. Systemic Risk in Banking after the Great Financial Crisis 847
Olivier de Bandt and Philipp Hartmann
xiv contents
PA RT V BA N K I N G SYS T E M S
A RO U N D T H E WOR L D
31. Banking in the United States 977
Robert DeYoung
Index 1215
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List of Figures
xvi list of figures
list of figures xvii
xviii list of figures
List of Tables
4.1 Size and Complexity of G-SIBs, 2018 vs. 2013 (G-SIBs Ranked by Total
Assets 2017) 101
4.2 Geographical Diversification of G-SIBs and Subsidiaries in OFCs,
2018 vs. 2013 (G-SIBs Ranked by Number of Countries in 2018) 105
4.3 Breakdown by Industry of Subsidiaries of G-SIBs, October 2018
(in bold) and May 2013 107
4.4 Number of Subsidiaries of US G-SIBs According to the FED/NIC
Data Set, 2002–18 112
4.5 Public Sections of Resolution Plans of the 8 US G-SIBs (July 2017):
Key Selected Information 126
6.1 List of G-SIBs, November 2017 176
7.1 Countercyclical Capital Buffers 204
7.2 G-SIB Surcharges 206
10.1 Payment Instrument Use, 2016 289
11.1 Cooperative Banks and National Associations for Cooperative Banks 330
11.2 Institution-Type Composition by Size Category 343
12.1 Differences between Islamic and Conventional Banking Systems 367
12.2 Summary of Major Sharia-Compliant Financial Contracts 368
12.3 Stylized Balance Sheet of a Conventional Bank 370
12.4 Stylized Balance Sheet of an Islamic Bank 371
12.5 Comparing Islamic and Conventional Banks 373
12.6 Comparing Islamic and Conventional Banks—Controlling for Bank
Characteristics374
12.7 Comparing Islamic and Conventional Banks During Crises 378
12.8 The Effects of Islamic Banks on Bank Liquidity Creation 384
12.9 Islamic Bank and Stock Illiquidity 385
13.1 Impact of Business Training on Business Outcomes 423
16.1 US Securitization Issuance 508
17.1 A Stylized View of the Structural Characteristics of Credit
Intermediation541
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xx list of tables
list of tables xxi
List of Abbreviations
xxiv list of abbreviations
list of abbreviations xxv
xxvi list of abbreviations
list of abbreviations xxvii
IO industrial organization
IRA individual retirement accounts
IRB internal ratings-based
ITT intention-to-treat
JA Bank Japan Agriculture Bank
JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation
JFC Japan Finance Corporation
KYC know your customer
KYCC know your customer’s customer
LATE local average treatment effects
LGFV local government financing vehicle
LCBOs large and complex banking organizations
LCR liquidity coverage ratio
LGD loss given default
LIBOR London Interbank Offered Rate
LLP loan loss provisioning
LMI liquidity mismatch index
LOLR lender of last resort
LPFC limited-purpose finance company
LSAP Large-Scale Asset Purchase
LSIs Less Significant Institutions
LTRO Long-Term Refinancing Operation
LTV loan-to-value
LVG leverage
M maturity
M&A mergers and acquisitions
MAC material adverse change
MBS mortgage-backed securities
MENA Middle East and North Africa
MERS Mortgage Electronic Registration System
MES marginal expected shortfall
MFIs microfinance institutions
ML machine learning
MMDA money market deposit account
MMIFF Money Market Investment Fund Facility
MMFs money market funds
MMMFs money market mutual funds
MoF Ministry of Finance
MRO Main Refinancing Operations
MTN medium-term note
NBCI non-bank credit intermediation
NCOF net cash outflows
NEIO new empirical industrial organization
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xxviii list of abbreviations
list of abbreviations xxix
xxx list of abbreviations
List of Contributors
The Editors
Allen N. Berger is the H. Montague Osteen, Jr., Professor in Banking and Finance and
Ph.D coordinator of the Finance Department, Darla Moore School of Business;
Carolina Distinguished Professor, University of South Carolina; Senior Fellow, Wharton
Financial Institutions Center; and Fellow, European Banking Center. He also currently
serves on the editorial boards of seven professional finance and economics journals. He
is co-author of Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises (2016, Elsevier) and is
currently co-authoring TARP and other Bank Bailouts and Bail-Ins around the World:
Connecting Wall Street, Main Street, and the Financial System (2019, Elsevier). He has
published well over 100 professional articles including papers in top finance journals.
His research has been cited over 70,000 times according to Google Scholar, and he has
given invited keynote addresses on five continents. He was Senior Economist from 1989
to 2008 and Economist from 1982–9 at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System. He received a Ph.D in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley
in 1983, and a B.A. in Economics from Northwestern University in 1976.
Philip Molyneux is Dean of the College of Business Administration at the University of
Sharjah (in the UAE). His main area of research is on the structure and efficiency of
banking markets and he has published widely in this area. Recent publications appear
in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Journal of Financial Intermediation, Journal
of Banking & Finance and the Review of Finance. He has co-written/edited over thirty-five
books and is also the series editor of the Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and
Financial Institutions—with over 135 books in the series to date. In the past, Philip has
acted as a consultant to the New York Federal Reserve Bank, World Bank, European
Commission, UK Treasury, Citibank Private Bank, Barclays Wealth, McKinsey, Credit
Suisse and various other international banks and consulting firms.
John O.S. Wilson is Professor of Banking and Finance and Director of the Centre for
Responsible Banking & Finance based at the University of St Andrews. He is also a
Member of the Scientific Advisory Board of Chartered Association of Business Schools
Academic Journal Guide. Previously, he was Treasurer and General Secretary of the
British Accounting and Finance Association during the period 2009–11, and the
founding Chair of the British Accounting and Finance Association Financial Markets
and Institutions Special Interest Group over the period 2007–18. He has guest edited
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xxxii list of contributors
special issues for Journal of Corporate Finance, Journal of Banking & Finance, Journal of
Economic Behaviour & Organization, European Journal of Finance, Public Money &
Management, British Accounting Review and Managerial Finance. In the period June 2011
to April 2012, John served as a full member of a Commission on Credit Unions
established by the Irish Government. The Commission delivered interim and final
reports to the Minister for Finance in September 2011 and April 2012 respectively. In
2018, John delivered evidence on the impact of Brexit on UK small and medium-sized
enterprises to the House of Lords EU Internal Markets Committee.
Contributors
Tobias Adrian is the Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital
Markets Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this capacity, he
leads the IMF’s work on financial sector surveillance, monetary and macroprudential
policies, financial regulation, debt management, and capital markets. He also oversees
capacity-building activities in IMF member countries, particularly with regard to the
supervision and regulation of financial systems, central banking, monetary and
exchange rate regimes, and asset and liability management. Prior to joining the IMF, he
was a Senior Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Associate
Director of the Research and Statistics Group. At the Federal Reserve, he contributed
to monetary policy, financial stability policies, and crisis management. He taught at
Princeton University and New York University and has published extensively in
economics and finance journals, including the American Economic Review, Journal of
Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, and Review of Financial Studies. His research
spans asset pricing, financial institutions, monetary policy, and financial stability, with
a focus on aggregate consequences of capital markets developments. He holds a Ph.D
from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, an M.Sc. from the London School of
Economics, a Diploma from Goethe University Frankfurt, and a Maîtrise from
Dauphine University Paris. He received his Abitur in Literature and Mathematics from
Humboldtschule Bad Homburg.
Franklin Allen is Professor of Finance and Economics and Director of the Brevan
Howard Centre at Imperial College London and has held these positions since July
2014. He was on the faculty of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
from July 1980 to June 2016. He now has Emeritus status there. He was formerly Vice
Dean and Director of Wharton Doctoral Programs, Co-Director of the Wharton
Financial Institutions Center, Executive Editor of the Review of Financial Studies and
Managing Editor of the Review of Finance. He is a past President of the American
Finance Association, the Western Finance Association, the Society for Financial
Studies, the Financial Intermediation Research Society and the Financial Management
Association, and a Fellow of the Econometric Society and the British Academy. He
received his doctorate from Oxford University. His main areas of interest are corporate
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list of contributors xxxiii
finance, asset pricing, financial innovation, comparative financial systems, and financial
crises. He is a co-author with Richard Brealey and Stewart Myers of the eighth through
twelfth editions of the textbook Principles of Corporate Finance.
Linda Allen holds the William F. Aldinger Chair in Banking and Finance at Baruch
College, City University of New York. Her broad areas of research are risk measurement
and management, focusing on systemic risk, credit risk, and operational risk; the
evolution of financial markets and bank regulation; and the organization of financial
institutions. Her latest book Credit Risk Measurement In and Out of Crisis: New Approaches
to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, 3rd edition (Wiley, 2010), co-authored with
Anthony Saunders, describes the global financial crisis that began in 2007, as well as
deconstructs credit risk measurement models commonly used by bankers and other
finance professionals. She is also the author of Capital Markets and Institutions: A Global
View (Wiley, 1997) and co-author of Understanding Market, Credit and Operational Risk
(Blackwell, 2004). She is an associate editor of many finance journals, and has published
extensively in top academic journals in finance and economics. Along with her consulting
in securities litigation, she has lectured and advised all over the world on topics of risk
measurement and management, banking trends, and financial market development.
Deniz Anginer is a financial economist in the Finance and Private Sector Development
Team of the World Bank’s Research Group. He conducts research in the areas of
financial intermediation and empirical asset pricing. His research work in systemic risk
and financial stability has been widely cited by academics, media, and policymakers.
He has a Ph.D in Finance from the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan.
Adam B. Ashcraft is currently a Managing Director in the Global Risk Analytics Group
at Bank of America. Previously, he worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for
seventeen years where he held various roles including Co-Chair of the LISCC Liquidity
Program, Head of Credit Risk Management, and Research Economist. He holds Bachelor’s
degrees in Economics and Mathematics & Statistics from Miami University and a
Doctorate in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Thorsten Beck is Professor of banking and finance at Cass Business School in
London. He is also a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research
(CEPR) and the CESifo. He was Professor of Economics from 2008 to 2014 at Tilburg
University and the founding chair of the European Banking Center from 2008 to
2013. Previously he worked in the research department of the World Bank and has
also worked as consultant for, among others, the European Central Bank, the Bank
of England, the BIS, the IMF, the European Commission, and the German Development
Corporation. His research, academic publications, and operational work have focused
on two major questions: What is the relationship between finance and economic
development? What policies are needed to build a sound and effective financial
system? Recently, he has concentrated on access to financial services, including SME
finance, as well as on the design of regulatory and bank resolution frameworks. He
holds a Ph.D from the University of Virginia and an M.A. from the University of
Tübingen in Germany.
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list of contributors xxxv
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, among others. She acts as Associate
Editor for the Journal of Corporate Finance, as Editor in Chief for Finance Research
Letters, co-editor for the Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, and is on the
editorial boards of Emerging Markets Review and the Journal of International Financial
Markets Institutions and Money.
Christa H.S. Bouwman is Associate Professor of Finance and Patricia & Bookman
Peters Professor of Finance at Mays Business School at Texas A&M University; and
Fellow of the Wharton Financial Institutions Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
She was Associate Professor of Banking & Finance at Case Western Reserve University
where she also held the Lewis-Progressive Chair; Visiting Assistant Professor of
Finance at MIT’s Sloan School of Management; Research Associate at the Federal
Reserve Bank of Cleveland; and Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington DC. Her research interests are
in Financial Intermediation and Corporate Finance. She is Co-Editor-in-Chief of the
Journal of Financial Intermediation. She is Associate Editor of the Journal of Banking
& Finance; and former Associate Editor of the Journal of Financial Intermediation,
the Review of Finance, and Corporate Governance: An International Review. Her
research papers have been published in the American Economic Review, Journal of
Financial Economics, Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Financial Intermediation,
Journal of Financial Stability, Journal of Banking & Finance, and MIT/Sloan Management
Review. She is a co-author of the book “Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises”
(Elsevier, 2015). She worked for five years at ABN AMRO Bank (in Venture Capital,
Project Finance Advisory, and Capital Structure Advisory), and as a part-time
litigation consultant for the US Department of Justice. She received a Ph.D in Finance
from the University of Michigan, an M.B.A. from Cornell University, and a B.A./
M.A. in Economics and Business (cum laude) from the University of Groningen, the
Netherlands.
Peter Breuer is Deputy Chief of the Global Analysis Division at the International
Monetary Fund. In this role he jointly manages a team that analyzes risks to global
financial stability, monitors and assesses global market developments, and helps ensure
that the Fund takes consistent and well-informed views about financial risks and
policies, including in the Global Financial Stability Report. Previously, as Deputy Chief
of the Debt and Capital Markets Instruments Division, he oversaw teams analyzing
risks emanating from shadow banking and providing debt management advice. He also
led the Financial Sector Stability Assessment for Luxembourg. He headed the IMF’s
office in Ireland as Resident Representative during the EU–IMF program in 2011–14. In
previous roles, he served as Assistant to the Director in the Monetary and Capital
Markets Department, and worked in the IMF’s Asia-Pacific, European, International
Capital Markets, Strategy and Policy Review, and Research Departments. Policy areas
he has covered include capital markets and financial stability, as well as debt sustainability
and restructuring issues. Previous country responsibilities include Argentina, Bulgaria,
Finland, Hong Kong, Ireland, Luxembourg, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Uganda, United
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xxxvi list of contributors
Arab Emirates, and Uruguay. He holds a Ph.D and an M.A. from Brown University, a
M.Sc. from the London School of Economics, and a B.A. from Vassar College.
Claudia M. Buch is the Vice-President of the Deutsche Bundesbank. She is responsible
for Financial Stability, Statistics, and Internal Audit. She is the accompanying person of
the President of the Bundesbank on the ECB Governing Council and a member of the
German Financial Stability Committee (FSC). Prior to joining the Bundesbank in
May 2014, she was the President of the Institute for Economic Research (IWH) in
Halle (2013–14), Professor of Economics at the Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg
(2013–14), and Professor of Economics for “International Finance and Macroeconomics”
at the University of Tübingen (2004–13). From 2012 to 2014, she was a member of the
German Council of Economic Experts. She was Scientific Director at the Institute for
Applied Economic Research (IAW) in Tübingen (2005–13), and worked at the Institute
for World Economics in Kiel (IfW) from 1992 until 2013. She habilitated at the University
of Kiel (2002) after receiving her doctorate there in 1996. Between 1985 and 1991, she
studied Economics at the University of Bonn and she graduated from the University of
Wisconsin (Eau Claire) with a Master of Business Administration degree in 1988. Her
fields of specialization are financial stability, international banking, international
finance and macroeconomics, and financial integration.
Erwin Bulte is Professor of Development Economics at Wageningen University, and
Professor of Institutions and Development at Utrecht University. His main research
interests include institutional change, health, insurance, and agricultural development
in developing countries, and much of his research is based on field experiments in
Africa. Erwin has published more than 100 papers in international journals, including
papers in the American Economic Review, Economic Journal, European Economic
Review, and Journal of Public Economics. He is one of the leaders of the Policies,
Institutions and Market program of the CGIAR.
Charles W. Calomiris is the Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions at
Columbia Business School, a Professor at Columbia’s School of International and Public
Affairs, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He is
a member of the Shadow Open Market Committee and the Financial Economists
Roundtable. He is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Hoover Institution, where he
co-directs the Initiative on Regulation and the Rule of Law, and a Fellow at the
Manhattan Institute. He received a B.A. in Economics from Yale University in 1979 and
a Ph.D in Economics from Stanford University in 1985.
Gerard Caprio, Jr. is William Brough Professor of Economics at Williams College and
Chair of the Center for Development Economics. Previously he was the Director for
Policy in the World Bank’s Financial Sector Vice Presidency and head of the financial
sector research group. His research included establishing the first databases on banking
crises around the world and on bank regulation and supervision, and he worked on
financial system reform and development issues around the world. He has consulted
for the IMF, the World Bank, and various governments. He has authored numerous
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list of contributors xxxvii
articles, and co-authored The Guardians of Finance: Making Regulators Work for Us,
with Jim Barth and Ross Levine (MIT Press, 2012), with whom he also wrote Rethinking
Bank Regulation: Till Angels Govern (Cambridge University Press, 2006). Earlier
positions include: Vice President and Head of Global Economics at JPMorgan, and
economist positions at the Federal Reserve Board and the IMF. He has taught at Trinity
College Dublin, where he was a Fulbright Scholar, and at George Washington University.
Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho was Emeritus Professor of Economics at the Institute
of Economics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Former associate editor of
the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, he is author of the books Mr Keynes and the
Post Keynesians (Edward Elgar, 1992) and Liquidity Preference and Monetary Economies
(Routledge, 2015). His research interests were Keynesian macroeconomics, international
monetary economics, and financial systems.
Jacopo Carmassi is a Senior Financial Stability Expert in the Financial Regulation and
Policy Division, DG Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability, at the European
Central Bank. He is a Fellow of CASMEF, the Arcelli Center for Monetary and Financial
Studies, University LUISS Guido Carli, and a Fellow of the Wharton Financial
Institutions Center, University of Pennsylvania. Previously, he worked as an economist
at Assonime, the Association of Joint Stock Companies incorporated in Italy, and at the
Italian Banking Association. He holds a Ph.D in Law and Economics from University
LUISS Guido Carli of Rome. He is author of several publications on banking and
financial regulation topics, including the 2007–9 Global Financial Crisis, bank capital
rules, bank crisis resolution, deposit insurance, banking union in Europe, and the
corporate complexity of Global Systemically Important Banks.
Elena Carletti is Professor of Finance at Bocconi University and Scientific Director
of the Florence School of Banking and Finance at the European University Institute
(EUI). Previously she was Professor of Economics at the EUI, holding a joint chair in
the Economics Department and the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies.
She is a member of the Board of Directors of Unicredit SpA and of the Advisory
Scientific Committee of the European Systemic Risk Board. Furthermore, she is
Research Fellow at CEPR, Fellow of the Finance Theory Group, CESifo, IGIER, and
the Wharton Financial Institutions Center. Among other appointments, she has
worked as consultant for the OECD and the World Bank, has served in the review
panel of the Irish Central Bank and of the Riskbank, and has been a board member
of the Financial Intermediation Research Society and of the Fondazione della Cassa
di Risparmio di La Spezia. Her main research areas are Financial Intermediation,
Financial Crises and Regulation, Competition Policy, Corporate Governance, and
Sovereign Debt.
Barbara Casu is the Director of the Centre for Banking Research at Cass Business
School, where she is Professor of Banking and Finance. Her main research interests are
in empirical banking, although several of her research projects are cross-disciplinary
and include aspects of financial regulation, structured finance, accounting and
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corporate governance. She has published widely, with over forty publications in
peer-reviewed journals. She has also written the popular textbook Introduction to
Banking (Pearson FT, 2015), which is widely adopted for banking courses across the
world. She has recently co-edited the Palgrave Handbook of European Banking.
Nicola Cetorelli is a Vice President at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the
Head of the Financial Intermediation Function in its Research Group. His research has
focused on the industrial organization and the corporate finance characteristics of the
banking industry and the relationships with real economic activity. More recently he
has worked on themes of international banking and on the evolution of financial
intermediation. He represents the New York Fed on various Financial Stability Boards’
international working groups. He has published in a number of scholarly journals,
among which the Journal of Finance, Journal of Economic Theory, American Economic
Review, and Journal of International Economics. He has also written many articles in
various policy journals and book chapters. He received his Ph.D in Economics from
Brown University and a B.A. from the University of Rome, Italy.
Ruiyuan (Ryan) Chen is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the West Virginia
University. His current research focuses on state ownership, corporate governance, and
corporate cash holdings. His research has been published in Emerging Markets Review,
the Journal of Corporate Finance, and the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.
Robert Cull is acting research manager and Lead Economist in the Finance and Private
Sector Development Team of the World Bank’s Development Research Group. His
most recent research is on the performance of microfinance institutions, African
financial development, Chinese financial development and firm performance, and the
effects of the global financial crisis on foreign banks in developing economies. He has
published numerous articles in peer-reviewed academic journals including the
Economic Journal, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives,
Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Law and Economics, and the Journal of Money,
Credit, and Banking. The author or editor of multiple books, his most recent co-edited
book, Banking the World: Empirical Foundations of Financial Inclusion was published
by MIT Press in January, 2013. He is also co-editor of the Interest Bearing Notes, a
bi-monthly newsletter reporting on financial and private sector research.
Olivier de Bandt is director of International Economics and Cooperation at the Banque
de France. He was previously head of the Directorate of Research and Risk Analysis at
the ACPR, the French Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority. He holds a
Ph.D from the Department of Economics of the University of Chicago. He contributed
many articles in peer-reviewed academic journals on stress-testing methods, the
analysis of systemic risk, the impact of banking regulation, the economics of insurance.
He is an Associate Editor of the Journal of Financial Stability.
Luiz Fernando de Paula is Professor of Economics at the State University of Rio de
Janeiro (Brazil), joint appointment between the Faculty of Economics (FCE) and
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Institute of Social and Political Studies (IESP), and CNPq Researcher. He is currently a
co-editor of the Brazilian Keynesian Review. He is author of the book Financial
Liberalization and Economic Performance: Brazil at the Crossroads (Routledge, 2011)
and co-editor of the book Financial Liberalization and Economic Performance in
Emerging Countries (Palgrave Macmillan, 2008). A former chairman of the Brazilian
Keynesian Association, his research interests include banking, financial systems,
Keynesian macroeconomics, and economic policies related to emerging economies.
Hans Degryse is Professor of Finance at the Department of Accountancy, Finance and
Insurance of the KU Leuven. He is a research fellow at the CEPR, CESIfo, the European
Banking Center (EBC), and TILEC. He is a member of the Group of Economic Advisers
of ESMA. Before joining Leuven in 2012, he was Professor of Finance at Tilburg
University. His research focuses on financial intermediation, including theoretical and
empirical banking as well as market microstructure. He has published in many journals
including the American Economic Review, Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial
Economics, Review of Financial Studies, Management Science, Review of Finance, Journal
of Financial Intermediation, and the Economic Journal, and has been presented in
leading international conferences such as the American Finance Association, the
Western Finance Association, the European Finance Association, and the Financial
Intermediation Research Society. He co-authored, with Moshe Kim and Steven Ongena,
the graduate textbook Microeconometrics of Banking: Methods, Applications and Results
(Oxford University Press, 2009).
Gayle L. DeLong is an Associate Professor in the Economics and Finance Department
of Baruch College in the City University of New York. She earned a Ph.D in International
Business and Finance from New York University and a Masters in International
Business Studies from the University of South Carolina. Her research interests include
banking, public–private partnerships, and the implications of regulations. In 2012, she
won the Abraham J. Briloff Prize in Ethics at Baruch College, New York.
Asli Demirgüç-Kunt is the Director of Research at the World Bank. After joining the
Bank in 1989 as a Young Economist, she has held different positions, including Director
of Development Policy, Chief Economist of Financial and Private Sector Development
Network, and Senior Research Manager, doing research and advising on financial
sector and private sector development issues. She has published over 100 articles in the
areas of banking crises, financial regulation, links between financial and economic
development, access to financial services and financial inclusion. She has been the
President of International Atlantic Economic Society (2013–14) and Director of Western
Economic Association (2015–18). Prior to coming to the Bank, she was an Economist at
the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. She holds a Ph.D and an M.A. in economics
from the Ohio State University.
Robert DeYoung is the Koch Distinguished Professor of Business Economics and holds
the Harold Otto Chair in Economics at the University of Kansas School of Business. He
is also co-editor of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Prior to joining the KU
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Her current research studies the impact of digital financial services, especially for
women. She is a founder of the Global Findex database, which measures how adults
around the world save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Previously, she
worked at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Salomon Smith
Barney. She holds a Ph.D in Financial Economics from New York University Stern
School of Business.
Andreas Lehnert is the director of the Division of Financial Stability at the Federal
Reserve Board in Washington, DC. He joined the Fed after earning his Ph.D in economics
from the University of Chicago. He started in the household finance research group
where he worked on a variety of topics in consumer and mortgage credit. During the
financial crisis, he contributed to several projects including various mortgage modification
initiatives, the TARP, the 2009 bank stress tests, and the TALF. In November 2010, he
moved to the Board’s newly created financial stability group where he participates in a
variety of ongoing initiatives to promote financial stability, including regulatory reform,
the periodic assessment of financial vulnerabilities, the development of macroprudential
tools, and the design and oversight of the bank stress tests; in addition, he supports the
Federal Reserve’s role on the Financial Stability Oversight Council and the Financial
Stability Board. His research focuses on financial stability, macroprudential policy,
banking, and finance.
Alex Martin is a Senior Research Assistant at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
in the Division of Financial Stability. Previously, she served as a Research Intern at the
US Department of the Treasury in the Office of Economic Policy. She is a graduate of
the University of Mississippi with a B.A. in International Studies and Mathematics.
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the disease would be greatly furthered if competent epidemiologists
should see fit to devote their entire time to a study of the disease in
its various ramifications. The author suggests a research
organization of individuals whose function it would be to become
completely acquainted with influenza. The organization should be
under the direction of a competent board of epidemiologists. Under
them would work several groups composed of epidemiologists,
bacteriologists and others. There should be sufficient groups so that
they might be distributed to diverse regions of the earth. They should
be equipped for travel, with mobile bacteriologic laboratories and all
the necessary equipment for epidemiologic surveys, so that at a
moment’s notice they could proceed to wherever an epidemic of any
disease simulating influenza is reported to be prevalent. The working
groups would be under the administrative control of the central
directors and would make their reports to them. All groups should be
so distributed geographically as to have easy and rapid access to any
community in which an epidemic might occur. They would keep
themselves informed concerning the disease prevalence in all
communities under their jurisdiction. This would be done through
the co-operation of the civil health authorities and through the
utilization of all other available sources of information. The central
board should be constantly in touch with the groups, so that the
infectious disease prevalence in all parts of the world would be
known at all times.
Had such an organization been in existence during the last thirty
years, every one of the so-called influenza epidemics reported in one
place or another would have been investigated. Detailed
epidemiologic, statistical, demographic and bacteriologic reports
would have been made. It matters little how small or insignificant
the outbreak appears to be. Even the smallest have their
characteristic features and are worthy of study. If we study epidemic
influenza but once in thirty years, we will never become well
acquainted with the disease. We must see it repeatedly and
frequently. If it does not exist during the intervals we must study the
diseases simulating it. It is surprising how much of the knowledge
acquired in 1889 was forgotten by 1918. Even some of the more
important features had passed from memory. Thus we find
statements in 1918 that the age morbidity was quite different from
that in all preceding epidemics. Research into the literature of the
past does not corroborate this impression.
If influenza is scattered throughout the earth in mild form, it
would avail us but little to send a commission to Bokhara to study
the endemic focus supposed by some to exist in Turkestan. Even
though the disease were endemic in that country, one would not
expect to discover epidemics there. The general immunity of the
population in the endemic area is probably increased. Nevertheless
one unit might well be stationed in Turkestan, there to study the
existing conditions regarding infectious diseases.
There would be ample work for all groups at all times. The study
would not be limited to a consideration of infectious diseases.
Sociologic conditions may be of importance. We have recorded
instances of this. Wherever there is an unusual concentration of large
masses of individuals the investigators should study the results of
such concentration.
An advantage of this organization would be that the groups
through their central bureau would establish an information bureau
of infectious disease prevalence analogous to the popular weather
bureau of today. They would report the presence of a cloud before it
had appeared on the local horizon.
In the absence of any epidemics resembling influenza, there would
be abundant opportunity for correlated work. We have mentioned
the epidemiologic resemblances between influenza and certain other
infectious diseases. Comparative study of any or all of them is of
importance. The bacteriologist and the immunologist would find
plenty of material in the study of measles prevalences. The two
diseases are so similar in their manner of spread, in the probable
mode of transmission, in their clinical characteristics and in the
results of laboratory attempts at transmission, that one must assume
that the causative viruses are not dissimilar. Any new facts that we
may gain concerning measles will be of value in the study of
influenza.
Many years could be well devoted merely to a study of immunity in
influenza.
The results obtained by this proposed organization for the
investigation of influenza would be slow in achievement. The study is
not of a type calculated to appeal to the popular imagination.
Communities in which the dread of an imminent pestilence is not
present would subscribe with some hesitation to appeals for
pecuniary assistance. Fortunately, however, there are in existence
several organizations already well developed along these lines,
organizations chiefly interested in certain other diseases. There can
be no doubt but that at the present time the financing of such a
broad project could be arranged, and that the groups could be
efficiently organized on the basis of experience already gained in
similar projects.
Crookshank well remarks that our present epidemiologic
intelligence service is hardly superior to that of a Meteorologic Office
which only gives warning of rain when unfurled umbrellas pass along
the street. Influenza will surely return. There will be mild epidemics
within the next few years. In time another pandemic will arrive, and
after it will come pandemic after pandemic. In 1918 as in 1889 we
were caught unprepared. Let us do our utmost to prevent the
recurrence of this tragedy. To delay is to loose the valuable
information gained during the last two years. The future is not
without well grounded hope, but success will not be achieved until
we have attained a much deeper understanding of the epidemiology
of influenza.
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