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Generalized Anxiety Disorder and Worrying A Comprehensive Handbook For Clinicians and Researchers 1St Edition Alexander Gerlach Full Chapter
Generalized Anxiety Disorder and Worrying A Comprehensive Handbook For Clinicians and Researchers 1St Edition Alexander Gerlach Full Chapter
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10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To the memory of and moments shared with my father.
Andrew T. Gloster
Contents
List of Contributors ix
Index381
List of Contributors
Keith Bredemeier Center for the Treatment and Study of Anxiety, Philadelphia,
PA, USA
Everyone worries. Some people worry occasionally or transitorily, while others worry
frequently or uncontrollably. The ubiquity of worry makes its study far‐reaching,
important, and exciting. Worry—like most concepts in mental health nomenclature—
is not a technical term, however, but rather stems from everyday language’s attempt
to describe inner‐psychic experiences. This, in turn, makes the study of worry difficult
and sometimes messy. For example, if you simply ask a person to worry, will this
instruction result in the same type of worry that occurs naturally? Worrying at night,
when trying to fall asleep, is probably one of the most common situations in which
people worry. However, why do we worry some nights and not others? Is it really
simply a question of triggers being responsible for a worry episode starting?
Interestingly, in some treatments, asking individuals to worry is used therapeutically.
This often results in the new experience that when one actively worries, it is actually
less anxiety provoking and much less associated with a feeling of losing control than
when worrying occurs spontaneously (compare Gerlach & Stevens, 2014). However,
to date, it remains unknown why there are such striking differences in the experience
of worry, dependent on circumstances. Nonetheless, this approach (instructing some-
body to worry) is one of the most common forms of worry induction used to study,
for example, the acute physiological effects of worrying (e.g., Andor, Gerlach, & Rist,
2008; Borkovec & Inz, 1990; Stefanopoulou, Hirsch, Hayes, Adlam, & Coker,
2014). Other examples of worry induction are the use of materials such as film clips
about worrisome topics. The use of such materials as triggers, however, does not
Generalized Anxiety Disorder and Worrying: A Comprehensive Handbook for Clinicians and Researchers,
First Edition. Edited by Alexander L. Gerlach and Andrew T. Gloster.
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Published 2020 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
2 Alexander L. Gerlach and Andrew T. Gloster
Epidemiology
Epidemiological studies of GAD generally estimate the lifetime prevalence of GAD as
between 3 and 5% (Bijl, Ravelli, & van Zessen, 1998; Kessler et al., 2005; Ma et al.,
2009; Wittchen, 2002). These rates are relatively consistent across cultures (Ruscio
et al., 2017). GAD is associated with high costs to both the individual and society
(Olesen, Gustavsson, Svensson, Wittchen, & Jönsson, 2012; Wittchen, 2002). Some
studies have examined subclinical GAD by relaxing one or more of the diagnostic
criteria from the standardized diagnostic manuals (DSM‐III‐R, DSM‐IV, or ICD‐10).
These studies estimate the lifetime prevalence at 12% and document significant suffer-
ing, impairment, and healthcare costs in afflicted individuals (Haller, Cramer, Lauche,
Gass, & Dobos, 2014). Epidemiology studies further suggest that the age of onset
occurs later in GAD than other anxiety and depressive disorders (Beesdo, Pine, Lieb,
& Wittchen, 2010; Lieb, Becker, & Altamura, 2005). Furthermore, some evidence
points to an increased prevalence of GAD in older age groups (Beekman et al., 1998).
Equally important, epidemiological studies document high levels of comorbidity,
with an estimated 83.3% of individuals with GAD suffering from at least one other
anxiety, mood, or substance use disorder (Kessler & Walters, 2002). GAD is most
often comorbid with any mood disorder (71.6%), followed by any anxiety disorder
(57.8%) and any substance use disorder (34.3%).
With respect to specialized mental healthcare, studies have begun to examine the
cost–benefit of treating GAD with either Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) or
pharmacology. One study based on assumptions of the Australian health care system
modeled a 12‐session CBT vs. pharmacology (serotonin‐norepinephrine reuptake
Inhibitor [SNRI] with nine office visits with either a GP or a psychiatrist) with respect
to the total cost to the healthcare system (i.e., cost to the patient and cost to the gov-
ernment). This study concluded that CBT was more cost‐effective (Heuzenroeder
et al., 2004). The generalizability of this study depends on the modeled costs associ-
ated with psychotherapy in each country and whether practitioners would indeed see
their patients nine times per year. The degree to which these assumptions vary would
affect the relative cost savings in each healthcare system. An analysis based on assump-
tions adequate for the German healthcare system came to a similar conclusion
(Wunsch, Kliem, Grocholewski, & Kröger, 2013). Other aspects that should be con-
sidered when examining the cost–benefit of a treatment are the availability, tolerability
(e.g., side‐effects, stigma, etc.), and effect size of the treatment both at the end of
active treatment and in the extended follow up phase after the termination of
treatment.
Nutt, Argyropoulos, Hood, and Potokar (2006) suggested 23 years ago that GAD
scientifically is a somewhat neglected disorder, although research into worry and
GAD is important given it is one of the most common conditions occurring comor-
bidly with other disorders. We believe the research presented in the present book is a
fine representation of the profound headway research has made towards a better
understanding of this mental disorder in recent years. The first section of the book
addresses the basic science foundation of worry and GAD. The next chapter (Rinner
& Gloster) gives an overview on self‐report instruments developed to assess worry
and related constructs. Furthermore, specific challenges in assessing GAD and worry
are highlighted as well as possible solutions to these challenges, such as the use of
momentary assessment methodologies. Bredemeier and Berenbaum link the research
on perception of threat to worry, GAD, and related constructs and illustrate a novel
strategy to treat pathological worrying based on this analysis. Ehring and Behar take
a transdiagnostic view on worrying and relate it to other forms of negative mental
content. Moreover, they summarize research on repetitive negative thinking and pre-
sent evidence for the overlap of symptoms such as obsessions, rumination, and wor-
rying. Jansson‐Fröjmark, Bilevicius, El‐Gabalawy, and Asmundson extend the view on
worry and GAD by looking at the link between worry and other health problems,
such as health anxiety and insomnia disorder. A large number of theoretical models
explaining GAD and pathological worrying have been developed in the realm of cog-
nitive behavior therapy. Koerner, McEvoy, and Tallon detail these models and take the
reader on a journey from the historical beginnings of research into GAD to a synthesis
and discussion of the most modern perspectives on this long misunderstood disorder.
Stewart, Stephens, Roche, and Dymond focus on yet another aspect, namely learning
science. Starting from basic conditioning theory and avoidance learning, they extend
their view toward relational frame theory and illustrate how these concepts help
understand worry and GAD better. Schienle and Wabnegger summarize research on
6 Alexander L. Gerlach and Andrew T. Gloster
the structural and functional neuroanatomy of Generalized Anxiety Disorder and give
a comprehensive overview on the complex findings within this realm. Finally, Xie
extends these theoretical and empirical overviews by adding a cultural perspective on
the understanding and treatment of pathological worry and GAD.
The second section of the book addresses the applied science of treating worry and
GAD. These chapters examine the phenomenology, etiology, and maintenance of
worry and GAD as applied to treatment. Each chapter describes a therapy that can be
derived when combining the basic understanding of worry and GAD with various
therapy assumptions. The chapters include detailed descriptions of techniques, empir-
ical reviews, and case examples. The different therapies include the most widely
researched approach to date of CBT (Newman, Zainal, & Hoyer) as well as relatively
newer psychotherapy approaches: Interpersonal and Emotion‐focused Therapy (I/
EP; Newman & Zainal); Acceptance and Mindfulness treatments (Roemer & Orsillo),
and current approaches of psychodynamic therapies as applied to GAD (Leichsenring,
Steinert, & Salzer). Pharmacological treatments are also reviewed, with attention paid
to comparative efficacy, treatment duration, and current recommendations of differ-
ent classes of pharmacological agents (Baldwin). In addition, the important topic of
digital developments is examined in a chapter on internet and computer interven-
tions, including cognitive bias modification (Andersson & Becker). One chapter was
dedicated specifically to the treatment of children and adolescents (In‐Albon,
Wahlund, & Perrin). Finally, the last chapter examines the current state of research on
worry and GAD and looks forward to further developments (Gloster & Gerlach).
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2
Assessing Worry
An Overview
Marcia T. B. Rinner and
Andrew T. Gloster
Department of Psychology, Division of Clinical Psychology and
Intervention Science, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
Introduction
Valid and reliable assessments are important for both the research and treatment of
generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and its key feature: worry. As with most con-
structs, the assessment of worry and its associated effects presents several challenges.
This chapter provides an overview of the different types of assessments that exist for
GAD and worry and options for dealing with current challenges.
What Is Worrying?
Generalized Anxiety Disorder and Worrying: A Comprehensive Handbook for Clinicians and Researchers,
First Edition. Edited by Alexander L. Gerlach and Andrew T. Gloster.
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Published 2020 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
10 Marcia T. B. Rinner and Andrew T. Gloster
Questionnaire (PSWQ; Meyer, Miller, Metzger, & Borkovec, 1990) and the Worry
Domains Questionnaire (WDQ; Tallis, Eysenck, & Mathews, 1992) are most often
used. The PSWQ was created to measure an individual’s tendency to worry with
respect to excess and intensity; however, it does not measure the content of the indi-
vidual’s worry (Antony, Orsillo, & Roemer, 2001). In contrast, the WDQ (Tallis et al.,
1992) was created to ascertain how much an individual worries about five separate
domains: relationships, lack of confidence, aimless future, work, and finance. The
WDQ has been recommended for non‐pathological worry, whereas the PSWQ is bet-
ter suited to measure pathological worry (Verkuil, Brosschot, & Thayer, 2007).
However, it is possible that the WDQ simply measures a different aspect of worry as
opposed to a different quality. This supposition, however, awaits empirical validation.
The WDQ was further refined and also exists in a short version (Worry Domains
Questionnaire Short Form; Stöber & Joormann, 2001) and was adapted for managers
(Worry Inventory for Managers; Stöber & Seidenstücker, 1997) and elderly adults
(Worry Scale for Older Adults; Wisocki, 1994). Next to the PSWQ and the WDQ,
other self‐report questionnaires of worry have been reported in the literature, as for
example the Consequences of Worrying Scale (COWS; Davey, Tallis, & Capuzzo,
1996), the Student Worry Scale (SWS; Davey, Hampton, Farrell, & Davidson, 1992),
and the Why Worry Scale (WW and WW‐II; Freeston, Rhéaume, Letarte, Dugas, &
Ladouceur, 1994; Holowka, Dugas, Francis, & Laugesen, 2000). A short description
of those instruments can be viewed in Table 2.1.
Numerous other self‐report questionnaires assess the facet of worry within the
domain of related constructs (i.e., intrusive thoughts and diagnosis of GAD). For
example, the Meta‐Cognitions Questionnaire (MCQ; Cartwright‐Hatton & Wells,
1997) measures beliefs about worry and intrusive thoughts. The MCQ consists of five
subscales labeled: (a) positive worry beliefs; (b) beliefs about controllability and dan-
ger; (c) beliefs about cognitive competence; (d) general negative beliefs; and (e) cog-
nitive self‐consciousness. The MCQ subscales demonstrated adequate to good
internal consistency and good 5‐week test–retest reliability. The first three subscales
were shown to predict levels of worry and resulted in significant differences between
individuals with GAD and obsessive‐compulsive disorder (OCD). The clinical utility
of this measure lies in its ability to identify beliefs that may increase the frequency and
persistence of worry. In addition, the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS; Freeston
et al., 1994) measures emotional and behavioral reactions to ambiguous situations.
The IUS is reported to possess excellent internal validity and adequate 5‐week test–
retest reliability in an English‐speaking student sample. The IUS has demonstrated
convergent validity (with other measures of worry) and discriminant validity (between
a GAD sample and non‐anxious controls; as reported in Antony, Orsillo, & Roemer,
2001). Further related constructs are, for example, the Anxious Thought Inventory
(AnTI; Wells, 1994) and the Thought Control Questionnaire (TCQ; Wells & Davies,
1994). The AnTI (Wells, 1994) is an instrument measuring generalized worry on
three factors (level of worry about health, worry about social relationships and meta
worry). The MCQ short version (MCQ‐30; Wells & Cartwright‐Hatton, 2004)
assesses individual metacognitive beliefs on five subscales: (a) cognitive confidence;
(b) positive beliefs about worry; (c) cognitive self‐consciousness; (d) negative beliefs
about uncontrollability of thoughts and danger; and (e) beliefs about need to control
thoughts. The MCQ for children (MCQ‐C; Bacow, Pincus, Ehrenreich, & Brody,
2009), as well as the MCQ for adolescents (MCQ‐A; Cartwright‐Hatton et al., 2004),
Table 2.1 Common Assessments of GAD, Worry, and Related Constructs.
(continued on p.14 )
Table 2.1 (Continued )
are adapted versions of the MCQ for measuring metacognitive belief in children and
adolescents. Finally, the TCQ assesses thought controlling strategies (Wells & Davies,
1994). A description of the items of the presented instruments can also be viewed in
Table 2.1.
Additionally, some studies have presented daily diaries as an instrument for the
assessment of worry. For example, a study from Szabó and Lovibond (2002) used a
worry diary to assess the function of worry. Participants were asked to monitor each
worrisome thought they had by writing it down on a diary for 7 days and then subse-
quently to rate the frequency and the uncontrollability of the worries. Similarly, a
study from Borkovec, Harzlett‐Stevens, and Diaz (1999) asked participants to write
down worries each day for 2 weeks in a Worry Outcome Diary.
Psychophysiological measurements have also been used to measure correlates of
worry. One of the trademark indications of anxiety is physiological arousal. In addi-
tion, some authors believe that the unique physiological findings associated with
worry may serve as biological markers for chronic worry (Campbell & Brown, 2002).
Consistent with psychophysiological assessment of anxiety in general, such research
on worry has concentrated on the rigidity of the autonomic nervous system during
worry. It has been demonstrated that low heart rate variability as a measure of an
inflexible autonomic nervous system is associated with higher trait worry (Chalmers,
Quintana, Abbott, & Kemp, 2014) and daily worry (Brosschot et al., 2007). Also,
individuals with higher intolerance of uncertainty show lower heart rate variability
(Deschênes, Dugas, & Gouin, 2016). In addition to measures of autonomic rigidity,
other physiological correlates identified via physiological assessment include elevated
muscle tension and skin conductance as well as predominant activation of the left‐
frontal cortex as measured by the electroencephalogram (EEG; Borkovec et al., 2004;
Hofmann et al., 2005). Further studies have investigated other related aspects of
worry; for example, the release of cortisol, endocrinological or immunological cor-
relates of worry (Brosschot, Gerin, & Thayer, 2006; Schlotz, Hellhammer, Schulz, &
Stone, 2004).
General concerns about psychophysiological measurements have been raised,
including the enormous inter‐individual variability and numerous potential confounds
in most assessment procedures (Herbert, Rheingold, & Brandsma, 2001), cost and
practicality in clinical settings, and the limited relevant information for treatment
planning. Concerns have also been raised about self‐report measurements, such as
self‐report questionnaires being especially prone to cognitive biases.
(Segerstrom, Tsao, Alden, & Craske, 2000). Indeed, forcing dichotomous decisions
with respect to symptom severity and primary diagnosis has been identified as the two
main causes of poor inter‐rater reliability in the diagnosis of GAD (Brown, 2002).
Stemming from the private nature of worry, matters are further complicated by
virtue of the discrepancy between academic and colloquial usages of the word (Hoyer,
Gloster, & Herzberg, 2009). The imprecise nature of the word can lead to inaccura-
cies and biases in data obtained, inferences drawn from the data, and, in therapeutic
settings, faulty case formulation.
Additionally, worry has mainly been assessed with global self‐report assessments,
which is problematic due to cognitive biases that distort the nature, amplitude, and
frequency of the experience of clinical symptoms (Rinner et al., 2019). Cognitive
biases showing a discrepancy between recalled and actual symptoms have been found
across numerous diagnoses. For example, a study from Stone, Broderick, Shiffman,
and Schwartz (2004) showed that patients with chronic pain reported pain more
intensely and more frequently when recalled retrospectively. Patients with panic
disorders and agoraphobia also retrospectively overestimated panic frequency
before treatment when compared to a self‐monitored diary (De Beurs, Lange, & Van
Dyck, 1992; Margraf, Taylor, Ehlers, Roth, & Agras, 1987). Patients with symptoms
of anxiety, and especially patients with a GAD diagnosis, also report memory distor-
tions. Specifically, individuals with GAD have been shown to have a memory bias
toward threatening stimuli and a general tendency to interpret neutral stimuli as
threatening (MacLeod & McLaughlin, 1995; Mathews, 1990). Consequently, assess-
ing worry through retrospective recall increases the risk of false information due to
cognitive bias.
Assessing worry through global self‐report is further restricted because it can’t
measure daily fluctuations of worry. A study from Verkuil et al. (2007) underlined this
fact by showing that global self‐report measures only account for a fraction of variance
in daily experienced worry.
Assessing worry and GAD with the event sampling methodology (ESM)
Several authors recommend using ESM for the assessment of psychological factors
such as worry (Gloster & Karekla, in press; Gloster et al., 2008; Miron‐Shatz, Stone,
& Kahneman, 2009). Through electronic devices, such as smartphone or electronic
diaries, individuals are asked to report on targeted emotions, cognitions, or experi-
ences as they occur during the exact moment of the survey. This methodology cap-
tures worry close to real time and in a natural environment (Thielsch, Andor, &
Ehring, 2015), thereby reducing recollection biases.
Several studies have been conducted using ESM to assess worry. The procedure of
ESM assessment is similar across the studies. Participants are asked to protocol their
worries on a portable device (e.g., iPod, smartphone) or on paper (e.g., daily diary),
for an average duration of 1 week. In some studies, the participants were asked to
protocol their worries each time they observed themselves worrying (event‐based); in
other studies worry was protocolled at randomized or predefined prompted times
(time‐based). The way worry was operationalized differs between studies from a
broad form of assessment, to more distinct forms. An example of a broad assessment
was used by Kircanski et al. (2015; e.g., “At the time of the beep, I was worried about
things that could happen”). More specific forms of assessment include the time spent
Assessing Worry 17
worrying (Dupuy, Beaudoin, Rhéaume, Ladouceur, & Dugas, 2001; Verkuil et al.
2007); the frequency of worry (e.g., “How often did worries occur since the last
report?”: Thielsch, Ehring, Nestler, Wolte, Kopei, Rist, Gerlach, and Andor, 2015; see
also Szabó & Lovibond, 2002; Thielsch, Andor, et al., 2015; Verkuil et al. 2007), the
intensity (e.g., “How much did you worry in the past hour”: Thielsch, Andor, et al.,
2015), the burden of the worried thoughts (“How much were you bothered by worry
in the past hour”; Thielsch, Andor, et al., 2015), the duration of worry (“How many
minutes did you worry since the last report?”: Thielsch, Ehring, et al., 2015), or the
feeling of uncontrollability (e.g., “My worry is uncontrollable”; Thielsch, Ehring,
et al. (2015) see also Szabó & Lovibond 2002). Some of these ESM studies utilized
items from well‐known self‐report questionnaires, such as the MCQ‐30 (Thielsch,
Ehring, et al., 2015) or the WDQ (Verkuil, Brosschot, Gebhardt, & Korrelboom,
2015) to measure worry.
Measuring worry with ESM has increased knowledge about the variance and natu-
ralistic characteristics, functions, and correlates of worry. As such, ESM studies have
shown individual and day/night differences in the duration of worry. For example,
individuals worry longer during the day than at night. During the day, worrying lasts
on average between 22.51 min (SD = 35.61; Verkuil et al., 2007) and 40.71 min
(SD = 42.35; Verkuil et al., 2015). Mean scores for night worrying vary between
5.52 min (SD = 9.42; Verkuil et al., 2007) and 24.50 min (SD = 20.67; Verkuil et al.,
2015). However, the high standard deviations collected within those studies indicated
high inter‐individual differences: some individuals worry more than others.
The observed increased duration of worry during daytime compared to nighttime
in ESM studies led some to examine the relation between worry and sleep. It has been
hypothesized that daytime durations are a consequence of nighttime worry, as medi-
ated by sleep quality. High nighttime worry might reduce sleep quality and thereby
increase worrying on the next day (Verkuil et al., 2015). Indeed, an association
between worry and perceived sleep quality was found in an ESM study from Thielsch,
Ehring, et al. (2015), lending support to this hypothesis.
In addition to showing inter‐individual differences in worry, recent ESM studies
also report associations between worry and specific groups. For example, Verkuil et al.
(2015) showed that individuals with a high level of work stress worried almost twice
as often compared to a control group, and particularly showed increased worry dur-
ing nighttime. Similar results were shown in individuals with a GAD diagnosis.
Participants in the GAD group spent significantly more time worrying (309.9 min,
SD = 195.46) than a non‐GAD control group (54.93 min, SD = 62.85; Dupuy et al.,
2001). Equivalent levels of worry, however, were found between individuals with a
diagnosis of GAD and/or major depression disorder (MDD; Kircanski et al., 2015).
ESM studies have also investigated further bivariate relationships between worry
and other variables that inform about the nature of worry. For example, associations
between worry frequency and worry duration (r = 0.83; Brosschot et al., 2007) and
between daily worry and goal attainment (Verkuil et al., 2015) have been reported.
A further ESM study also showed that negative metacognitions (i.e., “worry is uncon-
trollable and dangerous”) predicts the intensity and burden of worry in everyday life
and showed that negative cognitions account for an essential proportion of the vari-
ance of daily worry (Thielsch, Ehring, et al., 2015).
ESM has also been used as a therapy tool to reduce worry in individuals with a
GAD diagnosis (LaFreniere & Newman, 2016). Researchers have demonstrated that
18 Marcia T. B. Rinner and Andrew T. Gloster
ESM is a good tool to assess psychological constructs, such as worry in daily life. The
clinical utility of this approach needs further examination. In sum, the assessment of
worry with ESM has increased knowledge about the nature, variability, function, and
association effects of worry in a naturalistic setting. However, further ESM studies are
needed to increase the understanding of worry and GAD and the use of ESM as a
therapy tool.
experiential avoidance of all types of unwanted internal and external stimuli has been
associated with numerous disorders (Hayes, Luoma, Bond, Masuda, & Lillis, 2006).
Cognitive avoidance has been shown, however, to differ between pathological and non‐
pathological worriers. Therefore, cognitive avoidance has been suggested to discriminate
between adults with and without GAD (Dugas, Gagnon, Ladouceur, & Freeston, 1998).
Conclusion
This chapter reviews the different types of assessments of worry, GAD, and of related
constructs, as well as the challenges in assessing these. For instance, individual varia-
tions in the subjective understanding of the word worry in respondents and biases
associated with its retrospective recollection are consistent challenges in its assess-
ment. Furthermore, when assessing worry, its continuous and private nature should
be considered. Given the difficulty in assessing and identifying worry, it is advisable to
consider a multi‐level, multi‐method approach that coordinates the use of question-
naires, clinical interviews, physiological methods, and ESM to assess worry (Gloster
& Karekla, in press).
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3
Perceptions of Threat
Keith Bredemeier1 and Howard Berenbaum2
1
Center for the Treatment and Study of Anxiety, Philadelphia, PA, USA
2
Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Urbana‐
Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA
Introduction
Generalized Anxiety Disorder and Worrying: A Comprehensive Handbook for Clinicians and Researchers,
First Edition. Edited by Alexander L. Gerlach and Andrew T. Gloster.
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Published 2020 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
26 Keith Bredemeier and Howard Berenbaum
in the future for them to worry about.1 If accurate, this suggests that understanding
the nature, origins, and consequences of these threat perceptions has critical implica-
tions for theories of, and treatment for, excessive worry and generalized anxiety
disorder (GAD). Although this chapter focuses on research about the general ten-
dency to worry, along with GAD, there is emerging evidence that worrying is a trans-
diagnostic problem (e.g., Kertz, Bigda‐Peyton, Rosmarin, & Björgvinsson, 2012;
McEvoy, Watson, Watkins, & Nathan, 2013). In line with this idea, there is certainly
evidence that more circumscribed threat perceptions (e.g., of physical harm after a
traumatic event; about being evaluated negatively by others) play a prominent role in
other anxiety pathology (e.g., post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)—see Gil &
Caspi, 2006; White, McManus, & Ehlers, 2008; social phobia—see Rapee, 1997;
Uren, Szabo, & Lovibond 2004).
cost estimates are about the same set of outcomes, as is the case using a nomothetic
approach. In contrast, if using an idiographic approach, comparisons across people
can be misleading if they concern very different kinds of outcomes. For example, if
Adele reports she is very likely to contract a minor illness whereas Bill reports he is
unlikely to die of cancer, it is difficult to judge whether Adele or Bill is more likely to
overestimate threat.
Thus far we have discussed explicit (self‐report) measures of threat perception,
which share the same potential shortcomings as virtually all other self‐reports (e.g.,
inaccuracies due to impression management). Despite their shortcomings, it is our
opinion that they are superior to the alternatives, which we will discuss very briefly.
For example, there is an extensive literature examining attentional biases to threaten-
ing information (see Bar‐Haim, Lamy, Pergamin, Bakermans‐Kranenburg, & Van
Ijzendoorn, 2007). Although we expect attentional biases to be associated with per-
ceptions of threat (as will be discussed more later), we propose that behavioral meas-
ures of these biases are at most an indirect index of perceived threat. Furthermore, a
measure of attentional bias would not enable the decomposition of perception of
threat into perceptions of probability and cost, which research suggests is important
(discussed in detail in the next section). One might also consider behavioral avoid-
ance/approach to be an indirect index of perceived threat. For example, the degree
that someone is very willing to approach a snake is an indication that they do not
perceive snakes as being as threatening, in contrast to someone who takes great pains
to avoid snakes. One problem with using behavioral avoidance/approach to measure
perceived threat is that this risks conflating perception of threat with anxiety (worry
and/or fear). Similarly, such measures may be confounded by general coping tenden-
cies/strategies (e.g., experiential avoidance).
Despite consistent claims by theorists of a close link between perceived threat and wor-
rying, still relatively few studies have directly tested this. Nevertheless, among those
studies that have, greater levels of perceived threat have consistently been associated
with higher levels of worry (Berenbaum, Thompson, & Bredemeier, 2007; Berenbaum,
Thompson, & Pomerantz, 2007; Bredemeier, Berenbaum, & Spielberg, 2012; Butler
& Mathews, 1983; Constans, 2001; MacLeod, Byrne, & Valentine, 1996; MacLeod,
Williams, & Bekerian, 1991). Specifically, several studies have shown that probability
estimates for future negative outcomes (e.g., “your health deteriorating,” “making a
mistake at work,” “doing something foolish in public”) are positively correlated with
levels of worry (Berenbaum, Thompson, & Bredemeier, 2007; Berenbaum, Thompson,
& Pomerantz, 2007; Bredemeier et al., 2012; Butler & Mathews, 1983; Constans,
2001; MacLeod et al., 1991; MacLeod et al., 1996), and some have also shown that
perceived cost estimates are positively associated with worry (Berenbaum, Thompson,
& Bredemeier, 2007; Berenbaum, Thompson, & Pomerantz, 2007; Bredemeier et al.,
2012; Butler & Mathews, 1983). Some additional (but indirect) support for a link
between worry/anxiety and elevated threat perceptions comes from experimental
studies showing that: (a) anxious and fearful/phobic individuals exhibit “online expec-
tancy biases” (e.g., higher expectations of harm) when presented with feared stimuli
(e.g., pictures of snakes; see Aue & Okon‐Singer, 2015); (b) individuals with GAD rate
28 Keith Bredemeier and Howard Berenbaum
negative events as more plausible when engaging in “episodic future thinking” (i.e.,
imagining future events; Wu, Szpunar, Godovich, Schacter, & Hofmann, 2015); and
(c) changes in perceived threat occur during cognitive‐behavioral therapy (CBT) for
anxiety disorders, which in turn predicts symptom improvement (e.g., Espejo, Gorlick,
& Castriotta, 2017).
But is perceived threat associated specifically with worry or, alternatively, is it associ-
ated just as strongly with other facets of emotional distress? It turns out that the
answer appears to depend on the specific aspect of the perception of threat, namely
the distinction between the perceived probabilities and the perceived costs. Andersen,
Spielman, and Bargh (1992) found that people who were depressed judged undesir-
able outcomes as more likely to occur than did non‐depressed individuals; they did
not examine worry and did not examine cost estimates. MacLeod et al. (1996) found
that depression was as strongly associated with (elevated) probability estimates for
unpleasant outcomes as was worry; they also did not examine cost estimates.
Berenbaum, Thompson, and Bredemeier (2007) examined both worry and depres-
sion, and both probability and cost estimates. They found that elevated probability
estimates were associated with symptoms of depression in addition to worry, whereas
elevated cost estimates were uniquely linked with worry (i.e., were not associated with
depression). Taking this finding one step further, we hypothesize that the tendency to
overestimate the likelihood of a negative outcome may be a common etiological fac-
tor in different forms of distress (and, thus, will be associated with any form of psy-
chopathology, and likely also elevated levels of general negative affect/neuroticism).
Conversely, the tendency to overestimate the cost of a negative outcome if it does
occur may be a specific factor driving worry, comparable to other biases that have
been found to be uniquely associated with other symptoms/disorders (e.g., underes-
timating positive outcomes in depression; see MacLeod & Byrne, 1996 and Miranda
& Mennin, 2007).
Carr (1974) proposed that perception of threat is “some multiplicative function of
the subjective cost of an event and its subjective probability” (p. 315). To our knowl-
edge, the potential multiplicative effect of probability and cost (which can be quanti-
tatively tested by examining whether the interaction of probability and cost predicts
worry over and above their independent predictive utility) was first evaluated by
Berenbaum, Thompson, and Pomerantz (2007). As predicted, they found that prob-
ability and cost estimates interactively predict worrying. More specifically, the link
between probability estimates and worrying was stronger among those with elevated
cost estimates, relative to those with lower cost estimates. However, Berenbaum,
Thompson, and Bredemeier (2007) failed to replicate this finding. A potential expla-
nation for this discrepancy emerged from a study by Bredemeier et al. (2012), which
explored differential associations between worry and expected negative outcomes
across different timeframes. This study found that the interactive effect of probability
and cost estimates predicting levels of worry was stronger when participants were
considering outcomes far into the future (i.e., the next 10 years) than when consider-
ing more proximal outcomes (i.e., the next month or year). Conversely, the direct
relationship between probability estimates and worry was strongest when participants
were considering the closest timeframe (i.e., the next month). A similar three‐way
interaction between perceived probability, perceived cost, and timeframe was found
within‐subjects in the ecological momentary assessment (EMA) study conducted by
Berenbaum et al. (2018). Specifically, the impact of high cost estimates was stronger
Perceptions of Threat 29
when perceived probability was high, particularly when the anticipated outcome was
further in the future. What is particularly important about this result is that it was
found within‐subjects, which means it cannot be accounted for by individual differ-
ences between subjects (e.g., in neuroticism, depression, intolerance of uncertainty).
Results from these studies highlight the importance of proximity in evaluating the
potential impact of threat perceptions, consistent with other theoretical models/
perspectives (e.g., the threat‐immense model; see Fanselow, 1994). The differential
relations between worry and perceptions of threat across timeframes may reflect ten-
dencies of those who are prone to worrying to: (a) view threats as increasing (see
Riskind, 1997), possibly leading to greater distortions over time; and/or (b) avoid
thinking concretely about potential negative outcomes (see Borkovec et al., 2004;
Stober & Borkovec, 2002), which undermines corrective information processing as
well as active problem‐solving (for further discussion of potential mechanisms, see
Bredemeier et al. (2012)).
Collectively, these findings provide strong empirical support for the proposed link
between perceived threat and worrying. Also, these findings support the critical dis-
tinction between probability and cost estimates in research on threat perceptions.
The importance of this distinction is further supported by work exploring hypothe-
sized antecedents (and, thus, potential causes) of elevated perceptions of threat, dis-
cussed next.
Understanding the factors that contribute to elevated perceptions of threat has impor-
tant clinical implications (e.g., for developing alternative targets for treatment, and
possibly even prevention). Unfortunately, only a few studies have directly explored
correlates of perceived threat (Berenbaum, Thompson, & Bredemeier, 2007;
Berenbaum, Thompson, & Pomerantz, 2007; Bredemeier & Berenbaum, 2008). In
those that have, the distinction between probability and cost estimates again emerged
as critical, as different factors have been linked with each. In addition, a number of
studies, not necessarily concerned with worry or perceptions of threat, have examined
factors that influence likelihood estimations.
Negative Beliefs
Negative views of the self are linked with anxiety and worrying (e.g., low self‐efficacy—
Bandura, 1988), and are considered a key factor that can foster stronger expectations
of negative outcomes (see Beck & Bredemeier, 2016; Beck & Emery, 1985). In line
with this idea, Berenbaum, Thompson, and Bredemeier (2007) found that individuals
who perceived themselves as less competent reported higher probability estimates of
negative outcomes. Likewise, holding negative views about the world arguably should
foster negative expectations. In line with this idea, Berenbaum, Thompson, and
Bredemeier (2007) found that perceiving others as more malevolent is also associated
with higher probability estimates. Importantly, elevated probability estimates were
found to (partially) mediate the relationship between both perceptions of one’s own
competence and the benevolence/malevolence of others with increased worry
(Berenbaum, Thompson, & Bredemeier, 2007).
30 Keith Bredemeier and Howard Berenbaum
Intolerance of Uncertainty
Another key (cognitive) factor linked to worrying is intolerance of uncertainty, which
can be conceptualized as the tendency to experience negative reactions in response to
uncertain situations (e.g., see Dugas, Buhr, & Ladouceur, 2004; Koerner & Dugas,
2006). Importantly, intolerance of uncertainty seems to be multidimensional (see
Birrell, Meares, Wilkinson, & Freeston, 2011). Specifically, research supports the
importance of distinguishing individuals’ tendencies to: (a) desire predictability (i.e.,
“prospective anxiety”); and (b) feel paralyzed in the face of uncertainty (i.e., “uncer-
tainty paralysis” or “inhibitory anxiety”). Dugas et al. (2004) proposed that one way
in which intolerance of uncertainty may lead to excessive worry is by contributing to
overestimation of threat. In line with this proposal, Bredemeier and Berenbaum (2008)
found that both of these facets of intolerance of uncertainty are linked with perceived
probabilities of negative outcomes, but differentially. Specifically, uncertainty paralysis
was associated with probability estimates in a positive and linear fashion, such that
higher probability estimates were linked with greater feelings of paralysis when uncer-
tain about the future. Perhaps this tendency is linked with lower perceptions of control
(which in turn could foster more negative expectations), or even objectively greater
risk in certain situations (e.g., when immediate action is needed). Conversely, desire for
predictability was not associated with probability estimates for negative outcomes in
general, but was negatively associated with probability estimates for those outcomes
with relatively low base rates (e.g., being in a natural disaster, your home being robbed).
These findings are consistent with work on a related trait, referred to as the “need for
cognitive closure” (i.e., the desire for definite knowledge, to end further information
processing and judgment), which is linked with biases in information processing and
decision‐making that seem to foster increased certainty (see Berenbaum, Bredemeier,
& Thompson, 2008; Kruglanski & Webster, 1996). In a recent experimental study,
Chen and Lovibond (2016) found that intolerance of uncertainty was positively associ-
ated with expectations and post hoc covariation estimations of an unpleasant event
(seeing an aversive picture) under ambiguous circumstances (when the objective likeli-
hood was not known). The proposed causal link between intolerance of uncertainty
and probability estimates is further supported by a study showing that manipulating
beliefs about uncertainty influences estimations of the likelihood that feared conse-
quences will occur (Deschenes, Dugas, Radomsky, & Buhr, 2010).
People who are more intolerant of uncertainty are also thought to expect negative
outcomes to be more costly (Dugas et al., 2004), perhaps because the uncertainty inher-
ent when considering the future adds to their distress, and/or because the desire to know
what will happen in the future leads them consider the worst possible scenario/conse-
quences (i.e., “catastrophize”). In line with this proposal, Bredemeier and Berenbaum
(2008) found that both desire for predictability and uncertainty paralysis were positively
associated with estimated costs of negative outcomes. Further, cost estimates partially
mediated the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty and worrying.
of perfectionism; see Frost & DiBartolo, 2002; Stöber & Joormann, 2001) may
contribute to the tendency to perceive negative outcomes as more costly (as opposed
to more likely). One reason to expect this is that the higher one’s standards, the
greater the discrepancy will be between actual outcomes and the outcomes people
think ought to occur, which in turn will increase the perceived cost of the outcome.
This hypothesis is based in part on work rooted in self‐discrepancy theory (Higgins,
1987) which suggests that actual–ought discrepancies are associated with anxiety
(Strauman, 1992). Consistent with this proposal, a unique association between higher
standards and cost estimates has been shown and replicated (Berenbaum, Thompson,
and Bredemeier, 2007). Further, Saw, Berenbaum, and Okazaki (2013) found links
between standards and worrying in specific life domains (e.g., academics, family rela-
tions). In addition, they found that cross‐cultural differences (between Asian
Americans and White Americans) in standards within particular life/performance
domains explained cross‐cultural differences in levels of worry within those same
domains. Also, findings from this study suggest that personal standards may in part
reflect perceived expectations of significant others (e.g., parents), as these were highly
correlated within several domains.
Goal investment
Finally, there is some evidence that individuals who are more invested in their goals
(measured by asking research participants to indicate how important it is to them to
achieve a specific goal) tend to worry more (Pomerantz, Saxon, & Oishi, 2000). We
hypothesize that this is the case because greater investment in goals will lead to increased
cost estimates. Further, there is some evidence for a specific link between particular goals
and worries—that is, the more an individual is invested in a certain goal (e.g., doing well
in school), the more likely he or she is to worry about possible negative outcomes within
that domain (e.g., failing an exam). For example, Eaton and Pomerantz (1999) found
that parents who were more personally invested in their children’s academic success wor-
ried more about their children’s school performance. Likewise, Pomerantz and Shim
(2008) found that day‐to‐day variability in children’s academic worries and school invest-
ment were associated, such that children worried more about their academic perfor-
mance on days that they were more invested in school. There is some evidence that the
link between goal investment and worrying is mediated by cost estimates, at least as
indicated by reports of how upset people think they would be should the undesirable
outcome come true (Eaton & Pomerantz, 1999; Pomerantz et al., 2000). Additional
work is needed to determine whether these findings will generalize to other domains of
life/functioning (e.g., physical health). More importantly, more research is needed to
directly test the link between goal investment and cost estimates.
The man who is guilty of the theft is frequently the first to cry,
“Stop thief!”
The Hyena.
CHAPTER VI.
Serious Adventures.
Effects of Prohibition.
Mankind have seldom a strong desire for any thing lawful, that is
easily obtained. We are not driven to our duty by laws so much as by
ambition. If it were enacted that persons of high rank only should
dine upon three dishes, the lower grade would desire to have three;
but if commoners were permitted to have as many dishes as they
pleased, whilst the rich were limited to two, the inferior class would
not exceed that number. If gaming were reckoned ungenteel, cards
and dice would lose half their attraction. In the history of the Duke of
D’Ossuna, there is a remarkable instance given of this perverse
nature in man.
A rich Neapolitan merchant prided himself upon not having once
set his foot out of the city during the space of forty-eight years. This
coming to the ears of the duke, the merchant had notice sent him
that he was to take no journey out of the kingdom, under the penalty
of 10,000 crowns. The merchant smiled at receiving the order; but,
afterwards, not being able to fathom the reason of the prohibition, he
grew so uneasy that he paid the fine, and actually took a short trip
out of the kingdom.—English paper.
Saturday Night.