VINH UNIVERSITY

ECONOMICAL SCHOOL – BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DEPARTMENT

eh&gg

ECONOMIC STATISTICS
“ Determinants to the GDP growth: a case study of Australiain the period of
1980 – 2021 ”

Instructor: Nguyen The Lan

Group: 03 – ES HQ 2023

NGHỆ AN- 2023

 TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 4

LIST OF ABBREVIATION .............................................................................................. 6

LIST OF STUDENTGROUPS .......................................................................................... 7

PART 1: INTRODUCE ..................................................................................................... 8

1.1 Necessity of the topic .................................................................................................... 8

1.2 Scope of the topic.......................................................................................................... 8

PART 2: DATA DESCRIPTION .............................................................................................. 9

2.1 Data source: ......................................................................................................................... 9

2.2 Data series............................................................................................................................ 9

2.3 Data frequency ..................................................................................................................... 9

2.4 Graph ................................................................................................................................ 10

2.4.1 The chart shows the export situation in the period 1980-2020 ..................................................... 10
2.4.2 The chart shows the inflation situation in the period 1980 – 2020 .............................................. 10
2.4.3 GDP growth rate chart in the period 1980 – 2020 ......................................................................... 11
2.4.4 The chart shows the import situation in the period 1980 – 2020 .................................................. 12
2.4.5 The chart shows investment in the period 1980-2015.................................................................... 12
2.4.6 The chart shows the rate of foreign investment in the period 1980 – 2020 ................................. 13

2.5 Descriptive statistics table ................................................................................................. 13

PART 3: DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL .............................................................................. 21

3.1 Multiple linear regression model ................................................................................ 21

3.2 Naive model ................................................................................................................ 21

3.3 Moving average model ............................................................................................... 22

3.4 Simple exponential model........................................................................................... 22

3.5 Accuracy measures ..................................................................................................... 22

3.5.1 MAE ............................................................................................................................................ 22
3.5.2 MSE ............................................................................................................................................. 23
3.5.3 MAPE .......................................................................................................................................... 23
3.5.4 RMSE .......................................................................................................................................... 23

2
PART 4: ANALYSIS OF THE MODELS ........................................................................ 25

4.1 Lincar model ..................................................................................................................... 25

4.2 Data ................................................................................................................................... 26

4.3 Significance test ................................................................................................................. 28

4.4 Goodness-of-fit test of the model ....................................................................................... 29

4.5 Accuracy measures of the models...................................................................................... 29

• Multiple regression function ........................................................................................................... 29
• Regression ........................................................................................................................................ 31
• Simple averages................................................................................................................................ 33
• Moving Averages............................................................................................................................. 33
• Simple exponential smoothing ....................................................................................................... 34

4.6 Comparison over the accuracy of the models .................................................................... 34

CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................... 36

3
 LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1:Descripyive statistics ............................................................................................... 14
Table 2.2: Data patterns ........................................................................................................... 17
Table 4.1: Regression statistics ................................................................................................ 26
Table 4.2: Anova...................................................................................................................... 26
Table 4.3: ................................................................................................................................. 27
Table 4.4: ................................................................................................................................. 30
Table 4.5: Mean squared squared error.................................................................................... 31
Table 4.6: Minitab output for 5 predictor variables ................................................................. 31
Table 4.7: Comparison over the accuracy of the models ......................................................... 34

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 LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 2.1: The chart shows the export situation in the period 1980-2020 ............................. 10
Figure 2.2: The chart shows the inflation situation in the period 1980 – 2020 ....................... 10
Figure 2.3: GDP growth rate chart in the period 1980 – 2020 ................................................ 11
Figure 2.4: The chart shows the import situation in the period 1980 – 2020 .......................... 12
Figure 2.5: The chart shows investment in the period 1980-2015 ........................................... 12
Figure 2.6: The chart shows the rate of foreign investment in the period 1980 – 2020 .......... 13
Figure 2.0.7: Trend and Cyclical components of an Annual time series such as housing cots
.................................................................................................................................................. 16
Figure 2.0.8: Electrical usage for Washington Water Power company, 1980 - 1991.............. 17
Figure 4.1: Simple average ...................................................................................................... 33
Figure 4.2: Moving average ..................................................................................................... 33
Figure 4.3: Simple exponential smoothing .............................................................................. 34

5
 LIST OF ABBREVIATION

NO ABBREVIATION EXPANSION
1 GDP Gross domestic product
2 WB World bank
3 GCF Gross capital formation
4 CPI Inflation, consumer prices
5 EXP Exports of goods services
6 IMP Imports of goods services

7 FDI Foreign direct investment, net inflows

8 ME Mean error
9 MEA Mean absolute error
10 MPE Mean percentage error
11 MAPE Mean absolute percentage error
12 MSE Mean squared error
13 RMSE Root mean squared error

6
 LIST OF STUDENTGROUPS
(Group 3)

FIRST AND LAST RATING

NO STUDENT ID NOTE
NAME ( A, B, C, D,…)

1 Nguyen Thanh An 215734010110267 C (6,4)

2 Pham Quang Cuong 215734010110386 B (7,9)

3 Nguyen Thi Mai Lan 215734010110243 C (6,4)

4 Nguyen Thi Diem Quynh 215734010110291 B+ (8,4)

5 Ngo Tri Thuong 215734010110275 A (8,9)

7
 PART 1: INTRODUCE
1.1 Necessity of the topic

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the important indicators reflecting the final
results of the production process of the economy. GDP is a basic indicator to evaluate
the growth process and economic restructuring of a country, evaluate the efficiency of
the economy's production of social products, and make international comparisons. GDP
is also one of the important bases for countries to make plans on spending, investment,
and accumulation in the economy, and building national economic development
strategies. Therefore, the study of GDP fluctuations of a country is not only interested
by many researchers, but politicians and heads of state are also interested in GDP
fluctuations to make executive decisions. country.
Economic growth and development is the first and foremost goal of all countries in
the world, a key measure of progress in each stage of development of the country,
including Australia, especially in the developing world. the process of developing the
country and pursuing goals with other countries in the world. To do that requires us to
study the growth rate of GDP over the years (this is also a factor of interest to the
country's macroeconomic policy). And to understand GDP growth rate, we need to
understand the factors affecting GDP growth rate: Gross capital formation (% of GDP);
Inflation, consumer prices (annual%); Exports of goods and services (% of GDP);
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP). So here we use statistical analysis of data
to determine a clear relationship between the independent variable (GDP growth) and
the research dependent variable (Gross capital formation (% of GDP); Inflation,
consumer prices (annual). %); Exports of goods and services (% of GDP); Imports of
goods and services (% of GDP) This relationship can then be used to forecast the future.
and develop statistical models (usually using regression analysis) to determine which
relationships best describe or predict the behavior of the variables under study. Futures
are applied to the model to make forecasts for specific variables.
In summary, studying the trends of GDP growth, the factors affecting GDP, helps the
government to change policies to achieve the set goals to promote economic growth.
These are the macro issues that everyone working in the economic field is interested in.
That's why our group decided to analyze and make a research report on the factors
affecting the GDP growth rate for Australia through the multiple association model to
forecast the economy in the future.
1.2 Scope of the topic

- Time: 1980 – 2021

- Country: Australia

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 PART 2: DATA DESCRIPTION

2.1 Data source:

- World bank data– World Bank

Links: https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx

- Using data from International Financial Statistics (IFS)

Link: https://data.imf.org/?sk=4C514D48-B6BA-49ED-8AB9-
52B0C1A0179B&sId=1390030341854

2.2 Data series

- There are 6 types of data used:

• GDP – growth (%)

• Gross capital formation (% of GDP)
• Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
• Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
• Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
• Foreign Direct Investment – FDI ( annual %)

2.3 Data frequency

• Annual

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 2.4 Graph

2.4.1 The chart shows the export situation in the period 1980-2020

Figure 2.1: The chart shows the export situation in the period 1980-2020
Comment :
+ From 1980 to 1984, the export rate fell to the lowest level of 13.89%.
+ From 1984 to 1990, the export rate did not change significantly. From 1992 onwards,
the export rate increased rapidly to 23.6% in 2010.
In 2004, the export rate reached the lowest level of 17.6%.
+ In 2018, the export growth rate was the highest at 24.76%
2.4.2 The chart shows the inflation situation in the period 1980 – 2020

Figure 2.2: The chart shows the inflation situation in the period 1980 – 2020

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Comment :
In general, the inflation rate fluctuates erratically.
+ In 1980 inflation increased to over 10%, by 1984 inflation tended to decrease to 4%
and started to increase in 1986.
+ Period 1986 - 1992:
In 1986 - 1990, although the inflation rate was not as high as in 1980, it was still above
7% and in 1992 it decreased to 1.6%.
+ The period 1992 - 2020 is quite stable below 5%
+ The highest inflation rate in 1982 was 11.65%.
+ Inflation rate accounted for the lowest proportion of 0.166% in 1992

2.4.3 GDP growth rate chart in the period 1980 – 2020

Figure 2.3: GDP growth rate chart in the period 1980 – 2020
Comment :
In general, GDP growth rate fluctuated strongly.
+ In 1980 GDP reached 3.0% and in 1984 it decreased to -2.2%. Then increased to 4.7%
(1986).
+ In 1986, it reached 4.7%. From 1986-1990 GDP increased and decreased
continuously, from 1990-1992 decreased sharply to -0.3%.
+ By 1994 GDP increased to 4%
+ From 1994 to 2018 increased and decreased erratically and by 2020 GDP growth rate
decreased to 0%

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+ Thus, the highest GDP growth in 1988 reached 5.9%, the lowest in 1984 reached -
2.2%.
2.4.4 The chart shows the import situation in the period 1980 – 2020

Figure 2.4: The chart shows the import situation in the period 1980 – 2020
Comment
+ From 1980 to 1996, the import rate fluctuated but not significantly
+ In the 1996 period, it started to increase to 18.001%, then changed erratically but
remained at 20% until 2020 began to decrease below 20%
+ In 2010, the import proportion reached the highest, accounting for 26.015%.
+ In 1995, the lowest import rate was 15%.
2.4.5 The chart shows investment in the period 1980-2015

Figure 2.5: The chart shows investment in the period 1980-2015

Comment
+ In general, the investment rate fluctuates erratically

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+ In 1982 and 1990, the investment rate accounted for 30.0%, in 1992 it fluctuated at
23.99%.
+ In 1982 and 1990, the highest investment rate was 30.0%.
+ In 2019 the lowest investment rate is 23.66
2.4.6 The chart shows the rate of foreign investment in the period 1980 – 2020

Figure 2.6: The chart shows the rate of foreign investment in the period 1980 – 2020

Comment:
+ The period 1980 - 2002 did not change significantly. The rate of foreign investment
fluctuates below 20%.
+ Period 2002 - 2006:
The period 2002 - 2004 showed signs of rapid increase reaching 44.1% in 2004
In the 2004 - 2006 period, the proportion of investment capital decreased sharply to -
25% in 2006
+ In the period 2006 - 2020, there are many insignificant changes, the rate of foreign
investment capital reaches over 29%, specifically:
The lowest investment rate during this period was 29% in 2010
The highest rate of foreign investment capital in this period was 66.55% in 2012
2.5 Descriptive statistics table

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 Table 2.1:Descripyive statistics
( Source: Self-calculated group on Excel 2010 software)

Minimum : Use function MIN

Maxnimum : Use function MAX
Mean: Use function AVERAGEA
Standard Error: Use function STDEV

Explain:
- Minimum column: the minimum value of the variable.
- Column Maximum: the maximum value of the variable.
- Mean column: the average value of the variable. This is the column that has
many explanatory meanings in the table.
- Column Standard Error (SE) : Standard deviation of the variable. The smaller
this value is, the more likely the answers will not be much different. if this value
is high, it shows that the survey respondents have very different opinions n for
that variable, so the difference is quite a lot.
- Median column: Returns the median of the given numbers.
- Standard Deviation column: measure the dispersion of the values from the mean
- Sample Variance column: a measure of the difference between actual and
expected results by subtracting the minimum from the largest value
- Kurtosis column: used to identify outliers (extreme values) in the given data set

14
 - Skewness column: calculation function that returns the skewness of a
distribution.
- Range column: A group of cells is called a Range in Excel
Comment:
- We can see, Maximum's index of 22.73312 (IMP) shows that the United States
is consuming more imported goods and services than it exports, thereby
increasing foreign debt and increasing financial risk.
- Minimum index is -2.22454 (GDP) which can show that the US is facing many
difficulties in economic development.
- The MEDIAN index of 20.31514 IMP) can show that the average standard of
living of the people in that country is quite stable and there is not too much
disparity between different families and social classes.
- The Standard Deviation Index of 219E+10 (FDI) indicates that the degree of
dispersion of economic values within the country is large.
- The skewness index is -1.3031 (GDP) which indicates that the data distribution
for that country is close to the normal distribution, i.e., the distribution is
symmetric and balanced between the large and smaller values of the mean.
=> Descriptive statistics just help describe and understand the properties of a
particular data set by giving short summaries of the data samples and parameters.
2.6 Data patterns
2.6.1 type of data use forecasting
Generally, two types of data are of interest to the forecaster.
- Cross-sectional data are observations collected at a single point in time.
- A time series consists of data that are collected, recorded, or observed over
successive increments of time.
2.6.2 time series data patterns
• Horizontal (stationary):
- When data collected over time fluctuate around a constant level or mean, a
horizontal pattern exists. This type of series is said to be stationary in its mean.
- Monthly sales for a food product that do not increase or decrease consistently
over an extended period would be considered to have a horizontal pattern.

• Trend (non-stationary):
- When data grow or decline over several time periods, a trend pattern exists.
- Figure 2.1 shows the long-term growth (trend) of a time series variable (such as
housing costs) with data points one year apart. A linear trend line has been drawn
to illustrate this growth. Although the variable housing costs have not increased

15
 every year, the movement of the variable has been generally upward between
periods 1 and 20. Examples of the basic forces that affeet and help explain the
trend of a series are population growth, price inflation, technological change,
consumer preferences, and productivity increases.

• Cyclical:
- When observations exhibit rises and falls that are not of a fixed period, a cyclical
pattern exists.
- The cyclical component is the wavelike fluctuation around the trend that is
usually affected by general economic conditions. A cyclical component, if it
exists, typically completes one cycle over several years.
- Cyclical fluctuations are often influenced by changes in economic expansions
and contractions, commonly referred to as the business cycle.
- Figure 2.1 also shows a time series with a cyclical component. The cyclical
peak at year 9 illustrates an economic expansion and the cyclical valley at year
12 an economic contraction.

Figure 2.0.7: Trend and Cyclical components of an Annual time series such as
housing cots
• Seasonal:
- When observations are influenced by seasonal factors, a seasonal pattern exists.
- The seasonal component refers to a pattern of change that repeats itself year after
year.
- For a monthly series, the seasonal component measures the variability of the
series each January, each February, and so on. For a quarterly series, there are
four seasonal elements, one for each quarter.
- Figure 2.2 shows that electrical usage for Washington Water Power residential
customers is highest in the first quarter (winter months) of each year.
- Seasonal variation may reflect weather conditions, school schedules, holidays,
or length of calendar month.

16
 Figure 2.0.8: Electrical usage for Washington Water Power company,
1980 - 1991
- The following are the data patterns exported from the "descriptive data table"
and run the results on Minitab

2.6.2 Data partterns

We relied on 10 correlation coefficients to be able to see the following characteristics:
Table 2.2: Data patterns
Data
Vars Graph
patterns

GDP Horizontal

- The data series is not fixed.

- Latency is always close to zero.

17
 - That shows that consecutive values of a time series are not
related to each other

INV Trend

- The data series is not fixed

- The correlation coefficients are significantly non-zero in the
first few lags and tend to decrease towards zero
- This can be seen the decreasing trend of the values from year to
year

INF Trend

- Fixed data series

- Data collected over time oscillates around a non-significantly
moving average
Thereby, we can see the erratic up and down changes of those
values over the years

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EXP Trend

- The data series is not fixed

- The correlation coefficients are significantly non-zero in the
first few lags and tend to decrease towards 0
- This can be seen the decreasing trend of the values from year
to year

IMP Trend

- The data series is not fixed

- The correlation coefficients are significantly non-zero in the
first few lags and tend to decrease towards 0
- This can be seen the decreasing trend of the values from year to
year

19
FDI Stationary

- Fixed data series

- Data collected over time fluctuates around a slightly volatile
average
Thereby, we can see the erratic up and down changes of those
values over the years

20
 PART 3: DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL

3.1 Multiple linear regression model

Model:

− 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝 = 𝛽- 1 + 𝛽- 2 *GCF + 𝛽- 3*IN + 𝛽- 4*EX + 𝛽- 5* IM + 𝛽- 6*FDI

𝐺𝐷𝑃 *
This linear regression model includes 6 variables:

• A dependent variable (GDP - growth)

• Five explanatory variables
- Gross capital formation – GCF : Invest
- Inflation, consumer prices – IN : Inflation rate
- Exports of goods and services - EX : Export rate.
- Imports of goods and services - IM: Import rate.
- Foreign Direct Investment - FDI : Foreign investment capital.
Apply the method of least squares OLS to calculate.
This method makes sense to use a representative regression function, with a
sample of 95 pairs of observations (Yi,Xi) with i=1 ….n.
ð Extract function: Yi= β1 + β2 *Xi with values that are as close to the actual
values as possible.
(This data is taken from World Bank data to serve to run the Regression
Model).
3.2 Naive model
• Naive methods are used to develop simple models that assume that very recent data
provide the best predictors of the future.
- Often young businesses face the dilemma of trying to forecast with very small data
sets.
- This situation creates a real problem, since many forecasting techniques require
large amounts of data.
=> Naive forecasts are one possible solution, since they are based solely on the most
recent information available.
- Naive forecasts assume that recent periods are the best predictors of the future.
- The simplest model is: Yt+1= Yt
=> The naive forecast for each period is the immediately preceding observation.
=> One hundred percent of the weight is given to the current value of the series.
=> The naïve forecast is sometimes called the “no change” forecast.
In short-term weather forecasting, the “no change” forecast occurs often.
Tomorrow’s weather will be much like today’s weather.

21
=> Since the naive forecast discards all other observations, this scheme tracks changes
very rapidly.
3.3 Moving average model
- The method of simple averages uses the mean of all the data to forecast.
- What if the analyst is more concerned with recent observations? A constant number
of data points can be specified at the outset and a mean computed for the most recent
observations.
- The term moving average is used to describe this approach. As each new observation
becomes available, a new mean is computed by adding the newest value and
dropping the oldest. This moving average is then used to forecast the next period.

3.4 Simple exponential model

- The method of moving averages takes into account only the most recent
observations.
- Simple exponential smoothing provides an exponentially weighted moving average
of all previously observed values.
- The model is often appropriate for data with no predictable upward or downward
trend.
3.5 Accuracy measures
3.5.1 MAE

∑"
!#$ |#! |
MAE =
$

Moving Average Envelope (MAE) is a technical analysis tool used to measure price
volatility and help investors identify buy and sell points in the market.
Specifically, MAE involves constructing two borders around a moving average based
on the closing price of an asset over a certain period of time. A moving average is
usually the average of an asset's closing price over a number of recent days, for example
20 days or 50 days.
The moving average will be the center line of the MAE, while the upper and lower
borders will be lines parallel to the center line and separated by a specified width.
The extent of price dispersion within this range is often used to gauge an asset's
volatility and look for potential buy and sell points.
For example, if an asset's price rises above the upper line of the MAE, it could be a
signal that the asset is overvalued and may drop in price in the future.
Conversely, if the asset price falls below the lower line of the MAE, it could be a
signal that the asset is undervalued and is likely to increase in price in the future.

22
 MAE is often used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to provide trend
information and trading signals. However, it also has the disadvantage that it can be
biased by short-term market fluctuations, so investors need to use it in conjunction with
other indicators to make key investment decisions. corpse.
3.5.2 MSE
∑"
!#$ #
%
MSE =
$
The mean square error (MSE) of an estimator (a procedure used to estimate an
unobserved quantity) the mean square of the measurement error – i.e. the mean squared
difference average between the estimated value and the estimated value of mean . mse
is a hazard function corresponding to the expected value of the squared error loss. The
fact that mse is almost always positive (rather than 0) is either due to randomness or
because the estimator doesn't take into account information that could produce a more
accurate estimate.
MSE is roughly referred to as the mean squared error value or the mean squared
error. The problem with talking about the mean error for a given statistical model is that
it is very difficult to determine how much of the error is due to the model and how much
is random. The mean square error (MSE) provides a statistic that allows researchers to
make such claims. mse simply refers to the mean of the squared difference of predicted
and observed parameters.
3.5.3 MAPE
&!
∑"
!#$ |' |%&&
!
MAPE =
$

The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), also known as mean absolute
percentage deviation, is a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting method in
statistics.
3.5.4 RMSE

∑"
!#$ #
%
RMSE = !
$

The mean square error (RMSE) is the standard deviation of the residual (prediction
error). The residual is a measure of the distance of the regression line data points; RMSE
is a measure of how spread these residuals are. In other words, it tells you how
concentrated the data is around the best-fit line. Mean squared error is commonly used
in climate analysis, forecasting, and regression to confirm test results.

23
The root mean square error (RMSE) is a measure of how well a model is performing. It
does this by measuring the difference between the predicted value and the actual value.
The smaller the r-mse value, the smaller the error, and the highest estimate shows that
the model can achieve reliability.

24
 PART 4: ANALYSIS OF THE MODELS
4.1 Lincar model

− 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝 = 𝛽- 1 + 𝛽- 2 *GCF + 𝛽- 3*INF + 𝛽- 4*EXP + 𝛽- 5* IMP + 𝛽- 6*FDI

𝐺𝐷𝑃 *

= -10,49299 + 0,58623*GCF – 0,27434*IN + 0,03368*Ex –

0,04898* IM – (2,07353E-11)*FDI

(SE) (5,018286) (0,186176) (0,117733) (0,19033) (0,214923) (1,31E-11)

(t) (-2,09095) (3,148821) (-2,33024) (0,177005) (-0,22792) (-1,58461)

Comment:

✓ When GCF increases by 1 unit, the average of GDP- growth increases by 0.58623
units provided that IN, EX, IM, FDI remain constant.

✓ When IN increases by 1 unit, the average of GDP- growth decreases by 0.27434 units
with constant GCF, EX, IM, FDI.

✓ When EX increases by 1 unit, the average of GDP- growth increases by 0.03368 units
with Inv, CPI, Im unchanged.

✓ When IM increases by 1 unit, the average of GDP- growth decreases by 0.04898 units
with constant GCF, IN, EX, FDI.

✓ When FDI increases by 1 unit, the average of GDP- growth decreases by 2.07353E-
11 units with constant GCF, IN, EX, IM.
=> From the above parameters, we have statistically valid evidence up GDP. The
analysis results have shown empirical evidence on the impact of explanatory factors on
the growth rate of GDP, specifically:
• The relationship between GDP growth rate and investment is inversely
proportional (bearing the –) since ̂ of the variable GCF = 0.58623 > 0, ̂ of the
variable GDP = –10.49299 < 0
• The relationship between GDP growth rate and inflation rate is proportional
(bearing the + sign) because ̂ of the variable IN = – 0.27434< 0, ̂ of the variable
GDP = –10.49299 < 0

25
 • The relationship between GDP growth rate and exports is proportional (bearing
the + sign) because ̂ of the variable Ex = 0.03368 > 0, ̂ of the variable GDP = –
10.49299 < 0
• The relationship between GDP growth rate and imports is inversely
proportional (bearing the -sign) because ̂ of variable Im = -0,04898 < 0, ̂ of the
variable GDP = –10,49299 < 0
• The relationship between GDP growth rate and foreign investment is inversely
proportional (bearing the –) sign because ̂ of the variable FDI = 2.07353E-11 <
0, ̂ of the variable GDP = –10,49299 < 0
4.2 Data

Table 4.1: Regression statistics

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,574895952
R Square 0,330505355
Adjusted R Square 0,237519988
Standard Error 1,325872438
Observations 42
𝑬𝑺𝑺
Conformance (factor of determination): R2 = 𝑻𝑺𝑺 = 0,330505355 = 33,05053%

Adjusted R Square = 0,237519988 = 23,752%

Observations: N = 42
According to the above date, we see that R has a value in the range of 0 to 1 (R =
0,574895952). When R gradually increases to 1, the accuracy is higher, through which
we can see that the accuracy of the regression model being investigated is 33,05053%
for the natural synthesis of the dependent variables.belong.
Table 4.2: Anova
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 5 31,2419 6,248379 3,55438 0,010290954
Residual 36 63,28576 1,757938
Total 41 94,52765

26
From the above data, we see:

• The sum of squares of errors explained by the model: ESS = 31,2419

• The sum of squares of residuals: RSS = 63,28576
• The sum of squares of error: TSS = 94,52765
In there:
- TSS: is the sum of squares of all the deviations between Yi and the mean.
- ESS: is the sum of squares of all deviations between the value of the variable
Y calculated by the function
- Regression sample with mean
- RSS: the sum of squares of all the deviations between the observed values of
the variable Y and its values obtained from the sample regression function.
Table 4.3:

In there:
- Intercept : 𝛽- 1
- Gross capital formation (% of GDP): 𝛽- 2
- INF (% of GDP): 𝛽- 3
- Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) : 𝛽- 4
- Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) : 𝛽- 5
- Foreign Direct Investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$): 𝛽- 6
Explanation:
With a confidence interval of 90%:

- The 90% confidence interval of 𝛽- first is (-18.9654 ; -2.02063)

- The 90% confidence interval of 𝛽- 2is (0.271915 ; 0.900557)

- The 90% confidence interval of 𝛽- 3 is (-0.47312; -0.07558)

27
 - The 90% confidence interval of 𝛽- 4 is (-0.28764;0.355023)

- The 90% confidence interval of 𝛽- 5is (-0.41184;0.31387)

- The 90% confidence interval of 𝛽- 6is (-4,28275; 5,80322)

With a confidence interval of 95%:

- The 95% confidence interval of 𝛽- first is (-20.67054824; -0.315435135)

- The 95% confidence interval of 𝛽- 2 is (0.20865297; 0.963819455)

- The 95% confidence interval of 𝛽- 3 is (-0.513120304; -0.035573127)

- The 95% confidence interval of 𝛽- 4 is (-0.35231778; 0.419696352)

- The 95% confidence interval of 𝛽- 5 is (-0.484869236; 0.386900515)

- The 95% confidence interval of 𝛽- 6is (-4.72739; 5.80322)

4.3 Significance test

We have: Statistics t (α/2, n –6) = t0.25 (36) =2.028094001

Hypothesis testing:

H0 : β1 = 0→𝛽- first€ (-20.6705; -0.31544 )then we reject𝐻0 , accept𝐻first.

H1 : β1 0
=> When rejecting𝐻0, accept𝐻1 then the coefficient is statistically significant.

H0 : β2 = 0→𝛽- 2€ (0.208653; 0.963819)then we reject𝐻0, accept𝐻first.

H1 : β2 ≠ 0
= >Variable𝑋2 (GCF) has an impact on the variable Y(GDP) and is statistically
significant.

H0 : β3 = 0→𝛽- 3€(-0.51312 ; -0.03557 )then we reject𝐻0 , accept𝐻first.

H1 : β3 ≠ 0
= >Variable𝑋3(IN) has an impact on the variable Y(GDP) and is statistically significant.

H0 : β4 = 0→𝛽- 4€(-0.35232 ; 0.419696)then we reject𝐻0, accept𝐻first.

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H1 : β4 ≠ 0
= >Variable𝑋4(Ex) has an impact on the variable Y(GDP) and is statistically
significant.

H0 : β5 = 0→𝛽- 5€(-0.48487; 0.386901) then we reject𝐻0, accept𝐻first.

H1 : β5 ≠ 0
=> Variables𝑋5 (IM) has an impact on the variable Y(GDP) and is statistically
significant.

H0 : β6 = 0→𝛽- 6 €(-4.7E-11;5.8E-12)then we reject𝐻0, accept𝐻first.

H1 : β6 ≠ 0
=> Variables𝑋6 (FDI) has an impact on the variable Y(GDP) and is statistically
significant.
4.4 Goodness-of-fit test of the model

Conformity check:
- H0 : R2 = 0
- H1 : R2 0
•If R = 0, the explanatory variables cannot explain the dependent variables.
•If R 0, the explanatory variables can explain the dependent variables
=> model fit.
$! /('())
Test value: F= " $ %!
&$'

We have: F > Fα (k-1, nk)

=> F = 9.95878699 > F0.1 (4.90) = 2.08390307
=> Reject H0 :R2 = 0, accept H1: R2 > 0
So the regression model found is suitable.
4.5 Accuracy measures of the models

• Multiple regression function

Measuring forecasting error of multiple regression function Australia

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Table 4.4:

Source: group of students working on excel

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Measuring of the accuracy of the multiple regression function prediction
Table 4.5: Mean squared squared error.

Source: group of students working on excel

• Regression
Table 4.6: Minitab output for 5 predictor variables

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Comment:
- The results in the table show that the two explanatory variables IMP and
EXP have the highest correlation (0.816)
- Explain 66% of the variation in Y
- The correlations between the two lowest variables are GCF and EXP
(-0.473) and some other notable coefficients, such as: -0.473; 0,577…
- In the regression analysis between variables, we see that export and import
have VIP high (6.994 & 5.506)
ð So , this model has a multicollinearity phenomenon

According to the above data we see:

- DW = 1,63192

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- with n = 42, k = 6
- Looking up the table we have:
o dL = 0,997
o dU = 1,643
- because: dL < DW > dU => 0,997 < 1,63192 > 1,643 => Not conclusive
• Simple averages
Below is the simple averages model of the Australia

Figure 4.1: Simple average

We see that:
- MAPE = 172,024
- MAE = 1,294
- MSE = 3,831
• Moving Averages
After running 3 models of moving averages at level 3,5.7, we found that
level 3 is the model with the most optimal data results.

Figure 4.2: Moving average

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 We see that:
- MAPE = 202,891
- MAE = 1,283
- MSE = 3,280

• Simple exponential smoothing

For exponential harmonic model, we choose single exponential method. We use the
pseudo-algorithm of the machine to choose the Alpha coefficient of 0,05

Figure 4.3: Simple exponential smoothing

(Because the alpha here is qptimal)
We see that:
- MAPE = 206,421
- MAE = 1,132
- MSE = 2,321
4.6 Comparison over the accuracy of the models

Table 4.7: Comparison over the accuracy of the models

Simple
Regression Moving
Naive Model exponential
Model average model
model
Mean Absolute
0,958 1,294 1,283 1,132
Error (MAE)
Mean Squared
1,507 3,831 3,280 2,321
Error (MSE)

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 Mean Absolute
Percentage Error 140,338 172,024 202,091 206,421
(MAPE)
Root Mean
Squared Error 1,227 1,957 1,811 1,523
(RMSE)

So, after running the models, we find that the regression model with indexes from
MAE, MSE, MAPE, RMSE all achieve the most optimal indexes. For example, MAPE
of the regression function, the model's mean absolute error rate is only 140.338%, while
the remaining models are 172.024% or more. Another example is the RMSE of the
regression model on which its error is only 1,227, much smaller than that of other
models, reaching 1,523 or more.
So we can see that our regression model achieves the most optimal state compared
to the remaining models.

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 CONCLUSION
After analyzing the data and running the models, the main model is Regression
Modeland 3 other sub-models , we find that the Regression Model is the most optimal
model , with high accuracy to forecast Australia 's GDP including data indicators :

• A dependent variable (GDP - growth)

• Five explanatory variables
- Gross capital formation – GCF : Invest
- Inflation, consumer prices – IN : Inflation rate
- Exports of goods and services - EX : Export rate.
- Imports of goods and services - IM: Import rate.
- Foreign Direct Investment -FDI : Foreign investment capital.
Thereby, we find the forecast of Australia's GDP a few years later, knowing
thevariables positively or negatively affect the GDP of Australia as a whole, but weIt is
also quite strange that when FDI increases, it makes Australia's GDP decrease, this is
contrary to the law of should. So from a part we should rethink the problem of the
economy. Or this is also because part of our model lacks some economic value that
affects GDP.
Our future direction may be to add some economic values that affect Australia's
GDP such as Population , Government expenditure, etc. and a few other indicators.

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