Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez

Instituto de Ciencias Sociales y Administración

Departamento de Ciencias Administrativas

Value and Supply Chain Management

Unit 1.
Activity A4. Mental map chapter 4

Maestra:
Azucena Carmelina Alarcón Osollo

Alumna:
Valeria Yamilex Robledo Campoy

Matricula:
187897

02 de julio del 2023, Cd. Juárez, Chihuahua

 1. Short-range 2. Medium-range Economic forecasts. Planning
forecast: This forecast: A Long-range
indicators that are valuable in Good supplier Hiring, training, Capacity
forecast has a medium-range, or forecast:
helping organizations prepare relations, laying off workers shortages can
time span of up intermediate, Generally, 3 years
medium- to long-range forecasts. advantages in result in
to 1 year but is forecast generally or more in time
product undependable
Human
generally less spans from 3 span, long-range
innovation, delivery, loss of
than 3 months. It forecasts are used
Resources
months to 3 years. It cost and speed customers,
is used for is useful in sales in planning for new
to market loss of market
planning planning, production products, capital
expenditures, share
purchasing, job
Supply Chain
planning and
scheduling, facility location or Technological forecasts. Long-
Capacity
budgeting, cash
workforce levels, budgeting, and expansion, and
research and
term forecasts concerned with the Management
job assignments, analysis of various rates of technological progress.
and production operating plans. development.
levels.

The forecast is the only estimate of demand until actual

Location and demand becomes known. Good forecasts are of critical
Forecasting Time
Costs
importance in three areas of a business:
Demand forecasts. Projections of a
Horizons company’s sales for each time
period in the planning horizon.
The Strategic Importance
of Forecasting
The art and science of predicting
future events

What is Forecasting?

Forecasting
 Chapter 4.

Seven Steps in the

Forecasting System
Time-Series Forecasting
Forecasting Approaches
Forecasting follows seven basic steps:

Seasonal Random
1) Determine the use of Quantitative forecasts Qualitative forecasts
the forecast Is a data pattern Are “blips” in
2) Select the items to be that repeats itself the data
Forecasts that employ Forecasts that incorporate such caused by
Trend Cyclical
forecasted after a period of
mathematical modeling to factors as the decision maker’s chance and
3) Determine the time days, weeks,
forecast demand. intuition, emotions, personal unusual
horizon of the forecast months, or
4) Select the forecasting experiences, and value quarters Is the gradual Are patterns in the situations.
model(s) system.. upward or data that occur They follow no
5) Gather the data Naïve downward every several discernible
Trend
needed to make the approach movement of the years.. Predicting pattern, so
projection Consumer
forecast data over time. business cycles is they cannot be
surveys Changes in income, difficult because predicted
6) Make the forecast Executive
7) Validate and opinion population, age they may be
Exponential Moving distribution, or
implement results affected by political
smoothing averages Sales force cultural views may events or by
Delphi method estimates account for international
movement in trend. turmoil.