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Overcoming Productivity Challenges in Small Countries Lessons From Jamaica Andre Haughton Full Chapter
Overcoming Productivity Challenges in Small Countries Lessons From Jamaica Andre Haughton Full Chapter
Overcoming
Productivity
Challenges
in Small Countries
Lessons from Jamaica
Overcoming Productivity Challenges in Small
Countries
Andre Haughton · Wendel Ivey
Overcoming
Productivity
Challenges in Small
Countries
Lessons from Jamaica
Andre Haughton Wendel Ivey
Department of Economics Bank of Jamaica
University of the West Indies Kingston, Jamaica
Kingston, Jamaica
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
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Dedicated to the generation of Jamaicans who will transform our hopes,
visions and dreams to reality.
Foreword
vii
viii FOREWORD
Kemar Whyte
Principal Economist
The National Institute
of Economic and Social Research
London, UK
Preface
ix
x PREFACE
riddled by crime, violence and corruption. The vast majority are unskilled
and tertiary-level education matriculation is low. Is it by design or social
construct? Is it the mentality of the people, a lack of leadership, or is it
sabotage? Or maybe a combination of all? Most developed countries are
either from North America, Europe or Asia. While the Caribbean, Latin
American and African countries are the least efficient, the least productive,
and therefore find it hard to develop.
Historically, many of these countries have been victims of invasion,
exploitation, slavery and genocide. Unfulfilled citizens are suppressed
by political adversaries and economic ignorance. Jamaica is one such
example. A former British colony that thrived on the backs of slaves that
provided cheap labour to plantation owners who earn huge profits. After
receiving independence in 1962, Jamaica has not overcome the trauma
associated with slavery and its once productive slaves are now underuti-
lized as free men. The Small Island Developing State (SID) located in
the middle of the Caribbean basin with a population of about 2.9 million
people, of which, roughly1.3 million are currently employed to various
industries. Their efforts have to earn enough to take care of themselves
and the other 1.6 million people who are not working formally. They
complain about low wages and the cost of living. Jamaica, however, has
a huge diaspora in other countries who send home high levels of remit-
tances. The country generates most of its revenues from bauxite, tourism
and remittance inflows, while spends most of its disposable income on
mainly foreign goods. Outside of agriculture and light manufacturing,
much of what Jamaicans consume (durables, nondurables and manufac-
turing final goods and inputs) are produced overseas. The increase in
foreign demand promulgates a constantly depreciating currency which
increases foreigners spending power in Jamaica but depletes Jamaicans
spending power on foreign goods. A situation that should improve the
terms of trade and has huge implications for the island’s balance of
payments. Imports are consistently three times the value of exports.
Jamaica however has Net International Reserves (NIR) of over $3.5
billion USD enough to service its demand for foreign currency.
The United Nations have outlined the vision 2030 goals. A sustain-
ability roadmap that most countries use as their benchmark target. Many
countries have adopted these and must figure out how to achieve them
along with their own. The objective is to make Jamaica the place to work,
live and raise families by 2030. It appears rather impossible for Jamaica to
achieve objectives in 10 years that it could not have achieved in 70 years.
PREFACE xi
The vision is closer to a dream than the reality. Jamaica, like other devel-
oping countries, struggles with innate handicaps that prevent them from
achieving developmental objectives in a global environment characterized
by climate change, increase polarization societies, increasing dependence
on the internet and an ageing population. Jamaica’s economy can serve
as an example to other countries who are in similar positions.
This book explores Jamaica productivity challenges in its quest to
become a developed nation by 2030. Chapter 1 puts things into perspec-
tive as to why it is important to understand and overcome productivity
challenges in Jamaica and other small countries. It looks at the effect of
and response to the COVID-19 pandemic and explores the new normal
that has been propelled more rapidly by the advent of the virus. Chapter 2
explores the drivers of labour and total factor productivity using annual
data in a Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical
Regression analysis. Here, corruption and human capital plays a significant
role. Chapter 3 explores the use of labour in the goods producing indus-
tries and discuss their challenges, progression and future, while Chapter 4
explores the same for the service industries. Most of these industries
appear to employ more people than what is required to fetch maximum
productivity from the staff. Chapter 5 explores human capital, real wage
and productivity and also the relationship between Compensation and
Productivity in Jamaica. Productivity and compensation are found to be
highly related, even more than in the United States. Chapter 6 conducts
a survey to explore the implication of migration and human capital flight.
Jamaicans migrate for better opportunities and to escape crime. Chapter 7
explores remittances and GDP growth that the country has been receiving
from the people who migrate. Chapter 8 looks at corruption, causes and
solutions. Chapter 9 does a comparative analysis between Jamaica and
Mauritius; two similar countries but different approaches and different
economic outcomes. Chapter 10 provides some alternative perspectives
that are worth considering and charts a path forward.
We would like to thank our reviewers for taking time and extending
the effort to review the manuscript. Their useful comments and sugges-
tions are invaluable. We are particularly grateful to our research assistant
Mr. Rameze Thorpe for his contribution to the book. We would like
to thank our colleagues Ms. Sadé Morrison, Mr. Jonathan Isaacs, Mr.
Simon Johnson and Mr. Julian Morrison for their helpful contribution
to the discourse. We thank our families for their patience and support
throughout this time of immense concentration and studying to prop-
erly execute this project. We also appreciate Princesses Aura, Aria and
Ayla Haughton for their care and consideration. We would like to thank
the Jamaica people for this useful experience to realize that productivity
advancement strategies are idiosyncratic. The one-size-fits-all approach
can be unfulfilling and therefore more energy has to be directed towards
tailor fitting policies to suit individual country’s needs.
xiii
Contents
xv
xvi CONTENTS
Index 279
About the Authors
xxi
xxii ABOUT THE AUTHORS
xxiii
xxiv ACRONYMS
xxvii
xxviii LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 1.12 Pre, during and post GFC and COVID-19 crises change
in export (top left). import (top right), Jamaica stock
exchange main index (lower left) and nominal exchange
rate (lower right) (Source World Bank) 15
Fig. 1.13 Jamaica inflation rate (Source Statistical Institute
of Jamaica) 17
Fig. 2.1 Labor and total factor productivity in Jamaica 24
Fig. 2.2 The United States and Jamaica TFP (1996–2019) 25
Fig. 2.3 Inflation 30
Fig. 2.4 Government consumption 30
Fig. 2.5 Share of agriculture % GDP 31
Fig. 2.6 Jamaica’s human capital 32
Fig. 2.7 Corruption control 32
Fig. 2.8 Government of Jamaica efficiency 33
Fig. 2.9 Capital stock 34
Fig. 2.10 Credit to the private sector by banks 34
Fig. 2.11 Trade openness 35
Fig. 2.12 FDI as a percentage of GDP 36
Fig. 3.1 Labour productivity, real wage and employment growth
(Source STATIN) 49
Fig. 3.2 Labour productivity and employed labour force (Source
STATIN) 49
Fig. 3.3 Output per worker by industry 2018 (Source STATIN) 51
Fig. 3.4 Productivity growth in the goods sector (Source STATIN) 51
Fig. 3.5 Jamaica Sugarcane output 55
Fig. 3.6 Jamaica Banana output 56
Fig. 3.7 Agriculture GDP (2000–2018) 56
Fig. 3.8 Agriculture productivity and employed labour force
(Source STATIN) 58
Fig. 3.9 Agriculture productivity growth and employed labour
force (Source STATIN) 59
Fig. 3.10 Agriculture productivity and employment growth rates
(Source STATIN) 60
Fig. 3.11 Agriculture productivity and employment scatter (Source
STATIN) 60
Fig. 3.12 Agriculture GDP and employment (Source STATIN) 61
Fig. 3.13 Agricultural produce (2010–2019) (Source RADA) 61
Fig. 3.14 Manufacturing GDP 70
Fig. 3.15 Manufacturing employed labour force and productivity
(Source STATIN) 71
Fig. 3.16 Manufacturing productivity and employed labour force
growth (Source STATIN) 72
LIST OF FIGURES xxix
Fig. 5.4 People outside the labour force (Source STATIN) 148
Fig. 5.5 Salary bands in Jamaica (Source Tax office authority
of Jamaica) 151
Fig. 5.6 Compensation, Real Wage and LP (1993–2019) (Source
STATIN) 156
Fig. 5.7 Real compensation, Real Wage and Productivity (Growth)
in Jamaica (Source STATIN) 157
Fig. 6.1 Where respondents are currently living 166
Fig. 6.2 Occupation type whilst abroad 167
Fig. 6.3 Push factors 168
Fig. 6.4 Jamaica’s Emigration to Canada, UK and US (Source
Planning Institute of Jamaica) 169
Fig. 7.1 Global remittances received (Source World Bank) 184
Fig. 7.2 Remittance received by regions (Source World Bank) 186
Fig. 7.3 Remittance received in the Caribbean (Source World Bank) 189
Fig. 7.4 Remittances received (%GDP) (Source World Bank) 191
Fig. 7.5 Total remittances inflows (Source Bank of Jamaica) 191
Fig. 7.6 Stability and normality test 205
Fig. 8.1 Rule of law (1996–2019) (Source World Bank) 221
Fig. 8.2 Economic flow chart of the formal and informal sector
(Source ILO) 222
Fig. 8.3 Employed labour force by types of employment (Source
STATIN) 223
Fig. 8.4 Formal vs informal employment by industry (Source
STATIN) 224
Fig. 9.1 GDP growth in Mauritius and Jamaica (1977–2019)
(Source World Bank) 232
Fig. 9.2 GDP per capita in Mauritius and Jamaica (1977–2019)
(Source World Bank) 233
Fig. 9.3 Control of corruption (1996–2019) (Source World Bank) 234
Fig. 9.4 Political stability and absence of violence/terrorism
(1996–2019) (Source World Bank) 235
Fig. 9.5 Regulatory quality (1996–2019) (Source World Bank) 235
Fig. 9.6 Government effectiveness (1996–2019) (Source World
Bank) 236
Fig. 9.7 Rule of law (1996–2019) (Source World Bank) 239
Fig. 9.8 Political stability (1996–2019) 242
Fig. 9.9 Total factor productivity (1957–2019) (Source St Loius
Fed) 245
Fig. 9.10 Gross savings (1976–2019) (Source World Bank) 246
Fig. 10.1 High income status scenarios (Source World Bank) 260
Fig. 10.2 Average GDP in LAC by official language (2010–2020) 270
LIST OF FIGURES xxxiii
xxxv
xxxvi LIST OF TABLES
Table 4.8 Labour usage monitor: real estate and other business
services 128
Table 4.9 Labour usuage monitor: producers of government
services 132
Table 4.10 Labour usage monitor by industry 133
Table 4.11 Productivity analysis by industry 134
Table 4.12 GDP output by industry 135
Table 5.1 Real wage and productivity 151
Table 5.2 Compensation and productivity regression output 156
Table 5.3 Real Compensation, Real Wage and Productivity
Growth Rates in Jamaica (1993–2019) 157
Table 6.1 Monthly income 167
Table 6.2 Total brain drain: most affected countries in the world 171
Table 6.3 Women’s brain drain: most affected countries
in the world (2000) 172
Table 6.4 Emigration rates by educational attainment and country
of birth 2000 172
Table 6.5 Occupations of people in the Jamaican Diaspora 176
Table 7.1 Summary statistics 198
Table 7.2 Stationarity test 201
Table 7.3 Optimal lag selection 202
Table 7.4 Bound test results 203
Table 7.5 ARDL Long-run estimated coefficient: dependent
variable D(GDPG) 203
Table 7.6 Short-run estimates using ARDL approach: dependent
variable D(GDPG) 204
Table 7.7 Diagnostic test 205
CHAPTER 1
Jamaica, like many other Small Island Developing States (SIDS), wants
to accomplish its United Nation’s Vision 2030 Sustainable Develop-
ment Goals (SDGs) to become the country of choice to live and raise
families. This is possible if the country can increase its Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) through increased productivity as reasoned by Daude
and Fernández-Arias (2010). Increasing GDP and productivity has been
a challenge for the island in a global environment where productivity
growth has been slowing down, see Fig. 1.1. Van Ark (2016) posits
that productivity growth has been declining globally since the mid-2000s.
The UN (2017) report on productivity also suggested similar evidence.
The United Nations outlined that many SIDS might not be able to
achieve their SDGs by 2030 due to sluggish economic performances.
Like other SIDS, Jamaica is import-dependent, small, price-taking, and
susceptibility to external shocks such as global geopolitical occurrences,
natural disasters and climate change. These have impacted the GDP
output and developmental process of the economy negatively over the
years. Domestic hindrances such as high levels of crime, corruption and
institutional weaknesses have also prevented the nation from building
its resilience and overcoming developmental challenges. Therefore, for
Jamaica and other SIDS to transition to high-income economies, a
conscious decision must be made to prioritize factors that can enhance
productivity, which is the foundation of economic growth and progres-
sion. Productivity growth is also an important factor in business cycle
fluctuations, monetary policy prescriptions, inflation, exchange rate and
1 COVID-19 AND EFFICIENCY IN A NEW GLOBAL ECONOMY 3
2
%
0
1951
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
1953
-1
-2
-3
Year
World Average Growth Period Average Growth
economic growth spurt more than 50 years ago when labour produc-
tivity trended upwards to more than $34,000 US per person in 1973, see
Fig. 1.2. GDP per capita grew by as much as 11% in 1970 and peaked at
$5,600 USD in 1972, see Fig. 1.3 after which they trended downwards,
and the island has not materialized that level of growth and productivity
since then.
Comparatively, over the same 70 years, labour productivity in the
Asian-5 countries have grown at a more rapid pace than any other region.
The Asian-5 countries have grown by more than 1000% compared to
271% growth on average in the Caribbean top 5 nations, 5 times more,
see Table 1.2. Among the emerging Asian countries, Taiwan and Thai-
land have seen the most productivity growth but Singapore and Taiwan
have the highest labour output valued at $155,000 and $111,000 per
annum respectively, see Table 1.2. In 2019, Taiwan’s labour productivity
was valued five times that of Jamaica’s and Singapore’s that was on par
with Jamaica in the 1950s is now valued 7 times the labour productivity of
Jamaica, see Table 1.2. Indonesia has one of the lowest labour outputs per
person among the Asian top 5, valued at $29,000, growing by more than
480% since 1950, and is 1.5 times the labour productivity of Jamaica, see
Table 1.2. Such a huge disparity in productivity growth in Jamaica relative
Fig. 1.2 Jamaica’s output per employed person (1950–2021) (Source Confer-
ence Board)
1 COVID-19 AND EFFICIENCY IN A NEW GLOBAL ECONOMY 5
Table 1.2 Labour productivity growth/output per worker in Asia and the
Caribbean (1950–2019)
Source Conference Board; *illustrate the country with the lowest level of productivity growth
Fig. 1.3 Jamaica’s GDP per capita (1966–2020) (Source World Bank)
6 A. HAUGHTON AND W. IVEY
to the other countries in the Caribbean and Asia is a cause for concern
and must be addressed, making Jamaica a useful case study to analyse the
causes of and solutions to the nation’s poor productivity growth. Why is it
that these other countries with similar economic history and innate char-
acteristics as Jamaica have experienced higher productivity growth and
economic development than Jamaica has?
Timmer and Los (2005) along with Hsieh (1999) suggests that much
of the rapid growth and industrialization of East Asian countries in the
second half of the twentieth century occurred through advancements in
technology and innovations. Gomez-Salvador et al. (2006) also found
similar evidence to suggest that government policy directed towards
improving factors like technology can enhance productivity in the Euro
area. Crespi and Pianta (2008), Geroski (1989) and Uppenberg and
Strauss (2010) concur. Many SIDS including Jamaica have found it chal-
lenging to properly incorporate technology and innovation into their
productive processes and as a result, have not yielded increased produc-
tivity and high output growth. In Jamaica for example, the economic
environment has not been enabling to technologically driven infrastruc-
ture and as a result, it has been slow to be absorbed. For instance, at least
1 COVID-19 AND EFFICIENCY IN A NEW GLOBAL ECONOMY 7
15% tariff plus other import duty are levied on computers and similar
technological devices and equipment. These tariffs artificially inflate the
cost of these items and reduce the technology absorption rate of the
country. Much of Jamaica’s industrial policy subsidies have been directed
towards industries like tourism and agriculture in a non-innovative or
non-technologically advancing manner. Both industries are highly volatile,
low growth, low value-added and low productivity industries. There is no
real innovation occurring in these industries and no other fast-growing
industries to facilitate the rapid growth of GDP. This has been so for
many other SIDS as well. If Jamaica and other SIDs want to achieve
rapid growth like the Asian-5, they must innovate and make it cheaper to
incorporate technology in industries with the potential for high growth.
Using industrial policy to drive innovation and incorporate technology
in the economic productive process has been challenging for many SIDs
including Jamaica, who either lack the know-how or the will to do so.
Successive governments pitch their policy prescriptions in their annual
budget presentations.3 These proposals have had varying effects on
different industries but most, if not all, have been unfulfilling. The usual
excuse appears to be that politics rather than economics predominantly
determine the industries targeted and the policy orientation in these small
countries. Politics however exist in every country, but there appears to
be a culture in Europe, North America and Asia that has allowed their
political decisions to coincide to a large extent with their economic aspira-
tions which have borne fruit. One plausible argument is that more checks
and balances are present to increase the accuracy of government decisions
and to reduce the squandering of public resources. Despite incidences of
corruption, these countries have used Industrial Policy productively to
innovate and industrialize.
One other compelling argument is also the role of politics in policy
continuation. Different political parties with different ideologies have
different approaches to economic management and policy orientation.
Many times, developmental objectives initiated by one party are side-
lined by the other party when they demit office. In these instances, a
change of government can change the policy orientation of the country
entirely. In more advanced countries such as the United States and the
United Kingdom or Canada, a blueprint is laid out in stone to guide
3 These can be found in the budget presentations of the Minister of Finance over the
years and can be found on the Ministry of Finance website at https://mof.gov.jm/.
8 A. HAUGHTON AND W. IVEY
Fig. 1.5 JSE main market index (Source Jamaica Stock Exchange)
Fig. 1.6 Jamaica’s GNI per capita (1968–2020) (Source World Bank)
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
Fig. 1.7 Jamaica GNI per capita growth (1969–2020) (Source World Bank)
12 A. HAUGHTON AND W. IVEY
as first responses, forcing people to stay home and isolate themselves. The
initial effect on movement, travel and tourism spilt over to other indus-
tries. More than 200 large companies and thousands of small businesses
had either shut down or filed for bankruptcy in the first 6 months of the
pandemic. It had an immediate negative impact on production, global
logistics, commerce, finance and distribution channels.
The negative economic impact of COVID-19 was worse than the
Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/2009. The Jamaican economy
declined by 10% or $200 billion JMD in 2020, more than 4 times as
much as it was in the 2008/2009 GFC, see Fig. 1.10. In 2019, Jamaica
had one of the lowest per capita incomes in the Caribbean region, see
Fig. 1.10. GDP per capita in 2020 also fell to 1990s level and Employ-
ment fell by more than 4% compared to 1% during the Global Financial
Crisis.5 The Caribbean Gross Domestic Product on average declined by
4.2%, Central America declined by 7.1%, South America declined by 6.6%
and North America also declined by 4% in 2020. All performing worse
than they did back in the Global Financial Crisis. In Jamaica, for the year
2020, labour productivity fell by more than 5% compared to falling by just
1% in the Global Financial Crisis, see Fig. 1.11. By March 2020, most
Fig. 1.9 Pre, during and post GFC and COVID-19 crises change in labour
productivity (top left). GDP (top right), employment (lower left) and inflation
(lower right) (Source World Bank)
of the major stock exchanges around the world entered bearish trends.
Locally, the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), which was named the best
performing in the world in 2017, declined by more than 17% due to
COVID-19, compared to 6% in the 2008/2009 GFC, see Fig. 1.12. The
government responded by spending beyond what was fiscally prudent.
Delaying Jamaica’s debt objective by reversing the trajectory of its debt to
GDP ratio; increasing from 96% of GDP in 2019 to 110% in 2021. Many
other countries witnessed similar circumstances and needed assistance to
rejuvenate. More than 80 countries sought emergency financial support
from the IMF and more loomed as the virus spread and employees stayed
away from physical work to contain the pandemic. Global production and
productivity needed ransom.
14 A. HAUGHTON AND W. IVEY
Fig. 1.10 GDP per capita in the Caribbean (2019) (Source World Bank)
Fig. 1.12 Pre, during and post GFC and COVID-19 crises change in export
(top left). import (top right), Jamaica stock exchange main index (lower left) and
nominal exchange rate (lower right) (Source World Bank)
»Mitä?»
»En ymmärrä.»
»Tietenkin olin siellä», hän virkkoi. »En ole koskaan nähnyt mitään
sen kaltaisia. Olen nähnyt kaikenlaisia urheilukilpailuja,
sirkustemppuja ja ratsastusta ja olen lukenut sellaisesta paljonkin,
mutta» — ja hänen äänensä kävi miettiväksi, »mutta että miehet
tosiaan tekevät jotakin sellaista — aivan noin päivätyökseen! En olisi
koskaan voinut uneksiakaan, että sellaisia miehiä todellakin on
olemassa.»
Suurella laitumella.
Kilty oli juhlilla ollut erittäin ystävällinen Philiä kohtaan. Kitty olikin
aina ystävällinen — melkein aina. Mutta hänen ystävällisyydestään
huolimatta oli Phil ollut huomaavinaan, ettei hänen
ratsastuskilpailussa saavuttamansa palkinto ollut tehnyt tyttöön
suurtakaan vaikutusta. Phil ei itsekään pannut palkinnolle suuria
arvoa, mutta hän oli päättänyt voittaa mestaruuden sen huomattavan
rahasumman takia, joka seurasi palkintoa. Tämä rahasumma oli
varsin olennaisena osana unelmassa, joka jo kauan oli väikkynyt
Philin mielessä ja joka kuului niihin asioihin, joista hän ei kenellekään
puhunut. Niinpä hän olikin itse asiassa ratsastanut ei palkinnon,
vaan unelmiensa takia, ja siksi oli Kittyn mielipiteellä hänen
silmissään suuri merkitys.
Kuin jokin vaistomainen aavistus olisi ohjannut hänen liikkeitään
käänsi Phil Acton katseensa Kittyn kodista kaukaista Metsärajaa
kohden, missä edellisenä päivänä oli tavannut muukalaisen. Koko
matkan ratsastaessaan kotiin hän oli ajatellut miestä ja koettanut
selittää itselleen hänen läsnäoloaan maassa, joka näytti niin suuresti
poikkeavan siitä ympäristöstä, johon hän oli tottunut. Yhdestä
seikasta Phil oli varma: miestä painoi suuri ja raskas huoli. Mitä
enemmän hän ajatteli asiaa, sitä varmemmin hän tunsi häirinneensä
muukalaista hetkellä, jonka tämä oli omistanut yksinäisyydessä
ratkaistaville mietteille ja taisteluille. Tämä tunne oli pidättänyt Philiä
kertomasta kohtauksesta ainoallekaan ihmiselle — vieläpä
Rovastillekin ja »Äidille», kuten Phil sanoi rouva Baldwinia. Kenties
tämä tunne oli myöskin pohjaltaan syynä siihen myötätuntoon, jota
Phil ensi hetkestä alkaen oli tuntenut muukalaista kohtaan, sillä
Philillä oli itselläänkin hetkiä, jolloin hän ei halunnut kenenkään
lukevan ajatuksiaan.
Aitauksessa.
»Lorua!» huusi pikku Billy kiihdyksissään. »Ei ole sitä hevosta, jota
Phil ei saisi tottelemaan. Vai mitä, Phil?»
Paimenet nyökkäsivät.