TIME APD(cfs)

1980 1780
1981 2950
1982 6600
1983 3110
1984 3210
1985 4120
1986 6770
1987 8120
1988 2310
1989 2000
1990 1300
1991 2920
1992 2970
1993 925
1994 1330
1995 2240
1996 2500
1997 1620
1998 1780
1999 5100

LOG NORMAL DISTRIBUTION METHOD

RANK OBSERVED RETURN PERIOD p 0<p<=0.5

1 8120 35.9286 0.0278 YES
2 6770 12.8974 0.0775 YES
3 6600 7.8594 0.1272 YES
4 5100 5.6517 0.1769 YES
5 4120 4.4123 0.2266 YES
6 3210 3.6187 0.2763 YES
7 3110 3.0671 0.3260 YES
8 2970 2.6614 0.3757 YES
9 2950 2.3505 0.4254 YES
10 2920 2.1046 0.4751 YES
11 2500 1.9053 0.5249 NO
12 2310 1.7405 0.5746 NO
13 2240 1.6019 0.6243 NO
14 2000 1.4838 0.6740 NO
15 1780 1.3819 0.7237 NO
16 1780 1.2931 0.7734 NO
17 1620 1.2150 0.8231 NO
18 1330 1.1458 0.8728 NO
19 1300 1.0841 0.9225 NO
 20 925 1.0286 0.9722 NO
Total 63655

MEAN 3182.7500 MEAN

Std Dev 1994.9828 Std Dev
Skew 1.3029 Skew
CV 0.6268 CV

RETURN PERIOD (T) P 0<p<=0.5

1000 0.001 YES
500 0.002 YES
200 0.005 YES
100 0.01 YES
50 0.02 YES
25 0.04 YES
10 0.1 YES
5 0.2 YES
2 0.5 YES

σ= 0.253209876989909
x̄ = 3.43082522557552
CS = 0.266199289036572
CV = 0.073804364938885
 n= 20

New p p>0.5 Log x w z (KT) y Expected chi values

0.0278 3.9096 2.6764 1.9141 3.9155 8231.6256 1.5137
0.0775 3.8306 2.2614 1.4221 3.7909 6178.9922 56.5287
0.1272 3.8195 2.0306 1.1396 3.7194 5240.7175 352.5565
0.1769 3.7076 1.8612 0.9270 3.6656 4629.6880 47.7772
0.2266 3.6149 1.7230 0.7497 3.6207 4175.0419 0.7256
0.2763 3.5065 1.6038 0.5934 3.5811 3811.3273 94.8737
0.3260 3.4928 1.4971 0.4504 3.5449 3506.5469 44.8445
0.3757 3.4728 1.3992 0.3162 3.5109 3242.6420 22.9238
0.4254 3.4698 1.3074 0.1876 3.4783 3008.3711 1.1326
0.4751 3.4654 1.2199 0.0622 3.4466 2796.1958 5.4815
0.4751 0.4751 3.3979 1.2199 -0.0622 3.4151 2600.6557 3.8958
0.4254 0.4254 3.3636 1.3074 -0.1876 3.3833 2417.2359 4.7573
0.3757 0.3757 3.3502 1.3992 -0.3162 3.3508 2242.5981 0.0030
0.3260 0.3260 3.3010 1.4971 -0.4504 3.3168 2073.8187 2.6276
0.2763 0.2763 3.2504 1.6038 -0.5934 3.2806 1907.9817 8.5846
0.2266 0.2266 3.2504 1.7230 -0.7497 3.2410 1741.7652 0.8393
0.1769 0.1769 3.2095 1.8612 -0.9270 3.1961 1570.7198 1.5461
0.1272 0.1272 3.1239 2.0306 -1.1396 3.1423 1387.5853 2.3898
0.0775 0.0775 3.1139 2.2614 -1.4221 3.0707 1176.8817 12.8799
 0.0278 0.0278 2.9661 2.6764 -1.9141 2.9462 883.4152 1.9575
Total 68.6165 Total 62823.8058 667.8388

3.4308 DIFFERENCE
0.2532 831.1942
0.2662
0.0738

w z(KT) k KT Log(x) Expected

1.17741 0.0000 0.2171 0.0000 3.4308 2696.6538
1.794123 0.8415 0.2171 0.8414567 3.6439 4404.4367
2.145966 1.2817 0.2171 1.2817288 3.7554 5693.3988
2.537272 1.7511 0.2171 1.7510765 3.8742 7485.4015
2.79715 2.0542 0.2171 2.0541886 3.9510 8932.3569
3.034854 2.3268 0.2171 2.3267853 4.0200 10471.0505
3.255247 2.5762 0.2171 2.5762361 4.0832 12110.2650
3.525509 2.8785 0.2171 2.8785061 4.1597 14444.1305
3.716922 3.0905 0.2171 3.0905222 4.2134 16344.6633
 GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION METHOD

RANK OBSERVED RETURN PERIOD p KT

1 8120 35.9286 0.0278 2.3315
2 6770 12.8974 0.0775 1.5124
3 6600 7.8594 0.1272 1.1050
4 5100 5.6517 0.1769 0.8257
5 4120 4.4123 0.2266 0.6093
6 3210 3.6187 0.2763 0.4300
7 3110 3.0671 0.3260 0.2750
8 2970 2.6614 0.3757 0.1367
9 2950 2.3505 0.4254 0.0102
10 2920 2.1046 0.4751 -0.1077
11 2500 1.9053 0.5249 -0.2196
12 2310 1.7405 0.5746 -0.3275
13 2240 1.6019 0.6243 -0.4334
14 2000 1.4838 0.6740 -0.5389
15 1780 1.3819 0.7237 -0.6462
16 1780 1.2931 0.7734 -0.7580
17 1620 1.2150 0.8231 -0.8783
18 1330 1.1458 0.8728 -1.0142
19 1300 1.0841 0.9225 -1.1821
 20 925 1.0286 0.9722 -1.4448
Total 63655 Total

MEAN 3182.7500 DIFFERENCE

Std Dev 1994.9828 628.1927
Skew 1.3029
CV 0.6268
 n= 20

Expected chi values

7834.0327 10.4387
6199.9912 52.4049
5387.2305 273.0178
4829.9602 15.0977
4398.2611 17.6045
4040.6808 170.7709
3731.3806 103.4775
3455.3927 68.1850
3203.1199 20.0023
2967.8782 0.7724
2744.6393 21.8056
2529.3002 19.0142
2318.1881 2.6371
2107.6404 5.4974
1893.5247 6.8063
1670.5028 7.1773
1430.5774 25.0814
1159.4815 25.0772
824.5684 274.1255
 300.4565 1298.2062
63026.8073 2417.1999