Conor Cook

The Value of Batting Average

Batting average for decades was one of the most valuable statistics when measuring the

offensive success of a player or a team in baseball. Then suddenly, around the time of

“Moneyball” in the early 2000’s it seemingly became unimportant.

As Chris Sale left Manny Machado on one knee after striking him out to win game five of

the 2018 World Series, it completed a historic season for the Boston Red Sox. A team that

dominated both the regular and postseasons, winning 108 games before winning another 11 in

the playoffs with only three losses. However, it was no coincidence, and it was not luck for why

they were so successful. The 2018 Red Sox led all of the Major Leagues in runs scored, batting

average and on-base percentage, and it was not that close. So how much did Boston’s high

batting average help the success of their team?

In recent years, the perspective of many fans and MLB front offices is that batting

average is much less important than on-base percentage. Causing a lot of debate as to how

batting average should be valued.

Typically, teams that score the most runs throughout the season will have higher team

batting averages compared to the bottom tier teams. Runs scored is usually a great way to

grasp the overall success of an offense throughout a 162-game season.

In 2023, the average batting average for the top five teams in runs scored was .263 and

for the bottom five teams it was .241. Showing that a good batting average is important to

some degree. However, batting average does not tell the whole story and that is where the

endless debate begins. There are numerous of other statistics that are important towards the
contribution of a good offense. Some teams highly value on-base and slugging percentages as it

can be an effective way to produce runs.

The New York Yankees in 2022 were tied for 15th in batting average, hitting .241 as a

team, but scored the second most runs in Major League baseball. The Yankees are an

organization that usually does not value batting average as much as other organizations. Having

a team batting average above .250 only once since 2018, but generally scoring a lot of runs

during the regular season. That is expected when the team is comprised of a bunch of sluggers

like Aaron Judge, who holds the American League single-season record for home runs and

Giancarlo Stanton, who has over 400 career homeruns. However, the Yankees have not

experienced a lot of Postseason success during that time compared to other teams like the Red

Sox and the Houston Astros, teams that have valued batting average more.

There is no clear answer to how much MLB teams should value batting average, as there

are many examples of teams having successful offenses with or without high batting average

numbers. There are also many examples of teams having unsuccessful offenses with and

without good batting averages. In 2023, the Miami Marlins had the fourth best batting average

in the MLB, but they scored the fifth least amount of runs. However, the Atlanta Braves had the

highest batting average and scored the most runs in baseball by a good margin. This proves that

there are various ways to produce runs in baseball.

“The value of a walk is roughly 0.7 runs, it varies per year, and the value of a single is

roughly 0.88 runs,” says Eli Ben-Porat, an employee for Fangraphs, a company that generates

advanced baseball analytics and stats. “Meaning if a batter could trade 100 walks for 100 hits,

theoretically, then you are talking about 16 more runs, which is about one and half wins.”
Batting average has received a false narrative that is not important because of the other

valuable statistics, like on-base percentage and slugging percentage. When in reality those

statistics are driven by batting average. “Slugging percentage is mostly determined by your

batting average, if your batting average is .050, the best you can slug is .200,” says Ben-Porat.

Batting average is needed to produce higher slugging and on-base percentages because it is a

variable to complete those statistics.

On-base percentage is a more predictable stat because it includes two variables, batting

average and walk percentage. Whereas batting average is only one variable, the percentage of

getting a hit in a number of at-bats. Although, teams that have batting average make up a larger

portion of the total on-base percentage will typically score more runs because a hit is worth

more than a walk. In 2023, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cincinnati Reds both had a .327 on-

base percentage, but the Phillies collected a .256 batting average compared to the Reds at .249.

The Phillies ultimately scored 13 more runs on the season than the Reds. That could have been

the difference the Reds needed to make the playoffs, as they missed the playoffs by a mere two

games. Pitching is a huge factor towards winning games but scoring a few extra runs could have

made a difference on the outcome of Cincinnati’s season.

Typically, that is how it will work out, in 2021 the Boston Red Sox had a .328 on-base

percentage, and the San Francisco Giants had a .329 on-base percentage. The Red Sox had a

batting average of .261 compared to the Giants .249, helping lead the Red Sox to score 25 more

runs on the season. Although this is not always the case, there are examples every year of

teams that have lower batting averages and lower on-base percentages compared to others,

but still manage to score more runs. The 2019 Oakland Athletics put together a .249 average
and a .327 on-base percentage, which ranked sixteenth and eleventh in the MLB respectively,

but they scored the eighth most runs in the league.

It shows that there are so many variables and statistics that equate to runs being scored

or effective offenses. One or two statistics does not tell the whole story. It can provide some

context and some clarity for how good an offense is, but it will never paint the full picture. In

most cases, an MLB team does need to have a solid batting average to be successful over the

course of 162 games. The way that baseball is being played today, the value of batting average

is that it is helpful, but it is not necessary to be successful.