Professional Documents
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Commodities and Investors
Commodities and Investors
COMMODITIES MARKET
Opportunities for Aspiring Investors
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Introduction
The world of investment offers many options, including equities,
bonds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
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Global Economy and
2024
Commodities Market
Global Economic
Outlook
Last Recent
The global economy is still resilient, with steady growth, Indicators % Change
Country/Region Period
2023 Period
2024 2025
despite recent events
World 3.2 3.2 3.2
Including non-renewal of the Black Sea Initiative and
the Israel-Gaza war, with attacks on vessels in the Red Advanced Eco. 1.6 1.7 1.8
Sea and Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel Euro Area 0.4 0.8 1.5
The world has avoided a recession, and major emerging EMs & Developing 4.3 4.2 4.2
market economies did not suffer abrupt downturns. Sub-Saharan Africa 3.4 3.8 4.0
Global growth, estimated at 3.2% in 2023, is projected to United States 2.5 2.7 1.9
continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025 United Kingdom 0.1 0.5 1.5
The forecast for 2024 is revised up by 0.1% from China 5.2 4.6 4.1
January 2024 WEO update.
South Africa 0.6 0.9 1.2
Nigeria’s economic growth is projected to be 3.3% in 2024, Nigeria 2.9 3.3 3.0
Global Outlook (IMF, WE3)
an upward revision of 0.3% from January 2024 WEO
update. Source: World Outlook (IMF, WEO APRIL 2024)
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Global Commodities The latest conflict in the Middle East has raised
geopolitical risks for commodity markets as it
Markets continues to threaten disruptions to
commodities production and exports.
Indicators
According to the World Bank’s Monthly report,
Major price indexes; Index US$ (2010=100)
Brent crude oil prices reached US$87/bbl by the
end of March, an increase from $84 in February,
Driven by solid global oil demand outlook
and concerns regarding potential supply
constraints stemming from the ongoing
OPEC+ cuts
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Nigerian Economy and
Commodities Market
2024
Nigeria’s Economic Overview
The Nigerian economy is still battling the
Recent % problems of low growth, high inflation, a
Indicators Last Period
Period depreciating currency, and rapidly increasing
Change Indicators % Change
Inflation Rate (%) - March 22.04 33.20 11.16 Compared to the same period last year, many of
the key macroeconomic indicators have
Crude Oil Price (S/bn) - April 86.80 95.81 10.38 underperformed.
Official Exchange Rate (N/$) - April 459.83 1246.17 63.10 The effects of recent policy reforms are still
Parallel Exchange Rate (N/$) - April 740 1240 40.32 lingering, as businesses face high production
costs and forex shortages.
External Reserves ($’mil) - April 35,386.03 33,361.18 (5.72)
Although the naira crashed to over N1,800/$ in
Petrol Price (N/Ltr) - Feb 263.76 679.36 157.57 Feb. 2024 at the parallel market, it gained some of
Total Public Debt (N’trn) - 2023'Q4 46.25 97.34 110.47 its lost value at the beginning of Q3’2024.
Inflation rate is still very high at 33.20%
To curb inflation and attract capital inflow, MPC,
in the last two meetings, has raised MPR from
18.75% to 24.75% and CRR to 45% from 32.5%.
LDR has also been reduced from 65% to 50%
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Outlook on Nigeria’s Economy
IMF, in its April 2024 edition of the World Economic In 2024, the Federal Government of Nigeria plans to
Outlook (WEO), is projecting a growth rate of 3.3% for Indicators spend a total of N28.78 trillion, and all the States
Nigeria. combined have a budget of N16.14 trillion,
making a total of N44.9 trillion planned public
The President has announced the plan of his administration spending for 2024, about 15% of GDP.
to achieve a GDP of US$1 trillion economy before 2030.
Therefore, Nigeria needs to grow beyond these numbers to Such an amount is expected to greatly impact the
attain its new GDP target. economy, especially with the energy subsidy reforms,
which have increased fiscal space.
Growth is expected to be driven mainly by agriculture,
construction, services, and trade. However, to achieve such a huge impact, the level of
efficiency in government spending and tax administration
In March 2024, the CBN announced an upward review of the has to be improved.
minimum capital requirements for Nigeria’s commercial,
merchant, and non-interest banks, Equally, expectations are high for the commencement
of Dangote Refinery and other domestic refineries.
with a two-year compliance window from April 1, 2024,
This is expected to enhance output within Nigeria's oil
As a result, Nigeria will is expectd to have bigger and banks
and gas sector in 2024 due to the increased capacity for
to effectively perform their primary role of financial
local refining and the opportunities for growth in local
intermediation and provide the necessary finance to boost crude demand that they offer.
productive activities in the country.
Will also presents investment opportunities as banks The country can attempt higher daily output and
raise fresh capital possibly meet the budget production target of 1.78
million barrels/day.
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Nigeria’s Commodity Market
Indicators
The commodities market in Nigeria is
experiencing an increase in trade volumes,
indicating increased investor interest in
diversification.
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Nigeria’s Top Imports Value Share in Total
Products Y-O-Y (%)
₦’billion Imports (%)
Vehicles, aircraft and parts 5,710.31 1496.56 40.48
According to the latest NBS report, the top-
ranked group import was “vehicles, aircraft, Mineral products 3401.44 -78.05 24.11
and parts” with ₦5.71trn (40.48% of total Boilers, machinery and
1,559.45 64.26 11.05
imports), appliances
Products of the chemical and
This was followed by “mineral products” with 732.27 51.91 5.19
allied industries
₦3.40trn (24.11% of total imports), “boilers and
Vegetable products 522.50 83.30 3.70
machinery” with ₦1.56trn (11.05% of total
imports), “products of chemical” with Prepared foodstuffs;
505.88 107.62 3.59
₦732.27bn (5.19% of total imports) beverages, etc.
Plastic, rubber and articles 438.58 78.27 3.11
Vegetable products ranked 5th with Base metals and articles of
₦522.50bn (3.70%). 329.60 43.41 2.34
base metals
This shows opportunities in the vegetable Paper making material; paper
180.58 114.91 1.28
product space. and paperboard, articles
Live animals; animal products 176.06 45.27 1.25
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Nigeria’s Top Exports
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Top Agricultural Exports
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Top Agricultural Imports
Durum Wheat
(not in seeds)
₦303,387.94
Imports of agricultural goods in
2023’Q4 stood at ₦711.14 billion.
2024
Calender
Selected Commodities -
Maize
On a quarterly basis, global prices of maize
decreased by 7.74% in 2024’Q1.
This may be due to the ongoing harvesting under
mixed conditions in Brazil and Argentina with
favorable conditions.
According to USDA, maize prices are anticipated
to decrease by 8% and 4% in 2024 and 2025,
respectively, following a 22% decline in 2023.
However, AFEX projections for 2024 indicate that
despite the estimated 7% increase in production
volume, the price of maize will still surge by over
25% compared to 2023’s average.
This increase will be primarily driven by SourSource: World Bank Commodity Pink sheet
sustained high demand and relatively low
initial stock levels.
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Selected Commodities -
Wheat
Global wheat prices fell by 5.60% quarter-
on-year and 25.68% year-on-year.
largely driven by ample supplies and
strong competition among exporters
According to USDA, wheat production for
2023/24 is slightly higher, with increases
for Australia, Russia, and Argentina.
This is likely to reduce global wheat
prices.
Also, it predicts in its grain report that
Nigeria's wheat production will increase
by 42% between July 2023 and 2024. SourSource: World Bank Commodity Pink sheet
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Selected Commodities -
Rice
Global rice prices are 28.78% higher year-to-year, however, it
fell by 4.81% quarter-on-quarter.
due to the ongoing harvest in Vietnam and lower
international demand for rice in Thailand
In the world rice market, 2023/24 global production is
projected at 513.7 million tons.
Pakistan and the United States are projected to achieve
the largest production gains
However, the World Bank predicted that rice prices would
remain high into 2024, assuming India maintains its export
restrictions.
Despite a projected 4% increase in production, according to
the AFEX crop production survey, the price of rice in Nigeria is
expected to rise further this year due to its initial base price SourSource: World Bank Commodity Pink sheet
starting the year at over N400,000 per metric ton.
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Selected Commodities -
Soybean
In 2024, prices of soybeans globally are 10.95% lower
quarter-on-quarter.
Soybean production is expected to increase in 2024,
owing to anticipation of significant output
recovery in Argentina and continued expansion
of cultivation areas in Brazil, assuming normal
weather conditions prevail in both countries.
This is likely to reduce global soybean prices.
However, AFEX predicts that soybean prices in
Nigeria will increase significantly in 2024.
This upward trend is primarily attributed to a
confluence of factors, including severe supply chain
constraints and persistently high demand.
Source: World Bank Commodity Pink sheet
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Outlook on
Commodities Market
2024
Outlook on Global Commodity Markets
Energy Agriculture Metal
Widespread geopolitical tensions Extreme weather, especially the current El Niño phenomenon, Base metal prices are
present major risks to the energy will continue to dampen 2024’s output. forecast to fall 5% in 2024
market outlook This is especially true for food commodities grown in the due to slowing demand,
.
A deepening or extension of OPEC+ most affected areas, such as cocoa, sugar, coffee, rice, and then rebound in 2025 on
production cutbacks might tighten wheat. recovering global industrial
global oil markets, putting upward For instance, the Indian Sugar Mills Association predicts that activity.
pressure on prices. sugar output in India, the world's largest producer, would
decline by 10% in the marketing year 2023-2024, which ends Key risks to these pricing
However, sustained output forecasts include lower-
in September.
from non-OPEC nations is than-expected demand
projected to offset the Also, cocoa prices reached a record high due to El Niño-
from China and advanced
reductions from OPEC+ induced heatwaves and dryness in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana
Food commodity prices are predicted to continue a
nations or major disruptions
producers. to production.
downward trend over 2024, owing to moderate global
Thus, the Brent crude oil price demand and ample supplies of main crops, notably maize
forecast is expected to average and soybeans. The worsening of the latest
$81/bbl for 2024. Middle East crisis might
The grains price index is projected to fall by 4% on average in
potentially affect trade and,
Natural gas prices are projected to 2024 and 2025.
therefore, prices.
decline 4% in 2024 on slower
However, the cost of rice continues to be high till 2024,
demand. assuming India retains its export restrictions.
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Outlook on Commodity Markets in Nigeria
Energy Agriculture Metal
In 2024, Nigeria's oil and gas Despite a 4% increase in production, rice prices are
industry is expected to expected to rise further, according to AFEX Crop In 2023, Nigeria exported
experience a notable surge. Production Survey, mostly tin ore and
projecting a potential increase of over 65% year- concentrates worth about
driven by the
on-year., due to the impact of more stringent 137.59 billion naira ($108.34
commencement of diesel trade policies from key producing regions like million), mainly to China and
and aviation fuel production India’s bank on exports in 2023. Malaysia, according to NBS.
by Dangote Refinery
Cocoa prices will also sustain their elevated levels,
Also, one of the most likely with a projection of about an increase of 50% year- In a bid to encourage private
developments is the Nigerian on-year. sector participation in the solid
National Petroleum Corporation According to the 2024 Annual Commodity Review minerals sector, the
(NNPC)'s probable listing on the and Outlook Report by AFEX, it is expected that the government plans to hold not
NGX. upward trend in agricultural commodity prices will more than 25% plans stake in
persist throughout 2024. the proposed Nigerian Solid
Further growth in the renewable Minerals Corp, leaving the rest
energy industry is expected due For instance, the price of maize will increase by
to private investors and the
to recent provisions in the 2023 more than 25% compared to last year's average
public.
Electricity Act. Also, soybean prices are expected to rise by over
35% year on year due to decreased production and
increased international demand.
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Opportunities for
Aspiring Investors in the
Commodities Market
2024
Stakeholders in the Commodity Trading Ecosystem
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Investment Opportunities In Commodities
Agriculture Metals and Solid Energy
Minerals
Food processing •Exploration of solid mineral Surveying
Agricultural input supplies products, mining and quarrying Drilling and pipelining operations
and machinery gold, iron ore, lead, zinc, tin Crude oil transportation and storage
Commodity trading and lithium, barite, Exploration and production of oil and
transportation bitumen, coal, limestone. gas products
Production of improved seeds *Processing and value addition Production of refined mineral oil,
and agrochemicals to minerals petroleum jelly and grease
Market Research Domestic Manufacturing of LPG
Mating/ Breeding and cylinders
Hatching Retail distribution
Packaging/ St Small-scale production of chemicals
and solvents from natural gas
Production of solar panel
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Investment Opportunities – Agriculture
Investing in agriculture in Nigeria can be a lucrative
opportunity due to the country's growing population and
increasing demand for food products.
Sesame seeds, soybeans, cocoa, and cashew nuts are the
leading exported agricultural produce as of 2023’Q4.
Globally, the total untapped export potential of sesame
seeds stands at US$3.2bn, according to the International
Trade Center (ITC) export trade map.
Investing in sesame farming, for example, allows investors to
become vital players in the agricultural value chain while
reaping the benefits of a growing worldwide market.
Similarly, one of the leading commodities exchanges in Nigeria,
AFEX, has predicted the increase in prices of major agricultural
produce, including maize, rice, cocoa, and sorghum.
Financial investors can, therefore, take advantage of
commodity exchanges and allocate their funds to these
commodities
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Investment Opportunities – Agriculture Contd.
Also, there is substantial untapped potential in the agricultural
value chain.
According to the World Bank, an alarming 40% of the food
Nigeria produces every year is lost before it even reaches
consumers.
This highlights a significant demand for efficient cold storage
facilities and transportation services.
For instance, ColdHubs, a Nigerian company, operates solar-
powered cold rooms, providing a pay-as-you-store service for
fresh produce to smallholder farmers and market merchants.
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Investment Opportunities –
Renewable Energy With rising worldwide awareness of climate change and a drive
for sustainable practices, the renewable energy sector has
emerged as a viable investment option.
Companies that produce renewable energy, such as solar, wind,
and hydroelectric electricity, are expanding at a rapid pace.
The renewable energy market potential is huge in Nigeria, yet it
is slowly evolving.
However, the increase in fuel prices is causing Nigerians to take
a closer look at the potential in the renewable energy sector.
Also, the 2023 Electricity Act encourages the integration of
renewable energy technologies into the existing grid system.
By introducing measures to incentivize investment in
renewable energy projects, such as feed-in tariffs (a policy
that ensures a fixed price for renewable electricity supplied
into the grid) and tax incentives.
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Commodity Exchanges
Operating in Nigeria
AFEX Commodities
Exchange Limited Gezawa Commodity
(AFEX) Exchange (GZX) Others
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Comparative Returns on Different Investment
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2024
Commodity Market
Risks and Hedging
Commodity
Market Risks
Price Risk Supply Risk Currency Risk
The risk of loss resulting from This is the risk of loss due to This is the risk of loss due to
adverse price movements in a supply disruptions that affect the changes in exchange rates
commodity. availability of a commodity. between currencies.
It can arise due to weather
This risk arises when the price It can affect the cost of
events, natural disasters,
of a commodity change in a imports or exports of
geopolitical tensions, or other
direction that is unfavorable to commodities.
factors.
a business or investor.
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Commodity Market
Hedging
Hedging with Futures Market Information and
Diversification and Options Analysis