Reliability Assessment of Power System

Considering the Impact of Wind Energy

Shuai Shi K L Lo
Power Systems Research Group Power Systems Research Group
Institute of Energy and Environment Institute of Energy and Environment
University of Strathclyde University of Strathclyde
United Kingdom United Kingdom
shuai.shi@strath.ac.uk s.lo@eee.strath.ac.uk

other energy technology increase at such a huge rate. At the

Abstract- Power companies around the world are end of 2005, the total world wind turbine capacity was
incorporating wind power into their electricity networks. Wind
power is an intermittent source of energy and their technical
60,000MW [2].
and financial impacts on the transmission and distribution
networks are not totally known. Due to this situation, it is
necessary to study the influences of wind energy on electric
network. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects
of wind energy on power systems reliability and operating
reserve associated with wind power. The uncertainty of the wind
power output means that operating reserves from conventional
sources are needed. Different reliability models of power systems
are presented. The paper presents a method of Monte Carlo
simulation combined with Frequency & Duration method. The
combination has proven to give an effective modeling for
estimating system reliability and operating reserves for system
with wind power. Computational results of a sample system will
be included to support the proposed concept.
Fig.1. Development of world wind capacity, between 1990
Index Terms—Frequency & Duration method, Monte Carlo and 2005 [2]
simulation, reliability, wind power, wind turbine output,
operating reserve.
It is well understood that wind power generation is an
inconsistent and intermittent energy source. The fluctuation
I. INTRODUCTION of wind speed is almost constant and this fluctuation also
depends on the location of wind farms. This means that the
Wind power has existed and developed for more than one power output from the wind turbine also fluctuates. Due to
hundred years. Although the development of wind power this situation, it is necessary to study the influences of wind
generation had stagnated for a period, because of the main energy on electric network.
energy source during that period was fossil fuel. As people As the nature of wind is intermittent, therefore wind speed
have already known that fossil energy resources are limited, is highly variable and site specific [3]. Weibull distribution
such as oil, natural gas and coal will have significant can be used to represent many different distribution
shortages in the next few decades. In addition, many characteristics by appropriate adjustment to its parameter α
countries of the world have strong policy against increasing and β. Hence it is commonly used to simulate the varying
nuclear power plants. For example, Germany's coalition wind speed characteristic. The output characteristic of wind
government has announced a reversal of policy that will see source is completely different from other conventional prime
all the country's nuclear power plants phased out by 2022 [1]. movers. It is a nonlinear relationship between wind turbine
Conventional energy generation has always contributed to output and wind speed. With the Weibull distribution
global warming and climate change. Wind power generation function, it can simulate the wind speed profile and this
seems to be a remarkable renewable energy source that would makes it easier to model the wind output as a function of
meet the requirement in the reduction of emissions from wind speed.
electrical power systems. In this paper, the Capacity Outage Probability Table
There is a trend that world wind capacity doubled almost (COPT) is first introduced as a simple and convenient
every three years in Fig.1. This is nearly impossible for any approach for conventional reliability assessment. But when
used with wind power, the calculation is inconvenient and
inefficient, because wind power output is constantly changing TABLE I
and it will make the scale of COPT unmanageable. On the COPT for 3 non-identical units [7]
contrary, Monte Carlo simulation can sample the random Capacity available Capacity State probability
power output, which is very effective for simulating wind unavailable
energy. The use of Monte Carlo simulation on its own is not C1+C2+C3 0 p1*p2*p3
sufficient and in this paper it is used in combination with the C1+C2 C3 p1*p2*(1-p3)
Frequency & Duration method. C2+C3 C1 p2*p3*(1-p1)
The structure of this paper is as follows: Section II presents C3+C1 C2 p3*p1*(1-p2)
power system reliability methods. In Section III, a case study C1 C2+C3 p1*(1-p2)*(1-p3)
of Frequency & Duration method is described. The details of C2 C1+C3 p2*(1-p1)*(1-p3)
wind power generation are discussed in section IV. Section V C3 C1+C2 p3*(1-p1)*(1-p2)
presents the conclusions. 0 C1+C2+C3 (1-p1)*(1-p2)*(1-
p3)
II. POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY METHODS
As shown in the Table I, this method can be extended
Generally speaking, power system reliability assessment simply when new units are added sequentially to the system
can be dividing into two parts, system adequacy and system with the capacity model building approach. It is very simply
security. System adequacy relates to the existence of and convenience for calculation when the total number of
sufficient facilities within the system to satisfy the consumer units is small.
load demand [4]. Therefore, system adequacy usually regards Another important basic index for system reliability
to static situation, not for system disturbances. System evaluation is called the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE). It
security relates to the ability of the system to respond to is defined as the average number of hours or days per year for
dynamic or transient disturbances arising within the system which the load is expected to exceed the available generating
[5]. So, system security will take action on the system capacity.
whatever disturbances are subjected. In addition, the concept Frequency and duration method is an extension of the
of reliability, which used in this paper means system LOLE index; this means it also concerns about the expected
adequacy. frequency of deficiencies and the expected duration of
Also, the methods of reliability assessment can be divided deficiencies [8]. Therefore, it contains additional information,
into two aspects: deterministic and probabilistic methods. which can give further details about the generating system. In
Most published approaches for large electrical power systems this paper, we just concern about no derated states for
use probabilistic methods. Probabilistic methods concentrate generators.
on a better understanding of the impacts on system operation The general expressions for Frequency & Duration method
associated with the intermittent nature of wind power are as follows [4]:
generation.
p(X) =p'(X)(1 - U) +p'(X- C)U (1)
A. Analytical Methods X
At the present time, there are many generally accepted 1 X μ
methods for calculating power system reliability [6]. The
most popular methods are the Capacity Outage Probability (2)
Table (COPT) and Frequency and Duration method (F&D).
These methods can reflect the system adequacy of the 1
installed generating capacity.
The capacity outage probability table (COPT) is usually a (3)
combination of every capacity levels with the probabilities of Where:
existence. For instance, there are three non-identical units in a : expected failure rate
power system. The COPT can be representing by Table I. C1, μ: expected repair rate
C2 and C3 are the capacities of generators 1, 2 and 3. p1, p2 : Individual state probability
and p3 are the probabilities of generators 1, 2 and 3 being in X : Upward capacity departure rate after unit addition
service respectively. : Downward capacity departure rate after unit addition
 In Equations (1), (2) and (3), if X is less than C 3 100 0.01 0.49
p'(X- C) = 0
=0 Step 1: add No.1 unit:
=0 TABLE III Capacity outage model with No.1 unit
With the first unit added into the system is C1. In this case
Capacity Probability λ＋(X) λ-(X)
0 =0
0 = 1 Outage p (X) (occ/day) (occ/day)
λ C = μ1 (MW)
λ C =0
0 0.98 0 0.01
X = = 0 for X 0, C1
B. Simulation Method 50 0.02 0.49 0
The analytical methods work well for conventional
generating systems and are used widely all over the world.
But wind power generation has stochastic outputs; the
Step 2: add No.2 unit
analytical methods cannot satisfy the system economic
According to Frequency & Duration method, the results
conditions and technical solutions, because of the random,
can be calculated by using equations (1), (2) and (3).
time-correlated chronological variation of wind speed.
p(0)= 0.98*0.98+0*0.02= 0.9604
Compared with COPT, Monte Carlo simulation samples
p(50)= 0.02*0.98+0.98*0.02= 0.0392
the random variables of system components states without
p(100)= 0*0.98+0.02*0.02= 0.0004
consideration of the generating units’ output nature, which . .
+ (0) = =0
makes it an effective tool to accommodate wind turbine .
. . . .
output fluctuations. In this paper, the application of Monte + (50) = = 0.49
.
Carlo simulation uses the sequential method as it can provide . . .
+ (100) = = 0.98
important indices such as frequency and average duration of .
. . .
load loss. -(0) = = 0.02
.
The procedure of the simulation can be briefly reviewed as . . . .
-(50) = = 0.01
[7]: .
. .
(1). Develop operating history for each of the generating units -(100) = =0
.
in the system.
(2). Combining all the generating units in the system during With the results calculated by recursive approach, it is then
the whole operating period to assess the system available possible to construct a capacity outage model with these two
generating capacity. units. The data are shown in Table IV.
(3). The system availability is obtained by superimposing the
generation availability curve on the load curve at every single Step 3: add No.3 unit
time interval. The complete generation capacity model is shown in Table
(4). Compute the appropriate reliability indices. V. The individual capacity state probabilities can be
combined with X and to give the individual state
III. CASE STUDY frequencies. These values can also be used to give the
cumulative state probabilities and frequencies using equations
The example given is a small electrical system, which has (4) and (5) given below respectively.
three generating units. The data are shown in Table II. P(X) = P(Y) + p(X) (4)
Each of the 50MW units has an availability and
unavailability of 0.98 and 0.02 respectively; it assumes larger F(X) = F(Y) + p(X)[ X - λ-(X)] (5)
units have better reliability level, so 100MW unit has an Y: the capacity outage just larger than X MW.
availability and unavailability of 0.99 and 0.01 respectively.
TABLE IV
TABLE II
Capacity outage model with No.1 unit and No.2 unit
System data
Unit No. Capacity(MW) Failure Repair Capacity Probability λ＋(X) λ-(X)
rate(f/day) rate(r/day) Outage p (X) (occ/day) (occ/day)
(MW)
1 50 0.01 0.49
2 50 0.01 0.49 0 0.9604 0 0.02
 50 0.0392 0.49 0.01 β x β −1 ⎡ ⎛x⎞ β
⎤
100 0.0004 0.98 0 f ( x) = β
exp ⎢ − ⎜ ⎟ ⎥ (6)
α ⎢⎣ ⎝ α ⎠ ⎥⎦
Where x 0, α>0 and β 0.
TABLE V
Complete generation model The scale of a Weibull distribution is determined by α. In
Capacity Probability λ＋(X) λ-(X) the simulation of the wind speed, α is the mean wind speed in
Outage (MW) p (X) m/s. The normal setting of α is 7 [9] which represents a mean
(occ/day) (occ/day)
wind speed of 7 m/s however this value could be altered
0 0.950796 0 0.0300 depends on the site. Then, the shape of Weibull distribution is
50 0.038808 0.4900 0.0200 controlled by β. Also, the normal setting of β for wind is 2
[9].
100 0.010000 0.5094 0.0196
The cumulative Weibull probability distribution function
150 0.000392 0.9796 0.0100 can be represent as
200 0.000004 1.4700 0 ⎡ ⎛ x ⎞β ⎤
F ( x ) = 1 − exp ⎢ − ⎜ ⎟ ⎥ (7)
⎢⎣ ⎝ α ⎠ ⎥⎦
With the parameters α and β chosen, the equation for wind
Capacity f(x) Probability F(X) speed model can be determined by using the inverse
Outage (occ/day) P (X) (occ/day) transform method. Let U=F(x), which U is uniformly
(MW) distributed random variable between [0, 1]. Then, it is
0 0.028524 1.000000 0
possible to generate the wind speed equation.
Ws =x =α[-In(U)1/β] (8)
50 0.019792 0.049204 0.023524 B. Wind turbine output model
Wind energy is completely different from other
100 0.005290 0.010396 0.005284 conventional energy sources. There is a nonlinear relationship
between wind turbine output and wind speed. With the
150 0.000388 0.000396 0.000386 Weibull distribution function, it can simulate the wind speed
profile, then, it is possible to model the wind turbine output as
200 0.000006 0.000004 0.000006 a function of wind speed. The wind turbine output is shown
in Fig.2.
The wind turbine output can be obtained from simulated
From this complete generation model table, the average of
wind speed using equation (9).
duration for a particular capacity outage can be calculated
using these data. This is the advantage of the frequency and ⎧0 Ws < Vci
duration method that it can reflect more details of the ⎪ 2 Vci ≤ Ws < Vr
reliability assessment of power system. ⎪( A + B × Ws + C × Ws ) × Pwr (9)
Pw = ⎨
⎪ Pwr
Vr ≤ Ws < Vco
IV. WIND POWER GENERATION ⎪0
⎩ Vco ≤ Ws
A. Wind speed model
As the nature of wind is intermittent, therefore wind speed Where:
is highly variable and site specific. Weibull distribution can Ws = the wind speed
be used to represent many different distribution
characteristics by modifying its parameters α and β. Pwr = rating power output of wind turbine
Therefore, it is usually used to simulate the wind speed Vci = designed cut-in speed of wind turbine
variation characteristic.
The individual Weibull probability distribution function Vr = designed rated speed of wind turbine
can be represent as Vco = designed cut-out speed of wind turbine
The constants of A, B, C can be calculated using the
following equations [9]:
 ⎡ ⎛ Vci + Vr ⎞ ⎤
3 Time/hours 12- 1- 2- 3- 4- 5-
1
A= ⎢V ci (V ci + V r ) − 4 V V
ci r ⎜ ⎟ ⎥ 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm
(Vci − Vr )2 ⎢ ⎝ 2Vr ⎠ ⎥
⎣ ⎦ Load/MW 52.1 51.5 50.4 49.3 50.4 51.5
1 ⎡ ⎛ Vci + Vr ⎞
3
⎤ Time/hours 6- 7- 8- 9- 10- 11-
B= ⎢ 4(V ci + V r ) ⎜ ⎟ − 3(V ci + V r ) ⎥ 7pm 8pm 9pm 10pm 11pm 12am
(Vci − Vr )2 ⎢ ⎝ 2Vr ⎠ ⎥⎦
⎣
Load/MW 53.8 54.8 53.8 50.4 44.8 39.2
1 ⎡ ⎛ Vci + Vr ⎞ ⎤
3

C= ⎢ 2 − 4 ⎜ ⎟ ⎥
(Vci − Vr ) 2 ⎢ ⎝ 2Vr ⎠ ⎥⎦ The calculation progress can be shown as
⎣
(1) Set the parameter α and β for Weibull distribution,
normally they are 7 and 2; generate a U, which is
uniformly distributed random variable between [0, 1].
(2) Set the cut-in, rated and cut-out wind speeds and rated
output for wind turbines.
(3) Generate a random variable and calculate wind speed Ws.
(4) Calculate the constants of A, B and C.
(5) Calculate the wind turbine outputs with equation (9).
MATLAB is used to simulate the curve of the power output
of the wind turbines using Monte Carlo simulation; the results
are shown in the Fig.3. In Fig.4 and Fig.5, the full line
represents the total generation output and the load curve can
be shown by the dash line.
In Fig.3, it can be seen that the wind turbine outputs are
Fig.2. Wind turbine output curve [10] constantly changing. Even the outputs can change from
nearly 90% to 10%.It is unacceptable for the security of the
C. Example system operation. However, wind turbines are sited at
The test system has 8 generators and the details of the different locations, and this may make the fluctuation level
system are shown in Table VI. Assuming that there are two- less volatile.
3MW wind turbines with cut-in, rated and cut-out wind In Fig.4 and Fig.5, the influences of wind energy on
speeds of 4, 12 and 25 m/s respectively, the total test time is electric network can be represented by the LOLE index; when
200 hours and the time interval is 30mins. The peak load for integrating wind energy into the test system, LOLE drops
the system is 56 MW. The data on daily peak loads are given from 0.2125 days/year to 0.1375 days/year. It means that the
in Table VII. operating reserves from conventional sources are needed to
maintain the reliability level of the system.
TABLE VI
Generation data of the test system
Number of Unit Size (MW) Forced Outage
identical units Rate
3 10 0.01
4 5 0.02
1 4 0.03

TABLE VII
Daily peak load data (Residential)
Time/hours 12- 1- 2- 3- 4- 5-
1am 2am 3am 4am 5am 6am
Load/MW 35.3 34.8 33.6 32.5 33.0 36.4
Time/hours 6- 7- 8- 9- 10- 11-
7am 8am 9am 10am 11am 12am Fig.3 Wind turbine outputs
Load/MW 40.3 47.6 53.2 55.4 56 55.4
 assessment. But when there is wind power generation in the
system, the calculation is inconvenient and inefficient,
because wind power output is constantly changing; it will
make the scale of COPT become unmanageable. Compared
with COPT, Monte Carlo simulation can sample the random
variables of the power output, which is very effective for
wind energy. But Monte Carlo simulation when combined
with frequency and duration method can provide addition
information for the system operator. Therefore, the proposed
method of Monte Carlo simulation combined with Frequency
& Duration method can give an effective modeling for
estimating short operating reserve and longer term planning
reserve.

Fig.4 Conventional generation & load REFERENCES

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The conventional generation approaches depend on
consumption of large amount of fossil fuel, which are not
sustainable in the long term and can also lead to global
warming. Renewable energy generation is expected to solve
these issues. Wind power is regarded as one of the most
promising methods. However, the nature of wind is
intermittent that will make the reliability levels of power
systems decline.
The forecasting of load demand usually contains errors and
is not sufficiently accurate to use for generator dispatch. This
means that operating reserves must always be prepared and
ready to meet the errors.
In this paper, the COPT as mentioned in previous section is
a simply and convenient approach for conventional reliability