In s titu tio n a l E q u itie s

Biocon
24 October 2021

Reuters: BION.BO; Bloomberg: BIOS IN

Delay in key approvals should lead to slower growth than expected ACCUMULATE
Biocon’s 2QFY22 net profit stood at Rs 1,383mn, down 18.3% YoY but up 63.9% on a QoQ Sector: Pharmaceuticals
basis. During the quarter, Biocon reported a 406bps jump in gross margins which is primarily
attributable to higher share of developed market sales in the biosimilar business. Developed CMP: Rs324
market sales proportion in biosimilar business has jumped to 50% during the quarter. Ramp
up of insulin glargine in the US will be the most important growth driver which is currently Target Price: Rs319
factored in our numbers. We are estimating $70mn in incremental sales from insulin glargine
2QFY22 Result Update

in FY23 over FY22. Insulin glargine was recently included by Express Scripts as preferred Downside: 1%
insulin in its National Preferred Formulary (NPF) and the same should support wider uptake. Vishal Manchanda
In case of biosimilar bevacizumab, we expect significant competitive challenges as there
Research Analyst
would be 3-4 new entrants alongside Biocon / Viatris. We have factored in estimated sales of
Rs.1,500mn and Rs.2,500mn from gRevlimid in FY23 and FY24, respectively. We have revised
vishal.manchanda@nirmalbang.com
our gross margin estimates upwards but push timelines for commercialization of +919737437148
bevacizumab and insulin aspart in the US to Q4FY22 and Q3FY23, respectively. Based on our
changed forecasts, we lower our price target to Rs. 319 which is based on 25x (as against 23x Key Data
earlier) September FY23 earnings; the higher multiple is to account for the option value from Current Shares O/S (mn) 1,200.6
its various initiatives on the innovation front (Bicara therapeutics, Equilium Bio and
Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 388.8/5.2
partnership with Adagio Therapeutics). We retain ‘Accumulate’ rating on Biocon.
52 Wk H / L (Rs) 488/323
2QFY22 Result highlights
Biocon reported revenue at Rs 18,404mn in 2QFY22, up 5.5% on a YoY basis and up 4.5% on a Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 2,658,534
QoQ basis.
Generics - Generics business reported revenue at Rs 5,300mn, down 11.5% on a YoY basis but up Price Performance (%)
9% on a QoQ basis. Presently, Biocon markets its small molecule portfolio in the US only and the 1M 6M 1 Yr
portfolio is limited to only seven products commercialized. There has been pricing pressure in few of
these molecules. However, with the launch of more complex products like Everolimus, Biocon can Biocon (11.9) (18.9) (24.6)
start seeing some growth coming in from the small molecules market. Nifty Index 1.5 26.3 51.8
Biosimilars - Revenue stood at Rs 7,425mn in 2QFY22, up 9.8% on a YoY basis and down 2.1% Source: Bloomberg
on a QoQ basis. Fulphila and Ogivri have maintained market share at ~9% in the US market.
Bevacizumab was launched in new markets including Germany Croatia, Czech Republic and Latest Annual Report
Slovakia. Latest Results
Syngene Research Services - Revenue stood at Rs 6,102mn in 2QFY22, up 17.3% on a YoY
basis and up 2.6% on a QoQ basis. Syngene recorded strong performance in all divisions, adding 25
new clients in Discovery Services.
Y/E March (Rsmn) 2QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY20 FY21 YoY (%)
Revenues 17,448 17,606 18,404 5.5 4.5 63,672 71,058 11.6
Raw material expenses 5,314 6,121 5,651 6.3 (7.7) 20,522 22,085 7.6
%age of revenues 30.5 34.8 30.7 25 bps (406) bps 32.2 31.1 (109) bps
Staff costs 4,319 4,360 4,788 10.9 9.8 14,588 17,410 19.3
%age of revenues 24.8 24.8 26.0 126 bps 125 bps 22.9 24.5 159 bps
Other expenses 3,901 3,232 3,507 (10.1) 8.5 12,531 15,037 25
%age of revenues 22.4 18.4 19.1 (14.8) 3.8 19.7 21.2 148 bps
EBITDA 3,914 3,893 4,458 13.9 14.5 16,031 16,526 3.1
EBITDA margin (%) 22.4 22.1 24.2 179 bps 211 bps 25.2 23.3 (192) bps
Other income 155 472 1,049 576.8 122.2 1,614 2,545 57.7
Interest 65 199 225 246.2 13.1 649 577 (11.1)
Depreciation 1,777 1,948 2,015 13.4 3.4 5,522 7,151 30
Share of profit in JV 0 561 506 NA (9.8) -289 -792 NA
PBT before exceptional items 2,227 1,657 2,761 24.0 66.6 11,860 10,677 (10)
Exceptional Items 0 0 (701) NA NA 675 126 -81.3
Tax 223 573 463 107.6 (19.2) 3,151 2,215 (29.7)
Tax rate (%) 10.0 34.6 22.5 1246 bps (1210) bps 26.6 20.8 (582) bps
PAT before MI 2,004 1,084 1,597 (20.3) 47.3 8,709 8,462 (2.8)
MI 261 240 214 (18.0) (10.8) 1,227 1,057 (13.9)
PAT after MI 1,693 844 1,383 (18.3) 63.9 7,482 7,405 (1)
PAT Margin (%) 9.7 4.8 7.5 (219) bps 272 bps 11.8 10.4 (133) bps
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
 In s titu tio n a l E q u itie s

Conference Call highlights

 Equilium will initiate Phase 3 studies on Itolizumab in Acute Graft vs Host Disease by Q4CY21.
 Everolimus to drive growth in generics business in the second half of FY22.
 Biocon’s API:Generic formulation business split stands at 80:20.
 Revaluation gain from Biocon’s investment in Adagio Therapeutics was reported as other income gain of
Rs.550mn.
 Ogiviri has crossed 5% market share in Europe while insulin aspart has been approved in Canada.
 Developed Markets share has moved close to 50% from around 44% which has translated to margin improvement
in Biosimilar business.
 Biocon has made an investment of Rs.6,000mn in an immunosuppressant facility in Vizag. Presently, Biocon is
capacity constrained in its Bangalore facility; the additional capacity from the Vizag plant should drive further
growth in this segment. The facility is expected to be commissioned by end of this fiscal year while
commercialization of the plant is expected to occur in CY23.

Exhibit 1: Actual performance versus our/Bloomberg consensus estimates

Consensus
(Rsmn) Actual NBIE estimate Var. (%) Var. (%)
estimate
Sales 18,404 18,188 1.2 18,816 (2.2)
EBITDA 4,458 4,006 11.3 4,397 1.4
EBITDA margin (%) 24.2 22.0 220 bps 23.4 86 bps
Reported PAT 1,383 1,325 4.4 1,479 (6.5)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 2: Key financials

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Net sales 63,672 71,058 77,384 94,352 107,781
EBITDA 16,031 16,526 18,613 27,123 33,335
Net profit 7,482 7,405 7,374 13,308 17,346
EPS (Rs) 6.2 6.2 6.1 11.1 14.5
EPS growth (%) (17.4) (1.0) (0.4) 80.5 30.3
EBITDA margin (%) 25.2 23.3 24.1 28.7 30.9
P/E (x) 63.2 63.8 52.7 29.2 22.4
P/BV (x) 7.1 6.2 4.7 4.1 3.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 29.5 28.8 21.2 14.3 11.2
RoCE (%) 11.6 8.5 9.2 14.5 16.7
RoE (%) 13.0 11.1 10.4 15.6 17.1
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 3: Revised estimates

New estimates Old estimates Change (%)
Rsmn
FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E
Net sales 77,384 94,352 107,781 82,438 98,443 111,365 -6.1 -4.2 -3.2
EBITDA 18,613 27,123 33,335 21,153 30,525 37,334 -12.0 -11.1 -10.7
Margin (%) 24.1 28.7 30.9 25.7 31.0 33.5 -6.3 -7.3 -7.7
PAT 7,374 13,308 17,346 8,886 15,580 19,966 -17.0 -14.6 -13.1
Margin 9.5 14.1 16.1 10.8 15.8 17.9 (125) bps (172) bps (184) bps
EPS 6.1 11.1 14.5 7.4 13.0 16.6 -17.0 -14.6 -13.1
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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Exhibit 4: Revenue Summary

Segmental Revenue (Rs Mn) 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Biocon 11,740 12,890 10,150 12,905 12,750 13,300 12,410 12,554 12,846
Generics 5,300 5,440 5,410 5,985 5,990 5,610 5,775 4,863 5,300
Biosimilars 6,440 7,450 4,740 6,920 6,760 7,690 6,635 7,691 7,425
Syngene Research Services 4,650 5,190 6,070 4,220 5,200 5,850 6,585 5,945 6,102
Total Sales 16,390 18,080 16,220 17,125 17,950 19,150 18,995 18,499 18,948
Less: Intersegment Revenue 660 600 420 415 500 630 605 893 544
Reported Revenue 15,730 17,480 15,800 16,710 17,450 18,520 18,390 17,606 18,404

Revenue Mix 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Biocon 71.6 71.3 62.6 75.4 71.0 69.5 65.3 67.9 67.8
Generics 32.3 30.1 33.4 34.9 33.4 29.3 30.4 26.3 28.0
Biosimilars 39.3 41.2 29.2 40.4 37.7 40.2 34.9 41.0 39.2
Syngene Research Services 28.4 28.7 37.4 24.6 29.0 30.5 34.7 32.1 32.2

Q-o-Q Growth (%) 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Biocon 6.4 9.8 (21.3) 27.1 (1.2) 4.3 (6.7) 1.2 2.3
Generics 10.4 2.6 (0.6) 10.6 0.1 (6.3) 2.9 (15.8) 9.0
Biosimilars 3.4 15.7 (36.4) 46.0 (2.3) 13.8 (13.7) 14.3 (2.1)
Syngene Research Services 10.5 11.6 17.0 (30.5) 23.2 12.5 12.6 (9.7) 2.6
Reported Revenue 7.3 11.1 (9.6) 5.8 4.4 6.1 (0.7) (4.3) 4.5

Y-o-Y Growth (%) 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Biocon 21.9 14.1 (4.5) 17.0 8.6 3.2 22.3 (2.7) 0.8
Generics 22.7 16.0 14.6 24.7 13.0 3.1 6.7 (18.7) (11.5)
Biosimilars 22.4 13.9 (18.8) 11.1 5.0 3.2 40.0 9.6 9.8
Syngene Research Services 11.0 11.1 13.7 0.2 11.8 12.7 8.5 40.9 17.3
Reported Revenue 19.1 13.4 2.9 14.0 10.9 5.9 16.4 5.4 5.5
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 5: Margin Summary

Margins (%) 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Gross Margin 65.1 63.6 60.6 63.9 65.6 65.9 65.0 65.2 69.3
EBITDA Margin 25.7 25.5 20.1 24.7 22.4 21.5 23.7 22.1 24.2
EBIT Margin 17.3 17.2 10.5 14.7 12.2 11.5 13.7 11.0 13.3
PAT Margin 13.8 11.6 7.8 8.9 9.7 9.1 13.8 4.8 7.5
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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Financial statements
Exhibit 6: Income statement Exhibit 3: Exhibit 7: Cash flow
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Y/E March (Rsmn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Net sales 63,672 71,058 77,384 94,352 107,781 PBT 8,709 8,462 10,848 19,111 24,595
% growth 15.5 11.6 8.9 21.9 14.2 (Inc.)/Dec in working capital 5,522 7,151 7,947 7,896 9,209
Raw material costs 20,522 22,085 23,806 29,264 33,569 Other income (535) (5) (2,476) (2,359) (2,695)
Staff costs 14,588 17,410 19,499 21,644 24,025 Depreciation (1,651) (4,238) (1,246) (2,392) (1,891)
R&D Expenses 4,390 5,530 4,643 5,661 6,467 Net cash from operations 12,831 11,597 13,667 19,327 25,033
Other expenditure 12,531 15,037 15,467 16,321 16,852
Capital expenditure (16,042) (15,169) (15,600) (10,600) (10,600)
Total expenditure 47,641 54,532 58,772 67,229 74,446
Net cash after CapEx (3,211) (3,572) (1,933) 8,727 14,433
EBITDA 16,031 16,526 18,613 27,123 33,335
Other investing activities 453 (21,078) 2,476 2,359 2,695
% growth 15.0 3.1 12.6 45.7 22.9
Cash from Financial Activities 3,876 25,640 (5,241) (4,791) (5,019)
EBITDA margin (%) 25.2 23.3 24.1 28.7 30.9
Opening cash 6,593 8,247 20,154 15,456 21,751
Other income 1,614 2,545 2,476 2,359 2,695
Closing cash 9,986 20,154 15,456 21,751 33,859
Interest costs 649 577 844 1,275 1,225
Change in cash 3,393 11,907 (4,698) 6,294 12,109
Gross profit 43,150 48,973 53,578 65,087 74,212
% growth 19.3 13.5 9.4 21.5 14.0 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Depreciation 5,522 7,151 7,947 7,896 9,209
Exceptional Items 675 126 - Exhibit
- - Exhibit 9: Key ratios
4:
Share of Profit/(Loss) of JV -289 -792 -1,450 -1,200 -1,000 Y/E March FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Profit before tax 11,860 10,677 10,848 19,111 24,595
Profitability & return ratios
% growth -2.4 -10.0 1.6 76.2 28.7
EBITDA margin (%) 25.2 23.3 24.1 28.7 30.9
Tax 3,151 2,215 2,251 4,204 5,411
EBIT margin (%) 19.0 16.8 17.0 22.9 24.9
Effective tax rate (%) 26.6 20.7 20.7 22.0 22.0
Net profit margin (%) 13.7 11.9 11.1 15.8 17.8
Net profit 7,482 7,405 7,374 13,308 17,346
RoE (%) 13.0 11.1 10.4 15.6 17.1
% growth -17.4 -1.0 -0.4 80.5 30.3
RoCE (%) 11.6 8.5 9.2 14.5 16.7
EPS (Rs) 6.2 6.2 6.1 11.1 14.5
Working capital & liquidity ratios
% growth -17.4 -1.0 -0.4 80.5 30.3
Receivables (days) 72 63 60 57 59
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Exhibit 1:
Inventory (days) 219 273 297 280 289
it 2: Exhibit 8: Balance sheet Payables (days) 224 235 241 227 234
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Working capital days 67 101 116 110 113
Equity 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 Current ratio (x) 2.7 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.2
Reserves 61,058 70,269 76,942 89,549 106,193 Quick ratio (x) 1.9 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.3
Net worth 67,058 76,269 82,942 95,549 112,193 Valuation ratios
Minority Interest 6,773 8,807 8,807 8,807 8,807 EV/sales (x) 6.1 5.5 5.1 4.1 3.5
Total debt 18,898 35,558 33,085 31,869 30,614 EV/EBITDA (x) 24.3 23.7 21.2 14.3 11.2
Other non-current liabilities 31,663 41,798 41,798 41,798 41,798 P/E (x) 52.0 52.5 52.7 29.2 22.4
Liabilities 124,392 162,432 166,633 178,023 193,413 P/BV (x) 5.8 5.1 4.7 4.1 3.5
Net block 53,932 55,573 63,756 67,230 69,639
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Capital WIP 15,765 22,535 20,035 17,535 15,035
Intangible Assets 4,232 6,269 7,787 9,084 10,162
Intangible Assets under dev. 6,195 5,467 5,548 5,629 5,709
Other non-current assets 11,064 19,375 19,747 20,098 20,421
Current Investments 8,576 12,087 12,087 12,087 12,087
Inventories 14,359 18,666 20,120 24,734 28,372
Debtors 12,237 12,176 13,260 16,167 18,469
Cash 9,986 20,154 15,456 21,751 33,859
Other current assets 8,092 12,921 12,921 12,921 12,921
Total current assets 53,250 76,004 73,845 87,660 105,708
Creditors 13,251 15,139 16,319 20,060 23,011
Other current liabilities 6,795 7,652 7,765 9,153 10,251
Total current liabilities 20,046 22,791 24,084 29,213 33,262
Net current assets 33,204 53,213 49,761 58,447 72,446
Total assets 124,392 162,432 166,633 178,023 193,413
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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 In s titu tio n a l E q u itie s

P/E Chart
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Source: BSE, Bloomberg, Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Rating track
Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs)
10 June 2016 Sell 119 104
25 July 2016 Sell 135 105
11 August 2016 Sell 141 105
14 February 2017 Sell 179 122
2 May 2017 Sell 181 122
28 July 2017 Sell 195 124
27 October 2017 Sell 179 154
25 January 2018 Sell 304 167
27 April 2018 Sell 327 160
30 July 2018 Sell 291 160
29 October 2018 Sell 311 230
28 January 2019 Sell 325 230
26 April 2019 Sell 310 253
26 July 2019 Accumulate 239 257
24 October 2019 Accumulate 245 252
27 January 2020 Sell 294 247
27 March 2020 Accumulate 283 272
23 April 2020 Sell 361 272
18 May 2020 Sell 328 272
27 July 2020 Sell 430 272
23 September 2020 Sell 422 299
23 October 2020 Sell 418 299
7 January 2021 Sell 460 325
22 January 2021 Sell 403 325
30 April 2021 Sell 394 302
25 July 2021 Sell 402 299
26 September 2021 Sell 360 341
28 September 2021 Accumulate 358 341
24 October 2021 Accumulate 324 319

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Biocon
In s titu tio n a l E q u itie s
 In s titu tio n a l E q u itie s

DISCLOSURES

This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “NBEPL”) for private circulation. NBEPL is a
registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH000001436. NBEPL is also
a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments.

NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have
different or contrary views on stocks and markets.

NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in
securities Market. NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBEPL or
its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the
subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject
company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report.

NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the
company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other
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Analyst Certification: I, Vishal Manchanda, research analyst, the author of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflects my personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also
certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific
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taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.

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 In s titu tio n a l E q u itie s

Disclaimer
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BUY > 15%
ACCUMULATE -5% to15%
SELL < -5%
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