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Jubilant Pharmova
24 October 2021

Reuters: JULS.BO; Bloomberg: JOL IN

Earnings to remain subdued ACCUMULATE
We retain accumulate rating on Jubilant Pharmova with a price target of Rs.658 which is
Sector: Pharmaceuticals
based on 20x September FY23E earnings. We expect earnings in the near to medium
term to remain subdued. 1HFY22 has benefitted from the COVID portfolio which may not CMP: Rs604
recur in 2HFY22. Recovery of Radiopharma sales is expected in the subsequent
quarters which might offset the decline in generics and CMO business on account of Target Price: Rs658
2QFY22 Result Update

tapering of contribution from COVID portfolio. Radiopharma recovery would primarily Upside: 9%
be led by normalization of DTPA and MAA sales (used in lung scans) and
Radiopharmacy sales (distribution business). Ruby-Fill (PET imaging cardiac scans) Vishal Manchanda
ramp up can help the company deliver a positive surprise, but execution so far has not Research Analyst
been as per expectations due to various reasons. The contract research and drug vishal.manchanda@nirmalbang.com
discovery business remains on a strong trajectory and the announced reorganization to +919737437148
combine this with the API business should further add strength. The reorganization is
expected to be completed by 4QFY22 and would help leverage client relationships for
end to end contracts i.e. discovery to commercial manufacturing. Ongoing capacity Key Data
expansion on the CMO front will yield commercial revenues only post FY24, until then Current Shares O/S (mn) 159.3
there might only be marginal growth in business. Investments in Jubilant therapeutics Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 96.2/1.3
and Radiopharma pipeline may have disproportionately high intrinsic value, but 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 999/585
commercial success is a long path.
Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 299,120
2QFY22 Earnings Highlights
Jubilant Pharmova reported revenue at Rs.16,575mn in 2QFY22, down 30.2% YoY basis and up
1.4%. 2QFY22 net profit came in at Rs.1,426mn, down 36.4% YoY and down 11.1% QoQ. The Price Performance (%)
decline was led by lower sales in Generics business at Rs 3,300 mn in 2QFY22, down 22.4% YoY 1M 6M 1 Yr
and down 24.1% QoQ. Specialty Pharma is seeing slow recovery as Radiopharma business is yet Jubilant Pharmova (2.6) (26.1) (7.3)
to normalize with United States facing a surge in COVID cases this quarter. Earnings were
bolstered by CDMO and Contract Research and Development Services segments as they delivered Nifty Index 1.5 26.3 51.8
double digit growth this quarter. Net Debt stood at Rs.1,230mn as on Sept 30, 2021. Capital Source: Bloomberg
Expenditure excluding R&D was Rs.1,310mn this quarter; Jubilant Pharmova has maintained its
Capex guidance in the range of Rs.7,000mn to 8,000mn for FY22. Latest Annual Report
Latest Results
Y/E March (Rsmn) 2QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY20 FY21 YoY (%)
Revenues 23,749 16,347 16,575 -30.2 1.4 91,544 60,985 -33.4
Raw material expenses 8,506 3,606 4,392 -48.4 21.8 31,406 15,360 -51.1
%age of revenues 35.8 22.1 26.5 (932) bps 444 bps 34.3 25.2 (912) bps
Staff costs 5,583 4,992 5,093 -8.8 2.0 21,277 19,229 -9.6
%age of revenues 23.5 30.5 30.7 722 bps 19 bps 23.2 31.5 829 bps
Other expenses 4,798 3,996 3,694 -23.0 -7.6 19,391 12,432 -35.9
%age of revenues 20.2 24.4 22.3 208 bps (216) bps 21.2 20.4 (80) bps
EBITDA 4,862 3,752 3,395 -30.2 -9.5 19,471 13,965 -28.3
EBITDA margin (%) 20.5 23.0 20.5 1 bps (247) bps 21.3 22.9 163 bps
Other income 73 39 45 -38.9 14.4 474 176 -62.8
Interest 640 346 347 -45.7 0.3 2,874 1,841 -35.9
Depreciation 1,158 880 998 -13.9 13.3 4,619 3,490 -24.5
PBT Before Exceptionals 3,137 2,565 2,094 -33.2 -18.3 12,452 8,811 -29.2
Exceptional Items 0 0 0 NA NA 346 212 -38.7
Share of profit / (loss) of an associate 0 -100 -14 NA NA 0 113 NA
PBT 3,137 2,465 2,080 -33.7 -15.6 12,105 8,711 -28.0
Tax 896 860 654 -27.0 -24.0 3,123 2,972 -4.8
Tax rate (%) 28.5 33.5 31.2 268 bps (231) bps 25.1 33.7 865 bps
Profit after tax of discontinued operations 0 0 0 - - 0 2,618 NA
PAT 2,241 1,605 1,426 -36.4 -11.1 8,982 8,244 -8.2
PAT Margin (%) 9.4 9.8 8.6 (83) bps (121) bps 9.8 13.7 389 bps
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
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Earnings Call Highlights

 Jubilant Pharmova has doubled Ruby-Fill manufacturing capacity.
 CMO business gained on the back of Covid related deals of around Rs.1,600mn compared to
Rs.2,000mn in Q1’FY22 and Rs.930mn in Q2’FY21.
 Capacity expansion project at Spokane is expected to get completed by end of CY24 which will help in
driving further growth of the CMO business.
 Jubilant is facing price increase for some key starting materials (KSMs) and solvents imported from
China. Jubilant Pharmova would be passing on this increase in input costs to the finished product. There
have been ongoing efforts to reduce dependency on imports from China for KSMs by developing them
indigenously.
 Jubilant’s generic business faced pricing pressure in the US market and lower volume sales due to the
import alert at the Roorkee plant. Additionally, it also faced import issues in the sartan portfolio led by
involuntary withdrawals, partially offset by higher remdesivir sales.
 As the Roorkee plant is under restricted import alert, Jubilant is making arrangements to get some
restricted products contract manufactured and then launch them into the US market, the transfer process
will take some time.

Exhibit 1: Actual performance versus our/Bloomberg consensus estimates

Consensus
(Rsmn) Actual NBIE estimate Var. (%) Var. (%)
estimate
Sales 16,575 15,022 10.3 16,003 3.6
EBITDA 3,395 2,970 14.3 4,039 (15.9)
EBITDA margin (%) 20.5 19.8 71 bps 25.2 (476) bps
Reported PAT 1,426 1,265 12.7 1,965 (27.4)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 2: Key financials

Y/E March (Rsmn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Net sales 91,544 60,985 58,289 59,618 64,197
EBITDA 19,471 13,965 12,163 11,584 12,996
Net profit 8,982 8,356 5,113 4,817 5,671
EPS (Rs) 56.4 52.5 32.1 30.2 35.6
EPS growth (%) 55.7 (7.0) (38.8) (5.8) 17.7
EBITDA margin (%) 21.3 22.9 20.9 19.4 20.2
P/E (x) 10.7 11.5 18.8 20.0 17.0
P/BV (x) 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.5 8.3 9.0 9.1 7.7
RoCE (%) 17.7 13.7 12.9 12.1 13.8
RoE (%) 17.3 10.9 10.6 9.0 9.7
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 3: No change in estimates

New estimates Old estimates Change (%)
Rsmn
FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E
Net sales 58,289 59,618 64,197 58,289 59,618 64,197 - - -
EBITDA 12,163 11,584 12,996 12,163 11,584 12,996 - - -
Margin (%) 20.9 19.4 20.2 20.9 19.4 20.2 - - -
PAT 5,113 4,817 5,671 5,113 4,817 5,671 - - -
Margin (%) 8.8 8.1 8.8 8.8 8.1 8.8 - - -
EPS 32.1 30.2 35.6 32.1 30.2 35.6 - - -
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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Exhibit 4: Revenue Summary

Segmental Revenue (Rs Mn) 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Pharmaceuticals 14,522 14,502 14,834 10,957 15,165 16,919 14,856 15,414 15,432
Specialty 7,430 7,640 7,870 5,340 5,850 5,820 6,020 6,320 6,510
Generics 2,980 2,930 3,090 2,820 4,250 4,600 3,090 4,350 3,300
CDMO 4,110 3,930 3,880 2,790 5,060 6,500 5,740 4,740 5,620
Contract Research and
- 680 750 570 750 790 940 880 1,080
Development Services
Proprietary Novel Drugs - - 10 40 - - - - 20
Total 14,522 15,182 15,594 11,567 15,915 17,709 15,796 16,294 16,532

Revenue Mix (%) 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Pharmaceuticals 100.0 95.5 95.1 94.7 95.3 95.5 94.0 94.6 93.3
Specialty 51.2 50.3 50.5 46.2 36.8 32.9 38.1 38.8 39.4
Generics 20.5 19.3 19.8 24.4 26.7 26.0 19.6 26.7 20.0
CDMO 28.3 25.9 24.9 24.1 31.8 36.7 36.3 29.1 34.0
Contract Research and
0.0 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.5 6.0 5.4 6.5
Development Services
Proprietary Novel Drugs 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Q-o-Q Growth (%) 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Pharmaceuticals 10.0 (0.1) 2.3 (26.1) 38.4 11.6 (12.2) 3.8 0.1
Specialty 2.5 2.8 3.0 (32.1) 9.6 (0.5) 3.4 5.0 3.0
Generics (13.6) (1.7) 5.5 (8.7) 50.7 8.2 (32.8) 40.8 (24.1)
CDMO 58.7 (4.4) (1.3) (28.1) 81.4 28.5 (11.7) (17.4) 18.6
Contract Research and
NA NA 10.3 (24.0) 31.6 5.3 19.0 (6.4) 22.7
Development Services
Proprietary Novel Drugs NA NA NA 300.0 (100.0) NA NA NA NA
Total 9.3 4.5 2.8 (25.9) 37.6 11.3 (10.8) 3.2 1.5

Y-o-Y Growth (%) 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Pharmaceuticals 9.5 2.3 6.0 (17.0) 4.4 16.7 0.1 40.7 1.8
Specialty 4.4 0.9 13.2 (26.3) (21.3) (23.8) (23.5) 18.4 11.3
Generics 20.2 0.0 17.5 (18.3) 42.6 57.0 0.0 54.3 (22.4)
CDMO 10.5 5.1 (13.2) 7.7 23.1 65.4 47.9 69.9 11.1
Contract Research and
NA NA NA NA NA 16.2 25.3 54.4 44.0
Development Services
Proprietary Novel Drugs NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Total 9.0 6.6 11.0 (13.0) 9.6 16.7 1.2 40.9 3.9
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 5: Margin Summary

Margins (%) 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22
Gross Margin 65.9 66.6 64.9 67.3 64.2 74.1 75.4 77.9 73.5
EBITDA Margin 20.7 21.9 22.4 16.0 20.5 27.8 23.7 23.0 20.5
EBIT Margin 15.5 17.0 17.0 10.0 15.6 22.4 18.3 17.6 14.5
PAT Margin 11.0 8.8 10.9 4.6 9.4 12.4 10.9 9.8 8.6
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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Financial statements
Exhibit 6: Income statement Exhibit 2: Exhibit 7: Cash flow
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Y/E March (Rsmn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Net sales 91,544 60,985 58,289 59,618 64,197 PBT 12,105 12,120 7,413 6,854 7,988
% growth 0.5 (33.4) (4.4) 2.3 7.7 (Inc.)/Dec in working capital -1,797 2,499 1,721 -270 -543
Raw material costs 31,406 15,360 14,484 15,132 16,122 Cash flow from operations 10,309 14,619 9,134 6,584 7,445
Staff costs 21,277 19,229 19,760 20,748 21,993
Other income -215 -139 -200 -220 -242
Other expenditure 19,391 12,432 11,882 12,153 13,087
Other non-cash expenses 3,203 2,787 1,250 1,250 1,250
Total expenditure 72,073 47,021 46,126 48,034 51,202
EBITDA 19,471 13,965 12,163 11,584 12,996 Depreciation 4,619 4,517 3,700 3,700 4,000
% growth 12.0 (28.3) (12.9) (4.8) 12.2 Tax paid -2,487 -3,941 -2,150 -1,988 -2,316
EBITDA margin (%) 21.3 22.9 20.9 19.4 20.2 Net cash from operations 15,429 17,843 11,734 9,327 10,136
Other income 474 176 200 220 242 Capital expenditure -5,676 -5,143 -3,746 -3,539 -3,604
Interest costs 2,874 1,841 1,250 1,250 1,250 Net cash after CapEx 9,753 12,700 7,988 5,788 6,533
Gross profit 60,138 45,625 43,805 44,486 48,075
Other investing activities 2,406 -2,247 200 220 242
% growth 7.6 (24.1) (4.0) 1.6 8.1
Cash from Financial Activities -9,905 -16,971 -7,148 -3,419 -3,312
Depreciation 4,619 3,490 3,700 3,700 4,000
Profit before tax 12,105 8,598 7,413 6,854 7,988 Opening cash 10,054 12,308 6,713 7,753 10,342
% growth 33.9 (29.0) (13.8) (7.5) 16.5 Closing cash 13,999 6,713 7,753 10,342 13,804
Tax 3,123 2,972 2,150 1,988 2,316 Change in cash 2,254 -6,519 1,040 2,589 3,462
Effective tax rate (%) 25.8 34.6 29.0 29.0 29.0
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Profit after tax of discontinued
0 2,618 0 0 0
operations
Net Profit before MI 8,982 8,244 5,263 4,867 5,6713:
Exhibit Exhibit 9: Key ratios
Minority Interest 0 113 (150) (50) -
Net Profit after MI 8,982 8,356 5,113 4,817 5,671 Y/E March FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
% growth 55.7 (7.0) (38.8) (5.8) 17.7 Profitability & return ratios
EPS (Rs) 56.4 52.5 32.1 30.2 35.6 EBITDA margin (%) 21.3 22.9 20.9 19.4 20.2
% growth 55.7 (7.0) (38.8) (5.8) 17.7 EBIT margin (%) 16.2 17.2 14.5 13.2 14.0
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Net profit margin (%) 6.3 9.8 13.7 8.8 8.1
RoE (%) 17.3 10.9 10.6 9.0 9.7
it 1: Exhibit 8: Balance sheet RoCE (%) 17.7 13.7 12.9 12.1 13.8
Working capital & liquidity ratios
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Receivables (days) 51 63 50 49 47
Equity 159 159 159 159 159
Inventory (days) 190 353 261 232 230
Reserves 55,880 47,256 51,644 55,836 60,932
Payables (days) 123 191 127 121 120
Net worth 56,039 47,415 51,803 55,995 61,091
Current ratio (x) 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4
Net deferred tax liabilities 2,634 2,473 2,473 2,473 2,473
Quick ratio (x) 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4
Other non-current liabilities 2,957 3,165 3,165 3,165 3,165
Valuation ratios
Total debt 43,896 25,840 20,817 19,323 17,836
EV/sales (x) 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6
Liabilities 105,525 78,893 78,258 80,956 84,565
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.5 8.3 9.0 9.1 7.7
Net block 37,507 20,079 22,196 22,882 23,388
P/E (x) 10.7 11.5 18.8 20.0 17.0
Capital WIP 2,636 2,778 1,500 1,500 1,500
P/BV (x) 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6
Goodwill & Intangible Assets 28,209 29,305 28,513 27,665 26,762
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Loans & Advances 178 137 137 137 137
Other non-current assets 6,304 7,357 7,357 7,357 7,357
Inventories 18,454 11,294 9,415 9,836 10,479
Debtors 12,932 8,199 7,836 8,015 8,631
Cash 13,999 6,713 7,753 10,342 13,804
Other current assets 4,999 3,319 3,318 3,319 3,320
Total current assets 50,384 29,525 28,322 31,512 36,234
Creditors 10,903 5,205 4,908 5,128 5,463
Other current liabilities 8,789 5,084 4,859 4,970 5,351
Total current liabilities 19,691 10,288 9,767 10,097 10,814
Net current assets 30,692 19,237 18,556 21,415 25,420
Total assets 105,525 78,893 78,258 80,956 84,565
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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P/E Chart
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5.0

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PE Mean 1SD -1SD 1SD -2SD

Source: BSE, Bloomberg, Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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Rating track
Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs)
3 November 2017 Buy 745 833
18 January 2018 Buy 924 1,150
10 May 2018 Buy 843 1,040
30 July 2018 Buy 771 1,040
23 October 2018 Buy 650 1,021
4 February 2019 Buy 714 1,012
5 April 2019 Buy 718 1,037
20 May 2019 Buy 596 1,037
29 July 2019 Buy 445 785
23 September 2019 Buy 535 834
29 October 2019 Buy 562 792
1 February 2020 Buy 583 792
27 March 2020 Buy 262 337
23 April 2020 Buy 369 539
1 June 2020 Buy 442 539
7 September 2020 Accumulate 830 876
23 September 2020 Buy 781 918
5 November 2020 Buy 706 918
7 January 2021 Accumulate 908 904
8 February 2021 Sell 916 782
07 June 2021 Accumulate 836 835
25 July 2021 Sell 697 605
26 September 2021 Accumulate 617 658
24 October 2021 Accumulate 604 658

Rating track graph

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Not Covered Covered

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DISCLOSURES

This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “NBEPL”) for private circulation. NBEPL is a
registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH000001436. NBEPL is also
a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments.

NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have
different or contrary views on stocks and markets.

NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in
securities Market. NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBEPL or
its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the
subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject
company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report.

NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the
company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other
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Analyst Certification: I, Vishal Manchanda, research analyst, the author of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflects my personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also
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taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.

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Disclaimer
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