IJRDO-Journal of Agriculture and Research ISSN: 2455-7668

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE AND HOUSEHOLD FOOD

SECURITY IN KAZUNGULA DISTRICT

Lusajo M. Ambukege and Enock Sakala

(Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, School of Natural Sciences,

University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia)
Email: a.lusajo@yahoo.com, enoch2000@gmail.com

Abstract: The study assesses the nature and impacts of climate change induced hazards on agriculture
and food security as well as the coping strategies of vulnerable households to climate change. The study
shows that climate change is a major problem to agriculture, household food security and rural
livelihoods for majority of the households in Kazungula district. Survey findings suggests that climate
change is real and parameters such as temperature and rainfall have changed in the last 30 years (1963-
1993) affecting crop production negatively. Temperature has increased by 2° C while rainfall has
decreased by 130mm. Climate change has impacted negatively on agriculture and the four pillars of
food security (access, utilization, availability and stability). Survey findings indicate that 64 percent of
the households were exposed to climate change, youth headed households (44 percent) were less
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change compared to the elderly (56 percent) headed households.
Majority of the households were highly dependent on emergency and crisis coping strategies. The study
strongly recommends promotion and adoption of long-term adaption strategies to build the adaptive
capacity of local communities

Keywords: Climate change, Climate variability, Agriculture, Food security, Households, Kazungula

1. Introduction
Southern Africa like any other region in Africa experiences more severe droughts and floods due to
climate change, and this is projected to intensify in the future. Therefore, Zambia due to its geographical
location, high poverty levels, lack of adaptive capacity, inadequate investments in the agriculture sector
and early warning systems makes it vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change (Vincent and
Cull). The impacts of climate change will affect all sectors of the economy such as agriculture and food
security, water and energy, health, tourism and natural resources as well as infrastructure. Thus, any
abrupt change in the earth's climate system has potential to significantly affect agricultural production
and household food security among others. Increased frequency and severity of climate related hazards
pose a great risk on the majority of people living in Kazungula. Most of the households in Kazungula
district lack risk knowledge and long term planning to adapt to various climate change risks threatening
their rural livelihoods and food security.

The expected impacts of climate change at global level include an increase in the mean annual
temperature of about 1.2 to 3.4°C by 2060, a decrease in rainfall during the months of September to
November period and an increase during December to April (Thurlow et al: 2009). These changes are
projected to result into seasonal droughts, dry periods within the rainy season, intense rainfall, heat
waves, increased temperatures, flash floods and changes in growing season as a result of delayed onset
of rainy season or shortened growing periods. Since the majority of Zambia’s population live in rural
areas and are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for food and income, therefore, climate change
presents a challenge to the country’s attempts to increase agricultural production and productivity as
well as poverty alleviation which stands at 80 percent (CSO, 2010). According to the Survey conducted
by Thurlow et al., 2009 indicates that there is a 75 to 80 percent chance in any given year that there will
be either a drought or too much rain in the three zones, droughts affected Agro-ecological region I, four

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in region IIa1, and one in Zone IIb. An increase in the frequency and severity of El Niño events has been
observed from the 1980s for example strong El Niños occurred every 10 to 15 years. Further, between
1988 and 1992, more than 15 El Niño drought events were reported at regional and national level
(Kandji etal: 2006). The main objective of the survey was to examine the impacts of climate change on
household food security in Kazungula districts, Zambia.

Climate change is possibly the most significant environmental challenge of our time and poses serious
threats to sustainable development in the world and particularly in Zambia. The challenges for climate
change are substantial, particularly in the developing countries where there is high dependence on
climate sensitive natural resource sectors for food security, livelihoods and incomes. The Fourth
Assessment Report further observed that during the coming years, global climate change will impact on
food and water security in a significant but highly uncertain manner (IPCC: 2014: 5).The means and
capacity to adapt to climate change are scarce due to low levels of human and economic development
and high rates of poverty. These conditions combine to create a state of high vulnerability to climate
change in many developing countries.

Due to global warming, the climate in Africa is projected to become more variable and extreme weather
events are expected to be more frequent and severe. There is over whelming evidence that developing
countries will bear the consequences of climate change in Africa particularly Sub-Saharan Africa
(CGIAR: 2011). Agriculture which is the economic main stay of rural households, household food
security and rural livelihoods is particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change and the
adaptive capacity of rural households is extremely low. Although the global demand for food will
increase in the coming years, without seriously adaptation measures, climate change is likely to be one
of the major causes for low food production due to crop failure, collapse of fisheries and livestock
deaths. These impacts are already causing economic problems and undermining food security and these
are likely to become more severe as global warming continues (CGIAR: 2011).

Some of the climate change induced hazards affecting the rural communities include droughts, floods,
epidemics, pests and environmental degradation (Disaster Management Mitigation Unit: 2005).
Although Zambia’s economy is predominantly dependent on the exploitation of natural resources such
as mining, the agricultural sector continues to plays a significant role in the country’s economy. It is the
largest and most important source of livelihood and food security in terms of providing food, income
and employment in Zambia. Apart from mining the agricultural sector is also the major sources of
economic development. Thus productivity and efficiency of this sector is the central phenomenon to any
economic planning of the country. It is imperative to however note that this sector has come under
serious threats from the adverse effects of climate change thus impacting household food security
negatively. The adverse effects of climate change on agriculture and household food security is
significantly affecting the economic, social and environment dimensions of our national sustainable
development (Mudenda: 2010).

Agriculture and food security are highly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions due to the sensitivity
of crops to timing, amount, and intensity of rainfall and temperature fluctuations (IPCC: 2014). In this
regard, agriculture production has multiple impacts on other sectors of the economy such as health
because sufficient nutrition determines productivity to some extent. Agriculture failure results into food
insecurity. Increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall over the next ten years may limit the
potential for growth in the Agriculture sector. It must be argued that low productivity and high levels of
poverty, poor soils, poor market systems and prices coupled with the effects of climate change will
adversely affect household food security and rural livelihoods on which the majority of the people
depend on for income generation. Livestock will also be affected by drought and floods and will result
into livestock deaths because droughts will affect vegetation growth.

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2. Methodology of Research
The methodology for determining the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security
included conducting a temporal analysis of climate related risks by looking at the last 30 years and
projecting future trends using Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling CORDEX data. The Survey
involved the analysis of agricultural production figure from crop forecast surveys, analysis of climate
information from meteorological services, hydrological data and analysis of CORDEX climate global
models(Jones etal: 2011). The Survey also looked at an ensemble of different Regional Climate Models
(RCMs) from CORDEX models.

2.1 Methods
2.1.1 Study Area and Sampling
Kazungula district is geographically located between -17.6 South and 25.08 and 26.4 East of the
equator. Kazungula district lies within the valley of the Zambezi escarpment in Southern Province.
According to the 2010 Census Report, Kazungula district has 11 wards with a total number of 10,132
households. The target ward which is Sekute has 656 households. This research used non- probability
sampling in selecting the wards to be visited, institutions and focus group discussions. The research
further used probability sampling (Krejcie and Morgan sampling method) to select population and
keep the sampling error low. Krejcie and Morgan: 1970 used the following formula to determine
sampling size:

S= required sample size

= the table value of chi-square for one degree of freedom at the desired confidence level
= the population size
= the population proportion (assumed to be .50 since this would provide the maximum sample size)
= the degree of accuracy expressed as a proportion (.05)

Therefore, the total sample size for this research using Krejcie and Morgan (1970) for Sekute ward was
242 households which were interviewed during the research period. However, the selection of Sekute
ward was done using random probability sampling while the sampling of institutions utilized non-
probability sampling methods. Therefore, this research utilized both probability and non- probability
sampling methods. The household sample size for this research was derived as illustrated below:

S=

S=

S=

S=

S= 242.486

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 IJRDO-Journal of Agriculture and Research ISSN: 2455-7668

Sample Size= 242

After the sampling interval (K or I) had been calculated then the Random Start Number (RS) was picked
from the Random Start Table randomly and the sampling was cyclic. Therefore, the formula and
sampling was done as follows:
RS+ K or I
Where RS= Random Start
K or I = Sampling Interval
Therefore,
RS or First Respondent
RS+ K or I
RS+ K or I+ K or I
RS+ K or I K or +I K or +I

RS= 662
662+ 3= 665
662 +3 +3 = 668
662 + 3+ 3+3 = 671

The data was collected using three sets of questionnaires and these were administered to individual
respondents (household questionnaires), key informants at the district level (district questionnaire), key
institutions and key informants at community level (community questionnaires for focus group
discussions).

3. Results and discussion

3.1 Results
A quantitative assessment of climate change effects was based on agricultural production which was
partially determined by crop yields over a period of time. This research therefore analyzed both
temperature and precipitation as key variables of climate change in determining agriculture production
and food security. Historical agricultural data and climate data was collected from the Ministry of
Agriculture and Zambia Meteorological Department as well as the Swedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute respectively. Food security was determined by the data that was generated
through the field survey in Kazungula district.

3.1.1 Agricultural Production

According to the Survey findings the main crops grown for both sale and consumption in Kazungula
district were local maize, hybrid maize, groundnuts, sweet potatoes, vegetables mixed beans and
sorghum. The Survey findings further showed that the main livestock kept by the households were
chickens (92 percent), cattle (48 percent), goats (33 percent) and pigs (12 percent). The main staple
consumed by the in this Survey included households in Kazungula district were maize (99 percent) and
cassava (1 percent). The Survey further established that 27 percent of the consumed food was from own
production and 73 percent was from purchases outside the district.

3.1.2 Risk Knowledge

The Survey indicated that 58 percent of the households interviewed were of the perception that the local
climate had changed over the last 30 years. For instance 58 percent of the households interviewed
indicated that they were experiencing climate change while 42 percent were of the view that the
Kazungula district was not experiencing any climate change. Further, the majority of the households (58
percent) explained that Kazungula was experiencing increased occurrence of floods and increased

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temperatures every year. The data shows that Kazungula district has been experiencing frequent
occurrence of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods resulting into water stress for
livestock and crop cultivation. According to the climate information obtained from the Zambia
Meteorological Station in Livingstone for Kazungula, temperature has increased by 2.0° C while rainfall
has decreased over a long period of time (1963- 1998). Figure 2 below on historical climate trends
shows that Kazungula has been experiencing both climate change and climate variability during the
period under review (1963-1998).

From CORDEX data, the model HADGEM2_ES_CLMCUM_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP45 shows that

temperature decreased by 1.4° C under 85 RCP for the same model under business as usual increased by
1.47 ° C. All the scenarios show similar trends. The different climate scenarios below shows that climate
change is projected to increase by 2.0° C under business as usual while under mitigation climate change
is projected to increase by 1.71° C as indicated below. The annual minimum mean temperature recorded
between 1963 and 1998 was 22.47° C while the annual maximum mean temperature was 23.64° C for
the selected models.

Figure 1: Long Term Analysis of Climate Change from 1963- 1998

30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00

HADGEM2-ES_CLMCUM_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP45 HADGEM2-ES_CLMCUM_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP85 HADGEM2-ES_RCA4_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP45

HADGEM2-ES_RCA4_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP85 ZMD- Model- Historical

Source: CORDEX and Zambia Meteorological Department

3.1.3 Climate change projections under different Scenarios from 2035- 2065
Figure 2 reveals that Kazungula district is projected to experience high temperatures under
different climate scenarios and temperatures will slightly decrease if mitigation measures are
employed. For example the model HADGEM2_ES_RCAL_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP85 shows that
temperature is expected to decrease as low as 25° C by 2065 and RCP 45 shows that temperature
will rise as high as 26.71° C between 2035- 2065. The scenarios further projects that if mitigation
measures are put in place, temperature will decrease and under business as usual temperature is
projected to increase by 2065 as shown in figure 2 below.

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Figure 2: Climate Change Projections and Scenarios from 2035 - 2065

27.00

26.50

26.00

25.50

25.00

24.50

24.00

23.50

23.00

22.50

22.00
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
HADGEM2-ES_CLMCUM_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP45 HADGEM2-ES_CLMCUM_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP85
HADGEM2-ES_RCA4_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP45 HADGEM2-ES_RCA4_DBS43_WFDEI_RCP85

Source: CORDEX: 2016

3.1.4 Rainfall Performance over a Long Period of Time

The figure below indicates that there are both climate induced hazards and non- climatic hazards
affecting agriculture and household food security in the district. The Survey showed that majority of the
households were affected by increased disease burden with malaria accounting for 58 percent. The
Survey further showed that 38 percent of the households were affected by floods while 35 percent were
affected by droughts. The Survey also shows that high food prices (27 percent), pest infection (21
percent) and wild animals (18 percent) were other underlining causes of food insecurity and decreased
agricultural production in Kazungula. Though HIV/ AIDS is a social problem it has a bearing on food
security because unhealthy people cannot manage to do hard work. On the other hand human/ animal
conflict is worsened with increased dry spells as animals move closer to households in search of water.

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Figure 3 shows that in 1972 Kazungula recorded high rainfall and 1980 recoded low rainfall below 400
mm. In terms of rainfall projections, all the models predict a decrease in rainfall under business as usual
and an increase under mitigation measures.

Figure 3: Time Series Analysis of Rainfall Under Different Climate Scenarios

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5_RCA4_DBS43-WFDEI_rcp45 CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5_RCA4_DBS43-WFDEI_rcp85
ICHEC-EC-EARTH_CLMcom_DBS43-WFDEI_rcp45 ICHEC-EC-EARTH_CLMcom_DBS43-WFDEI_rcp85
Source: Cordex Data
MOHC-HadGEM2-ES_CLMcom_DBS43-WFDEI_rcp45 MOHC-HadGEM2-ES_CLMcom_DBS43-WFDEI_rcp85

3.1.5 Vulnerability of Household to Climate Change induced Hazards

The results indicated that the youth headed households aged between 20 and 34 years (40 percent) were
less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change compared to the elderly aged between 45 and above
(56 percent). This was attributed to lack of ability by the elderly to cope with the adverse impacts of
climate change.

3.2 Impacts of Climate Change on Household Food Security

3.2.1 Access to Food by Households
Using the Food consumption score as a proxy for access to food and dietary need, the research
showed that only 43 percent of the households were better- off and had access to quality food, 33
percent were on borderline while the rest of the households had poor or no access to quality food
to meet their daily dietary needs. In other words, 57 percent of the households had poor access to
food.

Table 2 below shows that food access was likely to be impacted by climate change over a period
of time. Table 2 shows that majority of the households were marginally food insecure (29 percent)
and severely food insecure (35 percent) giving a total of 64 percent of hgouseholds with poor
access to food.

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Table 1: Composite of Food Security Indicators

Food Security Food Moderately Marginally Severely
Indicators Ssecure Food Insecure F
e o
c o
u d
r
e insecure
Food Consumption 27% 0 30% 43%
Score
Asset Wealth Index 19% 0 42% 39%
Food Expenditure Share 19% 17% 19% 45%
Coping Strategies 42% 21% 25% 13%
Average Food Security 27% 0.095% 29% 35%
Indicator

Source: Field Survey, 2016

3.2.2 Food Availability

The research showed that 91 percent of the households had very low food stocks because they
produced below 100 by 50 Kg bags of maize while 5 percent of the households had moderate
stocks of maize translating into 100 to 200 by 50 Kg bags of maize compared to the marginally
food secure (2 percent) and the food secure (2 percent).

Figure 4: Food Stocks Availability or Production

Food Secure 2%

Marginaly Food Secure 2%

Moderately Food Secure 5%

Severely Food Insecure 91%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Source: Field Survey, 2016

In terms of food utilization and dietary food diversity which is an indicator for measuring
household food utilization, 96 percent of the households did not consume leguminous foods
compared to 9 percent who indicated of consuming leguminous food groups 24 hours before the
field survey. The research futher revealed that majority of the households consumed cereal food

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 IJRDO-Journal of Agriculture and Research ISSN: 2455-7668

groups (27 percent), vegetables (4 percent), Sugar (7 percent), meat (27 percent) oils foods (72
percent) and fish food groups (5 percent) and most of these foods were from purchases from other
districts like Lusaka, Choma, Sesheke, Chipata and Ndola.

3.2.3 Food Nutrition: Prevalence of Oedema in Under- Five Children

Oedema which is a form of severe acute malnutrition, characterized by swelling of both feet and
face of the child is of public health concern due to its consequences. The research revealed that
majority of children (98 percent) who were suffering from oedemaare were female. The research
further showed that Stunting, underweight and wasting was highest in children aged between 12-
23 months though it affects all children within the age group of 12 to 49 months.

3.2.4 Food Stability and Purchase Over Time

The pie chart below in Figure 25 shows that 39 percent of the households were more likely to
purchase more maize compared to the previous seasons due to less carryover stocks and low crop
yield. Majority of the households (84 percent) indicated that they had no carryover stocks resulting
into food instability. In other words, about 15 percent were likely to purchase less food because
they have stable food stocks. Figure 26 below shows that though households started running out of
food as early as May (3 percent) majority of the households run out of food stocks by November
(20 percent), February (15 percent) and March (15 percent).

Figure 5: Impacts of Climate change on Food Stability

December 10%

November 20%

September 6%

August 7%

July 7%

June 8%

May 3%

April 9%

March 15%

February 10%

January 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Source: Field Survey, 2016

3.2.5 Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production
The long - term analysis of meteorological data from the Zambia Meteorological Department shows that
the rainfall pattern in Kazungula has changed over time. The highest rainfall recorded was in 1974 and
the lowest rainfall ever recorded was in 1986. The long- term rainfall accumulation from 1962 to 2010
shows that that rainfall has decreased over time. The analysis of meteorological data shows both a
change in the climate system over a long period of time resulting in frequent occurrence of extreme
events. The reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature as shown in figure 5 makes agricultural
production to be vulnerable to climate change effects resulting into decreased crop yield or crop
production, pest infestation on crops and crop failure.

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Figure 6: Impacts of Climate Change Agricultural Production from 1975 - 2010

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
500000 1200

450000
1000
400000

350000
800
300000
Production

250000 600 Maize Production

200000 Rainfall

400
150000

100000
200
50000

0 0
1979/ 80

1996/ 97
1975/ 76
1976/ 77
1977/ 78
1978/ 79

1980/ 81
1981/ 82
1982/ 83
1983/ 84
1984/ 85
1985/ 86
1986/ 87
1987/ 88
1988/ 89
1989/ 90
1990/ 91
1991/ 92
1992/ 93
1993/ 94
1994/ 95
1995/ 96

1997/ 98
1998/ 99
1999/ 00
2000/ 01
2001/ 02
2002/ 03
2003/ 04
2004/ 05
2005/ 06
2006/ 07
2007/ 08
2008/ 09
2009/ 10
2010/ 11

Source: Zambia Meteorological Department and Ministry of Agriculture, 2016

3.2.6 Coping Strategies

The coping strategies employed by households during the occurrence of a hazard is a proxy indicator for
adaptive capacity among the affected households. The research shows that majority of households ( 41
percent) did not employee any coping strategies, while 25 percent used crisis coping strategies, 21
percent adopted stresses coping strategies and 13 percent engaged in emergency coping strategies. Crisis
coping strategies include selling productive asserts like holes, cattle and holes while stresses coping
strategies include reducing the number of meals taken per day by adults, sending children to eat from
relatives and skipping meals.

4. Discussion
This chapter discusses and analyses the Survey results in chapter five above on the impacts of climate
change on agriculture and household food security in Kazungula district. This chapter will therefore
discuss the demographic characteristic of the population, household vulnerability to household
vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and climate variability. This chapter will further discuss
and analyze the impacts of climate change household food security and the coping strategies of affected
households by climate change.

The Results shows that most of the households are affected by mainly two climate induced hazards and
these are floods and droughts with the former being the most predominant hazard. The survey showed
that most households in Kazungula district were experiencing climate change in the last 30 years hence
affecting agriculture their main source of income, food and rural livelihoods. The increased occurrence
of floods and dry spells was having negative effects on agricultural production and food security.

The perceptions were in line with the long term changes from the Zambia Meteorological Department
which shows that temperature has increased by 2.0° C while rainfall has decreased in the last 35 years
(1963- 1998). An ensemble of all global, regional and local models show that temperature has increased
by 25° C and projects that temperatures will rise 26.71° C by if no mitigation measures are adopted by
2065 give a total rise of 1.71° C which will have a negative impact on agriculture and food security.

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The research results from all climate ensembles further shows that Kazungula experienced extreme
rainfall (above 800 mm) in 1968, 1974 and 1978 and is further projected to experience similar events in
2042, 2048 and 2058. The climate models further shows that the district experienced drought conditions
in 1981, 1991and 1996 and project to experienced similar occurrences in 2045 and 2065 if no mitigation
measures are adopted hence the need to develop adaption measures to safeguard agricultural production
and enhance food security. Agricultural production has already been affected by 40 percent due to
climate change due to unstable rain seasons leading to shorter growing seasons and unpredictable
weather conditions.

The main livestock kept by households were chickens, cattle and goats. Most of the better- off
households own cattle, goats, pigs and chickens well the poor own limited number of goats and
chickens. The poor households mainly grow maize and cannot afford to buy inputs and use recycled
seed while the better- off households grow maize, cotton and cow peas. Further, the better- off
households use fertilizer and animal power to increase agricultural production. Therefore, when climate
change induced hazards interacts with high poverty levels, poor farming practices, human- animal
conflict, pest infestation and high disease incidence due to extreme temperatures it exacerbates the
impacts of climate change on agricultural production and household food security.

The Survey revealed that 58 percent of the households were exposed to climate change. Apart from
people, agricultural systems, water sources and livestock were equally exposed to the adverse effects of
climate change. The Survey established that households were affected differently depending on gender,
assert ownership, age and household size. For example 70 percent of the females were severely
impacted by climate change compared to 40 percent males.

The survey further showed that the youthful households (25-44) were more vulnerable compared to the
aged and young because the elderly had more productive asserts to cope with the effects of climate
change. On the other hand, the survey showed that most of the households with medium household size
of 3 to 8 were more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and climate variability compare to
larger and smaller households. This may be attributed to the fact that larger households are able to cope
with the effects of climate change and climate variability because they have enough labor for farming.

The Survey further showed that 58 percent of the households were assert poor while 42 percent of the
households were assert rich. Majority of the households had poor access to food due to limited access to
food. Though food was readily available on the market, it was quite expensive because people were
unable to purchase the food stocks due to high prices and high poverty levels at household level.

The Survey revealed that in terms of the impacts of climate change on food stability, it was equally
under stress. For example the interviewed households (84 percent) indicated that they had no carryover
stocks. In a normal situation food stocks are expected to reach the next harvest season. However, 96
percent of the households were food insecure in relation to food availability due to low crop yields, lack
of incomes to purchase food and inadequate carryover stocks.

In terms of food utilization, large populations had no access to a balanced diet but were mainly
dependent on cereals like maize and cassava as well as food oils and wild fruits affecting food
utilization and household nutrition.

A linear regression model showed that coeffient for rainfall was 188.04, hence for every unit increase in
rainfall , a 188 unit increase in maize production was predicted holding all other variables were constant.
For every unit in increase in temperature, a -93590.896 decrease in maize production was expected
holding all other variables were constant. This shows that climate change parameters such as
temperature and rainfall have a negative bearing on agriculture and household food security.

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Majority of the households were engaged in emergency and crisis coping strategies such as reducing
number of meals taken per day by both children and adults, sending children to eat from friends and
relatives, reduced expenditure on food and eating less preferred foods as opposed to adaption strategies.

5. Conclusion
Droughts and floods were the main climate induced hazards affecting the people of Kazangula district
and it effected their livelihoods differently depending on their adaptive capacity. 58 percent of the
people were already exposed to the adverse impacts of climate change. The major crops grown in
Kazungula were maize, groundnuts, mixed beans, sweet potatoes and vegetables which are very
sensitive to any abrupt change to the climate system.

Rural households are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change depending on age, gender, sex,
assert wealth, disability and household size. The assert rich were less vulnerable to impacts of climate
change and climate variability compared to the assert poor due to high adaptive capacity.

There is 95 percent confidence that temperature has increased in the last 30 years (1963- 1998) by 2.0o
C and rainfall has decreased by 129 mm. The increased occurrence of floods and dry spells was having
negative effects on agricultural production and food security.

Climate change was significantly affecting the four pillar of food security (availability, access,
utilization and stability). About 50 percent of households have been negatively impacted by the effects
of climate change and climate variability on agricultural production and household food security. More
than 50 percent of the population are food insecure due to the impacts of climate change and climate
variability on food security.

6. The way forward

These results will be disseminated to the relevant stakeholders and decision makers through emails and
bulletins for them to make informed decisions regarding the future climate outlook of Zambia. Most of
the relevant sectors that may find this report beneficial include the Pilot Programme for Climate
Resilience, Ministry of Agriculture, Zambia Meteorological Department Water Resources Management
Authority and the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit. This report important for understanding
risk and for adaptation planning. Risk planning is an important component for disaster preparedness and
mitigation.

In moving forward, there is need to focus on more training on climate change modelling, climate change
projections, international climate change protocols and global climate change models as well as regional
climate change models. These trainings should be organized for in country training as well at
international level to share best practices. Arising from the above conclusions and discussion, the survey
recommends the following:

• Government should invest in long term adaption programmes to help the communities become
more resilient to the adverse impacts of climate change and climate variability,

• The local communities should consider growing draught tolerant crops like cassava, sorghum and
millet,

• The survey recommends for further research on long term adaptation strategies under different
climate change scenarios.

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 IJRDO-Journal of Agriculture and Research ISSN: 2455-7668

• The Government in collaboration with stakeholders and the involvement of the local communities
should invest small dams, water harvesting technologies to promote irrigation agriculture and move
away from rain- fed agriculture,

• Local communities should adopt conservation farming methods like pot holing and the use of
manure to promote soil fertility,

• Government in partnership with local communities especially women to adopt adaptation measures
that are women friendly and should encourage people to replant trees, protect wetlands and discourage
the indiscriminate cutting of trees because of its effects on the rain cycle, and

• Promote alternative livelihoods for the well being of the local communities and promotion of
nutrition and poverty reduction.

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