‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻼﻭﻯ ‪/‬ﺩ‪ .

‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬

‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬

‫ﺍﻻﻧﺤﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ )‪ :(VAR‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ )‪­1970‬‬
‫‪(2003‬‬
‫**‬
‫ﺩ ‪ .‬ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﻤﻼﻭﻯ * ‪/‬ﺩ ‪ .‬ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﻠﺺ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ )‪ (2003- 1970‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻫﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺜﻝ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻱ ﺃﻜﺎﻴﻙ ﻭﺴﺸﻴﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ‪ ،‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻗﻭﺓ‬
‫ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﻋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﻼﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ‪ ،‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﺒﺄﻥ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﻤﻨﺴﺠﻤﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻟﻠﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﺸﻬﺩﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺃﻨﺤﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﺨﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﺘﺤﺘﻝ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫* ﺃﺳﺘﺎﺫ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻙ‪ ٬‬ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ ٬‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ ٬‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻣﺆﺗﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻜﺮﻙ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬
‫** ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﻴﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ٬‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ ٬‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻣﺆﺗﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻜﺮﻙ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬

‫‪125‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪٬‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪2008‬‬

‫ﺘﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻭﺍﻁﻨﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻅﻝ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺭﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﻠﻌﺏ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﺤﻴﻭﻴﺎ ﻭﻫﺎﻤﺎ ﺒﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻝ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻴﻡ ‪ .‬ﻓﻴﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻻﺯﺩﻫﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺵ)‪. (1‬‬
‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﺪﻑ ﻭﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﻨﺒﻊ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻜﻐﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‪ ،‬ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺨﺼﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺎﺼﻴﺔ(‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻘﺩﻤﻪ ﻟﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺽ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﻭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺨﺼﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﺩﻯ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻡ ﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺨﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ )‪ ( 2003- 1970‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺄﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴﻝ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺤﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪ :‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﻣﺤﺪﺩﺍﺗﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺴﺘﺸﻤﻝ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻜﻜﻝ ﺒﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﻜﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﺘﻠﺨﺹ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪­1‬‬
‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻻ ﺘﻤﺜﻝ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻤﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻜﻝ ﺴﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﻔﺭﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﺒﻝ ﺘﻤﺜﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺩﺩ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺭﺒﻌﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻴﻘﻠﻝ ﻤﻥ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪­2‬‬

‫‪126‬‬
 ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻼﻭﻯ ‪/‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻً‪ :‬ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺩﻋﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻘﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺏﺀ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺘﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺭﻯ ﻜﻝ ﻤﻥ ﺸﻭ )ٍ ‪ (Shaw‬ﻭﻤﻴﻜﻨﻭﻥ ) ‪ (Mackinon‬ﺃﻥ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺃﻱ ﻨﻘﺹ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻝ ﻴﻤﺜﻝ ﻋﺎﺌﻘﺎ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﻴﻨﺠﻡ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺁﺜﺎﺭﺍ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻬﺫﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻴﺩﻋﻡ ﻜﻝ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ)‪. (2‬‬
‫) ‪ (Wai‬ﺃﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﹰ ﻫﺎﻤﺎﹰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺭﻯ ﻭﺍﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺘﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﻌﺽ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺠﺩﻭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﻔﺭﺹ ﻭﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭﺓ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻀﻤﻥ ﻟﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺠﺎﻉ ﺩﻴﻭﻨﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫) ‪ (Cameron‬ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫)‪(4‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺭﻯ ﻜﺎﻤﺭﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﻪ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﻋﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‪ ،‬ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺁﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﻭﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺤﻭﻝ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﻅﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺜﺭﺍ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﺜﻝ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻤﻅﺎﻫﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺯ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﺩ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ)‪: (5‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻨﺯﻴﺔ )‪ :( The Keynesian Theory‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺭﻯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪ .‬ﻓﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻜﻝ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪.‬‬

‫‪127‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪٬‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪2008‬‬

‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﻭﻥ )‪ : (The Monetarists‬ﺘﺭﻯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﺎﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺭﻑ‬

‫ﺒﻤﺩﺭﺴﺔ ﺸﻴﻜﺎﻏﻭ ) ‪ ( Chicago School‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﻤﻴﻠﺘﻭﻥ ﻓﺭﻴﺩﻤﺎﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺭﻙ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻟﻪ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻼﺴﻴﻜﻴﺔ )‪ :( The Classical Theory‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺭﻯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻻ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺏ‬
‫"ﺤﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ‪." Monetary Neutrality :‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎً‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺤﻭﻝ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﺴﻤﻴﻥ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫) ‪ :( Blinder and Stiglitz‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫)‪(6‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻠﻴﻨﺩﺭ ﻭﺴﺘﻘﻠﺘﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ )ﻤﻤﺜﻼ ﺒﺎﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ( ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ )ﻤﻤﺜﻼ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ( ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪ ،(1981- 1952‬ﻭﺍﻋﺘﻤﺩﺕ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ‬
‫ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﻠﺼﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺃﺜﺭﺍ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ)‪ : (7‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ )ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻠﻴﺒﻲ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪،(1987- 1970‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻭﻉ ﻜﻭﺏ –‬
‫ﺩﻭﻏﻼﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﻠﺼﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫) ‪ : (Afonso and Aubyn‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫‪ .3‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻓﻭﻨﺴﻭ ﻭﺍﻭﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫)‪(8‬‬

‫ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ )‪- 1990‬‬
‫‪ ( 1997‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺒﺭﺘﻐﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻤﺜﻝ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪.‬‬

‫‪128‬‬
 ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻼﻭﻯ ‪/‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬

‫) ‪ : (Copelman‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫)‪(9‬‬

‫‪ .4‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻜﻭﺒﻠﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻪ ﻟﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺴﻴﻙ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﻠﺼﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫) ‪: (Levine, Ross, Norman‬‬ ‫‪ .5‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻟﻔﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻭﺭﻤﺎﻥ ﻟﻭﻴﺯﺍ‬
‫)‪(10‬‬

‫‪Loayza‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻤﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻤﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ‪ ،‬ﻤﻘﺎﺴﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻭﺒﺎﻷﺼﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫) ‪ : (Hofmann‬ﺒﺤﺜﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫)‪(11‬‬
‫‪ .6‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻫﻭﻓﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺴﺘﺔ ﻋﺸﺭ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪ ( 1995- 1980‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﻠﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫) ‪ :( Garidi‬ﺒﺤﺜﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫)‪(12‬‬
‫‪ .7‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻗﺎﺭﻴﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺨﺯﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻝ ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫)‪ :( Ibrahim‬ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫)‪(13‬‬
‫‪ .8‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺔ ﺒﺴﺘﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻴ‪‬ﻨﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺠﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺯﻴﺎ ﻻ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫) ‪ : (Loayza and Ranciere‬ﺒﻴ‪‬ﻨﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬ ‫)‪(14‬‬
‫‪ .9‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻟﻭﻴﺯﺍ ﻭﺭﺍﻨﺴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭﺓ ‪.‬‬

‫‪129‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪٬‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪2008‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫‪ :‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫‪ .1‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪(15‬‬

‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪ ،(1986- 1968‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻼﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻟﻭﺩﻱ)‪ : (16‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ )‪ ،(1997- 1979‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺨﻁﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻠﺤﻡ)‪ : (17‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻟﻌﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ )‪ ،(2001- 1980‬ﻭﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻨﻭﺡ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺨﺼﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎً‪ :‬ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﻭﺴﻌﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬
‫ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ‪ 45.5‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1970‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 5262.4‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2003‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫‪ .% 15.48‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ )ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﻤﻌﺩﻝ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺴﻨﻭﻱ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ ﻫﻲ ‪ (1990‬ﻓﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ 267.6‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،1970‬ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 3497‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2003‬ﺃﻱ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻝ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺴﻨﻭﻱ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ‬
‫‪ .% 8.1‬ﺇﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤﻝ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺩ‪‬ﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﻨﻴﻥ‬ ‫‪.1‬‬
‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫‪.2‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﻜﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻠﺴﻁﻴﻥ ‪.‬‬

‫‪130‬‬
 ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻼﻭﻯ ‪/‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬

‫ﺭﺍﺑﻌﺎً‪ :‬ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻨﻅﺭﺍ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺭﻀﺕ ﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻨﺎﻭﻟﺕ ﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻁﺭﻕ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺩﻋﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻐﺭﺽ ﺘﻘﻠﻴﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻝ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻫﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ) ‪ (GDP‬ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻤﺜﻝ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ) ‪ (CR‬ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻤﺜﻝ ﻟﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻱ ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺩﺭ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﻤﺜﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻠﺤﻡ)‪ . (18‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ )‪ ( VAR ) Vector (Autoregression‬ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺯﻝ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪Yt = A1 Yt-1 + A2Yt-2 + ……+Ap Yt-p + Єt .......... ( 1‬‬
‫‪Yt = [GDPt‬‬ ‫‪CRt] ′‬‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ CR ، GDP‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻋﺭﻓﺕ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : Ai‬ﺘﻤﺜﻝ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﻭﺃﺒﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ ‪ ،KxK‬ﻭ ‪ K‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪E(Є) = 0‬‬ ‫‪ :Є‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫‪: P‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬
‫‪ : t‬ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻜﺘﺎﺒﺔ ﻜﻝ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﻜﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺨﻁﻴﺔ ﺒﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﺒﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﻝ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﺯﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻫﻭ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻓﻘﻁ ‪.‬‬

‫‪131‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪٬‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪2008‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻠﺤﺼﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﺎﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺭﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ) ‪(RATS‬‬

‫)‪ ( Regression of Time Series Analysis‬ﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻪ ﺘﻡ ﺃﺠﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ)‪ : (19‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻜﺎﻴﻙ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺴﺸﻴﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ ﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻝ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻣﺴﺎً‪ :‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪ - 1‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻜﺎﻴﻙ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺴﺸﻴﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ ‪ :‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺜﻝ ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺤﺩ ﻋﺸﺭﺓ ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻴﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻗﺭﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺜﺎﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺴﺘﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻨﺴﺠﺎﻤﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺍﺨﺘﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﺎﺭﺕ ﻋﺩﺩﺍ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﺒﺎ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻤﺜﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻼﻭﻴﻥ‬
‫)‪(20‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻠﺫﺍﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺎﺭﺍ ﺴﺘﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫)‪(21‬‬

‫ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﺎﻥ ﻭﺒﺎﻫﺎﺭﻭﻤﺸﺎ )‪(Tan and Baharumshah‬‬
‫ﺨﻤﺱ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫)‪(23‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻠﺫﺍﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺎﺭﺍ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻁﻴﺏ ﻭﻤﻼﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻼﻭﻱ ﻭﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫)‪(22‬‬

‫ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺯﻤﻨﻲ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ - 2‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻝ ﻫﻭ ﺃﺤﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻜﺄﻥ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺜﻼ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻜﻼ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻴﺅﺜﺭﺍﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺽ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻻ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﺃﻱ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ‬
‫ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ . F‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ( 1‬ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪- :‬‬

‫ﺠﺩﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(1‬‬

‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ F‬ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ F‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫)ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ(‬ ‫)ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ(‬
‫‪ CR‬ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪2.66‬‬ ‫‪6.478‬‬ ‫‪GDP  CR‬‬
‫‪GDP‬‬

‫‪132‬‬
 ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻼﻭﻯ ‪/‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬

‫‪ GDP‬ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪2.66‬‬ ‫‪18.92‬‬ ‫‪CR  GDP‬‬

‫‪CR‬‬

‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻗﻴﻡ ‪ F‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ) ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺩﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻜﻝ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻵﺨﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 3‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ‪ :‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻀﻴﺤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺘﻪ ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ( 2‬ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(2‬‬

‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬

‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ) ‪:(GDP‬‬

‫‪------------------------------------------------------‬‬
‫‪CR‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬

‫‪133‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪٬‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪2008‬‬

‫­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪85‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪33‬‬ ‫‪67‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪52‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪51‬‬ ‫‪49‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪53‬‬ ‫‪47‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪55‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪56‬‬ ‫‪44‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪56‬‬ ‫‪44‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪57‬‬ ‫‪43‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪57‬‬ ‫‪43‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻼﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺮﻓﻲ )‪:(CR‬‬
‫­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­‬
‫‪CR‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‬
‫­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­‬
‫‪77‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪67‬‬ ‫‪33‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪62‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪63‬‬ ‫‪37‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪63‬‬ ‫‪37‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪64‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­‬

‫ﻭﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻝ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻜﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ %85‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﻪ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ %15‬ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ‪ .‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺼﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ ، %33‬ﺜﻡ ﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺼﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ‬

‫‪134‬‬
 ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻼﻭﻯ ‪/‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬

‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ % 57‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻴﺩﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻴﺩﻋﻡ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼﻝ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻜﻭﺒﻠﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫)‪(24‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺴﻴﻜﻲ ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻤﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻠﺤﻡ‬
‫)‪(25‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻨﻭﺡ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺨﺼﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻼﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺒﻴﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺃﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬
‫‪ % 77‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ % 23‬ﻓﻘﻁ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﻟﻠﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪% 33‬‬
‫ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻰ ‪ %38‬ﺨﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻭﻟﺘﺼﻝ ﺃﻋﻼﻫﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ %40‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺴﺔ ﺜﻡ ﺘﺒﺩﺃ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺫﻜﺭ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﻟﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﻻ ﺜﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺘﺸﻭﻻﺴﻜﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻤﻁﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ،(2‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺩﻋﻡ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺒﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 4‬ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻝ ‪ :‬ﺘﻌﻤﻝ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺁﺨﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻝ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .( 1‬ﻓﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻝ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻝ ﻟﻜﻝ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬

‫‪135‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪٬‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪2008‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻨﻭﺡ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻝ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻱ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺎ ﻭﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺜﻼﺙ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺜﻡ ﻴﺒﺩﺃ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻀﺎﺅﻝ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺩﻋﻡ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﺤﻭﻝ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻤﺜﻼ ﺠﻴﺩﺍ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺗﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪:‬‬

‫‪136‬‬
 ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻼﻭﻯ ‪/‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬

‫ﺍﻓﺘﺭﻀﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻤﺜﻼﹰ ﺒﺎﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻡ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻤﺜﻼ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﻜﺄﺤﺩ ﺃﺸﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴﻝ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺅﻴﺩﺓ ﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺘﻔﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺒﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻟﺼﺎﻟﺢ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ؛ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻭﺽ ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺒﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴﻝ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﺒﺩﻻﹰ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫*‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺤﻖ‬

‫* ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺭﺠﻭﻉ ﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺤﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﻊ‬
‫‪Johnston, Jack and John DiNardo (1997), Econometric Methods, fourth‬ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻫﻭ‬
‫‪edition, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc .‬‬

‫‪137‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪٬‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪2008‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ (‪ :‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺔ )‪: (VAR: Vector Autoregression Model‬‬
‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺌﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻝ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻁﺒﻊ ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ )‪( Exogenous Variables‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻤﻝ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫) ‪ ، (Endogenous Variables‬ﻭ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻜﺘﺎﺒﺔ ﻜﻝ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﻜﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺨﻁﻴﺔ ﺒﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﺒﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪Yt = A1 Yt-1 + A2Yt-2 + ……+Ap Yt-p + Єt‬‬
‫‪Yt = [GDPt‬‬ ‫‪CRt] ′‬‬ ‫ﺤﻴﺙ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ CR ، GDP‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻋﺭﻓﺕ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺘﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : Ai‬ﺘﻤﺜﻝ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﻭﺃﺒﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ ‪ ،KxK‬ﻭ ‪ K‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪.‬‬
‫‪E(Є) = 0‬‬ ‫‪ :Є‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫‪: P‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬
‫‪ : t‬ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻭﻜﻝ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻫﻭ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ - 1‬ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻔﺎﻋﻝ ﻤﻊ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ‪ ‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺤﺴﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﻓﻘﺎﹰ ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴـﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻫﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ - 2‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ )‪ ،(Lags‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﻓﻘﺎﹰ ﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺃﻜﺎﻴﻙ )‪(Akaike‬‬
‫ﻭﺸﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ)‪ ،(Schwartz‬ﻭﻫﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺸﻴﻭﻋﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﺃﺤﻴﺎﻨﺎﹰ ﻴﺒﺎﻟﻐﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ VAR‬ﻋﻥ ﻏﻴﺭﻩ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺃﻗﻝ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻨﺼﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻴﻘﺘﻨﻌﻭﻥ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻻ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺒﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜﻝ ﺍﻟﺩﻗﻴﻕ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ (‪ :‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ) ‪:(Selection the Lag Length‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻜﺎﻴﻙ ) ‪ (Akaike‬ﻭﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺸﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ ) ‪ (Schwartz‬ﻫﻤﺎ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺸﻴﻭﻋﺎﹰ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻜﻼﻫﻤﺎ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟـ )‪ .( L: Likelihood Ratio‬ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﺃﻗﻝ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻟﻜﻝ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻴﻥ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻎ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪138‬‬
 ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻼﻭﻯ ‪/‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﻤﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬

‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺃﻜﺎﻴﻙ )‪ :( Akaike Information Criterion: AIC‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫| ‪L = Constant + n/2 Log| Ω-1‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ‪ : n‬ﺘﻤﺜﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫‪ :‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻟﻠﺒﻭﺍﻗﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫‪Ω‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﻭﻴﺨﻀﻊ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻜﺎﻱ ﺘﺭﺒﻴﻊ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺴﺸﻴﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ )‪ :( Schwartz's Criterion : SBC‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪- :‬‬
‫‪-1‬‬
‫)‪L = SBC(m) = n Log |Ω | + m Log (n‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ‪ : n‬ﺘﻤﺜﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫‪ : Ω‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻟﻠﺒﻭﺍﻗﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﺔ ﻭﻴﺨﻀﻊ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻜﺎﻱ ﺘﺭﺒﻴﻊ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : m‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ (‪ :‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ )‪ :( Granger Causality Test‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ . F‬ﻓﻌﻨﺩ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ‪ X‬ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ‪،Z‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ "ﺃﻥ ‪ X‬ﻻ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ‪ ." Z‬ﻭﺭﻓﺽ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ‪ X‬ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ‪ . Z‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼﹰ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ )‪ ( Lags‬ﻫﻭ )‪ ( K‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻴﺠﺏ ﻋﻤﻝ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪-‬ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ )‪ ( Unrestricted Regression‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺸﻤﻝ ‪ Zt‬ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻭﻗﻴﻤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻗﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ‪ X‬ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪Zt= αi Zt-i +  βi Xt-i + U1t …….. (1‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻗﻴﻡ ﺭﻤﺯ ‪ ‬ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪ 1‬ﻭ ‪. k‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ)‪ ( Restricted Regression‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻻ ﻴﺤﺘﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻡ ‪ X‬ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ( 1‬ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ‪B1 = B2 = ….=Bk :‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻬﺫﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ‪:‬‬
‫)‪Zt = αi Zt-i + U2t …................(2‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻗﻴﻡ ﺭﻤﺯ ‪ ‬ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ‪ 1‬ﻭ ‪.k‬‬
‫‪:‬‬ ‫ﺜﻡ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺤﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ F‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪139‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪٬‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪2008‬‬

‫‪(RSSr-RSSur) /q‬‬
‫‪Fc = -----------------------‬‬
‫)‪RSSur / (n-m‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ : q‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﺩﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : n‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : m‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : RSSur‬ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺍﻗﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : RSSr‬ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺍﻗﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﻡ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ F‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ F‬ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ F‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪ F‬ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ‬
‫‪ X‬ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ‪ ،Z‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟـ ‪ X‬ﻟﻬﺎ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺘﻨﺒﺅﻴﺔ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ‪ Z‬ﻋﻨﺩ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻘﻴﻡ ‪ Z‬ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌﺎ (‪ :‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ )‪ :(Variance Decomposition‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠﻝ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻟﻜﻝ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ)‪ ،(VAR‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻷﺜﺭ ﻜﻝ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ) ‪ ( Shock‬ﻓﻲ ﻜﻝ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺘﺭﺍﺒﻁ ﻤﺘﺴﻠﺴﻝ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻻ ﻴﻤﻨﻊ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻤﻥ ) ‪ ( Contemporaneous‬ﻟﻸﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺤﻝ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺘﺸﻭﻻﺴﻜﻲ)‪ ( Cholaski Decomposition‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜﻝ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺒﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﺨﺫ‬
‫ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺨﺎﻤﺴﺎ(‪ - :‬ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻝ )‪ :(Impulse Response Function‬ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺔ )‪ ( Shocks‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻜﻝ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻷﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬
‫)‪1‬‬ ‫‪Howard, J Sherman and David X. Kolk, “Business Cycles and‬‬
‫‪Forecasting”, Harper Collins, 1996.‬‬

‫‪140‬‬
 ‫ ﺃﺣﻤﺪ‬.‫ﺩ‬/ ‫ ﺃﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻼﻭﻯ‬.‫ﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬

2) Gilis, M and etal., “Economic of Development”, Internet,

http://www.norton.co.ny 1983
http://www.norton.co.ny.,
3) Wai, U. Tun, “Economic Essays on Developing Countries”,
Washington, D.C., September, 1979.
4) Cameron, Rando, “Banking and Economic Development: Some
Lessons of History”, Oxford University Press, London, 1972.
‫ "ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻝ ﺴﻼﺴﻝ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬،‫ ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﻭ ﺭﺸﺎ ﻋﺒﺩﺍﷲ ﺩﻴﺎﺕ‬،‫ﻤﻼﻭﻱ‬ (5
،(31) ‫ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‬،‫ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‬،(‫ ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ) ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬،"‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
. 404- 394 ‫ ﺹ ﺹ‬،2004 ،‫ ﺘﻤﻭﺯ‬،(2) ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬
6) Blinder, Alans and Josephe Stiglitz, “Money, Credit, Constraints, and
Economic Activity”, American Economic Review, No.73, May, 1983.
‫ ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺒﺤﻭﺙ‬،"‫ "ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻠﻴﺒﻲ‬،‫ ﻋﺒﺩﺍﷲ‬،‫ﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‬ (7
. ‫ ﺃ‬1989 ،‫ ﻤﺼﺭ‬،‫ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬،(1) ‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬،(1) ‫ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ‬،‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬
8) Afonso, Antonio and Miguelst Aubyn, “Crdit Rationing and Monetary
Transmission, Evidence for Portugal”, Internet,
http://www.bis.org/pub1/plcy03.htm., 1998.
http://www.bis.org/pub1/plcy03.htm
9) Copelman, Martina, “Financial Structure and Economic Activity in
Mexico”, Center of Analysis and Economic Research, Internet,
http://www.ITAM.com., 2000.
http://www.ITAM.com
10) Levine, Ross, and Norman Loayza, "Financial Intermediation and
Growth: Causality and Causes", Journal of Monetary Economics, 46, 2000,
PP 31-77.
11) Hofmann, Boris, “The Determinants of Private Sector Credit in
Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter”, BIS Working Papers,
No.108, 2001.
12) Garidi, Christy H., "The Relationship between Credit Expansion,
Inactive Balances, and the Capital Stock", Internet,
http://www.newschool.edu/cepa/publications/workingpapers/archive/cepa2004
03.pdf., 2004.
13) Ibrahim, Mansor H., "Stock Prices and Bank Loan Dynamics in a
Developing Country: The Case of Malaysia", Journal of Applied Economics,
Vol. 1X, No. 1, May, 2006, PP 71-89.

141
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪ ٬‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪٬‬ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ ‪2008‬‬

‫)‪14‬‬ ‫‪Loayza, Norman V. And Romain Ranciere, "Financial Development,‬‬

‫‪Financial Fragility, and Growth", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,‬‬
‫‪Vol. 38, No. 4, June, 2006, PP 1051-1076.‬‬
‫ﺸﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﺒﺩﺍﷲ‪ " ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ"‪ ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺃﺒﺤﺎﺙ‬ ‫‪(15‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻴﺭﻤﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ )‪ ،(5‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ )‪ ، (3‬ﺍﺭﺒﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ 1989 ،‬ﺏ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻟﻭﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺒﺴﺎﻡ‪" ،‬ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪- 1979‬‬ ‫‪(16‬‬
‫‪ ،"(1997‬ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺁﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺭﻕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪.2001 ،‬‬
‫ﻤﻠﺤﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻓﻀﻝ‪" ،‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ"‪ ،‬ﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪(17‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ )‪ ،(12‬ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ )‪ ،(6‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪. 2002،‬‬
‫ﻤﻠﺤﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻓﻀﻝ‪ ،2002 ،‬ﻤﺭﺠﻊ ﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪(18‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻭ‪‬ﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺤﻕ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪(19‬‬
‫ﻋﻼﻭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﺩﻱ‪" ،‬ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬ ‫‪(20‬‬
‫)‪ ،"(1996- 1973‬ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪.1998 ،‬‬
‫)‪21‬‬ ‫‪Tan, Hui Boon and Ahmad Zubeidi Baharumshah, “ The Dynamic‬‬
‫‪Causal Chain of Money, Output, Interest Rate and Prices in Malaysia:‬‬
‫‪Evidence Based on Vector Error-Correction Modeling Analysis”,‬‬
‫‪International Economic Journal, Vol. (13), No. (1), 1999.‬‬
‫ﻤﻼﻭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﺍﺒﺭﺍﻫﻴﻡ ﻭ ﺭﺸﺎ ﻋﺒﺩﺍﷲ ﺩﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،2004 ،‬ﻤﺭﺠﻊ ﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪(22‬‬
‫)‪23‬‬ ‫‪Al-Tayeb, Saud Mousa and Ahmad Ibrahim Malawi, “The‬‬
‫‪Determinants of the Jordanian Real Exchange Rate against the U.S. Dollar: A‬‬
‫‪Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model”, Al-Manarah, Al-al-Bayt University,‬‬
‫‪Jordan, Vol. (III), No. (1), April, 2002, PP 71-88.‬‬
‫)‪24‬‬ ‫‪Copelman, Martina, 2002, op.cit.‬‬
‫ﻤﻠﺤﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻓﻀﻝ‪ ،2002 ،‬ﻤﺭﺠﻊ ﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪(25‬‬
‫ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺄﺨﻭﺫﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪(26‬‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﺩﺍﺌﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪142‬‬