CBMEC 2

FORECASTING

ACTIVITY 1

Below is the table that shows the Second Year ENROLLMENT of the Great Plebeian College CBE
DEPARTMENT during the 2nd semesters of the past ten (10) Academic years.

AY Secondary Enrollees
2013-2014 200
2014-2015 220
2015-2016 250
2016-2017 270
2017-2018 290
2018-2019 310
2019-2020 350
2020-2021 370
2021-2022 400
2022-2023 410
2023-2024 425

You are the Dean of the The Great Plebeian College. You are interested to know the forecast of
freshmen enrollment for the next academic year (AY 2023-2024), in order to plan ahead the
necessary resources: faculty, classroom, library holdings, physical facilities, student services,
furniture and fixtures, etc.).

These are the requirements:

1. Calculate the forecast using 4 forecasting techniques/methodologies/models namely:
Naïve Model, Unweighted and Weighted Moving Averages
2. For each of these models, calculate the 3 forecast errors namely: Mean Absolute
Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute
3. Percentage Error (MAPE), and the Mean Squared Error (MSE).
For the two Moving Averages models, use n = 3 academic years.

1. NAIVE MODEL

Secondary
AY Ft et /e/ %e Sq e
Enrollees
2013-2014 200
2014-2015 220
2015-2016 250
2016-2017 270
2017-2018 290
2018-2019 310
2019-2020 350
2020-2021 370
2021-2022 400
2022-2023 410
2023-2024 425

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) =

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) =

Mean Squared Error (MSE) =

2. UNWEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL

AY Secondary Ft Solution for 3-month moving average

 Enrollees
2013-2014 200
2014-2015 220
2015-2016 250
2016-2017 270
2017-2018 290
2018-2019 310
2019-2020 350
2020-2021 370
2021-2022 400
2022-2023 410
2023-2024 425

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) =

3. WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE

Secondary
AY Ft Solution for 3-month moving average
Enrollees
2013-2014 200
2014-2015 220
2015-2016 250
2016-2017 270
2017-2018 290
2018-2019 310
2019-2020 350
2020-2021 370
2021-2022 400
2022-2023 410
2023-2024 425

4. Linear Regression:

y x x2 xy
(1)2013-2014 200
(2)2014-2015 220
(3)2015-2016 250
(4)2016-2017 270
(5)2017-2018 290
∑y= ∑x= ∑ x2= ∑xy=

X= ∑x
n

b= ∑xy-nxy
∑ x2-nx2

A= y-bx