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(Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia) Telecommunication Infrastructure Industry Update PDF
(Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia) Telecommunication Infrastructure Industry Update PDF
There's an interesting point from ISAT's guidance during the recent analyst meeting: the core network
consolidation process with Tri for the areas outside of Java is expected to be completed before the end of
the year, and the consolidation for the network on the Java island will begin next year.
This could pose a further threat to TOWR and TBIG, in our view, as ISAT's contribution to revenue in 1H23
reached 38.5% and 29.5% respectively. However, on the other hand, it provides a risk limitation in terms of
limited downside for MTEL, which only receives a 19.5% revenue contribution from ISAT.
Regarding the introduction of Starlink technology to Indonesia, even though it has managed to enter
neighboring countries like Malaysia and the Philippines without user segment restrictions, the business
model for Starlink in Indonesia seems to follow what has already been implemented in Australia since July
2023, where it partners with a local telecommunications provider, Telstra.
Therefore, despite the potential threat posed by Starlink technology to players in the tower, fiber optic, and
telecommunications industry in general, with the limitations on expansion through the state-owned
enterprise subsidiary Telkomsat, and the operational areas restricted primarily to remote regions, we see
that beyond the relatively small potential threats to existing players, this product could potentially become
an accelerator for economic growth in the rural village, agricultural, and mining areas across the country.
Recommendation Maintaining an Overweight rating due to the potential synergy with the latest technological
developments in satellite devices
We still maintain an Overweight recommendation for the Telecommunication Infrastructure sector with
MTEL as our top pick.
The company is more competitive than TOWR and TBIG, in our view, due to its more robust 1H23 EBITDA
growth, reaching 16.7% YoY compared to TOWR's +7.5% and TBIG's -1.5% YoY growth, respectively.
This demonstrates MTEL's business resilience amidst the telecommunications industry consolidation. The
significant EBITDA growth of MTEL in 1H23 is supported by the increase in the number of tenants by 23.2%
YoY (including reseller), in contrast to TOWR's -1.7% and TBIG's +2.8% YoY growth in this aspect.
MTEL’s assets are currently valued at a modest rate of only IDR2.08bn for its 23F EV/tower. This represents a
discount of over 35% and 36% compared to TOWR’s and TBIG’s valuations, respectively. We also favor MTEL
due to its significantly lower net gearing of only 46.3% vs. TOWR and TBIG of 266.2% and 227.3%,
respectively.
In the future, we see the potential for synergy among tower networks, fiber optics, and satellite devices to
enhance overall network quality, especially if this low-earth orbit satellite technology can also be utilized by
other players in the industry.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
September 1, 2023 Telecommunication Infrastructure
C O N T E N T S
Industry update 3
Starlink’s technology as a network growth accelerator in rural areas 3
A brief explanation of Starlink’s technology 3
MTEL’s undemanding valuation of assets despite relatively healthier balance sheet 5
Dayamitra Telekomunikasi 6
MTEL’s important data exhibits 7
Industry update
Recently, Telkomsat has introduced several Starlink-based products, including VSAT Star and
MangoStar, offering speeds of up to 500 Mbps and latency equivalent to fiber optic
connections. These solutions are essential for SMEs, companies, and government entities that
require unlimited and fast internet connectivity, especially in remote areas.
While Starlink has managed to enter neighboring countries like Malaysia and the Philippines
without user segment restrictions, the business model for Starlink in Indonesia seems to be
following a similar approach as it has in Australia since July 2023, where it partners with local
telecommunications providers such as Telstra.
Therefore, despite the fact that Starlink's technology could be perceived as a threat to existing
players in the tower, fiber optic, and telecommunications industries, the expansion is limited
through state-owned enterprise subsidiaries and operational areas restricted to remote
regions. This means that beyond the relatively small potential threats to existing players, we
see this product as a potential accelerator for economic growth in several rural village,
plantation, and mining areas across the country.
Most satellite internet services rely on single geostationary satellites orbiting the planet at a
distance of 35,786 km. Consequently, the round-trip data time between users and these
satellites, known as latency, is high, making it nearly impossible to support activities such as
streaming, online gaming, and video calls that require high data rates. In contrast, Starlink
consists of a constellation of thousands of satellites orbiting the planet much closer, at
around 550 km, providing global coverage. Thanks to their low orbit, Starlink satellites
achieve significantly lower latency—only around 25 ms compared to the usual 600+ ms for
traditional satellite inter0net.
Regarding its ground receiver antenna, it is self-orienting and can establish a connection
within minutes, as long as it has a clear view of the sky. Despite being in close proximity to
every SpaceX rocket launch, it is claimed to withstand extreme cold, heat, hail, sleet, heavy
rain, gale force winds, and even rocket engine exhaust, showcasing proven durability.
Starlink is backed by SpaceX, a company with regular access to space. Being a leading
provider of launch services, SpaceX is the sole satellite operator capable of launching its own
satellites as needed. With frequent and cost-effective launches, Starlink satellites continually
benefit from the latest technology updates.
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
We also favor MTEL due to its significantly lower net gearing of only 46.3% vs. TOWR and TBIG
of 266.2% and 227.3%, respectively.
Figure 5. MTEL’s fwd EV/EBITDA band Figure 6. TOWR’s fwd EV/EBITDA band Figure 7. TBIG’s fwd EV/EBITDA band
9 13
7 11
5 9
3 7
8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 1/19 1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23
Source: IDX, Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Source: IDX, Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Source: IDX, Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas
Indonesia Research Indonesia Research Indonesia Research
Figure 8. MTEL’s revenue from tenants Figure 9. TOWR’s revenue from tenants Figure 10. TBIG’s revenue from tenants
as of 1H23 as of 1H23 as of 1H23
Source: IDX, Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Source: IDX, Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Source: IDX, Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas
Indonesia Research Indonesia Research Indonesia Research
Dayamitra Telekomunikasi
Dayamitra Telekomunikasi
Trading Buy
(MTEL IJ) (Maintain)
Recommendation Maintaining a Trading Buy recommendation due to its lower exposure to the potential negative impact
of ISAT's network consolidation
• Looking ahead, due to its reduced exposure (relative to its peers) to the potential negative impact from
ISAT's network consolidation rollout in Java next year, we project that MTEL's revenue and EBITDA for 23F
can still grow by 7.9% and 10.9%, respectively, reaching IDR8.3tr and IDR6.8tr.
• Additionally, we favor the company for its strong presence in the outer Java area, with 58% of its total tower
assets located in the aforementioned region.
• As a result, we have decided to maintain our Trading Buy recommendation for MTEL, with a slightly higher
TP of IDR890 due to a slightly higher adjustment we made to its 23F net profit figure. Our latest TP is
implying 13.3x/12.1x of its 23F/24F EV/EBITDA ratio, reflecting +1.25SD from its average EV/EBITDA in the
past 3 years.
Key data
150
50
(D-1yr=100)
(D-1yr=100) JCI
JCI PTBA
MTEL Share Price (8/31/2023, IDR) 750 Market Cap (IDRbn) 62,637
115
Consensus EBITDA (23F, IDRbn) 6,964 Shares Outstanding (mn) 83,515
100 EBITDA MASI vs. consensus (23F, %) -2.4 Free Float (%) 15.3
EBITDA Growth (23F, %) 10.9 Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 0.5
85
EV/EBITDA (23F, x) 11.5 52-Week Low (IDR) 620
70 Industry EV/EBITDA median (23F, x) 8.1 52-Week High (IDR) 805
8/22 10/22 12/22 2/23 4/23 6/23 8/23
Benchmark EV/EBITDA (23F, x) 12.0
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
September 1, 2023 Telecommunication Infrastructure
Figure 11. MTEL’s revenue and number of tenants Figure 12. MTEL’s revenue and rental rate
Revenue (IDRbn, L) Number of tenants (Units, R) Revenue (IDRbn, L) Rental rate (IDRmn, R)
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 13. MTEL’s EBITDA and EBITDA margin Figure 14. MTEL’s EBITDA and rental rate
EBITDA (IDRbn, L) EBITDA margin (%, R) EBITDA (IDRbn, L) Rental rate (IDRmn, R)
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Sources: Company data, IDX, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates
Recent financial and Connectivity business supported overall performance despite being sluggish in quarterly basis
operational
• In 2Q23, TOWR's revenue and EBITDA experienced slight growth of 1.6% and 1.5% QoQ, reaching IDR2.9tr
performances
and IDR2.5tr, respectively. This growth followed relatively sluggish performance in its Wireline, VSAT, and
other businesses, which we attribute to the effect of a relatively high base in 1Q23. The contribution of this
business segment to TOWR's consolidated profit after tax declined to only 25.7% in 2Q23 from the 33.7%
recorded in 1Q23.
• Cumulatively, in 1H23, TOWR's revenue and EBITDA still managed to grow by 8.7% and 7.5% YoY,
amounting to IDR5.8tr and IDR4.9tr, respectively. This growth was due to the significantly low base in 1H22,
particularly in its Connectivity business (Wireline, VSAT, and others).
• Despite a 1.7% YoY decrease in the number of tenants in its Tower Rental business to 53,771, TOWR's Fiber-
to-the-tower (FTTH) assets increased significantly by 80.9% YoY to 172,600 km, attributed to several
aggressive inorganic expansion initiatives.
• Revenue from ISAT contributed 38.5% to its consolidated figures, followed by EXCL (30.3%), Telkomsel
(12.7%), and others (18.5%).
• TOWR's 1H23 revenue and EBITDA account for 48.3% and 47.5% of our previously projected figures for its
FY23. Therefore, these results are considered relatively in-line.
Recommendation Maintaining a Trading Buy recommendation on the back of potential robust growth continuation in its
Connectivity business
• Looking ahead, considering the significantly low base in FY22 for its Connectivity business, we project that
23F revenue and EBITDA can still grow by 4.2% and 2.2%, reaching IDR11.5tr and IDR9.7tr, respectively.
• As a result, we have decided to maintain the Trading Buy recommendation for TOWR, with a slightly higher
TP of IDR1,200 due to the potential robust growth continuation in its Connectivity business, which can
compensate for the possible lower contribution from its Tower Rental business due to ISAT's network
consolidation rollout in Java.
• Our latest TP implies a 10.8x/10.1x EV/EBITDA ratio for its 23F/24F, which is equivalent to its historical
average over the past 5 years.
Key data
(D-1yr=100)
130
80
(D-1yr=100) JCI
JCI PTBA
TOWR Share Price (8/31/2023, IDR) 1,030 Market Cap (IDRbn) 52,545
115
Consensus EBITDA (23F, IDRbn) 9,963 Shares Outstanding (mn) 51,015
100 EBITDA MASI vs. consensus (23F, %) -2.4 Free Float (%) 38.2
EBITDA Growth (23F, %) 2.2 Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 0.3
85
EV/EBITDA (23F, x) 9.9 52-Week Low (IDR) 885
70 Industry EV/EBITDA median (23F, x) 8.1 52-Week High (IDR) 1,295
8/22 10/22 12/22 2/23 4/23 6/23 8/23
Benchmark EV/EBITDA (23F, x) 10.7
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
September 1, 2023 Telecommunication Infrastructure
Figure 15. TOWR’s revenue & number of tenants Figure 16. TOWR’s revenue & rental rate
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 17. TOWR’s EBITDA & EBITDA margin Figure 18. TOWR’s EBITDA & rental rate
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Growth (%) 12/21 12/22 12/23F 12/24F Payables 1,587 862 778 770
Revenue 16.0 27.8 4.2 6.3 Loans & lease liabs 16,794 9,564 11,760 11,642
EBITDA 16.1 28.0 2.2 6.6 Others 3,500 4,020 4,398 4,354
Operating profit 17.1 29.3 (0.1) 7.1 Total Current Liabilities 21,880 14,446 16,936 16,766
Net profit 20.9 0.4 (10.1) 7.7 Loans & lease liabs 30,191 35,409 32,370 32,046
Others 1,695 1,338 1,421 1,407
Margins (%) 12/21 12/22 12/23F 12/24F Total Non-current Liabilities 31,886 36,747 33,791 33,453
Gross profit 72.9 73.6 71.4 71.8 Total Liabilities 53,767 51,193 50,727 50,219
EBITDA 86.1 86.2 84.6 84.9 Net debt (cash) 42,236 44,664 43,727 43,322
Operating Profit 64.6 65.3 62.6 63.1
Net profit 39.7 31.2 26.9 27.2 Issued & fully paid capital 510 510 510 510
Additional paid-in capital 21 21 21 21
Relative valuation 12/21 12/22 12/23F 12/24F Other equity (894) (766) (741) (739)
EV/Tower (IDRbn) 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 Retained earnings
EV/Tenant (IDRbn) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 App 1 1 1 1
Unapp 12,393 14,635 16,565 18,840
Net equity attributable to:
Owners 12,031 14,401 16,357 18,634
Cash Flows (IDRbn) 12/21 12/22 12/23F 12/24F NC interest 31 32 70 81
Chg in net working capital 13,565 (8,127) 2,515 (203) Total Equity 12,062 14,432 16,427 18,714
Net profit 3,427 3,442 3,094 3,331 Total Liabilities & Equity 65,829 65,625 67,154 68,934
Net CF from Operation 16,992 (4,685) 5,609 3,129
Chg in nc assets (27,183) (3,543) (1,459) (1,783) Financial Ratios 12/21 12/22 12/23F 12/24F
Net CF from Investment (27,183) (3,543) (1,459) (1,783) Current ratio (%) 33.8 25.3 22.0 22.2
Chg in nc liabs 15,046 4,860 (2,956) (338) Quick ratio (%) 31.7 20.2 17.4 17.5
Chg in Equity (150) 129 64 12 Net debt to assets (%) 64.2 68.1 65.1 62.8
Dividend (1,399) (1,200) (1,163) (1,056) Net debt to equity (%) 351.1 310.2 267.3 232.5
Others (0) (0) (0) (0) ROE (%) 28.5 23.9 18.9 17.9
Net CF from Financing 13,497 3,789 (4,055) (1,382) ROA (%) 5.2 5.2 4.6 4.8
Net Cash Flows 3,306 (4,440) 94 (36) EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 10.2 9.9 9.2
Cash beginning balance 1,443 4,748 309 403 P/E ratio (x) 15.0 14.9 16.6 15.4
Cash ending balance 4,748 309 403 366 P/B ratio (x) 4.4 3.6 3.2 2.8
Sources: Company data, IDX, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates
Recent financial and Robust growth in Fiber Optic despite sluggish addition of new tenancy due to industry network
operational consolidation
performances
• In 2Q23, TBIG's revenue and EBITDA experienced a slight growth of 2.7% and 3.9% QoQ, reaching IDR1.7tr
and IDR1.4tr, respectively. This growth followed a 1% QoQ increase in the total number of tenants in its
tower and DAS network, reaching 41,428.
• Cumulatively in 1H23, TBIG's revenue and EBITDA experienced a slight decline of 0.7% and 1.5% YoY,
totaling IDR3.3tr and IDR2.8tr, respectively. This decline was attributed to a 3.4% YoY decrease in the
average rental rate, despite a 2.8% YoY increase in the total number of tenants in its tower and DAS network.
The company attributed this sluggish growth in new tenancy to the non-renewal of several contract from
ISAT.
• The revenue contribution from its fiber optic business increased to 4.1%, up from only 0.4% in 1H22.
• Revenue from ISAT contributed 29.5% to its consolidated figures, while Telkomsel contributed 34.5%. This
was followed by EXCL (17.2%), FREN & others (14.6%), and the fiber optic segment (4.1%). Rental revenue
generated from ISAT experienced a 17.6% YoY slump due to the recent network consolidation following
the merger with Hutchison.
• TBIG's revenue and EBITDA in 1H23 reflect 47.6% and 47.5% of the run rate projected in our previous figures
for its FY23. Thus, these results are considered relatively in-line with our projections.
Recommendation Maintaining a Trading Buy recommendation based on the potential robust growth continuation in its
Fiber Optic business.
• Looking ahead, considering the potential continuation of robust growth in the Fiber Optic business, we
project that the revenue and EBITDA for 23F can still experience slight growth of 1.5% and 2.4%,
respectively, reaching IDR6.6tr and IDR5.8tr.
• Therefore, we have decided to maintain the Trading Buy recommendation for TBIG, with a slightly lower
TP of IDR2,400 due to a minor downward revision in our projection for its 23F EBITDA figure.
• Our latest TP implies a 14.0x/13.8x EV/EBITDA ratio for its 23F/24F, which is equivalent to its historical
average over the past 5 years.
Key data
130
80
(D-1yr=100)
(D-1yr=100) JCI
JCI PTBA
TBIG
Share Price (8/31/2023, IDR) 2,100 Market Cap (IDRbn) 47,580
120 Consensus EBITDA (23F, IDRbn) 5,766 Shares Outstanding (mn) 5,645
105 EBITDA MASI vs. consensus (23F, %) 0.6 Free Float (%) 24.9
90 EBITDA Growth (23F, %) 2.4 Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 0.6
75 EV/EBITDA (23F, x) 12.9 52-Week Low (IDR) 1,780
60
Industry EV/EBITDA median (23F, x) 8.1 52-Week High (IDR) 2,950
8/22 10/22 12/22 2/23 4/23 6/23 8/23 Benchmark EV/EBITDA (23F, x) 14.0
Figure 19. TBIG’s revenue & total number of site Figure 20. TBIG’s revenue & rental rate
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 21. TBIG’s EBITDA & EBITDA margin Figure 22. TBIG’s EBITDA & rental rate
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
APPENDIX 1
1,300 3,000
800
1,100 2,500
700
900 2,000
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term
material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future
earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or
more of the subject company's shares outstanding.
Analyst Certification
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible
for this report. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in
the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia,
the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional
equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason
to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers
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