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SSRN Id1413087
SSRN Id1413087
∗
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‡
Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, University College London, Alexandra House, 17 Queen Square,
London WC1N 3AR, UK and Swiss Finance Institute, University of Lugano, via Buffi 13, 6900 Lugano, Switzerland,
email: shane@vetta.org.
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Dynamic Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing with Narrow
Framing and Probability Weighting
Abstract
This paper shows that the framework proposed by Barberis and Huang (2009) to incor-
porate narrow framing and loss aversion into dynamic models of portfolio choice and asset
pricing can be extended to also account for probability weighting and for a value function that
is convex on losses and concave on gains. We show that the addition of probability weight-
ing and a convex-concave value function reinforces previous applications of narrow framing
and cumulative prospect theory to understanding the stock market non-participation puzzle
and the equity premium puzzle. Moreover, we show that a convex-concave value function
generates new wealth effects that are consistent with empirical observations on stock market
participation.
Key words: Narrow framing, cumulative prospect theory, probability weighting function,
negative skewness, dynamic programming.
JEL classification: D1, D8, G11, G12.
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1 Introduction
Experimental studies on decision making under risk have described several departures of individual
choice behavior from the principles defining expected utility theory (EUT). There is a growing
consensus that cumulative prospect theory by Tversky and Kahneman (1992) is superior to EUT
as a descriptive model of preferences. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) distinguishes two phases:
framing and valuation. Framing is the way the decision problem is structured and organized, while
valuation is the process by which framed prospects are ranked. Valuation occurs using a reference-
dependent, kinked (loss aversion) and convex-concave value function in addition to inverse-S shaped
Recently, Barberis and Huang (2009) propose a new framework for dynamic portfolio choice
and asset pricing that incorporates narrow framing into the utility specification.1 Narrow framing
refers to the observation in a experimental setting that people tend to evaluate risks in isolation,
independently from other risks they face (see Tversky and Kahneman 1981). Barberis and Huang
(2009, Page 1559) state that utility on narrowly framed assets “should be modeled as closely as
possible on Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory.” However, for the sake of analyti-
cal tractability, Barberis and Huang (2009) only consider one ingredient of (cumulative) prospect
theory – loss aversion – and assume neither probability weighting nor a convex-concave function.
1
In this paper we refer to Barberis and Huang (2009) as they formally analyzed the portfolio selection and
asset pricing problems, with an explicit derivation of optimal portfolios and a characterization of equilibrium prices.
Applications of narrow framing already appeared in Barberis, Huang, and Thaler (2006) and Barberis and Huang
(2008a).
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Barberis and Huang (2009) apply their model to the consumption-portfolio problem. In this con-
text, when adding a new stock to the portfolio, the investor’s utility depends not only on how the
stock’s return impacts the distribution of the investor’s overall wealth, but also on the distribution
of the stock alone, which, for some reason, is narrowly framed. Barberis and Huang (2009) find
that “for a wide range of preference parameterizations, the narrow framer is less likely to buy a
given stock than is an investor who maximizes a standard utility function defined over wealth or
consumption.” It seems that narrow framing can help to explain several observed features of real
portfolios, most importantly, the stock market non-participation puzzle (Mankiw and Zeldes 1991).
Piecewise-linear value functions and no probability weighting are common assumptions in many
applications of prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory in finance.2 Besides the fact
that considering the “full” CPT is quite challenging, ignoring probability weighting and assuming
piecewise-linear value functions are often motivated by the fact that loss aversion has the highest
impact on portfolio choices. However, when no probability weighting is used and the value function
is piecewise-linear, CPT emerges as a special case of EUT, with, additionally, the assumption that
investors are risk neutral on gains and losses, and display loss aversion. Being a special case of EUT
under these specifications, CPT cannot address several of the observed violations of EUT and thus
looses most of its descriptive validity. Moreover, probability weighting in CPT describes decision
makers’ behavior with respect to low-probability payoffs. In the context of portfolio choice, these
2
Exceptions are De Giorgi, Hens, and Levy (2011), Levy and Levy (2004), Barberis and Huang (2008b), Jin and
Zhou (2008), Bernard and Ghossoub (2010), He and Zhou (2011) and Barberis (2012).
weighting in CPT plays a crucial role for portfolio selection and asset pricing when returns displays
The main contribution of this paper is to show that the framework proposed by Barberis and
Huang (2009) can be extended to account for all elements of cumulative prospect theory, i.e., to also
incorporate inverse-S shaped probability weighting and a value function that is convex on losses and
concave on gains. To our knowledge, this is the first paper that also includes probability weighting
in a dynamic consumption-portfolio model with CPT preferences.4 The paper demonstrates that
adding probability weighting does not increase the complexity of the model and that its analytical
the theoretical analysis, since an important property of the model is lost, namely the homogene-
ity property which plays a crucial role when deriving analytical solutions. As a consequence, to
deal with a convex-concave value function we develop a flexible computational approach based on
numerical dynamic programming, that is of interest on its own and can be applied to a variety of
models.
3
Barberis and Huang (2008b) present a representative agent, one-period model where some assets display positive
skewness. They show that CPT investors are skewness seeking and hold positively skewed assets, which in equilibrium
earn a negative excess return. This result is due to probability weighing. In the context of Rank-Dependent Expected
Utility of Quiggin (1982) and Yaari (1987), Polkovnichenko and Zhao (2010) provide empirical support for inverse-S
shape probability weighting functions using option prices.
4
Jin and Zhou (2008) present a time-continuous portfolio selection model with CPT preferences (and probability
weighting) where consumption only takes place in the final period. Using the martingale approach they show that
their model can be equivalently written as a static portfolio selection model.
framing, we perform a number of numerical exercises, demonstrating that the addition of proba-
bility weighting and a convex-concave value function reinforces previous applications of cumulative
prospect theory to understanding both the stock market non-participation puzzle and the equity
premium puzzle.5
More specifically, in a portfolio choice setting, when we allow for inverse-S shaped probability
weighting functions and a convex-concave value function, narrow framing will make it all the less
likely for the investor to participate in the stock market. This result is robust to different specifi-
cations of the return distribution and investors’ preferences. The addition of probability weighting
is particularly important when the framed asset display negative skewness, since in this case, when
we use common values for loss aversion, the model without probability weighting is not able to
explain non-participation or even low participation to the stock market. Finally, addition of a
convex-concave value function leads to new important wealth effects. As initial wealth increases,
the impact of narrow framing is reduced. Consequently, wealthy investors appear to be less af-
fected by narrow framing and participate more in the stock market, while the opposite is true for
investors with low initial wealth. This is consistent with the empirical observations on stock market
participation reported by Hong, Kubik, and Stein (2004), showing that stock market participation
ing on equilibrium prices is qualitatively similar to when there is no probability weighting: as the
degree of narrow framing is increased, the equilibrium risk-free rate decreases and the equity pre-
mium of the narrowly framed asset increases. However, although qualitatively similar, probability
weighting does have a significant impact on the value of the equilibrium risk-free rate and the equity
premium. Specifically, we observe that when the framed asset displays positive skewness (as is the
case with log-normal returns) and we assume moderate loss aversion, the equity premium in the
presence of probability weighting is slightly lower (and the risk-free rate slightly higher) compared
to the case without probability weighting. This is readily explained by the fact that investors with
probability weighting like positive skewness more than do investors without probability weighting
when loss aversion is moderate (see also Barberis and Huang 2008b). In contrast, when loss aver-
sion is high or the framed asset displays negative skewness (as it the case with aggregated market
returns), the equity premium with probability weighting is much higher (and the risk-free rate
much lower) than in the case without probability weighting. Specifically, with negative skewness
and for typical values of loss aversion, the equity premium ranges from 5% to 6% in the presence
The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 presents the model with fram-
ing suggested by Barberis and Huang (2009) along with its extensions to allow for probability
weighting and convex-concave value functions. Section 3 describes the algorithm used to solve the
a numerical exercise and discusses the effect of framing in the general models studied in this paper.
Section 5 concludes.
2 Model
This section generalizes the model with framing suggested by Barberis and Huang (2009) by al-
lowing probability weighting and a convex-concave value function, both of which are important
features of cumulative prospect theory. The description of the model closely follows Barberis and
Huang (2009).
At time t the investor chooses a consumption level Ct and decides how to invest her remaining
wealth Wt − Ct accross n assets with gross returns R1,t+1 , . . . , Rn,t+1 between time t and t + 1.
n
X
Wt+1 = (Wt − Ct ) θi,t Ri,t+1
i=1
The investor frames assets m + 1, . . . , n narrowly. The investor’s utility at time t is then given
as follows:
n
!
X
(1) Vt = H Ct , µ(Vt+1 |It ) + b0 Ut (Gi,t+1 )
i=m+1
1
(2) H(C, x) = ((1 − β) C ρ + β xρ ) ρ , 0 < β < 1, 0 6= ρ < 1,
In Equation (1), µ(Vt+1 |It ) is the certainty equivalent at time t of the investor’s (random) utility
utility specification that allows for narrow framing, i.e., the investor can also get utility directly
from assets i > m. The utility function Ut is defined as follows. For a random variable Gt+1 with
where
xζ x≥0
(6) v(x) = , ζ ∈ (0, 1]
−λ (−x)ζ x < 0
+
+ pδ
(7) w (p) = , δ + ∈ (0.3, 1]
(pδ+ + (1 − p)δ+ )1/δ+
−
− pδ
(8) w (p) = , δ − ∈ (0.3, 1].
(pδ− + (1 − p)δ− )1/δ−
The function Ut corresponds to the cumulative prospect theory (CPT) value function, consistent
with the motivation given by Barberis and Huang (2009) suggesting that (cumulative) prospect
piecewise-linear function) and δ + = δ − = 1 (no probability weighting, i.e., w+ (p) = w− (p) = p for
Ut (Gi,t+1 ) = Et [v̄(Gi,t+1 )]
As shown in Barberis and Huang (2008b), if ζ < 2 min(δ + , δ − ), which is the case in many
calibrations of CPT (see Abdellaoui 2000), then the function Ut can be written as
Z 0 Z ∞
−
(9) Ut (Gt+1 ) = − w (Ft (x)) dv̄(x) + w+ (1 − Ft (x)) dv̄(x)
−∞ 0
When Gi,t+1 is given by Equation (4) with a fixed reference point Ri,z , θi,t > 0 and Wt > Ct ,
x R x
Fi,t (x) = P [Gi,t+1 ≤ x|It ] = P Ri,t+1 ≤ + Ri,z |It = Fi,t+1 + Ri,z
θi,t (Wt − Ct ) θi,t (Wt − Ct )
and thus:
Z 0
R − x
Ut (Gi,t+1 ) = − w Fi,t+1 + Ri,z dv̄(x)
−∞ θi,t (Wt − Ct )
Z ∞
+ R x
+ w 1 − Fi,t+1 + Ri,z dv̄(x)
0 θi,t (Wt − Ct )
Z 0
ζ ζ
w− Fi,t+1
R
= θi,t (Wt − Ct ) − (y + Ri,z ) dv̄(y)
−∞
Z ∞
+ R
+ w 1 − Fi,t+1 (y + Ri,z ) dv̄(y)
0
ζ
= θi,t (Wt − Ct )ζ Ut (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z ).
10
Finally,
n
!
X
(10) Vt = H Ct , µ(Vt+1 |It ) + b0 (Wt − Ct )ζ |θi,t |ζ Ut (sign(θi,t ) (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )) .
i=m+1
Note that, if ζ < 1, wealth at time t enters into the investor’s utility as an additional weighting
factor for framed stocks. Namely, suppose that an investor with wealth Wt at time t has the optimal
consumption plan (Cτ )τ =t,t+1,... , optimal strategies (θi,τ )i=1,...,n,τ =t,t+1,... and a framing parameter
b0 Wt1−ζ that depends on his wealth. Let Vt be his utility at time t. Since (Cτ /Wt )τ =t,t+1,... is
a feasible consumption plan for an investor with wealth 1, and (θi,τ )i=1,...,n,τ =t,t+1,... are feasible
investment strategies, the utility for this second investor at time t is derived under the assumption
ζ Xn
!
Ct Vt+1 Ct
H ,µ |It + b0 1 − |θi,t |ζ Ut (sign(θi,t ) (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z ))
Wt Wt Wt i=m+1
n
!
1 X Vt
= H Ct , µ(Vt+1 |It ) + b0 Wt1−ζ (Wt − Ct )ζ |θi,t |ζ Ut (sign(θi,t ) (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )) = .
Wt i=m+1
Wt
It follows from this last equation that the consumption plan (Cτ /Wt )τ =t,t+1,... and the investment
strategies (θi,τ )i=1,...,n,τ =t,t+1,... are optimal for the investor with wealth 1 at time t. Therefore, as
long as the utility function v̄ on the framed asset is convex-concave (i.e., ζ ∈ (0, 1)), wealth at time t
determines the impact of the framed stock on the investor’s utility. In other words, an investor with
11
framed stocks more. This interesting observation implies that in our model with a convex-concave
function v̄, wealthy investors are less concerned by the effect of narrow framing.
We now address the consumption-portfolio problem. From Equation (10) we derive the Bellman
equation
(11)
n
!
X
ζ ζ
Vt = J(Wt , It ) = max H Ct , µ(J(Wt+1 , It+1 )|It ) + b0 (Wt − Ct ) |θi,t | Ut (sign(θi,t )(Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )) .
θt ,Ct
i=m+1
where H and µ are given by Equations (2) and (3), respectively. Unfortunately, when a convex-
concave function v̄ is used, H is not homogeneous, which implies that the consumption and portfolio
decision problems cannot be separated as in Barberis and Huang (2009). Consequently, analytical
tractability is lost. Section 3 will discuss how we deal with the general case of a convex-concave
value function (ζ ∈ (0, 1)) using simulations, while this section focuses on the case of a piecewise-
When the value function v in Equation (6) is piecewise-linear (ζ = 1), H is homogenous of degree
one and the consumption and portfolio decision problems can be separated. This works exactly
as in Barberis and Huang (2009) and thus only the main steps are reported here; see also Backus,
Routledge, and Zin (2004, Page 343) for an application of recursive preferences to the portfolio and
consumption problem. First, it can be shown that J(Wt , It ) = At (It ) Wt , where At (It ) = J(1, It )
12
At (It ) Wt =
" " n
#ρ #1/ρ
X
= max (1 − β)Ctρ + β(Wt − Ct )ρ µ(At+1 θt0 Rt+1 )|It ) + b0 |θi,t | Ut (sign(θi,t )(Ri,t+1 − Ri,z ))
θt ,Ct
i=m+1
where θt = (θt1 , . . . , θtn )0 and Rt+1 = (R1,t+1 , . . . , Rn,t+1 )0 . Second, consumption and portfolio
problems can be separated, given that the last terms in the bracket of the last equation only
depend on θt , while the first term only depends on Ct . Therefore, the portfolio selection problem is
" n
#
X
Bt? = max µ(At+1 θt0 Rt+1 )|It ) + b0 |θi,t | Ut (sign(θi,t ) (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z ))
θt
i=m+1
where
Ct
αt =
Wt
is the consumption-to-wealth ratio. Note that Bt? > 0. Indeed, negative utility only comes from
framed assets, and the investor can still choose not to allocate post-consumption wealth to framed
for the consumption problem to find the optimal consumption-to-wealth ratio αt? and the optimal
value At (It ) = (1 − β)1/ρ (αt? )1−1/ρ as a function of αt? . The first-order condition (12) is sufficient
for a global optimum since [(1 − β) αtρ + β (1 − αt )ρ (Bt? )ρ ]1/ρ is strictly concave as a function of αt
13
1/(1−γ)
µ(x) = E x1−γ
(14)
with γ > 0, γ 6= 1, the right-hand side of Equation (13) is strictly concave in θt , thus any local
The only difference that appears in Equations (12) and (13) relative to the case where no proba-
bility weighting applies (i.e., δ + = δ − = 1) is that the expected utility Et [v̄ (sign(θi,t )(Ri,t+1 − Ri,z ))]
is replaced by Ut (sign(θi,t )(Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )), which contains the probability weighting functions w+
and w− . It is straightforward to show that the necessary and sufficient first-order conditions re-
ported in Barberis and Huang (2009, Proposition 1) apply to our model with a piecewise-linear func-
tion and probability weighting, after the expected utility Et [v̄ (sign(θi,t )(Ri,t+1 − Ri,z ))] is replaced
by Ut (sign(θi,t )(Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )).6 Therefore addition of probability weighting does not increase the
This section briefly addresses asset pricing implications of narrow framing when the value function
for the framed asset is piecewise-linear and probability weighting applies. The analysis assumes
6
For sake of completeness we report the necessary and sufficient first-order conditions for our model with proba-
bility weighting (and a piecewise-linear value function) in Appendix A.
14
might lead to predictions that are qualitatively different to those of a more realistic heterogeneous
agent model; see, e.g., Chapman and Polkovnichenko (2009) and De Giorgi, Hens, and Rieger
(2010). In Section 4 the model will be applied to the stock market equity premium. In this case,
the equity premium we obtain in our representative agent setting can be thought as an upper bound
to what one would get from a heterogenous agent model, as discussed by Barberis and Huang (2009,
Page 1567).
The theoretical analysis is a direct extension of that presented by Barberis and Huang (2009).
The only reason we report it here is that Section 4 will refer to the equilibrium conditions in
Suppose that a representative agent exists with preferences as described in Equations (1)–(8),
µ is given by Equation (14) and ρ = 1 − γ. Additionally it is assumed that the reference return for
the narrowly framed asset is the risk-free gross return Rf,t , i.e., Ri,z = Rf,t in Equation (4), and
Lemma 2.1.
" −γ # " −γ #γ/(1−γ)
Ct+1 Ct+1
β 1/(1−γ) Rf,t Et Et RW,t+1 =1
Ct Ct
where RW,t+1 = Wt+1 /(Wt − Ct ) is the gross return of the total wealth portfolio.
15
probability weighting is that Et [v̄(Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )] is replaced by Ut (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z ). In other words,
since probability weighting impacts the value that investors attribute to framed stocks, it also
3 Computational Aspects
As discussed in the previous section, when probability weighting is added to the narrow framing
model of Barberis and Huang (2009) it remains possible to separate the consumption and portfolio
problems. This allows us to use their method to efficiently compute the investor’s optimal strategy.
Specifically, the computation begins with initial values for θt+1 and αt+1 and then applies a function
minimization algorithm to Equation (10) to solve for θt , and thus compute Bt∗ . Using these values,
we then obtain the consumption-to-wealth ratio αt . To compute the optimal consumption and
portfolio, we simply repeat the above procedure updating the values of θt and αt each time, until
we obtain convergence. We have found that this procedure converges with high precision within a
The addition of a convex-concave value function makes the computational problem significantly
more challenging as the investor’s consumption and portfolio decisions are no longer separable and
thus we can no longer apply the above procedure. Instead, we apply numerical dynamic program-
ming, a significantly slower but much more flexible simulation method which computes the optimal
consumption and portfolio decisions over time from the investor’s Bellman equation (see, for ex-
16
necessary computations in a manner that is sufficiently fast and accurate requires careful engineer-
ing.
completeness, we now give a detailed description of our computational approach for dealing with
model the state is simply the investor’s wealth and thus for simplicity we will write the state as
Wt . In general, however, St could include any information about the investor or the market that is
necessary to determine her optimal behavior. During period t the investor consumes Ct and invests
the remaining wealth across some risky assets, the proportions of which are specified by the vector
θt . At the end of the period the investor is in state Wt+1 . This is a random variable due to the
stochastic nature of the asset returns. The investor’s optimal utility Vt , optimal consumption Ct
and optimal portfolio θt are then given by the Bellman equation which can be written,
where the function H defines how we combine the utility derived from the consumption in the cur-
rent time period t with the current value of optimal utility Vt+1 (Wt+1 ) and other sources of utility
Vt+1 (Ct , θt , Wt ) at time t + 1. In our model with framing, Vt+1 (Ct , θt , Wt ) is the sum of gains and
losses from framed assets. The function Ut defines how the current value of next period’s utility is
17
value of gains and losses Vt+1 (Ct , θt , Wt ) from the framed assets; see Equation (1). For convenience
we define J(Ct , θt , Ut (Vt+1 (Wt+1 ), Vt+1 (Ct , θt , Wt )), Wt ) to be the function that is to be maximized
in each step.
The key point to notice about Equation (15) is that Vt on the left is defined in terms of Vt+1
on the right. Thus, if we know Vt+1 , by maximizing J over Ct and θt we can find Vt . By repeating
this process we can compute the investor’s optimal utility Vt for each t, and also find the optimal
To begin the backwards computation process, we first need to know VT , where T is the end of
the investor’s life. For simplicity we assume that the investor consumes all remaining wealth and
1
so VT (WT ) = (1 − β) ρ WT . To approximate investors with an unlimited lifetime we let T be large
With VT known, the next step is to compute VT −1 using Equation (15). We cannot do this for
every possible state WT −1 , and so we take a small number of fixed points. In our framing model
four points are sufficient as Vt (Wt ) is a smooth function of Wt . For each selected state WT −1 we
then maximize over CT −1 and θT −1 in order to find VT −1 (WT −1 ). Because, in general, this function
may have local optima, we begin by conducting a grid search over possible values of CT −1 and
18
a standard function optimization algorithm to find the optimum within this sub-region to several
decimal places. While this is not guaranteed to find the global optimum, in practice we have found
this combination of global search followed by local fine tuning to be very robust. Given values for
WT −1 , CT −1 and θT −1 , computing J is then just a matter of plugging all the values into the model
To now compute an estimate for VT −2 we repeat the above procedure, but with an added com-
plication: while we could compute the value of VT (WT ) for any WT , now we only have estimates of
VT −1 on a finite set of WT −1 values. Thus we need some way to estimate VT −1 based on the points
we know. To do this our software fits a multi-dimensional surface that approximates VT −1 . In our
framing model, this is a one dimensional function over WT −1 . Furthermore, we have found that
using quadratic interpolation and extrapolation are already sufficiently accurate for this model.
Some of the more complex models we have experimented with, however, have used both more point
estimates and higher order polynomials. With a method of estimating VT −1 (WT −1 ) we can then
proceed to compute VT −2 and the optimal values of CT −2 and θT −2 just as we did in the previous
step. By repeating this process we can obtain an estimate of the investor’s optimal utility, con-
7
In our numerical examples in Section 4, the grid search is over two dimensions. For high dimensional spaces,
one can use the methodology presented in De Giorgi, Hens, and Mayer (2007).
19
surface fitted to these points, the maximization over Ct and θt , and the backwards recursion of this
process over time, are essentially the same for every model. Thus we have created a general compu-
tation engine that performs the above steps in a standardized way. To test some model, all that the
user has to do is provide the engine with the function J(Ct , θt , Ut (Vt+1 (St+1 ), Vt+1 (Ct , θt , St )). As
the estimates of Vt+1 (St+1 ) are provided by the simulation engine, the computation of J is usually
fairly straightforward. Besides J, all the model needs to specify is the size of the state space, the
number of assets, and any constraints that it places on these, for example to limit short selling.
The main advantage of numerical dynamic programming is that it allows us to freely experiment
with a wide range of models: we can compute an optimal strategy for essentially any dynamically
consistent model which has a smooth utility function over some state space. Furthermore, the simu-
lation reveals not just a steady state solution, but the full dynamics of the investor’s optimal utility,
consumption and asset allocations over her life. The main disadvantage is clearly computational
cost and thus some effort has gone into ensuring that the required computations are performed
as quickly and accurately as possible. For the Merton model (Merton 1973), we can calculate an
investor’s optimal portfolio strategy over a 70 year period in a few minutes. For a more complex
model, such as our narrow framing model with probability weighting and a convex-concave value
function, this computation takes about an hour. To approximate investors with an unlimited life-
time we continue the computation until convergence, which typically takes two or three hours for
a complex model.
20
Wachter model with mean reverting Sharpe ratio (Wachter 2002), and the model with framing
discussed in the previous section, without and with probability weighting and a piecewise-linear
value function. For these models analytic solutions exist, so that we can easily verify the accuracy
of the solutions obtained. Under a range of parameter settings the simulator produced results that
4 Numerical Examples
4.1 Consumption and Portfolio Selection Problems
In this section we study the impact of probability weighting and a convex-concave value function
on a simple consumption-portfolio problem taken from Barberis and Huang (2009). This problem
consists of an investor who makes consumption and portfolio decisions on a yearly basis. The
investor has an unlimited lifespan and a temporal discount rate of β = 0.98.8 Each year the
investor allocates her post-consumption wealth across three assets. The first asset is risk-free and
has a net return of Rf − 1 = 2%. The second and third assets are risky with gross returns R2,t+1
Wt+1 = (Wt − Ct ) ((1 − θ2,t − θ3,t )Rf + θ2,t R2,t+1 + θ3,t R3,t+1 ) .
As in Barberis and Huang (2009), θ2,t = 0.5, so that the investor just has to split the remaining
post-consumption wealth (1 − θ2,t ) (Wt − Ct ) between the risk-free asset and the third asset. The
8
We fix the temporal discount rate β since it only has a small impact on our results.
21
human capital, while asset 3 might represent the domestic stock market. The third asset is the only
asset that is narrowly framed, i.e., the investor holds preferences according to Equations (1)-(4),
where n = 3 and m = 2. We additionally assume that µ has the functional form given in Equa-
tion (14) and that ρ = 1 − γ, where γ is the parameter of risk aversion. Moreover, the reference
gross-return R3,z used to specify Ut in Equation (1) is set equal to Rf = 1.02 and corresponds to
the risk-free gross return. Our discussion will focus on the proportion θ3 /(1 − θ2 ) of the remaining
In our analysis, we will consider two different assumptions for the distributions of returns R2,t+1
and R3,t+1 . We first consider the case of log-normally distributed returns, as in Barberis and Huang
(2009). To also allow for negative skewness, the analysis is then extended by considering the case
In what follows, when the value function is assumed to be piecewise-linear, the results are
computed using the quasi-analytical approach that exploits the separability of portfolio and con-
sumption problems, as discussed in Section 2. By contrast, the case with a convex-concave value
22
where
2,t 0 1 ω
(17) ∼N , , i.i.d. over time.
3,t 0 ω 1
The parametric specification of our model is reported in Table 1. We deviate from the numerical
example reported by Barberis and Huang (2009) only in one respect: we use higher drift rates and
volatilities based on annual returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1946 to January 2009.
higher than the values used by Barberis and Huang (2009) (g2 = g3 = 4% and σ2 = σ3 = 10%). The
reason that we decided to report the portfolio selection result obtained using historical values for
drift rates and standard deviations of assets 2 and 3 is that these are qualitatively different from
those obtained using Barberis and Huang’s (2009) parameter specifications.9 This allows us to
better describe the impact of probability weighting on investors’ allocation in a model with narrow
framing, as discussed below. Our calibrations imply a mean of 7.6% and a standard deviation of
17.0% for the annual returns of the S&P 500 index. Note that, from January 2008 to January 2009,
9
Under Barberis and Huang’s (2009) parameter specifications, the narrowly framed asset displays a lower value
under CPT than in our specification and the narrow framer is less likely to invest into it, for all specifications of the
CPT value function (with and without probability weighting). However, probability weighting reinforces the effect
of narrow framing.
23
Our first results are reported in Figure 1 and in Table 2 (column 2) and refer to the case where CPT
is specified using a piecewise-linear value function (ζ = 1 in Equation (4)) and no probability weight-
ing (δ + = δ − = 1 in Equations (7) and (8)). We compute how the remaining post-consumption
wealth (after 50% has already been invested in asset 2) is allocated to the third asset as a function
of the parameter of risk aversion γ and the degree of narrow framing b0 . We fix the parameter of loss
aversion to be λ = 2.25, as calibrated by Tversky and Kahneman (1992) from their experiments.
With no narrow framing, that is, b0 = 0, it is observed that it is only with a risk aversion of
4 or greater that the investor no longer allocates 100% of the remaining post-consumption wealth
to asset 3. Even with γ = 8.0 the investor still allocates slightly less than 45% of the remaining
the risky asset 2. It is well-known that investors with expected utility preferences invest a high
proportion of their wealth in risky assets, even if their degree of risk aversion is high, in contrast
24
If the degree of narrow framing b0 is increased, it is observed that the investor further increases
her holding of asset 3. This result is different from that reported by Barberis and Huang (2009). The
difference can be easily explained, as in our numerical exercise calibrated on historical returns, the
framed asset has a Sharpe ratio of 0.329, while in Barberis and Huang (2009) it is lower at 0.248.10
Obviously, the characteristics of the framed assets, e.g., their Sharpe ratio, play an important role
in the way narrow framing impacts the asset allocation. To get a deeper understanding of this, we
compute how the asset allocation to the framed asset changes when the Sharpe ratio is between 0.27
and 0.38. Figure 2 reports the allocation to the narrowly framed asset as a function of the Sharpe
ratio, with fixed risk aversion γ = 5, fixed loss aversion λ = 2.25, and three different values for the
degree of narrow framing. We see that up to a Sharpe ratio of 0.31 (slightly below our estimated
value of 0.329), the effect of narrow framing is to reduce the allocation to the framed asset (as
reported by Barberis and Huang (2009)), while the opposite holds when the Sharpe ratio is higher
than 0.31. In this latter case, the framed asset is more attractive for the investor, who increases
her holding as the degree of framing increases. It follows that in this case, where the Sharpe ratio
is high, framing does not explain why investors only hold a small proportion of stocks. Note that a
Sharpe ratio of 0.31 corresponds to the crossing point in Figure 2, i.e., the Sharpe ratio such that
the framed asset has zero CPT value. Obviously, this depends on the parameters’ specification
10
Since returns are assumed to be log-normally distributed, to compute the Sharpe ratio we first derive mean and
2 2 2
variance according to the formulae egi +σi /2 and (eσi − 1) e2 gi +σi , respectively.
25
then framing does not have any impact on the investor’s asset allocation, while when it is strictly
negative (strictly positive) the allocation to the framed asset is decreased (increased) as the degree
In Figure 3 we report the CPT value of the framed asset as a function of loss aversion assuming
that the framed asset is log-normally distributed with mean 7.6% and standard deviation 17.0%
(our calibration based on historical returns). Figure 3 shows how the impact of narrow framing
qualitatively changes as function of the degree of loss aversion. Obviously, as loss aversion increases,
the CPT value of the framed asset decreases. The solid line corresponds to the case with no prob-
ability weighting and a piecewise-linear value function. In this case, the CPT value of the framed
asset becomes negative when loss aversion is higher than 2.4. Therefore, under our parametrization
of the return distribution of the framed asset, a degree of loss aversion slightly higher than the one
found by Tversky and Kahneman (1992) in their experiments is required for the investor to reduce
her holding of the framed asset when the degree of narrow framing increases.
We now add probability weighting into the specification of CPT. The parameters of the probability
weighting functions given in Equation (7) and (8) are δ + = 0.61 and δ − = 0.69, respectively,
26
narrowly framed risky asset for the case with a piecewise-linear value function and probability
Obviously, with no narrow framing (b0 = 0) the results are identical to the case without proba-
bility weighting, as probability weighting only enters into the valuation of narrowly framed assets.
However, as the investor narrowly frames the third asset, she now reduces her allocation to that
asset (when risk aversion is high enough). Note that in the case of loss aversion alone (i.e., no prob-
ability weighting) we observed the opposite pattern, as discussed above. This result is somehow
counterintuitive. In fact, since log-normally distributed returns display a positive skewness, one
would expect that the introduction of probability weighting will make the framed asset even more
attractive for the investor, who will more likely increase her allocation to it as the degree of narrow
framing increases. However, our result is due to another property of the probability weighting
function that is called subcertainty: probability weights in cumulative prospect theory do not need
to sum up to one (as is case for probabilities) and this discourages risk taking (see Shefrin 2008,
Chapter 24.2.1).11 We found that in our example probability weights sum up to 0.86.12
Nonetheless, even with probability weighting the effect of framing is weak, and even in this case
with a high enough Sharpe ratio investors with probability weighting will increase their allocation
11
We thank a referee for suggesting this explanation for our findings.
12
In our model the sum of probability weights corresponds to w− (Ft (0)) + w+ (1 − Ft (0)), where w− and w+ are
probability weighting functions and Ft is the cumulative distribution of excess returns over the reference point; see
Equation (4).
27
investors with no short-sale constraints will infinitely leverage the market portfolio when the Sharpe
ratio is high enough and the distribution of returns presents positive skewness (see De Giorgi, Hens,
and Levy 2011), as is the case with the log-normal distribution. To see how the Sharpe ratio impacts
the effect of narrow framing when probability weighting is added to the model, Figure 5 reports
the allocation to the framed asset as a function of the Sharpe ratio, with a fixed parameter of risk
aversion γ = 5, fixed loss aversion λ = 2.25, and three different values for the degree of narrow
framing. We find that narrow framing reduces the allocation to the framed asset when the Sharpe
ratio is smaller than 0.35 (slightly above our estimated Sharpe ratio), while the opposite occurs
when the Sharpe ratio is above 0.35. This number is slightly higher than the one found in the case
of no probability weighting.
As noted above, the effect of narrow framing depends on whether the CPT value of the framed
asset is strictly negative, zero or strictly positive. In Figure 3 we thus report the CPT value of the
framed asset as a function of loss aversion assuming that the framed asset is log-normally distributed
with historically calibrated mean 7.6% and standard deviation 17.0%. The dashed line corresponds
to the case with probability weighting and a piecewise-linear value function. In this case, the CPT
value of the framed asset becomes negative when loss aversion is higher than 2.15. This value is
slightly smaller than the median degree of loss aversion found by Tversky and Kahneman (1992),
and significantly below the 2.4 found when no probability weighting is considered. Figure 3 also
28
value function (a case that we will consider in more detail below under the assumption of skew-
normally distributed returns). We observe (dotted line) that in this case the CPT value of the
narrowly framed asset becomes negative when loss aversion is higher than 2, i.e., the addition of a
convex-concave value function further reinforces the finding of Barberis and Huang (2009) on the
The assumption of a log-normal distribution implies that returns display positive skewness: it
is 0.47 in our numerical example. In the presence of probability weighting, negative skewness is
expected to have an impact on framing, so a model that excludes negative skewness a priori is
not well-suited for our analysis. Indeed, probability weighting describes people’s preferences with
respect to payoffs that occur with a small probability, i.e., the observation that decision makers
dislike extreme losses and like extreme gains. Together with loss aversion, probability weighting
implies that investors dislike payoffs that do not offer a high upside potential relative to the down-
side risk. In the context of asset returns, this means that CPT investors like positive skewness and
dislike negative skewness (see Barberis and Huang 2008b). Finally, it is well-known that negative
skewness is a characteristic of the distribution of aggregate stock market returns; therefore, it seems
important to allow for negative skewness in the return distribution of asset 3.13
13
By contrast, firm-level stock returns display positive skewness. See Albuquerque (2012) for a recent analysis of
skewness in stock returns.
29
normal distribution. We opt for the skew-normal distribution for the following reasons: (i) it is
very flexible and can account for positive and negative skewness, (ii) it can be easily estimated,
and (iii) the normal distribution is a special case of it. The density function of the skew-normal
where φ is the standard normal probability density function, Φ is the standard normal probability
are the shape, scale and location parameters, respectively. The parameter
1
sign(ν) π2 |ν| 3
p
κ= q 23 ,
2 4−π
|ν| 3 + 2
which only depends on skewness ν, is zero when ν = 0. In this case, the skew-normal distribution
We calibrate the skew-normal distribution on annual returns of the S&P 500 index from January
1946 to January 2009. The calibrated parameters are reported in Table 1. These imply a mean
return of 7.6%, standard deviation of of 15.8% and a skewness of −0.339.14 We see that allowing
for negative skewness, the volatility decreases from 17% to 15.8%, while the mean remains almost
14
Aı̈t-Sahalia and Brandt (2001) report similar values for the skewness of annual returns of the S&P 500.
30
Sharpe ratio, it is not clear whether investors with probability weighting will perceive the framed
asset as being less or more attractive than in the case of log-normal returns, since skewness becomes
negative. We will return to this later. Figure 6 reports the calibrated density functions under
the skew-normal distribution assumption as well as under the log-normal distribution assumption
considered above. It is shown that the skew-normal distribution attaches higher probability to
The log-normal distribution for returns R2,t+1 and R3,t+1 is replaced with the skew-normal
distribution, i.e.,
while a normal copula with correlation parameter ω is used to specify the dependence between
assets’ returns.15 A normal copula is utilized instead of a “full” bivariate skew-normal distribution,
since the normal copula was implicitly assumed in the case of log-normally distributed returns con-
sidered above. Indeed, we assumed a bivariate normal distribution for (2,t , 3,t )0 in Equations (16)
and (17) and this implies a normal copula for the dependence structure. Therefore, our results with
skew-normally distributed returns will only depend on our assumptions for the marginal distribu-
15
A random vector X = (X1 , . . . , Xd )0 with joint cumulative distribution function F and each Xi has
(marginal) cumulative distribution function Fi , i = 1, . . . , d, possess the copula function C when F (x1 , . . . , xd ) =
C(F1 (x1 ), . . . , Fd (xd )). The copula function exists and is unique when all marginal distribution functions Fi are
continuous. The normal copula is the copula function of a multivariate, normally distributed random vector X. For
a nice introduction to copulae see Nelsen (2006).
31
For the first exercise with skew-normal returns, we consider again the narrow framing model with a
piecewise-linear value function and no probability weighting. The results for this case are reported
Similarly to the case with log-normal returns, the allocation to the framed asset increases as the
degree of narrow framing increases. The effect is now weaker than in the case of log-normal returns
because the investor is loss averse and dislikes negative skewness. However, with no probability
weighting, it seems that the Sharpe ratio is the main driver of her preference for the framed asset.
We recall that the effect of narrow framing depends on whether the CPT value of the framed
asset is strictly negative, zero or strictly positive. In Figure 8 we thus report the CPT value of
the framed asset as a function of loss aversion assuming that the framed asset is skew-normally
distributed with mean 7.6%, standard deviation 15.8%, and skew -0.339. The full line corresponds
to the case with no probability weighting and a piecewise-linear value function. In this case, the
CPT value of the framed asset becomes negative when loss aversion is higher than 2.4, similar to
log-normally distributed returns. This result confirms that skewness does not seem to play a crucial
32
Next the behavior of the probability weighting investor with skew-normal returns is explored. These
results appear in Figure 9 and Table 2 (column 5). As expected, the probability weighting investor
is far more sensitive to the negative skewness of the returns. While the Sharpe ratio is higher than
in the case of log-normal returns, negative skewness causes the investor with probability weighting
to behave in the same way as in the case with log-normal returns. However, in this instance very
little narrow framing is required before the investor decides to completely move out of holding the
third asset.
In Figure 8 we report the CPT value of the framed asset as a function of loss aversion assuming
the framed asset is skew-normally distributed with mean 7.6%, standard deviation 15.8%, and skew
-0.339. The dashed line corresponds to the case with probability weighting and a piecewise-linear
value function. In this case, the CPT value of the framed asset becomes negative when loss aversion
is higher than 1.7 (we had 2.15 with log-normally distributed returns). As expected, with negative
skewness the impact of probability weighting is strong: with probability weighting the investor
reduces her holding of the narrowly framed asset even when the degree of loss aversion is assumed
33
In all the numerical exercises presented above, the value function v̄ given in Equation (6) has been
since consumption and portfolio decisions can be separated and the model is analytically tractable.
However, CPT preferences are characterized by a convex-concave value function v̄, where ζ is usu-
ally equal to 0.88, as calibrated by Tversky and Kahneman (1992). With a convex-concave value
function, consumption and portfolio decisions are not separable anymore, but can be solved nu-
merically using the approach discussed in Section 3. Figure 10 and Table 2 (column 6) report the
results when we additionally assume probability weighting and skew-normal distributed returns, as
defined above.
With a convex-concave value function, the initial wealth has to be specified, since the allocation
now depends on it. If W0 = $100, 000, a convex-concave value function slightly reduces the effect
of narrow framing. This is hardly surprising, given that a convex value function on losses (in
addition to probability weighting) implies a risk-seeking attitude on losses with a moderate to high
probability. However, investors’ attitude on extreme losses is mainly determined by the probability
weighting function; and investors with a convex-concave value function behave in a similar manner
to investors with a piecewise-linear value function (and probability weighting) in the presence of
negative skewness. Also Figure 8, where the CPT value of the framed asset is plotted as a function
of loss aversion (the dotted line is the case with probability weighting and a convex-concave value
34
preferences on framed assets, introduces an interesting wealth effect. As wealth increases, a higher
degree of narrow framing is needed for framing to impact investors’ decisions. In our numerical
example above, we have W0 = $100, 000. An investor with initial wealth W0 = $1, 000, 000 would
behave similarly to the investor in our numerical example with the degree of narrow framing as
101−0.88 = 1.32 times higher. If we combine this effect with the results above on the impact of
narrow framing, we notice that in the model with probability weighting and a convex-concave
value function, wealthy investors allocate more to framed assets than investors with a low wealth
level. For instance, an investor with initial wealth $1, 000, 000, risk aversion γ = 5 and degree of
narrow framing b0 = 0.1, would invest 38.0% of the remaining post-consumption wealth on the
narrowly framed asset, while an investor with initial wealth $100, 000 but same parameters, would
invest 18.8% of remaining post-consumption wealth on the framed asset. If the framed asset in our
numerical example is taken to be the stock market, it would imply that wealthy investors have a
higher participation in stock markets. This is consistent with the observation reported by Hong,
Kubik, and Stein (2004) that stock market participation grows very quickly as a function of wealth.
35
This section addresses asset pricing implications of narrow framing with probability weighting. The
numerical example of the previous subsection is considered, where investors narrowly frame asset
3, with asset 2 seen as a non-financial asset, and a representative investor exists with preferences
according to Equations (1)-(4), where n = 3 and m = 2. Additionally, µ has the functional form
given in Equation (14) and ρ = 1 − γ, where γ is the parameter of risk aversion. Moreover, the
reference gross-return R3,z used to specify Ut in Equation (1) is set equal to the risk-free gross
return Rf,t .
Furthermore, the following conditions are imposed, taken from Barberis and Huang (2009): (i)
the risk-free rate is constant, Rf,t = Rf for all t; (ii) consumption growth Ct+1 /Ct is log-normal
Ct+1
log = gC + σC C,t+1
Ct
where C,t ∼ N (0, 1); (iii) the consumption-to-wealth ratio αt = Ct /Wt = α is constant over time,
(iv) the fraction of post-consumption wealth θ3,t = θ3 invested in stock 3 is also constant over time.
Under these conditions, we can easily solve the characterization of equilibrium prices reported in
Lemma 2.1. Nevertheless, we would like to emphasize that that these conditions, together with the
conditions we will impose below on the dynamics of the framed asset, are strong conditions, and
it is not obvious that they follow from a general equilibrium analysis. We refer to Barberis and
Huang (2009, Appendix A.3) for a formal analysis of a general equilibrium model which support
conditions (i)-(iv), as well as the assumption of log-normally distributed returns for the framed
36
The equilibrium analysis follows two cases, as per the discussion above. The first case is similar
to the one studied by Barberis and Huang (2009) and assumes that the framed asset 3 possesses
For the case with log-normally distributed returns, the equilibrium risk-free rate Rf and the
equity premium E [R3,t ]−Rf are reported in Table 4. The first two panels and three columns simply
replicate Table 4 in Barberis and Huang (2009). First, we find that under all specifications of the
investor’s preferences (with and without probability weighting and for all choices of the parameters
of risk aversion and loss aversion), the equilibrium risk-free rate decreases and the equity premium
increases if the degree of framing is increased. Second, we observe that when adding probability
weighting to the specification of CPT, the equilibrium risk-free rate slightly increases (up to 0.13%)
and the equity premium slightly decreases (up to 0.3%) when loss aversion is 2 or 2.25. In contrast,
when loss aversion is 3, the equilibrium risk-free rate is significantly smaller (up to 0.55% less) and
37
the specification of CPT. These findings are intuitive: when loss aversion is 3, the investor with
probability weighting is more sensitive to the tail of the distribution than the investor without
probability weighting. Consequently, even if returns are positively skewed, when loss aversion and
the degree of narrow framing are high, the investor with probability weighting requires a higher
equity premium to hold the risky asset. In contrast, when loss aversion is 2 or 2.25 the investor with
probability weighting likes positive skewness more than the investor without probability weighting
and is willing to hold the risky asset at a lower premium (see Barberis and Huang 2008b). Note
that skewness is 0.61 in the numerical example of this subsection, i.e., much higher than the 0.47
we had in the numerical example of previous subsection. Therefore, the results of this subsection
do not contradict the results of the previous subsection, where a loss aversion of 2.25 was enough
to observe the investor with probability weighting moving out of the framed stock.
The second case we consider is when the framed asset 3 possesses skew-normally distributed
R3,t+1 ∼ SN (κ1 , κ2 , κ3 )
where κ1 , κ2 and κ3 depend on µ3 , σ3 and ν3 as reported in Equation (18). We also assume that
R3,t+1 is independent from the consumption growth. The assumption about independence between
the returns of the framed asset and consumption growth is mainly for analytical convenience,
38
skew-normal case.
The equilibrium risk-free rate Rf and the equity premium E [R3,t+1 ] − Rf for the case of skew-
normal returns are reported in Table 6. Again, we see that under all specifications of the investor’s
preferences, when the degree of framing is increased, the equilibrium risk-free rate decreases and
the equity premium increases. However, with skew-normal returns and negative skewness for the
framed asset, the effect is much stronger when probability weighting is added to the specification of
CPT. This result is now clear. The investor with probability weighting dislikes negative skewness
much more than the investor without probability weighting and thus asks for a higher premium in
order to hold the framed asset. The difference between the two cases equity premium, i.e., presence
or absence of probability weighting, is large and ranges from 0.5% (low degree of framing and loss
aversion of 2) to more than 3.5% (moderate to high degree of framing and loss aversion of 3). We
point out that in case where the degree of framing and loss aversion are moderate or high, the
addition of probability weighting almost doubles the equity premium for the framed asset. This
result further emphasizes the importance of adding probability weighting into the model of narrow
framing proposed by Barberis and Huang (2009) in order to obtain upper bounds for the equity
39
In this paper we demonstrated how the model with framing suggested by Barberis and Huang
(2009) can be extended to also include probability weighting and a convex-concave value func-
tion in the specification of cumulative prospect theory preferences on narrowly framed assets. We
showed that adding probability weighting does not increase the complexity of the model and an-
alytical tractability is preserved. In contrast, with a convex-concave value function, we loose the
homogeneity property of the model so, we rely on numerical dynamic programming to solve the
model.
In a portfolio choice setting, we showed that when we allow for probability weighting and
a convex-concave value function, narrow framing makes it all less likely that the investor will
participate in the stock market. This result is robust with respect to different specifications of the
return distribution and investors’ preferences. Moreover, the addition of a convex-concave value
function leads to important wealth effects, i.e., narrow framing has a small effect on the portfolio
decision of wealthy investors, while the opposite holds when investors possess a low level of wealth.
In an asset pricing setting, we showed that probability weighting slightly reduces the equity
premium of the framed asset, when skewness is positive and loss aversion is not too high. In
contrast, when either the framed asset displays negative skewness or the degree of loss aversion
is high, the investor with probability weighting demands a significantly higher equity premium
compared to the investor without probability weighting. In the case of negative skewness, the
40
100%.
Appendix A
The necessary and sufficient first-order conditions for the maximization of Problem (1), where µ
has the functional form given in Equation (14) with ρ = 1 − γ, Ut is defined in Equations (5)-(8),
and ζ = 1 (piecewise-linear value function) correspond to
1 − αt −γ/(1−γ)
1/(1−γ)
β
×
1−β αt
n
" #
h i1/(1−γ)
−γ
X
(1 − β)1/(1−γ) Et αt+1 (θt0 Rt+1 )1−γ + b0 |θi,t | Ut (sign(θi,t ) (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )) = 1
i=m+1
−γ 0 γ/(1−γ) −γ 0
ξt − (1 − β)1/(1−γ) Et αt+1 (θt Rt+1 )1−γ (θt Rt+1 )−γ
Et αt+1
= b0 1{i≥m+1} sign(θi,t ) Ut (sign(θi,t ) (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )) θi,t 6= 0,
(19)
∈ b0 1{i≥m+1} Ut ((Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )) , −b0 1{i≥m+1} Ut (−(Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )) θi,t = 0.
41
1 − αt −γ/(1−γ)
1/(1−γ)
β
×
1−β αt
n
" #
h i1/(1−γ)
−γ
X
1/(1−γ) 0 1−γ
(1 − β) Et αt+1 (θt Rt+1 ) + b0 |θi,t | Ut (sign(θi,t ) (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )) = 1.
i=m+1
Let
n
−γ 0 1/(1−γ) X
K(θt ) = (1 − β)1/(1−γ) Et αt+1 (θt Rt+1 )1−γ + b0 |θi,t | Ut (sign(θi,t ) (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z ))
i=m+1
and n
X
G(θt ) = b0 |θi,t | Ut (sign(θi,t ) (Ri,t+1 − Ri,z )) ,
i=m+1
such that
K(θt ) = F (θt ) + G(θt ).
The maximization problem in Equation (13) is equivalent to
" n
#
X
(20) max F (θt ) + G(θt ) + ξt (1 − θi,t )
θt
i=1
where ξt is the Lagrange multiplier for the constraint ni=1 θi,t = 1. Note that F and G are both
P
strictly concave in θt and thus a local maximum in Problem (20) is also a global maximum. The
first order conditions are necessary and sufficient for optimality and correspond to:
∂F (θt ) ∂G(θt )
+ − ξt = 0 for θi,t 6= 0
∂θi,t ∂θi,t
and
∂F (θt ) ∂G(θt )
∂θi,t
+ +
∂θi,t
− ξt ≤ 0,
∂F (θt ) ∂G(θt )
∂θi,t
+ −
∂θi,t
− ξt ≥ 0,
for θi,t = 0. After computing the partial derivatives for F and G, Equation (19) follows.
42
We report on the accuracy of the numerical approach presented in Section 3 to solve the model
with narrow framing, when a convex-concave value function is added to the specification of CPT
preferences on framed assets. We compute the optimal allocation to the framed asset 3 in the
simple consumption-portfolio problem of Section 4. We only consider the case with a piecewise-
linear value function (with and without probability weighting), since for this case we can also
apply the quasi-analytical approach discussed in Section 2 and this will be used as a benchmark
to asses the accuracy of our numerical methodology. We only report the results for skew-normally
distributed returns; the results for log-normally distributed returns are similar. Table 7 shows the
framed asset 3, as a function of the degree of narrow framing b0 for two different values of risk
aversion γ. Columns 2 and 4 (BH) are computed using the quasi-analytical approach discussed in
Section 2, while columns 3 and 5 (Bellman) are obtained using the numerical approach presented
in Section 3. The difference between the two sets of results ranges from -0.1% to 0.4%, confirming
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47
Table 1: Parameters for the model with narrow framing, and the assets’ returns distributions.
48
Table 2: The table displays the percentage θ3 /(1 − θ2 ) of remaining post-consumption wealth
allocated to the narrowly framed asset 3, as a function of the degree of narrow framing b0 for
different values of risk aversion γ: γ = 2 (top-panel), γ = 5 (middle panel) and γ = 8 (bottom
panel). We assume two different distributional assumptions for the returns of the risky assets: log-
normal (columns 2 and 3) and skew-normal (columns 4, 5 and 6); three different specifications of the
CPT value function: piecewise-linear v̄ and no probability weighting (PL+NoPW, columns 2 and
4), piecewise-linear v̄ and probability weighting (PL+PW, columns 3 and 5), convex-concave v̄ and
probability weighting (CC+PW, column 6). In all cases the parameter of loss aversion corresponds
to λ = 2.25.
49
Table 3: Parameter specification for the equilibrium analysis under the assumption that the framed
asset possesses log-normally distributed returns: gC and σC are mean and standard deviation,
respectively, for the log consumption growth, ρ is the correlation between log-consumption growth
and log-returns of asset 3, and σ3 is the standard deviation of asset 3’s log-returns.
50
Table 4: The table shows equilibrium risk-free rate Rf − 1 and equity premium (EP) E [R3,t+1 ] − Rf
for the framed asset, as function of risk aversion γ, loss aversion λ and degree of narrow framing
b0 . CPT is specified using a piecewise-linear value function (ζ = 1 in Equation (4)) and without
probability weighting (columns 2 and 3) and with probability weighting (columns 4,5). Asset
3 possesses log-normally distributed returns with standard deviation σ2 = 0.3, and correlation
ρ = 0.1 with log consumption growth.
51
Table 5: Parameter specification for the equilibrium analysis under the assumption that the framed
asset possesses skew-normally distributed returns: gC and σC are mean and standard deviation,
respectively, for the log consumption growth, σ3 and ν3 are standard deviation and skewness,
respectively, of asset 3’s returns.
52
Table 6: The table shows equilibrium risk-free rate Rf − 1 and equity premium (EP) E [R3,t+1 ] − Rf
for the framed asset, as function of risk aversion γ, loss aversion λ and degree of narrow framing b0 .
CPT is specified using a piecewise-linear value function (ζ = 1 in Equation (4)) without probability
weighting (columns 2 and 3) and with probability weighting (columns 4,5). Asset 3 possesses skew-
normally distributed returns with standard deviation σ2 = 15.8%, skewness ν = −0.339, and
correlation 0 with log consumption growth.
53
Table 7: The table displays the percentage θ3 /(1 − θ2 ) of remaining post-consumption wealth al-
located to the narrowly framed asset 3, as a function of the degree of narrow framing b0 for two
different values of risk aversion γ: γ = 5 (top-panel) and γ = 8 (bottom panel); two different spec-
ifications of the CPT value function: piecewise-linear v̄ and no probability weighting (PL+NoPW,
columns 2 and 3), piecewise-linear v̄ and probability weighting (PL+PW, columns 4 and 5). In
all cases the parameter of loss aversion corresponds to λ = 2.25. The values have been computed
using two different approaches: the quasi-analytical approach (BH, columns 2 and 4) discussed in
Section 2 and the numerical approach (Bellman, columns 3 and 5) presented in Section 3. Assets’
returns are assumed to be identically distributed, with skew-normal distribution with mean 7.6%,
standard deviation 15.8%, skew -0.339, and have a Gaussian copula with correlation parameter
ω = 0.1.
54
80
θ3 60
____ %
1 - θ2 40
20
02
3 0
4
0.05
5
0.1
γ 6
7 0.15 b0
8 0.2
Figure 1: The figure shows the percentage θ3 /(1 − θ2 ) of remaining post-consumption wealth
allocated to the narrowly framed asset 3, as a function of risk aversion γ and of the degree of narrow
framing b0 . CPT is specified using a piecewise-linear value function (i.e., ζ = 1 in Equation (4)) with
parameter of loss aversion λ = 2.25, and no probability weighting (i.e., δ + = δ − = 1 in Equations (7)
and (8), respectively). Assets’ returns are assumed to be identically distributed, with log-normal
distribution with mean 7.6% and standard deviation 17.0%, and have linear correlation parameter
ω = 0.1.
55
80
60
θ3
____ %
1 - θ2
40
20
b0 = 0.0
b0 = 0.05
b0 = 0.1
b0 = 0.2
0
0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38
Sharpe ratio
Figure 2: The figure shows the percentage θ3 /(1 − θ2 ) of remaining post-consumption wealth
allocated to the narrowly framed asset 3, as a function of the Sharpe ratio for γ = 5 and several
degrees of narrow framing b0 . CPT is specified using a piecewise-linear value function (ζ = 1
in Equation (4)) with parameter of loss aversion λ = 2.25 and no probability weighting functions
(i.e., δ + = 1 and δ − = 1 in Equations (7) and (8), respectively). Assets’ returns are assumed to
be identically distributed, with a log-normal distribution with mean 7.6% and standard deviation
17.0%, and have linear correlation parameter ω = 0.1.
56
0.02
CPT value
Ut
-0.02
-0.04
NoPW PL
PW PL
PW CC
-0.06
1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Loss Aversion λ
Figure 3: CPT value Ut (see Equation (1)) of the framed asset as function of the degree of loss
aversion λ. We assume three different specifications of the CPT value function: piecewise-linear
v̄ and no probability weighting (NoPW PL, full line), piecewise-linear v̄ and probability weighting
(PW PL, dashed line), convex-concave v̄ and probability weighting (PW CC, dotted line). The
framed asset is assumed to be log-normally distribution with mean 7.6% and standard deviation
17.0%.
57
80
θ3 60
____ %
1 - θ2 40
20
02
3 0
4
0.05
5
0.1
γ 6
7 0.15 b0
8 0.2
Figure 4: The figure shows the percentage θ3 /(1 − θ2 ) of remaining post-consumption wealth
allocated to the narrowly framed asset 3, as a function of risk aversion γ and of the degree of
narrow framing b0 . CPT is specified using a piecewise-linear value function (ζ = 1 in Equation (4))
with parameter of loss aversion λ = 2.25 and probability weighting functions with parameters
δ + = 0.61 and δ − = 0.69 in Equations (7) and (8), respectively. Assets’ returns are assumed to
be identically distributed, with a log-normal distribution with mean 7.6% and standard deviation
17.0%, and have linear correlation parameter ω = 0.1.
58
80
60
θ3
____ %
1 - θ2
40
20
b0 = 0.0
b0 = 0.05
b0 = 0.1
b0 = 0.2
0
0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38
Sharpe ratio
Figure 5: The figure shows the percentage θ3 /(1 − θ2 ) of remaining post-consumption wealth
allocated to the narrowly framed asset 3, as a function of the Sharpe ratio for γ = 5 and several
degrees of narrow framing b0 . CPT is specified using a piecewise-linear value function (ζ = 1
in Equation (4)) with parameter of loss aversion λ = 2.25 and no probability weighting functions
(i.e., δ + = 1 and δ − = 1 in Equations (7) and (8), respectively). Assets’ returns are assumed to
be identically distributed, with a log-normal distribution with mean 7.6% and standard deviation
17.0%, and have linear correlation parameter ω = 0.1.
59
60
80
θ3 60
____ %
1 - θ2 40
20
02
3 0
4
0.05
5
0.1
γ 6
7 0.15 b0
8 0.2
Figure 7: The figure shows the percentage θ3 /(1 − θ2 ) of remaining post-consumption wealth
allocated to the narrowly framed asset 3, as a function of risk aversion γ and of the degree of
narrow framing b0 . CPT is specified using a piecewise-linear value function (ζ = 1 in Equation (4))
with parameter of loss aversion λ = 2.25 and no probability weighting functions (i.e., δ + = δ − = 1
in Equations (7) and (8), respectively). Assets’ returns are assumed to be identically distributed,
with skew-normal distribution with mean 7.6%, standard deviation 15.8%, skew -0.339, and have
a Gaussian copula with correlation parameter ω = 0.1.
61
0.02
CPT value
Ut
-0.02
-0.04
NoPW PL
PW PL
PW CC
-0.06
1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Loss Aversion λ
Figure 8: CPT value Ut (see Equation (1)) of the framed asset as function of the degree of loss
aversion λ. We assume three different specifications of the CPT value function: piecewise-linear
v̄ and no probability weighting (NoPW PL, full line), piecewise-linear v̄ and probability weighting
(PW PL, dashed line), convex-concave v̄ and probability weighting (PW CC, dotted line). The
framed asset is assumed to be skew-normally distributed with mean 7.6%, standard deviation
15.8%, and skew -0.339.
62
80
θ3 60
____ %
1 - θ2 40
20
02
3 0
4
0.05
5
0.1
γ 6
7 0.15 b0
8 0.2
Figure 9: The figure shows the percentage θ3 /(1 − θ2 ) of remaining post-consumption wealth
allocated to the narrowly framed asset 3, as a function of risk aversion γ and of the degree of
narrow framing b0 . CPT is specified using a piecewise-linear value function (ζ = 1 in Equation (4))
with parameter of loss aversion λ = 2.25 and probability weighting functions with parameters
δ + = 0.61 and δ − = 0.69 in Equations (7) and (8), respectively. Assets’ returns are assumed to be
identically distributed, with skew-normal distribution with mean 7.6%, standard deviation 15.8%,
skew -0.339, and have a Gaussian copula with correlation parameter ω = 0.1.
63
80
θ3 60
____ %
1 - θ2 40
20
02
3 0
4
0.05
5
0.1
γ 6
7 0.15 b0
8 0.2
Figure 10: The figure shows the percentage θ3 /(1 − θ2 ) of remaining post-consumption wealth
allocated to the narrowly framed asset 3, as a function of risk aversion γ and of the degree of
narrow framing b0 . CPT is specified using a convex-concave value function with parameter ζ = 0.88
in Equation (4), parameter of loss aversion λ = 2.25, and probability weighting functions with
parameters δ + = 0.61 and δ − = 0.69 in Equations (7) and (8), respectively. Initial wealth is
W0 = $100, 000. Assets’ returns are assumed to be identically distributed, with skew-normal
distribution with mean 7.6%, standard deviation 15.8%, skew -0.339, and have a Gaussian copula
with correlation parameter ω = 0.1.
64