Axis Technical Muhurat Picks 2023

Samvat 2080
Diwali Muhurat Technical Picks: Underlying Strategy

In Samvat 2078, the market experienced a period of heightened volatility.

However, it later found stability and embarked on a bullish trajectory in Samvat
2079. During this time, both Nifty and Sensex achieved remarkable milestones,
reaching unprecedented highs of 20,222 and 67,927, respectively. Additionally,
BSE Midcap and BSE Small Cap indices posted impressive gains of 15% and
32%, respectively.

Remarkably, despite global challenges like escalating interest rates, bond yields,
and geopolitical tensions, India demonstrated resilience. The economic
slowdown in China further heightened India's appeal as an investment
destination. This was complemented by a surge in domestic investors along with
an increase in demat accounts, mutual fund folios, and monthly SIP figures.

Looking ahead to Samvat 2080, we anticipate a mixed market bias. Despite

Nifty's recent dip from all-time highs, strong support is expected around 18500-
18000 levels. This presents an opportunity for investors to acquire quality stocks.
The success in Mid and Smallcap counters in Samvat 2079 indicates potential in
BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indices, which are expected to find major
support around 29500-28300 levels. Investors are advised to focus on quality Mid
and Smallcap stocks with medium to long-term horizons within these levels,
ensuring a strategic approach amidst market fluctuations.

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Diwali Muhurat Technical Picks: Underlying Strategy

For Diwali Muhurat trading picks, our strategy focuses on meticulously selected
stocks displaying strong breakout patterns and robust accumulation trends
breakout. The curated Diwali portfolio includes a blend of Large and Midcap
stocks showcasing promising chart patterns. We anticipate this portfolio to
outperform the market in Samvat 2080

Given the uncertain global landscape, we anticipate Indian-centric themes to

flourish in the upcoming Samvat. Accordingly, our bullish stance persists on
sectors including Auto, Capital Goods, and Consumer Durables, reflecting our
confidence in their growth potential

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 Diwali Muhurat Technical Picks Returns
60 54.00%
50
40.00%
40
30 25.00%
22.00%
18.00% 18.00%
20 12.00%
8.30% 7.00%
10
0
-10 -3.00%
Muhurat Picks Muhurat Picks Muhurat Picks Muhurat Picks Muhurat Picks
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Last Year Returns of Diwali Technical Picks Nifty Returns

Our recommended Portfolio of stocks for Diwali in previous year s have given returns of 25% in 2018-19,
18% in 2019-20, 54% in 2020-21, 18% in 2021-22 and 22% in 2022-2023. Whereas, Nifty has given returns of 8.3% in 2018-19, 12%
in 2019-20, 40% in 2020-21, -3% in 2021-22 and 7% in 2022-2023. ( return from 24Oct, 2022 tiill 31Oct,2023)

Technical stocks recommended last Diwali (Samvat 2079) – AMBUJACEM, CIPLA, EICHERMOT, FEDERALBANK, GE SHIPPING,
GODFRYPHILIP, LTI, RITES, TATASTEEL, TWL, VOLTAMP – reached their mentioned targets, delivering impressive returns ranging
from 15% to 40%.

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 Through a comprehensive analysis Analyzing Sector Rotation using RRG Graph
utilizing the Relative Rotation Graph
(RRG) methodology, it is observed that
the BSE Capital Goods index, along
with the Auto, Realty, and FMCG
sectors, is positioned in the 'Leading
Quadrant,' signifying robust positive
momentum and potential
outperformance.

 BSE IT and Healthcare sectors have

entered the 'Improving Quadrant,'
suggesting potential future
performance.

 Sector likes BSE Telecom, Metal and

Consumer Durable are at the verge of
getting into ‘Improving Quadrant’.

 BSE Oil and Gas is currently positioned

in the 'Lagging Quadrant,' indicating
potential underperformance in the near
term.
Data source: Bloomberg
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 Sensex demonstrated robust Sensex vs Global Indexes: Market Performance Comparison
performance, yielding a commendable
return of 6.53% from the last Diwali
Mahurat session on October 24, 2022,
to October 31, 2023.

 In the same period, US index Dow

Jones delivered a flat return of 0.58%,
while S&P 500 yielded a return of 7.5%.
In contrast, the technology-heavy
Nasdaq index delivered an impressive
return of 25%.

 Other global markets also performed

impressively during the same period,
with Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Euro
Stoxx Index delivering returns of 15%,
14%, and 8.4% respectively.

 Global markets showcased impressive

performance, outpacing Sensex
significantly, except for the Dow Jones
Index.
Data source: Bloomberg
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 Sensex vs Other Assets
 Gold emerged as the top-performing
asset class, delivering an impressive
return of 20% from the last Diwali
Mahurat session on October 24, 2022,
to October 31, 2023.

 Silver, as another commodity, delivered

a notable return of 18% during the
same period.

 Brent Crude and USD/INR exhibited

marginal gains of 3% and 1%
respectively, while the US Dollar Index
experienced a 3% decline during the
specified period.

 Sensex able to outperform most of the

other assets class expect Gold and
Silver.

Data source: Bloomberg 01

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MediumTerm Stock Picks
(Up to 1 year)

BBTC Ltd CDSL Ltd Credit Access Grameen Ltd

Potential Potential Potential
CMP Target CMP Target CMP Target
Upside (%) Upside (%) Upside (%)

1404 1985 53% 1562 1850 34% 1667 2000 36%

DLF Ltd GMDC Ltd Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd

Potential Potential Potential
CMP Target CMP Target CMP Target
Upside (%) Upside (%) Upside (%)

593 705 34% 325 430 49% 511 575 40%

PCBL Ltd Tata Motors Ltd Torrent Power Ltd

Potential Potential Potential
CMP Target CMP Target CMP Target
Upside (%) Upside (%) Upside (%)

197 265 47% 647 785 37% 744 885 35%

Triveni Engineering Ltd United Spirits Ltd Varroc Engineering Ltd

Potential Potential Potential
CMP Target CMP Target CMP Target
Upside (%) Upside (%) Upside (%)

362 480 43% 1071 1300 33% 467 595 42%

Note: CMP as 3rd Nov, 2023

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We suggest buying and accumulating the stocks for SAMVAT 2080 in mentioned range for potential upside of 34% - 53%.

BUY BUY Target Target

STOCK CMP Upside
First Second First Second

Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd 1350 1250 1404 1700 1985 53%

Central Depository Services (India) 1410 1350 1562 1700 1850 34%

Credit Access Grameen Ltd 1510 1430 1667 1780 2000 36%

DLF Ltd 550 500 593 632 705 34%

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd 300 275 325 385 400 49%

Kolte-Patil Developers 430 390 511 530 575 40%

United Spirits Ltd 1000 950 1071 1160 1300 33%

PCBL Ltd 185 175 197 215 265 47%

Tata Motors Ltd 600 550 647 707 785 37%

Torrent Power Ltd 680 630 744 800 885 35%

Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd 350 320 362 440 480 43%

Varroc Engineering Ltd 440 400 467 550 595 42%

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 BBTC, on a quarterly chart, was in a Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd
consolidation phase within a
CMP:1404 Buy Range:1350-1250 Support zone: 1300-1150 Upside: 31-53%
"Descending Triangular" pattern and
recently broke out above the pattern at
1240, suggesting a potential bullish
move..

 The stock is poised to sustain its long-

term uptrend following a decisive
breakout after a five-year period of
extensive consolidation, indicating
strong potential for future growth.

 Volume diminished during pattern

formation and surged significantly at the
breakout, indicating heightened market
participation.

 The monthly and quarterly RSI is in

bullish mode and above 50 mark.

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 1700-1985 levels.

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 In September 2023, CDSL exhibited a Central Depository Services (India) Ltd
significant breakout above a
CMP:1562 Buy Range: 1410-1350 Support zone: 1250-1100 Upside: 23-34%
descending channel on the quarterly
chart, marked by a robust bullish
candle, suggesting a continuation of its
long-term uptrend in the stock.

 The stock found substantial support at

the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of
the rally from 180 to 1734, placed at
953, establishing a medium-term
support base at this crucial level.

 Volume dropped within the falling

channel and spiked at the breakout,
indicating positive bias..

 A quarterly bullish crossover in the

MACD indicator signifies a positive
momentum shift in the market

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 1700-1850.

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 CREDITACC Ltd, on a monthly chart, Credit Access Grameen Ltd
broke above the swing high of 1200,
CMP:1667 Buy Range:1510-1430 Support zone: 1350-1250 Upside: 21-36%
rallying to 1500, and retraced with a
strong bullish candle, indicating a
positive bias.

 The stock's formation of higher highs

and lows on a monthly chart, along with
holding above an upward sloping
trendline, signals a strong and
sustained bullish trend.

 Increased volumes during breakout and

bounce-back monthly candle signify
heightened participation, indicating
strong interest and potential momentum

 The monthly and quarterly RSI is in

bullish mode and above 50 mark
indicating further strength

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 1780-2000 levels.

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 On the quarterly chart, DLF DLF Ltd
convincingly broke out above the
CMP: 593 Buy Range: 550-500 Support zone: 480-450 Upside: 20-34%
"Inverted Head and Shoulder" pattern,
indicating a significant trend reversal.

 The breakout is confirmed by a strong

bullish candle, suggesting expectations
of positive momentum in the stock.

 On the weekly timeframe, the stock

exhibits strength as it trades above the
key medium-term averages (50, 100,
and 200-week SMA), indicating a
robust outlook for the medium to long
term.

 The monthly and quarterly RSI in

bullish mode, above the 50 mark,
signals further strength in the market

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 632-705 levels.

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 GMDC has decisively broken above the Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd
previous all-time high of 261, set in late
CMP: 325 Buy Range: 300-275 Support zone: 270-220 Upside: 34-50%
2007, with a strong bullish candle,
indicating a positive bias.

 The stock's formation of higher highs

and lows on a monthly chart signals a
strong and sustained bullish trend.

 Elevated volumes accompanying the

breakout monthly candle signify
increased participation, highlighting
strong interest and potential
momentum.

 The monthly and quarterly RSI is in

above its reference line indicating
positive bias.

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 385-430 levels.

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 On the Monthly chart, KOLTEPATIL Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd
broke above the 'Rounded Bottom'
CMP: 511 Buy Range: 430-390 Support zone: 380-350 Upside: 29-40%
formation at the 400 level with a robust
bullish candle, signaling an uptrend
following a period of consolidation..

 The formation of higher high-low

patterns indicates a medium-term
uptrend in progress..

 A stock closing above the upper

Bollinger band on the monthly chart
generates a buy signal, suggesting the
potential onset of bullish momentum..

 The monthly and quarterly Relative

Strength Index (RSI) positioned above
its reference line signifies a positive
bias in the market sentiment.

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 530-575 levels.

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 On the monthly chart, PCBL broke PCBL Ltd
above the 'Multiple Resistance' zone at
CMP:197 Buy Range: 185-175 Support zone: 160-150 Upside: 19-47%
160 with a strong candle, indicating the
continuation of the uptrend.

 The previous resistance at 160 is

expected to act as a support level,
following the principle of change of
polarity in technical analysis.

 Over the past couple of months, the

stock has experienced a noticeable
increase in volume, providing support
for the positive momentum in the stock.

 The monthly and quarterly Relative

Strength Index (RSI) positioned above
its reference line signifies a positive
bias in the stock sentiment.

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 215-265 levels.

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 TATAMOTORS exhibits a significant Tata Motors Ltd
breakout above the multi-year
CMP: 647 Buy Range: 600-550 Support zone: 530-500 Upside: 23-37%
resistance zone at the 550 level,
signaling the initiation of a long-term
uptrend in the market

 Multi-year resistance at 550 can

potentially act as a major support due
to the principle of "change in polarity“.

 The stock's movement within a rising

channel, taking support at the lower
band, and heading towards the upper
band suggests a bullish trend.

 The monthly and quarterly RSI is in

bullish mode and above 50 mark
indicating further strength

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 707-785 levels.

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 TORNTPOWER on a quarterly chart Torrent Power Ltd
broke above the swing high 370 in
CMP: 744 Buy Range:680-630 Support zone: 600-570 Upside: 22-35%
March 2021, ending a decade-long
consolidation phase.

 Following the breakout, the stock

consolidated between 605-430 range,
and in June 2023, it broke above the
pattern, indicating positive momentum
post-breakout.

 Stock closing above the upper Bollinger

band on the monthly chart generates a
buy signal, indicating potential bullish
momentum.

 The monthly and quarterly RSI is in

bullish mode and above 50 mark
indicating further strength

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 800-885 levels.

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 TRIVENI, on the quarterly chart, Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd
experienced a sharp rally followed by a
CMP: 362 Buy Range: 350-320 Support zone: 315-280 Upside: 31-43%
consolidation in the form of a
"Pennants" formation at 300 level.
Breaking above this pattern, the stock
is poised to continue its uptrend.

 Volume significantly decreased during

the pattern formation, and there was a
notable increase in volume activity at
the breakout, indicating a potential price
momentum.

 The stock's position above the medium-

term 200-day Simple Moving Average
(SMA) indicating uptrend.

 The quarterly MACD is in bullish mode

indicating positive momentum in the
stock.

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 440-480 levels.

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 MCDOWELL-N breached a United Spirits Ltd
“Symmetrical Triangular” pattern on a
CMP:1071 Buy Range: 1000-950 Support zone: 900-870 Upside: 19-33%
quarterly chart in September 2021,
indicating a significant market
development.

 Following the breakout, MCDOWELL-N

consolidated above the upper band of
the triangular pattern, forming a ‘Bullish
Flag” pattern, and broke above it in
September 2023, signifying a
continuation of the uptrend.

 Breakout witnessed higher volumes,

indicating increased participation and
market interest.

 The quarterly RSI is in above its

reference line indicating positive bias

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 1160-1300 levels.

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 VARROC breaking above the medium- Varroc Engineering Ltd
term downward sloping trendline at 380
CMP: 467 Buy Range: 440-400 Support zone: 360-340 Upside: 31-42%
suggests a potential uptrend in the
stock.

 The stock breaking above the

consolidation zone of 440-250 range in
mid-2023 indicates a significant
breakout, suggesting strong upside
momentum in the stock.

 The stock's position above the medium-

term 200-day Simple Moving Average
(SMA) signifies a sustained uptrend,
reflecting positive market sentiment in
the medium term

 The quarterly MACD showing a bullish

crossover suggests a positive
momentum shift.

 The above analysis indicate an upside

of 550-595 levels.

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Disclosures:

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

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Sr. No Name Designation E-mail

1 Rajesh Palviya SVP Research (Head Technical & Derivatives) rajesh.palviya@axissecurities.in

2 Vaishnavi Jagtap Technical Analyst vaishnavi.jagtap@axissecurities.in

3 Rayyan Kuwari Technical Analyst rayyan.kuwari@axissecurities.in

4 Hemang Gor Derivative Analyst hemang.gor@axissecurities.in

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Thank you!